November 2008

Unemployment Claims to 9/11 levels

Ah a new record which surely will keep breaking, Unemployment claims jump to 516,000 and what is significant is that equals the September 11th jump in jobless claims.

The Labor Department on Thursday reported that jobless claims last week increased by 32,000 to a seasonally adjusted 516,000. That nearly matched the 517,000 claims reported seven years ago, and is only the second time since 1992 that claims have topped 500,000.

The total also was much higher than analysts expected. Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected claims to increase only slightly to 484,000. Initial claims from two weeks ago were revised upward Thursday by 3,000 to 484,000.

Rep. Marcy Kaptur Launches Campaign for House Leadership Vice-Chair of Dem. Caucus

Update: Kaptur lost.

Becerra was the only member of the Democratic leadership who faced a vote of the entire caucus. He won in a 175-67 vote over Kaptur, who mounted a late challenge and attempted to appeal to centrist and conservative Democrats who had voiced concern about the liberal tilt of the new leadership team.

Kaptur said that her support came from a “broad–based coalition from the whole fly-over-state part of the country.”

Kaptur — who is a member of the liberal-leaning Progressive Caucus — ran on a geography platform, handing out small maps of the country with blue flags planted in Connecticut, Maryland, South Carolina and California and asking for her colleagues to “[Bring] the Heartland to Leadership.”

So much for Progressives and Populists getting a voice.


Much ado about GM, Part 2 of 3

In our first installment, we introduced you to the current battle for the fate of General Motors. We highlighted why they share some if not all of the blame for their current situation. We talked about the various sides involved in one way or another with the situation of GM. Today we tackle the big question, what many deemed “unthinkable” previously, what bankruptcy would mean for General Motors and you.

Now many have called on for General Motors to declare bankruptcy. Many of these folks believe that this filing would completely destroy the company. While this may be a possibility, people tend to confuse between the type of bankruptcy that GM most likely would file and the one they may have in their mind.

Two signs that something is seriously wrong

Every once in a while in the world of economics an economic indicator will suddenly go crazy. One day the charts all look normal and easy to understand. The next day it suddenly launches into an entirely different world.

What a massive swing in the index means is always open to interpretation (a whole industry exists to analyze these movements), and no one is certain if they are correct until years afterward. Sometimes what it means is more obvious than the why, but the 'why' is ultimately more important.

Paulson Now Going to Give Bail Out Money to "Consumer Finance"

Told one thing, get another or more aptly titled: What is Behind that TARP?

Paulson to Focus on Consumer Finance:

[Paulson] has shelved the original plan to buy troubled mortgage assets while turning his attention to nonbank financial institutions and consumer finance.

Purchasing these so-called "toxic" assets was once the cornerstone of the rescue plan for financial markets and was almost the entire focus of Congress when the package was being debated before its enactment. But almost as soon as Treasury received the money, it decided that giving capital to banks in return for preferred stock was a better use of the funds.

Russia Gets Downgraded, Increased Risk of Default

Forbes is reporting that Russia, Romania and South Korea were downgraded in sovereign ratings, Romainia to junk.

Fitch lowered South Africa's ratings outlook as part of a wider review of 17 major investment-grade emerging economies that also resulted in Romania's sovereign ratings downgrade to 'junk' status and ratings cut for Bulgaria, Hungary and Kazakhstan.

The ratings agency, which also lowered its outlook for South Korea and Malaysia, said emerging Europe was the 'most vulnerable' to the deterioration in the global financial and economic environment due to the large current account deficits and high short-term debt levels of the region's countries

Bloomberg notes a sudden spike in insuring Russia's debt and the Ruble is devalued.

Fannie Freddie New Mortgage Restructuring Plan

Some details on the Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae restructuring plans:

Under the proposal, mortgage servicers will work with borrowers to reduce monthly payments to 38 percent of their gross income, a threshold of affordability, by lowering the principal, reducing interest rates and extending the length of the loan term. The plan doesn't include money from the Treasury's $700 billion bank rescue and isn't mandatory for companies that received federal aid.

Conditions and Fees

Homeowners that qualify will receive notices about the program. Their loan modifications won't become final until they have made three consecutive payments, and there is no limit to the number of times a loan can be modified. The new payment will include all of the borrower's monthly housing costs, such as taxes and condominium payments.

Oil Drops Below $60 , IEA to reduce Demand Estimates Further

New Deal Democrat wins the Prediction Prize by going against the tide and predicting oil would drop when almost all were predicting $200 oil.

Oil Falls to 19-Month Low, Gasoline Tumbles, on Demand Outlook:

The IEA, which coordinates energy policy in 28 developed countries, will reduce the estimated growth in global demand for a third month in a report tomorrow, according to four former IEA analysts. Energy prices also dropped because of declining equity markets and a rising U.S. dollar.

``It all comes back to the economy and how deep folks think the recession will be,'' said Rick Mueller, director of oil markets at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. ``Demand is poor and should get worse as the recession deepens.

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