Justice Dept About To Issue Subpoenas To John Brennan From DC & FL Grand Juries; Fox News Reports

Authored by 'sundance' via TheConservativeTreehouse.com,

I would not get too spun up about this yet because investigators and reviewers in/around Washington DC, have a ton of catching up to do on the material evidence against former CIA Director John Brennan.

Additionally, there is an institutional aversion to targeting anything to do with the CIA because the information needed for most direct evidence is behind a legislative authorized locked door.

FBI building, left – Main Justice (DOJ) building on right

That said, Fox News is reporting that a grand jury in DC and/or FL is potentially going to be used to issue subpoenas against John Brennan.

The primary issue surrounds Brennan telling congress in 2023 the “Steele Dossier” was not used in the 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA), and current DNI Tulsi Gabbard releasing evidence proving it was.

(Fox News) – Justice Department officials in Miami and Washington, D.C., are actively preparing to issue several grand jury subpoenas relating to an investigation into former CIA Director John Brennan, Fox News has learned.

U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Florida Jason Reding Quiñones is supervising the probe; Fox News is told.

Last month, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, referred Brennan to the DOJ, saying that the former CIA chief “willfully and intentionally” made false statements to Congress.

Jordan accused Brennan of lying in his 2023 Judiciary Committee testimony by denying that the CIA used the Steele dossier in prepping the 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) on Russian election interference, and falsely claiming the CIA opposed including the dossier. (more)

President Trump’s January Executive Order says in part, “The Director of National Intelligence, in consultation with the heads of the appropriate departments and agencies within the Intelligence Community, shall take all appropriate action to review the activities of the Intelligence Community over the last 4 years and identify any instances where the Intelligence Community’s conduct appears to have been contrary to the purposes and policies of this order, and prepare a report to be submitted to the President, through the Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and the National Security Advisor, with recommendations for appropriate remedial actions to be taken to fulfill the purposes and policies of this order.”  {source}

DNI Tulsi Gabbard has been working on this for nine months.

Tulsi Gabbard retrieved and released a host of documents relating to the fraudulent ICA construct, including the use of the Steele Dossier.  Gabbard also declassified and released the email from former DNI James Clapper who was pressuring NSA Director Admiral Mike Rogers to go along with the team goal, and blame Russia:

“Understand your concern. It is essential that we (CIA/NSA/FBI/ODNI) be on the same page, and are all supportive of the report -in the highest tradition of “That’s OUR story, and we’re stickin’ to it.”  This evening CIA has provided to the NIC the complete draft generated by the ad hoc fusion cell. We will facilitate as much mutual transparency as possible as we complete the report, but, more time is not negotiable. We may have to compromise our “normal” modalities, since we must do this on such a compressed schedule.  This is one project that has to be a team sport.”

DNI James Clapper, December 22, 2016

Remember, on July 20, 2025, DNI Tulsi Gabbard gave this interview.  

Within the interview, Tulsi Gabbard emphasizes how important it is for the people who engaged in a treasonous conspiracy to be held accountable.  Gabbard notes there are now whistleblowers from within the IC agencies who have come forward to discuss how the intelligence apparatus was intentionally weaponized.

In her opinion as expressed, there is enough direct evidence now available to the Dept of Justice to begin criminal indictments against all of the participants.

DNI Tulsi Gabbard outlines how the documents released show how the Obama administration actively engaged the Intelligence Community to fabricate a false and malicious conspiracy against the incoming Trump administration.

I like how within the interview Director Gabbard emphasizes within her role she is able to reach into each of the eighteen intelligence agencies and extract documents that pertain to singular issues, in this case the role of Russia in the 2016 election. 

This cross-silo investigative ability is why the DNI office is so important to revealing information from within individual silos.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 11:45

ASP Isotopes Jumps After Investment By Trump's Boys

One month ago we discussed why isotope-developer ASP Isotopes (ASPI) is emerging as one of the nascent "nuclear" plays to provide fuel for the AI energy renaissance. It appears that Trump's kids read what we wrote.

This morning, just before the open, ASP Isotopes (ASPI) announced a private placement for convertible notes of their advanced materials subsidiary Quantum Leap Energy (QLE), in which investors would be none other than the Trump boys.

Eric and Donald Jr participated in the private placement led by American Ventures LLC (a fund run by Dominari Holdings CEO Soo Yu which has done work with the Trumps before) and ASPI for over $60 million of convertible notes for QLE. The subsidiary is due to be spun out of ASPI by the end of the year. An update on official dates is expected to be provided in the earnings report coming up on November 18th.

Source

QLE is developing the technology for enriching select isotopes with lasers, said to be significantly more efficient and cheaper than current centrifuge enrichment technology. In particular, the company looks to enrich uranium up to just below the 20% U-235 threshold to provide advanced reactors with the High-Assay Low Enriched Uranium (HALEU) needed to fuel those designs. QLE recently signed an agreement to develop advanced materials and HALEU enrichment facilities at the Fermi project in Texas.

As regular readers know, the current supply of HALEU outside of Russia is extremely limited - not dissimilar to the throttled rare earth supply-chains that are plaguing the Trump admin - and driving increased pressure for the US government to assist in pushing domestic capacity expansion.

This news of Trump’s children involvement in the company is even more interesting considering the recent acquisition of the voting rights for Sky Builders was revealed to also involve Eric and Donald Jr. American Ventures LLC joined ASPI in purchasing the majority voting rights in the company with the stated intention of using SKBL to purchase a critical materials company to be wholly-owned by QLE. Through their ownership and involvement in Dominari Holdings, the Trump boys were also involved in the purchase via American Ventures.

The news of the Trump family's involvement sent the stock of ASPI sharply higher, reversing what was poised to be a big drop this morning.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 11:37

Obama-Appointed Judge Restricts Trump's Use Of Tear Gas, Other Anti-Riot Measures In Chicago

A federal judge has restricted the federal government’s use of tear gas and other types of anti-riot measures in Chicago.

On Thursday, Obama-appointed U.S. District Judge Sara Ellis said during a hearing that government witnesses’ claims of violence at protests in Chicago were not credible, citing several occasions where she said video recordings contradicted immigration officials’ accounts about what happened.

“The government would have people believe instead that the Chicagoland area is in a visehold of violence, ransacked by rioters, and attacked by agitators,” she said.

“That simply is untrue.”

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in a statement from a spokesperson on the ruling described protesters in the city as “rioters, gangbangers and terrorists” who pose a threat to federal agents.

“Despite these real dangers, our law enforcement shows incredible restraint in exhausting all options before force is escalated,” the DHS spokesperson said, noting that the government would appeal the decision.

The spokesperson described the injunction as “an extreme act by an activist judge that risks the lives and livelihoods of law enforcement officers.”

As Joseph Lord reports for The Epoch Times, Ellis has seen at least one of her earlier rulings related to immigration enforcement in the city overruled, and this latest ruling could face similar challenges if the judge is found to have overstepped her authority by an appellate court. If it isn’t overturned in a higher court, Ellis’s ruling will stay in effect as proceedings related to this issue move forward.

The court hearing comes amid escalating showdowns between protestors opposed to the administration’s immigration enforcement operations and federal agents in America’s third-largest city.

For weeks, protestors and civil liberties groups have alleged that tactics used by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) have become increasingly aggressive in the city.

Ellis agreed with these allegations in her ruling, finding that the government’s use of force in several cases wasn’t merited by the circumstances on the ground.

Court Order

Ellis ordered the federal government to restrict the use of anti-riot measures against peaceful protestors and members of the press.

The preliminary injunction granted by Ellis restricts agents from using items such as tear gas and pepper balls, “unless such force is objectively necessary” to prevent “an immediate threat.”

It also bars agents from using physical force, including shoving, against protestors and journalists, and requires agents to give two verbal warnings before using riot control weapons.

The order comes after days of testimony about Chicagoans’ encounters with federal agents.

During hours of proceedings on Wednesday, Ellis heard testimony from multiple protestors, journalists, and members of the clergy who said they had been subjected to tear gassing and pepper balls from federal agents during protests in the city.

Witnesses gave testimony about alleged violent encounters with federal agents outside an immigrant detention center in Broadview, Illinois, and on Chicago’s residential streets.

Several people testified that they had had guns pointed at their heads while filming agents, while one pastor testified that he had been struck in the face by a pepper ball while praying.

Ellis granted the preliminary injunction in response to a request brought by some of those affected to restrict the use of federal force against them.

First Amendment

The plaintiffs argued that using excessive force at protests could make individuals less inclined to exercise their rights out of fear of consequences or reprisal.

In her decision, Ellis ruled that there was merit to the plaintiffs’ claims that the government’s conduct could have a chilling effect on First Amendment rights to freedom of speech, assembly, and religion, saying that her order would prevent this.

Federal agents’ use of force, including anti-riot measures, has historically been guided by broad standard requiring the force to be “objectively reasonable,” a standard laid out in the 1989 Supreme Court case Graham v. Connor.

This entails a general requirement to use as little force as possible and respect constitutional rights, while responding proportionately to legitimate threats.

U.S. Justice Department attorney Sarmad Khojasteh argued during the hearing that in every instance, federal agents were justified in their use of force, and told the court that protestors’ actions did not constitute protected First Amendment activity.

Ellis said that in several cases, federal agents had misrepresented events, presenting a different story than events captured on video, in order to justify an escalation of force.

Ellis said during the hearing that Gregory Bovino—the Border Patrol commander-at-large spearheading the administration’s immigration enforcement effort in the city—claimed that he had been hit with a rock prior to throwing tear gas, but that “Video evidence ultimately disproved this.”

According to the judge, Bovino admitted during a deposition that he was struck after tear gas had been dispersed.

Attorneys for the government responded that Bovino has started wearing a body camera since this incident took place, but was not equipped with one at the time. As part of her order, Ellis directed immigration agents to wear body cameras and clearly present their badges or identification.

A similar order was issued by Ellis last month in a temporary restraining order, which expired on Nov. 6.

credittrader Fri, 11/07/2025 - 11:21

You'd Think A Trillion Dollars Opens A Few Doors For Elon

By Michael Every of Rabobank

US challenger job-cuts data were… challenging: the highest level of October firings in 20 years. While we wait for the US Supreme Court to decide on the challenge to one set of Trump tariffs, before they are replaced by others, and to see if the US Senate will reopen the US government today, as it rejects the Trump challenge to ‘nuke the veto’, we are also challenged by:

The China-US deal to ease rare-earth export controls for a year may have hit a snag. China’s regional authorities have reportedly said export controls from April remain in place so there is still a need for special export licenses and intrusive questions. That’s a week into the one-year Trump-Xi deal. The US also added silver and copper to its critical minerals list, as Trump hosted Central Asian leaders, aiming for their rare earths, as Japan and the US announced they would mine deep-sea rare earths together. Does any of this read like they expect the deal to hold long-term?

Gunvor had to scrap their deal to purchase Lukoil’s foreign assets, following the Russian firm’s sanctioning by the US, after the US called it a Kremlin “puppet.” We have been warning geopolitics would force entry into the commodity trading complex: here’s a warmup.

The Financial Times reported recent US trade deals with ASEAN countries contain ‘poison pills’ which mean they can be cancelled by the White House if any action signatories take with China threatens “essential US interests” or “poses a material threat” to it. Do you think this kind of logic will only apply to those particular counterparties? No: it will apply to everyone who struck a deal.

That’s as the South China Morning Post asks, ‘Can the EU walk a strategic autonomy tightrope in the China-US tug of war?’, quoting a former diplomat that China’s efforts to persuade the EU to treat ties as a strategic partnership are “reaching their limits”. Equally, a coalition of 16 US State attorney generals warned some of the country’s biggest companies not to comply with the EU’s new sustainability regulations: Europe is already watering said legislation down to appease Qatar. Moreover, US firm Kyndryl just entered into an agreement to acquire Solvinity, a provider of secure managed cloud platforms and services in the Netherlands, including for the Dutch government, while VW announced it will be developing driverless cars using Chinese AI. ‘EU strategic autonomy’ meets reality and goes home without its lunch money.

Trump has today made it sound like he’s building bridges to India, calling PM Modi “a great man,” stating he has largely stopped buying Russian oil -- news to India, Russia, and oil markets -- and that he could go there in 2026. If so, expect the 50% US tariff to come down regardless of what the Supreme Court thinks. It seems highly unlikely that the US would need to insist on a poison pill re: China for any India deal that is then struck.

And speaking of striking things, geopolitics continues to march alongside geoeconomics:

In the Middle East, the US is reportedly to establish a military presence at a Damascus airbase to broker a Israel-Syria security pact, as Israel carries out airstrikes vs Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, the US reiterates Hamas has pledged to disarm too, and Kazakhstan, which already has relations with Israel, will join the Abraham Accords.

In Latin America, the US Senate blocked a resolution that would have kept Trump from striking Venezuela, and the US is considering a new military base in Ecuador. Argentina’s Milei is meanwhile defying calls to float the Argentine peso freely as dollarisation rumours rumble on.

In Europe, drones closed Brussels airport for the third time in a week, Romania called on the US to overturn its decision to drawdown 800 troops based there, as the EU agreed to open its Horizon research fund to defence projects.

In Asia, the SCMP says, ‘China could win a contest with the US ‘before a shot is even fired’: strategists’ as “Decades of neglect and decline have made logistics the weakest link in Washington’s deterrence strategy in the Pacific.” Japan and New Zealand have begun talks on a potential frigates acquisition, and China’s military says Australia’s AUKUS plans put it in an “increasingly precarious position.”

Meanwhile, just as market worries over inflation AND job losses start to appear in tandem, we get the world’s first trillionaire in the form of Elon Musk, who just won his giant pay rise from shareholders. As the Australian Financial Review notes, “The [for now] billionaire’s new deal isn’t about money. It’s about putting himself at the center of the way society operates – in his words, having “strong influence.”” You’d think a trillion dollars opens a few doors.

The Financial Times also just had back-to-back links yesterday worth noting. First, ‘AI pioneers claim human-level general intelligence is already here’: it was fun having a job while it lasted. Second, ‘Are bubbles good, actually?’ on Jeff Bezos' defence of AI mania: it’s perhaps not hard for AI to mimic certain levels of human ‘intelligence’ (and, to be fair, the article argues bubbles are historically a very silly way to build ambitious projects vs proper planning).  

As stocks wobble and China restarts de facto QE with a small bond purchase, France’s far right says it will push for the ECB to do the same if it comes to power, following a policy path paved by Reform in the UK and, to a degree, the Trump White House vis-à-vis the Fed. How long until other EU elections drag central banks into the mix? How long until populists are in the position to actually make that shift happen?

Or, how long until central banks do it anyway if job losses suddenly start to spike? If that doesn’t challenge some preconceptions of how things work, I’m not sure what will.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 11:15

Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims Increased Last Week; Goldman Estimates

Goldman Sachs economics research group estimates that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims increased to about 228k for the week ended November 1st by combining the Department of Labor (DOL)’s pre-released seasonal factors with this afternoon’s release of state-level claims.

While the DOL is not producing any official data releases during the government shutdown, some employees involved with the administration of unemployment insurance are excepted from the shutdown and publish the state-level data as a part of their regular duties.

Estimates for New Mexico did not appear in today’s DOL data, and we assume that initial claims there were in line with last week’s levels.

At the state level, we estimate that initial claims rose by 5k each in Missouri and Kentucky but declined by 3k each in Texas and California (all state-level data seasonally adjusted by GS).

Using the same set of assumptions, we estimate that continuing claims increased to 1,954k for the week ended October 25th.

These estimates are based on preliminary data and may change when DOL officially releases jobless claims after the government shutdown.

Notably, homebase reports that the Entertainment industry is seeing the biggest layoffs...

Finally, while the official data remains unknown due to the shutdown, Bloomberg has summarized the private and alternative data...

...most of which suggests a softening labor market.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 11:00

4 Reasons Why Ethereum Did Not Fall Below $3K, And Probably Won't

Authored by Nancy Lubale via CoinTelegraph.com,

• Ether’s profitability metrics drop to levels that have historically marked local bottoms.

• Ethereum fees up 83% weekly, signalling strong onchain demand.

• ETH supply on exchanges is at a nine-year low, with strong price support at $3,000.

Ether’s latest sell-off was stopped at $3,000, as bulls aggressively defended this level. ETH has since recovered to current levels above $3,300, increasing the odds that the price was unlikely to drop lower, backed by several onchain and technical data.

Ether traders realize losses

On-chain data reveals that Ether’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has dropped to 0.96, suggesting ETH investors are selling at a loss. 

This implies that the ongoing correction in ETH price is driven by traders realizing losses amid panic and extreme fear.

SOPR measures the profit or loss of spent ETH outputs by comparing the value of coins when they were last moved to their value when they are spent again. 

A value of less than 1 might suggest capitulation or a market bottom, potentially signaling a good time to buy.

Ethereum SOPR. Source: Glassnode

Historically, this scenario has often preceded price recoveries. When SOPR fell to 0.86 following Ether’s drop to $1,500 in April, it was followed by a 91% recovery in price to $2,700 four weeks later.

As such, some investors saw the drop to $3,000 as an opportunity to buy.

Ethereum onchain data signals renewed demand

On-chain activity over the last seven days paints a positive picture. Ethereum continues to expand its dominance over competitors, securing roughly 56% of the market’s total value locked (TVL), according to DefiLlama. 

Even more relevant, network fees are climbing, reflecting stronger demand for blockspace, which reinforces Ether’s price strength above $3,000.

Top blockchains ranked by 7-day fees, USD. Source: Nansen

Ethereum’s fees over the past seven days climbed to $9.23 million on Friday, an 83% increase from the prior week. For comparison, Solana’s fees just rose just 9.1% while BNB Chain revenues declined by 41%.

This divergence highlights Ethereum’s dominance in decentralized exchange volumes, which climbed 22% in October, according to DefiLlama.

Decreasing ETH supply on exchanges

ETH supply on exchanges continues to drop. Data from Glassnode reveals that the ETH balance on exchanges decreased by 22% from 17 million ETH on Aug. 24 to a nine-year low of 13.14 million ETH on Friday. 

This metric dropped sharply over the last seven days, when deposits to trading platforms fell by over 31%. This drop coincides with a 14% decline in Ether’s price over the same period.

ETH balance on exchanges. Source: Glassnode

A decreasing ETH balance on exchanges indicates that there is less supply available for immediate sale.

ETH price sits on strong support above $3,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that bulls are fighting to maintain the ETH price above a key support zone, as illustrated in the chart below.

This is the area between $3,000 and $3,150, defined by the 100-week and 50-week simple moving averages (SMAs), respectively. These trendlines have supported the price since July.

However, a drop below this level could trigger a fresh downtrend, with the first line of defense emerging from the $2,800 support level. Lower than that, the bulls might retreat to the 200-week SMA around $2,500, where they could mount a strong defense. 

ETH/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“You want to see buyers stepping in and pushing for control around the $3.2K-$3.4K area,” said crypto analyst Skew in a recent X post.

A drop below this level would be a “clear invalidation for $ETH,” the analyst added.

Fellow analyst Crypto Patel said,

“Holding $3,000 support is key, as it could spark the next bullish wave.”

As Cointelegraph reported, Ethereum traders have flipped bullish, as evidenced by the uptick in positive comments on social media, which was interpreted as a good sign that the ETH price was back on track. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 10:45

Thune "Willing To Give Democrats All The Things They Want" As Friday Shutdown Vote Looms

The Senate will vote for a 15th time today on a short-term funding bill to reopen the government - with a growing number of Republicans indicating that they're open to caving over Affordable Care Act enhanced subsidies. 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) is offering Democrats post-shutdown votes on ACA and tax credits in an attempt to win Democratic support and end the standoff, which is now in its 37th day. 

"I'm willing to give Democrats all the things they want," Thune said Friday. 

The comments come after Democratic support for a deal to reopen the government has failed over such promises - with Senate dems rejecting a Thursday proposal to pass a continuing resolution to three full-year appropriations bills that would fund military construction, veterans' affairs, the Department of Agriculture and the legislative branch. 

Democratic senators discussed the proposal at a party luncheon and concluded that it didn't provide strong enough assurances that Trump and the GOP-controlled house would renew the pandemic-era (short term) ACA subsidies set to expire in January. 

Thune needs at least eight Democrats to cross the aisle in order to reopen the government - and is five short of what he needs. 

"I trust John Thune, but here’s a fact: It’s beyond his control if we … get an enforceable agreement, because we have to get buy-in from the House of Representatives," said Sen. Peter Welch (D-VT), who's been part of talks to end the shutdown, noting that he doesn't trust House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to stick to any deals. 

Meanwhile, President Trump reiterated his call for Senate R's to end the filibuster. 

Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) says Trump refused to stick to the deal Senate Republicans negotiated during the 2018-2019 shutdown triggered by a fight over the US-Mexico border wall and immigration policy.

"We had a bipartisan negotiation to solve the problem, came up with a bill — Sen. [Susan] Collins [R-Maine] was involved — and, at the very last minute, President Trump pulled out the rug out from under all the negotiators and said, ‘There’ll be no bill,’" Durbin said. 

Without Trump's public approval for a deal that would include ACA negotiations, Democrats don't think Thune can deliver 60 Senate votes to keep health insurance premiums where they are. 

Thune even acknowledged Thursday that his power is limited.

"I can’t — and I’ve made this very clear to them — I can’t guarantee them an outcome. I can guarantee them a process. They can litigate the issue, get the vote on the floor," he said. "

"Presumably, they have some way of getting a vote in the House at some point, but I can’t speak for the House," he added.

"And obviously, I can’t guarantee an outcome here."

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 10:30

$60 Oil Undercuts Trump's 'Drill, Baby, Drill' Agenda

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

• U.S. shale producers are not embracing the "drill, baby, drill" mantra because current oil prices, which hover near or below their breakeven point, do not justify accelerating production.

• Instead of drilling new wells, companies are boosting output through efficiency gains, consolidation, and utilizing drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) to preserve value for shareholders.

• Industry executives, including those from TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips, believe the U.S. shale industry will stagnate or decline if oil prices remain around the $60 to $65 per barrel range.

“Drill, baby, drill” is not the central theme in the U.S. shale patch despite President Donald Trump’s best efforts to back the American oil and gas industry with eased permitting and reversal of climate and export-restricting policies. 

Most U.S. oil and gas producers are boosting production through consolidation and efficiency gains, instead of drilling additional wells. Many rely on drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) to raise output as the U.S. benchmark oil price has dipped by about 15% since President Trump’s inauguration in January.   

The regulatory and permitting climate has rarely been so favorable for the oil industry, after President Trump rescinded many of Biden’s energy policies to allow again massive federal oil and gas lease sales, open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge’s coastal plain in Alaska to drilling, and lift a moratorium on new LNG export project approvals.  

However, the oil market and oil price reality this year is not in favor of “drill, baby, drill.”

No Drill, Baby, Drill

True, U.S. oil production has continued to grow to record highs this year, as output lags the global price moves with several months, and producers bet on efficiency and selective capital allocation to preserve value for shareholders at oil prices that are very close to, or even below, their breakeven price to profitably drill a new well.  

Drilling activity is slipping, with the total rig count now down to 546, according to Baker Hughes, a decline of 39 rigs from this same time last year. 

At the current price of oil, shale will stagnate or start to decline, industry executives say, while shale producers look to do more with less by raising efficiency in production and capital allocation. 

“Fundamentally, the short-term market is a little bearish,” Patrick Pouyanne, the chief executive of supermajor TotalEnergies, said at the Energy Intelligence forum last month. 

“There is a point at $60 per barrel where we'll see the shale industry beginning to slow down,” Pouyanne said on the sidelines of the forum. 

ConocoPhillips chairman and CEO Ryan Lance said that “At $60-$65 a barrel WTI oil prices, the US is probably plateau-ish.”

U.S. oil output could grow by between 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 400,000 bpd this year, Lance said.

“But if prices stay at $60 or go into the $50s, you probably are plateauing or slightly declining,” the executive added.    WTI prices have traded just below or just above $60 per barrel in recent weeks, weighed down by forecasts of a major oversupply hitting the market within weeks. 

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO and Director at Diamondback Energy, this week told shareholders in his quarterly letter that the company, which is color-coding its activity levels to the colors of a stoplight, remains in the “yellow” zone today, while retaining all operational flexibility for green or red.” 

The estimates of the looming oversupply range from less than 500,000 bpd at OPEC to nearly 4 million bpd at the International Energy Agency (IEA). 

“As they say in Texas, ‘you could drive a truck between those two numbers’. Our best guess on the amount of oversupply lies somewhere in between, with our inherent cognitive bias leaning to support OPEC’s forecast. We also recognize we are unlikely to see positive price signals until this debate is resolved,” Van't Hof wrote.  

“Against this backdrop, we firmly believe there is no need for incremental oil barrels until there is a proper price signal,” the executive added.  

“Until that time, we will put our head down and continue to work to lower our industry-leading oil price breakeven, reinvestment rate and cost structure so we can maximize Free Cash Flow to pay our dividend, buy back shares and pay down debt.” 

Price Signal Outweighs Trump’s Support  

For the U.S. oil and gas producers, the Trump Administration’s favorable policy is not the key driver of capital allocation and drilling activity. It’s the price of oil.

“In a word, ‘drill baby drill’ has been a flop,” Dan Pickering, chief investment officer at Houston-based Pickering Energy Partners, told the Financial Times. 

“The industry is driven by economics and right now, the economics don’t justify accelerating production,” Pickering added.

While the American oil industry has praised the eased regulatory burden and the U.S. energy dominance policy of the Trump Administration, it has been rattled by the trade and tariff uncertainty and the President’s insistence that energy prices should be lowered. 

“The U.S. shale business is broken,” an executive at an exploration and production company wrote in comments to the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey in September. 

“What was once the world’s most dynamic energy engine has been gutted by political hostility and economic ignorance.”

The previous administration vilified the industry and cheered when Wall Street walked away from shale, they added, but noted that “Now the current administration is finishing the job.”

“Guided by a U.S. Department of Energy that tells them what they want to hear instead of hard facts, they operate with little understanding of shale economics,” the executive said.

“Instead of supporting domestic production, they’ve effectively aligned with OPEC—using supply tactics to push prices below economic thresholds, kneecapping U.S. producers in the process.”  

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 10:20

UMich Unveils The Biggest Pile Of Propagandist Piffle Ever

With American facing a 'k-shaped' economy (Main Street weak, Wall Street strong)...

...and amid an almost complete vacuum of 'hard' economic data due to the government shutdown, 'soft' sentiment survey data continues to punch above its weight when it comes to market-moving news.

This morning's UMich Sentiment survey, with preliminary data for November, was expected to show a continued decline from October's 'flaming dumpster fire of propaganda' with expectations fading.

The headline sentiment printed at a stunning 50.3, well below the 53.0 expected and down from 53.6 ion October with both Current Conditions (52.3 from 58.6) and Expectations (49.0 from 50.3).

For some context, that is weakest sentiment reading in 45 years (with stocks at record highs and unemployment rates barely off their lows)...

Source: Bloomberg

The Marxist maniacs noted that "with the federal government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy."

This month’s decline in sentiment was widespread throughout the population, seen across age, income, and political affiliation.

However, the gap between Democrats' and Republicans' views of the 'Current Conditions' is at a record high...

Source: Bloomberg

The survey also shows a massive divide between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to Expectations...

Source: Bloomberg

Long-run inflation expectations declined from 3.9% last month to 3.6% in November. Year-ahead inflation expectations inched up from 4.6% last month to 4.7% this month and remained well below readings in May in the wake of the initial announcements of major tariff changes.

These expectations are now below the midpoint between the readings seen a year ago and the 2025 peak reading from April.

Source: Bloomberg

Driven by a rebound in Democrats' inflation expectations...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, the propagandists over at UMich were forced to recognize one thing: consumers with the largest tercile of stock holdings posted a notable 11% increase in sentiment, supported by continued strength in stock markets.

Forgive our ignorance here but how is headline UMich Sentiment at a record low going back over 45 years when expectations for personal income is rising, expectations for stock market gains are rising, the value of your primary residence is rising, and the value of any stock market investment is rising...

One more thing... UMich respondents believe that the chance of them losing their job is the highest since COVID or the GFC!!??! Who the fuck are they interviewing?

Interviews for this release closed prior to Tuesday’s elections... so does that mean sentiment will soar in the final November data as Marxism comes to Manhattan?

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 10:10

FAA-Imposed Flight-Cuts Begin As Government Shutdown Deepens Travel Disruptions

A wave of flight cancellations and delays is already rippling across U.S. airports after the Federal Aviation Administration ordered airlines to reduce 4% of flights at 40 of the nation's busiest airports to ease pressure on unpaid air traffic controllers amid the record-long government shutdown. The airlines most at risk today include Spirit, Frontier, and United.

The FAA's unprecedented directive will cut flight operations by 4% today, rising to 6% by next Tuesday and reaching 10% by mid-month, that's if the federal government remains shut down.

For some context, a 10% reduction will result in about 4,400 flights canceled per day, causing widespread travel chaos nationwide ahead of the holiday period later this month. 

 As of Friday morning, the aviation website FlightAware shows 822 flight cancellations within, into, or out of the U.S. and 805 delays within, into, or out of the U.S. Those numbers are expected to rise through the day.

Cancellations begin: 

We are back at CVG this morning as the FAA flight reduction goes into effect at 6 AM. So far 6 arriving flights have been cancelled, no departures cancelled yet but one has been delayed by an hour. We are bringing you live updates on @FOX19 pic.twitter.com/KiDObn4qAP

— Caroline Gerhart (@CGerhart_News) November 7, 2025

Has your flight from Atlanta been cancelled today? @nytimes wants to hear about it. DM me or comment below. pic.twitter.com/VXS5eHqnCc

— Sean Keenan (@ThatSeanKeenan) November 7, 2025

Major U.S. Airports Affected by FAA Flight Reductions:

• ANC – Ted Stevens Anchorage International

• ATL – Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International

• BOS – Boston Logan International

• BWI – Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall

• CLT – Charlotte Douglas International

• CVG – Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International

• DAL – Dallas Love Field

• DCA – Ronald Reagan Washington National

• DEN – Denver International

• DFW – Dallas/Fort Worth International

• DTW – Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County

• EWR – Newark Liberty International

• FLL – Fort Lauderdale–Hollywood International

• HNL – Daniel K. Inouye Honolulu International

• HOU – William P. Hobby (Houston)

• IAD – Washington Dulles International

• IAH – George Bush Intercontinental (Houston)

• IND – Indianapolis International

• JFK – John F. Kennedy International (New York)

• LAS – Harry Reid International (Las Vegas)

• LAX – Los Angeles International

• LGA – LaGuardia (New York)

• MCO – Orlando International

• MDW – Chicago Midway International

• MEM – Memphis International

• MIA – Miami International

• MSP – Minneapolis–St. Paul International

• OAK – Oakland International

• ONT – Ontario International

• ORD – Chicago O'Hare International

• PDX – Portland International

• PHL – Philadelphia International

• PHX – Phoenix Sky Harbor International

• SAN – San Diego International

• SDF – Louisville Muhammad Ali International

• SEA – Seattle–Tacoma International

• SFO – San Francisco International

• SLC – Salt Lake City International

• TEB – Teterboro (New Jersey)

• TPA – Tampa International

Mapping Where Cancellations and Delays Will Originate

Later today, the Senate will vote for the 15th time to reopen the federal government. Earlier this week, reports indicated that eight centrist Democrats were prepared to join Republicans in ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history. However, the party's far-left progressive wing, which prioritizes illegal aliens over American citizens and has become the new face of the Democratic Party, is pushing back against reopening the government.

Separate, but in markets, FAA-enforced flight cancellations are expected to weigh on jet fuel demand across major US airport hubs.

Check back later for updates. We suspect delays and cancellations will mount throughout the day.  

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 09:45

Nexperia Chip Crisis Defused? Dutch Minister "Trusts" China To Resume Chip Exports Next Week

There are encouraging signs that the global auto supply-chain chip crunch sparked by the dispute between the Netherlands and China has begun to cool.

Dutch Economy Minister Vincent Karremans said Friday that China is expected to resume chip supplies to Nexperia's customers in Europe and elsewhere "in the coming days," signaling a softening of the Netherlands' stance and raising hopes of a breakthrough deal with China to resolve the months-long dispute surrounding Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia. 

"The Netherlands trusts that the supply of chips from China to Europe and the rest of the world will reach Nexperia's customers over the coming days," Karremans stated. He was part of the team of Dutch authorities that seized Nexperia's management early this fall.

Bloomberg reports that the Netherlands is preparing to roll back its ministerial order granting the government authority to block or alter key corporate decisions at Nexperia, provided China resumes exports of its critical chips. The use of this Cold War-era law, which gave the Dutch state control over Nexperia's operations, prompted Beijing to retaliate by imposing restrictions on the company's exports from China.

Those Chinese export restrictions sparked automotive chip disruptions:

• Nexperia-Linked Chip Shortages Ripple Through Global Auto Supply Chain, From Germany To Japan

• Chipmaker Nexperia's China Arm Tells Staff To Ignore Dutch HQ, Deepening Semiconductor Split

This comes as the U.S. and China unveil a trade deal and resolution to the chip dispute:

• White House Unveils Details Of U.S.-China Deal, Including Resolution To Nexperia Auto Chip Crisis

Karremans noted, "Given the constructive nature of our talks with the Chinese authorities, the Netherlands trusts that the supply of chips from China to Europe and the rest of the world will reach Nexperia's customers over the coming days." 

News of this development sent Nexperia's Chinese parent Wingtech Technology up nearly 10%, while major European automakers gained in the Friday session.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 09:30

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decline in October

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) dropped to 202.9, reflecting a 2.0% decline in October’s wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to September. The index is mostly unchanged compared to October 2024. The long-term average monthly move for October is an increase of 0.3%, as the seasonal adjustment factor is typically the weakest of the year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices were declined in October (seasonally adjusted) and were unchanged YoY.

The post Prescriptions for Mamdani: Use the Market, Don’t Fight It appeared first on CEPR.

US Government Revokes 80,000 Visas

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of State said on Nov. 6 that 80,000 visas have been revoked.

President Donald Trump and State Secretary Marco Rubio “will always put the safety and interests of the American people first,” the State Department said in a post on X.

The department said in a follow-up post that visas were revoked for reasons including support for terrorism, “actual terrorism,” criminal activity, public safety threats, and overstays.

The State Department also said that 16,000 visas were revoked in 2025 for driving under the influence of alcohol, 12,000 revoked for assault, and 8,000 revoked for theft. The nonimmigrant visa revocation numbers are from the beginning of this year.

The State Department did not offer more details regarding the revocations. The administration has maintained a conservative stance on approving visas for foreigners and has swiftly canceled visa privileges of temporary residents, including students, based on actions concerning national security.

“The Trump Administration will not hesitate to revoke visas from foreigners who undermine our laws or threaten our national security,” Tommy Pigott, the State Department’s principal deputy spokesperson, said in a Nov. 5 post on X.

Recently, the department invalidated visas of foreign nationals for publicly celebrating the assassination of popular conservative influencer Charlie Kirk.

In an Oct. 14 post on X, the department said it was revoking visas of six foreigners, including a South African national who mocked Americans grieving Kirk’s death, saying, “They’re hurt that the racist rally ended in attempted martyrdom.” The other individuals were from Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Mexico, and Paraguay.

“The United States has no obligation to host foreigners who wish death on Americans,” the department said, adding that it “continues to identify visa holders who celebrated the heinous assassination of Charlie Kirk.”

The Trump administration has also reduced the number of nonimmigrant visas issued to foreign nationals.

The visas are issued to foreign citizens on a temporary basis for tourism, business, medical treatment, and certain types of temporary work, while immigrant visas are for people who intend to live and work permanently in the country.

The United States had approved 897,937 nonimmigrant visas in May 2025, according to numbers from the State Department. This is down by more than 16 percent from 1,070,656 such visas issued in May 2024 under the Biden administration.

As for immigrant visas, the department issued 46,751 such visas in May 2025, down by more than 20 percent from the 58,778 issued in May last year.

Student Visa Vetting

In late May, the State Department ordered U.S. embassies to pause student visa interviews in an effort to strengthen the vetting process, especially concerning the screening of applicants’ social media accounts.

“We take very seriously the process of vetting who it is that comes into the country,” then-State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce told reporters at the time.

This action from the department followed Rubio’s statement in March.

“Coming to the United States on a visa is a privilege, not a right,“ Rubio said. ”The Trump Administration is determined to deny or revoke your visa if you’re here to support terrorists.”

He made the comments amid a rise in student protests on college campuses across the country.

The Trump administration’s crackdown on student visas has been met with opposition from Democrats. In April, a group of Democrats from New York criticized the administration following reports of students from various universities in the state having their visas revoked, according to an April 17 statement by New York state Sen. Patricia Fahy.

Such a “continued assault” on students’ free speech and institutions of higher education undermines the principles of American democracy, she said, adding that students must not feel afraid or powerless because of their immigration status.

“We are deeply disturbed by the Trump administration’s revocation of student visas without justification or explanation,” Fahy said. “The Constitution guarantees fundamental rights and due process to all people, not just U.S. citizens. History tells us that although persecution often begins with attacks on immigrant communities, it rarely ends there, which begs the question: Who is next?”

In June, the department announced new vetting requirements, including social media screening for all student visa applicants. The changes affect applicants for the student, vocational, and exchange visitor visas.

Rubio also announced that the administration would begin revoking visas for students from China, including those with any links to the Chinese Communist Party.

The Chinese communist regime has been accused of monitoring and mobilizing students abroad for the purposes of carrying out CCP directives and spreading its propaganda.

In August, the Department of Homeland Security proposed changes to temporary visas, which included establishing a fixed visa period for nonimmigrant students, exchange visitors, and foreign media personnel to stay in the United States.

The administration has also placed visa restrictions on foreign nationals who engage in censoring Americans, and on H-1B visas issued for importing foreign workers to fulfill specialized roles.

“Even as we take action to reject censorship at home, we see troubling instances of foreign governments and foreign officials picking up the slack. In some instances, foreign officials have taken flagrant censorship actions against U.S. tech companies and U.S. citizens and residents when they have no authority to do so,” the State Department said in a May 28 statement.

Employers must now pay a one-time fee of $100,000 for visas to hire a foreign worker under the H-1B program.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 09:15

Stocks Slide To Session Lows As Risk Sentiment Fractures

US equity futs are trading at session lows driven by a tech-led dip in stock futures over the past two hours as global risk sentiment turns sour to end the week, and with Goldman TMT specialist Peter Bartlett observing that  "a more bearish/skeptical view of the AI trade is coming up in more and more of our investor conversations... even if positioning hasn't changed much off the highs." As of 8:00am, S&P futures are down 0.5%, and Nasdaq futures drop 0.7%, with most of the Mag 7s underperforming (NVDA -0.7%, GOOG/L -0.5% and META -0.5%). Microsoft was poised for its longest losing streak since 2011. US Treasuries held onto yesterday’s gains with yields 1-2 bps higher after the two dismal labor reports . The dollar was steady, while Bitcoin headed for its worst week since March. Commodities are mixed; oil and precious metals are higher this morning, while base metals are lower. Macro headlines overnight were mostly quiet. Shutdown negotiation progress remains stalled; airline cuts begin this Friday. Chinese exports unexpectedly fall for the first time since February; Jensen Huang said he is not actively discussing the Blackwell shipment to China. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: (Tesla +0.1%, Microsoft -0.4%, Apple -0.04%, Amazon -0.6%, Meta -0.5%, Alphabet -0.7%, Nvidia -0.8%) 

• Affirm Holdings (AFRM) jumps 10% after the buy-now-pay-later financing company raised its forecast for 2026 gross merchandise volume. The updated guidance beat the average analyst estimate.
• Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) rises 3% after issuing a better-than-expected outlook for the holiday quarter, with a recently launched “reserve now, pay later” feature helping fuel demand in the US.
• Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) falls 13% after the maker of fiber-optic networking products reported third-quarter revenue that was slightly weaker than expected and gave a revenue outlook that was below the analyst consensus. However, analysts see strong prospects for 2026.
• Archer Aviation (ACHR) drops 11% after the company, which is trying to bring electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft to market, said it is buying Hawthorne Airport in Los Angeles. The company is offering shares at $8 each to certain institutional investors to raise gross proceeds of $650m, part of which will be used to fund the acquisition.
• Block (XYZ) tumbles 14% after the fintech platform reported third-quarter adjusted earnings and net revenue that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Expedia (EXPE) rises 14% after the online travel agency’s results pointed to strong and resilient travel demand. Peer Airbnb (ABNB) also rallies after the company gave a better-than-expected outlook for the holiday quarter.
• Globus Medical (GMED) soars 28% after the medical-device maker increased its forecast for full-year profit following third-quarter earnings that topped estimates. Truist Securities upgrades to buy from hold, citing much higher earnings power following results.
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) falls 30% after the biotech reported a patient died following treatment with its investigational gene-editing therapy to treat a rare disease.
• JFrog (FROG) soars 21% after the software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.
• KKR & Co. (KKR) is up around 5% after the investment company reported assets under management that beat the average analyst estimate. Fee-related earnings also came in above expectations.
• Microchip Technology (MCHP) falls 3% after the semiconductor-device company gave a weaker-than-expected revenue forecast.
• Monster Beverage (MNST) rises 4% after third-quarter results topped expectations. Analysts are positive about the energy drinks company’s gross margins and sales following the recent price hikes. Shares rose 4.1% in postmarket trading.
• Sandisk Corp. (SNDK) rises 3% after the computer hardware and storage company posted fiscal first quarter revenue that beat estimates. Second-quarter sales guidance also topped expectations. Analysts continue to see a strong AI-fueled tailwind for the company.
• Sweetgreen (SG) falls 13% after the restaurant chain cut its revenue guidance for the full year, missing the average analyst estimate. William Blair downgrades its rating on the stock.
• Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO) falls 6% after delaying the release of Grand Theft Auto VI again, pushing back the much-anticipated video game by six months to November 2026.
• Wendy’s Co. (WEN) rises 7% after reporting that sales declined less than expected in the third quarter, a sign the burger chain is starting to rebound from a slump that’s eroded investor confidence this year.

In corporate news, Tesla shareholders approved a $1 trillion compensation package for CEO Elon Musk, more than 75% of the votes cast in favor of the largest payout ever awarded to a corporate leader. Comcast is said to explore Warner Bros Discovery Bid, and ITV confirmed discussions with Comcast’s Sky about a potential division sale. 

Investors are heading into the end of a dizzying week that has delivered one of the toughest tests yet for the post-April AI-fueled rally amid growing doubts that the surge has gone too far.  Futures edge lower in early trading, capping a week in which investors weighed concerns over tech valuations, sparse economic data, mixed signals on interest rate cuts and an unclear jobs market picture. With another empty Friday for labor economists, Fed commentary is drawing greater scrutiny. Austan Goolsbee said a lack of inflation data during the government shutdown makes him uneasy about continuing interest-rate cuts. That follows Beth Hammack’s caution that high inflation poses a bigger risk than job market weakness. John Williams sees Fed reserves as close to the desired level.

“Sentiment is probably modestly cautious,” said Karen Georges, a fund manager at Ecofi. “Any reassuring news on employment data in the US, a potential end to the shutdown, or tariff news-flow could give markets a new boost.”

With the US benchmark down 1.8% for the week, a notable feature has been the lack of clear catalysts behind the swings. Traders say the choppiness may linger for a while but expect it to remain relatively shallow, with solid earnings and the prospect of eventual Fed easing continuing to underpin sentiment.

“On the very short term, let’s say until the end of the year, we really don’t see any big correction on the horizon, we don’t see any type of catalyst for that,” said Arnaud Faller, chief investment officer at CPR Asset Management.

As noted last night, AI enthusiasm is increasingly meeting skepticism, with concerns centering on a question that threatens to undermine the hype: Who is going to provide all of funds needed to finance the lofty ambitions of OpenAI? 
Opinions vary. DoubleLine Capital’s Robert Cohen warns on novel project structures, like off-balance sheet funding, and the uncertainty over whether such huge projects will make money. Delphine Arnaud, portfolio manager at Edmond de Rothschild, shares concerns over how quickly heavy capex can translate into earnings but doesn’t see a bubble-bursting scenario. Japan’s largest tech fund says AI stocks are not in a bubble and can rise further. 

The silver lining: according to BofA, flows remain supportive with US equity funds attracting $19.6 billion for the week ending Nov. 5, an eighth consecutive week of inflows. That said, volatility gauges remain in focus with the VIX index back above 20 briefly on Thursday, and the VVIX rose at one point to the highest since mid-October.

Semiconductors remain in the spotlight. Nvidia isn’t in active discussions to sell its Blackwell AI chips to Chinese firms, said CEO Jensen Huang. The Netherlands is prepared to suspend its powers over Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia if China allows exports of its critical chips again.

Turning to earnings, out of the 448 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 82% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 14% have missed.  KKR, Franklin Resources, Duke Energy and Constellation Software are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. Analysts will be listening for Duke Energy details on new large-load customers like data centers as well as the utility’s plan for financing its rising capital expenditures. 

European stocks reverse an opening rise, with the Stoxx 600 falling 0.4% on a drag from travel, insurance and tech stocks. Novo Nordisk shares dropped after the Danish drugmaker increased its offer for Metsera Inc. The media and autos sectors outperformed, while travel and leisure shares lagged, dragged lower by IAG. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• Euronext shares rise 3% on third-quarter profit beat, improved cost guidance for the full year and a €250 million share buyback.
• ITV shares surge as much as 18% in London trading, after the broadcaster announced Sky’s owner Comcast is in preliminary discussions about a potential acquisition of its media and entertainment division.
• Monte Paschi shares rally as much as 5% to be the best performers on the Stoxx 600 Banks Index on Friday, after the Italian lender reported net income for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Amadeus shares rise as much as 4%, the most since July, after the company reported results that topped expectations in the third quarter.
• Arkema shares rise as much as 6.5%, the most since May, after the French chemicals company released earnings and lowered its guidance as expected.
• Aumovio shares rise as much as 6.5% after the auto parts supplier posted earnings ahead of expectations in the third quarter, despite a challenging sales backdrop.
• SBB shares advance as much as 13% after the Swedish landlord delivered net income of 803 million Swedish kronor ($83.8 million) for the third quarter.
• Novo Nordisk shares drop as much as 2.3% after the Danish drugmaker said it expects a negative low single-digit impact on global sales growth in 2026 following Thursday’s deal with the Trump administration.
• Rightmove shares fall as much as 28% after the UK online property portal announced plans to step up investment in artificial intelligence, which analysts said will reduce profit estimates for 2026 onward.
• IAG shares drop as much as 9.8%, the most since April, after reporting a miss on Ebit in the key third quarter.
• Dino Polska shares drop as much as 10% after the company reported EPS and sales below estimates on Thursday.

Earlier in the sesssion, Asian stocks fell, with technology-heavy markets leading the decline, as concerns about swelling valuations put the regional gauge on track for its worst week in three months. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.3% on Friday, set for its worst week since August. Markets with large technology weightings, such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, tracked declines in US peers, while Hong Kong also slipped and China’s benchmarks closed lower. Indonesia advanced, and Indian equities trimmed most of their earlier losses. Tech stocks will continue to be in focus for the week ahead, with several firms in the region reporting earnings including Tencent, SoftBank and Sony. India will also report inflation figures, while Hong Kong and Malaysia will release gross domestic product data.

In FX, the dollar strengthens against most G-10 currencies, with the yen, kiwi and sterling underperforming. Fed rate-cut bets into 2026 following hawkish comments from Goolsbee and Hammack.

In rates, bonds falling, with 10-year Treasury yields up two basis points and declines across Europe and the UK. Investors trimming

Treasury futures trade off session lows leading into the US session, with yields still slightly higher on the day across the curve.  US long-end yields are about 1bp cheaper on the day, steepening the curve by less than 1bp; 10-year near 4.09% also is about 1bp higher on the day, outperforming UK counterpart by about 2bp, Germany’s by about half a basis point. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far and expected to be sparse. Thursday’s $9.7 billion haul brought weekly total to $55 billion, matching dealers’ projections. Focal points of US session include November preliminary University of Michigan sentiment, with October jobs report expected to be delayed due to the government shutdown. 

In commodities, gold rose and hovered around $4,000/oz. Oil prices rallying with Brent futures above $64/barrel.

The US economic calendar includes University of Michigan sentiment (10am), October NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am) and September consumer credit (3pm). October jobs report would ordinarily appear at 8:30am. Fed speaker slate includes Governor Miran (3pm)

Top Overnight News

• About 700 flights today were canceled by the four biggest US airlines as the government ordered reduced operations. Trump's administration finalized flight cuts to start at 4% on Friday and will ramp up to 10% on November 14th: BBG
• VP JD Vance said Americans are about to start suffering some very real consequences because of the government shutdown.
• Senate Majority Leader John Thune will attempt to move legislation in the Senate on Friday that could lay the groundwork for reopening the government, although Democrats look like they could block this measure. Politico
• The Trump administration moved to appeal the judgement requiring full SNAP benefits to be paid by Friday.
• The European Commission is proposing a pause to parts of its landmark AI laws amid intense pressure from Big Tech companies and the US gov. Brussels is set to water down parts of its digital rule book, including its AI at that entered into force last year, in a decision on a so-called simplification package on Nov 19. FT
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said his company isn’t in active discussions to sell its Blackwell AI chips to Chinese firms, waving off speculation it’s trying to engineer a return to that market. BBG
• China has begun designing a new rare earth licensing regime that could speed up shipments, but it is unlikely to amount to a complete rollback of restrictions as hoped by Washington, industry insiders said. RTRS
• China’s exports fell in October, with shipments to the U.S. dropping for a seventh straight month, as the growth that has powered the world’s second-largest economy this year took an unexpected stumble. Exports came in at -1.1% (vs. the Street +2.9%) and imports +1% (vs. the Street +2.7%). WSJ
• German exports rose in September, helped by a bump in trade with the U.S. after the European Union agreed to a deal on tariffs in the summer. Exports +1.4% (vs. the Street +0.5%) and imports +3.1% (vs. the Street +0.5%)
• Ukraine’s ambassador to the US Olha Stefanishyna said there have been “positive” talks on acquiring Tomahawk missiles, despite Trump’s reluctance. BBG
• NY Fed President John Williams said that the Federal Reserve could soon return to expanding its securities holdings, a week after the central bank said that it would wind down efforts to shrink its balance sheet on Dec. 1.  The net bond purchases would be the next, long-planned phase of the Fed’s approach to matching the levels of cash-like assets available to banks to their needs—not a new effort to stimulate the economy.  WSJ
• The longest US government shutdown in history isn’t driving the recent softening in markets, but still, they aren’t holding up as well as they did during 2018-2019, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. And missing paychecks and data delays may make the situation worse. BBG
• US Justice Department is said to be investigating the DC mayor over a foreign trip, according to The New York Times.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.5%
• DAX -0.6%
• CAC 40 -0.3%
• 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.1%
• VIX +0.8 points at 20.28
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1222.16
• euro unchanged at $1.1547
• WTI crude +1.4% at $60.26/barrel

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump posts that he's thrilled to announce an incredible trade and economic deal between the US and Uzbekistan in which the latter will be purchasing and investing almost USD 35bln over the next three years, and more than USD 100bln in the next 10 years in key American sectors, including critical minerals, aviation, automotive parts, infrastructure, agriculture, energy & chemicals, information technology, and others.
• US is to block NVIDIA's (NVDA) sale of scaled-back AI chips to China, according to The Information.
• Netherlands is said to be ready to drop control of Nexperia if chip supply resumes, according to Bloomberg.
• China has begun working on rules to ease rare earth export curbs, according to Reuters citing industry sources.
• China's Commerce Ministry suspends more rare earths related export control measures.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region took its cue from the risk-off mood stateside, where sentiment was weighed on by weak US labour market proxies and AI concerns, while sentiment was also not helped by weak Chinese trade data. ASX 200 was led lower by weakness in tech and the top-weighted financial industry, with the latter pressured as Macquarie shares retreated on earnings disappointment. Nikkei 225 briefly fell beneath the 50,000 level after recent tech woes, currency strength and disappointing Household Spending data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood after the PBoC's open market operations resulted in the largest weekly drain since early 2024 and as participants awaited Chinese trade data which ultimately showed a surprise contraction in exports, while it was also reported that the US is to block NVIDIA's sale of scaled-back AI chips to China.

Top Asian News

• PBoC injected CNY 141.7bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 1.40%, while its operations resulted in a weekly net drain of CNY 1.57tln which is the largest fund withdrawal since January 2024.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) opened with a slight positive bias, but slipped soon after the cash open to display a mostly negative picture in Europe. Initial strength perhaps a cooling from the prior day's pressure, but ultimately conformed to the subdued APAC session overnight. European sectors began the day with a positive bias, but now mixed. Autos takes the top spot, following modest post-earning upside in Daimler Truck (+0.9%, poor results but sees strong EBIT). Moreover, Netherlands is said to be ready to drop control of Nexperia if chip supply resumes, according to Bloomberg - further boosting sentiment for the sector. To the downside, IAG (-7%) tumbles after it noted that Transatlantic weakness hit sales.

Top European news

• Citi on the BoE, after November's meeting, cautiously brings back the call for a December cut, but highlights the two sets of data and the budget before then as points of uncertainty.

FX

• DXY has recovered a portion of the prior session’s losses but remains capped below the 100.00 handle, with the rebound tempered by a combination of soft US data and renewed trade-related concerns. The greenback came under pressure yesterday following a trifecta of weak labour market proxies, underscoring signs of cooling momentum in the US economy. Additionally, reports that Washington is set to block NVIDIA’s sale of scaled-back AI chips to China introduced a fresh layer of trade-related risk. On the Fed, Williams avoided remarks on near-term policy. Ahead, on the data front, Prelim University of Michigan sentiment data for November is likely to see the headline slip to 53.2 from 53.6, conditions rise to 59.2 from 58.6. DXY is consolidating modestly above recent lows, with the index last around the 99.85 mark and well within Thursday's hefty 99.67-100.11 range.
• EUR/USD found resistance at 1.1550 but is holding above the 1.15 handle, retaining the bulk of its recent gains following the USD’s broader retracement. Germany's trade surplus this morning narrowed to EUR 15.3bln in September (exp. 16.8bln, prev. 17.2bln), with no notable move seen in the EUR. EUR/USD remains marginally within Thursday's 1.1490-1.1552 range in a current 1.1530-1.1551 band.
• JPY is the clear laggard across the G10 space, retracing a portion of yesterday’s haven-driven gains. Overnight price action was choppy, with USD/JPY oscillating around the 153.00 mark amid a mix of lingering safe-haven demand and softer domestic data, as Japan’s Household Spending figures disappointed expectations. The pair now trades toward the upper end of a relatively contained 152.81–153.54 intraday range, compared to Thursday’s broader 152.83–154.14 parameters. Overall, price action suggests consolidation rather than fresh directional impetus.
• GBP/USD has eased modestly after yesterday’s advance, which came despite the BoE’s dovish hold and was largely driven by broader USD weakness. The pair briefly dipped below the 1.31 handle (low at 1.3097) after touching a session high of 1.3142, marking a retracement from yesterday’s BoE-day range of 1.3042–1.3142. On the domestic front, Halifax data painted a firmer picture of the UK housing market, with prices rising +0.6% M/M in October (exp. +0.1%, prev. -0.3%), pushing annual growth to +1.9% Y/Y (prev. +1.3%). Fiscal headlines also drew attention, with reports that Chancellor Reeves told the Budget watchdog she intends to raise income tax as part of efforts to repair the public finances. Further speculation points to a potential 2p income tax increase paired with a targeted 2p National Insurance cut, alongside consideration of narrowing NI relief above GBP 50,270 and a possible reduction in the annual cash ISA allowance to GBP 12,000 (previously touted GBP 10,000 and from current GBP 20,000).
• Antipodeans are mixed today with the Aussie winning on the AUD/NZD cross, benefiting from stronger copper prices despite weak Chinese trade data. In brief, Chinese exports unexpectedly slipped for the first time since October; but it is worth caveating that the prior month surprised to the upside which captured some front-loading ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, which has since passed without issue.

Fixed Income

• A contained start to the session for USTs but there is a modest bearish bias owing to the slightly constructive trade in US equity futures, though magnitudes are modest. A lot of Fed speak in recent trade. This morning, Williams spoke at an ECB conference, discussing reserve management bond buying as a technical operation. Ahead, we have remarks from Miran (voter) once again and Jefferson (voter). Jefferson, the more interesting of the two, as he generally has a dovish stance, so it will be pertinent to determine if his bias remains the same or has moderated, in the context of Powell’s hawkish press conference. Jefferson last spoke at the start of October and said that while not having BLS data was less than ideal, there was enough information to do the job and was confident in reaching the inflation target. Thus far, USTs in a 112-22 to 112-28 band notching downside of just 4+ ticks at most, comfortably within Thursday’s 112-10 to 112-30 confines.
• Bunds also experienced a slightly softer start to the day, as outlined above. Early doors, a strong set of German trade data for September sent Bunds to a 129.02 low. A strong series that bodes well for the German recovery narrative and follows on from a rebound in industrial production data for the September period (as expected). Nonetheless, the narrative for Germany remains one of structural weakness, but with some signs of a recovery emerging. Since, the move has extended marginally to a 128.99 base, matching the trough from Thursday and in reach of Wednesday’s WTD 128.96 low.
• Gilts opened on the backfoot, posting losses of just over 10 ticks before slipping further to a 93.10 low. If the move continues, we look to Thursday’s 93.03 WTD base. The pullback today comes after the upside seen on Thursday by the BoE, as while desks are aligning around a December cut as being the emerging base case, that view is contingent on the two sets of data and budget due before the December meeting. BoE’s Bailey due to speak once again today, though he is unlikely to add much vs his presser and subsequent media rounds on Thursday; full Newsquawk review available on the headline feed. Elsewhere, the budget remains in focus and an increase to income tax is now very likely following a Times article that Chancellor Reeves has reportedly told the watchdog she intends to increase the measure. She is reportedly considering a 2p increase to income tax and a 2p cut to NI, echoing reports on the weekend that suggested as much, in a bid to move the burden away from workers and onto other groups.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks have reversed Thursday’s losses as risk sentiment continues to shift amid AI concerns and weak US labour market. WTI and Brent oscillated in a tight c. USD 0.20/bbl for the majority of the APAC session before bidding higher and remaining near session highs as European trade continues.
• After Thursday’s choppy price action, spot XAU has continued to grind higher throughout APAC trade and into the European session. XAU started the day at USD 3977/oz and bid higher straight from the open to a peak of USD 4003/oz before pulling back slightly to a low of USD 3985/oz. As the European session got underway, the yellow metal has extended higher and is currently trading at session highs at USD 4010/oz.
• Base metals are trading rangebound as the European session gets underway, and as it steadies from Thursday’s risk-off environment. 3M LME Copper continues to oscillate in a tight USD 10.68k-10.75k/t band as the market awaits a new catalyst.
• Chinese Securities Regulator approved registration of platinum and palladium futures and options.
• Morgan Stanley says new projects successfully coming online in H1-2026 will be the catalyst for Dutch TTF to move below EUR 30/MWh by H2-2026.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump said Iran has been asking if US sanctions can be lifted, while he responded 'very soon', when asked when the international stability force for Gaza will be on the ground.
• US President Trump said he held a great call with Israeli PM Netanyahu and Kazakhstan's President Tokayev, while Trump noted that Kazakhstan is the first country of his second term to join the Abraham Accords and the first of many, with more nations lining up to embrace peace and prosperity through my Abraham Accords.
• Ukrainian ambassador said her country is engaged in “positive” talks about buying Tomahawk missiles and other long-range weapons
• US Senate voted 51-49 to block a measure barring US President Trump from launching war on Venezuela.
• Japan's government said North Korea fired what could be a ballistic missile which fell shortly after, while Japanese PM Takaichi said North Korea's missile likely fell outside of Japan's exclusive economic zone.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00 am: Nov P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 53, prior 53.6
• 3:00 pm: Sep Consumer Credit, est. 10.23b, prior 0.36b
• 7:00 am: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks on AI and Economy
• 3:00 pm: Fed’s Miran Speaks on Stablecoins and Monetary Policy

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Although the market feels a bit tired at the moment I'm positively bouncing this morning as last night was the first time in a couple of weeks that I haven't woke up around 2-3am in pain after my recent back operation. However if you really want to understand pain, last night I was trying to teach two 8-yr olds decimals. It was 99.999999% excruciating.
In a parallel universe, and one where I don't have to teach Maths, we would this morning be eagerly awaiting the US payrolls report later today. But with its extended absence from the calendar, the past couple of days have seen outsized market reactions to second-tier US employment data that would normally serve as the amuse-bouche to today’s main event.

Wednesday saw a sharp yield sell-off following a solid ADP employment report and then better ISM services data. However, that move was completely reversed yesterday after a weak US job cuts release, with the 10yr Treasury yield falling -7.6bps — its biggest daily decline since the US-China trade escalation on October 10. This triggered a global risk-off move, with the S&P 500 down -1.12%, the Nasdaq off -1.90% and the Stoxx 600 -0.70%. Pricing of a Fed rate cut in December rose to 70% (+8pp on the day).

Starting with the US data, investors were rattled by the Challenger, Gray & Christmas report showing October job cuts up +175.3% year-on-year, totalling 153,074 — the highest October figure since 2003. Meanwhile, Revelio Labs’ payroll estimate dropped -9.1k, driven largely by -22.2k losses in government employment. These figures contrasted with Wednesday’s more upbeat ADP and ISM services data than expected.

The backdrop led to a strong rally in Treasuries, with the 10yr yield down -7.6bps to 4.08%, and similar declines for the 2yr (-7.6bps) and 30yr (-5.8bps). Normally, private data prints don’t move markets this much, but the government shutdown has amplified their impact. Equities saw broad declines, with the Russell 2000 down -1.86%, the S&P 500 -1.12%, and the Nasdaq -1.90%. The Magnificent 7 dropped -2.02%, led by Nvidia’s -3.65% decline while Tesla fell -3.50%. The latter move came before Tesla’s shareholders approved Elon Musk’s new pay package yesterday evening. This could reach a remarkable $1 trillion if Tesla hits all the maximum milestones that include a more than quintupling of its market cap to $8.5trn.

While the equity losses were more modest outside of tech, other risk assets also struggled, with US HY credit spreads rising +7bps, while Bitcoin sunk -2.49%. The VIX volatility index briefly moved above the symbolic 20 level before ending the day at a three-week high of 19.50 (+1.49pts on the day).

Central bank pricing was also affected, with futures raising the probability of a December rate cut to 70%, up from 62% the day before. Looking further out, the number of cuts priced by December 2026 rose +8.2bps to 85bps, weakening the dollar index by -0.47%. These moves came despite hawkish-leaning remarks by Fed officials. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted labour market stability and expressed caution about further rate cuts given the lack of inflation data due to the shutdown. Cleveland Fed President Hammack again struck a hawkish tone, focusing on inflation risks and suggesting that the Fed’s stance was “barely restrictive”. St Louis Fed President Musalem similarly said the policy was now "somewhere between modestly restrictive and neutral”.

With all the uncertainty around the state of the US economy, it's interesting to highlight a couple of the latest reports by our economists that go against some of the prevailing narratives. In the first (see here), our Chief US Economist Matt Luzzetti finds that labour market data do not support the narrative of labour hoarding as a driver of the recent low firing regime. In the second (see here), Peter Sidorov looks at the two-speed US economy through the lens of the credit cycle and argues that the underperforming rate-sensitive sectors are more likely to see improvement than further deterioration over the coming quarters. So food for thought.

Turning to the US shutdown, hopes for resolution swung back and forth over the past 24 hours. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has proposed a Senate vote today on a new continuing resolution that would re-open the government through January. According to reports, this would include a three-bill spending package covering some items that have been negotiated with Democrats but not the extension of expiring health subsidies. Politico reports that Democrats are expected to block today’s procedural vote, seeing Tuesday’s weak election performance by the Republicans as reducing the need to rush to give up negotiating power. Still, it’s a developing story to watch today and into the weekend. Polymarket currently assigns a 55% chance of resolution by November 15, and a 93% chance by November 30.

Over in Europe, the BoE held rates at 4% as expected, but the decision was more dovish than anticipated. The vote split 5-4, with four members favouring a 25bp cut. Governor Bailey noted that September’s 3.8% inflation was “likely to be the peak.” Our UK economist highlights that the BoE’s forward guidance now states that “if progress on disinflation continues, Bank Rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path,” with the word “careful” removed, which had been there alongside “gradual”. See our economist’s review of the meeting here and updated views. Gilt yields fell across the curve, with the 10yr down -2.9bps, a larger move than seen in European peers. 

Elsewhere in Europe, equities declined amid weak data and some renewed concerns about France. Euro Area retail sales for September fell -0.1% (vs. +0.2% expected), German industrial production rose +1.3% (vs. +3.0% expected), and UK construction PMI came in at 44.1 (vs. 46.9 expected). This contributed to the risk-off tone, with the STOXX 600 down -0.70%, the DAX -1.31%, the FTSE 100 -0.42%, and the CAC 40 -1.36%. Bond yields followed suit, with 10yr bunds (-2.3bps), OATs (-1.1bps), and BTPs (-1.1bps) all lower.

Asian markets opened very weak this morning but are recovering a bit as I type with US futures edging higher. The Kospi (-2.06%), Nikkei (-1.71%), Hang Seng (-0.92%), and S&P/ASX 200 (-0.66%) are all in negative territory but above their low. Mainland Chinese equities are fairly flat even as China’s exports contracted unexpectedly, with yoy exports at -1.1% (vs. +2.9% expected) and yoy imports at +1.0% (vs. +2.7% expected). Electrical exports were down -8% mom which hints at the fact that we might be seeing payback for earlier front loading ahead of tariffs. Mainland Chinese equities have clawed back earlier losses to be broadly flat though. S&P 500 (+0.20%) and Nasdaq (+0.28%) futures are recovering this morning and 10yr USTs are back up +1.5bps to 4.10%.

Looking ahead today, data releases include Germany and France’s September trade balances, and Canada’s October employment report. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Williams, Jefferson and Miran, the ECB’s Nagel and Elderson, and the BoE’s Pill. Earnings releases include Constellation Energy and KKR.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 08:48

Treasury Probes $9 Billion Small-Business Deals For Fraud After ATI Government Solutions Bombshell

Weeks after O'Keefe Media Group released a bombshell investigation exposing how ATI Government Solutions exploited minority-preference programs to secure $100 million in no-bid federal contracts, while subcontracting out most of the work, the Wall Street Journal reports a significant new development: the U.S. Treasury Department has launched an investigation into $9 billion in small-business contracting amid alarming concerns over fraud and abuse in preference-based programs.

Treasury investigators are focusing on pass-through companies that have misused preference-based contracting programs, including the Small Business Administration's 8(a) Business Development Program. The 8(a) program allows qualifying individuals, those who own at least 51% of their companies and have personal net worths below $850,000, to obtain no-bid federal contracts.

BREAKING: U.S. Treasury Department launches investigation into 8(a) small business contracts worth $9 billion following O’Keefe Media Group undercover sting.

Officials say firms may have funneled deals through small business “pass-through” schemes - prompting Treasury & the SBA… https://t.co/3dezCYl5lr

— James O'Keefe (@JamesOKeefeIII) November 7, 2025

Bloomberg quoted SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler as saying her team directed an audit of the 8(a) program, finding what they believe is "rampant fraud – and increasingly egregious instances of abuse." 

Loeffler noted, "This administration will not tolerate DEI-based contracting and abuse that compromises opportunity for legitimate and eligible small businesses." 

WSJ quoted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as saying, "Treasury will not tolerate fraudulent misuse of federal contracting programs," adding, "These initiatives must benefit legitimate small businesses that deliver measurable value to the government and the public."

In June, SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler launched a formal investigation into the 8(a) program following mounting allegations of fraud. Then, last month, James O'Keefe released a bombshell undercover report exposing how ATI Government Solutions exploited minority-preference programs to rake in more than $100 million in no-bid federal contracts.

$100 Billion Federal Contracting Scam Exposed: 8(a) Firm Admits to Violating Federal Law, Using Minority-Owned Status as a Front to Obtain $100M+ No-Bid Government Contracts While Outsourcing 80% of the Work.

ATI Government Solutions Contract Manager, Melayne Cromwell Admits to… pic.twitter.com/o7EQ6mKZtY

— James O'Keefe (@JamesOKeefeIII) October 20, 2025

Last month, Loeffler and Bessent jointly said the Treasury would suspend all contracting activity with ATI Government Solutions in response to O'Keefe's reporting. 

The latest data from Bloomberg Government shows that obligations tied to 8(a) vendors hit a record $41 billion in fiscal year 2024, with the Pentagon awarding about half of that. 

It's long been an open secret in the Capital Beltway that some firms use pass-through entities or front companies to secure contracts they wouldn't otherwise qualify for. This is precisely the kind of corruption the American people gave President Trump a mandate to dismantle, rooting out the parasites that leech off taxpayers.

And by the way, Dear White House:

DEAR TRUMP TEAM @WhiteHouse @RapidResponse47

Under 40 Trump Approval spiked EXACTLY when @DOGE interest spiked.

Dismantle the status quo with reckless abandon, or it's socialism for the youth. https://t.co/i2g24sZFxB pic.twitter.com/9PdNXqqTB8

— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@honestpollster) November 6, 2025

"Dismantle the status quo with reckless abandon, or it's socialism for the youth," Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Reports wrote on X. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 08:25

From Revelio Labs: Employment — October 2025

Non-farm employment measures the total employment in the US (public and private) leveraging individual level data collected from online professional profiles. The monthly change in this total employment is a proxy for number of jobs added in the economy during the month. In October, the US economy lost 9 thousand jobs, predominantly driven by employment losses in the government sector.

Click on graph for larger image.

We need the BLS data!

Food Banks All Over The US Are Being Overwhelmed By A Tsunami Of Hungry People

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

As grocery prices have risen, demand at food banks throughout the country has surged to very alarming levels.  At the end of 2024, I wrote about how demand at food banks had risen to record levels all over the United States.  Unfortunately, demand has continued to rise in 2025, and now the government shutdown has shifted America’s hunger crisis into overdrive.  

Millions of very hungry people are showing up at food banks looking for something to eat, and resources are being stretched to the limit.

There is no area of the nation that is not being affected by this crisis.

For example, it is being reported that food banks in Iowa are experiencing “record demand” during this government shutdown…

Food pantries across Iowa are seeing record demand as families wait for the federal government to restore their food assistance benefits.

So what does “record demand” look like?

Well, at one food bank in Iowa they are serving about twice as many people as usual…

While families wait, many are turning to food pantries for help. At WayPoint Resources in Waukee, the line for food stretched out the door Monday.

“We just opened at noon today. And already in that first hour, we saw double the number of people that we normally see,” said Melissa Stimple, the center’s executive director.

We are seeing similar things happen in other parts of the nation too.

In southwest Texas, one network of food banks is now serving nearly 170,000 people per week…

Eric Cooper, president and CEO of San Antonio Food Bank, which serves 29 counties in southwest Texas, said the number of families seeking help has increased since it was first announced that there would be a disruption in SNAP benefits should the government shutdown continue.

Cooper said San Antonio Food Bank, which is part of the nonprofit organization Feeding America, typically feeds 105,000 to 120,000 people per week but is now seeing close to 170,000 people per week.

When you suddenly go from serving 120,000 people per week to serving 170,000 people per week, it is going to be very difficult to have enough food for everyone.

Often those at the end of food bank lines end up with nothing, and that is why so many people are lining up early.

On Monday, the line at one Bay Area food bank “stretched all the way down the sidewalk”…

On Monday, in a parking lot of Contra Costa College in San Pablo, the line for food stretched all the way down the sidewalk.

“We’re expecting at least 500 families to come out to our distribution,” said program coordinator Geo Dinoso.

When he opened the food line, the crowd was a little hard to believe, but for Dinoso, not very surprising.

In Detroit, “dozens of cars” were “lined around the block” yesterday morning…

On Detroit’s east side, dozens of cars lined around the block at Forgotten Harvest’s Jermaine Jackson Academy drive-thru food pantry Monday morning. It was the location’s first time operating since SNAP funding lapsed this month.

Kim Lewis, who runs the site, said her group faced cold weather and rain to serve more than 250 families.

The “higher demand” was clear – volunteers described cars waiting along Gratiot Avenue hours before the pantry’s opening. Forty minutes after the site closed, the group was still loading up cars, only stopping after supplies depleted.

In Colorado, approximately 100 vehicles were lined up at a food bank in Greeley before the doors were even opened…

About 100 cars lined up along H Street near Weld Food Bank in Greeley on Monday morning before the organization opened its doors, their drivers and passengers waiting to pick up food on the third day of a lapse in funding for the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP.

Staff and volunteers worked through a typical lunch break to meet demand, maneuvering shopping carts full of food to their awaiting recipients. By the end of the day, the food bank served about 2,200 people, according to Weston Edmunds, the food bank’s director of marketing and communications.

This is what our country looks like now.

Millions of formerly middle class Americans are now in desperate need of food.

I have been ranting about the destruction of the middle class for years, but a lot of people out there didn’t take me seriously.

Now look at what has happened.

If you think that we are facing this crisis just because of the current government shutdown, you are way off.

One food bank in Dayton, Ohio was experiencing a dramatic spike in demand “long before the shutdown ever happened”…

Howard said the increased need at the Pantry started long before the shutdown ever happened, and it’s only gotten worse as a result.

“Year to date we’re 30% higher than last year. This week alone we signed up 23 new families,” she said.

The Pantry served 18,000 people in 2024, 60% of whom which were adults over 60 years old and children under 18.

As I have carefully documented, hunger has been rising in the United States for years.

And now we are rapidly getting to a point where there simply will not be enough food for everyone.

On Monday, large numbers of people lined up to get some food at a facility in Portland.  Unfortunately, those that were waiting at the end of the line faced the possibility of ending up with nothing because there just wasn’t enough food…

The situation has led to unprecedented demand at local food providers, such as the Blanchet House in Northwest Portland, where lines stretched two blocks on Monday morning as people waited in the rain for a meal.

Julia Showers, communications director for the Blanchet House, noted the unusual demand: “We’re seeing lines, historic lines. Our staff had to go out before we closed the doors and just let everyone know that we have to get a line here. Some people might not get a plate.”

The longer this government shutdown continues, the worse things will get.

The same thing could be said about our air traffic crisis.

According to ABC News, the U.S. Department of Transportation “might be forced to shut down the airspace in certain parts of the country if the government shutdown continues into next week”…

The Department of Transportation might be forced to shut down the airspace in certain parts of the country if the government shutdown continues into next week, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said on Tuesday.

“So if, if you bring us to a week from today, Democrats, you will see mass chaos,” he said. “You will see mass flight delays. You’ll see mass cancelations, and you may see us close certain parts of the airspace, because we just cannot manage it because we don’t have the air traffic controllers.”

We have never seen anything quite like this before.

Air traffic controllers are required to work without pay through the government shutdown, but vast numbers of them are choosing not to show up for work…

Nearly 50% of all major air traffic control facilities face staffing shortages, according to the Federal Aviation Administration. Air traffic controllers are required to work without pay for the duration of the shutdown.

About 13,000 air traffic controllers are currently working without pay, according to the FAA. On Friday, the agency said that 80% of New York area staff had called out.

Hopefully the government shutdown will be resolved soon and air traffic will return to normal.

But even if the government shutdown ends, America’s growing food crisis is not going to go away.

Food prices will continue to rise, and global food supplies are just going to continue to get even tighter.

There are multiple long-term trends that are playing havoc with global food production.

I warned that this would result in higher food prices in wealthy western nations, and that is precisely what has transpired.

Sadly, this is just the beginning.

We are going to continue to lose valuable top soil, fertilizer prices will continue to spike, weather patterns are only going to get crazier, and our planet will continue to become increasingly unstable.

On top of everything else, we continue to poison our air, our water and our soil in countless ways.

There is only one way that all of this is going to end, and I don’t have to tell you that it isn’t going to be pretty.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 08:05

Europe Poised To Roll Back the World's Toughest AI Laws 

The world's first comprehensive law governing the development, deployment, and use of artificial intelligence was formally adopted by the Europeans in 2024 and began taking effect later that year. However, key provisions of the AI Act may be put on hold by the European Commission amid mounting pressure from Big Tech and the Trump administration. This all comes as the West fights to stay technologically relevant in the world, fracturing into two, as China and the East develop and deploy AI of their own. 

Financial Times reporter Barbara Moens writes that the European Commission is preparing to pause parts of the AI Act as part of a new "simplification package" set to be unveiled on November 19. The move to recalibrate some of the world's strictest AI regulations follows intense lobbying from Big Tech and mounting pressure from the Trump administration.

Under the existing framework designed to promote safe, transparent, traceable, and non-discriminatory AI systems, some of the world's toughest rules, particularly those governing "high-risk" AI applications affecting safety and fundamental rights, won't take effect until August 2026. Under the draft proposal, companies that breach these provisions could receive a one-year grace period, pushing enforcement back to 2027. The Commission also plans to delay fines for transparency violations until August 2027, giving firms additional time to comply.

"The draft also looks to make the compliance burden for companies easier and centralise enforcement through its own AI office," FT's Moens noted in the report.

The plan to delay some of the AI Act could improve competitiveness against companies working on the AI application layer to deploy systems and compete against China more effectively. 

She also noted, "A number of companies, including Facebook and Instagram owner Meta, have warned that the EU's approach to regulating AI risks cutting the continent off from accessing cutting-edge services." 

If the AI Act is partially delayed, it could ease concerns that Europe's weird over regulatory obsession is crushing innovation and putting the continent at a disadvantage in the global AI race. And if European leaders are finally willing to roll back overreaching policies, they should also reconsider their disastrous green globalist agenda that has already crippled the continent into submission.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 07:45

The Risk Of AI Isn't Skynet

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith,

The risk that AI transitions from Servant to Master is dramatically appealing--Skynet!--but the real risks are in the mundane realms of the socio-economic order. As I explain in my new book Investing In Revolution, technological revolutions share the same dynamic: those profiting from the innovations push them pell-mell, without regard for future consequences, as the goal is to expand as quickly as possible to achieve market dominance.

This is entirely understandable, as pausing to assess potential pitfalls will effectively cede control to competitors.

Society--all of civilization that isn’t reducible to financial data--bears the consequences, but over a timespan far longer than the initial expansion of the technology. In other words, the immediate rewards of the technological revolution go to the fast-moving innovators while the broader consequences--both the benefits and the downsides--impact the socio-cultural-political realms over a much longer time frame.

This creates a time-response lag, where society must absorb and assess the consequences years or even decades after the initial expansion of the technology. The organizational tool of innovators is the corporation, a financial structure with a single goal--expand revenues and profits by any means available--and a quasi-military command-control-communications (a.k.a. 3C) hierarchy.

This structure meshes perfectly with markets, which price everything in the moment: markets lack mechanisms to price future consequences; they only price production, transport, currencies, materials, marketing, inventory, etc. in the present.

In contrast, society is characterized by a multitude of interests and structures in various stages of advocacy. There is no one single goal or hierarchy, and the upsides and downsides of technological changes are typically distributed very unevenly.

Those positioned to reap the rewards gain ground, those positioned to bear the brunt of negative consequences lose ground. Each will then advocate for controls or let-it-run-wild accordingly.

The American ethos favors the let-it-run-wild and pick up the pieces later approach to technological revolutions. This serves the interests of the initial innovators and speculators, who can amass great fortunes in the initial speculative frenzy to get on board. This has played out in railroads, autos, radio, TV, the Internet, and so on.

Each revolution is characterized as creative destruction the buggy whip industry is wiped out, but a larger industry is created.

Here is where correlation is confused with causation: the fact that this cycle has played out in the recent past does not make it a Law of Nature, i.e. a predictable manifestation of causation.

Which brings us to AI. AI is different: it doesn’t generate a need for more human labor as it expands, it replaces human labor. This is its implicit raison d’etre, reason to exist.

The rewards go to the initial innovators’ corporations and speculators, and the consequences fall on a society ill-prepared to assess them, much less limit them.

AI is different in another way: it generates a compelling facsimile of human characteristics and interactions, facsimiles of thought and knowledge that we take as “real” because they’re in “our language.”

But as I explain in my book Ultra-Processed Life, these facsimiles are all processed in ways we cannot discern: everything is processed in black boxes following scripts and agendas that we can’t see.

What’s presented as an accurate representation is actually an ultra-processed distillation that leaves out everything that unwieldy or unwelcome. We’re told that what’s the screen is real, but it’s not; it’s the equivalent of an orange-colored ultra-processed, sugary, salty, greasy goo being presented as a “healthy snack alternative” to a raw carrot.

What’s being lost in substituting AI’s ultra-processed facsimiles occurs beneath our perception. We don’t notice what’s been lost, and so we can no longer make a realistic assessment: that capacity has been lost.

AI is also accelerating the process of technological change, a process that’s been accelerating for 60 years. Alvin Toffler’s 1970 book Future Shock described the disorienting nature of technology-driven change, a theme updated by Douglas Rushkoff in his 2004 book, Present Shock.

Put these dynamics together and we reach this analogy: we’re children playing with matches and gasoline in a drought-stricken forest of dry deadwood. Even as the formidable resources of big-tech corporations and the state rush to secure AI supremacy, we may have it backwards: those squandering resources to build out a state-corporate Skynet “to serve humanity” are speeding our self-destruction, while those societies that limit their exposure to AI’s ultra-processed goo will emerge as the winners rather than the losers.

Just as a reminder of what’s being gambled on AI supremacy: it’s not just financial capital, it’s everything.

My new book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition) through November. Introduction (free)

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 07:20