"Market That Never Existed": Nvidia CEO Sparks Frenzy In Memory Stocks

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang emphasized in his Monday CES keynote that memory will be a major value driver across the AI universe, a view that aligns with our observation in 2H25 that data-center buildouts are aggressively absorbing DRAM and HBM capacity. With supply already tight and pricing soaring, this environment is translating into earnings tailwinds for memory producers, prompting UBS to say last week that the current memory upcycle could "turbo-charge" Samsung Electronics' profits.

"For storage, that is a completely unserved market today," Huang told the audience at CES on Monday. "This is a market that never existed, and this market will likely be the largest storage market in the world, basically holding the working memory of the world's AIs."

Chipmakers led gains on Tuesday after Huang highlighted storage as an "unserved market," with SanDisk soaring as much as 28%. Storage companies Western Digital and Seagate Technology also posted double-digit percentage gains.

Mizuho trading-desk analyst Jordan Klein told MarketWatch that Huang's comments are "bullish" for memory companies. He noted that Huang discussed "how important memory will be for AI use cases and inferencing, such as long reasoning and [key-value] cache to recall all user inquiries with agentic AI."

SanDisk and other memory and storage companies are "key beneficiaries" of the push for "AI inferencing and AI at the edge" in 2026, Bank of America analysts led by Wamsi Mohan told clients recently.

Chatbots: soaking up all the world's power, water and memory pic.twitter.com/L2mcdcLSko

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 24, 2025

Mohan expects tech firms to retain large amounts of data for training, analytics, and compliance purposes, with demand for storage "skyrocketing in tandem." In particular, he noted the growing demand for EVs, drones, surveillance, and sports technology.

Also, last week, UBS analyst Nicolas Gaudois highlighted to clients the uptick in memory is expected to "turbo-charge earnings" for Samsung's memory business. The report is available in full here.

The latest DDR5 DRAM pricing on Amazon!

Last month, Goldman analyst Maho Kamiya told clients that mounting concerns about soaring memory prices pose new risks for Nintendo, which manufactures consumer electronics such as the popular Switch 2.

The great memory crunch has arrived.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 11:55

US Announces Revision Of American Citizenship Tests

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has revised the naturalization tests that all applicants must pass to officially become citizens, the agency said in a Jan. 5 post on X.

Children participate in a U.S. citizenship ceremony at the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) district office in New York on Jan. 29, 2013. John Moore/Getty Images

“Our new version of the test will ensure all new citizens understand the privilege of citizenship and what it means to be an American,” the agency said.

USCIS did not provide more details regarding the specific changes it has made in the tests.

There are two naturalization tests administered by USCIS to applicants—one for English language skills and another for civics knowledge.

On the agency’s Naturalization Interview and Tests resource page, last updated on Oct. 31, 2025, USCIS said it was implementing an updated 2025 naturalization civics test to align with a Jan. 20 national security presidential action from President Donald Trump.

“During the civics test, you will answer important questions about American history, U.S. government, and civics,” the agency said.

“The 2025 naturalization civics test is an oral test consisting of 20 questions from the list of 128 civics test questions. You must answer 12 questions correctly to pass the 2025 test. You will fail the test if you answer nine of the 20 questions incorrectly.”

The new 2025 civic test is applicable to people who filed Form N-400 for naturalization after Oct. 20, 2025. Individuals who applied prior to this date will be administered the 2008 naturalization civics test, which requires applicants to correctly answer six out of 10 questions from a list of 100.

Some of the questions asked in the 2025 civics tests include the form of government in the United States, the number of amendments in the U.S. Constitution, explanation of rule of law, parts of the U.S. Congress, number of seats on the Supreme Court, the individual who wrote the Declaration of Independence, the war that ended slavery in the United States, and the name of an American Indian tribe, according to the test document.

There are special exemptions for lawful permanent residents aged 65 or older who have been residents for 20 or more years.

Such individuals need to study a set of 20 questions rather than the usual list of 128. Moreover, “you may also take the civics test in the language of your choice. The USCIS officer will ask you to answer 10 out of the 20 civics test questions with an asterisk. You must answer at least six out of 10 questions (or 60 percent) correctly to pass the 2025 version of the civics test,” the document said.

Official Language Test

The language test for naturalization requires that the applicant “demonstrate an understanding of the English language, including the ability to read, write, and speak basic English,” according to the USCIS.

Speaking and understanding skills will be determined by a USCIS officer during the eligibility interview.

In the reading test, an applicant has to read aloud one out of three sentences provided to demonstrate their ability. And for writing, they must write one out of three given sentences accurately.

On March 1, Trump signed a presidential action that designated English as the official language of the United States.

“From the founding of our Republic, English has been used as our national language. Our Nation’s historic governing documents, including the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution, have all been written in English,” Trump wrote.

“It is therefore long past time that English is declared as the official language of the United States. A nationally designated language is at the core of a unified and cohesive society, and the United States is strengthened by a citizenry that can freely exchange ideas in one shared language.”

On Feb. 28, before the Trump action, the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) criticized the move, arguing it contradicts the nation’s founding principles and marginalizes millions of Americans.

“America is stronger when we embrace multilingualism. Over 350 languages are spoken in the U.S., expanding our global influence in trade, diplomacy, and business. Bilingual and multilingual individuals give our economy a competitive edge and strengthen our communities,” Roman Palomares, LULAC national president, said.

“Limiting language access is not just exclusionary—it harms our future. We must uplift, not restrict, the diversity that has made this nation a global leader.”

According to a March 17 report from Pew Research Center, 82 percent of U.S. adults in a survey said it was “extremely/very” or “somewhat” important to make English the official language of the United States.

Responses were split along political lines. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning individuals, 73 percent said it was “extremely/very” important for English to be a national language, compared to just 32 percent among Democrats and Democrat-leaning individuals.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 11:35

The Majority Leader of the House of Representatives announces bills that will be considered under suspension of the rules in that chamber. CBO estimates the effects of those bills on direct spending and revenues.

China Launches Anti-Dumping Probe Against Japan Over Key Chip-Making Chemical

The China-Japan spat now seems to be accelerating by the day, with Tokyo warning in the aftermath of Tuesday's dual use export curb announcement by China's commerce ministry that the fresh action could "impact more than 40% of Chinese exports to Japan" - according to Bloomberg.

In unveiling its fresh punitive measures Tuesday, marking a serious escalation, a Chinese government spokesperson railed against Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's "erroneous" comments from last November where she suggested her forces could defend Taiwan in a future invasion by China.

"These comments constitute a crude interference in China’s internal affairs, seriously violate the one-China principle and are extremely harmful in nature and impact," the statement said, followed by a warning that any entity or individual which violates the export ban will be held legally accountable. These new controls on 'military-civilian' dual use are likely to affect shipments of semiconductors and rare earth materials to Japan's Self-Defense Forces and defense industry firms - which is without doubt the intent, and signals that greater punishment and damage could be further implemented at any time.

Within hours of Beijing unveiling these measures, Masaaki Kanai, secretary general of the Japanese Foreign Ministry’s Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, had "strongly protested and demanded the withdrawal of these measures."

Anadolu Agency

Kanai conveyed the formal diplomatic protest to the Chinese embassy's deputy chief of mission in Tokyo, Shi Yong. Kanai said the measures "deviate significantly from international practice, is absolutely unacceptable and deeply regrettable."

But Beijing isn't backing down, also after its sought-for formal retraction and apology from Takaichi has failed to materialize. Instead, Japan is bracing for continued incremental punitive measures. The latest includes China's Commerce Ministry further announcing an anti-dumping probe into Japan Dichlorosilane imports. According to the new statement and press release:

China's Ministry of Commerce announced on Wednesday that it has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imports of dichlorosilane originating from Japan. Dichlorosilane is a chemical critical to the manufacture of semiconductor chips.

The investigation is not scheduled to conclude until January next year, and could be extended for an additional six months if deemed necessary, according to a ministry statement. On Tuesday, the ministry announced control measures on the export of dual-use items to Japan.

According to a ministry spokesperson, the investigation was initiated after requests by domestic manufacturers in China.

"The preliminary evidence submitted by the applicant indicates that from 2022 to 2024, the volume of dichlorosilane imported from Japan showed an overall increasing trend, with its cumulative price decline reaching 31 percent," the spokesperson said.

But some analysts consider that there still a chance for de-escalation and walk-back, with Global risk consultancy Teneo describing that the lack of clarity in China’s announcement may be deliberate.

"The brief statement by China’s commerce ministry is vague, and the impact of the new measures could range from almost entirely symbolic to highly disruptive," the consultancy said. "By triggering concern in Japan about the ongoing availability of critical Chinese industrial inputs, the announcement puts immediate pressure on Takaichi to offer concessions," Teneo added.

"A plausible scenario is that the commerce ministry initially rejects a small handful of license applications, creating only minor supply-chain disruption but signaling potential for broader damage in future unless Tokyo takes conciliatory action."

Bloomberg noted overnight that shares tied to rare earths rose across Asia-Pacific markets within the day after the announcement. It reviews that Tokyo trading, Toyo Engineering Corp - which develops technology to extract rare earths from the seabed - surged 20%. And Cerium producer Daiichi Kigenso Kagaku-Kogyo Co jumped as much as 27%. Australian-based companies surged as well, with Lynas Rare Earths Ltd climbing as much as 16%, its biggest gain since July, and Australian Strategic Materials Ltd advancing nearly 10%.

On Wednesday a fresh Bloomberg headline further noted: "The Japan-China squabble is causing some jitters after a strong start to the year for the region’s stocks." It added: "The rally had also started to show signs of overheating. The 14-day relative strength index for the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed above 70 this week, entering technical overbought territory for the first time since early October."

Despite the open question of just how the export controls will be implemented, China Daily has indeed confirmed that the restrictions will extend to rare earth-related products.

China had already been steadily retaliating through measures related to curbing trade, cultural exchanges, and tourism - coupled with threats of more punitive action to come. There have lately been some serious military 'close calls' as well.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 11:15

An Arctic Chill In Greenland

By Elwin de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy at Rabobank

You may already have buckled yourself up, but an arctic chill may also require you to wear an extra vest these days. President Trump and some officials in his administration amplified threats to take Greenland. Preferably by “buying” it, but by force if necessary.

The White House yesterday said it is discussing options for acquiring Greenland, including potential use of the military. The key reason put forward in a statement is that it sees this action as neccessary to “deter our adversaries in the Arctic region”. "The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the U.S. military is always an option at the commander-in-chief's disposal," the White House said.

Several government officials did try to take the sting out of that last sentence. US special envoy to Greenland, Jeff Landry, told CNBC that Trump isn’t ready to seize the island and the President “supports an independent Greenland,” whilst the Wall Street Journal reported that Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers during a classified briefing on Monday that recent administration threats against Greenland did not signal an imminent invasion and that the goal is to buy the island from Denmark.

Meanwhile US Senate Democrats have said they plan to introduce a resolution to block Trump from invading Greenland. The US has portrayed its action in Venezuela as support for the ‘arrest' of Maduro, which -some argue- offered the president more leeway. But the Greenland case may not be so easy to fit into that category.  

Still, the threat remains wide open on the table now. And that this risks driving a big wedge between the US and its allies is clear. Earlier this week, Denmark’s Premier Mette Frederikson had already warned that, while she is taking the threats by the Trump administration seriously, “everything stops, including NATO and thus the security that has been established since the end of the Second World War”, should the US choose to attack another NATO country.

What is interesting, is that the US has long neglected its military presence on Greenland. Since 1951 it has had a Defense Agreement with Denmark, establishing the operation of Pituffik (Thule) Air Base on the island. During the Cold War this hosted up to 6,000 US personnel across several camps; today that presence has shrunk dramatically to roughly 150 service members. Last June Denmark’s parliament expanded US access to the island through the 2023 Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA), giving it broad rights to station personnel, store equipment, conduct maintenance and exercises and have jurisdiction over US troops.

The reference to these existing arrangements was also a key feature in a (quite unusual) joint statement by the leaders from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK and Denmark yesterday. It notes that “Arctic security remains a key priority for Europe and it is critical for international and transatlantic security. NATO has made clear that the Arctic region is a priority and European Allies are stepping up. We and many other Allies have increased our presence, activities and investments, to keep the Arctic safe and to deter adversaries. The Kingdom of Denmark – including Greenland – is part of NATO.” The statement emphasizes NATO unity and collective security in the Arctic and the importance of adhering to UN principles: sovereignty, territorial integrity and the inviolability of borders. It also declares that Greenland’s future is for its people and Denmark to decide.

How the situation and diplomatic activity around Greenland evolves in the coming weeks could also have a bearing on that other – and much more acute – dossier, namely Ukraine. On that front there was actually some positive news yesterday. After meeting in Paris with Zelenskyy and European leaders from the ‘coalition of the willing’, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff said that “significant progress” had been made on a security guarantee framework.

With their Paris Declaration – Robust Security Guarantees for a Solid and Lasting Peace in Ukraine, European leaders clearly wanted to project some rare Euro-Atlantic unity. The statement suggests, among other things, that the US would support a US-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism and that there will be binding commitments to support Ukraine in the case of a future armed attack by Russia. If approved by Washington this would be a significant step forward, although many details still need to be fleshed out. It is also very unclear how this would land in Russia and –if Russia dismisses the plan– how allies and particularly the US would respond.

So far, markets have remained largely unfazed despite the geopolitical landslides that have been taking place in recent weeks. The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high yesterday and so did the Eurostoxx 600 index. Whilst Treasury yields rose by 1 to 2 basis points, European yields slipped, as investors took their cues from mixed PMI surveys and relatively benign inflation data from the region. The euro also weakened vis-à-vis the dollar, with EURUSD falling below the 1.17 handle.

December PMI surveys for Spain and Italy showed contrasting developments, with Spain surprising positively (composite index up 0.5 points to 55.6) but Italy negatively (composite index down 3.5 points to 50.3). Together with small downward revisions in the French and German PMIs, the overall message is that the European economy likely entered a soft spot towards the end of 2025. This confirms our cautious view on the economy for the next several months.

Meanwhile, inflation data surprised to the downside. French inflation was down one notch in December, where expectations were for a slight rise. The headline print moderated to 0.8% from 0.9% whilst harmonized inflation eased to 0.7% from 0.8%. This print again underscores that France remains in the lower league when it comes to inflation in Europe. The fall in inflation was mainly attributed to a more pronounced decrease in energy prices, particularly petroleum, INSEE noted. Fresh food inflation accelerated, whilst the decline of prices in manufactured goods moderated to -0.4% y/y from -0.6% y/y. Services inflation stayed at 2.2% y/y.

In Germany, the fall in inflation was more pronounced. Harmonized inflation for December dropped no less than 0.6 percentage points to 2% (consensus: 2.2%). Although a fall in food and energy inflation added their bit, a significant fall in core inflation – in contrast to the French numbers – was a key driver for the German inflation rate. The national measure for core inflation dropped 0.3 percentage points. There were notable declines in prices of clothing and recreation. The latter tend to be volatile items and quite sensitive to distortions in seasonal patterns (such as the timing of holidays etc.), so not all of the drop in core inflation may stick as we head into 2026.

Overall, though, the benign inflation data from Germany and France shifted investor’s focus to the possibility that the ECB could still cut rates if both the economy and inflation were to slip further in the months ahead. The ECB doves have been relatively quiet of late, but these kind of numbers are sufficient to keep some speculation alive.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 10:15

Donroe Doctrine: US Seizes Russian-Flagged Tanker In Atlantic, Intercepts Dark-Fleet Ship In Caribbean

Update (1014ET):

"Donroe Doctrine" to clean up the Western Hemisphere was busy Wednesday morning, with the seizure of the Russian-flagged oil tanker Marinera (formerly Bella 1) in the North Atlantic, followed by U.S. forces seizing a stateless dark-fleet tanker in the Caribbean region.

The seizure of Marinera is the headliner this morning, given that Russian warships and a submarine are nearby, raising the risk that the situation could spiral out of control after Moscow warned the Trump administration in recent days to back off the tanker.

Within the last hour, U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) wrote on X that U.S. forces "apprehended a stateless, sanctioned dark-fleet motor tanker without incident." SOUTHCOM said, "The interdicted vessel, M/T Sophia, was operating in international waters and conducting illicit activities in the Caribbean Sea. The U.S. Coast Guard is escorting M/T Sophia to the U.S. for final disposition."

SOUTHCOM concluded the post by signaling the Donroe Doctrine: "Through Operation Southern Spear, the Department of War is unwavering in its mission to crush illicit activity in the Western Hemisphere. We will defend our Homeland and restore security and strength across the Americas."

In a pre-dawn action this morning, the Department of War, in coordination with the Department of Homeland Security, apprehended a stateless, sanctioned dark fleet motor tanker without incident.

The interdicted vessel, M/T Sophia, was operating in international waters and… pic.twitter.com/JQm9gHprPk

— U.S. Southern Command (@Southcom) January 7, 2026

Welcome to the era of the Donroe Doctrine.

*   *   * 

Update (0920ET):

U.S. European Command (EUCOM) confirmed on X that the Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security, in coordination with the Department of Defense, seized the Russian-flagged oil tanker Marinera (formerly Bella 1) for violating U.S. sanctions.

"The vessel was seized in the North Atlantic pursuant to a warrant issued by a U.S. federal court after being tracked by the USCGC Munro," EUCOM said.

The @TheJusticeDept & @DHSgov, in coordination with the @DeptofWar today announced the seizure of
the M/V Bella 1 for violations of U.S. sanctions. The vessel was seized in the North Atlantic pursuant to a warrant issued by a U.S. federal court after being tracked by USCGC Munro. pic.twitter.com/bm5KcCK30X

— U.S. European Command (@US_EUCOM) January 7, 2026

EUCOM continued...

pic.twitter.com/E0hii3A6Zo

— U.S. European Command (@US_EUCOM) January 7, 2026

Read the earlier updates: Russian warships and submarines are nearby.

*   *   * 

Update (0855ET):

NBC News reports that the U.S. Special Forces operation in the North Atlantic to seize a Russian-flagged oil tanker, the Marinera (formerly Bella 1), was successful.

U.S. officials told the outlet that the Marinera "has been secured" following a dramatic, weeks-long chase on the high seas.

The U.S. seized two oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela last month as part of President Trump's gunboat diplomacy. But why would a U.S. Coast Guard cutter and surveillance planes chase an empty, rusted, Russian-flagged tanker across the Atlantic unless there was potentially something far more valuable on board?

*   *   * 

Update (0814ET):

The Russian outlet RT News has posted footage that appears to show U.S. military forces attempting to board the Russian-flagged tanker Marinera early Wednesday morning in the North Atlantic.

❗️ Military forces, presumably American, are attempting to board Russian-flagged civilian tanker 'Marinera' RIGHT NOW — RT source

RT has obtained first exclusive visual confirmation of the boarding attempt https://t.co/lWf62lN7hH pic.twitter.com/rn9xfLmNxi

— RT (@RT_com) January 7, 2026

Reuters reports that the U.S. is "attempting" to seize the Venezuela-linked oil tanker after a two-week chase involving a U.S. Coast Guard vessel and surveillance aircraft.

From like an hour ago or more, as the Americans got into position to attempt boarding.

A massive swarm of RAF jets were patrolling around the north sea, potentially shadowing the Russian Naval fleet on route to escort it. pic.twitter.com/DxxioNbLw6

— Lee Mitchell (@Lee_Mitchell91) January 7, 2026

More color on the operation from the outlet:

The officials, who were speaking on condition of anonymity, said the operation is being carried out by the Coast Guard and the U.S. military.

They added that Russian military vessels, including a submarine, were in the general vicinity when the operation took place.

Marinera made an abrupt heading change as the US MH-6 Little Bird, the 160th SOAR's smallest helicopter, approached the vessel. 

MARINERA (9230880) just made a sudden southbound turn at 11:26 UTC at 60.9386, -16.37014. Decelerated from 9kn to 8kn speed. pic.twitter.com/dH8BnpF6r5

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) January 7, 2026

This is what the "Donroe" doctrine to clean up the Western Hemisphere looks like. However, certainly appears that conflict fears are on the rise ... 

*   *   * 

In what can only be described as straight out of a Cold War techno-thriller, The Hunt for Red October vibes, the U.S. Coast Guard is chasing a rusting oil tanker formerly known as Bella 1, now renamed Marinera, flying the Russian flag about 300 miles south of Iceland as it heads toward the North Sea.

On Tuesday, Russian outlet RT News posted an exclusive video on X showing Marinera being chased by a U.S. Coast Guard cutter in the North Atlantic.

BREAKING WORLD EXCLUSIVE: RT obtains FIRST footage of Russian-flagged civilian Marinera tanker being CHASED by US Coast Guard warship in the North Atlantic https://t.co/sNbqJkm5O5 pic.twitter.com/XtbBML3a6j

— RT (@RT_com) January 6, 2026

The Wall Street Journal then reported overnight that Russia is countering the Trump administration's attempt to seize Marinera by deploying a submarine and other warships to escort the allegedly now-empty tanker.

The chase in the North Atlantic follows last month's incident near Venezuelan waters, when the tanker - then stateless and flying a false flag - was subject to a U.S. judicial seizure order. As the Coast Guard attempted to board, the crew switched the ship's registration to Russia, prompting Moscow to demand that the U.S. halt its pursuit.

Trump's gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean, along with a broader push for Western Hemisphere defense - what some have called the "Don-roe Doctrine" - has set the tone for the year: U.S. forces intend to control the seas in the Americas, not China and not Russia.

One key question is why Washington is hyper-focused on this particular tanker, given that the global dark fleet numbers more than 1,000 tankers hauling sanctioned crude worldwide. The ship's quick registration in Russia, without inspection or formalities, may only suggest that the tanker, which departed Venezuelan waters, could be carrying other cargo bound for Russia.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 10:14

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.4%, up from 52.6% the previous month. The employment index increased to 52.0%, up from 48.9%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 54.4% December 2025 ISM® Services PMI® Report

Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in December, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered at 54.4 percent, finishing 2025 on a positive note with its 10th month in expansion territory — and its highest reading — of the year.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee:

“In December, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 54.4 percent, 1.8 percentage points higher than the November figure of 52.6 percent and a third consecutive month of expansion. The Business Activity Index continued in expansion territory in December, registering 56 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than the reading of 54.5 percent recorded in November. The New Orders Index also remained in expansion in December, with a reading of 57.9 percent, 5 percentage points above November’s figure of 52.9 percent. The Employment Index expanded for the first time in seven months with a reading of 52 percent, a 3.1-percentage point improvement from the 48.9 percent recorded in November — the fifth consecutive monthly increase since a reading of 46.4 percent in July.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 51.8 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than the 54.1 percent recorded in November. This is the 13th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 64.3 percent in December, its lowest level since a reading of 60.9 percent in March 2025. The December figure was a 1.1-percentage point drop from November’s reading of 65.4 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for 13 straight months.br /> emphasis added

Employment expanded following six consecutive month of contraction.

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires were little changed and total separations were unchanged at 5.1 million each. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for November; the employment report to be released on Friday will be for December.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings decreased in November to 7.15 million from 7.45 million in October.
The number of job openings (black) were down 11% year-over-year. 

Quits were up 4% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

Some Republicans Are Distancing Themselves From MAGA

Tuesday marks five years since the January 6 unrest of 2021, when self-proclaimed MAGA supporters entered the Capitol.

Now, with Donald Trump back in the White House and entering the second year of his second term in office, a recent poll by NBC News Decision Desk shows signs that his strong support base has started to splinter.

As Statista's Anna Fleck details below, the share of self-identified MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters ticked down seven percentage points between April and December in 2025, from 57 percent of Republicans to 50 percent.

This loss was mirrored by the increase of seven percentage points among self-identified traditional Republican party members, which rose from 43 percent to 50 percent.

You will find more infographics at Statista

The shift indicates there had been a distancing of some members of the party from Trump within that timeframe, while the subsection maintained party values.

Meanwhile, the share of Republican voters who said they strongly approved of Trump’s actions ticked down.

Among traditional Republicans, strong approval ticked down from 38 to 35 percent, while among MAGA supporters, strong approval dropped to 70 percent from 78 percent - still a strong majority.

Over the eight months between the two survey waves, the Trump administration has had to contend with the resurgence of the Epstein files as well as growing criticism over his handling of the economy and trade, in a country where concerns over the cost of living are high.

As of the December poll, overall approval stood at 42 percent, with overall “strong approval” at 21 percent.

It remains to be seen how the capture of deposed president Nicolas Maduro will affect Trump's ratings.

Reuters reports that among MAGA supporters, the move has so far been largely praised.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 09:55

Somali UN Ambassador Linked To Ohio Health Care Company Sanctioned For Medicaid Fraud, HHS Says

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has confirmed that Abukar Dahir Osman, Somalia’s permanent representative to the United Nations and the current president of the U.N. Security Council, is associated with an Ohio-based home health care company that the federal government previously took action against following a Medicaid fraud conviction.

“I can confirm public speculation that Ambassador Abukar Dahir Osman, Permanent Representative of Somalia to the UN and President of the Security Council, is in fact associated with Progressive Health Care Services, a home health agency in Cincinnati,” HHS Deputy Secretary Jim O’Neill said in a Jan. 5 post on X.

“HHS has previously taken action against Progressive in response to a conviction for Medicaid fraud. More to come.”

O’Neill and HHS did not immediately provide details about the nature of the Medicaid fraud case or specify what enforcement actions were taken against Progressive Health Care Services.

The Epoch Times has contacted Progressive Health Care Services for comment, including details about the referenced Medicaid fraud conviction, any enforcement actions taken, and the company’s current regulatory status. No response was received by publication time.

Osman’s ties to the Ohio company drew widespread attention last week after people on social media circulated records suggesting he held a senior corporate role while simultaneously serving as Somalia’s top diplomat to the United Nations.

Screenshots of Osman’s LinkedIn profile, shared by the Libs of TikTok social media account, list him as having served as “Managing Director” of Progressive Health Care Services from 2014 to May 2019—overlapping with his tenure as Somalia’s permanent representative in New York. Other publicly available records indicate he was also listed as president and chief executive officer of the company.

Libs of TikTok further reported that the firm’s National Provider Identifier appeared on a federal exclusion list under a code associated with Medicare and Medicaid-related crimes. HHS has not publicly confirmed those specific details.

Osman is serving as president of the U.N. Security Council for January 2026, a rotating position held by member states on a monthly basis.

The Epoch Times has reached out to Somalia’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations seeking comment from Osman on the HHS statement and his association with Progressive Health Care Services. No reply was received by publication time.

Context of Broader Fraud Investigations

The disclosure involving the U.N. ambassador comes as federal and state authorities investigate what officials have described as large-scale fraud schemes involving government-funded programs across several states.

In Minnesota, the Feeding Our Future case—now the largest pandemic-related fraud prosecution in U.S. history—has resulted in dozens of convictions. Federal prosecutors allege that organizers falsely claimed to provide meals to children while diverting hundreds of millions of dollars in taxpayer funds.

Additional investigations into Medicaid-funded services, including home health care and autism therapy programs, are ongoing. Federal officials have said the total fraud exposure across just a subset of Minnesota’s Medicaid programs could exceed $9 billion.

President Donald Trump and senior administration officials have recently taken enforcement action against Minnesota, including freezing federal child care funds after alleged fraudulent day care schemes were uncovered.

FBI Director Kash Patel recently revealed that federal officials have indicted dozens of people in an alleged $250 million scheme in Minnesota that allegedly included crimes such as wire fraud, money laundering, and conspiracy.

The Small Business Administration recently suspended nearly 6,900 Minnesota borrowers from future federal loan programs after reviewing pandemic-era Paycheck Protection Program and Economic Injury Disaster Loan approvals. SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler said the borrowers had received roughly $400 million in loans now under investigation.

Amid mounting scrutiny, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat, announced on Jan. 5 that he would not seek reelection, saying he wanted to focus on combating fraud instead of campaigning.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 09:35

Climate-Change Fears Drop, AI Anxiety Pops: What Will Happen In 2026?

If the last years have shown us anything, it’s that a lot can change, fast.

While many events cannot be foreseen, can others?

Ipsos asked more than 23,600 people across 30 countries about their predictions for the coming year, with a survey on topics ranging from artificial intelligence to the climate and the World Cup.

This data is based on one survey alone and although it does not focus on additional knowledge of experts and analysts, it does capture a snapshot of sentiments and standpoints in different countries and regions.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, many people around the globe seem to be in agreement that global temperatures will rise in 2026. Around eight in ten respondents (78 percent) said that next year, we can expect the world to warm further still. This belief was most widespread in Indonesia (91 percent), Singapore (90 percent), South Korea (86 percent) and Malaysia (85 percent). In a similar vein, nearly seven in ten (69 percent) of respondents said they expect to see more extreme weather events in the country that they live in than last year. Meanwhile, only 48 percent of respondents felt that their government will introduce more demanding targets to reduce emissions. Respondents in Indonesia were the most optimistic about this prospect (80 percent).

You will find more infographics at Statista

Views on whether the conflict currently raging in Ukraine will come to an end in 2026 were pessimistic.

Only around three in ten people (29 percent) thought it would be the case in Ukraine, although this marks a three percentage point increase on predictions from the same time one year ago.

In terms of the online world, two thirds of respondents (67 percent) said that they expect AI will replace jobs in their country in 2026, up three percentage points from last year.

At the same time, 43 percent agreed that AI will lead to many new jobs being created in their country.

Other job worries persist, with almost half of the total respondents predicting that their country will be in recession in 2026, with Turkey (68 percent), Thailand (66 percent) and Romania (63 percent) reporting the highest shares of people who held this opinion.

Nearly two in five worldwide (38 percent) think major stock markets around the world will crash.

While Trump has repeatedly asserted that he would like a Nobel Peace Prize, the vast majority thinks this is unlikely to happen. A total of 21 percent of respondents said they think this is likely, compared to 64 percent who said they thought it was not. India had the highest share of respondents who said they thought it would happen, at 51 percent. In the United States, 25 percent said the same.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 09:15

ADP Private Payrolls Rebound But Miss Estimates After California Jobs Tumble

One month after ADP reported a dismal -29K private payrolls print for November, tied for the worst month since March 2023, and just in time to validate the Fed's latest rate cut, moments ago ADP reported that in December, the US added 41K payrolls, which while a solid jump from last month's -29K, missed consensus estimates of a +50K print. 

The breakdown showed continued weakness in manufacturing jobs, which shrank by 3K in December, offset by a 44K increase in Service jobs, despite another notable drop in Information (-12K) and Professional/Business services (-29K) jobs. Also notable is that all the weakness was in the Western region (read California) where 61K jobs were lost, while a breakdown of establishments by size saw solid hiring by small and medium companies, offset by a modest 2K increase amid Large companies.

“Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson.

There was more good news for the Trump admin which appears to have halted the sharp deterioration in the labor market: year-over-year pay for job-stayers rose 4.4% in December, unchanged from November while jobchangers saw their pay growth accelerate to 6.6% from 6.3%.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 08:59

Medicaid Will 'Claw Back' Fraud Funds From Minnesota: Agency Head

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

Minnesota will feel an “increasing vise grip of financial penalties” to help make up for taxpayer dollars lost to fraud, Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Service, said Jan. 6.

His agency is auditing all 14 Medicaid programs that Minnesota flagged as vulnerable to fraud; that excludes 73 other Medicaid programs Minnesota runs.

The agency also will “claw back that money” from current Medicaid payments that were to be made to Minnesota, Oz told Fox News.

“This is a major problem for the state, because they’ve got to own the fact that they have been bilking the federal taxpayer [because of] their sloppy behavior for years,” Oz said.

The Epoch Times sent a message to Gov. Tim Walz’s office seeking comment but received no immediate reply.

During a news conference earlier in the day, Walz said he would refuse to step down from the governorship amid the fraud scandals, although he announced Jan. 5 that he was abandoning his reelection bid. His current term in office expires in January 2027.

The governor also criticized President Donald Trump for clamping down on Somalis. Amid increasing concerns over Somalis being accused of defrauding government programs, the president recently halted a deportation protection that had been afforded to Somali refugees for decades and also ramped up federal scrutiny.

A large percentage of Minnesota fraud defendants charged so far are of Somali descent, federal prosecutors have said.

“Somali immigrants who are minding their own business” are facing unfair federal actions, such as Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations, Walz said. More than 2,000 federal agents from the Department of Homeland Security have surged to Minnesota as fraud concerns have swelled.

In addition, the federal government has cut off payments to child care centers in Minnesota and is requiring additional verification of children being served.

Oz said his agency has had difficulty tracking at least $500 million in Medicaid payments to Minnesota. Available data makes it hard to figure out how it was billed and “where it went,” he said.

Officials asked Walz to provide a “corrective action plan” by the end of 2025, but the Walz administration responded late—on New Year’s Eve—with a plan that Oz called “insufficient.” As a result, the federal government is clamping down on Minnesota Medicaid payments, he said.

President Trump doesn’t want taxpayers across the nation footing the bill for Minnesota’s roughly 6 million residents, Oz said.

Officials see signs that government-program fraud or misuse may be higher in California than it is in Minnesota, Oz said, but he gave no figures. California, home to about 39 million people, is six and a half times more populous than Minnesota.

In the North Star State, an attitude known as “‘Minnesota Nice’ made it easy for them to make out like bandits,” Oz said. Minnesota has a longstanding tradition of providing generous social benefits without asking many questions, as The Epoch Times reported previously. That attitude—which may have made the state more susceptible to fraudsters—appears to reflect values of the Scandinavian immigrants who settled in Minnesota.

Beyond the burgeoning fraud scandals, Oz raised an additional concern arising from use of Medicaid. He recently learned that, under federal law, “if you sign someone up for Medicaid, you also give them the right to vote.”

“So, you’re building up a very partisan group of individuals. This is political patronage at the expense of Medicaid,” he said. “The criminal part here is not just a horrible waste and fraud and abuse of our federal ... tax dollars, but you’re taking money from our most vulnerable citizens.”

“If you’re lying about the fact that you have Somalian kids pretending to be autistic, that takes services away from kids who truly have autism. ... You’re penalizing our most vulnerable,” he said.

That’s why the Trump administration “will not tolerate this,” Oz said.

“We’re aggressively going after this fraud.”

Federal prosecutors have charged dozens of people, mostly Somalis, with defrauding programs intended to feed meals to children, provide children with therapy for autism, and provide affordable housing to the elderly and disabled. Dozens of defendants have already been convicted, and prosecutors expect additional suspects to be charged in those schemes and possibly others. Generally, the fraudsters filled out bogus paperwork, claiming to provide services that were never rendered, prosecutors said, then reaped payments for those services through federal programs.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 08:45

The post Trump’s United States as Number Three appeared first on CEPR.

Stocks Head For First Drop Of 2026 As Focus Turns To Geopolitics, Macro

US equity futures are weaker but off session lows, as markets pause ahead of a series of US labor and economic data. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.1% as global equity markets have run into some resistance after a strong start to 2026; Nasdaq futures dip 0.2% with TMT underperforming premarket, with most Mag7 and Semis names lower while Energy, Healthcare and Staples rallying pre-mkt. Bonds are bid with yields down 2-4bp as the curve flattens; the USD is unchanged. n commodities, Ags are the bright spot as we see some profit-taking in Metals and oil fell after Trump said Venezuela would turn over as many as 50 million barrels of crude to the US with sales proceeds are expected to be split between the two countries. Today's US economic calendar includes December ADP employment change (8:15am), December ISM services index, November JOLTS job openings and October factors orders (10am). Scheduled Fed speakers include Bowman on banking supervision and regulation at 4:10pm

 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Nvidia +0.6%, Tesla +0.2%, Apple -0.2%, Alphabet -0.3%, Microsoft -0.1%, Amazon -0.2%, Meta Platforms  -0.4%)

• Miners and royalty companies are down as gold and silver pull back with broader markets as traders look to upcoming US economic data later this week.
• AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS) falls 6% after Scotiabank cut the recommendation on the satellite broadband company to sector underperform, saying it faces an “uphill battle” given the leadership position of Elon Musk’s Starlink.
• First Solar Inc. (FSLR) falls 4% after Jefferies cut its recommendation to hold from buy on concerns over tariffs and its valuation.
• Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY) climbs 10% with the company to acquire Israeli startup Mentee Robotics in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $900 million, as the self-driving car system company expands its robotics capabilities.
• Monte Rosa Therapeutics (GLUE) rises 38% after the biotech announced positive interim data from an ongoing Phase 1 clinical study.
• Strategy (MSTR) climbs 4% after MSCI decided for now to keep digital asset treasury companies in its stock market indexes.
• StoneCo (STNE) falls 5% after after the Brazilian digital payments company said CEO Pedro Zinner will resign for personal reasons effective March 2026.
• Ventyx Biosciences Inc. (VTYX) is up 56% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Eli Lilly & Co. is in advanced talks to acquire the company for more than $1 billion to expand its work in immunology.

In corporate news, MSCI decided against excluding digital-asset treasury companies from its MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes in its February review, sending Strategy higher in extended trading. And an Amazon AI tool offered merchants’ products without their consent.

Stocks have been on a tear on optimism over solid earnings growth and inflation remaining sufficiently contained for the Federal Reserve to keep cutting interest rates. That optimism has persisted despite a worsening geopolitical backdrop, including US actions in Venezuela, its threats of intervention elsewhere and rising tensions between China and Japan. But on Wednesday, the global rally stalled with geopolitical strains dampening the mood. Three big days of data are kicking off, with JOLTS job openings and ADP numbers due later. Memory chip shortages are in focus for AI bulls.

“Shifting trends create uncertainties that need to be priced into assets,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro and multi-asset at Lombard Odier. “We are talking about a breathing period, with investors taking time to rethink how to deploy their concentrated equity investments in a deconcentrating world.”

Mining stocks were among the biggest decliners in premarket trading, with Newmont Corp., Freeport-McMoRan Inc. and Barrick Mining Corp. all down 1% or more. Precious metals joined the broader pullback, with silver falling below $80 an ounce and gold breaking a three-day winning streak. Copper retreated from an all-time high. 

For AI bulls, memory chips are in focus after comments from Nvidia’s Jensen Huang about the need for memory and storage at CES on Tuesday. Stocks including Sandisk and Western Digital have surged in the past few days, and the rally is likely to continue: Samsung expects shortages to drive price hikes and DRAM specialist Nanya posted 445% year-on-year sales growth for December. 

Three key days of economic data kick off on Wednesday as investors track the Fed’s likely path for rates, with November jobs openings and ADP Research’s private-sector payrolls figures due. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services is expected to show a slight moderation in December activity. 

“Further declines in the JOLTS hiring and quit rates would add to signs of worsening labor demand,” wrote Elias Haddad, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. “If so, it would validate the 50 basis points of cuts priced into Fed funds futures over 2026 and weigh on the dollar.”

Ahead of a slate of data in the next few days, a record-sized block trade was placed in the federal funds futures market. The trade was struck in the January contracts for a size of 200,000, the largest ever as confirmed by CME Group. The motive behind the transaction is unclear. It could be related to an unwinding of existing bets or a wager that could benefit from a potential shift in market pricing for the Fed’s next rate decision.

Other developments rattling sentiment include comments from the White House that Trump is considering many ways of acquiring Greenland, and won’t rule out the use of military force. In Asia, China escalated a feud with Japan by announcing a probe on chipmaking material, while rare earth stocks surged on the back of new China-Japan export curbs.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is little changed with energy stocks a drag as oil prices slide. Energy stocks lag after President Donald Trump said Venezuela would send oil worth up to $2.8 billion to the US, while utilities outperform. 

Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

• Italgas shares rise as much as 10% to hit a new record high after gas distribution operator Snam announced an offer of green bonds due 2031 in an aggregate notional amount of €500m, exchangeable for existing ordinary shares of Italgas.
• Thyssenkrupp shares gain as much as 5.3%, leading defense stocks higher after the Trump administration and Ukraine’s allies moved toward an agreement to offer security guarantees long sought by Kyiv.
• ArcelorMittal shares climb as much as 3.5% to the highest level in nearly 14 years after Morgan Stanley installed the stock as top pick in Europe’s steel sector.
• Atlas Copco shares rise as much as 9% to the highest level since February after Bernstein upgrades on expectations that earnings have bottomed.
• InPost shares retreat as much as 8.3%, ceding some of the previous day’s 28% gain triggered by the parcel locker operator’s announcement of a takeover proposal.
• Fresnillo shares drop as much as 4.1%, leading precious metal miners lower as gold prices decline.
• NatWest shares fall as much as 3% after they are downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Barclays.
• Equinor shares slip as much as 3.8% as European oil stocks track crude prices downwards after Trump said Venezuela would relinquish as much as 50 million barrels of oil to the US.
• Kingspan shares drop as much as 5.4% after the company said it won’t pursue an IPO of Advnsys and will continue to report the data center materials unit as a wholly owned and broadly distinct reporting segment.
• Redcare Pharmacy shares plunge as much as 9.7%, the most since August, after the company posted fourth-quarter sales that came in below expectations due to weakness in over-the-counter products.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities declined, as escalating trade tensions between China and Japan damped investor sentiment following the recent rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.7%, poised to snap a four-day advance. Technology megacaps including TSMC and Tencent were among the biggest drags, while Alibaba dropped on fresh concerns over Beijing regulations. A key gauge of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong led losses, while benchmarks in Japan and Taiwan also fell. China imposed controls on exports to Japan with potential military uses, intensifying a standoff between Asia’s top economies in a dispute related to Taiwan. Automakers were the biggest contributor to losses in Japan on the news. The Japan-China squabble is causing some jitters after a strong start to the year for the region’s stocks. The rally had also started to show signs of overheating. The 14-day relative strength index for the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed above 70 this week, entering technical overbought territory for the first time since early October.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed with muted moves across the G-10 complex.

In rates, treasury futures hold gains accumulated during London morning amid bigger rallies in European bond markets spurred in part by weak German retail sales data for November. US yields richer by 1bp-4bp across a flatter yield curve, with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads respectively 3bp and 2bp tighter; 10-year near 4.145% is about 3bp richer by 3bp on the day with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 1.5bp and 4.5bp. European government bonds advance for a third day, with buying more pronounced at the longer end of the curve. German 10-year yields fall 4 bps to a one-month low after weak economic data prompted traders to increase their bets on interest-rate cuts by the European Central Bank. Gilts outperform, with UK 10-year borrowing costs sliding 7 bps. European borrowers brought a record number of tranches to the market on Wednesday and are set to raise at least €38.1 billion ($44.5 billion), a number that’s likely to increase over the course of the day. Issuance in the US investment-grade bond market topped $72 billion in the first two days of the week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Focal points of US session include December ADP employment change and ISM services gauge and November JOLTs job openings. 

In commodities, WTI crude futures fall 0.5% to $56.80 a barrel after Washington moved to exert greater control over Venezuela’s industry, with President Donald Trump saying the country would turn over millions of barrels to the US. West Texas Intermediate traded near $57 a barrel. Investors were also keeping tabs on the primary bond market as the first week of 2026 saw a surge in global issuance, signaling strong confidence despite heightened geopolitical risks. Spot silver falls 2% and back below $80/oz. Gold also drops. Bitcoin is down 1.3% near $92,000.

Today's US economic calendar includes December ADP employment change (8:15am), December ISM services index, November JOLTS job openings and October factors orders (10am). Scheduled Fed speakers include Bowman on banking supervision and regulation at 4:10pm. Albertsons is scheduled to report results before the market open. Earnings from Jefferies and Costco December sales are due later in the day.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed, DAX +0.6%
• CAC 40 -0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.14%
• VIX +0.4 points at 15.15
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1205.69
• euro little changed at $1.1692
• WTI crude -0.9% at $56.59/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Marco Rubio has told lawmakers that President Trump plans to buy Greenland rather than invade it, while Trump has asked aids to give him an updated plan for acquiring the territory. NYT 
• Trump will meet with oil company chief executives Friday at the White House to discuss plans for them to enter Venezuela and drill. Trump announced that Venezuela would relinquish 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the US, worth roughly $2.8 billion at the current market price. BBG 
• China's Foreign Ministry said China's legitimate rights and interest in Venezuela must be protected, in regards to US President Trump's statement on Venezuela oil.
• The US for the first time on Tuesday backed a broad coalition of Ukraine's allies in vowing to provide security guarantees that leaders said would include binding commitments to support the country if Russia attacks again. RTRS 
• Chevron and private equity firm Quantum Capital Group are teaming up on a bid to buy the international assets of sanctioned Russian oil company Lukoil. FT 
• China launched an anti-dumping probe into Japan’s chipmaking material dichlorosilane, deepening trade tensions after Beijing imposed export curbs — potentially affecting over 40% of its shipments to the country. Tokyo called the measures unacceptable. BBG 
• AI “fatigue” is driving cash into shares of S&P 500 companies that aren’t the Magnificent 7, especially those that would benefit most if an expected uptick in economic growth materializes. BBG
• old is neck and neck with Treasuries to become the biggest reserve asset for foreign governments, driven by a year of explosive price gains and aggressive central bank buying. Barron’s 
• Eurozone CPI for Dec was inline on the headline at +2% (down from +2.1% in Nov) while core cooled to +2.3% (vs. the Street +2.4% and down from +2.4% in Nov). BBG 
• Waner Bros. Discovery Board of Directors unanimously recommended shareholders reject amended Paramount tender offer, saying the offer remains ‘Inadequate.’ BBG 
• Goldman forecast MSCI China and CSI300 to appreciate 20% and 12% in 2026, after key benchmarks gained 20%-30% in the past year mainly on multiple expansion. 

Trade/Tariffs

• China's Commerce Ministry announces an anti-dumping probe into Japan Dichlorosilane imports; investigation begins on Jan 7 and will end a year later, but can be extended by 6 months if needed.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said China curbs targeting only Japan are regrettable, adds we'll consider necessary response as we assess China's export curb details.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed as momentum began to wane despite the fresh record levels on Wall Street. ASX 200 marginally gained amid  strength in tech and defensives, while participants also digested monthly inflation data, which printed softer-than-expected but remained sticky. Nikkei 225 lagged amid Japan's frictions with China after the latter imposed export controls on dual-use items to Japan. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retreated with the Hong Kong benchmark pressured by losses in energy names and tech stocks following a decline in oil prices, and with platform names pressured by China announcing management measures for online platforms. Meanwhile, the mainland bourses kept afloat for most of the session but eventually faltered as the mood deteriorated and were also not helped by a substantial net liquidity drain of around CNY 500bln in the PBoC's open market operations.

Top Asian News

• Maersk (MAERSKB DC) said Asia-Pacific ocean freight markets enter 2026 with cautious optimism; intra-Asia volumes are gaining momentum, and supply chain planning is increasingly focused on agility, regional connectivity, and early Chinese NY preparations.
• South Korea's President Lee said had a serious talk with China regarding supply chains and peace on the Korean Peninsula.
• Baidu's (9888 HK) AI chip arm Kunlunxin aims to raise up to USD 2bln in Hong Kong IPO, according to Bloomberg citing sources. - Co. has picked China International Capital Corp., Citic Securities Co. and Huatai Securities, while China Securities International is also working on the potential offering.
• UMC (2303 TT) Dec (TWD): Revenue 19.3bln (prev. 19.0bln Y/Y).
• China's market regulator and cyberspace authorities unveiled two separate documents on Wednesday to further regulate the country's livestreaming e-commerce sector and online trading platforms, Xinhua reported.
• China announces management measures for online platforms and China's market regulator said online platforms must not sell below cost or disrupt market competition. Online platforms must not sell below cost or disrupt market competition.

European bourses are mixed. The FTSE 100 (-0.6%) is under pressure, hit by losses across underlying commodity prices whilst the DAX 40 (+0.6%) posts gains by around half a percent. European sectors hold a very slight negative bias. Utilities holds towards the top of the pile, joined closely by Construction & Materials, and Real Estate. To the downside, Energy is the laggard, in-fitting with pressure seen across crude benchmarks whilst Luxury downside weighs on Consumer Products & Services.

Top European News

• Italian PM Meloni plans overhaul of Italy's voting system to aid re-election bid, according to FT.

FX

• DXY is flat intraday but resides in a current 98.497-98.690 parameter as traders await key US labour market data due ahead of Friday's official employment situation report; ADP's gauge of nonfarm employment is expected to print 49K in December vs -32K in November. JOLTS job openings are expected to fall to 7.61mln in November (prev. 7.67mln in October); in the October report, the quits rate fell to 1.8% from 2.0%, while the vacancy rate was unchanged at 4.6%. Elsewhere, the ISM Services PMI is seen inching down a little in December. Currently, the index is well within Monday’s 98.25-98.86 range, and on either side of its 100 DMA (98.59).
• EUR/USD was initially pressured, continuing the downside seen in the prior session. Though the downside did reverse following the EZ HICP release, which printed in-line with expectations, seemingly as bets for a cooler-than-expected print following the German series unwind. Currently just shy of the 1.1700 mark, after making a peak of 1.1702 overnight.
• AUD/USD is choppy following overnight outperformance given softer-than-expected monthly inflation, but as the headline figure and the core reading remain sticky and above the RBA’s 2-3% target.
• USD/JPY found resistance at yesterday’s high and remains within that session's 156.30-156.80 parameter. Other G10s are largely uneventful and follow the choppy price action.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0187 vs exp. 6.9896 (Prev. 7.0173).

Fixed Income

• A firmer start for fixed income. Initial gains were a familiar ~ 5 and ~ 20 ticks for USTs and Bunds, respectively.
• During the early European morning, the benchmarks picked up further, to highs of 112-17+ and 128.19, firmer by 7+ and 51 ticks at most, respectively. A move that occurred in relatively limited newsflow, but as the European risk tone soured. A deterioration that extended on the mixed/downbeat APAC performance, as the region failed to sustain record Wall St. levels.
• EZ HICP Flash figures for December printed in-line with expectations (though the core figures were a touch short of expectations). Some pressure was seen in Bunds following the release, as participants unwound bets for a cooler print after the prelim. German inflation series. Also, no move to Construction PMIs this morning or a dire set of German retail data. However, on the latter, the implications have perhaps been limited given the marked upward revision to the prior (October) series.
• Finally for Bunds, around five ticks of pressure were seen following the tepid results for the new 2036 Bund line. Currently trading at 128.20.
• Gilts acknowledged the bullish action in peers and opened higher by 29 ticks at 92.54 before extending to a 91.84 peak and are currently leading the fixed space. Thereafter an above 3x b/c to a 5yr Gilt auction spurred some very modest upside in Gilts, taking UK paper above the 92.00 mark.
• UK sold GBP 4.25bln 4.125% 2031 Gilt; b/c 3.50x (prev. 3.23x), average yield 3.980% (prev. 4.093%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.2bps).
• Germany sells EUR 4.542bln vs exp. EUR 6bln 2036 Bund; b/c 1.29x, average yield 2.83%, retention 24.3%

Commodities

• WTI and Brent futures fell after Washington moved to tighten control over Venezuela’s oil industry, with President Trump saying Venezuela would hand over up to 30-50mln bbls of crude to the US to be sold at market prices, with proceeds managed by the President for the benefit of both countries. Nat Gas on the other hand rebounds following yesterday's slump cited by some to a warmer-than-expected winter.
• Gold eased as focus shifted away from geopolitical risk toward upcoming US data releases, with bullion finding resistance at USD 4,500/oz and now trading near the bottom end of a USD 4,441.44-4,500/oz after a more than 4% rally across the prior three sessions. Meanwhile, Chinese gold reserves data this morning showed rising reserves for a 14th consecutive month. Spot silver fell back under USD 80/oz after peaking at USD 82.77/oz earlier.
• 3M LME copper prices are choppy but holding above the USD 13k/t mark and not far off record highs, with Friday also in focus amid a potential SCOTUS ruling on the Trump tariffs.
• Chevron (CVX) , ConocoPhillips (COP) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) will meet with US President Trump on Friday, according to WSJ.
• US President Trump posted "I am pleased to announce that the Interim Authorities in Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 MILLION Barrels of High Quality, Sanctioned Oil, to the United States of America". Full post "I am pleased to announce that the Interim Authorities in Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 MILLION Barrels of High Quality, Sanctioned Oil, to the United States of America. This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States! I have asked Energy Secretary Chris Wright to execute this plan, immediately. It will be taken by storage ships, and brought directly to unloading docks in the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter!".
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.8mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillate +4.9mln (exp. +2.1mln), Gasoline +4.4mln (exp. +3.2mln), Cushing +0.7mln.
• Several oil storage tanks are on fire in Russia's Belgorod region after a Ukrainian drone attack, according to the regional governor.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian drone hits apartment building in Tver, Russia, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Russia sends a submarine to escort tanker the US tried to seize off Venezuela, according to WSJ.
• Several oil storage tanks are on fire in Russia's Belgorod region after a Ukrainian drone attack, according to the regional governor.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• "Iran's president called on law enforcement agencies not to attack protesters", Sky News Arabia reported.
• "Iran's army chief: Trump's and Netanyahu's statements on the demonstrations represent a threat to which Tehran will respond", Sky News Arabia reported.
• US President Trump presses Venezuela to dismiss agents from China, Russia, Iran and Cuba, according to Axios.

Geopolitics: Others

• "Iran's president called on law enforcement agencies not to attack protesters", Sky News Arabia reported.
• Yemeni Saudi-backed government forces reportedly advance towards Aden.
• "Iran's army chief: Trump's and Netanyahu's statements on the demonstrations represent a threat to which Tehran will respond", Sky News Arabia reported.
• China's Foreign Ministry accused the US of bullying and using brazen force, in regards to Venezuela.
• Ukrainian drone hits apartment building in Tver, Russia, according to Sky News Arabia.
• South Korea President Lee said China may move structure in the sea between the two countries.
• US President Trump presses Venezuela to dismiss agents from China, Russia, Iran and Cuba, according to Axios.
• China's Taiwan Affairs Office named two people to be punished for Taiwan independence activities, while it stated the people as well as their relatives are banned from entering the mainland, Hong Kong and Macau.
• Russia sends a submarine to escort tanker the US tried to seize off Venezuela, according to WSJ.
• US President Trump's administration warns Venezuela's Interior Minister to cooperate or face potential targeting, according to sources.
• US said military is among 'options' to acquire Greenland and annexation of semi-autonomous territory from Denmark is ‘national security priority’, according to FT.
• US Secretary of State Rubio told lawmakers that US President Trump aims to buy Greenland, and downplayed military action, according to WSJ.

US Event Calendar

• 8:15 am: Dec ADP Employment Change, est. 50k, prior -32k
• 10:00 am: Dec ISM Services Index, est. 52.2, prior 52.6
• 10:00 am: Nov JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7647.5k, prior 7670k
• 10:00 am: Oct Factory Orders, est. -1.19%, prior 0.2%
• 10:00 am: Oct F Durable Goods Orders, est. -2.2%, prior -2.2%
• 10:00 am: Oct F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 10:00 am: Oct F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.5%
• 10:00 am: Oct F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.7%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The strong risk rally of 2026 showed no sign of relenting yesterday, as markets continued to shrug off geopolitical developments. That meant both the S&P 500 (+0.62%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.58%) advanced to new record highs. Moreover in Europe, there was also a decent bond rally thanks to some soft inflation numbers, raising hopes that the ECB’s next move might still be a cut rather than a hike, particularly after the final composite PMIs were a bit weaker than expected. So it was a strong day for the most part, whilst Brent crude oil prices (-1.72%) reversed Monday’s rise as fears of disruption to oil flows from Venezuela eased. Oil is down a similar amount again overnight as Trump has announced that 30-50m barrels will be delivered to the US from Venezuela and most Asia equities have finally paused for breath this morning, trading lower.

In terms of the latest in Venezuela itself, there weren’t really any major developments in the last 24 hours. But multiple press outlets reported that the Venezuelan regime was cracking down on dissent as they sought to consolidate their power after Maduro’s removal. So with the regime still in power, it remains unclear exactly how the US would be involved with the country’s administration over the short-to-medium term, although Trump previously said on Sunday that “If they don’t behave, we will do a second strike”. In the meantime, Venezuela’s assets continued to recover yesterday, with the 2027 bond up another +2.22% to 43.5 cents on the dollar. However, several US energy companies which outperformed on Monday began to struggle again, including Chevron (-4.46%), SLB (-0.39%) and Halliburton (-3.41%), despite the broader move higher in US equities.

Those declines for the oil majors came as Brent crude (-1.72%) erased Monday’s +1.65% rise amid headlines suggesting that the US was keen to avoid disruption to Venezuela’s oil exports. Reuters reported that Venezuela was in talks to export oil to the US while Bloomberg reported that Chevron had booked extra tankers to Venezuelan ports this month, so potentially mitigating the decline in oil shipments from the country amid the recent US naval blockade. Indeed, Brent is trading another -1.65% lower this morning after Trump said last night that Venezuela would turn over “between 30 and 50 MILLION barrels” of oil to the US. There wasn't much extra detail but this sort of volume is around 30-50 days of pre-US blockade production so this could be the oil that has been sitting around and probably doesn't mark the start of a trend.  

Whilst investors were focused on Venezuela, there were also fresh headlines on Greenland, as several European leaders issued a statement defending its sovereignty. The group included the leaders of Denmark, Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Poland and Spain, who said that “It is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.” It also said that Arctic security must “be achieved collectively, in conjunction with NATO allies including the United States, by upholding the principles of the UN Charter, including sovereignty, territorial integrity and the inviolability of borders. These are universal principles, and we will not stop defending them.” On the other side of the Atlantic, the White House said in a statement to the press that Trump and his advisers were “discussing a range of options” to acquire Greenland and that use of the military “is always an option”.   

For markets at least, there was no sign that all this news was having a particularly large impact, and the recent strength in European assets showed no sign of relenting. In fact, there was a fresh round of optimism after the latest European inflation numbers were weaker than expected, which dampened fears about a potential hawkish pivot from the ECB this year. That came as the German CPI reading fell to +2.0% on the EU-harmonised measure (vs. +2.2% expected), whilst the French reading was in line with expectations at +0.7%. So that cemented expectations that the Euro Area-wide print today might come in on the softer side.  

Those inflation prints and the prospect of a more dovish ECB helped to bring down yields across Europe, with those on 10yr bunds (-2.8bps), OATs (-1.9bps) and BTPs (-3.5bps) all moving lower. Moreover, that trend got further momentum after the final PMI readings were on the weaker side, with the final composite PMI for the Euro Area revised down four-tenths from the flash print to 51.5. That backdrop helped to support equities too, with the STOXX 600 (+0.58%), the FTSE 100 (+1.18%) and the DAX (+0.09%) all at record highs.   

Over in the US, the equity rally also proceeded, with the S&P 500 (+0.62%) exceeding the record high it posted on Christmas Eve. Interestingly, that came in spite of ongoing weakness among the tech mega caps, with the Mag 7 (-0.36%) dragging on the broader index. There were mixed moves within the Mag-7 amid headlines from the CES trade show, with Tesla (-4.14%) leading on the downside after Nvidia (-0.47%) announced plans for a self-driving AI the previous evening. But US equities saw broad gains otherwise, with three-quarters of the S&P 500 constituents higher on the day, while the small cap Russell 2000 (+1.37%) extended its YTD gain to +4.07%. An impressive performance with just three trading days behind us.
In the meantime, US Treasuries lost ground, unlike their counterparts in Europe, with the 2yr yield (+1.2bps) up to 3.46%, whilst the 10yr yield (+1.2bps) reached 4.17%. We did hear from a few Fed speakers as well, although there wasn’t much that shone light on the future policy path. For instance, Governor Miran said “I think that well over 100 basis points of cuts are going to be justified this year.” But that was in line with his previous dovishness, so markets weren’t reactive. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Barkin said that “policy will require finely tuned judgments balancing progress on each side of our mandate”, and that it was “a delicate balance”.  

The very strong rally in Asian equities so far this year has slightly reversed this morning with the Nikkei (-0.96%) and Hang Seng (-1.21%) leading the losses. The KOSPI (-0.21%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.08%) are also lower but with the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.15%) just about defying the regional trend, following a slowdown in Australia’s core inflation in November, which supports the argument for the RBA to maintain current interest rates (details below). S&P 500 (-0.04%) and Nasdaq futures (-0.12%) are trading just below the flat line.

Returning to Australia, CPI increased by +3.4% y/y in November, down from +3.8% in October and below market expectations of +3.7%. On a m/m basis, the headline CPI remained unchanged at 0.0%. The trimmed mean CPI, which is the RBA’s preferred measure of inflation, slowed to 3.2% y/y from +3.3%, aligning broadly with expectations. On a monthly basis, trimmed mean inflation rose by +0.3%, remaining consistent with October's figures. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar (+0.33%) continues its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session, trading at 0.6760 against the US dollar, despite the easing of inflation in Australia during November. Additionally, yields on Australia’s 10-year government bonds are -2.9bps lower, currently trading at 4.76% as I write this.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI print for December, German unemployment for December, whilst in the US there’s the ISM services index for December, JOLTS job openings for November, and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for December. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bowman and the ECB’s Pereira.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 08:24

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 41,000 Jobs in December; Annual Pay was Up 4.4%

“Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
emphasis added

This was below the consensus forecast of 50,000 jobs added. The BLS will report on Friday, and the consensus is for 55,000 jobs added.

MSCI Will Not Exclude Bitcoin Treasury Companies Like Michael Saylor's Strategy From Global Indexes

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

In a major development for Bitcoin-focused corporations and the broader digital asset ecosystem, global index provider MSCI has concluded its review of digital asset treasury companies (DATCOs) and decided against excluding them from its flagship indexes.

MSCI said the current treatment of affected companies will remain unchanged for now, meaning DATCOs already included in MSCI indexes will stay included as long as they continue to meet existing eligibility requirements. 

The index provider acknowledged feedback from institutional investors expressing concern that some digital asset treasury companies resemble investment funds, which are typically excluded from its indexes. 

At the same time, MSCI said distinguishing between investment-oriented entities and operating companies that hold digital assets as part of their core business requires further research and market input. 

As a result, MSCI said it plans to launch a broader consultation on the treatment of non-operating companies, while deferring any exclusions, additions, or size-related changes for DATCOs in the interim, according to the company announcement. 

The move reverses fears that have swirled in financial and crypto markets for months that firms — like Strategy — holding a majority of their assets in Bitcoin and other digital assets could be stripped from widely tracked global equity benchmarks like the MSCI All Country World and Emerging Markets indexes.

The proposal, first announced by MSCI late last year, would have effectively classified DATCOs — public companies with greater than 50 % of assets in digital assets — as fund-like entities rather than operating companies, and thus ineligible for inclusion in its core indices. 

That framework had ignited fierce criticism from industry players and advocates.

Strategy and bitcoin industry pushback against MSCI

Strategy - the largest publicly traded Bitcoin treasury company - and other DATCOs had been at the center of the debate. 

Strategy formally urged MSCI to scrap the proposal, arguing that excluding firms based on asset composition alone would be “misguided,” “arbitrary,” and could destabilize index neutrality. 

In an open letter to the MSCI Equity Index Committee, Strategy stressed that DATCOs are operating companies, not passive funds, and should not be judged solely on balance sheet Bitcoin holdings.

Industry coalitions such as Bitcoin For Corporations also mobilized support, framing the move as discriminatory and warning that exclusion could trigger billions in passive outflows and broader market dislocations.

Analysts had projected potential capital flight of up to $2.8 billion from Strategy alone if MSCI followed through with exclusion, with broader estimates of forced selloffs across crypto treasuries ranging much higher. 

The decision ends that uncertainty. It preserves the status of DATCOs within MSCI’s suite of indexes and avoids triggering index-linked passive selling that had loomed as a structural market risk.

Market reaction was swift: shares of digital asset heavyweights including Strategy saw immediate relief buying.

Shares of MSTR jumped over 7% after the news broke in after hours trading. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 08:05

From the MBA: MMortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 9.7 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 2, 2026. The results include an adjustment for the holidays.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 9.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from two weeks earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 28 percent compared with two weeks ago. The holiday adjusted Refinance Index decreased 14 percent from two weeks ago and was 133 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted Refinance Index decreased 31 percent from two weeks ago and was 108 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent from two weeks earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 23 percent compared with two weeks ago and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates started the New Year with a decline to 6.25 percent, the lowest level since September 2024. Refinance applications were up 7 percent for the week but were at a slower pace than in the weeks leading up to the holidays,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “FHA refinance applications saw a 19 percent increase, although that was a partial rebound from a drop the week before. MBA continues to expect mortgage rates to stay around current levels, with spells of refinance opportunities in the weeks when rates move lower.”

Added Kan, “Purchase applications were 10 percent higher than the same week a year ago but were down over the week following decreases in conventional and FHA applications. The average loan size was $408,700, the smallest in a year, driven by lower average loan sizes across both conventional and government loan types.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.25 percent from 6.32 percent, with points decreasing to 0.57 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 10% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but solidly above the lows of 2023 and above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined, but is down from the recent peak in September as rates moved sideways.

What GAO Found Since 2015, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has issued nine rules (regulations) that establish a framework for preventing foodborne illness under the FDA Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) enacted in 2011. Separately, FDA has completed most but not all requirements that GAO identified in the law. The nine rules are significant because they help clarify the specific actions that industry must take at different points in the global supply chain to prevent contamination of human and animal food. For example, one rule sets standards for businesses that grow, harvest, pack, or hold fruits and vegetables. Another rule addresses hazards that could cause illness, death, or economic disruption of the U.S. food supply. In addition to issuing the rules, FDA has completed 41 of 46 requirements GAO identified in FSMA. For example, FDA has issued guides that are intended to describe in plain language what businesses need to do to comply with rules, and conducted various studies FSMA required. The requirements FDA has not completed are to issue guidance on hazard analysis and preventive controls for human food; issue guidance to protect against the intentional adulteration, or tampering, of food; report on the progress of implementing a national food emergency response laboratory network; publish updated good agricultural practices for fruits and vegetables; and establish a system to improve FDA’s capacity to track and trace food that is in the U.S. FDA officials cited competing priorities and an October 2024 agency reorganization as reasons for not fully completing these requirements. In March 2025, FDA officials told GAO they intend to establish the system FSMA requires to help track and trace food by July 2028. However, they did not provide specific time frames for completing the other requirements. Doing so, and then taking action to complete them, would help ensure that industry and others have the information they need to effectively implement FSMA’s preventive framework. FDA’s efforts to assess how the nine rules are helping to prevent foodborne illness have largely focused on monitoring industry compliance with three rules. This includes overseeing hazards that could affect food safety. However, FDA has not developed a performance management process to guide the agency’s efforts to assess the results of the nine rules. Key practices for federal performance management emphasize the need for agencies to define what they are trying to achieve, collect relevant information, and use that information to assess how well they are performing and identify how they could improve. FDA officials said the agency prioritized implementing the rules over assessing the results. But developing a performance management process would better position FDA to assess the results of the rules, with the ultimate goal of helping prevent foodborne illness. Why GAO Did This Study Each year, foodborne illnesses sicken millions of Americans and cause thousands of deaths. In 2011, Congress enacted FSMA, which shifted the focus of FDA’s food safety program from reacting to, to preventing those illnesses. FDA helps ensure the safety of 80 percent of the U.S. food supply, including fruits and vegetables, processed foods, dairy products, and most seafood. GAO was asked to review FDA’s efforts to implement FSMA’s preventive framework. This report examines the extent to which FDA has (1) issued rules and completed requirements included in selected sections of FSMA and (2) assessed how the rules are contributing to preventing foodborne illness. GAO focused on sections of FSMA that provide a foundation for creating a modern, risk-based framework for food safety. GAO compared FDA’s efforts with requirements in FSMA and key practices for federal performance management, which GAO developed based on federal laws, guidance, and past GAO work. GAO also interviewed agency officials and 17 selected stakeholders, representing industry associations, consumer advocacy groups, and state and local regulators.

Perhaps We Should Actually Be Focusing On Fixing America

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

After years of heading in the wrong direction, nobody can deny that the United States is facing overwhelming problems. So why don’t we focus on fixing those problems first? The truth is that we can’t do everything because our resources are very limited. U.S. households are more than 18 trillion dollars in debt, and the federal government is more than 38 trillion dollars in debt.

Even though we have literally stolen trillions upon trillions of dollars from future generations, our major cities are rapidly decaying, our infrastructure is crumbling, corruption is rampant, the middle class is shrinking, most of the population is struggling to even afford the basics each month, mass layoffs are happening all over the nation, our streets are teeming with hordes of drug addicts and homeless people, large numbers of Americans are selling images of themselves online just to make ends meet, and millions of others are living in their vehicles.

So why don’t we use what limited resources we have to fix our own problems?

If you don’t understand the point that I am trying to make, just go take a stroll through downtown Seattle.

The new mayor has decided that it will be her policy to allow people to openly do drugs in the streets…

Seattle’s new ultra-woke mayor has triggered chaos by ordering police not to arrest people doing drugs on the streets of the city plagued by crime and homelessness.

Democratic socialist Katie Wilson, 43, was sworn in as the city’s 58th mayor on Friday.

The progressive politician who co-founded the Transit Riders Union has already taken steps that concerned residents and law enforcement officials say will destroy Seattle.

The president of the Seattle Police Officers Guild, Mike Solan, is warning that this will make the lawlessness in the streets of Seattle even worse…

‘We’ve all seen how our streets can be filled with death, decay, blight and crime when ideology like this infects our city, Solan continued in his statement.

‘Now with this resurrected insane direction, death, destruction and more human suffering will be supercharged.’

Lawmakers and residents have reacted to this news in horror, as the city already has a raging homelessness epidemic that they believe this lax drug policy will only amplify.

Once upon a time, Seattle was one of the most beautiful cities on the entire planet.

So what in the world happened?

Of course it isn’t just Seattle that has been transformed into a crime-ridden, drug-infested hellhole.

All over the nation, chaos reigns in the streets of major American cities.

In fact, last night a “hammer-wielding maniac” destroyed a bunch of windows at the Cincinnati home of Vice President J.D. Vance…

A hammer-wielding maniac who smashed four windows at JD Vance’s Cincinnati home has been arrested by the Secret Service after an overnight break-in.

William DeFoor, 26, was charged early Monday morning with one count each of obstructing official business, criminal damaging or endangering, criminal trespass and vandalism.

Secret Service agents heard a loud noise at the home around midnight and spotted DeFoor running from the home, which is the secondary residence for Vance, his wife Usha and their three young children, who were out of town at the time.

Meanwhile, lawlessness also continues to run rampant in high places all over the country.

So what is being done about it?

After all this time, how many corrupt members of past administrations have been arrested and put in prison?

After all this time, how many corrupt corporate executives have been arrested and put in prison?

After all this time, how many of Jeffrey Epstein’s associates that also sexually abused young girls have been arrested and put in prison?

How can we tell the rest of the world how they should be doing things when we can’t even get our own house in order?

We have been getting hit by crisis after crisis, and economic conditions are steadily deteriorating.

In fact, we just learned that U.S. manufacturing activity has contracted for a 10th consecutive month…

US manufacturing activity contracted for a 10th straight month in December, a survey indicated Monday, pointing to a continued drag in sentiment from tariffs and trade policy uncertainty.

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index fell to 47.9 from November’s 48.2 reading, the lowest of 2025 despite modest improvements in employment and some other categories.

Our artificially-inflated stock market continues to hover near record highs, but at the same time the number of large corporations that are going bankrupt just continues to rise…

Between January and November 2025, at least 717 companies filed for Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy, according to data from S&P reviewed by The Washington Post.

That marks a 14% jump compared to the same period in 2024, and the most filings seen since 2010, the tail end of the Great Recession.

According to the Daily Mail, we are also seeing a very alarming surge in bankruptcies among small businesses too…

A frightening recession indicator is flashing red — and Americans can see it all over Main Street.

Experts told the Daily Mail that a sudden surge in bankruptcies and store closures — hitting mom-and-pop shops, small restaurants, and local retailers — could be an early warning sign that the economy is starting to crack.

One expert that was interviewed by the Daily Mail is warning that this surge in bankruptcies is a clear indication that a recession is coming…

‘The little guys are going to start falling first,’ Joe Barsalona, a Delaware-based bankruptcy lawyer at Pashman Stein Walder Hayden, said.

‘A recession is coming. I agree with economists that the increase in small business bankruptcies is a canary in a coal mine.’

Of course many would argue that a recession is already here.

In recent months, I have written a lot about the mass layoffs that have been occurring all over the country.

Well, now Newsweek is reporting that over 100 companies have filed WARN notices for mass layoffs that will be taking place in January…

More than 100 companies have filed WARN notices indicating plans to lay off workers in January 2026, according to WARNTracker.com. The following companies have filed a notice.

I tried to warn my readers that a tsunami of layoffs was coming.

Now it is here.

The following is the full list of 119 companies that have filed WARN notices for this month…

• AARP
• AbbVie
• Adams County Public Hospital
• AeroFarms1526 Cane Creek
• Amazon
• Amentum
• American Signature, Inc.
• Apogee Architectural Metals
• Archer Daniels Midland Company
• Atkore Plastics Southeast
• Augusta Sportswear, Inc.
• Bechtel National Inc.
• Best Dressed Chicken, Inc.
• Blue Plate Oysterette LLC
• Blue Shield of California
• Bond 45 National Harbor Restaurant
• Braga Fresh Foods, LLC
• Building Materials Manufacturing LLC
• BWW Law Group, LLC
• Catalent, Maryland, Inc.
• Charles River Laboratories
• Clari Inc.
• CNO Financial Group
• Colonial Savings, F.A.
• ColWyo Coal Company LP
• CommUnify
• Consolidated Hospitality Supplies
• Corteva
• CoStar Group
• Couchbase, Inc.
• CRST Expedited, Inc.
• Dental Benefit Management, Inc.
• Dillard’s Inc.
• Dometic Corporation
• DRT, LLC
• DSV Air & Sea Inc.
• enDevelopment Logistics, LLC
• FedEx
• FreshRealm
• Fresno Economic Opportunities Commission
• Galleher LLC
• General Motors
• Giesecke + Devrient ePayments America Inc
• Gilead Sciences
• Grand Lux Café, LLC
• Great Floors
• H&M Fashion USA, Inc.
• HD Supply
• Heibar Installations Inc.
• Henkel Corporation
• HRL Laboratories
• Hudson
• Huntington National Bank
• Illumina
• ImmunityBio
• Inline Plastics
• Institute of International Education
• International Paper
• Invincible Boat Company
• Kloeckner Meals
• Lakeshore Learning Materials, LLC
• Louis Vuitton USA Inc.
• Lumileds
• Maritime Applied Physics Corporation
• Marshalls of CA, LLC
• Mattel
• McDonald’s
• MDWise
• Meteorcomm LLC
• Mettler-Toledo Rainin, LLC
• Michigan Sugar Company
• Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey
• Nationstar Mortgage, LLC
• NIKE Retail Services, Inc.
• Nordstrom Portland Rack
• Ojai Valley Inn
• Palo Verde Hospital
• Panasonic Well LLC
• Peraton’s Environmental Integration Services III
• Post Consumer Brands, LLC
• Presbyterian Home for Central New York, Inc.
• Providence Health & Services
• Rad Power Bikes, Inc.
• RATP Dev and Midtown Group
• Raytheon Technologies
• Rebel Restaurants, Inc.
• Red Run Corporation T/A Food Depot
• Regional Medical Center of Central Alabama
• Retail Services WIS Corporation
• Revity, Inc.
• Roads Express, LLC
• Saddle Creek Logistics Service
• SC Industrial Holdings, LLC
• SDH Education West, LLC
• SDH Service East, LLC
• Shell Recharge Solutions
• SLO Brewing Co. LLC
• Smokin Bear LLC
• Smurfit Westrock
• Sodexo
• Spirit Airlines, LLC.
• Synopsys, Inc.
• Takeda Development Center Americas Inc.
• Terzo Enterprises Incorporated
• The Cheesecake Factory
• The French Gourmet, Inc.
• The Taubman Company
• TJX Companies, Inc.
• TransAlta
• United Supermarkets
• Van Law Food Products, Inc.
• Verizon
• Virginia Mason Franciscan
• Warner Music Group
• Wells Fargo
• West Fraser, Inc.
• White Coffee Corporation
• WIS International
• WWL Vehicle Services America, Inc.

That is quite a long list, isn’t it?

The American people are not stupid.

They can see what is happening, and one recent survey found that 52 percent of U.S. adults actually believe that a recession has already started…

According to the ARG data, 52% of Americans believe the economy is already in a recession, and 64% say it’s getting worse.

These numbers suggest that many Americans are feeling the squeeze, even if official metrics don’t yet reflect a recession.

Only 11% think the economy is improving. Just 22% rate it as excellent, very good, or good, while 73% call it bad, very bad, or terrible, showing a clear gap between public sentiment and political narratives about economic strength.

Looking ahead, 60% believe the national economy will be worse a year from now, and just 16% say it will be better.

Yes, things are certainly bad now.

But they are not even worth comparing to what is further down the road.

So why don’t we use our limited resources to address the historic challenges that we are facing in our own nation?

If we love this country, we should try to fix it.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 23:25