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EU Weighs Deploying Training Sites In Ukraine As Kremlin Warns: 'Legitimate Targets'

Zero Hedge -

EU Weighs Deploying Training Sites In Ukraine As Kremlin Warns: 'Legitimate Targets'

The European Union is weighing plans to set up two military bases inside Ukraine to train fresh troops - a move Moscow has already warned could make them targets of military strikes.

"We have been discussing the training of the Ukrainian soldiers, also on the soil of Ukraine," EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Wednesday. "We have identified two training centers that could be used for that purpose."

The Kremlin made clear just a month ago: "The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs warns that the deployment of military units, military facilities, warehouses, and other infrastructure of Western countries on Ukrainian territory will be classified as foreign intervention, posing a direct threat to the security of not only Russia but also other European countries," according to the warning of spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.

Western governments have already trained tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops over the course of the four-year grinding war with Russia - but this has been concentrated in countries like Britain, Denmark, and Poland.

The Western training of Ukraine forces was happening long before the current war: Below is a Spanish military instructor (right) training a group of Ukrainian soldiers at the army base of Toledo, on December 2, 2022 - according to El Pais...

AFP/Elpais

On Thursday, Colonel General Andrey Serdyukov accused Europe of accelerating preparations for direct confrontation. "The militarization of Europe is continuing at an accelerated pace, openly aimed at preparing for a military confrontation with Russia," he said.

He added that "The territories are being rapidly fortified, and the relevant infrastructure is being improved."

The alleged 'NATOization' of Ukraine was a prime reason Moscow listed for going to war in the first place. Since Putin's 'special military operation' next door, the opposite trend has happened: NATO is firmly ensconced in Kiev, in terms of the billions in weapons, equipment, and funds already poured in.

Meanwhile, the EU has just this week approved a fresh $100 billion loan package for Ukraine.

As for proposed 'EU bases' - it's hard to see this as in reality less than a full NATO established outpost in Ukraine. Russian leadership will see it as a recipe from taking the proxy war toward a full blown conflict directly with NATO.

The minute an 'EU base' comes under Russian aerial attack, the gloves would  be off, and NATO would likely seize the opportunity to enter the conflict directly against a nuclear-armed superpower.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 12:40

Watch: Sen. Johnson Unloads On MN AG Ellison Over Anti-ICE Agitator Deaths

Zero Hedge -

Watch: Sen. Johnson Unloads On MN AG Ellison Over Anti-ICE Agitator Deaths

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Viral footage from a Senate hearing captures Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson tearing into Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison for allegedly exploiting and encouraging anti-ICE agitators whose actions led to deadly clashes with federal agents.

This raw exchange highlights the escalating tensions over leftist obstruction of Trump’s deportation efforts, putting law enforcement in the crosshairs while shielding criminal illegal aliens.

The clips stem from a Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing, focused on oversight of immigration enforcement amid recent fatal incidents in Minneapolis.

In one segment, Johnson accuses Ellison of fueling the chaos that resulted in the deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti.

“A tragedy was going to happen and YOU ENCOURAGED IT! You ought to feel DAMN GUILTY about it!” Johnson shouts.

He continues: “two people are DEAD because you encouraged them to put themselves in harm’s way. And now you EXPLOIT those 2 people. It never should’ve happened!”

Johnson paints a vivid picture of the dangers faced by ICE agents: “I can’t imagine being a law enforcement official where I know my colleagues have been shot at, their vehicles rammed, that there are trained activists deployed.”

“And by the way, we know at least one of those activists had a semi-automatic pistol with extra clips!” Johnson adds.

“So now you’re an ICE officer. You’re doing enforcement action. You’ve got a team behind you trying to protect you,” he continues, urging “You’ve got all these trained activists behind you. Is it any wonder they’re at hair-trigger alert? A tragedy was going to happen and you encouraged it!”

In another clip from the same hearing, Johnson presses Ellison on his awareness of organized Signal chats and trainings used by agitators to interfere with ICE operations.

“I’d think as chief law enforcement officer you’d be CONCERNED about it! Were you not concerned people who support you put themselves into harm’s way!” Johnson demands.

Ellison responds: “Sir, that never happened! We said protest peacefully and safely!”

Johnson retorts: “You were seeing the scuffles. Minneapolis police couldn’t even protect ICE agents!”

This hearing comes amid broader congressional scrutiny over ICE tactics following the shootings of U.S. citizens during enforcement actions.

The accusations against Ellison tie into a pattern of Democrat-led resistance to federal immigration laws, endangering agents and communities alike.

As we covered recently, AOC announced training to teach agitators how to block ICE agents and doxx feds.

 

The New York Democrat is pushing “teach-ins” with Hands Off NYC to legally observe, film, and note ICE activities, praising rapid responses that halt deportations amid surging threats to agents.

Investigative journalist Michael Shellenberger has warned that the left is getting people killed at this point, citing delusions like disbelief in real bullets and radicalization that leads protesters, including those with children, into dangerous clashes.

Scott Jennings destroyed Democrats for refusing to condemn a DA’s vow to ‘hunt down Nazi’ ICE agents, labeling it outrageous rhetoric that divides against officers enforcing federal law, including promises of “reign of terror” against ICE workers.

Meanwhile, leftist foundations and foreign donors are bankrolling anti-ICE sabotage networks. Leaked Signal chats revealed donor ties to Soros, Ford, and MacArthur, supporting harassment zones and patrols to thwart federal raids.

Minnesota Dems were caught facilitating paid insurrection networks to sabotage ICE, with encrypted groups tied to Gov. Tim Walz’s administration dividing cities for agent tracking and using state resources for 24/7 disruptions.

A CCP-linked billionaire is also suspected to have funded anti-ICE riots as Minnesota saboteurs scatter.

Americans overwhelmingly demand deporting illegals and full cooperation with ICE, with 73% viewing illegal entry as law-breaking, and 67% calling for local-federal collaboration against criminal aliens.

As congressional probes intensify, these hearings demand accountability from Democrats whose rhetoric and networks fuel violence against those securing America’s borders.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 11:00

Alibaba Stock Nosedives, Then Rebounds, After Pentagon Designates Company As "Military Linked", Before Inexplicably Deleting

Zero Hedge -

Alibaba Stock Nosedives, Then Rebounds, After Pentagon Designates Company As "Military Linked", Before Inexplicably Deleting

The Trump administration on Friday added some of China's biggest companies, including Alibaba and Baidu, ‌to a list of firms allegedly aiding China's military - however, strangely the listing was pulled within mere minutes with no explanation initially issued. A Bloomberg newswire Friday morning indicated:

US PULLS DOCUMENT THAT LISTED FIRMS LINKED TO CHINA MILITARY

This was quickly followed by a correction: US removes document that listed firms linked to China's military and then the clarification that US Agency requested withdrawal of document, per the Federal Register. All of this was enough to cause Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) stock to fall 5% and Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) to drop 2% Friday immediately on the reports, followed by a swift rebound on word of the sudden delisting.

The initial, and now withdrawn listing comes amid allegations from US officials that Alibaba is Chinese military-linked company, part of the Trump strategy of ratcheting up pressure ‌on Beijing ahead of an expected meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The much anticipated summit is currently set for the first week of April, ahead of which Washington has taken a series of measures, seen as typical Washington leverage-building with Beijing. But as Reuters has observed, the White House seems to be treading very carefully, not wanting to go too far in provoking the ire of Beijing, which could derail the key visit before it even kicks off:

The Trump administration has shelved a number of key tech security measures aimed at Beijing ahead of an April meeting between the two countries' presidents. The measures include a ban on China Telecom's U.S. operations and restrictions on sales of Chinese equipment for U.S. data centers, sources said.

The U.S. has also put on hold proposed bans on domestic sales of routers made by TP-Link and the U.S. internet business of China Unicom and China Mobile along with another measure that would bar sales of Chinese electric trucks and buses in the U.S., four people said, declining to be named.

Did some mid-level Pentagon officer not get the memo?

Perhaps the 'mistake' was realized post-haste in view of the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit, and that Alibaba 'military-linked' sanctions would only poison the water. Or... a risky Trump 'tactic' in the lead-in to April?

No immediately clarifying information on just what is going on has been forthcoming. 

This of course isn't the first time the Pentagon has played its hand regarding its well-known view of Alibaba's alleged Chinese PLA ties, but this brief Friday morning episode certainly escalates things from Beijing's point of view, even if it was quickly 'taken back'. But the proverbial cat is out of the bag.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 10:40

US Core CPI Tumbles To Slowest In 4 Years; Real Wage Growth Surges

Zero Hedge -

US Core CPI Tumbles To Slowest In 4 Years; Real Wage Growth Surges

Rate-cut expectations have surged (dovishly) higher this week (along with tumbling Treasury yields) amid a mixed macro picture (Labor market 'good', Retail sales bad, Housing ugly).

Today could change all that as CPI for January prints with risk skewed to the upside. January brings annual resets and they tend to surprise on the high side.

Despite the 'hot' whisper numbers (and 4 previous Januarys in a row of upside surprises), headline consumer price inflation came in cooler than expected in January (+0.2% MoM vs +0.3% expected). That pulled the headline CPI down dramatically from +2.7% to +2.4% - near the lowest in 4 years...

Source: Bloomberg

Food cost inflation is slowing, Energy is deflating...

Core CPI printed +0.3% MoM (in line with expectations), lowering the YoY change in core prices to +2.5% - the lowest since March 2021...

Source: Bloomberg

Goods inflation is clearly lacking (despite UMich respondents being sure we'd by hyperinflating by now)...

The much-watched SuperCore CPI (Services Ex-Shelter) rose notably (+0.6% MoM) but the YoY figure remains at its lowest since Sept 2021...

Driven by a big jump in Transportation and Education costs...

CPI Highlights:

  • The Shelter index rose 0.2% in January and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.2% over the month as did the food at home index, while the food away from home index rose 0.1 percent. These increases were partially offset by the index for energy, which fell 1.5% in January.

  • The core CPI index rose 0.3% in January. Indexes that increased over the month include airline fares, personal care, recreation, medical care, and communication. The indexes for used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, and motor vehicle insurance were among the major indexes that decreased in January

On a YoY basis, the all items index rose 2.4% for the 12 months ending January, after rising 2.7% for the 12 months ending December. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.5% over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 0.1% for the 12 months ending January. The food index increased 2.9% over the last year.

  • The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.5 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter index increased 3.0 percent over the last year. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include medical care (+3.2 percent), household furnishings and operations (+3.9 percent), recreation (+2.5 percent), and personal care (+5.4 percent).

CPI Details:

  • The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in January.

    • The shelter index increased 0.2 percent over the month.

    • The index for owners’ equivalent rent also rose 0.2 percent in January as did the index for rent.

    • The lodging away from home index fell 0.1 percent over the month.

  • The index for airline fares increased 6.5 percent over the month.

  • The personal care index rose 1.2 percent in January and the recreation index rose 0.5 percent.

  • The index for communication rose 0.5 percent over the month and the index for apparel increased 0.3 percent.

  • The new vehicles index rose 0.1 percent in January. The medical care index increased 0.3 percent in January.

    • The used cars and trucks index declined 1.8 percent in January

  • The index for hospital services increased 0.9 percent over the month and the index for physicians’ services rose 0.3 percent.

  • The prescription drugs index was unchanged in January

  • The household furnishings and operations index decreased 0.1 percent over the month.

  • The index for motor vehicle insurance decreased 0.4 in January.

Electricity costs have never been higher...

Digging deeper into the CPI report, motor fuel was the single biggest change in what negatively influenced the headline number.

As Bloomberg's Simon White shows in the chart above, motor fuel contributed +0.03% points to December’s year-on-year CPI, but negative 0.21% points in January, for a change in contribution of negative 0.24% points, notably larger than any other component. Gas prices bottomed in mid-January and are up almost 5% since then.

On a shorter-term basis, inflation is slowing - plain and simple...

For now, we seem to be avoiding a 1970s redux in Fed policy error helping to re-ignite an inflationary rebound...

Source: Bloomberg

...but time will tell ('run it hot').

On the other side of the ledger, January saw real average weekly earnings rise 1.9% YoY - its highest since March 2021...

Finally, according to JPM's CPI market reaction matrix (based on what the core CPI MoM prints), we should expect a solid up day for stocks:

  • Core MoM prints above 0.45%. SPX loses 1.25% - 2.5%: odds 5.0%

  • Core MoM prints between 0.40% - 0.45%. SPX gains 0.25% to loses 75bps; odds 25.0%

  • Core MoM prints between 0.35% - 0.40%. SPX gains 0.25% to 0.75%; odds 42.5%

  • Core MoM prints between 0.30% - 0.35%. SPX gains 1% - 1.5%; odds 22.5%

  • Core MoM prints below 0.30%. SPX gains 1.25% - 1.75%; odds 5.0%

 

For now, what we do know is that the mnainstream media's constant fearmongering over Trump Tariff-flation was yet another canard crushing the PhDs' credibility even further.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 10:38

NATO Allies Pledge More Than A Billion To Supply Ukraine With US-Made Weapons

Zero Hedge -

NATO Allies Pledge More Than A Billion To Supply Ukraine With US-Made Weapons

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

NATO member nations on Feb. 12 announced new financial support to purchase U.S. military hardware for Ukraine, reaffirming their commitment to ending the war this year.

“We want to make 2026 the year this war ends—the year we secure peace,” UK Secretary of Defense John Healey said after a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels.

This month marks four years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when Russian forces launched an assault in the early morning hours of Feb. 24, 2022.

The UK approved $680 million in an emergency allocation for new air defense missiles and systems, Healey announced.

“We all welcome progress made by the U.S. to broker peace. For now, the war continues,” he said.

At the meeting, Norway, the Netherlands, and Germany announced they would fund a new $500 million package to purchase air defense equipment, ammunition, and other items from the United States.

Johann Wadephul, Germany’s foreign minister, said the country would also contribute to Ukraine’s anti-drone dome project designed to counter Russia’s drone swarms.

The homegrown dome system, formed by former businessman and television producer Pavlo Yelizarov, is designed to protect critical infrastructure and cities by destroying Russia’s incoming Iranian-designed suicide attack drones, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced in January.

The dome is made up of small, mobile teams using cheap 3D-printed interceptor drones that scramble to destroy the incoming attacks. Deployment of the dome is scheduled for later this year.

Germany also plans to deliver five interceptor missiles if other supporting countries donate 30, Wadephul added. The country has also given five of its 12 Patriot interceptor missile surface-to-air systems.

“We all know it’s about saving lives,” Wadephul said. “It’s a matter of days, not months.”

On Feb. 3, Sweden and Denmark also approved aid to bolster Ukrainian air defenses with Swedish-made Tridon Mk2 systems, which are highly mobile and designed to counter drones and cruise missiles.

A firefighter douses a building hit by a Russian drone in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Jan. 12, 2026. Thomas Peter/Reuters

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte thanked the allied nations for continuing to contribute to Ukraine’s defenses while a peace deal is negotiated.

“Ukraine needs our support now more than ever,” Rutte said. “I’m urging all nations to step up their support and to share that burden. There are also many hard at work to ensure that the bloodshed stops and there is a lasting end to this war. We are committed to keeping this support as strong as possible now and into the future.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 10:20

DP World Boss Resigns As "Epstein Disruption" Spreads Across Corporate World

Zero Hedge -

DP World Boss Resigns As "Epstein Disruption" Spreads Across Corporate World

The "Epstein Disruption" continued to rock corporate America and the world overnight.

First, Kathryn Ruemmler, Goldman Sachs' chief legal officer and general counsel, announced her resignation Thursday night amid scrutiny over ties to Jeffrey Epstein.

Ruemmler told the Financial Times that she will exit Goldman on June 30, and said, "I made the determination that the media attention on me, relating to my prior work as a defense attorney, was becoming a distraction.

Ruemmler previously served as the White House Counsel during the Obama administration. She told Axios that it was her "responsibility…to put Goldman Sachs' interests first"...

Following Ruemmler's decision to resign, the next corporate fallout tied to the trove of Epstein documents released by the U.S. Department of Justice hit DP World, where the head of the Dubai-based logistics group stepped down.

DP World announced earlier that its CEO, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, will step down, following renewed scrutiny of his relationship with Epstein this week.

FT reports that the Dubai government announced that Essa Kazim will be named chair of its board and Yuvraj Narayan will be named CEO of DP World.

Revelations about Sulayem's relationship with Epstein in the latest tranche of DoJ files prompted two government-linked investment funds, La Caisse and British International Investment, some of DP World's top partners, to warn they would pause future deals unless "required actions" were taken.

By the end of the week, Sulayem stepped down.

Sulayem and Epstein cooking together... 

BII said that it would "not be making any new investments with DP World until the required actions have been taken by the company".

FT noted that "people close to the company said losing business partners from one of their flagship state-backed international ventures had probably forced the ruling family to act."

Sulayem played a pivotal role in building DP World into a global operator spanning 83 countries, operating the Middle East's largest port at Jebel Ali, the London Gateway in the United Kingdom, logistics sites across the U.S., and facilities throughout Africa.

Which corporate executive is next? Better yet, which government official?

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 10:00

Watch: Unhinged Woman Tries To Burn Down Rumored ICE Building

Zero Hedge -

Watch: Unhinged Woman Tries To Burn Down Rumored ICE Building

The dramatic rise in left-wing chaos has been remarkable over the past year.

From radical left militant groups firebombing Tesla showrooms, to the protest-industrial complex funded by activist nonprofits unleashing chaos on city streets, to the rise of militant transtifa - even the deep-state publication The Atlantic had to acknowledge the "rise of left-wing terrorism."

This week, a video showing what appears to be an unhinged white liberal attempting to burn what she believed was an ICE warehouse went viral on X on Thursday.

"A woman tried to set a fire at a South Kansas City warehouse that had been rumored to be a possible ICE detention center. Earlier today, the company that owns the property confirmed it is no longer moving forward with a sale to the U.S. government," Kansas City KMBC News wrote on X late Thursday.

KMBC provided further details on the Kansas City warehouse, reporting that the property's owner, Platform Ventures, announced it will not move forward with the sale to the U.S. government.

In recent weeks, there have been reports that ICE is buying warehouses nationwide to boost deportation operations for criminal illegal aliens.

Related:

Returning to the individual who tried to burn down a building: we suspect the corporate media would describe the incident as a "mostly peaceful protest."

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 09:25

2nd US Aircraft Carrier Rerouted From Caribbean To Mideast As Iran In Crosshairs

Zero Hedge -

2nd US Aircraft Carrier Rerouted From Caribbean To Mideast As Iran In Crosshairs

Soon on the heels of Netanyahu's meeting with President Trump at the White House this week, the US has quietly ordered its USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, to depart the Caribbean Sea and head to the Middle East, at a moment the White House is weighing possible military action against Iran, NY Times and others are reporting.

The redeployment will give Washington two carrier strike groups in the region, stacking additional warships alongside the already-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln as Trump turns up the pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program as well as ballistic missile arsenal. It's expected to take at least two weeks or more for the Ford to reach its destination off Iran.

USS Gerald R. Ford, via US Navy

Trump had openly discussed the idea of sending a second carrier strike group to the region earlier this week, a clear escalation as indirect US-Iran talks in Oman sputter with no breakthrough, but he's all the while expressed hope that he wouldn't have to use them.

"The ship’s crew was informed of the decision on Thursday, according to four U.S. officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the decision," NY Times reports.

Previously, the Ford had been operating in the Caribbean after its abrupt redeployment from the Mediterranean, as part of the earlier show of force tied to Venezuelan operations - making its rapid retasking toward Iran a stark reversal of routine scheduling for one of America's 11 total carriers available globally.

On this, the NY Time details: 

The Ford’s warplanes participated in the Jan. 3 attack on Caracas that captured President Nicolás Maduro. The strike group’s current deployment has already been extended once, and its sailors were expecting to come home in early March.

The new delay will further jeopardize the Ford’s scheduled dry dock period in Virginia, where major upgrades and repairs have been planned.

Trump has warned Tehran that failure to cut a deal would be "very traumatic" even as US diplomacy clings to the possibility of a quick agreement.

Trump took the opportunity to repeat a US ultimatum to Tehran early this week: "Either we will make a deal or we will have to do something very tough like last time," he told Axios to kick off the week. The Iranians will no doubt have this ringing in their ears headed into a planned second round of talks next week.

The USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group currently there, just south of Iran, involves dozens of fighter jets, Tomahawk missiles, along with several support warships. 

Trump has still claimed that Iran "wants to make a deal very badly" and is engaging much more seriously than in the past. There are signs that this is accurate, given the latest offer to dilute its enriched uranium in exchange for the lifting of all sanctions.

The US president days ago articulated his view that the June war taught the Iranians a huge lesson: "Last time they didn't believe I would do it," Trump said. "They overplayed their hand."

Meanwhile, two observations from The Economist's Gregg Carlstrom:

1) The lesson from last summer's failed effort at diplomacy is to watch what Trump does, not what he says; his vaguely optimistic statements about negotiations do not reflect reality (and that goes double for Witkoff's).

2) No matter how much Trump beefs up the American military presence in the Middle East, he still lacks the sort of military option he prefers (a quick, decisive "win").

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 08:55

Futures Fall On Friday The 13th As CPI Looms

Zero Hedge -

Futures Fall On Friday The 13th As CPI Looms

US equity futures are lower in a scary start this Friday the 13th, having given up modest overnight gains, as Investors - already on high alert for any further signs of the "AI scare trade" - braced for Friday’s inflation reading and any clues it holds on what happens next for interest rates.  As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down by 0.2%, having flipped between gains and losses after a three-day S&P 500 losing streak and especially Thursday's brutal 1.6% cash-market slump, which DB's Jim Reid described as "Friday 13th coming a day early for risk assets yesterday." In pre-market trading, Mag-7 all names are weaker ahead of the long weekend, but there are some bright spots within Energy / Mats / Fins but, so far, pre-mkt trading does not point to another significant de-risking. Bond yields climb 1-2bps across the curve with the belly underperforming and USD rallying. Commodities are retracing some of yesterday’s losses led by precious metals. Crude oil futures fell on a report that some OPEC+ nations see scope for output hikes. Today’s macro focus is on CPI and if any new AI "Obsolescence" trades emerge. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower (Alphabet -0.7%, Amazon -1.0%, Apple -0.4%, Nvidia -0.3%, Meta -0.8%, Microsoft -0.6%, Tesla -0.8%).

  • Airbnb (ABNB) is up around 4.8% after the travel-booking platform’s first-quarter revenue forecast exceeded the average analyst estimate.
  • Applied Materials (AMAT) is up 11% after the semiconductor capital equipment company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook for adjusted earnings that is above the analyst consensus.
  • DraftKings (DKNG) slides 15% after the sports betting company’s revenue forecast for 2026 missed the average analyst estimate.
  • Dutch Bros (BROS) jumps 13% after the coffee chain reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that surpassed Wall Street estimates.
  • Pinterest (PINS) is down around 20% after the social media company’s first-quarter forecast was weaker than expected.
  • Tri Pointe Homes (TPH) rose 27% after Sumitomo Forestry says it will acquire the company for around $4.28 billion.

In corporate news, Goldman Sachs’ top lawyer, Kathy Ruemmler, is leaving the firm following a cache of Department of Justice documents showing her links with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

The sharp swings this week have highlighted how quickly shifts in sentiment around AI can reverberate far beyond the technology sector. The so-called AI scare trade has seen knee-jerk selloffs in sectors from logistics to software providers amid fear the technology will hurt their businesses.  Meanwhile, investors are watching Friday’s January inflation print to see if it reinforces strong jobs numbers earlier in the week, which prompted traders to curb bets on interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The median forecast predicts a year-over-year increase of 2.5% for the core consumer price index.

“What could help the market is if inflation comes in softer than expected,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum. “The strong labor market data earlier this week has reduced hopes for rate cuts by the Fed, yet if inflation continues to cool off, we think the Fed might be willing to add more rate cuts in the mix.”

Punishment has turned “brutal” for any stocks perceived to be at risk from AI disruption, according to Joel Kulina, managing director for TMT trading at Wedbush Securities.The worries over AI-fueled disruption underscore a sea change in market sentiment. Enthusiasm for the technology drove the lion’s share of stock market gains over the last few years.  That’s been replaced by concerns that the newest tools released by Google, closely held AI developer Anthropic and a slew of lesser-known startups are already good enough to threaten a wide array of companies, many far outside the umbrella of technology.

“The number one issue for the market: AI has now become a net negative, pressuring equities,” Kulina says. “‘Sell first, ask questions later’ has been the mentality on a day-to-day basis this month. Megacaps remain capital intense, likely leading to less free cash flow and buybacks on one hand, while decimating legacy industries due to fears of severe disruption on the other.” In the latest such episode, Algorhythm Holdings, a former karaoke company turned AI developer with a stock-market value of only $6 million, announced a logistics platform that triggered a 6.6% slide in the Russell 3000 Trucking Index on Thursday.

Volatility, already stirring, may flare up further as traders square off positions to cut risk before the Presidents’ Day holiday on Monday and Lunar New Year holidays in China and several other Asian markets next week. After Wednesday’s surprisingly strong jobs report prompted traders to pare bets on rate cuts by the Fed, inflation data numbers due at 8:30 a.m. ET have added significance. “The CPI tends to run hot in January as businesses often hike prices in the beginning of the year, a phenomenon that statistical adjustments can’t completely strip out,” according to Bloomberg Economics chief economist Anna Wong. She expects headline consumer prices to rise 0.20% month-on-month, slower than the 0.31% increase in December. Remove volatile food and energy prices, and core consumer prices are predicted to rise 0.31% in January, up from 0.24% the previous month.

European stocks extend declines from the prior session. Stoxx 600 down 0.5% technology stocks outperform as a selloff in sectors deemed at risk from artificial intelligence eases, while basic resources lag on reports the Trump administration is planning to scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminum goods. FTSE 100 and the DAX slightly outperforming.Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday: 

  • Safran shares rise as much as 8% to a record high, after the French engine manufacturer improved its guidance for 2026 and lifted its outlook for 2028, expecting a strong civil engines aftermarket and momentum on defense.
  • RELX shares rise as much as 5.9%, the most since April, after BofA Securities said the information and analytics provider is one of its top stocks for this year and that this week’s results shows the recent de-rating is overdone.
  • DataWalk shares surge as much as 7.2%, bucking a broader selloff on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, after the Polish data processing company’s accelerated book-building saw shares priced above Thursday’s closing level.
  • Kalmar shares gain as much as 8.2%, hitting a record high, after releasing its fourth-quarter results and announcing a “major order” from Maher Terminals for 30 hybrid straddle carriers.
  • NatWest shares swing between gains and losses on Friday after the UK lender posted a strong profit beat, currently trading 1.5% down as Shore Capital analysts flag its outlook is yet to take the recently announced deal to buy Evelyn into account.
  • L’Oréal shares drop as much as 7%, the most since October, after the beauty company reported like-for-like sales for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
  • Tomra shares drop as much as 9.3%, the most since October, after the recycler reported fourth quarter revenues below consensus and DNB Carnegie said it sees “muted” collections.
  • SSAB shares slide as much as 8.9%, leading a drop in European miners after the Financial Times reported the Trump administration is planning to scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminum goods, which would ease market disruptions.
  • Norsk Hydro shares fall as much 6.6%, the most since 2023, as analysts called the company’s guidance weak, due to soft pricing and pressure in the aluminum extrusions business.
  • Elkem shares fall as much as 13% in Oslo, the most since July, after the company agreed to sell the majority of its silicones division to Bluestar — a deal in which “many investors might have thought there would be a sale for cash,” Morgan Stanley analysts write.
  • Huhtamaki shares decline as much as 5.5% following the Finnish consumer packaging firm’s fourth-quarter results, which DNB Carnegie noted showed organic sales continuing to decline.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, as the region’s AI-driven rally took a breather after US tech shares tumbled overnight. Shares in Hong Kong led losses ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.5%, snapping five days of gains. Still, the gauge is on track for its best week since September 2024, after hitting fresh records every day this week through Thursday. Equity benchmarks in Japan, South Korea and mainland China also fell. Despite the near-term pullback, Asian stocks have demonstrated resilience against the broad selloff driven by Wall Street’s fears of business disruption caused by artificial intelligence. The region is seeing more foreign demand as investors rotate away from crowded US trades and seek exposure in Asia’s AI supply chain. Equity markets in mainland China and Taiwan will remain shut all of next week, while Hong Kong is closed for three of the days. 

Citigroup is raising the pay of CEO Jane Fraser to $42 million for 2025, making her among the best compensated US banking heads. Clear Street, a Wall Street broker built on cloud computing technology, postponed its IPO after cutting the target by nearly two thirds. And Coinbase Global showed how quickly a cooling crypto market can pressure even one of the industry’s most diversified exchanges. Revenue in the fourth quarter tumbled a more-than-estimated 20% to $1.8 billion as falling token prices drained trading activity across digital assets.

“Today’s pullback looks like a healthy pause within a broader upward trend,” said Tareck Horchani, head of sales trading, prime brokerage at Maybank Securities in Singapore. “Near term, I expect choppier price action driven by global tech sentiment and positioning flows, but the underlying earnings trajectory, especially in semiconductors, and sustained foreign inflows should continue to provide support once liquidity normalizes.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.2%, with yen and the Aussie dollar underperforming. Russia’s central bank cut rates by 50bps versus expectation for a hold.

In rates, treasuries are little changed in early US session, holding most of Thursday’s curve-flattening gains as focus shifts to January US CPI report at 8:30am New York time. Yields remain within 1bp of Thursday’s closing levels, the 10-year near 4.11%, lagging bunds and gilts in the sector by 2bp-3bp. 2s10s spread is near 65bp, about 6bp flatter on the week.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures fell on a report that some OPEC+ nations see scope for output hikes. Gold is steadying short of $5,000/oz.

Friday's US economic calendar slate includes January CPI at 8:30am. No Fed speakers are scheduled

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini -0.2%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
  • Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
  • DAX +0.1%
  • CAC 40 -0.2%
  • 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.12%
  • VIX -0.4 points at 20.47
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1183.57
  • euro -0.1% at $1.1857
  • WTI crude +0.2% at $62.99/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • The US and Taiwan signed a trade deal to cut tariffs and boost access for American products in Asia, including a pledge by Taipei to buy more than $44 billion worth of LNG and crude. BBG
  • Ukraine and Russia peace talks process remain stuck, primarily over territorial concessions and security guarantees. Politico
  • OpenAI told US lawmakers that DeepSeek used unfair methods to extract results from leading rival models to train its next-gen chatbot. BBG
  • The Central Intelligence Agency released a new video on Thursday seeking to capitalize on upheaval at the top of China’s armed forces to recruit potential spies. WSJ
  • Trump is planning to scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminum goods as he battles an affordability crisis that has sapped his approval ratings ahead of November’s midterm elections. FT
  • Bank of Japan policy board member Naoki Tamura floated the possibility that the bank could soon declare that its price target has been achieved, as the nation’s inflation is becoming stickier. WSJ
  • The Pentagon is sending the Navy’s largest and most advanced aircraft carrier to the Middle East, as the U.S. steps up plans for a potential attack on Iran, two U.S. officials said. WSJ
  • Tech and banking trade groups are among others that are urging the Trump administration to not change the federal framework they have been using to safely deploy AI: Axios 

Trade/Tariffs 

  • China and the US held an anti-drug intelligence exchange meeting on February 10th-12th, Xinhua reported; both sides agreed to promote healthy and practical anti-drug cooperation.
  • China's Ministry of Commerce holds a roundtable with German firms; hopes that German companies can increase investment in China.
  • US President Trump plans to roll back tariffs on metal and aluminium goods, according to FT.
  • Japan's Trade Minister Akazawa engaged with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick on US-bound investment initiatives and confirmed progress on talks to launch the USD 550bln investment.
  • Taiwan President Lai said trade deal with US marks a pivotal moment for Taiwan's economy and industries, adds we secured significant benefits for Taiwan's industries and overall economy, and we solidified the Taiwan-US high-tech strategic partnership.
  • US Department of Commerce increases duties on Chinese battery-grade graphite to 160% related to Novonix (NVX).
  • US and Taiwan sign a reciprocal trade agreement with Taiwan to eliminate or reduce 99% of tariff barriers on US goods, while US confirms 15% tariff rate on Taiwanese goods.
  • US and North Macedonia agreed to a trade framework with the US to impose 15% tariff on North Macedonian goods, while North Macedonia is to eliminate all tariffs on US goods.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region took its cue from the losses stateside, where tech underperformed as AI-disruption concerns re-emerged, and logistics/industrials stocks were also pressured after Algorhythm Holdings (RIME) released its AI freight scaling tool. ASX 200 was dragged lower by losses in tech stocks, and as participants also digested earnings releases. Nikkei 225 retreated at the open after recent currency strength and with focus also on earnings reports, including from SoftBank, which returned to profit in Q3 but missed expectations, while its shares were also not helped by its AI exposure. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp suffered alongside the broad downbeat mood in the region, and despite reports that President Trump paused some China tech bans ahead of his summit with Xi in April, while it is also the last trading day in the mainland before the Lunar New Year and Spring Festival holiday closures.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese New Yuan Loans (Jan) 4710B vs. Exp. 5000B (Prev. 910B).
  • Chinese M2 Money Supply YoY (Jan) Y/Y 9% vs. Exp. 8.4% (Prev. 8.5%).
  • Chinese Total Social Financing (Jan) 7220B vs. Exp. 7050B (Prev. 2210B).
  • Chinese Outstanding Loan Growth YoY (Jan) Y/Y 6.1% vs. Exp. 6.2% (Prev. 6.4%).
  • Chinese House Price Index MM (Jan) Y/Y -0.4% (Prev. -0.4%).
  • Chinese House Price Index YoY (Jan) Y/Y -3.1% (Prev. -2.7%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) are trading mixed as the end of the week nears. SMI (+0.6%) leads its European peers, closely followed by the AEX (+0.5%). On the other hand, the CAC 40 (-0.2%) is the slight laggard following a mixed bag of earnings coming out of France. European sectors are mixed. Technology (+1.3%) sits comfortably at the top of the pile, followed by Insurance (+0.6%) and Industrial Goods  and Services (+0.5%). Upside in Tech follows on from the earnings by Applied Materials, which posted positive earnings and Q2 forecasts. Sitting at the bottom lies Basic Resources (-1.3%), as miners react to the selloff in metals prices. Consumer Products and Services (-0.7%) is weighed on by L'Oreal (-3.5%) post-earnings.

Top European News

  • UK PM Starmer is set to call for multinational defence initiative to cut costs of rearmament, according to FT

FX

  • DXY is currently trading with very mild gains and trades at the midpoint of a 96.89-97.15 range. Really not much driving things for the index this morning, with traders awaiting the US CPI report later. On that, the headline is expected to rise +0.3% M/M (prev. 0.3%), and core rising at a rate of 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.2%). UBS said easing inflation should keep the Fed on track for rate cuts despite strong jobs data, forecasting two 25bps reductions in June and September, while FOMC projections indicate one additional cut this year. In terms of recent price action, ING notes that there has been a strong inclination to sell USD rallies this week, as such, analysts “struggle to see the dollar recover substantially from here”.
  • G10s are mixed against the USD, with the NZD and CAD holding around the unchanged mark, whilst the CHF, AUD and JPY hold towards the foot of the pile, with the latter the clear underperformer. EUR was little moved by the EZ GDP 2nd estimates and Employment change, which printed more-or-less in-line with expectations.
  • Really not much driving things for the JPY this morning, with the weakness potentially a slight paring of a four-day winning streak seen following PM Takaichi’s landslide victory. Focus has been on Takaichi’s remarks that she will adhere to fiscal responsibility, with attention also on comments via FinMin Katayama, who noted that the foodstuff tax cut could be funded by foreign reserves. On the monetary policy side of things, markets now see the chance of faster BoJ normalisation; on that, BoJ’s Tamura (Hawk) suggested inflation is becoming “sticky”, and flagged the chance of a rate hike “this spring”. On the neutral rate, he suggested that the policy rate is “very distant” from the neutral rate. USD/JPY was little moved by his comments, and currently trades at the upper end of a 152.63-153.66 range.
  • CHF is slightly lower this morning, in the aftermath of the region’s inflation data; the Y/Y metric printed in-line with the consensus, whilst the M/M metric was a touch below the prior and surprisingly fell into negative territory. The CHF initially weakened on the report, before scaling back much of the pressure thereafter. It is worth reminding that SNB’s Schlegel suggested that the Bank is willing “look through negative months of inflation”, adding that the bar to negative rates is high.

Central Banks

  • Fed's Miran (voter) said some of the concern he has on labour markets is a little less than he had before, adds a range of policies are pushing out the supply of the economy and will increase economic growth in a non-inflationary way. said:. Fed is one of the biggest risks to growth. Monetary policy has passively tightened. We may be underestimating how restrictive monetary policy actually is.
  • BoJ's Tamura said he feels Japan's recent inflation is becoming sticky and reiterates will keep raising rates if outlook is met, adds we may be able to judge that BoJ's price goal has been achieved as early as this spring. Added that even if the BoJ raises the policy rate further, monetary conditions will remain accommodative.
  • Japan's PM Takaichi is to meet with BoJ Governor Ueda on February 16th at 17:00JST / 08:00GMT.
  • Japanese PM Takaichi's advisor Honda suggests the BoJ may consider raising interest rates later this year, but noted the unlikelihood of a hike in March.
  • ECB's Kazaks said the ECB has yet to see full impact of EUR appreciation; he worries strong EUR reflects dollar weakness; said now is not the time for ECB to move interest rates; said ECB officials are on monitoring mode on EUR strength.
  • PBoC's new emphasis on overnight money market rate has reportedly sparked speculation it could become the main policy target.
  • Riksbank's Jansson said January inflation confirmed the picture of downside risks to inflation. Figures for GDP and consumption have been a little weaker recently.
  • Russian Federation Interest Rate Decision 15.50% vs. Exp. 16% (Prev. 16.00%).

Fixed Income

  • Another contained start for fixed income into US CPI and before Monday's US holiday, which coincides with the Chinese New Year holiday period.
  • USTs on the backfoot, but only marginally, going into US CPI to round off a packed week of data. Currently, at the low-end of a 112-21 to 112-28 band, and while in the red as it stands, the upper-end of that band is a new marginal WTD peak.
  • Bunds are also contained, though the benchmark finds itself firmer by a handful of ticks, but off best in 128.93 to 129.12 confines. The firmer APAC bias came from gains towards the end of the European day after German Chancellor Merz said he is not in favour of joint eurobonds, in addition to the read-across from a strong US 30yr auction.
  • Gilts opened higher by nine ticks, catching up to the strength seen on that US auction. Since, the benchmark has retreated into the red with losses of c. five ticks in 91.34 to 91.51 parameters. Ahead of US CPI today but, more pertinently for the UK, next week's packed data docket that will likely determine if the BoE cuts in April as markets currently forecast, or if March comes into consideration.
  • JGBs came under pressure to a 131.52 low after BoJ's Tamura said even if they tighten, monetary conditions will remain accommodative.
  • Japan sold JPY 649.5bln in 10yr, 20yr and 30yr JGBs in enhanced liquidity auction; b/c 2.95 vs. Prev. 2.58. Highest accepted spread -0.014% vs. Prev. +0.018%. Allotment of bids at highest spread 2.5490% vs. Prev. 86.2119%.
  • PBoC is to issue CNY 30bln in 3-month and 1-year bills in Hong Kong.
  • Australia sold AUD 1bln 2.50% May 2034 bonds, b/c 3.44, avg. yield 4.2898%.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are trading relatively flat following yesterday’s slump after dollar strength and weak risk sentiment, sparked by AI disruption woes. Adding to further downside pressure were comments from US President Trump yesterday evening that the US must make a deal with Iran and that they could reach a deal over the next month. Not much in terms of fresh catalysts thus far in the European session, as traders await US CPI. WTI and Brent are trading at the lower end range of USD 62.54-63.17/bbl and USD 67.22-67.89/bbl, respectively.
  • Precious metals are rebounding after yesterday’s decline, which was driven by a stronger US dollar following strong jobs data surpassing market expectation. There is no fresh catalyst behind today’s recovery, though some analysts attribute the move to dip-buying after the recent sell-off. Spot gold is currently trading near the upper end of USD 4,885.89–4,997.53/oz range, while silver is holding at the upper range of USD 73.745–79.085/oz.
  • Copper trades slightly lower triggered by downbeat sentiment in Wall Street and APAC, although Europe fares somewhat better. The red metal trades at the lower end range of 12,800-13,021/t. Other relevant news in the metal space includes the Shanghai Weekly updating their Warehouse changes before the Chinese holiday: Copper +9.47%, Nickel +2.29%, Aluminium +21.3%.
  • Indonesia's Mining Minister said we are studying a plan to ban exports on a number of raw materials next year, which includes tin.
  • India's Reliance has reportedly been awarded general authorisation from the US to buy Venezuelan Oil.
  • Three people reportedly burnt at Exxon's (XOM) Beaumont facility.
  • Shanghai Weekly Warehouse Changes: Copper +9.47%, Nickel +2.29%, Aluminium +21.3%.
  • ANZ revises gold price forecast, now sees gold hitting USD 5,800/oz in Q2 vs. previous forecast of USD 5,400/oz.
  • Qatar hikes April term price for Al Shaheen oil to USD 0.87/bbl over Dubai quotes, according sources.
  • Shenzhen financial regulator issues public notice to further standardise gold market operations.

Trade/Tariffs

  • China and the US held an anti-drug intelligence exchange meeting on February 10th-12th, Xinhua reported; both sides agreed to promote healthy and practical anti-drug cooperation.
  • China's Ministry of Commerce holds a roundtable with German firms; hopes that German companies can increase investment in China.
  • US President Trump plans to roll back tariffs on metal and aluminium goods, according to FT.
  • Japan's Trade Minister Akazawa engaged with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick on US-bound investment initiatives and confirmed progress on talks to launch the USD 550bln investment.
  • Taiwan President Lai said trade deal with US marks a pivotal moment for Taiwan's economy and industries, adds we secured significant benefits for Taiwan's industries and overall economy, and we solidified the Taiwan-US high-tech strategic partnership.
  • US Department of Commerce increases duties on Chinese battery-grade graphite to 160% related to Novonix (NVX).
  • US and Taiwan sign a reciprocal trade agreement with Taiwan to eliminate or reduce 99% of tariff barriers on US goods, while US confirms 15% tariff rate on Taiwanese goods.
  • US and North Macedonia agreed to a trade framework with the US to impose 15% tariff on North Macedonian goods, while North Macedonia is to eliminate all tariffs on US goods.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Russia's Kremlin said that new round of peace talks with Ukraine will take place next week; adds that its unlikely that discussions will move beyond talks before the conflict in Ukraine is settled.
  • US, Russia and Ukraine are planning to meet again next week, possibly in Miami or Abu Dhabi, POLITICO reported.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • US aircraft carrier U.S.S Gerald R. Ford will be sent to the Middle East from Venezuela, according to officials cited by NYT.

Geopolitics: Other

  • Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said Russia will provide Cuba with material assistance, TASS reported.
  • Russia's Kremlin said they did not decide to stop using the dollar but that the US imposed restrictions, dollar will have to compete with other currencies if the US lifts restrictions.
  • Japan seizes a Chinese fishing boat off the Nagasaki coast, according to Japanese press.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: United States Jan CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30 am: United States Jan Core CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30 am: United States Jan CPI YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.7%
  • 8:30 am: United States Jan Core CPI YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.6%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Friday 13th came a day early for risk assets yesterday and although the sell-off is continuing this morning in Asia, US futures are more stable as I type. It’s perhaps indicative of the state of markets at the moment that a $6 million market cap company that until recently specialised in Karaoke helped wipe tens of billions off logistics stocks to add to the weakness. I've seen some shocking Karaoke performances in my time but this perhaps tops them all. Overall the S&P 500 (-1.57%) slid to a third consecutive decline. Once again, software stocks in the index were one of the worst hit, falling -1.49%, but it was a rough day for tech in general, with the Magnificent 7 (-2.24%) and the NASDAQ (-2.03%) both losing significant ground. Matters weren’t helped by some weaker US data, which added to the risk-off tone, leading to clear signs of financial stress across several asset classes. Indeed, Bitcoin (-2.92%) fell for a 4th consecutive session, credit spreads widened on both sides of the Atlantic, and silver (-10.67%) posted another sharp decline.

Tech stocks were in the driving seat of yesterday’s selloff, although unlike some sessions recently, the move was a broad-based one as investors reckoned with the AI-led disruption of various industries. In terms of the movers, Cisco Systems (-12.32%) was one of the worst performers, posting its worst daily performance since 2022 as investors reacted to its latest earnings. On some days, that would make the worst performer in the entire S&P, but there were 7 companies that saw a double-digit decline yesterday, which just shows the adjustment taking place. One of those double-digit declines was CH Robinson Worldwide (-14.54%), as global logistic companies were the latest industry to see artificial intelligence concerns as a very small AI logistics company called Algorhythm Holdings (formerly a Karaoke company) said its SemiCab platform helped customers scale freight volumes by 300% to 400% without a corresponding increase in headcount. The Russell 3000 trucking index fell -6.64% as companies of all size reacted to the news.

Old fears were rekindled within commercial real estate as well as CBRE (-8.84%), a commercial real estate company, saw large losses for a second day following comments from their CEO saying “If there are less office workers in the long run as a result of AI, there will be less demand for office space. That would be a long-term trend to unfold.” So, the market continues to price in further AI disruption across industries, sometimes in the most abstract way.

S&P Financials (-1.99%) also saw a sharp decline, as the KBW Bank Index (-3.21%) posted its worst performance since October. And there were signs of the selloff broadening out, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-1.31%) falling back from its record high the previous day, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.49%) also fell back from Wednesday’s record. European credit markets were relatively steady as EUR IG was unchanged at 75bps, while EUR HY spreads were just 1bp wider to 264bps. USD IG spreads were 2bps wider to 77bps and USD HY spreads moved 12bps wider to 275bps.

Looking forward, attention will today turn to the US CPI print for January, which is a couple of days later than expected because of the partial government shutdown. This is an important one, because markets are still expecting further rate cuts under a new Fed Chair, but stronger data like the jobs report on Wednesday has led to a bit more doubt as to whether that’s still possible. So another hawkish print today would further push in that direction, particularly given this quarter is already seeing a decent fiscal impulse from the Trump tax cuts.
In terms of what to expect, our US economists forecast that monthly headline CPI would be at +0.26% in January, down from +0.31% in December. And if realised, that would take the year-on-year CPI rate down to +2.5%. However, they think that headline inflation would be weighed down by a -2.4% decline in motor fuel prices, meaning that core CPI should be relatively strong at +0.35% on the month.

Otherwise, they’re keeping an eye on tariff-related strength in core goods, as they expect a continued impact in categories like household furnishings and supplies, as well as apparel. For more details, click here for their preview and to register for their subsequent webinar.  
Ahead of that release, Treasury yields fell across the curve, driven by the wider risk-off move as well as some weaker US data. For instance, the weekly initial jobless claims were a bit higher than expected, coming in at 227k in the week ending February 7 (vs. 223k expected). Meanwhile, existing home sales were down to an annualised rate of 3.91m in January (vs. 4.15m expected). So that further dampened sentiment, and expectations for Fed rate cuts this year moved back up again. For instance, the amount of cuts priced in by the December meeting was up +5.3bps on the day to 53bps. And in turn, yields on 2yr Treasuries (-5.4bps) fell back to 3.456%, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (-7.4bps) fell to 4.098%. Yields have moved back up +1 to +1.5bps across the curve this morning.

Oil prices had already been moving lower along with other risk assets, but the selloff gained momentum amid a bevy of headlines that pointed to greater supply. Brent crude futures closed -2.71% lower on the day, finishing at $67.52/bbl. First, there were comments from US Energy Secretary Wright that China had bought crude from the US that was previously purchased from Venezuela. This was followed by comments later in the day from Interior Secretary Burgum, who said during an event in Washington that the US would be selling Venezuelan oil to China at global market price levels. Bloomberg reported that Venezuelan officials are set to grant more oil permits to Chevron and Repsol, adding credence to the potential for further supply in the medium term. Staying with the US, President Trump reiterated his preference to “reach a deal” with Iran and said that it could come together “over the next month, something like that.” Additionally, there was reporting from Bloomberg that showed Russia had included returning to the dollar settlement system as part of a greater re-framing of the US-Russia economic relationship.

Staying in commodities, gold saw a sharp sell-off of their own despite its traditional haven status. The story of Russia returning to the dollar payment system probably contributed. Gold prices fell -3.19% to $4922/oz, while silver (-10.67%) and copper (-3.02%) also saw outsized moves. As noted above there was more crypto weakness as bitcoin fell -2.92% and is under 5% away from last week’s lows, which was the lowest level since October 2024.

Earlier in Europe, the main highlight yesterday was the EU leaders summit in Belgium. At the summit, EU leaders sought to move forward with reforms to bolster Europe’s economy and improve regional coordination. There were many proposals with various champions. French President Macron pushed a “Buy European” agenda, which remains on the table as European Council president Costa said, “ I feel that there is a broad agreement on the need to use (European preference) in the selected strategic sectors, in the proportional and targeted way.” German Chancellor Merz and Italian PM Meloni called for greater deregulation, with PM Meloni saying that the EU “ cannot continue to hyperregulate…there's no time to lose.” On the matter of greater joint debt,  most leaders were calling for greater stimulus, however Merz seemed unmoved saying, “We have taken on European debt in exceptional situations -- but those were exceptional situations…We have to make do with the money we have."

Across the Channel, UK gilts outperformed after the latest UK GDP print came in softer than expected. It showed Q4 GDP up by +0.1% (vs. +0.2% expected), which left annual GDP growth for 2025 at +1.3%. So with the downside surprise in the Q4 number, investors priced in more rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, and the 2yr gilt yield (-2.1bps) fell to just 3.60%, its lowest level since August 2024, whilst the 10yr gilt yield (-2.4bps) fell to 4.45%. And elsewhere in Europe, there was a smaller decline that left yields on 10yr bunds (-1.3bps), OATs (-1.5bps) and BTPs (-1.3bps) lower as well.

In Asia, the AI related sell-off continues, albeit after a strong week in the region. The Hang Seng (-2.10%) stands out as the largest underperformer, with the CSI (-0.92%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.85%) also lower. The Nikkei (-1.22%) is also weak but its gains so far this week are close to +5.5% post the election results. Elsewhere the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.37%) is also lower after a firmer week with the KOSPI (-0.23%) outperforming.  S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are down jus over a tenth of a percent with European ones back up a similar amount. As we go to print the FT is reporting that the US is planning to roll back some steel and aluminium tariffs that nods to our view that the tariffs headlines this year, whilst very noisy, will likely lean in a dovish direction ahead of mid-terms where the cost of living issue is likely to be decisive.

Early morning data revealed that China’s new home prices continued their decline in January, reflecting weak demand that is likely to further burden the country’s financially constrained developers. Prices decreased by -0.4% month-on-month, matching the decline observed in the previous month.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the US CPI print for January, and the second estimate of Euro Area GDP for Q4. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the BoE’s Pill.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 08:29

Aluminum Futs Slide As Trump Weighs Metal Tariff Rollback In Affordability Push

Zero Hedge -

Aluminum Futs Slide As Trump Weighs Metal Tariff Rollback In Affordability Push

Aluminum futures in London slipped on Friday after a Financial Times report stated that the Trump administration is considering a partial rollback of steel and aluminum tariffs as it battles an affordability crisis (left over from the Biden-Harris regime years) ahead of November's midterm elections.

The FT cited three people familiar with internal discussions who said White House officials are reviewing steel and aluminum import tariffs of up to 50%, which affect a wide range of downstream consumer products such as appliances to soda cans. The plan would exempt some products, pause further expansions, and shift toward narrower, product-specific national security investigations.

Trade officials at the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative believe these tariffs are already denting consumer sentiment by pushing up prices for goods such as drink cans and pie tins.

The administration is mulling carve-outs for popular food products to tame grocery-store inflation amid affordability concerns this year. Last year, Trump called for a trade war with Beijing ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.

News of the planned tariff rollback on aluminum and steel goods sent metal futures in London falling on Friday morning.

Aluminum slid 1.3% to $3,059 a ton on the LME. Zinc dropped 1.4%, while copper fell by about half a percent after available LME inventories posted their largest increase since July.

The Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex (core contracts: aluminum, copper, nickel, lead, and zinc futures) appears to have formed yet another peak since 2022 and is still trading well below its Covid-era high.

What is clear for companies operating in this space is that navigating the U.S. tariff regime has become arduous, with tariffs appearing to change monthly.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 08:20

Bitcoin Advances Toward Quantum Resistance With Proposed Update

Zero Hedge -

Bitcoin Advances Toward Quantum Resistance With Proposed Update

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via Bitcoin Magazine,

BIP 360, a proposal aimed at preparing Bitcoin for future computing threats, has been updated and merged into the official Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) GitHub repository, marking a new step in efforts to strengthen the network against emerging cryptographic and quantum computing risks. 

The proposal introduces a new Bitcoin output type called Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), designed to support quantum-resistant script tree functionality while maintaining compatibility with existing Tapscript infrastructure, according to a note seen by Bitcoin Magazine.

Supporters of BIP 360 describe the proposal as an early move toward quantum-hardening Bitcoin at the protocol level.

A merge into the BIP repository does not signal endorsement or future activation. BIPs are merged as part of the open process for documenting or discussing potential upgrades.

Bitcoin at risk from Quantum computing in theory

Quantum computing has raised concerns across the cryptography and cybersecurity fields because sufficiently advanced machines may be able to break widely used cryptographic systems.

In Bitcoin’s case, the threat centers on the possibility that computers could derive private keys from exposed public keys, which could lead to stolen funds.

While all Bitcoin addresses become vulnerable when spending reveals a public key, some output types carry greater exposure. 

Taproot addresses, along with Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) outputs and reused addresses, are considered more at risk because public keys are visible on-chain.

P2MR is conceptually similar to Taproot but removes a key weakness. Taproot includes a key-path spending method that can expose public keys. The proposed P2MR output type disables that key-path spend and commits only to the script path, reducing the surface area for potential attacks.

The BIP’s authors say the proposal is meant to serve as a foundation for later upgrades that could introduce post-quantum signature schemes into Bitcoin through follow-on soft forks. The note points to algorithms such as ML-DSA (Dilithium) and SLH-DSA (SPHINCS+) as possible candidates.

“Ultimately, the introduction of BIP 360 and P2MR is a first step in a larger set of quantum-resistance proposals that will be necessary to quantum-harden Bitcoin,” said co-author Hunter Beast, a Bitcoin developer and senior protocol engineer at MARA. 

Beast added that the team is also exploring proposals to address vulnerable coins that are unlikely to move, including long-dormant holdings.

The latest update adds Isabel Foxen Duke as a co-author alongside Beast and cryptographic researcher Ethan Heilman.

Duke, a technical communications specialist, said the goal was to make the proposal understandable beyond the developer community.

“Given the sensitivity of the subject matter, we aimed to ensure the BIP was written in a manner that was clear and understandable to the general public,” Duke said.

The proposal arrives as governments and major technology firms increase investment in post-quantum cryptography. 

The U.S. National Security Agency’s CNSA 2.0 framework calls for quantum-safe systems by 2030, while the National Institute of Standards and Technology plans to phase out elliptic curve cryptography in federal systems in the mid-2030s.

Supporters argue that BIP 360 aligns Bitcoin with a broader shift toward quantum-safe security standards, positioning the network to adapt as computing capabilities advance.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 08:05

Goldman Sacks Ruemmler As Epstein Scandal Claims Obama's Former Lawyer

Zero Hedge -

Goldman Sacks Ruemmler As Epstein Scandal Claims Obama's Former Lawyer

What do Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Susan Rice, Jeffrey Epstein, the Rothschilds, and Goldman Sachs all have in common?

Kathy Ruemmler... Goldman's (soon to be former) top lawyer, after a batch of documents released by Congress and the DOJ revealed she was thick as thieves with Epstein.

Ruemmler rose to the top ranks of Wall Street, becoming a key advisor to Goldman CEO David Solomon after serving as White House counsel to former President Barack Obama. 

While she allegedly told the bank that her relationship with Epstein was limited and "purely professional," turns out she lied (or they knew, which makes it worse). It would later become public that she not only met with Epstein dozens of times and exchanged friendly emails for years, she was listed as an executor of Epstein's will as recently as Jan. 18, 2019 - which had been removed before he died in prison on Aug. 10 of that year. 

What's more, the Washington Free Beacon reported late last month that Epstein showered her with luxury gifts - including a $9,400 Hermes handbag, a Hermes-branded Apple watch, and a spa treatment package at the Four Seasons Hotel in Washington DC. 

She also denied having ever helped Epstein with PR, telling the outlet "I did not advocate on his behalf to any third party—not to a court, not to the press, not to the government."

Turns out that was a total lie. 

On Friday, the DOJ released over 3 million pages of Epstein documents, including one in which Ruemmler was helping draft statements to help Epstein counter claims that he got a "sweetheart deal" when he was allowed to plead guilty to minor charges in a 2007-2008 sex trafficking case involving dozens of underage girls. 

Just over three weeks ago, Goldman vehemently denied that that plans were afoot to fire Ruemmler. Turns out, not so much. 

Kathy's Out

On Thursday, the Financial Times reported that Ruemmler will resign on June 30 - (aka they fired her and let her resign), saying in a statement to the outlet "I made the determination that the media attention on me, relating to my prior work as a defence attorney, was becoming a distraction."

Her decision comes after documents showed she held extensive discussions with Epstein between 2014 and 2019, long after he pleaded guilty in 2008 to state charges of soliciting prostitution from a minor. Ruemmler joined Goldman in 2020.

Goldman chief executive David Solomon has stood by Ruemmler since her close association with Epstein first emerged in 2023. He said in a statement on Thursday that she “will be missed”. -FT

Ruemmler has said she regrets ever knowing Epstein and that she didn't know about his criminal activities, which we're sure isn't just because she got caught. 

Interestingly, Ruemmler once arranged an advantageous settlement for the Rothschild family with the Obama DOJ, for which she was reportedly paid $10 million and Epstein was paid $25 million. 

Developing...

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 08:00

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