Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time
Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,
Current FBI Director Kash Patel is closing down the agency’s Washington, DC, mothership office and moving at least 1,500 employees out of the DC area to regional offices.
The decision was not just Patel’s.
During the Biden Administration, it was determined that the 50-year-old Hoover building headquarters was structurally decrepit. More germanely, no prior FBI director had ever explained why nearly a third of the FBI workforce was centered in offices in Washington, far from where most of the serious crime in America occurs.
The news is welcome for reasons well beyond the safety of agents in an apparently unsafe headquarters.
It is no exaggeration to state that most of the FBI scandals of the last decade were born in the Hoover building headquarters, suggesting that the agency had long become top-heavy, politically weaponized, and deeply embedded in and compromised by the Washington apparat.
Former FBI Director, later appointed as special counsel, Robert Mueller ran a media-driven, 20-month, 40-million-dollar legal circus chasing the unicorn of “Russian collusion.” His left-wing legal team—replete with political conflicts of interest and scrubbed cell phones—was dubbed by the obsequious, giddy left-wing media as the “army,” “untouchables,” “all-stars,” “dream team,” and “hunter-killer teams.”
When called to testify about his investigation that had found no Russian-Trump collusion, Mueller implausibly denied any knowledge of the Steele dossier or FusionGPS. Yet they were arguably the very catalysts for his own special counsel appointment.
Two of his Washington FBI investigators were fired—the amorous Peter Strzok and Lisa Page—who had co-texted a deep personal antipathy toward Trump, the object of their investigations, and a desire to see him not become president, referred to as an “insurance policy.”
Note that either the FBI or Mueller’s team also mysteriously lost the requested recorded texts and calls on the duo’s phones.
Mueller’s successor, James Comey, outdid his predecessor’s congressionally sworn amnesia. Now in the news yet again for allegedly threatening the president with an “8647” tweet, Comey, while under oath to a congressional committee, stonewalled questioning by claiming he did not remember or could not answer on some 245 separate occasions.
Somehow in 2016, Comey—suddenly acting as both an investigator and a de facto federal prosecutor, despite clear conflicts of interest—managed to interfere in the 2016 campaign by finding Hillary Clinton likely guilty of, but somehow not indictable for, a number of felonies, from unlawfully transmitting classified files to destroying subpoenaed evidence.
Comey also lied to the president that he was not a subject of his own ongoing FBI-directed investigation of Trump.
Comey hired Christopher Steele as an informant and thereby helped to birth Steele’s fabrications.
Comey, through a friend, leaked to the New York Times his own private conversations with the president, recorded on his own FBI device no less.
He set up National Security Advisor Michael Flynn and bragged about how easily the naive and ambushed Flynn foolishly spoke to his FBI investigators without an attorney.
His successor, interim director Andrew McCabe, was a kindred leaker and political partisan.
He was fired for lying to federal investigators on four occasions, three times while under oath.
McCabe’s successor, Christopher Wray, infamously oversaw FBI agents spying on parents at school board meetings and supposedly also monitoring “radical traditionalist” Catholics.
Wray’s FBI conducted the now equally discredited Mar-a-Lago SWAT team raid on ex-President Trump’s personal residence. The performance-art operation was supposedly designed to find rumored mountains of improperly stored classified files. Despite all the leaks and fake news about troves of secret and classified dossiers, in the end, agents carted away 13,000 documents to find a mere 102 that were deemed classified—some .007 percent of what they confiscated.
In a now-infamous photo of the document trove released by the FBI, Trump’s classified papers were haphazardly strewn across the floor with nearby covers emblazoned “Secret” in red rubrics.
Agents later admitted the photos did not reflect the actual position of the documents when they had arrived, but were scattered over the floor and photographed by the FBI, along with the covers that they had brought along to the raid as photo props.
The FBI then showed far less interest in investigating Joe Biden’s three-decade-long illegal possession of classified documents, stored in at least three unsecured locations—and only revealed when the Biden White House had appointed a special counsel to investigate Trump for what Biden himself had done for far longer, with less security and with continued impunity.
Washington FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith was indicted and convicted of doctoring a FISA application document in order to deceive the federal court into granting surveillance over an innocent but framed Carter Page.
FBI chief counsel James A. Baker, likewise Washington-based, allegedly was deeply involved in trying to shop the spurious Steele dossier to the media on the eve of the 2016 election.
In general, the Washington FBI sought to warp both the 2016 and 2020 elections and might arguably have affected either outcome. Besides finding Hillary Clinton likely culpable and then improperly exonerating her, later in 2020, the FBI sat tight and silent on the Hunter Biden laptop after authenticating it as genuine.
Yet almost at the same time, kindred ex-intelligence authorities—the now notorious “51 former intelligence officials” —rounded up by former CIA interim director Mike Morrell at the prompt of then Biden aide and soon-to-be Secretary of State Antony Blinken—brazenly lied to the public that the laptop was a likely creation of Russian intelligence.
This disinformation campaign, launched by the 51 “former” intelligence agents, included some who were still on the federal payroll as contractors. Their intent was to arm Joe Biden in the upcoming October 2020 presidential debate with the lie that the incriminating laptop (again confirmed in secret by the FBI as genuine) was fabricated by the Russians. And the ruse worked perfectly in deceiving the American people on the eve of the election.
Note as well that the FBI embedded agents in social media concerns like Facebook and Twitter to partner in censoring news by deeming it “misinformation” and “disinformation.” Yet, in truth, their jobs in the so-called “Twitter Files” scandal were better defined as suppressing any news considered problematic to the then-2020 Biden campaign.
Many FBI agents later rotated over to high-paying social media companies after their collaboration, among them former FBI general counsel Baker, who was then subsequently fired by the new owner of Twitter, Elon Musk.
The list of ethical, moral, and legal misadventures at the top-heavy Washington FBI office could be easily expanded.
But suffice to say, the closure of the J. Edgar Hoover building and the dispersal of the toxic Washington-centric FB hierarchy is welcome news.
Hopefully, this historic closure will also mark the end of the most sordid and decade-long chapter in the history of a once-great agency.
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 14:20Since December's Trump-optimism-driven surge in Leading Economic Indicators (the first since last February), The Conference Board's headline index has decelerated rapidly with April data released today plunging 1.0% MoM - the biggest drop since March 2023...
Source: Bloomberg
Once again, Consumer Sentiment (cough UMich Democrats) and Stock Prices were the biggest negative contributors, while New Manufacturing orders (hard data) and Credit were the biggest positive contributors...
Source: Bloomberg
That dragged the total index level down to its lowest since February 2016...
Source: Bloomberg
“The U.S. LEI registered its largest monthly decline since March 2023, when many feared the US was headed into recession, which did not ultimately materialize,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.
“Most components of the index deteriorated. Notably, consumers’ expectations have become continuously more pessimistic each month since January 2025, while the contribution of building permits and average working hours in manufacturing turned negative in April.
Widespread weaknesses were also present when looking at six-month trends among the LEI’s components, resulting in a warning signal for growth.
However, while the six-month growth rate of the LEI went deeper into negative territory, it did not fall enough to trigger the recession signal.
The Conference Board currently forecasts US real GDP to grow by 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, with the bulk of the impact of tariffs likely to hit the economy in Q3.
Source: Bloomberg
So the economy is doomed (ish) because stocks and sentiment are down... because investors are pricing in a doomed economy...?
Perhaps the word 'leading' in this index is misleading...
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 14:00Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,
Goldman Sachs has increased its global oil demand forecast but maintained its price predictions for Brent crude and WTI for the current year, despite current trading values exceeding those projections.
The potential for a US-Iran nuclear deal and the progression of the tariff war are significant factors creating uncertainty in the oil market, influencing forecasts and potential price fluctuations.
Future oil prices could drop significantly if the tariff war worsens and OPEC Plus restores its previously cut oil supply, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.
Goldman Sachs analysts have revised their outlook for global oil demand upwards, now expecting growth of 600,000 barrels daily this year and 400,000 barrels daily in 2026.
The bank, however, maintained its oil price forecast at $60 per barrel of Brent crude and $56 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate for this year, Reuters reported, citing a new note.
Brent crude was trading at over $65 per barrel at the time of writing, and WTI was trading at over $62.
Goldman’s analysts expect the benchmarks to fall further next year, to $56 for Brent crude and $52 for WTI.
A big reason for the bearish outlook is the nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran that recently became a more distinct possibility than it was until now.
Last Thursday, President Trump the two sides were really close to sealing such a deal.
The news dealt a blow to oil prices.
Later updates, however, tamed any optimism as they revealed persistent differences between the two sides on what conditions they would accept. The U.S. side insists on Iran committing to stop any uranium enrichment activities. The Iranian side considers its uranium-enrichment activities non-negotiable.
However, the prospect of a shorter rather than longer tariff war has improved the outlook for global growth, which could offset any bearish supply effect stemming from a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by improving demand for crude, per Goldman.
This was the basis for their upward revision of demand for the second half of the year, or, as they put it, “Incorporating lower tariffs and higher GDP.”
On the other hand, if the tariff war drags on and comes to affect global economic growth in the physical world rather than the realm of forecast, the investment bank expects Brent could drop as far as $40 per barrel in late 2026.
For that to happen, OPEC+ must also bring back all the barrels it cut from its combined supply back in 2022, Goldman analysts noted.
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 13:45Update (1335ET): Confirming the optimistic readout from the Kremlin, President Trump just posted on TruthSocial stating that his call with Putin "went very well." (emphasis ours)
Just completed my two hour call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia.
I believe it went very well.
Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War.
The conditions for that will be negotiated between the two parties, as it can only be, because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of.
The tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent. If it wasn’t, I would say so now, rather than later.
Russia wants to do largescale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic “bloodbath” is over, and I agree.
There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is UNLIMITED. Likewise, Ukraine can be a great beneficiary on Trade, in the process of rebuilding its Country.
Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will begin immediately.
I have so informed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, President Emmanuel Macron, of France, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, of Italy, Chancellor Friedrich Merz, of Germany, and President Alexander Stubb, of Finland, during a call with me, immediately after the call with President Putin.
The Vatican, as represented by the Pope, has stated that it would be very interested in hosting the negotiations.
Let the process begin!
And cue the European leaders and US neocons fuming over the potential for peace.
* * *
Update(1300ET): Presidents Trump and Putin have ended their phone call, which lasted for more than two hours, according to RIA. This suggests some heavy lifting was done regarding peace in Ukraine, and restoring Washington-Moscow relations. Trump had reportedly phoned Zelensky just prior to speaking with Putin. It appears an overall 'positive' development, also given the emerging wire headlines:
But this Putin reference to "certain agreements" or conditions being reached will be the sticking point. Zelensky has repeatedly made clear "this is Ukraine's land" when it comes to the annexed four eastern territories and Crimea.
Very likely, Putin pressed this point with Trump - that Zelensky is refusing any level of compromise (which is precisely what Kiev is currently accusing Moscow of doing).
As we await the call readouts from both sides, Vice President JD Vance's latest remarks upon returning to the US from Rome lay out where things stand:
JD Vance:
— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 19, 2025
There's fundamental mistrust between Russia and the West. It's one of the things Trump thinks is frankly stupid, and we should be able to move beyond the mistakes that have been made in the past, but that takes two to tango. pic.twitter.com/o0UU9aSBOu
Meanwhile...
Guys, we are again allowed to admit that NATO's open door to Ukraine and integration with Kyiv was one of the causes of the war. Also that Russia is shaping its forces to counter NATO expansion. pic.twitter.com/jQZQ6Ca9CD
— Justin Logan (@JustinTLogan) May 19, 2025
* * *
President Trump is expected to hold a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, followed by a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky - after they were first announced Saturday.
Writing in all caps, the president posted over the weekend to Truth Social, "The subjects of the call with be, stopping the 'bloodbath' that is killing, on average, more than 5000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers a week, and trade."
He continued in the statement by saying "hopefully it will be a productive day, a ceasefire will take place, and this very violent war, a war that should have never happened, will end." His highly optimistic note ended with "God bless us all!!!" - again written in all caps.
Via AFP
Trump has further indicated he'll be in contact with "various" NATO leaders related to these ceasefire efforts, coming on heels of the Friday meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegations - the first such direct engagement since efforts at talks ceased within the opening months of 2022 and the war's start.
The NY Times has previewed:
The call, which Mr. Trump said would take place at 10 a.m. Eastern, would be the third known phone conversation between the two men since the American president’s second term began. The first two, which took place in February and March, were celebrated in Moscow as signs of weakening Western resolve to isolate and punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
And the Kremlin issued the following Monday:
"The conversation is important, taking into account the negotiations held in Istanbul," Peskov said. "As for the talks, we [in the Kremlin] have already said everything we could, we underscored the basic points," he added. "We will now wait for it. We will give the maximum information possible based on the results of the conversation," he stated.
There was little concrete which came out of the meeting, other than a new POW swap - which is to involve 1,000 captives returned on either side - and declarations that each side is open to meeting a gain.
Still, the warring sides are far apart in terms of conditions, with Zelensky having reasserted on Friday, "In all discussions – and I emphasize this – and this is my unwavering position – we do not legally recognize any of our temporarily occupied territories as Russian. This is the Ukrainian land."
Just ahead of the Putin-Zelensky calls at the White House on Monday:
.@zerohedge reporter gets the first question during today's White House press briefing.@cosgrove_iv does not disappoint: question about financing foreign wars, comments on the "Clinton body count," and further probing of the Jeffrey Epstein files. pic.twitter.com/YjXQBpNAK9
— Liberty Nation (@libertynation) May 19, 2025
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio revealed the US administration's thinking on how things are really going at this point. He reiterated to CBS News’ ‘Face the Nation’ on Sunday that the White House will not tolerate endless negotiations which simply drag the war and killing on further.
"On the one hand, we’re trying to achieve peace and end a very bloody, costly, and destructive war. So there’s some element of patience that is required," he began by acknowledging.
"On the other hand, we don’t have time to waste. There are a lot of other things happening in the world that we also need to be paying attention to. So we don’t want to be involved in this process of just endless talks. There has to be some progress, some movement forward," he then emphasized.
The US is currently examining competing ceasefire proposals offered by each side. "If those papers have ideas on them that are realistic and rational, then I think we know we’ve made progress," he said.
The following is reportedly among Moscow's top list of demands, which can be described as maximalist (at least from the West's perspective), per a recent Bloomberg report:
But Ukraine has rejected the Kremlin's demand of de-facto recognizing the loss of its territories. Zelensky has time and again vowed to fight on, despite mounting losses and serious manpower issues.
Getting Trump on side is not about Russia. UK/EU want the US bogged down in Ukraine, which means US bogged down in Europe, and US money continues to flow. They don't care about Ukraine, they care about the US remaining in Europe, invested in the globalist agenda.
— Alex Christoforou (@AXChristoforou) May 19, 2025
They… pic.twitter.com/p3mM1T7hDc
The White House is likely to latch on to anything positive regarding these talks that it can; however, President Trump has clearly been exerting pressure for more speedy resolution, and is growing impatient.
The Europeans are ready to slap more sanctions on Moscow, and Washington has also warned that this would essentially be plan B if Russia doesn't cooperate. But Russia's fresh maximalist demands will be a hard sell.
* * *
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Tyler Durden
Mon, 05/19/2025 - 13:40 Israel has enforced a nearly three-month blockade on humanitarian aid going into the Gaza Strip, amid reports that Hamas and criminal elements have been intercepting and stealing the aid, and then reselling it.
The Wall Street Journal reports Monday that "Israel will allow the resumption of limited aid deliveries to the Gaza Strip, ending a nearly three-month blockade that has depleted humanitarian supplies in the enclave as the military expands its operations there."
Pressure has been coming from Washington and international organizations for the ban on aid to be lifted, on new reports that famine is once again hitting the largely destroyed Palestinian enclave.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office first announced Sunday that "a basic quantity of food to be brought in" to avoid a starvation crisis. He has also declared his intent to take over all of the Gaza Strip.
via Associated Press
Interestingly, the statement said that a driving concern is not the plight of Gaza civilians, but that mass starvation could risk endangering the Israeli military campaign to annihilate the militant group Hamas.
Netanyahu is framing the move as necessary to keep up political support from Washington:
Netanyahu said U.S. senators he has known for years as supporters of Israel, "our best friends in the world", were telling him the scenes of hunger were draining vital support and bringing Israel close to a "red line, to a point where we might lose control".
"It is for that reason, in order to achieve victory, we have to somehow solve the problem," he said, in a message apparently addressed to far-right hardliners in his government who have insisted aid be denied to Gaza to stop it reaching Hamas.
So the new policy to allow aid in is a political ploy, but one that will indeed likely satisfy critics, for the time being at least.
Fresh reports out of the UN and World Health Organization (WHO) have sounded the alarm, saying nearly 500,000 people are at risk of starvation in Gaza.
"Populations across the Gaza Strip are at risk of famine as fighting has surged again, border crossings are still closed, and food is dangerously scarce," a UN statement says.
"Hunger and malnutrition have intensified sharply since all aid was blocked from entering on 2 March, reversing the clear humanitarian gains seen during the ceasefire earlier this year," the UN's World Food Program has said.
Unbelievable
— Motasem A Dalloul (@AbujomaaGaza) May 19, 2025
Happening now in Rafah..
Destroying the rubble.. Operation Gideon Chariot. pic.twitter.com/dZkAd1G2Xz
And the organization, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), projects that "an alarming 71,000 children and more than 17,000 mothers will need urgent treatment for acute malnutrition. A report states that "At the beginning of 2025, agencies estimated 60,000 children would need treatment."
The organization further warned that "Families in Gaza are starving while the food they need is sitting at the border." As it's believed that tens of thousands of Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants are still utilizing Gaza's vast tunnel network to fight the Israelis, the war looks to continue possibly for years to come.
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 13:05Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
GM once supported California’s 2035 EV target. It wisely has second thoughts...
In 2022, California Governor Gavin Newsom approved regulations banning the sale of new gasoline-powered cars and trucks by 2035. GM foolishly supported the idea.
I am pleased to report that sanity has prevailed. The Wall Street Journal reports GM Is Pushing Hard to Tank California’s EV Mandate
Hoot of the Day“We need your help!” GM said in an email it sent this past week to thousands of its white-collar employees. “Emissions standards that are not aligned with market realities pose a serious threat to our business by undermining consumer choice and vehicle affordability.”
GM, one of the biggest sellers of EVs in the U.S., is encouraging employees to use scripted talking points to lobby Senators. The goal is to nullify a 2022 California measure that would ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars and trucks by 2035, a mandate that has since been adopted by 11 other states. The Senate could vote as early as next week to revoke a waiver that allows California to set its own stricter tailpipe-emissions standards.
GM set its own internal goal of ending sales of nearly all gas-only vehicles by 2035 and initially supported the California target, while advocating for a uniform national standard.
But the EV market has taken a turn. Three years ago, U.S. automakers couldn’t keep up with demand; now EV sales are beginning to sputter. Discounts are drying up, car buyers are seeking lower-priced alternatives, and Congress is looking to roll back tax credits that for years have powered electric-vehicle sales.
GM abandoned a self-imposed target to build 400,000 electric vehicles by mid-2024, and last year the company said it would delay plans for a new Buick electric vehicle and push back the opening of an EV truck factory. Ford Motor and other automakers have similarly scaled back plans.
“GM believes in customer choice, and we continue to focus on offering the best and broadest portfolio of vehicles on the market,” the spokeswoman said.
The turn against California’s mandate has been bipartisan. When the U.S. House passed a bill identical to the Senate’s earlier this month, 35 Democrats supported the legislation, including two from California.
Rep. Laura Gillen, a Democrat from New York, one of the states to adopt the mandate, said she supports the goal of reducing emissions but that the timeline is “out of touch with reality” and an undue burden on consumers facing a cost-of-living crisis.
“If everybody in my district went out and got an EV, the grid could not accommodate that,” Gillen said.
GM now supports customer choice. Fancy that.
Republicans are using the Congressional Review Act (CRA) which allows Congress to review and potentially overturn federal agency rules.
The maneuver only needs a simple majority and is thus filibuster-proof. Thus, the CRA should pass the Senate easily.
There may be a legal challenge, but I expect Trump will prevail on this one if there is a challenge. If seven Democrats sign on, then this can pass by normal legislation.
Eleven states have adopted California’s mandate and if Democrats take the White House again, they may adopt more nonsensical EV rules.
So it’s best to get 60 votes. But 4 years of sanity is better than none.
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 12:45Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,
The Department of Defense has directed commanders to identify service members with a history of gender dysphoria who have not come forward under a new policy that bans transgender troops.
“Commanders who are aware of Service members in their units with gender dysphoria, a history of gender dysphoria, or symptoms consistent with gender dysphoria will direct individualized medical record reviews of such Service members to confirm compliance with medical standards” under the military’s readiness program, Jules W. Hurst III, a Pentagon official, wrote in a memorandum dated May 15.
President Donald Trump has said that people who express a “false ‘gender identity’” cannot meet the standards for military service, and defense officials later promulgated a new policy that bars troops who have or are experiencing gender dysphoria from serving.
At least some of the troops with gender dysphoria, which refers to when people believe they’re a gender that does not match their sex, are undergoing or have completed transgender procedures in an attempt to alter their gender..
The Supreme Court recently stayed a district court order that had been blocking the policy.
Officials said on May 8 that about 1,000 members have come forward to identify themselves as having gender dysphoria.
Active-duty troops have until June 6 to identify themselves as being unable to serve due to gender dysphoria. The deadline is July 7 for reserves.
During that period, military departments will seek to identify affected troops who choose not to identify themselves, a senior defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters in a call on May 15.
“Commanders who are aware of service members in their units who meet the criteria of this policy will direct individualized medical record reviews. Any individuals who meet the criteria of the policy and do not voluntarily identify themselves and go through the voluntary separation process will be processed involuntarily unless they are granted a waiver,” the official added later.
Troops who are involuntarily separated may lose certain benefits that they would receive if they come forward, according to the Department of Defense.
An estimated 4,200 troops have gender dysphoria. The force has about 2.1 million troops.
The military uses its readiness program to make sure troops are qualified and fit for duty. Medical evaluations are done through the program periodically, including an annual health screening.
When asked about concerns that commanders could abuse the process, the official told reporters in the call that leaders are confident in commanders’ exercising their discretion and protecting the privacy of troop health information.
“Any negative action that they would take to one of their assigned service members that would be retaliatory would be completely unacceptable regardless of whether it concerned this policy or any other policy,” the official added later.
Troops who are discharged under the new policy are eligible for up to $125,000 in separation payments, depending on their rank and how long they’ve been serving.
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 12:05The FBI has identified the suspect in Saturday's powerful car-bombing of a Palm Springs fertility clinic as 25-year-old Guy Edward Bartkus, a man who held an odd set of beliefs about humanity and other sentient life forms. Officials say Bartkus was fatally torn to shreds, and classified his attack as an act of terrorism.
The FBI says Bartkus, who embraced "pro-mortalism" and "anti-natalism," tried to livestream the bombing
While investigators are still working to fully confirm it was the work of Bartkus, they believe he foreshadowed his attack in a manifesto he posted to the internet, along with a 30-minute audio recording. Bartkus was an adherent to a strange philosophy called "pro-mortalism," which encourages the extinction of humanity and other sentient beings to preclude the suffering associated with life. Hand in hand with that belief goes Bartkus' embrace of "anti-natalism," which argues that nobody should have children -- a belief that bears directly on his targeting of a fertility clinic.
Doing his part to advance pro-mortalism: This hearty slab o' beef is believed to be the torso of Bartkus (via @_Mnimasworld)
In the half-hour-long audio file saved under the title "pre," the calmly-speaking and occasionally-chuckling narrator believed to be Bartkus says:
“Ooookay, I figured I would just make a recording explaining why I’ve decided to bomb an [in vitro fertilization] building or clinic. Basically, it just comes down to I’m angry that I exist and that, you know, nobody got my consent to bring me here. And I know what you're going to say: 'How could we have gotten your consent, because you didn't exist, blah, blah, blah.' Exactly the point. There's no way you can get consent to bring someone here, so don't fucking do it." ...
"Obviously, I'm very against [IVF]. It's extremely wrong. I mean, these are people who are having kids after they've sat there and thought about it. How much more stupid can it get?...I guess you can make the argument 'well at least they're thinking about it'...Yeah, that is something I guess, but at the same time, again, you still can't get the [infant's] goddam consent, you're not getting around that argument...basically, I'm anti-life. And IVF is kind of the epitome of pro-life ideology, so fuck IVF, fuck IVF clinics, and fuck the people that work for them, quite frankly."
BOMBING: This is an audio recording of Guy Edward Bartkus' manifesto. Bartkus was the Palm Springs Fertility Clinic Bomber. pic.twitter.com/WNtDgYGHVo
— @amuse (@amuse) May 18, 2025
The audio recording also likens giving birth to raping an unconscious woman, as neither the woman nor the unborn child is capable of granting consent. The speaker says he has some reluctance about the term "pro-mortalism," because some might misinterpret it as being sadistically "pro-dying;" he emphasizes that it means he's "pro-non-existence." The narrator argues that "parents are the real killers" because "they're the ones making you exist in the first place, which then guarantees a death." He says pro-mortalists encourage that guaranteed death to happen sooner than later so the individual "experience[s] less of life's bullshit."
The manifesto referred to the homicide of his best friend, someone identified as "Sophie." It seems Sophie shared Bartkus' beliefs: Investigators say she convinced her boyfriend to shoot her in the head as she slept. He was charged with second-degree murder. “We had agreed… if one of us died, the other would probably follow,” the manifesto read.
Investigators comb through the wreckage at the American Reproductive Centers clinic in Palm Springs (Reuters / David Swanson)
In its initial report on the bombing, the New York Times used four paragraphs to allude to the possibility that the bombing was the work of conservatives, noting that "many Christian conservatives who oppose abortion also oppose I.V.F. because they do not support the loss of embryos, which they consider people." Bartkus clearly didn't match the Times' roundabout suggestion. However, social media users trying to tether Bartkus to the "extreme left" seem almost as baseless. Indeed, there's no indication yet of Bartkus being aligned with any mainstream political movements or candidates.
He was dismembered when a powerful bomb in his silver 2010 Ford Fusion exploded around 11am local time Saturday -- when the American Reproductive Centers clinic was closed; four bystanders suffered minor injuries and none are hospitalized. While the clinic suffered major damage to its offices and patient-consultation spaces, the IVF lab and its stored embryos went unscathed. Investigators say Bartkus intended to livestream the explosion, going so far as to set up a tripod and camera. However, the video never uploaded to the web.
Bartkus, who lived about 60 miles away in Twentynine Palms, had been coping with depression and some sort of personal relationship struggles, according to law enforcement sources that spoke to NBC News. It's not yet been reported if, like so many other mentally-troubled people who lash out violently, Bartkus was taking SSRI antidepressant drugs. Neighbors told the Los Angeles Times they hadn't seen anyone in his residence for months. “It’s a bit unsettling to know our neighbor was doing something so evil," said Jeanette Hogan, who lives directly across the street.
Neighbors were evacuated when police executed a search warrant at Bartkus' home in Twentynine Palms (Gina Ferazzi via LA Times)
The suspect's 75-year-old father, Richard Bartkus, told KTLA 5 News that he hadn't seen his son in 11 years. He described him as having been a "smart, good kid" who'd set fire to the family home as he played with matches at an unspecified age. “After he had burned the house down, he started changing a little bit, he’d light fires,” his father said, choking back tears. “I was too strict for him, so he wanted to stay with Mom until the divorce came through. Mom was lenient.” He said his son was fascinated by making model rockets and smoke bombs -- a fascination he apparently put to work in building a powerful bomb used against the fertility clinic.
Authored by Jon Fleetwood via substack,
In a major victory for accountability and informed consent, the Texas House of Representatives passed HB 3441 yesterday, a bill that would allow Texans to sue vaccine manufacturers whose advertising leads to injury or harm.
The unprecedented move comes as CDC data show there have been an alarming 2,665,796 adverse events linked to vaccines since 1990, the vast majority related to COVID-19 jabs.
But if fewer than 1% of adverse events are reported - as a 2010 HHS-funded Harvard analysis confirms - the real number could exceed 266 million, or roughly 7.6 million per year, or 20,800 per day.
First filed in February, the new bill passed yesterday by a vote of 88–31, moving the legislation one step closer to becoming law.
The pioneering legislation boasts a whopping 79 brave sponsors, 74 Republicans and 5 Democrats.
The bill is spearheaded by Representatives Shelley Luther (R-62), Jeff Leach (R-67), Marc LaHood (R-121), Oscar Longoria (D-35), and Mike Schofield (R-132).
If you want this kind of bill passed in your state or at the federal level, you can find your local, state, and U.S. representatives here and let them know.
Texas House Bill 3441, titled “Relating to the liability of vaccine manufacturers that advertise a harmful vaccine,” holds pharmaceutical companies liable if:
They advertise a vaccine in Texas through paid promotion, and
That advertised vaccine causes injury or harm to an individual.
In short: if a vaccine manufacturer pushes a product through ads—and that product ends up causing harm—they can be sued for it in court.
The bill defines “advertising” broadly to include:
Television and radio ads
Print media and digital media
Product placements and influencer promotions
But excludes materials inside a clinical setting or direct conversations between doctors and patients.
Legal RamificationsHB 3441 creates a clear legal pathway for Texans to bring a civil action against vaccine manufacturers—up to three years after the injury occurs.
If the injured party prevails in court, the manufacturer is required to pay:
Actual damages
Court costs
Attorney’s fees
For decades, vaccine manufacturers have enjoyed near-total immunity from liability thanks to federal protections under the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986 and the PREP Act.
But HB 3441 cuts through that shield—not by targeting the product itself, but by going after the promotional lies used to sell it.
Cleverly, the bill’s authors appear to be leveraging the advertising hook as a legal workaround to federal immunity, holding companies accountable for the claims they make, not merely the product they produce.
This represents a massive legal shift.
If HB 3441 becomes law, Texas could become the first state in the nation to strip vaccine manufacturers of their immunity—at least when it comes to deceptive advertising that leads to harm.
What’s NextThe bill is now classified as “engrossed,” meaning it’s cleared the House and is headed to the Texas Senate for consideration. If it passes the Senate and is signed by the governor, it will go into effect on September 1, 2025.
Bottom LineThe message from Texas lawmakers is clear: If you lied in your ad and your shot injured someone - get ready to pay up.
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 11:25Three weeks after widespread power grid failures across Portugal and Spain, triggered by unreliable solar and wind power, Germany appears to be sharply recalibrating its energy stance.
In a notable policy shift, the new conservative government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz has reversed its longstanding opposition to nuclear power. The move reflects a growing understanding in Berlin that overreliance on unreliable solar and wind power generation poses serious risks to economic stability and energy security. The shift also signals a broader return to common-sense energy policymaking in Europe, with nuclear power increasingly viewed as critical in France in achieving reliable, low-carbon power generation.
The Financial Times reports that German officials have informed Paris they will no longer oppose French efforts to have nuclear energy recognized as equivalent to renewables in EU legislation. This marks a significant policy shift, considering former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had firmly opposed treating nuclear power on the same level as solar and wind in the EU's framework for achieving net zero by 2050.
"The Germans are telling us: we will be very pragmatic on the issue of nuclear power," an anonymous French diplomat told the FT, which was involved in the talks with the Germans. The person said this means that "all the biases against nuclear power, which still remain here and there in EU legislation, will be removed."
"This will be a sea-change policy shift," said a German official.
Guntram Wolff, a senior fellow at think-tank Bruegel, said, "It's a welcome rapprochement that will make the topic of energy easier in the EU," adding, "Politically, Merz is also thinking about the nuclear umbrella."
Berlin's reversal on nuclear power comes three weeks after solar and wind collapsed the power grids across Portugal and Spain.
Europe's dangerous and radical shift to unreliable net-zero energy has been nothing short of a disaster and an embarrassment for the far-left liberals high in their castles in Brussels.
Merz has clearly recognized the urgent need to reverse degrowth net-zero policies. He also understands the strategic urgency of revitalizing Franco-German cooperation—a prerequisite for unlocking stalled EU-level decision-making under former Chancellor Scholz.
"When France and Germany agree, it is much easier for Europe to move forward," said Lars-Hendrik Röller, a professor at Berlin-based ESMT business school who was chief economic adviser to former Chancellor Angela Merkel, adding, "While several challenges remain, I believe this issue will be solved."
Last week, FT obtained a letter sent to the European Commission by ministers from 12 European member states explaining that it was "imperative" that Brussels acknowledge the "complementary nature of nuclear and renewable energy sources."
The new Franco-German policy shift on energy is critical for Europe to get its house in order, considering NatGas prices have surged since the Ukraine-Russia war, making manufacturing uncompetitive on global markets because inputs have driven up prices of end products (such as automobiles). Solar and wind trends have also created instability in the power grid, which is a national security threat.
It's encouraging to see that Germany has finally acknowledged what has long been clear: a stable, reliable path to net-zero requires nuclear power. ZeroHedge readers have been well ahead of this theme since December 2020. More details here...
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 11:05
There have been many winners and losers over the past few months. Perhaps none have been revealed for having furious, unbridled power than the US equity markets. That’s right, it was not Carville’s Bond Market that made the White House cry “Uncle!” but rather, it was the US equities market.
Its naked power and abilities to inspire fear, panic, and even terror are unsurpassed. Bonds might drive the intellectual debate around policy, but it’s the equity markets that politicians pay closest attention to…
Allow me to share three historical examples:
October 2008: The month following Lehman Brothers’ September 2008 blowup, then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified to the Committee on the Budget on Monday, October 20, 2008. He reminded the House members that the Federal Reserve’s charter was to maintain high employment and low inflation. The Fed, he reminded us, was not authorized to manage the stability of the financial system or keep credit markets flowing and unfrozen; it was not the FOMC’s charge to address any of the myriad issues that had endangered the financial system’s functioning.
A fiery speech from someone (was it Ron or Rand Paul?) led to a vote against Bernanke’s funding and authority request. He would not be getting the tools necessary to unfreeze credit and keep the banking system operating.
Sayeth Mr. Market: “Hold My Beer.”
The sell-off began immediately after the vote;1 over the next five trading days, the S&P 500 fell 13.9%, the Nasdaq was right behind it at 13.5%, and the Russell 2000 crashed 18%. ALL IN ONE WEEK.
Congress reconvened and passed both the necessary authority and the dollars that the Fed chairman had requested. By November 4th, all of the losses had been made up and then some.
Don’t fix the credit markets, and put corporate revenue and payrolls at risk?
FAFO.
March 2020: The first hint I had that something was amiss occurred in February 2020. My sister and I were looking at assisted living facilities for my mom. “As long as I’m out here, why don’t we swing by Target to pick up a few things.” She was visiting the ‘burbs from the New York City apartment they moved to once the kids went off to college.
Target was out of hand sanitizer, many cleaning products, Lysol, and rubbing alcohol; they were completely sold out of bleach, and, of course, there wasn’t a single piece of toilet paper to be found. (Strange things were afoot at the Circle-K).
A few weeks later, Congress was debating the renaming of a Washington, D.C. library. The back-and-forth on C-SPAN was as tedious as it was unproductive. (Stalemate, nothing done.) It reminds one of the old joke, “Why are academic politics so vicious? Because the stakes are so low and the issues so unimportant.”
March 11, 2020, a day after the Congress critters couldn’t agree on renaming a library, it became apparent that this was no ordinary flu. There were numerous events throughout the day that were concerning, but once the NBA game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the visiting Utah Jazz was cancelled — Jazz center Rudy Gobert had tested positive for COVID-19 — things got bad fast.
All hell broke loose the next day. This set the stage for the lockdowns to begin in earnest and tipped the global economy into shutdown mode.
Then came one of the fastest sell-offs of all time, a decline of 34% in just 17 trading days.
Congress, under then-President Trump (45), soon passed the CARES Act. It was the single largest fiscal stimulus at 10% of GDP since World War 2. This $2 trillion legislation was soon followed by the CARES Act 2 ($800 billion), also under Trump. Not long after President Biden (46) was elected, he passed the CARES Act 3, another trillion-dollar bill.2
That fiscal stimulus turned what looked like another GFC crash into a robust recovery and rally once the government acted. Markets rose 69% from their March 2020 pandemic lows to the end of 2020; they gained another 28% in 2021.
Feel free to debate renaming libraries or taking down statues all you want, but close the global economy in a way that dramatically slashes corporate revenue and profits without addressing the impact of what you’ve done?
Good luck, Chuck!
April 2025: President Trump campaigned on instituting tariffs; instituted a variety of tariffs in his first term; called himself “Tariff Man,” and said, “Tariffs are the most beautiful word in the dictionary.”
So why was the market so surprised by the April 2nd “Liberation Day” announcements? Two reasons: First was the sheer size and scope of the tariffs. But don’t overlook the opaque and ham-fisted communications strategy that accompanied them.
Prior tariffs had been in a 10-20% range; 100% tariffs applied to 182 countries worldwide – and Antarctica! – It was simply a bridge too far. Markets are a future discounting mechanism for corporate revenues and profits, and the market calculated that a giant U.S. consumer VAT tax would reduce corporate revenues 10 to 20%, and profits 20 to 30% (or more).
Hence, the markets were priced at least 20% too high. A week later, the S&P 500 was down 12.4% from its March highs; the Nasdaq 100 sold off 13.6%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 was hit the hardest -14.1%.
This sent Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent into the Oval Office, pleading with POTUS to pause the tariffs for 90 days. If not, “You’ll be the next Hoover – or worse.”
The recovery began immediately. Five weeks later, all the post-liberation day losses had been recovered.
~~~
While everybody has been focused on the size of the tariffs, let’s discuss the communication strategy. A “compare & contrast” with how the Federal Reserve communicates changes in interest rate policy is instructive.
The Federal Reserve announces new policy leanings three to six months in advance. They discuss it each meeting, notifying stock and bond markets that a change is coming. They review the various data series they’re relying on (PCE vs CPI), they discuss changes in the economy, and we see the dot plot shift during a few meetings prior.
Then, a month or so before, the seven members of the Board of Governors and the twelve Federal Reserve district Presidents fan out to speak in various public forums. They speak at the Petroleum Club of Houston and the Economic Club in New York; they present at Stanford and Yale and everywhere in between.
Say what you will about the Federal Reserve, but they are transparent and informative and do not surprise markets.
“Hell hath no fury like a market surprised.”
Look, the rules here are pretty straightforward:
Show respect to the collective insight of the market when it comes to setting prices, integrating risk factors, and summarizing the crowd’s collective psychology. Recognize that current equity prices reflect the probabilities of corporate revenues and profits a year or so out, a future discounting mechanism times some multiple, which itself is driven primarily (but not exclusively) by collective investor/crowd sentiment.
If you imagine yourself more powerful than Mr. Market, take just him on directly. Imagine yourself as smarter, more powerful, able to direct events with greater alacrity and influence.
Surprise the markets and watch the results. You will quickly learn who is the market’s bitch.
James Carville famously said, “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”
Perhaps in his day, he was right.
But me?
When I die and am reincarnated, I want to come back as the U.S. equities markets…
“The stock market remains undefeated.”
See also:
The Stock Market Remains Undefeated: AN Interview with Barry Ritholtz
Wall Street Breakfast
Seeking Alpha, May 11, 2025
Previously:
What Are the Best & Worst-Case Tariff Scenarios? (April 15, 2025)
The Consequences of Chaos (April 7, 2025)
7 Increasing Probabilities of Error (February 24, 2025)
Why Macro Forecasting Is So Hard Impossible (April 24, 2025)
__________
1. Some years later, Bernanke disclosed that he had sent his wife to the bank to withdraw as much cash as she could before the system crashed completely.
2. President Biden also drove several other important fiscal legislation – the Infrastructure Bill, Semiconductor Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and others. These were primarily 10-year spending bills, reflecting his legislative priorities and/or attempt to Fight the spiking inflation caused by all three cares act fiscal stimulus. I don’t consider these a panic reaction to equity prices.
The post The Stock Market Remains Undefeated appeared first on The Big Picture.
Despte all the doomsaying and blame-scaping following Moody's downgrade late on Friday night, the market has well and truly shrugged off the FUD (for now).
US equity markets have ripped higher from the cash open with The Dow erasing all of the losses sine Friday's cash close...
2Y Treasury yields are now lower on the day also...
As we detailed here and here, this is not the end of the world.
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 10:24As DB's Jim Reid writes in his weekly preview, "in terms of what the market has been through in recent weeks we could all do with a lie down and there are some hopes of that this week given the scarcity of front line data. However as we know the headlines will keep coming, especially with regards to trade."
Sure enough, it‘s likely that fiscal developments in Washington will take center stage with the House expected to vote on its reconciliation package this week just as Moody's removed the US's last remaining triple-A rating late on Friday night. As DB's economists discussed last week, though the specific components of additional tax cuts on top of the TCJA extension differed from what they had previously outlined, the JCT score of the Ways and Means mark-up was largely in line with top-line deficit assumptions. Assuming House Republicans are able to resolve their outstanding policy disagreements and vote on the tax package this week, the Senate will then start to mark up the bill, where even more policy disagreements await. One thing stands out though, and that is that at this stage there are no signs of any serious deficit restraint.
The flash global PMIs for May released on Thursday will be the main data focal point this week given that it should fully cover a period of trade uncertainty. European numbers are expected to edge up with US numbers broadly flat. Elsewhere inflation in Canada (tomorrow), the UK (Wednesday) and Japan (Friday - preview here) will be of note. Other things to watch are the RBA decision tomorrow, where DB expect a 25bps cut (preview here), the account of the April ECB decision, the German Ifo and US jobless claims, all on Thursday.
This week’s jobless claims corresponds to payrolls survey week so it will allow banks to refine their current forecast for May. The full day-by-day week ahead is at the end as usual but there’s not a lot of high profile releases. There are though plenty of central bank speakers and these are also highlighted in that calendar. Many are speaking at the Atlanta Fed's annual Financial Markets Conference in Amelia Island, Florida which starts today through to Thursday. Other things to note are the UK-EU summit will be in London today. Then tomorrow, G7 finance ministers and central bankers convene in Canada (through May 22) and the EU's foreign and defence ministers meet in Brussels.
Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events
Monday May 19
Tuesday May 20
Wednesday May 21
Thursday May 22
Friday May 23
Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data releases this week are initial jobless claims on Thursday and new home sales on Friday. There are many speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including Chair Powell, Vice Chair Jefferson, and Governors Kugler and Cook.
Monday, May 19
Tuesday, May 20
Wednesday, May 21
Thursday, May 22
Friday, May 23
Source: BofA, Goldman
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 10:15By Philip Marey, Senior US strategist at Rabobank
On the same day that the fiscal hawks among the House Republicans blocked their own party’s tax and spending bill because it pushes up the budget deficit in the short run, Moody’s downgraded US government debt from Aaa to Aa1. Moody’s said that expanding budget deficits mean US government borrowing will rise at an accelerating rate, pushing interest rates up over the long term. In fact, Moody’s didn’t believe that any current budget proposals under consideration by lawmakers would do anything significant to reduce the persistent gap between government spending and revenues. According to the rating agency, successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs.
In November 2023, Moody’s lowered the US rating outlook to negative from stable while affirming the nation’s rating at Aaa, so the downgrade was just a matter of time. On Friday, Moody’s shifted its outlook on US debt to stable, noting the nation retains exceptional credit strength such as the size, resilience and dynamism of its economy and the role of the US dollar as global reserve currency. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in Meet the Press, on Sunday, said that Moody’s was a lagging indicator and that this has been caused by the Biden administration. After the downgrade, US treasury yields jumped from about 4.44% to almost 4.50% on Friday. This morning, it climbed further to 4.52%. Moody’s is the last of the three big rating agencies to downgrade US debt. Fitch downgraded the US in August 2023 by one level to AA+, and S&P was the first major credit agency to strip the US of its AAA rating back in 2011. Moody’s downgrade does not tell markets anything they did not know and in fact, recent movements in US treasury yields and the US dollar may be of more concern than the official downgrade by a rating agency.
Earlier on Friday, five Republican members of the House Budget Committee voted against advancing the “one big, beautiful bill”, four because they think it front-loads tax cuts in the next few years and delays spending cuts, causing a rise in the budget deficit in the short run. They want bigger cuts in social programs and a faster removal of clean-energy tax credits. On Sunday, the House Budget Committee resumed its session and finally approved the measure for floor action. The Republicans still hope to get the bill through the full House of Representatives before Memorial Day (May 26). Trump wants the bill passed by both the House and the Senate by Independence Day (July 4).
Week ahead
Today, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the US will be published. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks at the Atlanta Fed's "Financial Intermediation In Transition" conference in Florida. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson And Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan give keynote remarks at the same event. Probably more relevant for monetary policy is Bostic’s interview on Bloomberg TV today. In an interview released on Friday, Bostic said he expected only one rate cut this year, because the uncertainty about the economic outlook is unlikely to resolve itself quickly, and tariffs may put upward pressure on inflation. Elsewhere, New York Fed President John Williams speaks in a moderated conversation at an event organized by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will take part in a moderated Q&A at the University of Minnesota.
On Tuesday, the German PPI and the Canadian CPI for April will be released. Euro zone consumer confidence for May is also scheduled. ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch delivers a keynote speech, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone appears in pre-recorded video interview, and ECB's Knot presents DNB's Financial Stability Overview. Across the channel, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill also speaks. Across the pond, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin gives a speech at the Richmond Fed's Investing in Rural America Conference. Boston Fed President Susan Collins will host a Fed Listens event and offer brief remarks, but no discussion of current monetary policy and the outlook. More interesting is St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem’s speech on the economy and monetary policy at the Economic Club of Minnesota, including a Q&A.
On Wednesday, we get Japan’s trade balance for April, and the UK CPI and RPI for April. The ECB's Guindos presents the Financial Stability Review and ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane discusses "Negative interest rates and the impact of monetary policy," perhaps a bit academic at this time. ECB Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva speaks at an event near Madrid. In Florida, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack participate in a panel discussion at the "Financial Intermediation In Transition" conference. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will participate in a Fed Listens event.
On Thursday, a lot of survey data for May will be published: the German Ifo index, the HCOB PMIs for manufacturing and services for the Euro zone and individual countries, and the S&P Global PMIs for manufacturing and services for the UK and the US. We also get US initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 17, and US existing home sales for April. The ECB publishes its account of the April 16-17 policy meeting.
We also get a lot of central bank speakers. Starting with the ECB, Governor Robert Holzmann delivers opening remarks at the OeNB conference on "Monetary policy and structural tectonic shifts." The ECB’s Vujcic delivers an introductory presentation on the topic: "In Uncharted Waters: Macroeconomic Prospects in the Conditions of a Trade War." ECB Executive Board member Frank Elderson gives a speech on World Biodiversity Day in Leiden, the Netherlands. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos and Spanish central-bank head Jose Luis Escriva speak at a conference on “Global Challenges for a New Era in Economics, Geopolitics.” Finally, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel holds a press conference with the German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil in Banff, Canada.
On behalf of the BoE, Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaks on a panel on "climate liquidity crisis – the rising financial risks of climate change," BoE rate-setter Swati Dhingra speaks on a panel titled "Made in the UK: trade and productivity in British firms 2005-2022," and BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill delivers keynote speech at Austrian central bank conference mentioned earlier.
On Friday, the ECB’s Philip Lane holds a lecture on “Inflation and disinflation in the euro area” at the European University Institute in Florence. On the other side of the Atlantic, Canadian retail sales for March and US new home sales for April will be published. New York Fed President John Williams will give keynote remarks at a New York Fed event. He will have a prepared text and there is a Q&A. By the end of the week, the House Republicans should pass their tax and spending bill in order to meet their self-imposed deadline.
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 10:05Late last Wednesday night, the Missouri Republican-controlled legislature overrode the will of the state’s voters by repealing the paid sick leave portion of Proposition A, a ballot measure passed with 58% support in the 2024 election. This short-sighted decision is a step backward for Missouri’s working families and a violation of the democratic process.
Workers will briefly enjoy the benefits of paid sick leave before it is taken away. On May 1, workers started earning one hour of paid sick leave for every 30 hours worked, and they will continue to accrue leave until the repeal takes effect on August 28. Within this period, someone working a full-time schedule would have earned 24 hours of sick leave. It is not immediately clear if those hours will be available for a workers’ use after August 28. Additionally, the legislation also amends the part of Proposition A that raised the minimum wage to $15 an hour and indexed it to inflation. While the minimum wage will remain at $15 an hour (where it has been since January 1), it will no longer be indexed to inflation—meaning inflation will eat away at the value of the state minimum wage in future years unless lawmakers (or voters) take action.
This legislation will cause meaningful harm to working families in Missouri. The Missouri Budget Project estimated that 728,000 Missouri private-sector workers did not have paid sick leave prior to the passage of Proposition A. Workers without paid sick days are mostly working in low-wage jobs, and Black and Hispanic workers are disproportionately overrepresented in the low-wage workforce.
The lack of paid sick leave erodes working families’ economic security and needlessly spreads illness. As EPI noted earlier this year, paid sick leave laws improve public health by reducing the spread of illness, and their costs to businesses are extremely modest—generally requiring no measurable change to business practices. Paid sick leave reduces job separation rates among women, which is good for family stability and suggests paid leave creates a more level playing field for all workers. EPI reports that “paid sick leave policies allow workers to not only maintain their employment but also add work hours, suggesting that such policies function as work support for workers earning low wages.”
This is not the first time Missouri’s legislature has rolled back benefits for workers that were already in place. In 2017, legislators undid St Louis’s local minimum wage, which had been set at $10 an hour, meaning the minimum wage reverted to the state minimum of $7.70 an hour after four months. Additionally, in 2021, Missouri legislators tried to block a voter-approved expansion of Medicaid only to be blocked by a judge.
The Missouri legislature’s repeated efforts to thwart the clearly expressed will of the voters is an example of the increasingly common practice of GOP-led states attempting to limit the capacity of voters to enact pro-worker changes through ballot measures. This follows a slew of progressive policy measures passed by referendum in 2024, including minimum wage increases and paid sick leave measures in Alaska and Missouri, expanded abortion rights in seven states (also including Missouri), and rejections of school vouchers in Colorado, Kentucky, and Nebraska.
This decision is a slap in the face to the 1.7 million Missourians who voted for the ballot measure in November 2024, and to all working families in the state. It is bad policy that will harm Missourians, provide no help to businesses, and further demonstrate that the Missouri legislature is not enacting policies that support working people’s interests.
Authored by Stuart Liess via The Epoch Times,
The United States’ highest court this week seemed divided over whether lower court judges had overstepped their authority in blocking the Trump administration’s attempts to limit birthright citizenship.
Federal judges had put a nationwide block on President Donald Trump’s attempt to remove automatic citizenship status from children born in the United States to immigrants with noncitizen status.
The question at hand is whether the federal judges were allowed to do this. The Trump administration argues they do not, and have overstepped their jurisdiction in this matter.
The decision will also determine the limits of presidential power and whether a president can make such decisions, which will then determine the authority of judges in blocking Trump’s agenda on a much broader level in other cases where he is facing legal challenges.
The United States’ governance system is based on a series of checks and balances where the president enforces laws that Congress has made, and the Supreme Court interprets them and can even overrule them if it deems the laws unconstitutional.
Since Inauguration Day, Trump has signed 151 executive orders, which are directives by the president ordering the government to take specific actions. Their limitations, however, are that they cannot overrule existing federal law or statutes created by Congress.
President Joe Biden signed 162 executive orders during his term, and President Barack Obama signed 277 executive orders during his eight years of office. Trump signed a total of 220 during his entire first term.
Critics of Trump argue that he is overstepping his presidential authority on a number of decisions.
The president declared a national emergency on Jan. 20, vowing to solve the country’s illegal immigration crisis and fulfilling one of his campaign promises to stop an “invasion” at the border.
Trump has vowed to end “birth tourism,” in which he says illegal immigrants are giving birth in this country so that the children will be U.S. citizens.
According to Pew Research Center, the illegal immigrant population was at a 15-year high of 11 million in 2022, while border encounters have been soaring in recent years.
U.S. southern border apprehensions reached a high of 370,883 in December 2023, before dropping in 2024, according to Customs and Border Protection data.
The latest data recorded an 88 percent drop from the previous year, with 29,238 encounters in April this year falling from 247,929 around the same time in 2024.
Constitutional ReinterpretationThe 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution was ratified in 1868 in the aftermath of the Civil War, addressing the citizenship rights of American-born former slaves.
Then in 1898, the Supreme Court ruled in favour of Wong Kim Ark, who was born in the United States but was denied reentry after leaving to visit China.
The justices said a child born in the United States became a citizen at birth. This set the precedent for birthright citizenship.
The United States is one of about 30 countries that currently offer automatic citizenship by birth. Neighbouring Canada and Mexico do the same.
Trump argues that the amendment was misinterpreted, and the act of birthright citizenship doesn’t necessarily apply to all children born in the United States, particularly immigrants who entered unlawfully or people on a temporary visa.
The statement from the Constitution in question reads: “All persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”
The president has argued that the phrase “the jurisdiction thereof” should be interpreted as meaning that the person has sworn allegiance to the country, and to qualify, one parent would need to be a U.S. citizen or a lawful permanent resident.
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 09:46
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