November 2012

The Grand Bargain Under the Fiscal Cliff

fiscal cliff The main stream media has finally caught on that Congress will cause a major recession through economic blackmail in addressing the Fiscal cliff. Now there are calls for compromise. Ever notice when we hear the call for compromise there are few specifics? That's our problem with D.C. generally, policies based on facts, statistics and their effects not only are ignored, we hear plain lies on what these agendas actually do.

In 2011 there was a tentative deal to cut social security benefits and Medicare.

The blueprint for a deal to avoid a fiscal nightmare early next year may be found in the failed debt negotiations between President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner in mid-2011.

Part of their talks on a $4 trillion deficit-cutting plan included a gradual increase in the Medicare eligibility age to 67 and an alternative yardstick for calculating inflation that would reduce annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustments.

Trade Deficit Declines by -5.1% for September 2012

The U.S. September 2012 monthly trade deficit declined by -5.1%, or -$2.25 billion. August's trade deficit was revised down by -$427 million, which gives a 3.1% monthly increase instead of the originally reported 4.1%. While the press touts the lowest monthly trade deficit since December 2010, the reality is September gives the second largest China trade deficit in history.

Consumer Credit Increases 5.0% on Student Debt for September 2012

The Federal Reserve's consumer credit report for September 2012 shows a 5.0% annualized monthly increase in consumer credit, once again driven by student loans. Revolving credit declined, -4.1%, and non-revolving credit increased 9.2 %. For Q3, consumer credit increased 4.0% annualized, with revolving credit declining -1.5% and non-revolving increasing 6.5% for the third quarter.

 

Election Aftermath - Campaign Spending Could have Given Every Person $19 and Pot Wins!

shrinkmanThe spending was obscene. The campaign was an astounding 18 months of drum beats and cable noise over an electoral map where most states are not competitive for both parties. The Center for Responsible Politics estimates this election cost $6 billion.

JOLTS - There were 3.4 People Looking for a Job for each Position Available in September 2012

The BLS September JOLTS report, or Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey shows there are 3.4* official unemployed per job opening. Opportunities, actual hires and layoffs were all down, showing a stagnant, dead pool job market. While openings decreased by -2.7%, actual hires declined by -5.7%.

An Abbreviated Reading List for Undecided Economic Voters

noise babyThe noise from the election machine is at 120 decibels. If you don't wear ear plugs you'll damage your hearing. Campaigns and their surrogates are misquoting statistics, rewriting history and are carpet bombing Ohio with ads and armies of campaign workers knocking at the door.

The Details of the October 2012 Employment Report Show Payrolls Paint Not Such a Rosy Picture

The BLS unemployment report shows total nonfarm payroll jobs gained were 171,000 for October 2012. September payrolls were revised from 114,000 to 148,000 and August was also revised upward, from 142,000 to 192,000. The below graph shows the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls employment.

 

Current Population Survey Employment Report in Graphs, Unemployment Rate 7.9% for October 2012

The BLS employment report shows the unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1 percentage points to 7.9%. The reason for this up-tick is more people participated in the labor force in October. We love economic eye candy at The Economic Populist and this overview graphs many of the statistics from the Current Population Survey of the employment report.

 

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