manufacturing hours

May Leading Economic Indicators (2)

Over a week ago, I promised a follow up post on May's Leading Economic Indicators. Real life intervened, so, tardily, here it is.

April's LEI were the most strongly positive indicators in 2 years, and the first batch of readings for May were similarly positive. By June 1, we already knew that, by weight over 50% of the indicators would be positive. Real money supply was still strong as the Fed continues to re-liquify (or re-solvenc-fy) the banking system. The yield curve was even more strongly positive than before, due to the backup in long term rates while short term rates are still essentially 0%. Stock prices (over the last 90 days) also strongly rallied. Consumer expectations about the future is rising sharply. Average initial claims for unemployment insurance were basically flat for the month. By weight, that's 52% positive, and 3% neutral.

So May's data started out looking very positive. As we shall see, the suckerpunch was saved for the end.