A Decade of Lost Jobs

The Washington Post shows the United States has not had any job growth for a decade. In Aughts were a lost decade for U.S. economy, workers:

unenmployment decade

There has been zero net job creation since December 1999. No previous decade going back to the 1940s had job growth of less than 20 percent. Economic output rose at its slowest rate of any decade since the 1930s as well.

Not only was there no job growth, middle incomes shrank and retirement funds shrank.

Economists Predict a Decade of High Unemployment for United States

If you are enjoying your holiday and hoping the next decade is way better than this one....stop reading now and go party. Trust me, this post will be here when you have a nice hangover on January 1st.

For the rest of folk, the Canadian Press, Even as the US economy recovers, a decade of joblessness and flat wages could lie ahead is a real bummer.

The decade ahead could be a brutal one for America's unemployed - and for people with jobs hoping for pay raises.

At best, it could take until the middle of the decade for the nation to generate enough jobs to drive down the unemployment rate to a normal 5 or 6 per cent and keep it there. At worst, that won't happen until much later - perhaps not until the next decade.

The deepest and most enduring recession since the 1930s has battered America's work force.

Unemployment 10% for November 2009

Finally a bit of good news, or it assuredly could have been worse news. The Novemeber Unemployment report from the BLS is out and the rate dropped to 10%, from 10.2% last month.

The unemployment rate edged down to 10.0 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-11,000)

Oops, wait a second, the total number of jobs is unchanged or lowered by -11,000 jobs? Where did the 0.2% of the unemployed go then?

Further in the report we find:

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) rose by 293,000 to 5.9 million. The percentage of unemployed persons jobless for 27 weeks or more increased by 2.7 percentage points to 38.3 percent.

So, why did the unemployment rate drop?

Goldman Sachs Economic Forecast unemployment peaking in 2011

Yes, not 2010, that's 2011, according to an economic forecast by Goldman Sachs.

On James Pethokoukis Reuter's blog, is Goldman Sachs 2011 forecast would be an absolute disaster for Dems. Contained within are leaked Goldman Sachs economic predictions:

The key features of our 2011 outlook:

  1. a strengthening in growth from 2.1% on average in 2010 to 2.4% in 2011, with real GDP rising at an above-potential 3½% pace in late 2011
  2. A peaking in unemployment in mid-2011 at about 10.75%
  3. extremely low inflation – close to zero on a core basis during 2011
  4. a continuation of the Fed’s (near) zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) throughout 2011.

Recovery? Economic Growth? My Ass!!

The excellent blog, My Budget 360, has a very interesting and important article today entitled 10 States with Underemployment Rates of 20+ Percent. Manufacturing Sector Employs Same Number of Workers that we did in 1940. It is a hard hitting piece that amplifies concerns raised here on many occasions regarding the ill-effects of globalization. And they have some nice, powerful graphs in support of their arguments.

For instance, on the underemployment issue, consider this data:

One thing that is clear is the employment situation is in a major funk. 10 states now have underemployment rates of over 20 percent. We are talking about Great Depression statistics here:

state unemployement

Dr. Doom - The Worse is Yet to Come on Unemployment

The calls for a direct jobs program are growing. Nouriel Roubini has written The Worst is yet to Come: Unemployed Americans Should Hunker Down for More Job Losses.

Based on my best judgment, it is most likely that the unemployment rate will peak close to 11% and will remain at a very high level for two years or more.

Some economists are predicting a unemployment rate peak of 13%.

Roubini is calling for bold action.

There's really just one hope for our leaders to turn things around: a bold prescription that increases the fiscal stimulus with another round of labor-intensive, shovel-ready infrastructure projects, helps fiscally strapped state and local governments and provides a temporary tax credit to the private sector to hire more workers.

EPI report on the long term consequences of unemployment

There is a new Economic Policy Institute report, h/t'ed by Paul Krugman, on the long term negative consequences of recession and unemployment. I have attached the report, A Economic Scarring: The long-term impacts of the recession by John Irons, to this post.

Here are the highlights:

  • Educational achievement: Unemployment and income losses can reduce educational achievement by threatening early childhood nutrition; reducing families’ abilities to provide a supportive learning environment (including adequate health care, summer activities, and stable housing); and by forcing a delay or abandonment of college plans.

Hedge Funds attacked 1,000 Companies and Destroyed 1,200,000 Jobs

Some breakthrough work on the impact hedge funds have had on the real economy was posted this evening on DailyKos by vets74: 1,000 Companies Attacked -> 1,200,000 Jobs Destroyed

These attacks combine corrupt MSM lie campaigns with market dumps of "naked shorts" and counterfeit "phantom stock."