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Trump To Turkey? President Floats Joining Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks

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Trump To Turkey? President Floats Joining Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks

It yet another Ukraine peace talks related surprise, President Donald Trump on Monday floated the possibility of him traveling to Turkey to personally mediate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which are set for Thursday in Istanbul.

"I was thinking about actually flying over there," Trump said during a televised press conference on drug pricing. The words come after Ukraine's President Zelensky said he's ready to be there, and also challenged Putin to travel to the Turkish capital in person.

AFP/Getty Images

"There’s a possibility of it, I guess, if I think things could happen," Trump added, and the caveat: "I would fly there if I thought it would be helpful,"

"Thursday’s meeting with Russia and Ukraine is really important," Trump said. "I was really insistent that that meeting take place. I think good things can come out of that meeting. Stop the bloodshed, it’s a bloodbath."

The White House is backing a 30-day ceasefire plan, in hopes that it would lead to a final end to the bloodshed, with detailed negotiations in the interim.

"I have a feeling they're going to agree. I do. I have a feeling," Trump also emphasized. The travel comments seemed more about displaying his personal optimism on new talks.

He didn't mention specifics or the challenge of logistics and setting up proper security, which can typically take days or weeks when it comes to presidential travel and coordination between the Secret Service and host nations.

President Trump is about to embark on a trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE - so a potential Turkey visit would require a stop-over upon the return trip.

Zelensky was quick to respond to Trump's public brainstorming, stating on X that "all of us in Ukraine would appreciate it if President Trump could be there with us at this meeting in Türkiye." He added: "I hope that the Russians will not evade the meeting."

It seems clear that in poking the Kremlin, Zelensky is really just seeking to performatively demonstrate to Washington and European allies that he's willing to engage in negotiations, after Trump has ramped up the pressure, and given Kiev desperately needs to continue securing Western weapons and support.

It remains that Zelensky has offered no big (territorial) concessions to end the war, so likely Putin isn't too interested in traveling to Turkey personally, for something which would likely in the end be a bust in terms of finalizing a peace settlement.

The Kremlin likely understands perfectly well that this is mostly Zelensky playing to the cameras, and seeking to satisfy Trump and 'reset' the relationship with the US. It's anything but clear whether Zelensky will actually be in Istanbul at this point.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 17:20

Bitcoin Now Deflationary Due To Strategy's BTC Purchases

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Bitcoin Now Deflationary Due To Strategy's BTC Purchases

Authored by Vince Quill via CoinTelegraph.com,

Strategy, a Bitcoin treasury company, is accumulating Bitcoin at a faster rate than total miner output, giving the supply-capped asset a -2.33% annual deflation rate, according to CryptoQuant CEO and market analyst Ki Young Ju.

“Their 555,000 BTC is illiquid with no plans to sell,” the analyst wrote in a May 10 X post.

“Strategy's holdings alone mean a -2.23% annual deflation rate — likely higher with other stable institutional holders,” Ju continued.

Michael Saylor, the co-founder of Strategy, is an outspoken Bitcoin advocate who evangelizes the scarce digital currency to potential investors and has inspired many other companies to adopt a Bitcoin treasury plan.

The total BTC supply is shrinking due to Strategy accumulating Bitcoin. Source: Ki Young Ju

Additionally, Strategy acts as a bridge between Bitcoin and traditional financial (TradFi) markets by funneling funds from TradFi investors into Bitcoin through selling corporate debt and equity, which the company uses to finance more BTC purchases. According to Michael Saylor, over 13,000 institutions hold Strategy stock directly in their portfolios.

Bitcoin investors continue to watch the company and its effect on Bitcoin market dynamics. Strategy leads the charge toward institutional adoption of Bitcoin, further restricting the supply of available coins and raising BTC prices, while dampening volatility.

Strategy and corporate institutions change the Bitcoin market dynamic

Adam Livingston, author of "The Bitcoin Age and The Great Harvest," recently said that Strategy is synthetically halving Bitcoin by outpacing miner supply through high demand.

According to the author, the current collective daily miner output is approximately 450 BTC, while Strategy accumulates an average of 2,087 BTC per day, over four times the daily miner production.

Miner reserves are dwindling and are in a long-term decline. Source: CryptoQuant

Other institutions, including hedge funds, pension funds, asset managers, and tech companies, continue buying BTC as a portfolio diversifier or a treasury asset to hedge against fiat currency inflation.

ETF inflows have also helped to stabilize Bitcoin's price by injecting fresh capital from traditional financial markets, smoothing out the volatility of Bitcoin and making downturns less severe.

However, the most august institutional players — sovereign wealth funds — will not ramp up Bitcoin purchases until clear cryptocurrency regulations are established in the United States, according to SkyBridge founder Anthony Scaramucci.

Once a comprehensive regulatory framework emerges in the US, it will trigger large blocks of Bitcoin purchases by sovereign wealth funds, increasing Bitcoin's price, Scaramucci added.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 17:00

MAHA: Fighting The Biomedical War On The American Public

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MAHA: Fighting The Biomedical War On The American Public

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

MAHA Hugger Mugger

"Those who perpetrated the greatest ruse in American presidential history by staging the Biden presidency will never tell us what their ultimate agenda was

- Victor Davis Hanson

One baseline truth in current American life is that our bodily well-being gets worse as the so-called health care industry gets ever-larger — it is now 17.6-percent of the economy (GDP). This is clearly the basis of the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) campaign that attached itself to the Trump 2.0 program. 

You hear almost no arguments against MAHA itself, even from the Party of Hustles and Hoaxes, but plenty of calumny and objurgation against MAHA’s chief advocate, Robert Kennedy, Jr.

Mr. Trump’s initial nominee for Surgeon General, Dr. Janette Nesheiwat was pulled last week just before her scheduled Senate confirmation hearing. Her credentials looked a bit sketchy — med school on the tiny Caribbean island of St. Maarten (say, what. . . ?) and other irregularities — which she confabulated about anyway. 

Plus, she was a Covid vaccine cheerleader and an avid advocate of the censorship campaign to slam down debate over it.

Which leads directly to a glaring quandary in President Trump’s current order-of-business: he has avoided engagement with the whole Covid fiasco that unspooled in the last year of his first term

Now, it is the opinion of this blog that Mr. Trump was played on Covid by blob-marshaled “experts” Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, who led the White House Covid “team,” and then snookered the president into Operation Warp Speed, appealing to his vanity to play the superhero. You can also surmise that the Covid operation was hatched to run Mr. Trump out of office by enabling epic election fraud, making a chump of him.

Other aspects of the Covid hairball are now finally getting unraveled, such as the lab origin issue and Dr. Fauci’s nefarious and vast operations to fund bioweapons. But the awful subject of the Covid mRNA vaccines, and all the monkey business around their development and deployment, remains taboo, even as Trump 2.0 sets records in smashing bureaucratic idols and radically shifting all sorts of policy — for instance, today’s monumental move to lower drug costs by 30 to 80 percent, using the Most Favored Nation trade policy device, which ties U.S. drug prices to the lowest prices paid by other high-income countries (e.g., Canada, Japan, or European nations) for the same medications.

But the Covid vaccine shots loom over the land like an ominous miasma that no one wants to talk about. The evidence has mounted steadily that the shots were ineffective and deeply harmful to many of the people who took them, especially those who got multiple boosters. The result, apparently, is a shocking rise in rare and aggressive cancers, immune system dysfunction, damage to the heart and blood vessels, neurological disorders, and much more. The CDC under “Joe Biden” worked desperately to hide all that, but it came out, anyway, because it was too big to hide.

81-percent of the US population submitted to the Covid vaccine shots. So, you can suppose that all that would be an extremely touchy matter. To admit all that scary information to the public arena would likely set off a politically dangerous fury. You can see why Mr. Trump would avoid going near it in the early going of his second term. But eventually he must come to terms with it.

Likewise, sooner or later, Bobby Kennedy, Jr., will have to take some kind of stand on the Covid vaccines, namely stopping the shots altogether. Whatever you think of the childhood vaccine schedule — a red-hot issue these days — it seems quite insane that the Covid mRNA vaccine is still included on it. It is still officially recommended by the CDC. Among the “much more” effects of the shots is damage to human fertility. You must ask: by giving these shots to kids as young as six-months, are we setting up a nation that won’t be able to have children? Pretty spooky.

Casey Means, the new nominee for US Surgeon General

So, the new nominee for Surgeon General is one Casey Means of the brother / sister team, Calley and Casey Means, known primarily as food safety advocate sidekicks to Bobby Kennedy. The Meanses were already under some suspicion for rising too rapidly into prominence from out of nowhere since the summer of 2024 when Mr. Kennedy began to swing over to the Trump campaign. They were suspected and criticized as the shills for some sort of sinister alliance between Silicon Valley, Big Pharma, and the US intel blob. The Meanses have adroitly avoided taking a position on the Covid vaccines. Hmmmm. . . . That’s the chatter, anyway — whether there’s any truth to it, we will have to stand-by to discover.

You’d have to ask yourself whether Mr. Kennedy would ally himself with people of supposedly sketchy character. Is he being used or played? Or maybe, it’s just not so. The nomination of Casey Means sent out shock-waves through MAGA and MAHA. Her credentials seemed a little sketchy like Janette Nesheiwat’s before her. Ms. Means dropped out of her five-year medical residency in Oregon a few months before completing it, apparently due to disillusionment with conventional medicine. She does not have an active medical license, supposedly required to serve as Surgeon General.

Instead, she transitioned into what is loosely called functional medicine, which rejects the oppressive “standards of practice” dictated by insurance companies and reliance on pharma products to alleviate symptoms rather than treat the causes of disease. Ms. Means also became a medical entrepreneur, starting Levels, a glucose-monitoring tech company, and is an Instagram “wellness influencer” with 750,000 followers. Given the gross racketeering aspects of conventional medicine and its failure to deal with the shocking rise in chronic disease, you might argue that Ms. Means made the right career moves, weird as they might seem superficially.

It’s pretty much a miracle that RFK, Jr., managed to land safely as Secretary of HHS and that he was able to enlist “medical freedom” advocates Jay Bhattacharya to run the National Institutes for Health and Marty Makary to run the Federal Drug Administration. This represents a stupendous turnaround in government policy. It’s also plausible that this new public health team has been preoccupied with personnel and administrative re-org in the first months of Trump 2.0. They’ve begun to nibble around the edges of the national health crisis, such as banning toxic food coloring.

They have yet to face the big, nasty legal questions such as revoking Pharma’s liability shield against lawsuits for its defective products, ending TV advertising of Pharma products — which is just an extortion racket for managing cable news content to protect Pharma — fully confronting the autism calamity and its connection to childhood vaccines, and, of course, pulling the Covid shots.

There is also chatter that RFK, Jr., is “managed” by hidden persons or forces. One not-so-hidden character in that psychodrama is Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA). Sen. Cassidy, a medical doctor, chairs the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee that ran Mr. Kennedy over-the-coals in his confirmation hearing. Political pressure caused Sen. Cassidy to cave and vote “yes” for RFK,Jr., then. Louisiana has since changed its election rules so that Democrats can no longer vote in the GOP primary, and Cassidy is vulnerable. His base is restless. He voted to impeach Mr. Trump in January 2021 over the Capitol J-6 riot.

So, the chatter says that Mr. Kennedy made a deal with Sen. Cassidy to avoid taking certain actions — like, anything that might hurt Pharma and its profit-stream — or else Mr. Kennedy would be dragged back in front of the HELP Committee and raked over the coals again. If that were to happen, I suspect Mr. Kennedy would handle himself very capably in any public hearing. He has always been in command of the facts.

As head of HHS, he has had access to a deep trove of information that he had no access to previously. He must know by now exactly what sort of mischief has been perpetrated in US public health over the decades and will not be shy about disclosing it publicly. 

You should also not be surprised if Mr. Kennedy begins issuing criminal referrals before much longer.

As for Casey Means. . . give her a chance to demonstrate that she is on the right side of MAHA and willing to fight in what has become a biomedical war on the American public.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 16:20

First Group Of White South Africans Depart For US Under Trump Admin's Refugee Plan

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First Group Of White South Africans Depart For US Under Trump Admin's Refugee Plan

Dozens of white South Africans departed their country for the United States on May 11 after being granted refugee status under the Trump administration’s new admission program.

About 49 Afrikaners - a white ethnic minority in South Africa - boarded a chartered flight bound for the District of Columbia, which will then fly to Texas, South African Transport Department spokesperson Collen Msibi said.

“One of the conditions of the permit was to ensure that they were vetted in case one of them has a criminal issue pending,” Msibi was quoted as saying by Reuters.

Aldgra Fredly reports via The Epoch Times, that this marked the first group of Afrikaners relocated to the United States under a refugee admissions program initiated under President Donald Trump’s Feb. 7 executive order that allows the resettlement of Afrikaner refugees “escaping government-sponsored race-based discrimination.”

That executive order was issued after South African President Cyril Ramaphosa signed the Expropriation Act into law in January, allowing the expropriation or redistribution of certain unused land. The law aims to address racial disparities in land ownership that stemmed from South Africa’s former apartheid system.

The nation’s government noted that special conditions must be met before expropriating land, including that it has had longtime informal occupants, is unused and owned purely for speculation, or was left abandoned.

In his executive order, Trump stated that Ramaphosa’s government has imposed countless policies “designed to dismantle equal opportunity in employment, education, and business, and hateful rhetoric and government actions fueling disproportionate violence against racially disfavored landowners.”

South Africa’s government has rejected the claims and called Washington’s move to resettle South Africans as refugees “entirely politically motivated.”

“We reiterate that allegations of discrimination are unfounded,” it stated

“Moreover, even if there are allegations of discrimination, it is our view that these do not meet the threshold of persecution required under domestic and international refugee law.”

However, the South African government said that it will not block departures of citizens who seek to leave the country, provided they comply with domestic laws.

Speaking to reporters on May 9, White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller said the current situation facing Afrikaners in South Africa amounts to “race-based persecution.”

“What was happening in South Africa fits the textbook definition of why the refugee program was created,” Miller said. 

“This is persecution based on a protected characteristic. In this case, race.”

Trump announced in March that the United States would cut all federal funding to South Africa over its expropriation laws and pledged to resettle white South African farmers affected by the law.

The White House stated in a summary of Trump’s executive order on Feb. 10 that the United States will stop aid and assistance if South Africa “continues to support bad actors on the world stage and allows violent attacks on innocent disfavored minority farmers.”

The Epoch Times has reached out to the State Department for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 15:40

US Crypto Funds Smash Old Record Amid 4-Week Inflow Streak

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US Crypto Funds Smash Old Record Amid 4-Week Inflow Streak

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

Cryptocurrency investment products continued receiving healthy inflows last week, attracting $882 million as global crypto funds approached all-time high asset levels.

Global crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) recorded $6.3 billion of inflows in the past four weeks, accounting for 93% of total inflows year-to-date (YTD), according to data from European crypto investment firm CoinShares.

Total YTD inflows now stand at $6.7 billion, closing in on the record $7.3 billion posted in early February, according to CoinShares’ head of research James Butterfill.

Weekly crypto ETP inflows since late 2024. Source: CoinShares

Amid strong investor demand, crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States reached a record $62.9 billion in cumulative net inflows since launch in January 2024, surpassing the previous high of $61.6 billion set in February, Butterfill noted in a May 12 fund flows update.

Total AUM nears historic record of $173 billion

The continued inflow streak has brought total assets under management (AUM) in global crypto funds to $169 billion, just 2.5% below the historic record of $173.3 billion seen in the last week of January, according to CoinShares data.

However, the latest $882 million of inflows were a notable cooldown from $2 billion seen in the first week of May and $3.4 billion posted in the last week of April.

Bitcoin dominated with $867 million in inflows in the past week, with YTD inflows reaching $6.6 billion and AUM rising to $146 billion.

Crypto ETP flows by asset as of May 10, 2025 (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinShares

Inflows to Ether investment products were less significant, posting $1.5 million inflows, with AUM edging up to $12 billion.

Sui was the biggest winner among altcoins, with Sui ETPs seeing $11.7 million of inflows last week.

Solana was the only altcoin to see outflows last week, totaling $3.4 million and dragging month-to-date outflows to $2.9 million.

 

BlackRock’s iShares outstrip total inflows

According to CoinShares, crypto fund inflows were again highly concentrated in BlackRock’s iShares products, which saw $1 billion of inflows last week.

Year-to-date, BlackRock has attracted $8.1 billion in inflows, significantly exceeding the industry’s total of $6.7 billion.

Grayscale and Bitwise continued to see outflows, losing $168 million and $27 million respectively during the past week. Fidelity and ARK reversed previous negative trends, reporting inflows of $62 million and $46 million, respectively.

Crypto ETP flows by issuer as of May 10, 2025 (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinShares

Bullish trend driven by rise in money supply, macro factors

The ongoing bullish trend in the crypto ETP industry came amid a rally in the cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 for the first time since January on May 8.

Amid the growing investor sentiment, the total crypto market capitalization surged to nearly $3.5 trillion, down 11% from the historic high of $3.9 trillion posted in mid-December 2024, according to data from CoinGecko.

“We believe the sharp increase in both prices and inflows is driven by a combination of factors: a global rise in M2 money supply, stagflationary risks in the US and several US states approving Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset,” CoinShares’ Butterfill wrote.

Bitcoin traded at $104,407 at the time of publication, slightly down from a historic high above $106,000 posted on Dec. 17, 2024.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 15:20

Trump Rallies GOP To Back 'Big, Beautiful Bill' As House Releases 389-Page Text

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Trump Rallies GOP To Back 'Big, Beautiful Bill' As House Releases 389-Page Text

President Donald Trump on Monday called on congressional Republicans to unify behind what he hailed as his "ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL," a sweeping legislative package that merges tax cuts, immigration reforms, and a raft of domestic priorities into a single reconciliation measure.

"This week the Republicans are meeting in the Tax, Energy, and Agriculture Committees on major pieces of 'THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL,'" Mr. Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform, urging lawmakers to stand behind House committee chairs Jason Smith of Ways and Means, Brett Guthrie of Energy and Commerce, and Glenn "GT" Thompson of Agriculture. "We must WIN! But now, with the tremendous Drug and Pharmaceutical Cuts, plus massive incoming Tariff Money, our 'GREAT, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL' just got much BIGGER and BETTER. The Golden Age of America will soon be upon us."

The comments, made just before Mr. Trump’s planned trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, came as his administration unveiled an executive action to lower pharmaceutical drug prices by up to 90% under a new "Most Favored Nations" pricing policy. He also lashed out at Democrats, accusing them of trying to "DESTROY our Country" by offering amendments to the bill prior to his press conference.

"When I return from the Middle East, where great things will happen for America, we will work together on any and all outstanding issues," Mr. Trump added. "But there shouldn’t be many — The Bill is GREAT."

Despite the urgency in his messaging, progress on Capitol Hill has been slow. Lawmakers have sent just five bills to Mr. Trump’s desk this Congress. Still, Speaker Mike Johnson is aiming to change that, setting a Memorial Day deadline to pass the reconciliation package through the House. GOP leadership hopes to finalize the bill by July 4 — a timeline that coincides with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s request for a debt-limit increase included in the package.

GOP Draft Released

On Monday, the house GOP released a draft of the bill (full text below)- which confirms several core policy pillars previously signaled by leadership. Among the most consequential is a 5% remittance tax on international money transfers, designed to fund border security, which includes a new refundable credit for verified U.S. senders and strict compliance rules.

In a significant rollback of Biden-era environmental policy, the bill would terminate or phase out numerous clean energy tax credits, including for residential solar, new energy-efficient homes, and hydrogen production, with sharp limits on components sourced from "prohibited foreign entities"—primarily targeting Chinese supply chains.

The legislation also introduces a new federal income tax deduction for qualified tips and overtime compensation through 2028, aimed at working-class earners. However, these benefits explicitly exclude high earners, service-sector owners, and nontraditional tipping industries, and require both the employee and spouse to have Social Security numbers to qualify—adding a compliance hurdle that could reignite partisan fights over ID requirements.

Beyond those provisions, the bill extends provisions from the 2017 Trump tax law, including the higher estate and gift tax exemptions and the limitation on the deduction of state and local taxes (SALT), with a modified $30,000 cap for individuals that phases down for high earners. This could fuel renewed conflict with blue-state Republicans still pushing for full repeal.

The bill further includes a new cap on the tax benefit of itemized deductions, revives limitations on casualty loss and moving expense deductions, and eliminates miscellaneous itemized deductions altogether—provisions likely to draw sharp resistance from Democrats, particularly those representing high-cost-of-living states.

Other notable points:

  • A tax break on overtime through 2028
  • Raises the debt limit by $4 trillion
  • Creates tax-exempt "MAGA" savings accounts for kids
  • Does not include the new millionaire tax bracket
  • Limits, or terminates, the tax benefit of itemized deductions
  • Requires a certificate to claim the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), and imposes penalties for fraudulent misstatements
  • Terminates the IRS's direct file program
  • Terminates tax-exempt status for any organization that supports terrorist organizations
  • Increases penalties for unauthorized disclosure of taxpayer information to $250,000 or 10 years imprisonment
  • Permanently extends the expanded child tax credit and requires social security numbers to claim it.
  • Permanently increases the qualified business income deduction from 20% to 23%.
  • Permanently limits the deduction of gambling losses to the extent of winnings
Key Committees Begin Markups Amid Policy Flashpoints

Meanwhile, three powerful House panels - Ways and Means, Energy and Commerce, and Agriculture - are scheduled to mark up their portions of the bill this week. House Budget is expected to consolidate the legislation ahead of its presentation to the Rules Committee for a floor vote next week, according to Punchbowl News.

Ways and Means released the initial tax draft Friday, with a more comprehensive version expected later Monday. The package proposes new taxes on university endowments and a controversial remittance tax on international money transfers, aimed at funding border enforcement. Republicans have opted not to pursue a new tax bracket for the ultra-wealthy despite Trump’s earlier suggestions.

Significant modifications to clean energy credits from the Inflation Reduction Act are also included. The bill proposes repealing electric vehicle tax credits by year’s end, phasing out others over time, and adding sourcing requirements that effectively exclude Chinese components. Transferability of credits would also be curtailed.

*  *  *

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Satisfaction guaranteed. Simply ask for a refund... Health Care Cuts and AI Preemption Spark Backlash

The Energy and Commerce Committee released its bill late Sunday, drawing ire from both the right and the center. The lack of changes to Medicaid’s FMAP formula and the absence of per capita caps angered conservatives, while moderates remained cautious.

A Congressional Budget Office analysis released by Democrats estimated that the bill’s health provisions would reduce federal spending by $715 billion over a decade but leave 13.7 million more Americans uninsured. Representative Frank Pallone Jr. (D-N.J.) called the proposal "catastrophic."

The bill also proposes a 10-year moratorium on most state-level regulations targeting artificial intelligence, a potential boon for tech companies but a likely flashpoint under the Senate’s Byrd Rule. Additionally, the bill tasks the Commerce Department and FCC with identifying 600 MHz of spectrum for auction while shielding certain defense-related frequencies from commercial use.

SALT Showdown Threatens GOP Unity

Speaker Johnson faces a crucial test Monday morning as he meets with blue-state Republicans and the Ways and Means Committee over the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap. Lawmakers including Representatives Elise Stefanik, Mike Lawler, Nick LaLota, Andrew Garbarino, and Young Kim have rejected a proposed $30,000 cap, citing political peril in their districts - which is in the draft released today.

Ms. Stefanik, who opposed the 2017 tax law over the SALT cap, has a fraught relationship with Johnson. Mr. Lawler is reportedly weighing a gubernatorial bid and represents a swing district. Mr. Garbarino has warned publicly that a weak SALT deal could cost him reelection. Mr. LaLota has been under pressure over Medicaid cuts, while Ms. Kim has staked her brand on delivering relief for California homeowners.

If no action is taken, the existing SALT cap will expire in January, potentially increasing pressure on lawmakers - and giving holdouts leverage.

Some Republican leaders believe the SALT debate could derail the entire reconciliation effort unless Johnson can peel off enough support from within the dissenting group.

SNAP Overhaul in the Agriculture Bill

Tuesday evening, the Agriculture Committee is set to mark up its section of the bill, including proposed cost-shifting of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) to states. The package also incorporates key provisions of the bipartisan farm bill, repackaged to meet reconciliation rules. Moderates such as Representative Don Bacon (R-Neb.) have signaled support after early hesitation.

House Republicans are wagering heavily on the success of this legislative push, seeking to widen and extend provisions from Mr. Trump’s 2017 tax law while slashing major components of the social safety net. With only eight legislative days left before the recess and no guarantee the Senate will follow suit, GOP leaders face a politically fraught balancing act.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 15:00

U.S., China Reach Agreement To Lower Tariffs In 90-Day Cool-Off Period

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U.S., China Reach Agreement To Lower Tariffs In 90-Day Cool-Off Period

Update (0958ET):

During a Monday morning press conference, President Trump told reporters that trade negotiations have led to a "total reset" in U.S.-China relations. He added that he may speak with President Xi Jinping later this week.

More headlines from Trump's press conference (courtesy of Bloomberg):

  • TRUMP: Total Reset With China

  • TRUMP: No Decoupling With China

  • TRUMP: Doesn’t Include Cars, Steel, Aluminum

  • TRUMP: Will Speak to Xi Maybe at End of Week

  • TRUMP: China Deal 'Not the Easiest Thing to Paper'

 

*   *   * 

Update (0812ET):

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared on Bloomberg TV to discuss the newly announced 90-day suspension of most tariffs between the United States and China.

Below is a summary of key takeaways from the interview, as reported by Bloomberg:

  • BESSENT: BOTH SIDES AGREE WE DON’T WANT GENERALIZED DECOUPLING

  • BESSENT: PHASE ONE TRADE DEAL WITH CHINA OFFERED A TEMPLATE

  • BESSENT: WILL SEE WHERE THE FINAL CHINA RECIPROCAL TARIFF ENDS

  • BESSENT: CURRENT TARIFF LEVEL FOR CHINA IS A ‘FLOOR’

  • BESSENT: APRIL 2 LEVEL WOULD BE A CEILING FOR CHINA

  • BESSENT: NOW HAVE A PROCESS IN PLACE TO AVOID CHINA ESCALATION

  • BESSENT: IMPLAUSIBLE TARIFFS ON CHINA GO BELOW 10%

  • BESSENT: WANT TO SEE CHINA BOOST CONSUMPTION, OPEN THEIR MARKET

  • BESSENT: CHINA MET PHASE-ONE OBLIGATIONS UNTIL BIDEN NEGLECT

  • BESSENT: ESCALATORY TARIFFS WERE LIKE US–CHINA EMBARGO

  • BESSENT: CAN ALWAYS GO BACK TO APRIL 2 LEVEL FOR CHINA TARIFFS

  • BESSENT: SEE PHONE CALL BEFORE MEETING FOR TRUMP AND XI

  • BESSENT: IF CHINA ACTS, PERHAPS FENTANYL TARIFF COULD COME DOWN

  • BESSENT: NOT PUSHING FOR DEATH PENALTY ON FENTANYL PRODUCTION

*   *   * 

China and the U.S. moved to ease trade tensions early Monday, agreeing to a temporary 90-day reduction in reciprocal tariffs on each other's goods, according to a joint statement released by both governments on X. The accord, viewed as a breakthrough in a multi-month trade war between the world's two largest economies, helped spark a rally in global markets: S&P 500 futures rose 3%, while Nasdaq futures gained 4%. European markets also advanced, and the U.S. dollar strengthened. U.S. government bonds sold as investors rotated back into equities and other risk-sensitive assets. 

The joint statement said that the U.S. will reduce levies on most Chinese imports from 145% to 30% by Wednesday. 

Here's a summary of the U.S. actions:

The United States will remove the additional tariffs it imposed on China on April 8 and April 9, 2025, but will retain all duties imposed on China prior to April 2, 2025, including Section 301 tariffs, Section 232 tariffs, tariffs imposed in response to the fentanyl national emergency invoked pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and Most Favored Nation tariffs.

  • The United States will suspend its 34% reciprocal tariff imposed on April 2, 2025 for 90 days, but retain a 10% tariff during the period of the pause.

  • The 10% tariff continues to set a fair baseline that encourages domestic production, strengthens our supply chains and ensures that American trade policy supports American workers first, instead of undercutting them.

  • By imposing reciprocal tariffs, President Trump is ensuring our trade policy works for the American economy, addresses our national emergency brought on by our growing and persistent trade deficit, and levels the playing field for American workers and producers.

  • Unlike previous administrations, President Trump took a tough, uncompromising stance on China to protect American interests and stop unfair trade practices.

The breakthrough in the talks also led to China reducing its 125% tariff on U.S. goods to 10%. 

Here's a summary of the Chinese actions:

China will remove the retaliatory tariffs it announced since April 4, 2025, and will also suspend or remove the non-tariff countermeasures taken against the United States since April 2, 2025.

  • China will also suspend its initial 34% tariff on the United States it announced on April 4, 2025 for 90 days, but will retain a 10% tariff during the period of the pause.

The joint statement indicated that Monday's agreement would pave the way for further negotiations between senior officials. On the U.S. side, talks are being led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, while Vice Premier He Lifeng will represent China... 

After taking the aforementioned actions, the Parties will establish a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations. The representative from the Chinese side for these discussions will be He Lifeng, Vice Premier of the State Council, and the representatives from the U.S. side will be Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury, and Jamieson Greer, United States Trade Representative. These discussions may be conducted alternately in China and the United States, or a third country upon agreement of the Parties. As required, the two sides may conduct working-level consultations on relevant economic and trade issues.

The White House wrote on X that these trade talks will address America's trade imbalances:

  • The U.S. goods trade deficit with China was $295.4 billion in 2024—the largest with any trading partner.

  • Today's agreement works toward addressing these imbalances to deliver real, lasting benefits to American workers, famers, and businesses.

The talks also addressed the ongoing fentanyl crisis.

  • The United States and China will take aggressive actions to stem the flow of fentanyl and other precursors from China to illicit drug producers in North America.

Shortly after the joint statement was released, Bessent, who led the American delegation at the talks, told reporters in Geneva that both sides have "substantially moved down the tariff levels" and "neither side wants a decoupling." 

"We had a very robust and productive discussion on steps forward on fentanyl," Bessent added, pointing out that those talks might lead to "purchasing agreements" by China.

Commenting on markets, Benedicte Lowe, an equity and derivatives strategist at BNP Paribas Markets 360, told Bloomberg TV that "deescalation was much better than expected by the market" and "for the next couple of days I would expect a bullish environment in the global equity market."

Last week, President Trump floated the "80% Tariff on China seems right!" trial balloon on Truth Social, noting that the final decision rests with Bessent.

"In our view, equity markets are returning to where they would have moved to if Liberation Day had not happened and Trump had just applied the 10% universal tariff," said Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank. 

Scholtes noted, "Corporate fundamentals are healthy, first quarter results have substantially surprised on the upside, and there's plenty of cash to be invested."

"This deescalation is much more positive than anticipated (GSe: 54% U.S. on China tariffs and 34% China on U.S. tariffs) and the market is reacting as such. We are seeing a clear reversal in short USD positions as U.S. recession risks reduce (GSe was 45%!) and risk-on sentiment rises. DXY rallied over 1%, S&P futures surged 3%, 10y UST rose to 4.43%, gold tumbled ~3%," Goldman analyst Yichin Tsai told clients. 

S&P 500 futures are up 3%, and Nasdaq futures are up 4%. European stocks are in the green. 

The move toward lower tariffs and easing trade tensions between the world's two largest economies follows Sunday's negotiations, during which both sides reported making "substantial progress."

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 14:45

The Decivilizing Of America

Zero Hedge -

The Decivilizing Of America

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Secure borders and stationary populations were considered the mark of emerging civilization by classical historians. In contrast to nomadism and constant strife over disputed territory, peoples who had clearly defined and protected borders ascended to statehood, maintained a distinct culture, and achieved greater prosperity and security.

In contrast, what we suffered from 2021 to 2025 was unprecedented.

It was an intentional administration effort to de-civilize the nation by destroying its borders—as if to return to the premodern era, when there were no clearly defined or secure borders, and nomadic peoples migrated as they pleased.

Stranger still, illegal aliens were at times given precedence over citizens—as immigration law was simply discarded.

Without IDs, illegal aliens boarded U.S. flights, while the government ordered citizens to obtain more secure “real” IDs.

Some 8,500 veteran soldiers were drummed out of the military for refusing the experimental mRNA vaccinations. Yet 10 million simply walked across the southern border into America, without a care from the Biden administration whether they were vaccinated, ill, or had criminal records.

Any American citizen pulled over for speeding with an invalid driver’s license, while trafficking eight illegal aliens without identification, would be jailed and charged with felony counts. Not Abrego Garcia—the violent spousal abuser, M-13 gang-member, and previously deported illegal alien. He was neither arrested nor even cited by the officers who pulled him over.

One of the great hallmarks of Roman civilization and subsequent Western civilization was its ability to create large cities by importing clean water, removing waste through sewers, and collecting garbage from the streets. Even in the age before microbiology, ancient and premodern city planners knew the connection between cleanliness and epidemics and how to lessen disease through sanitation.

But in the last two decades, our major cities have been de-civilizing. Citizens are told not to flush non-biodegradable plastics down their toilets, both to preserve the environment and to ensure municipal septic systems work properly. They are reminded to pick up their pets’ excrement on sidewalks and in parks. For purposes of collective health, they are taught not to urinate, spit, or defecate in public areas.

Is all that for naught? After all, our mayors and city councils in our biggest and most iconic cities simply destroyed centuries of such health protocols and allowed tens of thousands of homeless people with impunity to inject, urinate, defecate, and fornicate in or on storefronts, streets, gutters, parks, and sidewalks. The stench, flotsam, and jetsam have utterly transformed American inner cities. Central Seattle, Los Angeles, parts of San Francisco, Portland, and Washington, DC, now resemble medieval London or Paris—as if a millennium-long knowledge of basic public health was simply ignored or mocked. In truth, the centers of America’s big cities are spaces where public health protocols are no longer enforced, where all the ancient and hard-won rules of civilization no longer apply. It would likely be safer to walk through Dickensian London of 1850 than to take a nocturnal ride on the New York subway.

Another hallmark of Western civilization was the creation of a judiciary that gave the state the power to enforce laws, ensure justice, and deter criminals by swift punishment, unaffected by ideology, bias, bribes, and personal vendettas. 

From the law codes of Justinian to the American Constitution, ascendant civilizations rose with a codified legal system applied uniformly, disinterestedly, and fairly.

Not any longer. Ideology has turned the American legal system into a commissariat of sorts in which relativism is now the norm. Vandalize a Tesla in a blue state and, like the South of old, the laws will be lightly if even enforced and applied selectively. No one seriously believes that Alvin Bragg, Letitia James, Jack Smith, and Fani Willis were interested in real crimes rather than concocting them to destroy a presidential candidate and thus warp the political system. In contemporary America, it was far more likely to suffer a jail sentence for walking peaceably but unlawfully in the Capitol than for torching a federal courthouse, historic church, or police precinct in the summer of 2020.

From the ancient world to the medieval city to the modern era, universities were catalysts for the advance of science, medicine, law, politics, and the humanities. 

Their civilizing missions were predicated on two unquestioned assumptions. One, unlike prior superstitions, inductive reason would guide intellectual inquiry; examining all evidence would lead to general conclusions rather than cherry-picking data to “prove” predetermined dogmas.

Today, DEI, the Green New Deal, and the “critical theories”—legal, race, and monetary—in the university start with deductive reasoning and then warp evidence to support such faith-based dogmas. 

If any of the current violent pro-Hamas and anti-Semitic campus protests were instead directed at reducing abortion, ensuring that biological men do not compete in women’s sports, or banning racial preferences, the protestors would have long ago been arrested, expelled, or deported.

Tribalism was a premodern obstacle to civilization. It remains so in many parts of the Middle East, where it is routine to hire, promote, retain, and reward on the basis of kinship and bloodlines. In America, we were supposed to have a singular meritocracy, civilization’s effort to ensure that those with the most expertise and experience were charged with the most important tasks and responsibilities to ensure the safety and welfare of the majority. Race, religion, gender, and sexual orientation were neither rewarded nor punished.

Instead, we here, too, returned to premodern tribalism and race quotas, regressing to precivilization ideas that we owe our allegiance first to those who share a superficial appearance rather than to the body politic at large.

Finally, civilizations were often judged by their physical infrastructures—whether iconic, like the Parthenon, the Pantheon, medieval cathedrals, or modern towering skyscrapers, or practical by their roads, aqueducts, government buildings, and water and sewage systems.

But by that standard, too, we are decivilizing. Future generations will be amazed at California’s decaying high-speed rail to nowhere. Tens of billions of dollars and over a decade after the start of construction, there is still not a single foot of track laid, but instead only half-finished massive concrete overpasses that now resemble half-destroyed Mycenean palace walls. The nearly one-billion-dollar, half-finished, five-year-old Obama library resembles an oversized Stonehenge monolith.

In California, we do not just blow up dams, the brilliant work of a now-forgotten earlier generation. Instead, we use public bond funds, voted by the citizens to build new dams and reservoirs, to destroy them.

The more California requires lumber for new homes, fuel for its 31 million vehicles, and energy for its 15 million homes, the more the governor and legislature decivilize the state by shutting down timber companies, forcing oil refineries to flee the state, and closing nuclear power plants and fossil fuel generation, while witnessing replacement, new-age battery-power generation plants blow up into flames.

When preventable fires consume whole neighborhoods of Los Angeles, a paralytic government has no clue how to rebuild the work of past generations. The city government of Los Angeles proved uncannily efficient in ensuring such conflagration—canceling preventive brush clearing, the mayor junketing in Africa during fire season, reservoirs left empty, hydrants that did not work—but cannot rebuild, only destroy.

Why is America decivilizing?

In part, our mediocre schools have not produced competent stewards to maintain and expand the sophisticated infrastructure and ethos of a prior, far more capable generation.

In part, the sheer richness of our inheritance lulled our Lotus-Eater generations to consume what they inherited rather than reinvest it, given that since birth they had been insulated from the elemental and unchanging human and natural challenges to civilization.

And in part, a nihilism arose that despised the hard work of civilization and instead romanticized the wild—clueless that natural man, without the bridles of civilization, is a very dangerous beast, as we so often and lamentably see today.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 14:25

Trump Moves To Rescind Appliance Efficiency Standards

Zero Hedge -

Trump Moves To Rescind Appliance Efficiency Standards

President Donald Trump on May 9 moved to rescind appliance energy efficiency standards, calling them “unnecessary radical green agenda policies.”

In a memo to the secretary of the Department of Energy, Trump said, “Water conservation requirements for faucets, showers, bathtubs, and toilets ... make bathroom appliances more expensive and less functional.” 

“‘Efficiency’ standards render other American appliances like clothes washers and dishwashers less useful, more breakable, and more expensive to repair,” the White House said in a fact sheet on Trump’s memo. “The Federal Government should not impose or enforce regulations that make taxpayers’ lives worse.”

As Joseph Lord reports for The Epoch Times, the memo orders Energy Secretary Chris Wright to review and rescind rules limiting water use in showerheads, faucets, dishwashers, toilets, urinals, and washing machines, or return these rules to the bare minimum required by the Energy Policy Act of 1992.

The executive order will have a major effect on the Energy Star program, which is managed by the EPA in coordination with the Department of Energy. Under the program, the EPA establishes energy efficiency guidelines, and appliances in a given category that meet these specifications can display the ENERGY STAR logo.

Trump said that his directive would help increase the effectiveness of bathroom products, saying that standards imposed in the aftermath of the 1992 legislation had reduced consumer choice and made products less functional than they were before the legislation.

“Ultra-efficient washing machines cost at least $100 more according to the Department of Energy,” the White House fact sheet states. “Updated dishwasher regulations caused those appliances to take two hours or more to complete a normal load of dishes—about twice the time of pre-standards models.”

Earlier, on Jan. 20, Trump signed an executive order to “safeguard the American people’s freedom to choose from a variety of goods and appliances, including but not limited to lightbulbs, dishwashers, washing machines, gas stoves, water heaters, toilets, and shower heads.”

The same day, Trump signed several measures passed by Congress under the Congressional Review Act repealing rules from President Joe Biden’s administration related to energy efficiency.

The measures repealed regulations on gas water heaters and walk-in coolers and freezers, as well as energy conservation standards for some appliances and some consumer products and commercial freezers.

“It’s all about common sense,” Trump said as he signed the legislation while flanked by Republican lawmakers.

The rescission comes amid an ongoing reorganization of the EPA under Director Lee Zeldin.

In a video, Zeldin said that before the Trump administration, the regulatory agency was spending $63 billion “including all sorts of political green slush funds”—although it cost only about $8 billion to $10 billion to run the agency.

“This reorganization will bring much needed efficiencies to incorporate science into our rulemakings and sharply focus our work on providing the cleanest air, land, and water for our communities. It will also save at least $300 million annually for the American people,” Zeldin said.

Such an exclusive focus on air, land, and water cleanliness is a departure from the focus on climate change that has defined the agency in the past, and fits into Trump’s larger commitment to reducing regulations that the president has said harm American energy production and use.

*  *  *

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Satisfaction guaranteed. Simply ask for a refund... Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 14:05

Kurdish Militant Group PKK Disbands After 40-Year Conflict With Turkey

Zero Hedge -

Kurdish Militant Group PKK Disbands After 40-Year Conflict With Turkey

Via Middle East Eye

The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) on Monday announced its decision to disband and end its armed struggle, following a call in February by its imprisoned leader Abdullah Ocalan.

The Kurdish armed group, which has waged a war against Turkey since the 1980s, said that it had completed its "historic mission" and brought the Kurdish question to a point where it could be resolved through democratic politics.

Flags showing the face of Abdullah Ocalan, the leader of the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK), via AFP.

The group said Ocalan should be allowed to manage the disbandment process. It also requested solid and integrated legal guarantees to ensure the success of their decision.

"At this stage, it is important for the Grand National Assembly of Turkey to play its role with historical responsibility," the PKK's statement said.

"Similarly, we call on all political parties represented in the parliament, especially the government and the main opposition party, and civil society organizations to take responsibility and participate in the peace and democratic society process."

This historic announcement came after a 40-year-long conflict between Turkey and the PKK. The group initially sought Kurdish independence but later shifted its goal to autonomy and greater rights for Kurds within Turkey.

Over the decades, various governments, including that of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, attempted to resolve the issue through legal settlements, but these efforts were unsuccessful, and tens of thousands of lives were lost.

Since 2016, Ankara has managed to corner the PKK in northern Iraq by employing sophisticated technology such as drones and signal intelligence capabilities, as well as establishing dozens of military outposts that restrict the group's freedom of movement and infiltration across the border.

A source familiar with the matter told Middle East Eye that the PKK's announcement was initially set to be released on Friday, as the government had made some preparations, but internal PKK bureaucracy delayed its release.

Ocalan, 76, stated in his February address that the armed struggle was a product of a bygone era and that Kurds must seek their rights by participating in democratic societies within nation states.

Following his call, the Syrian Democratic Forces, a US-armed group led by PKK offshoots in Syria, then struck a deal with the new Damascus government, promising to return control of state institutions to the central administration.

Ocalan’s call came after Turkish nationalist leader and key Erdogan ally, Devlet Bahceli, asked the PKK leader last year to disband his group, potentially in return for being released into house arrest.

Talks with Kurdish DEM party

Since then, Bahceli has promised greater democratization in Turkey through phone conversations with the pro-Kurdish DEM Party. The government’s talks with Kurdish opposition groups have also divided the country’s opposition, as they come when popular Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu has been jailed and anti-Erdogan protests have been cracked down on.

Ankara insiders now expect the PKK and Turkish intelligence to announce specifics on how the group will return its arms and formally disband. Turkish officials, speaking on condition of anonymity earlier this year, told MEE that legal studies were underway to allow PKK members who have not participated in armed attacks to be welcomed back to the country.

Some officials speculate that the PKK leadership will either remain in northern Iraq, potentially in Sulaymaniyah, or be allowed to relocate to Europe in exile.

The DEM Party also expects the government to release thousands of its members imprisoned on non-violent charges and to end the practice of unseating its popularly elected mayors. A key demand is the release of Selahattin Demirtas, a Kurdish-Turkish politician who has been incarcerated since 2016.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 13:45

Mexico Sues Google Over 'Gulf of America' Label As Sheinbaum Pushes Back On Trump Renaming Order

Zero Hedge -

Mexico Sues Google Over 'Gulf of America' Label As Sheinbaum Pushes Back On Trump Renaming Order

The Mexican government has filed a legal complaint against Google after the tech giant adopted U.S. government terminology labeling the Gulf of Mexico as the "Gulf of America" on its Maps platform for users inside the United States.

President Claudia Sheinbaum announced the lawsuit this week, denouncing the renaming as an overreach of U.S. territorial claims and a disregard for Mexico's sovereignty over its own coastal waters.

"Google is already being sued. There has already been a first resolution, and it is awaited," Sheinbaum said at a press conference. "What we are saying is that Google should put Gulf of America where it is Gulf of America, which is the part that corresponds to the territory of the United States, and put Gulf of Mexico to the territorial part that corresponds to Mexico and Cuba."

The dispute stems from a directive issued by President Donald Trump shortly after taking office in which he renamed the Gulf of Mexico to the "Gulf of America." Trump characterized the change as a tribute to "American greatness," despite the gulf's original name having been in continuous use since the 16th century.

While the order carries no international legal weight, Google has complied with the U.S. government's naming directive within its American-facing services, citing longstanding internal policy to follow official U.S. geographic naming standards via the federal Geographic Names Information System (GNIS).

Mexico's Foreign Ministry had previously issued letters to Google urging the company not to apply the new name to Mexican territorial waters. Those appeals were unsuccessful, prompting the current legal action.

Though symbolic in nature, the case reflects growing tensions between Sheinbaum's administration and Washington, particularly over questions of cultural identity, regional sovereignty, and the influence of American tech companies abroad.

The name change has also sparked political controversy in the U.S. In February, the White House barred the Associated Press from the press pool for continuing to refer to the waterway as the Gulf of Mexico, accusing the news agency of "defying official nomenclature."

President Trump had advocated for the new name since before taking office, after Sheinbaum - then Mexico City's mayor - jokingly proposed rebranding North America as "Mexican America," referencing a phrase in an early draft of Mexico's constitution. That quip reportedly prompted Trump's advisers to push the Gulf renaming as a direct rebuke.

Sheinbaum has satirically suggested renaming North America as "Mexican America"Image: Alfredo Estrella/AFP

While Trump's executive order applies only to U.S. federal agencies and does not require recognition by other countries or international bodies, Mexico's legal complaint could set a precedent in challenging the global reach of U.S. policies via digital platforms.

A spokesperson for Google declined to comment on the pending litigation but reiterated the company's policy of aligning map labels with official government data in each region.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 13:25

Financial Media's Tariff Incontinence: A Retrospective

Zero Hedge -

Financial Media's Tariff Incontinence: A Retrospective

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Remember just one month ago when the media was acting like tariffs were a guarantee of 100 years of famine, plague and pestilence? Well tomorrow the stock market is going to be well on its way toward all-time highs, again.

Tom Lee will look like a genius and bears will look like morons. You know the drill. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.

My readers will remember that just about a month ago, after “Liberation Day,” I made the case that the mainstream financial media’s panic and histrionics over President Trump’s tariffs were equal parts embarrassing and pointless.

I argued the age-old point that “you can’t make an omelette without breaking some eggs” and that the discomfort making these so-called “financial professionals” squirm in their seats—and even audibly cry out for help—was actually proof that what President Trump set out to do, recalibrate the world stage and redefine how people think about global trade, was working.

In fact, I titled my article accordingly.

Your Discomfort Means It's Working

Your Discomfort Means It's Working

I thought the media’s behavior was ridiculous for a couple of reasons. First, as I said, how can anyone expect meaningful change without experiencing some temporary discomfort? Second, I found it downright embarrassing how the slightest downtick in the stock market—a market that has arguably been overvalued for decades—immediately sent analysts and media personalities into a full-blown panic over tariffs before they even went into effect, and certainly before we’d had any chance to negotiate deals.

My stance was simple: “Everybody calm the hell down and let’s just wait and see what happens.” I found it hilarious that people acted as though these tariffs would remain in place for eternity and that the seeds of America’s demise had already been sown for the next hundred years.

I wrote at the time:

America was a country founded by rugged individuals, but there’s nothing rugged about throwing a fit because your NASDAQ investment, up 150% over the last 5 years, is down 5% today — especially when the “problem” likely will be resolved to some degree within a matter of weeks, if not months.

I argued that patience was in order—and that, given time, deals would start falling into place.

And lo and behold, that’s exactly what’s happening. While final, fully inked deals haven’t yet crossed the finish line, we’ve already held constructive talks with Canada and have a framework in place with the United Kingdom. Negotiations continue with countries like India and Japan, who I originally expected would be among the first to reach agreements.

But the biggest surprise came this weekend, when, after barely two days of negotiations, the United States and China appear to have agreed on a framework for a trade deal. To quote Agent Paul Smecker: “CNBC, we’ll start the ass kissing with you.”

Like everyone else, I assumed China would be the toughest nut to crack and the last to make a deal—not only because they’re seasoned negotiators, but also because they represent a massive portion of America’s imports. And trust me, I was just as skeptical as anyone about the Trump administration’s Sunday claim that things were going well—until I saw Chinese officials echo those very same sentiments.

While a finalized deal isn’t 100% complete yet, both sides have come forward with statements that can only be described as optimistic.

At this point, it’s hard to deny that tangible progress has been made.

This, of course, is great news for the stock market, which will likely rally on Monday. One of the biggest market unknowns has been partially resolved, and nothing ignites the animal spirits of the market like a major geopolitical win.

But beyond that, it’s simply a deliciously prompt resolution to a problem the media insisted would be a long-term economic catastrophe.

All I said a month ago was “hold on and let’s see what happens.” And here we are, a mere month later—without any meaningful shortages or real discomfort in our daily lives—and the “problem” is well on its way to being solved.

Oh, and did I mention that with every new deal we strike, the United States is in a stronger position than it was just two months ago?

Sure, there will always be cynics and skeptics who want to argue the ins and outs of these deals, pointing to data that suggests only minuscule gains for the U.S. or marginal concessions from foreign nations. But the simple fact is the posture this gives the United States—and President Trump—on the global stage is one of leverage, power, and respect.

Let the cynics fill in whatever narrative suits their agenda. But for better or worse, Trump’s administration went to bat for the United States and brought home better deals than we had just a month ago. If you want to argue the minutiae of how much better these deals are, go ahead.

I’ll be too busy savoring the sweet, intoxicating catnip of the mainstream media’s buffoonery from a month ago.

As I’ve said many times before, I still believe the stock market is overvalued—and with this week’s rally, it will remain so. I made that case clearly in my market review earlier this month, which you can read here:

 May 2025 Market Review

Trading The Sh*t Show: May 2025 Market Review

But the real lesson here is this: The next time the mainstream financial media is in full-blown financial panic mode, hold your head high, keep your cool, and remind yourself that compared to them, you’re the institutional investor in the room.

And if you do that, you might just find yourself standing calmly amidst the chaos… right in the middle of a money-making opportunity.

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page hereThis post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 13:10

Republicans Push $1.3 Billion Bill To Refill The Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Zero Hedge -

Republicans Push $1.3 Billion Bill To Refill The Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

  • The proposed bill allocates $1.321 billion to refill the SPR and $218 million for maintenance and repairs.

  • It aims to repeal the SPR drawdown mandate and redirect funds away from climate initiatives.

  • The legislation responds to Trump’s promise to refill the reserve and criticizes Biden’s SPR releases.

U.S. House Republicans have introduced the Budget Reconciliation Bill, which will include funding to begin refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)—a key promise of President Donald Trump.

The bill proposes $1.321 billion to acquire, by purchase, petroleum products for storage in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and another $218 million for maintenance of, including repairs to, storage facilities and related facilities.

The bill also repeals the SPR drawdown and sale mandate.

“The bill would also begin refilling the dangerously low Strategic Petroleum Reserve,” Congressman Brett Guthrie (KY-02), Chairman of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, wrote in an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal on Sunday.

Republican Congressman Guthrie also noted that “This bill would claw back money headed for green boondoggles through “environmental and climate justice block grants” and other spending mechanisms through the Environmental Protection Agency and Energy Department.”

The legislation would “reverse the most reckless parts of the engorged climate spending in the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act, returning $6.5 billion in unspent funds,” Guthrie added.

Earlier this year, President Donald Trump said the U.S. Administration would quickly fill up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

“They put it all out because they thought they could keep gasoline prices down a little bit, just go past the election, and after that, they didn’t care,” the President added, criticizing Joe Biden’s administration for failing to curb the hikes in gasoline prices.

The SPR needs to be refilled as the strategic reserve plays a critical role in stabilizing the U.S. market during global supply disruptions.

The Biden administration released more than 180 million barrels of oil from the SPR starting in 2021, amid high gasoline prices.

The Department of the Treasury claims that these releases, along with coordinated international efforts, helped reduce gasoline prices by up to 40 cents per gallon in 2022.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 13:05

Iran Rejects 'Unacceptable' US Demand To Dismantle Nuclear Sites

Zero Hedge -

Iran Rejects 'Unacceptable' US Demand To Dismantle Nuclear Sites

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has thrown cold water on the possibility of dismantling its nuclear facilities, which Tehran maintains are only for peaceful domestic energy purposes.

But top US officials have called for just that. Starting earlier this month Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Iran has to 'walk away' from uranium enrichment and long-range missile development, while Trump's special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff just days ago went further, asserting that Iran's uranium enrichment facilities "have to be dismantled" for Washington to trust that it does not want nuclear arms.

Pezeshkian in the fresh comments blasted the demand as "unacceptable" and framed it as a matter of national sovereignty and independent development.

The Arak heavy water reactor's secondary circuit. Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP

"The discussion that has been raised about dismantling Iran's entire nuclear facilities is unacceptable to us," the Iranian president said, adding that "Iran will not give up its peaceful nuclear rights."

Still, the country's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi acknowledged Sunday that negotiations with the United States in Oman had become "much more serious and frank" - which suggests positive momentum toward restoring a deal or at least an understanding on which to build a working relationship with Washington.

Araqchi in the comments given to Iran's state-run IRIB TV characterized "forward-moving" talks with the US over an array of complex nuclear-related issues.

This is despite last Thursday's provocative comments given to Breitbart wherein bluntly stated, "They cannot have centrifuges. They have to downblend all of their fuel that they have there and send it to a far-away place.

"An enrichment program can never exist in the state of Iran ever again. That’s our red line," the US envoy asserted further.

“I just believe they have no choice” but to accept the White House position against enrichment, continued Witkoff. "Obviously, they can say no, and they can test President Trump, but I think that would be an unwise thing to do."

Iranian leadership has tended to brush off such maximalist demands, hoping instead that they can appeal to President Trump's pragmatic deal-making side and willingness to avoid war at all costs. Israel has long threatened preemptive attack on Iran if it believes Tehran is on the cusp of achieving a nuke. Trump has clearly distanced himself from these Israeli efforts to box him into a corner towards starting a new Middle East conflict.

President Pezeshkian meanwhile has continued stressing the "peaceful" purposes of the country's nuclear sites, which include the areas of radiopharmaceuticals, healthcare, agriculture, and industry.

"We are serious in the negotiations and seek an agreement. We hold talks because we want peace," he said. Iranian officials have of late complained that it's very hard to deal with the United States, given rotating administrations which have the capability to reverse key decisions of prior presidents.

Such was the case with the Obama-brokered JCPOA nuclear deal, which Trump unilaterally pulled out of in April 2018. It's as yet unclear the degree to which that original deal's terms will be restored or held to as part of the new ongoing talks.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 12:45

Still Living In Interesting Times

Zero Hedge -

Still Living In Interesting Times

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

"May you live in interesting times” is a phrase sometimes erroneously attributed as an ancient Chinese curse. The general idea being that “interesting” times are more likely to be tumultuous and hard, rather than easy and comfortable. Given that we now live in a time where established orthodoxies like “free trade is always and everywhere a good thing”, ‘the international rules-based order’ and “there will never be an American Pope” are being overturned, its fair to say that the current climate meets the standard for “interesting”.

The big market-related news this morning is the trade talks between China and the United States in Geneva over the weekend. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the talks resulted in “substantial progress”, while Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng also extolled “important progress” without offering specifics. President Trump went so far as to call the talks a “total reset” on the US-China relationship, but if that’s the case the risk-on tone in markets this morning seems underdone. Perhaps this is one of those occasions where traders’ reticence to price in “he means what he says” actually works because deep divergence of interests means that there is unlikely to be any substantive meat on these bones? Risk assets are minorly bid this morning and Bessent says an announcement of particulars will be made later today.

Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping travelled to Moscow last week to attend Russia’s Victory Day parade, marking 80-years since the defeat of Nazi Germany in WWII. At the event Xi described the relationship between Russia and China as “unbreakable” and said that they were ”friends of steel”, which might be a little awkward for the European trade boffins who see closer ties with China as a card that they can play in negotiations with the United States. Is the friend of my enemy my enemy? Or can we still be friends while I pretend that he doesn’t pal around with unsavoury characters that are fighting wars of aggression against my other, smaller friends? It’s hard to see how Europe could lay claim to usurping the USA as the new torchbearer of freedom and democracy (as some have claimed it has done) while pursuing such naked self-interest on the trade front.

Of course, others are happy to drop the pretext that they are pursuing anything other than naked self-interest. President Zelenskyy, backed by European counterparts, had offered a 30-day ceasefire in the war against Russia, but was rebuffed by Moscow who countered by offering direct talks to be hosted in Istanbul later this week. Zelenskyy, increasingly pressured by the US to cut a deal to end hostilities, says that he is ready to talk but it is unclear whether he will be meeting with Vladimir Putin in person. What IS clear is the likely terms offered by Russia for peace: no NATO membership for Ukraine, recognition of Russian dominion over Crimea, no international peacekeepers on Ukrainian territory, recognition of Russian control over territory in Eastern Ukraine and strict caps on Western military aid to Ukraine. All of that sounds a bit ‘Treaty of Versailles’, but the realpolitik here is clear: Russia is nakedly pursuing its vital strategic interests and the ‘international rules-based order’ really doesn’t feature.

Elsewhere in geopolitics, India tweaked the US’ nose for suggesting that it had brokered the tenuous ceasefire that is currently holding vis-à-vis Pakistan, and PM Modi reportedly told J.D. Vance that any further attacks from Pakistan will be met with “devastating and strong” retaliation from New Delhi. A number of news outlets have noted in recent days that the tit-for-tat exchanges between the two South Asian neighbours has provided an interesting sandbox for testing Chinese military hardware (as deployed by Pakistan) against Western weaponry increasingly adopted by India. No doubt there will be many interested onlookers should hostilities flare up again, as seems likely.

President Trump will travel to Riyadh today to meet with Saudi Arabian officials. Saudi reportedly wants to do a deal to access civilian nuclear technology, and has told the US that if they are unwilling to supply it they may look elsewhere (read, China). Meanwhile, the relationship between the United States and Israel seems to be deteriorating as the USA tries to do a deal with Iran over its own nuclear ambitions (a red line for Israel), calls time-out on strikes against the Houthis, and flirts with the prospect of recognizing a Palestinian state. Israeli PM Netanyahu is digging his heels in over extending the war in Gaza (much to the frustration of the USA) and comments attributed to Netanyahu suggesting that Israel may need to “detox” itself from US security assistance are currently spreading across social media. The trend in developments here seems to suggested that odds of diplomatic normalization between Saudi Arabia an Israel are lengthening, which is a win for Iran and another L for Western-liberal multilateralism.

So, the world remains in a geopolitical flux as the architecture hammered out at Bretton Woods appears to be breathing its last and Great States vie to shape the emerging global order. Markets are still ticking along though, with gold down, oil up, the DXY index back above 100, yields on US 10’s rising again and stocks opening up bid.

We may live in interesting times, but in the markets it’s all very ho-hum.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 12:25

Judge Allows CIA To Fire Doctor Who Helped Enforce Military COVID Mandate

Zero Hedge -

Judge Allows CIA To Fire Doctor Who Helped Enforce Military COVID Mandate

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge has denied an emergency bid by Dr. Terry Adirim to halt her dismissal from the CIA, rejecting her claims that political activists orchestrated her firing in retaliation for her role in enforcing the military’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate.

Dr. Terry Adirim, acting assistant defense secretary for Health Affairs, gives an update on COVID-19 at the Pentagon on June 30, 2021. Screenshot via The Epoch Times/DOD

In a ruling issued on May 9, U.S. District Judge Michael Nachmanoff found that Adirim had failed to demonstrate a likelihood of success on the merits of her claim that the CIA violated her constitutional rights. The decision clears the way for the agency to proceed with terminating Adirim’s employment under a contract provision allowing dismissal with 30 days’ notice.

Adirim, a former senior Defense Department official who served as the CIA’s director of global health services, alleged in court filings that she became the target of a politically motivated campaign led by activist Ivan Raiklin. She claimed in her lawsuit that Raiklin defamed her as a traitor and “architect” of the Pentagon’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate and that he enlisted fellow activist Laura Loomer to persuade President Donald Trump to intervene with the CIA to have her fired.

Her lawsuit named the CIA, Raiklin, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and the conservative nonprofit America’s Future as defendants. It alleged due process violations, defamation, breach of contract, and a Privacy Act violation stemming from alleged leaks about her dismissal to Breitbart News.

In a 25-page opposition brief filed on May 6, Justice Department attorneys called Adirim’s theory “speculative and unsupported,” arguing that her theory relied on loosely drawn connections and unsubstantiated assumptions about political influence.

Plaintiff pinpoints the blame not on the CIA, but on a non-governmental actor, Ivan Raiklin, whom she accuses of orchestrating her termination through a scheme of defamation and political influence,” the attorneys wrote. “Besides being farfetched—and untrue—Plaintiff’s allegations do not actually amount to any viable claim against the Federal Defendants, let alone any claim that merits an injunction.”

The Department of Justice acknowledged Adirim’s name appeared on Raiklin’s so-called Deep State Target List but said this had no bearing on the CIA’s decision.

There is no reason other than the close timing of Ms. Loomer’s White House visit and the CIA’s communication of its termination decision to Plaintiff to suggest the two are linked,” the filing reads.

The CIA maintained that Adirim wasn’t terminated over politics but because of “multiple complaints” from CIA staff about her “inappropriate and harassing” conduct in the workplace.

According to a declaration from the agency’s deputy chief operating officer, senior leadership initiated a review of Adirim’s behavior weeks before Loomer’s reported White House visit and made the decision to terminate her independently.

The political and legal controversy surrounding the military’s COVID-19 vaccination mandate intensified just days before the court’s ruling. On May 7, the Pentagon issued sweeping new guidance acknowledging that the mandate had been “an unfair, overbroad, and completely unnecessary burden” on servicemembers. The memo directed military review boards to reinstate troops discharged over the mandate and remove related disciplinary records, declaring that the lack of due process in enforcing vaccine compliance was itself “an injustice.”

Adirim, who had signed key policy documents enabling the Pentagon’s mandate while serving as acting assistant secretary of defense for health affairs, became a focal point in that broader political reckoning—even as the CIA maintained her dismissal was unrelated.

A soldier watches another soldier receive his COVID-19 vaccination from Army Preventative Medical Services in Fort Knox, Ky., on Sept. 9, 2021. Jon Cherry/Getty Images

In her complaint, Adirim contended that being fired just weeks before qualifying for federal retirement amounted to irreparable harm, that she had been defamed after decades of public service, and that her family had been endangered.

The CIA said the decision was internal, lawful, and based on employee complaints rather than political pressure.

In response to the May 9 ruling, Adirim’s attorney Kevin Carroll told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement, “We respect the court’s decision and look forward to litigating the underlying issues.”

The case remains active in federal court but, without the injunction she had sought, Adirim’s termination is now set to proceed as planned.

Raiklin, in a post on social media platform X, hailed the decision: “Terry Adirim, you’re fired!!! Your lawyer is next.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 11:45

Pope Leo Calls For Peace In Ukraine, Gaza While Warning Of WW3 That Is 'Fought Piecemeal'

Zero Hedge -

Pope Leo Calls For Peace In Ukraine, Gaza While Warning Of WW3 That Is 'Fought Piecemeal'

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Pope Leo XIV called for a ceasefire in Gaza and an end to the Israeli blockade of aid on Sunday in his first Sunday blessing since being elected pontiff last week.

"I am deeply pained by what is happening [in Gaza]," Leo said from the loggia of St. Peter’s Basilica. "Let the fighting cease immediately, let humanitarian aid be provided to the exhausted civilian population, and may all hostages be released."

The pope also called for a ceasefire in Ukraine, saying, "I carry in my heart the sufferings of the beloved Ukrainian people. Let everything possible be done to achieve genuine, just and lasting peace as soon as possible."

Vatican media via Associated Press

Leo, the first US-born pontiff, welcomed the ceasefire between India and Pakistan and made an appeal to world leaders for peace and an end to war. "In today’s dramatic context of a third world war fought piecemeal … I too appeal to the powerful of the world by repeating these ever-relevant words: 'never again war!'" he said.

The pope made the remarks after singing the Regina Caeli (Queen of Heaven) prayer, which is traditionally recited throughout the Easter season. He closed his address with a "heartfelt appeal" to Mary Queen of Peace, "so that she may present it to the Lord Jesus and obtain for us the miracle of peace."

Leo's comments signal he will continue the late Pope Francis’s emphasis on the issues of war and peace. Francis frequently called for peace in Gaza and was highly critical of Israel’s conduct, suggesting in his last book that there should be an investigation into whether it constitutes genocide.

Francis also kept in close contact with the Holy Family Catholic Church in Gaza City, often holding nightly calls with the priest and parishioners. His final call with the church occurred on April 19, just two days before his death.

Francis called for a ceasefire in Gaza in his last public address, which was delivered by an aide the day before his death. "I think of the people of Gaza, and its Christian community in particular, where the terrible conflict continues to cause death and destruction and to create a dramatic and deplorable humanitarian situation," he said.

The newly elected Pope is already getting busy with matters of world diplomacy and peace...

"I appeal to the warring parties: call a ceasefire, release the hostages, and come to the aid of a starving people that aspires to a future of peace!" he had added.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 11:05

Trump Targets Big Pharma: Slashes Drug Prices With 'Most Favored Nation' Rule, Aims To Cut Out Middlemen

Zero Hedge -

Trump Targets Big Pharma: Slashes Drug Prices With 'Most Favored Nation' Rule, Aims To Cut Out Middlemen

Update (1122ET):

Executive order signed. 

 

*   *   * 

Update (1047ET):

President Trump will sign an executive order to reduce prescription drug prices. He said the "most favored nation" policy would tie the prices the U.S. government pays for certain medications to lower rates charged in other developed countries.

The president pledged to eliminate middlemen from the drug supply chain to make pricing more transparent and direct for consumers. Additionally, the president said select medications would be imported to help drive prices down further.

Trump warned that, if necessary, his administration would launch investigations into pharmaceutical companies, vowing to confront the pharmaceutical industrial complex and powerful pharma lobby groups.

The order is set to be a major hit to the pharmaceutical industry and ... 

Global pharmaceutical stocks came under pressure in Asia and Europe ahead of President Trump's press conference. However, about an hour into his remarks, the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) was up 2.5%. Despite the rebound, the XBI remains down 15% year-to-date.

 

*   *   * 

Update (0935ET):

President Trump and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are expected to give a press conference about lowering drug prices via an executive order. 

Ahead of the conference, Trump wrote on Truth Social:

DRUG PRICES TO BE CUT BY 59%, PLUS! Gasoline, Energy, Groceries, and all other costs, DOWN. NO INFLATION!!! LOVE, DJT

Live coverage provided courtesy of Right Side Broadcasting Network.

 

*   *   * 

Update (0755ET):

Pharmaceutical stocks slid globally Monday after President Trump said he would sign an executive order to slash U.S. prescription drug prices by 30% to 80%, aligning them more closely with international prices. The move, unveiled on Sunday on Truth Social, is seen by investors as a direct threat to profitability, raising concerns over pricing power and future earnings growth.

European drugmakers, including AstraZeneca, Roche Holding, and Novo Nordisk, missed out on the global equity rally sparked by trade optimism this morning. All three European pharma stocks were down between 3% and 4%. In Asia, the pharmaceuticals subgroup in Japan's Topix Index recorded its largest daily decline since August. In premarket trading in New York, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, and Merck were down between 2% and 3%. 

Bank Vontobel analyst Stefan Schneider wrote in a note, "This has the potential to be very negative for the industry." He said the order will probably target Medicare, Medicaid, and hospitals. 

Goldman analyst James Quigley and others provided clients with more color on Trump's incoming order this morning and what it means for European pharma stocks:

Last night on the social media platform Truth Social, President Trump confirmed that the administration intends to pursue the Most Favored Nation (MFN) Model for drug pricing, which calls for reducing U.S. drug prices to be more in line with international prices. Details of how this will be administered and specifically to which channels (i.e. Medicare Part B & D, Medicaid) will be disclosed in an Executive Order at 9am ET/2pm UK.

As a broad sensitivity analysis, for illustrative purposes if we assume a 10% reduction in U.S. Medicare Part B and Part D and Medicaid prices, this implies an average -2% impact on revenues across our EU Large cap coverage (assuming a 4-year phase in) and a -6% impact on our DCF valuations, all else equal. Exposure across Medicare Part B & Part D and Medicaid is fairly balanced across the industry, with Argenx, Astra, Novo and Novartis having the highest exposure (50% for ARGX and 45% of U.S. sales for the others) and Sanofi the lowest exposure (20% of U.S. sales) across these channels. On a channel specific basis, we estimate Argenx and Roche have the largest Medicare Part B exposure vs. Novo, Astra and Novartis with the highest Medicare Part D exposure. At the company level, our broad sensitivity analysis, all else equal and without assuming any costs savings offset, suggests GSK could be most exposed from a DCF standpoint followed by Roche/Argenx.

We note that EU Large Pharma has underperformed the wider market in Europe by -6%/-17% YTD and since the U.S. election on November 5, 2024, and now trades around 11.4x (11.4x ex-Novo) one year forward P/E, which is an 20% discount vs. the 10-year average multiple of 14.2x (13.5x ex-Novo, c.16% discount ex-Novo). Given this (and acknowledging other sector level concerns and FX), we believe the market is already pricing in some risk of U.S. price reform, but we would expect this to weigh on the multiple until the impact is fully digested in earnings estimates.

Quigley pointed out the EU pharma stocks with the highest exposure in the U.S. market. 

Evan Seigerman, head of health-care research at BMO Capital Markets, told clients that Trump's plan likely only affects the drugs up for price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act.

"Importantly, the government has no power to set prices in the commercial market," Seigerman noted, adding that any effort beyond the executive order could face pushback from House Republicans, limiting the scope of potential legislation.

Trump wrote on Truth Social that he will be signing the order at 0900 ET. 

*   *   * 

President Donald Trump announced late on May 11 that he would sign an executive order which would reduce prescription drug prices in the US by 30% to 80% “almost immediately” while also raising drug prices “rise throughout the World in order to equalize and, for the first time in many years, bring FAIRNESS TO AMERICA!”

To achieve that, Trump would institute what he called a most-favored nation policy “whereby the United States will pay the same price as the Nation that pays the lowest price anywhere in the World." Healthcare costs in the US “will be reduced by numbers never even thought of before,” he said.

Trump’s Truth Social post, which was preceded by an earlier one that promised as one of "most important and impactful" statements he has ever issued, didn’t detail how the order would work. 

He also didn’t specify potential limits on the policy, such as whether it would apply only to government programs such as Medicare or Medicaid, if it would be limited to certain drugs or categories of drugs or if the White House sees a way to apply this more broadly.

Asian pharmaceutical companies fell in early Monday trading. Japanese drugmaker Chugai Pharmaceutical Co. dropped as much as 7.2%, the most in a month, with peers Daiichi Sankyo and Takeda Pharmaceuticals losing around 5%. In South Korea, SK Biopharmaceuticals Co., Celltrion Inc. and Samsung Biologics Co. all fell over 3%.

Americans pay the most in the world for medicines, fueling innovation and driving the growth of the pharmaceutical industry. Drugmakers have said revamping the system will slash revenue and stifle the development of breakthrough therapies that have the potential to lengthen and improve lives.

Trump cited the industry’s argument, but said it meant that “the ‘suckers’ of America” ended up bearing those costs “for no reason whatsoever.”

As Bloomberg notes, the US government already negotiates prices for some of the highest-cost medicines used in Medicare health insurance under the Inflation Reduction Act, which passed in 2022 under former President Joe Biden, with more slated to be added every year. The first two rounds of drug price negotiations haven’t included physician-administered drugs, but the next round might.

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman suggested Trump might have been inspired by an idea he floated on X in March, when he said the best way to reduce US drug prices “is to make it illegal for drug companies to sell the same drugs abroad for lower prices than they sell them for here.”

In his first term, Trump proposed a Medicare pilot program for drugs with no low-cost generic competition that are given in doctor’s offices, saying he wanted to bring prices in line with countries like France and Japan where they cost dramatically less. 


That plan, which would have phased in over three years, aimed to ensure Medicare paid the lowest price offered to a group of 22 nations.

The effort was struck down in federal court after drug companies challenged it, claiming the administration hadn’t properly carried out the rulemaking process. The Biden administration didn’t appeal that finding, and instead pursued legislation that led to the Inflation Reduction Act.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 10:47

Apple May Hike iPhone Prices For First Time Since 2017

Zero Hedge -

Apple May Hike iPhone Prices For First Time Since 2017

Apple is expected to unveil the iPhone 17 lineup on September 9, with pre-orders likely to open later that week—consistent with the company's usual early-September launch cycle. However, this year's release may come with a notable deviation from the norm: according to The Wall Street Journal, Apple is considering its first iPhone price increase since the debut of the iPhone X in 2017.

Sources familiar with the upcoming iPhone lineup told WSJ that CEO Tim Cook is expected to steer clear of linking any potential price increases to the ongoing U.S.-China tariff dispute. While most of Apple's devices are still manufactured in China, the company has steadily shifted iPhone production to India to mitigate tariffs and potential supply chain snarls. 

Positive news emerged earlier, with the US and China agreeing to limit tariffs, including reducing levies on Chinese goods entering the US from 145% to 30%. This 90-day cool-off period will allow both economic superpowers to move forward and attempt to strike a resolution to end or at least continue de-escalating the trade war. 

The people said Apple's most profitable, high-end phones, such as the Pro and Pro Max models, will still be produced in China. They pointed out that Indian production lines are still incapable of mass-producing Pro models. 

Jefferies estimates that approximately 65 million iPhones were sold in the US market last year, 36 to 39 million of which were Pro or Pro Max models. 

Apple hasn't raised iPhone pricing since the X debuted in 2017, keeping prices at a $999 ceiling. The sources did not indicate future pricing for the models.

Via Apple Club...

Here's more from WSJ:

These circumstances have led Apple to look at what supply-chain insiders described as the least-bad choice: raising prices on the new iPhones to preserve profit and finding reasons other than tariffs to explain the move. It couldn't be determined what new features Apple may offer to help justify price increases.

Apple traditionally rolls out new models of its iPhones in the fall. If it follows convention, this fall's models will be known as the iPhone 17 lineup. Current iPhone models range from the base model iPhone 16, which starts at $799, to the iPhone 16 Pro Max, which costs $1,199 and up.

It's clear that Apple can't put a premium on Apple Intelligence because it has so far been a bust...

In Trump's first term, Tim Cook lobbied the administration to exempt some of its devices from tariffs. Before the trade war broke out earlier this year, Cook visited the White House.

"By the end of 2026 or the beginning of 2027, we are optimistic that India will be capable of meeting both the U.S. and India's demand, but China will still be important" for sourcing components, Abhilash Kumar, an analyst with tech research firm TechInsights, said, quoted by WSJ. 

Jefferies analysts cautioned that increasing production of high-end iPhone models in India to around 40 million within two years was a "tall order."

A previous WSJ report cited sources who said Apple has been studying various ways to shift overseas iPhone production to the US—a move that could take years. 

Wedbush Securities suggested that an American iPhone could cost $3,500.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 10:45

Affirm Your Kid's Chosen Gender Or Lose Custody? Colorado's Chilling New Bill

Zero Hedge -

Affirm Your Kid's Chosen Gender Or Lose Custody? Colorado's Chilling New Bill

Authored by Julian Adorney via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Colorado state legislature is considering a bill that would radically chill parents’ speech. Dubbed the “Kelly Loving Act,” the bill, if signed into law, would empower judges to consider “deadnaming” and “misgendering” your child to be types of “coercive control” when they’re making custody decisions. In simple terms: if your child gender transitions and you don’t affirm their new gender identity, then a judge could consider your non-affirmation to be a form of abuse and use it as justification to deny you custody of your child.

AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley, File

This is a deeply chilling bill. The bill’s sponsors frame it as a way to show support for transgender people, but this bill goes way too far in stripping away parents’ rights.

Being a good and loving parent means telling your child “no.” Every parent has had these conversations.

“No, you can’t have M&Ms for dinner; eat your broccoli.”

“No, you can’t stay up until midnight. Your bedtime is ten.”

“No, you can’t hang out with Chad who’s always high; find some friends who will have a better influence on you.”

But when it comes to gender transitioning, saying “no” could be dangerous. If your son decides to socially transition and begins calling himself a girl, and you don’t unconditionally affirm that decision, then you could risk losing him if you’re ever in a child custody battle.

Some advocates of gender transitioning say that socially transitioning is harmless. After all, what does it matter if your son starts to use female pronouns and wear dresses? The problem is that socially transitioning puts many children on a conveyor belt to medically transitioning. According to a 2022 study on the topic, a stunning 97.5 percent of young people who socially transitioned continued to identify as either trans or nonbinary several years later. Nearly 60 percent went on to medically transition via either puberty blockers or cross-sex hormones.

Proponents of gender-affirming care for young people suggest that these numbers are proof that young people know their gender identity and simply need it to be affirmed; when it is affirmed, they do not waver. But this idea falls apart when we consider that the mean child in the study socially transitioned when they were just six years old. It is possible that some of these children truly are transgender. Much more likely is that, when a slew of authority figures validate a young child’s sense of identity, these authority figures reify that sense of identity. This is true even if the identity in question is not something that the child would ever have chosen had they not been prodded into it by well-meaning authority figures.

The fragile and unsteady formation of a child’s sense of identity has long been studied by psychologists. If authority figures tell a child that he or she is worthless or defective, then many children will believe that even if it is not true. If authority figures tell a child that they are stupid, or bad at sports, or shouldn’t play piano, and if the authority figures hammer this message home for years from a young age, many children will grow to believe this about themselves.

Indeed, this helps explain the rapid rise of transgender-identifying youth. As professor of psychology Jean Twenge notes, the number of young people who identify as transgender has exploded in recent years.

Some of this explosion might have to do with the fact that people who identify as transgender feel safer coming out of the closet than they might have in previous decades. But the size of the surge suggests that a lot of this is socially mediated; that is, young people are being pressured by peers or by authority figures (including by the promise of unconditional acceptance) into adopting an identity that isn’t really theirs.

As social psychologist Jonathan Haidt puts it in “The Anxious Generation”:

“the fact that gender dysphoria now often appears in social clusters (such as a group of close friends), the fact that parents and those who transition back to their natal sex identify social media as a major source of information and encouragement, and the fact that gender dysphoria is now being diagnosed among many adolescents who showed no signs of it as children all indicate that social influence and sociogenic transmission may be at work as well.”

For many young children who are being encouraged to socially transition, the best and most loving act that a parent can take may indeed be to push back on this false sense of identity rather than reify it. There are times when parents really do know best.

When it comes to free speech, a good rule of thumb is this: the more weighty a matter is, the more essential that we be allowed to discuss it freely. The higher the stakes to vulnerable lives if we make the wrong decision, the more essential it is that everyone should have the freedom to share their perspective.

The reason is simple: free speech is a powerful vehicle for discovering the truth of a matter, because it allows everyone involved to bring their perspective and their knowledge to bear on the question. When we don’t allow all parties to speak freely, we increase the risk of making bad decisions because the blind spots and cognitive biases of the people who are allowed to speak do not get confronted. As John Milton wrote in “Areopagitica,” “Let her [Truth] and Falsehood grapple; who ever knew Truth put to the worse in a free and open encounter?”

This bill threatens to chill speech on one of the most important questions that a parent will ever have to wrestle with. If a six-year-old boy wants to socially transition, then it is essential that his parents be free to discuss the matter frankly and honestly. They should bring up their concerns. Only when both parents are free to discuss these matters openly and honestly can they help the child to navigate this decision in a way that is most likely to be in the child’s long-term best interest.

If the Colorado bill were to become law, it would put a stop to those conversations. If a mother believes that affirming her six-year-old son’s decision to socially transition isn’t in his best interest, is she going to speak up about her concerns knowing that it could potentially cost her custody of her child? More likely, she’ll be tempted to keep her concerns and opinions to herself, in order to not take the risk. But that state-enforced silence won’t help her son.

It’s easy to see the noble intentions motivating the authors of the “Kelly Loving Act.” As one of the bill’s sponsors said, “This is a bill that will ... send a message to trans people in Colorado that we believe in them, care for them, and love them, and we want them to live healthy, safe lives.” We should certainly all be respectful of adults who choose to transition their sex or gender, and to love and care for them as God’s cherished children.

It’s also essential that we care for young people struggling to find their identity in a tumultuous world. But we should remember that most parents know their children and love their children far better than a judge ever could. Perhaps the most caring thing we can do for young children right now is to empower parents to raise them as the parents see fit, without unnecessary and intrusive political oversight from state agents.

From the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER)

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/12/2025 - 10:25

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