As ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Veterans’ Affairs on July 30, 2025

Two Ukrainians Working For Russian Intelligence Behind Unprecedented Rail Sabotage: Poland Claims

Warsaw authorities have now laid official blame on the sabotage attack on Poland's rail network which was uncovered Sunday, and could have led to the derailing of a train. As everyone expected, they are looking squarely at Moscow.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced Tuesday that an investigation at the scene points to two Ukrainian citizens who have "long worked for Russian intelligence" as the prime suspects in the case.

Via ABC

A train track linking the Polish cities of Warsaw and Lublin had been destroyed in an "unprecedented act of sabotage". Tusk described the damaged railway is as crucially important for delivering aid to Ukraine.

"The goal was to cause a rail catastrophe," Tusk told members of Polish parliament in a briefing on Tuesday. He identified that at one of the two specific sabotage sites a military-grade C4 explosive charge was used.

BBC reports that "Another incident further down the line near Pulawy forced a crowded train to stop suddenly and damage was found to overhead cables."

An "explosive device" blew up the rail track, with the the act "directly (targeted) the security of the Polish state and its civilians" - Tusk has also said.

Follow-up statements by Polish investigators said that "everything points to them being Russian special services" - in reference to the pair of Ukrainian nationals believed behind the plot. Tusk says that one of the men lives in eastern Ukraine and another is living in Belarus.

Additionally, Poland’s security services minister, Tomasz Siemoniak, has described attack on a section of the track near Mika village as "a new stage of threatening the railway infrastructure." The severe damage was found some 80 miles from the Ukrainian border.

While Polish investigators say they've identified the perpetrators, it doesn't look like they are in custody, and are likely still on the run. Some regional observers have raised the possibility of a 'false flag' - as it remains hard to independently verify any information coming out of NATO countries' authorities.

via Sky News

Estonia's Prime Minister Kristen Michal had condemned the apparent sabotage op, writing on X that he and his country stand with Poland. "Those behind hostile acts against (European Union) and NATO members must be exposed. Our response must be united."

European countries have long complained of Russian-sponsored 'hybrid warfare' against EU critical infrastructure. They also say that Russia is behind mystery drone incursions which have at times disrupted busy commercial airports as as well as military flights.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 14:45

Emails Reveal Under Armor Urged Maryland To Buy Horse Farm After No Buyers - Will Gov. Moore Return Favor?

The pattern emerging from Under Armour CEO Kevin Plank and his Maryland-based real estate ventures suggests mounting financial strain beneath the surface. This comes as UA shares have collapsed 48% year to date, trading near record lows, raising questions about Plank's sudden need for liquidity. 

In February, we noted that Plank relisted his $18.5 million, 500-acre racehorse farm, Sagamore Farm, located in upper Baltimore County, just 15 minutes north of Towson, signaled a clear need for liquidity.

Plank purchased the farm in mid-2007 for $6.5 million, invested $22 million in upgrades, and still hasn't found a buyer.

In fact, the property, located just down the street from the Hunt Cup steeplechase race, has drawn so little interest that Plank's representatives have asked Maryland Gov. Wes Moore's office to consider purchasing the horse farm.

Local outlet The Baltimore Banner reports that emails between Plank's Sagamore Ventures and Gov. Wes Moore's office show Plank's team pitched the farm as a state-owned horse training facility, which could be part of Moore's broader effort to revitalize Pimlico Race Course and the Preakness Stakes.

In one email, Brendan Tizard, Sagamore Ventures' vice president, listed off several reasons why Sagamore Farm would be a better fit for the state. 

Tizard's top reasons: 

• Sagamore Farm is closer to Pimlico; the land is better suited for horse training;

• and Sagamore's facilities are largely turnkey.

"Although Sagamore's acquisition cost is higher than Shamrock's, the reduction in development time, permitting, and capital make the project more cost-effective for the state," Tizard said in one of the email documents shared with Moore's office. 

Why does this matter? Because Sagamore Farm has been on and off the market for years without finding a buyer. At the same time, Under Armour's stock has crashed, and Plank has been unwinding pieces of his real estate empire, mansions, a hotel, and other assets. The pattern paints a broader picture of someone under growing financial pressure.

"Plank has sold two other high-profile homes in the past decade, a Georgetown mansion for $17.25 million in 2020 and his Park City, Utah condo for $18 million in 2023," WSJ noted earlier this year. 

In recent months, Plank and his brother Scott Plank sold their ownership interest in a luxury hotel tucked into Baltimore's historic Fells Point neighborhood.

The urgent need for cash?

• Inside World Of High-Net-Worth Lending: Kevin Plank Pledges Georgetown Home For $15M Commercial Loan

And Plank built a "billion-dollar ghost town" in crime-ridden and far-left-controlled Baltimore City...

Meanwhile, UA's turnaround plan sputters:

• Under Armour Shares Crash As Kevin Plank's Turnaround Plan Hits Wall 

Stock is spiraling lower. 

UA shares are 27.5% short, equivalent to 51.8 million shares sold short. A massive short position has been building over the past few years as the stock slides. One has to wonder what Plank's plan is to trigger a squeeze.

However, not everyone sees the UA spiraling to zero. UBS analyst Jay Sole recently noted... 

• "We Think Sentiment Will Turn Positive": UBS Sees Inflection Point In Under Armour Shares

And by the way, Plank recently hosted a closed-door fundraiser for the leftist Gov. Moore at Sagamore. 

A lingering question remains: Why the sudden need for liquidity? Could the answer be stock-backed loans that are now underwater?

And we'll end with the ultimate question: After Plank's private fundraiser for Moore at Sagamore, will the governor return the favor?

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 14:25

What GAO Found VA’s Veterans Benefits Administration (VBA) may require veterans filing disability claims to undergo medical exams to help determine eligibility. VBA relies on contractors to provide medical professionals, called examiners, to conduct most of these exams. Conducting quality exams is important because errors can result in costly rework and delays in processing claims. VBA’s Medical Disability Examination Office (MDEO), which oversees these contractors, has refined its oversight since its establishment in 2016. GAO’s 2024 and 2025 reports described MDEO’s oversight, including quality control techniques for preventing errors from occurring during exams, detecting any exam errors that did occur, and correcting errors and providing accountability. GAO’s prior work also identified opportunities to strengthen MDEO’s oversight of contracted exam quality. Specifically, GAO found (1) breakdowns in procedures for correcting the most frequent or complex problems with contracted exams, (2) incorrect financial incentive payments to contractors, and (3) a gap in feedback from examiners—a key stakeholder group. GAO made five recommendations across the following four areas. All five remain open as of November 2025. VA has partially addressed one and described plans to address the others. Contractor quality action plans analyze the cause of the most frequent exam errors and specify contractors’ corrective actions. GAO found that MDEO’s procedures for reviewing these action plans lacked certain steps, including verifying that contractors completed the corrective actions and assessing whether these actions improved exam quality. GAO recommended that MDEO improve its procedures by including these steps. MDEO has partially addressed this recommendation. Special Focused Reviews seek to identify and address exam quality issues in specific areas. GAO found that MDEO was behind schedule on reviews for the most complex issues, such as military sexual trauma. GAO recommended that MDEO adhere to the biennial schedule outlined in its procedures. Financial incentives are based on contractor performance, including exam quality. GAO found that MDEO had no written procedures for checking the accuracy of its calculations for these incentives, resulting in almost $2.3 million in overpayments to contractors in fiscal year 2024. GAO recommended that MDEO develop and use such procedures. GAO also recommended that MDEO recalculate all financial incentives and correct any errors. Examiner feedback provides a key perspective on issues affecting exam quality. GAO found that MDEO relied on contractors to relay examiner feedback. However, five of six examiners GAO interviewed said contractors did not always address their concerns, making it harder to provide high-quality exams. They said they would like to provide feedback directly to MDEO. GAO recommended that MDEO collect and address direct feedback from examiners. Fully implementing GAO’s five recommendations would help MDEO improve exam quality so veterans receive more accurate and timely benefits decisions. Why GAO Did This Study Contracted disability examinations provide critical information for determining veterans’ eligibility for benefits. In fiscal year 2024, contracted examiners conducted over 3 million disability exams, costing over $5 billion. This statement summarizes 1) MDEO’s processes for overseeing exam quality and 2) GAO recommendations for improving these processes. This statement is based on two GAO reports: GAO-24-107730 and GAO-25-107483. For those reports, GAO analyzed MDEO financial incentive data from April 2023 through September 2024. Also, GAO reviewed MDEO documents and interviewed MDEO officials, contractors, and six examiners selected from a randomized list of all examiners for variation in characteristics such as specialty and experience. Finally, GAO interviewed MDEO officials on steps taken to address GAO’s recommendations.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California October Home Sales "Highest Level Since February"; 4th Look at Local Markets

A brief excerpt:

From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales hit highest level since February, C.A.R. reports

California home sales rose in October from both the prior month and a year ago to reach the highest level since February, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 282,590 in October, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2025 if sales maintained the October pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

October home sales edged up 1.9 percent from 277,410 in September to 282,590 in October. Home sales improved 4.1 percent from a revised 271,370 recorded a year earlier.

There is much more in the article.

Navigating The Curve: The Allure And Risks Of Long-Dated US Treasuries

Authored by Mario Eisenegger via BondVigilantes.com,

Compared to a year ago, the US Treasury curve has steepened considerably.

While yields at the front end have dropped due to anticipated rate cuts, the long end of the curve has not budged.

In fact, long-end bonds have sold off, giving bond investors the opportunity to lock in elevated yields.

That’s quite a tempting thought, considering we’re talking about the US, which sets the global reference rate for many asset classes.

Source: Bloomberg, 31 October 2025

In economies where GDP growth is constrained by high levels of debt and unfavourable demographics, governments either need to hope for a productivity boom or be prudent with spending plans to keep debt-to-GDP metrics in check. Achieving the latter can be challenging given the pressures of rising geopolitical tensions and the structural incentives in democratic systems that often prioritise short-term spending commitments during election cycles. This, in turn, increases the odds of inflation playing a larger role in achieving fiscal sustainability in the future.

In a world of financial repression, an opportunity to lock in positive real yields at 2-2.5% is worth considering. But, it is not a slam dunk.

Below, we share are a few concerns that keep us on the sidelines for now.

Risk one: absence of productivity boom

Running fiscal deficits when yields are high and debt-to-GDP levels are elevated can be  risky business. The US is currently doing just that which explains why the bond market has revalued the compensation it demands for owning long-dated US Treasuries. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) sees federal debt rise from 100% to 118% of GDP by 2035, reporting the highest point in US history.

Source: Congressional Budget Office

Earlier this year, Deutsche Bank calculated the budget deficit the US must maintain to stabilise its debt metrics. According to their calculations, the US would need to run a primary budget deficit-to-GDP ratio that is no larger than 1.2% to keep debt-to-GDP stable over the long run. With the fiscal package estimated to keep budget deficits as a share of GDP between 5% and 7% over the next few years, deficits of that size look unsustainable in the absence of a productivity boom. Hopes for productivity gains through AI are high. If the story holds up and the much-hoped-for productivity gains materialise, then the US fiscal situation could suddenly look much brighter. Having said that, the CBO also notes that if productivity growth is 0.5% slower per year compared to their baseline assumption, debt could surge to over 200% of GDP by 2055. This highlights how sensitive debt assumptions are, increasing the risk of policy errors that could  lead to further repricing of long-dated US bonds.

Risk two: erosion of Fed independence

In August, President Trump attempted to remove Lisa Cook from the Fed’s board of governors, citing allegations that she falsified records to obtain favourable terms on a mortgage before joining the central bank in 2022. Although the Supreme Court ruled that Cook, who is perceived as a hawkish board member, could remain in her position temporarily, Trump’s move could indicate an attempt to increase his influence over the Fed. The Fed may face repeated pressure if its monetary policies do not align with the White House’s political priorities. Jerome Powell’s term as Federal Reserve chair ends in May 2026, and Trump has stated that he will not nominate “Too-Late” Powell for another term. A new Fed chair might take a more dovish stance, increasing the risk that the Fed opts for lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth. One can argue that the US economy has become more resilient, given that 81% of GDP is now service-oriented, which tends to solve for smoother economic cycles. Cutting rates in a weakening but still growing economy, where inflation hovers above the Fed’s target, is risky business and may lead investors to demand higher long-term interest rates.

Risk three: tariff income might be deemed illegal

The president used a 1977 emergency law to impose tariffs on goods from over 100 countries. On the back of that, tariff revenues have grown for months, and the latest data shows that the US has collected $223.9 billion from them as of 31st October which is $142.2 billion more than the same time last year. This month, the US Supreme Court began hearing cases that could rule certain tariffs and their corresponding revenue streams illegal. These developments could worsen the US fiscal situation and bring the fiscal challenge back into the limelight, likely leading to higher term premium. I consider this likely to be a short term impact, as the Trump administration will probably  find new ways to enact tariffs.

Risk four: shift away from T-Bill heavy funding profile

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signalled a preference to avoid locking the government into higher borrowing costs when bills are cheaper. Just a few days ago the US Treasury confirmed this by indicating in its quarterly refinancing statement that it does not plan to increase sales of notes and bonds until well into next year and will rely more heavily on bills, which mature in up to one year, to fund the budget deficit. T-bills currently comprise 20% of the US debt held by the public. The Treasury has acknowledged that this reliance reduces expected costs while also increasing volatility of its funding profile. This trade-off is highly sensitive to baseline economic forecasts. While the current funding mix is appropriate in a “productivity boom” scenario, other scenarios highlight additional risks. Interestingly, their model suggests that a reduction in bill issuance in favour of mid-duration issuance could lower volatility for a negligible increase in costs in adverse scenarios. Thus, the odds of a shift away from a T-bill-heavy funding profile might be higher than many believe.

While the positive real yields offered by long-dated US Treasuries are tempting, we await the resolution of some of the uncertainties discussed to strengthen our conviction. For now, we consider positive real yields more attractive in other market areas where we have greater confidence in the direction of long-dated yields.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 12:05

Sen. Graham Touts Movement On New Russian Sanctions Bill 'With Trump's Blessing'

Sen. Lindsey Graham announced Monday the Senate is taking up legislation that would sanction Russia's trading partners, in order to ramp up the pressure on Moscow to end the war with Ukraine.

The announcement came after President Donald Trump told reporters Sunday night the proposed legislation would be "OK with me" - which marked his strongest signal yet that he's planning on signing off on it.

Graham, a Russia hawk (and pretty much hawkish on all other conflicts and official US 'enemies' in the world) unveiled the move forward on the legislation "with President Trump’s blessing."

via AP

He described the necessity of yet more sanctions in order to "continue the momentum to end this war honorably, justly and once and for all."

"This legislation is designed to give President Trump more flexibility and power to push Putin to the peace table by going after both Putin and countries like Iran that support him," Graham wrote. "I appreciate the strong bipartisan support for this legislation in both the House of Representatives and the Senate."

"The Senate will move soon on a tough sanctions bill — not only against Russia — but also against countries like China and India that buy Russian energy products that finance Putin’s war machine," Graham additionally stated. "The Senate bill has a presidential waiver to give President Trump maximum leverage."

"When it comes to Putin and those who support his war machine, it is time to change the game," he continued. Further, Graham again verified that Trump "is looking at [the bill] very strongly." But Trump wants the ultimate final say-so:

Graham and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), a co-sponsor of the bill, worked to include the presidential waiver to satisfy a White House request to give Trump more options, according to Politico.

US media is framing this as part of Trump "losing patience" with Putin over ending the war; however, the reality remains that Kiev and its Western backers have been unwilling to offer territorial concessions. Finally ceding Crimea hasn't even been on the table.

"We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth," Trump recently told reporters. "He’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless." And Graham responded to Trump's words by saying the president "is spot on about the games Putin is playing."

Lately, amid a 'civil war' in MAGA-land in the wake of the Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes interview, many of Trump's supporters have vehemently complained that Trump is too much in neocon Lindsey Graham's corner on foreign policy. His administration certainly didn't start off like that.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 11:45

Transparency is an aspect of CBO's work that the agency continually strives to improve—and one about which it often receives questions. CBO's Director addresses some of the most common questions about the agency's approach to transparency.

AI "Circle Jerk" Rages On: Microsoft, Nvidia Invest $15 Billion In Anthropic

Two months ago, when nobody was talking about the coming AI debt tsunami needed to bankroll trillions in data-center capex, and nobody was paying attention to Oracle's CDS quietly blow out, and well ahead of the Bank of England's AI valuation warning, we published "The Stunning Math Behind The AI Vendor Financing "Circle Jerk," essentially laying out all the weakest links in the swelling global AI bubble.

In the report, we laid out the ridiculous circle-jerk vendor financing schemes concocted by the handful of top players to pretend their revenue is growing at a rapid pace. We also called it an "infinite money glitch"...

Most notably, the players.

Fast-forward to Tuesday: the AI bubble keeps deflating, hyperscalers are under pressure, Bitcoin trading in the $92k range, and Microsoft and Amazon were just downgraded to neutral by Rothschild & Co. and Redburn's Alexander Haissl. Now comes fresh news from Microsoft and Nvidia, attempting to revive the AI hype with yet another round of circle-jerking. 

Bloomberg reports Microsoft and Nvidia will invest up to $15 billion in Anthropic. As part of the agreement, Anthropic will purchase $30 billion of compute from Microsoft's Azure, which only confirms more circle-jerking. 

"We are increasingly going to be customers of each other — we will use Anthropic models, they will use our infrastructure, and we will go to market together," Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella stated in a video, adding, "Of course, this all builds on the partnership we have with OpenAI, which remains a critical partner for Microsoft."

Satya Nadella explains how the circle jerk works: "We are increasingly going to be customers of each other — we will use Anthropic models, they will use our infrastructure, and we will go to market together"

And the US taxpayer will bail out everyone.

The end. https://t.co/WIHEzmZOlz

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 18, 2025

To support the AI-infrastructure buildout, Anthropic plans to spend $50 billion building AI data centers across multiple states. The AI company is simultaneously partnered with Google, which agreed in October to supply up to 1 million AI chips. 

Earlier, analyst Haissl warned that the bullish case around generative AI is no longer clear and hyperscalers should be approached with caution. 

He noted the industry's "trust us - Gen-AI is just like early cloud 1.0" pitch is flawed and that the underlying economics are far weaker than assumed.

Building on Haissl's warning, we've been very early in covering Oracle's CDS blowout, even offering warnings about AI debt and valuations well before the Bank of England. 

Bad news for the AI stocks. 

With all free cash flow going into chatbot data center capex, there is nothing left for buybacks and dividends. pic.twitter.com/RcqzDhHLv6

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 3, 2025

As we've previously joked. 

at this rate tomorrow morning we will get this headline

*OPENAI SIGNS DEAL WITH OPENAI TO BUY AND SELL $100 TRILLION WORTH OF STUFF TO AND FROM ITSELF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 4, 2025

Morgan Stanley analysts need to add Anthropic to the circle jerking.

Harris Kupperman, CIO of Praetorian Capital, posted the following on X,

Love how shareholders look at this deal, realize that this guarantees big losses for years into the future, and sell them like they're shale shit-cos promising to raise production in a $50 oil environment. Welcome to 2016 tech bros. The multiple compression is only just starting...

Rihard Jarc, co-founder and CIO of New Era Funds, pointed out that multiple narratives are converging in the Microsoft-Nvidia-Anthropic partnership:

So many narratives are at play here in the Microsoft-Nvidia-Anthropic partnership:

1. Nvidia saw Anthropic do a deal with Google's TPUs and Amazon's Trainium, so it had to ensure Anthropic stays committed to Nvidia hardware.

2. Microsoft is signaling that its future isn't dependent on OpenAI alone.

3. Anthropic is showing investors it can line up splashy partnerships and meaningful letter-of-intent orders.

4. And all of them timed this announcement to land on the same day as Google's Gemini 3.0 release - because if Google wins the frontier-model race decisively, all three would feel the pressure.

So many narratives are at play here at the $MSFT & $NVDA & Anthropic partnership IMO:

1. $NVDA saw Anthropic do a deal with $GOOGL TPUs, & $AMZN Trainium so it had to make sure Anthropic will use $NVDA

2. $MSFT showing that its fate is not dependent on OpenAI.

3. Anthropic is… https://t.co/QhoYPqyK4F

— Rihard Jarc (@RihardJarc) November 18, 2025

How does all this end? Trump's AI advisor, David Sacks may have offered a clue: "There will be no federal bailout for AI. The U.S. has at least five major frontier-model companies. If one fails, others will take its place."

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 11:30

China's Oil Stockpiling Accelerated In October

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

China stockpiled crude oil at elevated rates in October, at a daily rate of some 690,000 barrels, up from 570,000 barrels daily in September, Reuters’ Clyde Russell reported today, citing calculations derived from official Beijing data.

Refinery throughput in October averaged 14.94 million barrels daily, the official data showed, while imports ran at a rate of 11.39 million barrels daily, Russell reported.

The refinery throughput figure was a 6.4% increase on the year, suggesting healthy demand for oil, but it was also a decline on September’s 15.26 million bpd average.

The September figure was a two-year high.

Imports, meanwhile, averaged 11.39 million barrels daily in October, adding to local production of 4.24 million barrels daily for a total daily supply rate of 15.63 million barrels.

The difference between supply and demand, as based on refinery runs, is assumed to be going into storage, although some of it might be processed by small refineries that are not included in the official data, Russell notes in his regular reports on the state of China’s oil market.

This stockpiling on the part of China has become a major reason for the relative stability of oil prices.

It is based on the rather reasonable assumption that if China, the world’s largest oil importer, has built a supply cushion in case of disruption, then a surge in demand following such a disruption is unlikely. This assumption has acted as one more lid on prices, along with regular reports about electric vehicles replacing internal combustion engines in the world’s biggest car market.

Over the first ten months of the year, China was stockpiling crude at a daily rate of 900,000 barrels, the Reuters report also said, giving a rather comfortable size to that supply cushion in case of disruption, such as the latest U.S. sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 11:00

Callaway Sells Struggling Topgolf To Los Angeles Private Equity

We raised the question back in 2023: was the Topgolf mania just another consumer hype bubble?

Turns out that may have been the case. Topgolf Callaway Brands had been trying to unload or spin off the Topgolf unit for some time, and now they have.

Bloomberg reports that Callaway has sold a 60% stake in its Topgolf and Toptracer division to Leonard Green & Partners in a deal valuing the business at about $1.1 billion. This means the 60% stake will generate about $770 million for Callaway. 

Callaway originally acquired Topgolf in 2020 for about $2 billion. After the sale closes in 1Q26, the company will rebrand itself as Callaway Golf Company under the ticker "CALY" and refocus on its core golf equipment brands, stepping away from the struggling golf-experience chain.

In September, Golf Digest published a report based on conversations with former Topgolf executives Devin Charhon and Michael Canfield, revealing that Topgolf never achieved a stable flow of returning customers (cost was a major factor).

The former execs left the company to start Blue Jeans, which created the "Golf Ranch" brand, modernizing aging driving ranges and making it more of an actual practice facility for golfers rather than the Togolf experience of fancy screens and lights. It turns out golfers just want to practice.  

Well, that wasn't as planned. 

Golf Ranch sounds more reasonable. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 10:40

The Boundaries Dividing Political, Monetary, Fiscal, Trade And Other Policies Are Gone

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The Polycene and the Monocene

For over a decade our global strategy has warned the ‘liberal world order’ would collapse. Now, the New York Times’ Tom Friedman, in ‘Welcome to Our New Era. What Do We Call It?’, shares that “For the past few years, I have had to ask myself a question I never asked before in my life: What should we call the era we’re living in today?” He’s running with ‘The Polycene’, which in Greek means “There’s so much going on that a ‘Monocene’ focus on data won’t help.”

In markets stocks, tech, crypto, and even gold are down. Japanese 20-year JGB yields just hit the highest since 1999, prompting a meeting at 15:30 Japan time today between PM Takaichi and BOJ Governor Ueda – but what can be done endogenously that doesn’t smash either the JGB market or JPY? There are also warnings over private credit - yet we also continue to see circular-investing / vendor-financing mega deals in the AI space.

In geopolitics, the USS Ford has arrived in the Caribbean: what does that mean for Venezuela, as Chile is expected to see a US-friendly shift in its presidential election? In Asia, the US pulled a missile system from Japan as the Beijing–Tokyo row over Taiwan deepens despite the latter’s attempts to deescalate. In Europe, Berlin and Paris may scrap a planned joint fighter as France plans to supply Ukraine with 100 Rafales, upping the ante with Russia; Brussels warns the EU’s proposed €140bn Ukraine loan could have a “knock-on” impact on financial markets; Poland says a rail explosion there was an “unprecedented act of sabotage”; and the FT warns ‘The scramble for Europe is just beginning’, where “as the EU struggles to defend its interests, outside powers play divide and rule,” putting a new spin on ‘DM = EM’. In the Mid-East, the UN Security Council backed Trump’s plan for postwar Gaza, as the US intends to sell F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, whose more cash-strapped MBS will visit the White House today for arm twisting on expanding the Abraham Accords.

As military spending surges, the fiscal picture is worrying. Russia is raising VAT by 2 percentage points. The US is talking $2,000 cheques for working families paid for by tariffs. France still hasn’t agreed a budget. Germany is about to splurge on arms. Canada is borrowing far more, but not for that. The UK just saw market volatility over suggestions taxes wouldn’t be raised when the market had previously disliked the idea that they would. China is rolling out stimulus. Japan’s PM also wants fiscal stimulus… to lower inflation.

Supply chains are geopolitically squeezed. Both GM and Tesla say they won’t use Chinese parts in the US. German is freezing out Huawei and will bring in new tech controls aimed at China. The Dutch-Chinese Nexperia row rumbles on, and a new row has started. The US still hasn’t formally secured the China rare earths deal it wants. Positively, India says a US trade deal is closer after agreeing to take much more US LNG. Negatively, the US just warned Europe over trade foot-dragging, and the Chair of UBS has talked to Scott Bessent about moving the bank to the States.

Affordability remains a key issue in the West: there’s a Trump summit on it today. The situation is similar in other DM – and worse in EM. House prices are sky high: the average age of a US home buyer has risen to 59(!) A top Aussie banker says housing heat is raising concerns and calls to ‘Put the brakes on’ follow a record A$40bn investor blitz into property as everyone --but the central bank-- predicted would follow RBA rate cuts. Moreover, the AFR warns ‘China’s debt shock is coming. Our high house prices won’t protect us’, and “Australia’s economy isn’t ready.”

The threat of AI job losses is soaring. That’s as MAGA politicians are demanding transparency on AI job losses, where “Protecting US workers collides with need to outpace China”, and ‘Notices of Impending Layoffs by US Companies Surged in October’ (Bloomberg). Yet Elon Musk states his robots could end poverty and provide universal high incomes. So, what’s next: mass unemployment or ‘abundance’ or both? Which central bank has either in their models?

Political populism keeps rising. Mamdani won in New York. Trump has been forced to agree to release the Epstein files, as a far-right (and libertarian) ‘America First’ faction challenges MAGA. In Australia, the Nats/Libs Coalition is down sharply in the polls after it dropped a commitment to net zero and says it wants much lower immigration, as populist One Nation surges. In the UK, the Reform party says it would cut off benefits for EU citizens and slash overseas aid to save £25bn: the UK press says the police are preparing for civil war. On Friday, PM Takaichi announced she may change the corporate code to force Japanese firms to invest more or pay higher wages rather than return profits to shareholders. In Nepal, Indonesia, and Mexico Gen-Z protests just tried to bring down their governments. Again, central banks can’t capture this – but may be captured.

Indeed, D.L. Jacobs argues the Fed’s Miran aims to challenge the foundations of US monetary policy “because the world [Fed] forecasts are trying to measure no longer exists.” Keynesianism emerged in the Great Depression of the 1930s; monetarism with the Great Stagflation of the 1970s; hyper-neoliberalism in the post-Cold War 1990s; central bank QE in the post-GFC 2000s; and Miran argues the Treasury and Fed de facto merged in the 2020s so “The pretence of central bank independence has collapsed. Monetary policy is now politics conducted by other means.” And the US faces a panoply of (geo)political challenges.

“For Miran, the answer is not to restore a lost neutrality. It is to make that power accountable… the goal of central bank independence can be achieved only by new means.” We are seeing similar rhetoric from Reform in the UK and the RN in France. (As former Fed Governor Kugler is accused of violating trading ethics, current Governor Cook is in court to fight charges of mortgage fraud, ex-governor Clarida was forced to step down in 2022 over stock trading, and for-now current Governor Bostic was warned over the same.)   

New means means new thinking – and for Miran that’s part of the Mar-a-Lago Accords that also involves trade, the US dollar, and US Treasuries. The current account deficits required to give the world demanded Eurodollars mean US financialisation, polarisation, deindustrialisation, and de-hegemonisation – which the US now intends to resist, not accept.

As such, the boundaries dividing political, monetary, fiscal, trade and other policies are gone (as we had flagged) and, as Jacobs puts it, “Miran argues that coordination should be made deliberate and accountable. He’s on a mission to modernize US-led capitalism, turning ad-hoc crisis management into a coherent framework for political economy.”

But is there one and will it work? We think yes, and it remains to be seen. But that needs to be the market debate, not what payrolls, PMIs, or CPI will be. However, it’s also true that the worse those data are, the greater the pressure for revolutionary policy changes ahead of the key US mid-term elections.

For now avoiding all these debates, the RBA minutes of its November policy rate meeting showed one member pushing back on the idea that its unemployment and inflation goals bear equal weight --so which matters most?-- and the overall message was that the Reserve Bank will only consider cutting rates again if the labor market shows a serious deterioration. That’s the kind of deep Monocene thinking for which one is, or at least was, paid the big bucks. But in the world that exists today, is it possible that such an outcome could also correlate with a further surge in house prices anyway? And if so, then what?

That question doesn’t get asked anywhere near enough in anywhere near enough contexts.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 10:20

CBO's Director, Phillip Swagel, testifies before the House Committee on the Budget.

Factory Orders Data Show Rebound In August

As the macro data engine slowly starts to grind back into motion, we are given glimpses of what happened 'months' ago. Earlier we got some jobless claims data from four weeks ago, and now we get Durable Goods and Factory Orders data from August...

...and the data we got was kinda meh...

August Factory orders rose 1.4% MoM (a big swing from the 1.3% MoM decline in July and an even bigger drop in June) but in line with expectations. This bounce lifted Orders by 3.8% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

Core Factory Orders also rose (just 0.1% MoM), lifting orders 1.53% YoY in August...

Source: Bloomberg

More broadly, durable goods orders (final for August) rose 2.9% MoM (up from -2.8% in July) while Core Durable Goods Orders (ex-transports) rose 0.3% MoM (slightly less than the 0.4% expected) but remained solid for the fifth month in a row...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that Core shipments, an input for the GDP calculation, declined 0.4% (vs. +0.6% prior).

So, August was solid, but as a reminder, it's November!

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 10:12

The post Inherited Economies: Biden and Trump appeared first on CEPR.

Trump Blasts "Big, Fat, Rich Insurance Companies" As Lawmakers Propose Ways To 'Fix' Obamacare

Obamacare remains on center stage nearly a week after the government shutdown ended on Nov. 12.

The health coverage program, formally known as the Affordable Care Act Health Insurance Marketplace, was a driver of the government shutdown as Democrats demanded that temporary enhanced subsidies for the program be made permanent.

The shutdown ended only after Senate Republicans agreed to hold a vote on the matter, though they did not guarantee an outcome.

Democrats generally favor making the enhanced subsidies permanent.

Republicans, including President Donald Trump, have proposed alternatives they say will give Americans greater control over their health care spending and lower premiums.

Trump made it extremely clear what his preferred approach is this morning in a FULL CAPS post on Truth Social: (emphasis ours)

THE ONLY HEALTHCARE I WILL SUPPORT OR APPROVE IS SENDING THE MONEY DIRECTLY BACK TO THE PEOPLE, WITH NOTHING GOING TO THE BIG, FAT, RICH INSURANCE COMPANIES, WHO HAVE MADE $TRILLIONS, AND RIPPED OFF AMERICA LONG ENOUGH.

THE PEOPLE WILL BE ALLOWED TO NEGOTIATE AND BUY THEIR OWN, MUCH BETTER, INSURANCE. POWER TO THE PEOPLE!

Congress, do not waste your time and energy on anything else.

This is the only way to have great Healthcare in America!!!

GET IT DONE, NOW.

President DJT

Lawrence Wilson explains below, via The Epoch Times, why Obamacare is a hot issue right now and what both sides are proposing.

Premiums Continue to Rise

Commercial health insurance premiums have risen every year since 2008, according to Health System Tracker, a data collection site run by the nonprofits The Peterson Center on Healthcare and KFF.

Obamacare premiums have also risen nearly every year since the program began in 2014, with the exception of 2020–2023. Those were the first years of the enhanced premium subsidies, authorized by Congress as a temporary response to COVID-19 health emergencies.

The enhanced subsidies allowed people making more than four times the federal poverty level to buy subsidized coverage. They also capped the out-of-pocket premium costs at 8 percent of a person’s household income, with the government paying the rest. The enhanced subsidies are set to expire at the end of 2025.

Rates have risen each year since 2022 and will increase about 26 percent in 2026, on average, for the Benchmark Silver plan.

Direct Payments to Consumers

Trump floated the idea of giving low- and middle-income Americans a direct payment of $2,000 rather than providing a subsidy that is paid to insurance companies.

That would allow people to purchase their own insurance, Trump said in a Nov. 8 social media post. The president added that this would avoid putting more money into a health coverage system that, he said, provided inferior health coverage.

The White House is in discussion with lawmakers about the idea, Trump told reporters on Nov. 14.

“I’ve had personal talks with some Democrats,” he said, adding that the plan would allow consumers to negotiate their own price with an insurer.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is drafting legislation for a similar plan now. His plan would send money directly to individual Health Savings Accounts, much like Trump suggested.

“They can use it to spend on healthcare, so they can buy direct health care, or they can buy insurance, or [use it for] a co-payment or deductible,” Scott told Reporters on Nov. 10.

Consumers could use the funds to buy any plan authorized by their state’s insurance commission, he added.

Scott and some other Republicans believe the enhanced subsidies drive up the cost of health insurance for everyone while masking the increase to consumers.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) speaks during a hearing with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Capitol Hill in Washington on Sept. 4, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

“Insurers get paid no matter what—and taxpayers get stuck with the tab,” Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) said in a Nov. 7 speech.

Increasing federal payments in the hope of decreasing costs is “like putting a band-aid on a broken bone,” Cassidy said.

“Instead of paying insurance companies to manage our money, let’s trust Americans to manage their own care—with a pre-funded Federal Flexible Spending Account,” he said.

A Flexible Spending Account is similar to a Health Savings Account but is not owned by the individual and does not roll over from year to year.

Addressing Fraud and Abuse

Republicans generally have been reluctant to extend the enhanced subsidies without also addressing abuse of the Obamacare system, which they say rose dramatically after those subsidies were introduced.

The expiration date indicates that the subsidies were not considered a long-term solution, Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, said in a Fox News interview on Nov. 16.

“It creates incentives for fraud,” he said.

Data indicates that 4.4 million people are enrolled in Obamacare, apparently without their knowledge, Dr. Oz said. He noted that, unlike 80 percent of health insurance holders, this population has never used their coverage for a doctor visit, prescription, or any other medical service.

“There are discussions around extending the subsidies, if we deal with the fraud, waste, and abuse,” Dr. Oz said.

Administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Mehmet Oz speaks during an event in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on Oct. 16, 2025. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Temporary Extension

A bipartisan group of House members has introduced a bill to extend certain tax credits for Obamacare enrollees, which are set to expire at the end of the year.

The bill, sponsored by Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) and Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), would extend the “enhanced” premium tax credits for one year, avoiding an abrupt end to a financial benefit many Americans have come to rely on.

“While the enhanced premium tax credit created during the pandemic was meant to be temporary, we should not let it expire without a plan in place. My legislation will protect hardworking Virginians from facing health insurance bills they can’t afford, thus losing much-needed access to care,” Kiggans said in a statement.

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), a retiring lawmaker who helped negotiate the end of the shutdown, voiced optimism that a bipartisan solution is possible.

“I think there are a number of them who are very serious [about working to lower health coverage costs],” Shaheen told reporters on Nov. 10. She added that any solution would have to address the expiring subsidies.

Separately, a group of 32 bipartisan House members wrote to Senate leaders asking that they be included in any discussions on the upcoming health care reform vote.

“If we work together, our hope is that the bill will not only achieve a sixty-vote majority in the Senate, but will also then move to the House for immediate consideration and passage,” the group wrote, led by Kiggans and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.).

Adding Income Cap

Reps. Sam Liccardo (D-Calif.) and Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) have introduced legislation to control the cost of extending the enhanced subsidies by imposing an income cap on recipients.

Currently, anyone earning over four times the federal poverty level can qualify for the subsidy. This proposal would cap enrollment at six times the poverty level, or $192,900 for a family of four.

“This will provide short-term relief while we tackle broader reforms to lower the cost of care,” Kiley said in a Nov. 10 statement.

The plan would save approximately $5 billion over two years, the congressmen estimated.

The Senate is expected to vote on changes to Obamacare by mid-December.

That gives the 20 states and the District of Columbia that operate their own Obamacare marketplaces, plus the federal marketplace, about two weeks to make adjustments to their subsidy offers before 2026 coverage begins. Annual enrollment for Obamacare has been open since Nov. 1.

Any solution approved by the Senate must then pass the House and be signed by the president to become law.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 10:05

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 38, up from 37 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Sentiment Relatively Flat in November as Market Headwinds Persist

Market uncertainty exacerbated by the government shutdown along with economic uncertainty stemming from tariffs and rising construction costs kept builder confidence firmly in negative territory in November.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose one point to 38 in November, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.

“While lower mortgage rates are a positive development for affordability conditions, many buyers remain hesitant because of the recent record-long government shutdown and concerns over job security and inflation,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C. “More builders are using incentives to get deals closed, including lowering prices, but many potential buyers still remain on the fence.”

“We continue to see demand-side weakness as a softening labor market and stretched consumer finances are contributing to a difficult sales environment,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “After a decline for single-family housing starts in 2025, NAHB is forecasting a slight gain in 2026 as builders continue to report future sales conditions in marginally positive territory.”

In a further sign of ongoing challenges for the housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 41% of builders reported cutting prices in November, a record high in the post-Covid period and the first time this measure has passed 40%. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 6% in November, the same rate as the previous month. The use of sales incentives was 65% in November, tying the share in September and October.
...
The HMI index gauging current sales conditions increased two points to 41, the index measuring future sales fell three points to 51 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a one-point gain to 26.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose two points to 48, the Midwest fell one point to 41, the South increased three points to 34 and the West gained two points to 30.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

The index has been below 50 for nineteen consecutive months.

Elliott Mgmnt Builds 'Large' Stake In Barrick Mining As Central Bank Gold Buying Accelerates

Elliott Management has built a large stake in Barrick Mining Corp., the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

Elliott’s stake - valued at at least $700 million - puts it among Barrick’s 10 biggest investors, the FT cited the people as saying, and comes after the Canadian gold giant struggled to benefit from the metal’s rally.

Bloomberg reports that Barrick Interim CEO Mark Hill recently said he’s “shifting the focus” to assets in North America, where the company owns a bundle of lucrative gold mines that have considerable potential to expand. Previously, projects in Asia and Africa were at the core of the growth strategy.

Barrick Mining is trading around 4% higher in the pre-market, at its highest since 2012...

...notably outperforming gold in the last few weeks...

Elliott's reported 'buy the dip' of Barrick comes as Goldman Sachs precious metals team notes that central banks are also accelerating their buying of the barbarous relic.

The timing, size and speed of last Monday’s price increase are consistent with Asian central bank buying, which often appears in London prices around Asian trading hours and thus sees an initial decrease in the Shanghai-London price premium but is then often followed by delayed momentum buying in retail China and then the West.

We continue to see elevated central bank gold accumulation as a multi-year trend as central banks diversify their reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks.

Goldman's nowcast of central bank and institutional gold demand on the London OTC estimates September purchases at 64 tonnes (67 tonnes on a 12-month moving-average basis), up from 21 tonnes in August and consistent with the typical post-summer seasonal acceleration...

Estimated purchases were led by the Middle East - Qatar at 20 tonnes and Oman at 7 tonnes — and China at 15 tonnes...

The pickup in central bank buying, together with the largest monthly gold Western ETF inflow (112 tonnes) since mid-2022, marks the first time in this cycle that strong post-2022 central bank demand and such a sizable increase in ETF holdings have occurred simultaneously.

This combination alongside likely additional off-ETF physical buying by ultra-high net worth individuals (based on client conversations), likely contributed to September’s 10% rally - the strongest monthly increase in gold prices since 2016.

Finally, Goldman still expects continued central bank buying, alongside private investor flows under Fed easing, to lift gold prices to $4,900 by end-2026, with significant upside if the private investor diversification theme were to gain more traction.

Professional subscribers can read Goldman's full Precious Metals team note at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 09:45

Super Creepy 'The World Ahead 2026' Economist Magazine Cover Signals War, Pestilence, & Financial Collapse Next Year

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

There is one magazine that represents the interests of the global elite more than any other.  It is known as “The Economist”, and each year it puts out an issue that is dedicated to what is coming in the year ahead.  As we have seen so many times before, these issues tend to be alarmingly accurate.  The reason why they are so accurate is because the ultra-wealthy elite have an enormous amount of influence over the course of human events.  If they are absolutely determined to make something happen, there is a good chance that it is going to happen.  Ominously, it appears that they are anticipating a great deal of global chaos in 2026.

The Economist has been around since 1843, but it has never had a very large readership among the general population.

Ultimately, it is a publication by the elite and for the elite.

According to Wikipedia, it has editorial offices all over the planet but it is primarily based in the city of London…

The Economist is a British news and current affairs journal published in a weekly print magazine format and daily on digital platforms. Variously referred to as a magazine and a newspaper,[6][7] it publishes stories on topics that include economics, business, geopolitics, technology and culture. Mostly written and edited in London,[8] it has other editorial offices in the United States and in major cities in continental Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.[9][8] The publication prominently features data journalism, and has a focus on interpretive analysis over original reporting, to both criticism and acclaim.

Many of the wealthiest families in Europe are among the shareholders of the company, and Sir Evelyn Robert de Rothschild was actually the chairman from the early 1970s to the late 1980s…

Aside from the Agnelli family, smaller shareholders in the company include Cadbury, Rothschild (21%), Schroder, Layton and other family interests as well as a number of staff and former staff shareholders.[37][43] A board of trustees formally appoints the editor, who cannot be removed without its permission. The Economist Newspaper Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Economist Group. Sir Evelyn Robert de Rothschild was chairman of the company from 1972 to 1989.

If you want to know what the global elite are thinking, this is the publication that you need to be reading.

And the cover for “The World Ahead 2026” issue is perhaps the most ominous that they have ever published…

When you look at that cover, what stands out to you?

To me, the fact that there are so many symbols relating to war really got my attention.

There is a huge red tank on one side of the cover, and another huge red tank on the other side of the cover.

At the top there are several large missiles that look like they are ready to be launched, and at the bottom there are more large missiles.

Also, right in the middle we see two enormous swords that are crossed.

That is clearly meant to symbolize war.

Obviously they believe that war will continue to be a major theme in 2026, and that is something that I have been consistently warning about.

And they also seem to think that certain individuals will continue to be major players in world affairs during the coming year.

Volodymyr Zelensky is clearly visible in the upper right hand portion of the cover.

Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu appear to be depicted on the left hand portion of the cover.

And just like last year, Donald Trump is right in the middle.

On Monday, Trump refused to rule out the possibility of sending U.S. ground troops into Venezuela…

Asked if he would rule out US troops on the ground in Venezuela, Trump replied: “No I don’t rule out that, I don’t rule out anything.

“We just have to take care of Venezuela,” he added. “They dumped hundreds of thousands of people into our country from prisons.”

Personally, I think that this is a trap.

If we go to war with Venezuela, a large portion of our military forces will be tied up and our relations with the rest of the world will greatly suffer.

And Trump is also suggesting that military strikes in Mexico and Colombia could be coming…

President Trump hinted at being open to sending military strikes to Mexico and Colombia in order to stop drugs on Monday, sending chills across the region.

The president made the comments during a press conference on Monday as he hosted a meeting with FIFA President Gianni Infantino and the White House task force on the 2026 World Cup at the Oval Office.

“Would I launch strikes on Mexico to stop drugs? It’s OK with me. Whatever we have to do to stop drugs. Mexico is…look I looked at Mexico City over the weekend. There’s some big problems over there. If we had to would we do there what we’ve done to the waterways? You know there is almost no drugs coming through our waterways anymore. Isn’t it down like 85%?” the president said.

On the other side of the globe, I expect the conflict between Israel and Iran to erupt again, I expect the war in Ukraine to continue to escalate, and I will be watching China very, very closely.

Getting back to the magazine cover, I also noticed that there is a chart that seems to depict some sort of a financial crash right under the crossed swords.

And not too far below that chart, there is a red image of a broken dollar sign.

In addition, throughout the bottom half of the graphic it looks like paper currency is falling everywhere.

Wow.

Obviously they are trying to communicate something about the global economy, and it certainly isn’t good.

Will 2026 be a year of financial collapse?

We won’t have to wait too long to find out.

I also noticed two gigantic syringes near the bottom of the cover.

And throughout the cover there are lots of “pills” floating around.

I started to count them, but there are just too many.

So what does this mean?

Are they suggesting that another global pandemic is on the way?

Will 2026 be a year when people are taking shots and pills to try to protect themselves from a major pestilence that has broken out?

Interestingly, an outbreak of the Marburg virus has just been confirmed in Ethiopia…

Ethiopia has confirmed an outbreak of the deadly Marburg virus in the south of the country, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said on Saturday.

The Marburg virus is one of the deadliest known pathogens. Like Ebola, it causes severe bleeding, fever, vomiting and diarrhea and has a 21-day incubation period.

Also like Ebola, it is transmitted via contact with bodily fluids and has a fatality rate of between 25 and 80 per cent.

The head of the World Health Organization, Ethiopia’s Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, confirmed on Friday that at least nine cases had been detected in southern Ethiopia, two days after Africa CDC was alerted to a suspected haemorrhagic virus in the region.

Personally, I am convinced that pestilence will be a major theme in 2026.

I hope that all of you have been getting ready for that.

Lastly, I wanted to mention the giant raised fist near the top of the cover.

A raised fist has been the primary symbol of resistance to the Trump administration.

And I don’t think that it is an accident that the giant raised fist has been placed right on top of the American flag in this graphic.

Are the global elite planning civil unrest in major U.S. cities in 2026?

We know that they have been lavishly funding far left protest groups in this country.

Will 2026 be a year when mass protests against Trump go to the next level?

I think that is their plan.

I think that they fully intend to unleash chaos, and that fits perfectly with what I am expecting too.

Unfortunately for the elite, I do not believe that they will be able to control the chaos that is coming.

We really are right on the brink of a global nightmare, and once it starts nobody is going to be able to wake up from it.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 09:30

What GAO Found In September 2025, GAO identified 20 open recommendations under the purview of the Small Business Administration's (SBA) Chief Information Officer (CIO), from previously issued work. Each of these recommendations relates to a GAO High-Risk area: (1) Ensuring the Cybersecurity of the Nation or (2) Improving IT Acquisitions and Management. In addition, GAO has designated four of the 20 as priority recommendations. For example, GAO previously recommended that SBA fully define and document a process for ensuring that designated privacy officials are involved in assessing and addressing the hiring, training, and professional development needs of the agency with respect to privacy. Further, GAO recommended that SBA develop a project risk management strategy and risk mitigation plan for its newly deployed Unified Certification Platform. GAO also previously recommended that the agency complete annual reviews of its IT portfolio consistent with federal requirements. The CIO's continued attention to these recommendations will help ensure the secure and effective use of IT at the agency. Why GAO Did This Study CIO open recommendations are outstanding GAO recommendations that warrant the attention of agency CIOs because their implementation could significantly improve government IT operations by securing IT systems, identifying cost savings, improving major government programs, eliminating mismanagement of IT programs and processes, or ensuring that IT programs comply with laws, among others. For more information, contact Nick Marinos at marinosn@gao.gov.