The U.S. December 2012 monthly trade deficit imploded by -20.7% to $38.54 billion. This is the lowest monthly trade deficit since January 2010 when global trade was still affected by the recession. We estimate Q4 GDP will be revised significantly upward as a result.
Q4 2012 real GDP contracted by -0.1%. Inventory investment nose dived, but was not the lone culprit for economic contraction. Exports plunged and took -0.81 real GDP percentage points along with it. Government spending cliff dove and hacked off -1.33 percentage points from 4th quarter gross domestic product as Federal Defense spending declined 22.2% from Q3.
Q3 2012 real GDP shows 3.1% annualized growth, revised from 2.7% in the second estimate. Consumer spending increased more than previously estimated, exports were greater and imports were much less. Q2 GDP was 1.25% in actuality, 1.3% is a rounded figure.
Q3 2012 real GDP shows 2.7% annualized growth, revised from 2.0% in the advance report. There was a significant upward revision to inventories, yet consumer spending was revised down. Exports were revised up as trade statistics became more complete. Q2 GDP was 1.25%.
Q2 2012 real GDP now shows 1.25% annualized growth after revisions. The advance second quarter GDP estimate was 1.5%, whereas the second revision reported 1.7% GDP growth. The BEA rounds their final GDP numbers, so the actual GDP reported was 1.3%. When we're grabbing economic crumbs, 0.05 percentage points makes a difference.
What the Q2 GDP third estimate shows is a barely breathing economy. Businesses shed inventories, consumers spent way less, a dramatic swing from the Q2 GDP advance report and investment generally is down from the 1st quarter. Shedding inventories can be a recession indicator. Durable goods spending literally vanished in Q2, also a recession indicator. The drought showed up in Q2 GDP, negatively impacting farm inventories and potentially other GDP components indirectly.
With the release of Q2 2012 GDP, we had a slew of shocking revisions, going back all the way to Q1, 2009. How can this be? How can gross domestic product be wrong, three years after the fact? Below is the original GDP reported (blue) and the new with revisions (red).
Q2 2012 real GDP showed 1.5% annualized growth. in the advance release. Q1 2012 GDP was revised up, from 1.9% to 2.0%. This article overviews and graphs the BEA statistical release for second quarter gross domestic product.
June 2012 Retail Sales decreased, by -0.5%, and this month one cannot blame just falling gas prices. Autos & Parts alone dropped -0.6% while auto dealers, part of Autos & Parts, declined -0.7%. Minus autos & parts, retail sales also decreased, -0.4%. This is the 3rd month in a row retail sales have declined. June Retail sales are up 3.8% from the same time last year.
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