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Mississippi Has The Highest Credit Card Delinquency Rate, Florida The Lowest

Zero Hedge -

Mississippi Has The Highest Credit Card Delinquency Rate, Florida The Lowest

The map, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, highlights how credit card delinquency varies widely across the U.S. in 2025.

These figures represent the share of credit card accounts that became 30 or more days past due from Q1 to Q2. The data for this visualization comes from WalletHub.

Southern States Lead in Delinquencies

The Deep South stands out with the nation’s highest delinquency rates. Mississippi tops the list at 37%, followed by Louisiana at 32% and Alabama at 31%.

These levels are far above the national norm and suggest elevated financial pressures, including lower median incomes and higher reliance on revolving debt. Several neighboring states—Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and South Carolina—also exceed 25%.

Rank State Credit Card Delinquency (Q1-Q2, 2025) 1 Mississippi 36.69% 2 Louisiana 32.11% 3 Alabama 30.52% 4 Arkansas 28.11% 5 South Carolina 25.49% 6 Oklahoma 25.43% 7 Texas 24.77% 8 Tennessee 24.62% 9 North Carolina 24.19% 10 Kentucky 24.07% 11 Indiana 23.92% 12 West Virginia 23.71% 13 Delaware 22.76% 14 Georgia 22.40% 15 Missouri 22.26% 16 New Mexico 21.37% 17 Pennsylvania 21.08% 18 Michigan 20.89% 19 South Dakota 20.64% 20 Wyoming 20.23% 21 Kansas 19.76% 22 Arizona 19.72% 23 Nebraska 19.71% 24 Ohio 19.66% 25 Maryland 19.45% 26 Minnesota 19.17% 27 Virginia 19.09% 28 Nevada 18.58% 29 Idaho 18.42% 30 Wisconsin 18.35% 31 Maine 18.27% 32 Connecticut 18.16% 33 Oregon 17.87% 34 Montana 17.17% 35 Alaska 16.90% 36 Colorado 16.85% 37 Illinois 16.58% 38 New Jersey 16.57% 39 North Dakota 16.26% 40 New Hampshire 15.59% 41 New York 15.53% 42 Rhode Island 15.21% 43 California 15.08% 44 Washington 14.99% 45 Utah 14.94% 46 Hawaii 14.90% 47 Massachusetts 14.68% 48 Vermont 14.67% 49 Iowa 14.36% 50 Florida 13.99% Midwestern and Northeastern States Remain More Stable

Most states across the Midwest and Northeast report delinquency shares between 15% and 21%. These levels reflect more stable household budgets and stronger credit profiles.

States like Iowa (14%) and Minnesota (19%) show some of the lowest delinquency rates, pointing to higher financial resilience.

Western States Show Mixed Patterns

The Western U.S. presents a more mixed landscape. California, Washington, Utah, and Hawaii all sit near the lower end at around 15%, suggesting relatively healthy consumer finances despite high living costs.

Meanwhile, states like Arizona and Nevada land closer to 19–20% in late payments.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The United States of Unemployment on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 21:20

New York Archdiocese Agrees To Mediation For Settling 1,300 Claims Of Sexual Abuse

Zero Hedge -

New York Archdiocese Agrees To Mediation For Settling 1,300 Claims Of Sexual Abuse

Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Roman Catholic Church in New York and more than 1,300 people who have accused its priests and lay employees of sexual abuse have agreed to enter mediation to resolve the claims.

Archbishop of New York cardinal Timothy Dolan holds his homily during a Mass in his own titular Church ‘Nostra Signora di Guadalupe a Monte Mario’ at the northern outskirts of Romeб on May 4, 2025 in Rome, Italy. Franco Origlia/Getty Images

Announcing the negotiations on Dec. 8, the Archdiocese of New York said it hopes to reach a global settlement that would provide victim-survivors with “the most financial compensation possible.”

Cardinal Timothy Dolan, who has led the archdiocese since 2009, said in an open letter that “darkness has cast a shadow” on the church.

“As we have repeatedly acknowledged, the sexual abuse of minors long ago has brought shame upon our Church. I once again ask forgiveness for the failing of those who betrayed the trust placed in them by failing to provide for the safety of our young people,” Dolan said. “Yet, as our faith teaches us, light will always conquer darkness.”

The Archdiocese of New York, which serves 2.5 million Catholics across nearly 300 parishes—the second-largest population of registered Catholics nationwide after the Archdiocese of Los Angeles—has taken the significant and necessary further steps to allow it to “bring peace and consolation to victim-survivors and their families,” Dolan said.

Adding to voluntary compensation efforts by the archdiocese in 2016, dubbed the Independent Reconciliation and Compensation Program (IRCP), the cardinal said the church has “made a series of very difficult financial decisions” that, when finalised, should liquidate at least $300 million “to provide compensation to survivors of sexual abuse.”

The decisions included laying off staff, cutting 10 percent of the operating budget, and selling significant real estate assets. The sales include the former archdiocesan headquarters on First Avenue in Manhattan.

Dolan also said the compensation efforts were being complicated by ongoing legal struggles with Chubb Insurance Companies, which ‌has refused to pay claims for policies that included “coverage for sexual misconduct claims, for itself and the parishes, schools, and archdiocesan charitable organizations.” The church said it had purchased such general liability insurance coverage for ‌the decades coinciding with the allegations of abuse.

Despite accepting millions in premiums from the archdiocese, Chubb has steadfastly refused to honor the policies it issued,” the cardinal said.

Chubb accused the ​archdiocese of tolerating and covering up child sexual abuse for decades and called for more transparency, saying the archdiocese has refused to share “what they knew and when.”

St. Patrick's Cathedral, the seat of the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of New York, in New York City, on Sept. 8, 2015. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

“The insurance that the Archdiocese bought covers accidents, it does not provide compensation for knowingly allowing a pattern of abuse to persist for many years,” Chubb said in a statement. “There’s a reason insurance doesn’t cover this kind of behavior as it would reward those who facilitate criminal conduct rather than those who take vigilant steps to mitigate risk and protect children from abuse.”

‘Time for Reckoning’

The settlement is to be negotiated by a third-party mediator, whom both sides agreed would be retired Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge Daniel Buckley.

Buckley successfully negotiated the $880 million settlement between the Archdiocese of Los Angeles and 1,353 victim-survivors of sexual abuse in 2024. That archdiocese is the largest in the nation, with about 4.4 million registered Catholics.

Dolan also said that the parish in the archdiocese where most of the claims of abuse were filed has declared bankruptcy. That parish—Immaculate Heart of Mary Parish in Scarsdale—is facing imminent court proceedings related to “alleged abuse by a former lay employee at the parish,” the cardinal said.

Most of the lawsuits against the archdiocese were filed after New York’s Child Victims Act was enacted in 2019. It extended the statute of limitations for civil lawsuits involving child sexual abuse, creating a one-year retrospective window that allowed petitioners to file historical claims of clergy abuse.

Before this, under the archdiocese’s voluntary compensation effort established by Dolan to compensate victims abused by priests or deacons of the archdiocese, 189 victim-survivors were recognised by the church and compensated more than $40 million.

Attorney Jeff Anderson, who represents some 300 of the 1,311 accusers whose claims date from 1952 to 2020, said that the archdiocese agreed to negotiate settlements over ⁠the next two months. This is ahead of civil litigation against it that is due to come to trial next year.

The time for reckoning is now, and it’s long past due,” he said.

St. Patrick's Cathedral, the seat of the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of New York in New York City, on Sept. 8, 2015. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

He added that any settlements will have to be accompanied by full disclosure of wrongdoing and measures to prevent future abuse.

According to the archdiocese’s website, since the Catholic Bishops of the United States adopted the Charter on the Protection of Children and Young People in 2002, the church has implemented preventive measures through the “Safe Environment Program,” designed to prevent and respond to any incidents of child sexual abuse.

We are dedicated to insure the safety of children and young people who have been entrusted to our care in our parishes, schools, religious education classes and other programs,” the website notice reads.

The archdiocese said that since the charter’s adoption, it has identified only one case of credible sexual abuse of a minor involving an active clergyman. Law enforcement was immediately notified and handled the case. The priest was also removed from ministry by the archdiocesan review board.

“Please join me in praying for the victim-survivors, their families, and all who have experienced the horror of abuse,” Dolan said. “It is my heartfelt prayer that together as a family of faith, we may experience healing, hope, and light this Christmas season.”

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 20:55

Oil Trading Giant Warns Of Looming "Super Glut" Due To Supply Surge

Zero Hedge -

Oil Trading Giant Warns Of Looming "Super Glut" Due To Supply Surge

Echoing what has become a now daily refrain by commodity bears everywhere, Saad Rahim, chief economist of commodity-trading giant, Trafigura, said that the oil market faces a “super glut” next year as a burst of new supply collides with weakness in the global economy. According to Rahim, new drilling projects and slowing demand growth would weigh further on already depressed crude prices next year.

“Whether it’s a glut, or a super glut, it’s hard to get away from that,” Rahim said in remarks alongside the company’s annual results.

Brent crude has fallen 16% this year, on track for its worst year since 2020. Prices are expected to be further damped by major projects coming online next year, including in Brazil and Guyana. 

The glut thesis is hardly new, and has been popularized by banks such as Citi and Goldman for the past year. As Goldman analyst Daan Struyven wrote in his latest oil tracker note, "global visible oil stocks have built by nearly 2mb/d over the past 30 days." The banks expects them to grow significantly more in the coming years.

Meanwhile demand from China, which is widely seen as aggressively stocking its strategic petroleum reserve by 500kb/d (and as much as 1 mm/d according to some estimates) and is the world’s biggest oil importer, is expected to grow more slowly next year due to its huge fleet of electric vehicles, which have sharply reduced petrol demand. Low prices this year have prompted China to buy more crude to fill its strategic stockpile.

“China needs to keep buying at this rate, for that super glut to not show up even earlier,” Rahim added.

The US government has also been trying to keep oil prices low, and President Donald Trump has pledged to “drill, baby, drill” in a push to increase American production. There has also been speculation that the US will also refill its SPR which was largely emptied by Biden but since that will promptly drive prices higher, so far this has been nothing but speculation, and meanwhile the US barely has any reserves for a true emergency. 

Ben Luckock, head of oil trading at Trafigura, said in October that he expected oil prices could fall below $60 a barrel before rallying. “I suspect we’ll go into the $50s at some point across Christmas and the new year,” he said at the time.

According to the FT,  Trafigura reported net profits of $2.7bn during the fiscal year that ended in September, down slightly from $2.8bn the previous year, and a five-year low after years of bumper profits linked to Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine when most commodity traders were breaching sanctions and making a killing in the process.

Its non-ferrous metals trading division reported a record year, due in part to the profits made by shipping copper into the US amid the disruptions caused by whipsawing tariff rules, according to people familiar with the matter.

Trafigura CEO Richard Holtum said “significant headline-driven volatility” had been a major driver for markets this year and that the trend would continue in 2026.

“Trading conditions were not easy last year and our trading team put on a really credible performance across all divisions,” said Holtum.

However, the small drop in profits, combined with rising payouts to Trafigura’s employee-shareholders, meant group equity fell slightly, to $16.2bn, from $16.3bn the previous year, marking the first time this figure has shrunk since 2018.

Payouts to Trafigura’s employees rose to $2.9bn, up from $2bn during the prior year. The company, whose top management is based in Geneva, pays out “dividends” to its employee-shareholders, including by buying back the shares of departing employees over time.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 20:30

Conrad Black: Trump's Approach To Curbing Crime Is Proving Effective

Zero Hedge -

Conrad Black: Trump's Approach To Curbing Crime Is Proving Effective

Authored by Conrad Black via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

There’s no doubt that President Donald Trump’s campaign to reduce urban crime is fundamentally popular. The overwhelming majority of Americans oppose crime, particularly violent crime that threatens them in their homes or while engaging in daily activities on city streets and sidewalks.

Some Democrats continue to align themselves with individuals and groups broadly disapproved of by the public, including violent criminals who entered the country illegally and whose civil rights are defended on technical grounds prior to deportation. The same is true for disruptive university activists who block respected speakers and threaten Jewish students.

Members of the Louisiana National Guard patrol the grounds of the Washington Monument at the National Mall in Washington on Sept. 7, 2025. AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana, File

There is broad public support for Trump’s efforts to seal the southern border and reduce the number of illegal immigrants entering the country—from approximately 3 million annually under President Joe Biden to near zero today. Understandably, urban crime and illegal immigration are closely linked in the public’s mind. While the public supports the administration’s primary goals—to sharply reduce crime and completely end unlawful entry—the president is sometimes perceived as heavy-handed. A more refined approach could help secure the support these policies warrant.

The deployment of National Guard troops in Washington has been notably effective. Even the strongly partisan Democratic mayor, Muriel Bowser, thanked the president for their presence. Violent crime has declined by more than 50 percent, and petty crimes have dropped 40 to 50 percent. At the same time, the administration has begun restoring Union Station—a historic structure long plagued by vagrancy and drug use—revamping the Kennedy Center, and adding a grand ballroom to the White House, all reportedly without taxpayer cost. The president’s commitment to restoring Washington as a city of grandeur and civic pride is widely supported, both by Washingtonians and the public at large.

Meanwhile, some Democratic leaders in cities such as Chicago have accused the federal government of an “occupation,” suggesting it has no jurisdiction, despite Chicago being part of the United States. Such objections come as Metropolitan Chicago’s gun-related crime rate is reportedly 10 times that of similarly sized Toronto. Greater law-enforcement presence is clearly needed. However, the National Guard is a costly option, especially when guardsmen are deployed from out of state. For instance, guardsmen in Washington are from West Virginia, as Democratic governors of neighboring states declined to assist. Their deployment over four months has cost more than $200 million.

The National Guard has also been deployed to Los Angeles and other cities to contain riots opposing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Border Czar Tom Homan has stated that 74 percent of deportees have violent histories and pose a threat to public safety. President Trump has emphasized that ICE targets “the worst of the worst.” While these claims may be accurate, they’re not universally accepted and would benefit from clear substantiation.

Critics—including many in the national political media—allege that the administration is targeting law-abiding, family-oriented individuals who entered illegally years ago and have since become productive residents, while some dangerous individuals escape detection. Even if the administration’s numbers are correct, that still suggests that 24 percent of deportees, according to Homan, aren’t dangerous. These individuals often become the focus of sympathetic features in outlets such as The New York Times. As with tariffs and other complex policies, the administration would benefit from refining its enforcement strategy to transform it into a broadly accepted success.

Given the sharp increase in attacks on ICE agents, it’s reasonable for agents to wear masks and body armour and to move discreetly when detaining suspects. The president’s strong defence of ICE appears justified, provided enforcement efforts truly focus on serious offenders rather than longtime residents who have otherwise complied with the law.

The administration might consider a version of President Bill Clinton’s initiative to fund 100,000 additional police officers—provided they’re deployed to high-crime areas rather than low-risk districts or desk roles. A balanced combination of National Guard support and increased local policing might be effective if Democratic mayors, often resistant, can be persuaded to cooperate. If not, federal authorities may need to persist with guard deployments, but should require local governments to share the financial burden.

Less than a year into his presidency, President Trump is fulfilling his campaign promises and has broad public backing. It would be a political setback if minor adjustments in policy execution prevent his administration from securing unambiguous public support. He should take steps to prevent inflammatory comparisons—such as those likening of his administration’s approach to that of Nazi Germany’s—from gaining traction. Politicians making such remarks should be held accountable not only for the deterioration of major cities but also for perpetuating inflammatory rhetoric.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 20:05

Wednesday: FOMC Announcement

Calculated Risk -

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement. The Fed is expected to cut rates 25bp at this meeting.

• Also at 2:00 PM, FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.

• At 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

Washington, DC Has The Highest Share Of Renters In America, Nearly Double National Average

Zero Hedge -

Washington, DC Has The Highest Share Of Renters In America, Nearly Double National Average

About one in three U.S. households rents, a ratio that has stayed surprisingly steady over the past six decades.

But with mortgage rates soaring from 2.7% in 2020 to almost 7% today - and home prices continuing to climb - the share of renters has edged up.

Today, it takes $121,400 to afford a typical home, or 43% higher than the average salary.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows the share of Americans renting versus owning by state, based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

A Closer Look at Renting vs. Owning in America

As the table below shows, states with the highest share of renters are found in states with high costs of living, led by Washington, D.C. and New York.

Despite residents of Washington, D.C. having the highest average hourly wages nationally— reaching $51.30 in real terms—the number of renters far surpasses that of homeowners.

As a result of limited housing supply, it has one of the most competitive rental markets in the country. High home prices, and an influx of out-of-state residents, notably New York City and Boston, are further putting strain on renters.

Meanwhile, 45.7% of people in New York rent, ranking in second. In the Big Apple, the average monthly rent is $4,100 for a one-bedroom apartment in 2025, rising 22% in the past five years.

California (44.2%), Nevada (39.9%), and North Dakota (38.8%) round out the top five states by share of renters.

In contrast, West Virginia has the smallest share of renters across states, at just 24.5%. Supporting home ownership is its affordability, with the median home sale price standing at $225,506 in Q2 2025, significantly lower than the national median of $410,800.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on rent prices in America by state.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 19:40

Aussie Data Centers Could Swallow 40 Million Litres Of Water Per Day, That's About 80,000 Households

Zero Hedge -

Aussie Data Centers Could Swallow 40 Million Litres Of Water Per Day, That's About 80,000 Households

Authored by Jerry Zhu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Australia’s utility industry warns the country’s current water supply is not enough to accommodate the explosive growth of data centres and artificial intelligence (AI).

A photo of the Global Switch data centre in Ultimo of Sydney, Australia taken on May 9, 2025. Courtesy of Kevin Lee

The Water Services Association of Australia (WSAA), the nation’s peak water body, says data centre developers are seeking about 5 to 40 million litres of water per day to cool down their facilities.

That’s the equivalent of 70,000 to 80,000 households or 16 Olympic-sized swimming pools.

Data centres, which store information for governments to businesses, cycle water through their facilities to cool down servers and prevent overheating.

However, the development of AI, which has much higher computational power, storage, as well as electricity needs, is also driving up the base requirements of data centres.

In fact, the WSAA estimates that by 2030, data centres in Sydney alone are estimated to use 10.5 billion litres a year (1.9 percent of Sydney Water’s supply).

By 2035, this is expected to balloon to 90 billion litres a year, the equivalent of 15 to 20 percent of supply.

Sydney is arguably the tech capital of Australia with 90 data centres currently in the state of New South Wales (NSW), followed by 40 in Victoria. Future data centre developments could be much larger and energy-intensive, the report says.

Adam Lovell, executive director of WSAA, stressed the need for Australia to plan its water use carefully.

“Australia is well positioned to become a global data centre hub, and that needn’t be at the expense of our water resources,” Lovell said.

“The key is to help the sector become smart water users.

“We have a history in Australia of developing innovative solutions to make sure industrial users through to residential consumers have reliable access to water supplies.”

The report contained five recommendations, including implementing efficiency standards, recycling water, more transparency by publishing metric on water and energy use, early collaboration between data centres and water utilities, and creating new frameworks for developments.

Greens MP Airs Concerns About Data Centre Water Needs

Abigail Boyd, Greens MP of the NSW Legislative Council, raised concerns about data centre water use in late November.

“The latest Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal [IPART] determination for Sydney water prices notes that Sydney Water estimates that the water needs of data centres may be up to 250 megalitres per day by 2035 to fuel the explosion of artificial intelligence products,” she said during Question Time in NSW Parliament.

“That would be almost 20 percent of Sydney Water’s total water usage being consumed by data centres ...” she said (pdf).

“What is the minister doing to advocate for a more responsible approach to artificial intelligence and data centre development so that new infrastructure, like water connections, is appropriately prioritised towards housing and is not fuelling the latest tech bubble?”

In response, Rose Jackson, Labor minister of water and housing, said Sydney Water had not prioritised capital investment for data centres and that housing targets were the priority.

“The government is having collaborative conversations with Sydney Water and energy providers because some of the pressures that the member has identified in relation to water also relate to energy and ensuring that New South Wales is open for business and supporting the future economic needs of the tech sector,” Jackson said.

“We want New South Wales to be a place where investment occurs so that we are at the cutting edge of emergent technology, and we can take advantage of it,” she added.

Sydney Water is exploring a number of innovative opportunities to ensure that data centre development can be supported without putting pressure on the prioritised capital delivery for housing,” the minister said, noting that the water needs of data centres could also change as technology improves.

Federal and state ministers are expected to discuss the country’s growing water demands in Brisbane on Dec. 12 amid the government’s newly released artificial intelligence plan.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 19:15

"Godless Demons": Teen Commits Suicide After "Sextortion" As International Crime Ring Targets American Children

Zero Hedge -

"Godless Demons": Teen Commits Suicide After "Sextortion" As International Crime Ring Targets American Children

Federal authorities are investigating the death of a 15-year-old West Virginia boy as part of a broader examination into sextortion networks that have increasingly targeted American teenagers, resulting in what experts describe as a national crisis of online predation, the New York Post reported.

Bryce Tate, 15

Bryce Tate, a student at Nitro High School in Cross Lanes, was discovered dead in his home on November 6 from a self-inflicted gunshot wound. The tragedy unfolded roughly three hours after he began communicating with someone who contacted him via text message around 4:30 p.m.

His father, Adam Tate, has concluded that his son fell victim to a sophisticated extortion operation. Details shared with the Post indicate that the scheme began with photographs that were not artificially generated but rather appeared to show an actual girl who had previously been victimized herself.

Such schemes follow a well-established pattern, where criminals solicit explicit images from their targets, then threaten to share those images with the victim's social circle unless a ransom is paid.

The extortionists demanded $500 from Bryce, according to his father.

"My son had 30 freaking dollars and he's like, 'Sir, I'll give you my last $30.' And these cowards wouldn't take it," Tate told The Post.

The scammers appear to have done their homework, compiling detailed information about the teenager's daily life to create a convincing facade.

"They acted like a local 17-year-old girl. They knew which gym he worked out at, they knew a couple of his best friends and name-dropped them. They knew he played basketball for Nitro High School," Tate explained. "They built his trust to where he believed that this was truly somebody in this area."

Tate also rejects the characterization of his son's death as simply a suicide.

"They say it's suicide, but in my book it is 100% murder," he said. "They're godless demons, in my opinion. Just cowards, awful individuals, worse than criminals."

During the last 20 minutes of his life, Bryce was bombarded with roughly 120 messages. Law enforcement officials explained to his father that this tactic creates "tunnel vision to where you can't set your phone down," trapping victims in a spiral of panic and fear.

Bradford Arick, a public affairs specialist with the FBI, told The Post that "The FBI has seen a huge increase in the number of sextortion cases involving children and teens being threatened and coerced into sending explicit images online."

According to a representative from the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children who spoke with the Post, the organization logged more than 33,000 sextortion reports involving children in 2024 alone. The first half of 2025 has seen comparable numbers.

While the FBI would not discuss the particulars of Bryce's case, citing an active investigation, the messages he received bear the hallmarks of a criminal enterprise known as 764—an international operation with tentacles reaching into Russia, Europe, Africa and the United States.

Earlier this month, the Department of Justice announced indictments against five individuals in the United States connected to Greggy's Cult, a 764 affiliate. Among those charged was an active-duty member of the Navy.

The FBI previously characterized 764 as a "violent online network that seeks to destroy civilized society through the corruption and exploitation of vulnerable populations, which often include minors."

In April, Attorney General Pam Bondi minced no words in describing the organization, calling it "one of the most heinous online child exploitation enterprises we have ever encountered — a network built on terror, abuse and the deliberate targeting of children."

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 18:50

Trump Warns Of 'Severe' Tariffs On Canadian Fertilizer If Needed

Zero Hedge -

Trump Warns Of 'Severe' Tariffs On Canadian Fertilizer If Needed

Authored by Jennifer Cowan via The Epoch Times,

U.S. President Donald Trump says he is considering “very severe” tariffs on fertilizer imports from Canada as the United States readies a $12 billion aid package for farmers grappling with the repercussions of the ongoing trade war.

Trump mentioned the increased levy on Canada while responding to reporters’ questions at a Dec. 8 White House roundtable where he announced the tariff relief fund for U.S. farmers, who have been paying more for agricultural products like seed and fertilizer due to Trump’s global trade policies.

“A lot of it does come in from Canada,” Trump said, referring to fertilizer. “And so we’ll end up putting very severe tariffs on that, if we have to, because that’s the way you want to bolster here.”

Trump said high import prices on Canadian fertilizer would encourage the United States to produce its own.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said her team is developing a strategy to bring fertilizer production back to the United States, while also instructing fertilizer manufacturers and other industrial entities to reduce their prices.

“The president has been very unequivocal in saying we have to figure out why all these input costs are skyrocketing and all of our farmers are struggling,” Rollins told reporters.

Trump said that it doesn’t make sense for the United States to rely on other countries for the products farmers need.

“All of a sudden, we don’t do it anymore [and] they start charging very high prices from other countries, whether it’s Canada or somebody else,” he told farmers at the roundtable event. “And we’re not going to let that happen.”

The Epoch Times contacted the Prime Minister’s Office for comment on Trump’s remarks but did not immediately hear back.

Many farmers in the United States depend on potash fertilizer from Saskatchewan to increase potassium levels in their soils. Saskatchewan is the only Canadian provider of potash, which is a group of minerals and chemicals that contains potassium. Potassium is an essential nutrient for plants and a key component in fertilizers.

Roughly 95 percent of the fertilizer produced in Canada is exported and the United States is the country’s largest market. It accounts for more than half of all total fertilizer exports each year, according to Fertilizer Canada.

The United States imported approximately 12.1 million tonnes of Saskatchewan potash in 2024, according to S&P Global. It also imported roughly 4.9 million tonnes in the first five months of 2025, representing more than 50 percent of Canada’s total potash exports during that timeframe.

The United States also imports Canadian nitrogen-based fertilizers, including ammonia, ammonium sulphate, urea, and urea ammonium nitrate.

More than 99 percent of Canadian urea and urea ammonium nitrate exports are directed toward its southern neighbour, while 69 percent of Canada’s ammonia and 49 percent of its ammonium sulphate are also sent there, according to 2023 figures from a World Bank platform.

Trump implemented a sweeping 25 percent tariff on Canadian goods this spring as well as sectoral tariffs, but reduced the tariff on fertilizer to 10 percent after receiving negative feedback from U.S. industry groups and Republican legislators in agricultural states. That tariff is applicable solely to fertilizer export quantities that surpass the thresholds established by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on free trade.

Canadian and U.S. farmers have said they are facing higher fertilizer bills because of Trump’s tariffs.

Then-Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said in March that Ottawa could use Canadian exports of fertilizer and other products such as energy or minerals as bargaining chips in negotiations with the United States, but said the country’s premiers would need to be on board.

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe had previously spoken out against such a move, saying tariffs applied on either side of the border are “harmful to North America.”

“[We] are not supportive in any way of export tariffs, whether that be electricity coming out of Manitoba, Quebec into the U.S. or whether that be energy or potash products that are coming out of our province or Alberta,” he said at a February news conference.

Saskatchewan potash producer Nutrien recently announced tentative plans to construct a new export facility for global markets in Washington state, instead of British Columbia. The news was criticized by B.C. Premier David Eby who said he believes such a decision would place the fate of Saskatchewan potash “in the hands of Donald Trump.”

Federal Transportation Minister Steve MacKinnon told reporters last month that he was “hoping to persuade the company” to choose a Canadian port over one in the United States.

Farm Aid

The recent emphasis by the Trump administration on agriculture indicates a potential for further trade disruptions. The president said proceeds from tariffs will be allocated to support farmers.

“This relief will provide much-needed certainty to farmers as they get this year’s harvest to market and look ahead to next year’s crops, and it’ll help them continue their efforts to lower food prices for American families,” Trump told reporters during the Dec. 8 event.

Trump also provided aid to farmers during his first presidency amid trade disputes. He disbursed more than $22 billion in 2019 and nearly $46 billion in 2020, although the latter figure also included support related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Rollins said US$11 billion from the new aid package will be allocated to row crop farmers and is expected to be distributed by Feb. 28. She noted that the White House will hold on to the remaining US$1 billion to finalize the funding allocation details for farmers of fruits, vegetables, and other crops.

The money is meant to offer certainty to farmers as they market the current harvest and make plans for next year’s yield, she said.

Soybeans and sorghum were hardest hit by Washington’s trade dispute with Beijing because more than half of those crops are exported each year with the majority going to China.

Trump met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea in October, where the president said they made a deal that China would buy at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025, as well as 25 million metric tons a year in each of the next three years.

China bought more than 2.8 million metric tons of soybeans since Trump announced the agreement at the end of October, but the amount represents only one-fourth of what U.S. officials said the country had committed to purchasing.

Trump signed an executive order on the weekend directing the Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission to look at “anti-competitive behaviour” in food supply chains —including seed, fertilizer and equipment—and consider taking enforcement actions or developing new regulations.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 18:25

Rich People, Poor Morals: Wealthy Are The Most Likely To Rip Off Self-Checkout Machines

Zero Hedge -

Rich People, Poor Morals: Wealthy Are The Most Likely To Rip Off Self-Checkout Machines

Rich people, poorer morals? A new LendingTree report claims the shoppers most likely to rip off the self-checkout machine aren’t the desperate — they’re the well-off, according to the NY Post.

Americans making over $100,000 a year are twice as likely to steal at self-checkout compared to low-income shoppers. A hefty 40% of six-figure earners admitted they’ve deliberately skipped scanning an item, while just 17% of those making under $30,000 confessed to the same.

The Post writes that middle-income households didn’t look much better: 27% of people earning between $50K and $99K say they’ve helped themselves without paying. And men are the biggest culprits overall, with 38% admitting to theft versus only 16% of women.

Even with AI scanners and weight sensors trying to outsmart sticky fingers, self-checkout theft is still rising.

A chunk of shoppers don’t feel bad about it either. Nearly one-third say big retailers make plenty of money, so swiping something “doesn’t hurt.” Another 35% defend the habit by claiming they’re basically unpaid store workers and grabbing an item or two is “compensation.”

Still, most blame inflation rather than guilt-free shoplifting. Forty-seven percent say rising prices are forcing people to cheat at the register — meaning even wealthy shoppers might be feeling the squeeze, just not enough to pay for everything in their cart.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 16:40

Question Everything

Zero Hedge -

Question Everything

Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

The average person in the First World receives far more information than he would if he lived in a Second or Third World country. In many countries of the world, the very idea of twenty-four hour television news coverage would be unthinkable, yet many Westerners feel that, without this constant input, they would be woefully uninformed.

Not surprising, then, that the average First Worlder feels that he understands current events better than those elsewhere in the world. But, as in other things, quality and quantity are not the same.

The average news programme features a commentator who provides “the news,” or at least that portion of events that the network deems worthy to be presented. In addition, it is presented from the political slant of the controllers of the network. But we are reassured that the reporting is “balanced,” in a portion of the programme that features a panel of “experts.”

Customarily, the panel consists of the moderator plus two pundits who share his political slant and a pundit who has an opposing slant. All are paid by the network for their contributions. The moderator will ask a question on a current issue, and an argument will ensue for a few minutes. Generally, no real conclusion is reached—neither side accedes to the other. The moderator then moves on to another question.

So, the network has aired the issues of the day, and we have received a balanced view that may inform our own opinions.

Or have we?

Shortcomings

In actual fact, there are significant shortcomings in this type of presentation:

  1. The scope of coverage is extremely narrow. Only select facets of each issue are discussed.

  2. Generally, the discussion reveals precious little actual insight and, in fact, only the standard opposing liberal and conservative positions are discussed, implying that the viewer must choose one or the other to adopt as his own opinion.

  3. On a programme that is liberally-oriented, the one conservative pundit on the panel is made to look foolish by the three liberal pundits, ensuring that the liberal viewer’s beliefs are reaffirmed. (The reverse is true on a conservative news programme.)

  4. Each issue facet that is addressed is repeated many times in the course of the day, then extended for as many days, weeks, or months as the issue remains current. The “message,” therefore, is repeated virtually as often as an advert for a brand of laundry powder.

So, what is the net effect of such news reportage? Has the viewer become well-informed?

In actual fact, not at all. What he has become is well-indoctrinated.

A liberal will be inclined to regularly watch a liberal news channel, which will result in the continual reaffirmation of his liberal views. A conservative will, in turn, regularly watch a conservative news channel, which will result in the continual reaffirmation of his conservative views.

Many viewers will agree that this is so, yet not recognise that, essentially, they are being programmed to simply absorb information. Along the way, their inclination to actually question and think for themselves is being eroded.

Alternate Possibilities

The proof of this is that those who have been programmed, tend to react with anger when they encounter a Nigel Farage or a Ron Paul, who might well challenge them to consider a third option—an interpretation beyond the narrow conservative and liberal views of events. In truth, on any issue, there exists a wide field of alternate possibilities.

By contrast, it is not uncommon for people outside the First World to have better instincts when encountering a news item. If they do not receive the BBC, Fox News, or CNN, they are likely, when learning of a political event, to think through, on their own, what the event means to them.

As they are not pre-programmed to follow one narrow line of reasoning or another, they are open to a broad range of possibilities. Each individual, based upon his personal experience, is likely to draw a different conclusion and, thorough discourse with others, is likely to continue to update his opinion each time he receives a new viewpoint.

As a result, it is not uncommon for those who are not “plugged-in” to be not only more open-minded, but more imaginative in their considerations, even when they are less educated and less “informed” than those in the First World.

Whilst those who do not receive the regular barrage that is the norm in the First World are no more intelligent than their European or American counterparts, their views are more often the result of personal objective reasoning and common sense and are often more insightful.

Those in First World countries often point with pride at the advanced technology that allows them a greater volume of news than the rest of the world customarily receives.

Further, they are likely to take pride in their belief that the two opposing views that are presented indicate that they live in a “free” country, where dissent is encouraged.

Unfortunately, what is encouraged is one of two views—either the liberal view or the conservative view. Other views are discouraged.

The liberal view espouses that a powerful liberal government is necessary to control the greed of capitalists, taxing and regulating them as much as possible to limit their ability to victimise the poorer classes.

The conservative view espouses that a powerful conservative government is needed to control the liberals, who threaten to create chaos and moral collapse through such efforts as gay rights, legalised abortion, etc.

What these two dogmatic concepts have in common is that a powerful government is needed.

Each group, therefore, seeks the increase in the power of its group of legislators to overpower the opposing group. This ensures that, regardless of whether the present government is dominated by liberals of conservatives, the one certainty will be that the government will be powerful.

When seen in this light, if the television viewer were to click the remote back and forth regularly from the liberal channel to the conservative channel, he would begin to see a strong similarity between the two.

It’s easy for any viewer to question the opposition group, to consider them disingenuous—the bearers of false information. It is far more difficult to question the pundits who are on our own “team,” to ask ourselves if they, also, are disingenuous.

This is especially difficult when it’s three to one—when three commentators share our political view and all say the same thing to the odd-man-out on the panel. In such a situation, the hardest task is to question our own team, who are clearly succeeding at beating down the odd-man-out.

Evolution of Indoctrination

In bygone eras, the kings of old would tell their minions what to believe and the minions would then either accept or reject the information received. They would rely on their own experience and reasoning powers to inform them.

Later, a better method evolved: the use of media to indoctrinate the populace with government-generated propaganda (think: Josef Goebbels or Uncle Joe Stalin).

Today, a far more effective method exists—one that retains the repetition of the latter method but helps to eliminate the open-ended field of alternate points of view. It does so by providing a choice between “View A” and “View B.”

In a democracy, there is always an “A” and a “B.” This illusion of choice is infinitely more effective in helping the populace to believe that they have been able to choose their leaders and their points of view.

In the modern method, when voting, regardless of what choice the individual makes, he is voting for an all-powerful government. (Whether it calls itself a conservative one or a liberal one is incidental.)

Likewise, through the modern media, when the viewer absorbs what is presented as discourse, regardless of whether he chooses View A or View B, he is endorsing an all-powerful government.

Two Solutions

One solution to avoid being brainwashed by the dogmatic messaging of the media is to simply avoid watching the news. But this is difficult to do, as our associates and neighbours are watching it every day and will want to discuss with us what they have been taught.

The other choice is to question everything.

To consider that the event that is being discussed may not only be being falsely reported, but that the message being provided by the pundits may be consciously planned for our consumption.

This is difficult to do at first but can eventually become habit. If so, the likelihood of being led down the garden path by the powers-that-be may be greatly diminished. In truth, on any issue, there exists a wide field of alternate possibilities.

Developing your own view may, in the coming years, be vital to your well-being.

*  *  *

In times when the mainstream narrative grows louder, the rarest and most valuable act is to think independently. True understanding comes not from passively absorbing information, but from questioning every assumption handed to us. If you’re ready to explore what’s really unfolding behind the headlines—and how to protect yourself from the consequences of mass deception—see Doug Casey’s urgent new special dispatch: “The US and the World are Heading for a Serious Crisis.” Click here to see it now. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 16:20

Adam Schiff Laments Trump Wasn't Jailed Sooner As DOJ Turns On Him

Zero Hedge -

Adam Schiff Laments Trump Wasn't Jailed Sooner As DOJ Turns On Him

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., lamented that the Biden administration did not move more quickly to incarcerate President Donald Trump, suggesting that even more aggressive action could have thwarted his 2024 electoral prospects. 

Schiff, who himself is facing a federal investigation into allegations of mortgage fraud, claimed in an interview with the New Yorker Radio Hour that had former Attorney General Merrick Garland acted sooner, “we might be in a very different place today.” 

Schiff’s remarks came after podcast host David Remnick asked, “Do you feel that Merrick Garland moved too slowly, too cautiously?” 

The senator replied, “I absolutely do. Yeah.” 

Remnick then asked why Garland acted “so slowly,” adding, “What about his character or tactics or strategy led him to behave that way?” 

Schiff then misleadingly claimed that Garland had been brought in to correct what Schiff viewed as partisanship in the first Trump administration. 

These comments appear at odds with newly declassified documents that showed that the Biden-led DOJ and FBI undertook sweeping investigations targeting Trump and his allies after he left office in 2021. 

The New York Times even reported that former President Joe Biden actively supported Garland taking action against Trump. 

The Biden-led probe triggered 197 subpoenas against 430 Republican organizations and individuals. The subpoenas included phone records of at least 11 Republican lawmakers. 

These records were later transferred to Special Counsel Jack Smith, whom Garland appointed to pursue the Trump investigation under the guise of independence. 

Despite this, Schiff framed Garland’s actions as part of an attempt to restore credibility. 

“The Justice Department in the first Trump was abused and made partisan, and he wished to restore the Department’s reputation for independence,” Schiff claimed.

 “Now, what they did in the first Trump Justice Department is peanuts compared to today.” 

Schiff continued, “But nevertheless, Merrick Garland wanted to restore the reputation of the Department for strict non-partisanship. And that made him very reluctant to pursue an investigation of the president, too reluctant.” 

In conclusion, Schiff claimed that Garland’s reluctance allowed the Supreme Court time to issue a decision on presidential immunity. 

“Ultimately that gave the Supreme Court the time it needed to drag things out further and make the case against Trump go away completely when it could have been brought to fruition. And we might be in a very different place today,” he stated. 

Watch the remarks below:

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 15:20

Goldman Reminds Clients Where Travel & Leisure Cracked First Ahead Of 2008 Crisis

Zero Hedge -

Goldman Reminds Clients Where Travel & Leisure Cracked First Ahead Of 2008 Crisis

Goldman analysts led by Lizzie Dove examined how different segments within travel and leisure reacted to, and ultimately recovered from, the 2008-09 recession. Her analysis offers a valuable framework for identifying where consumer stress tends to appear first inside the travel space and whether today's warning signs in a K-shaped, bifurcated consumer landscape warrant closer scrutiny.

Buried in the middle of Dove's note on the cruise industry is an infographic showing that the downturn in the cruise industry tends to be late-cycle, whereas pullbacks in gambling, airlines, and hotels typically materialize much earlier - and right before the cycle begins to turn down.

Dove pointed back to the GFC crisis, where early in the downturn Vegas and airlines cracked first:

  • Vegas gambling revenue starts falling as early as Feb–Mar 2008

  • Airlines (enplanements) show declines by mid-2008

Then hotel demand dried up in mid-cycle:

  • US RevPAR drops mid- to late-2008

Followed by the late-cycle downturn in the cruise industry:

  • Cruise net yields don't hit peak decline until mid-2009

  • They don't return to growth until mid-2010

So there was a full 18 to 24 months lag versus the late-cycle cruise downturn and the early-cycle pullback in Vegas and airlines.

Why highlight this consumer behavior right now?

Because the current K-shaped recovery and bifurcated spending environment are flashing early warning signs. Las Vegas trends are already pointing lower, yet airlines are still holding up, and baby boomers continue booking Caribbean cruise-line trips.

Track these consumer trends through early 2026 to see whether weakness spreads more broadly across the travel industry. If airline demand begins to fall, it will provide a much clearer indication that economic softness is widening. And if that's the case, Powell better be open to more rate cuts.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already communicated that tailwinds for working-class consumers will begin to materialize sometime in the first quarter.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 15:00

Clinton-Appointed Federal Judge Tosses Trump's Order Halting Wind Energy Projects

Zero Hedge -

Clinton-Appointed Federal Judge Tosses Trump's Order Halting Wind Energy Projects

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge on Dec. 8 vacated President Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 executive order that halted federal permitting and leasing for wind energy projects, saying it violated U.S. law.

U.S. District Judge Patti Saris of the District of Massachusetts ruled in favor of a coalition of state attorneys general from 17 states and the District of Columbia, which argued that federal efforts to halt authorization for wind energy projects violated the Administrative Procedure Act because the agencies failed to provide reasoned explanations for their actions.

Trump’s order directs federal agencies to halt approvals and leasing for all new offshore wind power projects pending a comprehensive review.

In a 47-page ruling, Saris stated that the order’s indefinite suspension of wind energy project authorizations violates a statutory requirement that agencies proceed to conclude matters “within a reasonable time.”

“No permits have [been] issued since the wind order was promulgated, and the agency defendants acknowledge that they will not issue any permits at least until they complete the comprehensive assessment, for which there is no timeline,” the judge stated. “That action is contrary to law.”

The judge also noted that federal agencies failed to provide “a reasoned explanation” for halting wind project authorizations, even as they were carrying out the president’s directive.

“Given that the wind order constitutes a change of course from decades of agencies’ issuing (or denying) permits related to wind energy projects, the agency defendants were required, at minimum, to ‘provide a reasoned explanation for the change’ and to ‘display awareness that (they were) changing position.’ They failed to do so,” Saris stated.

Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell, part of the coalition in the lawsuit, hailed the ruling as a “critical victory” for the states.

“Massachusetts has invested hundreds of millions of dollars into offshore wind, and today, we successfully protected those important investments from the Trump Administration’s unlawful order,” Campbell said in a statement.

New York Attorney General Letitia James welcomed the ruling and said there is a need to develop more energy sources, including wind energy, amid rising costs.

“I am grateful the court stepped in to block the administration’s reckless and unlawful crusade against clean energy,” she added.

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers defended Trump’s directive, saying that offshore wind projects were given “unfair, preferential treatment” under the Biden administration while other energy sources faced burdensome regulations.

“President Trump has ended Joe Biden’s war on American energy and unleashed America’s energy dominance to protect our economic and national security,” Rogers said in a statement.

Trump has pushed to increase U.S. use of fuel and coal energy sources in a move to reduce reliance on foreign supply. On July 7, Trump signed an executive order to end federal subsidies for wind and solar energy projects, citing their unreliability and dependence on foreign-controlled supply chains.

The order states that such renewable energy sources are expensive, compromise the nation’s electric grid, and threaten national security. It instructs the Interior Department to review and eliminate regulations that give preferential treatment to wind and solar projects.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 14:40

Trump Threatens Tariff Increase On Mexico Over Rio Grande Water Dispute

Zero Hedge -

Trump Threatens Tariff Increase On Mexico Over Rio Grande Water Dispute

President Donald Trump weighed in on a decades-old border water dispute on Monday, saying he would impose a 5 percent tariff hike on Mexican imports if the country fails to swiftly deliver the water it owes from the Rio Grande.

The ultimatum is designed to help struggling U.S. farmers, especially in Texas, amid alleged treaty violations over the past five years.

In a post on social media, Trump underscored an alleged 800,000 acre-feet debt from the recently ended cycle, demanding the release of 200,000 acre-feet before Dec. 31 and additional volumes shortly after.

The president highlighted the impact on Texas agriculture, where insufficient water undermines crop yields and livestock sustainability.

“As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water,” Trump said on Truth Social on Monday.

“That is why I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn’t released, IMMEDIATELY.”

As Kimberley Hayek reports for The Epoch Times, Mexico has in the past cited significant drought conditions curtailing its capacity.

The 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty regulates shared resources from the Rio Grande, Colorado, and Tijuana rivers.

For the Rio Grande segment south of Fort Quitman, Texas, the agreement states that the United States would receive one-third of flows from six Mexican tributaries—Conchos, San Diego, San Rodrigo, Escondido, Salado, and Las Vacas Arroyo—with a guaranteed minimum average of 350,000 acre-feet per year, or 1.75 million over each five-year cycle. The agreement allotted Mexico two-thirds of those flows, as well as allocations from U.S. tributaries, including the Pecos and Devils rivers.

In April, Trump criticized Mexico, threatening tariffs or sanctions if the country failed to adhere to the terms of the treaty.

“Mexico has been stealing the water from Texas farmers,” he posted at the time, pledging to “keep escalating consequences, including tariffs and, maybe even sanctions, until Mexico honors the Treaty, and gives Texas the water they are owed!”

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum highlighted the ongoing drought but vowed to help resolve the issue. Mexico said it would draw from its reserves and increase flows from the six tributaries through October, as announced by U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. IBWC data, however, showed deliveries came in at approximately 730,000 acre-feet by mid-2025, 42 percent short of the 1.75 million obligation.

A history of lenient enforcement, hydrological changes, and rapid population increase in Mexico has been blamed for the current conditions.

Evan Ellis, a Latin American studies professor at the U.S. Army War College, said the current situation can be attributed to “years of looking the other way” by the United States.

The treaty allows for deferrals only during “extraordinary drought,” which is left undefined but requires repayment in the following cycle.

In March, the United States rejected Mexico’s request for Colorado River water diversions to Tijuana, noting Rio Grande shortfalls. It is the first time the country has denied such a request under the treaty.

The Texas agricultural sector depends on consistent water supplies, and the allocation shortfalls have led members of Congress to introduce bills proposing fund withholdings until remedies are secured.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 14:20

Lawler: More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*)

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*)

A brief excerpt:
From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Executive Summary: Policymakers and financial analysts looking for “models” as a guide for assessing the neutral interest rate are faced with a dilemma: various models produce significantly different results, and it is far from clear which if any model is the “most” accurate. While it is perhaps interesting to note that the average R* estimate from various models available within the Federal Reserve System is currently very close to “market-based” estimates based on TIPS forward rates adjusted for term prema estimates, that may simply be a coincidence.

However, if one takes the approach that the “best guess” estimate of R* is found by looking at the average of various models and the “market’s” assessment of R*, one would come to the conclusion that the current “best guess” estimate of the neutral real rate of interest is very close to 1.5%,

If that is the case, and if, as expected, the FOMC decides to cut its federal funds rate target by 25 bp tomorrow, then the resulting level of the federal funds rate will be very close to the neutral nominal policy rate.
There is much more in the article.

Harvard Hires Graduate Charged With Assaulting Israeli Classmate As Teaching Fellow

Zero Hedge -

Harvard Hires Graduate Charged With Assaulting Israeli Classmate As Teaching Fellow

Authored by Gabrielle Temaat via The College Fix,

Harvard University recently hired a graduate of its Divinity School who was criminally charged with assaulting an Israeli classmate during an anti-Israel protest. 

Elom Tettey-Tamaklo; Across the Divide/Youtube

Elom Tettey-Tamaklo is now working as a teaching fellow at the school, earning a stipend of up to $11,000, according to The Washington Free Beacon

Tettey-Tamaklo’s LinkedIn page states that he advises “faculty on curriculum design” and offers consultation “on complex subject matter by translating expertise in migration and refugee studies.”

In October 2023,video surfaced showing Tettey-Tamaklo confronting a first-year Israeli business student who can be heard saying “don’t grab me” and “don’t touch my neck.” The student said Tettey-Tamaklo pushed and shoved him. 

In 2024, Tettey-Tamaklo was charged with misdemeanor assault and battery. Then, about a year later, a judge ordered him to complete anger management classes and 80 hours of community service. 

The university did not punish him formally, but Tettey-Tamaklo lost his freshman proctor role because students reported feeling uncomfortable. Still, he was later awarded a $65,000 Harvard Law Review fellowship, according to National Review.

While the case moved through the courts, the Trump administration urged the school to expel him, but it refused, the Free Beacon reported. 

Now he’s on Harvard’s payroll. 

The Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office stated that Harvard refused to cooperate with its investigation, stalled the criminal case, and blocked prosecutors from identifying other individuals involved in the assault.

The school’s conduct in handling the case led the assaulted Israeli student, Yoav Segev, to sue the school in July. 

Segev alleged that Harvard violated his Title VI rights by failing to meaningfully discipline Tettey-Tamaklo and another student involved in the incident, according to The Harvard Crimson

However, a federal judge dismissed the lawsuit last week.

“While the court does not condone an assault on a fellow student by campus protestors, nothing in the Amended Complaint plausibly supports the notion that his assailants’ conduct was motivated by race-based antisemitism,” U.S. District Judge Richard Stearns wrote. 

Earlier this year, the Trump administration withheld federal grant funding from Harvard, citing its failure to address rampant antisemitism on campus, The College Fix previously reported. 

In September, however, a U.S. district judge ruled that the Trump administration violated the school’s First Amendment rights by freezing research funding, asserting the government’s actions were aimed at promoting a “governmental orthodoxy” rather than genuinely combating antisemitism.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 14:00

Indoctrination Starts Early: New Book Tells 5-Year-Olds Abortion Is A 'Superpower'

Zero Hedge -

Indoctrination Starts Early: New Book Tells 5-Year-Olds Abortion Is A 'Superpower'

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In a brazen push to normalise the unthinkable, radical abortion activists are now targeting America’s youngest minds with a colorful children’s book that glorifies killing the unborn as some kind of heroic “superpower.”

The extreme left are coming for the kids, framing abortion as destiny-shaping magic in a bid to “rewrite cultural scripts” and stomp out any resistance to their anti-life ideology.

The book, titled Abortion Is Everything, is being peddled by the pro-abortion group Shout Your Abortion (SYA), set to ship in January 2026. Aimed squarely at children aged five to eight, it uses vibrant, water-color style illustrations to hook young imaginations—while slipping in messages that abortion is not just acceptable, but empowering.

According to the group’s own description, the book tells children “about what abortion is, how it might feel, and why people have abortions.”

A blurb of the book proclaims that “With accessible, inclusive language, Abortion Is Everything frames abortion as the actualization of a uniquely human superpower: our capacity to imagine the future and make choices that lead us towards the life we envision.”

It continues, “Abortion is a tool that allows human beings to shape our destinies, and which has shaped the entire world around us.”

Excerpts reveal the indoctrination tactics, with text stating: “Human beings are different from plants and non-human animals, because we have the ability to IMAGINE our lives many seasons from now… and make CHOICES.” Bright colors and playful drawings accompany this, masking the grim reality of what abortion truly entails.

SYA claims “Parents, caregivers, and educators who work with children have long been searching for a tool to talk with kids about abortion, especially given the volume of political noise currently surrounding the issue.” They position the book as a way to “introduce the concept of abortion in a way that empowers parents and kids to begin rewriting our cultural scripts about abortion at the most foundational level.”

Authored by ‘activist’ Amelia Bonow and artist-educator Rachel Kessler, with illustrations by Emily Nokes, the hardcover is being offered signed for donations of $100 or more to SYA’s year-end campaign. The group, launched in 2016, openly seeks to “normalize abortion and eradicat[e] stigma.”

Their mission is described as building “a collective that is committed to aiding and abetting abortion—in the form of elevating resources, funding abortions, sharing information about pills, and saving independent clinics.”

Conservative lawyer and Trump ally Jenna Ellis has slammed the book as “downright evil,” urging “Why even introduce such a violent, adult topic to kids who still sleep with stuffed animals and ask for night lights? Because reshaping morality always starts with shaping the minds of the youngest.”

Ellis tore into SYA’s framing, noting: “SYA claims abortion is just one of three ‘normal’ pregnancy outcomes, like birth and miscarriage. But a miscarriage is a tragedy no mother chooses; abortion is the intentional ending of a child’s life.”

This highlights the hypocrisy of equating a natural loss with deliberate destruction, a tactic straight out of the leftist playbook to desensitize society.

This push comes amid global crackdowns on pro-life expression. The US State Department recently labeled NHS abortions in the UK as human rights violations, criticizing organizations for being “conspicuously silent” on arrests near clinics. Examples abound: An anti-abortion campaigner arrested at a peaceful protest in Cambridge on November 1, and 75-year-old grandmother Rose Docherty hauled into a police van in Glasgow for holding a sign outside a hospital.

US Vice President JD Vance called out these “buffer zone” laws, warning that free speech is “in retreat” in Europe. He spotlighted the conviction of physiotherapist Adam Smith-Connor for praying outside an abortion center in Bournemouth, stating: “I wish I could say that this was a fluke, a one-off, crazy example of a badly written law being enacted against a single person. But no. This last October, [then] just a few months ago, the Scottish Government began distributing letters to citizens whose houses lay within so-called safe access zones, warning them that even private prayer within their own homes may amount to breaking the law.”

By targeting five-year-olds, SYA and their ilk aim to breed a generation numb to life’s sanctity, paving the way for more control. This isn’t education—it’s straight-up leftist brainwashing aimed at eroding family values and life-affirming principles from the cradle.

 

The more this crowd pushes, the more galvanised parents are to reject the radical left’s assault on innocence. True superpowers lie in protecting life, not ending it.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 13:20

Solid 10Y Auction Sees Jump In Foreign Demand, Prices On The Screws

Zero Hedge -

Solid 10Y Auction Sees Jump In Foreign Demand, Prices On The Screws

After a solid, but tailing, 3Y auction to start the FOMC week yesterday had little impact on the yield curve, moments ago the Treasury sold $39BN in 10Y paper in another solid auction, which however once again had no impact on the secondary market.  

The auction priced at a high yield of 4.175%, which was up from 4.068% in November and the highest since August. The high yield also priced on the screws with the When Issued which was also at 4.175%. It followed two tailing auctions but for the most part demand has been solid historically with most auction in the past year stopping through.

The bid to cover was solid up to 2.550 from 2.433 and the highest since September; it was also above the recent average 2.51.

Internals were also solid: Foreign buyers took down 70.2%, the highest since September, and above the six auction average of 69.5. And with Directs awarded 20.96%, down modestly from 22.55% in November but in line with the 20.52% recent average, Dealers were left holding 8.8%, the lowest since September.

Overall, this was a good auction with solid demand metrics. Yet in line of the continued hawkish retracement observed across the globe which has lifted yields sharply in recent days, the auction did little to boost rates sentiment and 10Y yields were unchanged in the second market trading around 4.17%, near the highest in three months.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/09/2025 - 13:17

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