My morning train WFH reads:

• Europe v America: Who’s Really Winning? A wonkish but important discussion (Paul Krugman)

• Finance in the Dark: The unregulated industry at the heart of the American economy (Phenomenal World)

• Data center builders thought farmers would willingly sell land, learn otherwise: Even in a fragile farm economy, million-dollar offers can’t sway dedicated farmers. (Ars Technica)

• The Looming Taiwan Chip Disaster: That Silicon Valley Has Long Ignored: If China invades Taiwan and cuts off its chip exports to American companies, the tech industry and the U.S. economy would be crippled. (New York Times)

• The Tax Nerd Who Bet His Life Savings Against DOGE: When an unusual opportunity opened in the prediction markets, Alan Cole took his chances. He just needed the government to be the government. (Wall Street Journal)

• Which piece of speculative fiction had the greatest single-day stock market impact? Oh, give my props to the writer. Price’s at an all-time low in the future. (Financial Times)

• Inside the Roberts Court and its Failures: The Chief Justice humiliated our Constitution when he offered a president a year-long you-don’t-need-to-obey-the constitution card before telling us the obvious about Trump’s illegal tariffs. (Lincoln Square)

• Training for New ICE Agents Is ‘Deficient’ and ‘Broken,’ Whistle-Blower Says: The former official appeared with congressional Democrats, who also released documents indicating significant reductions in instructional hours for recruits. (New York Times)

• How Covid Quietly Rewires the Brain: Researchers keep discovering more about the long-term neurological effects of SARS-CoV-2. Doctors call it Ondine’s curse—a catastrophic failure of the brain stem in which breathing no longer happens automatically, especially during sleep. It’s extremely rare, typically seen only in infants with genetic mutations or adults after severe trauma, and for a long time it wasn’t something doctors associated with viral infections. (Businessweek)

• How reading books regulates your nervous system: Books don’t just stimulate the mind — they trigger physiological changes throughout the body. (Big Think)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Jeff Chang, cofounder and President of VEST. The firm manages over $55 billion in client assets in various “Buffered” and “Target Outcome” strategies. The Y-Combinator backed firm launched in 2012, pioneered the approach to portfolio construction built on defined outcomes and engineered certainty.

Forecasting the impact of artificial intelligence has become fraught, with evangelists pitched against sceptics

Source: Financial Times

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The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Nicolas Van Praet of the Globe and Mail reports Caisse posts 9.3% return in 2025 on gains from stock holdings:

Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec tallied an 9.3-per-cent return last year as gains from stock holdings offset a neutral performance by real estate investments in an environment marked by ongoing trade strife, global conflict and the expansion of artificial intelligence across society.

Net assets stood at $517-billion at the end of 2025, up from $473-billion the year before, the Montreal-based pension fund manager said in a statement Wednesday. The annualized return over five years was 6.5 per cent.

“It’s really a new world order out there,” Caisse Chief Executive Charles Emond said in an interview, noting the power of AI-related themes over stock markets among other major shifts taking place. Investment diversification remains the key to delivering stable returns as the uncertainty persists, he said.

“The main risk we’re dealing with – and I would have never thought I’d say that during my career – is the U.S.,” Mr. Emond said. U.S. exceptionalism is still there, but it has eroded lately and “the level of trust” has been put to the test, he said. “It’s actually paid off to be invested elsewhere.”

The U.S. remains the deepest, most liquid and most attractive market for investors and the Caisse is not exiting the country, Mr. Emond insisted. But it is being more prudent in the way it invests there.

The pension fund pared back U.S. stock holdings last year while boosting credit activity. It also sold some U.S. office buildings while hedging more than usual on its U.S. dollar exposure. Roughly 40 per cent of its total assets are invested across the border.

The pension fund’s gain on equity market investments was 17.7 per cent for the year, the third best over the past decade, as it added to positions in other markets such as Europe and South Korea. Its infrastructure portfolio generated a 9.2-per-cent showing, driven by energy, ports and highway investments, while fixed income returned 6.6 per cent.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Caisse’s real estate holdings remained under pressure, delivering a 0.2-per-cent return as the market recovers. Private equity, usually a strong motor for the pension fund, generated a 2.3-per-cent gain as profit growth slowed for its portfolio companies and valuation multiples dropped in the technology and health care sectors.

The mixed results, which closely matched the previous year’s 9.4-per-cent return, highlight the magnitude of the challenges for Mr. Emond, a former Bank of Nova Scotia executive who took over as Caisse CEO in early 2020.

His tenure, which was recently extended to 2029, has been fraught with turmoil from the COVID-19 pandemic, record inflation, and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Donald Trump’s reclaiming of the White House has presented a new test: The President’s unpredictability has repercussions for trade and on the decisions of central bankers and corporate leaders.

The Caisse, which is independently run at arm’s length from the Quebec government, has a dual mandate to manage deposits with a view to achieving optimal returns while contributing to Quebec’s economic development. It is omnipresent in the province, investing in companies such as Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. and WSP Inc. and pushing into transit development with Montreal’s $8-billion Réseau express métropolitain light-rail system.

Quebec Premier François Legault said last November that the Caisse “needs to do even more” to back local projects and business in the face of Mr. Trump’s trade war against Canada, which has hurt aluminum makers and forestry companies in the province. “I think the situation is critical right now,” the Premier said at the time.

The Caisse now has assets in Quebec topping $100-billion, a target it set three years ago. It hasn’t set a new goal, vowing instead to be “more intentional” on the impact of future investments in strategic sectors such as natural resources, defence and energy, Caisse executive vice-president Kim Thomassin told reporters at a news conference.

Among its biggest domestic deals in the past 12 months, the Caisse bought Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. for about $2.8-billion and struck a $1.3-billion deal with Telus Corp. for a minority stake in a new cellphone tower spinout called Terrion. It also made a US$100-million equity investment in Champion Iron Ltd to support the miner’s acquisition of Norway’s Rana Gruber SA.

Earlier this month, the pension fund briefly suspended its deal-making with DP World Ltd. in the wake of revelations linking the chairman and chief executive of the logistics multinational to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein. It has since resumed working with its long-standing partner after the executive resigned. 

The only thing I will mention about this Epstein thing is the head of global ports operator DP World has left the company after mounting pressure over his links to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

The Caisse briefly suspended its operations after discovering this and has since resumed them. Obviously they had no idea Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem exchanged hundreds of emails with Epstein.

Anyway, today is a very big day because La Caisse posted its results and despite weakness in private equity and ongoing issues in real estate, they were solid powered by public equities, credit and infrastructure. Its Quebec portfolio also did well.

Now, this morning I virtually assisted the press conference from the comforts of my home and took a quick image of Charles Emond, Kim Thomassin and Vincent Delisle (at top of this post).

I must admit, that was the first time I virtually assisted this press conference and to my surprise, I thoroughly enjoyed it, thought Charles, Kim and Vincent did a great job and the slides which you will see below gave a perfect overview.

Typically I find these press conferences dreadfully boring and tiresome but this one was very well done, and for the most part, reporters asked decent questions and I told Charles, Kim and Vincent afterwards that they should post it publicly on their YouTube channel.

I'm not kidding, it was that good and if I was able to embed it, it would save me a lot of time explaining things.

One of the most important questions Charles tackled was why their underpeformance relative to benchmark over the last year (9.3% vs 10.9%) and whether it's worth investing in private markets.

Charles explained that they have a mandate from depositors to deliver returns taking risks into account and they have delivered strong gains over the long run by taking a diversified approach across public and private markets and this approach offers higher risk-adjusted returns. 

I'm paraphrasing but if I get the transcript in French, I will post it here and I thought that was extremely well answered. 

The only question I didn't like (it always irritates me) is how did La Caisse perform last year relative to its peers. Charles said their biggest client whose portfolio is closest to CPP Investments gained 9.8% last year which was better than CPP Investments' 7% return over last nice months and OMERS' 6% gain last year but we are comparing apples to oranges because the asset mixes aren't the same (CPP Investments and OMERS have more private market exposure).

There are so many factors that go into comparing returns across pension funds that I absolutely hate these questions and besides, they're all in great financial health, have way more assets than long-dated liabilities (and that's what ultimately counts, not outperforming each other). 

One year those that have more public market exposure will fare better, another those that have more private market exposure will fare better. Who cares? 

All of the Maple 8 funds underperformed Norway's sovereign wealth fund which gained 15.1% last year, it means absolutely nothing to me (all about asset mix!!).

Alright, let me get to this morning's press conference but before I do, some more articles in French:

•  La Caisse à la traîne pour une troisième année d’affilée
• La Caisse annonce un rendement de 9,3 % en 2025 
• Rendement de 9,3% pour la Caisse en 2025, sous la cible pour la troisième année consécutive 
• La performance de La Caisse pour 2025 a été en deçà des attentes 

Basically the French media is savage, La Caisse underperformed its benchmark for a third straight year, but overall performed well and beat OMERS (again, who cares?).

Morning Press Conference With Charles Emond, Kim Thomassin and Vincent Delisle

As mentioned above, I really liked this morning's press conference, so much so that I believe La Caisse should make it public and post it on YouTube as soon as possible (la transparence avant tout!).

Before I get to the slides, here is La Caisse's press release stating it posted a 9.3% return in 2025 and net assets of $517 billion:

• The depositor plans are in excellent financial health
• The base plan of the Québec Pension Plan, representing the pensions of more than six million Quebecers and the largest fund invested with La Caisse, earned a return of 9.8%
• The ambition of $100 billion invested in Québec achieved one year early

La Caisse today presented its financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025. The weighted average return on its 48 depositors’ funds was 9.3% for one year, below its benchmark portfolio’s 10.9% return. Over longer terms, performance is above the benchmark portfolio: over five years, the annualized return was 6.5%, with the benchmark portfolio at 6.2%; over ten years, it stood at 7.2%, against the benchmark portfolio’s 6.9%. As at December 31, 2025, La Caisse’s net assets totalled $517 billion.

In 2025, the environment was marked by geopolitical tensions and persistent tariff uncertainty. Nevertheless, the global economy proved resilient and stock markets once again posted a robust performance. Although central banks generally lowered their key rates, long-term bond yields moved in different directions, falling in the United States but rising in several other countries, including Canada.

“Last year, our overall portfolio posted a good return, with the right level of risk for our depositors. As public markets were particularly strong, they were the main driver of our annual performance. In an environment shaped by uncertainty and profound changes that are likely to persist, diversification remains essential, allowing each asset class to play its part across different market conditions,” said Charles Emond, President and Chief Executive Officer of La Caisse.

“Looking back at the past five years, markets have been volatile and difficult to follow, with pronounced differences between asset classes and sharp fluctuations from one year to the next. Having stayed the course with numerous transactions in key sectors around the world, the advancement of structuring projects in Québec, and the rollout of a new climate strategy even against strong headwinds, all while maintaining the excellent financial health of our depositor plans, are all reasons to be proud of the role and impact of this major institution for Québec,” he added.

Return highlights

As at December 31, 2025, La Caisse’s investment results totalled $43 billion for one year, $134 billion over five years and $245 billion over ten years.

Forty-eight depositors with different objectives

La Caisse manages the funds of 48 depositors—mainly for pension and insurance plans. The overall portfolio’s one-year, five-year and ten-year returns represent the weighted average of these funds. To meet their objectives, investment strategies are adapted to individual depositor risk tolerances and investment policies, which differ considerably.

For one year, returns for La Caisse’s nine largest depositors’ funds ranged from 8.6% to 10.4%. Over longer periods, the annualized returns varied between 4.6% and 7.8% over five years, and between 5.8% and 8.0% over ten years.

The largest fund invested with La Caisse, the base plan of the Québec Pension Plan, administered by Retraite Québec, posted a return of 9.8% for one year, 7.8% over five years and 8.0% over ten years. As at December 31, 2025, its net assets were $163 billion, including the additional plan.

Equities

Equity Markets: Beneficial geographic diversification

Stock markets experienced a year of rotation in 2025, with the U.S. market being perceived as more uncertain, and giving up ground to other stock markets, such as those in Europe, Canada and emerging countries. The latter benefited from good performances in a variety of sectors, including technology, as well as materials and finance. Sound geographic diversification, combined with the quality of execution by portfolio managers, enabled the Equity Markets portfolio to record a return of 17.7%, its third-best performance in ten years, and to outperform the index in the vast majority of mandates. The benchmark index stands at 18.2%. The difference over the period is mainly due to the more limited contribution of certain Québec stocks in the portfolio, as well as its low exposure to the gold segment, which grew sharply during the year.

Over five years, the annualized return was 12.4%, above the 12.1% return of the benchmark portfolio. Performance therefore outpaced the benchmark index despite growing concentration of gains in the main stock market indexes during the period. The portfolio benefited from the 2021 changes aimed to take advantage of technology stocks. The launch of systematic management strategies, which leverage data processing capabilities using augmented intelligence, has also had a significant positive impact.

Private Equity: Slower growth affects portfolio

In 2025, the Private Equity portfolio posted a 2.3% return. This was the result of slowing earnings growth for portfolio companies and lower multiples in the technology and health care sectors. Some investments, although performing well since the initial investment, experienced a setback and weighed on performance during the year, despite the good performance of companies in the industrials sector. The benchmark index, half of which is made up of public stocks, returned 12.6%, as public markets were much more robust than the private market.

Over five years, the portfolio has been one of the main drivers of overall performance, boosted by investments in the industrial, financial and technology sectors, delivering an annualized return of 11.6%. Over the period, the more moderate performance of a handful of stocks explains the difference with the portfolio’s performance relative to its index, which stood at 14.7%.

Fixed income

Credit activities are a strong vector of performance

The majority of the Fixed Income asset class is comprised of the Credit and Rates portfolios, with the latter serving as a source of liquidity for the overall portfolio. In 2025, the asset class generated a 6.6% return, above its benchmark index’s 4.6%. The Credit portfolio was a strong performance driver, with a return of 9.6%. It recorded its best ever performance against its index, which posted a 6.6% return, due to results obtained in the private segment, emerging market sovereign debt and the quality of execution by the teams.

Over five years, the asset class posted an annualized return of -0.2%, compared with a benchmark return of -1.1%. The good performance of the Credit portfolio over the period, driven by Capital Solutions and Corporate Credit activities, boosted the asset class, but failed to offset the impact from the strongest bond market correction in 50 years that occurred in 2022.

Real assets

Infrastructure: Consistent performance in diverse market environments

The portfolio has maintained its momentum of recent years, delivering a return of 9.2% in 2025. It benefited from an attractive current yield of 5.0% and the quality of portfolio assets. Energy, ports and highways were the largest contributors to performance. The benchmark index, made up entirely of public stocks, returned 13.4%. It was buoyed by the growth of companies in the electricity segment, which continues to be stimulated by the historic demand for artificial intelligence and weighs heavily in the index.

Over five years, the annualized return was 10.8%, outpacing the index’s 8.0% return. The portfolio continues to benefit from asset diversification, with the energy, transportation and telecommunications sectors leading the way, as well as from its strong current yield, across very different cycles over the period, marked in particular by higher inflation.

Real Estate: Progress on turnaround plan in an industry still under pressure

For one year, the portfolio posted a 0.2% return, compared with 1.8% for its benchmark index. In a gradually recovering market, direct portfolio assets in the logistics and residential sectors, as well as offices and shopping centres, posted a 4.4% return, a sign that rental incomes and property values are stabilizing. However, this return was offset by the high cost of financing. Lower performance of assets in China largely explains the difference with the index. It should be noted that the teams were particularly active in portfolio turnover, achieving a high transaction volume, totalling nearly $11 billion, or double the previous year’s figure.

Over five years, the portfolio’s annualized return was 1.2%, affected by its exposure to the office sector, which has been weakened by changes in working habits, but whose effects were mitigated by favourable performance in logistics. The benchmark index returned 1.4%, reflecting the challenges faced by the industry in recent years.

Global strategies that generate value

La Caisse’s teams also employ global strategies to optimize performance, including positioning on macro factors and foreign currency management:

• Macro tactical strategies contributed positively to overall portfolio performance in 2025, successfully navigating the volatility seen during the year, particularly in April with the unveiling of U.S. tariff policy, which prompted significant movement in global financial markets. These overlay activities, which are designed to improve the risk-return profile and enhance overall performance against the benchmark portfolio, have generated $1.2 billion in added value over one year.
• While the portfolio’s exposure to foreign currencies had an adverse impact on 2025’s overall performance due to the sharp depreciation of the U.S. dollar, the partial hedging of this currency put in place by the teams nevertheless protected $3.6 billion.

Québec: Ambition of $100 billion achieved ahead of schedule, with investments in local companies and impactful projects

In 2025, La Caisse’s assets in Québec reached $100.1 billion. The organization deployed $6.3 billion in new investments and commitments during the year.

Among the teams’ accomplishments, we note:

Support to grow companies in key sectors

• Innergex: Privatization of this renewable energy leader, bringing the enterprise value to $10 billion
• Boralex: $200-million financing, doubling existing debt financing in this company of which La Caisse has been a major shareholder for nearly ten years
• Honco Group: Minority interest to consolidate Québec ownership of this steel processing specialist
• Ocean Group: Additional investment in the context of the shareholder structure evolution of this maritime industry leader in Québec and Canada, bringing La Caisse’s stake to $120 million
• Germain Hotels: Lead of a $160-million financing round to accelerate its expansion and support the company’s succession

Structuring projects: An edge for Québec

• REM: Commissioning of the Deux-Montagnes branch, tripling the network’s coverage, with 19 stations spanning 50 km
• TramCité: Announcement of the six consortia qualified for two major contracts in the request for expressions of interest process, an important step in the procurement process for this 19 km tramway project in Québec City
• Alto Québec City-Toronto high-speed train: Cadence team, led by CDPQ Infra, selected as private partner by the Government of Canada and contract signed with the project authority
• Terrion: Transaction worth close to $1.3 billion to create, with Telus, the largest specialized wireless tower operator in Québec and to establish the head office in Montréal
• Laurentian Bank: Support for the acquisition transaction by National Bank and Fairstone Bank, through guarantees obtained to maintain Laurentian Bank’s commercial head office and to relocate Fairstone Bank’s head office to Québec
• AI expertise: Launch and implementation of a program powered by Vooban to support company productivity in the face of tariff challenges; recruiting for a new cohort currently underway

Climate: A new strategy for increased impact in all sectors of the economy

After exceeding the climate targets set in 2017 and then raised in 2021, La Caisse has developed a new strategy to accelerate the decarbonization of companies and significantly increase its investments linked to the energy transition by 2030, both in Québec and internationally. The objective remains: create sustainable value for depositors while managing the climate risks associated with its portfolio assets. La Caisse’s approach was well received by the Canadian group Shift: Action for Pension Wealth and Planet Health, which placed it first in its annual ranking.

By 2030, La Caisse aims to increase its Climate Action investments to $400 billion, in line with its commitment to carbon neutrality by 2050. This strategy is based both on investments in companies that clearly and credibly integrate climate issues into their business model, and on investments in climate solutions, i.e. companies, activities or technologies that help reduce carbon emissions. To find out more, visit this page or see the Sustainable Investing Report to be published in spring 2026.

Financial reporting

The costs incurred by La Caisse to conduct its activities include operating expenses, external management fees and transaction costs. In 2025, operating expenses decreased to 21 cents per $100 of average net assets, compared with 23 cents in 2024 and 26 cents in 2023. This significant reduction in the operating expenses over the past two years reflects the efficiency efforts made by the organization, particularly since the integration of its real estate subsidiaries. The total cost of internal and external investment management is 74 cents per $100 of average net assets as at December 31, 2025, compared with 67 cents in 2024 and 83 cents in 2023. Note that this figure varies depending on different factors, such as asset size, transaction volume and external management fees paid. Cost management remains a priority for the organization and, based on external data, La Caisse’s cost ratio is among the lowest in the industry.

The credit rating agencies reaffirmed La Caisse’s investment-grade ratings with a stable outlook, namely AAA (DBRS), AAA (S&P), Aaa (Moody’s) and AAA (Fitch Ratings).

About La Caisse

At La Caisse, formerly CDPQ, we have invested for 60 years with a dual mandate: generate optimal long-term returns for our 48 depositors, who represent over 6 million Quebecers, and contribute to Québec’s economic development.

As a global investment group, we’re active in the major financial markets, private equity, infrastructure, real estate and private credit. As at December 31, 2025, La Caisse’s net assets totalled CAD 517 billion. For more information, visit lacaisse.com or consult our LinkedIn or Instagram pages.

La Caisse is a registered trademark of Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec that is protected in Canada and other jurisdictions and licensed for use by its subsidiaries. 

And here are the slides that accompanied the press conference this morning:

 

The slides provide a great snapshot of key activities by asset class and overall returns and along with the comments Charles Emond, Kim Thomassin and Vincent Delisle made during the press conference, I think they covered it all very well.

I would urge all of Canada's Maple 8 to do the same thing and post your press conferences on YouTube just like Norway's NBIM does. 

I'll give La Caisse's Communications department an A for this press conference (A+ if they post it on YouTube). 

Discussing 2025 Results With Vincent Delisle, Head of Liquid Markets at La Caisse

This afternoon, I had a chance to talk results and markets with Vincent Delisle, Head of Liquid Markets at La Caisse.

I want to thank him and Conrad Harrington who set up the Teams meeting.

Vincent began by giving me an overview of the results:

We're quite happy with the results. The RRQ, the CPP equivalent, comes in close to 10%. These results exceed the ask from our depositors. The funds are well funded, in very, very good health. What we're seeing is some strong returns from Public Equities, Infra and Credit which had a had a great year. Real Estate, still tough, but better than it was last year. Private Equity is somewhat disappointing for the year, coming in at 2% but it's been a significant tailwind in terms of performance on a 5 and 10 year horizon. Our business is to have a diversified portfolio focused on requirements from our depositors, adjusted for risk. So we're happy with the returns that we generated in today's environment where public equities had another stellar year in 2025, so it's been three years of very robust performing for all things public equities. It has an impact on our value added, because obviously our private portfolios -- private equity portfolios, benchmarked against that, Infra as well. So these are, these are challenges for our industry in terms of how the performance is perceived and and received, but we're quite happy with how we executed last year.  

I then asked Vincent specifically about PE: "A couple questions here on private equity. I don't know if you even know this. Were the returns mostly due to significant write downs taken in one or two investments, or was it just broad based valuation contraction of the multiples?"

He responded"

When you look at the private equity portfolio, profit growth for our companies was up six to 7% which is pretty much in line with what we're seeing in the industry. Valuations were hit by rising interest rates and there were one or two writedowns that took the numbers down from 6-7% to 2%.

In Real Estate, I told him I heard Charles say this morning that they sold some office towers in the US and he confirmed this:

Yes, we had some strategic dispositions in the US, absolutely. The key turnaround for this team in this portfolio, is going from a real estate operator to a real estate investor. And we were, we're rejigging the philosophy of this portfolio, rebuilding the team while the industry is going through some very, very challenging times. The numbers last year basically flattish on the year, better than what we did the year prior, at minus 11%, but it's still navigating within an industry that is see some significant headwinds.

I asked him what the split is at the Caisse between private and public markets and off the top of his head he said roughly 65/35 public vs private.

I then stated private credit and emerging market debt boosted the returns of the Credit portfolio and asked him to give me a bit more flavour there.

He shared this:

Just to be clear for us, Liquid markets includes public equities and all of fixed income, including private credit. So why is that? Our private loans mature within two to three years, so we get the liquidity coming back quite quickly. The emphasis here on liquid markets and then public. The credit portfolio had a stellar year in 2025, 9.6% absolute return outperformance relative to its benchmark and the way that portfolio has been structured from day one in 2017 was a hybrid between public credit and private credit. 

We do a lot of arbitrage to make sure that the premium that we're getting on the private side is worth, you know, giving away the liquidity. And we also have a the emerging market debt strategy in there that brings a very solid construction to the credit portfolio. It also brings volatility. I'm not going to lie to you, but when things work out like they did last year, we ticked all the boxes on the on the credit side. We didn't start doing emerging market debt last year. We've been doing it since 2017. What worked for us, or for emerging market debt in 2025 is a is basically a combination of two things, yields went down in markets in countries like Colombia, Brazil and Mexico, and their currencies appreciated. We had not seen that double that positive combo in recent years, so that was a significant driver of performance. On the private credit side, it was still a very, very, very good year, but the contribution from emerging market debt is really where the outperformance came from in 2025.

I asked him if he could give me the breakdown of the Credit portfolio which he did:

As of December 31 2025, 56% of the credit portfolio is allocated to privates, and remaining 44% is on the on the public side. Every year we're in our strategic plan. The goal, the objective, is to deploy $20 to $22 billion to new loans on the on the private side. In recent years, the amount of refinancing has been very elevated. So, for instance, last year we deployed $21 billion, we got $17 billion in refinancing, so the net increase was only $4 billion. But the teams can deploy, you know, they're very solid. The deployment is allocated to bank loans, direct lending, infrastructure debt, real estate debt, and also capital solutions team.

I told him I did see they are looking to double the private credit portfolio over the next five years and asked him if that's feasible.

He replied: 

It is feasible we can deploy. The teams are deploying north of $20 billion a year right now, getting north of $20 billion,we need refinancings to slow. And the thing we don't control is what happens on the public side. The key differentiator when you look at our credit portfolio relative to the Maple 8s, I think there are two differentiation. We do emerging market debt in there on the credit side, and we, we have the pool of public and private under the same house. There's an arbitrage. Every single deal that comes true has to be the public benchmark. I'm mentioning this because if credit spreads on the public side widen significantly, there will be a period where we're not going to allocate as aggressively on the credit side, but the strategic planning takes us above $120 billion.

He added: 

I think is very, very smart. And the portfolio was built that way in 2017 and we've seen instances where spreads widen significantly, and we can dial down, the tap, and then we dialed it back, back up. I think it's significant advantage. 

I moved on to public equities where I read they were underweight gold shares and some Quebec stocks  cost them some performance last year.

Vincent replied:

When you, when you look at the performance of our public equity portfolio, we outperform the MSCI World, and we outperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets. So our internal teams, our external teams, added value. It is a very tough environment to add value, and when you look at our positioning relative to the world, we're second quartile. And I'm very proud of that. The mandate where we had more difficulties last year was our Canadian mandate. We have some exposure to gold, but not to the same extent as the as the benchmark and a few Quebec stocks had more difficult years on a relative basis, that's the only mandate where we underperformed last year. So all things global, and I'm always very proud to mention this, but 100% of what we manage global and em internally, is managed here from our offices in Montreal, by our by our quant teams and fundamental teams, and they, they had a great year.

He told me their benchmark is MSCI Acqui for 80% and 20% is a Canada benchmark because their home bias and the large position they have in Canada.

We moved on to US stocks where I noted concentration risk was high again last year. I noted this year software stocks are getting slammed and chip stocks, especially memory, are surging again. 

Vincent noted the following:

There are a lot of things going on. So let me touch on a few topics, concentration and how it is making it challenging for investors. There's two concepts of concentration, the one that was very challenging form 2020 to 2024, was the concentration in the benchmark that was going up, so the FANGs become the Mag-7s, and all of a sudden, you know, the Mag-7s account for 33% or so of the S&P 500. 

The other aspect of concentration is concentration of gains. And even though the Mag-7s last year did not dominate. The concentration of gains was very, very high. So you take the time the 10 largest contributors to the S&P 500 last year, you get the 68% it was north of 50 in 2024 and 2023. In your average year, pre-Covid, you're running at 25 to 30% so that aspect, when you have a diversified portfolio, makes it very tough. 

How do we navigate this? In 2020 we had very little technology exposure. We had to do something. 2021, 2022 and 2023 we significantly increased our US / tech exposure, and we kind of capped it off in 2024 and in 2025 we reduced our US exposure as I mentioned this morning. 

We're trying to play that. We're trying, but we're much more selective in how we we get exposure to the AI thematic, the technology thematic. We find better opportunities outside the US. We don't want to play the hyperscalers just being naive and chasing the hyperscalers. So last year, what helped us is we reallocated some US exposure into European financials, Korean tech, Taiwan tech and Japanese industrials and financials. 

On AI. AI has been dominating everything since 2022 but the way AI dominates has changed significantly since last fall. And this year, it's quite amazing to see what's going on, because the big spenders, hyperscaler spenders, are not getting the retribution anymore. There's the market's much more selective and doesn't give the benefit of the doubt to everybody that's spending like like crazy, and then you have a whole SWAT of industries that are getting penalized because of the fear of of disruption.

Our thesis is that we think the markets can still move a bit higher but our thesis is that there's, there will be broadening of leadership. And there are many, many sector that have been left for dead in the last few years that are coming back alive this year. So the rotation is, is very visible year to date, not only geographically. Last year was more geography, but this year is more on the sectoral basis, energy, materials, transports, consumer staples, REITs. These are all names that have not been talked about leadership in in recent years. So very selective on how we play AI geographically, more more opportunistic on the EAFE space, and broadening participation is how we try to align our portfolios. 

I noted the S&P Equal Weight Index (RSP) is outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) this year and this is a good environment for active managers.

Vincent shared this:

The environment of a concentration disadvantage that was prevailing in recent years, having the US equal weight outperforming the market cap weighting is going to make life easier for portfolios that are more diversified. And look at the spread right now on my screen, RSP plus six. Spider up one. Yes, it is an environment where actually being be more prudent. And, you know, diversifying within sectors and geography makes it, makes it easier to beat the benchmarks.

I told him that we are only two months into the year and things can change on a dime so it's too early to predict the end of tech this year.

He added:

We must not prematurely call it over. It kind of started in Q4 and it accelerated in January and February. And from our standpoint, the reason why this rotation has been ongoing is twofold. First, there's some signs of life, nascent signs of life in US and global manufacturing, the PMIs and the the ISMs have been in recession for over three years. The New Order components are now back above 50. If we get an ISM increasing type of market this year, then more cyclical, the real economy sectors should perform better. And the other reason why, we had to give credence and weight to this rotation out of tech. It's getting more complicated within the tech sector as well. Software is getting killed. Memory is skyrocketing every day, the hyperscalers, some are performing, others not. So it would be, would it be surprising to see tech as a whole come back with the same extent of domination, but it could happen. 

But he added:

Software is certainly one area where you have to ask yourself, is the selloff overdone? Because there's no doubt companies in every area will be changed by what AI brings to the table. But the speed at which we've seen market cap evaporate in many, many industries, it begs the question, how much is too much? Right? 

Lastly, I asked him what worries him in terms of the macro environment?

Vincent shared his concerns:

Interest rates is where I keep my focus. I'm worried that eventually we can't have our cake and eat it too like we have. We can't have an economy that gets somewhat better and rates moving moving lower. 2025 was all about tariff shock. 2025 was all about central banks cutting rates aggressively. 2026 could see some slight improvements in global growth, exports, trade, manufacturing. If that happens, then we start pricing the next move from central banks in 27/28. 

I am more focused on what changes the trend in interest rates. You know, we've been living with so many fears and headlines over the recent years. You know, tariffs, wars in the Middle East. I'm paying very close attention to oil, because oil doesn't get enough credit for how inflation was tame last year. Oil is up 15% one five. Year to date, it's only late February, that that could throw a wrench into the pretty inflation picture that we have. 

I asked him what he thinks about AI unleashing a massive deflationary wave and he said this:

Well, it's hard to argue against that because we don't have any concrete evidence yet. AI will certainly have the same positive impact on productivity as what we saw with with technology, the internet, in the 2000s and 2010. Then you have these, you know, population, immigration, you know constraints. Look at Japan, look at the US, look at Canada. I wouldn't say it's smooth sailing for inflation just because AI is, is upon us. 

Great food for thought, so pay attention to oil and rates as they might be moving up over the next two years.

I wrapped it up there and thanked Vincent and Conrad. 

Conrad subsequently responded to an email question of mine on currency hedging and how much the slide in the US dollar cost them last year:

Regarding currency hedging, we partially hedged the USD exposure. Through this partial hedge, we protected $3,6 billion. The USD had a negative impact of around $6 billion (it would have been close to $10 without hedging). Please see the find the relevant section from our press release (see above).

Alright, that's a wrap.

Below,The Caisse posted an annual return of 9.3% for 2025, a result that, however, fell short of its benchmark portfolio's return of 10.9%, due to "geopolitical tensions" and "persistent tariff uncertainty."

This difference compared to its benchmark portfolio means that the Caisse's return in 2025 was lower than that of the financial indices to which it compares its performance.

Nevertheless, Quebecers' savings are doing well, assures the Caisse, which points out that its five-year annualized return of 6.5% surpasses its benchmark portfolio's 6.2%. Over a 10-year period, the Caisse posted an annualized return of 7.2%, while its benchmark portfolio's return was 6.9%.

RDI's Olivier Bourque explains the details (in French).

I like this clip because a minute in, Charles Emond is quoted saying they're highly diversified, looking to hit singles and doubles, not home runs.  

Supertanker Rates Hit Six-Year High: Here's What Driving It

Global very large crude carrier (VLCC) rates have jumped to six-year highs due to two recent catalysts: first, a growing war-risk premium tied to the possibility of a US-Iran conflict, and second, ongoing consolidation in fleet ownership that is tightening vessel availability.

Let's begin by noting that war-risk insurance premiums are rapidly being priced into VLCC tanker rates. The Strait of Hormuz has once again come into focus as the world's most important energy chokepoint, where any flare-up in a US-Iran conflict could prompt Iranian commanders to shut the strait down, sparking what would only be immediate panic in global energy markets.

Latest Polymarket pricing for "US strikes Iran by...?" implies a 47% probability of a U.S. military strike by March 15. 

A war-risk premium has also been priced into Brent crude futures, with prices trading above $70 per barrel late Wednesday morning.

Bloomberg reports that Bahri, the National Shipping Co. of Saudi Arabia, chartered five VLCCs to transport up to 2 million barrels from the Middle East to China at a rate of $200,000 per day. According to the Baltic Exchange in London, that is the highest rate in six years. One of the ships Bahri chartered, the DHT Jaguar, was booked at $208,000 per day.

Supertanker rates are rising for two reasons:

1. Rising fears of a potential US-Iran conflict, and a vessel supply squeeze caused by a South Korean shipowner aggressively putting on charters.

2. South Korea's Sinokor group has recently amassed control of roughly 120 VLCC supertankers, dramatically tightening global supply and contributing to the rise in tanker rates.

"You have one party or group of people who are working together who effectively control around a third of the available or traded tanker VLCC fleet out there," Ole Hjertaker, chief executive officer of shipping firm SFL Corp., told investors on a call earlier this week, without naming the parties.

Svein Moxnes Harfjeld, chief executive of tanker company DHT Holdings Inc., told investors on another call that a "fundamental shift" in global fleet consolidation is underway.

"We can say with confidence that this is taking place and already making an impact, both on freight rates in the spot market, customer demand for time charters, and values of second-hand VLCCs," Harfjeld said. "This consolidation is shifting the pricing dynamics and is putting pressure on timely availability of ships."

Aristidis Alafouzos, chief executive officer of Okeanis Eco Tankers, noted, "This market consolidation, occurring at an unprecedented level, by a buyer with deep financial power, occurs at a time when market fundamentals continue to get tighter. It all creates an amazing opportunity if you have tankers on the water today, and the commercial ability to capture such market to its full extent."

June Goh, a senior analyst at Sparta Commodities, said, "VLCC freight rates have seen many positive fundamental drivers, starting with Venezuela barrels moving on legitimate freight vs a dark fleet before, increased OPEC+ production and healthy crude demand from refineries, particularly from India, which has moved from Russian to Middle Eastern barrels."

"Suezmax and Aframax markets will soon receive the spillover effects in the dirty freight market," Goh said, referring to smaller tankers.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/25/2026 - 16:40

Outrage In Sacramento: California Parole Board Grants Release Of Serial Child Rapist

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

The California Parole Board’s decision to release a serial child molester who used candy and toys to lure children as young as three years old has sparked outrage from victims, prosecutors, and law enforcement officials.

David Allen Funston, 64, was convicted in 1999 of sixteen counts of kidnapping and child molestation after a horrific crime spree in Sacramento County, during which he kidnapped, raped, and beat eight children aged 3 to 7.

The judge described him as “the monster parents fear the most” and sentenced him to three consecutive life terms plus 20 years.

Funston was recently granted parole under California’s Elderly Parole Program, which allows inmates over 50 who have served at least 20 years to be considered for release.

He was initially denied parole in May 2022 but was granted suitability for release in September 2025.

Governor Gavin Newsom (D.) requested a review of the decision and the Board of Parole Hearings reaffirmed it on February 18, 2026.  

Newsom did not override the decision.

Former prosecutor Anne Marie Schubert, who prosecuted Funston in what she called “the worst child predator case I’ve ever seen,” has urged the state to screen him for the Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) program, which would allow civil commitment to a state hospital instead of public release.

“He was hunting for young children,” Schubert, now a victim’s rights advocate, told the Modesto Bee. 

 “It boggles the mind. He’s the poster child for why sex offenders should be exempt from elderly parole.”

Court records at the time showed Funston had a prior sexual assault conviction in Colorado before moving to California. According to authorities, he served time in a Colorado prison for third-degree sexual assault but was never required to register as a sex offender when he relocated to Sacramento County.

“He is a serial predator is what he is,” Deputy District Attorney Hillary Bagley said in 1996 as charges mounted ahead of his 2½ month trial, according to previous Bee reporting. “He is every parent’s worst nightmare.”

Schubert provided graphic details to the Los Angeles Times of a horrible case in 1995,  where Funston used candy to lure a 5-year-old girl into his car, and then took her up into the hills and molested her.

“He beat her. He took her underwear and shoved it down her throat because she was screaming. He then raped her to the point that she has vaginal trauma,” Schubert recalled.

Sacramento County Sheriff Jim Cooper held a press conference Monday and blasted the parole board’s decision to release the dangerous predator back onto the streets.

“He lured them with candy and Barbie dolls. He stole their childhoods. I’ve seen the reports. They’re horrific,” Cooper said.

The sheriff described how Funston kidnapped one little girl in 1995, “viciously” raped her and then drove her to another location where he punched her and kicked her out of the car.

“There’s no explanation. There are some folks who deserve a second chance at life—someone who does these types of things doesn’t deserve a second chance at life,” Cooper said.  “The people of Sacramento and every parent across California, deserve answers.”

The sheriff questioned why California would “be okay” with this releasing an infamous child predator like Funston back onto the streets and said California’s parole program needs to be changed.

Sergeant Rafael Rodriguez, who had worked the case in the 1990s as a detective, said he was “outraged” when he read that the monster he helped put behind bars was about to be released.  Rodriguez told reporters that the entire Sacramento police bureau has not forgotten the appalling Funston case.

The sergeant said he immediately called Sheriff Cooper and said, “we can’t allow this. This is wrong.”

He lamented that while Funston is being released back onto the streets, his victims are serving the life sentences that come with severe trauma.

“Wherever he is going to be released to better watch him,” Rodriguez warned.

During the presser, Undersheriff Mike Ziegler stressed that child molesters like Funston cannot be rehabilitated.

“There are certain crimes that cannot be rehabilitated and this is one of them,” Ziegler said.

Amelia, who was 3-year-old when she was molested by Funston, also spoke during the presser to plead with the state to keep him incarcerated for life.

“I feel that he does not deserve his freedom,” she said. “He does not need to be back in public society. He is a criminal child molester who is dangerous and deserves to spend the rest of his life behind bars,” she added.

The Sacramento Sheriff’s Office provided additional details about the case in a statement on X Monday.

“The Elderly Parole Program was meant for those who no longer pose a danger. In cases like this, it fails. Our number one responsibility is to protect children. That should never be controversial or partisan,” the sheriff’s office stated.  “Protecting children is not rhetoric. It is common sense. Protect children first. Always.”

Funston remains incarcerated at the California Institution for Men in Chino, and the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation has not disclosed his release date or location, citing safety and security reasons. Ziegler told reporters however that the likelihood of Funston being released right back into Sacramento was “very high.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/25/2026 - 16:20

The post When Does the AI Bubble Burst? appeared first on CEPR.

As ordered reported by the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology on April 29, 2025

As ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources on February 4, 2026

Hezbollah Will Stay Out Of US-Iran Fight, But Only If Strikes 'Limited'

As the Trump White House weighs its options against Tehran, Hezbollah is signaling it may not be eager to open another front - at least not immediately, issuing a rare message which seeks to calm the mood in the region.

A senior Hezbollah official told AFP that the Iran-backed group would stay out of the fight if the United States conducts only "limited" strikes against Iran - a notable caveat, but which leaves the door open if escalation goes further.

The past several years of the Gaza war saw Hezbollah enter direct, sustained conflict with Israel - after which the Shia paramilitary group saw it's leadership decimated after a series of targeted IDF strikes on Beirut, as well as the pager blast operation.

And so at this moment, Hezbollah is very much on a back foot, and likely doesn't have the resources to enter into a new round of fighting with Israel along the country's northern border.

However, it's believed that Hezbollah - which has throughout it's history stretching back into the 1980s closely coordinated with Iran - still has tens of thousands of rockets it could unleash.

The Israeli government has meanwhile conveyed its own indirect warning, saying if Hezbollah joins any US-Iran war, Lebanon will pay a steep price. Potential Israeli retaliation would once again target civilian infrastructure, including Beirut’s airport - as has happened several times in the past.

"Over the past several months, IDF troops have been operating in southern Lebanon to dismantle terrorist infrastructure and prevent attempts by the Hezbollah terrorist organization to rearm," the Israeli military (IDF) said in a fresh statement this week.

Israeli forces targeted "weapons and terrorist infrastructure, including observation and firing positions in which anti-tank launchers were located," the IDF said.

A key part of Israel's strategy has long been to pressure the entire country of Lebanon and make life miserable for its population. But the Lebanese government and armed forces are limited in their options, given Hezbollah is by far the most well-armed faction, even far and above the national army.

BIG: Hezbollah will not intervene if the U.S. launches 'limited' strikes against Iran.

Source: Hezbollah official to AFP pic.twitter.com/1MSNL39R0Y

— Clash Report (@clashreport) February 25, 2026

But should a major US-Iran-Israel war erupt, there's a high chance that Lebanon would once again feel the disastrous after effects. Hezbollah militants would likely take shots at Israel, and the IDF would respond brutally, likely with more bombing raids over Beirut and especially the south.

On Wednesday, the United States rolled out with yet more sanctions on Iran, which at this point has become a monthly, if not weekly, exercise. Iran is widely seen as a key bankroller of Hezbollah's operations in the Levant region.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/25/2026 - 15:05

Goldman's Top DEI Exec Out Days After Bank Scraps Woke Board Policy

Days after the firm announced that they were scrapping DEI requirements for new board members, and six years after the death of George Floyd that ushered in institutionalized virtue-signaling, the bank's head of DEI is leaving. 

Megan Hogan, who's been at the firm 12 years, is taking her shtick to Morgan Stanley according to Business Insider, which Hogan confirmed via email, telling the outlet that Morgan Stanley had extended "an amazing opportunity" to her in talent development. 

She will report to Morgan's head of talent development, Susan Reid, the firm's global head of talent, and will begin in April. 

The move comes after Goldman's hard pivot away from DEI following Donald Trump's second term - retooling its diversity program, known as One Million Black Women (oh god), a multibillion-dollar commitment to invest in black businesswomen and nonprofit leaders. 

The bank also ended its requirement that companies it takes public have diverse boards, and stopped highlighting specific DEI targets in annual reports. 

Hogan is being replaced by Lauren Uranker, another managing director who has been with the firm for 14 years who will become the new sole head of talent, development, engagement and management, according to the report. Her mandate will be to concentrate on the transition to AI-supported work, team growth, and finding ways to keep top talent from fleeing. 

In early 2025, anti-DEI activist groups, which included the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR), the National Legal and Policy Center and the Heritage Foundation, also targeted the bank - submitting proposals challenging their business practices, and arguing that the banks' policies have left them and their shareholders vulnerable to costly legal challenges. 

So-called anti-woke groups have seized on the 2023 Supreme Court ruling that found race-based affirmative action in college-admissions processes is unconstitutional. Since then, the groups have challenged a range of diversity policies across Corporate America, both in court and through shareholder proposals. 

...

Trump signed an executive order on his first day in office to end DEI programs across the federal government. -WSJ

The NCPPR was also a co-plaintiff in a successful ruling in late 2024 against the SEC over Nasdaq's requirement that companies listed on its exchange meet DEI requirements. 

"This is a reflection of the changing legal environment and adapting to the reality of those legal shifts," a genderless spokesperson told Business Insider, adding that the firm stands by the benefit of "diverse perspectives and experiences." 

Indeed! 

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/25/2026 - 14:45

CME Halts All Metals, NatGas Markets Due To "Technical Issues"

At around 1300ET, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) halted trading of all metals and NatGas contracts (futures and options) due to 'technical issues'.

Additionally, all day orders and GTDs with today’s date will be cancelled.

All GTCs that have been acknowledged will remain working.

Since the halt, spot prices for gold have declined...

NatGas futures trading has re-opened (lower)...

CME says that Globex Metals futures and options markets will Pre-open at 13:31 Central Time and Open at 13:45 Central Time.

Developing...

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/25/2026 - 14:26

In lieu of publishing a report providing CBO's latest long-term budget outlook, the agency is publishing the data that it would have presented in that report.

Yen Tumbles After Takaichi Nominates Two Prominent Doves To The BOJ

It's not just Trump who is stacking his central bank with uberdoves.

After plunging yesterday following a Mainichi report that Japanese Prime Minister expressed concerns at more BOJ rate hikes, the yen has tumbled more, sending the USDJPY as high as 156.80 this morning, the highest since Feb 9, after the Takaichi administration announced two nominees to succeed the outgoing BoJ Policy Board members later this year, both of whom have a history of dovish commentary.

Toichiro Asada was presented as a successor to Asahi Noguchi (whose term ends on March 31st), and Ayano Sato has been presented as a successor Junko Nakagawa (whose terms ends on June 29th).

In both cases, the nominees’ comments over recent years had leaned towards a pro-reflation and pro-accommodative-policy stance, though neither has directly opined on the current stance of BoJ policy as of yet, according to Goldman's Stuart Jenkins. 

The outgoing Board members Noguchi and Nakagawa are both generally seen as being on the dovish end of the committee though, arguing for a more limited compositional shift in the Board’s policy preferences, though Goldman economists see the announcements as slightly lowering the odds of an H1 hike (versus their base case of July).

Policy speeches from the two nominees will be key to assessing their appetite or resistance to further hikes, but markets are likely also deriving some signal from the nominations as a ‘litmus test’ for PM Takaichi’s own policy preferences, with economists acknowledging the hurdle to policy tightening that government influence may present. 

Goldman adds that pricing around a more concerted exit from Japan’s real rate regime was a key ingredient to the Yen’s post-election rebound, but a dovish BoJ disappointment ahead remains an important risk to that, including if the Yen’s reaction itself lowers the BoJ’s urgency for hikes.

While the increased role of a fiscal risk premium across Japanese assets has driven a divergence between USD/JPY and US-Japan rate differentials (see first chart below), the pair has still exhibit a fairly high beta to front-end rate differentials (second chart below), which are increasingly coming from the Japan leg (third chart below).  

Charts of the Day: A rising Japan fiscal risk premium prior to the lower house election helps explain the recent disconnect between USDJPY and rate differentials.

USD/JPY’s beta to daily shifts in long-end rate differentials have become more muted over the past year relative to the post-YCC 2024 period – consistent with more frequent episodes of shifts in Japan’s fiscal risk premium that pushes on the Yen and JGBs in the same direction – while the pair has exhibited a higher sensitive to shifts in front-end rate differentials.

The BoJ’s hiking cycle has come alongside a gradual increase in implied Japan rates vol relative to the US, arguing for an outsized contribution from price action in Japan rates to the Yen.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/25/2026 - 13:40

Coordinated, industry-backed campaigns to weaken child labor protections continue to target state legislatures in 2026. Yesterday, the Indiana Senate passed a bill to completely eliminate requirements for businesses to document employment of minor workers, and it is expected to be sent to the governor after House and Senate versions are reconciled. The bill’s Senate sponsor, who owns a golf course that employs teen workers, also spearheaded 2024 legislation to weaken guardrails on work hours for the youngest teens and to lower the age at which teens can serve alcohol. Both of those bills were signed into law.

Child labor violations have been on the rise nationally and in Indiana, and fundamental federal child labor standards have recently come under threat. There is no reason to eliminate Indiana’s simple, easy-to-use system for documenting youth employment, except to make it easier for employers to violate child labor laws and harder for investigators to find out about violations.

Lawmakers in at least five other states have introduced bills to weaken child labor standards this year. Florida, Missouri, and Nebraska lawmakers have proposed allowing employers to pay minors less than the minimum wage, with the Nebraska bill recently being signed into law. Virginia and West Virginia lawmakers proposed bills to weaken hazardous work protections for minors who participate in work-based learning programs. Advocates in Virginia and West Virginia are working to amend both bills to limit their harm and ensure these programs do not come at the expense of youth education and safety.

Bill would eliminate employer registration system that replaced Indiana’s youth work permit process

In 2020, lawmakers eliminated Indiana’s youth work permit process and replaced it with the new Youth Employment System (YES), which requires certain employers of five or more minor workers to register key details about that employment in an online database, with penalties of up to $400 for each failure to register employment of a minor. Less than five years after they were implemented, lawmakers are now seeking to eliminate these requirements through House Bill (HB) 1302. If signed into law, there will no longer be any state oversight system in place for ensuring legal, age-appropriate work for minors or for state agencies to use in investigating suspected violations.

The legislation being considered is especially concerning because Indiana lawmakers have already made some of the country’s most extreme changes to child labor protections in recent years. Lawmakers made other substantial changes to Indiana child labor law in 2020, including eliminating rest breaks for minor workers and extending maximum weekly hours for 16- and 17-year-olds.

State systems for documenting youth employment are key to preventing child labor violations

Recent research shows that requiring the documentation of youth employment—like youth work permits—play an important role in preventing child labor violations, but Indiana got rid of work permits in 2020, and now they are hoping to get rid of the system that replaced them. In an analysis of federal child labor violations between 2008 and 2020, states with work permit mandates had 13.3% fewer violation cases and 31.8% fewer minors involved in these violations. That’s because youth work permits ensure employers know the law and create a paper trail to aid in enforcement when state investigators suspect violations. According to the new study, requiring that work permits clearly state permitted working hours reduces the number of minors involved in violations by 24.0%.

Often, employers that violate mandated documentation requirements are also violating other child labor standards. For example, a recent audit of a major Burger King franchisee in Wisconsin found over 1,600 child labor violations affecting nearly 1,400 young workers, the largest in the state’s history. In addition to employing minors without a work permit, violations included failing to provide mandated rest breaks, employing minors beyond permissible working hours, and failing to pay overtime.

Sadly, lawmakers’ desire to eliminate the YES system may be precisely because the system has been working as intended. Last year, the Indiana DOL assessed over $250,000 in penalties on employers that failed to register youth employment. Indiana’s youth employment registration system allowed investigators to identify employers out of compliance with the registration law and may have played a role in deterring future, more serious violations.

As violations increase, lawmakers should seek to strengthen—not weaken—youth employment standards

Child labor violations have risen significantly in recent years across the U.S. and in Indiana, where a 2025 IndyStar analysis found an uptick in violations in recent years, particularly driven by instances of illegal hazardous child labor and illegal employment of children under age 14. According to state fiscal analysts who assessed HB 1302’s impact, the change “will likely reduce the efficiency of on-site employer inspections for compliance with child labor laws.” In other words, the legislature’s own analysts acknowledge that this bill will make it harder to protect Indiana children from illegal and potentially dangerous, exploitative, and abusive employment conditions.

There is no rationale for eliminating basic documentation requirements that prevent child labor violations and aid in enforcement, except to make it easier for unscrupulous employers to get away with breaking the laws that keep kids safe on the job. Coming on the heels of multiple bills that weakened Indiana’s child labor standards in the past few years, HB 1302 represents another shameful step backward for the state. But it is not too late for Indiana to reverse course. If the bill is sent to the governor, Indiana Governor Mike Braun can break with his party to veto the bill, just like Ohio Republican Governor Mike DeWine did when he vetoed a bill to extend working hours for minors late last year. At a time when federal child labor standards are under threat, state lawmakers have an opportunity and responsibility to resist efforts to weaken child labor protections and, instead, consider any of the numerous, proven options to strengthen them.

Subpar 5Y Auction Sees Biggest Tail Since July 2025, Bid to Cover Slides

After yesterday's 2 Year auction, moments ago the Treasury sold its second coupon for the week when it auctioned off $70BN in 5 Year paper in a rather lackluster auction. 

The auction priced at a high yield of 3.615%, down from 3.823% a month ago, and the lowest since November; it also tailed the When Issued 3.608% by 0.7bps, the biggest tail since last July.

The bid to cover was ugly, dropping to 2.32, down from 2.34 and the lowest since July 2025.

The internals were fractionally better, with foreign demand clearly there as Indirects took down 62.5%, up from 60.7% and the highest since October. And with Directs awarded 24.7%, down from 28.5% and the lowest since October, Dealers were left holding 12.8%, up from 10.8% last month and above the recent average of 10.1%.

Overall, this was a subpar auction, with a surprisingly big tail and sliding bid to cover, yet it could have been far worse if foreign bidders did not show up. Luckily, they did, and prevented a much worse outcome.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/25/2026 - 13:20

Schumpeter Didn't Have This Level Of Destruction In Mind

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The tendency for the rate of things to fall

Markets are trying to get past a report on how devastating AI could be for employment. There are push-backs: it ignores resource constraints and Schumpeterian creative destruction, and echoes Marx’s Tendency for the Rate of Profits to Fall. Yet Anthropic just released desk-top plug-ins plugins aimed at HR, design, engineering, ops, financial analysis, investment banking, equity research, private equity, and wealth management, e.g., it can do all the analysis in a spreadsheet, write the report on it, and make the presentation. It seems illogical this won’t see a surge in unemployment even if AI still makes key errors that require experience to spot – the youngest cohort of workers will miss out, meaning they don’t get the experience needed to be useful later.

That’s with existing resources; Schumpeter didn’t have that level of destruction in mind for creatives; and while Marx was wrong, the period post the release of Das Kapital wasn’t one of social stability. Even Bank of England Chief Economist Pill just told Parliament, “My daughter is struggling to find work too,” though he blamed Labour’s taxes on business. The Fed’s Bostic yesterday said he didn’t think the AI threat required rate cuts as a solution even though they have an inflation AND employment mandate. Then again, Bloomberg reports the AI memory shortage may add up to 0.2 percentage points to US CPI, underlining the resource constraint view.

If employment may have a tendency to fall, sadly so do bombs. Russia threatened the UK and France with nuclear strikes after alleging the pair were trying to get a nuclear weapon or dirty bomb to Ukraine: the financial media didn’t notice. It warned of plots to destroy gas pipelines through the Black Sea, following that of the Druzhba oil pipeline to Slovakia this week, which the financial media also didn’t notice. Notably, the US also warned Ukraine not to blow Russian assets up that threaten its economic interests there. Elsewhere, Europe’s VDL insisted the EU would get round Hungary’s veto to deliver Ukraine’s €90bn loan, and an EU Commissioner stressed they were looking at ‘non-standard’ tactics to get Ukraine in faster. Also add Iceland and Montenegro, and won’t consensus EU decision making be harder to achieve, and Russia frictions rise?

In the Middle East, 11 US F-22s are now on the ground in Israel, as Reuters reports Iran is close to buying Chinese supersonic anti-ship missiles. Embassies are sending warnings to their citizens around the region; Turkey is preparing to prevent an Iranian refugee surge at its border. Yet Indian PM Modi will address the Knesset today at 4:30PM local time to signal a strategic trade, tech, and defence alliance (relatedly, Somaliland’s president announced he will make his first official Israel visit in March). It remains to be seen when this war might begin --today, or after market close Friday?-- or what then happens, but such an outcome looks more likely than a sudden Peace For Our Time deal. Either way, the impact on energy prices will be notable – either sharply up or sharply down.

In Asia, supplies of key goods have a tendency to fall: China just cut off 20 major Japanese firms off from critical minerals over “remilitarisation” – or, to put it another way, the rapid rearmament the US is pushing allies to embrace. Rather than confront the US directly ahead of a Xi-Trump summit, Beijing --angry with Takaichi-- is again testing US resolve via that channel. Taiwan’s ruling and opposition parties also just agreed to advance President Lai's $40bn special defence budget after months of deadlock: that’s going to be another pressure point given the pledged $20bn of US arms sales to it. How much room does the US have to placate China without showing its allies that it doesn’t stand behind them?

In related geoeconomics, tensions don’t have a tendency to fall: US officials warn of “deep distrust” even as they are trying to stabilize China ties ahead of that key summit. Relatedly, Bloomberg reports a $112bn gap between what China claims it’s exporting to the US and what the US says it’s buying – almost all of it is seen as due to tariff evasion.

German Chancellor Merz is in Beijing seeking “reliable and fair partnership” and to urge China to curb “unfair trade practices” amid his economy’s deindustrialisation. However, the heuristic shows net importers (as Germany now is vs China) only have the ability to pressure net exporters with the threat of tariffs. Berlin, unlike France, is opposed to them – so, what instead?

Europe is closing in on a Mexico trade deal… as the latter grapples with cartel violence and is perhaps months from being locked into a new North American trade deal with a de facto common external tariff directed by the US, as we already see with Mexican tariffs on Asian imports. Similar to the EU-Mercosur deal Europe hasn’t yet agreed to, there is an underlying clash with the realpolitik of the Donroe Doctrine ahead.

The US is eyeing Pentagon AI for its new critical minerals trade bloc’s pricing. It remains to be seen how this will work given the noted disconnect between resource availability and AI, but watch this space… and “because markets” it isn’t. Neither is China’s soon-to-be-announced new energy strategy, which will place its own security at the heart of all future development.

On the other hand, US Secretary of War Hegseth is at war with Anthropic and has given it an ultimatum. Reportedly, he has told the firm that he could not just strip it from the US defense sector if it won’t give him full access, but also label it a supply-chain risk, like Chinese firms, or invoke the Defence Production Act to force it to work with the Pentagon. For anyone but the “because markets” crowd, this kind of outcome was always obvious: new technology has historically always been centred on the military first or been driven by it.

Meanwhile, in Australia CPI doesn’t have a tendency to fall, despite pre-AI RBA models saying it would. In January, seasonally adjusted CPI was 0.5% m-o-m and remained unchanged at 3.8% y-o-y, with the largest contributors being housing (6.8%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.1%) and recreation and culture (3.7%). Trimmed mean inflation was 3.4% y-o-y, up from 3.3%. That almost certainly locks in a 25bps rate hike in May after the next round of quarterly CPI data are out. (And note Australia doesn’t have any tariffs: the US, with its controversial tariffs, has headline CPI of 2.4%. What do pre-AI economic models and modellers have to say about that?)

In politics, there are numerous headlines pointing to our volatile times, e.g., the Australian PM being evacuated from his Canberra residence for security. Moreover, in the US State of the Union President Trump: reiterated an aspiration to replace income tax with tariff revenue; proposed shifting subsidies from health insurers to consumers; underlined the prices of US prescription medicines are lowered by increasing the prices in other economies; stated AI datacentres will pay separate, higher electricity prices; flagged opening up the retirement scheme available to federal workers to the private sector; argued to prevent members of Congress from profiting from inside information (“Did Nancy Pelosi stand up if she’s here?”); announced a new War on Fraud under VP Vance; pushed the SAVE America Act which enforces proof of ID to vote; and claimed that 35 million people told him that the Prime Minister of Pakistan would have died in a war with India if not for his involvement. We didn’t get anything on aliens (I’m not joking).

However, Trump underlined that while he prefers diplomacy, Iran is continuing with its “sinister plans” and is refusing to say, “We will never have a nuclear weapon” - and he will never allow them to have one. That sounds like certain headlines may fall on market screens in the near future even if that rhetorical --and literal-- bomb wasn’t dropped at the end of the SoTU, as some had thought could complete its political theatre.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/25/2026 - 13:20

"Do You See What Happens Larry...": Summers Out At Harvard After Epstein Scandal

Who could have seen this coming?

Aug 2019: Clinton Treasury Secretary Larry Summers Rode On Epstein's 'Lolita Express'

The former Harvard President and Clinton-era Treasury Secretary has been cited four times on the flight logs of Jeffrey Epstein's 'Lolita Express'. During his first trip, he was still working in the Clinton administration. And during his most recent - in 2005 - he and his wife accompanied Epstein to Epstein's private island just days after their wedding.

During his first trip on Sept. 19, 1998, (while he was Treasury Secretary) Summers flew from the airport in Aspen, Colo. to Dulles international.

His second trip didn't take place until April 15, 2004, when Summers flew from JFK to Bedford, Mass., an airport not far from Harvard, where he was president of the university at the time.

On his third trip, Summers flew from Bedford to White Plains for reasons that are unclear.

And during his fourth trip, Larry and Lisa Summers flew from Bedford to Epstein’s Island, and were accompanied by Epstein’s close confidant and alleged Madam Ghislaine Maxwell.

...and here, here, and here...

All of which led to the former Harvard President Larry Summers resigning from his academic and faculty appointments at Harvard at the end of the academic year, relinquishing his University Professorship - Harvard’s highest faculty distinction - and remaining on leave until that time, a Harvard spokesperson confirmed to The Crimson.

The Crimson reports that Summers also resigned Wednesday from his role as co-director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at the Harvard Kennedy School, a position he has held since 2011, according to the spokesperson. He will not teach or take on new advisees.

The resignation marks an extraordinary unraveling for Summers, long one of the most influential figures in American economics. His career spanned prize-winning research, service as United States Treasury Secretary, and the presidency of Harvard.

In a statement to The Crimson, Summers wrote that the decision to leave was “difficult” and that he remained “grateful to the thousands of students and colleagues I have been privileged to teach and work with since coming to Harvard as a graduate student 50 years ago.”

Summers, who has been on leave since November, appeared hundreds of times in newly released Epstein files.

The correspondence between Summers and Epstein - which tallies thousands of emails and phone calls - revealed an intimacy that far exceeded the bounds of a professional relationship. 

In the emails, Summers appears to ask Epstein for advice on pursuing a romantic relationship with a woman that he describes as a mentee.

In one message from 2018, Epstein refers to himself as Summers’ “wingman”.

Furthermore, in late December, a second tranche of Epstein-related records released by the Justice Department revealed that Summers had been designated as a successor executor in a 2014 draft of Epstein’s will, positioning him to oversee the financier’s estate if the primary executors were unable to serve. 

Quoting from The Big Lebowski, we comment that "you see what happens Larry..." when you correspond with a convicted pedophile.

Who's next?

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/25/2026 - 13:00

Ethereum Foundation Starts Staking ETH As Client Diversity Concerns Persist

Authored by Christina Comben via CoinTelegraph.com,

The Ethereum Foundation has begun staking part of its treasury, turning one of Ethereum’s most influential entities into a direct economic participant in network consensus.

According to a Tuesday post on X, the foundation deposited 2,016 Ether and plans to stake about 70,000 in total, with all rewards flowing back into its treasury to fund protocol research and development, ecosystem development and grants.

​In its announcement, the foundation stressed that new validators were being operated using open-source infrastructure, Dirk and Vouch, originally developed by Attestant and now part of Bitwise’s institutional staking stack. 

Dirk acts as a distributed signer, while Vouch serves as a validator client, allowing keys and operations to be split across multiple jurisdictions and operators rather than concentrated in a single machine or provider. 

The Ethereum Foundation has started staking its ETH. Source: Ethereum Foundation

Chris Berry, head of Ethereum onchain engineering at Bitwise Onchain Solutions, told Cointelegraph that Vouch and Dirk were “built with the mindset to fulfill the duties of an honest validator in the safest way possible,” with an emphasis on client diversity, non-custodial control and compliance.

Avoiding single points of failure

According to the foundation, this setup was designed to avoid a “single point of failure” and to reflect best practices for secure, non-custodial staking.

Crucially, the Ethereum Foundation says its configuration “employs minority clients” alongside a mix of hosted infrastructure and self-managed hardware in several jurisdictions. 

For Berry, those properties “really align with the core values of Ethereum,” and the EF’s adoption shows that the team is “confident in the implementation and stewardship of the software.”

The choice is also significant in the context of long-running concerns that Ethereum’s client ecosystem and validator set could become overly dependent on a handful of dominant implementations and centralized cloud providers. 

By explicitly opting for a minority client-heavy stack, the foundation appears to be using its own staking footprint to model what it wants large institutional validators to do.

Ethereum staking concentration concerns  

The move comes as Ethereum staking continues to grow and professionalize. Around 30% of the ETH supply is now staked, with liquid staking protocols and large custodians, such as Lido and Coinbase, still controlling a sizable share of validators and effective voting power. 

This has raised recurring questions about how much decentralization Ethereum can retain as more capital flows into highly optimized, institution-run staking operations.

Berry stressed that Ethereum had “always prioritized decentralization and security” at a protocol level, and that there were “many mechanisms” to ensure that Ethereum would “remain secure if large amounts of stake want to leave or do not perform their duties appropriately.”

He added that institutional staking was “very competitive,” and that allocators were increasingly focused on properties such as client diversity, infrastructure resilience and validator performance.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/25/2026 - 12:45

Trump To Iran: War Can Be Averted If It Says "Those Secret Words"

Among the most important foreign policy statements of President Trump's during his annual State of the Union address to a joint session of the Senate and House of Representatives Tuesday night came in discussing his Iran red lines.

"We are in negotiations with them. They want to make a deal, but we haven't heard those secret words: 'We will never have a nuclear weapon.'" This 'challenge' underscores that at this point it may not matter at all what Iran actually says or does, as Washington is on the war path. See the words of Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi issued before Trump's speech - he laid out precisely this pledge using the "secret words" several hours before the world knew what Trump would say... 

2/4 Our fundamental convictions are crystal clear: Iran will under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon; neither will we Iranians ever forgo our right to harness the dividends of peaceful nuclear technology for our people.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) February 24, 2026

The top Iranian diplomat had declared that it was "crystal clear" that "Iran will under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon. Araghchi followed with: "We have a historic opportunity to strike an unprecedented agreement that addresses mutual concerns and achieves mutual interests. A deal is within reach, but only if diplomacy is given priority," in the statement on X.

Trump during his speech also agreed that his "preference" is "to solve this problem through diplomacy, but one thing is certain: I will never allow the world’s number one sponsor of terror, which they are by far, to have a nuclear weapon."

Iran has after the fact slammed Trump's statements as false, stressing that it has on several occasions very clearly pledged to never purse a bomb. Some pundits are saying Trump's words were hyperbolic to express a point - that in reality it must be more than just a verbal pledge, as Washington is demanding a comprehensive legal commitment to not build a bomb.

"Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons."

--JCPOA (Preamble and General Provisions, para. iii)

Trump Tuesday night reiterated that Iran's nuclear program had been 'obliterated' - and so it presents the contradiction of the US wanting to once again wipe out a nuclear program which the administration says is actually no longer there.

"We wiped it out and they want to start all over again," Trump said in the address. "And they’re at this moment again pursuing their sinister ambitions."

Of the June 2025 US and Israeli attacks on nuclear sites, Trump continued "they were warned to make no future attempts to rebuild their weapons program, in particular, nuclear weapons – yet they continue."

Trump asks of Iran that it must utter the 'secret words'...

PRESIDENT TRUMP on IRAN: My preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy, but one thing is certain: I will NEVER allow the world’s number one sponsor of terror to have a nuclear weapon.

We have to be strong. It’s called peace through strength. pic.twitter.com/0CPKHtvQDt

— Department of State (@StateDept) February 25, 2026

While Iranian officials have this week said they're willing to do anything for a deal, there's also a creeping fear in Tehran that if they cede too much, the country's enemies will smell blood in the water and attack anyway. Iranian leadership fears it's in a lose-lose situation, and so if attack - however 'limited' a strike might be - would feel the need to hit back as hard as possible. This could be a recipe for stumbling into all-out war.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/25/2026 - 12:25

One In Five California Home Sales Canceled Due To Unaffordable Insurance

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Ponder a $44,000 insurance bill. This does not count as inflation in the CPI.

Dysfunction in California’s Insurance Market

The Wall Street Journal reports A $44,000 Bill Shows the Dysfunction in California’s Home-Insurance Market

Glenn and Lorraine Crawford paid about $500 a month to insure their home in Agoura Hills northwest of Los Angeles when they bought it in 2012.

The Crawfords say they have little alternative but to pay the bill that arrived last month, which, at more than $44,000 a year, is almost as much as their mortgage bill. The only other insurer willing to cover their home, Lloyd’s of London, quoted them $80,000 a year.

More than a year after infernos tore through Los Angeles County, millions of Californians like the Crawfords are suffering through a home-insurance crisis that has rolled on for years with eye-watering rate increases, canceled policies and rejected claims.

Two of the biggest insurers, State Farm and Allstate, aren’t selling to new customers in the state, despite getting double-digit rate increases approved for their existing policyholders. A third, Farmers Insurance, has committed to cover more homes in fire-prone areas, but only a fraction compared with the drop in its overall number of policies since the crisis began.

The insurance dysfunction has spread to California’s housing market, the country’s biggest and most expensive, with nearly one-in-five real-estate agents reporting a canceled sale last year because of clients unable to find affordable insurance, according to a survey by the trade body California Association of Realtors.

The roots of California’s insurance crisis go back years. The state’s tough rate caps kept premiums low. But home insurers eventually balked, saying they couldn’t charge enough to cover rising wildfire and other losses, made worse by climate change and development. Insurers didn’t renew tens of thousands of policies, especially in fire-prone areas.

California’s uphill battle to draw insurers back could prove a template—or cautionary tale—for other disaster-prone states. New rules implemented last year, for instance, require home-insurers in the state to pledge to sell new policies in high-risk wildfire zones, in return for allowing them to charge higher rates.

As part of a request for a 6.99% rate increase, Farmers, the second-biggest home-insurer in the state, pledged to add at least 5,596 policies in high-risk areas by September 2028. That is less than a 10th of the 59,806 reduction in Farmers’ total number of California home-insurance policies in the previous two years, according to a Consumer Watchdog analysis.

Others continue to shun the state despite winning big concessions. California regulators approved a 34% rate increase for Allstate in 2024. Yet it has no “growth aspirations” in California home insurance, Chief Executive Tom Wilson said last year, adding that it would take time to fix the market. A spokesman said that remains Allstate’s position.

The disaster also almost felled California’s biggest home insurer, State Farm General. Lara last year backed an emergency 17% rate increase to keep the State Farm subsidiary afloat. “We’re on the Titanic, and we see the iceberg,” one of Lara’s lawyers told a hearing last year.

Truflation BS

Meanwhile, Truflation reports an absolutely absurd year-over-over year inflation rate of 0.87 percent.

@truflation pic.twitter.com/1vrtJkWMFJ

— Randy Woodward (@TheBondFreak) February 18, 2026

Faster Nonsense

Truflation is nothing but more timely nonsense. Like the BLS and BEA, Truflation does not factor in homeowner’s insurance or property taxes.

Truflation’s measure of rent are ridiculous. Truflation has too high a weight on new leases rather than existing leases. Existing leases are close to 90 percent of the market.

While the price of new leases is falling in some areas, existing leases are moving much slower.

Neither the BLS nor BEA weigh food properly. I strongly suspect Truflation doesn’t either.

I don’t doubt that Truflation has better and more timely collection methods than the BLS, but like the rest of the inflation models, it’s nonsense.

Economists don’t understand why people are upset. The answer is obvious. When you exclude real prices people pay, all you are offering is garbage.

We don’t need better measures of nonsense, we need better measures of reality, and Truflation sure isn’t it.

Food at Home vs Away

Note the BLS food weights for home vs away are reversed from where people actually spend their money.

For more details, please consider Where Do You Spend Money on Food? How Screwed Up Are the BLS Weights?

Does the BLS match your budget?

Homeowners Insurance

On August 11, 2025, I asked Is Homeowners Insurance Understated in the CPI? Shop Around!

Our Insurance went up by $2,000. Then another $2,000. Here’s our story.

What’s the Insurance Weight?

The BLS says shelter is 35.473 of the CPI. Of that, Tenants’ and household insurance is allegedly 0.414 percent.

Sound right?

If you own a home, what percent of your income is spent on your homeowners’ insurance?

Under 1/2 of 1 percent?

ON January 14, I noted The Fed Has Missed Its Inflation Target on Ten Different Measures

The Atlanta Fed tracks various inflation targets. Let’s have a look.

Does that match your experience or does Truflation?

And none of the measures include homeowners insurance. It’s all nonsense, yet economists believe it.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/25/2026 - 12:05

On Gold, Oil, & Uranium

LIVE NOW:

https://t.co/vkouSL7UhD

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 25, 2026

Billionaire natural resources investor Rick Rule, legendary short-seller Bill Fleckenstein, and veteran oil trader Erik Townsend join ZeroHedge this evening at 7PM ET to give their outlooks on three key commodities sectors: Gold, Oil, and Uranium.

Gold and silver have, of course, exploded in price over the last 52 weeks with gold’s price almost doubling and reaching a high of over $5500.

Silver’s price more than tripled at one point and now sits ($87.50) just under 3X where it sat in February of last year ($32.93).

Given the fast and intense rise, Rule recently reduced his silver position though remains long mining stocks.

Time to Rotate into Oil?

Oil on the other hand is down YoY, making it perhaps the most attractive commodity due to it being relatively cheap.

Oil stocks are Rule’s number one investment position due to what he says is decades of massive underinvestment, a thesis he will expand upon this evening.

Lastly, uranium mining stocks have seen a meteoric rise rivaling that of gold stock, broadly doubling with some names like Energy Fuels seeing an almost 400% increase YoY.

Townsend will speak to the emerging technology in the nuclear energy space and Rule will speak to the long-term bull case and whether the mining stocks have flown too high too fast.

We encourage commodity investors to tune in.

Visit the ZeroHedge homepage at 7pm ET tonight to watch live and commercial-free.

Or follow our Spotify and YouTube to watch after it airs.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/25/2026 - 11:45