January 2010

The Boat Continues to Leak

When a boat you are on is leaking you either start bailing out the water or 'abandon ship'. Right? Well guess what our boat is continuing to leak. Census Bureau announced today that our Trade Deficit grew in November to $36.4 billion:

total November exports of $138.2 billion and imports of $174.6 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $36.4 billion, up from $33.2 billion in October, revised. November exports were $1.2 billion more than October exports of $137.0 billion. November imports were $4.4 billion more than October imports of $170.2 billion.

Emphasis is NOT mine!

Believe it or not there was a time when we didn't have such a large Trade Deficit:

But it certainly wasn't recent history.

Blame the Real Cause of this Crisis

Last week, Ben Bernanke blamed lax regulation for the financial crisis.  He was responding to those who claim low interest rate environment caused the crisis. Conservatives blame Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  These all were contributing factors and not the real cause of the crisis.  The depth of this crisis is too severe to blame one or several contributing factor. 

Creator of the Taylor Rule does a call out on Bernanke

Ouch! Professor John Taylor, creator of the Taylor Rule has written a Wall Street Journal op-ed calling out Bernanke's speech from a few days ago claiming the Fed's low interest rates did not affect the housing bubble (For details on the speech see: implausible deniability)

A major call out is the Fed spinning the formula:

AP says road projects from Stimulus haven't made a dent in unemployment

Oh my, is this story embarassing:

Ten months into President Barack Obama's first economic stimulus plan, a surge in spending on roads and bridges has had no effect on local unemployment and only barely helped the beleaguered construction industry, an Associated Press analysis has found.

Spend a lot or spend nothing at all, it didn't matter, the AP analysis showed: Local unemployment rates rose and fell regardless of how much stimulus money Washington poured out for transportation, raising questions about Obama's argument that more road money would address an "urgent need to accelerate job growth."

China Exports increase 17.7% in December 2009

The headlines are all on fire with China exports increase 17.7% in a year.

China’s exports surged in December and imports rose to a record in a stronger-than-forecast trade rebound that may lessen the case for governments to sustain stimulus programs this year.

Exports climbed 17.7 percent from a year earlier, the first increase in 14 months, and imports jumped 55.9 percent, the customs bureau said on its Web site yesterday. Year-on-year comparisons are affected by declines from late 2008 as the global credit crisis deepened.

But what is hilarious is the assumption China would somehow re-evaluate their currency due to these figures.

Digging deeper, we see that China has increased imports 55.9%. Raw commodities are the thing that stands out on imports:

Book Review: The Buyout of America

In December 2008, the Boston Consulting Group, which advises PE firms, predicted that almost 50 percent of PE-owned companies would probably default on their debt by the end of 2011.

Mr. Kosman, with a background as an editor at Mergermarket.com, former senior editor at The Deal, and reporter for Buyouts Newsletter, is presently a business reporter at the New York Post. He does a masterful job of recounting the history of private equity (PE); until the early '90s formerly referred to as LBO firms (Leveraged BuyOut), which first came to widespread attention during the age of the "junk bond" and the resultant S&L meltdown during the 1980s.

Friday Movie Night - Simon Johnson & Select Bill Moyer's Interviews

hot buttered popcorn It's Friday Night! Party Time!   Time to relax, put your feet up on the couch, lay back, and watch some detailed videos on economic policy!

 

This week isn't a full bore film but a series of interviews, with most, save one, from Bill Moyer's Journal.

Simon Johnson

First up in this interview with Simon Johnson saying the financial crisis is just beginning. The Big 6 banks' balance sheet is now equal to 60% of GDP and Johnson believes because of the carry trade and reckless Zombie banks who now have cheap money to dump into emerging markets.

 

 

Pages