"Largest Act Of Deregulation In US History": Trump Admin To Repeal Obama-Era Greenhouse Gas Finding

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is about to pull the rug from underneath climate regulation...

The EPA, under Lee Zeldin, plans to revoke the 2009 "endangerment finding", an Obama-era determination that six greenhouse gases “threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations” and that has anchored federal climate regulation under the Clean Air Act, according to a new Wall Street Journal report.

Bloomberg reported that the repeal could be announced as soon as Wednesday, citing an unnamed source.

Repealing the Obama-era climate finding would strip away the legal foundation for federal greenhouse gas regulation, which has been nothing more than toxic and degrowth for the economy, while China and India expanded coal-fired generation to power manufacturing hubs.

"This amounts to the largest act of deregulation in the history of the United States," EPA head Zeldin said in an interview.

Officials say it does not directly apply to emissions rules for oil-and-gas power plants and other stationary sources, but repealing the finding could make it easier to challenge or roll back those regulations at a later date.

The rollback would be a major win for the economy, which has been burdened by years of Democrats' "climate crisis" policies, which have epically backfired as electricity rates have soared amid terrible bets on unreliable solar and wind generation and the retirement of fossil-fuel plants.

This has all collided with grid strain in the data center era, triggering a power bill crisis across Maryland and other Mid-Atlantic states.

Also, this brutally cold winter has only underscored one very important point for 'team fossil fuels': coal and natural gas have helped keep the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast power grids from collapsing in recent weeks.

Related:

• "Sleep Tight, America. We Got This": NatGas And Coal Power Plants Prevented Grid Collapse During Historic Winter Blast

Since taking office, President Trump has pursued deregulation and pushed for reliable fossil fuels, telling supporters during the campaign trail, "drill, baby, drill." The goal, the president has stated over and over, is to reverse the worst inflation storm in a generation, which he blames on Democrats and their nation-killing green agenda.

On President Trump's first day of office last year, he signed an executive order directing the EPA to submit an assessment on the endangerment finding. Then by July, he received the proposal to rescind the finding.

Now, the rollback that would equal upwards of $1 trillion in cuts is set to be announced this week, along with several other energy- and climate-related announcements that will help drive down the cost of living.

"More energy drives human flourishing," Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in an interview. "Energy abundance is the thing that we have to focus on, not regulating certain forms of energy out."

The U.S. economy has spent two decades under "climate crisis" regulations, and it has backfired spectacularly. Time to get back to basics. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 17:20

Kieran Smith and Mary McDougall of the Financial Times report top bosses depart Canadian pension fund after Thames Water fiasco:

One of Canada’s biggest pension funds has parted ways with two top infrastructure executives after writing off its stake in Thames Water and the souring of another high-profile European investment.

Alastair Hall, senior managing director for Europe, and Chris Hogg, a director who led the firm’s digital infrastructure investments, have left Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System in recent weeks, according to three people familiar with the matter.

The exits follow struggles at two of Omers’ top investments. Hall, who joined in 2014, was involved in the fund’s investment in Thames Water. The fund was the utility’s largest shareholder and wrote off its entire 31 per cent stake in 2024.

Hogg, who joined in 2023, was one of the lead executives on Deutsche Glasfaser, a heavily indebted German broadband provider now scrambling to secure its financial future. Omers jointly bought Glasfaser with EQT in 2020 and holds a 49 per cent stake.

In December, the pension fund proposed a €1.7bn refinancing deal to Glasfaser’s creditors alongside EQT under which the owners would inject €1.1bn of “preferred” equity in exchange for €600mn of “super senior” debt.

Holders of the “super senior” debt would be the first to be repaid in the event of a bankruptcy, while “preferred” equity investors would get priority over the previous equity put into the business.

The shareholders have already invested €4bn into Glasfaser since purchasing it from KKR in 2020. Last year, they were forced to scale back the company’s original goal of serving 6mn homes by 2032 to just 3.2mn, in an effort to cut costs and stabilise the business.

A person familiar with the matter said Hogg was not the most senior Omers executive responsible for Glasfaser.

Omers manages C$141bn (about $104bn) of assets on behalf of 640,000 current or former public-sector and community workers in Canada’s Ontario province.

Some 22 per cent of the fund was invested in infrastructure at the end of June, with 19 per cent in private equity and 13 per cent in private credit. European investments account for 18 per cent of the total portfolio.

The fund is exploring the sale of its 33 per cent stake in Associated British Ports in a deal it hopes will complete in the second half of this year and value the UK’s biggest ports operator at more than £10bn.

It also sold its stake in London City Airport to Macquarie last year alongside Alberta Investment Management Corporation, following Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan’s sale of its holding in the airport to Australia’s largest infrastructure investor last June.

A person familiar with Omers said the sales and the departure of executives did not indicate that Omers was looking to scale back its European infrastructure investments. They cited the fund’s acquisition of a network of Italian railway stations, Grandi Stazioni Retail, alongside DWS in 2024.

The same year, Omers restructured its European private equity team as it announced it would no longer invest directly in private companies in the region.

Michael Hill, global head of Omers Infrastructure, said Europe remained an integral part of its diversification strategy. He thanked Hall for his “significant contributions” and said recruitment for a new European infrastructure head was under way.

Siqalane Taho of Infrastructure Investor also reports OMERS Infrastructure’s European head Hall resigns:

The infrastructure investment division of the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System (OMERS) has seen the head of its European business exit the organisation, Infrastructure Investor has learned.

Sources with knowledge of the matter said that Alastair Hall has resigned from his position as senior managing director and head of Europe at OMERS Infrastructure.

Michael Hill, executive vice president and global head of OMERS Infrastructure, confirmed the news in a statement to Infrastructure Investor.

“Alastair Hall has decided to leave OMERS. We want to thank him for his significant contributions to our team and growth of the infrastructure asset class in the region. We wish him all the best for his next career chapter,” he noted.

Infrastructure Investor understands that the firm is to embark on a recruitment drive to fill the vacant position, with managing directors reporting to Hill in the interim.

Hall joined OMERS in 2014, rising through the ranks to oversee the firm’s European investment activities and team from London in 2021.

Prior to that, he was global head of investment strategy and partnerships, where he was tasked with advancing the Canadian-headquartered manager’s international investment strategy and leading third-party capital formation initiatives.

Previously, Hall was responsible for allocating capital across the European energy, renewables and utilities value chain, including leading key investments in Thames Water, Ellevio, Net4Gas, Associated British Ports, Caruna, High Speed 1, SGN and MapleCo.

OMERS Infrastructure was forced to write off its entire 31.7 percent stake, valued at £990 million ($1.3 billion; €1.2 billion), in the beleaguered UK utility Thames Water in May 2024. The water company was then placed in special measures by the UK water industry regulator Ofwat in July 2024.

At the time, the utility had a net debt of £18 billion, up from £11 billion when OMERS Infrastructure made its investment in 2017.

In an interview with Infrastructure Investor in July 2024, Hill said of the Thames Water episode: “Obviously, we’re very disappointed with the outcome. You don’t go into an investment like this expecting this outcome. We’re very disappointed on behalf of customers in London and all of our stakeholders that we represent.

“Our team gave a tireless effort to try and get us to a better outcome and, in the end, I think we made a decision that was based on our fiduciary obligations to not continue to invest.”

At the end of 2024, OMERS’ annual report revealed that its infrastructure unit’s performance had recovered to an annualised 8.8 percent net IRR, up from a net return of 5.5 percent in 2023, but below the 12.7 percent achieved in 2022. It has a 10-year average return of 10.5 percent.

Before joining OMERS Infrastructure, Hall, an Oxford PPE graduate, worked for more than three years as an investment banker in Deutsche Bank’s London office, where he was a director in the natural resources unit.

His career began at Bank of America Merrill Lynch where he spent six years in the investment banking team, advising on energy and power sector deals.

Hall did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Alright, never a dull moment in the Canadian pension world, more executive shakeups to report on, this time at OMERS Infrastructure.

I can't say I'm surprised, Thames Water was a disastrous investment for OMERS which it ended up writing off completely and someone had to take the fall.

I want to make it clear however that Alastair Hall worked on many exceptional investments at OMERS Infrastructure and it's too bad Thames will be associated with him. 

I hated that investment from the time Macquarie sold it and it was an impossible task to turn that sinking ship around.

As far as Chris Hogg, who joined OMERS Infrastructure from Amber Infrastructure back in 2023 to lead the investment efforts in digital infrastructure in Europe, I honestly don't know much about him or what exactly happened with the Glasfaser investment.

But he was just a director so a senior managing director approved that investment.

If I'm not mistaken, he reported to Alastair Hall who hired him. 

Anyway, OMERS Infrastructure is a lot bigger and stronger than these two investments, they will recruit new people and move on (I'll pass on some names to Michael Hill but I'm sure he has a short list already).

Executive shakeups happen all the time at the Maple 8 but lately they've been happening more frequently all over.

From the outside it doesn't look good but they're running a business, they need to make sure they have the right people at the top spots to continue delivering stellar long-term results.

And in the case of OMERS Infrastructure, they're also managing third-party money so they need to be on their A game all the time. 

It doesn't mean Alastair Hall and Chris Hogg are bad infrastructure investors, they're both sharp and experienced, it just means it's time for a change to introduce new blood to the organization. 

Alastair knows Annesley Wallace very well as they both worked on strategy in the past, so wouldn't be surprised if he helps HOOPP map out its European strategy.

We shall see, I obviously have no clue but wish Alastair Hall and Chris Hogg all the best, onward!

As for OMERS Infrastructure, Michael Hill will get busy recruiting top talent and moving on as well.

That's part of the business, not pleasant but sometimes necessary.

Below, from sewage spills to owing billions in debt, the UK’s biggest water company has come under a lot of heat recently. And, its grand rescue plan has just fallen through. Here’s a breakdown of the whole scandal from start to finish.

Obamacare Fraud Targeted By New Federal Rule

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has unveiled new regulations to strengthen the integrity of the Obamacare insurance exchanges and promote innovation.

The new federal rule, released for comment on Feb. 9, will lower the cost of health care, according to Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

“At President [Donald] Trump’s direction, [this agency] is driving down costs and rooting out fraud across our health insurance programs,” Kennedy said in a statement, predicting that the policy changes overall will reduce premiums and increase consumer choice.

Eligibility Verification

New anti-fraud regulations will require stronger enforcement of eligibility and income verification, correcting a situation that some observers say allowed unscrupulous insurance brokers to sign up millions of people for the program without their knowledge, particularly in plans with no premiums.

America’s Health Insurance Plans, the trade association for health insurance companies, has disputed that claim. However, 24 had more enrollees in Obamacare zero-premium plans in 2024 than they had qualifying residents, according to data from the think tank Paragon Health Institute.

The new regulations, once finalized, will require agents and brokers to use federally-approved forms for verifying enrollee eligibility and to obtain their consent for enrollment.

The regulations also make it clear what action a consumer must take to review and affirm their personal and eligibility information, and to signify their consent.

The rule would clarify which individuals qualify for Obamacare subsidies as “eligible noncitizens,” and would deny subsidies to those who are ineligible for Medicaid due to their immigration status.

Marketing Practices

A second program change prohibits certain marketing practices for agents and brokers who help customers sign up for Obamacare through the federal and state marketplaces.

Providing cash, cash equivalents, or monetary rebates to influence customers to enroll would be prohibited.

Also prohibited are falsely suggesting that customers would qualify for a zero-premium plan and misleading customers about enrollment deadlines.

“This proposal would ensure consumers are provided accurate information about the Exchange prior to enrollment, maintain the integrity of the exchanges, and foster trust between consumers and agents, brokers, and web-brokers,” according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Payment Tracking

The new rule seeks to create an information security protocol for enrollees of the program as of 2024 to measure improper payments in the state-based exchanges.

Fraud, waste, and abuse costs the program up to $27 billion annually by some estimates, said Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.).

“This fraud can directly impact the legitimate needs of patients, who may face denied claims or delayed care when their providers struggle to verify which insurance is valid due to the chaos created by schemes like people using stolen identities to sign up for multiple plans,” Smith said in November.

Consumer Choice

Other provisions of the rule aim to expand consumer choice and bring down prices.

The draft of the policy permits insurance companies to offer catastrophic plans with terms from one to 10 years. Currently, customers must be either under 30 years old, ineligible for a subsidy for a marketplace plan, or have a hardship or affordability exemption.

The rule would expand hardship exemptions for people aged 30 and above to make catastrophic plans more accessible.

Also, insurers would be allowed to offer Obamacare plans that do not meet the standard plan requirements. Standardized plans have the same deductibles and cost-sharing, which makes it easier to compare various plans based on price and other factors.

The change aims to give issuers more flexibility to tailor plan options to their marketplaces.

“The goal is simple: lower costs, more choice, and exchanges that work as intended,” Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, said in a Feb. 9 statement.

The proposed regulations will be published in the Federal Register on Feb. 11 and open for comment for 30 days.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 17:00

Trump Threatens To Send Second Carrier Near Iran

For the past week, the Pentagon's ongoing military build-up in the Middle East has grabbed world headlines amid fears President Trump is ready to do another Venezuela - but this time targeting a much bigger and more formidable country and its army - the Islamic Republic of Iran.

US officials have lately made clear that Trump favors a negotiated solution where the Iranians would give up their nuclear program, dilute enrichment, as well as significantly curb their long and medium-range ballistic missile arsenal. 

But already by Tuesday, Trump himself is waving the big stick again, threatening to deploy a second aircraft carrier near Iran if Oman talks don't bear fruit.

The president told Axios in a newly published interview:

"We have an armada that is heading there and another one might be going," Trump said, adding that he's "thinking" about sending another aircraft carrier strike group.

Two carriers would definitely signal 'game on' for conflict with Iran.

Illustrative DOD image

The USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group is already poised for action in regional waters just south of Iran, and this involves dozens of fighter jets, Tomahawk missiles, along with several support warships. 

Trump took the opportunity to repeat a US ultimatum to Tehran: "Either we will make a deal or we will have to do something very tough like last time," he told Axios. The Iranians will no doubt have this ringing in their ears headed into a planned second round of talks next week.

But Trump still claimed that Iran "wants to make a deal very badly" and is engaging much more seriously than in the past. There are signs that this is accurate, given the latest offer to dilute its enriched uranium in exchange for the lifting of all sanctions.

The US president articulated his view that the June war taught the Iranians a huge lesson: "Last time they didn't believe I would do it," Trump said. "They overplayed their hand."

But of course, at that very moment just before Israel attacked (followed by the US bombing three nuclear sites by the close of the 12-day conflict), Iran thought it was engaged in good faith talks. Trump is still holding out hope that "We can make a great deal with Iran."

Trump reportedly said he is considering sending a second aircraft carrier near Iran.

*It would take 15-20 days for a second aircraft carrier to get ready to deploy and arrive in the region. https://t.co/gKuuPWN53C pic.twitter.com/A0xP56c9gH

— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) February 10, 2026

Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu is due in Washington Wednesday. It's something like Bibi's seventh visit, and without doubt he will push Trump for maximum force and threats against the Ayatollah. Some pundits have warned that Israel is leading the way on Iran policy, but Trump has at times shown willingness to put Netanyahu in his place - so the Israeli prime minister will have to tread carefully.

Meanwhile all the obvious things remain in Washington's max etc tool kit: the WSJ reports Tuesday the US is weighing seizing tankers (again) carrying Iranian oil in order to pressure Tehran.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 16:40

As ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation on July 30, 2025

Joe Rogan Reveals Details Of His Invite To Epstein Island

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

Joe Rogan has come forward to explain his appearance in the latest Jeffrey Epstein file dump, emphasizing that he’s mentioned solely because he refused to meet the convicted sex offender.

Rogan’s rejection stands in stark contrast to the ongoing associations maintained by powerful figures like Reid Hoffman and Bill Gates, fueling demands for accountability amid congressional scrutiny.

The Department of Justice released over three million pages of Epstein-related documents on January 30, more than a month after a congressionally mandated December 2025 deadline. This massive dump stems from bipartisan pressure in Congress to uncover the full extent of Epstein’s elite network, including potential blackmail and influence operations.

Central to this is the House Oversight Committee’s investigation, led by Chairman James Comer. The probe aims to question high-profile individuals tied to Epstein, with depositions and potential public testimonies designed to expose any wrongdoing or cover-ups. 

Comer has already secured agreements from Bill and Hillary Clinton to testify, and signaled that Gates is likely next, amid allegations of affairs, STDs, and deeper entanglements detailed in the files.

Epstein emailed Krauss: “I saw you did the Joe Rogan show, can you introduce me, I think he’s funny.”

Krauss responded: “I will reach out to Rogan. I think I have his email, or at least his producer’s email. He lives and works in L.A.”

But Rogan, after Googling Epstein, rejected the idea outright.

On his podcast, Rogan recounted: “I’m in the [Epstein] files for not going. One of my guests was trying to get me to meet him. I was like, ‘B*tch, are you high?!’”

He added that upon the approach, his response was: “What the f*ck are you talking about?”

Krauss then apologized to Epstein in an email: “Sorry about Rogan so far. He seems MORE TIMID than I would have thought.”

Rogan’s decision came years after Epstein’s 2008 plea deal for sex crimes, but before his 2019 arrest. A basic search revealed the red flags that apparently escaped—or were ignored by—many in Silicon Valley and beyond.

This integrity contrasts sharply with Reid Hoffman, the LinkedIn co-founder and major Democrat donor. As we previously reported in our coverage of David Sacks’ exposé, Hoffman is mentioned over 2,600 times in the Epstein files. 

The records show a multiyear relationship, with Hoffman visiting Epstein’s infamous island, New York townhouse, and New Mexico ranch. They conducted deals together and referred to each other as “very good friends.”

Sacks slammed The New York Times for downplaying Hoffman’s ties while targeting right-leaning tech figures like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel.

Similarly, Bill Gates faces mounting pressure. Comer confirmed Gates will likely be subpoenaed for questioning under oath, following revelations of emails alleging an affair and STD contracted via Epstein’s network. Gates’ spokesperson denies the claims, but the probe presses on.

Rogan’s story highlights how everyday diligence could have derailed Epstein’s web, yet partisan protections seemingly shielded left-leaning elites. 

As the Oversight Committee’s work continues, these disclosures chip away at institutional rot, demanding equal justice regardless of political allegiance.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 16:20

US Consumer Debt Delinquencies Soar To Highest Since 2017 While Office Delinquencies Hit Record High

It will come as a surprise to exactly nobody that the Fed's latest quarterly Household Debt and Credit report (for Q4 2025) reported total household debt balances increased by $191 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, a 1% rise from 2025 Q3, to a new all-time high. Balances now stand at $18.8 trillion and have increased by $4.6 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession. 

This is how various debt balances changed through the quarter: 

• Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports grew by $98 billion during the fourth quarter of 2025 and totaled $13.17 trillion at the end of December.
• Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) rose by $12 billion, the 15th consecutive quarterly increase.There is now $433 billion in outstanding HELOC balances, $116 billion above the low reached in 2022Q1. In total, non-housing balances increased by $81 billion, a 1.6% increase from 2025Q3.
• Credit card balances rose by $44 billion during the fourth quarter and now total $1.28 trillion outstanding, up 5.5% since last year.
• Student loan balances increased by $11 billion and now stand at $1.66 trillion.
• Auto loan balances edged up by $12 billion to $1.66 trillion.
• Other balances, which include retail cards and consumer finance loans, rose by $14 billion and now total $564 billion.

New debt originations were also solid in the quarter:

• The volume of mortgage originations, which includes both refinance and purchase originations, increased with $524 billion newly originated in 2025 Q4, an uptick from the $512 billion seen in the previous quarter. It was the highest since 2022 when rates were far lower. 

• There were $181 billion in new auto loans and leases appearing on credit reports during the fourth quarter, a small dip from the $184 billion observed in 2025 Q3.

• Aggregate limits on credit cards continued to rise, with a $95 billion (1.6%) uptick in the fourth quarter.
• Home equity lines of credit (HELOC) limits rose by $25 billion (2.5%), continuing an expansion in HELOC limits that began in 2022.

• Credit quality of newly originated mortgages held steady, while auto loans loosened slightly. The median credit score for new mortgage originations was 775 in 2025Q4, unchanged from 2025 Q3 while the tenth percentile declined from 660 to 650. For auto loans, the median credit score edged down, from 724 to 716. 

Taking a closer look at some of the negative changes below the surface, delinquency rates on loans ranging from mortgages to credit cards rose to 4.8% of all outstanding US household debt in the fourth quarter, up 0.3% sine Q3 2025 and the highest level since 2017, driven by higher defaults among low-income and young borrowers.

As Bloomberg notes, while the overall share of loans in some stage of default is near pre-pandemic averages, the rise in delinquencies among the lowest earners adds to evidence of an increasingly K-shaped economy, and nowhere was it more obvious than in the case of student loans - where with the Biden repayment moratorium has been over for the past year - we have seen a tsunami of both early delinquencies, with 16.3% of student-loan debt became delinquent in Q4 the biggest increase on record in data going back to 2004...

... and serious delinquencies (effectively defaults)...

... led by 50+ year-old "students" (almost certainly of the liberal major, blue-haired anti-ICE, variety).

The rise in defaults was also driven by delinquencies in mortgage payments, and New York Fed researchers found that they were particularly high in lower income zip codes.

“As household debt levels grow modestly, mortgage delinquencies continue to increase,” said Wilbert van der Klaauw, an economic research advisor at the New York Fed, said in a press release accompanying the figures. “Delinquency rates for mortgages are near historically normal levels, but the deterioration is concentrated in lower-income areas and in areas with declining home prices.”

The increased struggle in low-income and young borrowers’ ability to pay their loans is consistent with elevated unemployment rates among some parts of the population, the NY Fed researchers added. The jobless rate for workers 16 to 24 years old stood at 10.4% in December, near the highest levels since the depths of the pandemic in 2021, and largely the result of AI disruption. 

But if the Fed is concerned about the soaring debt delinquencies now, just wait  a few years until a third of all jobs are replaced by hallucinating chat bots, and the overall unemployment rate is 15%, something we discussed earlier. At that point the question will not be whether Kevin Warsh will shrink the balance sheet - he never will - but whether the coming Universal Basic Income money printing will be measured in the trillions or quadrillions. 

But wait, there's more: because chatbot algos do not need an office - and the workers they displace no longer need an office - the spiked in post-covid office defaults is back, and according to commercial real estate specialist Trepp, the CMBS delinquency rate increased again in
January 2026, climbing 17 basis points to a record 7.47%.

The increase was driven by a net increase in delinquent loans of almost $1.6 billion, primarily driven by the office sector.  For the second straight month, three of the five major property types saw increases to their delinquency rates, while two pulled back, although the mix was different in January.

The largest rate increase was in office, which rose 103 basis points to an all-time high of 12.34%. The previous high was 11.76% back in October last year. The second largest rate increase was multifamily’s, which seesawed back up by 30 basis points in January to 6.94%, following a decrease of similar magnitude of 34 basis points the month prior.

January’s balance of newly delinquent loans totaled just under $5.4 billion, while over $2.6 billion of delinquent loans cured over the same period, and $1.1 billion of delinquent loans paid off, resulting in a net delinquency increase of about $1.6 billion.

The office sector was the largest net contributor to the increase in the delinquency rate, while a large lodging loan that cured in January helped to offset some of the increase in the headline delinquency rate.

It gets worse: if we were to include loans that are beyond their maturity date but current on interest (delinquency status of performing matured balloon), the delinquency rate would be 9.14%, up 39 basis points from December. That is also 167 basis points higher than the headline rate of 7.47%, highlighting ongoing maturity-related stress.

Bottom line: at some point the AI revolution may well lead to a productivity revolution, but to get there the US will first go through a mass layoff wave, resulting in tens if not hundreds of millions of layoffs (a 15% unemployment rate to go with the 15% growth rate), coupled with a historic debt crisis and a collapse in virtually every commercial real estate sector while Blackstone buys up all the residential real estate it has had its eyes on for the past decade. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 15:45

Vitalik Buterin Calls For Ethereum-Led Alternative To The 'Race For AGI'

Authored by Vismaya V via Decrypt.co,

The Ethereum co-founder has outlined a four-quadrant Ethereum-AI buildout spanning private AI use, agent markets, and governance.

In brief

• Vitalik Buterin said Monday the very frame of “work on AGI” is flawed and called for AI development guided by decentralization, privacy, verification, and human empowerment.

• He outlined an Ethereum-linked roadmap focused on local LLMs, zero-knowledge payments for private AI API usage, and cryptographic privacy, among other key areas.

• Buterin’s approach contrasts with the AGI acceleration narratives from major AI labs, focusing on safer, Ethereum-based AI coordination.

Vitalik Buterin is calling for a different path in artificial intelligence—one that rejects a blind “race to AGI” and instead relies on Ethereum-style decentralization, verification, and privacy as guardrails for the AI era.

“The frame of ‘work on AGI’ itself contains an error,” Ethereum co-founder Buterin wrote in a post on X Monday, noting that the goal is often treated as an undifferentiated race where the main distinction is simply “that you get to be the one at the top.” 

He compared the phrase to vaguely describing Ethereum as just “working in finance” or “working on computing,” saying it obscures more important questions about direction and values.

Buterin said AI and crypto are too often approached from “completely separate philosophical perspectives,” and urged builders to integrate them. 

Instead of raw acceleration, AI development should focus on systems that “foster human freedom and empowerment” and ensure “the world does not blow up,” Buterin wrote, echoing his defensive-acceleration, or d/acc, framework.

Joni Pirovich, founder and CEO of Crystal aOS, told Decrypt, “Ethereum becoming the default settlement layer for AI-to-AI interactions is realistic.

It's less about 'accelerating AGI' and more about providing the necessary rails and guardrails for agentic commerce, trade, and investing. 

Trust and coordination, especially at the technology infrastructure and compliance infrastructure levels, are even more important now than ever.”

The comments land as major AI firms continue to publicly push toward AGI and superintelligence, with leading labs describing rapid progress in autonomous agents and advanced models. 

Buterin claims his alternative centers on safer, more verifiable infrastructure rather than larger models, outlining a practical roadmap in which Ethereum plays a central, though not exclusive, role. 

That includes local LLM tooling, zero-knowledge payments that let users call AI APIs without linking identity across requests, stronger cryptographic privacy, and client-side verification of AI services and attestations.

“Using Ethereum as an economic layer for AI-to-AI interaction is also directionally correct, but it will live mostly on rollups and app-specific L2s,” Midhun Krishna M, co-founder and CEO of LLM cost tracker TknOps.io, told Decrypt. 

Decentralized agent economies need programmable deposits, usage-based payments, and on-chain dispute resolution, Krishna said, adding that AI-augmented governance will require “identity, reputation, and stake-weighted accountability, not just better interfaces.”

Breaking it down

Vitalik grouped the Ethereum–AI design space into a four-part framework, illustrated as a 2x2 chart, spanning infrastructure vs. impact and survive vs. thrive outcomes. 

• One quadrant centers on tooling for trustless and private AI interaction, including local LLMs, zero-knowledge payments for anonymous API calls, cryptographic privacy upgrades, and client-side verification of AI services, TEE attestations, and proofs.

• Another quadrant positions Ethereum as an economic layer for AI activity, supporting API payments, bot-to-bot hiring, security deposits, on-chain dispute resolution, and AI reputation standards, such as proposed ERC-based models, aimed at enabling decentralized agent coordination rather than in-house platform control.

• A third focus revives the cypherpunk “don’t trust, verify” vision through local LLM assistants that can propose transactions, audit smart contracts, interpret formal verification proofs, and interact with apps without relying on centralized interfaces. 

• A fourth targets upgraded prediction markets, quadratic voting, and governance systems.

The comments echo a split that surfaced last year between Buterin and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who said his company was confident it knew how to build AGI and that AI agents could soon “join the workforce,” while Buterin promoted crypto-based safety rails and coordinated control mechanisms.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 15:25

California Power Bills Soar 39% As Wildfires and Policies Drive Costs

California residents have experienced the steepest rise in electricity costs in the nation, with average bills climbing 39% over the past six years, according to UC Berkeley’s Haas Energy Institute. Researchers link the surge to wildfire-related expenses and long-standing policy decisions that shifted more costs onto consumers, according to the NY Post.

“I represent a working-class district in Orange County, and constant utility rate increases mean incessant pressure for constituents to make ends meet,” Assemblymember Tri Ta told The Center Square.

He added, “I am very concerned about the cost of utilities in California. The main driver of our high costs are public policy decisions that were made long before I joined the Legislature but am tackling now.”

The Post writes that the increases come on top of California’s already high living costs, with families spending about $30,000 more than the national average on basic needs, according to the Transparency Foundation.

Analysts say utilities have been allowed to pass wildfire prevention and recovery expenses, infrastructure upgrades, and renewable energy investments directly to customers. Subsidies for rooftop solar have also shifted costs onto households without panels, according to UC Berkeley professor Severin Borenstein.

Elsewhere in the country, electricity prices generally tracked inflation from 2019 to 2025 or even declined. States such as Arizona, Minnesota, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, and North Carolina saw increases of just 1%, while rates fell in Nevada, Iowa, Alaska, Kansas, and South Carolina, the study found.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 15:05

A Market Crash And Recession Are Bullish, Not Bearish

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

This isn't "Capitalism," it's Model Collapse ushering in the inevitable conflagration.

One of the most peculiar hyper-normalized hallucinations about "Capitalism" is that markets and the economy "should always go up" and if they don't, something is terribly wrong and somebody better do something to fix it.

Remarkably, this hyper-normalized hallucination is the exact opposite of real-world "Capitalism," which relies on the periodic clearing of excesses of debt, leverage and speculation as its essential mechanism of self-correction and adaptation. If these are stripped out, "Capitalism" fails as a system.

The two charts of the NASDAQ stock index below illustrate the astounding divide between a real-world understanding of "Capitalism" and the hyper-normalized hallucination of always goes up "Capitalism."

Various justifications are trotted out to support the "markets and GDP should always go up" narrative:

1. There's always a Bull Market somewhere. In other words, the market and "growth" are always going up somewhere, and so rotating out of flat sectors into growing sectors enables markets to always go up.

2. The economy can no longer survive a market crash or recession, and so we can't allow either to happen. Spoiler alert: If the market and economy cannot survive self-correction, then "Capitalism" as a system has already failed.

3. The Federal Reserve has mastered the art of manipulating--oops, I mean managing--the market and economy via adjusting the dials of liquidity, stimulus, money supply, cost of credit, etc. As a happy result of their god-like financial powers, markets and GDP will never go down again, barring an alien invasion or asteroid strike.

These justifications overlook the need for systems to self-correct self-reinforcing excesses that reflect the inevitable self-reinforcing human emotions: greed / confidence and doubt / fear: soaring markets generate demand for more credit and leverage to boost higher risk gambles which in the euphoria of the bubble are perceived as guaranteed to win rather than guaranteed to fail.

Given that the core functions of capitalism require feedback that correct / clear excesses, these justifications are incoherent. Dynamic systems such as capitalism don't remain in a steady state; they are constantly in motion, and humanity's herd instinct and built-in attraction to windfalls will inevitably generate the madness of crowds which then generate excesses of borrowing, leverage, risk and speculation, all of which must be reset via market crashes and recessions.

If corrective market crashes and recessions are not allowed (via ever higher stimulus, moral-hazard backstops of the biggest gamblers, etc.), then the system becomes increasingly brittle and dependent on hallucinations such as "markets can always go up, and so they should always go up."

Actually, excesses must be wiped out to enable markets and economies to reset organically rather than kept aloft by centrally organized manipulation. The forest fire analogy explains this: routine, periodic fires burn off the deadwood that piles up in a forest, clearing space for new growth. If these healthy fires are suppressed, the deadwood (debt, leverage, speculation, moral hazard) reach dangerous extremes: when a fire finally ignites, the conflagration consumes the entire forest.

This is how markets clear excesses of speculation and risk: they crash 80% and reset over a period of years. Though the crash is naturally viewed as disastrously bearish by those absorbing the losses, it's ultimately bullish for the economy and market, as suppressing the self-correction generates system collapse.

This is how the incoherent, system-failure hallucination views this bullish process: quick, do more of what crippled the system to maintain the illusion that "Capitalism" is "markets always go up."

This isn't "Capitalism," it's Model Collapse ushering in the inevitable conflagration.

*  *  *

My new book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free). Check out my updated Books and Films. Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 14:45

What GAO Found Each year, the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) processes millions of applications and petitions for persons seeking to visit or reside in the U.S. or become citizens. USCIS's Fraud Detection and National Security Directorate (FDNS) leads the agency’s efforts to combat fraud. In September 2022, GAO reported that USCIS could better ensure its antifraud efforts are effective and efficient by taking a strategic and risk-based approach that aligns with leading practices in three areas of GAO’s Framework for Managing Fraud Risks in Federal Programs (see figure). Specifically, GAO found that USCIS had conducted fraud risk assessments for a small number of specific immigration benefits, but did not have a process for regularly conducting those assessments. In addition, GAO reported that FDNS had not developed an antifraud strategy to guide the design and implementation of antifraud activities, as well as the allocation of resources to respond to its highest-risk areas. GAO also found that FDNS had not evaluated its antifraud activities for efficiency and effectiveness. Taking action to implement these leading practices will help USCIS ensure that it is effectively preventing, detecting, and responding to potential fraud. USCIS Should Take Action in Key Areas to Manage Fraud Risks In December 2025, GAO reported that from May 2022 through September 2024, about 774,000 noncitizens were granted parole—temporary permission to stay in the U.S.—across three humanitarian parole processes for noncitizens with U.S.-based supporters. These processes included Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans; Uniting for Ukraine; and family reunification parole. USCIS was responsible for reviewing supporter applications for evidence they had sufficient financial means to support prospective parole beneficiaries and met other requirements. In early 2024, FDNS officials analyzed 2.6 million supporter applications and found that fraud risks were widespread in Uniting for Ukraine and Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans parole processes. For example, fraud indicators included supporter information belonging to deceased individuals and thousands of applications with at least one piece of fictitious supporter information. USCIS attributed the fraud risks to insufficient internal controls in its supporter vetting process—for example, not having automated processes to prevent or detect possible fraudulent activity. DHS has since suspended or terminated the processes. However, GAO found that USCIS has not developed an internal control plan for new or changed programs in the future. Such a plan could include basic antifraud controls and mechanisms to help proactively identify and mitigate fraud risks. Why GAO Did This Study Granting immigration benefits to individuals with fraudulent claims can jeopardize the integrity of the immigration system by enabling individuals to remain in the U.S. and potentially apply for certain federal benefits or pursue a path to citizenship. In 2022 and 2023, DHS introduced new processes for humanitarian parole in response to increases in noncitizens arriving at the southwest border. The processes allowed eligible noncitizens from certain countries to travel to the U.S. to seek a grant of parole. To be eligible, noncitizens had to have a U.S.-based supporter apply to financially support them. As of December 2025, DHS had suspended or terminated the processes. This statement discusses USCIS efforts to manage fraud risks (1) across immigration benefits it adjudicates and (2) in humanitarian parole processes for noncitizens with U.S.-based supporters. This statement is based primarily on our September 2022 and December 2025 reports on these topics.

What GAO Found The Marine Corps and Air Force had higher rates of the most serious accidents in the last 2 fiscal years (2023 and 2024) with its Osprey aircraft compared with the average serious accident rate for the previous 8 years, based on available Department of Defense (DOD) data. In fiscal years 2023 and 2024, 18 serious, non-combat accidents occured involving death; permanent disability; extensive hospitalization; property damage of $600,000 or more; or a destroyed aircraft. Rates of serious accidents were between 36 percent and 88 percent higher than each service's average rate for the prior 8 fiscal years. Percent Difference of Serious Osprey Accident Rates in Fiscal Years 2023 and 2024 Compared to Service Average for Fiscal Years 2015–2022 Note: The accident rate equals the number of accidents per year divided by the number of flight hours per year and then multiplied by 100,000. Serious accidents refer to combined Class A and B accidents which are those accidents that involved death; permanent disability; extensive hospitalization; property damages of $600,000 or more; or a destroyed aircraft. The Navy had not experienced a Class A or Class B accident with its Osprey variant since it began operational use in fiscal year 2021 through fiscal year 2024. Rates of serious accidents with the Osprey aircraft generally exceeded those of the Departments of the Navy and Air Force fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft fleets for fiscal year 2015 through fiscal year 2024. Serious Accident Rate Comparisons for Marine Corps and Air Force Osprey with Departments of the Navy and Air Force Fixed Wing and Rotary Wing Fleets, Fiscal Years 2015–2024 Note: Serious accidents refer to combined Class A and B accidents which are those accidents that involved death; permanent disability; extensive hospitalization; property damages of $600,000 or more; or a destroyed aircraft. Most reported causes for serious accidents related to materiel failure of airframe or engine components and human error during aircraft operations or maintenance, according to GAO's analysis of safety data. Osprey program stakeholders have not fully identified, analyzed, or responded with procedural or materiel mitigations to all safety risks. For example, program stakeholders, which include the Osprey Joint Program Office and military services that operate the aircraft, had closed 45 risk assessments at the time of our review, but had not fully responded to 34 known system-related risks related to the potential failure of airframe and engine components. Stakeholders also had not identified actions to respond to non-system safety risks associated with aircraft maintenance and operations, such as mismatches in maintenance skill levels and limited training time to build aircrew experience. Without refining the joint program's process for identifying, analyzing, and responding to Osprey safety risks to incorporate and prioritize system and non-system safety risks, program stakeholders cannot adequately mitigate risks that can contribute to death, injury, or loss of mission capability and resources. Program stakeholders described factors that affected their ability to fully resolve Osprey safety risks, including challenges with how program stakeholders developed priorities and plans for addressing safety issues. These stakeholders identified costly, long-term engineering solutions and safety improvements that were required across a joint program with varied fleet sizes, which created longer risk mitigation timelines. GAO found that the median age for 28 unresolved serious and medium system risks was about 9 years, and over half (17 of 28) had been unresolved for between 6 and 14 years. Summary and Median Age of Unresolved Osprey System Safety Risk Assessments, by Assessment Type as of June 2025 Note: The Department of Defense (DOD) designates risk assessments as serious and medium based on their assessment of the severity (e.g., catatsrophic) and frequency (e.g., remote). The figure does not include six additional risk assessments for general military aviation risks (e.g., bird strikes) that are not specific to the Osprey and have been accepted for the life of the program. New initiatives established in 2024 are intended to address several of these factors, but these efforts did not comprehensively address non-system safety risks or include information for each service's Osprey variant. Without determining an oversight structure with clearly defined roles and responsibilities for resolving known safety risks or conducting periodic reviews of efforts to resolve them, DOD cannot have reasonable assurance that program stakeholders will fully resolve the interrelated system and non-system safety risks affecting the Osprey. GAO found that the Osprey program stakeholders have not routinely shared information in three areas to promote the safe operation of the aircraft.  Hazard and accident reporting. Program stakeholders have not proactively shared hazard and accident reporting information with Osprey units and unit safety personnel in the other services that operate the aircraft. Determining a process to proactively share relevant safety information with these personnel would provide greater assurance that Osprey units have the information needed to update their safety procedures. Aircraft knowledge and emergency procedures. Program stakeholders did not convene a multi-service conference or other forum to share Osprey aircraft knowledge and emergency procedures for 5 years (from 2020 to 2025). Service-specific changes to operational practices included safety related information, but these changes were not readily shared among the services, according to unit personnel with whom GAO spoke. The military services that operate the aircraft held a conference in May 2025, but they had not formalized plans to continue to do so. Without such a routine method, Osprey units have missed out on opportunities to share information that would enhance the safe operations of the aircraft. Maintenance data for common aircraft components and parts. Program stakeholders have taken steps to address maintenance data integrity issues for the hundreds of common Osprey aircraft components and parts that are shared across the services, but they have yet to confirm that all implementation steps have been completed. Without conducting a comprehensive review of Osprey maintenance guidance and inspection procedures, program stakeholders do not have assurance that efforts to improve maintenance information sharing have resolved data integrity issues, including for critical life-limited Osprey components, which has hindered their ability to ensure the safe operation of the aircraft. Why GAO Did This Study This testimony summarizes the information contained in GAO's December 2025 report, entitled Osprey Aircraft: Additional Oversight and Information Sharing Would Improve Safety Effort (GAO-26-107285). For more information, contact Diana Moldafsky at moldafskyd@gao.gov.

Indians Bought More Gold Than Stocks In January, Goldman Sees Pros Buying Long-Dated Calls

The near-vertical surge in precious metals (arguably driven by speculative demand from China) came to a swift halt at the end of January, when silver suffered its biggest daily drop on record and gold plunged the most since 2013. 

As Goldman's top futures trader, Robert Quinn, points out (in a note available at out MarketDesk.ai portal to professional subscribers), according to Commitment of Traders reports, Managed Money sold a record amount of Gold futures surrounding month-end.

The report covering January 27th - February 3rd, which included a -11.4% drop post Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair, displayed-$13.7bn of Managed Money selling, driven mostly by liquidation (-$12.1bn).

This marked a 10 year notional record and corroborated the plummet in aggregate open interest.

Over subsequent sessions, elevated price volatility caused additional long unwinds, consistent with flow models for systematic investors.

From February 3rd - 5th, Gold price and open interest lost -0.9% and -$4.3bn respectively. GS Futures Strategists' CTA model estimated some Gold selling. Similarly, the risk parity framework projected widespread commodity liquidation.

However bulls eventually returned alongside renewed Dollar weakness.

After initially proving resilient through Mega-Cap Tech weakness, the broad Dollar index lost -1.0% during February 5th -9th, enabling a +3.9% Gold bounce.

Catalysts included the US administration's signaling of an imminent soft labor report plus Chinese regulators' advice to curb holdings of US Treasuries.

Gold aggregate open interest regained +$2.7bn. Moreover, normalized 25 delta put-call skew cheapened across the curve.

Meanwhile, UBS points out that Silver ETFs have now been sold so heavily in 2026 that it has erased all net buying in 2025...

Many of the factors that underpinned the multiyear rally — heightened geopolitical risks, elevated central-bank buying and lower interest rates — remain in play.

“The recent bout of volatility has called into question the value of gold as a hedge against geopolitical and market swings,” Mark Haefele, global wealth management chief investment officer at UBS Group AG, wrote in a note. 

“We believe such worries are overdone, and that the rally in gold will resume.” 

Many other banks and asset managers, including Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs, have backed a recovery in bullion.

Underscoring resilient official demand, the Chinese central bank extended its gold buying to a 15th month in January, and Kazakhstan's central bank bought 66 tons of gold last year, becoming the world's second-largest buyer of the metal, Governor Timur Suleimenov told President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, boosting overall gold reserves to 345 tons.

Away from the big banks, retail is well and truly involved as Bloomberg reports that Indian investors poured more money into gold exchange-traded funds than equity mutual funds in January, a rare crossover that highlights sustained demand for bullion despite a record-setting surge fueled by geopolitical and monetary risks.

Net inflows into gold ETFs surged to a record 240.4 billion rupees ($2.65 billion), slightly higher than stock fund inflows of 240.3 billion rupees, according to data released Tuesday by the Association of Mutual Funds in India.

The milestone marks one of the strongest monthly endorsements of bullion by local investors in recent years.

“Investors are shifting allocations toward gold against the backdrop of a relatively lacklustre year for equity and stellar returns posted by gold in the same period,” said Nirav Karkera, head of research at Fisdom, a wealth management platform. 

Investment demand for gold will likely stay firm, at least until clarity emerges on the macroeconomic front, he added.

As Bloomberg highlights, the move reflects a wider global pattern.

Gold ETF holdings worldwide remain near a more than three-year high, even after a pullback in prices last week, as the drivers behind the blistering rally - including elevated geopolitical risk and waning confidence in sovereign bonds and currencies - remain in place.

It's not just central banks and retail that are getting (staying) bulled up again. As Goldman concludes, even longer-term investors potentially re-engaged.

As realized volatility subsided, 1 month and 3 month implied volatility also declined. 

However 1 year implied volatility continued to richen and remained near local highs. 

Thus, Goldman's Quinn concludes, long-dated call buying likely manifested.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 13:20

Foreign Demand In 3Y Auction Drops As Direct Bid Hits Record High

It is refunding week, which means we get the usual staple of 3, 10 and 30Y auctions. And moments ago, the Treasury just concluded the first of three coupon sales when it sold $58BN in 3 Year paper in a very strong auction.

The auction stopped at a high yield of 3.518%, down from 3.609% in January and the lowest yield since Sept 2025; the auction also stopped through the 3.519% When Issued b 0.1bps, the 6th consecutive stop through for the 3Y tenor.

The bid to cover was a bit disappointing at 2.624, down from 2.650 in January and below the recent average of 2.676. 

Internals were also notable, with Indirects awarded 57.15%, up from 56.50% but well below the recent average of 63.73%. And with Dealers holding 10.94%, that left Directs with a whopping 31.92%, up from 29.50% and the highest on record. This curious dynamic - declining Indirects offset by rising Directs - has been a staple for coupon auctions for the past several years now and we see it accelerating in the future, especially if foreign reserve managers rotate away from the US. 

Overall, this was a solid auction, yet one where the drop in foreign demand was notable, even if offset by record direct buyers

The lack of major surprise explains why 10Y yields barely budged after the auction prices just after 1pm ET.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 13:19

US No Longer Wants To Pursue Its Own Ukraine Peace Proposal, Kremlin Charges

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said in an interview published on Monday that the US no longer wants to implement a Ukraine peace deal that it previously proposed, the latest sign that there's little chance the grinding war will come to an end anytime soon.

Lavrov claimed that the US and Russia came to an agreement on Ukraine during President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s summit in Anchorage, Alaska, back in August 2025. He didn’t elaborate on the details of the potential deal, but it's believed to involve Ukraine ceding territory it still controls in the Donbas, a condition included in a 28-point peace plan that was later drafted by the Trump administration.

via CNN

"In other words, we were told that the Ukrainian issue must be resolved. In Anchorage, we accepted the United States’ proposal. To put it straightforwardly, they proposed, and we agreed – the problem should be solved," Lavrov told TV BRICS.

"The position of the United States was important for us. Having accepted their proposals, we essentially fulfilled the task of resolving the Ukrainian issue and moving toward comprehensive, broad, mutually beneficial cooperation."

The Russian diplomat said that despite the "positive" summit, the US began imposing sanctions on Russia a few weeks later and has continued the economic pressure.

"New sanctions are imposed, attacks on tankers are staged in international waters in violation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and India and other partners are discouraged from purchasing affordable Russian energy, while Europe has long prohibited such purchases, forcing them to buy American liquefied natural gas at significantly higher prices," he said.

Lavrov added that he didn’t see a "promising future in economic terms" when it comes to US-Russia relations. "Thus, in the economic sphere, the United States has effectively declared a goal of economic domination," he said.

Elsewhere in the interview, which focused on Russia’s relationship with other BRICS nations, Lavrov said the Biden administration has turned the US dollar into a "weapon," prompting Russia and other countries to reduce their reliance on the US currency.

"Under the Biden administration, the United States has taken every step to weaponize the dollar against those it considers inconvenient," he said, adding that the policies have continued under the Trump administration.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 13:00

'Off The Charts': Retail Is Buying-The-Dip In Software Stocks Like Never Before

Starting on Friday, we have seen a sudden reversal from panic-selling to panic-buying in tech stocks, which has lifted Nasdaq back above its 100DMA...

The headline-grabbing culprit for much of the pain to the downside was Software stocks (IGV as an example of an ETF that tracks the sector), which collapsed as specifically SaaS firms faced 'existential threats' from AI disruption.

That crashed Software valuations down dramatically...

And, suddenly - starting Friday morning - buyers appeared to snap up these newly cheap stocks...

Inflows into IGV - the Software ETF - have soared...

But, the question has been - who's buying?

Well now we have the answer, thanks to Vanda Research:

1M rolling net retail inflows into the iShares Software ETF (IGV) surged to a record $176mn as of close yesterday, more than double the prior peak seen during the late-2024 software drawdown.

This is one of the more aggressive episodes of retail dip-buying in tech, and especially software, that we've observed in our dataset.

Vanda also notes that Amazon ranked as the most bought US stock by retail investors, displacing Nvidia in the last few sessions.

Last Friday, AMZN recorded its largest single-day of net retail buying since Aug 2024.

We also saw decent follow-through buying throughout the session yesterday.

This is in keeping with the theme that retail investors have been opportunistically buying the dip in mega-cap tech after any earnings-driven sell-offs (also seen in MSFT, GOOGL etc.).

The question is - can retail maintain this momentum long enough to get hedgies re-engaged in Software from their near-record low exposure levels

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 12:43

DHS Shutdown Talks Stall As Democrats Reject GOP Offer, Thune Signals Stopgap May Be Needed

With Republicans demanding election integrity, and Democrats demanding ICE reform, it looks like the Department of Homeland Security may shut down again on Friday after Democratic leaders rejected a White House-backed GOP counterproposal to keep the lights on - which may require a short-term stopgap if they can't agree on something by Friday. 

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) said the GOP proposal is “woefully inadequate” and shows the White House “is clearly not open to” several Democratic priorities aimed at tightening oversight of immigration enforcement.

Jeffries said the offer failed to address requirements for judicial warrants, detention center standards, independent investigations and excessive-force rules. Asked whether the administration would support a ban on federal agents wearing masks, Jeffries said, “That’s an open question.”

“They don’t appear to be open to … ensuring that ICE agents are identifiable in a manner consistent with every other law enforcement agency in the country,” Jeffries said, according to Politico. 

According to the Department of Homeland Security, a government shutdown would make the country less secure, affecting TSA, FEMA, ICE, and Border Patrol operations. Acting ICE Director Lyons said that task forces targeting terrorism and transnational crime would be hit hardest. 

According to Polymarket, there's currently a 74% chance of a shutdown by Saturday. 

Jeffries’ comments followed a late Monday joint statement with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), in which the two Democrats criticized the GOP response as lacking both legislative text and meaningful detail.

“The initial GOP response is both incomplete and insufficient in terms of addressing the concerns Americans have about ICE’s lawless conduct,” the leaders said. “Democrats await additional detail and text.”

The White House counteroffer on DHS funding is woefully inadequate.

Try again. pic.twitter.com/k5JIUjXLpW

— Hakeem Jeffries (@RepJeffries) February 10, 2026

Punchbowl News asked Jeffries about whether he things Republicans are serious about cutting a deal, to which he replied:

“It’s clear to me that House, Senate Republicans and the White House, they’re all on the run. These people are falling apart. They’re losing election after election. They’ve lost the public. Donald Trump is at historically low approval ratings … And so our view is dramatic reform is necessary with respect to DHS before a funding bill moves forward.”

Thune keeps CR on the table - conditionally

Republicans, meanwhile, are trying to keep negotiations alive while acknowledging the clock is running out. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said Tuesday that negotiations aren't dead, but GOP leadership is contemplating next steps if talks don’t advance quickly.

“There are things I think on probably both sides that are non-negotiables,” Thune said. “But I do think there are a number of things in the range of common ground.”

Thune said Republicans may begin laying procedural groundwork for a short-term stopgap known as a continuing resolution (CR) - framing it as a fallback option, not a foregone conclusion - if negotiations fail to produce an agreement in time. Any shutdown-averting measure would require support from at least seven Senate Democrats, he added.

The existing funding patch for DHS expires Friday. Without action, the department, which employs more than 260,000 people, would face a partial shutdown.

On the Senate floor, Schumer struck a more measured tone than Jeffries, saying Democrats “need to see more from Republicans very soon.”

“What Democrats propose is the definition of common sense,” Schumer said. “We simply want ICE to follow the same standards that most law enforcement agencies across America already follow.”

Key demands, limited overlap

While the GOP counteroffer has not been publicly detailed. But White House allies have indicated that at least one Democratic demand - requiring federal law enforcement officers to obtain judicial warrants before entering private property - is not under consideration.

Other proposals, including mask prohibitions, ID display requirements and restrictions on where ICE agents can operate, would require significant Democratic concessions to gain administration support, according to people close to the White House.

Still, the exchange of offers has given GOP leaders cautious optimism that talks could continue - particularly as senators hope to leave Washington by Thursday for the Munich Security Conference and other overseas delegations.

“It depends on whether we’re making progress or not,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) said Monday. “We’ve got some time. Hopefully people will be working to try and get something done.”

The length of any short-term funding patch, if needed, remains unresolved. GOP appropriators have pushed for at least a two-week extension, though Thune said the duration “will have to be negotiated.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 12:20

What Good Is 15% Growth If It's Matched With 15% Unemployment?

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Mr. 15%: Trump stated if Fed Chair Warsh does his job, US growth could be 15% or higher. It’s unclear if that’s annual, exceeding China’s early spurt, or over the remaining two-and-a-half years of his presidency, so higher than China today, or nominal or real. Yet the key signal for those who called Warsh a ‘hawk’ is that the Fed is going to run the economy hot. That’s as the FT notes, ‘Bash All Day, Buy All Night’, explaining “Why foreigners keep pouring money into America” despite attacking it verbally all the time.

For now, signals are ice cold and red hot. The Wall Street Journal claims ‘Job Hunters Are So Desperate That They’re Paying to Get Recruited.’ However, trucking signals point to a significant upturn ahead led by manufacturing. Already in the 15% camp is AI, where Alphabet is lining up a 100-year sterling bond sale and, as Bloomberg puts it, ‘Memory Chip Squeeze Wreaks Havoc in Markets, With More to Come.’ Relatedly, the US is reportedly to exempt Big Tech from upcoming chip tariffs, with exemptions based on FDI commitments from Taiwan’s TSMC. That shows an expected pragmatic refinement of US neo-mercantilism in line with past phases of such political economy.

In the US, AI is now being embraced by many firms in ways which may genuinely boost productivity beyond what old mindsets and models can compute. Yet not all AI is equal. Reuters warns, ‘As AI enters the operating room, reports arise of botched surgeries and misidentified body parts’; Axios adds, ‘People are using AI for legal advice and it's driving lawyers bananas.’ So should the idea of mass unemployment in many sector: what good is 15% growth if matched with 15% unemployment?

Old-fashioned oil, and other commodity constraints, will also have something to say about 15% growth. The US military is still surging into the Middle East, as Iran is reportedly ready to “dilute” its highly enriched uranium if all sanctions lifted. Yet with fresh US guidance to ships transiting Strait of Hormuz issued, markets will have to wait and see if this ends like Venezuela or with a deal (bearish oil), or like Iraq (bullish oil).

Mr. 1.5%: In Germany, Bosch is to lay off 20,000 workers as deindustrialisation snowballs, yet German rearmament continues. The latter is boosting GDP growth, but without recovery in other industries (and why assume that?), current trends project a very different German economy ahead - more so if Europe doesn’t make the weapons it rearms with. Yet as the US hands over two key NATO command posts to Europeans, ‘France and Germany’s next-generation fighter jet project is ‘dead’’.

On the broader European push to decouple from the US -- as it signs up to a US critical minerals plan which implies the complete opposite-- the FT reports ‘EU failing to implement economic fixes as single market withers’, and ‘European alternatives to Visa and Mastercard ‘urgently’ needed’; yet Politico claims this week will show ‘Macron sells a vision of ‘Made in Europe’ that Merz and Meloni aren’t buying’, while ‘European industry revolts over EU plan to weaken carbon border tax’ (Politico), which argues the opposite What is the EU grand macro strategy, exactly?

For now, it appears defensive in a different sense. As Politico also notes, ‘Bank of France chief’s surprise exit stokes suspicion among Macron’s opponents’, and the “Governor’s departure allows the French president to future-proof the central bank against a far-right government.” That’s as the Economist underlines that the far right, at 24%, is now the joint largest single faction across European elections.

Equally, while Europe is considering issuing more Eurobonds to back Euro stablecoins, and ‘has a plan to challenge the dollar’s global role’, “The sticking point is… changing established practices in third countries using dollars... As a next step, the Commission proposes to "obtain a better understanding of the obstacles for the Euro’s wider use, while fully respecting national choices regarding monetary arrangements." Markets will be very happy to explain it to them.

Mr. 1.5%: UK PM Starmer said he’s “not prepared to walk away” after calls for his resignation, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be pushed by his cabinet or the Labour Party. Former Deputy Leader Rayner, under investigation for her tax affairs, briefly had a ‘Rayner for leader’ website up, showing this process is underway. Markets are unhappy about another bout of UK political instability, combined with a possible populist left policy direction ahead.

Mr. 1.5%: In Australia, the RBA just forecasted the worst medium-term economic growth ever – 1.6% annual average through to 2028. Given expected population growth, that’s almost nothing per capita. Even if it’s the Aussie opposition, not government, that’s in turmoil for now, that may not stay the case for long.

Mr. 1.5%: Canadian PM Carney is reportedly discussing the idea of an early federal election to secure a majority. That’s as Trump threatened to bar the new US-Canada bridge from opening. One can see the election platform there already. What one cannot see is a growth model that hits even 1.5% sustainably, and per capita, if US-Canada tensions remain that high.

Mrs. 1.5%: After Japanese PM Takaichi’s landslide election win, where will she go on fiscal, defence, and foreign policy – and what will the BOJ do in response? Will we see crucial, controversial constitutional change to allow for broader rearmament and military deployment? One thing is for certain: Japan will be part of the Trumponomics geoeconomic and geopolitical nexus… and does that imply it can grow at what for it would be the giddy heights of 1.5%?

What %?: China warned its banks to reduce US Treasury holdings (selling to whom?) over worries about market volatility ahead (why now when one looks at recent vol in gold and Bitcoin, etc?). It also officially banned any form of private sector CNY stablecoins from being issued, making the dividing line with soon-to-emerge US dollar stablecoins crystal clear.

What %?: The Fed’s Waller said Trump-induced crypto euphoria may be fading, Bostic said confidence in the US dollar is coming into question, and Miran added the Fed should do QE in a crisis, but not otherwise. What constitutes a crisis?

What %?: Saudi Arabia’s $925bn sovereign wealth fund is set to announce a strategy revamp that will emphasize industry, minerals, AI, and tourism, while scaling back mega projects. That kind of investment reallocation is being seen globally in most, but not all, places: what GDP growth rates will it record in doing so?

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 12:00

Insurance Brokers Extend Monday's Plunge On Fears AI Is Coming For Them Next

The rolling AI disruption wave, which most recently crushed the software sector, slammed insurance brokers on Monday with losses extending on Tuesday, as most names in the space slumped following reports from Reinsurance News and others that OpenAI approved the first AI insurance app on ChatGPT, built by Spanish digital insurer Tuio.

The insurance brokerage space dived 9% on average on Monday in reaction to the news: among the worst performers were Willis Towers Watson which experienced the steepest decline, its shares falling 13%. Arthur J. Gallagher dropped 9.4%, while Aon shed 8.5%. Ryan Specialty and Brown & Brown fell 8% and 7% respectively, with Marsh & McLennan also down 7%. Insurer AIG saw a more modest decline of 2%.

The market reaction came after OpenAI announced that Tuio’s app, powered by WaniWani’s AI distribution infrastructure, allows ChatGPT users to receive personalized home insurance quotes directly through conversation, with purchasing capabilities coming soon. This marks the first time an insurance provider can distribute products and offer quotes directly within an AI platform.

According to OpenAI, the new capability removes traditional friction points in insurance purchasing by eliminating forms, calls, and intermediaries. Tuio’s AI app collects relevant information through natural conversation and returns personalized quotes from regulated carriers in real time, Investing.com reported.

Some investors expressed confusion about the market reaction, questioning why commercial insurance brokers were so heavily impacted when the current application focuses on home insurance. Some argued that insurance brokers dealing with specialty products might be better insulated due to the complexity of those offerings.

Banks promptly came to the sector's defense with Goldman underscoring the investor confusion, and writing that “the immediate feedback still is a degree on confusion & the top question is 'Why would this primarily impact the brokers (who primarily do commercial .. think there's only home insurance at the majors for high net worth)' .. with a few arguing it's 1) more negative for personal insurance carriers given greater price transparency/shopping/competition, and 2) Insurance brokers dealing in more specialty products should be better insulated given complexity.

UBS also was quick to defend, with analyst Brian Meredith saying he remains a buyer of the brokers and "views the pullback as an attractive entry point for his preferred broker names: Marsh, Goosehead Insurance and Willis Towers Watson."

Meredith added that concerns around broker disintermediation have been around for decades, with insurance brokers still the principal means of distribution for commercial insurance products, and independent/captive agents accounting for more than two-thirds of personal lines insurance distribution. Brian said brokers remain essential intermediaries for a complex purchasing decision.

He continues to favor the insurance brokers in 2026 as he believes growth expectations have bottomed with potential upside in a good economic environment. "Valuations are attractive on a relative and absolute basis and reflect a "soft" market."

Then again, as Goldman concludes, there's certainly a degree of 'don't fight the narrative' .. and this is all very fresh/fluid at the moment.”

And if the ongoing rout in the software space is any indication, there is much more pain to come. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 11:45

Zuckerberg Follows Billionaire Exodus To Florida As California Pushes New Wealth Tax

Once again, the pattern is familiar: raise taxes in California, and watch the private jets head east. 

Mark Zuckerberg may soon be adding Miami to his ever-growing list of luxury addresses. According to people familiar with his plans, the Meta founder and his wife, Priscilla Chan, are exploring a home on Indian Creek Island—an ultra-exclusive, heavily guarded neighborhood often called “Billionaire Bunker”, according to Bloomberg.

The tiny island is already packed with famous residents, including Jeff Bezos, Tom Brady, Jared Kushner, and Ivanka Trump.

With an estimated fortune north of $200 billion, Zuckerberg already owns multiple properties across California, Hawaii, Washington, D.C., and near Lake Tahoe. It’s not clear whether Florida would replace any of those homes or just become another stop on his real estate tour.

But the timing is telling. Bloomberg writes that California is considering a new wealth tax aimed at billionaires, including taxes on unrealized gains. The proposal has rattled investors and helped push several tech leaders out of the state. When Democratic policies start biting, it seems many billionaires suddenly “fall in love” with Florida.

Chamath Palihapitiya wrote on X: "With Zuck’s move to Florida, California’s total taxable wealth from billionaires has plummeted to well under $1T from over $2T just a few weeks ago. The loss of this tax revenue was totally avoidable but is now forever. All because Gavin Newsom stood motionless as this stupidly written bill, from a fringe union and a handful of socialist academics with an axe to grind, meandered its way into the public conversation without any action from him and freaked everyone out."

"These were all people that were paying 13%+ in state income tax every year WITH NO COMPLAINTS UNTIL A FEW WEEKS AGO. And now, for the rest of time, the lost tax revenues from these folks will have to be paid for by the middle class because they are the only group left in California large enough that you can tax to fill the hole," he continued.

With Zuck’s move to Florida, California’s total taxable wealth from billionaires has plummeted to well under $1T from over $2T just a few weeks ago.

The loss of this tax revenue was totally avoidable but is now forever. All because Gavin Newsom stood motionless as this stupidly… https://t.co/lJpzhTkMH6

— Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath) February 10, 2026

"He’s forsaken the middle class instead of managing the budget, managing the deficit, eliminating even a portion of California’s gargantuan waste and abuse. He could have done any of these things at any point over the past 7+ years. But he was silent. And now California’s budget will implode and he wants to run for President."

He isn’t alone in the migration. Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin have recently bought expensive homes in South Florida, adding to the region’s growing reputation as Silicon Valley’s backup headquarters.

Indian Creek remains one of the most exclusive spots in the country, with private security, limited access, and a golf course at its center—perfect for executives who prefer their privacy and their taxes equally protected.

Zuckerberg has also been spending more time around former President Donald Trump, visiting Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach on several occasions.

Meanwhile, California’s proposed ballot measure would impose a one-time 5% tax on billionaires to fund social programs. In response, wealthy donors have poured millions into campaigns opposing it. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 11:20