The National Bureau of Economic Research, the organization which dates recessions, cannot declare the end date of this recession, according to the New York Times.
The committee plans to announce on Monday that it cannot yet declare an end to the recession that began in December 2007, several members indicated on Sunday.
The green shooters assuredly will be taking their Prozac with this news.
The Wall Street Journal:
A committee of economists at the nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research, arbiter of when U.S. recessions begin and end, plans to issue a statement Monday with its latest assessment of the economic downturn that began in December 2007.
Members of the Business Cycle Dating Committee, which met last week, wouldn't say if the announcement would declare the recession over or simply lay out its interpretation of the latest turn in the economy after nonfarm payrolls rose in March.
The main concern is the possibility of a second contraction, known as a double dip, later in the year. Anyone reading this site knows the many economic indicators, which determine the NBER's dating, have been at best, a mixed bag, with job creation and employment not just lagging, but DOA.
A depression is defined as a prolonged recession, typically 3 years but can be recatagorized when a recession extends past 2 years. The start of this recession is December 2007. The undeclared end date of this recession in July 2009. If July 2009 is the declared end date, that would make this recession 19 months long.
The fact NBER isn't willing to declare it so, validates what we have been seeing in the various economic indicator reports discussed on this site.