GDP

Durable Goods Shoots Way Up, 3.5% New Order Gain for November 2013

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders increased by 3.5% for November 2013 after a -0.7% decrease in October.   The really good news in this report is the growth in core capital goods.  New orders in core capital goods increased 4.5% for November  This report is often revised dramatically, yet even inventories did not decline.   Even without volatile aircraft durable goods new orders increased.

 

Durable Goods, Inventories and Q3 GDP

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders decreased by -2.0% for October 2013 after a 4.1% increase in September.   The decline was mainly aircraft as transportation durable goods new orders by themselves dropped -5.9%.  Without transportation orders, which aircraft is a large part, durable goods new orders fell by -0.1%.  We also estimate Q3 GDP will be revised upward to 3.2% on inventories.

 

September's 8.0% Trade Deficit Increase Should Lower Q3 GDP

The U.S. September 2013 monthly trade deficit jumped from last month with a 8.0% increase and now stands at -$41,778 billion.  The jump in the trade deficit should lower Q3 GDP upon the next revision.  We estimate the September trade deficit will lower Q3 GDP by 0.3 percentage points.

GDP 2.8% for Q3 2013

Q3 2013 real GDP came in at 2.8%  Changes in business inventories saved the day as did less of an increase in imports.  Fixed investment also increased.   Government spending declines were about the same as Q2, yet local governments increased spending.  Consumer spending was less growth than Q2, only about 37% of this quarter's GDP.

Q2 2013 GDP Revised Upward to 2.5% on the June Trade Deficit Shrink

Q2 2013 real GDP was revised significantly upward to 2.5% from the 1.7% originally reported   The revision gain was almost all a reduction in the trade deficit as we predicted earlier.  The shrink in the trade deficit alone added 0.8 percentage points to Q2 GDP, a welcome change.  Unfortunately this is a fluke.

The Revisionist National Income And Product Accounts

The Bureau of Economic Analysis has revised the National Income and Product Accounts all the way back to 1928.  With the release of Q2 GDP, Gross Domestic Product magically added $559.8 billion to 2012 GDP in current dollars.  Additionally the chained dollar base year was changed from 2005 to 2009, a very funky year where some deflation from 2008 was still present.

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