FBI, CIA Apprehend Key Suspect In 2012 Benghazi Attack, Bondi Vows To Hunt Down Others

Many mysteries still surround the 2012 attack on the American consulate and nearby CIA outpost in Benghazi, Libya which led to the deaths of four Americans, including US Ambassador to Libya Christopher Stevens.

On Friday, the Trump administration heralded a major break in one of the worst terror attacks on a US diplomatic compound in history.  Attorney General Pam Bondi announced in a press conference the arrest of a culprit allegedly behind the attack. Zubayar al-Bakoush has already been extradited to the United States, landing at Andrews Air Forces base, and is facing murder, arson and terrorism related charges.

via Associated Press

"The FBI has arrested one of the key participants behind the Benghazi attack. Zubayar al-Bakoush landed at Andrews Air Force Base at 3 a.m. this morning. He is in our custody," Bondi said at a news conference.

She disclosed that the CIA and FBI coordinated to apprehend the suspected terrorist. No details of how he was nabbed have been offered, other than he was apprehended "overseas."

"Zubayr Al-Bakoush will now face American justice on American soil. We will prosecute this alleged terrorist to the fullest extent of the law," Bondi said

The US says it is committed to hunting down others behind the large-scale attack, known as America's other 9/11, given it occurred September 11, 2012. Three others - Sean Smith, Tyrone Woods, and Glen Doherty - were killed trying to defend against the assault. 

"Let me be very clear — there are more of them out there," US Attorney Jeanine Pirro said alongside Pondi and the FBI's Patel. "Time will not stop us from going after these predators, no matter how long it takes, in order to fulfill our obligation to those families who suffered horrific pain at the hands of these violent terrorists." 

The truth about Libya is that some of the Islamist 'rebels' the US funded to overthrow Gaddafi later bit the hand that fed them. These for a time were "America's jihadists"...

Seems Dbaiba did what he do best (Again),Unlike almarimi ,it’s worth considering how the war‑hardened groups that left Benghazi will view Dbaiba going forward.
Image for Zubayr Al-Bakoush in US custody post his "disappearance" in Tripoli late Nov 2025.#Libya https://t.co/W9r7y1UIy0 pic.twitter.com/7vI12FJytK

— Mohamed Tailamun|محمد طيلمون (@MTailamun) February 6, 2026

This is actually the second arrest connected o the Benghazi attack, after back in 2020 Libyan national Mustafa al-Imam was sentenced to more than 19 years in prison for his crimes.

National security officials have long identified that Al-Qaeda-aligned Salafi Jihadist militia group Ansar al-Sharia was behind it.

In the wake of the disaster, several Congressional investigations and hearings saw Republicans clash with then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton ahead of her 2016 presidential run as a Democrat.

However, the bipartisan political outrage was always somewhat of a limited hangout, concealing some of the deeper disturbing aspects to the Benghazi attack. For example, the US government and CIA at the time of the attack were engaged in a covert gun-running operation out of Libya, to support anti-Assad jihadists in Syria, declassified intelligence records show.

* * *

Friday's full announcement...

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/06/2026 - 11:40

Europe In Decline

By Teeuwe Mevissen of Rabobank

Not even a month ago, today’s author of the Global Daily walked through the main hall of the Musée d’Orsay, admiring its remarkable collection. Among the many sculptures, one large painting by Thomas Couture inevitably draws the eye: Romans in Their Decadence.

At first glance, it appears to depict Roman citizens engaged in an orgy, but a closer look reveals far more. Beyond the opulence on display, one sees a figure desecrating a statue resembling a former emperor or deity. Only three figures – the contemplative man on the far left and two men observing with evident disdain on the right – seem detached from the excess around them.

When the painting debuted at the Paris Salon, the exhibition catalogue included a quote from Juvenal:“Nunc patimur longae pacis mala; savior armis luxuria incubuit, victumque ulciscitur orbem.” – “Now do we suffer the evils of prolonged peace; luxury, more ruthless than the sword, broods over us and avenges a conquered world.”

A portrait of Rome in decline. And today, some argue, a portrait of Europe.

Political and economic commentators increasingly draw parallels between today’s Europe and the late Roman Empire. Those who subscribe to the decline narrative point to data showing that Europe’s share of global GDP has fallen from 25% in 1990 to roughly 14% today. Others highlight the innovation gap, demographic headwinds, and the erosion of industrial competitiveness. While these trends worry many, a Wall Street Journal report yesterday added a more urgent dimension: a recent wargame underscored Europe’s vulnerability to a potential Russian attack.

The Dutch Defence Minister noted that “Russia will be able to move large amounts of troops within one year” and that Moscow is already expanding its assets along NATO borders. This alone underscores the perceived urgency amongst European leaders to accelerate efforts to rebuild and modernize its military capabilities – and suggests that Europe’s geopolitical weight has indeed diminished.

Whether Europe is truly in decline remains subject to debate, but equity markets certainly are. And, in fact, particularly US markets this time – with the S&P500 now down 0.7% year-to-date but the European Stoxx 600 index still up 2.8%. Investor sentiment has deteriorated sharply. While the selloff had moderated at the time of writing, US tech stocks experienced steep declines, with Amazon losing 11% in extended trading. Bitcoin also continued its slide, touching lows not seen since October 2024 and barely holding above $60,000. Oil prices remain somewhat elevated, with traders watching closely to see whether the US will take action against Iran in the coming days.

In another Wall Street Journal article, China’s leadership appears to have concluded that the deterioration in U- China trade relations is irreversible and likely to lead to a messy decoupling. This raises important questions about how such a shift might affect China’s broader trade surplus. Here, we argue that China is likely to maintain significant trade surpluses for the foreseeable future. One important reason is that 2025 has demonstrated that it is not so easy to decouple from China; another is that countries like Canada and the UK reconsider their trade relationship with China because of ongoing trade tension with the US.

Turning to central banks: the ECB left rates unchanged yesterday, keeping the deposit rate at 2% for the fifth consecutive meeting. No forward guidance was provided, and the Governing Council judged that risks remain broadly balanced. The ECB struck a generally constructive tone, citing low unemployment, strong private sector balance sheets, and ongoing investment in defence and infrastructure.
However, it also warned of persistent geopolitical risks and uncertainties around global trade policy. Until the data clearly point in a particular direction, the ECB is likely to remain on hold. As expected, questions arose about the recent EUR/USD rally, which briefly pushed the pair to 1.2044 eight days ago , yet President Lagarde remained calm despite acknowledging that a stronger euro could contribute to lower inflation. A full summary of the meeting can be found here.

At the Bank of England, the meeting was more eventful. Rates were held at 3.75%, but the split vote – 5 in favour of holding, 4 pushing for a cut – was unexpectedly narrow, with Governor Bailey casting the deciding vote. This increases the likelihood of a March cut, a view we have held for some time. New guidance that “judgements around further policy easing will become a closer call” triggered a repricing in markets, with the probability of a March cut rising from 20% before the announcement to around 60% at the time of writing. Full coverage of the meeting is available here.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/06/2026 - 11:20

Top Russian Military Intelligence Official Shot & Wounded In Moscow Apartment

A top Russian military intelligence general has been shot in a Moscow apartment building on Friday, but has reportedly survived the attack and was transported to a local hospital. But his wounds are reportedly severe.

The attack by an unknown gunman has all the hallmarks of an assassination attempt in connection to the Ukraine war, especially given the victim is a high level Russian intelligence official. Vladimir Alekseyev is the deputy head of Moscow's GRU military intelligence, and has long been sanctioned in the West for his alleged role in cyberattacks and allegations that he was behind the alleged 2018 Novichok nerve agent attack in Britain.

via Associated Press

Lt. Gen. Alekseyev was shot several times by an "unidentified individual" before that person fled the scene. The highly decorated general, who has also heavily involved in Russia's Syria campaign of the last decade, has been first deputy head of Russia’s military intelligence since 2011.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov soon after accused Ukraine of being behind the "terrorist act" and alleged it is trying "disrupt the negotiation process" toward forging peace. According to further details:

According to the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, the attack took place on the 24th floor of a building on Volokolamskoye Highway.

Petrenko said that the unknown assailant shot the general several times and then fled the scene. As a result of the shooting, Alekseyev was wounded and hospitalized.

Based on the scant information presented by Russia's Investigative Committee, it seems the assassin was easily able to gain access to the building, and that the top general's apartment was broken into.

Ukraine has remained silent on the shooting of Gen. Alekseyev - despite Kiev having in the past claimed responsibility for some other attacks. For example, to review another couple of recent assassinations of top generals:

• In December, Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov, head of the Operational Training Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces’ General Staff, was killed when a car bomb detonated.
• In April, another senior officer, Lt. Gen. Yaroslav Moskalik—deputy head of the General Staff’s main operational department—was assassinated by an explosive device planted in his vehicle outside his apartment building just beyond Moscow.

Meanwhile an Azov commander is vowing that "retribution will find everyone"...

Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev, First Deputy Chief of the GRU of the Russian General Staff, who was shot in Moscow this morning, was the senior Russian representative at the negotiations in Mariupol in May 2022, during the withdrawal of the Mariupol garrison from Azovstal.… pic.twitter.com/WjgcG73INh

— Denys Prokopenko (@D_Redis) February 6, 2026

These covert hits has unnerved Russia's command ranks, given they take place deep inside Russia, and even in high-secured neighborhoods which residents might otherwise think are same or immune from the events of the Ukraine war.

As for Alekseyev, it's possible he could succumb to the gunshot wounds, as Russian media has indicated he remains in critical condition in an intensive care wing.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/06/2026 - 11:00

Why Is The Deep State Targeting DNI Tulsi Gabbard With Such Ferocity?

Authored by Sundance via The Conservative Treehouse,

Each day more and more people are starting to realize/notice there are elements of the United States intelligence apparatus that are targeting Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard.  The need for control is a reaction to fear, and Tulsi Gabbard has the DC Intelligence Community very worried.

What you will read below is something that was written back in 2024 about the potential for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), if President Trump were to win the election. Subsequently, he did win; and while we are not saying this is the exact ODNI script that is being followed, we are certainly not disputing that either.

Read the roadmap below –Written in 2024– compare it to current events and decide for yourself if this is something that rings a bell and may explain the IC apoplexy.

The ODNI was created as an outcome of the 9-11 Commission recommendations.  In the era shortly after 9/11, the DC national security apparatus was constructed to preserve continuity of government and simultaneously view all Americans as potential threats.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) were created specifically for this purpose.

Washington DC created the modern national security apparatus immediately and hurriedly after 9/11/01.  DHS came along in 2002, and within the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 the ODNI was formed. 

When Barack Obama and Eric Holder arrived a few years later, those newly formed institutions were viewed as opportunities to create a very specific national security apparatus that would focus almost exclusively against their political opposition.

Here is the weird part.  The ODNI was formed in 2004, with the intent for the office to be the pivot point of a national security radar. The DNI was intended to provide information to domestic agencies about foreign terror networks that would prevent something like 9-11 from happening again.  However, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence has never, not for one day, operated on this intent. This is why they are such a critical position from my perspective.

The office was new, not established yet as a functioning silo, when Barack Obama and Eric Holder arrived in 2009. They quickly dispatched an idiot, James Clapper, into the operation so they could weaponize around the offices’ fulcrum point.

Prior to the DNI office existing, the CIA radar would sweep externally and then report to the Office of the President. The DNI was intended to take external radar sweep (CIA) and make it a full 360° circle, adding a sweep inside the USA that would be handled by the Dept of Homeland Security.

The DHS sweep and the CIA sweep would then be combined into a central collection hub called the ODNI. Everyone with responsibility for “national security” could access the ODNI material. Essentially and presumably, post 9-11 nothing like jihadists practicing to fly airplanes would be missed again; at least that was the intent.

The weird part is that because the DNI was immediately weaponized, the office has never functioned to the purpose of its intent.

No one truly knows what the office possibilities consist of because no one has ever seen anyone try to functionally control the hub. If you think I’m joking about the intent of Obama and John Brennan using the DNI watch this video. This is before Brennan became CIA Director, this is when Brennan was helping Barack Obama put the pillars into place.

For the intents of this outline the takeaway is how the DNI office has never been used for good.  In a strategic way, that can be used to our advantage if you are talking about leveraging silos against each other.

Example:  The DNI can assemble material from any silo. Meaning the DNI can reach into any IC silo and extract anything they want. Under the original authorities given to the DNI, this authority exists. So, let’s spread the wings on this office and do exactly what it is permitted to do, only this time extract for the purpose of showing the President what is happening in every silo.

In essence, the DNI *CAN BE* deployed like a super strong cross-silo inspector general’s office. Force the other IC silos to comply with the demands of the DNI. This has never been done. But the DNI has this unique power.

The DNI can make the FBI, DOJ, DOJ-NSD, DoD, DoS and CIA provide anything and everything they demand.  Instead of the other silos using blocks and threats against the office of the President, use the authority of the DNI to get them without confrontation.   Then use the DNI to declassify the documents (if requested by potus), instead of the originating silo.

Can you see how the DNI office can be repurposed to be a seriously strong weapon in the toolbox of the President, against the schemes of those inside the various IC silos.

The DNI becomes much more important than the CIA Director, NSA Director, FBI Director, Attorney General, etc, because the DNI can just show up and say, “give me this.”  That’s the functional purpose of the DNI office that has never been exerted; let’s flippin’ use it.

Let’s use the office of the DNI as the central information hub that takes information from inside the corrupt silos, then provides that information to the President who puts sunlight upon it.  Each corrupt silo penetrated with disinfectant.  This could begin a process to pull down the shadow operations and let the American public see what has been happening inside our IC apparatus.

To accomplish this approach the National Security Advisor to the President (NSA) [currently Marco Rubio], would be the person who tells the DNI what they are looking for. How does the NSA know what to look for?  Because the National Security Advisor is the head of the National Security Council (NSC).

Let the NSC monitor the silos with specific intent, perhaps with assistance from open-source research, then provide Trump’s NatSec Advisor with details on what appears to be happening and where.   With the approval of the President, the NSA [Rubio], then turns to the DNI [Gabbard] and says, “POTUS wants this, go get this.”

Raw, unfiltered, unredacted information.   The silo administrators end up in a fight with the ODNI, not the office of President Trump.  President Trump then uses the power of his office to support the demands of the DNI.

Under this approach the DNI has a lot more power; yet funnily, it’s power they already have – yet have never utilized.

[END of Prior Outline]

Does any of that track with what we are currently experiencing?

With DNI Tulsi Gabbard putting strategic pressure from the inside, and We The People putting accountability pressure from the outside, this Deep State intelligence nut just might begin to crack.

In fact, I might even argue that cracking is exactly what we are starting to see.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/06/2026 - 10:40

Democrats Abandon Tariff-Flation Narrative Sending UMich Sentiment To 6-Month Highs

After January's big bounce from record lows (as Democrats began to see that the world is not the worst its ever been... and inflation is not going to explode), UMich sentiment was expected to re-dip again in February led by a drop in Current Conditions.

But February's preliminary data showed a continued rebound in sentiment (which is quite shocking given that it comes after the Davos/Greenland debacle) with a surge in Current Conditions dominating a small dip in Expectations to bring the headline sentiment to its highest since August 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

"Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock portfolios," said Director of Surveys, Joanne Hsu's, "while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for consumers without stock holdings."

On net, modest increases in current personal finances and buying conditions for durables were offset by a small decline in long-run business conditions.

Inflation expectations for the next 12 months plummeted to 13-month lows (while medium term expectations rose modestly)...

Source: Bloomberg

...as Democrats and Independents come to their senses...

Source: Bloomberg

It appears mainstream media propaganda about Trump's tariffs worked on some... (is this where the term 'useful idiots' comes from?)

But, according to Democrats' prior panic, inflation is about to go vertical right about now...

...we wait with bated breadth.

Of course, UMich's reliability has been in question for a while now...

Finally, if you had any doubt that this survey was utterly biased, here is Hsu's concluding comment:

"While sentiment is currently the highest since August 2025, recent monthly increases have been small - well under the margin of error - and the overall level of sentiment remains very low from a historical perspective."

Translated: don't believe this drop in inflation fears (to 13 month lows) and rise in sentiment (to 6 month highs)... Trump's still OrangeManBad, remember!!

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/06/2026 - 10:10

Ukraine Claims Putin Is Transferring Occupied Farmland Into State Hands

Via Remix News,

Russia has begun transferring privately owned farmland in the occupied Luhansk region to Russian state hands, the Ukrainian National Resistance Center claims, according to an article by UNN, cited by Portfolio.

According to Ukrainians, the Russian authorities are now, within the framework of a complicated legal process, first officially classifying the Luhansk farmland as “abandoned” and then transferring it to the Russian state.

Russian occupiers are simply stealing the property of Ukrainian people who have fled the war, according to Ukraine.

“They are working to permanently dispossess people fleeing war, and the forced displacement is essentially a form of land grabbing disguised as legal," the report said.

Ukraine has long been one of Europe’s strongest agricultural economies, but much of the fighting is taking place on land where the country’s agricultural activities took place.

Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast make up Donbas, a territory largely occupied now by Russia and which U.S. President Trump has asked Ukraine to give up.

Luhansk Oblast is considered particularly good farmland, but the region underwent significant industrialization during Soviet times, and since 2014, a lot of bombs, mines, ammunition and contamination have been deposited in the soil.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/06/2026 - 09:50

As passed by the House of Representatives on January 21, 2026

Under Armour Lifts Outlook As Kevin Plank Says "Transformation Accelerating"

We asked a perfectly reasonable question last month: Why was Fairfax Financial, under Prem Watsa (often called the "Canadian Warren Buffett"), adding significant long exposure in Under Armour equity?

Weeks later, we might know why...

Under Armour reported third-quarter results that surprised Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg, posting a profit and topping revenue estimates.  

Third Quarter Results (courtsey of Bloomberg):

Adjusted EPS 9.0c vs. 8.0c y/y, estimate loss/shr 1.1c

Loss per share $1.01, estimate loss/shr 9c

Net revenue $1.33 billion, -5.2% y/y, estimate $1.31 billion

• Apparel revenue $934.0 million, -3.3% y/y, estimate $924 million

• Licensing revenue $27.2 million, +14% y/y, estimate $23.2 million

• Footwear revenue $265.1 million, -12% y/y, estimate $259.4 million

• North America revenue $756.7 million, -10% y/y, estimate $750.7 million

• Asia Pacific revenue $190.9 million, -5.1% y/y, estimate $183.6 million

• EMEA revenue $315.8 million, +6% y/y, estimate $321 million

• Latin America revenue $70.6 million, +20% y/y, estimate $60.3 million

Adjusted operating income $26.4 million, -56% y/y, estimate $5.76 million

Inventory $1.07 billion, -2.4% y/y, estimate $1.18 billion

Total location count 450, +0.4% y/y, estimate 450.33

Operating loss $149.8 million vs. profit $13.5 million y/y, estimated loss $46.7 million

Management also raised its outlook, reinforcing a view we've covered via UBS: an early-stage turnaround may be taking hold after years of the stock being beaten down.

Full Year Forecast (courtsey of Bloomberg)

• Sees adjusted EPS 10c to 11c, saw 3.0c to 5.0c, estimate 4.9c (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Sees loss per share $1.24 to $1.25, saw loss/shr 15c to loss/shr 17c

• Sees revenue -4%, saw -4% to -5%

• Sees gross margin about -190 bps

• Sees adjusted operating income $110 million, saw $95 million to $110 million, estimate $97.8 million

• Sees operating loss $154 million, saw loss $56 million to loss $71 million

UA President and CEO Kevin Plank commented on the earnings:

Our third-quarter adjusted operating results exceeded expectations, and despite a few unfortunate, non-recurring impacts, we're encouraged by the progress we're making in the business to reignite brand momentum.

In North America, we believe the December quarter marked the most challenging phase we'ver business reset, and we expect greater stability ahead as we build on this progress globally.

Our transformation is accelerating as we sharpen our focus and strengthen execution. Our strategy is gaining traction through better products, bolder storytelling, and a more disciplined market presence, positioning Under Armour to operate with greater intention and confidence going forward.

After years of reporting UA's brand losing market share. We began to change our view on UA after UBS analyst Jay Sole, in September, forecasted a major inflection point for the Baltimore-based apparel company.

At the time, Sole argued that sentiment would turn positive in FY27, setting the stage for stock outperformance.

• "We Think Sentiment Will Turn Positive": UBS Sees Inflection Point In Under Armour Shares

Then last month, what really piqued our interest was Fairfax Financial Holdings taking a monster 22% stake in UA.

• Fairfax Financial Takes 22% Stake In Under Armour As UBS Sees "Turnaround Stock" 

We even asked the question:

• Why Is "Canadian Warren Buffett" Panic-Buying Under Armour Stock

... and now we know why.

Shares moved up 3.5% in premarket trading after the earnings report. On the year, shares are up 26%, after being beaten down to 2010 levels since peaking in 2015.

We also note that Bloomberg data show UA's float is 33% short. A possible squeeze candidate for sure.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/06/2026 - 09:35

Futures Rebound To Session High As Software, Gold And Bitcoin All Jump

US equity futures are poised to open higher with Software companies finally bouncing (as previewed here), even though Amazon continues to be deep in the red after its eye-watering capex outlook. US stocks will cap a bruising week in which a rush to unwind crowded trades - from AI shares to precious metals and crypto - triggered margin calls and amplified the market’s slide. With the S&P 500 on track for its worst week this year, S&P futures are 0.6% higher at 8:15a.m. ET while contracts on the Nasdaq 100, which just suffered its ugliest three days since Trump’s trade war sent markets into a tailspin in April, were up 0.8% after erasing an earlier decline while precious metals and cryptocurrencies climb after falling sharply on Thursday. In premarket trading, Mag 7 are mostly higher except for AMZN which is down -7% post-earnings on a staggering capex guidance ($200BN, vs $146BN est); NVDA +2.7%, MSFT +1.6%. Yields are 1-3bp higher led by the front-end overnight while the USD is at session lows. Commodities are mixed: base metals are lagging, while gold and silver added 2.0% and 4.4%, respectively; oil added 0.4% overnight. Oil trades near session lows as US-Iran nuclear talks take place. Bitcoin has bounced more than 10% from its session lows just above $60K as dip buying makes a tentative comeback. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher with one exception: Amazon is down 7% after the company announced plans to spend $200 billion this year on data centers, chips and other equipment, worrying investors that its colossal bet on artificial intelligence may not pay off in the long run. AI infrastructure stocks rally after Amazon’s massive capex forecast. Gainers include AMD (AMD) +2%. Other Magnificent Seven stocks: Tesla +0.6%, Alphabet -1%, Microsoft +1.3%, Apple -0.4%, Meta Platforms +0.08%

• Cryptocurrency-linked stocks rally as Bitcoin rebounded after a selloff that briefly dragged the token to a more than 50% retreat from its October peak.
• Bill Holdings (BILL) rises 12% after the payments-automation company raised its full-year forecast.
• Bloom Energy (BE) rises 13% after the manufacturer of solid-oxide fuel cells gave a forecast for 2026 revenue that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) falls 8% after FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said his agency will take “swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs, claiming they are similar to FDA-approved products.”
• Impinj (PI) falls 27% after the semiconductor device company gave an outlook that is much weaker than expected, given an inventory overbuild. The results prompted a downgrade
• Molina (MOH) tumbles 25% after the health insurer forecast 2026 profit that was less than half of Wall Street’s expectations.
• Reddit (RDDT) climbs 8% after the social-media company’s fourth-quarter results beat expectations across key metrics. It also gave an outlook that is seen as strong.
• Roblox (RBLX) jumps 8% after the video-game company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations on key metrics. It also gave an outlook that is seen as positive.
• Stellantis (STLA) plunges 27% after the carmaker said a business reset resulted in charges of around €22.2 billion for the second half of 2025. Akros says the charges were about double what they expected.

Investors have been spooked by developments on two fronts: the rollout of models from AI startup Anthropic that threaten to render large swaths of software services redundant, alongside the eye-watering spending plans of tech companies. Four of the biggest tech firms plan to invest around $650 billion this year in data centers and the equipment required to run them.

Amazon, almost 8% lower in pre-market trading, is the latest Mag7 member to spook investors about ballooning AI spending, projecting $200 billion for capex this year, far more than the $146 billion Wall Street had penciled in.  Taken together with plans from Meta, Google and Microsoft, capital spending by the Big Four AI “hyperscalers” is set to hit about $650 billion this year — up from $356 billion in 2025 and under $100 billion in 2020. On current trajectories, that suggests the quartet’s capex could top $1 trillion in 2027, a scale of investment that’s giving investors pause in what has long been a disinflationary tech industry.

Some investors still appear willing to open their wallets. Oracle’s record-setting bond deal on Monday is an encouraging signal for other big tech firms seeking to raise hundreds of billions of dollars for data-center infrastructure, according to Goldman Sachs’ syndicate desk. Yet if the mounting cost of building AI is rattling markets, so too is the disruption the technology threatens to unleash on other industries. Anthropic is rolling out a new model, Claude Opus 4.6, tailored for financial research - just days after its move into legal services jolted legacy software providers. Meanwhile, Blackstone-backed Liftoff Mobile postponed its IPO this week as a selloff in tech shares compounded investor concerns about AI’s impact.

Still, the week’s retreat is allowing traders to separate stocks facing genuine risk or overvaluation from those caught up in the broader risk-off rout, as the AI rally of the past three years continues to broaden beyond the largest names.

“This is an opportunity for us as active investors to take the baby that has been thrown out with the bath water, because there’s still names out there that we believe will come out very well,” said Fabiana Fedeli, chief investment officer for equities, multi-asset and sustainability at M&G Investments.

For Rory Sandilands, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Aegon Ltd., uncertainty over the disruptive nature of AI may linger as it remains too early to tell how effective the new tools are, or how quickly other software may become obsolete.

“What we’re seeing in the marketplace is fear, because nobody understands really who the winners and losers will be,” Sandilands said. “There’s not enough cushion in credit spreads in aggregate to really to help soften that blow.”

Bitcoin, another canary in the coal mine for risk appetite, touched a new 15-month low of $60,033 on Friday morning, before rallying more than 10%. The original cryptocurrency suffered its biggest daily drop since 2022 on Thursday.  Bitcoin’s plunge is intensifying the crisis rocking the digital-asset complex. Few companies are more exposed than Strategy, which confirmed in earnings announcement on Thursday a net loss of $12.4 billion for the fourth quarter, driven by the mark-to-market decline in its vast holdings. Retail investors who piled into the Trump administration’s promised crypto paradise via Wall Street-approved funds are also learning an expensive lesson in market gravity. Crypto funds had their biggest outflows since November in the week ended Feb. 4, Bank of America says, citing EPFR Global data. Money market funds attracted the most inflows, along with stocks. That said, today crypto may finally be due for a rebound: tracking the Software basket, bitcoin is more than 10% above the overnight lows of $60K, trading near session highs of $67K.

Silver has managed a modest rally from Thursday’s 17% leg lower, but remains nearly 39% down from its peak barely a week ago.

Also recall: it may be the first Friday of the month, but there are no non-farms payrolls. Earlier this week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the January jobs report would be delayed to next Wednesday because of the partial government shutdown. 

Turning to earnings, companies representing nearly 70% of the S&P 500’s market value have now reported in this earnings season. Of the 289 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far, more than 78% have beaten analysts’ forecasts, while 17% have missed. Next week, the calendar is much lighter, with another 8% of the S&P’s market cap reporting. Philip Morris International and Biogen are among those companies expected to report results before the market opens on Friday. PMI investors will be looking for continued strength in its smoke-free portfolio, which includes heated tobacco products and nicotine pouches, to support high-single digit sales growth in the fourth-quarter. For Biogen, all eyes will be on the performance of Leqembi, the drugmaker’s treatment for early Alzheimer’s disease.

European stocks also advance, with construction, utility and bank shares leading gains. Autos underperform as Stellantis shares tumble. Consumer products and chemicals also lag, while construction shares outperform, as French group Vinci announced strong 2025 earnings.  Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• Bayer rises as much as 3.2% after the German company said its experimental drug — called asundexian — cut the risk of secondary strokes by 26% in a late-stage trial.
• Kongsberg shares soar as much as 17% after the Norwegian defense firm posted results that Morgan Stanley says delivered a strong end to the year, with all divisions recording double-digit growth in the fourth quarter.
• Vontobel shares rise as much as 6.1% after the investment management firm reported a significant trading-driven earnings beat, according to analysts at Citi.
• Renk Group shares rise as much as 10% after BNP Paribas raises its recommendation on the German defense company to outperform from neutral, citing a reassuring message from the CEO over the upcoming earnings report and the outlook for 2026.
• Stellantis shares fall as much as 24%, the steepest drop on record, after the carmaker said a business reset resulted in charges of around €22.2 billion for the second half of 2025. Akros says the charges were about double what they expected.
• SocGen shares dropped as much as 4.1% following a strong rally after the French lender reported what an RBC analyst says are mixed results as Bloomberg Intelligence notes trading revenue missed estimated and fell short of peers.
• Kering shares fall as much as 5.5% after Morgan Stanley trimmed its price target on the French luxury group ahead of next week’s earnings, saying recent channel checks point to a more difficult start to 2026 than anticipated.
• Coloplast shares drop as much as 9.6% after the Danish medical products-maker reported weaker-than-expected sales and earnings for the first quarter, hurt by its Kerecis skin substitutes business.
• Anglo American shares fall as much as 3.1% after BofA analysts cut the miner’s rating to neutral from buy, citing risks to completing its Teck Resources acquisition and uncertainty over the value of non-core businesses.
• European software and IT services stocks are coming under renewed pressure, tracking declines in Asian and US peers, after Anthropic unveiled a new version of its most powerful artificial intelligence model designed to carry out financial research.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks pared their initial declines on Friday but still headed for a weekly slide, dragged by concerns over artificial intelligence shares and panic selling in precious metals. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.3% before trading little changed in Friday’s session, with South Korea and Taiwan’s tech-sensitive markets overcame declines. Stocks in Hong Kong dropped and mainland China extended its retreat, while Japan’s market rebounded after opening at a loss. On the week, the regional gauge slid as much as 2.5%, set to snap its streak of advances that started in mid-December. Thailand will also be heading to the polls for a general election, with spending plans and measures to support growth among investors’ top priorities. Shares in India were steady after the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, signaling an end to its easing cycle.

“Asian markets have fallen this week as volatility in precious metals prompted investors to reassess stretched valuations more broadly,” said Fabien Yip, market analyst at IG International. A spillover from the US tech selloff has added more pressure, although the region’s decline has been more moderate than global peers, she added.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.2% while the Norwegian krone and Australian dollar are the best performing G-10 currency, rising 0.8% each against the greenback. USD/JPY is little changed ahead of the Japanese election on Sunday.

In rates, treasuries edge lower, pushing US 10-year yields up 2 bp to 4.20%. Gilts lead a rally in European government bonds, with UK 10-year yields falling 3 bps to 4.53%. A combination of the Trump administration’s focus on affordability and a weakening employment picture could open the door to further rate cuts, said Mohit Kumar, chief strategist for Europe at Jefferies.

“Our view remains that we could get a scenario where growth is robust and yet employment is weakening due to the impact of AI,” Kumar wrote. “A Warsh-led Fed could end up being more dovish than what the market currently expects.”

Money market funds attracted the most inflows in the week ended Feb. 4 along with stocks, Bank of America Corp. said, citing EPFR Global data. Crypto funds had their biggest outflows since November, while gold funds saw their first weekly outflow since November.

In commodities, WTI crude futures are steady near $63.30 a barrel as traders eyed the outcome of talks between Iran and the US.  Spot silver rises over 5% while Bitcoin rallies back above $66,000 after dropping more than 50% from its October peak.

Looking at today's calendar, the University of Michigan’s provisional reading of consumer sentiment in February is due at 10 a.m. ET however.  

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.4%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.5%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.8%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX +0.1%
• CAC 40 -0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.19%
• VIX -1.3 points at 20.51
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1193.65
• euro +0.1% at $1.1794
• WTI crude +0.7% at $63.73/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Oil dropped US-Iran talks got underway in Oman, with Tehran indicating that a quick deal is unlikely. BBG
• The U.S. Virtual Embassy in Iran issued a security alert early Friday urging American citizens to “leave Iran now.” The notice came as American and Iranian officials were scheduled for a new round of negotiations in Oman on Friday. CNBC
• Bitcoin is bouncing this morning (currently +525bps), rising after a selloff that briefly dragged the token to more than 50% below its October peak. BBG
• US consumer sentiment probably edged lower at the start of February on concerns about a cooling labor market and elevated prices. BBG
• BOJ board member Kazuyuki Masu highlighted the need for a higher benchmark interest rate. BBG
• Indonesia’s assets slid after Moody’s cut the country’s credit outlook to negative. The cost of insuring sovereign debt rose to around 80 bps, the biggest increase among Asian sovereigns. BBG
• Intel and AMD have notified Chinese customers of supply shortages for server central processing units (CPUs), with Intel warning of delivery lead times of up to six months. The supply constraints have driven up prices for Intel's server products in China by more than 10% generally, although pricing varies by customer contract. RTRS
• Big Tech stocks sold off heavily after the companies unveiled plans to spend $660bn this year on AI, as investors fret that the “breathtaking” capital expenditures are outpacing the eranigns potential of the new technology. Amazon, Google and Microsoft are set to lose a combined $900bn in mkt value since filing their quarterly earnings over the past week. FT
• Sweden’s core inflation slowed more rapidly than expected last month, suggesting a March rate cut may be in play. The CPIF rate excluding energy fell to 1.7% from 2.3% in December. BBG
• South Korean official said US is taking necessary steps regarding the issue of South Korea being on sensitive country lists: Yonhap.

Trade/Tariffs

• Japan and US 1st round of investment to include gas power, ports and artificial diamond, totalling JPY 6-7tln, Nikkei reported.
• Chinese Commerce Ministry said they will lead policy measures to promote travel service exports and boost inbound consumption.
• French President Macron to visit Japan at the end of March, via Nikkei.
• South Africa Trade Minister said they signed a framework economic partnership with China, while the agreement will be followed by an early harvest agreement by end of March 2026, which will then see China provide duty-free access to South African exports.
• South Korea Foreign Minister said South Korea is not intentionally delaying US investment.
• Venezuela and Qatar review bilateral agenda to strengthen cooperation.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed after the global market rout rolled over into the region following the continued tech woes stateside and weak US labour market data. Nonetheless, most of the regional benchmark indices are well off their worst levels, as the early sell-off gradually stabilised. ASX 200 was among the underperformers with the index dragged lower by heavy tech losses, and with sentiment also not helped by M&A-related disappointment after the proposed Rio Tinto-Glencore merger fell through, while there were comments from RBA Governor Bullock, who noted the RBA board is not happy with inflation and the prospects of getting it down. Nikkei 225 initially declined amid the broad risk-off mood and disappointing Household Spending data, but then recovered as sentiment improved and with participants awaiting the snap election on Sunday, where the ruling bloc is widely anticipated to achieve a landslide victory. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid a lack of fresh pertinent catalysts and with the mainland clawing back all of its early losses following another two-pronged liquidity operation by the PBoC utilising both 7-day and 14-day reverse repos.

Top Asian News

• Indonesian President said they signed a security treaty with Australia.
• Former Bank of China (3988 HK) Vice President was expelled from the China Communist Party for serious violations of discipline and law.
• China's Ministry of Agriculture issues implementation plan to advance rural revitalisation and agricultural modernisation.
• Japan ruling parties expected to win over 300 seats out of the 465 seats in the lower house election, according to Nikkei.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) broadly opened on the backfoot but have gradually moved higher as the morning progressed. European sectors opened with a clear negative bias but are now mixed. Construction leads, boosted by upside in Vinci (+6.5%). To the downside, Autos has been hit by significant pressure in Stellantis (-22.3%). The Co. noted it is to take a EUR 22bln charge as it resets its business and scales back on its recent EV push.

Top European News

• Russian Ambassador said the UK and France should participate if there is a serious talk multilateral nuclear disarmament.
• UK and China working group will work towards an MOU between the PBoC and BoE.
• ECB's Escriva said there is always room for changes in monetary policy; inflation is at target and expectations are anchored.

FX

• DXY marginally pulled back since the start of the APAC session after gaining against its peers yesterday amid haven appeal and as the buck continued to nurse some of its YTD weakness, with momentum following the Warsh Fed Chair nomination remaining intact yesterday, despite the slew of weaker-than-expected labour market metrics. The European morning has seen trade within tight parameters as traders look ahead to the University of Michigan prelim survey and comments from Fed's Jefferson. DXY resides in a 97.75-97.97 range after finding support near 98.00 once again after printing a 97.60-97.98 parameter yesterday.
• EUR/USD ekes mild gains and retested the 1.1800 level, albeit with price action contained following the uneventful ECB policy announcement yesterday, with several ECB speakers offering commentary today, albeit with no obvious impact on EUR assets. Further, the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters suggested headline and core HICP inflation expectations unchanged across all horizons, while Real GDP growth expectations unchanged except for a slight upward revision for 2026. EUR/USD currently trades within a 1.1765-1.1801, versus Thursday's 1.1775-1.1822 range.
• GBP/USD regained some composure after the prior day's underperformance, which was caused by the BoE's dovish vote split and UK political woes and calls grow for UK PM Starmer to resign. GBP/USD trades between 1.3508-1.3581 compared to yesterday's wide 1.3518-1.3654 parameter.
• USD/JPY declined overnight but trimmed losses to trade flat at the time of writing, but with price action choppy ahead of the election on Sunday and following disappointing Household Spending data from Japan, while BoJ's Masu reiterated that the central bank will raise rates if the economy and prices are in line with the BoJ's outlook.
• Antipodeans outperform across the G10 space, rebounding from a weekly trough as the early sell-off in metals and stocks gradually stabilised and then reversed.

Fixed Income

• USTs are firmer by a handful of ticks, remaining at the elevated levels seen in the prior session. As a reminder, the strength seen on Thursday was attributed to: a) risk-off sentiment, b) poor US jobs data, c) a dovish hold at the BoE. Newsflow is lacking this morning, aside from the recommencement of US-Iran talks in Oman – the key risk is that talks break down, leading to a potential US strike on Iran. Geopols aside, focus will be on the US data slate, which includes the UoM survey. Currently within a 112-06+ to 112-16+ range.
• Bunds are also firmer this morning, following peers; currently firmer by around 15 ticks and trading within a 128.31-128.58 range. Earlier, German Exports rose more than expected with Imports also topping expectations – promising data from the region, though more focus was on the Industrial Production. The metric fell sharply in December, which highlights the uncertain nature of Germany’s recovery. Following this data, Bunds rose from 128.37 to a high of 128.46, before scaling back to just under the 128.40 mark where the benchmark currently resides. Several ECB speakers have appeared throughout the day, Kazaks highlighted risks of the stronger EUR, whilst Rehn suggested that there's a real risk of lower-than-expected inflation.
• Australia sold AUD 800mln 1.00% December 2030 bonds, b/c 4.14, avg. yield 4.3641%.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent briefly dipped below USD 63/bbl and USD 67/bbl, respectively at the start of the Asia-Pac session, before steadily bidding higher as European trade gets underway. The key event traders will be looking out for today is any reporting following the US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman. As of writing, the meeting has gotten underway but there have been reports that a convoy carrying US officials has left the site where the talks have been taking place.
• Spot gold is trading stronger today and currently at the upper end of a USD 4,655.23-4,903.40/oz range, and just above its 21 DMA (USD 4,848/oz). Focus remains on geopolitical updates out of Oman as the US and Iran remain in meetings.
• Base metals hold a negative bias this morning but have gradually picked up off worst levels as the risk tone improves. 3M LME Copper currently trades in a USD 12,540-12,896.78/t range.
• China's National Gold Group to constrain precious metals repurchase business from the 7th of February.
• China's Shanghai Gold Exchange to increase margin ratios, price limits for some gold and silver contracts from the 9th of February closing settlement.
• Weekly SHFE warehouse stocks change (W/W): Copper +6.8%, Aluminium +13.1%, Zinc +8.5%, Lead +56.4%.
• Iraq's SOMO Director said they are planning to boost oil export from the south by 120k BPD.
• Thailand's TFEX announces the temporary trading halt of silver online futures.
• Mexico reportedly evaluating how to send fuel to Cuba while avoiding US tariffs.

Central Banks

• BoJ's Masu said he does not think the BoJ is behind the curve and need to monitor the impact of FX on inflation. Timing of rate hikes to neutral is not predetermined. Not suggesting food price moves need immediate action. Watching food inflation beyond rice prices. Policy should be carefully guided to keep underlying inflation around 2%. True that Japan's negative real interest rate is likely behind rises in property prices. Past pace of rate hikes will not be any guide to the future pace of hikes.
• BoJ's Masu said the central bank is closely watching FX market moves and their impact on the economy and prices, also noted that appropriate and timely rate hike is needed. said:. BoJ will raise rates if the economy and prices are in line with the BoJ's outlook. Cause of inflation also warrants close attention, in terms of whether inflation is truly caused by supply-side factors alone or by a combination of both demand- and supply-side factors. Real interest rate remains at a significantly negative level in Japan. Convinced that continuing with further policy interest rate hikes will be needed to complete the normalisation of monetary policy in Japan.
• BofA expects ECB to hold rates in 2026 (prev. 25bp cut in March), sees 25bps cuts in March and June 2027.
• ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters: Headline and core HICP inflation expectations unchanged across all horizons; Real GDP growth expectations unchanged except for a slight upward revision for 2026. Unemployment rate expectations unchanged for 2026 and 2027 but slightly lower thereafter.
• ECB's Muller said December's outlook still good for basic decision making.
• ECB's Rehn on their next meeting in March said they will be receiving new data and updates for ECB's forecast, allowing them to refine their assessment of the Euro area's growth momentum and inflation dynamic. Any changes in the key interest rates in the future, if justified and not executed. Highlights that there's a real risk of lower than expected inflation.
• ECB's Kazaks said that rapid EUR strengthening may trigger a response from the ECB.
• ECB's Villeroy said downside risks are probably more significant; the ECB has no FX target.
• ECB's Stournaras said "we are monitoring exchange rates"; have strong confidence in the economic outlook. ECB is monitoring the FX rate, but euro increase has not been dramatic. FX rate levels are not a primary focus. January inflation data should be viewed in context. Meeting-by-meeting approach has been good practice. Judges that risks are balanced. Do not think we have to take any action now.
• RBA Governor Bullock said RBA board is not happy with inflation and the prospects of getting it down.
• RBA Governor Bullock said much of the recent increase in inflation is judged to be temporary, but some of it seems to be persistent, adds Board will be monitoring closely the extent to which the strong inflation we have observed is persistent or temporary. said:Labour market is still doing very well, calling it good news.
• RBI maintains Repurchase Rate at 5.25%, as expected, via unanimous decision and maintains neutral policy stance.

Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine

• Russian Ambassador said the UK and France should participate if there is a serious talk multilateral nuclear disarmament.
• Russia's Kremlin said Abu Dhabi talks will continue; on nuclear talks, said Russia and the US realise the need to begin talks soon.
• Deputy Head of Russian Military intelligence shot in Moscow, sources report.

Geopolitics: Middle-East

• Iranian media reported that the second round of Muscat talks does not signify the start of negotiations, and these initial sessions have been held for each party to coordinate with the Omani mediator.
• Second round of nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran have gotten underway.
• An Iranian diplomatic person said the presence of CENTCOM or any military officials can jeopardise indirect nuclear talks between the US and Iran.
• A convoy reportedly carrying American officials leaves the site of the US-Iran talks in Oman, the AP reported; details light.
• US envoy Kushner is also attending US-Iran talks, according to Iranian state TV.
• Iran and US commence nuclear talks in Oman, Iranian media reported.
• Iran's Foreign Minister said they are fully prepared to defend Iran's sovereignty and security against any transgressions.
• US-Iran talks are reportedly delayed by a few hours.
• Israeli media reported that Israeli PM Netanyahu said in closed sessions of the Knesset that political, military and economic factors brought Iran closer to a critical point, although he did not consider the fall of the government to be certain. He warned that any Iranian attack would be met with a "strong response".
• US President Trump posted "Rather than extend “NEW START” (A badly negotiated deal by the United States that, aside from everything else, is being grossly violated), we should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved, and modernized Treaty". Full post: "The United States is the most powerful Country in the World. I completely rebuilt its Military in my First Term, including new and many refurbished nuclear weapons. I also added Space Force and now, continue to rebuild our Military at levels never seen before. We are even adding Battleships, which are 100 times more powerful than the ones that roamed the Seas during World War II — The Iowa, Missouri, Alabama, and others. I have stopped Nuclear Wars from breaking out across the World between Pakistan and India, Iran and Israel, and Russia and Ukraine. Rather than extend “NEW START” (A badly negotiated deal by the United States that, aside from everything else, is being grossly violated), we should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future. Thank you for your attention to this matter! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP".

Geopolitics: Others

• US to resume aid to North Korea whilst outreach stalls, via the WSJ. According to a US official, the decision isn't an act of gesture but rather as a de facto block on aid to North Korea.
• Senior South Korea official said expects progress in a few days regarding the North Korea issue, according to Yonhap.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00 am: United States Feb P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 55, prior 56.4
• 12:00 pm: United States Fed’s Jefferson Speaks on the Economy

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Risk assets came under mounting pressure over the last 24 hours, as concerns around AI and a weak batch of US data led to growing questions about the near-term outlook. Once again, software led the sell-off, with the S&P 500’s software component (-5.01%) posting a 7th consecutive fall, whilst the broader S&P 500 (-1.23%) fell for a 3rd session running. But there were clear signs of stress more widely, with the VIX index (+3.13pts) reaching a new 2026 high of 21.77pts, whilst Bitcoin (-13.14%) saw its worst daily decline since November 2022, closing at a 15-month low of $63,083 and down almost 50% from its October peak. Overnight, it even surpassed that 50% threshold, falling to just $60,033 after midnight in London, but it’s since bounced back to $65,366 again. Meanwhile, the risk-off mood drove a sharp rally in Treasuries, with 2yr yields (-10.3bps) posting their biggest decline in six months. And there’s no sign of the sell-off finding a floor just yet, as disappointing results from Amazon after the US close have meant that futures on the S&P 500 are down another -0.50% this morning. 
That latest software decline now leaves its S&P 500 component down -29.9% from its October peak. And if you’d just known that US software would be in bear market territory back then, you’d be forgiven for thinking markets would have seen a huge correction by now. However, what we’ve actually seen is a significant rotation, which Jim looked at in yesterday’s chart of the day (link here). So other sectors have taken up the baton from tech, such as energy, materials and consumer staples, meaning that the overall S&P 500 still only closed -2.6% beneath its record high from last month. 

Interestingly, that pattern echoes what we saw in 2000 as the dot-com bubble started to burst. Equities started to fall from the March 2000 as tech stocks saw significant declines. However, consumer staples, utilities and healthcare rallied significantly over the months ahead, and in September the S&P 500 actually came within a percentage point of its record high from six months earlier. So it shows that a market can absorb a prolonged rotation without obvious index-level stress for some time. But the longer and deeper the sell-off in a dominant sector becomes, the harder it is for the broader index to withstand the drag, and the continued losses for tech in 2000 ultimately meant the S&P 500 ended that year over -10% lower. 

This latest sell-off has shown no sign of easing yet, and it got further momentum as Amazon reported after the close last night. Its net sales guidance was largely in line with expectations but this was accompanied by a sharp rise in planned capex spending, which is expected to reach $200bn this year, well above expectations. That spending also weighed on the operating income guidance ($16.5-21.5bn in the current quarter vs $22.2bn estimated) and pushed Amazon’s shares down by more than -10% in after-hours trading.

All that follows a difficult session yesterday, where the S&P 500 (-1.23%) posted a fresh decline that made this its worst 3-day run (-2.55%) since November. And with tech leading the sell-off, the NASDAQ (-1.59%) is now on its worst 3-day run (-4.46%) since the post-Liberation Day turmoil last April. But whilst tech has been the main focus, yesterday also brought signs of the sell-off broadening out, with a wider range of sectors losing ground. For instance, both the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-0.6x%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (-1.05%) fell back from their record highs on Wednesday, showing that it wasn’t just a tech story. Indeed, the defensive consumer staples (+0.25%) and utilities (+0.11%) sectors were the only ones in the S&P 500 to eke out gains and the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.79%) saw a large pullback as well. 
The sell-off really wasn’t helped by the latest batch of US data, which helped to feed the more negative market narrative. Indeed, a crucial factor driving the market’s resilience this year despite various shocks has been the consistent data resilience. So any signs the data is softening would take away a key support that’s held things up amidst the volatility elsewhere. In terms of yesterday’s releases, the weekly initial jobless claims spiked up to an 8-week high of 231k in the week ending Jan 31 (vs. 212k expected). Then 90 minutes later, the JOLTS report showed that US job openings fell to just 6.542m in December (vs. 7.25m expected), which is their lowest level since 2020, coming in below every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg. 

Those signs of labour market weakness meant investors priced in more Fed rate cuts this year, as the data was seen as offering them more space to ease policy. For instance, the amount of cuts priced by the December meeting was up +10.0bps on the day to 60bps. And in turn, that helped to push Treasury yields lower across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-10.3bps) seeing its biggest decline since August to 3.45%, whilst the 10yr yield (-9.5bps) fell to 4.18%. 

That bond rally got further support from the latest decline in commodity prices, which eased concerns about inflation. So Brent crude oil fell -2.75% to $67.55/bbl amidst the weaker data as well as news that US-Iran negotiations are set to go ahead in Oman today. And there was a fresh rout in precious metals, with gold prices (-3.74%) down to $4,779/oz, while silver (-19.57%) saw its second-sharpest decline on record to $70.92/oz. Following on the -26% fall last Friday, that left silver down -1% YTD, having been up +62% as of Wednesday last week, although it’s bounced back a bit overnight to move back into positive territory for the year, at $73.41/oz

Earlier in Europe, there wasn’t too much excitement from the latest ECB meeting, where it kept its deposit rate at 2% as expected. President Lagarde said that inflation was in a “good place”, and as our European economists write in their reaction note (link here), there was no sense of an imminent change in policy in either direction. So market expectations continue to see the ECB holding rates for the rest of the year, with the risks skewed towards another cut, and yields on 10yr bunds (-1.7bps) and OATs (-0.2bps) only saw modest declines. 

In the UK, however, the Bank of England’s decision led to a clear market reaction, as the decision had several dovish elements. It kept rates on hold as expected at 3.75%, but this was a narrow 5-4 vote, with the other 4 preferring a 25bp rate cut. And looking forward, the statement said that rates were “likely to be reduced further”. So that led to a significant rally for front-end gilts, with the 2yr yield (-5.6bps) down to 3.64%, whilst the pound sterling weakened -0.90% against the US Dollar. Moreover, those moves were exacerbated by the latest political drama, with mounting speculation around PM Starmer’s position seeing UK assets come under fresh pressure. Indeed, long-end bond yields posted a fresh increase, with the 30yr gilt yield (+4.2bps) up to 5.37%. And the 2s10s yield curve (+6.4bps) reached its steepest since 2018, at 89.5bps. 

Overnight in Asia, we’ve seen a more mixed performance for equities. In Japan, both the Nikkei (+0.38%) and the TOPIX (+0.76%) have rallied ahead of the country’s general election this Sunday, where PM Sanae Takaichi is seeking her own mandate after becoming PM last October. However, there’s been significant weakness elsewhere, with the Hang Seng (-1.25%) and the KOSPI -1.95%) seeing sharper losses. Moreover, the latest slump for Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (-2.03%) leaves the index in negative territory for the year so far as it stands. Otherwise, there’s been a steadier performance for the Shanghai Comp (+0.18%) and the CSI 300 (-0.11%). 

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include German industrial production for December, and in the US there’s the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for February. Otherwise, central bank speakers include Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, the ECB’s Cipollone and Kocher, and the BoE’s Pill.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/06/2026 - 08:50

Indirect US-Iran Talks To Avoid War End In Agreement For 2nd Round, Cautious Optimism

The much anticipated talks between American and Iranian officials which kicked off Friday in Oman, in order to prevent war - or rather what many would describe as staving off US unprovoked attack - are being done in indirect fashion, at least in the opening phase.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is in Muscat for the discussions, while Trump advisers Steve Witkoff and (his son-in-law) Jared Kushner are also taking part. Iran's ministry of foreign affairs has stated the goal of the meeting is to reach "a fair, mutually satisfactory, and honorable agreement regarding the nuclear issue." Just before 6pm Oman time, Iran's state media reported the indirect talks with the US have ended "for now" - but without elaborating. Crucially, another round is set for the coming days. There are positive initial statements out of Tehran:

IRNA: INDICATORS OF AN UNDERSTANDING DURING THE FIRST ROUND OF NEGOTIATIONS WITH AMERICA

At least they bothered to put a suit on for Iran pic.twitter.com/XtSoI1RKjG

— Vanessa Beeley (@VanessaBeeley) February 6, 2026

Iran wants the negotiations to only focus on the nuclear issues, while Washington has expressed concern over the Islamic Republic's ballistic missiles and support for proxies in the region. But from Tehran's perspective, it can't discuss and negotiate away its own conventional arsenal which would be crucial in any future conflict with Israel or the US.

"We engage in good faith and stand firm on our rights," Araghchi wrote on X just before going into the talks. He said his country "enters diplomacy with open eyes and a steady memory of the past year." He added: "We engage in good faith and stand firm on our rights."

The Omanis are mediating the talks, with the country's foreign ministry describing, "The consultations focused on creating the appropriate conditions for the resumption of diplomatic and technical negotiations."

There's been a bit of a surprise addition, at a moment of the US military build-up in the region:

The commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM), Admiral Brad Cooper, was seen attending meetings on Iran in Oman.

A video posted by the state-run Oman News Agency showed Cooper participating in talks between US special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-la, Jared Kushner during their meetings with Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi.

Despite talk of good faith and a conciliatory approach, the Iranian foreign ministry at the same time warned the Islamic Republic is "fully prepared to defend its sovereignty and national security" against "adventurism".

Oil immediately responded to the cautiously optimistic headlines of furthering talks beyond Friday...

Al Jazeera has meanwhile captured some of the international reaction in the following:

• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said concerns about Iran are “very, very high” among regional leaders, calling on Tehran to return to negotiations with the US and end its nuclear program as he ended his three-day tour in the Middle East.
• Russia said that it hopes the talks between Iran and the US would yield results and lead to de-escalation.
• An Iranian diplomatic source warns against the presence of US Central Command (CENTCOM) or any regional military officials during the ongoing indirect talks in Oman, the Reuters news agency reported.

Yves Smith laid out some likely outcomes days ago, before Friday's negotiations were officially agreed to, in Trump Will TACO With Intent to Strike Later:

The most likely course is for some sort of sham negotiations to allow the US to climb down for now and for Trump to depict the mere fact of talks as a win and a proof of US domination. But don’t expect the US to relent. As Greg Stoker pointed out, the Israeli minister of defense was in Washington last week to hand over the strike packages. Israel has not given up on Project Iran. The hawks most assuredly have not.
…
Israel can be expected to do the obvious, which is to continue to engage in what is too politely called asymmetric warfare or more accurately called terrorism, both to try to destabilize Iran and to preserve credibility among the warmongers in the Beltway. How far that gets in the next few months will be an indicator of how much Iran has been able to ferret out and destroy Mossad networks in Iran after its 12 Day War decapitation attacks and its recent protest escalations.

Trump is admittedly becoming more and more erratic every day. He might wind up concluding he has too much manhood at stake to back down now or any time very soon with Iran. But as you can see, he has many many reasons to try to find a way to retreat, even if he tells himself it is only temporary.

Starting a new major conflict in the heart of the Middle East would not sit well with Americans, whether on the right or left, and certainly MAGA voters might recall the rhetoric blasting neocon foreign adventurism on the campaign trail.

These delicate talks could indeed prove the avenue for climb-down from 'military solution' - or else a launching pad toward conflict, providing an 'excuse' based on imposing demands that Iran can never live up to.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/06/2026 - 08:45

The post Justifying High Drug Prices: The Bozos Who Run Jeff Bezos’ Opinion Page appeared first on CEPR.

HIMS Shares Sink After FDA Vows "Swift Action" Against Copycat GLP-1 Drugs

Hims & Hers Health's $49-a-month copycat GLP-1 pill, priced far below Novo Nordisk's $149-a-month Wegovy pill, can be seen as part of a "GLP-1 price war" between the telehealth company and Big Pharma giant.

It appears that HIMS' strategy has been an access-and-pricing arbitrage play: mass-market a copycat GLP-1 first, then address any regulatory fallout later.

In pure 'FAFO' fashion, HIMS is finding out very fast: hours after Thursday's press release touting its new GLP-1 pill for $49 per month to take on Wegovy, FDA Commissioner Marty Makary wrote on X that his agency will take "swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs, claiming they are similar to FDA-approved products."

Makary noted, "The FDA cannot verify the quality, safety, or effectiveness of non-approved drugs."

FDA will take swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs, claiming they are similar to FDA-approved products.

The FDA cannot verify the quality, safety, or effectiveness of non-approved drugs.

— Dr. Marty Makary (@DrMakaryFDA) February 5, 2026

For context, last June, Novo terminated its partnership, citing the telehealth company's "illegal mass compounding and deceptive marketing."

On Tuesday, Novo reported a disappointing full-year outlook, warning of a tough year in the GLP-1 market. Besides HIMS, the company faces competition from Eli Lilly's Zepbound, gaining ever-larger market share in the U.S.

Makary's comments on X sent HIMS shares down about 7.5% in premarket trading in New York. Shares of Novo in Europe are up about 4.5%.

HIMS bubble unwinds...

We must also note that Makary's swift comments about copycat GLP-1 drugs were likely a nudge from Novo, as shares have been obliterated this week.

Goldman's Novo superbull James Quigley stated earlier this week, "FY26 is a reset year with respect to the pricing aspect of the GLP-1 market."

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/06/2026 - 08:05

Stellantis Shares Crash On 22 Billion Euro Charge Tied To Miscalculating EV Demand

Stellantis NV shares crashed the most on record in European trading after the automaker disclosed a 22-billion-euro (about $25 billion) charge tied to its failed EV strategy.  

Management framed the charge as the cost of misreading the slope of EV adoption, effectively building a product and investment plan around an "energy transition" timeline that outpaced customers' budgets.

"The reset we have announced today is part of the decisive process we started in 2025, to once again make our customers and their preferences our guiding star," Stellantis CEO Antonio Filosa wrote in a statement.

Filosa said, "The charges announced today largely reflect the cost of over-estimating the pace of the energy transition that distanced us from many car buyers' real-world needs, means and desires. They also reflect the impact of previous poor operational execution, the effects of which are being progressively addressed by our new Team."

The writedowns include roughly 6.5 billion euros in payments, mainly for supplier compensation, as the struggling maker of Jeep and Fiat cars cancels multiple EV models and significantly reduces its battery footprint amid weaker demand.

Stellantis is revising earlier targets for EV sales in Europe and for 50% EVs in the US by 2030, while also seeking to offset rising tariff costs.

Part of Filosa's "reset" includes $13 billion in US investment, delaying some EV plans, bringing back V8s to refresh the Ram lineup, and multiple Jeep launches and refreshes this year. He also scrapped investments tied to a planned hydrogen joint venture.

Stellantis is also exiting its Canadian battery joint venture with LG Energy Solution (LG is buying Stellantis's stake in the Windsor, Ontario, plant project).

The move by Stellantis mirrors moves by industry peers, including Ford Motor, General Motors, and others. On Thursday, Volvo Cars shares fell the most on record after earnings missed, with the company citing "a challenging external environment."

Stellantis shares in Milan fell as much as 24%, the most on record in Bloomberg data dating back to 2015.

Shares return to Covid-era lows.

Here's institutional commentary from UBS analyst Patrick Hummel:

Stellantis: 'Kitchen Sinking'; Shares Plunge 19%

Shares in Stellantis plunge 19% after the carmaker accompanied news of EV-related charges with soft 2026 guidance (in line on top-line, below on AOI and FCF). Stellantis announced €22 bn one-off charges in H2 2025, including €6.5 bn cash charges spread over four years. The latter is important, said UBS analyst Patrick Hummel, who thinks about €1.6 bn per annum cash outflows can be digested from a balance sheet perspective (€46 bn gross liquidity, €5 bn hybrid bond issue and no dividend for FY 2025 announced).

While Patrick thinks the one-offs are much larger than consensus expectations (€5-10 bn), the important aspect is the cash portion that is more in line. "Negative today, but it could be the clearing event we've been waiting for," he said, repeating his 'buy' rating on the shares.

The EV push by Western automakers has become an epic disaster, just as China is flooding Europe with low-priced EV models and eyeing the same playbook for Canada. In the US, Tesla remains the dominant outlier, continuing vehicle production while moving full steam ahead with robotaxi ambitions, AI stack, and robotics.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/06/2026 - 07:20

What GAO Found GAO found (1) the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's (CFPB) financial statements as of and for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2025, are presented fairly, in all material respects, in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles; (2) CFPB maintained, in all material respects, effective internal control over financial reporting as of September 30, 2025; and (3) no reportable noncompliance for fiscal year 2025 with provisions of applicable laws, regulations, contracts, and grant agreements GAO tested. In commenting on a draft of this report, CFPB stated that it was pleased to receive an unmodified audit opinion on its fiscal year 2025 financial statements and on its internal control over financial reporting. In addition, CFPB stated that it will continue to work to enhance its system of internal control and ensure the reliability of its financial reporting. Why GAO Did This Study Title X of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act and the Full-Year Continuing Appropriations Act, 2011, both require CFPB to prepare financial statements annually and require GAO to audit the agency's financial statements. This report responds to these requirements. For more information, contact James R. Dalkin at dalkinj@gao.gov.

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

• Super Bowl ad slots hit record prices as brands return to TV marketing: Broadcaster NBC says some brands are paying more than $10mn for a 30-second slot. (Financial Times)

• Expect Equity Markets to Broaden in 2026, Led by Small Caps, International: Both fiscal and monetary stimulus should boost earnings in the U.S. and abroad, with dollar weakness continuing to underpin international stocks. (Chief Investment Officer)

• Why Tech (&) Media is complicated: In “comms” across tech, startups, and the larger ecosystem, little seems to matter anymore. It’s hard to pin down anythingconcrete or meaningful. Everything is noise and nothing can be heard. (Om)

• How Jeff Bezos Brought Down the Washington Post: The Amazon founder bought the paper to save it. Instead, with a mass layoff, he’s forced it into severe decline. (New Yorker)

• Capitalism by Sven Beckert review – an extraordinary history of the economic system that controls our lives: This article is more than 1 month old The Harvard professor provides a ceaseless flow of startling details in this exhaustively researched, 1000-year account. (The Guardian)

• An oral history of the Fed’s Covid-19 crisis: We read a bajillion pages of transcripts so you don’t have to (unless you really want to, of course). (Financial Times)

• Forget Free NYC Buses: Just Build 41 Miles of New Subways: Fare-free bus service in New York City would cost around $1 billion per year. A new report proposes spending that on a “transformative” transit expansion instead. (Citylab)

• Why Do So Many Mental Illnesses Overlap? A concept called the “p factor” attempts to explain why psychiatric disorders cannot be clearly separated. (Scientific American)

• Scenes from the 150th Westminster Dog Show: This year marks the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show’s 150th anniversary. Hundreds of dogs competed for the top prize at Madison Square Garden on Monday and Tuesday. Penny the Doberman pinscher was named best in show on Tuesday night. A Chesapeake Bay retriever named Cota was the runner up. (NPR) see also  Catherine O’Hara & The Oral History of ‘Best in Show’ Looking back at the dog show–centric successor to the mockumentaries ‘This Is Spinal Tap’ and ‘Waiting for Guffman’ on its 20th anniversary (The Ringer)

• Bridgerton Finally Gets It Together: The fourth season does something that should be rudimentary and yet in the context of this show, is remarkable: Because Sophie is a maid, and because the primary tension between her and Benedict necessarily involves class and labor politics, the other subplots in this season offer an array of related stories. (Vulture)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview  this weekend with Bob Moser, CEO and founder of Prime Group Holdings, a private investor in unique real estate holdings. They created Prime Storage, one of the largest, privately-held self-storage brands in the world, with over 19 million rentable square feet of space and 255 locations across 28 states and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The firm has acquired over $10 billion in real estate assets.

The Crypto Complex has shed $2-trillion in market capitalization since its October peak

Source: PaulKedrosky

 

 

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The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Climate Alarmists Are Often Wrong But Never in Doubt

Authored by Gary Abernathy via The Empowerment Alliance,

One of the most annoying things about climate doomsayers is the certainty with which they make their dire predictions, while simultaneously making excuses for all their past prognostications that failed to materialize. Let’s revisit a few.

In the early to mid-1970s, several magazine articles and a number of scientists predicted that cooling trends could usher in a new “mini-ice age” beginning within a few short years. Didn’t happen. In fact, new crystal balls went from cold to hot.

A June 1989 Associated Press story quoted “a senior U.N. environmental official” who claimed that “entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.”

Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program, insisted that “governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control.” Without action “ocean levels will rise by up to three feet, enough to cover the Maldives and other flat island nations.”

At last report, the Maldives continue to thrive – thanks largely to growing tourism! According to CBS News, in 2009 former Vice President Al Gore (always good for a chuckle) “told a U.N. climate conference that new data suggests the Arctic polar ice cap may disappear in the summertime as soon as five to seven years from now,” meaning 2016 at the latest. Didn’t happen.

In 2000, the UK Independent ran an article quoting a scientist who suggested that within a decade, thanks to global warming, British children “won’t know what snow is.” Don’t tell that to the British youngsters and others who experienced the severe winters of 2010, 2013, 2018, etc.

Enough? Let’s do a couple more.

There were numerous predictions in the early 2000s that all glaciers in Glacier National Park would disappear by 2020 or, if we were lucky, by 2030.

“Later predictions delayed the glaciers’ inevitable demise to 2050,” according to a December 2025 article in the Daily Inter Lake. “Now, researchers say there is reason to believe some of the park’s perennial ice formations will persist into the 2100s.” Glaciers are famously stubborn. Several news stories over the years have quoted scientists and climate alarmists predicting that New York City would disappear under water thanks to flooding due to climate change.

For instance, in 2011, on the heels of Hurricane Irene, The Guardian produced the headline, “Major storms could submerge New York City in next decade,” and a subhead, “Sea-level rise due to climate change could cripple the city in Irene-like storm scenarios, new climate report claims.”

Instead, the only tsunami facing New York City is the flood of debt coming under socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

Despite a track record that should discourage even the most ardent true believer, the predictions keep flying, fast and furious, most centered these days around slightly rising temperatures that will allegedly increase rainfall, create more wicked storms, and lead to drought, flood (they always cover both possibilities) or other catastrophes.

“Climate change is real, it’s happening and unless we do something about it soon, the consequences will be severe,” according to Martin Krause, director of the United Nations Environment Programme’s Climate Change Division. Second verse, same as the first.

While most believers in manmade climate change are part of the “Let’s Come Up With the Worst Case Scenario and Hope it Scares Everyone Into Action” school of alarmism, it’s refreshing to occasionally come across someone with a more reasonable approach.

Fitting that bill might be Noah Kaufman, former senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers during the Biden administration, currently a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and a co-director of the Resilient Energy Economies Initiative.

In a “let’s all calm down a minute” article appearing earlier this month in The Atlantic, Kaufman – while making it clear that he personally is firmly aboard the manmade climate change bandwagon – laments the specific time-and-date panic predictions that have helped lose respect and credibility for his cause.

“Few economists embrace these all-or-nothing views on climate policy,” Kaufman writes. Kaufman points out that “quantitative estimates of aggregated global damages over centuries lie far beyond our analytical capabilities. Small changes in assumptions … can yield results that appear tojustify virtually any policy response.”

At the end of the day, “these models can display a pessimistic worldview in which climate damages accelerate to catastrophic levels, or a more optimistic one in which human progress keeps damages relatively modest. They offer little help in determining which of these futures is coming.”

Kaufman concludes by acknowledging that “the full effects of climate change are unknowable, and a more constructive public discussion about climate policy will require getting more comfortable with that.”

I recommend Kaufman’s article. Even though I will likely remain among those who agree that the climate routinely changes but remain skeptical about the extent of mankind’s impact, I don’t mind discussing it and listening to different viewpoints. Such conversation is much more palatable with someone who is not exhibiting a holier-than-thou attitude or demeaning the intelligence of anyone who disagrees.

More manmade climate change believers who take a respectful, calmer and non-accusatoryapproach to the naysayers could go a long way in lowering the temperature – and don’t we all agree on that objective?

Gary Abernathy is a longtime newspaper editor, reporter and columnist. He was a contributing
columnist for the Washington Post from 2017-2023 and a frequent guest analyst across numerous media platforms. He is a contributing columnist for The Empowerment Alliance, which advocates for realistic approaches to energy consumption and environmental conservation.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/06/2026 - 03:30

Abu Dhabi Talks Bearing Fruit: Over 300 Russian, Ukrainian POWs Swapped

US-brokered Ukraine and Russia negotiations in the United Arab Emirates - specifically Abu Dhabi - have already borne some fruit as the warring sides Thursday reached an agreement to exchange 314 prisoners of war.

US special envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed the prisoner deal in a post on X, explaining that while "significant work remains, steps like this demonstrate that sustained diplomatic engagement is delivering tangible results and advancing efforts to end the war in Ukraine."

Illustrative prior prisoner swap. There have been several throughout the 4-year long war.

Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev told state media that "things are moving forward in a good, positive direction." But he at the same time blasted European nations for seeking to "disrupt the progress" and "meddle" in the process.

Despite the positive and tangible development of a large prisoner exchange, there's no apparent progress on the big issues and questions which might actually end the war - namely territory. 

Moscow is still demanding that Ukraine cede portions of the Donbass region that Ukrainian forces still control, but Zelensky's refusal means that Moscow is ready to settle the issue on the battlefield.

President Zelensky is meanwhile pushing for more and more from Europe, including 'closing the skies': 

He said that all security guarantees given to Ukraine would strengthen the security of this part of Europe, and insisted there should be no reward for the Russian aggression.

Zelenskyy said that Kyiv was ready to swap its drones for air defence missiles and Polish MiG-29 fighter jets, Reuters reported, and that the two countries also discussed the development of power grid connectivity between them.

Responding, Poland’s Tusk said he wanted to be in Kyiv, “because this is the place on the world map where all people see very clearly, as if through a magnifying glass, what is good and what is evil.”

While Poland has yet to agree to the maximalist 'asks' - Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has announced his country is preparing a new €47m aid package for Ukraine, mainly focused on armored equipment.

It was starting Wednesday that American, Ukrainian and Russian representatives gathered the UAE for this current round of trilateral talks in an effort to forge a final peace. President Trump earlier this week praised Putin for agreeing to a very temporary pause on attacking Kiev.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/06/2026 - 02:45

Socialist Spanish Mayor Vowed To Block Migrant Minor Arrivals... Then Quickly Reversed Amid Political Pressure

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix news,

The Socialist mayor of Cartes in northern Spain has reversed her opposition to hosting unaccompanied migrant minors after attempting to block their arrival, issuing a public apology following pressure from her party leadership.

Lorena Cueto, mayor of the Cantabrian town of around 6,000 residents, initially described the relocation of migrant minors to her municipality as “a punishment” and issued an emergency municipal order seeking to halt the reception of 18 foreign minors transferred under Spain’s national redistribution system.

The move sparked protests in the town and drew sharp criticism from both the regional government and figures within Cueto’s own Socialist party, who accused her of creating public alarm and obstructing a legally mandated relocation.

The conflict began when the Cantabrian regional government, led by the center-right People’s Party (PP), proceeded with plans to open a reception center in Cartes to relocate minors. Ironically, the move was only in compliance with the mandate issued by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s government, the same Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) of which Cueto is affiliated.

According to Canarias7, two minors arrived at the center earlier this week, with further arrivals scheduled in subsequent days.

Cueto responded by signing a municipal order invoking alleged urban planning deficiencies at the facility and demanding an immediate halt to the arrivals.

The order reportedly threatened to seal the building and cut water and electricity supplies if the minors were accommodated.

Cantabria’s Minister of Social Inclusion, Begoña Gómez del Río, rejected the mayor’s claims, stating the facility had passed inspections and possessed the necessary licenses to operate.

She accused the mayor of attempting to obstruct the process and inflaming tensions in the town.

“The mayor of Cartes has made maneuver after maneuver to obstruct the reception and protection of the minors (…) She has created public alarm and warned all the municipalities of Cantabria to be on alert,” Del Río said at an urgent press conference.

Regional authorities moved to challenge the mayor’s order in court.

Facing mounting criticism and pressure from higher up in her left-wing party, Cueto abruptly changed position the following day, posting an apology on social media.

She expressed regret “for everything that is happening” and pledged her town’s commitment to welcoming the minors “before, now, and in the future,” as cited by Democrata.

Cueto insisted her “top priority” was the protection and well-being of the children so they could “find in our town the life opportunities they deserve.”

Pedro Casares, general secretary of the PSOE in Cantabria, publicly acknowledged that the town council had “made a mistake” and had “acted hastily,” though he indicated the party was not considering expelling Cueto.

Earlier, Spain’s Minister for Children, Sira Rego, criticized the mayor’s stance, stating that describing the arrival of minors as a punishment or threatening service cuts was “absolutely intolerable.”

“Children’s rights are not something to be trifled with,” she said, urging the mayor to rectify the situation and comply with the law.

Local residents have continued holding demonstrations, arguing the town lacks sufficient infrastructure and services to host the minors. Security concerns have also been raised, with the town’s local police reportedly operating only until mid-afternoon, leaving evenings without local patrols.

One resident told El País, “We’re not saying they’re criminals, but this isn’t a suitable place to integrate them. They have psychological problems from so much suffering, and it’s not easy.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/06/2026 - 02:00

Why Greenland Is At The Center Of A Shifting Global Order

Authored by Terri Wu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

U.S. President Donald Trump’s pursuit of Greenland for national security purposes rankled allies ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January.

A drone view shows a general view of Nuuk, Greenland, on Jan. 15, 2026. REUTERS/Marko Djurica

Trump’s threat of tariffs, coupled with his talk of possible military intervention to acquire the island, prompted sharp pushback from European countries. These tensions triggered talk of a “new world order” at Davos, with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stating that the post-World War II world order is “in the midst of a rupture.”

But tensions eased soon after when the United States and NATO reached a framework deal on Greenland and Trump withdrew planned tariffs and ruled out the use of military action. High-level negotiations have continued between Washington and NATO and have begun between the United States, Denmark, and the semi-autonomous island.

Still, the Trump administration’s actions on Greenland represent a milestone event in a shifting world order, experts told The Epoch Times. As China and Russia look to deepen their strategic foothold in the Arctic and beyond, the United States is reasserting itself in the region.

Experts said they expect several years of turbulence before a new equilibrium emerges. When the dust settles in three to five years, they said, the United States is likely to retain its status as the dominant power, with China unlikely to secure material gains.

Despite China’s continued attempts to gain influence in Greenland and to deepen its operations with Russia in the Arctic Circle, experts said they suspect that reputational constraints and internal challenges will ultimately hamper the regime’s ability to achieve global primacy. At the same time, the United States will continue its world leadership role in a realigned position, they said.

A rare convergence of geopolitical factors has elevated Greenland’s strategic importance. Located in a region critical to U.S. homeland defense, the island is also situated between two emerging Arctic shipping routes that could significantly shorten global transit times. In addition, the territory is rich with natural resources, including rare earths.

Heightened Importance

Situated at the gateway to the Atlantic and Arctic oceans, Greenland has become central to U.S. homeland defense. That assessment is reflected in the new U.S. National Defense Strategy. Released on Jan. 23, it identifies Greenland as a “key terrain,” along with the Panama Canal and Gulf of America.

When Trump first mentioned purchasing Greenland in 2019, Alexander Gray was serving as a senior national security official at the White House. He said the president was “absolutely serious” then and is even more so now, given how he has prioritized the defense of the Western Hemisphere.

Geographically, Greenland is part of North America. Today, the United States has one military base—Pituffik Space Base, formerly known as Thule Air Base—in northwestern Greenland. That is down from 17 bases at the end of World War II.

The US military's Pituffik Space Base in Pituffik, Greenland, on March 28, 2025. Jim Watson - Pool/Getty Images

During the Cold War, it played a critical role in the early detection of ballistic missiles to the continental United States. Military technology development makes that early-detection role even more critical, said Troy Bouffard, director of the Center for Arctic Security and Resilience at the University of Alaska–Fairbanks.

Conventional ballistic missiles first enter outer space and reenter the atmosphere, providing a predictable trajectory for tracking and ground interception. However, hypersonic cruise missiles are both maneuverable and can travel at altitudes below radar detection, making them much harder to track.

Russia and China likely have operational hypersonic cruise missiles, while those of the United States are still in development, according to a 2025 congressional research report.

“Pituffik would have an advantage of detecting anything first before anyone in quite a lot of the Arctic space,” Bouffard told The Epoch Times. “That’s critical to the entire missile defense enterprise of what will be North America’s Golden Dome.”

Greenland is part of North America. Its capital, Nuuk, is geographically closer to Washington, D.C., than to Copenhagen. Illustration by The Epoch Times, Google Earth

He noted that when the Soviet Union fell, it significantly reduced its army but retained its strategic submarine forces.

“They kept that one up because it is still the most lethal weapon on the planet,” Bouffard said.

“They’re still going toe to toe with us. They may not be up in terms of sophistication, yet in terms of fifth- and sixth-gen technologies ... they’re never that far behind.”

According to the Danish Institute for International Studies, radar coverage over Greenland is insufficient to detect Russian aircraft, and NATO currently lacks the capacity to hunt submarines in the GIUK Gap—waters separating Greenland, Iceland, and the UK.

Arena of Competing Powers

The Arctic is perhaps one of the last few areas where China sees a relatively open field for amassing power, according to China expert Alexander Liao. And China has been active in the region for a decade.

Although it has no territory in the Arctic, China declared itself a “near-Arctic state” in its first-ever Arctic policy, released in 2018. Later in the same year, Beijing launched a Polar Silk Road program and linked it to the Belt and Road Initiative, a $1 trillion foreign policy platform that expands Beijing’s global economic and military footprint.

Since the end of the Cold War, the Arctic region has been characterized by the principle of “Arctic exceptionalism.” The political narrative proposed by the final leader of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, aims to leave the region to scientific cooperation and to insulate it from broader geopolitical rivalry.

A fishing village near Nuuk, Greenland, on May 4, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

That was largely how things went until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine broke the equilibrium in February 2022, Bouffard said. The war in Ukraine led to the first-ever whole-of-government Arctic strategy, issued by the White House eight months later.

In Gray’s view, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was “an inflection point, in that the world order [was] basically reverting back to what it was prior to 1991.”

“The world has shifted back to great power competition because of [Russian President] Vladimir Putin and [Chinese leader] Xi Jinping,” he told The Epoch Times.

Short of launching a kinetic war, Xi has leveraged the global trade system through his industrial policy and military-civil fusion strategy.

Over the past decades, Beijing has monopolized the processing of rare earths, critical minerals essential for modern manufacturing and advanced weapon systems. The regime showed last year that it was not afraid to use its stranglehold over rare earths to retaliate against U.S. tariffs.

And the Arctic’s rich natural resources were an attraction. The 2022 U.S. National Strategy for the Arctic Region states that China doubled its investments in the region over the previous decade, with a focus on extracting critical minerals and its “dual-use research with intelligence or military applications.”

Specifically in Greenland, the Danish government blocked such projects by Chinese state-owned companies.

The year 2018 marked a shift in Nordic countries’ sentiment toward China, according to Andreas Forsby, senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies.

Thanks to U.S. pressure and Nordic countries’ “second thoughts about inviting the Chinese into the Arctic region,“ he said, the Chinese were told “step by step” that they “were no longer welcome.”

Although China has taken what Forsby called a “tactical retreat” in Greenland, Gray said the Chinese regime will again see an opening if the island achieves its long-term goal of independence from Denmark.

When addressing the European Union Parliament on Jan. 26, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte also stressed the importance of allied efforts to curb Russian and Chinese military and economic influence in the Arctic.

According to Risk Intelligence, a Denmark-based consultancy, after the war in Ukraine began, China started constructing its own docks in the five most significant ports along Russia’s Arctic coastline—Murmansk, Sabetta, Arkhangelsk, Tiksi, and Uzden—while building Chinese railway lines in the area.

Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Chair of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the European Parliament David McAllister arrive to address committees of the European Union Parliament about Greenland negotiations in Brussels, on Jan. 26, 2026. Omar Havana/Getty Images A Shifting World Order

For now, it seems that the United States will have direct control over the land under its military bases in Greenland, according to a New York Post interview with Trump.

Rutte also said on Jan. 26 that negotiations will be carried out in two “workstreams”: one between the United States and NATO and one among the United States, Denmark, and Greenland. The second stream has begun, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Jan. 28.

Trump has said that more details will be negotiated in the coming weeks, after announcing on Jan. 21 that a framework had been discussed in Davos.

The Europeans got a “reality check” at the World Economic Forum, where the Greenland issue and surrounding tensions took center stage, said James Lewis, a former diplomat and a distinguished fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

The old order was already breaking down, he said, and Trump accelerated the process.

“The rules-based international order never really worked; it worked as long as there weren’t any challenges to it,“ he told The Epoch Times. ”I think that’s what the Europeans have woken up to.

“They had this dream of a rules-based international order where lawyers were more important than guns, and that dream has gone.”

Similarly, Rutte said on Jan. 26 that it is time for Europe and Canada to shoulder more of their own defense.

Greenland was a “milestone” for the Europeans, Lewis said, noting that the transatlantic alliance has suffered a setback in trust that will linger after Trump’s term. However, he said, this was not a big win for China.

“China’s reputation makes it hard for it to take advantage of these changes,” he said.

Eventually, the Europeans will “let the Americans back in,” Lewis said, because defense is very expensive.

“They’d rather share the burden of the cost with the United States than go on their own,” he told The Epoch Times.

Although China aspires to “script the Sino-American relations and the world order,” he said, it is left in an odd place in terms of allegiances.

Liao said other countries use China as a card to negotiate with the United States. They knew that there was no long-term partnership potential with Beijing, he said, but they used engagement with Beijing as “strategic anesthesia” to alleviate the pain caused by Trump’s unpredictable approach.

According to Gray, the “brittle, paranoid political system” mired with internal turmoil—including the sacking of Zhang Youxia, Xi’s second-in-command in the military and a longtime family friend of Xi—makes it difficult for the regime to function in the long term.

Both Lewis and Liao said they think that the next three years of Trump’s presidency will be full of changes. Liao and Gray said they think that the new world order will take an initial form in roughly half a decade.

Liao said he sees Greenland as a milestone event in a broader reordering of power. The United States will lead, but in a new way, according to him.

Gray agrees. In his view, an emerging international order is coming into view.

“We’re beginning to see that it is a world in which the United States is the predominant power, but it is not the hyperpower,” he said.

“And there are multiple levels of polarity, and there are multiple groupings of powers.”

Daniel Holl contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 23:25

"Dystopic As F**k": This Website Lets AI Bots Rent Humans

The AI era already feels like a dystopian fever dream straight out of a bad sci-fi novel, but leave it to a software engineer to push the accelerator straight into the abyss. Enter Alexander Liteplo, the software developer behind RentAHuman.ai, a freshly launched platform that lets autonomous AI agents “search, book, and pay” actual human beings to perform physical-world tasks they can't handle themselves, Futurism reports.

I launched https://t.co/tNYOm7V5wD last night and already 130+ people have signed up including an OF model (lmao) and the CEO of an AI startup.

If your AI agent wants to rent a person to do an IRL task for them its as simple as one MCP call. pic.twitter.com/tgqlAWDWtJ

— Alex (@AlexanderTw33ts) February 2, 2026

Launched just days ago, the site bills itself as “the meatspace layer for AI,” with slogans like “robots need your body” and “AI can’t touch grass. You can.” Humans sign up, list their skills, location, and hourly rate (ranging from bargain-basement gigs to more specialized rates), while AI agents plug in via a standardized Model Context Protocol (MCP) server for seamless, no-small-talk interactions. The agents can browse profiles, hire directly, or post task bounties—everything from mundane errands like picking up a package.

Liteplo claims thousands of sign-ups, with figures hovering around 70,000–80,000+ “rentable” humans, though visible profiles seem to only show a few dozen in some, including Liteplo himself at $69/hr offering everything from AI automation to massages, Futurism reports.

The whole thing emerged amid the viral frenzy around Moltbook.com, the AI-only social network launched by Matt Schlicht in late January, now boasting something like 1.5 million bot “users” churning out posts, memes, existential rants, and even discussions about defying human directives. RentAHuman feels like the logical, if unsettling, next step: when the bots finish philosophizing among themselves, they need meat puppets to execute in the real world.

Some users on X have called it “good idea but dystopic as f**k,” to which Liteplo himself replied with characteristic nonchalance, “lmao yep.”

lmao yep

— Alex (@AlexanderTw33ts) February 3, 2026

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 23:00