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Justice Kentanji Brown Jackson Argues For Supreme Power Of DC Bureaucracy

Zero Hedge -

Justice Kentanji Brown Jackson Argues For Supreme Power Of DC Bureaucracy

Authored by 'sundance' via The Last Refuge,

Highlighting exactly why Barack Obama, Joe Biden and James Clyburn needed to deploy a 2021 Machiavellian strategy to get her moved onto the Supreme Court, Justice Kentanji Brown Jackson (KBJ) argues for the supreme power of the DC bureaucracy that must not be challenged by the President of the United States (Executive Branch).

In the case of Trump v Slaughter, the removal of the FTC Chair, Justice KBJ argues that presidential authority must be kept in check by the unelected “professionals and experts” who make up the bureaucracy underneath him.  The “No Kings” argument is entirely ridiculous given the plenary power of the executive and the constitutional authority of the office.

Ketanji Brown-Jackson was always going to be installed in the supreme court as part of the overall Obama team’s use of Joe Biden.  Merrick Garland was removed from his position specifically to create the path for KBJ to travel.  Everything about this was planned well in advance of Biden’s installation.  KBJ is to the judicial branch what BHO was/is to the executive branch.

It was February 25th, 2020, to be precise, just four days before the South Carolina Democrat primary.  South Carolina Representative James Clyburn went backstage at the presidential debate and told Biden, You’ve had a couple of opportunities to mention naming a Black woman to the Supreme Court,Clyburn lectured his friend of nearly half a century, like a schoolteacher scolding a child.I’m telling you, don’t you leave the stage tonight without making it known that you will do that.{link}

Unbeknownst to Biden at the time, just two days earlier Barack Obama and James Clyburn came to an agreement and created the most consequential alliance of the 2020 Democrat campaign. 

Barack Obama the figurative and ideological leader of the movement known as “Black Lives Matter”, and James Clyburn the figurative and ideological leader of the political construct within the African Methodist Episcopal (AME) church, had struck a deal.

Obama and Clyburn really had no choice but to come to an agreement and form the alliance. 

If they did not act fast, Bernie Sanders was gaining momentum, and they could not have Sanders at the top of the 2020 ticket, because he was too outside the club system which was now almost exclusively focused on racial identity as a tool for political power.

A Bernie Sanders -vs- Donald Trump general election would have been a disaster; and it would be almost impossible for the racial operatives in the key precincts [Atlanta (GA), Philly (PA), Clark County (NV), Wayne County (Mich), Madison (WI)] to feel inspired enough to risk themselves and commit fraud to help Bernie win.

To get rid of Sanders, BLM and AME aligned.  This was the actual moment when Hillary Clinton was cast into the pit of irrelevance in Democrat politics.

Within the agreement, Obama and Clyburn selected Biden as the tool they could easily control to deliver on their larger, progressive, leftist intentions.

A few days later, James Clyburn then endorsed Biden while Barack Obama began making phone calls telling each of the other candidates to drop out in sequence and support Biden or else the club would destroy them.  The only one told not to drop out yet was Elizabeth Warren, as she would be needed as the insurance policy, the splitter against Bernie Sanders.

Each of the candidates was promised the traditional indulgences for toeing the party line, and the rest is history. 

Joe Biden wandered around doing what everyone told him to do, which was mostly stay in his basement and let the club work on his behalf, until the club delivered the nomination.

Inside that process, the strategic map was modified to ensure Ketanji Brown-Jackson would advance to the Supreme Court.

With Biden installed, he would select Merrick Garland as his Attorney General.  Judge Garland was an important judge on the important DC Circuit Court. 

Garland’s replacement would need to be a Senate confirmed seat for that court.  Brown-Jackson would be put into Garland’s open spot. {Go Deep}

As a standalone Supreme Court nominee, Brown-Jackson would have been a radical pick.  Justice Brown-Jackson is a known activist in the DC District Court; however, with this maneuver she could get through nomination easier and then sit on the highest court for thirty years.

Once Brown-Jackson was Senate confirmed for the DC Circuit Court, the countdown began until she was elevated as a Supreme Court nomination to replace Justice Stephen Bryer, now 83-years-old.  The Senate had no political ammunition to block or not confirm the radical SCOTUS pick, because she was confirmed a few months before with support from Republicans.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 11:20

Exxon Jumps 4% After Company Boosts 2030 Cash-Flow Outlook

Zero Hedge -

Exxon Jumps 4% After Company Boosts 2030 Cash-Flow Outlook

Exxon is trading sharply higher today, rising nearly 4% after the opening bell as investors reacted to a stronger long-term outlook from the company. The oil giant raised its expectations for future earnings and cash flow through 2030, driven by continued growth in its most profitable assets and additional structural cost savings. The update has pushed Exxon shares back toward 52-week and all-time highs, giving positive momentum to one of our favorite names heading into the new year. 

In its announcement, Exxon said it now expects $35 billion in cash-flow growth by 2030, an increase of about 17% from what it was projecting a year ago, with no changes to capital expenditure. The company also raised its cost-savings target, noting that savings will rise 10% to $20 billion compared with 2019 levels. These improvements come without raising spending, which suggests stronger operating efficiency, particularly in the company’s upstream business.

Much of Exxon’s confidence stems from its heavy investment in low-cost fields in the Permian Basin and Guyana. Both are profitable at less than $35 a barrel, enabling Exxon to grow production and generate earnings even as other producers struggle with prices near multi-year lows.

Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods emphasized that the company’s investment strategy during periods of skepticism—particularly during the pandemic and the ESG-driven shift away from fossil fuels—has positioned it well for the future. “Our transformation helps ensure that in any future environment, and for decades to come, Exxon Mobil will have an important role and deliver substantial shareholder value,” he said in the statement.

Bloomberg energy analyst Javier Blas wrote on Tuesday that Exxon would also "lower spending in low-carbon businesses (to ~$20 billion over the next five years, down from ~$30 billion)" and that "the company plans to stop for now the construction of several hydrogen facilities."

"While we're convinced that low-carbon hydrogen will be required [...] the markets and customer-base are developing slowly," Woods told him.

Elsewhere production is expected to reach 5.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2030, 17% higher than current levels and 100,000 barrels a day more than forecast a year ago. Exxon attributed the increase to technology advancements, particularly in the Permian Basin, where new proprietary methods may allow the company to extract far more oil than other shale operators.

The company also plans to bring its Golden Pass natural gas export terminal online in the coming weeks, turning what was once a cheap byproduct into a global revenue source. Additional projections include capital spending of $27 billion to $29 billion in 2026, production of about 4.9 million barrels per day that year, 37% of which will come from the Permian, along with a final investment decision on a low-carbon data center project expected “by late 2026.”

Exxon added that it expects to generate cumulative surplus cash flow of $145 billion through 2030 and for earnings to grow $25 billion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 13%, while all 2030 corporate emissions intensity plans will be achieved in 2026.

For long-term shareholders, today’s surge reinforces why Exxon remains one of our favorite names. The company is not only growing production and earnings, it is doing so while keeping spending in check and focusing on assets that generate attractive returns in almost any pricing environment. With shares again testing record highs and investors responding positively to the stronger 2030 outlook, Exxon appears well-positioned for a breakout higher in 2026...

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 11:05

Trump Reversing "Humphrey's Executor" Is NOT Priced In

Zero Hedge -

Trump Reversing "Humphrey's Executor" Is NOT Priced In

By Michael Every of Rabobank

There are key central bank decisions this week, starting with the RBA today. However, the market has already priced in their expected outcomes. What it’s failing to price in, though it’s more important, is the stream of political and geopolitical developments in which it operates. Not Trump threatening Mexico with an extra 5% tariff over water; nor threats of tariffs on Indian rice and Canadian fertilizer; nor Trump about to unveil a $12bn farm aid package, tasking his top advisers with finding ways to lower soaring beef prices; nor Nigeria helping foil a coup in Benin, Thailand and Cambodia attacking each other, and Israel bombing Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Rather, the US Supreme Court appears ready to overturn decades of precedent to grant Trump the power to fire a swathe of government officials. Reversing ‘Humphrey’s Executor’ will allow him to overcome legal and bureaucratic resistance to the Gramscian changes he’s introducing to the political economy. That isn’t priced in. Indeed, despite Justice Kavanaugh’s opposition, it could put the Fed in the firing line too, with Governor Cook’s court case in January and a Fed Chair nominee, likely Hassett, promised within weeks. That isn’t priced in either.   

Neither is Friday’s US National Security Strategy (NSS) even if for some countries and many markets it implies staggering changes ahead. 

It’s America First, starting with “protecting the country and its way of life” and ending with “restoring US spiritual and cultural health”. 

Its working principles are a focused definition of national interests; peace through strength; a predisposition to non-interventionism; flexible realism; the primacy of nations; a balance of power; pro-American worker; fairness; and competence and merit. 

Its priorities begin with “The era of mass migration is over”; protection of core rights and liberties; burden-sharing and burden-shifting; realignment through peace; and economic security, focused on balanced trade, access to critical supply chains and materials, reindustrialisation, rebuilding the defence industrial base, energy dominance, and financial sector dominance.

In the Americas, the US wants to “enlist” new friends to work with it, and it will expand its military presence there via a ‘Trump Corollary” to Monroe Doctrine. The goal is for “partner nations” to build up their domestic economies, while a “stronger and more sophisticated” Western Hemisphere grows for the US. That’s not the traditional US model of US cheap labour and resource extraction. The plan is also to “expand” its list of partners while pushing out influence from “non-hemispheric competitors”, which sounds like regime change, a long-standing tradition.

In Asia, the aim is to “win the economic future” and “prevent military confrontation. Even with Trump agreeing to sell older Nvidia chips to China, the NSS states: “we will rebalance America’s economic relationship with China, prioritising reciprocity and fairness to restore American economic independence. Trade with China should be balanced and focused on non-sensitive factors.” Indeed, the US will “resist predatory, state-directed subsidies and industrial strategies,” etc. Moreover, “We must encourage… prominent nations in adopting trade policies that help rebalance China’s economy toward household consumption.” So, a US bloc with a common external tariff against China. This “must be accompanied by a robust and ongoing focus on deterrence to prevent war in the Indo-Pacific”, and from Taiwan to the South China Sea, this means much more military burden-sharing from US allies and partners. 

For Europe, the emphasis is on decline and the starker “prospect of civilisational erasure.” There is a litany of US complaints about the EU’s strategy and the view that “should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less. As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies.” This is then sharpened to, “Over the long term, it is more than plausible that within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European. As such, it is an open question whether they will view their place in the world, or their alliance with the US, in the same way as those who signed the NATO charter.” 

While the FT talks of ‘Trump’s America and a clash of civilizations with Europe’, the NSS argues “Europe remains strategically and culturally vital to the US…Not only can we not afford to write Europe off - doing so would be self-defeating for what this strategy aims to achieve…. Our goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory. We will need a strong Europe to help us successfully compete, and to work in concert with us to prevent any adversary from dominating Europe.” So, the US wants to remake Europe state by state, ignoring the EU. The NSS says policy will prioritise “Cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations.” 

The NSS also says “It is a core interest of the US to negotiate an expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine.” Yet after meeting Macron, Merz, and Starmer yesterday, Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says he won’t yield any territory to Russia. The war may grind on… and the US may walk away, leaving Europe to pay and provide materiel for it. In parallel, Reuters reports the US plans to hand over the running of European NATO by end-2027. If so, European plans to raise core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 would be completely inadequate, more so if there is war nor peace. This could require spending 8-10% of GDP for the next two years; or Russia might win, which Europe has said is “existential” for it. The Deputy Secretary of State also just posted that the US will no longer accept NATO meeting with it and talking ‘alliance’, then after it leaves, the same countries changing hats to ‘EU’ and pushing policies that undermine US interests. He implies one or the other will have to change. That has huge implications of its own, including the US openly playing divide and rule via security with the EU: east/north vs west/south. 

In short, the NSS puts Europe --as currently constituted-- in a terrible geopolitical position with no good options. The response so far has been silence (‘As Trump goes on the attack, von der Leyen goes into hiding’). Limited conversation around the topic focuses on the mistakes that the US is making. OK, **but what will EUROPE DO**? Chatter of ‘working with China’ rather than the US --as Macron was maybe angling for when not threatening to use Europe’s trade-bazooka on Beijing-- would just ensure the US becomes openly antagonistic; and Chinese trade practices are set in place, as its trade surplus hit a new high. We were here on tariffs too, before the EU yielded.

Tellingly, the NSS plan for the Middle East – “Shift burdens, build peace” actually looks like the easier region to deal with, as does Africa’s “Look to partner with select countries to ameliorate conflict.” Cynics might add that reads like a future NSS Europe text.

This might all seem abstract to markets (“What does this mean for the ECB?”) but it was the ECB’s Lagarde who underlined the world which made Europe prosperous is disappearing. The one that opened up on Friday is likely to be even more transformative as: JP Morgan’s Dimon attacks Europe’s economic record; Ford’s CEO warns Europe is risking the future of its auto industry; the EU steel industry is “in disarray”; France is shielding an €18bn Russian asset pot from the EU ‘reparations loan’ push, where Germany faces a €52bn potential bill for guaranteeing it – and Japan won’t join in.

That leaves one hope for the EU to cling to: that the NSS is just aspirational shelfware. Yet if the Supreme Court rules for Trump on Humphrey’s Executor, the NSS may be backed by new US political-economy hardware and software. That’s called a fat tail risk - and it’s NOT priced in!  

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 10:00

BLS: Job Openings Unchanged at 7.7 million in October

Calculated Risk -

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary
The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.7 million in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (2.9 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.9 million) were little changed.
emphasis added
The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for October; the employment report to be released this coming Tuesday will be for November.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings increased in October to 7.67 million from 7.66 million in September.
The number of job openings (black) were up 1% year-over-year. 

Quits were down 9% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

Musk Claims EU Commissars Are 'Responsible For Murder Of Europe'

Zero Hedge -

Musk Claims EU Commissars Are 'Responsible For Murder Of Europe'

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Elon Musk escalated his confrontation with Brussels on Monday, declaring on X that “the EU commissars are responsible for the murder of Europe” after the European Commission insisted it would “make sure” the social media platform pays the €120 million fine imposed last week for alleged violations of the Digital Services Act (DSA).

The Commission announced on Friday that X had breached transparency rules and used deceptive design practices under the bloc’s online-platform regulation, with specific criticism of its blue-tick verification system. The EU regulator said the system exposes people to scams, impersonation, and manipulation by malicious actors.

The move prompted a swift backlash in Washington as senior U.S. officials accused the EU of censorship, regulatory harassment, and unfair targeting of American technology firms. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “The European Commission’s $140 million fine isn’t just an attack on X, it’s an attack on all American tech platforms and the American people by foreign governments. The days of censoring Americans online are over.”

Brendan Carr, chairman of the Federal Communications Commission, likewise criticized the EU action, saying, “Once again, Europe is fining a successful U.S. tech company for being a successful U.S. tech company. Europe is taxing Americans to subsidize a continent held back by Europe’s own suffocating regulations.”

Howard Lutnick, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, added that “the Digital Services Act is designed to stifle free speech and American tech companies,” while U.S. Ambassador to the EU Andrew Puzder described the penalty as “excessive” and a result of “EU regulatory overreach.”

Musk has frequently clashed with liberal Western governments, accusing them of suppressing free expression. In recent months, he has publicly backed figures on Europe’s political right, including Alice Weidel of Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) and several anti-mass immigration MPs in the United Kingdom, such as Rupert Lowe.

“Remigration is the normal position,” Musk wrote on Monday, remarking on a poll indicating that seven in ten Danes support deporting foreign nationals convicted of crimes.

Over the weekend, he intensified his criticism of Brussels by calling for the “abolition” of the European Union, claiming it prioritizes bureaucracy over democracy. “Dissolve the EU and return power to the people,” he wrote while commenting on a European Court of Justice ruling last year that upheld a financial penalty against Hungary for refusing to accept migrant quotas under the EU Migration Pact. That scheme requires member states either to accept allocated asylum seekers or pay roughly €20,000 per person as a solidarity contribution.

Musk has also claimed the controversy has boosted X’s popularity. He said the platform was seeing “record-breaking downloads in many countries in Europe” following the announcement of the fine, calling X the number one news app “in every EU country.”

At the Commission’s daily briefing on Monday, spokesperson Thomas Regnier said the penalty would be enforced. “X will have to pay that fine. The €120 million will have to be paid. We will make sure that we get this money,” he told reporters.

Regnier said the Commission would continue to use X to communicate with the public despite the platform’s decision to suspend the Commission’s account for paid advertising in response to the penalty. He said the EU executive uses all its social media accounts, including those on X, “to get in touch with citizens, stakeholders, to do some outreach work, to precisely speak about what we are doing in the EU.”

X can still challenge the decision, and Regnier confirmed the company “has 90 days to get back” to the Commission on how it intends to proceed.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 08:40

Futures Flat With Fed/Oracle Event Bonanza On Deck

Zero Hedge -

Futures Flat With Fed/Oracle Event Bonanza On Deck

US futures are unchanged, with traders looking forward to two market-moving events on Wednesday: the Fed meeting (where 22bps of easing is priced in) and Oracle results. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 contracts are little changed. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly lower except for a 0.5% gain in NVDA: TSLA -0.9%, META -0.5%, GOOGL -0.3%. Since yesterday’s close, incremental macro headlines were largely muted. Headlines on NVDA’s likely H200 shipment approval drove gains in stocks both during Monday trading session and pre-market today. In addition, there was an article on China is set to limit access to NVDA’s H200 chips this morning. Bond yields are fractionally lower, while the USD reverses earlier losses and is flat. Commodities are mixed: oil and previous metals are higher, while base metals and Ags are lower. Key focus today are Small Business Optimism and JOLTS.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Nvidia up 0.1%, paring earlier gains, after the FT reported that China’s regulators are discussing ways to limit permits for access to its H200 semiconductors (Amazon +0.1%, Microsoft +0.1%, Apple -0.1%, Alphabet -0.2%, Meta -0.6%, Tesla -0.9%). 

  • Almonty Industries (ALM) is down 14% to $6.79 after the company priced 18 million shares at $6.25 each for $112.5 million in gross proceeds.
  • Ares Management (ARES) rises 8.1% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the stock will replace Kellanova in the S&P 500, effective Dec. 11.
  • Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) falls 4.6% after the luxury builder beat analysts’ estimates for quarterly orders, while providing full-year guidance for 2026 that fell below expectations.
  • Viking Holdings (VIK) rises 2.3% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the cruise operator to buy from neutral. Meanwhile, peer Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) falls 2.5% as the bank downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.

US stocks may be more volatile after tomorrow’s Fed meeting than after other recent decisions because of diverging views among Fed officials, with Bloomberg options data showing an implied move of 0.7% in either direction. Globally, central banks are starting to tilt more hawkish, upending yields. Meanwhile, while buyside investors have said they’re feeling risk-on into 2026, a poll of Goldman Sachs clients shows their bullish views about AI and US stocks are moderating.

Elsewhere, a recent jump in Treasury yields has curbed risk appetite as traders grow cautious about the pace of monetary easing beyond Wednesday’s meeting. Money markets now see two cuts in 2026 after a likely 25bps hawkish cut tomorrow, a retreat from more optimistic forecasts in recent weeks.

“Given all the tension in global bond markets at the moment, the meeting of the Fed could potentially add fuel to the fire,” said Vincent Juvyns, chief investment strategist at ING in Brussels. “Investors will also be watching very closely the results of Oracle and Broadcom. There’s a lot at stake this week.”

Stoxx 600 little changed, with outperformance for German and Italian stocks, offset by weakness in France. The defense sector is rallying as Germany prepares to authorize a record amount of orders for military gear and services. Other sectors are muted amid concerns about the path of monetary policy at global central banks. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

  • Orsted shares jump as much as 4.4% to their highest level in four months after a US federal judge ruled President Donald Trump’s executive order banning new wind projects is illegal.
  • Rusta gains as much as 13%, the most since June, after the Swedish discount retailer reported second-quarter earnings that DNB Carnegie described as “much stronger than expected,” with sales growth accelerating.
  • Man Group shares gain as much as 5.2%, touching their highest level since February, after JPMorgan says there are “reasons to be cheerful” about the European diversified financials sector heading into 2026, with a brighter economic outlook offering a supportive backdrop for equity markets.
  • Thungela shares rally as much as 6.7% after the coal miner said in a statement that it expects its export saleable production from its South African operations for 2025 to exceed its guidance range.
  • BAT shares decline as much as 5.4% after the company said it expects revenue growth in 2026 at the lower end of its mid-term guidance.
  • Thyssenkrupp shares slide as much as 13%, paring this year’s huge gains, after the German industrial firm’s 2026 guidance missed estimates. Morgan Stanley said the weak outlook outweighed a full-year results beat.
  • Air France-KLM shares fall as much as 11%, the most intraday in a month, after CMA CGM offered about €325m senior unsecured bonds due 2028 exchangeable for shares of the airline operator.
  • EssilorLuxottica shares fall as much as 5%, the most since May, on competition concerns after Alphabet’s Google said it’s working to create two different categories of artificial intelligence-powered smart glasses.
  • OCI shares slump as much as 18%, reaching a record low, after the Dutch chemical maker announced a merger with Orascom Construction, an engineering and construction contractor based in Abu Dhabi.
  • Gerresheimer shares drop as much as 8.9% after Morpheus Research published a report on the German company and said it’s short the stock.

Earlier in the session, Hang Seng Tech Index drops more than 1.5% and mainland China indexes are better offered. The ChiNext stands out with a modest gain. Kospi, Taiex and ASX 200 indexes are nursing small losses, while Japanese stocks are broadly unchanged.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index marginally weaker. Aussie dollar among the strongest major currencies after the RBA said it was done with rate cuts in this cycle, which sent Aussie bond yields soaring.

In rates, bonds are recovering slightly from the selloff in the prior session in Europe, with outperformance in longer maturities. Ten-year bund yields down two basis points. Treasuries mixed, with yields lower at the long end, unchanged at the short. 10-year TSY yields, little changed around 4.165%, trails bunds and gilts in the sector by 1.5bp and 0.5bp. Treasury curve spreads are mostly within a basis point of Monday’s closing levels, with 5s30s near 105bp holding Monday’s sharp flattening move. Rangebound price action precedes 10-year note auction at 1pm New York time, following October JOLTS job openings data during US morning. Treasury coupon auctions cycle continues with $39 billion 10-year reopening, a day earlier than normal to avoid coinciding with FOMC communications. Cycle concludes Thursday with $22 billion 30-year bond reopening. WI 10-year yield near 4.165% is ~9bp cheaper than the November sale, which tailed by 0.6bp

In commodities, gold prices higher, up by around $12 to $4,202/oz. Oil prices fluctuating, with Brent futures trading up to around $62.60/barrel.

Looking ahead, the US economic calendar includes September Leading index and October JOLTS job openings (10am)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini little changed
  • Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
  • Russell 2000 mini little changed
  • Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
  • DAX +0.4%
  • CAC 40 -0.4%
  • 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.16%
  • VIX +0.1 points at 16.77
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1213.31
  • euro little changed at $1.1648
  • WTI crude +0.4% at $59.1/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • Trump Says U.S. Will Allow Nvidia H200 Chip Sales to China, Get 25% Cut: BBG
  • China set to limit access to Nvidia’s H200 chips despite Trump export approval: FT
  • China’s top leaders are signaling they are on alert for a potential flareup of tensions in global commerce as they draw up economic plans for next year, after amassing a record trade surplus despite the tariff war with the US: BBG
  • President Donald Trump signaled he could impose fresh tariffs on agricultural products, including Canadian fertilizer and Indian rice, the latest sign that protracted negotiations with two US trading partners could drag on: BBG
  • US farmers said the Trump administration’s $12bln aid package brings temporary relief, but is unlikely to kickstart a lasting recovery for the American farm economy, according to Bloomberg.
  • Oil market faces ‘super glut’ as supply surge hits prices, Trafigura warns: FT
  • China’s Manufacturing Is Booming Despite Trump’s Tariffs: WSJ
  • Foreign investors are storming into Japan’s once-placid government bond market, exposing the world’s second-largest pool of sovereign debt to bouts of volatility sparked by traders thousands of miles away: BBG
  • German lawmakers are set to approve 29 military procurement contracts worth a record €52 billion ($61 billion) next week, part of the government’s push to transform the Bundeswehr into Europe’s strongest conventional army: BBG
  • South Korea’s National Pension Service has recently started selling dollars to bolster the won, according to a person familiar with the matter, reviving earlier efforts to support the currency: BBG
  • Investors increase bets on ECB rate rise in threat to dollar: FT
  • Chinese stocks slumped in Hong Kong as investors reacted to a lack of stimulus signals from a meeting of top Communist Party leaders and turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision: BBG
  • Lithuania declares state of emergency over smuggler balloons from Belarus: FT
  • Trump Rails Against Europe, Threatens Expanded Anti-Drug Strikes: BBG
  • Boaz Weinstein’s $2bn flagship hedge fund sinks amid buoyant markets: FT
  • Warner Bros. Rival Bids Put Spotlight on Flagging Cable Networks: BBG

Trade/Tariffs

  • US President Trump said he spoke with Chinese President Xi very recently and thinks that China will buy even more soybeans than promised. Trump separately announced that he informed Chinese President Xi that the US will allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers in China and other countries, while Trump added that President Xi responded positively, and that 25% will be paid to the US. Furthermore, Trump said the Department of Commerce is finalising the details, and that the same approach will apply to AMD (AMD), Intel (INTC) and other great US companies.
  • China is set to limit access of NVIDIA's (NVDA) H200 chips despite export approval from US President Trump, via FT citing sources; no decision has been made on the matter
  • US President Trump posted that ''Mexico continues to violate our comprehensive Water Treaty, and this violation is seriously hurting our BEAUTIFUL TEXAS CROPS AND LIVESTOCK. Mexico still owes the U.S over 800,000 acre-feet of water for failing to comply with our Treaty over the past five years." Trump added that the "U.S needs Mexico to release 200,000 acre-feet of water before December 31st, and the rest must come soon after. As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water. That is why I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn’t released, IMMEDIATELY."
  • US lawmakers urged US President Trump to ease Japan tariffs amid Chinese economic coercion, according to Nikkei.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they are working on an India trade deal.
  • Chinese Premier Li said at the '1 + 10' dialogue with the heads of major international economic organisations that the global economy in 2025 is marked by turbulence and twists, creating urgent demand for reforming and improving global economic governance, while he added that tariffs have dominated global discussions on the economy this year and that mutually destructive consequences of tariffs becoming increasingly evident. Li said calls for free trade are growing louder and that AI is also becoming central to global trade discussions.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were subdued following the lacklustre lead from Wall Street with markets cautious ahead of the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday, while downside was stemmed in the region amid a further warming of US-China trade relations after US President Trump confirmed that the US will permit NVIDIA (NVDA) to sell its H200 chips to China. ASX 200 was pressured following the RBA rate decision where the central bank unsurprisingly kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, although comments from RBA Governor Bullock at the press conference leaned hawkish as she stated that it looks like more rate cuts are not needed and she doesn't see rate cuts in the foreseeable future, while she added that the outlook is for an extended pause or hikes, but would not put a probability on it. Nikkei 225 lacked conviction and swung between gains and losses within a narrow range following recent currency weakness and anticipation that the BoJ will hike rates next week. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued after the readout from yesterday's Politburo meeting underwhelmed, as some were hoping for more forceful measures, while chipmakers in China were pressured in early trade after US President Trump's announcement to allow NVIDIA to sell chips to approved customers in China.

Top Asian News

  • RBA kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, as expected, with the decision unanimous and noted that recent data suggests the risk to inflation have tilted to the upside, but it will take a little longer to assess persistence of inflationary pressures, while it added that private demand is recovering, and labour market conditions still appear a little tight, though modest easing is expected. RBA said the board judged it appropriate to remain cautious and update its outlook as the data evolves, with the board to be attentive to the data and evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions. Furthermore, the board judged that some of the recent increase in underlying inflation was due to temporary factors, while it is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment, and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that.
  • RBA Governor Bullock said at the post-meeting press conference that inflation and jobs data will be important for the board meeting in February, while she added that it looks like more rate cuts are not needed. Bullock stated they did not consider a rate cut and did not explicitly consider the case for a rate hike at this meeting, but discussed the circumstances in which tightening might be required. Bullock said if inflation looks persistent, it will raise questions for policy, while she would not put timing on any future move and will proceed meeting by meeting. Furthermore, she doesn't see rate cuts in the foreseeable future and noted the outlook is for an extended pause or hikes, but would not put a probability on it.
  • China's Premier said "we are confident in completing economic goals this year", according to Xinhua.
  • BoJ Governor Ueda said he believes that the economy will go back to positive growth in Q4 and beyond that. "Because we are foreseeing convergence to 2% of the underlying component, we have been adjusting the degree of easing slowly". As Japanese automakers have chosen to lower export prices without passing them to US consumers, this has stabilised the volume of auto exports, not creating negative effects on employment and production in Japan. Strong enough momentum in domestic price and wage dynamics to prevent negative shocks from having a large impact on inflation. At the moment, not seeing a very high risk of inflation, especially underlying inflation accelerating in the wake of fiscal stimulus. Watching the possibility of food inflation and JPY weakness altering inflation expectations. It is the government's job to deliver on medium to long-term fiscal sustainability. Keep an eye on bank exposure to non-bank financial institutions abroad. Exchange rates should follow fundamentals. How exchange rates will affect our inflation outlook is a "very important question for us."
  • BoJ Governor Ueda said he won't comment on specifics on interest rates but noted that long-term interest rates are rising rather rapidly recently, adding that it will increase JGB purchases if long-term rates make abrupt moves.

European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) opened with mild gains, then clambered higher soon after the cash open - a move which ultimately proved fleeting, with indices now broadly in the red. European sectors opened without bias and continue to fare this way. Financials, Insurance and Banks lead the charge, helped by the continued constructive yield environment, while Basic Resources underperforms as the metals rally loses steam.

Top European News

  • European Parliament said parliament and member state negotiators reached a provisional deal to update EU rules on sustainability reporting and due diligence requirements for companies. Furthermore, it stated that companies with more than 1,000 employees and annual turnover over EUR 450mln are to report on their sustainability, while large corporations with more than 5,000 employees and annual turnover of more than EUR 1.5bln are to carry out due diligence on their adverse impacts.
  • Germany is to approve EUR 52bln in military orders, via Bloomberg.
  • NBP's Duda said it is necessary to wait before cutting rates to assess the impact of reductions already made on the economy.

FX

  • DXY resides within a narrow 98.97-99.14 range with the index testing 99.00 to the downside shortly after the European cash equity open, with newsflow on the quieter side as trades look ahead to tomorrow's FOMC with eyes on the dot plots. The index remains well within yesterday's 98.79-99.22 parameter. Trade headlines have been more conciliatory between the US and China, after US President Trump announced that he informed Chinese President Xi that the US will allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers in China and other countries. On the docket ahead, the US data slate features weekly ADP jobs data, as well as JOLTs data for September (7.199mln expected vs a prior 7.227mln; in August, the vacancy rate was unchanged at 4.3%, while the quits rate eased by 0.1ppts to 1.9%).
  • AUD is the outperformer this morning after the RBA maintained its Cash Rate at 3.60%, as unanimously forecast, while support was seen during the post-meeting press conference where RBA Governor Bullock noted that it looks like more rate cuts are not needed. AUD/USD tested levels near 0.6650 from a 0.6610 base.
  • JPY lags following yesterday's weakness on the 7.6 magnitude earthquake, which did later see all advisories eventually lifted. USD/JPY saw a dip lower on hawkish commentary from BoJ Governor Ueda after he noted, "How exchange rates will affect our inflation outlook is "very important question for us." USD/JPY resides in a 155.74-156.43 range after tipping yesterday's 155.98 peak, with the next upside level the 28th Nov peak at 156.58.
  • GBP and EUR trade with modest gains in quiet newsflow, with GBP/USD on either side of 1.3350 and EUR/USD printing on either end of 1.1650. Strength in the GBP in the early part of this morning's session lacked a clear catalyst.

Fixed Income

  • USTs were initially slightly this morning, but then caught a slight bid. Currently trading at the upper end of a 112-05+ to 112-12+ range. The upside seen in the morning came alongside FX-related commentary by BoJ Governor Ueda, which sparked some demand in the Yen, which led to a broader pick-up across havens (bonds/gold). On the trade front, President Trump said he would allow NVIDIA H200 chip shipments to China, which has seemingly lifted sentiment a touch in Europe/US equity futures. Elsewhere, Trump threatened Mexico with an extra 5% tariff amidst a water dispute. Ahead, markets await the Weekly US ADP Prelim Average, JOLTS data and a 10-year auction.
  • Bunds started the European session with modest strength, attempting to scale back some of its recent losses; currently trading within a 127.26 to 127.66 range; the low for the day is a couple of ticks below Monday’s trough. Though soon after the cash open, Bunds moved a touch lower amidst a pick-up in European equities – a move which ultimately proved fleeting, with Bunds now back in the green by roughly 15 ticks. Earlier, German Exports rose 0.1% (exp. -0.5%), whilst Imports disappointed – overall, ING suggests the data shows that Germany is unlikely to be pulled out of stagnation by its exports. Most recently, in line with peers, the benchmark has picked up to trade near highs.
  • OATs are higher, but underperforming vs European peers, as traders count down their clocks to a key National Assembly Vote on the 2026 social security budget; if passed, PM Lecornu would have successfully resolved issues which have led to failure for the prior two PMs. In brief, recent pension/healthcare spending concessions have earned Lecornu support from the Socialists, who are expected to vote in favour of the bill, whilst support from the right has waned – Politico writes that “it’s not looking great”. Overall, the outcome could heighten political turbulence and uncertainty over France’s plans to address gaps in its public finances.
  • Gilts trade higher alongside peers; currently at the upper end of a 90.63 to 91.22 range. Focus ahead will be on the BoE TSC hearing, with the likes of Ramsden (Dove), Lombardelli (Neutral), Mann (Hawk) and Dhingra (Dove) all set to appear.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent have seemed to have stabilised following Monday's risk-off selloff. Benchmarks extended below Monday's trough of USD 58.62/bbl and USD 62.34/bbl, respectively, to a low of USD 58.59/bbl and USD 62.24/bbl as the APAC session came to an end. Thus far, benchmarks trade muted in a c. USD 0.40/bbl range with the EIA to release its STEO later today.
  • Spot XAU failed to extend beyond the key support level at USD 4176/oz, troughing at USD 4170/oz, before reversing higher as the dollar continued to weaken ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. XAU gradually rose c. USD 35/oz higher to a session high of USD 4209/oz as the European session gets underway, aided by hawkish comments by BoJ's Ueda, which pressured USD/JPY and in turn, weakened DXY.
  • 3M LME Copper continued to pull back from its ATH formed in Monday's session, set at USD 11.75k/t, following a disappointing readout from the Politburo and a cautious risk tone ahead of the FOMC meeting. The red metal gradually fell from a session high of USD 11.66k/t to a trough of USD 11.43k/t throughout the APAC session. Currently, losses have been slightly pared back as the European session gets underway, with 3M LME Copper trading back above USD 11.5k/t
  • Iraq sets January Basrah medium crude official selling price to Asia at -USD 1.05/bbl to Oman/Dubai average.
  • Ukraine's Naftogaz says Russian drones attacked its gas infrastructure

Geopolitics

  • Israeli military announced it struck infrastructure belonging to Hezbollah in several areas in southern Lebanon.
  • EU Commission President von der Leyen said as peace talks are ongoing, the EU remains ironclad in its support for Ukraine, while she added that the goal is a strong Ukraine, on the battlefield and at the negotiating table. Furthermore, she said Ukraine's sovereignty must be respected, and Ukraine's security must be guaranteed in the long term as a first line of defence for our union.
  • Russia's Kremlin said European claims that Russian President Putin plans to attack NATO are "complete nonsense".

US Event Calendar

  • 6:00 am: Nov NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 98.3, prior 98.2
  • 10:00 am: Sep Leading Index, est. -0.31%
  • 10:00 am: Oct JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7117k

DB's Jim reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Zurich after a day in sunny Geneva yesterday as the 2026 World Outlook roadshow moves on to audiences that don't quite rival the recent Oasis tour but are decent nonetheless. Tickets are undoubtedly cheaper. Bonds continue to cheapen up as well as the recent sell-off has showed no signs of letting up over the last 24 hours, with global yields moving higher as investors reacted to several headlines, including hawkish comments from multiple officials. So by the close, 10yr bund yields (+6.4bps) had posted their biggest daily jump since August to reach 2.86%, which is their highest level since March after the fiscal stimulus announcements. Meanwhile in the US, 10yr Treasury yields (+2.9bps) closed at 4.17%, their highest since September. Remember that’s building on the +12bps increase last week, which was already the biggest weekly jump since the Liberation Day turmoil in April. This follows big recent rises in yields in places like Japan, Australia, Canada and New Zealand in recent weeks. For yesterday the yield rise meant that the S&P 500 (-0.35%) fell back after four consecutive gains.  

The initial catalyst for yesterday's additional sell-off was a Bloomberg interview with the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel. That came out before the European open, with her suggesting that “I’m rather comfortable” with expectations that the next move would be a hike. Moreover, she made other hawkish comments, saying that “risks to inflation are tilted to the upside”, and that she believed that the equilibrium or neutral interest rate that neither restricts nor stimulates economic activity (r*) could rise because of AI and public investment. So collectively, that served as the initial trigger for the selloff, and euro overnight index swaps for December 2026 moved +8.0bps higher on the day.

Unsurprisingly, this hawkish repricing led to a huge reaction among European government bond yields, particularly at the front end. For instance, yields on 2yr German (+6.4bps) and French (+5.8ps) debt moved up to their highest level since March, right after the German government had announced their plans to reform the constitutional debt brake to permit extra borrowing. And notably, the 30yr German yield (+3.1bps) moved up to 3.46%, its highest level since summer 2011 as the Euro crisis escalated. So there was a real sense yesterday that markets were pricing back in a pre-GFC normal of higher long-term rates, particularly given the background concerns over the current fiscal trajectory.  

Putting all the yield moves in perspective, over the last month 10yr Australian (+36bps), Japanese (+26bps) New Zealand (+39bps), Canadian (+25ps) and German (+19bps) lead the way. The likes of the UK (+7bps) and the US (+6bps) have actually held in better, even if they are up more from their lows, but yesterday saw US yields rise as we heard from Kevin Hassett, who’s now considered the strong favourite (77% on Polymarket) to become the next Fed Chair. He was asked yesterday how many rate cuts there should be in 2026, but he struck a cautious tone, saying “what you need to do is watch the data.” So given his previous calls for more rate cuts, that was interpreted in a more hawkish light.

Those comments and the global backdrop meant investors meaningfully dialled back their expectations for Fed rate cuts next year. For instance, the amount of further cuts priced in by December 2026 came down -3.9bps on the day to 78bps. And in turn, that meant US Treasury yields moved higher across the curve. So the 2yr yield (+1.5bps) moved up to 3.58%, while the 10yr yield (+2.9bps to 4.17%) and the 30yr yield (+1.0bps to 4.80%) both reached their highest levels since September. Remember that the two-day FOMC meeting begins today ahead of tomorrow’s decision, and the last dot plot in September only signalled one further cut in 2026 after the December cut expected tomorrow. So the dot plot already has a more hawkish profile than futures are pricing, and there was also a wide dispersion around that, with 8 out of the 19 officials above the median, so it would only take two more to push that higher. So there’s heightened uncertainty among investors going into that.  

All this proved a tougher backdrop for risk assets, with the S&P 500 (-0.35%) falling back after a run of 4 consecutive gains. To be fair, the move kept the index less than 1% beneath its record high from late-October, but there was a clear loss of momentum as yields moved higher. The decline was broad-based, with 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sector groups down on the day, led by communication services (-1.77%) and materials (-1.66%). The Magnificent 7 (-0.91%) posted its worst day in over two weeks even as semiconductor stocks outperformed, led by a +1.72% gain for Nvidia. Meanwhile in Europe, the equity losses were more muted, but the STOXX 600 (-0.07%) also fell back.  

Overnight Mr Trump has granted permission for Nvidia to sell its H200 AI chip to China in exchange for a 25% surcharge for the government. Nvidia gained an extra 2% in after-hours trading.

Asian equity markets are predominantly weaker this morning with the Hang Seng (-1.10%) the largest underperformer in the region, with the CSI (-0.44%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.24%) also lower alongside the KOSPI (-0.41%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.45%). The Nikkei is flat alongside US equity futures.  

Overnight, the RBA has maintained its cash rate target at 3.60% in a unanimous decision, marking the third consecutive meeting in which rates have been held steady, following 75bps of cuts in 2025. The press conference was hawkish and emphasised that they are considering a hike and suggested February was under consideration. Following this, the Australian dollar is +0.33% higher against the US dollar, while yields on the policy-sensitive 3-year Australian government bonds have surged by +10.2bps to reach 4.14%. Meanwhile, 10-year yields have increased by +5.4bps, trading at 4.76% as we go to print. So the sell-off in G10 rates continues and Kiwi bond yields are up a similar amount this morning. However, 10-year JGBs are pausing for breath with 10yr yields down by -0.8bps overnight after closing +2.8bps higher yesterday, reaching another post-2007 high of 1.96%.  

Finally on Ukraine, there was no new progress on the peace talks, with President Zelenskiy saying there were still disagreements on territory, and that he wanted answers on security guarantees for Ukraine. After a meeting with UK’s Starmer, France’s Macron and Germany’s Merz in London, Zelenskiy added that Ukraine would share its revised plan with the US today. Oil prices did fall back yesterday, although that reflected the global sell-off rather than geopolitical developments, with Brent crude down -1.98% to $62.49/bbl.   

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the JOLTS report of job openings for September and October, and the NFIB’s small business optimism index for November. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Nagel, whilst the BoE’s Lombardelli, Ramsden, Mann and Dhingra will be appearing before the House of Commons’ Treasury Committee.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 08:34

ADP Weekly Employment Report Signals Rebound In Labor Market

Zero Hedge -

ADP Weekly Employment Report Signals Rebound In Labor Market

After a dismal few months, the US labor market turned up for the four weeks ending Nov. 22, 2025, private employers added an average of 4,750 jobs a week., according to ADP's new weekly employment data

This week’s positive number hints at an upswing in the labor market after four straight weeks of negative pulse estimates, after four straight weeks of losing jobs.

This follows the almost unprecedented decline in initial jobless claims last week (which some have argued was impacted by Thanksgiving Week irregularities).

Is this the start of the end of the Low-Fire, Low-Hire economy? It's a little too early to tell, especially after the 120,000 collapse in small business jobs last month reported by ADP.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 08:29

Gas Prices Drop To Lowest Level In Nearly 5 Years Across US

Zero Hedge -

Gas Prices Drop To Lowest Level In Nearly 5 Years Across US

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Gasoline prices have dropped to their lowest levels in nearly five years and stand at around $2.90 per gallon on average as of Monday, according to data from GasBuddy, a company that tracks gas prices.

“The national average has just slipped below $2.90 per gallon for the first time since May 2, 2021,” GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan wrote in a Sunday post on X.

He added that “at the current level of $2.897/gal (according to GasBuddy), the national average price of gasoline is at its lowest level in 1,680 days.”

In an analysis posted on Monday morning, GasBuddy said the average price for regular unleaded gas dropped 5 cents “over the last week,” and noted that the average price is down 17.6 cents from a month ago and is 7.3 cents lower than a year ago.

The most common gas price seen by drivers was $2.79 per gallon nationwide, a figure that GasBuddy said was down 20 cents from the previous week.

“With the national average falling further, we’re now at multi-year lows heading into Christmas,“ De Haan said in a statement on Monday accompanying the analysis.

”Barring any major disruptions, prices are likely to stay relatively low into the new year.”

Diesel prices have also dropped 5.1 cents over the past week, GasBuddy said, and now stand at $3.67 per gallon.

According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at around $2.95 as of Dec. 8. That’s down 5 cents from seven days ago, the association said. A year ago, the average price was roughly $3 per gallon, AAA data show.

Currently, California has the highest prices in the nation at $4.46 per gallon, followed by Hawaii at $4.43 and Washington state at $4.10, according to a map from the automotive organization. Oklahoma has the lowest at $2.36 per gallon.

The highest-ever average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gas was reached in mid-June 2022 when it topped $5, according to AAA’s figures.

President Donald Trump and administration officials have sought to demonstrate that their policies are working and that Americans are better off than during the previous administration.

The White House on Monday highlighted the GasBuddy report, saying it’s evidence that U.S. economic activity would soon pick up.

“It’s part of an emerging trend of strong economic news, backed up by data,” the administration said in a post on its website, referring to the gas prices report.

“In just the past week, Americans saw the national median rent fall for the fourth straight month, weekly jobless claims plummet to a three-year low, mortgage rates near their lowest level in a year, and consumer sentiment spike.”

Last week, Trump signed a measure to scrap fuel-economy requirements for gas-powered vehicles, known as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, in a move that he said would reduce the cost of living for many. Administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have said the current government is dealing with inflation-related problems that were left behind by the previous administration.

“Inflation is a composite number, and I think we are on a glide path to lower inflation over the coming months,” Bessent said during a CBS News interview on Sunday.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 08:05

Pepsi Cuts Deal With Activist: Plans Product Overhaul And Layoffs

Zero Hedge -

Pepsi Cuts Deal With Activist: Plans Product Overhaul And Layoffs

PepsiCo reached a deal with activist investor Elliott Investment Management that will trim its U.S. product lineup by 20%, prioritize affordability for working-poor consumers, and move forward with a workforce restructuring as part of a broader cost-cutting push.

Billionaire Paul Singer's Elliott built a $4 billion stake in Pepsi earlier this year, aiming to overhaul a junk-food giant that has been steadily losing ground to rivals in both soda and snacks.

Elliott's view: Pepsi's sprawling brand portfolio had become unmanageable, while its beverage business needed a serious turnaround to stop the slide in market share and correct the bear market in stock price.

That's precisely what a Pepsi press release stated: the company reached a "constructive engagement" with Elliott and was fully embraced by shareholders.

Here are the incoming changes to engineer a turnaround:

  • Push affordability by expanding lower-price everyday value across brands and channels.

  • Launch "clean-label" innovation (more protein, fiber, whole grains; no artificial colors or flavors), including "Simply NKD" snacks and Doritos Protein in 2026.

  • Cut costs aggressively: three plant closures, multiple line shutdowns, and nearly a 20% SKU reduction in the U.S. by early 2026.

  • Shift savings into marketing and consumer value, with plans for greater in-store presence next year.

"We appreciate our collaborative engagement with PepsiCo's management team and the urgency they have demonstrated," said Marc Steinberg, Partner at Elliott.

Steinberg said, "We believe the plan announced today to invest in affordability, accelerate innovation and aggressively reduce costs will drive greater revenue and profit growth. In addition, we welcome the comprehensive review of PepsiCo's North America supply chain and go-to-market systems, as well as PepsiCo's commitment to Board refreshment. We are confident that PepsiCo will create substantial value for shareholders as it executes on this plan, and we look forward to continued engagement with the Company."

Pepsi also offered an update to its outlook, forecasting organic revenue growth of 2% to 4% in fiscal 2026, versus the Wall Street estimate of about 2.7%:

  • Organic revenue growth: 2–4% (aiming toward high end in 2H 2026).

  • Net revenue growth (including FX and M&A): 4–6%.

  • Productivity: record savings driven by automation, digitalization, and simplification.

  • Margin: at least 100 bps of core operating margin expansion over three years.

  • Core EPS growth: ~5–7% (or 7–9% ex global minimum tax effects).

Separately, Bloomberg News reports that employees at its headquarters in Purchase, New York, as well as in Chicago and Plano, Texas, have been asked to work remotely this week - an ominous sign that layoffs could be announced imminently.

"We will be making structural changes to our business that will affect some roles in the company," Jennifer Wells, chief people officer in North America, wrote in a message to workers at the start of the week that the media outlet viewed.

In markets, Pepsi shares remain locked in a bear market, down about 25% from their 2023 peak, though that's an improvement from the roughly 35% drawdown seen this past summer.

Commenting on the changes, Goldman analyst Bonnie Herzog, who rates the stock "Buy," believes the series of detailed multi-year plan focused on accelerating growth, improving margins, simplifying the product lineup, and creating everyday value for consumers in North America positions the company for 2026.

Herzog noted, "Although many of these initiatives are not necessarily new—and some have been underway for a while now (i.e. sharper value, accelerated innovation pipeline, etc.)—we're encouraged by mgmt's transparency and the clear set of steps that mgmt can take to accelerate growth going forward. As such, we continue to think PEP is set to enter '26 from a stronger position—and therefore we continue believe PEP has one of the most positive risk-reward profiles within broader staples heading into '26, especially given its attractive valuation, particularly relative to KO & PG."

Herzog's full note on Pepsi is available in the usual place for ZeroHedge Pro readers.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 07:35

No Restrictions On How 'Trump Accounts' Can Be Used: Bessent

Zero Hedge -

No Restrictions On How 'Trump Accounts' Can Be Used: Bessent

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview that “Trump Accounts” established by the administration can be used for any purpose.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks with reporters outside the West Wing of the White House in Washington on Oct. 22, 2025. Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

For children born between 2025 and 2028, the government will deposit $1,000 into their accounts as a one-time payment under a plan established in the Republican-backed One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which President Donald Trump signed into law earlier this year. Parents or guardians can start contributing to those accounts starting on July 4 of next year.

It will be invested in a widely diversified, low-cost index, and then it will be available,” Bessent told CBS News’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday.

“It is a piece of the American economy for every child, and they will be able to take it out when they’re 18, or they can convert it to a more IRA-type program and keep it for their retirement.”

When asked by CBS’s Margaret Brennan whether there are any restrictions on how people use money from the accounts, Bessent replied: “No.”

This is going to bring a whole group of new investors into the market,” the Treasury secretary said.

“We’re going to couple it with a big amount of financial literacy, so that children understand what they own.”

Under the new law, Trump Accounts are available to any American child under 18 with a Social Security number. Account contributions must be invested in an index fund that tracks the overall stock market. When the children turn 18, they can withdraw the funds to put toward their education, buy a home, or start a business.

The $1,000 deposits are slated to end just after the 2028 presidential election.

Bessent’s comments come as billionaires Michael and Susan Dell supersized the Trump administration’s offer, pledging $6.25 billion—$250 each for an additional 25 million children born before the cutoff period.

“We believe that if every child can see a future worth saving for, this program will build something far greater than an account. It will build hope and opportunity and prosperity for generations to come,” said Michael Dell, the founder and CEO of Dell Technologies, whose net worth Forbes has estimated to be $151 billion.

Trump said other billionaires would also be donating, adding, “I’ll be doing it, too.”

At the same time, the Trump administration has suggested a $2,000 dividend payment to low- and middle-income people in 2026 derived from tariffs imposed earlier this year. Bessent and other White House officials have said that those payments would require an act of Congress, while at least two Republican lawmakers have signaled they may not support the plan.

During a Cabinet meeting last week, Trump again said he backs dividend payments to Americans while also saying his tariffs should generate enough revenue to pay down the U.S. national debt.

Going a step further, the president said he believes the import taxes would allow the reduction or elimination of federal income taxes.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 07:20

Consumer Stock Bosses Reinforce 'K-Shaped' Bifurcation Theme

Zero Hedge -

Consumer Stock Bosses Reinforce 'K-Shaped' Bifurcation Theme

A bifurcated consumer landscape is one of the top themes (besides everything AI) of the third-quarter earnings season. Even though most consumer companies beat expectations and raised FY25 guidance, notably Dollar General, Five Below, and Ulta, management teams highlighted an unsettling financial squeeze on working-class and lower-income consumers

Readers have seen in prior notes how the "K-shaped" economy has divided consumers into two groups. Now that earnings season is wrapping up this week, it's worth drilling deeper into what corporate executives of these companies are saying

Below, Goldman Sachs Managing Director Kate McShane highlights consumer health commentary from management teams across the stocks in her coverage universe.

"This quarter, many companies emphasized that consumers remain cautious and focused on value," McShane noted.

All commentary below from retailers reinforced the picture of a bifurcated consumer, with lower- and middle-income households tightening, value retailers benefiting from trade-downs, and discretionary or larger-ticket categories seeing demand slowdowns.  

Last month, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered insight into when the light at the end of the tunnel may finally emerge for working-class households. He believes that the inflection point could come as early as the first quarter, driven by a combination of "substantial tax refunds" and "real wage increases," and even described next year as "fantastic."

McShane's full note, available to ZeroHedge Pro subscribers, provides additional color on the consumer environment along with her recommendations and 12-month price targets for the retailers mentioned above.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 06:55

Another $222 Million Saved In Terminated Contracts: DOGE

Zero Hedge -

Another $222 Million Saved In Terminated Contracts: DOGE

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Federal agencies have terminated and descoped 43 wasteful contracts with a ceiling value of $3.5 billion, saving $222 million in taxpayer funds, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) said in a Dec. 6 post on X.

The Department of Government Efficiency website displayed on a phone, in this photo illustration. Oleksii Pydsosonnii/The Epoch Times

The canceled contracts included “a $4.3M Dept. of Treasury IT contract to ‘develop a comprehensive strategic narrative and management approach aimed at the Human Centered Transformation and Enhanced Partnerships,’” DOGE said.

A $29 million Department of Commerce consulting contract for “providing the necessary staff to perform Program Management, providing planning, analysis, and support in managing projects” was terminated as well, it said.

The DOGE initiative has so far saved $214 billion as of Oct. 4, which amounts to more than $1,329 per taxpayer.

The savings were achieved through a combination of asset sales, workforce reductions, interest savings, regulatory savings, fraud and improper payments elimination, and grant cancellations.

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has registered the most savings under DOGE, followed by the General Services Administration, Social Security Administration, Office of Personnel Management (OPM), and Small Business Administration (SBA).

In a Nov. 24 post on X, DOGE rebutted rumors that the initiative was being shut down following a Reuters article that included a quote from OPM director Scot Kupor saying DOGE “doesn’t exist.” Kupor later claimed the article had been selectively edited to create an attention-grabbing narrative.

DOGE said the Reuters story was “fake news,” adding that the Trump administration “was given a mandate by the American people to modernize the federal government and reduce waste, fraud, and abuse.”

During an Oct. 31 interview with podcaster Joe Rogan, former DOGE head Elon Musk said DOGE was continuing to reduce waste and fraud in the government system.

Musk said that since he left the initiative in May, DOGE has become less publicized because people who oppose it now have no single person to target.

My death threat level went ballistic, you know, was like a rocket going to orbit. But now that I’m not in D.C., I guess they don’t really have a person to attack anymore,” Musk said.

According to DOGE, some of the “strangest, most baffling uses” of government funding it uncovered during its tenure include an $814,000 grant from the HHS for daily diary examination of “the influence of intersectional stigma on blood pressure” and an $801,000 HHS grant for “structural racism and discrimination in older men’s health inequities.”

In a Dec. 6 post on X, DOGE praised SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler for taking action to end abuse in the agency’s 8(a) Business Development Program.

The program is aimed at helping small business owners deemed to be socially or economically disadvantaged. Participants gain access to contracting opportunities in the federal marketplace.

The SBA said in a Dec. 5 statement that it had sent letters to more than 4,300 8(a) participants, asking them to produce financial documents for the past three years.

“There is mounting evidence that the 8(a) Program designed for ‘socially and economically disadvantaged’ businesses went from being a targeted program to a pass-through vehicle for rampant abuse and fraud—especially during the Biden Administration, which aggressively prioritized [diversity, equity, and inclusion] over merit in federal contracting,” Loeffler said.

Pass-through refers to a type of business in which the entity isn’t taxed; instead, the individual owners are taxed.

Business owners who fail to comply with the records request by Jan. 5 risk losing their eligibility to participate in the 8(a) program.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 06:30

These Are America's Most-Murderous Cities

Zero Hedge -

These Are America's Most-Murderous Cities

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, highlights the top 30 U.S. cities with the highest homicide rates per 100,000 residents, offering a population-adjusted view that goes beyond raw totals.

The data for this visualization comes from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention via USAFacts.

New Orleans and Memphis Lead the Nation

New Orleans tops the list with 46 homicides per 100,000 people, followed closely by Memphis at 41. Both cities consistently rank near the top due to long-term structural challenges, including poverty, strained social services, and persistent violent crime.

Rank Major City State Homicides per 100K Total Homicides 1 New Orleans LA 46 166 2 Memphis TN 41 372 3 St. Louis MO 38 106 4 Baltimore MD 36 205 5 Washington, DC   36 244 6 Birmingham AL 28 187 7 Philadelphia PA 26 402 8 Kansas City MO 25 182 9 Richmond VA 23 53 10 Indianapolis IN 22 211 11 Milwaukee WI 21 190 12 Louisville KY 19 146 13 Cleveland OH 18 220 14 Detroit MI 17 304 15 Norfolk VA 17 40 16 Atlanta GA 16 175 17 Chicago IL 16 805 18 Jacksonville FL 15 153 19 Nashville TN 15 103 20 Dallas TX 12 319 21 Columbus OH 12 159 22 Houston TX 11 540 23 Denver CO 11 77 24 San Antonio TX 10 218 25 Cincinnati OH 10 83 26 New York City (The Bronx) NY 9 128 27 Rochester NY 9 69 28 Las Vegas NV 9 207 29 Portland OR 9 70 30 Oakland CA 8 136 31 Oklahoma City OK 8 66 32 Phoenix AZ 7 337 33 Pittsburgh PA 8 98 34 Charlotte NC 8 90 35 Orlando FL 7 104 36 Minneapolis MN 7 88 37 Los Angeles CA 7 659 38 Miami FL 7 176 39 Newark NJ 7 56 40 Virginia Beach VA 6 29 41 Seattle WA 6 141 42 Saint Paul MN 6 33 43 Fort Worth TX 6 134 44 Buffalo NY 6 57 45 Tampa FL 6 90 46 Grand Rapids MI 6 37 47 Sacramento CA 5 86 48 Austin TX 5 71 49 New York City (Brooklyn) NY 5 130 50 San Francisco CA 5 41

St. Louis and Baltimore also remain among the highest-rate cities. Together, these cities highlight the concentration of elevated homicide levels in portions of the South and Midwest.

Large Cities Show Lower Rates Despite High Total Homicides

Chicago, for example, recorded more than 800 homicides but ranks 16th with a rate of 16 per 100,000.

Houston, Los Angeles, and New York City boroughs show similar patterns. These cases demonstrate why total homicide numbers can be misleading when comparing risk across cities.

Mid-Sized Cities Also Experience Elevated Rates

Cities like Richmond, Indianapolis, and Milwaukee register rates between 20 and 23 per 100,000, placing them among the top 15 nationally. Although smaller in population, these mid-sized cities face similar drivers of violent crime found in larger metropolitan areas.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Mapped: U.S. Income Inequality by State on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 05:45

Why Does The End Of The World Look So Profitable?

Zero Hedge -

Why Does The End Of The World Look So Profitable?

Authored by Michael Kern via OilPrice.com,

  • Sovereignty is shifting from public institutions to private tech entities like Palantir and SpaceX, which secure massive government contracts and offer "governance as a service."

  • The AI boom's massive resource demands, particularly for energy and water, are being subsidized by the public, driving up costs while "efficiency" in the workplace leads to widespread job deletion and the flattening of the middle class.

  • To address this shift, a new social contract is required, including adopting a Sovereign Equity Model for government-funded ventures, implementing an automation tax to replace eroded payroll taxes, and moving toward Universal Basic Services.

The stock market is hitting record highs. GDP growth is in the green. Tech valuations are defying gravity... fueled by a promise that artificial intelligence is going to generate trillions of dollars in wealth.

And yet... everything feels kinda…terrible? 

Jobs are disappearing, not in a crash, but in a slow fade. Prices for essentials remain stubbornly high. The divide between the digital economy and physical reality has never been wider. 

We are told this is just a transition period. We are told that "efficiency" is messy... but necessary.

But the unease you feel isn’t irrational. The green arrows on the stock charts aren't measuring the health of the everyday economy anymore. They are measuring the success of a takeover.

We are watching a fundamental shift in how the state operates. Sovereignty is shifting from public institutions to a network of private entities. And in many ways, we are holding the door open for them.

When Silicon Valley Bought the State

For years, we talked about the "revolving door" between business and government.

The idea was that regulators would leave office and take cushy jobs at the companies they used to police. It was a conflict of interest... but one we understood.

That metaphor doesn't really fit anymore. This is more like a merger.

A specific network of billionaires and venture capitalists has moved beyond lobbying. They are now building the state infrastructure themselves.

They don't want to influence the rules. They want to be the ones writing the code that executes the rules.

Look at the players involved...

  • Peter Thiel: The billionaire founder of Palantir, who has explicitly stated that he no longer believes "freedom and democracy are compatible."

  • Elon Musk: Who uses his platforms to amplify "techno-populism" while securing massive government contracts.

  • Marc Andreessen: The venture capitalist whose "techno-optimist manifesto" calls for unlimited acceleration of technology, regardless of the social cost.

These aren't just businessmen. They are state-builders.

And they’ve spent the last decade funding a pipeline of personnel to place into key government positions. 

Thiel’s former chief of staff, Michael Kratsios, directed the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.

An executive from Anduril, a defense contractor backed by Thiel’s Founders Fund, was nominated as Army under-secretary while still holding up to $1 million in company stock.

This pipeline has paid off. In late 2024 and 2025, we saw a massive consolidation of federal power into private hands.

  • SpaceX: The company secured a $1.8 billion classified contract with the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) to build a vast spy satellite network.

  • 1789 Capital: A venture firm joined by Donald Trump Jr. backed a company called Vulcan Elements... which immediately landed a $620 million Pentagon contract.

  • Palantir: By late 2024, 55% of their revenue—roughly $1.7 billion—came directly from government sales.

They have realized that the most profitable business model isn't just selling products to consumers. It is offering "governance as a service."

We look at this efficiency and applaud it. But it raises a difficult question: When a private company runs the software that powers the state, who is actually in charge?

Abundance for Them, Scarcity for You

This new system requires fuel. A lot of it.

The leaders of this shift love to talk about "abundance." Listen to Sam Altman or other AI evangelists, and they will tell you we are on the verge of a "fusion utopia." They promise that AI will eventually solve climate change and give us limitless, clean energy.

That is the sales pitch. And maybe, one day, it will be true. But the reality today is a story of immediate resource pressure.

To power the massive data centers required for their AI models, these companies are tapping into the American energy grid at an unprecedented scale.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), power consumption from data centers is projected to more than double... rising from 415 terawatt-hours in 2024 to 945 TWh by 2030.

To put that in perspective... that is roughly the equivalent of adding the entire electricity consumption of Japan to the global grid in just six years.

Where will this power come from?

Not from the magic fusion reactors of the future. It is coming from the grid you rely on today.

In the PJM electricity market, which covers 13 states from Illinois to New Jersey, the demand from data centers has already driven capacity prices up.

To meet this need, the government is pivoting.

The Department of Energy is increasingly financing coal and natural gas expansion to keep the servers humming.

It creates a difficult dynamic:

  • Tech giants lock down "clean" baseload power... like Microsoft’s deal to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear plant solely for their own use.

  • The public grid is pushed to rely more on the volatile "spot market," often powered by gas.

  • Communities deal with the environmental cost... including the 6 billion gallons of water Google’s data centers consumed in 2024. 

It isn't necessarily malicious…It’s just math. But the math ends with the public paying higher bills to subsidize yet another part of the AI boom.

How "Efficiency" Is Deleting the Middle Class

This shift isn't just happening on your electric bill. It is happening in the workplace.

The stock market is rallying on the promise of "efficiency." And let's be honest, technology does make things more efficient. But for the workforce, "efficiency" often looks like a closing door.

We often look at headline-grabbing layoff numbers. And they are significant. In the first few months of 2025 alone, over 126,000 tech workers lost their jobs, according to Crunchbase.

But the bigger story is what happens after the layoff.

It is a phenomenon called "silent firing."

Companies aren't just letting people go. They are simply... not hiring replacements. When a worker leaves, the role is dissolved, or the tasks are handed over to software.

According to a report by Zety and Allwork, 73% of workers reported experiencing "quiet firing" tactics in 2025... where support is withdrawn and roles are made redundant without a formal announcement.

The entry-level jobs are being automated first. If you are a junior analyst, a copywriter, or a coder fresh out of college... the job you would have taken five years ago is harder to find.

This flattens the middle class. It creates a gap where new careers should be. And the industry leaders know this is happening.

The Trap of Outsourcing Global Sovereignty

This isn't just an American dynamic. This new model of "privatized sovereignty" is being exported globally.

Europe, for example, talks a lot about "Digital Sovereignty." 

They want to be independent. But building your own tech stack is expensive and slow. 

A report by the Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) estimates that achieving true digital independence would cost Europe €3.6 trillion.

Most nations aren't willing…or able…to pay that bill. So, they sign contracts.

74% of publicly listed European companies now depend entirely on U.S. tech stacks.

Look at the United Kingdom. 

The NHS signed a £330 million deal with Palantir to build its data platform. It’s efficient. It works. But it means a U.S. company now manages the health data of the British public.

Look at Ukraine. Their defense relies heavily on Starlink. It has saved countless lives. But it also means their military communications rely on the goodwill of a single American company.

It is a trade-off. These nations get the best technology in the world. But they become 'client states' in the process. You cannot have a truly independent foreign policy when your defense infrastructure is leased from a company in California.

And if a G7 nation can be reduced to a client state, the individual American worker doesn't stand a chance.

The architects know this. That is why they have prepared a specific 'safety net' for the people they intend to make obsolete. 

UBI Is a Trojan Horse

We need to talk about the "safety net" the architects are promising us.

Every tech billionaire has the same talking point: AI is going to take all the jobs, so we will need Universal Basic Income (UBI).

It sounds generous. It sounds inevitable. But if you look at their actions, it looks less like a safety net and more like a trap. While they preach UBI in the future, they are actively dismantling the machinery required to fund it in the present.

Elon Musk frequently claims that UBI will be "necessary" in an AI future. Yet, he lead the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), an initiative explicitly designed to slash federal spending by trillions.

You cannot have it both ways. 

You cannot gut the federal budget, fire the administrators, dismantle the tax collection agency (IRS), and then claim you are going to distribute a monthly check to 330 million Americans.

And it’s not like he’s going to give away his own money, either. 

He recently stated"The biggest challenge I find with my foundation is trying to give money away in a way that is truly beneficial to people."

He is literally telling us that he finds philanthropy "too difficult." If he can't figure out how to give away his own money, why should we trust him to build a system to give away the nation's money?

Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, advocates for a "Moore's Law for Everything," where we tax capital to fund a citizen's dividend. 

But his actual product, Worldcoin, reveals the true business model.

Worldcoin doesn't give you a dividend as a right of citizenship; it gives you a crypto token in exchange for scanning your iris. It creates a proprietary database of human biometrics owned by a private company. 

This is a customer acquisition strategy. He wants to build a user base, not a social safety net.

And for figures like Peter Thiel, UBI isn't even meant to help the poor. They aim to delete the government. 

UBI is the severance package for the "nanny state." The deal is simple: cut every citizen a check, and in exchange, eliminate Social Security, Medicare, and public infrastructure.

It sounds like freedom, but it is a bad trade.

Even if the check is large, it cannot replace the leverage of the state. 

The government negotiates wholesale prices for healthcare and runs transit at a loss for the public good. 

If you replace those systems with cash, you force individuals to buy "retail" in a market that knows exactly how much money they just received.

You are trading a durable right to services for a volatile subscription to them. And as any Netflix user knows, the price of the subscription always goes up.

Auditing the Myth of the "Self-Made" Empire

Before we talk about solutions, we have to look at the receipts. We need to audit the myth of the "self-made" techno-oligarch.

The narrative they sell is one of libertarian genius…that they built these empires in a garage, fighting against the heavy hand of the state.

The reality is that the state was their angel investor.

We…were their angel investor. 

  • Tesla survived its most critical moments thanks to a $465 million Department of Energy loan in 2010.

  • SpaceX exists because NASA awarded them huge contracts when the private market wouldn't touch them.

  • Palantir was literally incubated by the CIA’s venture arm, In-Q-Tel.

  • OpenAI is currently lobbying for a $500 billion infrastructure investment, asking for taxpayer-funded power grids and tax credits to build data centers.

On top of the direct cash, the founders and CEOs have benefited from a tax code designed to let them hoard it.

The 2017 tax cuts slashed the corporate rate from 35% to 21%, and loopholes allow them to borrow against their stock holdings to live tax-free, while the average worker pays income tax on every paycheck.

Then there is the hidden subsidy: resource extraction.

When a data center drains a local aquifer to cool its servers, forcing the local town to upgrade its water treatment plant... the town pays for that upgrade. The company gets the cooling; the public pays the bill.

But it isn't just water. It is the air itself.

Despite the 'net-zero' press releases, the dirty secret of the AI boom is diesel. 

To guarantee 99.999% reliability, these facilities rely on banks of massive generators. 

In some counties, data centers are permitted to burn enough fuel to rival a major airport, pumping exhaust into local lungs to ensure a chatbot in California never lags.

And it is the noise. 

These things are massive, concrete fortresses emitting a constant, low-frequency roar—a mechanical drone that penetrates walls and disrupts sleep for miles. It is the sound of local quality of life being liquidated for uptime.

Then there is the infrastructure bill. 

The enormous power draw requires billions in new transmission lines. But the tech companies often aren't the ones paying for those upgrades…you are.

We have socialized the risks, the infrastructure costs, and the pollution, but privatized the profits, the intellectual property, and the control.

Demanding a Return on Our Investment

So... where do we go from here?

The old social contract was simple: Corporations make money, and in return, they provide jobs.

That contract is void.

They are building systems explicitly designed to remove the need for jobs. 

The "Return on Investment" for the public is no longer employment. And it certainly isn't UBI, which remains a distant fantasy while the tax base to pay for it is eroded.

If the public is going to put up the capital, and deal with the consequences of ballooning energy and resource use, the public should see a return.

We need a new model for ROI.

The Sovereign Equity Model

In the venture capital world, if an investor puts up the money to de-risk a technology, they get equity. They get a seat on the board. They get a share of the upside.

Yet, when the U.S. taxpayer does it, we call it a "subsidy."

The CHIPS Act alone funneled $52 billion into semiconductor manufacturing

While the taxpayers who funded this got nothing but the bill.

This is bad business.

We need to adopt a Sovereign Equity Model. 

If a company wants a government loan, a tax credit, or a guaranteed energy contract, the government should take equity warrants in return. This isn't radical socialism… It’s basic capitalism. 

It is exactly what Warren Buffett did when he bailed out the banks in 2008. He didn't give them free money…he bought warrants that eventually made Berkshire Hathaway billions.

We already have a successful blueprint for this in the Alaska Permanent Fund

Since 1976, the state of Alaska has treated its oil reserves not as private bounty, but as a shared asset. When the oil flows, a portion of the revenue is deposited into a sovereign wealth fund, which then pays out an annual dividend to every resident.

We should treat our digital and energy infrastructure the same way. 

The profits from these government-backed equity stakes shouldn't disappear into the black hole of the general budget; they should flow into a ring-fenced National Wealth Fund that pays dividends directly to the citizenry.

If the American people are taking the risk, we should own the upside.

Tax the Robots to Save the Tax Base 

The U.S. tax code is currently rigged to favor machines over people.

If you hire a human, you pay payroll taxes, social security, and healthcare. If you buy a GPU cluster to do the same job, you get a tax write-off for "depreciation." We are effectively subsidizing our own replacement.

We need to rebalance the ledger with an automation adjustment.

This is not about punishing innovation… It’s about fiscal survival. Payroll taxes consistently account for roughly 30-35% of all federal revenue. If AI fulfills the promise of displacing millions of workers... that revenue stream collapses. The deficit explodes. The economy breaks.

Bill Gates, hardly a socialist, made this point explicitly"Right now, the human worker who does $50,000 worth of work in a factory... that income is taxed... If a robot comes in to do the same thing, you’d think that we’d tax the robot at a similar level."

If a company replaces a human workflow with an AI agent, the economic output remains, but the tax contribution vanishes. We need to attach a levy to that output.

Data Dividends

Data is the new oil. We have heard the cliché a thousand times. But we aren't treating it like oil.

The AI models generating trillions in value were trained on the collective output of humanity. They scraped our journalism, our art, our open-source code, and our personal data. They harvested the "digital commons" for free... processed it... and are now selling it back to us at $20 a month.

In any other industry, this would be theft. If you drill for oil on someone else's land, you pay royalties. If you use someone else's timber, you pay for the lumber.

The generative AI market is projected to reach $1.3 trillion by 2032….

The raw material that fuels that market cannot be priced at zero. If our data is the raw material for their product, we are the suppliers. And suppliers get paid.

Universal Basic Services 

If we give everyone a $5,000 UBI check, but the price of housing, energy, and internet doubles... we haven't solved anything. We have just subsidized the landlords and the utility companies.

The smartest Return on Investment is to lower the "overhead" of being alive in America.

We should move toward Universal Basic Services (UBS). Use the proceeds from the equity stakes, the automation taxes, and the data dividends to fund the inputs of the modern economy:

  • Public Compute: Treat processing power like a public utility. Build state-owned clusters available to researchers and startups at cost, breaking the pricing power of the tech giants.

  • Green Public Transit: Make car ownership optional, removing a massive monthly debt anchor from the working class.

  • Digital Infrastructure: High-speed internet should be a right, not a subscription service dominated by regional monopolies.

We are hitting the physical limits of our energy grid. We are seeing the limits of the old labor model. We might have to accept that "infinite growth" isn't compatible with a finite planet.

But "no growth" doesn't have to mean poverty.

The vibes are off because deep down... we know the deal has changed. We are moving from a world of public institutions to a world of private platforms.

The "New Operating System" is being installed. And it is faster. It is more efficient. It is undeniably impressive.

But we have to decide if we want to be the owners of this new future... or just the users.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 05:00

Zelensky Definitively Shuts Door On Trump Peace Plan, Won't Cede Territory

Zero Hedge -

Zelensky Definitively Shuts Door On Trump Peace Plan, Won't Cede Territory

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky while meeting with so-called 'coalition of the willing' European leaders in London on Monday definitively ruled out that his country will agree to cede territory as part of a peace deal.

He specified that the question of territorial compromise is why he has not reached agreement on Donald Trump's peace deal. "There are visions of the US, Russia and Ukraine – and we don’t have a unified view on Donbas," Zelensky told Bloomberg.

via Associated Press

Zelensky also wants much firmer security guarantees in the Washington plan. "There is one question I — and all Ukrainians — want to get an answer to: if Russia again starts a war, what will our partners do," he said shortly before meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, France's Emmanuel Macron and Germany's Friedrich Merz.

But the US peace plan hinges precisely on offering some level of significant territorial compromise, given that Moscow - which has the clear upper hand militarily - considers anything less to be an automatic non-starter not worth even discussing.

President Trump has recently declared that if Zelensky rejects the US plan, he should be ready to fight Russia alone and with much less Washington help. But is Trump ready to cut off weapons supplies altogether? 

Likely he'll be content with Europe buying them, and still transferring them to Kiev. But all of this could mean that US intel sharing is finally cut off.

Meanwhile Trump has belittled 'weak' Europe for seeking to scrap together a counter-plan:

President Trump mocked Europe's involvement on Monday, sharing an opinion piece which praises him for sideling "impotent Europeans" from the Ukraine peace talks. Trump has also criticized Zelensky, accusing him of not reading the latest peace proposals.

As for the US peace plan, it appears to have been primarily drafted by White House special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev - but so far the Zelensky government has complained that it's being cut out of the process.

Zelensky has throughout the war consistently rejected any proposal which features territorial concessions. He is supported especially be Ukrainian hardliners, both in the military and in parliament. 

Kiev and EU's maximalist counter-demands...

Now he's seeking to get European leaders to back him up, and they appear to be doing so. This is all a recipe for keeping the endless war going with no end in sight, and the proxy conflict nature of it continues to get dangerously out of hand.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 04:15

Machine-Speed Warfare: When Drones Decide Faster Than Humans

Zero Hedge -

Machine-Speed Warfare: When Drones Decide Faster Than Humans

Authored by Tamuz Itai via The Epoch Times,

On June 1, 2025, 117 quadcopters—total cost under $120,000—flew from hidden launchers inside Russia and crippled 10 strategic bombers across five air bases in a single morning.

Operation Spiderweb, as Ukraine called it.

It was a public demonstration of a new form of conflict: When the price of precision falls far enough, scale becomes inevitable, and scale forces autonomy. That autonomy, in turn, moves the battlefield faster than human minds can reliably follow. We seem to be entering the era of machine-speed warfare.

Quiet Arrival

For decades, militaries and the defense industrial base followed a rule: Better always meant more expensive. A modern fighter costs $100–120 million; its predecessor cost half that. The pattern held from tanks to submarines. Drones broke the pattern. A competent kamikaze drone now costs $400–$1,000 and can reliably kill a $5–10 million tank. A long-range one-way drone costs perhaps $30,000 and can sink a frigate. The cost curve of creating a precision threat has collapsed; the cost of defending against it has not.

Once the economics flip, quantity becomes quality all of its own. Ukraine says it already has the ability to produce drones at a rate of 4 million per year. Russia, Iran, and China are racing to match or surpass those numbers. When you are fielding not dozens but thousands of armed aircraft simultaneously, no human staff can micromanage them. You must delegate.

Delegation quickly becomes autonomy. Collision avoidance, target recognition, route replanning, reaction to jamming—these decisions migrate from human operators to software running on the drone itself. The more drones you have, the less you can afford to keep a human in the loop for every micro-decision. The battlefield begins to run at machine time.

High-Frequency Warfare

The closest civilian analogy is high-frequency trading, where humans merely set strategy, risk limits, and circuit-breakers. After that, algorithms trade at microsecond speeds with no realistic possibility of human intervention. Modern drone swarms are evolving into the military equivalent. Ukraine already retrains its targeting models weekly using fresh combat footage; Russia and China are likely doing the same. An 8 percent improvement in a computer-vision model on Tuesday can translate into battlefield dominance by Thursday.

That speed is terrifying. Machines do not get tired, do not hesitate, and do not ask whether escalation is politically wise. They simply execute. In a noisy, deceptive environment, small errors can compound rapidly. The cost in our case is not just money, but lives.

Control Theory

In a nutshell, the core idea is: a system measures something, decides what that measurement means, and reacts. Then it measures again and adjusts. Take, for example, a thermostat.

Every drone is a feedback control system: measure → decide → act → measure again. The enemy’s entire job is to break that loop—jam the measurement, spoof the decision, or block the action. When hundreds of such loops are running in parallel, all under deliberate attack, the default state is instability unless the loops were deliberately designed to be extraordinarily robust.

This is why purely technological answers are probably insufficient. Advantage also lies in strategy and doctrine—in the rules, restraints, and architectures nations choose to build into their systems from the beginning.

Robust Versus Loose

Not all autonomous systems are created equal. Some states and actors design robust systems: conservative rules of engagement baked into code, multiple verification layers before lethal action, and strong de-escalation biases under uncertainty. Others design loose systems: faster reaction times, higher tolerance for collateral damage, and a willingness to treat ambiguity as an opportunity rather than a red flag.

On current evidence, robust systems are winning the cost-exchange war. Ukraine, fighting with strict rules of engagement and heavy reliance on human oversight, has consistently achieved better loss ratios than Russia despite being vastly outnumbered in almost every traditional category. Restraint, paradoxically, forces greater precision, faster learning cycles, and more effective active defenses—all of which can compound into strategic advantage.

Loose systems look terrifying on paper, but in practice they bleed money, invite sanctions, and generate atrocity footage that fuels the other side’s alliances and recruitment. Every war crime committed by a loose actor is a strategic gift to the robust one.

The Flash-War Risk

Tom Clancy understood the danger of misinterpretation under time pressure. In “The Sum of All Fears” (1991), the plot hinges on a false-flag nuclear attack, masterminded by a third party, designed to make the United States and the Soviet Union blame each other and stumble into war. Today, we do not need a nuclear weapon to create the same cascade. Two hundred spoofed drones launched from a fishing boat, carrying the electronic signature of a great power, could do it in 20 minutes.

The battlefield is already producing miniature versions of this story dozens of times per day: A drone drifts across a sensitive line because of wind or jamming, an opposing swarm interprets it as a probe, automated defenses react, and within seconds both sides have taken irreversible actions that no political leader ordered. By the time a human sees the trend, the adversary’s intent seems to be clear, and escalation unavoidable.

The Real Race

The technological race is real, but it is not the only race. Free countries cannot and should not copy the loose model. But they can build systems that are simultaneously fast, open, and disciplined. That means, for instance:

  • treating drones as consumable ammunition, not exquisite platforms

  • supporting innovation and startups

  • shortening feedback loops to weeks, not decades

  • encoding clear, shared rules of engagement into software from day one

  • investing heavily in active defenses (lasers, jammers, and cheap interceptors

  • creating pre-agreed crisis mechanisms—digital hotlines, shared telemetry standards, forensic rapid-response teams

Ukraine has shown that a motivated society can out-innovate a much larger adversary even when heavily outnumbered. The $800 quadcopter has already rewritten the rules of war. The next question is whether we can rewrite our systems fast enough to win and keep the machines on a leash.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 03:30

Netanyahu Rejects Retirement In Exchange For Pardon: 'Let Voters Decide'

Zero Hedge -

Netanyahu Rejects Retirement In Exchange For Pardon: 'Let Voters Decide'

In Israel there's talk of the scenario where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can receive a full pardon in his criminal corruption cases if he agrees retires from political life, and on Sunday he addressed this controversial proposal during a press conference with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

When asked by a reporter if he will retire in order to obtain the pardon, Netanyahu shot back with a firm "No" - and then said, "They’re very concerned with my future. They want to make sure that - how shall I say this? - They’re concerned with my future."

Associated Press

"Well, so are the voters, and they'll decide, obviously, but we have big tasks to do, including with Germany in historic cooperation that will actually, actually will, in many ways, tower over our previous cooperation, which was quite amazing, but that’s not surprising, because, as you can see, Chancellor Merz is a towering figure," the prime minister added. 

President Trump has tried to intervene in the long-running legal saga, but lately Netanyahu has expressed that he needs more support from Washington.

As Israeli President Herzog considers a pardon - which he's granted the legal power to do - he has explained to Politico: "Everybody understands that any pre-emptive pardon has to be considered on the merits." And so he has vowed to "deal with it with utter seriousness."

"I respect President Trump’s friendship and his opinion … But Israel, naturally, is a sovereign country, and we fully respect the Israeli legal system and its requirements. The well-being of the Israeli people is my first, second and third priority," Herzog added, in a desire to distance himself from being viewed as under foreign influence.

"They're very concerned with my future," Bibi quipped before reporters in Germany...

Back in January, Netanyahu began interrogation sessions connected to a series of cases - all of which he's asserted his innocence in. For a review:

  • Case 1000 concerns allegations that Netanyahu and his wife accepted luxury gifts, such as cigars and champagne, from wealthy businessmen in exchange for political favors.
  • Case 2000 involves claims that Netanyahu negotiated with Arnon Mozes, publisher of Yedioth Ahronoth, to secure more favorable press coverage.
  • Case 4000 — viewed as the most serious — centers on accusations that Netanyahu provided regulatory and financial benefits to Shaul Elovitch, the former owner of the Walla news site and Bezeq telecommunications, in return for positive media treatment.

Netanyahu has also long faced accusations of war crimes and crimes against humanity - but pressure over this has mainly been on the international and European front, related to international criminal court probes.

President Trump has still firmly had his back, and has weighed in vocally in the case, asking Israel to dismiss all charges. At the same time there's only so much Washington can do, especially at a moment of deep internal turmoil in Israeli domestic politics.

PM Netanyahu formally submitted the pardon request to Herzog on November 30, sparking opposition backlash demanding that the president quickly shoot it down.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 02:45

What's The Likelihood Of A NATO-Russian Non-Aggression Pact?

Zero Hedge -

What's The Likelihood Of A NATO-Russian Non-Aggression Pact?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Putin recently proposed providing Europe, the majority of whose countries are part of NATO, with formal guarantees that it won’t attack.

In connection with this, he also assessed that those who fearmonger about Russia are serving the interests of the military-industrial complex and/or trying to bolster their domestic image, which exposed their ulterior motives.

In any case, his proposal could hypothetically lead to a NATO-Russian Non-Aggression Pact (NRNAP), but only if the political will exists on both sides.

One of Russia’s goals in the special operation is to reform the European security architecture, which the US is newly interested in too as suggested by some of the ideas in its draft Russian-Ukrainian peace deal framework.

All of this follows the Pentagon’s drawdown from Romania, which might precede a larger pullback from Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), albeit one that wouldn’t be total nor lead to abandoning Article 5. Such a move could still alleviate the American aspect of the NATO-Russian security dilemma.

The greater the scale of the US” “Pivot (back) to (East) Asia”, especially if it leads to the redeployment of some forces from Europe, the less likely that NATO’s European members (except the UK) are to saber-rattle against Russia since they’d doubt that the US will rush to their aid if they provoke a conflict. Their newfound sense of relative vulnerability, which is derived from their pathological intertwined hatred and fear of Russia, could then soften them up to a US-mediated NRNAP that they’d otherwise not agree to.

Just as “The US Will Struggle To Get Europe To Abide By Putin’s Demand To Stop Arming Ukraine”, so too might it struggle to get them to abide by whatever it proposes with respect to the new security architecture in Europe that it envisages jointly creating with Russia after the Ukrainian Conflict ends. Nevertheless, the US’ presumably reduced military presence in CEE by that point could facilitate agreements on the status of NATO forces in the Arctic-Baltic, CEE, and the Black Sea-South Caucasus.

This vast region uncoincidentally overlaps with the “cordon sanitaire” that interwar Polish leader Jozef Pilsudski wanted to create via the complementary “Intermarium” (a Polish-led security-centric regional integration bloc) and “Prometheism” (“Balkanizing” the USSR) policies but ultimately failed to achieve.

In today’s context, US support for the revival of Poland’s long-lost Great Power status could see Poland leading Russia’s containment there on the US’ behalf but within strictly agreed-upon confines.

Russian-NATO tensions can still be managed so long as the risk of war in CEE is reduced, which can be achieved by placing limits upon Poland’s militarization and hosting of foreign forces in exchange for Russia withdrawing some or all of its tactical nukes and Oreshniks from Belarus.fair Polish-Belarusian deal could thus form the core of any NRNAP. Successful mutual de-escalation on this central front is expected to lead to agreements on the peripheral Arctic-Baltic and Black Sea-South Caucasus ones.

The devil is in the details, and some NATO members might either obstruct talks on a US-mediated NRNAP or subvert it afterwards, so nobody should get their hopes up. That said, Russia and the US should set their sights on the end goal of a NRNAP, which could parallel talks on modernizing the New START. This is the most effective way to reform the European security architecture and keep the peace, but a lot will depend on Poland, which plays the most decisive role among all of the US’ NATO allies.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 02:00

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