Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.The post Quick Thoughts on AI and Electricity appeared first on CEPR.
The Downward Arrow Technique, developed by Dr. David Burns, is a powerful CBT tool used to uncover core beliefs by exploring deeper meanings behind negative thoughts.
1.1 Overview of the Downward Arrow TechniqueThe Downward Arrow Technique is a cognitive-behavioral tool used to explore and identify core beliefs underlying negative thoughts. By asking probing questions, it helps individuals uncover deeper meanings and assumptions driving their emotions and behaviors. This method is particularly effective in CBT, enabling therapists and clients to drill down through layers of thoughts to reveal unconscious beliefs. The technique is often complemented by worksheets, which guide users through structured exercises to document and analyze their thoughts systematically. It is a practical approach for understanding and addressing underlying cognitive patterns.
1.2 Importance of the Downward Arrow Technique in CBTThe Downward Arrow Technique is a cornerstone in CBT, enabling individuals to identify and challenge underlying core beliefs that drive negative thought patterns. By uncovering these beliefs, it facilitates meaningful cognitive restructuring, leading to lasting emotional and behavioral change. The technique’s structured approach, often paired with worksheets, makes it a practical tool for therapists and clients alike. Its effectiveness lies in its ability to connect surface-level thoughts to deeper, often unconscious beliefs, fostering insight and personal growth in the therapeutic process.
The Downward Arrow Technique is a CBT tool developed by Dr. David Burns to explore deeper meanings of negative thoughts, helping uncover core beliefs and assumptions.
2.1 Definition and OriginThe Downward Arrow Technique is a cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) method designed to identify and challenge underlying negative beliefs. Originated by Dr. David Burns, it involves probing questions to uncover core beliefs. This technique helps individuals explore the deeper meanings behind their thoughts, revealing unconscious assumptions that drive emotions and behaviors. By systematically questioning the implications of negative thoughts, it guides users toward understanding their belief systems, making it a valuable tool in therapy and personal growth.
2.2 Key Concepts and PrinciplesThe Downward Arrow Technique relies on Socratic questioning to explore the underlying meanings of negative thoughts. It systematically probes for deeper implications, helping individuals identify core beliefs. Key principles include uncovering unconscious assumptions, challenging negative thought patterns, and understanding how beliefs influence emotions and behaviors. This method emphasizes self-reflection and awareness, guiding users to connect surface-level thoughts to deeper, often hidden convictions. By repeating probing questions, it reveals the cascading effects of thoughts, making it a powerful tool for restructuring beliefs in CBT and personal development.
The Downward Arrow Technique helps identify core beliefs, challenge negative thoughts, and enhance self-awareness, providing a structured approach for cognitive restructuring in CBT.
3.1 Identifying Core BeliefsThe Downward Arrow Technique is a valuable tool for identifying core beliefs by probing beneath surface-level thoughts. Through repeated questioning, it reveals deeply held convictions about oneself, others, and the world. Worksheets guide users to explore these beliefs systematically, helping them understand how they influence emotions and behaviors. This process is particularly effective in CBT, as it bridges the gap between conscious thoughts and unconscious assumptions, enabling individuals to address the root causes of their distress. Regular practice enhances self-awareness and fosters meaningful change.
3.2 Challenging Negative ThoughtsThe Downward Arrow Technique is a potent method for challenging negative thoughts by exposing their underlying implications. By repeatedly questioning the meaning of these thoughts, individuals can uncover their deeper, often unconscious beliefs. This process encourages cognitive restructuring, helping to identify and dispute unhelpful patterns. Worksheets provide a structured way to document and analyze these thoughts, fostering a clearer understanding of their emotional impact. Through this exploration, individuals can challenge distortions and develop more balanced perspectives, ultimately reducing emotional distress and promoting mental well-being. This technique is particularly effective in CBT settings.
3;3 Enhancing Self-AwarenessThe Downward Arrow Technique significantly enhances self-awareness by guiding individuals to explore the deeper meanings behind their thoughts. Through structured probing, it illuminates core beliefs that may be driving emotions and behaviors. Worksheets facilitate this journey, offering a clear path to uncover hidden assumptions and beliefs. Increased self-awareness empowers individuals to recognize patterns, challenge unhelpful beliefs, and develop a more compassionate understanding of themselves. This heightened insight is crucial for personal growth and emotional resilience, making the technique a valuable tool in both therapy and self-directed practice.
The technique involves repeatedly asking probing questions to uncover core beliefs, starting with surface thoughts and exploring deeper meanings. Worksheets guide the structured process effectively.
4.1 Step-by-Step ProcessThe Downward Arrow Technique begins with identifying a negative thought, such as “I’m a failure.” The next step is to ask, “What does this mean about me?” This is repeated for each subsequent thought, drilling down to uncover deeper beliefs. For example, if the response is “I’m inadequate,” the follow-up might be, “What would happen if you were inadequate?” This process continues until core beliefs are revealed, allowing for cognitive restructuring and challenging of these beliefs. Worksheets often include columns to document each thought and the corresponding questions, providing a structured format for this exploration. The goal is to move from surface-level thoughts to underlying assumptions, enabling individuals to examine and modify unhelpful patterns of thinking. By systematically probing each thought, the technique helps individuals gain insight into the root causes of their distress, facilitating meaningful change and personal growth.
4.2 Socratic Questioning MethodThe Socratic Questioning Method in the Downward Arrow Technique involves posing probing questions to explore underlying beliefs. Therapists or individuals ask open-ended questions like, “What does this thought mean about you?” or “Why would that be so bad?” This encourages self-reflection and helps uncover deeper beliefs. The process is non-judgmental, fostering insight and awareness. By systematically challenging surface-level thoughts, individuals can identify and question core beliefs, promoting cognitive restructuring and personal growth. Worksheets often guide this process, ensuring structured exploration and reflection.
4.3 Identifying Core Beliefs Through Probing QuestionsProbing questions are central to the Downward Arrow Technique, guiding individuals to uncover core beliefs. Starting with a negative thought, repeated inquiries like, “What does this mean about you?” or “Why is that significant?” help reveal deeper beliefs. This method challenges surface-level thoughts, enabling individuals to recognize and question underlying assumptions. Worksheets often structure this process, ensuring systematic exploration. By addressing these core beliefs, individuals can reframe negative thought patterns and work toward cognitive restructuring and emotional relief.
The Downward Arrow Technique is widely applied in CBT to address anxiety, depression, and personal growth. It enhances self-awareness and helps individuals challenge negative thought patterns effectively.
5.1 Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT)The Downward Arrow Technique is integral to CBT, aiding therapists in uncovering core beliefs that drive emotions and behaviors. By probing surface thoughts, it reveals deeper beliefs, fostering cognitive restructuring. This method, developed by Dr. David Burns, is often combined with Socratic questioning to guide clients towards self-discovery. Worksheets are commonly used to document and explore these beliefs systematically, making it a practical tool for both therapists and individuals seeking to understand and challenge negative thought patterns effectively in a structured manner.
5.2 Anxiety and Depression ManagementThe Downward Arrow Technique is widely used in managing anxiety and depression by helping individuals identify and challenge underlying core beliefs. It enables clients to explore how negative thoughts contribute to distress. By systematically probing these beliefs, the technique fosters awareness and encourages cognitive restructuring. Worksheets often accompany this method, providing a structured way to document and analyze thoughts. This approach helps reduce symptoms of anxiety and depression by addressing their root causes, promoting long-term emotional well-being and resilience.
5.3 Personal Growth and DevelopmentThe Downward Arrow Technique supports personal growth by fostering self-awareness and insight into underlying beliefs. By exploring these beliefs, individuals can challenge negative patterns and develop a more balanced perspective. This process encourages emotional resilience and mindfulness, promoting overall well-being. Worksheets guide users to reflect on their thoughts systematically, aiding in long-term personal development and self-improvement. The technique helps individuals move beyond surface-level issues, enabling them to cultivate a deeper understanding of themselves and their potential for positive change.
A worksheet guides users to systematically explore thoughts, identifying core beliefs through sequential questions. It helps organize reflections, making the process structured and accessible for deeper insight.
6.1 Structure and DesignThe worksheet typically includes sections for recording initial thoughts, probing questions, and identifying core beliefs. It may start with a situation description, followed by sequential questions like “What does this mean about me?” to uncover deeper beliefs. The design ensures clarity and flow, guiding users through the process step-by-step. Additional columns may be included for alternative thoughts and actionable steps, promoting reflection and practical application.
6.2 Key Questions to IncludeEssential questions in the worksheet guide users to explore deeper meanings of their thoughts. Common prompts include, “What does this thought mean about me?” and “Why would that be so bad?” These questions help uncover core beliefs by encouraging users to probe further. Additional queries like “What would happen next?” or “What does this say about my worth?” are often included to facilitate reflection and insight. These structured questions ensure a systematic approach to identifying and challenging negative thought patterns effectively.
To maximize the benefits of the worksheet, encourage honesty and self-reflection. Allocate sufficient time to explore thoughts thoroughly. Review responses regularly to track progress. Consider sharing insights with a therapist for deeper understanding. Practice consistency to reinforce new thought patterns. Use the worksheet alongside other CBT tools for comprehensive growth. These strategies enhance the technique’s effectiveness in identifying and challenging core beliefs, fostering meaningful personal development.
A patient believing, “If I ask for help, I’m incompetent,” used the worksheet to explore this thought, revealing deeper fears of rejection and failure through systematic probing.
7.1 Practical Applications in TherapyIn therapy, the worksheet is used to guide clients in identifying core beliefs. For instance, a patient with anxiety explored the thought, “I’m a failure,” leading to uncovering beliefs about inadequacy and rejection. Through systematic questioning, the therapist helped the patient connect these beliefs to past experiences. This process allowed the patient to challenge and reframe these beliefs, reducing anxiety and improving self-esteem. The worksheet’s structured approach ensures deep exploration, making it an effective tool for therapists to address underlying issues in cognitive behavioral therapy sessions. Its clear design facilitates progress tracking, enhancing therapy outcomes significantly. Therapists find it particularly useful for clients struggling with persistent negative thought patterns, as it provides a tangible method to explore and understand the root causes of their emotions and behaviors.
7.2 Success Stories and OutcomesMany clients have reported significant progress after using the Downward Arrow Technique worksheet. For example, a client with depression identified core beliefs about worthlessness and rejection, leading to meaningful behavioral changes. Another client with anxiety reduced panic attacks by challenging negative thoughts uncovered through the technique. Therapists note improved emotional regulation and self-awareness in clients who consistently use the worksheet. Success stories highlight how this tool empowers individuals to reframe harmful beliefs, fostering long-term mental well-being and resilience. The structured approach of the worksheet ensures measurable outcomes, making it a valuable resource in therapy settings.
Therapists should guide clients empathetically, ensuring consistent worksheet use. Clients benefit from regular practice, fostering self-awareness and emotional regulation. Patience and persistence enhance outcomes in therapy.
8.1 Guidance for TherapistsTherapists should employ empathy and active listening when guiding clients through the worksheet. Encourage clients to explore deeper thoughts without judgment. Use open-ended questions to help uncover core beliefs. Regularly review progress and provide feedback. Ensure clients understand the purpose of each question to foster engagement. Encourage consistent use of the worksheet for homework to reinforce learning. Be patient, as some clients may struggle to identify core beliefs initially. Offer support and validate their experiences to build trust and rapport.
8.2 Tips for Clients or IndividualsBe honest and open when completing the worksheet. Take your time to reflect on each question deeply. Practice the technique regularly to build awareness. Review your progress with a therapist or trusted guide. Start with specific negative thoughts before exploring deeper beliefs. Be patient with yourself, as uncovering core beliefs can take time. Celebrate small insights and remember, this process is a journey toward self-understanding and growth.
The downward arrow technique stands out for its focus on uncovering core beliefs through Socratic questioning. Unlike cognitive restructuring, which challenges surface-level thoughts, this method delves deeper. It differs from behavioral activation by emphasizing thought exploration over action. While mindfulness-based techniques focus on acceptance, the downward arrow aims to uncover underlying beliefs. Exposure therapy targets specific fears, whereas this technique identifies broader patterns. Its unique depth makes it a valuable complement to other CBT approaches, enhancing self-awareness and addressing root causes of distress.
9.1 Similarities with Cognitive RestructuringThe downward arrow technique shares similarities with cognitive restructuring, as both aim to identify and challenge negative thought patterns. Both methods focus on exploring underlying beliefs and assumptions that drive emotional distress. Cognitive restructuring involves modifying distorted thoughts, while the downward arrow technique delves deeper to uncover core beliefs. Both approaches emphasize the importance of awareness and questioning to reduce distress. They complement each other in CBT, with cognitive restructuring addressing surface-level thoughts and the downward arrow technique targeting deeper beliefs, providing a comprehensive approach to thought modification.
The downward arrow technique differs from other Socratic questioning methods by its structured, sequential approach to uncovering core beliefs. Unlike general Socratic questioning, which can be more open-ended, this technique systematically drills down to identify deeply held beliefs. It focuses on exploring the underlying meanings of thoughts, making it more targeted than broader Socratic methods. While other techniques may address surface-level thoughts, the downward arrow technique is specifically designed to expose core beliefs, providing a clearer path to understanding and challenging deeply ingrained assumptions.
The downward arrow technique is a transformative CBT tool, empowering individuals to uncover and challenge core beliefs. Worksheets provide structured guidance, making it accessible for practical application and lasting change.
10.1 Summary of Key PointsThe downward arrow technique is a CBT method developed by Dr. David Burns to identify and challenge core beliefs. It involves probing questions to uncover deeper thoughts. Worksheets guide users through this process, helping to restructure negative beliefs. Effective for anxiety and depression, it enhances self-awareness and promotes personal growth. Therapists and individuals can use it to explore underlying beliefs systematically, fostering meaningful change and emotional well-being through structured exercises and reflection.
10.2 Encouragement for Further ExplorationExploring the downward arrow technique further can deepen your understanding of its transformative potential. By consistently using worksheets and practicing Socratic questioning, you can uncover core beliefs and reframe negative thoughts. This method, rooted in CBT, offers practical tools for personal growth and emotional resilience. Encourage yourself to embrace this technique as a lifelong skill, enhancing self-awareness and fostering positive change. Dive into recommended readings and guides to master its application, empowering yourself to navigate challenges with clarity and confidence.
Download the Downward Arrow Technique Worksheet PDF from reputable CBT resources. Explore Dr. David Burns’ “Feeling Good” and R. Harris’ guides for practical tools and insights.
11.1 Recommended ReadingDr. David Burns’ “Feeling Good” and “The Feeling Good Handbook” offer comprehensive insights into CBT techniques. For worksheets, explore Mindfulness Exercises and Cognitive Behavioral Therapy resources online. These guides provide practical tools for applying the downward arrow technique effectively. Worksheets from NG Bartholomew and R. Harris are also highly recommended for structured exercises. These resources are essential for both therapists and individuals seeking to understand and implement the technique for personal growth or clinical practice.
11.2 Where to Find Worksheets and GuidesWorksheets and guides for the downward arrow technique can be found in resources like Mindfulness Exercises and Cognitive Behavioral Therapy websites. Specific PDFs, such as those by NG Bartholomew and R. Harris, offer structured exercises. Many CBT workbooks, including Dr; David Burns’ materials, also provide downloadable templates. Additionally, subscription-based platforms like Teach Mindfulness Exercises offer comprehensive guides. These resources are ideal for both therapists and individuals seeking practical tools to apply the technique effectively.
The post downward arrow technique worksheet pdf appeared first on Every Task, Every Guide: The Instruction Portal
.
Goldman Sachs' view in recent months has been that the market could probably continue to climb the “wall of worry”.
However, their baseline forecast is still quite benign - with growth recovering in 2026 and the Fed pushing the policy rate steadily lower in the coming months.
There are pockets of frothiness across assets and the spot VIX is close to the lowest levels of the year.
But, as Goldman's Dominic Wilson highlights below, 3-month VIX futures remain above 20 and the high spread to spot VIX suggests that there may still be risk premium to squeeze out in places if we simply avoid new problems.
The VIX is approaching the year's lows, but VIX futures have been stickier, implying lingering risk premium
Source: Goldman Sachs
As the market has taken more credit for good news, however, it is getting harder to identify clear new macro tailwinds.
We think growth pricing has largely taken credit for the nearly 2% GDP growth we see through 2026 and beyond.
And while we thought the more likely macro tailwind for US equities would come from a dovish policy shift, the market has now moved in that direction too.
The big macro risk is if there is a challenge to the process of looking through spot weakness that makes the market worry more about recession risk.
Markets were quick to move from worrying about growth to welcoming Fed easing on the back of payrolls weakness.
If that move coincides with higher-than-expected inflation outcomes, concerns about a constrained Fed would be an even bigger challenge.
The good news is that short-dated equity hedges and downside in front-end rates are cheaper than they have been for some time, so we continue to think hedging that recession risk into key events makes sens
Professional subscribers can read Dominic Wilson's full detailed note here...
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 14:40– by New Deal democrat The post pandemic period has been an exception to many past relationships. This morning’s data on housing construction raises the issue as to whether housing is going to be included in those exceptions as well. That’s because the data has been classically recessionary for a number of months, and yet the […]
The post Housing remains recessionary. Why hasn’t one happened yet? appeared first on Angry Bear.
Some of us have expressed frustration with the ridiculous delay in the appellate court review of the absurd civil judgment against Donald Trump.
It appears to have entered some judicial black hole where neither light nor an opinion can escape.
Now, the Wall Street Journal claims that it is due to a deeply divided panel in a column titled “Court Split Leaves Trump’s Civil Fraud Appeal Stuck in Slow Lane.”
This should not be a close case and certainly should not take this long.
The case against Trump was raw lawfare, and the entire trial by Justice Arthur Engoron made a mockery of the court system, particularly his ridiculous half-a-billion-dollar judgment.
Yet, weeks turned into months and then into years as the appellate court seemed lost in navel-gazing. There was also a concern over passive-aggressive delays; the long appeal is not only preventing Trump from moving this case toward the Supreme Court but keeps him trapped in an appellate amber.
Now the Wall Street Journal is reporting:
A five-justice panel has yet to render a decision nearly a year after taking up the case, leaving him and his business in limbo. Behind the scenes, members of the panel have been divided, and three of them have been writing opinions, according to people familiar with the matter. It couldn’t be determined how they are split. Justices do occasionally shift their positions, and the number of opinions could change, the people said.
…
The panel hearing the Trump appeal includes four judges appointed by Democratic governors and one Republican appointee, David Friedman, who is regarded as among the most conservative of the court’s 21 members. The court’s presiding justice, Renwick, also on the panel, is viewed as a stalwart liberal who has an institutional interest in seeking consensus and guarding the court’s reputation.
It is not a good thing to see a leak of this kind from any court. The United States Supreme Court was rocked by the leaking of a draft opinion of the Dobbs decision just a few years ago. No one was ever prosecuted for the leak.
It is distressing to hear that some of these judges may be striving to preserve this nonsensical opinion where Trump was hit with half a billion dollars in a case where no one lost money and the banks wanted renewed business with his company. Affirming the decision would be the final nail in the coffin for the New York legal system, which was turned into a farce by New York Attorney General Letitia James and Judge Engoron.
Even if it is true that the judges have hopelessly fractured, they could do us all a favor and allow the case to proceed toward more competent jurists and final resolution.
There is certainly no rush by these appellate judges to right any wrong done to Trump, who appears, again, to fall into a special category of persona non grata in the New York legal system. This appellate panel appears content to leave Trump twisting in the wind as it contemplates what to do with a defendant who garners little sympathy from its members.
Most appeals are measured in months; this seems measured in millennia. Even with the notoriously slow New York legal system, the pendency of this appeal is becoming itself a controversy.
It is often said that justice delayed is justice denied.
However, delayed and denied justice for Trump appears to be a bedrock principle of the New York justice system.
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 14:20Via Headline USA,
The Justice Department has agreed to provide to Congress documents from the Jeffrey Epstein sex trafficking investigation, a key House lawmaker said Monday in announcing a move that appears to avert, at least temporarily, a potential separation of powers clash.
The records are to be turned over starting Friday to the House Oversight Committee, which earlier this month issued a broad subpoena to the Justice Department about a criminal case that has long captivated public attention, recently roiled the top rungs of President Donald Trump’s administration and been a consistent magnet for conspiracy theories.
“There are many records in DOJ’s custody, and it will take the Department time to produce all the records and ensure the identification of victims and any child sexual abuse material are redacted,” Kentucky Rep. James Comer, the Republican committee chair, said in a statement.
“I appreciate the Trump Administration’s commitment to transparency and efforts to provide the American people with information about this matter."
A wealthy and well-connected financier, Epstein was found dead in his New York jail cell weeks after his 2019 arrest in what investigators ruled a suicide. His accomplice, Ghislaine Maxwell, was convicted in 2021 of helping lure teenage girls to be sexually abused by Epstein and is serving a 20-year prison sentence.
The House committee’s subpoena sought all documents and communications from the case files of Epstein and Maxwell.
It also demanded records about communications between Democratic President Joe Biden’s administration and the Justice Department regarding Epstein, as well as documents related to an earlier federal investigation into Epstein in Florida that resulted in a non-prosecution agreement.
It was not clear exactly which or how many documents might be produced or whether the cooperation with Congress reflected a broader change in posture since last month, when the FBI and Justice Department abruptly announced that they would not be releasing any additional records from the Epstein investigation after determining that no “further disclosure would be appropriate or warranted.”
That announcement put the Trump administration on the defensive, with officials since then scrambling both to tamp down angry questions from the president’s base and also laboring to appear transparent.
Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche interviewed Maxwell at a Florida courthouse over two days last month — though no records from those conversations have been made public — and the Justice Department has also sought to unseal grand jury transcripts in the Epstein and Maxwell cases, though so far those requests have been denied.
A Justice Department spokesperson declined to comment Monday.
The House Oversight panel separately issued subpoenas to eight former law enforcement leaders as well as former Democratic President Bill Clinton and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Bill Clinton was among a number of luminaries acquainted with Epstein before the criminal investigation against him in Florida became public two decades ago.
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 13:40Since the secretary of HHS is a vaccine denialist who cannot be trusted, the American Academy of Pediatrics has this week published its own authoritative, comprehensive, science-based vaccine schedule for children and adolescents from birth to age 18. The link provides: – the schedule for routine immunizations from birth to 18 years of age; – […]
The post The AAP childhood vaccine schedule appeared first on Angry Bear.
President Trump weighed in on the Mid-Atlantic power crisis on Truth Social early Tuesday, echoing our warnings last week about the fallout from Democrats' multi-year "green" crusade to replace reliable, low-cost fossil fuel power plants with unreliable solar and wind amid power demand surges from AI data centers and other electrification trends. The result has been financially crushing for some residents across the Mid-Atlantic. In Maryland, Democrats' approval ratings are already tanking.
"STUPID AND UGLY WINDMILLS ARE KILLING NEW JERSEY," President Trump wrote on Truth Social moments ago.
He continued, "Energy prices up 28% this year, and not enough electricity to take care of state. STOP THE WINDMILLS!"
Trump's use of Truth Social to address the unfolding power bill crisis in the Mid-Atlantic comes after our year-long reporting (read) on the emerging crisis, which has been amplified nationally in recent weeks...
The Trump administration needs to address the power bill crisis by showing voters in both states that a common denominator of destructive policies is driving the crisis: A disastrous green energy agenda, pushed by radical leftist lawmakers, is dismantling reliable and affordable fossil fuel power generation in favor of unstable solar and wind. This has unleashed a power bill armageddon on working-class and middle-class households, as well as mom-and-pop businesses, all while baseload power demand surges in the era of AI data centers.
Fox News jumped on the power bill crisis story last week...
You don't say... https://t.co/iX4l8J6otj pic.twitter.com/M620Jd7Pog
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 14, 2025
Perhaps New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy's decision to shutter the state's nuclear and coal plants, without a one-to-one replacement for lost capacity on the grid, was a catastrophic error. His administration's prioritization of offshore wind farms and other green energy projects has left the grid more fragile than ever.
Murphy took six power plants offline and invested a billion dollars in chasing his offshore wind dream. Mikie enabled the obsessions of climate activists by voting in favor of the trillion dollar green new scam (aka, inflation reduction act). Instead of investing in existing… https://t.co/6MXgSHbT60 pic.twitter.com/ka2EfhB9W6
— Protect Our Coast NJ (@njcoast_protect) July 29, 2025
In Maryland, the power bill crisis seems much more severe than in New Jersey!
Failed green policies are crushing the very working poor and middle class that Democrats have promised to protect. Yet the green utopia that was pitched was always a lie.
According to Change Annapolis, a bipartisan group of taxpayers, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore's ratings plunged over a multitude of issues, including power bills: "Marylanders are tired of his presidential vanity tour, crushing tax hikes, and an energy crisis of his own making," adding, "He's polling worse than O'Malley and Glendening at this point in their terms."
The power bill crisis is still in its early stages. Goldman analyst Hongcen Wei wrote an alarming note to clients last week, warning that a majority of U.S. power grids "have already reached dangerously low spare capacity levels that are at or below the critical reliability threshold. This raises blackout threats and results in power price spikes during high-demand usage hours."
In other words, the power crisis has arrived, and it's only going to get worse from here. The Trump administration needs to effectively communicate to voters that skyrocketing power bills are the direct result of failed green policies in the age of AI data centers.
We've got bad news... read this.
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 13:20This short YouTube will eat up less than five minutes of your time. I believe Robert is mostly correct in his regard for our current president and a failed Republican party which appears to be bought, sealed, and delivered to do his bidding. The same as in the sixties and seventies, the answer to this […]
The post Robert Reich Talking Politics appeared first on Angry Bear.
Travel on all roads and streets changed by +1.5% (+4.1 billion vehicle miles) for April 2025 as compared with April 2024. Travel for the month is estimated to be 277.3 billion vehicle miles.
The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for April 2025 is 277.0 billion miles, a +1.3% ( 3.6 billion vehicle miles) change over April 2024. It also represents a 0.3% change (0.8 billion vehicle miles) compared with March 2025.
Cumulative Travel for 2025 changed by +0.8% (+8.3 billion vehicle miles). The cumulative estimate for the year is 1,043.5 billion vehicle miles of travel.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.Part of Zelensky's motive for wearing a suit Monday to the White House has become clearer with fresh reporting in the Financial Times, which reviewed a document showing Ukraine will promise to buy $100 billion of American weapons financed by Europe in a bid to obtain robust US security guarantees.
Additionally, "Under the proposals, Kyiv and Washington would also strike a $50bn deal to produce drones with Ukrainian companies that have pioneered the technology since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022," the report continues. Ukraine pitched its plan during the Monday White House summit, which also involved seven EU leaders - and the $100BN arms deal became part of the key talking points pushed by the European allies.
Getty Images
This is an effort by design meant to ensure Ukraine can procure what it wants - and that its war efforts can still be funded uninterrupted - while still ultimately appeasing Trump. "We’re not giving anything. We’re selling weapons," Trump had said Monday in response to a reporter's question on the matter.
It remains very obvious that Europe's demands of keeping up huge pressure on Russia, including through sanctions, are intended to stymie any US-backed deal seen as too favorable to Moscow. The FT report comments on this as follows:
The document details how Ukraine intends to make a counter-pitch to the US after Trump appeared to align himself with Russia’s position for ending the war following his meeting with President Vladimir Putin in Alaska last week.
It reiterates Ukraine's call for a ceasefire that Trump had espoused but then dropped after his Putin meeting in favor of the pursuit of a comprehensive peace settlement.
Geopolitical analyst and commentator Glenn Diesen has pointed out, however, that Kiev is essentially attempting to create leverage out of nothing.
"Europe will spend $100 billion it does not have, to buy weapons from America that it does not have, to arm soldiers that Ukraine now lacks," he wrote, explaining further: "This is to confront Russia, which for 30 years warned it would respond to NATO militarizing its borders."
Diesen followed by doing something that Washington policy-makers refuse to do, and that is look at the big picture of how we got here [emphasis ZH]:
There was no threat to Ukraine before 2014, as only a tiny minority of Ukrainians wanted to join NATO, and Russia laid no claim to any of Ukraine's territory. Western governments then supported a coup to pull Ukraine into NATO's orbit - something that CIA Directors, Ambassadors, and Western state leaders had warned would instigate a security competition and likely trigger a war.
Russia predictably reacted fiercely. Ever since then, the only acceptable narrative has been that Russia wants to restore the Soviet Union and that Putin is Hitler. Any dissent is labelled as "disinformation", "propaganda", "hybrid warfare", or even treason.
The war has now been lost, and the Americans are pulling away from it, asking the Europeans to absorb the consequences. How do the Europeans respond? By doubling down on this madness, which will destroy Ukraine, our economies, and our relevance in the world - and possibly trigger a nuclear war. - What is the strategy? More of the same? The best thing for Ukraine is to remove it from the frontlines of the geopolitical struggle over where to draw the new dividing lines in Europe: End the war, rebuild Ukraine, and replace expansionist military blocs with the principle of indivisible security.
Arestovych throws up his arms, says Russia was right all along about Ukraine neutrality:
— Chebureki Man (@CheburekiMan) August 19, 2025
In conclusion, the fundamental challenge for Ukraine lies not in tactical maneuvers but in recognizing the strategic perspective: the necessity of reimagining its role as a neutral,… https://t.co/ZyKFLoXlfc
This week, as negotiations proceed and Europe keeps up its drive to pile more and more pressure on Putin, the big question will be whether the Western side can indeed understand that it has lost the proxy war.
Many immense hurdles remain, and one could also point out there are too many cooks in the kitchen (judging by the over a half-dozen European leaders present in the Oval yesterday), making things all the more unnecessarily complicated - and that's probably by design.
* * *
Glenn Greenwald agrees with this bleak assessment of Europe's role in thwarting peace...
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 12:00DC foreign policy elites now know that Ukraine cannot win, but they would rather continue fueling a fruitless and deadly war than admit they were wrong and delusional about Ukraine's prospects against Russia. @ggreenwald on the Ukraine war: pic.twitter.com/tUyLtjGG8V
— System Update (@SystemUpdate_) August 19, 2025
Home Depot's sales improved during its fiscal second quarter as consumers remained focused on smaller projects amid cost concerns and economic uncertainty, but its performance missed Wall Street's expectations.
Revenue for the three months ended August 3 climbed to $45.28 billion from $43.18 billion, but fell short of the $45.41 billion estimated by about 30bps. Gross margins beta by 20 bps and operating margins were largely in-line. Comp store sales rose 1%, also missing the 1.3% estimate. In the U.S., comp store sales increased 1.4%. According to Goldman, "comp sales were about 30 bps light and exactly what almost all previews and inbounds suggested." While customer transactions declined ~1% in the quarter, the amount shoppers spent rose to $90.01 per average receipt from $88.90 in the prior-year period.
Q2 EPS of $4.68 also missed consensus $4.72. The company earned $4.55 billion, or $4.58 per share, for the second quarter. A year ago, the Atlanta-based company earned $4.56 billion, or $4.60 per share.
Here is a snapshot of Goldman's first take analysis (full note available to pro subs):
Average ticket increased +1.2% y/y to $90.0 from $88.9 in the prior year, while
Total customer transactions decreased -0.9% y/y to $446.8mn from $451.0mn in the prior year. Management noted that trends that began in the 2H of last year continued through the 1H of this year as customers engaged more broadly in smaller home improvement projects.
Gross margin increased +2 bps y/y to 33.4%, above GS/consensus estimates of 33.2%/33.3%.
Total operating expenses increased +8.2% y/y to $8.4bn, while total operating expenses as a % of sales increased +57 bps y/y to 18.6%.
Adjusted operating margin decreased -56 bps y/y to 14.8%, below thenGS/consensus estimates of 15.1%/14.9%, and adjusted operating profit of $6.7bn compares to $6.6bn in the prior year (+1.1%).
Inventory increased +7.7% y/y (vs. +14.9% in 1Q) which we note compares to the sales increase of 4.9%. The company’s payable ratio of 52.7% increased
And here is a snapshot of the company results vs Goldman estimates:
“Our second quarter results were in line with our expectations," Chair and CEO Ted Decker said in a statement. "The momentum that began in the back half of last year continued throughout the first half as customers engaged more broadly in smaller home improvement projects.”
The print was in line with buyside whisper expectations of a small miss, with Goldman writing that the direction of the stock today likely won’t be too heavily influenced by this exact result, which does not feel like thesis changing.
More importantly, the company reaffirmed full year guidance, with commentary on the call about improved trajectory to end the quarter after some weather headwinds earlier in the quarter: The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 forecast for total sales growth of about 2.8%. It still expects adjusted earnings to decline about 2% from $15.24 per share a year earlier, although it cited momentum continuing that started to build in 2H prior year.
Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData, said that Home Depot saw consumers concentrating on smaller projects and gardening during the quarter: “As the largest improvement player, Home Depot is getting the lion’s share of this growth and remains the number one destination for consumers due to strong customer service, a comprehensive range, and sharp pricing,” he said. “The latter factor will serve it well as consumers become more price conscious.”
Home improvement retailers like Home Depot have been dealing with homeowners putting off bigger projects because of increased borrowing costs and lingering concerns about inflation.
The US housing market has been in a sales slump dating back to 2022, when mortgage rates began to climb from pandemic-era lows. Sales of existing homes have slumped as elevated mortgage rates and rising prices discourage home shoppers. Sales of such homes in the U.S. slid in June to the slowest pace since last September as mortgage rates remained high and the national median sales price climbed to an all-time high of $435,300.
After initially sliding as much as 5%, Home Depot stock eventually surged over 4% in early Tuesday trading and was responsible for about half of all the DJIA gains.
The U.S. East Coast dodged a massive bullet this week as powerful Category 3 Hurricane Erin passed near the Bahamas on Tuesday morning. Instead of making landfall, Erin is expected to unleash rough surf from Central Florida to Canada before curving out into the western Atlantic later this week. This has certaintly brought excitement for East Coast surfers.
At 0500 ET, Erin was approximately 700 miles southwest of Bermuda and 750 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras.
"Erin forecast to substantially grow in size while moving over the western Atlantic through the week," National Hurricane Center Meteorologist Robbie Berg wrote in a note, warning, "Dangerous rip currents expected along U.S. East Coast beaches."
Tropical storm and storm surge watches have been issued for the Outer Banks of North Carolina all the way up to the Mid-Atlantic states.
Local media outlets reported that evacuations are underway in the Outer Banks area as the storm approaches.
Here's the latest forecast track (East Coast dodged a bullet):
The most active part of the Atlantic Hurricane season has arrived after a relatively quiet first half.
. . .
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 11:00
Recent comments