Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Rates Trickle to Another Higher LowMortgage rates are as high as they've been on almost any other day this month. You'd have to go back to August 1st to see anything higher. On the other hand, rates are still noticeably lower than almost any other day of the past 10 months. It's really only the past 2 weeks that have been any better and the gap between recent highs and lows is very small. [30 year fixed 6.59%]Tuesday:
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic increased 0.7% in July compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. There have been a number of stories about the ways Trump has hurt the people who supported him in November 2024 and his declining approval among two groups who moved toward him in the last election –Hispanics and young men. He does not seem to have suffered much erosion in rural populations generally despite his […]
The post Buyers Regret? appeared first on Angry Bear.
A Cybertruck passed us this morning on the way back from the south shore of Rhode Island. My wife remarked that it looked like a rolling dumpster. I’ve certainly never understood the appeal. Apparently, my aesthetic is shared. “Once one of the world’s most-hyped vehicles, sales and production numbers for Tesla’s Cybertruck have fallen sharply. […]
The post Alas, Cybertruck, we hardly knew ye appeared first on Angry Bear.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence may already look like a bubble., according to CNBC.
“Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes. Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes,” he told reporters last week. “When bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth.”
Altman compared the surge in AI spending to the dot-com boom of the 1990s, when hype drove valuations before the Nasdaq lost nearly 80% of its value.
He isn’t alone. Alibaba co-founder Joe Tsai, Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio, and Apollo Global Management economist Torsten Slok have issued similar warnings. Slok recently argued the AI boom could be “bigger than the internet bubble,” with today’s market leaders more overvalued than those in the 1990s.
Not all analysts agree. Ray Wang of Futurum Group said Monday that “from the perspective of broader investment in AI and semiconductors... I don’t see it as a bubble. The fundamentals across the supply chain remain strong.” Still, he noted “an increasing amount of speculative capital” chasing weaker companies.
CNBC writes that investor concern has grown alongside rising competition. Earlier this year, Chinese start-up DeepSeek claimed to train a cutting-edge model for under $6 million, far below the billions spent by U.S. giants like OpenAI—though those claims remain disputed.
Altman, meanwhile, has acknowledged challenges at OpenAI. He told CNBC the company is on track for $20 billion in annual recurring revenue but remains unprofitable. The rollout of its GPT-5 model drew mixed reviews, forcing OpenAI to restore GPT-4 access for paying users.
He has also begun questioning whether “artificial general intelligence” remains a useful term, saying it may be losing relevance despite earlier predictions it could arrive in the “reasonably close-ish future.”
Investor faith, however, hasn’t wavered. OpenAI is preparing a $6 billion stock sale valuing the firm at roughly $500 billion, just months after raising $40 billion at a $300 billion valuation—the largest private tech round ever.
Looking ahead, Altman said OpenAI could spend “trillions of dollars” on data centers, hinted at expansion into consumer hardware and brain-computer interfaces, and even suggested buying Chrome if regulators forced Google to sell.
Asked if he’d still be OpenAI’s CEO in three years, he replied: “I mean, maybe an AI is in three years. That’s a long time.”
Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 13:05OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence may already look like a bubble., according to CNBC.
“Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes. Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes,” he told reporters last week. “When bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth.”
Altman compared the surge in AI spending to the dot-com boom of the 1990s, when hype drove valuations before the Nasdaq lost nearly 80% of its value.
He isn’t alone. Alibaba co-founder Joe Tsai, Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio, and Apollo Global Management economist Torsten Slok have issued similar warnings. Slok recently argued the AI boom could be “bigger than the internet bubble,” with today’s market leaders more overvalued than those in the 1990s.
Not all analysts agree. Ray Wang of Futurum Group said Monday that “from the perspective of broader investment in AI and semiconductors... I don’t see it as a bubble. The fundamentals across the supply chain remain strong.” Still, he noted “an increasing amount of speculative capital” chasing weaker companies.
CNBC writes that investor concern has grown alongside rising competition. Earlier this year, Chinese start-up DeepSeek claimed to train a cutting-edge model for under $6 million, far below the billions spent by U.S. giants like OpenAI—though those claims remain disputed.
Altman, meanwhile, has acknowledged challenges at OpenAI. He told CNBC the company is on track for $20 billion in annual recurring revenue but remains unprofitable. The rollout of its GPT-5 model drew mixed reviews, forcing OpenAI to restore GPT-4 access for paying users.
He has also begun questioning whether “artificial general intelligence” remains a useful term, saying it may be losing relevance despite earlier predictions it could arrive in the “reasonably close-ish future.”
Investor faith, however, hasn’t wavered. OpenAI is preparing a $6 billion stock sale valuing the firm at roughly $500 billion, just months after raising $40 billion at a $300 billion valuation—the largest private tech round ever.
Looking ahead, Altman said OpenAI could spend “trillions of dollars” on data centers, hinted at expansion into consumer hardware and brain-computer interfaces, and even suggested buying Chrome if regulators forced Google to sell.
Asked if he’d still be OpenAI’s CEO in three years, he replied: “I mean, maybe an AI is in three years. That’s a long time.”
Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 13:05Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The Treasury Department on Friday unveiled guidance that tightens the criteria for wind and solar energy projects to receive federal tax credits.
Giant wind turbines are powered by strong winds in front of solar panels in Palm Springs, Calif., on March 27, 2013. Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
The guidance follows President Donald Trump’s July 7 executive order directing the department to enforce the One Big Beautiful Bill Act he signed into law on July 4, which effectively ends renewable energy tax credits for projects that have not begun construction.
The new rules narrow down the definition of projects considered to have begun construction, replacing the previous rule that allowed developers to qualify after incurring 5 percent of the project costs.
It stated that the “Five Percent Safe Harbor” is no longer available for determining “whether a wind or solar facility has met the beginning of construction deadline and, thus, is not subject to the credit termination date.” However, small projects below 1.5 megawatts could still be considered for the provision.
Developers will need to prove they started “physical work of a significant nature” to establish that solar or wind projects have begun construction, and those projects must be continuous, according to the guidance.
“Provided that physical work performed is of a significant nature, there is no fixed minimum amount of work or monetary or percentage threshold required to satisfy the Physical Work Test,” it stated.
The newly released guidance counts activities such as setting anchor bolts into the ground, excavating land, and pouring concrete pads of the foundation as qualified work in progress.
Preliminary activities such as mapping, clearing a site, test drilling, or excavating to change the contour of the land are not considered as having begun construction, according to the updated rules.
It also stated that solar or wind facilities must be operational by the end of the fourth calendar year after construction begins, in order to fully qualify under the new rules.
The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) criticized the guidance as a “blatant rejection” of congressional approval and said that it threatens small businesses supporting the U.S. clean energy sector.
“American families and businesses will pay more for electricity as a result of this action, and China will continue to outpace us in the race for electricity to power AI,” SEIA CEO Abigail Ross Hopper said in a statement.
Clean Energy Buyers Association CEO Rich Powell said the guidance provides the business community with certainty “by honoring existing contracts” while ensuring proper use of taxpayer money.
“Meeting these new standards will be challenging, but we are confident that American energy buyers will help developers rise to the challenge of delivering all sources of power critical to the continued growth of the U.S. economy,” Powell stated.
The executive order to end federal subsidies for wind and solar energy projects cited concerns over the reliability of these energy sources and dependence on foreign-controlled supply chains.
In his order, Trump stated that reliance on “so-called ‘green’ subsidies” poses a national security risk by making the United States dependent on supply chains controlled by foreign adversaries.
“Ending the massive cost of taxpayer handouts to unreliable energy sources is vital to energy dominance, national security, economic growth, and the fiscal health of the nation,” the order stated.
Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 12:45Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The Treasury Department on Friday unveiled guidance that tightens the criteria for wind and solar energy projects to receive federal tax credits.
Giant wind turbines are powered by strong winds in front of solar panels in Palm Springs, Calif., on March 27, 2013. Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
The guidance follows President Donald Trump’s July 7 executive order directing the department to enforce the One Big Beautiful Bill Act he signed into law on July 4, which effectively ends renewable energy tax credits for projects that have not begun construction.
The new rules narrow down the definition of projects considered to have begun construction, replacing the previous rule that allowed developers to qualify after incurring 5 percent of the project costs.
It stated that the “Five Percent Safe Harbor” is no longer available for determining “whether a wind or solar facility has met the beginning of construction deadline and, thus, is not subject to the credit termination date.” However, small projects below 1.5 megawatts could still be considered for the provision.
Developers will need to prove they started “physical work of a significant nature” to establish that solar or wind projects have begun construction, and those projects must be continuous, according to the guidance.
“Provided that physical work performed is of a significant nature, there is no fixed minimum amount of work or monetary or percentage threshold required to satisfy the Physical Work Test,” it stated.
The newly released guidance counts activities such as setting anchor bolts into the ground, excavating land, and pouring concrete pads of the foundation as qualified work in progress.
Preliminary activities such as mapping, clearing a site, test drilling, or excavating to change the contour of the land are not considered as having begun construction, according to the updated rules.
It also stated that solar or wind facilities must be operational by the end of the fourth calendar year after construction begins, in order to fully qualify under the new rules.
The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) criticized the guidance as a “blatant rejection” of congressional approval and said that it threatens small businesses supporting the U.S. clean energy sector.
“American families and businesses will pay more for electricity as a result of this action, and China will continue to outpace us in the race for electricity to power AI,” SEIA CEO Abigail Ross Hopper said in a statement.
Clean Energy Buyers Association CEO Rich Powell said the guidance provides the business community with certainty “by honoring existing contracts” while ensuring proper use of taxpayer money.
“Meeting these new standards will be challenging, but we are confident that American energy buyers will help developers rise to the challenge of delivering all sources of power critical to the continued growth of the U.S. economy,” Powell stated.
The executive order to end federal subsidies for wind and solar energy projects cited concerns over the reliability of these energy sources and dependence on foreign-controlled supply chains.
In his order, Trump stated that reliance on “so-called ‘green’ subsidies” poses a national security risk by making the United States dependent on supply chains controlled by foreign adversaries.
“Ending the massive cost of taxpayer handouts to unreliable energy sources is vital to energy dominance, national security, economic growth, and the fiscal health of the nation,” the order stated.
Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 12:45– by New Deal democrat Forecasting has always been hard, and moreso since the supply chain issues of 2021-22 made reading the interest rate signals from the long leading indicators muddled. But at least the short leading indicators were intact. But now we have the additional wrench in the works in the form of a mafia-style […]
The post The muddied historical picture of PPI vs. CPI appeared first on Angry Bear.
First, here are some comments from the Houston Association of REALTORS®: HOUSTON HOME PRICES EASE IN JULY AS SUPPLY HITS RECORD HIGHThere is much more in the article.According to the Houston Association of Realtors' July 2025 Housing Market Update, single-family home sales increased 9.2 percent year-over-year. A total of 8,300 homes were sold compared to 7,601 last year, when Hurricane Beryl temporarily halted market activity for several days.Active listings hit an all-time high in Houston leading to some price declines. This is something we are seeing everywhere inventory has increased sharply. Note that sales were partially up year-over-year in Houston due to the hurricane depressing sales last year.
July marked the largest year-over-year decline in home prices since 2023. The median price was down 3.1 percent to $339,000. The average price was $434,664, which is 1.9 percent below last year’s level.
Active listings reached an all-time high in July, exceeding 40,000 available homes in the Houston area. This represents a 38.2 percent increase from the same time last year.
emphasis added
...
In July, sales in these markets were down 0.6% YoY. Last month, in June, these same markets were up 4.3% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
Important: There were the same number of working days in July 2025 (22) as in July 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the NSA data.
...
More local markets to come!
President Trump on Monday issued a scorching message aimed at Hamas as well as the growing internationall and domestic critics of America's Israel policy. He called for the total destruction of Hamas and the return of the hostages, in that order.
"The sooner this takes place, the better the chances of success will be," he wrote on Truth Social. This is one of the clearest 'greenlights' for Netanyahu's expanded Gaza operations to date, and it cleary backs his government's pursuit of a military solution, as opposed to attempting to renew or prioritize negotiations for a hostage exchange.
In bizarre language which sounds more like an enthusiastic gambler preparing to enter the casino, Trump declared after reviewing his recent Middle East 'accomplishments': "Play to WIN, or don't play at all!"
This comes on the heels of a weekend which saw more mass anti-Netanyahu protests across Israeli cities, especially in Tel Aviv. Also, President Trump held a phone call with PM Netanyahu on Sunday.
Netanyahu's office said they "discussed Israel's plans to take control of the remaining Hamas strongholds in Gaza in order to bring an end to the war through the release of the hostages and the defeat of Hamas."
Trump in a follow-up interview with Axios said of the terror group, "they can't stay there" - and explained: "I have one thing to say: remember October 7, remember October 7."
Netananyahu told a Sunday press briefing that he has requested the Israel Defense Forces to present plans for "taking over" Gaza City.
There are reports saying the Israeli government is planning to 'move' Palestinian civilians into massive tent cities, with tents being provided and erected by the Israelis - but international war monitors and human rights groups have decried this as ethnic cleansing - but dressed up in humanitarian language, given the creation and publicizing of yet more sprawling refugee camps.
Thousands of Israelis stayed home from work, flooded city streets and blocked roads and highways across the country on Sunday, staging some of the largest anti-war protests in months as the military prepares for a major assault on Gaza City. https://t.co/S4eBx4BWzE pic.twitter.com/OunIurUPEg
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) August 17, 2025
Below is a Monday update of some of the latest major developments via Al Jazeera:
Tent cities have already been expanding outside Gaza city and in various districts.
Gaza City, via X
Food scarcity has continued to be an immense and dire problem, and something expected to worsen as civilians are driven out of Gaza City by the looming new Israeli ground offensive.
Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 12:25
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