Durable Goods New Orders Bomb Out for December 2013

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders plunged by -4.3% for December 2013 after a 2.6% increase in November.  The really bad news in this report is core capital goods declined by -1.3%.  For the last two of three months durable goods new orders as a whole have declined.  While December is shaping up to a bad month for the economy, a word of caution as durable goods are often revised dramatically.


GDP By Industry for 2012

The BEA has released revisions for Gross Domestic Product by Industry for years 1997 all the way to 2012.  Unfortunately but not surprising, manufacturing was revised downward in their real value added to economic growth.  Overall GDP grew 2.8% in 2012 and that year's better news is private goods GDP increased more in growth in comparison to private sector services.


Durable Goods Shoots Way Up, 3.5% New Order Gain for November 2013

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders increased by 3.5% for November 2013 after a -0.7% decrease in October.   The really good news in this report is the growth in core capital goods.  New orders in core capital goods increased 4.5% for November  This report is often revised dramatically, yet even inventories did not decline.   Even without volatile aircraft durable goods new orders increased.


Durable Goods, Inventories and Q3 GDP

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders decreased by -2.0% for October 2013 after a 4.1% increase in September.   The decline was mainly aircraft as transportation durable goods new orders by themselves dropped -5.9%.  Without transportation orders, which aircraft is a large part, durable goods new orders fell by -0.1%.  We also estimate Q3 GDP will be revised upward to 3.2% on inventories.


September's 8.0% Trade Deficit Increase Should Lower Q3 GDP

The U.S. September 2013 monthly trade deficit jumped from last month with a 8.0% increase and now stands at -$41,778 billion.  The jump in the trade deficit should lower Q3 GDP upon the next revision.  We estimate the September trade deficit will lower Q3 GDP by 0.3 percentage points.

GDP 2.8% for Q3 2013

Q3 2013 real GDP came in at 2.8%  Changes in business inventories saved the day as did less of an increase in imports.  Fixed investment also increased.   Government spending declines were about the same as Q2, yet local governments increased spending.  Consumer spending was less growth than Q2, only about 37% of this quarter's GDP.

Q2 2013 GDP Revised Upward to 2.5% on the June Trade Deficit Shrink

Q2 2013 real GDP was revised significantly upward to 2.5% from the 1.7% originally reported   The revision gain was almost all a reduction in the trade deficit as we predicted earlier.  The shrink in the trade deficit alone added 0.8 percentage points to Q2 GDP, a welcome change.  Unfortunately this is a fluke.