What GAO Found Medicaid section 1115 demonstrations enable states to test new approaches to providing Medicaid coverage and services. In October 2020, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) approved Georgia’s demonstration that expanded coverage of the adult population contingent on individuals meeting requirements to work or participate in other activities, such as training. Under the demonstration, individuals must meet these work requirements as part of the initial eligibility determination and through monthly reporting. After a 2-year delay while litigation related to the demonstration was pending, Georgia opened enrollment for the demonstration in July 2023. Implementing the demonstration required a number of changes to the state’s eligibility and enrollment systems, additional outreach efforts, and other administrative activities. Administrative spending for the demonstration was $54.2 million out of the $80.3 million in total demonstration spending in the first 4.5 years, according to data reported by Georgia to CMS. The majority of the administrative spending ($47.4 million or about 88 percent) was financed by federal dollars. The federal government generally provides 50 percent of the funds for administrative activities (referred to as a 50 percent matching rate), but pays for up to 90 percent of certain administrative costs, including for IT system changes. Reported Administrative Expenditures Under Georgia’s Medicaid Demonstration, Fiscal Year 2021 Through Second Quarter of Fiscal Year 2025 Notes: Total demonstration spending for this period was $80.3 million. States generally have up to 2 years to report an expenditure, including any prior period adjustments. Data reflect expenditures, including any prior period adjustments, reported as of May 20, 2025. GAO found weaknesses in CMS’s consideration and oversight of administrative spending. No consideration during demonstration approval. CMS did not request and Georgia did not provide estimates of administrative costs during the approval process despite the agency’s policy that Medicaid demonstrations not increase federal spending over what would have been spent absent the demonstration. Approved spending at higher federal matching rates than appeared allowable. CMS approved spending for activities such as for monitoring reports, a media strategy, and branding at a 90 percent federal matching rate reserved for developing and implementing changes to IT systems. These findings are consistent with concerns GAO raised in 2019, which GAO made recommendations to address. GAO found that CMS’s demonstration approval process does not take into account the extent to which demonstrations will increase administrative costs, and that CMS provided federal funds for costs that may not have been allowable or at inappropriately high matching rates. Addressing the latter will become more important as states implement work requirements in response to legislation enacted on July 4, 2025. Why GAO Did This Study Section 1115 demonstrations are a significant component of Medicaid spending. In 2018, CMS began allowing states to test work requirements under demonstrations, but most states’ demonstrations were later terminated as a result of litigation or by CMS. The exception was Georgia where work requirements remain in place. Implementing work requirements can involve various administrative activities, with states receiving federal funds for up to 90 percent of spending for certain activities. GAO was asked to examine the administrative costs of Georgia’s demonstration testing work requirements. This report describes the (1) types and (2) amount of administrative spending for Georgia’s demonstration. It also examines the extent to which CMS considered administrative costs at approval, and the agency’s oversight of administrative spending after approval. GAO reviewed demonstration expenditure data for fiscal year 2021 through the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, demonstration documentation, and past GAO findings and related recommendations. GAO also interviewed officials from CMS and Georgia.

Ethereum Un-Staking Queue Goes 'Parabolic': What Does That Mean For Price?

Authored by Nancy Lubale via CoinTelegraph.com,

The amount of Ether in the queue waiting to be unstaked has surged to its highest level, as investors may be looking to cash in on yearly profits.

Ether’s exit queue hits record $12B ETH

Ethereum’s exit queue surpassed 2.6 million ETH worth $12 billion last week, with a 44-day wait time.

This marked the largest amount of Ether ever set for withdrawal by the network’s validators, who are responsible for adding new blocks and verifying transactions in proposed blocks, playing a vital role in securing the Ethereum blockchain.

Data from ValidatorQueue noted that the number of active validators was above 1.05 million, with 29.4% of the total ETH supply staked, i.e., around 35.6 million ETH. 

“Ethereum staking exit queue goes parabolic,” macro analyst MartyPary commented on the largest validator exodus in crypto history.  

Number of Ether queued for exit. Source: Validator Queue

While this does not mean that all the validators are looking to sell their holdings, a significant portion of the over $12 billion may be offloaded to lock in profits, notably as the Ether price has risen 97% over the past 12 months.

“The Ethereum exit queue is at a record high, with huge amounts of $ETH now waiting to exit staking,” said crypto YouTuber Lark Davis in an X post, adding:

“Heavy sell pressure incoming.”

Meanwhile, the Ethereum staking entry queue reached its lowest level in four weeks, adding to fears that a surge in the exit queue could lead to a major sell-off.

More than 512,755 ETH, worth around $2.3 billion, were waiting to be staked at the time of writing, down from 959,717 ETH on Sept. 5, indicating a slowdown in demand for staking Ether.

Strong institutional demand allays ETF sell-off fears

Increasing accumulation and buying strength from Ether treasury companies and spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are absorbing much of the selling pressure. 

Data from strategicethreserve.xyz highlights that collective holdings of strategic reserves and ETFs have surged 116% since July 1, climbing to 11,762,594 ETH from 5,445,458 ETH.

The sharp increase underscores a swift influx of Ether supply into the hands of major institutional and corporate players.

Ether treasuries and ETF holdings reserve. Source: strategicethreserve.xyz

The majority of these entities have or will stake the asset for additional yields for their strategies, which may boost the entry queue in the coming weeks.

Another bullish narrative is tied to the potential launch of ETH staking ETFs. This implies that some investors may be freeing up liquidity to re-enter these products later, effectively reshuffling their exposure without exiting the ETH market.

While the SEC’s final deadline for approval is set for April 2026, popular analyst Axel Bitblaze said the green light could come much sooner, possibly as early as October 2025.

“I know we have been waiting for the ETH ETFs approval, but now it’s only a matter of time,” the analyst wrote in a Tuesday X post, adding:

“BlackRock's ETH staking approval next deadline is in October, and I think the approval will most likely happen.”

Capital continued to flow into crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) last week, with Ethereum investment products attracting $646 million in inflows, marking a return of institutional investor appetite for ETH.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 09:25

More Than 10 Russian Refineries Have Been Hit By Ukrainian Drones Since Early August

Another day, another Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian oil facility. This time a major Gazprom oil and petrochemical facility in the republic of Bashkortostan was struck on Thursday.

"Two drones attacked the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat enterprise," Bashkortostan regional head Radiy Khabirov stated on Telegram. He called it a "terrorist attack" and described that security guards opened fire on the drones while they were inbound, though there were no injuries in the attack.

Via Reuters

Videos from the scene showed thick black smoke rising above the facility, as emergency crews responded to battle the blaze and assess the damage - which is uncertain.

Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery is one of the country's largest, ranked as Russia's 10th-largest and processing around 10 million metric tons of oil annually, and a huge array of petroleum and chemical products. This isn't the first time it was struck by drones in an attack, given an incident which happened in 2024.

At least ten separate Russian refineries have come under cross-border drone attack from Ukraine since only early August, which has served to reduce nation-wide refining output by nearly 20% - or roughly 1.1 million barrels per day - and wholesale oil prices in Russia have risen sharply.

Gazprom refinery in Russia's Bashkortostan is having a rough morning. pic.twitter.com/d9iK0otLEi

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) September 18, 2025

Ukraine's military and media have classified Russia's refineries as essentially military targets, given they prop up funding of the armed forces as they execute Putin's 'special military operation'.

For example there was this early August statement from Ukrainian media:

According to Ukraine's General Staff, the ELOU-AVT-6 primary oil processing unit, with an estimated annual capacity of 6 million tons, was hit.

The plant, which has a capacity of 13.8 million tons per year, was previously struck by Ukrainian drones on Aug. 2, forcing two of its three main refining units to halt operations.

Ukraine's military said the facility plays a role in supporting Russia's armed forces.

This reveals a concerted effort to permanently damage the Kremlin's ability to fund the war. Newsmax has previously observed that "The impact has been felt nationwide. Motorists face fuel shortages, long lines, and record prices."

Salavat oil refinery in Bashkortostan lies more than 800 miles from the Ukrainian border...

Via X

The report noted further, "Wholesale gasoline prices have jumped 54% since January, prompting authorities to suspend exports and impose rationing in some regions."

Meanwhile, according to TASS on Thursday, "The Russian Finance Ministry is budgeting for a gradual decrease in dependence on oil and gas, with the oil cutoff price in the budget rule planned to fall to $55 per barrel by 2030, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said at the Moscow Financial Forum."

Siluanov said, "In order to make finances sustainable, we propose and budget for a reduction in the budget’s dependence on various restrictions, be they price or volume, on oil and gas revenues."

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 09:05

House Rejects Bid To Censure Rep. Ilhan Omar Over Charlie Kirk Comments

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

The House of Representatives on Sept. 17 rejected a bid to censure Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) for comments she made about conservative influencer Charlie Kirk following his assassination.

The censure motion, brought by Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), would have also stripped Omar of her assignments on the Education and the Workforce Committee and the Budget Committee.

It was tabled in a 214–213 vote. Four Republicans joined all Democrats in voting to drop consideration of the measure.

The motion regarded the remarks Omar made about Kirk during an interview on Zeteo.

During the interview, Omar criticized those she said were “people who are out there talking about him just wanting to have a civil debate.”

“There is nothing more [expletive] to completely pretend his words and actions have not been recorded and in existence for the last decade or so,” the lawmaker said.

Mace’s resolution also cited Omar’s repost of a video on X that described Kirk as a “reprehensible human being.”

Mace condemned Republicans who voted to table the measure.

“Democrats and these 4 ‘Republicans’ chose Ilhan Omar over decency, over justice, and over Charlie Kirk’s family,” Mace wrote in a post on X after the vote.

“They showed us exactly who they are. Never forget it.”

Omar, meanwhile, thanked her House colleagues “for having my back and not furthering lies on the House floor.

“Appreciate them safeguarding first amendment protections and the usage of the censure,” she said in a post on X after the vote.

One of the four Republicans who voted to table the measure, Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.), defended his vote in a post on X.

“The 7 Articles and 27 Amendments of our Constitution are not only to be followed when it serves your purpose,” Mills wrote.

“This is a [First Amendment] issue. We may not like or agree with what someone says, but that does not mean we should deny their [First Amendment] Right.”

Reps. Mike Flood (R-Neb.), Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.), and Tom McClintock (R-Calif.) also voted to table the measure.

After Mace unveiled her resolution to censure Omar, Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) responded with a countermeasure to censure Mills over allegations involving his personal and professional conduct.

Earlier this month, lawmakers in the lower chamber also rejected an effort to censure Rep. LaMonica McIver (D-N.J.) and strip her of her committee assignments after she was indicted on federal assault charges following a clash with federal officers at an immigrant detention center in Newark, New Jersey.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 08:45

The DOL reported:

In the week ending September 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 263,000 to 264,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 240,500 to 240,750.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 240,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

Cable Dips As BoE Holds Rates Steady (As Expected), Slows QT Summary:

• In a 7-2 decision, BoE chose to hold rates steady, with long-term doves Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor voting for a cut.

• It will continue with a “cautious and gradual” approach to any future rate cuts – no change in the language there.

• Quantitative tightening will slow from £100 billion a year to £70 billion, and the Bank will skew those sales to shorter-dated maturities.

• The BOE’s inflation expectations for the year are broadly unchanged, and it noted slightly better-than-expected growth in the second quarter, but said the economy remains subdued.

• The market reaction has been fairly muted.

The Bank of England held its key interest rate steady Thursday (as widely expected), just a day after the Fed cut borrowing costs for the first time in nine months.

Policymakers have lowered rates five times since August 2024, cutting at three-month intervals.

At the central bank's last meeting two rounds of voting were required for the first time since the Monetary Policy Committee was launched 28 years ago, with MPC member Alan Taylor switching his vote to break a deadlock in favor of a quarter-point cut.

This time around, seven of the MPC's nine members voted to hold rates steady, while two voted to cut borrowing costs by a quarter of a point.

will continue with a “cautious and gradual” approach to any future rate cuts – no change in the language there.

The BoE revealed that it will reduce its Asset Purchase Facility (APF) by a total £70 bn in the year October 2025 to September 2026 from a total £100 bn in the year just ending.

Of that, £53 bn will be through passive run-off (£87 bn this year) and £17 bn will be in active sales (£9.3 bn this year).

There was a three-way split on QT with Pill preferring the maintain the current pace of £100 bn/year (and hence a much faster pace of active sales).

Mann wanted a slower pace of £62 bn, which would have left active sales the same in the coming year as last.

As Bloomberg's Jacob Reid reports, an important part of the QT announcement isn’t just the scale of the slowdown -- it’s their decision to sell even fewer longer-dated gilts than other maturities, in a change of previous policy.

About 20% of the of the required sales will be bonds with maturities of more than 20 years, with the remainder split evenly between short- and medium-term debt.

It mirrors the government, which is also selling fewer long-dated bonds, after the 30-year yield spiked to a three-decade high, and demand for such securities has waned from traditional buyers such as pension funds. 

Governor Andrew Bailey said the new sales profile would “minimise the impact on gilt market conditions.”

The bank also noted that “structural changes” in the bond market had reduced demand for long-term debt which “could pose a risk that QT would have a greater impact on market functioning than previously.”

“This is a pragmatic decision from policymakers, which should help alleviate some modest pressure at the long-end of the curve,” said Michael Brown, a strategist at Pepperstone in London.

The market reaction is largely muted for now with cable falling modestly on the statement. The FTSE 100 has ticked up from a lunchtime low, and gilt yields are ever so slightly down at the shorter end of the curve. Traders have slightly boosted easing bets.

The guidance from the BoE remains intact – interest rates are likely to drop further, but Governor Bailey said the moves would need to be made “gradually and carefully”.

The BoE said it remained focused on squeezing out existing and emerging inflation.

UBS notes that wage growth remains a key problem for the Bank of England:

The BoE’s base case is that UK wage growth will slow down, and from there, services sector inflation will slow. But it isn’t certain how long that process will take. Further, the BoE is concerned that the recent increase of inflation and the potential it rises further in September will actually put some upward pressure on wages. On top of that, it raised the prospect of higher food prices keeping headline inflation upwards.

In other words, while the core view is that wages and hence inflation will slow, there is a significant risk that assumption is wrong and quite the reverse happens with a low-level price/wage spiral occurring.

The broad view from the Committee was: “In general, upside risks around medium-term inflationary pressures remained prominent in the Committee’s assessment.”

The BoE noted that the labour market had loosened, but it wasn’t sure that sufficient slack had opened to mitigate inflationary pressures.

Finally, The BoE notes that trade policy uncertainty was estimated to have increased slightly since the Committee’s August meeting, albeit it was still significantly lower than earlier in the year. They note aspects of US tariff policies were facing domestic legal challenge in coming weeks.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 07:50

Intel Shares Soar 30% After Nvidia Agrees To Invest $5 Billion

A little over a month ago, we correctly predicted that the US government would purchase a stake in troubled chipmaker Intel (a few days later, the Trump admin unveiled it would acquire a 10% stake in the chipmaker, sending its price soaring).

The Pentagon took a stake in US rare earth miner MP Materials... when will it do the same with Intel

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 7, 2025

But not even we could predict what happened next: Intel shares are soaring in premarket trading - and if gains of 30% hold until the close it would mark the largest daily increase on record in Bloomberg data, dating back to the early 1980s... 

... on news that Nvidia will invest $5BN in Intel at $23.28 per share, as part of a deal to jointly develop and manufacture new chips for PCs and data centres. 

The collaboration centers on integrating NVIDIA's NVLink technology with Intel's x86 CPU ecosystem, combining NVIDIA's AI and accelerated computing strengths with Intel's leadership in CPUs, process technology, and advanced packaging.

Highlights of the partnership:  

• Data Centers: Intel will build NVIDIA-custom x86 CPUs, which NVIDIA will integrate into its AI infrastructure platforms.

• Personal Computing: Intel will produce new x86 SoCs incorporating NVIDIA RTX GPU chiplets, powering next-gen PCs with combined CPU-GPU integration.

The partnership also includes Nvidia investing $5 billion in Intel stock at $23.28 per share, pending regulatory approvals. 

Comments from Nvidia and Intel executives on the partnership:

• Nividia CEO Jensen Huang: "AI is powering a new industrial revolution and reinventing every layer of the computing stack — from silicon to systems to software. At the heart of this reinvention is NVIDIA's CUDA architecture. This historic collaboration tightly couples NVIDIA's AI and accelerated computing stack with Intel's CPUs and the vast x86 ecosystem — a fusion of two world-class platforms. Together, we will expand our ecosystems and lay the foundation for the next era of computing."

• Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan: "Intel's x86 architecture has been foundational to modern computing for decades — and we are innovating across our portfolio to enable the workloads of the future. Intel's leading data center and client computing platforms, combined with our process technology, manufacturing and advanced packaging capabilities, will complement NVIDIA's AI and accelerated computing leadership to enable new breakthroughs for the industry. We appreciate the confidence Jensen and the NVIDIA team have placed in us with their investment and look forward to the work ahead as we innovate for customers and grow our business."

Nvidia and Intel have been rivals for decades. But Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s chief executive, hailed a “historic collaboration” to combine its graphics processing units, which dominate the market for artificial intelligence infrastructure, with Intel’s general-purpose chips. 

Today's announcement follows less than a month after the Trump administration shocked markets when it acquired a stake in Intel at $20.47 per share. As part of that agreement, the US acquired 433.3 million newly issued Intel common shares, equivalent to approximately a 10% ownership stake. 

Do valuations matter? 

Recall Trump recently said, "I will also help those companies that make such lucrative deals with the United States. ... I love seeing their stock price go up, making the USA RICHER, AND RICHER ... More jobs for America!!! Who would not want to make deals like that?"

Trump wasn't kidding: the U.S. Govt's Intel stake is already up 14% in under a month relative to the NVDA valuation round (translating to a 168% annualized gain) and is up more than 50% relative to the market price, which has soared by 30% this morning on the news of the historic investment.

And with this bullseye, US Capital LLC is now outperforming about 95% of all hedge funds this year. 

The next question: what company is next (spoiler: LEU). 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 07:35

What GAO Found For the seventh consecutive year since the Department of Defense (DOD) was required to undergo full-scope audits, DOD received a disclaimer of opinion on its financial statement audit in fiscal year 2024, meaning DOD could not provide auditors with sufficient, appropriate evidence needed to support information in its financial statements due to ineffective systems and processes. The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024 requires DOD to receive an unmodified (clean) audit opinion by December 31, 2028. DOD’s balance sheet, a principal financial statement, is a snapshot of its financial position at a point in time—showing its assets (what it owns) and liabilities (what it owes). Reliable balance sheet data support informed decision-making and improve mission operations. In fiscal year 2024, DOD’s balance sheet included information from 67 DOD components, making consolidation a complex process. Although DOD received a disclaimer of opinion on its DOD-wide financial statements in fiscal year 2024, 11 DOD components received clean audit opinions. These components contributed $1.8 trillion of DOD’s total reported assets (42.8 percent) and $3.1 trillion of its reported liabilities (72.2 percent). However, nearly all of DOD’s total reported assets attributable to components with clean opinions related to the Military Retirement Fund. Similarly, nearly all assets attributable to components that received disclaimers of opinion related to the Army, Navy, and Air Force. Percentage of DOD’s Total Reported Assets Related to Each Type of Audit Opinion at the Component Level, Fiscal Year 2024 Additionally, in fiscal year 2024, DOD’s Office of Inspector General identified 28 DOD-wide material weaknesses, which hinder sustainable business processes and a functioning internal control environment for its financial management operations. GAO’s analysis showed that several identified DOD-wide material weaknesses directly affected $2.1 trillion (50.3 percent) of DOD’s reported assets and $146.9 billion (3.4 percent) of its reported liabilities, indicating that there is an increased risk that these amounts are materially misstated. However, pervasive material weaknesses may affect all balance sheet data. Why GAO Did This Study DOD reported over $4.1 trillion in assets on its balance sheet as of September 30, 2024. DOD’s assets represent a significant portion of the federal government’s reported total assets. The ability to properly account for and report these assets would improve DOD’s ability to successfully carry out its mission and is critical to achieve an unmodified (clean) audit opinion. However, DOD remains the only major federal agency that has yet to receive a clean audit opinion on its financial statements. This not only impedes DOD’s financial transparency but that of the U.S. government as a whole. DOD’s financial statement audits promote accountability and transparency in how DOD manages its money and help identify financial and operational issues. DOD obtaining a clean audit opinion is important to ensure that information in its financial statements is reliable for informed decision-making. This report, developed in connection with our mandate to audit the U.S. government’s consolidated financial statements, provides insight on the auditability of DOD’s balance sheet as of September 30, 2024. This report presents information on (1) component audit opinions as they relate to DOD’s reported total assets and liabilities and (2) DOD-wide identified material weaknesses as they relate to reported total assets and liabilities. GAO reviewed the fiscal year 2024 agency financial reports for DOD and its components to determine which audit opinions each received and what identified material weaknesses were present DOD-wide and at the component level. GAO analyzed the amounts (1) related to each type of audit opinion at the component level and (2) directly affected by identified material weaknesses. For more information, contact Asif A. Khan at khana@gao.gov.

What GAO Found Service organizations provide centralized services, such as payroll, to user entities (customers) that are important for managing the Department of Defense's (DOD) financial operations. Customers retain responsibility for the processes involved in these services. Therefore, customers and their financial statement auditors need to understand the design and operating effectiveness of service organizations' controls over such processes. System and Organization Controls 1 (SOC 1) reports can help them do so. SOC 1 reports give service organizations a basis for improving their operating processes and controls by identifying deficiencies. They can also provide customers and their financial statement auditors reasonable assurance about whether a service organization's controls described in the report were suitably designed and operated effectively to achieve the control objectives. GAO found that the number of DOD's service organization SOC 1 reports issued for fiscal years 2020 through 2024 ranged from 25 (2020) to 30 (2023). Additionally, the SOC 1 audit opinions, which were either unmodified (or clean) or modified, changed over this period. The deficiencies that contributed to modified audit opinions were primarily in the areas of logical access controls (which limit access to data and IT), configuration management (which identifies and manages changes to IT), segregation of duties (which ensures that one individual does not control all critical stages of a process), and processing controls (which ensure that IT transactions are authorized and errors are resolved). Further, service organization officials identified ongoing challenges in achieving unmodified audit opinions on their SOC 1 reports, such as transitioning to a new inventory management system. To address the identified deficiencies, most of the service organizations whose SOC 1 reports GAO selected for further review had performed root cause analyses; however, the methods used to document their analyses varied. In response to a GAO recommendation, in January 2025, DOD updated its guidance instructing DOD service organizations to document root cause analysis. This will help ensure that service organizations are taking appropriate actions to resolve the underlying causes of deficiencies identified in SOC 1 reports. GAO will monitor DOD's implementation of this guidance. In addition to updating guidance on root cause analysis, to address DOD's Service Organizations material weakness, the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) has, among other things, developed a standard operating procedure to help customers monitor their service organizations. Why GAO Did This Study DOD has the largest discretionary budget authority of any agency in the federal government—$920 billion in fiscal year 2024.Yet it is the only major federal agency to have never achieved an unmodified audit opinion on its agencywide financial statements. For fiscal year 2024, DOD's agencywide financial statement auditor reported 28 material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting, including one related to DOD's use of service organizations. This report discusses auditors' opinions in DOD service organizations' fiscal years 2020 through 2024 SOC 1 reports and the actions DOD service organizations took to address any deficiencies identified in those reports. GAO is also providing information on DOD's efforts to address its Service Organizations material weakness. GAO reviewed DOD's policies and procedures related to the SOC 1 process and service organization SOC 1 reports for fiscal years 2020 through 2024. Additionally, to evaluate actions that DOD service organizations have taken to address the deficiencies, GAO selected eight DOD SOC 1 reports for further review. GAO also interviewed DOD, service organization, service auditor, and customer officials. For more information, contact Asif Khan at khana@gao.gov.

China's Regulatory Recalibration: Drops Google Antitrust Probe, Crosshairs Now On Nvidia

China has concluded its antitrust investigation into Google's Android empire in the world's largest handset market, a move that should be viewed as a tactical concession in U.S.-China trade talks and TikTok negotiations.

President Trump and President Xi are set to discuss trade on Friday, with negotiations for TikTok still underway. At the same time, Beijing has tightened pressure on Nvidia, banning major Chinese tech firms from buying certain AI chips earlier this week. 

The Financial Times reports that the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has terminated its competition investigation into Google, which was formally opened in February and focused on the Android operating system and its impact on domestic brands, including Oppo and Xiaomi.

"Drop one case but seize the other," said one person familiar with SAMR operations, adding, "China is trying to narrow its retaliatory targets to make them more potent."

On Monday, SAMR, China's top market regulator, ruled that Nvidia had violated anti-monopoly laws in its acquisition of Mellanox Technologies, an Israeli-American networking products supplier. The antitrust review began in 2019. 

By Wednesday, the Cyberspace Administration barred Alibaba, ByteDance, and other tech firms from purchasing Nvidia's AI chips, including the RTX Pro 6000D, which was custom-built for the Chinese market. Domestic chips, mostly, achieved the same performance as Nvidia's model. 

"Google barely has any meaningful business in China — this is purely a symbolic gesture of goodwill," Vey-Sern Ling, a managing director at Union Bancaire Privee, told Bloomberg. "Every favor is counted, even those that don't cost anything."

China's regulatory recalibration to focus on Nvidia comes as Beijing and Washington ramp up negotiations over TikTok, with Trump scheduled to speak with Xi tomorrow.

Mounting Chinese pressure on Nvidia comes as the chart below shows that upside price action has stalled since mid-August. The $180 level is the current resistance.

Crypto czar David Sacks lists major China news in the AI race: 

There was major news from China in the AI race this week:
1. Huawei introduced a new AI chip to compete with Nvidia.
2. The Chinese government instructed Chinese companies to stop buying certain Nvidia AI chips.

Taken together, the message is clear: China is not desperate for… pic.twitter.com/KcrrI7WJCs

— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) September 18, 2025

. . . 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 07:15

Why This Matters In 2004, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) began plans to replace buildings at its Y-12 in Oak Ridge, Tennessee to support processing uranium for nuclear weapons and naval reactor fuel. NNSA expects the new Uranium Processing Facility to be fully operational in 2034. Until then, NNSA will continue using Building 9212, which was built in 1945 and predates modern safety codes. GAO Key Takeaways NNSA received approval to re-baseline its Uranium Processing Facility project in December 2024 at a cost estimate of $10.35 billion—adding nearly $4 billion and an 8-year delay to reach full operations. In January 2023, NNSA identified root causes and factors contributing to the cost increases and schedule delays. For example, NNSA found poor contractor performance, late notice of cost overruns, and limited workforce availability. NNSA’s contractor estimates that it will costs about $463 million to safely continue operations in Building 9212 until 2035—about a year after the new facility is expected to be fully operational. Some NNSA officials acknowledged increasing risks of continuing to rely on this building, which has degrading infrastructure and does not meet modern nuclear safety codes for earthquakes or high-wind events. NNSA has a comprehensive plan to continue safe operations in other aging buildings that were originally planned for replacement by the new facility but were scoped out of the project in 2012. In contrast, NNSA does not have a comprehensive plan to safely operate Building 9212 to accommodate the new facility’s delay. A plan would provide consistent information to better manage tradeoffs and address risks to continued safe operations in Building 9212. The New Uranium Processing Facility Under Construction at Y-12 National Security Complex, Tennessee How GAO Did This Study We reviewed NNSA’s 2023 root cause analyses related to project cost and schedule overruns. We analyzed information on the impact of the project delay on NNSA’s mission. We conducted a site visit to the Y-12 National Security Complex to observe construction of the new facility and conditions at existing buildings.

What GAO Found All 23 Joint Professional Military Education (JPME) programs GAO surveyed reported that they include varying degrees of nuclear deterrence content in their intermediate- and senior-level curricula, including incorporating mandatory topics identified in JPME guidance. However, the Department of Defense (DOD) has not explicitly defined nuclear deterrence in the guidance to help JPME programs develop nuclear deterrence content. Including an explicit definition of nuclear deterrence in the guidance could help JPME program officials facilitate a shared understanding of the concept, which would better prepare JPME students for joint assignments related to nuclear deterrence missions. Selected Defense Schools’ Core Courses at the Intermediate- and Senior-Levels with Nuclear Deterrence Content College or university Number of core courses Number of core courses with nuclear deterrence content National Defense University 37 12 National Defense University - Joint Forces Staff College 10 7 National Intelligence University 5 1 Army Command and General Staff College 17 5 Army War College 29 6 Naval War College 10 4 Air University 30 19 Marine Corps University 28 9 Space Force - Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies 13 8 GAO analysis of DOD information provided in response to GAO survey. | GAO-25-107416 In response to DOD requirements, JPME programs have begun developing learning outcomes and objectives for their JPME curricula that include a focus on nuclear topics, such as nuclear deterrence. However, GAO found the time frame for the JPME programs to implement DOD’s outcomes-based military education system is unclear, and the military services had varying understandings of the required time frame for implementation ranging from 2027 to 2029. Setting a specific time frame for full implementation of its outcomes-based military education system could help DOD implement the effort and meet the educational needs of the joint force for contemporary nuclear deterrence. Why GAO Did This Study The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review emphasizes the importance of supporting the professional development of service members working in and supporting the nuclear field. Additionally, DOD has recently shifted from a topics-based approach to an outcomes-based approach to monitor and assess student learning for key topics covered in JPME curricula, including nuclear deterrence. A Senate Armed Services Committee report accompanying a bill for the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024 included a provision for GAO to assess DOD’s JPME system, including the curriculum involving nuclear deterrence. GAO evaluated, among other things, the extent that JPME programs have 1) included nuclear deterrence content in JPME, and 2) developed learning outcomes that include nuclear deterrence. For this report, GAO reviewed JPME programs’ curricula and conducted a web-based survey of the education institutions that manage the 23 intermediate- and senior-level JPME programs. GAO also reviewed policy, guidance, and other documents, and interviewed cognizant officials.

Rothschild Family Exploring Sale Of Their Stake In The Economist Magazine

British magnate Lynn Forester de Rothschild is considering the sale of a long held family stake in The Economist magazine.  Rothschild has hired advisers at Lazard to explore selling a 20% stake for as much as £400m, according to Bloomberg. 

Any sale would represent the most dramatic change in ownership for the 182-year-old weekly since 2015, when British education publisher Pearson sold the majority of its 50% stake alongside its sale of The Financial Times.  The magazine was founded in 1843 and has enjoyed Rothschild investment ever since. 

However, overall readership has been in decline for at least a decade, which is the likely reason for the sale of shares by longtime benefactors.  In 2015 The Economist maintained an audience of 1.6 million; that has fallen to 1.2 million in 2025, similar to reader numbers the outlet held in the early 2000s. 

The Economist has grown increasingly and openly left-leaning in that time period, with a distinct hostility towards the Trump Administration.  Headlines such as "Donald Trump Is Unpopular. Why Is It So Hard To Stand Up To Him?", "The Sinister Brilliance Of Donald Trump’s Security Theatre" and "Donald Trump’s Awful Trade Policy Will Outlast Him" have become a common theme for the publication.  

It should come as no surprise, but The Economist is also aggressively globalist in its ideological bent with numerous articles warning of potential doom should the current order be disrupted by populism, international trade restrictions or a focus on domestic production over outsourcing.  They also continue to defend mass immigration to the west from third world nations, exploiting the common fallacies used by woke progressives, including the claim that western economies cannot survive without population growth sourced from migration.  

These arguments commonly use GDP expansion data as "proof" that mass immigration improves western economies.  In reality, GDP in the west is calculated to include a large percentage of government spending.  As migrants enter the US or Europe, around 60% (or more) immediately tap into government subsidies and welfare programs.  This increases government spending, and thus, increases GDP (directly and indirectly). 

Federal and state government spending in the US accounts for at least 30% of total national GDP.  This is why states like California, with their open borders and sanctuary status, seem to enjoy superior GDP numbers - They spend more taxpayer dollars on illegal immigrants, thereby driving up their GDP.   

It's not legitimate economic improvement, it's wealth redistribution on a global scale. It's a scam.  This is just one of the many false narratives promoted by The Economist over the years.

The Economist is also well known for its creepy predictive annual covers, which some people believe are rife with symbolism and secret messages.  Others suggest the magazine is a platform for globalists like the Rothschilds to test the waters on Orwellian policies.  Take a look at this cover from 1988 stating "Get ready for a world currency" (2018 just happened to coincide with the global proliferation of digital currencies and crypto):

As readership in corporate media dwindles and more people turn to alternative sources on the web, legacy publications like The Economist will face numerous obstacles to growth in the next five years.  The Rothschilds are well known for their "uncanny" ability to jump ship on bad investments before a greater plunge.  It would appear that The Economist's long relationship with the family is no longer enough to keep them interested.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 06:55

My morning train WFH reads:

• Hedge Funds Have a Reputation for Ruthlessness. Dmitry Balyasny Took a Different Approach. The Soviet immigrant and former day trader is competing head-to-head with bigger multistrategy rivals. (Institutional Investor)

• The Two-Speed Economy Is Back as Low-Income Americans Give Up Gains: High-earners and older Americans are faring better than ever, while fortunes are sliding again for low-wage and young workers. (Wall Street Journal) see also Thinking About the Role of Rich People: What is the specific role of the stock market itself as an engine driving growth and consumption. To what degree is spending sustained because there is some upper tranche of consumers sitting on huge financial market gains that are separate from their nominal income? To what degree does the US economy literally need the stock market to go up in order to keep growing? (Bloomberg)

• Prediction markets are booming. Oversight is barely there. Prediction markets once lived on the academic fringe. Now they’re trading billions on politics, sports, and celebrity gossip — under rules never designed for retail gamblers. (Citation Needed)

• Why is TikTok dangerous? Consider this scenario. The White House has granted another reprieve. Every day the app continues operating is a threat. (Washington Post)

• Lilly’s Obesity Pill Will Have Far-Reaching Effect, Doctors Say. Eli Lilly & Co.’s obesity pill achieved weight loss of 11.2% in adults with obesity and had side effects in line with the shots available today, doctors said. The tablet will make it possible to treat many more patients because it will be easier to produce, easier to use, and eventually perhaps also cheaper, the doctors said. Lilly’s pill is a small molecule that can be made quickly and cheaply and can be taken with less regard to food and drink, unlike Novo’s pill which is a version of the same peptide as its shots. (Bloomberg)

• The old SF tech scene is dead. What it’s morphing into is far more sinister. Column: San Francisco’s absurd, redundant startups are a relic of the past, features reporter Ariana Bindman writes. (SF Gate)

• How Trump’s Provocative Economist Crashed the Federal Reserve: Stephen Miran is poised to become first sitting White House official to join modern Fed’s board. (Wall Street Journal)

• Moon helium deal is biggest purchase of natural resources from space. The feasibility of moon mining is not yet proven, but the future of supercomputing may depend on the ability to extract Helium-3 from the lunar surface. (Washington Post)

• AI Startup Founders Tout a Winning Formula—No Booze, No Sleep, No Fun: To reach the dream of creating a trillion-dollar company, the 20-somethings flocking to San Francisco give up everything but their laptops. (Wall Street Journal)

• He is the best pitcher in baseball. He wants to be even more. Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes is poised to win his first Cy Young Award at 23. At a pivotal time for the sport, his impact will extend beyond the field. (Washington Post) see also The Batting Champion Who’s Barely Hitting .300: Ted Williams, Tony Gwynn… Trea Turner?! The Phillies shortstop leads the NL in batting average despite hitting just .305 this season. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Jaime Magyera, Head of U.S. Wealth & Retirement Business at BlackRock. She has driven the firms adoption of alternatives as a fast growing part of the Blackrock platform for advisors and RIAs. The firm manages over $11 trillion in client assets, and Magyera is a Wealth and Retirement divisions are a substantial portion of that.

Fed cutting rates while animal spirits are rampant brings to mind the post-LTCM easing cycle in late 1998

Source: @TimmerFidelity

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The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

German State Media Have Systematically Slandered Charlie Kirk Since His Assassination

Authored by 'eugyppius' via 'A Plague Chronicle',

This woman is Dunja Hayali.

She is known to millions of Germans as the anchor for the ZDF public news programme heute (“today”).

The day after Charlie Kirk’s assassination, Hayali glossed the story by conceding that “there is no justification for those groups celebrating [Kirk’s] death,” before deploring without any specific reference or citation “his often abhorrent, racist, sexist and misanthropic statements.” She proceeded to call Kirk a “radical religious conspiracy theorist” who nevertheless “struck a chord with many people,” given his large following and his “well-attended” events.

Later, Hayali appeared on a state media podcast, where she again with no evidence attacked Kirk as “too radical, too racist, misanthropic and misogynistic” and “simply inhumane.” She said that while “violence cannot be a solution,” “you don’t have to feel sympathy or pity” in connection to his violent death. Instead of offering condolences or regret for his murder, she advised that it would be better to “just shut up for a moment and perhaps not say anything at all.”

Following a massive public outcry, Hayali has declared herself the victim of a right-wing hate mob and said she will take a few days off.

This man is Elmar Theveßen.

He is the Washington D.C. correspondent also for the state media broadcaster ZDF, and he is routinely presented to the German public as an expert on all things American.

The day after Charlie Kirk’s assassination, Theveßen appeared on Markus Lanz’s eponymous political talkshow before a nationwide audience to peddle a series of lies about the recently deceased:

Theveßen: [Kirk] has very, very strong right-wing convictions. Let me give you a few examples. For example, he said that homosexuals should be stoned to death (...). He said that black people are taking jobs away from white people because of the policies of the Democrats in recent years. He said that if you’re sitting in an aeroplane with a black pilot, you should be afraid.

Lanz: Have I understood you correctly, he said homosexuals should be stoned?

Theveßen: Yes, of course he’s referring to the Bible, when he says that Christianity should be taken literally. He’s not applied this to modern times, which is actually, um, largely, well of course. But you can say these are racist statements, these are anti-minority statements, and it’s also true, clearly, he belongs to the right-wing radicals in the USA...

Theveßen repeated the notorious falsehood that Kirk advocated stoning homosexuals to death in two other podcast appearances on 11 September. This was not an isolated slip-up. As everyone now knows, of course, Kirk had merely insisted Old Testament exhortations to love one’s neighbour do not imply any biblical endorsement of homosexuality because they stand alongside much harsher provisions, like that at Leviticus 20:13. Theveßen’s other statements are also crude mischaracterisations of Kirk’s opposition to minority hiring preferences and his criticism of the Federal Aviation Administration’s efforts to relax merit-based hiring standards for Air Traffic Control in favour of a (more minority-friendly) “Biographical Questionnaire.”

Were Charlie Kirk still alive, he could request that charges be brought against Theveßen for slander, and his widow could probably still file a complaint under section 189 of the German criminal code, which prohibits “Defiling the memory of the dead.” Of course, nobody thinks this will happen, which is why Theveßen has decided to trifle with the truth in this case.

In response to inquiries from BILD, Theveßen said that he “regrets not having been more detailed,” but naturally he stopped short of apologising. After I and others brought Theveßen’s remarks to the attention of the U.S. State Department (along with another podcast appearance in which Theveßen implied that Stephen Miller was a neo-Nazi), Richard Grenell called for authorities to revoke his work visa …

… and the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau replied with this ominous image:

Mysteriously, the ordinarily voluble Theveßen has gone silent.

This woman is Caren Miosga; she hosts a popular Sunday evening political talkshow for ARD, another German state media broadcaster. This past Sunday, Miosga interviewed the leading Left Party politician (and TikTok star) Heidi Reichinnek:

Among other things, the two women discussed Charlie Kirk’s assassination, at which point this exchange occurred:

Miosga: Let’s also talk about what happened this week. In the US, ultra-right activist and Trump supporter Charlie Kirk was shot dead this week. Afterwards, your personal assistant posted a so-called meme, a photo with the caption. Let’s take a look …

Miosga: He then deleted this post, saying that right-wing extremists had put it in the wrong context. Did he tell you what the proper context was?

Reichinnek: On the very same day, there was another school massacre.1 And that was a very cynical way – but unfortunately also a very fitting way – to say, with this school massacre, you just move past it.

But I thought it was really good that you also described [Kirk] as ultra-right-wing, because others call him a “right-wing conservative” and that’s simply not true. He was a white supremacist, he was against the right to [sex/gender] self-determination. He said he would force his ten-year-old daughter to give birth were she to be raped. He is a racist.

So these statements he makes are really extreme. And I think you should never rejoice over anyone’s death. But you also don’t have to feel pity or respect for a person like this … Kirk, who was shot, said that some casualties are simply something we have to endure for the freedom to bear arms.

And [my aide] used this meme satirically, to point out that this focus [on political violence] is completely absent when it comes to other areas. For example, it was absent in the case of the murdered Democrats. … And I’m always very surprised that it is precisely this ultra-right-wing nationalist who is now being mourned so widely. I’m rather annoyed that the Junge Union [the youth wing of the CDU], for example, posted their condolences, when you consider what kind of person Kirk was. They didn’t do that for the murdered Democrats a while ago. So that’s also a question that needs to be asked.

Miosga: But he was murdered.

Reichinnek: Yes, by another Republican. And that’s problematic.

Miosga: And you’re surprised that people want to mourn someone who was murdered?

Reichinnek: I don’t know if this is the kind of person you would say was such a good person and just a right-wing conservative. No, he was very problematic. And as I said, you have to be aware of whom you’re platforming.

Reichinnek’s lies are partly of her own making, and partly elaborated from the media mythology that the German press have created around Kirk’s shooting. This mythology includes the dishonest speculation that Tyler Robinson, the shooter, had some connection to “far-right” groups and the American right-wing activist Nick Fuentes, “who has criticised Charlie Kirk in the past for his allegedly moderate stance.” In fact everything we know about the shooter, who was in a relationship with a trans woman, suggests he was a simply a leftist who despised Kirk’s politics. Various social media accounts connected to the transgender community appear to have had foreknowledge of Kirk’s assassination.

Neither Miosga nor Reichinnek have issued any clarifications or corrections, nor have they apologised.

I originally planned a much broader piece on the reaction to Kirk’s assassination, but the loathsome celebrations of social media activists are now well-trodden territory, so I have confined myself here only to the most mainstream, accepted, and establishment-friendly press personalities and media outlets in Germany.

We have before us here a systematic campaign, too coordinated and consistent to be an accident. The aim of this campaign is twofold. On the hand, our press hopes to portray Kirk as an unhinged and dangerous fascist, but to stop just short of blaming him for his own death – the sin for which MSNBC fired their “analyst” Matthew Dowd. On the other hand, they want to cast his assassination as very far from regrettable, while leaving any open celebration to the foul activist circles in their milieu.

Before 10 September, most Germans had never heard of Charlie Kirk, and so there was no reason for our press to denounce his politics and lie about him in this way. They could’ve reported this story much differently – perhaps as yet another crazy campus shooting in the gun-crazed United States (a favourite if tiresome trope of German media elites, however inapplicable in this case), or simply as the regrettable murder of a prominent American activist with connections to the MAGA movement.

Instead they have chosen the path of deceit and slander, because they are hysterical and desperate lunatics who have cultivated a political discourse that is so deranged as to be nearly beyond comprehension. If this were a German story about the murder of a prominent AfD activist, our journalists would report on it as sparingly as possible and condemn the AfD for playing the victim, while activists would stage a new round of demonstrations “against the right.” But this is an American story, and because the headlines from the United States have made Kirk’s assassination unavoidable, they have instead chosen this shameful path. They think they can get away with it, because German journalism is a highly insular and incestuous world, and language barriers ordinarily prevent lies of this nature from traveling very far beyond our own borders.

UPDATE: A twitter friend has just brought a further case to my notice, even more egregious than the others here. Today, the WDR political satirist Florian Schroeder had the following to say in his godforsaken podcast:

Some media outlets described Charlie Kirk as a conservative. Unfortunately, that’s pretty stupid. Many true conservatives still haven’t realised that they would be the first victims of extremists like Kirk. These world-weary conservatives come across as people who probably would’ve cried if Stauffenberg’s assassination plot had succeeded. Their argument is that the victim was someone who inspired young people; and besides, Kirk at least discussed things with his opponents, so he can’t have been a right-wing extremist. But that’s exactly why he is. Because extremists discuss things too. By pretending to talk to those they disagree with and spouting the same old tired arguments, they can then present themselves as champions of freedom of expression.

So, Kirk is Hitler, his assassin is a successful Claus von Stauffenberg, who has saved these tiresome “conservatives” from being Kirk’s “first victims.” All this nonsense just openly propagated by a German state media broadcasting operation.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 05:00

Russia's Space Chief Vows To Deliver Starlink Rival at 'Rapid Pace'

Monday saw a brief global outage of Elon Musk's satellite internet service Starlink impact tens of thousands of people, including Ukrainian military forces across the entire frontline. Despite such occasional hiccups Ukraine has long successfully relied on Starlink throughout the conflict, especially to run its fleet of attack drones.

Russia is working on its own domestic-made 'answer' to Ukraine's frontline Starlink advantage, at a moment it is seeking to modernize its space program. A Russian aerospace company, known as Bureau 1440, is currently developing a low Earth orbit satellite system for global broadband data delivery.

Source: Bureau 1440

"Several test vehicles in orbit have already been inspected and the production ones have been modified accordingly," Dmitry Bakanov, the newly appointed 39-year-old head of Roscosmos, has said in an interview. "We are also moving at a rapid pace in this direction."

Bakanov recently acknowledged in a state TV interview that the Russian space sector had fallen behind due to "inertia" and a lack of fresh talent, and now he's seeking to attract attract a younger generation of engineers and scientists to revitalize the space program.

The reality is that SpaceX has rapidly outpaced former Russian dominance in satellite and rocket technology, and Russian officials have at times openly admitted this.

Previously this summer, Bakanov previewed: "The first launch is scheduled for the end of this year," according to TASS, detailing that the mission would carry 16 satellites. "Just like how Starlink was deployed."

Bureau 1440 expects over 900 satellites to eventually be launched by 2035, including 250 satellites connecting commercial services sometime by 2027.

An idea for a Starlink competitor was first unveiled and pushed by President Putin in 2018, called Sfera, but that project had to be abandoned amid sanctions on Roscosmos.

Roscosmos chief Dmitry Bakanov said on Sept. 17 that Russia will soon launch “Rassvet,” a Starlink-like satellite internet network using Bureau 1440’s low-Earth orbit satellites. pic.twitter.com/Z2DWAnj5UL

— Polymarket Intel (@PolymarketIntel) September 17, 2025

One industry-related report has noted that "By the end of 2024, Roscosmos had carried out only 17 space launches – two fewer than in 2023 and four fewer than in 2022. For comparison, the US carried out 145 launches, and China – 68."

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 04:15

The Dangerous Myth Of Managing Earth's Climate

Authored by Kurt Cobb via Resource Insights,

A recent piece in New Scientist has reminded me that it is a myth that humans, if they are wise and clever enough, can learn to "manage" the biosphere.

The piece is about the unfortunate trade-off between pollution reduction and global warming. It has been known for some time that successful efforts to reduce air pollution have resulted in fewer particles in the atmosphere, particles that reflect sunlight back into space. This reduction has actually accelerated global warming even as it has improved air quality and reduced illness and death.

The warning in the New Scientist piece comes from imagining a scenario in which world governments somehow agree on global action to curb warming climate by "spraying reflective particles into the stratosphere that dim the sun. The strategy works: temperatures at ground level stabilise, and life goes on as normal despite escalating carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere."

But then in 2050:

[S]omething goes wrong. The spray guns break down, the money runs out, a pandemic hits or a global war disrupts operations. Whatever the case, the planet starts to heat up, fast, as years of pent-up emissions kick into effect. Ecosystems can’t cope, wildlife perishes en masse, societal chaos ensues.

The phenomenon is called "termination shock."

The piece explains that we've been experiencing something like a termination shock because efforts in the last two decades to reduce air pollution have been so successful.  The result has been temperature warming faster than anticipated, unexpected regional changes such as increases in tropical cyclones, and increased monsoons responsible for greater flooding.  One researcher said that effects of a termination shock caused by a sudden cessation of worldwide program that inserts large amounts of reflective particles in the atmosphere would be much worse than what we are seeing today.

Read the entire piece New Scientist for the complete list of horribles.

Having recently re-read James Lovelock's Gaia: A New Look at Life on Earth I was reminded of some key points he makes about attempts to manage the biosphere.

Before getting to those points, for those who are unfamiliar with Lovelock and his Gaia Theory, it goes something like this: The Earth can be seen as a single organism using its natural processes that involve both living and nonliving materials to maintain conditions favorable to life.  He calls this system Gaia after the Greek goddess of the Earth.

(I can recommend the book which is highly readable for the layperson.)

Lovelock's key points for my purposes here are that humans are a part of this Gaian system just like all other Earthly beings and that we have our role to play in keeping conditions favorable to life. The idea that humans could manage such a complex system is almost laughable to Lovelock who notes:

There can be no prescription, no set of values, for living within Gaia. For each of our different actions there are only consequences.

Earlier in the book Lovelock states:

Each time we significantly alter part of some natural process of regulation or introduce some new source of energy or information, we are increasing the probability that one of these changes will weaken the stability of the entire system, by cutting down the variety of response.

Two possible negative outcomes he mentions are runaway positive feedback and sustained oscillation.

• Runaway positive feedback could over time move Earth's climate permanently into one resembling that of Venus where surface temperatures can melt lead. 

• Sustained oscillation could cause the Earth to cycle quickly between an ice age climate and a tropical one.

Lovelock notes that modern peoples live mostly in cities and so focus on solving problems that arise between individual people and between people and the urban institutions they create, not the problems that arise between people and the natural world they inhabit.

This puts humans at an increasing disadvantage in attempting to determine how best to live within Gaia over the long term.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 03:30

Only Half Of Brits Think Monarchy Is Important

A survey that has been asking UK residents periodically if they think the country's monarchy is important or whether it should be abolished has reached a new low point in royal approval.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz shows in the chart below, the latest installment in 2024, only 51 percent of Brits said the monarchy was very or quite important, while 31 percent said it was not very or not at all important. Another 15 percent of Brits wanted to see the monarchy be abolished.

You will find more infographics at Statista

The perceived importance of the British monarchy reached low points before at just 59 percent finding it important in 2003 and just 55 percent saying the same in 2021. The biggest overall losses happened between the mid-1980s and the early 2000s, though, and coincided with the rise in popularity of Princess Diana, who divorced then-heir to the throne Charles in 1996 and died in a tragic car accident in 1997.

In 1984, 86 percent had still found the institution very or quite important.

The monarchy gained some popularity again in the 2010s, when younger royals like Prince William and Prince Harry stepped into the spotlight.

Approval also spiked in 2022 - the year of Queen Elizabeth's death - to 63 percent attesting importance. However, in 2023, a new low of 54 percent approval had already been reached. In 2024, both the number of people finding the monarchy important and those finding it unimportant set new records in disfavor of the British royals.

The number of abolishionists was highest in 2023 at 16 percent.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 02:45

"We'd Kick Russia's Ass": Trump's Special Envoy To Ukraine Says Moscow Is Losing The War, Would Collapse Without China

Via Remix News,

Assistant to U.S. President Donald Trump and Special Presidential Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg had a lot to say on Russia’s famed might and those recent drone incursions into NATO airspace. 

Claiming 19 incursions cannot be an accident, Trump’s envoy said Vladimir Putin “is acting purposefully, he’s sending a signal, and he wants to hear a response,” reports Ukrainska Pravda.

“Ukraine will not lose this war. Ukrainians have a moral superiority over Russia, that’s obvious,” Kellogg also noted, specifically praising Ukraine’s advanced drone production capabilities. 

As to Russia, he said during the interview at the YES Annual Meeting 2025, “They talk a big game,” adding that Putin often likes to tout that Russia is a nuclear power, but other Western powers have nuclear weapons too. 

On the topic of Russian superiority, “We’d kick their ass (…) They’re not as good as Putin says they are.” He also credits Ukraine with helping curb Moscow’s military might. 

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine also confirmed to U.S. President Trump that Russia is “not winning” the war, according to Kellog. 

“If he was winning, he’d be in Kyiv,” Kellog added, again giving credit to Ukraine for slashing Russia’s military power. 

Poting on X, Kellog said, “The vision of our country is to see a halt to the death and destruction and restore peace and stability in Europe. Promoting peace over endless wars and proxy conflicts abroad is a defining feature of the America First leadership of President Donald J. Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.”

Honored to speak at the Yalta European Security Conference this week in Kyiv alongside the European National Security Advisors to deliver an America First perspective on bringing this war to an end. The vision of our country is to see a halt to the death and destruction and… pic.twitter.com/GGEXxxmQrr

— Keith Kellogg (@generalkellogg) September 14, 2025

Kellogg also spoke about Russia’s total dependence on China. 

“Russia has now become China’s junior partner. At present, we can say that China has both an economic advantage over Russia and a military advantage, and even historically. I will say more – if China completely cut off its aid to Russia, – this war would end tomorrow,” Kellogg claims.

Urging more aggressive action, including further sanctions, against Putin, Trump’s envoy maintained that Russia does not have “the capacity that they had that they could march towards Berlin or anywhere else.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 02:00

Dueling Military Drills Might Become The New Normal In Central & Eastern Europe

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Last week’s unprecedented NATO downing of Russian drones over Poland, which this analysis here argues was due to jamming causing them to radically veer off course, drew wider attention to the dueling military drills in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE).

The day before the incident, RT informed their audience that Poland, Lithuania, and eight other NATO allies in Latvia were carrying out three separate drills timed to coincide with Russia and Belarus’ then-upcoming Zapad 2025 ones in that latter state.

To illustrate the mismatch between each side, Poland’s, Lithuania’s, and Latvia’s drills respectively involve 30,000, 17,000, and 12,000 for a little less than 60,000 total troops compared to Zapad 2025 only involving 13,000 troops from Russia and Belarus. Observers should also know that Belarus only has around 60,000 servicemen (48,000) and border guards (12,000) in total so these NATO drills on its western and northern borders comprise the same number of troops as its armed forces.

It's little wonder then that Russia earlier transferred tactical nukes to Belarus with the right to use them in self-defense and is planning to deploy hypersonic Oreshnik missiles there too for deterrence purposes. NATO as a whole and in particular its three aforesaid members who hosted the latest drills believe that Belarus is the “weak link” in Russia’s regional security matrix and thus think they can intimidate it via large-scale drills into “defecting” to the West after summer 2020’s attempted Color Revolution failed.

This plot won’t succeed due to Russia’s Article 5-like mutual security guarantees for Belarus, its abovementioned tactical nuke and Oreshnik deployments there, and President Alexander Lukashenko striking up a surprising friendship with Trump via his role in trying to facilitate a grand deal with Putin. Nevertheless, none of this means that NATO will abandon its intimidation campaign against Belarus, ergo the importance of regular joint Russian-Belarusian drills in order to visibly demonstrate deterrence.

These same drills are then deliberately misportrayed by the West as aggressively intentioned and consequently exploited as the pretext for staging their own much larger ones at the same time for faux deterrence purposes that thinly veil their aggressive motives against Belarus and Russia by extension. This dynamic isn’t new but has been dishonestly dramatized by the West since the start of the special operation for maximum domestic fearmongering purposes that advance the elite’s geopolitical agenda.

Given these stakes, it’s expected that they’ll maintain this dynamic even after the Ukrainian Conflict ends, which’ll keep NATO-Russian tensions high for the indefinite future. The Western elites might also have economic interests in doing so since this’ll serve as the impetus for accelerating construction of the “EU Defense Line” along NATO’s borders with Russia and Belarus. Knowing how corrupt the West is, it should be assumed that some officials have invested in companies involved in this megaproject.

The new normal of dueling military drills in CEE is therefore driven by the Western elite’s geopolitical interests in fearmongering about Russia and their economic ones in enriching themselves from this. Russia won’t unilaterally suspend these drills since doing so could further embolden Western warmongers and inadvertently prompt Belarus into panicking that it might soon be “sold out”. The ball is thus in NATO’s court whether or not to maintain this dynamic, but all indications suggest that it will.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 23:25