The October 2016 unemployment report shows yet more monthly distorted unemployment figures. The unemployment rate ticked down by -0.1% to 4.9% as almost half a million, 425 thousand more, were considered no longer part of the labor force. Those employed dropped by -43,000 and those unemployed declined by -152,000. Both the labor participation rate and the civilian to employment ratio ticked down a tenth of a percentage point.
The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report shows factory new orders increased by 0.3% for September. That's after August new orders rose by 0.4%. Durable goods new orders by themselves was revised down to -0.3% for September, but increased 0.2% in August. Transportation new orders were the worse, with a -1.1% decline.
Rare recently published this article by Daniel McCarthy, Editor of The American Conservative (TAC) magazine. It is a thoughtful defense of a vote for Trump that I largely agree with. I will not say I’m completely surprised. I could have seen McCarthy going either way. I will say that I am pleased.
ADP's proprietary private payrolls jobs report gives a monthly gain of 147,000 private sector jobs for October 2016. The reason was a loss of 15,000 construction jobs as well as manufacturing and education. September's ADP report was revised upward significantly, from 154,000 to 202,000. Overall, it is possible this report indicates the pace of job growth is slowing, rarely a good thing.
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