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At The Money: Getting Paid in Company Stock (July 23, 2025)
Equity-based compensation has become an increasingly popular form of compensation in the United States, especially in Tech and high-growth, VC-funded companies.
Full transcript below.
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About this week’s guest:
Joey Fishman is a Senior Advisor at Ritholtz Wealth Management (RWM), where he assists clients with managing their stock, options, and equity compensation.
For more info, see: Personal Bio
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Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify
TRANSCRIPT: Understanding Equity Comp Joey Fishman
Equity based compensation has become an increasingly large part of the US labor landscape, especially in technology and high growth venture capital-funded companies.
I was at a recent employee benefits conference in Silicon Valley. I was shocked to hear from so many corporate benefit managers that a lot of their employees neglect to capitalize on their stock options or other types of equity compensation.
To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your compensation. Let’s bring in Joey Fishman. He’s an expert in equity-based compensation and Bend (previously Portland) Oregon, and he has clients ranging from Seattle and Redmond down to San Francisco and Silicon Valley.
Full disclosure. Joey is the equity compensation expert at my firm, and he is one of my partners.
So Joey, let’s start with the basics. What are the most common types of equity compensation plans today that companies are offering and how do these differ?
Joey Fishman: Thank you so much, Barry. The most comprehensive, the one that we see the most is restricted stock units.
Then followed by non-qualified stock option, it’s incentive stock options. Those three things tend to be the most frequent forms of equity compensation that we see these days.
Barry Ritholtz: RSUs, ESOPs, what are the difference between this alphabet soup of acronyms.
Joey Fishman: So ESOP actually is the employee stock option plan. And so that can include non-qualified stock options or incentive stock options.
Barry Ritholtz: What are the difference between those two?
Joey Fishman: The main difference between the two is that incentive stock options. If you thread the needle appropriately or correctly, you avail yourself to long-term capital gains tax treatment. Non-qualified stock options are a little bit different where you have to meet two different, thresholds in order to avail yourself to, to, uh, long-term capital gains tax.
One basic, primary way, and that is incentive stock options are reserved only for employees. (That comes from the treasury account). The non-qualified stock options that’s typically given to board members, consultants, other folks that have a participating activity within the firm itself, but they’re not necessarily an employee.
Barry Ritholtz: I remember a story about a guy who designed a logo for Facebook and they paid him in stock and it ended up being worth millions of dollars. I don’t know if that that sounds familiar. So, look, my firm is an employer; we issue equity participation. We have about 30 out of nearly 80 employees or partners. I understand the advantage of offering equity compensation, but I want to hear it in your terms. What are the advantages of equity versus cash from a corporate perspective?
Joey Fishman: I mean, not to sound cliche, but we’ve all heard the term that like culture, each strategy. That is very much the case in, in, in this endeavor.
It sets the tone, the right tone from the beginning. Employees are incentivized to grow the business, you know, put their heads down and get after it with less friction between, you know, management and themselves. They, they feel like they’re active participants in growing the business and they’ll be financially rewarded for doing so.
Barry Ritholtz: What are the disadvantages from a corporate perspective?
Joey Fishman: They are complex to administer. Uh, the regulatory environment is kind of a beast. And you do have to spend money on compliance to make sure that you’re threading the needle of all the various rules that apply depending on the various stock plan that you choose to, to employ.
Barry Ritholtz: So let’s say both a company and an employee say, Hey, this equity thing sounds attractive. How do you go about figuring out what’s the right mix of equity and, and actual cash compensation? How does this differ for employees at different levels within the company?
Joey Fishman: It’s more art than science, and so each company is going to have its own version of an equity comp stock plan.
The Nike’s of the world, they tend to get folks that are athletes and like to push themselves. So in some cases, they will offer these employees incentive stock options, which have a lot of leverage upfront. They also have the ability to, to choose RSUs or restricted stock units for folks that want to at least at the end of the day, guarantee that they’re going to have something tangible.
Other firms like Netflix, they, they give you the option to determine how much of your actual compensation that we’re going to give you each year can be dedicated to buying non-qualified stock options.
Broadly speaking, oil and gas typically uses RSUs financials, typically use RSAs (restricted stock awards) with healthy or juicy deferred comp packages. And then tech is very much reliant on options at the beginning. And then as the company grows and becomes more established, it switches to RSUs.
Barry Ritholtz: We’re talking about a variety of different ways to implement an equity-based compensation. What does this mean for taxes? It sounds like each one of these has its own set of tax ramifications for the employee.
Joey Fishman: They do, and it’s very hard, it’s very challenging to navigate all of it. It’s like playing a game of financial twister.
The goal at the end of the day is to get yourself available so that any realized gains from here on out or, or long-term capital gains tax treatment. Because at least there, you know, within the spirit and intent of the law, you have the ability, or at least some options to beat back that tax liability. Ideally, like you’re, you’re getting yourself to that place.
The ones that end up being most punishing, which, you know. Relatively speaking is, you know, folks that have non-qualified stock options or ISOs in, in the incentive stock option case, they may fall under what’s called AMT taxes, which is it. It’s an incredibly in spent expensive tax that’s levied on folks that is not always recoupable down the road. In non-qualified stock options, you may just find yourself completely in ordinary income tax rates. And you know, in some cases, you know, if you’re realizing a couple million dollars worth of non-qualified stock options and you live in the state of California, at the end of the day, you’re walking home with maybe 50 cents on the dollar.
The needles that have to be threaded to make yourself available for long-term capital gains tax treatment are hard. But if you can do it correctly, then the window opens up for your ability to at least chip away at that tax liability and keep more of that game when all is said and done.
Barry Ritholtz: Let’s talk about vesting schedules and the difference between a cliff or a graded vesting. When do these option plans actually show up as real assets to the employee?
Joey Fishman: To the employee? That’s a good question. Okay, so to the employee, they have to follow a vesting schedule and most work under a four-year vesting schedule with a one-year cliff, which simply means that you need to stick around for the next four years and your shares are going to vest in equal amounts. However, nothing is going to vest for the first 12 months, that’s called a cliff.
After the cliff is met, the first 12 months is met. You then get 25% of your shares from there on out for the next 36 months, you’re going to get quarterly divestitures or vesting of, you know, uh, a fractional percentage of the total until that remainder period is up and the equity is all yours.
Barry Ritholtz: Someone who has opted for a high equity portion of their compensation – and their company does really well, let’s just say they’ve won. What’s the procedures from there? How do they take full advantage, minimize their taxes, and reduce some of their concentrated wealth in a single holding?
Joey Fishman: Here’s where things really get complex, and it’s going to depend on if the company is publicly traded or if they’re privately held.
If they’re publicly, that’s the easier of the two because there’s liquidity when you need it. However, as an employee, you’re going to be subject first. After IPO, assuming that you’re going through the process, there’s going to be a six month lockup period where you can’t touch your shares.
Typically, what generally happens is, is that the stock’s going to sell off. It’s going to get shellacked for the next six months, and it’s going to look terrible, and it’s going to feel awful. But eventually, once that six-month lockup period is over and all of the insiders have divested their shares, then it’s, it’s, it’s put up or shut up time. Usually like that, that six month period is really grueling for a lot of folks to endure.
There’s, there’s going to be trading blackout periods that, that surround, uh, earnings releases. If you’re in the C-suite, you’re going to need to file specific forms to, to make sure that you, there’s no whiff of insider trading.
There’s a whole patchwork of laws and rules that you have to follow in order to sell these shares. It’s not as easy as saying, Hey, when it hits this price point, I’m going to sell everything and just live off the, you know, the interest for the rest of my life. It’s not that easy, unfortunately.
Barry Ritholtz: You mentioned private versus public. Obviously it’s easy if the company goes public or if they’re purchased in an M&A transaction, but what happens with private companies where there isn’t necessarily a broad deep market that’s very liquid.
Joey Fishman: They call these double trigger events. In a privately traded market, essentially two things need to occur. One is need to vest. So that’s the first trigger. And the second trigger is there needs to be a liquidity event.
If there’s no transaction where somebody buys shares, or you know, liquidity exchanges, you’re kind of stuck there until something happens, if at all. You could theoretically just have a bunch of net worth on paper that’s captive and never gets realized because there’s just no market for it.
Barry Ritholtz: But other than that, there really is no difference between various stock option plans for a publicly traded company or for a private company. It’s just what the exit looks like.
Joey Fishman: It’s mostly the liquidity constraints that that are challenging for privately traded firms and being able to realize that gain within at least the timeframe that you hope. Sometimes it’s just not available to you until a fluke happens.
Barry Ritholtz: What are some of the biggest mistakes you see that either corporate offerors of equity compensation make or employees who receive equity compensation also engage in?
Joey Fishman: On the employee side, overconfidence tends to run rampant. And I say this because like with our firm, like they’re coming to us after already having won the game. So like the world with which we see is through survivorship bias, I should say that at the, at the forefront.
But they’ve already won. So they’re coming to us and among the things that they need to immediately wrap their heads around is the uncertainty of having to navigate the various rules. There’s a degree of overconfidence, which has its own challenges that need to be dealt with. And usually, like, through strategic planning and showing them, you know, sequence of risk and how this can all play out helps, you know, dampen that down and, you know, there’s resistance to diversifying away from what they’ve attached themselves to for, for so many years. So overcoming those things is, is definitely challenging on the employee side.
On the employer side. It’s the regulatory needles that have to be threaded. It’s a beast. There’s, there’s this fraught with litigation even on the advisory side because it involves taxes. You have to be very careful in, in, in how you communicate things and, and, and display things so that you’re not giving tax advice when you should be strictly relegated to financial advice. And so the employer is also straddling that very same line
It’s very unclear. Sometimes even attorneys don’t want to touch this stuff. So let’s say it’s, it’s a landmine if you don’t know what you’re doing.
Barry Ritholtz: Let’s talk a little bit about psychology. Every employee seems to think their stock is the next Nvidia, when it could just easily be the next Lehman or GE or Enron, for all we know. How do you as an advisor work with employees at hot companies? Letting them understand all of the risks and potential risks they’re looking at?
Joey Fishman: At the end of the day, it is considerably less expensive to lock in your quality of life by diversifying than it is to maintain a concentrated risk in a single security. The other way to say that is that volatility is a tax on returns.
Once you get to a place where, look, there’s 35 times your burn rate net of taxes that are sitting in your equity comp. If you’re not de-risking and locking in your quality of life, now you are missing the opportunity of a lifetime.
Getting them to understand what they don’t want to happen and what they want to avoid is absolutely tantamount. And when you show them the difference between, hey, it’s going to cost you this much to lock in your quality of life with a diversified portfolio, versus if you continue to maintain this course, it’s going to cost you 30 to 40% more to ensure that you’re never going to run outta money again because of the associated volatility with that single security.
Barry Ritholtz: Last question. Tell us about the most recent trends you see in equity compensation. What is going on – especially at tech companies and and high growth firms?
Joey Fishman: They are switching to RSUs, which are the easier of the equity comp. Forms to administer, and there, there, there, it’s, it’s a very simple process. You’re going to have a vesting schedule. It’s most likely going to have a one year cliff. It’ll unfold over four years. But you know, in each portion or each vesting schedule, you’ll be allotted a set of shares, whatever the value is or the trading price is at the time of your vesting.
That’s what, that’s what, uh, your, your, your amount is going to be. There will be taxes owed, but it’s, it’s considerably easier than having to navigate, you know, incentive stock options and AMT tax or non-qualified stock options, the bargain element and all the various tax treatments that go along with it.
The bottom line varies that everyone’s trying to find a way to simplify all this after a 15, 16 year bull market; A lot of the money has been made in the option space and now they’re, they’re settling in for I would say a more mature way of distributing income because distributing equity compensation because with RSUs, at least at the end of the day, you, you’re going to have something.
Barry Ritholtz: To sum up, if you are an employee at a company that offers you an equity part of compensation, you should very much explore it. Speak to your financial advisor, speak to your accountant or tax professional. Make sure you understand the risks.
But if you’ve won this game, don’t hesitate to de-risk. Have a more broadly diversified portfolio. Don’t have 90% of your entire net worth tied up in a single stock. It’s just way too much risk and potentially creates a lot of downside.
I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Bloomberg’s at the Money.
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The post At the Money: Getting Paid in Company Stock appeared first on The Big Picture.
Sales in June (3.93 million SAAR) were down 2.7% from the previous month and were unchanged compared to the June 2024 sales rate. This was the 5th consecutive month with sales unchanged or down year-over-year. ... The sales rate was below the consensus forecast (but right at housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate).There is much more in the article.
...
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)
The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.
Sales were unchanged year-over-year compared to June 2024. This was the 5th consecutive month with sales unchanged or down year-over-year. The next three months will also have the easy year-over-year comparisons.
...
On an NSA basis for the month of June, this was 7% below the low for housing bust for the month of June that happened in June 2008. Year-to-date, sales are down 1.5% NSA.
Existing-home sales decreased by 2.7% in June, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report. ...
Month-over-month sales declined in the Northeast, Midwest and South and rose modestly in the West. Year-over-year, sales fell in the Northeast and West, while rising in the Midwest and South. ...
• 2.7% decrease in existing-home sales -- seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.93 million in June.
• Year-over-year: No change in existing-home sales.
• 0.6% decline in unsold inventory -- 1.53 million units equal to 4.7 months' supply.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.53 million in June from 1.54 million the previous month.
Inventory was up 15.9% year-over-year (blue) in June compared to June 2024. Second-quarter earnings season is in full swing this week. Ahead of earnings reports from dating app companies, Goldman analysts went limp on Grindr, the LGBTQ-focused dating app, maintaining a "Buy" rating while slashing their 12-month price target.
"Grindr user trends have continued to slow in recent months," analysts Eric Sheridan and Julia Fein-Ashley wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.
The analysts lowered their price target on Grindr (GRND) to $24 from $26 but maintained a Buy rating, citing confidence in the dating app's long-term secular growth story, high margins, and strong revenue compounding dynamics. However, they noted that the near-term focus has shifted to concerns about waning user growth, particularly regarding increasing ad loads and a degraded app experience.
"While there has been a number of ads on the app that target the end user base, user commentary around advertisements leads us to believe that the ads are detracting from the core user experience and resulting in some user friction dynamics," they said.
The analysts pointed out, "We believe that Grindr users churn at a higher rate relative to social media apps."
Next, the analysts cited data from intelligence firm HundredX showing that the consumer sentiment metric "Net Usage Intent" peaked in late 2024 and has been declining ever since. This forward-looking indicator, commonly used to gauge user momentum and brand health, suggests that app users are pulling out of the platform.
Download app trends for the overall dating app space appear negative.
Based on third-party user data trends, the analysts decided to lower Grindr's 12-month price target to $24 from a previous level of $26.
Ahead of Grindr's earnings, expected after hours on August 18, the analysts outlined their estimates in comparison to consensus expectations.
. . .
Tyler Durden Wed, 07/23/2025 - 09:05Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,
The Department of Justice removed the newly appointed U.S. attorney for New Jersey on July 22, accusing a panel of federal judges in the state of refusing, for political motives, to permanently appoint President Donald Trump’s former lawyer, Alina Habba, as the top federal prosecutor.
Judges on the U.S. District Court in New Jersey named Desiree Leigh Grace, the second-highest-ranking official in the U.S. attorney’s office, to replace Habba on July 22 after her 120-day interim term ended.
Just hours later, in a statement on X, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced Grace had been removed from the position.
Bondi said Habba “has been doing a great job” at making New Jersey “safe again.”
“Nonetheless, politically minded judges refused to allow her to continue in her position, replacing Alina with the First Assistant,” Bondi said.
“Accordingly, the First Assistant United States Attorney in New Jersey has just been removed.”
Under federal law, district courts may intervene if an interim U.S. attorney has not received Senate confirmation within 120 days.
The Senate has not yet acted on Habba’s formal nomination to the role.
It remains unclear who will now lead the state’s top federal prosecutor’s office or whether district court judges will challenge Grace’s removal.
The Epoch Times has contacted the Department of Justice for further comment.
Trump nominated Habba to be the permanent U.S. attorney for New Jersey on July 1.
According to an order signed by the chief judge for the District of New Jersey, Renee Marie Bumb, on July 22, her appointment was limited by law to 120 days in office unless the court agreed to keep her in the role.
Democratic lawmakers, including New Jersey Sens. Cory Booker and Andy Kim, opposed Habba’s confirmation.
In a joint statement following Bondi’s announcement, they accused Trump’s Department of Justice of “once again criticizing a court that acted within its authority, continuing a pattern of publicly undermining judicial decisions and showing disregard for the rule of law and the separation of powers.”
“The firing of a career public servant, lawfully appointed by the court, is another blatant attempt to intimidate anyone that doesn’t agree with them and undermine judicial independence,” the lawmakers said.
“This Administration may not like the law, but they are not above it. The people of New Jersey deserve a U.S. Attorney who will enforce the law and pursue justice for the people of our state without partisanship or politics,” they added.
Habba served as Trump’s defense lawyer during his 2024 defamation case involving author E. Jean Carroll. She also served as his counsel in the New York criminal case involving falsified business records, which was brought against him by the state’s attorney general, Letitia James.
Todd Blanche, the deputy attorney general, said in a statement on X that the judges on the District Court in New Jersey had forced Habba out of her job before her term expired and “installed her deputy.”
“It won’t work. Pursuant to the President’s authority, we have removed that deputy, effective immediately,” he wrote.
“This backroom vote will not override the authority of the Chief Executive.”
The Epoch Times has contacted Habba for comment. Grace could not be immediately reached for comment.
Tyler Durden Wed, 07/23/2025 - 08:40US equity futures are higher again and trading in record territory following the US, Japan trade deal, which was largely unexpected (Polymarket odds of a deal before August 1 were just 20%), triggering a global risk-on rally. Japan will pay a 15% tariff (down from 25%) with the auto sector tariffs reduced to 15% (also from 25%). This may reduce pressure on the Aug 1 deadline. US / China mtg next week to work on a trade deal with either a deal or an extension most likely. In any case, the news was good enough to push the S&P up 0.3% to a new record high of 6374 although US futures are lagging global counterparts as Value leads; the Nasdaq trades 0.2% higher, also in record territory. Europe's Stoxx 600 jumped 1.2%, led by automakers on hopes the EU can secure its own agreement. Japan’s Topix soared as much as 3.6%, with Toyota posting its biggest daily gain since 1987. Pre-market, Mag7 names are all higher ahead of GOOG/TSLA earnings after the close. Cyclicals are unsurprisingly higher. Also, Meme stocks are ripping pre-mkt, adding 15% - 45% depending on the name. Bond yields are rising across the globe as growth expectations reset higher; JGBs are . USD is flat and commodities are mixed with Energy/Ags weaker and Metals rallying. Today’s macro data focus is on housing
In premarket trading, Mag7 are all higher (Nvidia +0.9%, Meta +0.3%, Microsoft +0.2%, Apple +0.1%, Alphabet +0.05%, Tesla +0.1%, Amazon +0.5%).
After months of uncertainty, Trump’s latest tariff deals have given some clarity on the new trade landscape. The agreement with Japan sets tariffs on the nation’s imports at 15%, including for autos — by far the biggest component of the trade deficit between the countries. Japan’s Topix Index closed up 3.2%, while Toyota Motor Corp. shares climbed the most since 1987.
Market sentiment was boosted overnight on hopes that the European Union will ink its own accord with the US. treasuries were poised to end a five-day winning run as demand for havens waned. The trade optimism contrasted with a batch of disappointing results from companies including Texas Instruments Inc., Nokia Oyj and SAP SE. The big tech names — Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. — come after the close.
“The positive is that hopefully we’re coming to the end of all the tariff cloudiness in terms of what the ultimate rates will be so businesses can plan around them,” said Peter Boockvar at the Boock Report.
JPMorgan quantitative strategists warned of “a growing air of complacency” as the stocks rally coincides with an acceleration in earnings downgrades. “Either sell-side analysts are about to start a new round of upward revisions or the market is at risk of suffering a period of increased volatility and draw-downs,” the JPMorgan team led by Khuram Chaudhry said. “Something has to give!”
Turning back to earnings, where we see the first mega tech names report later today with GOOGL and TSLA, the “Magnificent Seven” are expected to post a combined 14% rise in second-quarter profits, while earnings for the rest of the US equity benchmark are predicted to be relatively flat, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data. Analysts will be studying the latest quarterly earnings from big tech for signs of resilience in a sector that has driven the rebound in US equities. Nasdaq 100 futures pointed to small gains at the open.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 jumped 1.2%, led by automakers on hopes the EU can secure its own agreement. The tariff-sensitive auto sector outperforms, while utilities are the biggest laggards. In individual stocks, SAP falls as the software firm said that sales cycles are getting longer due to uncertainties around tariffs. Here are the most notable European movers:
Earlier in the session, a key gauge of Asian stocks rose by the most in a month, as a trade deal between the US and Japan raised optimism for more agreements ahead of Donald Trump’s Aug. 1 tariff deadline. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 2%, reaching a four-year high, with Toyota and Tencent the biggest boosts. Japan led gains in the region, with the Topix gauge closing within a whisker of a record high, with Toyota posting its biggest daily gain since 1987. Stocks also climbed in Taiwan and Hong Kong, where a gauge of Chinese shares closed at its highest level since late 2021. Philippine equities rallied after an agreement was reached with the US that includes a slightly lower tariff of 19%. Thailand’s benchmark jumped as much as 2.6% after the nation’s finance minister said it’s close to a deal to lower a threatened 36% levy. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index jumped 1.8% on Wednesday, topping a previous year-to-date high hit on March 18, after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he will meet counterparts from Beijing next week for a third round of talks aimed at extending a tariff truce. Here are the most notable movers:
In FX, the yen fluctuated after Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said there was no truth in media reports that he will resign. The Bloomberg dollar spot index was flat. EUR and DKK were the weakest performers in the G-10 sphere, with NZD and AUD outperforming.
In rates, an auction of 40-year government notes in Japan saw the weakest demand ratio since 2011. The sale was a test of appetite for super-long debt following a historic election defeat for Ishiba when his ruling coalition failed to win a majority in the upper house at a vote on Sunday. The country’s 10-year government bond yield rose to the highest since 2008. The selloff spread to global bonds, with Treasuries, gilts and bunds falling across the curve, the most at the long end. UK 30-year bonds lagged peers, with the yield rising 6bps to 5.46%.
In commodities, Brent traded within Tuesday’s range at $68.40. Spot gold was little changed at $3,432/oz.
Looking at the US economic data calendar, we only have June existing home sales (10am). Fed officials are in external communications blackout ahead of their July 30 rate decision
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
Trade/Tariffs
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly higher as focus centred on the latest trade developments after US President Trump announced three trade deals in one day with the Philippines, Indonesia and Japan, with the latter involving a USD 550bln investment in the US and 15% tariffs for Japanese goods. ASX 200 gained with the advances led by strength in materials, miners, energy and resources, while defensives are at the other end of the spectrum. Nikkei 225 surged above 41,000 following the announcement of a US-Japan trade deal involving a 15% tariff on Japanese goods including autos and auto parts which is less than the previous threat of 25% tariffs and in turn, boosted automakers which dominated the list of biggest gainers with several up by double-digit percentages, while there were also tailwinds as the JPY slightly softened in the aftermath of a report that PM Ishiba is to announce his resignation by the end of August. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the mostly positive risk tone with US President Trump noting that there will probably be a meeting with Chinese President Xi in the not-too-distant future, while US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they will likely work out an extension regarding the August 12th deadline with China and he will attend talks next Monday and Tuesday with China in Stockholm.
Top Asian News
European bourses (STOXX 600 +1.2%) opened firmer across the board, and continued to trade higher throughout the morning - currently at session highs. European sectors hold a very strong positive bias, with only a couple of sectors residing in negative territory. Autos tops the pile and is currently the clear outperformer, largely benefiting from trade optimism after Japan finally struck a deal with US - optimism which stems from traders factoring in the potential benefits European automakers now have on pricing over Japanese autos. Consumer Products also benefit from the broader risk tone.
Top European News
FX
Fixed Income
Commodities
Geopolitics
US Event Calendar
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As we go to press this morning, we’ve had some huge headlines out of Japan. First, they reached a trade deal with the US ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline, which has led to a surge in Japanese equities, with the Nikkei up +3.25%. Second, it’s been reported by the Yomiuri newspaper that Prime Minister Ishiba has decided to step down and might announce his resignation as soon as this month, which follows the upper house election at the weekend. And third, weak demand at a 40yr bond auction has seen a fresh move higher for Japanese government bond yields, with the 10yr yield up +7.3ps to 1.58%, which would almost be its highest closing level since 2008.
For global markets, the trade deal news has been the most significant, as it’s raised hopes that the US might be about to reach deals with other countries that avoid the higher tariffs on August 1. That deal with Japan includes a 15% tariff, beneath the 25% tariff that Trump threatened in his recent letter, and Bloomberg have also reported that Japan’s automobiles and parts would face the 15% tariff, and not the higher sectoral tariff for automobiles. In a post, Trump also said that “Japan will invest, at my direction, $550 Billion Dollars into the United States, which will receive 90% of the Profits.” However, the details of how that will work are not immediately clear.
The news of the deal has led to a big jump for Japanese equities, with the Nikkei (+3.25%) on course for its best daily performance since the 90-day tariff extension was announced in early April. And notably, it’s been auto companies that have led the way, with Toyota’s share price up +14.18% this morning as investors reacted to the news on the auto tariffs. Moreover, that optimism has carried over into other Asian markets outside Japan, with advances for the Hang Seng (+1.13%), the CSI 300 (+0.74%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.75%) and the KOSPI (+0.18%). And over in the United States, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.19%, building on their record high in yesterday’s session.
Notably, one of the other strong performers this morning are European equity futures, with those on the German DAX up +0.93%. That’s because the Japan deal has significantly raised hopes that the EU might also be able to reach a trade deal, as they’ve been threatened with 30% tariffs on August 1. Indeed, Trump also announced a deal with the Philippines yesterday that would see them face a 19% tariff. And there were some positive remarks on trade from US Treasury Secretary Bessent as well yesterday, stating that he would meet his Chinese counterparts in Stockholm for further talks. As a reminder, the US and China agreed to dial back their tariffs for 90 days in May, with the US rate coming down from 145% to 30%, so that’s about to run out in mid-August. But Bessent struck a positive note, saying that “we’ll be working out what is likely an extension then.”
Collectively, this more positive trade news has really helped to ease investor fears that tariffs are about to snap back higher on August 1. But of course, the threat of much higher tariffs still remains for several large economies, including the 30% on the EU, 35% on Canada and 50% on Brazil. And there’s also the pledge of higher sectoral tariffs, including 50% on copper, so this is far from the end just yet, and those tariffs would each have a significant impact if they did come in. We also know from experience that we might not know the outcome until hours before the deadline, which happened in early February where the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico were postponed for 30-days on the day before they were due to be implemented.
Whilst Japanese equities have rallied overnight, it’s been a different story for the country’s bond markets, with the 10yr yield currently just shy of its highest closing level since 2008. That follows a 40yr bond auction, where the bonds yielded the highest on record at 3.375%, whilst the demand ratio was the weakest since 2011. So that’s seen the 10yr JGB yield rise +7.3bps to 1.58%, whilst the 40yr yield is up +9.0bps this morning to 3.45%. And that’s cascaded across global markets too, with the 10yr US Treasury yield also up +2.0bps overnight to 4.36%.
Those headlines overnight followed a comparatively quiet day for markets yesterday, where the S&P 500 (+0.06%) just about eked out another record high. Paradoxically given the overnight developments, there had been growing concerns about tariffs earlier in the session, with Bessent saying in an interview that “What I think will happen is that the tariff level will boomerang back to the reciprocal level on April 2nd.” So that had raised fears about a much higher tariff rate, before the news of the Japan deal saw that ease again. Indeed, the risk-off move yesterday saw gold prices (+1.01%) almost close at a record high, at $3,431/oz.
One factor ultimately supporting markets yesterday was the continued decline in Treasury yields, with the 10yr (-3.3bps) and the 30yr (-2.7bps) yields falling for a 5th consecutive day, down to 4.35% and 4.92% respectively. That came in part because of a belief that Fed Chair Powell’s position was relatively more secure, particularly after Bessent said there was “nothing that tells me that he should step down right now”. And while President Trump made some fresh criticisms of Powell, claiming that rates should be at 1%, there was no fresh urgency in his remarks, instead saying “he's going to be out pretty soon anyway. In eight months, he'll be out”. So from a market perspective, that continued to ease the fears from last week that Powell might be fired. That said, lower yields did continue to weigh on the dollar index, which fell -0.47% to mark its worst 3-day run (-1.36%) in two months.
Those tariff fears were evident earlier in the day, where European equities lost ground. The STOXX 600 was down -0.41%, and some of the more trade-exposed stocks did particularly badly, with the STOXX Automobiles and Parts Index down -1.26%. Those losses were echoed across most of Europe, with the CAC 40 (-0.69%) and the DAX (-1.09%) seeing decent falls. However, US stocks shrugged off those concerns, and the S&P 500 (+0.06%) pared back its earlier losses to ultimately close at a new high, whilst the equal-weighted index was up +1.29% as interest-rate sensitive sectors led the gains. By contrast, tech stocks lost ground before the start of the Mag-7 earnings today that sees Alphabet and Tesla reporting after the US close. The NASDAQ and Mag-7 fell by -0.39% and -0.48% respectively.
Meanwhile, European bonds experienced a further rally yesterday, with further gains after the very strong moves on Monday. That saw yields on 10yr bunds (-2.3bps), OATs (-3.0bps) and BTPs (-1.6bps) all move lower. And gilts (-3.3bps) saw a similar move, despite data showing that the UK government borrowed more than expected in June, at £20.7bn (vs. £17.5bn expected). The moves were also supported by lower inflation expectations in the near-term, particularly as Brent crude oil prices fell -0.90% to $68.59/bbl.
Elsewhere, there was very little data to speak of yesterday, although the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index fell to an 11-month low of -20 (vs. -2 expected).
To the day ahead now, and data releases include US existing home sales for June, and the Euro Area’s preliminary consumer confidence reading for July. Otherwise, earnings releases include Alphabet and Tesla.
Tyler Durden Wed, 07/23/2025 - 08:28Very soon if you want AI (and even if you don't), you won't be able to afford AC.
Just this morning we warned readers that America's largest power grid, PJM Interconnect, which serves 65 million people across 13 states and Washington, DC, and more importantly feeds Deep State Central's Loudoun County, Virginia, also known as 'Data Center Alley' and which is recognized as one of the world's largest hubs for data centers...
... had recently issued multiple 'Maximum Generation' and 'Load Management' alerts this summer, as the heat pushes power demand to the brink with air conditioners running at full blast across the eastern half of the U.S.
But as anyone who has not lived under a rock knows, the deeper issue is that there's simply not enough baseload juice to feed the relentless, ravenous growth of power-hungry AI server racks at new data centers.
"There is simply no new capacity to meet new loads," said Joe Bowring to Bloomberg, president of Monitoring Analytics, which is the independent watchdog for PJM Interconnection. "The solution is to make sure that people who want to build data centers are serious enough about it to bring their own generation."
Well, there is another solution: crank up prices to the stratosphere.
And that's precisely what happened. As Bloomberg reports, business and households supplied by the largest US grid will pay $16.1 billion to ensure there is enough electricity supply to meet soaring power demand, especially that from a massive buildout in AI data centers.
The payouts to generators for the year starting June 2026 topped last year’s record $14.7 billion, according to PJM Interconnection LLC, which operates the grid stretching from the Midwest to the mid-Atlantic. That puts the capacity price per megawatt each day at a record $329.17 from $269.92.
In response to the blowout payout, shares of Constellation Energy and Talen Energy surged in late trading in New York on Tuesday.
As millions of Americans will very soon learn the hard way, AI data centers are driving the biggest surge in US electric demand in decades, leading to higher residential utility bills. That’s a key reason why PJM’s auction, once only tracked by power traders and plant owners but now increasingly a topic for general consumption as electricity bills are about to hit an all time high, has also become closely watched by politicians and consumer advocates.
As Bloomberg notes, this is the first auction that included both a price floor and cap, setting the range at $177.24 to $329.17, which of course was the clearing price level reached in this auction. Why even bother pretending there is an auction: just set the price at the max and be done with it. Last year’s 600% jump in capacity prices set off a political firestorm, resulting in PJM reaching a settlement with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro to essentially cap gains for two years and make auction prices more predictable after wild swings in recent years.
Despite the increase in costs across the grid, the price cap trimmed costs for consumers who saw the biggest hikes in the last auction. Exelon’s Baltimore area utility reached a $466 last time, while Dominion Energy’s Virginia territory came in at about $444.
Payouts to generators stayed at high levels due to surging demand from big data centers coming online swiftly, said Jon Gordon, policy director of non-profit clean energy advocacy Advanced Energy United. New facilities are consuming as much power as towns or small cities, coinciding with a wave of older power plants shutting down and lagging investment in new supplies and grid upgrades, he said.
The per-megawatt price exceeding the 2024 auction, and well closing at an all time high, is bullish for independent power producers including NRG, Talen, Constellation and Vistra, Barclays analyst Nick Campenella had forecast. These generators have spent more than $34 billion so far this year on deals to mainly buy up power plants fueled by natural gas to feed the AI boom especially in PJM.
Tyler Durden Wed, 07/23/2025 - 07:55With earnings season just kicking off for corporate America, it's hard not to recall what Target CEO Brian Cornell told investors in May—blaming a soft quarter on a consumer boycott over the retailer's decision to scale back its DEI initiatives. The retailer has faced multiple boycotts in recent years.
It's certainly not a question in our minds—but one that Goldman has raised: When will the boycott pressure on the retailer that has managed to anger both sides of the political aisle finally subside?
First, recall, Target managed to spark a boycott among conservatives for its demonic LGBTQ-friendly kids clothing, telling consumers in 2023 that the branding is "the right thing for society." Some of those offerings included T-shirts that say "Pride Adult Drag Queen 'Katya,'" "Trans people will always exist!" and "Girls Gays Theys."
Then, earlier this year, Target, yet again, managed to spark a boycott among progressives for discontinuing several of its DEI initiatives. The retailer simply cannot navigate the political and social minefields.
This brings us to a new report published Tuesday by Goldman analysts led by Kate McShane, who told clients that the Target boycotts may be starting to ease, with "some early green shoots" visible—though it's "still too early to call a turnaround."
McShane cited sentiment data—including X feeds, social sentiment, app downloads, and traffic trends—to better gauge consumer behavior around the retailer.
The analyst noted:
We are starting to see some early green shoots (through 7/16) with a sequential improvement in both Twitter sentiment and Morning Consult's net favorability score. That said, app downloads declined both sequentially and y/y, and traffic data remains negative. Compared to June, we highlight that NPI/NPS trends have improved, especially with frequent customers; however, we note it is still too early to call a turnaround given that KPIs have not improved m/m and TGT's NPI for less frequent customers still remains at its lows While TGT reset its FY25 earnings guide with 1Q earnings in May, to get more positive we would need to see an improvement in comp trends and a rightsizing of the company's inventory position.
On the social media front, McShane noted that negative sentiment around the retailer is easing, with some positive sentiment beginning to emerge. She added that the recovery may still be a long one…
Target app downloads remained depressed.
Traffic trends via Placer have steadily improved since February.
And more low-income consumers have been shopping at the retailer, with a noticeable increase in this cohort beginning about a year ago
Net Promoter Scores (NPS) and Net Purchase Intent (NPI) metrics via HundredX have potentially bottomed out.
However, Target's NPI is significantly lower than Walmart's.
Looking ahead to Target's upcoming Q2 earnings (expected release Aug. 20), McShane forecasts same-store sales to fall by 3%, slightly better than the -3.1% LSEG Data & Analytics consensus estimate. She also expects an operating margin of 5.3% (vs. 5.1% consensus) and earnings per share of $2.06, modestly above the consensus estimate of $2.02. Her rating is "Neutral" on the stock with a 12-month price target of $90.
Beyond Target, we recently referenced Goldman's Beverage Bytes survey, which showed that Bud Light is still struggling years later after the brewer partnered with Dylan Mulvaney—a biological male pretending to be a woman—for TikTok promotional videos.
The lesson for corporate America is that Gen-Zers and Millennials with DEI degrees from elite liberal colleges are increasingly viewed as liabilities in an era where the Overton Window has shifted to the center-right—and is likely to remain there throughout President Trump's second term.
Tyler Durden Wed, 07/23/2025 - 07:45Its appears Coca-Cola will be launching a cane-sugar soda this fall in the U.S. The beverage company announced its implementation in its second quarter earnings on Tuesday. This, according to Hannah Parker at Quartz. The new product announcement comes nearly a week after President Donald Trump took to Truth Social Wednesday to declare Coca-Cola agreed to switch […]
The post ‘It’s just better’ According to the U.S. President appeared first on Angry Bear.
Pope Leo is facing growing calls to take direct action in Gaza, as critics urge him to lead an aid mission to the besieged enclave after Israeli air strikes and amid worsening humanitarian conditions.
The push is in response to a statement the pontiff posted on X on Sunday, expressing sorrow over the Israeli strike that killed three Christians at the Holy Family Catholic Church in Gaza City last week. "Tragic news continues to arrive in these days from the Middle East, especially from Gaza," the Pope wrote.
"I express my profound sadness regarding last Thursday’s attack by the Israeli army on the Catholic Parish of the Holy Family in Gaza City, which as you know killed three Christians and gravely wounded others. I pray for the victims… and I am particularly close to their families and to all the parishioners."
Via Reuters
He named the victims - Saad Issa Kostandi Salameh, Foumia Issa Latif Ayyad and Najwa Ibrahim Latif Abu Daoud - and offered his spiritual support to their families and community.
While many welcomed the gesture, others criticized the Pope for stopping short of taking further action.
The new statement followed Pope Leo’s initial response, shared last Friday, which acknowledged the loss of life but did not name Israel as the attacker.
That omission drew swift backlash and prompted comparisons with his predecessor, Pope Francis, who became known for his outspoken criticism of Israel’s war on Gaza and his regular contact with Gaza’s Christian community.
Now, pressure is growing on Pope Leo not only to speak more forcefully, but also to take action.
“The Pope should go to Gaza and bring aid in,” one user wrote on social media. “He should dare the Israelis to block him. Words, no matter how heartfelt, will not save a single starving child.”
Another said the Pope could board a ship carrying food and medical supplies. “With the UN declaring the final stage of famine that might be irreversible for millions, bold acts of courage are the only chance.”
Some pointed to the Pope’s unique status on the global stage, with one writing that “there are like 6 or 7 people that Israel would not have the guts, or free license from the US, to shoot down if delivering aid, and the Pope is one of them”.
I would love to see Pope Leo *lead* a delegation to Gaza and bring medical supplies and food/water to people who are literally in the last deadly stages of famine.
— Dr Altha Cravey (@LocoCravey) July 21, 2025
There's still (barely) time to reverse profound health consequences for many thousands caused by Israel. https://t.co/gooGaSRonH
"Get in a plane with humanitarian aid, break the aerial siege," another user wrote. "Would they down your airplane? The Pope’s plane?"
Since October 7, 2023, Israel’s military campaign and blockade - which scholars and international organizations have said amount to genocide - have devastated the Gaza Strip.
The UN’s humanitarian affairs office warned on Sunday that families in Gaza are enduring “catastrophic hunger”, with children “wasting away” and some dying before help can reach them.
Gaza’s civil defence agency said on Sunday that infant deaths caused by starvation are rising. “These heartbreaking cases were not caused by direct bombing but by starvation, the lack of baby formula and the absence of basic healthcare,” civil defence spokesperson Mahmud Bassal said, noting at least three such deaths in the past week alone.
Tyler Durden Wed, 07/23/2025 - 07:20The government funding for public broadcasting is relatively small in the scheme of things. In total an ~ 1.1 billion. ~$535 million appropriated for fiscal year 2026 under the Further Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2024, and another $535 million under the Full-Year Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act of 2025. It does play a role getting information out to […]
The post Rural Public Broadcasting appeared first on Angry Bear.
Mortgage applications increased 0.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 18, 2025.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 22 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 22 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
“The 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged higher last week to its highest level in four weeks at 6.84 percent, while rates for other loan types were mixed. Purchase applications finished the week higher, driven by conventional purchase loans, and continue to run ahead of last year’s pace,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “After reaching $460,000 in March 2025, the purchase loan amount has fallen to its lowest level since January 2025 to $426,700. With the 30-year fixed rate still too high to benefit many borrowers, refinance applications were down almost three percent for the week.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.84 percent from 6.82 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.President Donald Trump announced overnight on Truth Social that he had secured a "massive" trade agreement with Japan. The deal will lower tariffs on Japanese imports to just 15% and includes a pledge from Tokyo to invest $550 billion in the U.S.
The new trade deal is a major positive for Japan's auto industry and will likely alleviate the impact of tariffs.
According to Goldman analysts Kota Yuzawa and Ken Kawamoto, the reduction in auto tariffs could lower the combined gross tariff impact on the top seven automakers from -¥3.47 trillion to -¥1.89 trillion. This would reduce the projected operating profit hit for FY3/25 from -47% to -25%.
The analysts said if the seven automakers (Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Subaru, Mitsubishi, Suzuki, and Mazda) offset 30% of the tariff burden through price hikes and cost savings, the net impact could fall to ¥1.32 trillion, or an 18% profit hit. If 60% of the impact were offset with price hikes, they said the negative profit impact could be reduced to just 10%.
"We believe that the negative impact of tariffs can be mitigated to some extent by raising US vehicle sales prices," Yuzawa noted.
Stocks of the seven automakers have been battered since March 26, around the time President Trump intensified the trade war. For example, Toyota shares had fallen 14% in recent months, while Nissan dropped 27%, Subaru 15%, and Mazda 22%. However, much of those losses were reversed in Tokyo trading, with Toyota surging 14%, Nissan rising 8%, Subaru climbing 16%, and similar gains among peers.
Exhibit 1: Tariff negative impact likely to be alleviated
Exhibit 2: Expectations for mitigation measures
In addition to Japanese auto stocks, European autos lead. Here's more from UBS:
Markets are led by Autos (SXAP up 4.1%) after the US and Japan agreed a trade deal with positioning also playing a role as consensus shorts outperform longs by about 1%.
Tailwinds from trade news are emerging as the meme stock craze erupts in the U.S. (we've got the names to focus on here).
Tyler Durden Wed, 07/23/2025 - 06:55Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Microsoft said on Tuesday that it has observed Beijing-backed hackers exploiting widespread attacks against organizations using collaboration software from the tech giant.
A member of an alleged hacking group, in a file photo. Nicolas Asfouri/AFP via Getty Images
“As of this writing, Microsoft has observed two named Chinese nation-state actors, Linen Typhoon and Violet Typhoon, exploiting these vulnerabilities targeting internet-facing SharePoint servers,” the Redmond, Washington-based company said in a blog post on Tuesday.
It added that “another China-based threat actor, tracked as Storm-2603,” was seen exploiting vulnerabilities in its SharePoint software, which is widely used to coordinate work on projects, documents, and other business.
“With the rapid adoption of these exploits, Microsoft assesses with high confidence that threat actors will continue to integrate them into their attacks against unpatched on-premises SharePoint systems,” Microsoft added.
Exploits include bypassing the program’s authentication feature and executing remote code “against vulnerable on-premises SharePoint servers,” Microsoft said.
Microsoft’s post advised customers using SharePoint to upgrade it with the latest security patches in order to stop attacks and exploits from Chinese hacking groups. It also advised that users enable Microsoft software such as Defender Antivirus and its Antimalware Scan Interface, or equivalent programs.
“Additional actors may use these exploits to target unpatched on-premises SharePoint systems, further emphasizing the need for organizations to implement mitigations and security updates immediately,” the company said.
Linen Typhoon, according to Microsoft, is accused of stealing intellectual property and is focused on organizations connected to human rights, governments, defense, and strategic planning.
Violet Typhoon has been more focused on exploiting systems related to former government and military officials, nongovernmental organizations, universities and colleges, print and digital media, and think tanks, among other sectors.
In March, the Department of Justice (DOJ) indicted two Chinese nationals accused of operating in the APT27 , or Linen Typhoon, hacking group, which researchers say has many different names.
The two nationals were alleged to have hacked into U.S. companies, municipalities, and other institutions for profit, and caused millions of dollars worth of damages, the DOJ said.
Microsoft’s Tuesday post did not elaborate on the types or names of organizations that were targeted through the SharePoint vulnerability.
On Saturday, the company sent out an alert about “active attacks” on self-hosted SharePoint servers, and also issued an emergency fix to shut down the vulnerability, while dubbing it a “zero-day” exploit because it leverages a previously undisclosed digital weakness. SharePoint instances run off of Microsoft servers were not impacted, the company said.
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency has warned that the impact could be widespread and said that servers impacted by the vulnerability should be disconnected from the internet before any updates are applied. Meanwhile, private research firms have said that the vulnerability can lead to serious security breaches.
“Once inside, they can access all SharePoint content, system files, and configurations and move laterally across the Windows Domain,” Netherlands-based research company Eye Security said in a research note on the hacks.
It added that “because SharePoint often connects to core services like Outlook, Teams, and OneDrive, a breach can quickly lead to data theft, password harvesting, and lateral movement across the network.”
Reuters contributed to this report.
Tyler Durden Wed, 07/23/2025 - 06:30In a major breakthrough and short-term diplomatic 'win' for the Zelensky government, Germany and the United States have agreed to supply Ukraine with five more Patriot air defense systems, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced on Monday.
The defense chief revealed the move at the 29th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, describing that the deal was finalized during his recent visit to Washington, where he met with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. "We will coordinate closely in the coming days to determine how best to achieve this," Pistorius confirmed.
Via AFP
He additionally affirmed that Germany will also provide air defense ammunition and fund Ukrainian-made long-range drones.
This is despite German government officials previously expressing alarm that the country's remaining stocks were too low to support additional transfer; however Pistorious sought to address this elephant in the room by announcing the US has agreed to supply Germany with replacement systems originally ordered by Switzerland. Delivery is likely years away though.
"Delivery of the systems, worth billions of euros, to Switzerland was scheduled to begin in 2027 and be completed in 2028," EuroNews emphasizes.
The German government has already sent three of its dozen Patriot batteries to Ukraine. Two more are currently stationed in Poland, and others are used for NATO operations and training. Germany currently only has six, Pistorius disclosed.
The announcement comes as Russia intensifies its long-range missile attacks on Ukraine, increasingly using ballistic missiles, which ironically is a threat that only the Patriot system is capable of effectively intercepting.
In the early hours of Monday, Russian strikes hit the Ukrainian capital, killing one person and injuring at least six others, according to local officials.
Results of Monday attack on Kiev at a bus stop, via AP.
Other European countries, are also meanwhile digging deep to provide more support for Ukraine - amid reports that Washington has stepped back compared to the opening years of the war.
"As well as the contribution to the Patriots, Brekelmans said the Netherlands would also provide more missiles for Ukraine's small operational fleet of F-16 fighter jets, more radars and counter-drone technology," Newsweek details. "The Netherlands was one of four countries that pledged to deliver fourth-generation Western jets to Kyiv."
Tyler Durden Wed, 07/23/2025 - 05:45Authored by Evgenia Flimianova via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The UK government gave the final go-ahead on Monday for the Sizewell C nuclear power plant to be built in eastern England after securing investment from Canadian pension fund La Caisse, Centrica, and Amber Infrastructure.
EDF Energy's Sizewell B nuclear power station, in Sizewell, England, on Sept. 1, 2022. Chris Radburn/AFP via Getty Images
Sizewell C in Suffolk will be the UK’s second new nuclear plant in more than two decades, following the government’s 2013 deal with EDF to build Hinkley Point C in Somerset, which is now expected to come online in 2029 after years of delays and cost overruns.
The state will be the largest shareholder in the Sizewell C project with a 44.9 percent stake. La Caisse will hold 20 percent, energy firm Centrica 15 percent, and London-based Amber Infrastructure will take an initial 7.6 percent, joining France’s state-owned EDF, which had already announced its 12.5 percent stake.
The new plant will be the third nuclear station at the Sizewell site, following Sizewell A and B, both of which are being decommissioned.
Sizewell C was initially proposed in the early 2010s as a joint project between EDF and China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN). The UK government removed Chinese involvement in 2022, buying out CGN’s stake due to national security concerns.
The plant is expected to deliver clean power to the equivalent of 6 million homes and create up to 10,000 jobs at the peak of construction, the government said.
It also estimates the plant could save the UK electricity system around 2 billion pounds ($2.6 billion) per year on average, once operational.
“This government is making the investment needed to deliver a new golden age of nuclear, so we can end delays and free us from the ravages of the global fossil fuel markets to bring bills down for good,” Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said.
Funding, OverrunsThe government said Sizewell C will be financed using a regulated asset base (RAB) model, allowing developers to recover certain development costs before construction begins.
These costs may include setting up the project company, preparing the supply chain, and conducting site investigations.
UK ministers said the project has secured more financing than the estimated 38 billion pound ($51 billion) construction cost, providing a buffer against overruns. The funding model encourages cost control by making investors, not taxpayers, bear the risk of budget overruns, the government said.
Alongside the agreed private investment, the National Wealth Fund—the government’s principal investor and policy bank—will provide most of the project’s debt financing, working with France’s Bpifrance Assurance Export to support construction of the plant.
Quebec-based global investment group La Caisse, which operates Canada’s second-largest pension fund, said it was investing up to 1.7 billion pounds ($2.3 billion) in the project.
“Our investment demonstrates our confidence in the UK market, our largest destination outside North America, and aligns with our commitment to the energy transition and decarbonization, enabled by our long-term capital and active ownership” La Caisse’s Head of Infrastructure Emmanuel Jaclot said in a July 22 statement.
Centrica said in a statement it had committed construction funding of 1.3 billion pounds ($1.7 billion).
“This isn’t just an investment in a new power station, it’s an investment in Britain’s energy independence, our net zero journey, and thousands of high-quality jobs across the country,” Centrica Group Chief Executive Chris O'Shea said on Tuesday.
France’s EDF said the project will support the French nuclear industry by involving about 40 French suppliers and lowering costs for future EPR2 reactors, the next-generation evolution of the European Pressurized Reactor design.
EPR2 is central to France’s plan to build at least six new reactors by 2050, as announced by French President Emmanuel Macron in 2022.
Global Nuclear Revival Gains MomentumBritain’s Sizewell C decision comes amid a broader global nuclear revival, as countries seek to strengthen energy security, meet climate goals, and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.
In the United States, tech giants such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Google have signed long-term nuclear energy deals to power data centers. Last year, Microsoft entered a 20-year power purchase agreement to reopen Pennsylvania’s closed Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear power plant.
The war in Ukraine and efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 returned nuclear energy to the European Union’s policy agenda. That includes the creation of the European Nuclear Alliance in 2023 to promote nuclear power as part of the bloc’s climate strategy, along with calls from EU leaders for the region to produce more of its own nuclear energy.
In Japan, utility giant Kansai Electric Power Co. announced on Tuesday that it is considering building the country’s first new nuclear reactor since the 2011 Fukushima disaster.
The company has resumed surveys for a potential project at its Mihama Nuclear Power Plant site.
Tyler Durden Wed, 07/23/2025 - 05:00Having managed to derail populist, NATO-skeptical presidential candidates through a variety of extraordinary means, Romania -- bowing to pressure from NATO and President Trump -- announced it will spend $2.3 billion on Israeli anti-aircraft systems to fend off the supposed Russian menace.
The big-ticket, Israel-benefitting purchase comes even as Romania is poised to impose dramatic austerity measures to address its deteriorating financial condition. Romania's 2025 deficit will be the largest in the country's history. At roughly 9% of GDP, its deficit is also the EU's highest by that measure. The alarming numbers have triggered reprimands from the European Commission, which asked Romania to bring its deficit down to 2.8% of GDP by 2030. At last month's NATO summit, the organization's members bent to Trump's long-running demands, agreeing to more than double their targeted military spending -- from 2% of GDP to 5% -- by 2035.
Romania will reportedly purchase SPYDER air-defense platforms from Israel's Rafael Advanced Defense Systems (company promotional photo)
Working hard to rationalize the outlay, Reuters' report on the Israeli deal notes that Romania "has had Russian drone fragments fall in its territory repeatedly over the past two years." The Times of Israel bolstered the narrative with a headline claiming "Romania [is] on edge over Russia."
Last year, Romania seemed poised to elect the deeply NATO-skeptical populist Calin Georgescu, who won the first round of Romania's two-round presidential election. Citing supposed Russian interference, the country's Constitutional Court threw out the election and ordered it to be started anew. In a May triumph for the EU establishment, centrist Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan prevailed.
Romania's pending redistribution of $2.3 billion of its wealth to Israel's booming arms industry comes as the government is poised to unleash drastic austerity measures that are certain to stoke resentments. Potential moves include firing 20% of the country's civil service workers, increasing value-added taxes, and increasing taxes on profits and dividends from 10% to 16%. “This correction is so extensive, so far-reaching, that pain cannot be avoided,” former finance minister and current head of the Romanian Fiscal Council Daniel Daianu told Politico.
Meanwhile, Romania will shower $2.3 billion on an Israeli arms industry already enjoying record revenues. Hitting a new high for the fourth consecutive year, Israeli weapon sales totaled just under $14.8 billion in 2024. European customers accounted for 54% of exports, the Times of Israel reports.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu departs the White House after an April 7 meeting in which Trump announced big military spending plans (Mark Shiefelbein - AP)
Under the new arms agreement, Romania will buy short-range and very-short-range anti-aircraft systems from Israel's Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, with contracts encompassing training, logistical support and ammunition. The first two V/SHORAD systems will be delivered within three years of the contract's signing, which is expected this fall. The Defense Post reports that Rafael submitted its SPYDER missile systems in the bidding competition. Rafael defeated South Korea's LIG Nex1, European multinational MBDA and Germany's Diehl Defence.
Too many conservative Americans clap like seals when Trump demands that European countries spend more money on "defense" -- seemingly oblivious to the fact that higher defense spending by European governments is not geared to achieving lower defense spending by the US government. Indeed, in a matter of several weeks during his new term, Trump went from oratorically aspiring to partner with Russia and China to cut the three countries' military budgets in half, to enthusiastically announcing his approval of a Pentagon request to lift spending to a record $1 trillion.
Fittingly, Trump did so in an Oval Office session with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his side. Turning to the man who would soon drag Trump into a war on Iran launched on false claims about Iran's nuclear program, Trump said, "You'll like to hear of this."
Tyler Durden Wed, 07/23/2025 - 04:15
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Been following this issue for a while. Pulled this from an Atlantic article from December 2024. In the 1980s, consumers did more than half of their grocery shopping at independent stores. This included both single-location businesses and small, locally owned chains. This changed in the 1980s. Convinced tough antitrust enforcement was holding back American business, […]
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