DOJ Charges Afghan National Over Online Threats To Build Bomb, Kill Americans

Authored by Arjun Singh via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice has indicted an Afghan national residing in Fort Worth, Texas, for allegedly making online threats to construct an explosive and kill U.S. citizens using it.

Mohammad Dawood Alokozay, 30, was arrested by the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force and the Texas Department of Public Safety on Nov. 30. A statement from the Department of Justice indicated that he was charged with “transmitting a threatening communication in interstate commerce,” which violates 18 U.S. Code, Section 875(c), for making threats on social media platforms, specifically TikTok, Facebook, and X.

“We have zero tolerance for violence and threats of violence to kill American citizens and others like those allegedly made by this individual,” said Ryan Raybould, the U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Texas, whose office is prosecuting the case.

Alokozay on Nov. 23, while speaking in the Dari language, allegedly told two other men during a video stream on social media that he would build a bomb in his vehicle. He also allegedly described in detail bomb making techniques used by the Taliban in Afghanistan, who he described as “dear” to him. During his remarks, Alokozay allegedly stated that he intended to conduct a suicide attack on Americans, and that he was “not afraid of deportation or getting killed.”

The Epoch Times was unable to obtain a copy of Alokozay’s indictment, which is currently under seal in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas. If convicted, Alokozay faces a maximum of five years in prison for the crime.

Alokozay’s immigration status in the United States, and whether the federal government will place him in removal proceedings, has not been publicly disclosed. Currently, Afghanistan is ruled by the Taliban, a designated foreign terrorist organization, to which the United States has not conducted any publicized removal operations.

Normally, in cases where the country of origin of a deportee may present a risk to the deportee’s life, that person may apply for “withholding of removal” under Section 241(b)(3) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, and protections under the Convention Against Torture. These statuses, if granted by an immigration judge, prevent a person from being removed to their home country, though they may be removed to a willing third country.

Since Nov. 26, when one National Guard service member was shot and killed and another critically wounded in Washington, allegedly by Afghan national Rahmanullah Lakanwal, the U.S. government has increased scrutiny of existing Afghan nationals and other citizens of “high-risk” nations who reside within the country.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 12:05

James Boasberg Snubs Senate Hearing On 'Rogue Judges'

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Two of the federal judges facing impeachment threats refused to attend a Wednesday Senate Judiciary subcommittee hearing on “rogue judges.” 

James Boasberg and Deborah Boardman, district judges in Washington and Maryland, respectively, told the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Courts that they would not appear over concerns about the separation of powers and judicial ethics. 

Their refusal was delivered through a Nov. 12 letter sent by U.S. Judge Robert Conrad, the director of the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, to Sen. Ted Cruz, who chairs the subcommittee. 

Conrad claimed that allowing the judges to testify could violate ethics rules and “encroach upon the separation of powers,” according to the Daily Caller. 

He cited judicial rule Canon 3A(6), which forbids judges from testifying about matters they have decided or that may be pending before them. 

“The commentary to this provision explains that the ‘admonition against public comment about the merits of a pending or impending matter continues until the appellate process is complete,’” Conrad added. 

Director of the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts Judge Robert Conrad cited part of the code of conduct stating a judge "should not make public comment on the merits of a matter pending or impending in any court."

— Katelynn Richardson (@katesrichardson) December 2, 2025

Cruz scheduled the hearing to examine possible impeachment proceedings against federal judges accused of overstepping their authority.

Boasberg is one of those judges, Republicans argue. He is facing impeachment threats from Rep. Brandon Gill, R-Texas,  

Gill filed the articles of impeachment accusing Boasberg of abusing his “judicial authority” for approving Biden-era search warrants targeting Republican lawmakers and other conservative organizations part of the Jan. 6 investigation. 

“Judge Boasberg was an accomplice in the egregious Arctic Frost scandal where he equipped the Biden DOJ to spy on Republican senators,” Gill wrote in a statement. 

“His lack of integrity makes him clearly unfit for the gavel.” 

Boardman is also facing impeachment efforts, this time from Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, over her lenient eight-year sentence for the convicted would-be assassin of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.  

Boardman cited the attacker’s declared transgender identity to justify sparing him from a harsher penalty. 

“Boardman unequivocally based this weak sentence on the attempted assassin’s ‘gender identity,’ as the attempted assassin expressed that he views himself as a woman,” Roy wrote in a separate statement. “Instead of doing what the Judiciary calls for and sentencing this man to the base 30-year sentence recommended by the Department of Justice, Judge Boardman purposefully allowed this man off easy.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 11:25

WTI Holds Gains As Cushing 'Tank Bottoms' Loom; US Crude Production At Record High

Oil prices are higher this morning after API's report showed crude inventories fell last week, while negotiations to end Russia's war on Ukraine failed to reach an agreement.

Prices have stuck in a narrow range in recent weeks as geopolitical concerns have countered rising supply as OPEC+ returned 2.6-million barrels of production cuts to market amid increasing production outside of the cartel.

But, a lack of progress in U.S.-led negotiations to reach a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia and the Trump Administration's military build up off Venezuela continue to command a risk premium for the commodity.

"Traders weighed prospects for an end to the war in Ukraine while watching for Trump's next moves on Venezuela. Ahead of today's EIA report, the API said US crude stockpiles rose by 2.5 million barrels last week. Overall, Brent and WTI remain confined to tight ranges as ample global supply continues to offset geopolitical risk," Saxo Bank noted.

Will the official data confirm API's draw?

API

• Crude -2.48mm

• Cushing -89k

• Gasoline +3.1mm

• Distillates +2.88mm

DOE

• Crude +574k

• Cushing -457k

• Gasoline +4.518mm - biggest build since May

• Distillates +2.059mm

The official report was delayed but once it hit, it showed a small crude build (as opposed to API's reported draw). Products saw big builds (Gasoline largest weekly add since May) and Cushing stocks fell for the 4th straight week...

Source: Bloomberg

Cushing's ongoing draws leave stocks near 'tank bottoms' once again...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production hovers near record highs despite the rapid decline in rig counts...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is holding gains after the delayed data...

Source: Bloomberg

Geopolitical tensions are keeping the market jittery and adding a risk premium to prices, partly countering concerns about a surplus. That includes US rhetoric against Venezuela, with President Donald Trump suggesting the Pentagon will soon start targeting drug cartels with strikes on land.

Senate hawks calling for a complete Venezuelan overthrow further fuel oil’s upside risk. Eschewing the term “regime change”, Rick Scott (R–Fla.) told ZeroHedge that he’d like to Venezuelan President Maduro in handcuffs.

”I’d like [Maduro] to be arrested for selling drugs into this country,” Scott said today. “That’s not ‘regime change’. He is not the president of Venezuela… there was an election. He lost the election.”

On the Russian front, Goldman sees little change in markets following the peace talks.

“The Brent crude price remained roughly unchanged in the low $60s over the last week as Russia-Ukraine peace talks continue,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Yulia Grigsby said.

“Oil markets and prediction markets do not appear to price a large probability of a near-term peace agreement and removal of the sanctions on Russia oil.”

Grigsby also noted that overall levels of Russian oil exports have remained robust, even after US penalties on Lukoil and Rosneft, as sales rapidly pivoted to non-sanctioned producers.

On the bright side, the broadly weaker trend on crude oil prices has dragged gas (pump) prices down to their lowest since May 2021...

Source: Bloomberg

While it's not exactly 'drill, baby, drill', it's certainly what Trump wanted (the question is, will the lower price push shale producers to cut production... and round and round we go).

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 11:18

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Soft Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

Another monthly update on rents.

Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure.

More recently, immigration policy has become a negative for rentals.

Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -1.1% Year-over-year ...

The national median rent fell 1.0% in November, and now stands at $1,367. This was the fourth consecutive month-over-month decline, as we’re now in the midst of the rental market’s off-season. It’s likely that we will close out the year with an additional modest rent decline in December.

Realtor.com: 27th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents

October 2025 marks the 27th straight month of year-over-year rent decline for 0-2 bedroom properties since trend data began in 2020. Asking rents dipped by $29, or -1.7%, year over year.

There is much more in the article.

Trump Confirms Biden's Autopen Documents, Orders, & Pardons Are Void

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he has nullified all documents, proclamations, executive orders, memorandums, and contracts signed by autopen during President Joe Biden’s term.

“Any and all Documents, Proclamations, Executive Orders, Memorandums, or Contracts, signed by Order of the now infamous and unauthorized ‘AUTOPEN,’ within the Administration of Joseph R. Biden Jr., are hereby null, void, and of no further force or effect,” Trump wrote in a social media post.

“Anyone receiving ‘Pardons,’ ‘Commutations,’ or any other Legal Document so signed, please be advised that said Document has been fully and completely terminated, and is of no Legal effect. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

The declaration follows Trump’s Nov. 28 announcement that he was revoking all executive orders signed by autopen during the Biden administration.

“The Autopen is not allowed to be used if approval is not specifically given by the President of the United States,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Trump alleged the documents were signed illegally.

“The Radical Left Lunatics circling Biden around the beautiful Resolute Desk in the Oval Office took the Presidency away from him,” Trump posted. “Joe Biden was not involved in the Autopen process and, if he says he was, he will be brought up on charges of perjury.”

The autopen, which uses a real pen and ink to mechanically replicate a president’s signature, can be used to sign official documents, but the president must direct the signing of each document or bill, according to the Office of Legal Counsel.

According to some legal scholars, U.S. presidents may revoke previously issued executive orders. However, revoking pardons may be unconstitutional and could face roadblocks, experts told the Epoch Times.

The U.S. House Committee on Oversight, led by Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) published a report in October detailing an investigation into the Biden administration’s use of autopen signatures.

The federal probe found senior White House officials “abused the autopen and a lax chain-of-command policy to effect executive actions” and failed to provide documentation to prove the documents were authorized.

The committee stated it found evidence that Biden’s White House staff concealed his diminishing mental and physical condition intentionally.

“The Committee has found that there was, in fact, a cover-up of the president’s cognitive decline and that there is no record demonstrating President Biden himself made all of the executive decisions that were attributed to him,” the committee wrote in the report. “The authority to grant pardons is not provided to the president’s inner circle.”

Several senior advisors and staff refused to provide testimony during the investigation for fear of incriminating themselves.

A photo of former President Biden's autopen signature (C) on the new White House Presidential Wall of Fame on Sept. 26, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

In a Truth Social post, Trump claimed 92 percent of documents signed during Biden’s presidency were signed by autopen.

During his presidency, Biden issued 4,245 acts of clemency—more than any other president—and 162 executive orders.

Biden’s acts of clemency consisted of 80 pardons and 4,165 commutations. While the commutation total topped all other presidents since McKinley, who left office in 1901, the 80 pardons were topped by several other presidents including Trump in his first term (144), President Barack Obama (212), and President George W. Bush (189).

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 10:15

'Sustained Resilience': US Services Surveys Mixed In November

Following the disappointment on the Manufacturing PMI side (both S&P Global and ISM seeing their surveys decline in November), US Services surveys were more mixed in the face of 'strong' hard data (that has been largely absent due to the shutdown).

• S&P Global US Services PMI dropped from 54.8 to 54.1 in November (lowest since June and notably worse than the flash print of 55.0)

• ISM US Services PMI rose from 52.4 to 52.6, solidly better than the 52.0 expected.

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood was also mixed (completely opposite) news with ISM seeing Prices Paid dropping bigly (S&P Global seeing it rise), ISM seeing new orders decline (S&P Global seeing improvement) and ISM seeing employment still contracting (S&P Global sees 'solid increase' in employment)...

The S&P Global US Composite PMI posted 54.2 in November. That was little changed overall on October’s 54.6 and consistent with trend growth of the US private sector economy.

Similar rates of expansion were recorded across the manufacturing and service sectors. Latest data showed the strongest growth in new work for three months, which helped support a solid increase in employment. Meanwhile, input price inflation accelerated to a four-month high whilst output charges also rose at a stronger pace.

“The US service sector has reported another strong expansion in November, with demand for services rising at the fastest rate seen so far this year," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"Together with a robust increase in output reported by the manufacturing sector, the survey indicates that the economy is so far expanding at a 2.5% annualized GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter."

Supportive financial conditions, including lower interest rates and the equity market gains seen this year, are helping drive the sustained resilience of the economy, with Williamson noting a further surge in financial services activity reported in November.

Tariff fears remain top of mind...

“Consumer and business services are also continuing to expand, but report pressure on customer demand from affordability issues in particular. Worryingly, prices charged for services rose at an increased rate in November as firms sought to pass on higher costs, in turn often linked to tariffs.

“The concern is that rising prices could deter further rate cuts, in turn dampening the financial services expansion which has been doing much of the heavy lifting in terms of the sustained economic expansion in recent months.

But there is some optimism...

“More encouragingly, November saw an upturn in business expectations of growth over the year ahead compared to October, though this in part merely reflected some relief at the ending of the government shutdown, and some of this improved sentiment appears to have already faded towards the end of November.”

Overall, it's choose your own adventure...

...with something for both the doves (weakening survey headline data) and the hawks (economy still expanding and tariff-driven inflation fears high).

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 10:07

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.6%, up from 52.4% the previous month. The employment index increased to 48.9%, up from 48.2%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 52.6% November 2025 ISM® Services PMI® Report

Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in November, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered at 52.6 percent and is in expansion territory for the ninth time in 2025.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In November, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 52.6 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the October figure of 52.4 percent. The Business Activity Index continued in expansion territory in November, registering 54.5 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the reading of 54.3 percent recorded in October. The New Orders Index also remained in expansion in November, with a reading of 52.9 percent, 3.3 percentage points below October’s figure of 56.2 percent but 0.9 percentage point above its 12-month average of 51.7 percent. The Employment Index contracted for the sixth month in a row with a reading of 48.9 percent, a 0.7-percentage point improvement from the 48.2 percent recorded in October — the fourth consecutive monthly increase since a reading of 46.4 percent in July.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 54.1 percent, 3.3 percentage points higher than the 50.8 percent recorded in October and 2.2 percentage points above its 12-month average of 51.9 percent. This is the 12th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 65.4 percent in November, its lowest reading since hitting 65.1 percent in April 2025. The November figure was a 4.6-percentage point drop from October’s reading of 70 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for 12 straight months.
emphasis added

Employment was in contraction for the 6th consecutive month, and prices paid remained high.

Maduro Could Be Exiled To Qatar As Trump Warns Land Strikes On Venezuela Coming "Very Soon"

President Trump reportedly issued Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro a deadline of last Friday to of his own volition step down as president and accomplish a peaceful transition of power, or else face possible direct military action.

The New York Post is freshly reporting that the White House has offered that Maduro could be exiled to Qatar, where he would live out his days in luxury in one of the world's wealthiest countries.

"A senior Trump administration source said Secretary of State Marco Rubio has floated allowing Maduro, 63, to relocate to Qatar as the gas-rich emirate helps mediate the conflict," NY Post writes Wednesday. "Three current and two former administration officials described the scenario as plausible."

Qatar, image via Remote Lands

A source close to the administration described that "Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE love to do stuff like this. It helps build chits with the US." The person further said, "All three compete against each other — in the region and for the ultimate affection of the US."

So far Maduro has resisted Trump's call to immediately step down, and the last Friday deadline came and went. If it were to suddenly happen - and by looks of it Maduro doesn't seem prepared to go anywhere - this scenario would quickly lead to lower oil prices as Washington's crude embargo would be dropped and US firms move to pump oil out of the Latin American country, which has the world's largest proven oil reserves.

As for the supposed exile to Qatar plan, there's been no immediately forthcoming confirmation from the White House that this is accurate, but Maduro would have to go somewhere after all.

The large military presence in the southern Caribbean has persisted for months at this point, and the clock is ticking, especially given President Trump's Tuesday remarks of land attacks possibly beginning "very soon". He said as follows:

President Trump said Tuesday his administration could attack accused drug traffickers who traverse Latin America by land "very soon," which would mark an escalation in the U.S. military's campaign of lethal strikes on alleged drug boats. 

"We're going to start doing those strikes on land, too," Mr. Trump told reporters during a Cabinet meeting when asked about the administration's strikes at sea. "You know, the land is much easier ... And we know the routes they take. We know everything about them. We know where they live. We know where the bad ones live. And we're going to start that very soon, too."

It's unknown whether such strikes would just be limited to known cartel and trafficking locations and routes, or whether government buildings or military bases could be hit.

What’s quite surprising for me is the silence of Brazil, Qatar, and Turkey, the countries said to have brokered the Trump–Maduro call. They usually love to publicize their peace efforts. But when it comes to Venezuela, they’re barely saying a word. Why are they so silent? pic.twitter.com/hv32yIDXT2

— Imdat Oner (@imdat_oner) December 2, 2025

The administration has already effectively labeled the whole government a 'narco-terror' organization, with its dubious and sweeping "Cartel of the Suns" recent terror designation. "Based in Venezuela, the Cartel de los Soles is headed by Nicolás Maduro and other high-ranking individuals of the illegitimate Maduro regime who have corrupted Venezuela’s military, intelligence, legislature, and judiciary," the mid-November official designation indicated. "Neither Maduro nor his cronies represent Venezuela’s legitimate government."

Could American military action soon commence in Venezuela? Will Maduro find himself in a luxury high-rise in Qatar by month's end?

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 09:35

US Industrial Production Sees Biggest Annual Gain In 3 Years Despite Slowing Capacity Utilization

First things first, this is data for September. But we would given this morning's Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output data a 'meh' ranking.

Industrial Production rose just 0.1% MoM (as expected) up from the downwardly revised 0.3% MoM decline in August. On a YoY basis, production rose 1.62% - its best since Nov 2022...

US Manufacturing output was unchanged in September (slowing from the 0.1% MoM rise in August), but, like IP, that supported a 1.5% YoY rise in output, its highest level since April 2022...

But the big headline of this (admittedly lagged) report is the weakness in Capacity Utilization at just 75.9% in September (well below the 77.4% print for August, which was revised down to 75.9%, and a big miss versus the 77.2% exp)

Source: Bloomberg

Just as we have seen with the employment data, it appears the US Manufacturing economy has flatlined for much of Q3. Certainly supportive of a cut next week and trend toward more cuts (which are not priced in for now).

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 09:27

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production (IP) increased 0.1 percent in September after moving down 0.3 percent in August; for the third quarter as a whole, IP increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent. In September, the indexes for manufacturing and for mining were unchanged relative to August, and the output of utilities moved up 1.1 percent. At 101.4 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in September was 1.6 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization was unchanged relative to August at 75.9 percent, a rate that is 3.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 75.9% is 3.6% below the average from 1972 to 2023.  This was below consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased to 101.4. This is below the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was below consensus expectations (with revisions).

Zelensky's Meeting With US Envoy Cancelled After No Real Progress In 5-Hour Moscow Talks

The Russian-US negotiations on the Ukraine conflict concluded in the Kremlin after some five hours of intense negotiations, which had reportedly gone late into the night. Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov indicated the US side of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner presented four more documents concerning the peace settlement during the Kremlin talks; however, a sticking point remains territory.

"Some American proposals are acceptable to Russia, while others are not," the aide stated bluntly. Crucially he at one point responded to a question of whether peace had become closer or further following these talks, to which Ushakov responded, "Definitely not further."

"Territorial issues were discussed specifically, without which we do not see a resolution of the crisis," Ushakov told reporters immediately after the meeting. "Of course, the enormous prospects for future economic co-operation between the two countries were also discussed."

Via Sputnik/NYT

This latter point of cooperation between the US and Russia has "vast potential" - Ushakov said, suggesting the Kremlin doesn't see the peace deal as where it wants it to be in terms of territorial settlement. The US-backed draft peace plan offers that Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk would be recognized "as de facto Russian, including by the United States." However, Ukraine and other countries would not need to recognize Russian control by law, but Moscow legally sees them as part of the Russian Federation after the wartime 'popular referendums' held in the fall of 2022.

The draft also calls to freeze the front lines of fighting where they are in the southern oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzia, with Russia having relinquish other areas such as the Kharkiv and Sumy regions in the northeast, as well the Mykolaiv region in the south. Overall the lengthy session was deemed by the Russian side as "productive" - with Ushakov also saying "We discussed the substance, not specific wording and solutions. The parties see enormous potential for cooperation."

"As for a possible meeting at the presidential level, that will depend on the progress we’re able to make through the persistent work carried out by our aides and representatives," Ushakov said. And more on US-Russia relations: "But this time, we emphasized that if we genuinely want to work together — and there are enormous opportunities — then it’s time to show some real commitment," the Kremlin official said.

While the negotiations were happening or about to proceed, President Trump in Washington had admitted it's not "an easy situation" to settle, but that "Our people are over in Russia right now to see if we can get it settled. Not an easy situation, let me tell you. What a mess." He reiterated in a cabinet meeting: "It’s a war that never would have happened if I were President."

As for the initially announced firm deadline of Thanksgiving Day for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept the US 28-point peace plan, President Trump appears to have backed down from that, given all of this back-and-forth is still proceeding.

I think we might take a minute to ask why the American government has sent a real estate developer and the president's son in law to negotiate directly with Vladimir Putin, rather than - say - the secretary of state, or a professional diplomat, or indeed anyone with training. https://t.co/6GoRkeMNUR

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) December 2, 2025

One interesting development is Axios reported that Witkoff was slated to meet with Zelensky and brief him on the talks with Putin. Zelensky has demanded this much, also given Kiev feels largely cut out of the US plan and negotiations. Trump also last week made clear he's not ready to meet with either Zelensky or Putin until a peace deal is in the final stages.

The expected Witkoff meeting with Zelensky has been canceled, and the US delegation is en route back home to Washington instead, in perhaps another slap in the face to Zelensky which further sidelines him once again. According to the UK Times:

A meeting between President Zelensky and a US delegation planned for Wednesday has been cancelled after talks in Russia on the war in Ukraine concluded without a breakthrough.

Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s special envoy, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, spoke to President Putin and other Russian officials in Moscow for five hours on Tuesday but failed to make any headway on a peace deal.

The US negotiators were due to debrief Zelensky in Brussels after the talks. However, Witkoff and Kushner left Moscow on Tuesday night for Washington, the Kremlin said.

Meanwhile the Kremlin on Wednesday has followed up with further explanation of its stance. "We proceed from the fact that in this case it is better for these negotiations to be conducted in silence," Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has been quoted in state media as saying. He added that Russia is "not a supporter of megaphone diplomacy."

Some aspects of the US plan are likely welcomed by Moscow...

Peskov explained that "it would be wrong" to say Putin had turned down the American proposals after the talks in Moscow. He described the first direct exchange on the plan as being that "some things were accepted, some were marked as unacceptable," and that this is part of a "normal negotiation process” and “a search for compromise." 

Having just announced it's taken military control of Pokrovsk, amid a string of steady advances in the east, Moscow knows it is firmly in the driver's seat - yet the proxy war continues its dangerous path of escalation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 08:45

Futures Rise As Bitcoin Extends Rally For 2nd Day, Copper Hits Record

US equity futures are higher again, led by small cap stocks. As of 8:20am ET, S&P futures are up 0.2% (they dropped following a very ugly ADP print at 8:15am), the same as Nasdaq 100 futs, with Mag 7 stocks mostly higher premarket led by NVDA (+0.4%) and AMZN (+0.3%); MRVL is up +10% post-earnings given the robust long-term guidance. Europe's Stoxx 600 is also higher led by tech and energy sectors.  Bond yields are lower, the move accelerating after the ADP print; the USD is also lower. Commodities are mixed: Oil higher, while copper hit a fresh record high above $11,350/ton following the largest surge in orders since 2013. Bitcoin extended a tentative rebound on Wednesday, rising as high as $94,000, though sentiment remains fragile. On the news front, increment updates were relatively muted overnight except for MRVL’s positive earnings that trigger the rebound in global tech. The US economic calendar includes November ADP employment change (8:15am), September import/export price index (8:30am), September industrial production (9:15am), November final S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and November ISM services (10am).

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Nvidia +0.8%, Amazon +0.4%, Alphabet +0.3%, Tesla +0.1%, Microsoft -0.1%, Apple +0.04%, Meta +0.06%)

• Acadia Health (ACHC) slumps 29% after the psychiatric-hospital chain cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
• American Eagle (AEO) surges 12% after the apparel retailer raised its comparable sales guidance for the full year and reported net revenue for the third quarter that topped the average analyst estimate.
• Astera Labs (ALAB) rises 7% as analysts note that Amazon’s AWS Trainium artificial intelligence chip is a positive for the semiconductor manufacturing company. Amazon’s cloud unit raced to get the latest version of its AI chip Trainium3 to market and unveiled Trainium4.
• GitLab (GTLB) falls 8% after the software company’s results and forecast were seen as underwhelming. Bloomberg Intelligence wrote that the report reinforces concerns about AI.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) rises 9% after the chipmaker’s CEO assuaged investor concerns with positive trends at its custom chip-design unit. The company also announced plans to acquire startup Celestial AI for about $3.25 billion.
• Microchip (MCHP) is up 2% after the semiconductor device company forecast adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Oracle (ORCL) gains 1.6% as Wells Fargo starts coverage of the tech giant with a recommendation of overweight, describing the firm as an “emerging leader in the AI super-cycle.”
• Okta (OKTA) is down 4% after the software company’s results and forecast were seen as underwhelming.
• Pharvaris (PHVS) jumps 18% after the drug developer said a late-stage trial of its investigative therapy for hereditary angioedema (HAE) — a rare genetic condition that causes severe swelling — met its main goal
• Pure Storage (PSTG) declines 14% after the computer hardware and storage company reported higher operational expenditure in the third quarter.

Stocks rose for a second day, but eased back after ADP reported that US companies shed payrolls in November by the most since early 2023, adding to concerns about a more pronounced weakening in the labor market. Private-sector payrolls decreased by 32,000, according to ADP Research data released Wednesday. Payrolls have now fallen four times in the last six months. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 10,000 gain.

The data may add some support for the December rate-cut case, although markets are already treating a cut as a sure thing. Trump said he plans to announce his selection to lead the Fed in early 2026 and teased chief economic adviser Kevin Hassett as his possible choice. Traders are piling into bets that a new chair will support Trump’s calls for lower rates.

As Fed policymakers gather next week, the debate among officials will largely center on the job market and whether rates should be reduced for a third straight time. While the latest government report showed a larger-than-expected rise in payrolls, the gain was concentrated in just a few industries. The unemployment rate ticked up to an almost four-year high, and there’s been a steady drumbeat of layoff news from companies.

“Right now, the data argues for additional Fed funds rate cuts. US labor demand is weak, consumer spending is showing early signs of cracking, and upside risks to inflation are fading,” said Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman.

Also due today are ISM services data for November, as well as delayed import price index and industrial production numbers for September.

Elsewhere, traders continue to weigh conflicting signals in the AI story. The AI story and how much further it can power the market, continues to be top of mind. Marvell shares are soaring after its prediction for data center revenue to grow 25%, with further fuel to bulls coming from AI-power darling Vistra, which was raised to investment grade by S&P.

At the same time, Oracle credit default swaps closed at the highest level since the financial crisis. And Sam Altman seems to be worried about competition — he was said to declare a ‘code red’ to speed up improvements to OpenAI’s ChatGPT. 

The SEC is said to have issued a flurry of warning letters to nine providers of highly-leveraged ETF plans, effectively blocking the introduction of such products. CME is working to improve client communications after Friday’s outage that disrupted multiple financial markets. Crypto giant Binance appointed co-founder Yi He as co-CEO. 

European stocks are broadly firmer with the Stoxx 600 index up 0.2%. The FTSE 100 is lagging, trading lower by 0.2% alongside a firmer pound and losses in index-heavyweight HSBC. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

• Stellantis gains as much as 8.4% after UBS analyst Patrick Hummel raised his recommendation on the carmaker to buy from neutral and following a report that the White House will announce new fuel efficiency standards for automobiles.
• European semiconductor stocks with data‑center and 5G exposure advance after US peer Marvell Technology reassured investors that its custom chip-design unit is winning repeat orders, signaling continued growth as the company benefits from runaway spending on AI computing.
• European defense stocks rise on Wednesday morning. The Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin held “very useful” talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, though the sides failed to reach agreement on a plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• Inditex rises as much as 8.9% after releasing third-quarter results that beat consensus estimates.
• Cosmo Pharmaceuticals shares soar as much as 24% after the company said two late-stage studies of its experimental treatment for male hair loss reached statistically significant endpoints.
• Tomra shares advance as much as 6.3% as Pareto Securities flagged that the Norwegian recycling equipment company’s upcoming fourth-quarter earnings due on Feb. 13 “could be the inflection point,” with current consensus overlooking margin effects from recent changes.
• Bloomsbury Publishing shares rise as much as 5.2% after the firm struck a new strategic collaboration with Google on AI-powered learning and core publishing infrastructure. Berenberg said this is another example of the benefits AI is having on the publisher.
• Hugo Boss slumps as much as 11% after the luxury branded-clothes retailer announced its strategy plan through 2028.
• Eutelsat shares slump as much as 9.6% after Softbank, the satellite firm’s fifth biggest shareholder, offered rights at a discount as it opts not to take up more shares in the French company.
• Spire Healthcare shares drop as much as 15% after the private UK hospital operator gave a forecast for 2026 adjusted Ebitda that RBC called a “substantial” profit warning.
• Trainline falls as much as 12% as the online train ticketing platform receives its only sell-equivalent rating following a JPMorgan downgrade to underweight from neutral.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded in a narrow range as investors awaited key data that will provide clues on the global economic outlook. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged down 0.1%, weighed by Alibaba and Tencent. TSMC and some Japanese tech firms were among the biggest boosts for the gauge. Stocks advanced in South Korea and Taiwan, while benchmarks in Hong Kong and India declined. The MSCI Asia gauge has been trading sideways over the past week, though it is still on track to cap its best year since 2017. The outlook for the artificial intelligence trade that has contributed much to the region’s gains in 2025 got a fresh tailwind from Marvell’s upbeat projections. Tech investors also digested details of Amazon.com’s new chip and continued to be enthusiastic over Apple’s AI advances.

In FX, the pound sits near the top of the pile with an upward revision to final UK PMIs giving the currency an additional boost. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.3%.

In rates, 10Y Treasuries are a touch firmer extending Tuesday’s advance and outperforming European bond markets with no real bias on the US curve. Yields are richer by 2bp-3bp, keeping curve spreads within a basis point of Tuesday’s closing levels. 10-year is near 4.06%, about 2bp richer on the day and outperforming bunds by 1.5bp. Gilts are marginally outperforming US and German peers.  IG dollar bond issuance slate empty so far and expected to slow following a strong start to the week. Eight firms sold a combined $5.65 billion Tuesday — the second-straight session with that many borrowers — taking the weekly haul past dealers’ forecasts of around $20 billion. Focal points of US session include November ADP employment and services PMI gauges, along with anticipation of US government labor-market data releases that were held up by the shutdown and US President Trump’s announcement of Fed Chair Powell’s successor. In commodities,

In commodities, copper has hit a fresh record high above $11,350/ton following the largest surge in orders since 2013. Spot gold trades flat around $4,200/oz. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.4% as traders weigh continued talks between the US and Russia that have so far failed to end the war in Ukraine. Bitcoin extended a tentative rebound on Wednesday, rising as high as $94,000. 

Today's US economic calendar includes November ADP employment change (8:15am), September import/export price index (8:30am), September industrial production (9:15am), November final S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and November ISM services (10am).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.1%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
• DAX +0.3%
• CAC 40 +0.3%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.08%
• VIX -0.1 points at 16.51
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.3% at 1214.12
• euro +0.3% at $1.1657
• WTI crude +1.5% at $59.54/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump posted that "Any and all Documents, Proclamations, Executive Orders, Memorandums, or Contracts, signed by Order of the now infamous and unauthorized “AUTOPEN,” within the Administration of Joseph R. Biden Jr., are hereby null, void, and of no further force or effect. Anyone receiving “Pardons,” “Commutations,” or any other Legal Document so signed, please be advised that said Document has been fully and completely terminated."
• Marathon Russia-U.S. Meeting Yields No Ukraine Peace Deal: WSJ
• Kremlin says Putin accepted some US proposals on Ukraine and is ready to continue talking: RTRS
• Republican Wins Closely Watched House Special Election in Tennessee: WSJ
• US paused all immigration applications filed by immigrants from 19 countries it restricted from travel to the US earlier this year: NYT.
• Trump’s Aides Cancel Fed Chair Interviews as President Homes In on Pick: WSJ
• Trump Says He Doesn’t Want Somali Immigrants in U.S. as ICE Plans Operation: WSJ
• US judge blocked the Trump admin from enforcing a law depriving Planned Parenthood of Medicaid funding in 22 states.
• Airbus Sees Setbacks and Boeing Rebounds as Script Quickly Flips: BBG
• The AI frenzy is driving a new global supply chain crisis: RTRS
• A Newly Confident China Is Jockeying for More Global Clout as Trump Pulls Back: WSJ
• HSBC Names Chairman After Yearlong Search: WSJ
• Harvard’s Big Wager on Bitcoin Came Right Before the Bust: WSJ
• Nvidia’s Fat Margins Are Google and AMD’s Opportunity: WSJ
• BofA Total Card Spending (w/e Nov 29th) +0.2% (prev. +2.4% avg. in October); highlights that the slowdown was broad based and higher core goods inflation meant real spending was ever weaker.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said they will give refunds out of the tariffs and believes they won't have income tax to pay in the near future.
• US President Trump thanked Chinese President Xi for soybean purchases. It was separately reported that at least six shipments of US soybeans for China are to load at Gulf Coast terminals through mid-December, while the first US sorghum cargo to China since March is also loading at the Gulf Coast terminal, and a second cargo is due next week.
• US President Trump posted that he had a very productive call with Brazilian President Lula and "Among the things discussed were Trade, how our Countries could work together to stop Organized Crime, Sanctions imposed on various Brazilian dignitaries, Tariffs, and various other items." Trump added he believes "it set the stage for very good dialogue and agreement long into the future... Much good will come out of this newly formed partnership!"
• EU is said to be pushing for 70% of critical goods to be made in Europe, according to FT.
• Annual negotiations between Chinese copper smelters and Antofagasta (ANTO LN) have not progressed, as Chinese smelters remain determined to avoid negative fees, via Bloomberg citing sources

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed, with the region only partially sustaining the positive momentum from Wall St, where tech and crypto rebounded. ASX 200 traded marginally higher but with gains limited as participants also reflected on disappointing Australian GDP data. Nikkei 225 rallied to back above the 50k level as it benefitted from tech-related momentum. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined after the Chinese tech giants failed to join in the spoils seen in global peers and after the PBoC continued to drain liquidity through its daily open market operations, while participants also digested the latest Chinese RatingDog Services and Composite PMI data, which continued to show an expansion in activity, albeit at a slower-than-previous pace.

Top Asian News

• China was reported to unveil a plan to boost tourism and aviation sectors and will strengthen inbound tourism air routes, while it will continue to ease entry and travel for foreign tourists and will boost tourism through coordinated consumption policies.
• DigiTimes reports that memory spot prices surged in November, despite Samsung Electronics' (005930 KS) RDIMM release marginally easing shortages, as suppliers hiked contract prices significantly. "Some industry insiders reveal that after Samsung halted pricing quotes in October, it resumed DRAM chip quotations mid-November with average contract price increases of 30-40%." "Sources indicate US-based NAND giants raised prices repeatedly, with November quotes 100-150% above October." "Expectations point to even steeper hikes in the first quarter of 2026."
• "Samsung Electronics' (005930 KS) final HBM4 samples are scheduled to undergo 2.5D packaging and finished product testing starting this month," via zdnet citing sources
• China is reportedly likely to maintain the annual growth target of around 5% in 2026, via Reuters citing sources; some advisors cited proposed a 4.5-5.0% target
• India's Chief Economic Adviser says he's not losing sleep over the INR weakening

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened with modest gains, following on from a positive session on Wall St. in Tuesday's session. Price action this morning has been mixed, with a few indices trading rangebound whilst others have gradually edged higher. European sectors are split down the middle. Retail leads the pile (buoyed by Inditex +8.50% post-earnings), whilst Energy and Tech complete the top three. Sentiment for the latter has been boosted after positive results from Marvell, which gains in pre-market trade. To the downside resides Insurance, and Optimised Personal Care.

Top European News

• French Parliamentary debate on the increases to the General Social Contribution on capital income, part of the Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS), will be discussed later this week after the revenue component, Politico reports.
• ECB's Lane says they have a clear orientation for monetary policy conduct. On inflation "...a sufficiently large and persistent deviation from the target requires a monetary policy response, regardless of its origin". "In summary, this discussion has emphasised that the appropriate monetary policy response to an inflation deviation from the target is context specific and requires a careful analysis of a broad set of considerations. Of course, the capacity to consider “looking through” some types of inflation deviations depends on a strong institutional commitment to delivering the symmetric inflation target over the medium term, underpinning firmly-anchored medium-term inflation expectations".

FX

• DXY is softer today and trades towards the lower end of a 98.99 to 99.30 range. G10s are mostly stronger vs the Dollar, albeit to varying degrees. For the USD specifically, all focus has been on Fed developments, and in particular, President Trump hinting that White House NEC Director Hassett as the “potential” next Fed Chair. Moreover, it was reported in the WSJ that Trump aides have cancelled a number of Fed Chair interviews, after the POTUS said he had made up his mind. JD Vance was reportedly scheduled to meet with more candidates today, though those were cancelled, with the WSJ sources suggesting that it was currently unclear if they would be rescheduled. Odds of a Hassett chair nomination currently reside around 86% vs 75% earlier this week, on Kalshi. Ahead focus turns to US ADP National Employment and then ISM Services.
• EUR firmer and trades at the upper end of a 1.1622 to 1.1663 range. Benefiting from the weaker Dollar and softer energy prices. The single currency was little moved on EZ Final PMI metrics, which were revised slightly higher; the internal report said that the ECB will likely continue to communicate holding steady on rates. Most recently the EUR has notched fresh peaks, but without a clear catalyst; potentially a factor of a slight bounce in EUR/GBP, which gave the EUR/USD a bid.
• Elsewhere, GBP was initially gaining modestly vs the USD, before catching a recent bid, taking Cable to a fresh 1.3279 peak where it currently resides, lifting GBP/JPY closer to the key 207.20 mark and weighing on EUR/GBP. No catalyst for that upside. Thereafter, the GBP took another leg higher on the upwardly revised PMI metrics.
• Uneventful trade for USD/JPY this morning, and ultimately moving at the whim of the Dollar. Currently trading at the lower end of a relatively narrow 155.52 to 155.90 range, awaiting key US data later.
• Earlier, CHF was pressured after a cooler-than-expected inflation report which saw Y/Y printed below expected at 0.0% whilst the M/M printed in-line. In an immediate reaction, EUR/CHF lifted from 0.9332 to 0.9339; the upside was ultimately fairly muted given there were a number of analysts also expecting a 0.0% Y/Y print (which would be in-line). Moreover, traders will look towards the SNB meeting next week; policymakers have significantly raised the bar for a sub-0% policy rate, and while today’s outturn factors on the dovish side, it is unlikely to warrant a return to NIRP, focus instead on inflation forecast adjustments and FX language. Though, a move back to NIRP cannot be ruled out.

Fixed Income

• For the most part, a session of modest gains for fixed benchmarks, ranges limited, awaiting newsflow later in the session. More recently, benchmarks have reverted back to lows and are threatening a move into the red, potentially amid yield upside on continued Crude gains.
• USTs got to a 113-01+ peak, firmer by just under five ticks at best. Yields lower across the curve at first, but the long end moving higher as the morning continues and the steepening bias extends. The main driver being the WSJ reporting that the final Fed Chair interviews have been cancelled and Trump announcing that he will make an announcement early-2026, steepening began as Trump referred to Hassett as the "potential" next Fed Chair.
• Bunds off best in a 128.25-41 band. The benchmark has been firmer for the entire morning, saw some fleeting pressure on upwardly-revised Final PMIs, but for the most part has been choppy and directionless in the mentioned band, before succumbing to what appears to be energy-induced pressure in recent trade.
• A similar story for Gilts. No move to the region's own PMIs, revised higher. Internal commentary was downbeat, though we wait to see how this shakes out in the post-Budget metrics. Commentary also pointed to wage pressure, a point that factors against BoE easing in December, though a cut appears increasingly likely barring a shock in the November CPI print due just before the December announcement. Off highs but firmer by around 10 ticks in a 91.22-50 band.
• UK sells GBP 4.75bln 4.00% 2029 Gilt: b/c 3.10x (prev. 3.06x), avg. yield 3.855% (prev. 3.845%), tail 0.4bps (prev. 0.4bps)

Commodities

• WTI and Brent dipped to a low of USD 58.38/bbl and USD 62.19/bbl, respectively, in the early hours of the APAC session. They have gradually trended higher throughout the European session thus far, as traders react to the lack of significant progress from the Putin-Witkoff meeting in Moscow. Benchmarks have steadily bid c. USD 1.00/bbl from its session lows and are currently trading back above USD 59/bbl and USD 63/bbl. Brent Feb'26 currently trading at the upper end of a USD 62.18-63.37/bbl range.
• Dutch TTF has failed to bid higher following the reports that the EU have reached a deal on phasing out Russian gas imports by 2027. The deal is caveated with a possible extension to the ban implementation in case of difficulty filling gas storage. After opening the session at EUR 28.15/MWh, Dutch TTF has fallen lower and is currently trading near session lows at EUR 27.74/MWh.
• Spot XAU has traded on both sides of the unchanged mark, as the yellow metal struggled to find direction at the start of the European session. XAU followed on from the bid higher in Tuesday's US session and peaked at USD 4229/oz in the early hours of APAC trade. As the European session got underway, the yellow metal dipped back below USD 4200/oz as the market continues to digest the possibility of Kevin Hassett as the new Fed Chair.
• 3M LME Copper has started the European session on the frontfoot and is currently trading at USD 11.41k/t, extending to fresh ATHs. This comes as demand for the red metal continues to grow, shown by the spike in requests to withdraw inventories from LME warehouses. Supply disruptions and front-running of possible import tariffs into the US have been the theme in 2025 that has driven Copper to record highs.
• Ukraine has hit Russia's Druzhba oil pipeline in the Tambov region, according to Reuters sources.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel's COGAT says the Rafah crossing will open in the coming days for Palestinians to exit from Gaza to Egypt.
• Russia's Kremlin says it would be wrong to say that President Putin rejected the US' peace plan, adds that Russia highly values US President Trump's political will and are trying to find a resolution.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russian President Putin's envoy Dmitriev described talks with the US in Moscow as productive after Russian President Putin's meeting with US Special Envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner lasted for five hours.
• Russian Kremlin aide Ushakov said the conversation between Russian President Putin and US Special Envoy Witkoff was useful, constructive and meaningful and that they discussed several options for Ukraine's settlement plan, although he stated that they are no closer to resolving the crisis in Ukraine, and there is much work to be done. Ushakov said Putin asked to convey a number of important political signals to Trump and they agreed with their American colleagues not to disclose the substance of the negotiations that took place with the discussion confidential. Furthermore, he said American representatives will return to the US, present their findings to President Trump and contact the Russian side, while they also discussed prospects for economic cooperation between Russia and the US.
• European Commission is to make a legal proposal this week to use Russia's frozen assets for a Ukraine loan, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• German Foreign Minister Wadephul says they are to procure an additional USD 200mln worth of military equipment for Ukraine across two packages
• EU Ambassadors meeting has been moved forward to 13:30GMT (prev. 17:45GMT), regarding the use of frozen Russian assets for a Ukraine reparation loan, via Politico. Diplomats cited say that Commission President von der Leyen intends to use Article 122, "solidarity in economic emergencies"; elaborating that this means the clause could be deployed to extend the sanctions renewal period from six months to three years, potentially bypassing the unanimity requirement.
• Belgium Foreign Minister says, re. the use of frozen Russian assets, "the texts the Commission will table today do not address our concerns in a satisfactory manner. It is not acceptable to use the money and leave us alone facing the risks".

Geopolitics: Other

• US President Trump signed into law a measure forcing the State Department to review guidelines for the country’s engagement with Taiwan, according to the White House.
• South Korean President Lee said communication is completely cut off between South Korea and North Korea, while he added that North Korea keeps refusing our efforts to talk. Lee also commented that South Korea can look into the issue of joint exercises with the US to help create grounds for dialogue between the US and North Korea, as well as stated that they will not veer off the road towards denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Nov 28 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 0.2%
• 8:15 am: Nov ADP Employment Change, est. 10k, prior 42k
• 8:30 am: Sep Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.3%
• 8:30 am: Sep Import Price Index YoY, est. 0.45%, prior 0%
• 9:15 am: Sep Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.05%, prior 0.1%, revised -0.08%
• 9:15 am: Sep Capacity Utilization, est. 77.2%, prior 77.4%, revised 75.84%
• 9:45 am: Nov F S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 55, prior 55
• 9:45 am: Nov F S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, prior 54.8
• 10:00 am: Nov ISM Services Index, est. 52, prior 52.4

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets showed signs of stabilising yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.25%) posting a modest increase after its selloff at the start of the week. US futures are up around the same amount again this morning as we type. Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.07%) also edged higher, whilst the 2yr Treasury yield (-2.1bps) inched lower as expectations that Kevin Hassett would be nominated for the Fed Chair role continued to solidify. To be honest though, signs of caution still abound, particularly given the backlog of US data. So there is some element of consolidation ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting with the equity market already having run up on the back of pricing moving from a 24.5% probability of a cut just under two weeks ago, to now well over 90%. One asset class that did see ongoing volatility was crypto, with Bitcoin (+5.97%) posting its best day since May as it recovered from Monday’s slump. It's up another couple of percent this morning.  

However, the broader lack of volatility could soon change, as we’ve got a few private US surveys that are attracting more attention than usual. That includes the ADP’s report of private payrolls today, which markets have been more reactive to since the shutdown began, not least because we won’t get the usual jobs report this Friday. Our US economists expect that to come in at +50k in November, which would imply a further 11bps deterioration in the year-on-year growth rate of private employment to 0.62%. So in their view, that would reinforce most Fed officials’ view that the labour market is still gradually cooling. Then shortly after that, we’ll get the ISM services print, where the prices paid component will be in focus given it’s been strongly correlated to US inflation with a lag. That prices paid component hit a 3-year high of 70.0 last month, so it’ll be in focus given we don’t have the official inflation data for October or November yet, and markets are proving much more sensitive to anything else that can provide a steer on what’s happening.  

Ahead of those releases, there was little for markets to react to yesterday. So the S&P 500 (+0.25%) only made a modest gain, with the Magnificent 7 (+0.52%) posting a slight outperformance. To be fair, there were some big individual movers, and Boeing (+10.15%) was the top-performer in the S&P after their CFO said they expected to generate positive free cash flow in the low-single digits next year. But more broadly, there was little to provide much positive traction, with most of the S&P constituents lower on the day and defensive sectors struggling in particular, including energy (-1.28%) and utilities (-0.72%).  

In the meantime, we did hear some news on the search for a new Fed Chair. The initial headline was the lack of news, as President Trump said they‘d be announcing the new Chair “probably early next year”, a bit later than many had anticipated as Treasury Secretary Bessent previously said that there was “a very good chance” we’d get an announcement by Christmas. However, Trump later referred to NEC Director Kevin Hassett as a “potential” Fed Chair and then last night the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration had cancelled interviews with a group of finalists for the role that were set to start this week. So the Polymarket probability of Hassett getting the job moved higher after an initial drop, reaching 87%. Yesterday I published an AI generated CoTD that showed that only 2 out of 15 Fed Chairs have stayed on as Governor after their term as Chair ended. I highlighted that the most recent one to do so, Marriner Eccles, stayed on in 1948 for over 3 years as he was worried about Fed independence in a period the Fed were pegging interest rates to finance WWII debts. Once the Fed Treasury accord was signed, he resigned in the knowledge he had completed his mission. Is there a parallel this time around? If someone is appointed Chair that is perceived to threaten Fed independence could Powell stay on? See the CoTD here for more. Also see DB's Peter Hooper's take on the same topic here for additional insight.  

Back to yesterday, as expectations for Fed rate cuts inched higher, 2yr US Treasury yields were down -2.1bps to 3.51%, whilst the 10yr yield was unchanged at 4.09%. They are both another basis point lower this morning.  
Over in Europe, bonds put in a slightly stronger performance, despite the Euro Area flash CPI print for November coming in above expectations. It showed headline inflation at +2.2% in November (vs. +2.1% expected), whilst core inflation was steady at +2.4% as expected. However, there was more dovish news on the labour market, as the Euro Area unemployment rate came in at 6.4% in October (vs. 6.3% expected). So by the close, yields on 10yr bunds (-0.1bps) just about managed to inch lower, whilst yields on 10yr OATs (+0.6bps) and BTPs (-0.4bps) also saw little movement.  

That underperformance for French OATs comes as the National Assembly have now begun debating the social security bill, with the leader of “Horizons” stating that his members couldn’t approve the Social Security budget. They’re officially in the government coalition, so their lack of approval makes a difference in terms of the final outcome. As a reminder, a vote in the National Assembly is scheduled for December 9, but the previous issue remains in that the Assembly is fragmented between different political groups where no one has a majority. So investors are still keeping a close eye, with the Franco-German 10yr spread (+0.7bps) moving back up to 74bps. France’s CAC 40 (-0.28%) also lost ground yesterday, in contrast to Germany’s DAX (+0.51%) and the Europe-wide STOXX 600 (+0.07%). For more details, our economist has more on the budget process and hurdles ahead in his report on the social security bill.

In geopolitical news, yesterday saw Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff meet Russia’s President Putin in Moscow to discuss US proposals to end the war in Ukraine. Putin’s chief foreign policy advisor Ushakov said the talks were “constructive and very informative” but that “a compromise hasn’t been reached yet” on territorial questions and that joint talks would continue. Earlier, NBC News reported that there were three points on which the Kremlin was unwilling to compromise, specifically control of all of the Donbass region, a limit on Ukraine’s armed forces and recognition of Russian-controlled territories by the US and Europe.

In Asia the Nikkei (+1.63%) is leading regional gains, driven by technology and real estate stocks, while the KOSPI (+1.18%) is also seeing a notable increase. The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.18%) is registering slight gains after the Australian economy expanded less than anticipated in the September quarter (details below), but with much stronger details below the surface which has increased expectations of rate hikes. Elsewhere the Shanghai Composite (-0.23%) is lower but with the Hang Seng (-1.10%) trading notably lower.  

Turning back to Australia, GDP increased by +0.4% quarter-on-quarter for the three months ending September 30, falling short of the +0.7% growth expectations and slowing from the revised +0.7% rise observed in the previous quarter, as weak net trade and a significant reduction in inventories counterbalanced robust domestic demand. On a year-on-year basis, GDP grew by +2.1% in Q3, compared to expectations of 2.2% and growth of 2.0% in the preceding quarter. Markets have seen it as a hawkish release due to the big inventory miss and one of the strongest final demand prints in the last 10-15 years.

Indeed, yields on the policy-sensitive 2-year government bonds have risen by +5.7bps, settling at 3.91%, while 10-year yields have increased by +3.1bps, trading at 4.64% as we prepare to publish. Elsewhere, 10 and 30yr JGBs are up by +2.8bps and 4.3bps respectively ahead of a 30yr auction tomorrow.  

Separately, in China, a private survey indicated that growth in the services sector has slowed to a five-month low in November, with the services PMI declining to 52.1 from 52.6. This slowdown is attributed to weaker new orders and ongoing job contractions, despite a modest improvement in export activity.

To the day ahead now, and US data release include the ISM services index for November, the ADP’s report of private payrolls for November, and industrial production or September. Otherwise, we’ll get the final services and composite PMIs for November from the US and Europe. Finally, from central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Lane, and the BoE’s Mann

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 08:37

The post New York Times Gets the Story on Prescription Drug Prices Wrong appeared first on CEPR.

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Shed 32,000 Jobs in November; Annual Pay was Up 4.4%

“Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “And while November's slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.”
emphasis added

This was below the consensus forecast of 20,000 jobs added. The BLS report will NOT be released on Friday due to the government shutdown.

What GAO Found Preliminary results from GAO's ongoing covert testing suggest fraud risks in the advance premium tax credit (APTC) persist. The federal Marketplace approved coverage for nearly all of GAO's fictitious applicants in plan years 2024 and 2025, generally consistent with similar GAO testing in plan years 2014 through 2016. GAO's covert testing is illustrative and cannot be generalized to the enrollee population. Plan year 2024. The federal Marketplace approved subsidized coverage for all four of GAO's fictitious applicants submitted in October 2024. In total, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) paid about $2,350 per month in APTC in November and December for these fictitious enrollees. For some, the federal Marketplace requested documentation to support Social Security numbers (SSN), citizenship, and reported income. GAO did not provide documentation yet received coverage. Plan year 2025. Of 20 fictitious applicants, 18 remain actively covered as of September 2025. APTC for these 18 enrollees totals over $10,000 per month. GAO continues to monitor the enrollments as part of its ongoing work. More broadly, GAO's preliminary analyses identified vulnerabilities related to potential SSN misuse and likely unauthorized enrollment changes in federal Marketplace data for plan years 2023 and 2024. Such issues can contribute to APTC that is not reconciled through enrollees' tax filings to determine the amount of premium tax credit for which enrollees were ultimately eligible. GAO's preliminary analysis of data from tax year 2023 could not identify evidence of reconciliation for over $21 billion in APTC for enrollees who provided SSNs to the federal Marketplace for plan year 2023. Unreconciled APTC may not necessarily represent overpayments, as enrollees who did not reconcile may have been eligible for the subsidy. However, it may include overpayments for enrollees who were not eligible for APTC. Overused SSNs. GAO's preliminary analyses identified over 29,000 SSNs in plan year 2023 and nearly 68,000 SSNs in plan year 2024 used to receive more than one year's worth of insurance coverage with APTC in a single plan year. CMS officials explained that the federal Marketplace does not prohibit multiple enrollments per SSN to help ensure that the actual SSN-holder can enroll in insurance coverage in cases of identity theft or data entry errors. GAO's preliminary analyses also identified at least 30,000 applications in plan year 2023 and at least 160,000 applications in plan year 2024 that had likely unauthorized changes by agents or brokers. This can result in consumer harm, including loss of access to medications. In July 2024, CMS implemented a new control to prevent such changes, which GAO is reviewing in its ongoing work. GAO preliminarily identified weaknesses in CMS’s APTC fraud risk management as compared to leading practices. Specifically, CMS has not updated its fraud risk assessment since 2018 despite changes in the program and its controls. Further, CMS’s 2018 assessment may not fully align with leading practices, like identifying inherent fraud risks. Finally, CMS did not use its 2018 assessment to develop an antifraud strategy. Together, these weaknesses appear to hinder CMS’s ability to effectively and proactively manage fraud risks in APTC. Why GAO Did This Study The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act provides premium tax credits to help eligible individuals pay for health insurance. The federal government can pay this credit directly to health insurance issuers as APTC. CMS estimated that it paid nearly $124 billion in APTC for about 19.5 million enrollees in plan year 2024. Consumers can enroll in insurance through the federal Marketplace independently or with assistance from an agent or broker. Recent indictments highlight concerns about agent and broker practices in the federal Marketplace. Further, CMS reported that it received roughly 275,000 complaints in 2024 that consumers were enrolled or had insurance plans changed in the federal Marketplace without their consent. GAO was asked to review issues related to fraud risk management in APTC. This report discusses preliminary results of ongoing GAO work related to (1) covert testing and (2) data analyses of enrollment controls in the federal Marketplace, as well as (3) CMS's APTC fraud risk assessment and antifraud strategy. To perform this work, GAO created 20 fictitious identities and submitted applications for health care coverage in the federal Marketplace for plan years 2024 and 2025. The results, while illustrative, cannot be generalized to the full enrollment population. Additionally, GAO analyzed federal Marketplace enrollment data for plan years 2023 and 2024 and compared these data to federal death data and tax data. Finally, GAO assessed documentation related to CMS's fraud risk management activities against relevant leading practices.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 28, 2025. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 33 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 109 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 32 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates moved lower in line with Treasury yields, which declined on data showing a weaker labor market and declining consumer confidence. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 6.32 percent after steadily increasing over the past month,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “After adjusting for the impact of the Thanksgiving holiday, refinance activity decreased across both conventional and government loans, as borrowers held out for lower rates. Purchase applications were up slightly, but we continue to see mixed results each week as the broader economic outlook remains cloudy, even as cooling home-price growth and increasing for-sale inventory bring some buyers back into the market.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.32 percent from 6.40 percent, with points decreasing to 0.58 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 17% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but solidly above the lows of 2023 and above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined, but is down from the recent peak in September.

Europe's Energy Transition Destroyed its Economy

You can have cheap, dependable electricity to encourage economic growth and prosperity, or you can have a grid supported by wind and solar energy. Europe chose the latter.

So far, the promise of “abundant solar and wind energy” has only succeeded at one thing: slashing carbon emissions by 30% from 2005 levels. Thankfully, food for European families is paid for by reducing greenhouse gases, right? Unfortunately, the emission reduction is the only benefit to be had by Europe’s current plan of destroying dependable coal and nuclear plants in favor of building unpredictable and unreliable wind and solar energy infrastructure. Here is the WSJ with the damning facts: 

“Germany now has the highest domestic electricity prices in the developed world, while the U.K. has the highest industrial electricity rates, according to a basket of 28 major economies analyzed by the International Energy Agency. Italy isn’t far behind. Average electricity prices for heavy industries in the European Union remain roughly twice those in the U.S. and 50% above China.”

Maybe burning all bridges - and blowing up subsea pipelines - to cheap Russian conventional energy was not the best idea.

In any case, absent huge changes, Europe has permanently excluded itself from the entire data center and AI industry boom. Why are all the data centers in the western world being built mostly in the US? Just look at the chart above. A massive cost to data center operators is the extremely electrical demand of their server racks and their cooling systems. They can pay over 25 c/kWh in some European countries, or they can come over here and pay as low as 8 c/kWh. The difference is an immediate deal breaker.

In some cases, it’s not even the prices turning off the data centers: European infrastructure industry just can’t handle it. “Jerome Evans, the CEO of a German data-center operator, sought to expand his two data centers in Frankfurt, Germany’s internet crossroads. The local power provider told him he would have to wait a decade, until 2035, for the energy to power them.”

The examples showcasing the results of Europe’s energy infrastructure choices are endless:

“‘We are hemorrhaging industry,’ said Dieter Helm, an economic professor at Oxford University who has advised U.K. governments on energy policy. British chemical company Ineos said in October it would close two plants in western Germany because of high energy costs. In recent days, Exxon-Mobil said it would close its chemical plant in Scotland and threatened to exit Europe’s chemicals industry, saying green policies made it uncompetitive.”

Meanwhile, the unpredictability of solar and wind is hurting everything everywhere. The costs of construction and operation are obscured by carbon taxes and government subsidies, and power finds its way to the grid on cloudy or windless days anyways, so what’s the issue? Those powerless days where panels and mills are sitting idle require power to be purchased, at a premium, from nearby countries. When this occurs for weeks at a time, prices can skyrocket for everyone.

As highlighted earlier, the problems are also only just starting, and the question of what to do with the impending wave of “renewable waste” will demand an answer.

Europe pursued the grand energy transition using the “or” strategy, in contrast to the “and” strategy used by the US. Europe has decided to shutdown all of its coal, gas, and nuclear plants while trying to at the same time build as much wind and solar as possible to replace the destroyed capacity. Compare this to countries like the US that instead decided to build more of everything at the same time, and the results become alarmingly clear.

The US took its buildout of nuclear energy a step further with the announcement of nearly a billion dollars for deploying new advanced reactor technology. $400 million will be provided to the Tennessee Valley Authority for developing the BWRX-309 reactor, a joint venture reactor design between GE Vernova and Hitachi. Their reactor is already under construction in Canada at the Darlington site, while the permit to start construction of the second iteration is under review by the NRC.

Another $400 million will go to Holtec to deploy two of their SMR-300 reactors at the Palisades site in Michigan. Both designs receiving Department of Energy funding are smaller reactors with target outputs of about 300 MW electric, compared to the much larger AP1000 reactors built in Georgia that are rated to about 1,100 MW electric. This class of small-but-still-pretty-big reactors focus on minimizing land use and supporting electric grids on a small scale. There’s also a place for them powering larger-scale data centers.

Both reactor projects in Tennessee and Michigan look to be grid connected in the 2030s.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 06:55

A Third Of Glasgow Schoolchildren Don't Speak English

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Nearly one in three children in Glasgow’s primary schools do not speak English as their first language, according to new council data, highlighting a dramatic shift driven by record migration levels that are overwhelming local resources and raising urgent questions about integration and public services.

The figures, revealed in a Telegraph report, show 31% of pupils in the city’s primaries requiring English as an additional language support, up from 25% five years ago, amid Scotland’s net migration hitting 50,000 annually.

As classrooms grapple with translation demands and parents voice fears over cultural silos, the crisis underscores a broader UK strain where rapid demographic changes are testing the limits of cohesion without adequate planning.

'This is a symptom of an immigration system that is way too overrun…'

Political Commentator @DobbsandPolicy reacts to news that almost 30% of students in Glasgow do not speak English as their first language. pic.twitter.com/ttfceYjm6k

— GB News (@GBNEWS) December 2, 2025

Glasgow City Council’s latest census data indicates 31% of primary school pupils—over 7,000 children—now need English language support, a 24% jump since 2020, per the Telegraph.

The most common languages are Arabic, Polish, Urdu, and Punjabi, reflecting waves of refugees from Syria, Ukraine, and Afghanistan alongside EU migration.

Council education chief Councillor Christina Cannon admitted, “We have seen an explosion in the number of children who need English as an additional language support.”

? Almost one in three pupils in Glasgow does not speak English as their main language, analysis shows

Take a look at our data-led study below ?https://t.co/6SWq10xVgh

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) December 1, 2025

She added, “This is putting huge pressure on our schools and teachers, who are doing an incredible job but are stretched thin.”

The report notes over 100 schools now have dedicated EAL coordinators, but funding lags behind demand, with one headteacher quoted anonymously, “We’re using Google Translate for parent meetings—it’s not sustainable, and kids are falling behind in core subjects.”

Glasgow’s transformation stems from Scotland’s “unprecedented” migration surge, with net inflows topping 50,000 yearly since 2022, driven by asylum seekers, refugees, and post-Brexit EU arrivals, per National Records of Scotland.

The city, Scotland’s largest, absorbed 10,000 asylum seekers in 2024 alone under SNP policies, overwhelming housing and education. As the Telegraph details, this has led to “language silos” in neighborhoods like Pollokshields, where Arabic dominates, and parents report “parallel societies” forming.

Over time would take generations not 2 years

— darran (@gynoshwad) December 2, 2025

SNP education secretary Jenny Gilruth stated “Migration is a good thing for Scotland’s economy, but we need better funding for integration programs.” Critics like Tory MSP Murdo Fraser counter, “The SNP’s open-door policy is creating ghettos—schools can’t cope without massive investment.”

Residents in Glasgow’s ‘diverse’ east end express growing concern over cultural divides. One mother, speaking to the Telegraph, said, “My son’s class has 15 different languages—it’s wonderful in theory, but he’s struggling because the teacher spends half the day translating.”

A local teacher added, “We’re seeing cliques based on language, not ability—it’s dividing kids before they start.”

When 3 in 10 pupils can’t speak English as a first language, that’s not “diversity” — it’s the result of an immigration system totally out of control.
Schools can’t teach properly, standards drop, and integration becomes impossible.
This isn’t sustainable, and everyone knows it.

— Ben Crichton (@Bencrichton_3) December 2, 2025

Fraser further warns that “Without urgent action, we’ll see more ‘parallel societies’ like in parts of London, where integration fails and tensions rise.”

The report ties this to national trends, with 20% of England’s pupils needing EAL support, but Glasgow’s 31% rate is among the highest, straining a system already short 1,000 teachers.

The data isn’t just numbers—it’s a wake-up call for a city transformed by migration without the infrastructure to match. As Cannon urges, “We need ring-fenced funding now, or our schools will break.” With SNP ministers promising reviews but no immediate cash, Glasgow’s classrooms teeter on the brink, a microcosm of a much wider migration crisis.

If they don't have English as a first or main language, what are they learning and IMPORTANTLY, are allowances made for their lack of English, thus downgrading their qualifications?

— Matthew Harper No DMs – We're in big trouble (@MattHarperUK) December 2, 2025

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 06:30

"Power Up America" Needs 500,000 Highly Skilled Workers

We've already pointed out that money isn't the problem in America's unprecedented data center construction buildout. Big Tech's AI capex splurge is effectively endless thanks to "circle-jerk" vendor-financing schemes, and land is plentiful.

The real bottleneck? First, it was power - or rather, the lack of it - as the grid struggles to hook up hyperscalers sprinting toward ever larger and more power-hungry AI server racks.

True.

That is why Bitcoin is based on energy: you can issue fake fiat currency, and every government in history has done so, but it is impossible to fake energy.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 14, 2025

Beyond a power grid already stretched thin due to limited capacity, the Trump administration is now scrambling to fix this with an accelerated nuclear push before the 2030s. We've identified another problem that central bankers can't print their way out of: skilled labor. And no, we're not talking about the need for cheap, unskilled migrant labor. We're talking about a highly skilled workforce required to build, run, and maintain data centers, as well as expand the power grid and operate nuclear power plants. 

Wow:

"In 2025-28, we project ~57 gigawatts (GW) of US data center power demand, and we quantify available power capacity to serve this demand as: near-term grid access of ~12-15 GW, plus ~6 GW of data centers under construction, resulting in a ~36 GW shortfall of US power… pic.twitter.com/4PArdYY9qO

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 16, 2024

In early October, Goldman noted that data center buildouts will require an additional 300,000 workers across manufacturing, construction, and operations to meet power demand by the end of the decade.

And then there is the issue of where the US gets 300,000 engineers to build all this missing power supply by 2030 https://t.co/a18crhqZ4v pic.twitter.com/tinW8SHDwM

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 14, 2025

Now, Goldman analysts led by Carly Davenport are telling clients that the power industry will need over 500,000 new workers by 2030 to meet the surging electricity demand from data centers and the broader economy-wide electrification push.

Davenport explained:

"The US power industry is poised to require >500,000 new workers by 2030 or a significant acceleration in labor productivity. This growth enters a labor force already facing strain from aging and a limited pipeline of skilled labor. Labor-demand challenges to meet levels of US power-demand growth not seen since the 1990s are rising amid the Demographic Dilemma — a shrinking productive labor pool tasked to support an aging population — which raises the risk of G7 labor-force strains. This is elevating investor/corporate debates on industry execution and whether/when rising power, equipment, and labor costs could constrain growth."

Generational growth to achieve 2.6% CAGR in electricity demand through 2030 could require ~510,000 US power and grid jobs (a 28% increase versus the 2023 US energy workforce).

"We estimate the need for ~300,000 incremental jobs across manufacturing, construction, and operations/maintenance (Exhibit 10)…

…plus an additional 207,000 across US transmission and distribution (Exhibit 11)."

What's critical to understand is that the trillions in investment flooding into the economy through the 2030s will require far more than steel, concrete, silicon chips, and copper wire. They will demand a massive expansion of highly skilled workers.

Right now, there is a terrible oversupply of college-educated workers and a deepening shortage of talent for non-degree, hands-on jobs - a widening gap highlighted in a recent Goldman note by analyst Evan Tylenda.

Our advice for young people struggling to find a real job: ditch the useless gender-studies degree and learn a trade that's becoming increasingly valuable to "Powering America." For college students who haven't been brainwashed by Marxism and wokism, aim for fields that will actually matter, such as engineering, energy systems, and nuclear science - all of which will be in red-hot demand in the 2030s.

The labor market is shifting fast. It's time to move with it and choose a career that won't be automated into oblivion anytime soon.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 21:20

Why Healthcare Is In A Death Spiral: Follow The Money

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

If each of these is not a part of any 'reform,' than all that is being done is pouring money into a monopolizing cartel, just in a slightly different way.

Unbeknownst to those of us with little inside knowledge of the complex financial plumbing of the US healthcare system, healthcare is in a death spiral that will surprise everyone but insiders who grasp the system's unsustainability.

To help us outsiders understand the death spiral, I asked a senior MD to guide us through "follow the money."

Trump Blasts "Big, Fat, Rich Insurance Companies" As Lawmakers Propose Ways To 'Fix' Obamacare.

Since this is the issue of the day and it falls within my expertise, here are some thoughts.

Executive Summary

Multiple conditions are aligning for a broad re-alignment of medical care delivery in the US, resulting in the development of a two-tiered delivery model: high-quality, efficient, innovating cash-pay for those who can pay and low-quality, wait-rationed care delivery for those who can't.

If you can't afford it, don't get sick.

Health systems make their money through inflated commercial real estate (CRE), sale of patient health information (PHI), consolidation of supply chains, and kickbacks in exchange for redirecting federal dollars. Absent a tiny sliver of procedures, the delivery of healthcare itself is a loss leader. It is a requirement for entry, not a source of value. As such, care delivery managed to prevent loss, not promote innovation.

Most health system CEOs are financial engineers, not care delivery specialists, and compare the size of their real estate management infrastructure with their care delivery management infrastructure; the former is always much more robust than the latter.

Insurers have become utilities, administering government payment programs. Their ability to bear risk as a business model was discarded with the ACA; they no longer have the infrastructure or talent to do so. You might as well ask them to make shoes.

This monoculture, the corruption of monopoly and finally the response to the pandemic has crippled both.

Health systems faced a profound interruption in throughput which they dealt with by tapping reserves, inflating CRE further, pushing the boundaries of PHI sales, increasing their kickback programs, and, most importantly, becoming fully dependent on the now ending government bailouts.

Further consolidation and partnering with private money is their only path forward. Recent experience teaches that the private money will cut the delivery of healthcare to the bare minimum needed to maximize the other sources of value. A whole lot of administrators and c-suiters are also going to lose their jobs.

After the ACA, the Insurer's only cash cow was the immensely overfunded and fraud-filled Value-Based Care (VBC) Medicare and Medicaid programs such as Medicare Advantage. The fraud is now being criminally prosecuted, the overpayments are gone, and the cost of care delayed during the pandemic and which the insurers now bear are being realized manifold.

Insurers simply have no path forward other than as payment administrators. Look for massive consolidation, starting with the individual Blues. The government has been resistant, but now it's a choice of merger or bankruptcy. In 2028 probably only Coventry, United, and Centene will be left standing, no more blues.

The ACA itself is in a death spiral. Envisioned as a universal mandatory risk pool, so many exceptions have been made that only the sickest and those who have no choice get their care there, the former being subsidized by the latter, the government, and ever dwindling coverage. The pandemic subsidies masked it and without them the coverage is non-sensical. Non-participation will be its end.

In addition, government medical care programs have long been subsidized by suppressing payment for the resources used to obtain care delivery; clinicians, labor, administration, and even bedpans. Real wages for even the highest paying doctors working within the system haven't increased since 2010, nursing wages have gone up only because so many have become free-lancing agency workers. I got offered a locums position for $145/hour, the same as I was offered 8 years ago.

All those resources are now worth more outside the system than inside. Thus, those resources are migrating to the cash-pay market. Used to be the huge government market and dependable payments was enough to overcome the difference in value between the two markets, cash vs third party. No longer.

The legacy costs, management/leadership expertise and business models of current Fee For Service (FFS) health systems preclude all but the most highly branded health systems from competing in the cash-pay model.

Access to the cash-pay market will vary based on jurisdiction: it's illegal in some states, hamstrung by others, free in still more.

Look for policy to evolve into a high-dollar, deductible, roll-over Health Savings Account (HSA) with income-based subsidies paired with a government subsidized catastrophic care program. At least until the young and disaffected elect a socialist.

A $2,000 direct payment to beneficiaries such as being currently contemplated is completely ineffectual, especially since it has to be borrowed and will just increase inflation that much further.

True reform must include:

1.Invalidation of state and federal laws which restrict cash-pay.

2. Prohibition of not-for-profit (NFP) / Religious organizations from third-party payment programs. The competitive advantage of the tax-free business model and the inherent corruption it has engendered render their participation not in the public interest.

3. Removal of restrictions on clinician ownership in healthcare delivery.

4. Renewed criminal anti-trust enforcement in medical care delivery.

Others can be added, but if each of these is not a part of any 'reform,' than all that is being done is pouring money into a monopolizing cartel, just in a slightly different way.

No improvement will occur.

It's not payments which need reform, it's delivery.

And a lot of folks' paychecks depend on obfuscating that fact.

Thank you, senior MD for the guided tour of healthcare's financial death spiral. I have long stated that healthcare in its current extractive-cartel form will bankrupt the nation all by itself:

Why America's Healthcare (Sickcare) System Is Broken and Unfixable (July 16, 2014)

Sickcare Will Bankrupt the Nation (March 21, 2011)

My questions:

1. Is any of this financial plumbing actually private insurance, or is it all just sluicing government funding through a profitable skimming operation?

2. How can a 'healthcare' system that refuses to connect digital derangement, ultra-processed diet and poor fitness to 'health' possibly generate 'health' as an output?

These questions are taboo because the answers would implode the entire system.

Medicare costs: parabolic:

Medicaid costs: parabolic:

*  *  *

My new book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free)

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/02/2025 - 20:55