california

Initial Unemployment Claims at Levels Not Seen Since 1973

The DOL reported people filing for initial unemployment insurance benefits in the week ending on July 18th, 2015 was 255,000, a 26,000 decrease from the previous week of 281,000.  The DOL proclaims this is the largest drop since November 24th, 1973, when initial claims was 233,000.  The DOL also states this is no statistical anomaly.  Graphed below is initial claims.

 

Initial Unemployment Claims Gone Wild

The DOL reported people filing for initial unemployment insurance benefits in the week ending on December 21th, 2013 was 338,000, a 42,000 decrease from the previous week of 373,000.  Many headlines proclaim this is the largest drop since November 2012, yet what the press does not mention is that very time period in 2012 also had wild, whacky statistical swings.

What's Going On With Initial Unemployment Claims?

The DOL reported people filing for initial unemployment insurance benefits in the week ending on October 12th, 2013 was 358,000, a 15,000 decrease from the previous week of 373,000.  The problem is these figures are really out of whack and we have one state to blame, California. We've seen strange soarings in initial claims before yet this was unexpected to occur again.

California gets an A- from S&P

California gets an A-! No, that's not some achievement score. An A- is actually a credit downgrade from Standard and Poor's:

California’s credit rating on $64 billion of general obligation bonds was cut by Standard & Poor’s today as the most-populous U.S. state faces renewed strains over a $20 billion budget deficit.

Gabriel Petek, a San Francisco-based S&P analyst, said the rating was lowered one level to A-, the seventh-highest investment grade. He said the company has a negative outlook on California debt, a sign its standing may decline further. The rating company also cut $13.3 billion of other state debt, including that backed by lease payments.

It's been over two months since California's last budget crisis, time for a new one

Just a mere 10 weeks from the last budget crisis, California Budget Is Already in the Red:

Revenue in the three months ended Sept. 30 was 5.3 percent less than assumed in the $85 billion annual budget, state controller John Chiang reported yesterday. Income tax receipts led the gap, as unemployment reached 12.2 percent in August.

California has a $1.1 Billion drop in taxes, with a state official unemployment rate of 12.2% and one of the worst property devaluations in the country.

Manfrommiddletown already warned decreasing tax revenues will cause state budget crises in California's screwed.

Dsyfunctional California

The Economist has an in depth article on why California is so dysfunctional

ON MAY 19th Californians will go to the polls to vote on six ballot measures that are as important as they are confusing. If these measures fail, America’s biggest state will enter a full-blown financial crisis that will require excruciating cuts in public services. If the measures succeed, the crisis will be only a little less acute. Recent polls suggest that voters are planning to vote most of them down.