Angry Bear

The Less Than Supreme Court

How Recent Supreme Court Decisions Have Damaged Both the Court and the Constitution There’s a pattern: In November of 2000, immediately following the very close, highly contested, presidential contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore, John Roberts, a lawyer in private practice who had clerked for Chief Justice Rehnquist, rushed to Florida to be […]

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A detailed, updated look at the housing market

A detailed, updated look at the housing market Existing home sales for December were reported this morning at 6.76 million annualized, just below the October 10 Year+ high of 6.86 million. Although existing home sales are about 90% of the entire housing market, they are less important economically than new housing construction, which has multiplier […]

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Why Has AMLO Delayed Congratulating Biden On His Inauguration?

Why Has AMLO Delayed Congratulating Biden On His Inauguration?  Maybe he has now done it, although I have been unable to find any reports of him doing so.  But almost alone among world leaders, I think joined only by Kim Jong Un of North Korea, Mexicos’s President known as “AMLO” did not basically immediately congratulate […]

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Weekly Indicators for January 18 – 22 at Seeking Alpha

 by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for January 18 – 22 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The pandemic, and the monetary and interest rate responses to it, are dictating which sectors are improving and which are stagnated or worse. But as vaccinations slowly progress, in springtime there may be […]

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Desirable Effects of Income Taxation IV Dissipative Signaling

From now on, these posts will be reviews of the established literature. I will assume, as is standard, that people are completely selfish. The point is to show that, even if people are selfish, there are desirable incentive effects of income taxation. As is often the case, the results of 50 year old theory turn […]

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Unity

“Unity,” they cried. “First, we must have unity.” “Whose unity shall we have, yours or mine,” I asked? Knowing there was a Unitarian Church nearby, I stopped by and asked the minister. This ordinate tells me that theirs is all about a god of one; a unity god. Always wondered. Is there such a thing […]

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Three days later in the Biden Administration

Letters from an American, Newsletter History Professor Heather Cox Richardson at Morrissey College of Arts and Sciences, Boston College chronicles today’s political landscape. Because it is difficult to understand today’s politics without an outline of America’s Constitution, and laws, and the economy, and social customs; the professor’s newsletter explores what it means, and what it […]

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Extending START

Extending START  It is not a big headline story among all the other things newly inaugurated Joe Biden is doing, but it is being reported that despite a generally more hostile approach to Russia, he has agreed with what Russian President Putin has said he wants, which is to simply extend the current nuclear weapons […]

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Initial jobless claims: still elevated compared with several months ago, another negative jobs report for January a possibility

Initial jobless claims: still elevated compared with several months ago, another negative jobs report for January a possibility Initial jobless claims this week came within a hair of meeting my criteria for a change to an upward trend.  On a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by 151,303 to 960,668. Seasonally adjusted claims also declined […]

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NFIB small business optimism vs. reality

(Better late than never…Dan) This is a really slow news week – on the economy!  My retrospective on the Trump Presidency is nearly complete and will be published tomorrow morning. In the meantime, here is a brief note on the Small Business Optimism index which was updated for December last week, showing a steep decline […]

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Debt and Taxes III

I don’t know if I should try to make my contributions to AngryBear a noahpinion sub substack or if I should put this over at my personal blog, but I am always stimulated by Noah’s posts . His most recent “No one knows how much the government can borrow” is on a topic I’ve mentioned […]

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About Time

About Time Stacey Abrams on Biden’s leadership, Georgia’s election and challenging voter suppression, PBS New Hour January 21, 2021 Judy Woodruff: And, in fact, what we saw in 2020 and at the end of the election, President Trump and the people who support him making almost the opposite argument, that too much has been done […]

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“Those who cannot see must feel:” a retrospective on the Trump presidency

Four years ago I wrote “Those Who Cannot See Must Feel,” which is the (quote)“translation of an old German saying that I used to hear from my grandmother when I misbehaved.  It is pretty clear that, over the next four years, the American public is going to do a lot of feeling .…  The results […]

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The Democrats and the filibuster

Ezra Klein has moved to the New York Times, and he has a very good piece up today.  His argument is familiar to anyone who follows his work, but well-argued and definitely worth reading.  He begins with this: President Biden takes office with a ticking clock. The Democrats’ margin in the House and Senate couldn’t […]

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Will North Korea Explode After Biden Becomes President?

Will North Korea Explode After Biden Becomes President?  This is what was forecast in a column in the Washington Post by Victor Cha. He sees a combination of economic collapse, a massive spread of Covid-19, and a standard desire when a new US president to enter the office to be behind a possible outbreak of […]

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Trump on his own terms

David Hopkins has an interesting take on the failure of Trump’s presidency: Regardless of these challenges, the general verdict on Trump among historians and political scientists, reporters and commentators, and most of the Washington political community (including, at least privately, many Republicans) is guaranteed to range from disappointment and mockery to outright declarations that he […]

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Covid Vaccination one dose or 2 II

There is evidence from Israel that one dose of the Pfizer vaccine is less effective than was suggested by the few person-days of evidence in the phase III trials. In Israel  “over 12,400 have people tested positive for coronavirus after receiving vaccine shots” Israeli health officials estimate that one shot is about 50% effective after […]

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Debt and Taxes II

This is an extended post on the caveat to debt and taxes 1. It is joint work with Brad DeLong and Barbara Annicchiarico. The point is that, in his Presidential Address, Olivier Blanchard notes that the argument that higher debt causes increased welfare is weaker than the argument that it is feasible. The Treasury can […]

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