August 2008

This is socialism for Wall Street and the rich!

The title is a quote from Roubini, economist. I love it, yup, that's right, workers get corporate machinations from hell (often called free trade) while the super rich and institutions get socialism!

There is an interview Yes, that's $2 Trillion in Losses, from Barrons with Roubini (this is his blog), talking about the housing bubble/crisis.

They note so far his predictions about the financial crisis (when most were singing a happy tune) have been dead on accurate, so they interview Roubini for further predictions.

One observation:

It turns out we're all wrong about "inflation" - GDP deflator vs. PPP vs. CPI

Good discussion of the difference between "inflation" and "purchasing power" as used in economic statistics, over at Naked Capitalism. Be sure you read the comments as well.

It turns out when pointy-headed economists and bureaucrats say "inflation", it doesn't mean what you and I think it does. Stupid us! We're really concerned about "purchasing power."

Oh.

Why You Should Be Thrilled the WTO Doha Talks Collapsed

There is something stinky in the the WTO trade agreements. Very Stinky.

The United States is trading away American jobs. This isn't by proxy, this is literally trading away American jobs to be done by foreign guest workers.

You've probably never even heard about it. There is this little something called GATS, mode 4 under WTO trade rules. What is GATS mode 4 you ask? Well, click on the link where I overview it. In a nutshell the WTO thinks it's a grand idea to trade education and services. Services means people. Yup, trading people.

Congress Reacts to Soaring Unemployment by Proposing More Foreign Workers

CBSMarketWatch.

I didn't make up the title, they called it as it is. This article is from Aug. 1st.

Believe it or not, one of these bills, H.R. 2882 was voted out of committee by Democrats and thus will probably be up for a vote on the House floor. Meanwhile in the Senate:

U.S. E-Verify is set to expire in November, and its reauthorization is being blocked by Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) who is insisting that the bill include a provision to "recapture" work- and family-based immigration visas dating back to 1992

Beware of the Lame Duck.

Countdown to $100 Oil?!? (3): Oil under $120

"Countdown to $100 Oil?!?" is my contrarian series on the direction of Oil prices. The premise of this series is that, even if we have arrived at the plateau of "Peak Oil", there will still be wild swings in its price (in fact, there already have been) and that demand destruction is taking place sufficiently such that oil will recross the $100 boundary before it ever reaches $200.
In the first installment, I argued that unsustainable heavy subsidies to the consumption of Oil in Asian economies, together with some evidence of hoarding of supply, and already apparent demand destruction in the US, meant that Oil was ready to decline below $100 sometime soon. Just a few days later, a number of Asian countries cut their subsidies, giving rise to my second installment.
Then Oil went on a sudden tear to $147+, before breaking down and by yesterday trading at $119.50, and at $118 this morning.

US Big Oil Paying Foreign Workers 1/2 Min. Wage on Gulf Oil Rigs

Business Week has an amazing story up about US oil companies operating in the Gulf of Mexico replacing American workers paid $18 hour with foreign laborers paid a fraction of that amount.

To Daryl Johnson of Orange, Tex., work as a rigger on pipe-laying barges seemed like a pretty sure bet. The pay was good—$18.50 an hour—and with oil exploration booming, Johnson felt secure with Houston-based Horizon Offshore Contractors, which had hired him in 1999. But Johnson, speaking through his attorney, says he got concerned when managers told him there were no openings for friends whom he referred for jobs, even while Horizon continued to hire Mexican and Malaysian nationals. Then, in 2007, Johnson lost his job. "They gave me no explanation," says Johnson......

The Blogosphere Banking Panic (III. The Failure of the FSLIC)

The Savings and Loans Crisis of the 1980's was one of the biggest financial crises in US history. The insurer for savings and loans, the FSLIC became insolvent and was abolished in 1989. A new institution, the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) was established to liquidate failed financial institutions. Federal insurance of S&L deposits was transferred to the FDIC in 1989.

One contemporary account described the scope of the financial meltdown as follows:

More Fluff, No Stuff - Joint Economic Committee Meeting

When is our Congress going to kick those lobbyists to the curb and do the right thing? Don't hold your breath! The Joint Economic Committee held a hearing on July 23, entitled, How Much More Can American Families Be Squeezed By Stagnant Wages, Skyrocketing Household Costs, And Falling Home Prices?

 

Now from the title, one might wonder if the question is poised to Wall Street wondering just how much money is left to pilfer from the pockets of the middle class. Still, there is always good information and rhetoric in these hearings.

 

The third season of recession

The headline GDP numbers this week said the economy grew at a 1.9% rate in the second quarter. Like most government numbers, things aren't nearly so rosy once you get past the headlines.
The first thing you have to understand is what the GDP Deflator is.

the GDP deflator (implicit price deflator for GDP) is a measure of the change in prices of all new, domestically produced, final goods and services in an economy.
[...]
In practice, the difference between the deflator and a price index like the CPI is often relatively small.

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