The Market Risk In 2026 If Growth Projections Fail

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

There is a rising market risk in 2026 that is largely overlooked as we wrap up this year. As discussed in the “Fed’s Soft Landing Narrative,” optimism about 2026 is running high.

Currently, investors are pricing in strong economic growth, robust earnings, and a smooth path of disinflation. Notably, Wall Street estimates suggest a significant acceleration in corporate profits, particularly among cyclical stocks and small- to mid-cap sectors. To wit:

“Wall Street currently expects the bottom 493 stocks to contribute more to earnings in 2026 than they have in the past 3 years. This is notable in that, over the past three years, the average growth rate for the bottom 493 stocks was less than 3%. Yet over the next 2 years, that earnings growth is expected to average above 11%.”

“Furthermore, the outlook is even more exuberant for the most economically sensitive stocks. Small and mid-cap companies struggled to produce earnings growth during the previous three years of robust economic growth, driven by monetary and fiscal stimulus. However, next year, even if the Fed’s soft landing narrative is valid, they are expected to see a surge in earnings growth rates of nearly 60%.”

There is nothing wrong with having an optimistic outlook when it comes to investing; however, “outlooks can change rapidly,” which is a significant market risk, particularly when expectations and valuations are elevated.

Notably, these forecasts rest on an assumption that the economy will not only avoid recession but reaccelerate in the face of waning inflation. As noted, equity markets have responded by pushing valuations higher across major indexes, with price-to-earnings ratios well above historical medians. Simultaneously, investors have rewarded narratives built on the idea of a soft landing and a return to pre-pandemic trends.

However, this narrative appears to overlook the trends in recent economic data. Inflation expectations have moderated, not because of increased demand, but due to weaker consumption and cooling labor dynamics. As recent economic data indicate, disinflation has accompanied slower GDP growth and a decline in personal consumption momentum. If the economy were indeed set to reaccelerate, these trends should be increasing rather than returning to historical averages.

The soft landing thesis posits a benign cycle in which inflation declines, growth remains stable, and earnings increase. Yet, that outcome would be historically rare. When inflation falls this quickly, it typically reflects a slowdown in demand rather than policy success. Additionally, the strong relationship between economic growth and earnings should not be dismissed. That disconnect exposes investors to market risk if growth does not materialize as expected and valuations are reconsidered.

With analysts expecting strong revenue growth and margin expansion despite rising input costs, global uncertainty, and declining employment, a market priced for perfection leaves little room for earnings misses or growth shocks. If those optimistic assumptions fail, market risk could rise abruptly.

Let’s dig in.

Structural Headwinds

As noted above, earnings growth is fundamentally tied to economic growth. When demand exceeds supply, companies expand output, raise prices, and increase profits. As discussed recently, this is why, without inflation, there can not be economic growth, increasing wages, and an improving standard of living. In other words, for there to be stronger economic growth and rising prosperity, prices must increase over time. Such is why the Fed targets a 2% inflation rate, thereby supporting 2% economic growth and stable employment levels.

However, the employment data over the last year doesn’t tell a story of substantial employment, rising wages, or a trend suggesting a more robust economic outlook. Instead, the latest data confirmed a deceleration in economic activity, as full-time employment (as a percentage of the population) declined.

The importance of full-time employment should not be readily dismissed. Full-time employment pays higher wages, provides family benefits, and allows for an expansion of consumption. The decline in full-time employment currently is normally associated with recessions rather than expansions. Economic growth, inflation, and personal consumption are trending lower, given that employment, particularly full-time employment, supports economic supply and demand.

Furthermore, economic growth relies heavily on consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP. For that consumption to persist or grow, consumers must have rising incomes, which come from employment and wage growth. Without job creation or real wage increases, consumption growth stagnates, and the earnings narrative breaks down. As shown, when economic growth declines, so do earnings growth rates.

Recent employment data show cracks in this cycle. While headline job numbers suggest continued hiring, the quality and composition of those jobs are weakening. Today we see part-time workers filling full-time positions, often with lower pay and fewer benefits. Labor force participation remains below pre-pandemic levels, and many prime-age workers are not returning. Most notably, the negative revision of every monthly employment report in 2025 further undermines the “strong economy” narrative.

Even where wages are rising nominally, inflation-adjusted wages tell a different story. Real wage growth has been flat or negative in several key sectors. As housing, energy, and service prices remain high, the squeeze of disposable income increases. As such, consumers compensate by drawing down savings or using credit, both of which are unsustainable long-term strategies.

The market risk in 2026, is that for corporate earnings to accelerate and meet Wall Street’s expecations, the consumer must be healthy. That means rising real wages and broad-based job creation. Without those pillars, top-line revenue growth slows, and margin pressures increase. Analysts projecting double-digit earnings growth into 2026 are assuming a demand-driven economy without the income growth needed to support it. That assumption is increasingly fragile. Without real economic growth, earnings become a product of financial engineering or cost-cutting, not organic expansion. Markets are pricing in a demand surge that the employment data do not confirm.

If this disconnect persists, Wall Street will revise earnings expectations lower.

Valuation Fragility

That last sentence is the most crucial. With valuations near cycle highs, (the S&P 500 trades at over 22x times forward earnings, which is well above its long-term average), such assume strong earnings growth and low discount rates. Yet both assumptions are vulnerable. If economic growth undershoots, earnings revisions will follow. Historically, earnings have tended to lag behind the economic cycle. As consumption softens, revenue growth stalls. Margins then compress, especially for companies with high labor or financing costs, and with narrow market breadth and concentration in mega-cap names, the market risk is a sudden repricing of those expectations.

Credit risk premiums remain compressed across all asset classes, from high-yield to investment-grade, which reflects a belief in Fed control and continued monetary easing. If those beliefs are shaken, volatility will return. Market participants are not expecting a scenario where all risk assets decline simultaneously, including stocks, crypto, precious metals, and international markets.

Implications for Investors

The market risk for investors is not a 2008-style collapse. However, a far more likely scenario is a long period of underperformance. That underperformance will likely be a function of earnings disappointment, weak growth, and multiple compression. Market analysts are currently pricing the market for acceleration. But those views may struggle is stagnation, and the “path of least resistance,” shifts from upward momentum to sideways drift or correction.

As such investors should continually monitor and assess the risk they are taking in portfolios.

• Reassess exposure to high-multiple equities and overconcentrated sectors. While technologty drives index performance, valuations are high and if growth expectations are too high, tech earnings will likely fail to meet them. The same applies to consumer discretionary stocks tied to fragile spending.

• Consider a more defensive position, focusing on free cash flow, balance sheet strength, dividends, and pricing power.

• Add bonds to your portfolio to protect prinicpal and create income. Furthermore, in the event of a risk-off rotation, investors will seek the safety of bonds to reduce portfolio risk. Being there before the correction occurs can be beneficial to outcomes.

• Liquidity should always be a priority. If risk aversion returns, liquidity conditions can tighten quickly. Investors consider a scenario where risk assets (stocks, commodities, metals, and cryptocurrencies) decline sharply as risk resets

A prudent approach is to reduce exposure to narrative-driven assets and increase allocations to quality. Investors should favor sectors with consistent earnings, low leverage, and stable dividends. Cash remains underappreciated as a strategic tool, and with real yields positive and volatility likely to rise, liquidity is a source of optionality.

The next two years will test the soft landing thesis. If growth falls short, earnings disappoint, or inflation returns, markets will face a reset. That reset may not be dramatic, but it will be painful for those overexposed to the current consensus.

The best defense is valuation discipline, risk awareness, and a willingness to question the prevailing narrative.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 11:40

Nigerians Applaud Trump's Military Strikes On Islamic Terrorists

Trump's military strikes against Islamic terror groups in Nigeria have been met with overall applause by Nigerian citizens and migrants residing in the US.  Authorities say the groups have links to jihadist networks in Mali and Niger and their members have settled in border communities, recruiting young people and imposing brutal controls.

Associated Muslim militants were responsible for numerous attacks on Christian communities and schools in the country in early 2025, including the coordinated massacre of 280 Christian farmers in the village of Yelwata; many victims burned alive or hacked to death. It was one of the worst single incidents of Christian slaughter in the past decade.

In a national statement, Nigeria's information ministry said "precision strike operations" had been carried with the "explicit approval" of President Bola Tinubu and with "the full involvement of the armed forces of Nigeria".  Trump brought global exposure to the attacks on Christians in the region, accusing the Nigerian government of apathy in the face of genocide. 

The event is being framed as a "joint operation" between Nigeria and the US, however, it is likely that international attention forced the hand of the current regime to cooperate with US military operations.  Nothing would have been done about the militants had Trump not stepped in.

Many Christian Nigerians abroad and migrants in the US are optimistic about the country's prospects for peace and have applauded the strikes.  Nigeria is 56% Muslim and 43% Christian.  The northern provinces, controlled by Muslims, have instituted Sharia Law despite the country having a "secular constitution."  This has created religious tensions across the nation and helped to enable escalating Islamic militant attacks. 

      

It's good to see at least one group of third world migrants showing appreciation for US efforts.  

The establishment media in the west, however, is not happy about Trump's efforts in Africa, and has been working diligently to deny that the conflict is driven by religious motives.  Though they are forced to admit that the strikes have had a positive effect on Nigeria's Christian population, they continue to frame the killings of villagers as "land disputes" (take note of the seemingly scripted propaganda planted in the AP report below).

The motives of the media are obvious; third world immigration is an integral part of the multicultural agenda to destabilize the west and admitting that Islamic migrants might be a security hazard hurts that agenda.  They could not be more transparent, given the fact that journalists immediately tried to make the issue about immigration once news of the strikes hit the new feeds.

Western journalists have accused Trump of hypocrisy because of his block on immigration from a number of African nations including Nigeria.  They argue that Trump does not really want to help Christians because he won't allow Nigerians to come to the US to escape the sectarian violence.

However, simply claiming to be Christian is not enough to gain US citizenship.  Trump's position is clear - Third world populations need to fix their own countries rather than running to the US.  Despite the socialist "melting pot" narrative, America has never been obligated to take on the refugees of the world.  The Trump Administration's intervention in Nigeria only shows that the President is serious about those people staying where they are so they can repair or replace their broken government.   

In July as Trump ramped up criticism of the Nigerian government's handling of the situation, NPR attempted to paint the attacks as a "land dispute" over access to cattle grazing areas. They repeated the Nigerian Foreign Ministry's claims that the events had "nothing to do with religion."  In almost every case of Christians being hunted by Muslim militants, the media is on the side of the governments that allow the attacks to happen.   

A number of western media platforms dismiss or marginalize the attacks on Christian villages in Nigeria, claiming that "most victims are Muslims."  What they don't mention is that most Muslim "victims" are largely rival militants fighting for a superior position.  Christians have not involved themselves in the power struggle, yet, they are specifically targeted for extermination.  

Reports from the International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (Intersociety) state that over 7,000 Christians were killed in Nigeria in the first 220 days of 2025.  The bottom line is, Christians are disproportionately targeted by Islamic violence in Africa and African governments are content to let it happen.  

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 11:20

Waste Of The Day: Austin Funds Allegedly Sent To Fake Companies

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: A then-employee at the City of Austin’s energy utility allegedly paid $980,000 in taxpayer funds to fictional companies with bank accounts belonging to his family members, according to a new report from the city auditor.

Key facts: Mark Ybarra was given a city credit card from 2018 to 2023 to hire repair companies for city buildings. He used it to pay 30 different vendors, but the city auditor could only verify that eight of them were real companies, according to the report. 

Ten of the companies reportedly had the same address, which the city auditor said is the home of one of Ybarra’s relatives. The businesses received $400,000 from the city. One of them had Ybarra’s email address listed as its contact information, according to the report.

The remaining $580,000 went to businesses that “appeared to be fake,” many of which were missing basic information like an address and phone number, according to the report. 

Ybarra resigned in October 2023 after Austin Energy officials asked questions about the invoices, according to the report. He was indicted for felony theft this September. 

Records obtained by Open the Books show Ybarra earned $534,797 in taxpayer-funded salary during the six years he was allegedly defrauding the city.

The city auditor claimed the alleged fraud went undetected because of Austin Energy’s “inefficient purchasing controls.” Most of his purchases were approved by former Facility Service Supervisor Sammy Ramirez, who never raised questions about the missing addresses and phone numbers on Ybarra’s invoices, according to the report.

Mark Ybarra’s wife, Ambrosia Ybarra, worked at the city's Watershed Protection Department. She was questioned by the city auditor about her husband’s invoices but allegedly left the interview before it was over, according to the report. She resigned this November.

Ambrosia Ybarra made $70,174 in 2024. Ramirez made $87,262 in 2022, his last year of employment, but made as much as $104,698 in 2021.

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world’s largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com. 

Summary: Austin’s scandal is yet another reminder that the government agencies spending huge amounts of money relative to the population of the areas they serve are often the ones most vulnerable to mistakes and fraud. 

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 11:00

Abrego Garcia Free To Make TikTok Videos While DHS Kept Silent Under Gag Order

Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the illegal immigrant, alleged MS-13 gang member, and suspected human smuggler, is living freely in Maryland, posting TikTok videos for the world to see. At the same time, federal authorities sit muzzled under a judicial gag order. 

The Salvadoran national, released from Immigration and Customs Enforcement custody in early December, created a new TikTok account and has posted at least two Spanish-language videos showing him lip-syncing to songs in what appears to be a suburban neighborhood. One video features him singing along to a track by Danny Berrios, an American singer known for Spanish Christian music, and has garnered nearly half a million views.

MS-13 terrorist Kilmar Abrego Garcia was released by a rogue judge and is now making TikToks.
pic.twitter.com/MlJwkRAmLH

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) December 27, 2025

U.S. District Judge Waverly Crenshaw, appointed to the Tennessee federal bench by President Barack Obama, issued a gag order in October, ordering federal prosecutors to warn Department of Justice and DHS employees against making any statements he deemed prejudicial about Abrego Garcia. 

The order restricted federal officials from publicly using terms such as "gangbanger," "serial wife beater," or "human trafficker" to describe him while the case proceeds. Crenshaw recently canceled the criminal trial and scheduled a hearing for January 28, 2026 to determine whether the prosecution for human smuggling was vindictive.

Tricia McLaughlin, DHS Assistant Secretary, expressed frustration on X on Saturday over the absurdity of the situation.

"So we, at [the Department of Homeland Security] are under gag order by an activist judge and Kilmar Abrego Garcia is making TikToks," McLaughlin said.

"American justice ceases to function when its arbiters silence law enforcement and give megaphones to those who oppose our legal system," she added.

So we, at @DHSgov, are under gag order by an activist judge and Kilmar Abrego Garcia is making TikToks.

American justice ceases to function when its arbiters silence law enforcement and give megaphones to those who oppose our legal system. https://t.co/11pNrHQUK6

— Tricia McLaughlin (@TriciaOhio) December 27, 2025

On December 11, 2025, U.S. District Court Judge Paula Xinis, another Obama appointee, ordered the immediate release of Abrego Garcia from ICE custody. Xinis cited the absence of a final removal order against him and stated that his removal could not be regarded as reasonably foreseeable, imminent, or in accordance with due process. "Since Abrego Garcia's improper [deportation] to El Salvador, he has been detained, again without lawful authority," Xinis wrote. She subsequently extended her temporary restraining order, which keeps Abrego Garcia out of federal custody through the Christmas holiday period.

In 2019, police in Maryland identified Abrego Garcia in official documents as affiliated with MS-13, one of the most violent street gangs in the world. Abrego Garcia was arrested in March 2019 at a Home Depot parking lot in Hyattsville, Maryland, where officers deemed him a member of MS-13 based on his clothing and other factors, including tattoos linking him to the gang. 

This is the hand of the man that the Democrats feel should be brought back to the United States, because he is such “a fine and innocent person.” They said he is not a member of MS-13, even though he’s got MS-13 tattooed onto his knuckles, and two Highly Respected Courts found… pic.twitter.com/31sNr2k1SK

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 18, 2025

Court records also show that Abrego Garcia's wife, Jennifer Vasquez, filed temporary protective orders against him in August 2020 and May 2021. In the 2020 order, she said he verbally abused, kicked, slapped, and shoved her, took her phone, and locked her out of the house with her three kids inside. In the 2021 petition, she alleged he punched and scratched her, leaving her bleeding, and ripped off her shirt.

In 2022, during a Tennessee traffic stop, police caught Abrego Garcia driving a vehicle with eight passengers. Officers observed that none of the passengers had any luggage and that each gave Abrego Garcia's address as their own, and the car he was driving belonged to a known smuggler.

Earlier this year, federal prosecutors indicted Abrego Garcia on smuggling-related counts. The grand jury indictment alleges that while illegally in the U.S., Abrego Garcia made more than 100 trips across the country smuggling illegal migrants, and that he participated in a years-long human smuggling operation from 2016 to 2025. 

The indictment alleges that from about 2016 to 2025, Abrego Garcia and others conspired to bring migrants illegally to the United States from Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Ecuador and elsewhere, through Mexico and across the Texas-Mexico border.

Abrego Garcia and a co-conspirator “ordinarily picked up the undocumented aliens in Houston, Texas area” after they had crossed the border. The pair then allegedly would transport “the undocumented aliens from Texas to other parts of the United States to further the aliens’ unlawful presence in the United States,” the indictment said.

In the indictment, the government said Abrego Garcia and six other uncharged and unnamed co-conspirators communicated using cellphones and social media to unlawfully transport the undocumented immigrants.

They allege that Abrego Garcia would hold the cellphones of those he was transporting within the U.S. and would return them at the end of their trip, “they did this to ensure the undocumented aliens could not and would not contact anyone else during the trip,” the government said in the indictment.

Abrego Garcia has been locked in a legal battle with the Trump administration since his March 2025 deportation to El Salvador and subsequent return to the United States. Since his return in June, the government has pushed to deport him to various African countries, including Liberia, Uganda, Eswatini, and Ghana. His attorneys say he would accept deportation to Costa Rica, which has already guaranteed he could live there freely, but the government has made no apparent effort to pursue that option. Prosecutors continue to seek his permanent removal despite his release from ICE custody.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 10:40

Oh Crap: Over-The-Counter Medicines, Other Items Recalled Over Feces Contamination

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) late last week announced that a distributor is recalling its FDA-regulated products because of the presence of bird and rodent feces at a Minneapolis facility.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration in White Oak, Md., on June 5, 2023. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Minneapolis-based Gold Star Distribution Inc. said on Dec. 26 that it’s recalling all of its FDA-regulated products including over-the-counter cold and flu medications, dietary supplements, pet foods, cosmetics, medical devices, and foods that were distributed in locations primarily in Minnesota.

The reason for the action is “potential Salmonella contamination, presence of rodent and avian contamination, and insanitary conditions during the storage process,” the FDA said in a description of the recall.

According to a statement from Gold Star, people who consume or handle the products may become ill because of “adulteration from pests, including rodents, birds and insects.” The FDA found that the company facilities harbored “rodent excreta, rodent urine, and bird droppings in areas where medical devices, drugs, human food, pet food, and cosmetic products were held.”

“These conditions create a significant risk that products held at the facility may have been contaminated with filth and harmful microorganisms,” it said.

No illnesses have been reported so far, according to the FDA notice.

Health authorities say Salmonella infections may cause fever, diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, and stomach pain. Salmonella can sometimes enter the bloodstream, causing more significant illnesses such as endocarditis, arthritis, and arterial infections.

In rare cases, the bacterial infections can be fatal. Young children, older people, and individuals with compromised immune systems are particularly at risk of developing severe illness.

Officials also say that individuals who may be sick with the bacterial infection should call their health care provider right away if they have more severe symptoms, including a fever higher than 102 degrees Fahrenheit in combination with diarrhea, bloody diarrhea, or diarrhea for more than three days without signs of improvement

Other serious symptoms include excessive vomiting or signs of dehydration such as dry mouth, dry throat, less frequent urination, and feeling dizzy or lightheaded when standing. Antibiotics are often used to treat people with severe Salmonella infections, and patients with diarrhea are advised to drink more fluids.

Recall Includes Medication

The recalled products include over-the-counter cold and flu medications, according to the FDA and the company, including some Tylenol, Advil, Benadryl, DayQuil, NyQuil, Excedrin, Alka-Seltzer, and Motrin products.

A number of other products are affected by the recall. A full list of the items can be found on the FDA’s website.

People who have any questions can contact Gold Star at 612-617-9800 or report any adverse reactions to the FDA via its website.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 10:20

From the NAR: NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 3.3% Increase in November

Pending home sales in October increased by 1.9% from the prior month and fell 0.4% year over year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales Report. ...

Month-Over-Month
3.3% increase in pending home sales
Gains in all four regions

Year Over Year
2.6% increase in pending home sales
Gains in all four regions
emphasis added

Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in December and January.

Ilhan Omar's Husband's Venture Capital Firm Removes Names From Website Under Scrutiny

Authored by Bryan Jung via PJMedia.com,

A venture capital firm run by Rep. Ilhan Omar’s (D-Minn.) husband quietly scrubbed important names from its website, as the Minnesota congresswoman faces mounting questions on her sudden wealth amid a multi-billion Somali welfare fraud scheme in her district.

Rose Lake Capital, the $60 million dollar firm managed by Omar’s husband, political consultant Tim Mynett, deleted key officers from its website, including former Obama Administration officials, reported the New York Post in an exclusive.

The news comes as Somali communities across multiple states are currently facing scrutiny over dozens of similarly fraudulent schemes that have seen billions of taxpayer dollars flowing overseas, with some even going to jihadist terrorist groups in Somalia.

Nine billion dollars from Minnesota’s social services programs were illegally pocketed via scams mostly perpetrated by local members of the Somali community in Omar's congressional district, according to an investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice.

The Minnesota congresswoman, a member of the "the Squad" who was born in Somalia, is an outspoken figure on the far-left wing of the House Democratic caucus

Omar suspiciously went from holding tens of thousands in debt to earning tens of millions in a single year, not long after taking office in 2019 on a congressperson's annual salary of $174,000, the Washington Free Beacon reported in September. 

Her critics have recently pointed to the fact that she was the prime mover in introducing the federal legislation that enabled what the DOJ has called the largest fraud committed in the United States during the pandemic.

Minnesota’s Democrat governor and failed vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz is continuing to face criticism for his part in the mismanagement and alleged complicity in the debacle, as calls for federal charges against him grow louder.

The Somalia-born Omar introduced in 2020 the MEALS Act, which severely weakened oversight of government-sponsored children’s meals programs during the pandemic.

This allowed criminals to fraudulently claim that they served millions of meals without verification, while pocketing millions of dollars in government subsidies, say critics.

The $9 billion stolen is nearly equivalent to the entire economy of Somalia, whose GDP was under $12 billion last year, according to the World Bank.

The total losses accounts for roughly half of the $18 billion in total federal funds provided to the Minnesota-run services since 2018, say federal prosecutors.

Meanwhile, while one of the largest government subsidies frauds in American history was underway, Mynett launched Rose Lake Capital, his venture capital management firm, in 2022.

Mynett's firm saw its reported value skyrocket from less than $1,000 in 2023, to between $5 million and $25 million by the end of the year, despite its address remaining a WeWork office in Washington, D.C., according to its LinkedIn page.

Rose Lake Capital apparently was able to amass significant assets under management through its “deep global networks built from on-the-ground work in more than 80 countries,” an amount which is normally unheard of in the industry.

Her husband's other business, eStCru, was a failed California winery venture that has also faced fraud allegations and, strangely enough, was also listed as operating out of a WeWork office.

Mynett's winery, which was worth between $1 million and $5 million in 2024, agreed to an out-of-court settlement with a former investor in November who accused Omar's husband of swindling him out of $900,000, as he “fraudulently misrepresented … that estCru, LLC was a legitimate company.”

The winery was only worth between $15,000 and $50,000 in Omar’s financial disclosure report in 2022, making its 9,900%  earnings windfall the following year suspect, say critics.

About 90 Minnesotan Somalis have been arrested so far, including at least three suspects with direct ties to Omar, though she has not been charged.

“The magnitude cannot be overstated,” First Assistant U.S. Attorney Joe Thompson told reporters last week.

 “What we see in Minnesota is not a handful of bad actors committing crimes. It’s staggering, industrial-scale fraud," continued Thompson.

One of those charged was Salim Ahmed Said, the co-owner of Safari Restaurant in Minneapolis where Omar held her 2018 congressional victory party. He was convicted in federal court in August of stealing more than $12 million, the DOJ stated on its website.

Said received $12 million in federal payouts to serve 3.9 million meals to hungry children during the 2020 pandemic, but instead spent it on a $2 million mansion in Minneapolis and a $9,000 shopping spree at Nordstrom, said the feds.

President Donald Trump asked on his Truth Social account when the news of the allegations first broke: “Does Ilhan Omar know these people? Are they from her wonderfully managed Home Country of Somalia?”

“Somali gangs are terrorizing the people of that great state, and billions of dollars are missing. Send them back to where they came from,” the president added.

There is even a video on X of Omar praising Said at his restaurant, during the height of his scam, in front of reporters .

“Every day Safari provides 2,300 meals to children and their families,” Omar said in Somali while handing out food in front of the news cameras.

Another friend, Guhaad Hashi Said, who worked on the congresswoman's campaign in 2018 and 2020, also pleaded guilty in August for running a fake food site called Advance Youth Athletic Development, which was supposed to serve 5,000 meals a day to kids, but led to $3.2 million being diverted from the food program and into his pockets.

Omar's campaign received $7,400 in direct donations from the three convicted fraudsters, but the congresswoman who has publicly claimed to represent the interests of the people of Somalia now claims that she returned those donations since the scandal broke.

After federal prosecutors charged eight more suspects, mostly of Somali descent, between September and October for their participation in the subsidies fraud schemes, several names and bios of Rose Lake Capitals’s nine officers and advisors were removed from the firm's website. 

They included lobbyist and former Obama ambassador to Bahrain Adam Ereli; former Sen. Max Baucus, who served as Obama’s ambassador to China; DNC finance chair associate Alex Hoffman; former DNC treasurer William Derrough; and former Amalgamated Bank CEO Keith Mestrich.

Mestrich once boasted that Amalgamated was “the institutional bank of the Democratic Party.”  

None of these officers were charged in the fraud, according to the New York Post, which also noted that the Treasury and Justice Departments were already investigating alleged money laundering by Omar and Mynett.

Upon taking office in 2019, Omar declared a net worth of between negative $25,000 and negative $65,000, with no assets and only carrying student and car debt.

Her personal assets are now between $6 million to $30 million, according to her latest financial disclosure, despite dismissing claims that she is a millionaire as “ridiculous” and “categorically false.” 

“There’s a lot of strange things going on,” Paul Kamenar, counsel to the National Legal and Policy Center, told the New York Post. 

“She was basically broke when she came into office and now she’s worth perhaps up to $30 million.…She needs to come clean on these assets,” said Kamenar.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 09:00

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.9% week-over-week.  
Note that Inventory usually bottoms seasonally in January or February.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 13.1% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 13.5%), and down 6.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 5.7%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory and closed most of that gap, however inventory was still down 6% compared to 2019 at the end of the year.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of December 26th, inventory was at 736 thousand (7-day average), compared to 758 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

One Year In, Trump's Economy Defies The Experts And Outpaces G7

Authored by Daniel Lacalle via The Epoch Times,

One year into Donald Trump’s new presidency, the verdict from the data is clear: the apocalyptic consensus forecasts have failed, and the United States stands as the only major developed economy combining strong growth, controlled inflation, and fiscal consolidation.

The same analysts and institutions that applauded massive stimulus, monetary excess, and regulatory overreach under the previous administration now struggle to explain why the economy they expected to sink into stagflation is instead outperforming all its G7 peers. Furthermore, the U.S. peers that embraced net-zero goals, big government, and high tax policies are now experiencing secular stagnation.

From the ‘Tariff Tantrum’ to a Global Surprise

When Trump announced his new wave of tariffs and trade policies, much of the global consensus rushed to predict a disaster. I called it the “tariff tantrum.” Commentators warned of an inflation surge beyond 2021 levels, 6 to 7 percent Treasury yields, collapsing investment, a recession, and global rejection of U.S. leadership in favor of supposedly more responsible European governments.

Twelve months later, none of those predictions has materialized. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 4.1 percent. The United States is the only G7 economy growing robustly, while nations that intensified hyperregulation, climate restrictions, high taxes, and government spending are stuck in stagnation despite the tailwind of low oil and gas prices.

The “tariff tantrum” never became the structural shock that critics warned of. Tariffs, though debatable, do not cause inflation because they do not add currency units to the economy; uncontrolled public spending and monetary excess do.

Growth, Investment, and a Rare Fiscal Adjustment

The performance of the U.S. economy in 2025 is extraordinary, not only in relative terms but also on its own merits. Real GDP is growing at approximately 3.8 percent, with the Atlanta Fed tracking around 3.5 percent annualized in the third quarter. Private investment is expanding at near double-digit rates. Crucially, this is happening while federal spending is being cut—public expenditure has fallen by about 3 percent over the year, avoiding the use of unproductive federal outlays to mask weak growth.

International institutions have revised their forecasts. The International Monetary Fund, which had projected much weaker performance, now expects U.S. growth of about 2.1 percent in 2026. Major research houses that previously forecast zero or negative growth have adjusted their 2025 outlooks to around 2.5 percent. Some economists now admit they misread the U.S. private sector’s resilience and overestimated the impact of tariffs.

This American expansion is not driven by a wave of debt-fueled political spending, but by private sector recovery, investment, trade, and productivity. Unlike other developed nations that responded to crises with more spending, debt, and regulation, the new U.S. approach is producing better results.

Inflation Under Control

The most surprising divergence from the consensus narrative is inflation. The same Keynesian analysts who saw no inflation risk in 2021—while government spending and the money supply surged—predicted that tariffs would push inflation beyond previous highs. Instead, the consumer price index (CPI) in November stands at about 2.7 percent, below the 3.0 percent expected and far from the predicted 6 to 7 percent spike.

Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is around 2.6 percent, down from late 2024. Over the 12 months to November, the all-items index rose by 2.7 percent, down from 3.0 percent the previous year. Independent estimates suggest actual inflation may be closer to 2.5 percent.

The lesson is clear: tariffs did not cause the global inflation spike; the combination of unchecked fiscal expansion and central banks monetizing deficits did. The U.S. experience in 2025 proves this again.

Deficit, Debt, and the Politics of Discipline

While many advanced economies face ballooning deficits and rising debt, the United States has achieved a rare combination of growth and fiscal consolidation. The federal deficit has declined by about 22 percent, from $2.07 trillion in November 2024 to approximately $1.6 trillion a year later. This is due to increased tax and trade revenues and spending cuts. As a share of GDP, the deficit dropped from 7.1 percent to an estimated 5.9 percent.

This is notable, given that 97 percent of the 2025 budget had already been allocated when the Trump administration took office. Trump has also enacted the largest tax cut in decades, reducing the tax wedge on families to below 30 percent, according to the Tax Foundation.

Despite inheriting a nearly fully committed budget, the administration cut federal outlays by 5.6 percent in the first quarter and 5.3 percent in the second. Public spending is down 3.1 percent for the first half of the year. An 8 percent reduction in federal spending is planned for 2026.

Federal debt, which stood at $36.22 trillion in January, has stabilized and ticked slightly down to $36.21 trillion. The debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen from roughly 122 percent to 120 percent.

Labor Market: Native Workers Improve as Govt and Immigration Shrink

The November employment report shows the best month for native private-sector employment since 2015. Real wages are up 0.8 percent year over year, with middle- and lower-income workers gaining about 1.4 percent. Net real wages after taxes are rising at the fastest pace in years.

Unemployment stands at 4.6 percent, lower than in Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and the Eurozone.

Native employment has grown from 130.6 million in November 2024 to 133.3 million—an increase of 2.63 million jobs. Over the same period, foreign employment has declined by 21,000, and public-sector employment has dropped by 188,000.

Unlike Canada and Europe, where employment gains often involve subsidized public-sector jobs, the United States is achieving stronger private-sector gains through deregulation, tax cuts, and restrained public payrolls.

Trade Deals Have Been a Success

Rather than destroying America’s global trade position, Trump’s approach has reduced the trade deficit from $79.8 billion in November 2024 to about $52.8 billion in September 2025—a drop of nearly one-third.

Targeted tariffs, renegotiated trade agreements, and stronger domestic industry support have improved trade flows without triggering the inflation that many feared.

Other Improvements That Matter

The Trump administration has taken major steps on other fronts: banning central bank digital currencies, rolling back speech-restrictive regulations, advancing health care reform, and committing to scrap 10 regulations for every new one approved. In foreign policy, it has advocated for peace in Gaza, realistic resolutions in Ukraine, and support for democracy in Venezuela.

The message for conservatives and centrists in Europe and Latin America is clear: growth, jobs, and lower inflation require more than copying bureaucratic, high-tax models. Trump may not be a classical liberal, but his results demonstrate what a reform-minded conservative administration can accomplish.

The uncomfortable reality for many global policymakers is this: the United States has achieved what others only promised—stronger growth, lower inflation, smaller deficits, a healthier labor market, and early signs of debt stabilization. All of this has been accomplished not through expanding the state, but through deregulation, lower taxes, and private-sector empowerment.

Other advanced economies opted for more government, more debt, and climate and social agendas funded through taxes. They now face stagnation, even with favorable energy prices.

Trump’s new term does not guarantee future success. Risks remain. But the first year already poses a challenge to the Keynesian consensus. Had the United States followed the big-government, net-zero, high-tax path, its fiscal and economic situation would likely be far worse—as the United Kingdom’s example makes clear.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 07:20

Trump-Kennedy Center Hits Jazz Star with $1M Lawsuit For Backing Out Of Christmas Eve Show

The Trump-Kennedy Center is pursuing a $1 million lawsuit against jazz musician Chuck Redd after he withdrew from his annual Christmas Eve concert at the last minute, citing the recent addition of President Trump's name to the venue. 

Redd, a drummer and vibraphone player who has performed with legends including Dizzy Gillespie and Ray Brown, had hosted the Christmas Eve Jazz Jam at the Kennedy Center since 2006. He took over the tradition from bassist William "Keter" Betts and maintained it for nearly two decades. This year marked an abrupt departure from that longstanding commitment.

"When I saw the name change on the Kennedy Center website and then hours later on the building, I chose to cancel our concert," Redd told The Associated Press. The decision came shortly after the venue was renamed when the board voted to honor Trump's role in what center officials describe as saving the national cultural institution, which had reportedly been in disrepair prior to Trump’s intervention.

Trump-Kennedy Center leadership characterized Redd’s 11th-hour cancellation as a politically motivated stunt that created a significant financial burden on the nonprofit arts institution.

Trump-Kennedy Center President Richard Grenell sent Redd a letter stating that the institution plans to seek damages for his decision to abandon his hosting duties, citing "partisan political reasons." 

"Your decision to withdraw at the last moment — explicitly in response to the Center's recent renaming, which honors President Trump's extraordinary efforts to save this national treasure — is classic intolerance and very costly to a non-profit Arts institution," Grenell wrote. He argued that Redd's move "surrenders to the sad bullying tactics employed by certain elements on the left, who have sought to intimidate artists into boycotting performances at our national cultural center."

The center's leadership suggests Redd's event had been struggling for some time. Grenell noted that attendance for the Jazz Jam had been "lagging considerably behind our other Christmas and holiday offerings." He drew a sharp contrast between the reception of Redd's programming and the venue’s success under new leadership.

"The contrast between the public's lack of interest in your show with the success we are experiencing under our new chairman is drastic," Grenell wrote. He maintained that "the most avant-garde and well-regarded performers in your genre will still perform regularly, and unlike you, they'll do it to sold out crowds regardless of their political leanings."

The Trump-Kennedy Center's position is that artists have a responsibility to perform for all audiences, regardless of political differences. Vice President of Public Relations Roma Daravi framed the issue in stark terms when speaking to The New York Post.

"Any artist cancelling their show at the Trump Kennedy Center over political differences isn't courageous or principled — they are selfish, intolerant, and have failed to meet the basic duty of a public artist: to perform for all people," Daravi explained. She added that the venue remains committed to presenting diverse programming that transcends political divisions.

"Art is a shared cultural experience meant to unite, not exclude," Daravi added. "The Trump-Kennedy Center is a true bipartisan institution that welcomes artists and patrons from all backgrounds — great art transcends politics, and America's cultural center remains committed to presenting popular programming that inspires and resonates with all audiences."

The lawsuit represents a significant escalation in the ongoing tensions between some artists and the renamed venue. While the center has seen considerable success with other programming during the holiday season, Redd's last-minute cancellation left organizers scrambling and attendees disappointed on what is traditionally one of the most celebrated nights of the year for the center.

The legal action signals that the Trump-Kennedy Center is prepared to hold artists accountable when contractual obligations are abandoned for political reasons. Whether other performers will take note of this hardline stance remains to be seen. 

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 06:55

The week between Christmas and New Year’s Eve Monday morning reads:

• Charles Schwab CEO Explains Why Investing Works—and Gambling Doesn’t. Rick Wurster, Charles Schwab CEO,  says the firm manages $11.8 trillion in assets across 46 million client accounts, serving both retail and independent advisors. Schwab is attracting younger investors, with one in six new clients being Gen Z and 60% of new-to-firm clients under 40 years old, he said. Wurster says Schwab plans to launch spot crypto trading in 2026. (Barron’s)

• Data shows the ‘Made in USA’ brand still suffered under tariffs: Fewer shoppers are return customers of ‘Made in USA’ products. That’s because it still sends the wrong brand signal: expensive. (Fast Company) see also US Trade Dominance Will Soon Begin to Crack: Savvy countries will discover there’s a way to mitigate the harm incurred by Trump’s tariffs—and it’ll boost their own economies while making goods cheaper too. (Wired)

• Family Offices Have Become the New Power Players on Wall Street: Wealthy families are launching offices to manage their money at a record clip and are getting a seat at the table in significant deals. (Wall Street Journal)

• The boomer-doomer divide within OpenAI, explained by Karen Hao: There are two sides to the AI debate, and both are perpetuating the idea that AI is “inevitable, all-powerful, and deserves to be controlled by a tiny group of people,” says the Empire of AI author. (Big Think)

• After three decades of pretty constant growth, the consultancy boom just hit an AI-shaped wall: A partnership with AI may be good for consultants looking to decorate their LinkedIn profiles with AI badges, but it also reflects a deep shift within the industry, as the traditional model built on adding more people to bill for long hours begins to unwind. (Sherwood)

• The Sleeper Issue That Could Destroy the Economy: Trump may have stopped threatening Jerome Powell—but he’s still got designs to control the Fed. (The Bulwark) see also Historic Shift Underway in China’s Economy as Investment Slump Deepens: Investment in manufacturing, infrastructure and property is expected to fall this year, a remarkable turn for an economy whose growth reshaped the world. (New York Times)

• Societies with Little Money Are among the Happiest on Earth: Wealth and well-being go together in many studies, but certain communities complicate this link. (Scientific American)

• Trump’s Own Mortgages Match His Description of Mortgage Fraud:  The Trump administration has argued that Fed board member Lisa Cook may have committed mortgage fraud by declaring more than one primary residence on her loans. We found Trump once did the very thing he called “deceitful and potentially criminal.” (ProPublica)

• 4 surprising, proven rules to avoid getting sick this winter: We all know the basics of avoiding winter bugs, but science is uncovering lesser-known tricks that make a real difference. (BBC Science Focus Magazine)

• Jack Black and Paul Rudd: ‘I had a traumatic experience when I was a kid’ Hollywood’s comedy kings talk about the movies that shaped them and joining forces for Anaconda, a satire about a giant snake. (The Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with comedian Jay Leno, former Tonight Show host, and creator of Jay Leno’s Garage.

 

Stocks are spending less time in the S&P 500

Source: TKer

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

The Global Persecution Of Christians Has Greatly Intensified In 2025

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

While Christians in the western world peacefully celebrate Christmas, most of them have absolutely no idea what is happening to their brothers and sisters on the other side of the globe.  As I detailed a couple of months ago, most of the population of the world lives in a country where Christians are being violently persecuted.  Believers are being rounded up for de-programming in China, churches are being burned to the ground by Hindu extremists in India, Christians are literally being cut into pieces by Islamic radicals in some parts of Africa, practicing your faith can be a death sentence in certain areas of the Middle East, and North Korean concentration camps are teeming with people that are suspected of worshipping Christ.  Perhaps if we were facing similar levels of persecution, believers in the western world would start becoming a lot more serious about their faith.

More than a billion people live in China, and the persecution of Christians in that nation has gone to an entirely different level in 2025.

Earlier this month, over a thousand law enforcement personnel were involved in a massive operation that ultimately resulted in the arrest of hundreds of Christians…

Starting on Dec. 13, the Chinese Communist Party mobilized “more than a thousand police officers, SWAT units, anti-riot forces, and firefighters” in the Zhejiang Province’s Yayang Town in Wenzhou City, raiding churches and conducting mass arrests of Christians, ChinaAid reported Friday.

“Belongings of relevant individuals were illegally confiscated, roads leading to the church were completely blocked by police, and Christians in Yayang Town were unable to enter the Yayang church. The operation lasted nearly five days, yet no public statement was issued by officials,” the outlet noted. “Within just the first two days, several hundreds of people were taken away for questioning. On December 16 and 17, at least four more individuals were detained.”

Restrictions on the Christian faith in China just keep getting tighter and tighter.

Nobody under the age of 18 is permitted to go to church.

Those that are adults are only allowed to go to churches that are officially registered with the government.

Anyone that attempts to defy these rules is at risk of being rounded up and forcibly “de-programmed”…

The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) and other religious liberty watchdogs have repeatedly warned that China’s totalitarian regime is enacting human rights abuses against religious groups within the nation’s border. A USCIRF report late last year detailed mass arrests and the destruction or removal of church property, part of CCP President Xi Jinping’s “sinicization of religion” policy. Religious groups and leaders who do not register with the official government-approved religious organizations are often arrested, imprisoned, and forced into “anti-cult” programs to “de-program” Christians.

In India, it is Hindu extremists that are doing the persecuting.

They have literally burned down hundreds of churches in recent years.

In other instances, mobs of Hindu extremists storm churches and start attacking those that are worshipping.

Earlier this year, I wrote about a mob of 200 extremists that stormed a church and beat the believers they found with iron rods.

More recently, an extremist mob in northern India viciously assaulted a small group of believers and forced them to burn a large pile of Bibles and Christian literature…

The Hindu extremists, whose number had then reached 80, searched their car, pulled out all Bibles and tracts and cast them onto the ground into a heap. They shot videos that showed the two couples, disoriented and in shock, forced to repeat that they intended “conversion” in the village and that they would never return.

The mob kicked the Bibles and spoke disrespectfully about Christ, Masih said.

Pastor Das was forced to write a letter of apology that the video shows in his hand. A member of the mob then took a bottle of flammable liquid from the hands of a boy standing with the mob and forced three of the Christians to sprinkle it on the Bibles and literature. After forcing Pastor Das to set the Bibles on fire, the mob then shouted praises to the Hindu god Rama.

In Nigeria, thousands upon thousands of Christians have been slaughtered this year alone.

President Trump had warned that he would do something about the Islamic terrorists that are doing the slaughtering, and on Christmas Day he took action…

President Trump said Thursday that the U.S. launched “powerful and deadly” strikes against Islamic State forces in Nigeria, after spending weeks accusing the West African country’s government of failing to rein in the persecution of Christians.

“Tonight, at my direction as Commander in Chief, the United States launched a powerful and deadly strike against ISIS Terrorist Scum in Northwest Nigeria, who have been targeting and viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians, at levels not seen for many years, and even Centuries!” Mr. Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social. “I have previously warned these Terrorists that if they did not stop the slaughtering of Christians, there would be hell to pay, and tonight, there was.”

Hopefully this will do something to reduce the violence.

So far in 2025, Islamic terrorists in Nigeria have killed over 12,000 people…

The violence in the northwest region, where the strikes occurred, is driven in large part by armed bandits and gangs kidnapping for ransom. The insurgency is concentrated in the northeast, where jihadist groups like the notorious Boko Haram and its now more powerful splinter, the Islamic State West Africa Province, an affiliate of the Islamic State group, have killed tens of thousands of civilians over the past decade.

Nigeria is not officially at war, but more people are killed there than in most war-torn countries. More than 12,000 people were killed by various violent groups this year alone, according to Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, a conflict monitoring group.

Collectively, more than three billion people live in the three nations that I have already mentioned in this article.

But the persecution that is going on in smaller countries such as North Korea and Eritrea is even worse…

Henrietta Blyth, CEO of Open Doors U.K. and Ireland, previously told Newsweek: “The persecution of Christians around the world is one of the great untold scandals of the 21st Century… It can take many forms: in North Korea, it may be a summary public execution without trial, merely for owning a Bible. In Eritrea, it can be 10 years spent in a blazing hot prison cell made from a metal shipping container, merely for belonging to an unregistered house church.”

According to Open Doors, North Korea is the number one global offender when it comes to Christian persecution, and Eritrea is number four…

• North Korea
• Somalia
• Libya
• Eritrea
• Yemen
• Nigeria
• Pakistan
• Sudan
• Iran
• Afghanistan
• Central African Republic
• Mauritania
• Myanmar
• Mali
• Syria
• Saudi Arabia
• Maldives
• China
• Algeria
• Tunisia
• Morocco
• Burkina Faso
• Turkey
• Cuba
• Niger
• Ethiopia
• Laos
• Tajikistan
• Qatar
• Egypt
• Brunei
• Jordan
• Oman
• United Arab Emirates
• Colombia
• Democratic Republic of Congo
• Mozambique
• Bangladesh
• Vietnam
• Bhutan
• Kazakhstan
• Kuwait
• Malaysia
• Indonesia
• Kyrgyzstan
• Russia
• Sri Lanka
• Western Sahara
• Kosovo
• Bahrain

I was amazed to see that there are 17 nations that rank ahead of China, because China has become a Big Brother police state on steroids.

Perhaps China ranks lower than some of the others because instead of just killing them, the Chinese round Christians up and simply make them “disappear”.

The good news is that persecution often makes the Christian faith grow rapidly, and we are seeing this happen in many areas of the globe.

In fact, it appears that we could actually use some serious persecution here in the United States, because what we are experiencing at this moment is being described as “the great unchurching”…

The U.S. is undergoing its fastest religious shift in modern history, marked by a rapid increase in the religiously unaffiliated and numerous church closures nationwide.

Why it matters: The great unchurching of America comes as identity and reality are increasingly shaped by non-institutional spiritual sources — YouTube mystics, TikTok tarot, digital skeptics, folk saints and AI-generated prayer bots.

When you are facing the fire of persecution, what you do or don’t believe suddenly becomes very clear.

Throughout human history, tyrants have tried and failed to stamp out the Christian faith.

The same thing is true in our time.

Countless believers are choosing imprisonment or death rather than choosing to deny Christ.

If you were faced with the same choice, what would you choose?

You might want to think about that, because the global persecution of Christians is only going to intensify during the very challenging years that are ahead of us.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 06:30

Prediction Consensus: What The Experts See Coming In 2026

For the seventh straight year, Visual Capitalist sifted through the forecast landscape to bring you the Prediction Consensus, a synthesis of what analysts, thought leaders, and industry experts expect for the year ahead.

This year, Nick Routley analyzed over 2,000 individual predictions from a wide variety of sources including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, the IMF, The Economist, Deloitte, Microsoft, Gartner, and dozens more.

By mapping where these forecasts overlap, we’ve distilled the noise into 25 high-conviction themes displayed in our “Bingo Card” format, with the number of dabs reflecting the volume of supporting predictions.

To get the full analysis of the Prediction Consensus and to see what’s ahead for 2026, become a member of VC+ or purchase the full Global Forecast Series report and package.

The General Vibe of 2026

If 2025 was a year of adjustment - markets recalibrating to higher rates, geopolitics reshuffling around a second Trump administration and tariffs, and AI moving from hype to deployment - then 2026 is shaping up as a year of consolidation and consequence.

The consensus mood is cautiously optimistic but shot through with uncertainty. Morgan Stanley describes 2026 as “The Year of Risk Reboot,” a period where market focus shifts from macro anxieties to micro fundamentals, creating fertile ground for risk assets. The policy backdrop is unusually supportive: fiscal stimulus, continued (if slower) monetary easing, and deregulation form what analysts call a “policy triumvirate” rarely seen outside of recessions.

Yet The Economist strikes a more sober tone, warning that 2026 will be defined by uncertainty as Trump’s reshaping of geopolitical norms continues to ripple worldwide. The old rules-based order is drifting further, and the line between war and peace grows ever more blurred through gray-zone provocations, cyber incursions, and an ambient rivalry between nations.

In short: risk assets may thrive, but the world beneath them remains turbulent.

AI: Once Again, the Big Story

For the third consecutive year, artificial intelligence dominates the prediction landscape, but the narrative has evolved. Where 2024 forecasts centered on whether AI hype was justified and 2025 focused on deployment at scale, the 2026 conversation is about integration and consequences.

From Tool to Partner

Across industries, AI is moving beyond answering questions to actively collaborating with people and amplifying their expertise.

This is the year of the agentic AI build-out. Deloitte predicts that by year-end 2026, as many as 75% of companies may be investing in agentic AI (autonomous systems that can plan, act, and adapt with limited human oversight). These AI agents are set to become “digital colleagues,” helping small teams punch above their weight. Microsoft envisions a future where a three-person marketing team can launch a global campaign in days, with AI handling data crunching and content generation while humans steer strategy.

After years of anticipation, productivity gains from AI are finally expected to materialize in measurable ways. Morgan Stanley points to AI-driven efficiency as one of six key drivers of their bullish earnings outlook. Software and internet companies are expected to see generative AI revenue grow more than 20-fold over the next three years.

Of course, AI will impact the job market in other ways as well. Professional and knowledge-worker classes that previously felt insulated are now beginning to feel anxiety around job security.

Market Predictions: Riding the AI Wave

Conveniently, AI also dominates the market story. The consensus is unmistakably bullish, though tempered by valuation concerns and awareness of concentration risks.

S&P 500: Double-Digit Gains Expected

Wall Street strategists are clustered in a tight range for year-end 2026 S&P 500 targets:

 

The bull case from JPMorgan sees the index potentially topping 8,000 if the Fed eases more than expected. Morgan Stanley calls it their most bullish outlook in years, driven by returning operating leverage, AI efficiency gains, accommodative tax and regulatory policy, and contained interest rates.

Importantly, analysts expect earnings to do the heavy lifting in 2026. Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian projects 14% EPS growth but notes that P/E multiples may actually contract by 10 points, meaning the market climbs a wall of valuation skepticism. Morgan Stanley forecasts S&P 500 EPS of $317 in 2026 (17% growth).

Gold’s Super-Cycle Continues

Gold remains a favorite. Morgan Stanley targets $4,500 per ounce—about 9% upside from current levels. The World Gold Council notes that gold achieved over 50 all-time highs in 2025 and may post its fourth-strongest annual return since 1971.

The drivers are structural: central bank buying, geopolitical hedging, and concerns about fiscal sustainability. In a “doom loop” scenario of accelerating fiscal deterioration, gold could surge 15-30% from current levels.

Economic Predictions: Soft Landing, With Caveats

The IMF projects global growth at 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026—below the pre-pandemic average of 3.7% but not recessionary. Morgan Stanley expects similar numbers: 3.0% global growth in 2025, 3.2% in 2026 and 2027.

Advanced economies are expected to grow around 1.5-1.6%, while emerging markets hold above 4%. The consensus is a soft landing: growth moderates, inflation continues its gradual descent, and central banks ease policy—but not aggressively.

The “Higher for Longer” Era Fades

Central bank policy is expected to continue normalizing. Morgan Stanley’s base case has the Fed cutting to 3.0-3.25% by mid-year and then pausing for an extended period. The BoE is expected to bring rates to 2.75% before pausing. The ECB, facing below-target inflation and sluggish growth, may cut further than markets currently price.

Japan remains the outlier: the only major developed market central bank potentially hiking, with the BoJ expected to reach 0.75% by December before pausing.

Geopolitical & Trade Predictions: Tariffs and Tensions Tariffs Become the New Normal

Perhaps no theme generates more consensus than this: the tariff regime is here to stay. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are bringing in close to $300 billion in revenue annually, and while they may face legal challenges (Barclays expects the Supreme Court to deem them illegal), the effective tariff rate has peaked at 12.1%—the highest since 1934.

The economic impact is being absorbed more gracefully than many feared. UBS expects a “soft patch” in early 2026 as tariffs affect U.S. prices, followed by a broadening and strengthening of growth from Q2 onward. But the structural shift is profound: trade may reroute permanently, supply chains are diversifying, and the U.S. is explicitly using tariffs as a tool of economic leverage.

China Leans on Exports and Manufacturing

Facing deflation, a property crisis, and slowing domestic growth, China is pivoting to manufacturing and export dominance. The country is positioning itself as a more reliable partner, particularly in the Global South, striking trade agreements as the U.S. retreats from multilateralism.

Morgan Stanley expects China’s real GDP to expand 5% in 2026, helped by front-loaded government support. But the strategy creates global tensions: industrial overcapacity could flood world markets, and tariff battles may intensify.

Gray-Zone Provocations Increase

The Economist warns that Russia and China will test American commitment to allies through “gray-zone” provocations in northern Europe and the South China Sea. Tensions will rise in the Arctic, in orbit, on the sea floor, and in cyberspace.

This “ambient rivalry” short of outright war but beyond normal peacetime friction is expected to accelerate. Great-power competition will increasingly involve space-based intelligence, drone technology, and AI-powered cyber operations.

Assessing the Consensus

History teaches humility about forecasting. Previous years have contained unforeseen developments, and there’s no reason to expect 2026 to unfold precisely as consensus expects.

What’s valuable isn’t the specific predictions, but themes where informed observers are concentrating their attention. Examples include the transition from AI experimentation to building out infrastructure to support its widespread use. Or stablecoins becoming mainstream financial instruments.

Some of these themes will prove accurate; others will be derailed by events. But taken together, they sketch the landscape that institutions, investors, and policymakers are navigating as they position for the year ahead.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/28/2025 - 21:35

The Good News Is People Are Realizing We're On Our Own

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

We no longer care who's behind the curtain because we're in charge of our own lives now.

The Good News is people are realizing We're On Our Own and starting to take action accordingly.

This article describes how people in one low-income county are localizing self-reliance rather than remain dependent on government subsidies.

The War on Poverty Failed Them--and They're No Longer Waiting For Help (wsj.com, paywalled) Federal money and projects have come and gone so many times that McDowell County locals have little faith in the government to restore their fortunes; 'We're on our own.'

Here in the heart of America's War on Poverty, some two-thirds of households with children still get food stamps, among the nation's highest rates, and the estimated median household income hovers around $35,000. Nonfarm employment has plummeted 78% since 1975, according to data compiled by West Virginia University economist John Deskins, as the coal that once powered this rugged place is now mostly mined with machines, if at all, and no other industry has replaced it. The county has lost 67% of its residents over those years, the largest drop in West Virginia, its population dwindling from just over 51,000 to roughly 17,000.

With little faith left in government to break the cycle of poverty, those who remain say it'ss up to them to forge a brighter economic path.

"We're on our own," said Jason Tartt. "Nobody's coming down here to save us."

Tartt, the grandson of coal miners, is teaching locals, including retired miners and those recovering from opioid addiction, how to farm the forested hillsides. Down the winding, two-lane roads that connect communities, a pastor organizes bottled-water drives for neighbors whose tap water is undrinkable, while the local utility patches together funding for long-term solutions. A tiny, former coal town is trying to transform a shuttered Walmart into a new factory it hopes will jolt the local economy.

Their efforts are small in comparison to the government programs that have sought to revive McDowell County, and can't make up for the prosperity that slipped away when the coal companies left. But they are spurring hope for renewal in some places, driven by one of the few constants here: resilience.

Nobody includes not just the federal government; it also includes Corporate America. Walmart pulls the plug on under-performing stores regardless of their local importance, and the rest of Corporate America is equally focused on next quarter's profits.

Dependence breeds helplessness, passivity, addiction and the decay of community. There are alternatives. Those seeking to maintain the status quo dismiss alternatives that don't require Wall Street, federal monies and Corporate America ownership because those institutions are buttering their bread.

But out in the real world, there are alternatives--underfunded, dismissed as impractical, etc., but real nonetheless, for example: Regenerative Farmers of America (6:19 minutes) (via Chad D.)

As I observe in my book on Self-Reliance in the 21st Century, we all have to start somewhere, and as the Chinese saying put it, the journey of a thousand miles starts with the first step. (A thousand li in the original, of course.)

Self-reliance sounds like an individual journey, but it's fundamentally a community effort as no one person can fulfill every function. As the number of people participating expands, the self-reliance of each participant expands, too.

Those working on self-reliance tend to lead by example. Get the work done, share the results, keep moving forward. There's no jetting around to meetings and conferences, just do the work on the ground. Get it done, learn from mistakes and from others' experiences, experiment to identify what works best in local conditions.

When we realize we really are on our own, things change for the better. We start taking full responsibility for our health, work, goals and integrity. We start thinking through Plans A, B, and if things unravel, Plan C. We lose interest in addictive technologies and substances and other hindrances. We start noticing improvements and taking well-earned pride in them.

We no longer care who's behind the curtain because we're in charge of our own lives now.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Sun, 12/28/2025 - 21:00

New Orleans Has The Highest Homicide Rate Among Major US Cities

Across the United States, there were 22,830 homicides in 2023, averaging 6.8 deaths per 100,000 people.

Homicide rates vary widely across American cities, influenced by factors such as poverty, inequality, gun laws, and local policing strategies.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, shows the top 40 U.S. cities by their homicide rate per 100,000 residents and the total number of homicides, based on the latest reported data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Where Homicide Rates Are Highest in America

Cities in the South and Midwest tend to show higher homicide rates, reflecting a combination of economic stress, structural inequality, and regional differences in firearm access and enforcement.

The table below ranks the top 40 U.S. cities by homicide rate:

Rank Major City State Homicides per 100,000 people Total Homicides 1 New Orleans LA 46 166 2 Memphis TN 41 372 3 St. Louis MO 38 106 4 Baltimore MD 36 205 5 Washington, DC DC 36 244 6 Birmingham AL 28 187 7 Philadelphia PA 26 402 8 Kansas City MO 25 182 9 Richmond VA 23 53 10 Indianapolis IN 22 211 11 Milwaukee WI 21 190 12 Louisville KY 19 146 13 Cleveland OH 18 220 14 Detroit MI 17 304 15 Norfolk VA 17 40 16 Atlanta GA 16 175 17 Chicago IL 16 805 18 Jacksonville FL 15 153 19 Nashville TN 15 103 20 Dallas TX 12 319 21 Columbus OH 12 159 22 Houston TX 11 540 23 Denver CO 11 77 24 San Antonio TX 10 218 25 Cincinnati OH 10 83 26 New York City (The Bronx) NY 9 128 27 Rochester NY 9 69 28 Las Vegas NV 9 207 29 Portland OR 9 70 30 Oakland CA 8 136 31 Oklahoma City OK 8 66 32 Phoenix AZ 7 337 33 Pittsburgh PA 8 98 34 Charlotte NC 8 90 35 Orlando FL 7 104 36 Minneapolis MN 7 88 37 Los Angeles CA 7 659 38 Miami FL 7 176 39 Newark NJ 7 56 40 Virginia Beach VA 6 29

New Orleans ranks first, with a homicide rate of 46 per 100,000 people. Memphis and St. Louis follow closely, each reporting rates above 38 per 100,000. While these cities have a relatively low number of total homicides, their small population sizes place them among the most violent cities in the country.

In terms of total homicides, Chicago ranks first with more than 800 homicides, followed by Los Angeles and Houston. Despite the high totals, these cities have relatively lower rates due to their large populations.

Many Southern and Western states with high homicide rates also rank highly in gun-related deaths per 100,000 people, reflecting a combination of firearm availability, gun ownership rates, and broader socioeconomic challenges.

If you found this infographic interesting, see this graphic on America’s Most Dangerous Cities on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/28/2025 - 20:25

Rewind Your Age Naturally: The Secret Lies In 6 Superfoods

Authored by JoJo Novaes & Arthur Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Can you imagine rewinding your biological clock by more than two years in just eight weeks, simply by adjusting your diet and lifestyle? It might be possible.

Illustration by The Epoch Times/Shutterstock

A study published in Aging found that foods rich in methylated adaptogens significantly reduced epigenetic age. In an eight-week randomized controlled trial, male participants aged 50 to 72 who adopted a methylation-focused diet experienced a decrease in epigenetic age of 2.04 years from baseline. Meanwhile, the control group aged forward by an average of 1.10 years, creating a gap of 3.14 years between the two groups.

Even after accounting for weight changes or baseline epigenetic ages, the results remained strong, indicating that these foods directly influence aging markers.

Epigenetic age reveals how old your cells appear, with DNA methylation patterns serving as a window into cellular aging.

Nutritionist Tsai Yi-fang from Taiwan’s Keyi Nutrition Consultation Center told The Epoch Times on the “Health 1+1” program that methylation is like a toggle switch for your DNA. If you add a methyl group, a gene’s function might shut off; if you remove one, that function flips on. For instance, heavy methylation of tumor suppressor genes could impair their ability to suppress cancer. On the flip side, low methylation of inflammation genes can ramp up your body’s inflammatory response.

Striking the right balance is key—too much or too little methylation can spell trouble.

Top 6 Anti-Aging Superfoods

The study highlights six foods—turmeric, rosemary, garlic, berries, green tea, and oolong tea—that are rich in phytochemicals called methyl adaptogens. These compounds fine-tune DNA methylation, keeping genes in a healthy state and lowering disease risk. Each food also brings unique benefits:

• Turmeric: Packed with curcumin, a potent antioxidant and anti-inflammatory compound that supports liver health and is especially effective for improving non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.
• Berries: Loaded with anthocyanins and vitamin C, berries boast exceptional antioxidant power. Bilberries enhance eye health, grapes support cardiovascular wellness, and cranberries promote urinary tract health.
• Garlic: With antibacterial, antiviral, and immune-regulating properties, garlic strengthens overall health and helps manage conditions such as small intestinal bacterial overgrowth.
• Rosemary: Rich in rosmarinic acid, a powerful antioxidant and anti-inflammatory compound that can relieve headaches, stomach pain, nervous tension, and improve mood and memory.
• Green Tea and Oolong Tea: Both are rich in catechins and polyphenols, providing robust antioxidant and anti-inflammatory benefits.

The Epoch Times Additional Methylation-Regulating Foods

In addition to the six foods highlighted in the study, Tsai noted additional foods that regulate methylation:

Beets: Rich in betaine and folate, beets act as methyl donors, supporting methylation regulation in the body, particularly beneficial for people with low methylation levels.

Quinoa: Similar to beets, quinoa is a source of betaine, which provides methyl groups to support a healthy methylation cycle.

Cruciferous Vegetables: Such as broccoli, kale, bok choy, and cabbage, contain high levels of sulforaphane, which influences methylation patterns by regulating DNA methyltransferases (a large family of enzymes) and supports liver detoxification.

Spinach: A leafy green high in folate, spinach also contains magnesium and vitamin B6, essential nutrients for the methylation cycle. Additionally, it provides antioxidants that protect DNA from external damage.

Avocado: Beyond being rich in folate and vitamin B6, avocados contain healthy fatty acids that support brain function and methylation regulation, as well as high levels of glutathione, which aids liver detoxification.

Mushrooms: Mushrooms are packed with vitamins and contain ergothioneine, an antioxidant that protects methyltransferases from oxidative damage.

The Epoch Times Methylation-Regulating Herbs

Beyond food, certain herbs also possess methylation-regulating and anti-aging properties, such as Rhodiola rosea and Ashwagandha. However, it’s essential to consult a doctor before taking herbs to ensure they are suitable for your constitution, as improper use may harm health.

Rhodiola Rosea: Balances stress hormones, supports mitochondrial methylation activity, and may protect brain tissue from oxidative stress. Clinical trials have shown that Rhodiola rosea can help alleviate physical and mental symptoms associated with stress and overexertion.

Ashwagandha: Rich in withanolides and alkaloids, Ashwagandha may influence methylation by modulating stress response.

The Epoch Times Unhealthy Habits That Hasten Aging

Alongside eating beneficial foods, steering clear of habits that hasten aging is just as vital, Tsai said.

• Chronic Sleep Deprivation and Late Nights: Regularly staying up late or insufficient sleep increases oxidative stress, which damages DNA and proteins, speeding up the aging process.
• Chronic Stress: Persistent stress contributes to bodily damage and accelerates the aging process.
• Lack of Exercise or Overexertion: A sedentary lifestyle or excessive exercise can increase oxidative stress, promoting premature aging.

Foods to Avoid

• Foods High in Sugar: A diet high in sugar fuels glycation, generating harmful advanced glycation end-products that contribute to the aging process.
• Processed Foods: Often laden with nitrites and other carcinogenic substances, processed foods can harm cellular health and increase aging markers.
• Artificial Sweeteners: Disrupt the gut microbiome, potentially causing metabolic imbalances that contribute to aging.

Choosing High-Quality Carbohydrates

Tsai noted the crucial role of high-quality carbohydrates in supporting healthy aging. According to the Nurses’ Health Study, which analyzed dietary data from 47,513 women, long-term intake of nutrient-dense carbohydrates—such as fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and legumes—was linked to improved health in older age. These foods offer key benefits:

• Nutrient-Dense: Rich in dietary fiber, vitamins, and minerals, they support overall wellness and vitality.
• Low-Glycemic Index: Helps maintain stable blood sugar levels, preventing spikes that can accelerate aging.
• Anti-Inflammatory Effects: Reduces inflammation, a major contributor to age-related diseases.

Nutritionist’s Secrets to Youthful Vitality

Tsai shared her proven strategies for maintaining a vibrant, youthful glow through simple, sustainable lifestyle choices:

• Consistent Exercise: Tsai runs twice a week for an hour, alternating fast and slow paces to keep her metabolism humming. Whether it’s cardio or strength training, she recommends choosing an exercise you enjoy and can maintain consistently for long-term benefits.
• Robust Sun Protection: To protect against aging UV rays, Tsai advises using sunscreen and wearing sunglasses during midday or afternoon outings. In polluted urban areas, she recommends wearing a mask to block harmful fine particles that can damage health.
• Clean, Light Eating: Even with frequent meals out, Tsai ensures home-cooked dishes are light and wholesome, allowing her body space to detoxify and rejuvenate.
• Stress Reduction: Chronic stress is a silent accelerator of aging. By scheduling time for relaxation and learning to adapt to stress, Tsai nurtures both mental and physical well-being.

Reversing the clock doesn’t require costly supplements. The true secret lies in daily habits: savor antioxidant-rich, gene-regulating foods, pair them with regular exercise, ample sleep, and stress relief, and keep a positive mindset. Begin now to cultivate lasting vitality!

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/28/2025 - 19:50

India's Modi Has The Highest Approval Rating Of World Leaders Heading Into 2026

Public approval of political leaders reflects a mix of economic conditions, policy decisions, and broader voter sentiment. As 2025 comes to a close, approval ratings offer a snapshot of how leaders around the world are perceived heading into 2026.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, ranks major global leaders by approval rating, based on surveys conducted between December 8 and 14, 2025, by Morning Consult.

High Approval at the Top, but Fewer Standouts

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi ranks first overall, with 71% approval heading into 2026. Although still well ahead of peers, his approval declined modestly from 75% in January 2025.

A similar pattern appears elsewhere: even leaders near the top of the rankings faced gradual erosion in support over the year, reflecting persistent inflation, cost-of-living pressures, and political fatigue among voters.

Approval Gains Reflect New Leadership, Not Turnarounds

Japan, South Korea, Canada, Austria, and Belgium all show higher approval ratings at the end of 2025, but these increases reflect new leaders replacing unpopular predecessors.

Much of Europe enters 2026 with leaders facing net-negative approval. France’s Emmanuel Macron ranks last, with approval in the low teens and disapproval near 80%. The UK’s Keir Starmer, Germany’s Friedrich Merz, and several Nordic leaders also post approval ratings in the 30% range or lower.

In the United States, Donald Trump sits in the middle of the ranking, with approval and disapproval nearly evenly split.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The World’s Top Nations by GDP Per Capita Growth on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/28/2025 - 19:15

Silver Tops $83: "When Prices Move Like This, An Awful Lot Of Bad Things Become Possible..."

The final week of the year begins with silver adding to a stunning month of gains, topping $83 for the first time...

Platinum and gold are also catching an early bid, with Treasury futures lower. 

Silver is now at its most expensive relative to gold since Feb 2013...

Analyst and financial writer John Rubino has been warning of a currency crisis., expounding on his warning via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com.

On Friday, we saw a record high price spike for silver that produced a record high price for the white metal.  Meanwhile, we saw record high prices for gold on the same day. 

This has never happened before, and that shows the currency crisis long predicted is here.  Rubino says,

“Currencies are pouring into real money in anticipation of the existing fiat currencies dying.  That is a whole different thing and on a much bigger scale because the numbers are grossly inflated after 70 years of a credit super cycle.  So, what we have seen so far is really just the beginning. 

Gold and silver have had huge runs, but they are doing it when things are more or less still normal.  Precious metals are starting to soar in anticipation of something abnormal coming. 

Right now, this is a bigger gold than silver story because gold is the money we go back to when national currencies fail.  Silver is a more complex story because it is also an industrial metal. 

There are new industries that are using more and more silver, and there is just not enough silver to satisfy that demand.”

Rubino contends the silver price spike will bring on a lot of volatility.  Rubino points out, “That is pretty much a lock..."

"Silver is probably going to bounce around a lot in the next week or so. . .. All the silver is being sucked away, and when they run out, they say we will just pay you cash for these futures contracts.  If that happens, that is basically the end of paper exchanges. 

We will just totally stop trusting them. 

Why would anybody want a long futures contract on an exchange that just defaults . . ..  This is another big thing that might happen in the coming weeks. 

When you see prices move like this, an awful lot of bad things become possible. . ..

There are a lot of shorts out there that just went massively underwater on Friday. . .. Somebody big has a lot of losses. . .. It’s like Warren Buffett says, ‘You only know who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out.  Well, the tide has gone out for silver, and now we are going to find out who was unwisely short that market in the past week.”

Rubino sees silver resetting to at least $200 per ounce in the not-too-distant future.  Gold will also reset to at least $10,000 per ounce.  

Rubino says the next big trend is Big Tech players buying actual silver mines and bypassing metal exchanges altogether.  Rubino says,

“Big Tech players are going to go out and get silver now, so they are set for the next few years.  Yes, some of them are starting to buy silver mines. 

In the mining sector, this is one of the big changes we will see coming soon. 

Maybe Tesla buys First Majestic or some mine like that.  Tesla buys a big silver mining company with multiple silver mines to guarantee silver supply going forward. . .. Google, Meta or Microsoft can pay insane amounts of money for commodities if they need to.  It’s inventory building and panic buying in some cases. . ..

All roads lead to higher precious metals right now.  The only way it doesn’t is if there is a global nuclear war that extinguishes civilization. 

Take that out of the equation, and everything points to weaker currencies and higher precious metals prices.”

There is more in the 49-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer John Rubino of the popular site called Rubino.Substack.com for 12.27.25.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/28/2025 - 18:40

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of December 28, 2025

• Question #6 for 2026: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2026?

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. This is the last of regional manufacturing surveys for December.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 1 and DOW futures are up 28 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $57.02 per barrel and Brent at $61.03 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $71, and Brent was at $74 - so WTI oil prices are down about 20% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.76 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $2.98 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.22 year-over-year.

Watch: Russian Diplomat Shocked As FSB Nabs Him For Selling Secrets To US

A former Russian diplomat has been sentenced to 12 years in a high-security penal colony after being convicted of passing state secrets to the United States, which allegedly happened during his stint as an assistant to Russia's consulate general in Houston, where he worked between 2014 and 2017.

The Federal Security Service (FSB) announced Friday that 38-year old Arseniy Konovalov has been found guilty of treason. He was detained in March last year on suspicion of providing classified information to American intelligence, and the newly released video of the moment he was detained by the Russian security service while inside a vehicle upon his return to Russia has gone viral. He has a look of utter shock and horror on his face upon realizing what was happening.

The FSB in its statement alleged that “AS Konovalov, an employee of the Russian foreign ministry, during a long-term foreign assignment in the United States, proactively transferred secret information to American intelligence for money.”

The video release further showed Konovalov placed in a holding cage at Moscow's Lefortovo district court by masked officers after being taken from the vehicle.

On top of the sizeable prison sentence, the court also fined Konovalov 100,000 roubles. The security service did not specify the nature of the information which was allegedly handed over to the US side, nor did it make any supposed evidence public. 

US officials have also not commented on or confirmed the case, but there has been speculation on Russian Telegram channels that Konovalov was recruited by the CIA at some point.

There are reports that espionage and treason investigations and cases overseen by Russian authorities have jumped significantly since the start of the Ukraine war, which is about to reach completion of its fourth year.

Watch: The diplomat's eyes get big, a shocked and anxious look on his face, at the moment one FSB officer holds up an identifying badge and the others grab him from behind...

A court in Moscow sentenced former Russian diplomat Arseniy Konovalov to 12 years in a maximum-security penal colony for treason, accusing him of passing secrets to U.S. intelligence.

Konovalov, a former Foreign Ministry employee, was arrested in March 2024. pic.twitter.com/SlpoWdTaW5

— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 27, 2025

Certainly there's been an intelligence-driven 'dirty war' happening with intensity behind the scenes both in Russia and Europe, as each rival side tries to gain an informational edge in the context of the NATO vs. Moscow stand-off.

There have also over several years been a number of American travelers and even journalists arrested in Russia on allegations of espionage - though Washington has consistently deemed these 'wrongful detentions'.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/28/2025 - 18:05