ADP Employment Report Shows 158,000 Jobs for March 2013

ADP's proprietary private payrolls jobs report shows a gained of 158,000 private sector jobs for March 2013.  ADP revised February's job figures up by 39,000 to 237 thousand, yet January's tally was revised down by 38,000 to a total of 177 thousand private sector jobs gained for the month.  This report does not include government, or public jobs.

 

adp graph of private jobs

 

Most of the jobs gains were in the service sector and this month services added 151,000 private sector jobs.  The goods sector added only 7,000 jobs  Professional/business services jobs grew by 39,000 and was the largest growth services sector.  Trade/transportation/utilities showed strong growth again with 22,000 jobs.  Financial activities payrolls increased by 9,000.  According to ADP, the private services sector has added an average of 191,000 jobs per month for Q1 2013.

Construction work added zero jobs, and ADP claims this is due to the rebuilding from Hurricane Sandy tapering off in terms of new hires.  From December to February construction added 29,000 private jobs on average.   Manufacturing had a gain of 6,000 jobs, the second month in a row for gains in manufacturing This is the slowest job growth for the private goods sector in six months.  Graphed below are the month job gains or losses for the five areas ADP covers, manufacturing (maroon), construction (blue), professional & business (red), trade, transportation & utilities (green) and financial services (orange).

 

 

ADP reports payrolls by business size, unlike the official BLS report.  Small business, 1 to 49 employees, added 74,000 jobs with establishments having less than 20 employees adding 44,000 of those jobs.  That's kind of strange for the report tries to claim hiring is tapering off in small business where the payroll roster is close to the Obamacare 50 employee mark where the business must then provide health insurance.  Yet, a majority of the jobs added by business size for March are from small businesses with less than 50 employees.

Medium sized business payrolls are defined as 50-499 employees, added they added 37,000 jobs.  Large business added 47 thousand to their payrolls.   If we take the breakdown further, large businesses with greater than 1,000 workers, added a total of 20,000 jobs.  Thing is, we do not know if those are American workers or foreign guest workers on Visas.  Other metrics showed large businesses not hiring Americans, in the United States.

Below is the graph of ADP private sector job creation breakdown of large businesses (bright red), median business (blue) and small business (maroon), by the above three levels.  For large business jobs, the scale is on the right of the graph.  Medium and Small businesses' scale is on the left.

 

ADP large, medium, small private sector jobs

 

One of the more interesting aspects of the ADP report is the breakdown of the private sector by service producing and goods producing jobs.  The service sector are disproportionately lower paying jobs as a whole in comparison to goods producing jobs, even while including the financial, professional and business services sectors are part of services.  Below is the graph of ADP service sector (maroon, scale left) jobs against their goods production jobs (blue, scale right).

 

service sector vs. goods adp

 

This report, if it matches Friday's official unemployment report, would overall imply overall barely enough job growth to keep up with population, but this is just the private sector job growth.   Government jobs will surely be negative as the sequester starts to take effect.  The U.S. needs about 115,000 jobs per month, minimum just to keep up with population growth, with the same lousy, artificially low, labor participation rates.

The monthly BLS jobs survey (CES) has a 100,000 payroll jobs overall margin of error.  ADP changed their methodology and now claim to match the BLS private payrolls, but only historically, after revisions.  The below graph shows shows how many private sector payroll jobs, each month, ADP was off by in comparison to what the BLS reported.   This is a monthly graph, not cumulative.  As we can see, it's been rare where the two monthly reports get the exact same private payrolls growth numbers.   When the below graph bar is negative, that means the BLS reported a larger number of private jobs than ADP did, when the graph bar is positive, it means ADP reported larger private payrolls.  Again, compared are private sector jobs which is different from the BLS headline number.   This graph is updated with the March BLS jobs report.

 

ADP vs. BLS

 

Below is the cumulative difference between what the ADP reports as the private nonfarm payroll jobs vs. the BLS (ADP minus BLS).  This line shows the divergence, over time in number of nonfarm private payroll jobs reported between the two reports.  Previously the difference between ADP and BLS was around 400,000, now we see the cumulative error more in line with the real BLS CES survey margin of error.  Here again we see a massive change in the ADP private payrolls methodology and benchmarking.  ADP claims their private payrolls cover 24 million jobs with 416 thousand businesses in the U.S.   This graph is updated with the March BLS private non-farm payrolls data.

 

ADP vs. BLS private payrolls

 

The graph below is the monthly change of private jobs as reported by ADP.  At the absolutely bare minimum, the United States needs 1.2 million jobs per year, or 100,000 per month, total jobs, including public sector jobs, to keep up with additional new workers in the labor supply caused by population growth with the current terrible labor market conditions assumed.

 

 

Regardless of the statistical differences between ADP and the BLS, these payroll figures are none too swell, especially with America's five year, three months employment crisis.

Here is our overview of last month's ADP private sector jobs report overview, only graphs revised.  This article goes into the methodology details on the ADP report changes and compares historical data of the two methodologies in graphs.

ADP themselves have really improved the visuals on their website for more perspectives, breakdowns and charts of their statistics.

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And the unemployed ask, "And who's fixing a damn thing?!"

And for the 28 million + (must be much more by now) out here in the Wasteland, where do we/they turn? No one in power doing anything to change or even acknowledge the truth because their business is corruption, and business is GOOD.

Look, if someone said study Mandarin at your own expense for 4 years or some programming language or study this or that, we'd do it even if we are 30 or 40 or 50. But only with a guarantee that at the end of the time and $, we'd have a job we could house and feed ourselves with. Maybe a kid or two. But there are no guarantees and no one is saying anything about any jobs that will be open. They'll give a grin fit for a dumbsh*t and say, "Well, if you have skills and the work ethic, we'll hire you." And expect those homeless or close to it to grin and take it all in stride. Guess what? I ain't grinning, haven't been for awhile. But don't dare confront these asshats with personal experience of rejection over 4 or 5 or 6 years lest you be labeled someone with a "bad attitude" unworthy of a minimum wage job for your PhD.

Well, I'm sick of the lies and inaction. I'm waiting for Mad Max to arrive with his dog, because I don't see any jobs, no reason to learn anything more because it won't get a job anywhere (here or abroad) and Taleo and hiring managers will blackhole qualified applicants anyway, and it will just be a waste of $ and time when people don't have any $ to waste and life is too short to bow to some jackass on a powertrip that can't spell HR. In fact, too much learning is not what America wants now, if corporate America wants you, best fit in to "Idiocracy."

And no one in power cares, so a big F U to all those that destroyed our country. When men and women have no hope, things get really bad (or exciting - I guess depends on which side of Versailles's gates one finds themselves on). But CNN had a report on a Rutgers coach getting fired, I'm sure that issue of "national importance" trumps the close to 30 million Americans that have fire in their eyes and pure revulsion for those that sold them out (both Dems and Republicans).

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write an Instapopulist

Right, they are just going to flood the U.S. labor market with immigration, just completely ignoring the reality of economic conditions. We only have the Fed buying up $40 billion a month in MBS and U.S. treasuries, but who cares, go ahead, flood the labor market...

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Can't watch news on immigration - I'd break the screen

Other countries are tightening restrictions on foreigners (e.g., Japan paying foreign workers to leave) and we're doing the exact opposite. I sure hope US companies force foreigners to work for free in internships just like Americans from 18 - 65 already do. Let's call it a path to citizenship - they want to be treated like us, step on up, work for free, it's the new minimum wage. I'm watching Nero fiddle and feeling it getting hotter and hotter.

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McDonalds does

as do others. If you read the testimony further from the hearing where we connect U.S. domestic diversity discrimination with guest worker Visas, one plan is to charge $25,000 per worker. Now making sure a foreign guest worker is more expensive than an American one. If they really did that and it was significantly more expensive, I'd bump that up to $40k per STEM in fees, it would help. But green cards for graduating from a University is just going to make the current disaster for higher education worse. It is simply financially impossible for a U.S. citizen to go to a PhD program for now seven years on just $14k stipend per year to live on.

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Initial claims + labor participation rate merely confirm obvious

As always, I'm shocked there's anyone left to fire in jobs, but the weekly initial claims are so incredibly high even at this stage post 2007/2008. Toss in the labor force participation rates that haven't been seen since 3 decades ago, pathetic jobs created (and the quality of those jobs) and things are pure crap for most of us (and getting worse for more). Compound this with Bernanke's policy of perpetual QE based on unemployment rates and we're getting unemployment + inflation with no end in sight.

But hey, now's the time to flood the labor market and create greater competition for the fewer jobs out there; time to depress wages so even more people can work for free (or pay to work).

Post an ad on craigslist in any market asking for people to apply for a temp job in any field with no pay and no benefits and subject to being terminated without any notice and you'll get flooded with applicants with experience and good degrees desperate for work of any kind. But hey, good times are here for the USA!

Those selectively blaming Dems or Republicans, don't, blame them both completely. They'll get rich no matter who sits in office because corruption covers all bases - that's how it works. Outsourcing and visas serve both, Wall Street and Big CEOs run the show, if they didn't, they wouldn't be the top donors to both campaigns throughout all these years and wouldn't have control of our state houses and federal offices no matter which D or R is in power. Public databases confirm the list of big donors is bipartisan. Doesn't matter if we're hit in the head with a blue or red bat, the damage is the same.

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exactly

I should have overviews of this month's employment report up shortly, but that's right We have $40 billion a month in quantitative easing while Congress makes the employment situation worse and now they are hell bent on flooding the U.S. labor market with more cheap foreign labor when there are clearly not enough jobs, at all levels, for those already here.

We do not have inflation due to weak demand, the economy not operating at full capacity, but we do have housing prices being artificially pumped up (I believe) due to QE with wages depressed. Terrible!

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Countries in these straits can't last too long

It's just impossible, something has to give/break. Tax base withering, more people that need jobs can't find them and can't collect any $ whatsoever (too old, contractors/temp, etc.), endless foreign adventures (Mali, Democratic Rep. of Congo, Afghanistan, Yemen, and dozens of others) that cost trillions and do jack for citizens while enriching military-industrial players, and education is a waste of time and $. So is following the law, apparently (if you're one of the 99%). And the MSM is talking about whether another Clinton can "serve the public" as President in 2016 or maybe another of the elitist jackasses that crave $ and power. Like I said awhile ago, maybe we can have a Kennedy in a cabinet position, a Romney in some other spot, a Clinton in another, a Bush in another, and maybe a Rockefeller kickin' it somewhere else. Just for kicks, I think we need a Blankfein and Dimon or Buffett or Gates too. Because in a nation of 330 million, surely the money and power-hungry psychos that enter boardrooms and politics are the only people best-suited to lead our Nation? Perhaps a Clinton, Rockefeller, Kennedy, Bloomberg, Bush, or Murdoch could instruct me on the evils of nepotism. Probably not.

Just end this charade and let's reboot. This travesty sucks (I broke it down so any US or State Senator could understand my point).

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For five years

Congress really refuses to even recognize the jobs crisis. It is absolutely insane to talk about deficits.

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