April 2010

Recession is NOT over!

The National Bureau of Economic Research, the organization which dates recessions, cannot declare the end date of this recession, according to the New York Times.

The committee plans to announce on Monday that it cannot yet declare an end to the recession that began in December 2007, several members indicated on Sunday.

The green shooters assuredly will be taking their Prozac with this news.

The Wall Street Journal:

A committee of economists at the nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research, arbiter of when U.S. recessions begin and end, plans to issue a statement Monday with its latest assessment of the economic downturn that began in December 2007.

Regulators Asleep at the Wheel on Washington Mutual

The New York Times has gotten hold of a draft report blaming the FDIC and the Office of Thrift Supervision for not moving on Washington Mutual by lowering their rating. The official report will be released to the public next Friday. It appears the Office of Thrift Supervision received 15% of their assessment fees from Washington Mutual.

The two agencies that oversaw Washington Mutual, the investigation found, feuded so much that they could not even agree to deem the company “unsafe and unsound” until Sept. 18, 2008.

By then, it was too late. A week later, amid a wave of deposit withdrawals, the government seized the bank and sold it to JPMorgan Chase for $1.9 billion. It was by far the largest bank failure in American history.

EU agrees to Greek bailout

The game of chicken is over. The EU blinked.

Trying again to halt a debt crisis that has hammered the euro, fellow eurozone governments tossed struggling Greece a financial lifeline Sunday, saying they would make euro30 billion in loans available this year alone — if Athens asks for the money.
The International Monetary Fund stands ready to chip in another euro10 billion, said Olli Rehn, the EU monetary affairs chief.

The loan will be at a 5% interest rate, well below the market rates of nearly 7%.

European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have insisted that Greece not get below-market interest rates amounting to an EU subsidy for its past bad behavior.
"This is certainly no subsidy" to Greece, Rehn told a news conference.

Actually that is exactly what it is.

All Things Greek

Greece is getting a bail out. Well, not really, because they are getting loans, oops, wait, yes really.

The Wall Street Journal notices Greece will pay more in interest than if it had gone to the IMF. According to the Wall Street Journal the two possible rates for the €30 billion in loans is 5.33%, fixed and 4.14% variable.

Either way, the IMF is way cheaper. It uses it’s own interest rate as a base, and it levies different surcharges. The fund’s rate works out to 2.71%, as of last week, for a €10 billion package.

Now Bloomberg is reporting a €45 billion loan package, €30 billion from the Euro-Zone finance ministers and €15 billion from the IMF. Bloomberg is reporting the current Greek bond yield is 6.98%.

But this thing isn't over.

Simon Johnson points to amendment to break up the "Too Big to Fail" Financial Institutions

Simon Johnson is pointing to the Kanjorski amendment as a way to break up the 6 large banks who pose systemic risks, right now.

This is to patch up the Dodd bill and gives an in to go ahead and break up the 6 big banks now.

The approach in the Dodd bill simply will not work.

There is still a feasible alternative, based on a different approach – that proposed by Representative Paul Kanjorski (chairman of the Capital Market Subcommittee of the House Financial Services Committee) and adopted as an amendment in the House bill.

About that Chinese March 2010 Trade Deficit, Can you even trust their numbers?

As expected, the China March trade deficit is being used as political cannon fodder to claim China does not manipulate it's currency. (Uh, yes they do).

Firstly, the numbers

The $7.24 billion trade deficit in March reported Saturday by China's customs administration was China's first since a $2.26 billion deficit in April 2004.

The claim is imports rose 60% from January to March, 2010.

Exports $112.11 billion in March, up 24.3 percent from a year earlier. Imports reached $119.35 billion, up 66 percent compared to the same period last year.

In the first three months of this year, China still posted a global trade surplus of $14.5 billion, down 76.7 percent from the first quarter of 2009. The trade surplus was $7.6 billion in February and the combined January-February surplus was $21.8 billion.

A Defense of Public Sector Unionism - Part the Second

In part 1 of "In Defense of Public Sector Unions," I concentrated mostly on the ideological side of public sector unions - both why the existence of public sector unions is troubling to some progressives, and why ideologically progressives should support public sector unions. However, in the comments on the various sites where part 1 was cross-posted, one of the frequent themes of discussion was a request for some hard numbers to prove that public sector union workers aren't the goldbricking, featherbedding "thugs" they're made out to be.

So let's talk numbers.

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