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NATO Countries Scare Their Populations On Christmas With Hyped 'Russian Nuclear Bombers' Flight

Zero Hedge -

NATO Countries Scare Their Populations On Christmas With Hyped 'Russian Nuclear Bombers' Flight

On Western Christmas, December 25, Russian nuclear-capable bombers conducted a "scheduled" flight over waters in the Arctic region, specifically in neutral waters of the Norwegian and Barents Seas. This prompted "fighter jets of foreign countries" to escort them and mirror them from afar, Russia's defense ministry has confirmed.

While the country origins of the Western aircraft which responded remain unclear, the Kremlin had notified NATO in advance of the somewhat routine flight path. The bodies of water in question lie north of Scandinavia and northwest of Russia, which is quite far from the UK, and yet British media did what they do best: exaggerate and hype Russian nuclear bombers being "sent" by Putin "to the UK"...and on Christmas!

And never mind the fact that for Russia and its Orthodox Church, it is not Christmas. Russian Orthodox Christmas falls on January 7, according the Julian calendar ecclesiastical dating system.

These bodies of water lie far away from Britain, and is a standard flight path for Russia's military. "At certain stages of the route, long-range bombers were escorted by fighter jets of foreign countries," the Russian defense ministry disclosed.

The ministry further said that such flights "regularly take place in many regions and are in accordance with international law."

Highlighting that these bombers were not at all 'sent' to the UK, one political commentator says as follows:

British media outlets like the Mirror and The Sun have reported that Russian nuclear-capable bombers flew a long-range patrol over the Norwegian Sea on Christmas Day Dec 25, 2025. Which was described as a deliberate act close to the notional "Santa Claus flight path". NATO warplanes were scrambled to monitor the aircraft.

This is how the media spinned it! When it was two Russian Tu-95MS long-range bombers known as "Bears" that conducted a scheduled routine, seven-hour flight over "neutral waters" in the Barents and Norwegian Seas. The media made it sound like they were threatening NATO. When NATO was informed by the Russians the path that was taken.

The distant, far northern body of water in question...

via World Atlas

Similar Russian bomber flights have recently occurred over the Sea of Japan, and in coordination with China's military in the East China Sea, and such flight paths have even lately traversed the Black Sea.

Given the Ukraine proxy war is about to reach its fourth year, we are indeed living in dangerous times, but the situation is not helped when European press endlessly fearmongers and exaggerates. Of course, this is stoked by defense officials in London and Brussels, who keep pushing for bigger defense budgets, and for taxpayers to keep on funding Ukraine. 

NATO apparently wanted young British boys and girls to know that its warplanes are keeping European skies safe from the 'Russian aggressor'... 

via US Air Force Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 13:50

Georgia Secretary Says 2020 Election Blunder 'Does Not Erase Votes'

Zero Hedge -

Georgia Secretary Says 2020 Election Blunder 'Does Not Erase Votes'

Authored by Kim Jarrett via The Center Square,

Five years after the 2020 election, challenges in Georgia continue despite multiple audits.

The latest questions surround the December meeting of the Georgia State Election Board. Nearly two weeks after the meeting, some continue to claim Fulton County was fraudulent because tabulation tapes were not signed that included 315,000 votes.

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger addressed the accusations in a social media post.

“Georgia has the most secure elections in the country and all voters were verified with photo ID and lawfully cast their ballots. A clerical error at the end of the day does not erase valid, legal votes,” Raffensperger said.

Other Republicans questioned Raffensperger.

Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who is running for governor, criticized his opponent, Raffensperger, in a post Monday.

“If only Georgia had an official responsible for preventing clerical errors that undermine election integrity. Is there anyone in Georgia who has that job, Brad?” Jones said

U.S. Rep. Mike Collins, who is running for Senate, said he was “tired of empty words from weak leaders” in a social media post from his campaign page.

“President Trump is owed a massive apology,” Collins said. “Turns out over 300,000 early votes in the 2020 election were illegally certified but still included in the final results.”

An election cannot be overturned based on a rule, Robert Sinners communications director for the Secretary of State’s Office, told The Center Square.

“The basis for these claims is that Fulton County admitted to sloppy election administration and not following a State Election Board rule,” Sinners said in an email. “There is no mechanism in law to overturn the election based on not following this rule – as it wasn’t even part of the election code – it was a procedural rule.”

New procedures were put in place to ensure the mistake doesn’t happen again, Ann Brumbaugh, an attorney for the Fulton County Board of Registrations and Elections, told the State Election Board.

Sinners acknowledged improvements were needed.

“Based on the reports from appointed monitors who were on site in Fulton County reviewing the conduct of the election – there was sloppiness that needed improvement, but outright fraud was not a concern,” Sinners said.

The 2020 election was recounted twice, and then, subject to a 100% hand count, according to Sinners.

“This is in addition to more audits that took place in localized jurisdictions. I would say the 2020 election was the most scrutinized in history – at least in this state,” Sinners said.

Trump had repeatedly said the election that put Joe Biden in the White House was stolen. This month, the Department of Justice sued Fulton County and the state of Georgia, alleging that they had failed to turn over data about the 2020 ballots. Those cases are still pending.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 13:25

Amid Nike's Worst Drawdown Since late 70s, UBS Flags Emerging Bullish Signals

Zero Hedge -

Amid Nike's Worst Drawdown Since late 70s, UBS Flags Emerging Bullish Signals

Nike was thrust into the news flow earlier this week after Apple CEO Tim Cook placed a buy order for 50,000 Class B shares at a weighted average price of $58.97. The stock has been locked in a four-year bear market, as recent earnings data point to softer demand in China and mixed channel trends in North America.

Looking past all the gloom, UBS analyst Jay Sole told clients Friday about UBS Evidence Lab's latest global sportswear survey, which points to "bullish" trends for Nike.

Sole said the survey suggests "the brand is improving y/y and remains strong," and that the turnaround could be just ahead. He has a "neutral" rating on the stock and believes the turnaround will take longer than the market expects. The survey results suggest Nike's plan to prioritize re-entering the wholesale channel under new CEO Elliott Hill.

For context, Evidence Lab is UBS's proprietary alternative data and analytics platform used by the bank's clients to supplement traditional financial analysis. The data include large-scale consumer surveys, web traffic, app usage, geolocation, transaction data, pricing scrapes, and sentiment signals, providing actionable insights into brand health, demand trends, market share shifts, and competitive positioning.

Here is Sole's complete insight into why "The Global Sportswear Survey Bullish for Nike"...

The survey makes us more constructive on NKE, but our rating is Neutral: UBS Evidence Lab's 11th global sportswear survey is bullish for Nike, in our view. The survey shows Nike's brand remains strong and is improving y/y. The survey increases our conviction Nike's brand strength provides the foundation upon which it can ultimately stage a comeback. We continue to believe Nike's business will improve. Our rating is Neutral because we think its turnaround will take longer than the market expects.

Survey results suggest 2 key elements of Nike's strategy are working: Since Elliott Hill became CEO, Nike has prioritized re-entering the wholesale channel. In this year's survey, a higher percentage of global consumers say Nike's products are easy to find in stores and online. This percentage dropped from 2019 through 2022, but has rebounded to a new peak this year. We believe this is attributable to Mr. Hill's channel strategy. Under Elliott Hill's leadership, Nike has also refocused on sports. Likely as a result, the percentage of consumers who say Nike is "good for doing sports" bounced back to its 2019 peak level (Fig. 29).

5 other survey insights showing Nike's brand strength and gains:

  1. Nike holds the highest Net Promoter Score (NPS) among all brands and its scores are rising. The surprising fact is not only does Nike have the highest NPS globally, but it also has the best score in each of the four geographies studied (US, UK, Germany, China: Figs. 30, 67, 106, 153, 180). Plus, Nike's NPS in each region are rising (Figs. 31, 68, 107, 144, 181).

  2. Nike retains strong brand attributes. Nike ranks as the #1 or #2 brand globally in the "high-quality products," "good for doing sports," "prestigious brand,' "innovative brand," and "fashionable or cool brand" categories as well as others (Figs. 18-28).

  3. Global purchase intentions are up y/y. Global consumers plan to buy more footwear as well as more apparel from Nike over the NTM (Figs. 14-15).

  4. Global consumers' impression of the Nike brand is improving. Plus, the rate of improvement relative to other brands' looks good (Figs. 35-36). Gains in the US are particularly notable, in our view (Fig. 72).

  5. Nike has the highest loyalty rate globally. Nike also has the highest conversion rate globally (Figs. 39-40).

Two modestly negative survey data points: The survey shows Nike has experienced slight erosion in global aided awareness within the 16-24 year-old age demographic (Fig. 10). This could be a consequence of Nike not being as "hot"of a brand over the last couple years as it was before that. Also, the Converse brand survey results are lackluster, in our view.

Valuation: Our $62 PT is based on 29x our $2.15 FY28 EPS estimate

For the full note, ZeroHedge Pro subs can view it here

Sole's view comes as the stock is locked in Nike's worst declines since the late 1970s.

At some point, Nike will figure out how to sell more Air Force 1s in China and, if management is smart enough, stop selling "woke" propaganda.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 13:00

Why Christmas Is The Most Stressful Week For The Diesel Market

Zero Hedge -

Why Christmas Is The Most Stressful Week For The Diesel Market

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

  • Holiday logistics lock in diesel demand regardless of price, draining already thin inventories.

  • Europe’s post-Russia diesel dependence makes year-end disruptions especially risky.

  • Christmas reveals structural fragility in distillate markets before crude prices reflect it.

Santa runs on diesel. Every year, the global holiday economy depends on a short, unforgiving surge in distillate consumption that powers trucks, ports, warehouses, refrigeration, and backup generation, all under winter operating conditions. That commercially driven holiday cheer strains logistics and exposes how thin the margin has become in some already-tight diesel markets, particularly in Europe. 

After crude, diesel is the most economically important fuel in the system, and Christmas is when that reality asserts itself. In the U.S., distillate demand typically rises into December not primarily because of heating, but because freight intensity peaks at the same time inventories are already being seasonally drawn. 

Recent weekly data show U.S. distillate supply running close to 4.0 million barrels per day, near the upper end of the post-pandemic range, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly petroleum status report. Commercial distillate stocks have hovered roughly in the 110- to 115-million-barrel range heading into late December, well below historical averages for early winter, based on EIA inventory data. That leaves little margin for error when logistics volumes increase in the final weeks of the year.

Europe’s position is even tighter. 

Since the loss of Russian diesel flows, the region has become structurally dependent on long-haul imports from the U.S. Gulf Coast, the Middle East, and India. Northwest European gasoil inventories have struggled to rebuild to comfortable levels, a pattern tracked by Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp inventory reporting, and December freight demand reliably erodes whatever buffer exists. 

On paper, supply appears to be enough, but in reality, the system is sensitive to disruption because replacement barrels travel farther, arrive later, and compete with the same shipping capacity needed to move goods.

Christmas matters because diesel demand during this period is not responding to price. Parcel delivery, food distribution, cold-chain logistics, and retail restocking all scale simultaneously. 

Unlike gasoline, where weak consumer sentiment can soften demand, diesel consumption in late December is tied to physical throughput. Packages still move even if margins are thin. Missed deliveries turn quickly into lost sales, spoiled inventory, contractual penalties, and reputational damage. The demand is locked in by calendar and contracts, not price.

That shows up in crack behavior. In a normal year, diesel cracks widen in the winter as logistics and heating demand overlap. 

In 2025, the signal has been much noisier. European diesel cracks softened in November amid mild weather and weak industrial activity, a trend flagged in ICE gasoil and ULSD crack spread tracking, yet physical premiums for prompt barrels have remained firm in several regional markets, according to European distillate market assessments. The divergence between paper cracks and physical pricing is exactly the kind of distortion Christmas amplifies, because immediate logistical needs trump macro drivers.

Refinery behavior also paints a similar picture. 

Every December, operators would love to have operational flexibility, but holiday logistics force high utilization rates, particularly at distillate-heavy configurations. U.S. Gulf Coast refiners have often run above 90% utilization through late Q4, based on EIA refinery utilization data, prioritizing diesel yields even as gasoline margins slump. That optimization reduces slack in the system. When something goes wrong, weather, equipment failure, or pipeline constraints, there is less room to adjust or draw on inventories.

Exports add even more risk. 

The U.S. has become Europe’s marginal diesel supplier, with distillate exports frequently running around 1.1 to 1.3 million barrels per day, according to EIA export flow data. Those barrels do not stop for Christmas. Any disruption along the export chain during this window, whether it’s fog in the Houston Ship Channel to Atlantic storms or congestion in Northwest European ports, happens when European buyers have the least flexibility and inventories are already drawn.

This is where “Santa runs on diesel” becomes very real. 

The holiday economy is leveraged to distillate reliability. Diesel is found in every step, from long-haul trucking, regional distribution, last-mile delivery, refrigeration, and backup power to port equipment and warehouse operations. It is the fuel that fails last and hurts fastest when it does.

There is also a transition blind spot that becomes exposed every December. Electrification has made progress in urban delivery and short-haul fleets, but peak holiday logistics still fall back on diesel. Cold weather degrades battery range, charging infrastructure becomes congested, and payload constraints matter when volumes surge, issues documented in the U.S. Department of Energy cold-weather EV performance analysis. Even fleets with electric trucks routinely supplement with diesel during the holiday peak. In practice, the system falls back on oil and gas precisely when it is under maximum stress.

From a market perspective, diesel often shows stress before crude does. Brent prices below $60 do not mean the energy system is well supplied. As the IEA’s December oil market report suggests, weak crude prices can sit alongside tight distillate markets, volatile physical premiums, and localized shortages. Christmas makes that disconnect harder to ignore by concentrating demand and removing flexibility from the system.

Thin liquidity makes it worse. Christmas week is notorious for reduced trading activity, even as physical markets are under maximum strain, a dynamic regularly noted in year-end oil market liquidity analysis. Stresses surface first in local premiums, freight rates, and delivery delays rather than in headline futures prices. That is why year-end disruptions often feel sudden: the warning signs are there, but they are outside the most visible benchmarks, so often go unnoticed.

Looking into the New Year, this probably matters more than it usually does. Thin distillate inventories, high export dependence, and limited spare refining capacity suggest diesel markets could remain fragile even if crude stays range-bound, consistent with EIA short-term energy outlook projections

While the holiday season doesn’t diesel's vulnerability, it does bring it into full view. Diesel is where we see the stress first. Christmas just narrows the margin a bit more. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 12:35

Poland Intercepts Russian Recon Plane Near Its Airspace On Christmas

Zero Hedge -

Poland Intercepts Russian Recon Plane Near Its Airspace On Christmas

Poland said it scrambled fighter jets on Thursday to intercept a Russian reconnaissance aircraft flying near its airspace over the Baltic Sea, and reported that dozens of objects crossed into the country from Belarus overnight, with some officials saying these are intentional provocations timed during a holiday period.

The Polish military said that jets intercepted, visually identified and escorted the Russian surveillance plane away from their area of responsibility while it was flying over international waters close to Poland's airspace.

Image: AFP

It said in reference to both the aircraft activity and large balloon incursions from Belarus, "the mass nature of the violation of Polish airspace, its occurrence during the special holiday season, the assessment of the Russian aircraft's activity in the ‌Baltic Sea, and the fact that similar incidents have recently occurred in Lithuania, may indicate that this was a provocation disguised as ​a smuggling operation."

NATO countries along the alliance's eastern flank remain on heightened alert after a series of provocative airspace incidents, including an episode in September when three Russian military aircraft entered Estonian airspace for over ten, shortly after more than 20 Russian drones crossed into Poland.

For another example, Lithuania has previously alleged that smuggler balloons originating from Belarus have repeatedly disrupted air traffic, at times forcing the closure of Vilnius airport.

Lithuanian officials claim that the balloons, which are used to transport cigarettes or other non-taxed contraband, amount to a form of "hybrid attack" by Belarus, a close ally and 'Union State' with Russia. However, the Lukashenko government has firmly denied any involvement.

The Polish military has said that as a result of the latest incidents, airspace over parts of the Podlaskie region in northeastern Poland, which borders Belarus, was temporarily closed to civilian flights as a security precaution.

These Eastern European and Baltic countries are trying to coordinate their responses and present a united NATO front. According to Fox, "Polish authorities said the response included support from NATO allies, with Spanish aircraft assisting in air policing and Dutch forces providing air defense systems support."

Some reports have tallied that Russian aircraft or drones have breached eastern European airspace well over a dozen times at this point, since the Ukraine war began.

NATO and the European Union have lately said they are working on plans for a 'drone wall' for collective defense along the eastern flank, with an eye on the 'Russian threat' facing European skies.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 12:10

Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Almost to Housing Bust High

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Almost to Housing Bust High

Excerpt:
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in November

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in November was 0.58%, up from 0.56% October. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.56% in November 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Fannie Freddie Serious Deliquency RateFannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in November was 0.58%, up from 0.54% in October. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.53% in November 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.
There is much more in the article.

Judge Blocks Trump Admin From Deporting 'Anti-Disinformation' Activist Under Visa Ban

Zero Hedge -

Judge Blocks Trump Admin From Deporting 'Anti-Disinformation' Activist Under Visa Ban

Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge granted a temporary injunction on Dec. 25 to block the Trump administration from detaining and deporting Imran Ahmed, an activist among those recently subjected to visa restrictions by the State Department for alleged censorship.

Ahmed, CEO of U.S.-based Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH), is a British citizen and a legal permanent resident of the United States.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the visa bans on Dec. 23 while condemning the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA), naming several former EU officials, as well as prominent activists who had a part in formulating the DSA.

The announcement followed the EU opening formal proceedings against X under the DSA, alleging “dissemination of illegal content.” U.S. officials decried the move as censorship.

Ahmed sued on Dec. 24 in a bid to stop deportation proceedings, naming Rubio, Attorney General Pam Bondi, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, acting Director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Todd Lyons, acting Field Office Director of the New York ICE office Judith Almodovar, and Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy Sarah Rogers in the complaint.

Rogers had accused Ahmed of collaborating “with the Biden Administration’s effort to weaponize the government against U.S. citizens” in a social media post on Dec. 23, writing that his organization published the “infamous ‘disinformation dozen’ report” that spurred a campaign to de-platform those questioning the safety of COVID-19 vaccines.

“Leaked documents from CCDH show the organization listed ‘kill Musk’s Twitter,’ and ’trigger EU and UK regulatory action' as priorities,” Rogers wrote.

“The organization supports the UK’s Online Safety Act and EU’s Digital Services Act to expand censorship in Europe and around the world.”

Ahmed argued in his complaint that the sanctions were political retaliation and violated the First Amendment.

“Immigration enforcement—here, immigration detention and threatened deportation—may not be used as a tool to punish noncitizen speakers who express views disfavored by the current administration,” the complaint said.

Mr. Ahmed’s effort to protect children from social media dangers and harmful hate speech does not present ’serious foreign policy consequences’—any more than do the actions of the United Kingdom and European Union legislators who voted to pass the laws that Secretary Rubio apparently does not like,” the plaintiff argued in a separate court filing.

Ahmed is also arguing a violation of his due process rights under the Fifth Amendment, a violation of immigration laws by tying his speech and views to a cause for deportation, and that the executive branch has exceeded its jurisdiction. The complaint reaffirmed CCDH’s support for the DSA.

U.S. District Judge Vernon Broderick has set a hearing in the case for Dec. 29.

“The Supreme Court and Congress have repeatedly made clear: the United States is under no obligation to allow foreign aliens to come to our country or reside here,” a State Department spokesperson said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 11:20

The $16 Billion Question Haunting Mark Zuckerberg

Zero Hedge -

The $16 Billion Question Haunting Mark Zuckerberg

A new study finds Facebook hosts the vast majority of social media scams, and critics argue it is because Meta prioritizes profit over protecting users, according to the New York Post.

Internal documents obtained by Reuters show Meta projected $16 billion — about 10% of revenue — from scam ads last year. Experts say the company only bans advertisers when its systems detect a 95% probability of fraud, while charging higher ad fees to suspicious buyers, a system critics describe as “pay to play.”

Former California prosecutor Erin West says the documents prove fraud is a “major moneymaker” for Meta. “To know that Facebook is aware of this and they tolerate it — and in fact, they even command additional fees from the worst offenders — is egregious… the practice itself is outrageous, jaw-dropping, unacceptable.”

Data from fraud-reporting firm SafelyHQ shows Facebook is cited in 85% of scam reports that identify a platform, with more than 50,000 verified complaints collected so far. CEO Patrick Quade says the problem is far larger: “For 50,000 people to find us and independently document their losses implies a victim count in the tens of millions… This isn’t ‘cherry-picking’ — it is the overflow of a systemic failure that Meta’s own documents confirm.”

One victim, Brian Kuhn, lost $70 buying records from a fake Facebook sale. “It felt a little creepy that they seemed to know my taste so well… I somehow blame myself equally, but that doesn’t excuse Facebook from allowing the thieves to prey on people.”

The Post writes that lawmakers Josh Hawley and Richard Blumenthal have demanded a federal investigation, writing: “Perversely, Meta reportedly charges higher rates for ads that it suspects might be fraudulent — in effect, imposing a scam tax…”

Meta spokesperson Andy Stone denies the claims, saying: “We aggressively fight fraud and scams… Scammers are persistent criminals…”

Yet internal Meta reports from 2025 found the company was involved in one-third of successful U.S. scams and that it was “easier to advertise scams on Meta platforms than Google.”

Another victim, Betty, who bought counterfeit cosmetics from a Facebook ad, described the platform’s targeting: “You like one thing or look at something or you make a comment about one thing and then these ads appear… Some are really good — they’re fake, but you really can’t tell at first.”

Quade warns that “the ‘fox’ isn’t even guarding the henhouse — it’s charging a toll for other foxes to walk right in… Meta’s system is algorithmically trapping regular citizens in e-commerce scams…”

Consumer Reports and policy experts argue Meta’s protection under Section 230 must be narrowed, especially for paid ads. As Quade concludes, “You can’t let the company profiting from the crime be the one in charge of stopping it.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 10:55

Bitcoin Market Fundamentals "Couldn't Be Better", Says Strategy CEO

Zero Hedge -

Bitcoin Market Fundamentals "Couldn't Be Better", Says Strategy CEO

Authored by Ciaran Lyons via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin’s market fundamentals have stayed strong in 2025, despite the asset’s price and sentiment declining toward the end of the year, says Strategy CEO Phong Le.

“The fundamentals of the market this year for Bitcoin couldn’t be better,” Le told the “Coin Stories” podcast on Tuesday, emphasizing that he doesn’t care too much about its short-term performance. 

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $125,100 on Oct. 5, but has since declined nearly 30%, trading at $87,687 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.

Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall market sentiment, has shown “Extreme Fear” since Dec. 12.

Le acknowledged that Bitcoin’s price “does what it does” and isn’t always easy to explain. 

“When you’re an investor, you think about the long term of the asset class,” he said. 

Bitcoiners should be “fairly methodical” about short-term price

Le stressed that short-term price action is often unpredictable and Bitcoiners should be “fairly methodical and mathematical about it.” 

“Which is why we focus on things like mNAV, why we built out the Bitcoin treasury and why we built out the US dollar treasury,” he said.

Strategy CEO Phong Le spoke to Natalie Brunell on the Coin Stories podcast. Source: Coin Stories

Alongside Bitcoin’s price decline, Strategy’s (MSTR) mNAV, the company’s market value compared to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, has fallen below 1, trading at 0.93, according to Saylor Tracker. The company holds 671,268 Bitcoin worth around $58.63 billion.

Looking at the long-term fundamentals, he pointed to the US government being “fully supportive of Bitcoin like it’s never been before.” 

TradFi is trying to “figure out” how to catch up

Le said that he and Strategy’s executive chairman, Michael Saylor, have been meeting with traditional banks across the US and UAE, where institutions are trying to figure out how to catch up.

“If you think about what’s happening with traditional powers of the world. The US government, the US banking system, they are all getting on board with Bitcoin,” Le said.

“That’s extremely bullish for this year and 2026,” Le added. While US President Trump signed the executive order officially establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and US Digital Asset Stockpile in March, a formalized strategic plan has not been confirmed yet. 

Some analysts had forecasted it coming to fruition this year.

Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, said in September that “there’s a strong chance the US government will announce this year that it has formed the strategic Bitcoin reserve.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 10:30

Joe Biden's Family Christmas Photo Is So Awkward And Wrong

Zero Hedge -

Joe Biden's Family Christmas Photo Is So Awkward And Wrong

Authored by Matt Margolis via PJMedia.com,

Yet another Biden family photo has become a punch line on social media, and trust me, this one is a doozy.

Biden shared the image around 9 p.m. on December 24, accompanied by a fairly boilerplate message: “Wishing you a peaceful and joyful Christmas Eve filled with love.

The strange part? You kinda had to play a game of Where's Waldo just to spot him.

Hunter Biden and his adult daughter, Maisy, grabbed the prime spots front and center in front of the Christmas tree, whereas Biden is shoved to the back, his face partially hidden behind his wife, Jill Biden. Seven family members made it into the shot, including Joe’s daughter and former showering partner, Ashley—I had to say it—and Hunter’s current wife, Melissa.

Now, one thing is clear from this photo: there was ample room for them to spread out. There was simply no reason for Biden to be pushed to the background. Frankly, it’s bizarre that the supposed patriarch of the family, and, you know, the former president-ish of the United States, ended up tucked in a corner like an afterthought, or like he was being deliberately hidden.

At least Hunter is fully clothed in this photo.

Social media users had a field day with the awkward composition.

This Christmas photo follows an unfortunate pattern of Biden appearing lost or hidden in group settings. Back in April 2022, Barack Obama visited the White House when Biden signed yet another Obamacare fix. After the signing, Biden found himself standing alone on stage, practically invisible as Democrats swarmed Obama as if he, not Biden, were the star of the event. Video showed Biden raising his hands in apparent frustration as the crowd ignored him completely.

Then came the April 2025 Easter family photo that sparked its own controversy. Biden appeared awkwardly positioned and formally dressed in a navy suit while everyone else wore casual clothing. His stiff pose and mismatched lighting prompted widespread speculation that he'd been photoshopped into the image.

Hunter was notably absent from that particular family portrait.

But, back to the Christmas photo.

As Andy Ngo noted, setting aside Biden’s status as the former sort-of president, putting the eldest member of the family in the back of a photo like this is quite disrespectful. I mean, this is the guy whose influence in Washington, D.C. helped enrich the Biden family for years. Put the guy in a chair and have everyone stand around him for crying out loud. That said, Biden has never seemed to command respect from people, whether it’s his own party or, now, apparently, his own family. It’s sad, really.

If this is how Joe Biden is treated for a photo meant to be posted on social media, how badly is he treated in private?

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 09:40

Peace Deal On Horizon? Trump & Zelensky To Meet Sunday

Zero Hedge -

Peace Deal On Horizon? Trump & Zelensky To Meet Sunday

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with US President Donald Trump on Sunday in Mar-a-Lago to talk peace with Russia, Zelensky's top officials have confirmed. Ukraine is touting that a deal is close - and yet outside observers might easily note that huge hurdles remain.

Zelensky also stated on Telegram that "Many things can be decided before the new year." And yet he is still rejecting Russia's main sticking point - the demand to control the entirety of the Donbas region under any final peace settlement. Moscow also wants international legal recognition (and so, from Washington) of the eastern territories as being part of the Russian Federation.

via Associated Press

Some level of progress must have been made in negotiations over the draft - at least from the US point of view - given that Trump said previously he would only meet Zelensky if he felt a deal was close.

Zelensky said Friday morning, "We are not losing a single day. We have agreed on a meeting at the highest level — with President Trump in the near future. A lot can be decided before the New Year."

At the same time, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia had received and reviewed information shared by Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev following his recent talks with the Witkoff-Kushner delegation in Miami. Crucially the latest talks included top negotiators from both Russia and Ukraine directly engaging

A senior US official characterized the talks involving envoys Rustem Umerov and Kirill Dmitriev as "positive and constructive."

"We've gone as far as possible with the Russians and the Ukrainians. We've made more progress in the last two weeks than the last year. We want to push the ball into the goal. We're heading in the right direction," the official was quoted in Axios as saying.

Another point of contention between Moscow and Kiev is expected to be the strong security guarantees for Ukraine backed by the West. Zelensky has been pushing that they are akin to NATO's Article 5 - but it's unlikely the Kremlin would go for anything approaching this language. 

Breakthrough on the territory issue? Not likely from Russia's point of view, given that what Zelensky is proposing still sounds like a temporary solution, and not the kind of full, legal, and permanent recognition the Kremlin seeks. Russia has emphasized many times it won't contemplate a merely temporary truce.

"The U.S. and Europe will provide Ukraine with security guarantees. If Russia invades Ukraine there will be a military response and sanctions will be reinstated," Zelensky told reporters earlier this week.

As for the still open question of territorial concessions, Zelensky has maintained that if land is given up, then this must be decided by the Ukrainian people in a popular referendum. But of course, the country still hasn't had a single parliamentary or presidential vote since the war began, so it's hard to see how such a referendum would actually happen anytime soon.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 09:15

S&P Futures Trade At Record High As Precious Metal Surge Accelerates

Zero Hedge -

S&P Futures Trade At Record High As Precious Metal Surge Accelerates

US equity futures are little changed in thin trading with most traders away from the screens, while the bulk of overnight actions was once again in gold and silver as precious metals soared to a new record high driven by feverish Chinese demand. As of 8:15am, S&P futures were flat after closing Wednesday's session at a new record high, while Nasdaq 100 futs were fractionally in the green. Asian markets were mostly higher while European bourses are closed. The dollar was unchanged as were treasuries, with the benchmark 10-year yield at 4.13%. There is no macro on today's calendar. 

In premarket trading, Mah 7 stocks were mixed (Nvidia +0.7%, Tesla +0.2%, Alphabet +0.1%, Apple little changed, Amazon -0.1%, Meta Platforms -0.1%, Microsoft -0.2%).

  • Miners including Coeur (CDE) and Freeport (FCX) are higher as gold, silver and platinum jumped to all-time highs and copper surged to a record in Shanghai and rallied in New York.
  • Biohaven (BHVN) drops 14% after a mid-stage study of the company’s experimental drug BHV-7000 for the treatment of major depressive disorder missed the primary endpoint.
  • Coupang (CPNG) gains 6.3% after Yonhap News reported the e-commerce company has identified the former employee who allegedly accessed personal data of 33 million customers; the company has retrieved all hard disk drives and devices that the ex-worker used.

As the Santa Rally accelerates, the MSCI All Country World Index gained 0.1%, rising for a seventh day, while a gauge of Asian stocks climbed 0.2%; Australia, Hong Kong and markets in Europe remain for holidays. Bloomberg’s index of the dollar held near the lowest since October. Treasuries were little changed, with the benchmark 10-year yield at 4.13%. 

Once again, the bulk of the overnight action was in gold and silver, which jumped as escalating geopolitical tensions and dollar weakness helped extend a historic rally for precious metals. Spot silver advanced for a fifth day, climbing as much as 5.2% to cross $75 an ounce for the first time. Gold, set for its best annual advance since 1979, rose as much as 1.2% to above $4,500 an ounce.

Copper surged to a record in Shanghai and rallied in New York, adding to substantial annual gains as investors bet on tighter global supplies in 2026, while also pricing in the impact of a weaker US dollar.

Meanwhile, the “Santa Claus Rally” which we said would be unleashed by Abu Dhabi's bailout of OpenAI's funding plans last week, is set to push stocks to fresh records even as exuberance over artificial intelligence and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path are being questioned. The rally is traditionally seen as taking place on the final five trading sessions of a year and the first two of the new one. Of course, the rally can well start early, and it did just that with the S&P 500 rising Wednesday for a fifth day in a shortened session ahead of the Christmas holiday. 

“As equity markets enter the fourth year of a bull market, our underlying market call remains constructive,” Scott Chronert, head of US equities strategy at Citigroup Inc., wrote in a note this week. “The current fundamental backdrop clearly has the opportunity for an ongoing AI-related tailwind to large-cap growth.”

After earlier concerns over high valuations for tech stocks amid the AI boom, traders are regaining confidence that companies will deliver solid earnings growth in 2026.

European bourses are  closed; Asian stocks extended gains for the week, helped by advances in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.5%, putting the gauge on track for its best week since late November. Samsung Electronics, TSMC and SK Hynix were among the biggest boosts to the index’s gain. Markets in Hong Kong, Australia and Indonesia remained closed for a holiday. Markets fell in Vietnam, Thailand and India.

Tech shares traded higher, amid a year-end rally in US peers, with Samsung Electronics rising to an all-time high. Japanese stocks rose as tech shares and exporters bolstered the indexes, while buying in dividend names also lifted shares. Mainland China shares rose, with gains in stocks related to solar, precious metals, lithium batteries and new energy vehicles boosting the gauge.

“China equity markets enter 2026 with the wind at their back, and new momentum from advanced manufacturing and tech self-sufficiency drivers,” according to a note by UBS CIO. “With domestic investors on board and global investors adjusting their stance, we see more upside ahead, even if occasional volatility and geopolitical squalls lie on the horizon.”

“There were AI-related concerns earlier this month, but those seem to have been digested by the market,” said Tetsuo Seshimo, a portfolio manager at Saison Asset Management in Tokyo.

In FX, the yen weakened 0.4% to about 156.44 to the dollar after a report showed Tokyo’s inflation cooled more than expected as pressures from food and energy prices faded. That triggered weakness in the currency on bets the Bank of Japan may push back the timing of its next rate hike. Meanwhile, China set the yuan’s daily reference rate at a level that was below market estimates by a record margin, in the latest sign of policymakers’ intention to slow the currency’s appreciation.

The move came after the offshore yuan advanced past the psychological level of 7 per dollar on Thursday for the first time since September 2024. The PBOC has steered the yuan toward a path of appreciation to appease Beijing’s trading partners, but has sought to maintain a gradual pace of gains to avoid a surge of hot-money inflows.

In commodities, oil headed for the biggest weekly gain since October, as traders tracked a partial US blockade of crude shipments from Venezuela and a military strike by Washington against a terrorist group in Nigeria.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 08:53

Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

Excerpt:
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in this newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).

I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2025.

8) Residential Investment: How much will Residential investment (RI) change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

Case-Shiller House Prices IndicesFirst a graph of RI as a percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) through Q3 2025:

We don't have the data yet for Q4 2025 yet, but RI as a percent of GDP will likely be down year-over-year.

China Sanctions 20 US Defense Firms, Issues 'Red Line' Warning Over Record Taiwan Arms Deal

Zero Hedge -

China Sanctions 20 US Defense Firms, Issues 'Red Line' Warning Over Record Taiwan Arms Deal

After sounding the constant warning that Washington is "playing with fire" in continually arming and supporting self-ruled Taiwan, China's foreign ministry announced Friday new sanctions on ten individuals and 20 American defense companies, mostly notably among them Boeing, specifically in response to American arms sales to Taiwan.

The ministry described that the sanctions freeze any assets that the listed people and firms hold in China and prohibit Chinese organizations and citizens from conducting business with them, and singled out Boeing's St. Louis-based defense branch, Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation and L3Harris Maritime Services - among others.

Also on the list is Palmer Luckey, the founder of defense firm Anduril Industries. The sanctioned executives are barred from traveling to mainland China, as well as Hong Kong and Macau.

Anduril Industries

"In response to the latest US announcement of large-scale arms sales to China’s Taiwan region, China has decided to take countermeasures in accordance with the anti-foreign sanctions law against 20 US defense-related companies and 10 senior executives who have engaged in arming Taiwan in recent years," stated the Chinese foreign ministry.

"Anyone who attempts to cross the line and make provocations on the Taiwan question will be met with China’s firm response… No country or force shall ever underestimate the resolve, will, and ability of the Chinese government and people to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity," it added.

The ministry described that "movable and immovable properties, and other kinds of assets" of these American firms and individuals within China "shall be frozen."

The punitive measure follows the Trump administration's provocative announcement last week of an $11.1 billion arms package for Taiwan, which is record-setting, confirmed as the largest such US sale to the island to date.

Beijing has said "The Taiwan issue lies at the heart of China’s core interests and represents the first red line in China-U.S. relations that must not be crossed," according to a foreign ministry spokesperson.

The Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency said the major arms sales are intended to support Taipei's efforts to "modernize its armed forces and to maintain a credible defensive capability."

The biggest chunks of the package include some $4 billion of Himars truck-based missile launchers, enough for 82 of the advanced systems.

The Himars have enough range to be able to reach targets on China's east coast, which introduces a new level of 'deterrence' from Taipei's and Washington's perspectives.

Last week, soon on the heels of this, Beijing issued a blistering statement saying, "The 'Taiwan independence' forces on the island seek independence through force and resist reunification through force, squandering the hard-earned money of the people to purchase weapons at the cost of turning Taiwan into a powder keg."

That prior statement had added, "This cannot save the doomed fate of 'Taiwan independence' but will only accelerate the push of the Taiwan Strait toward a dangerous situation of military confrontation and war. The U.S. support for 'Taiwan Independence' through arms will only end up backfiring. Using Taiwan to contain China will not succeed."

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 08:25

Gold Surges As Central Banks Brace For Global Debt Storm

Zero Hedge -

Gold Surges As Central Banks Brace For Global Debt Storm

Submitted By Thomas Kolbe

The gold price is racing from one all-time high to the next. That’s good news for friends of the precious metal and bad news for anyone still hoping for a stabilization of global debt dynamics. 

Assuming the markets close out the year without major volatility, gold holders can look forward to an approximate 70 percent increase in value within a single year. This is remarkable—not least because 2024 already ended with a 26 percent gain for the otherwise conservative asset class of precious metals. That amounts to a doubling of value in just two years—a surge usually seen in the tech sector rather than gold.

A Store of Value in Turbulent Times 

For the most stable money humanity has ever known, which has served as a store of value in crises for millennia, this is no ordinary development. Quite the opposite. Among those who follow geopolitical developments and financial markets closely, such a compressed upward movement is an unmistakable signal: Danger is imminent. 

Whether it’s military conflicts—like the Ukraine crisis, which still carries dangerous escalation potential—or the global debt dynamics now affecting nearly every region, capital is visibly fleeing to the safe haven of gold. Gold has a key advantage over other assets: there is no counterparty risk. Physical ownership—not as an ETF held at a bank—represents a tangible value that, aside from the annual 1.6 percent mining increase, neither inflates nor can be arbitrarily frozen.

By comparison, the M2 money supply—which includes cash, deposits, short-term term deposits such as money market funds, and savings accounts—is expected to grow by seven to nine percent globally this year. Gold is becoming scarcer relative to circulating fiat money—a compelling argument, particularly in central bank circles. Banks are well aware that their interest rate policies, coupled with ongoing debt monetization, lead to planned currency devaluation. Hence, the precise move into gold—central bankers are essentially trying to secure themselves.

The size of the global gold stock is limited and fairly precisely measurable. Worldwide, there are 216,000 tons of gold, equating to a volume of 11,200 m³—forming a cube with a side length of 22.3 meters. 

Central Banks Scent Their Own Crisis 

Globally, it was again the central banks pushing gold prices higher this year. The Polish, Chinese, and Turkish central banks stand out. Combined, central banks are expected to add roughly 1,000 tons of gold to their vaults this year—a figure well above the long-term average of 400–500 tons. As mentioned: danger is imminent.

This massive buying suggests that central bankers know full well we are facing a global debt problem—or may already be in the eye of the storm. Interest rates are rising in almost every economy, prompting investors to demand higher risk premiums on sovereign bonds from highly indebted states. The U.S., with over 120 percent debt, joins France (~117 percent) and Italy (~136 percent). Even Germany, currently an exception at 65 percent debt, plans a significant buildup in the coming years. Overstretched welfare states and additional burdens from migration-related crises push public budgets further into deficit, only offset by continuously growing bond volumes.

When central banks step in and take on large parts of this new debt, the credit money supply grows alongside the actual credit process, driving inflation in both goods and asset prices. 

Subordinating monetary policy to fiscal mandates has created a powerful political unit. Debt policy becomes the norm, and the natural causality between deficit, higher taxes, and inflation is systematically stretched out over time. Who today links rising food prices or the precious metal boom to the Federal Reserve or the ECB?

Private investors feel the pressure, too: German households, for instance, bought about 9,000 tons of gold this year in the form of jewelry, goods, and coins.

Trust Crisis in the Global Financial System 

Growing private and institutional demand for safe assets, which shows no sign of abating and is expected to continue into 2026, points to a severe trust crisis. Rising sovereign bond yields—especially in Japan, with debt around 230 percent—have reached alarming levels, scaring investors and exposing the depth of the trust crisis. A storm is brewing—and Japan may well be where it begins. 

For years, Japan served as a carry trade hub: borrowing cheaply in yen and investing elsewhere for higher returns with limited currency risk. Rising rates there could abruptly make these long-standing financing models unprofitable.

The foundation of the international financial market, largely built on U.S. Treasuries, risks destabilization. Options to hedge against the monetary excess—central banks taking on massive state debts—are limited. 

Gold remains one of the safest havens. For those preferring more volatility, Bitcoin is digital gold: serving the same purpose, independent of state creditworthiness, and operating as a self-contained economic ecosystem. 

Italy and the Final Alarm Signal 

As if one more proof were needed that a storm might hit capital markets, Italy—one of the Eurozone’s three pillars—has gone on the offensive. The country is working to legally transfer gold stored at the Italian central bank to state ownership. 

Does Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni foresee that in a Euro crisis, the ECB might tap national gold reserves to stabilize the common currency?

How far has the trust crisis in capital markets already advanced? The new year may soon give us a clearer answer to this pressing question. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 08:00

Escobar: Europe's Elites Pay For The Privilege Of Losing Conflict

Zero Hedge -

Escobar: Europe's Elites Pay For The Privilege Of Losing Conflict

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

When in doubt, Europeans should always re-read Tacitus. As a true Roman, he considered that sacrifice was only worthy if conducted at the service of the motherland. In his time, the Roman Empire. In our time, that would be civilization-state Italy.

Tacitus was a keen student of Resistance – reflecting on the worthiness of the heroic deaths of those condemned to suicide by Nero and Domitian. He followed all the legal battles, the condemnation of lay martyrs such as Seneca. He talks about them with veneration; but branded their sacrifice as sterile.

Tacitus refused the temptation of heroism – and asked himself if between the ardor of disdain and vile obsequiousness a path could be found exempt from vaingloriousness.

He certainly didn’t see this path in the future of Rome. He experienced life under absolute power – today that would be under the yoke of the European Union (EU) and European Commission (EC) – and noted that to exercise it or be submitted by it was equally degrading.

The questions he could not answer are eternal. Whether a people protagonist of History and enjoying domination is able to be worthy of it; whether it’s possible for those who govern to remain wise; and for those who are subjects, what to do to not humiliate themselves.

To History and politics, Tacitus posed only moral questions. For him, the only possible salvation will come via moral healing.

He quoted some verses of brilliant poet Lucan, who was also a victim of Nero – who wrote that considering “the most serious calamities” one “had proof that not towards our security are the gods solicitous, but of our punishment”.

All these questions apply now to Europeans being subjugated by appallingly mediocre warmongering elites – who are only speeding up a negative vortex way more serious than the decadence of Rome. While “the Gods” are Olympically oblivious of the punishment inflicted on mere – taxpaying – mortals.

Throwing Money Into a Black Void

Enter the latest European elite scam: the decision to hand over to the “criminal organization” in Kiev – President Putin’s terminology – a cool 90 billion euros joint loan for 2026-2027, at 0% interest rate. Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic officially refused to be part of the scam.

This joint EU borrowing – funds that they don’t have in the first place – automatically turns into EU debt. The onus will be on EU-wide taxpayers. Not only they will be stripped of 90 billion euros of their hard earned income coupled with high taxes; they will pay European banks for the “privilege”. Everyone in the corridors of the EC in Brussels knows that only in interest, EU member-states will have to pay over 3 billion euros a year.

The imperative corollary: funds for health services, education and social rights will go even more down the drain than at present.

It’s key to be reminded that this sweet loan will only cover two years to keep the Kiev gang on life support. Afterwards, it will be yet another scam. And even the sweet loan won’t be enough for 2026-2027 – covering only two-thirds of the black hole in Kiev.

The conditions for the loan are mind-boggling. Kiev will repay it if – and the operative word is an impossible “if” – receives “full reparations” from Russia. The EC in Brussels has stipulated the total amount at over half a trillion euros.

It gets even juicier. Before the loan, the EC had previously declared Ukraine insolvent; and announced that it could not provide loans to Kiev. Still, they forced themselves to come up with this latest sweet loan: direct financing, a de facto grant.

According to Ukraine’s lead negotiator Rustem Umerov:

there are two scenarios: 1 – if the conflict ends, the funds will go toward rebuilding the country; 2 – if aggression continues, Ukraine expects €40–45 billion annually for defense and security.”

Both scenarios are absurd. First: Moscow – as the victor in the conflict – will never agree to finance the rebuilding of Ukraine via its own sovereing wealth fund stolen by Europeans. Second: the Kiev gang is already positioning itself to be showered with more free money, as in “if aggression continues…”

This whole circus is in progress because the EU failed to steal the Russian sovereign wealth funds for good – no matter the tsunami of spin speculating on who finally “betrayed” who (arguably France’s Le Petit Roi dumped the German BlackRock chancellor at the final stage of the negotiations).

What matters in the end is that a few economists with an IQ above a Brussels room temperature warned their “leaders” that if the “robbery” (Putin’s terminology) of Russia would go on, nations holding sovereign wealth funds – from Asia to the Persian Gulf – would always regard them not as savings but as high risk investments, with catastrophic consequences.

There are no illusions in Moscow. Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitri Medvedev noted that “Brussels thieves” have not ditched their plans. Additionally, the toxic Medusa in charge of the EC had already stated that Russian assets can be unblocked only by a qualified majority vote – as in, for instance, two-thirds or three-quarters of the total number of member-state voters.

Tacitus would have approved Putin’s lapidary evaluation of the EU: “They [the previous US administration] believed Russia could be easily broken up and dismantled. European ‘swine underlings’ immediately joined the efforts of that previous American administration, hoping to profit from our country’s collapse: to reclaim what had been lost in earlier historical periods and to exact a form of revenge. As has now become evident to all, every one of those attempts, every destructive design against Russia, has ended in complete and total failure”.

Watch Those European Bonds

The 90 billion euro sweet loan is just the top of a deep, deep iceberg. Add to it the – still non-existent – funds to keep weaponizing Kiev as well as buying gas, fuel and electric energy, as Ukraine is totally dependent on the EU. In parallel, the EU lost the Russian market: in 2021, before the start of the SMO, the EU was exporting 90 billion euros a year to Russia.

The burning question of how much will it take to rebuild Ukraine has now reached forest fire territory. A 2024 World Bank study placed it at 600 bilion euros – to be paid in full by an EU locked in a Forever War mindset.

Considering how Russia is now on a roll bombing key Ukrainian military infrastructure, the final cost of the European adventure – after Napoleon and Hitler, now it’s the EU/NATO Coalition of Hell’s turn – may easily reach and surpass 1 trillion euros, complete with European-wide de-industrialization; loss of global competitivity; loss of the Russian market; an array of US tariffs; and total vassalization imposed by the Empire of Chaos.

As if all this concentric black void was not enough, German finance experts warn that the yield on European bonds is rising fast. After all, no one in his right mind will lend money to these Forever Wars “elites” at a low interest rate.

So the name of the game now is high risk – at the systemic level. This includes: governments refinancing debt at higher rates; corporations refinancing on even worse terms; banks tightening lending standards.

In a nutshell: Capital is flowing out of weak balance sheets. And bonds always move first, because they assess cash flows, not European warmongering narratives.

Every serious crisis starts with rising interest rates. 0% for Ukraine does not even qualify as a fairy tale. What matters, for starters, is what bank sharks will charge on that sweet 90 billion grant.

Don’t count on an European axis of sanity suddenly stepping up to save the former apex of civilization. That may take generations. Meanwhile, Tacitus applies. The Gods seem to be totally relishing the punishment inflicted on mere – taxpaying – mortals.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 07:00

10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My Boxing Day morning reads:

Playing Santa Does Strange Things to a Man. What It Did to Bob Rutan Was Even Stranger. Bob Rutan is legendary among the tight-knit fraternity of Macy’s Santa Clauses. Like many of these men, playing Santa changed Bob. Profoundly. His story is one of struggle and failure, heartbreak and grace and—yes—the magic of Christmas. (Esquire)

Can Netflix Help Save the American Mall? The entertainment company’s new “Netflix House” experience is bringing the brand’s shows into former department stores. Will streaming TV fans follow? (CityLab)

King of Cannibal Island: The tulip bubble​ is the most famous financial bubble in history, but as historical examples go it is also, in one crucial respect, misleading. That’s because anyone can see the flagrant irrationality which was at work. At peak tulip madness in 1637, rare bulbs were so expensive that a single one was worth as much as a fancy canalside house in Amsterdam. You don’t have to be Warren Buffett to see that the disconnect between price and value was based on delusional thinking. (London Review of Books)

No one knows anything. Let’s ask them about that: It’s never obvious what to do with thematic surveys. Is it positive or negative that 0 per cent of investors expect a new pandemic in the next 12 months? Should we assume their guess is probably right and buy airline stocks, or should we assume the consensus has underpriced the possibility and sell airline stocks? (FT Alphaville)

•  The Untold Story of Charlie Munger’s Final Years: The Berkshire vice chair was making gutsy investments, forging unlikely friendships and facing new challenges to the end. (Wall Street Journal)

It turns out that CBS forgot to cancel the broadcast of the piece in the Canadian market…  Here’s the 60 Minutes Segment Trump and CBS News Executives Don’t Want You to See Hours before it was set to air last night, CBS News executives pulled the segment, but Canada’s Global TV app received it prior to broadcast. (The Reset)

The Most Important Thing We Learned From Susie Wiles: Ever since the publication last week of a two-part article in Vanity Fair in which Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, said all of that and more, political observers have been asking: Why did she do it? Why discard her usual discretion and speak so frankly, on the record, about her cracked compatriots in the Trump administration? (New York Times) see also 5 turning points that explain MAGA’s civil war. Today, the movement’s most consequential fights are unfolding beyond the control of its term-limited president — empowering rival factions to shape MAGA in their own image. MAGA entered the year with a sheen of invincibility, riding the high of Trump’s victory and united in his promise of a new “Golden Age.” It’s ending 2025 locked in an existential war over the future of conservatism. (Axios)

How Willie Nelson Sees America: On the road with the musician, his band, and his family. (New Yorker)

James Webb Space Telescope confirms 1st ‘runaway’ supermassive black hole rocketing through home galaxy at 2.2 million mph: ‘It boggles the mind!’ News By Robert Lea published December 17, 2025 “The forces that are needed to dislodge such a massive black hole from its home are enormous.” (Space.com)

How How the Grinch Stole Christmas: Behind the scenes of the lavish, painful, wigged-out movie that should have won Jim Carrey an Oscar. (Vulture)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with comedian Jay Leno, former Tonight Show host, and creator of Jay Leno’s Garage.

High market concentration isn’t a sell signal

Source: TKer

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The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

World War And The Plan To Control Or Kill Young Western Men

Zero Hedge -

World War And The Plan To Control Or Kill Young Western Men

Written by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

When I think of the recent assassination of Charlie Kirk I see the event as symbolic of the death of civil discourse in the west. The timeline split at that moment leaving two distinct groups: The conservatives and centrists who cling to the fantasy that progress through traditional politics is still possible, and the patriots who now realize that a peaceful resolution is unattainable.

I also see it as symbolic of a deeper element of the culture war – Specifically, the war on young white western men. Kirk was 31 at the time of his death. Not “young”, but almost 15 years younger than I am, and it has left me thinking about the future for the next generation of western males at a time when the system is obviously hellbent on destroying them.

They have been the subject of economic warfare through DEI: Corporations and colleges give first shot to any identity group other than white males regardless of merit.

They have been targeted by social warfare: Demonized as irredeemable monsters by woke cancel culture and labeled the cause of all the world’s ills.  Their ancestors built a civilization of unprecedented prosperity and so much material bounty even the poorest people are fat.  They created the middle class, a concept which had never existed before in history.  In 1890 the average global life expectancy was 42 years; by 1990 the average life expectancy was 73 years, all because of western civilization and the technology it created.  And now, white guys are being punished for it.

They have been selected for extermination: They’re the key demographic that leftist governments want to use as cannon fodder for a mindless geopolitical mess in Ukraine.

Charlie Kirk’s biggest mistake was believing that the system could be defeated through peaceful discourse. He was wrong. It’s not just the insanity of the political left that makes peace and reason impossible, there’s also the machinations of globalist controlled governments working tirelessly to conjure a perpetual meat grinder through domestic and foreign conflicts.

One indicator of a coming purge is the open call for young men (specifically conservative men) to accept the idea of future conscription. Multiple EU member states have threatened to institute a military draft if volunteer numbers do not dramatically increase (so much for “democracy”). The purpose of the draft? To construct an EU army large enough to go toe-to-toe with Russia.

As I predicted in my article “World War III Is Now Inevitable – Here’s Why It Can’t Be Avoided”, published in April of 2024, the globalists in Europe are doing everything in their power to stop a peace plan from moving forward in Ukraine. They have been actively sabotaging the Trump Administration’s efforts for a summit which actually includes Russia instead of cutting them out of the process.

At the same time that a greater war is being fomented, there has been a relentless gnawing crusade to demoralize young white men. One could rightly say that this campaign also affects some minority men in places like the US, but let’s not play games – The primary target is without a doubt white western males.

Why? It’s hard to say for certain, but when patriots are called to action it’s usually white conservative men that answer. Minorities (third world migrants in particular) are far more inclined to lean into socialism and view western civilization as a structure to be torn down rather than protected.

This attitude is changing in some areas of South America, for example, but the fact remains that if you visit a developing nation, chances are high that free markets and individual liberty are not common societal values. It’s not racial profiling, it’s simply statistical fact.

In Europe, the current goal of the establishment is to crush the spirits of western men while protecting migrants as a precious commodity. In the UK, the narrative is focused like a laser on white conservative males as public enemy #1, while simultaneously demanding that these same men “prove their patriotism” by fighting for the elites against Russia.

I was watching a news broadcast from the BBC a few months ago in which a male journalist of military age tried to argue rational points on why men in Britain are reticent to go to war for the existing government. He noted that they do not believe that the leftist politicians in power represent them anymore and they feel they are being rapidly replaced by third worlders with hostile ideologies. Why would they fight for such a government?

A black female journalist involved in the discussion sneered at the man’s argument, then grinned as she asserted that nothing he says matters because he could be drafted whether he likes it or not. It was the evil grin of a communist – She knows she’s part of the protected class. She knows that he can be sent to die no matter how logical and reasonable his position,  Meanwhile, she risks nothing in her support of continued war.

She was reveling in the idea of white conservative men being expendable. It’s the leftist dream, is it not? To turn their political opponents into beasts of burden and fuel for the fire of their Utopian fantasy. They don’t care about being correct, or moral; they just want to crush the life out of people who disagree with them.

Progressives in Europe have taken to social media asserting that conservative men should BE SENT FIRST to war; because they are better mentally suited to combat (because conservatives are violent monsters, remember?). They are also easy to sacrifice in the name of the grand progressive experiment. There is, of course, no talk of sending the millions of military age migrant men in Europe to the front lines in Ukraine.

Again, I predicted this exact scenario in my article “Europe Goes Full Totalitarian And Puts The Entire Western World At Risk”, published in March. I stated:

I would go even further and say that in the event of war with Russia native born citizens will be rounded up for conscription while most migrants are left behind to run the streets of London, Paris and Berlin. I believe the migrants are enforcers to keep any potentially defiant Europeans in line. Many empires and monarchs throughout history have used foreign mercenaries as muscle to prevent local rebellion. The politicians in the EU and UK are following a similar strategy…”

I’ve identified at least three separate propaganda narratives and political agendas that are working in tandem as a weapon against western men.  These mechanisms are highly coordinated across social media, with mainstream news platforms, politicians and influencers repeating the same talking points as if they all received the same script.

Lazy, Apathetic, Angry And Dangerous To Society

Social media is rife with this disinformation claim – Often perpetuated by female influencers, they assert that young men are no longer engaging with modern women and he liberal order because they are “porn addicted”, lack motivation and have no direction. They say that young males have abandoned society and that this makes them volatile and prone to unpredictable violence.

Nothing could be further from the truth. Young men are simply building their own separate society which preserves western values and protects their heritage from the ravages of deconstructionists. Feminists and establishment shills are worried about men walking away because then they can’t exploit those men for their labor and resources anymore. By extension, when men separate from the liberal herd, they have greater independence and a greater potential to rebel.

I would argue that the “incel” narrative widely promoted in the past decade by the political left has nothing to do with sincere concerns about the mental health of young men. Rather, it’s all about controlling those men before they go rogue against the establishment.

Using Economic Hardship And War To Weed Out The Strong

In George Orwell’s novel “Animal Farm”, the communist Pigs seek to dominate the other animals by keeping them busy with arduous (but empty) acts of labor. They use this aimless labor to break the backs of the strongest animals on the farm. The horse named “Boxer” is a true believer in the common good of the collective, but the Pigs see his strength as a potential threat to their long term rule.

They exploit Boxer’s patriotism and ultimately work him to death. They then sell his body to a slaughterhouse despite his faithful service to the farm.

If you are a young man and a patriot in the west and primarily in Europe, YOU are Boxer the horse. They will send you off to slaughter in the name of the collective because you represent potential opposition. They will use economic decline as a means to pressure you into conformity, or leave you no other option but to join the military. They will then celebrate your death, because they nullified your strength without ever having to fight you directly.

Young Men, The Warrior Class And The Weak Elites

Another story I’m often reminded of when contemplating the plight of young men is “The 47 Ronin”. The basic theme is one of justice vs. law and government corruption. When the benevolent lord of a samurai fiefdom is assassinated by another lord, his soldiers call for justice. However, the government intervenes and disrupts any investigation into the murder.

They know the opposing lord is a criminal, but he is also an elite valuable to the power structure. He is one of them, and to punish their own is to bring the entire feudal system into question in the eyes of the nation. They allow him to escape consequences for the sake of the “greater good.”

The samurai, though, do not share in this “enlightened” vision of gray morality. They see everything as black and white; honorable and dishonorable. They make a plan to kill the enemy lord who murdered their master.

I find this story to be the most profound when it comes to explaining the way in which men are treated by modern liberal society, specifically white men in the west. At the end of The 47 Ronin, the samurai succeed in killing the corrupt lord, but they are then required to commit mass suicide or face dishonorable execution as criminals.

They are warriors that have gone rogue; they have exited the societal reservation. They have become the most dangerous thing in existence: Honest men willing to act outside the law.  And so, they must die for the sake of the status quo.

What I see going on today is a perverse agenda to control western men and keep them subservient. The agenda stifles the next generation, through nihilist propaganda, through the apathy of the political circus, and by conditioning those men to see themselves as a dispensable utility. If the system can’t control these men, it will try to kill them by creating a war big enough to thin their ranks by attrition.

The elites view the warrior class as the ultimate danger, and young western men represent the best chance of a renewed warrior class. If these men ever realize their true power, the weakling elites would be wiped off the face of the Earth within moments. I hear the argument often that this kind of rebellion is meaningless without a detailed plan to rebuild.  This is another means of control – Demand a perfect solution before action is ever taken so that nothing ever gets done.

Warriors understand that reformation only comes from the will to take action; the will to create momentum. They understand that civil discourse has its place, but if all it does is maintain the status quo then it must be abandoned. Warriors understand that the worst thing one can do is debate the obvious while the world burns.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 22:30

Number Of Centenarians Skyrockets In The US

Zero Hedge -

Number Of Centenarians Skyrockets In The US

Between the 2010 and the 2020 Census, the number of centenarians in the United States grew by 50 percent to more than 80,000 as the realities of aging populations are catching up to a country that had previously outdone its peer when it came to fertility and demographic development.

As Statista's Katharins Buchholz reportsthe recently published Census Bureau report on centenarians shows that while they remain a very small part of the U.S. population at only two out of every 10,000 Americans, they are nevertheless emblematic of global changes that see increased life expectancy meet lower fertility rates.

 Number Of Centenarians Skyrockets In The U.S. | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

The country with the world’s most centenarians – Japan – has more than twice as many and has been plagued by the realities of demographic change for years.

In 2020, more than 60 percent of U.S. centenarians were aged 100 or 101, while only 10 percent were aged 105 or above.

Women, who have higher life expectancies, were hugely overrepresented among the group, with 79 percent of U.S. centenarians being female.

White Americans are also overrepresented in centenarian populations.

Black and Asian Americans made up somewhat smaller shares of them than their overall population shares would suggest.

Meanwhile Latinos were hugely underrepresented among centenarians, with only around 9 percent of those reaching the age of 100 currently part of the group despite 18.7 percent in the country now identifying as Hispanic. This could be due to the fact that Latino populations are among the fastest growing in the U.S. and therefor have many younger members. Puerto Rico was the place with the second-most centenarians in the country, only surpassed by Hawaii.

The changing realities of aging and fertility have caused demographic change to accelerate recently in the United States. Between the 2010 and the 2020 Census, the number of Americans aged 65 and over rose by 4 percentage points to 16.8% as Baby Boomers entered retirement. Between 1990 and 2000 as well as between 2000 and 2010, this number had held more or less steady.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 21:45

Is A Paleoconservative 'New America First' Committee The Answer?

Zero Hedge -

Is A Paleoconservative 'New America First' Committee The Answer?

Authored by J.D. Hester via AntiWar.com

With paleoconservatism currently ascendant in the United States, the slogan "America First" has risen to prominence in public discourse. However, this is not the first time that the phrase has been commonplace in American politics. While America First is currently associated with the right, the bipartisan America First Committee (AFC) united anti-war activists across the political spectrum around keeping the US out of the Second World War. With the Russo-Ukraine War raging on and the Israel lobby pushing for more US involvement in the Middle East, it is once again time for a big-tent alliance to oppose war and put America first.

"History is written by the victors" is a popular adage to describe the phenomenon in which the victorious side of a conflict mythologizes their exploits. Anti-war activists, especially for generally popular wars like WWII, are often vilified as bigots or sympathizers of foreign nations. In the modern era, opponents of U.S. support for Israel are often vilified as "Jihadists," "third-worldists," or "Islamists." Likewise, those skeptical of U.S. support for Ukraine are regularly smeared as Putin apologists. Similar slanderous claims have been made about the AFC, despite the principled motives of the vast majority of its members.

Chicago Herald-American

While some members of the America First Committee, like the famous aviator Charles Lindbergh, made antisemitic statements, the organization itself fought antisemitism in its ranks. Nevertheless, historical revisionists have often fixated on the small minority of genuine antisemites. As one historian put it: "Thousands of sincere Americans of varied background and from both political parties joined and contributed to [the America First Committee]. It also attracted support from a number of fringe hate organizations, from anti-Semites, and from Nazi sympathizers. This minority support tarnished its reputation."

The efforts of critics to smear the organization have mostly concealed its successes. However, some prominent individuals have praised the organization for what it was able to accomplish in the short time it existed (about 15 months). Paleoconservative commentator Patrick Buchanan wrote,

"The achievements of [the America First Committee] are monumental. By keeping America out of World War II until Hitler attacked Stalin in June of 1941, Soviet Russia, not America, bore the brunt of the fighting, bleeding and dying to defeat Nazi Germany. Thanks to America First, no nation suffered less in the world’s worst war."

By resisting the efforts of war hawks to preemptively enter World War II, the AFC likely prevented the deaths of thousands of young American men and demonstrated the power of anti-war advocacy.

Now, the time is ripe for another coalition of anti-war activists from across the political spectrum to oppose the possibility of U.S. military entanglement in Venezuela, Ukraine, or the Middle East. Indeed, a new AFC might be closer than expected. In a previous article, I outlined how Tucker Carlson, a paleoconservative, has found common ground with progressives like Cenk Uygur and Ana Kasparian on opposing U.S. support for Israel.

While a new antiwar coalition would certainly look different than the original AFC, the modern geopolitics are radically different from the 1930s. The United States is now a nuclear-armed superpower capable of waging war anywhere on the globe. Additionally, the Israel lobby exerts a strong influence over numerous American politicians. A new antiwar coalition will have different goals and employ different strategies. Nevertheless, its core mission––putting America first by resisting unjust wars – would remain the same.

In the end, a new America First Committee might be even more necessary than it was in 1941. With the advent of nuclear weapons, military conflict is an existential threat to our world. In fact, the doomsday clock states that the world is a mere 89 seconds to midnight. Americans across the political spectrum are waking up to this reality. Opposing war is not a matter of ideology; it is a matter of survival. The simple idea that the American government should put the interests of the people it represents first is so obvious, yet often absent in practice.

A modern AFC could pressure the government to act according to the will of the people and prove that dissent is patriotic. The America First Committee offers a historical blueprint, but it is up to us to build the momentum and movement necessary to truly change U.S. foreign policy.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 21:00

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