the October indices compare prices of houses sold in August, September and October to those sold in July, August, and September, and hence the change in the month over month indexes are arithmetically equal to 1/3rd the difference between July home prices and October home prices, ie, not really a useful monthly change at all
this is also the case with any three month average, which we can represent by (a + b + c) / 3, with a being the current month, b being last month, and c being the month before that...another way of writing that same expression is "a/3 + b/3 + c/3 " when one compares that to the prior month, represented by (b + c + d) / 3, where d is the month before the month before last, we end up comparing (a/3 + b/3 + c/3) to (b/3 + c/3 + d/3), and since two of our elements in that comparison are identical, the comparison simply becomes a/3 to d/3, or one-third the difference between a and d... the trouble is, 3 month averages are used by economists everywhere as if they're providing some special insight...even the Chicago Fed elevates its three month average of the National Activity Index to the version that should be followed to remove volatility..so in the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for November they end up comparing their August index to November, which is complete nonsense..
rent has been the primary driver of CPI inflation, and why PCE inflation, where housing has a smaller influence, is less than CPI...CPI less shelter is down 0.8% year-over-year...
Inflation metrics have their own controversy. Anyone who runs a household plus knows statistics knows there is no way inflation is just 2% per year in reality. Rents, case in point are very geographically dependent and those on the West coast are getting 50% increases since 2008.
The former chief economist to Vice President Biden at the Washington Post says very low inflation [because of very cheap oil], meant that stagnant nominal wage growth translated into real wage growth ...
If so, then barely. And what if oil had not fallen so much? As always, the cost of housing and food went up.
He also notes: "This year marks the 13th out of 16 years since 2000 that forecasters have been too optimistic re growth expectations. Cumulatively, the downside misses on the level of real GDP sum to almost 15 percent since 2000. That tells you a few things. One, the models are missing something important that’s holding back growth; and two, researchers are insufficiently self-correcting. The economy is Lucy and the forecasters are Charlie Brown, or, more formally, what researchers are considering temporary factors are, in fact, more persistent."
Over the past 8 years, the median annual household rose $32 a year.
The median annual household income in November 2015 was $56,746 -- which is 1.1 percent lower than January 2000.
The median annual household income in December 2007 was $56,714 -- when the Great Recession began.
Dean Baker, Center for Economic Research and Policy (December 28, 2015) If Patent Monopolies Bias Cancer Research, Why Not Have Publicly Funded Trials?
Many of us see the process as corrupt and no longer trust it. Trump is "the gloves are off" kind of guy. While a lot of feel this way, and don't trust the establishment, we have to be careful of our gut reactions. This isn't over by a long shot. There's a lot to cover before people will make a judgement before the primaries. This is going to get interesting (like it hasn't already?). By the way, I am in the "we have to get this right or we're doomed" camp. I'm sick of the mealy mouthed politician who simply will not stand up and say: "enough, let's talk frankly".EPer: Anonymous Drive-by (not verified)
Love these organizations who simply wipe out all competition in providing health care services in an area. Then, they play God and try to link credit/billing to obtaining health care. Haven't even gotten to insurance yet.
Those drug prices are outrageous and the day they ban big pharma ads on TV is the day American society 100% improves immediately.
a corporatist neoliberal Republican, along the order of our current Democratic Party Administration.
With Majority Leader Ryan at the helm, I expect the next Congress to succeed at passing most--if not all--of the cuts to Social Security, which were recommended in the Bowles-Simpson Fiscal Commission's proposal--"The Moment Of Truth."
The left-leaning Social Security Works organization published a table several years ago claiming that if all the recommended cuts were passed, the cuts to the top earners--not to be confused with the One Percent--would be approximately 42%.
The cuts would be across-the-board (at lower percentages), possibly only bypassing those who make approximately $9,000 or less annually, IIRC.
Where is the outrage?
ElinEPer: Elin Karlsson
Probably the worst "revisions" was when they claimed IP is actually economic growth and changed the way NIPA are tabulated. But in terms of generic revisions, it's always this way. Very difficult to be precise with so many inputs, such a large and diverse economy.
After all the revisions, what do you guess GDP will be for FY2015?
THE GUARDIAN: "US third-quarter GDP revised down to 2%, down from previous estimate and a marked slowdown from previous quarter’s 3.9%"
December 23, 2015
Q3 GDP 2.0% as Investment in Inventories Declined
November 29, 2015
On the Revision of 3rd Quarter GDP from a 1.5% Growth Rate to a 2.1% Rate
October 30, 2015
Q3 GDP A Not So Hot 1.5%
September 26, 2015
Q2 GDP Revised Even Higher to 3.9%
August 27, 2015
Q2 GDP Soars With 3.7% Growth
real consumption of goods rose 1.0% in November as real durables consumption rose 1.1% and real non-durables consumption rose 0.9%...a negative 0.4% deflator was applied to November goods
To me, Trump is very good at playing the PR/Media machine game and also knows his audience. The press are doing their best to get rid of him but conservatives just seem to eat him up.
They won't do anything about corporate welfare because the U.S. government is owned, lock, stock, barrel, by the same corporations.
the commodity indexes continue to bounce around 16 year lows, prices for core CPI goods are down 0.6% year over year, and PCE durable goods haven't put back to back monthly price increases together in years...meanwhile, the price index for core services is up 2.9% from a year ago
* Bernie Sanders wants to tax capital gains (currently taxed at 23.8% — which was 40% in 1979) the same as ordinary income.
* Bernie Sanders wants to raise the top marginal rate on ordinary income (wages) — possibly from 39.6% to 50% on individuals with annual incomes over $413,000 a year (but not as high as 90% — as the GOP claims.)
* Bernie Sanders want's to lower the estate tax threshold to $3.5 million (Currently it's $5.3 million per parent.)
The "Feel the Bern" website has more, including his plan for corporations.
And at Bernie's website he has more about Income and Wealth Inequality
I have to review why they believe that won't risk deflation, probably claiming the decrease is all about gasoliine/oil.
Openings exceeding hires is probably a good thing for workers but a bad thing for inflation. The news is full of reports of trucker shortages, construction worker shortages, and even Walmart raising wages to keep competitive. The companies hold off at first hoping to get someone at their current salary and eventually give in and raise pay for everyone. This is just the beginning of wage inflation I think. It will be 4% soon enough.EPer: Scott S (not verified)
If you notice, CNN, FOX, MSNBC are not news and more and more either are the network news channels. They just give "opinion" on almost everything instead of reporting the news and doing any real research Journalism. Many read the press release verbatim on air and then we have "paid" "experts" who also are often paid by corporations, political backers and so on. It's such a shame but we have product placement in the evening news these days.
I was about to write an article on what the Fed rate increase means but you put it much more succinctly.
Now watch credit cards jack up rates by using this as an excuse.