revision

Another Strong Quarter for GDP, Q3 3.5%

Third quarter 2014 real GDP came in at a strong 3.5%.  This is the second quarter in a row for solid economic growth.  Q1 showed a contraction  Take a good look for Q3 GDP will be revised and we estimate strongly downward as imports come into the Census for tabulation.  Private inventories contracted, hence investment was much less than Q2.  Consumer spending was also tamer.  Overall Q3 GDP was surprisingly solid.

 

Q2 2014 GDP a Strong 4.6%

Q2 2014 real GDP was revised to 4.6%, a strong showing not seen since Q4 2011.  Q2 Gross Domestic Product also cancels out the dismal Q1 -2.1% real GDP contraction for the year.  Growth was across the board.  Investment showed large growth.  Personal consumption expenditures increased and were a large component of GDP. Changes in private inventories was a large GDP contribution, but so were exports.

Q4 GDP Downgrades to a Measly 2.4%

Q4 2013 real GDP was revised significantly downward from the original 3.2% to a weak, measly 2.4%.  Personal consumption expenditures was revised down over half a percentage point of GDP.  The original estimate for exports was also revised down over a quarter of a percentage point.  If the Q4 downward revision in consumer spending isn't bad enough, for all of 2013 annual real GDP was just 1.9%.  In 2012, annual GDP was 2.8%.

 

GDP 2.8% for Q3 2013

Q3 2013 real GDP came in at 2.8%  Changes in business inventories saved the day as did less of an increase in imports.  Fixed investment also increased.   Government spending declines were about the same as Q2, yet local governments increased spending.  Consumer spending was less growth than Q2, only about 37% of this quarter's GDP.

The Revisionist National Income And Product Accounts

The Bureau of Economic Analysis has revised the National Income and Product Accounts all the way back to 1928.  With the release of Q2 GDP, Gross Domestic Product magically added $559.8 billion to 2012 GDP in current dollars.  Additionally the chained dollar base year was changed from 2005 to 2009, a very funky year where some deflation from 2008 was still present.

Pages