Dept Of Defense Tells Commanders To Identify Troops With Gender Dysphoria

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Defense has directed commanders to identify service members with a history of gender dysphoria who have not come forward under a new policy that bans transgender troops.

“Commanders who are aware of Service members in their units with gender dysphoria, a history of gender dysphoria, or symptoms consistent with gender dysphoria will direct individualized medical record reviews of such Service members to confirm compliance with medical standards” under the military’s readiness program, Jules W. Hurst III, a Pentagon official, wrote in a memorandum dated May 15.

President Donald Trump has said that people who express a “false ‘gender identity’” cannot meet the standards for military service, and defense officials later promulgated a new policy that bars troops who have or are experiencing gender dysphoria from serving.

At least some of the troops with gender dysphoria, which refers to when people believe they’re a gender that does not match their sex, are undergoing or have completed transgender procedures in an attempt to alter their gender..

The Supreme Court recently stayed a district court order that had been blocking the policy. 

Officials said on May 8 that about 1,000 members have come forward to identify themselves as having gender dysphoria.

Active-duty troops have until June 6 to identify themselves as being unable to serve due to gender dysphoria. The deadline is July 7 for reserves.

During that period, military departments will seek to identify affected troops who choose not to identify themselves, a senior defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters in a call on May 15.

“Commanders who are aware of service members in their units who meet the criteria of this policy will direct individualized medical record reviews. Any individuals who meet the criteria of the policy and do not voluntarily identify themselves and go through the voluntary separation process will be processed involuntarily unless they are granted a waiver,” the official added later.

Troops who are involuntarily separated may lose certain benefits that they would receive if they come forward, according to the Department of Defense.

An estimated 4,200 troops have gender dysphoria. The force has about 2.1 million troops.

The military uses its readiness program to make sure troops are qualified and fit for duty. Medical evaluations are done through the program periodically, including an annual health screening.

When asked about concerns that commanders could abuse the process, the official told reporters in the call that leaders are confident in commanders’ exercising their discretion and protecting the privacy of troop health information.

“Any negative action that they would take to one of their assigned service members that would be retaliatory would be completely unacceptable regardless of whether it concerned this policy or any other policy,” the official added later.

Troops who are discharged under the new policy are eligible for up to $125,000 in separation payments, depending on their rank and how long they’ve been serving.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 12:05

FBI ID's 'Pro-Mortalist' Suspect Shredded In Bombing Of Palm Springs Fertility Clinic

The FBI has identified the suspect in Saturday's powerful car-bombing of a Palm Springs fertility clinic as 25-year-old Guy Edward Bartkus, a man who held an odd set of beliefs about humanity and other sentient life forms. Officials say Bartkus was fatally torn to shreds, and classified his attack as an act of terrorism.

The FBI says Bartkus, who embraced "pro-mortalism" and "anti-natalism," tried to livestream the bombing

While investigators are still working to fully confirm it was the work of Bartkus, they believe he foreshadowed his attack in a manifesto he posted to the internet, along with a 30-minute audio recording. Bartkus was an adherent to a strange philosophy called "pro-mortalism," which encourages the extinction of humanity and other sentient beings to preclude the suffering associated with life. Hand in hand with that belief goes Bartkus' embrace of "anti-natalism," which argues that nobody should have children -- a belief that bears directly on his targeting of a fertility clinic.  

Doing his part to advance pro-mortalism: This hearty slab o' beef is believed to be the torso of Bartkus (via @_Mnimasworld)

In the half-hour-long audio file saved under the title "pre," the calmly-speaking and occasionally-chuckling narrator believed to be Bartkus says: 

“Ooookay, I figured I would just make a recording explaining why I’ve decided to bomb an [in vitro fertilization] building or clinic. Basically, it just comes down to I’m angry that I exist and that, you know, nobody got my consent to bring me here. And I know what you're going to say: 'How could we have gotten your consent, because you didn't exist, blah, blah, blah.' Exactly the point. There's no way you can get consent to bring someone here, so don't fucking do it."         ...   

"Obviously, I'm very against [IVF]. It's extremely wrong. I mean, these are people who are having kids after they've sat there and thought about it. How much more stupid can it get?...I guess you can make the argument 'well at least they're thinking about it'...Yeah, that is something I guess, but at the same time, again, you still can't get the [infant's] goddam consent, you're not getting around that argument...basically, I'm anti-life. And IVF is kind of the epitome of pro-life ideology, so fuck IVF, fuck IVF clinics, and fuck the people that work for them, quite frankly."

BOMBING: This is an audio recording of Guy Edward Bartkus' manifesto. Bartkus was the Palm Springs Fertility Clinic Bomber. pic.twitter.com/WNtDgYGHVo

— @amuse (@amuse) May 18, 2025

The audio recording also likens giving birth to raping an unconscious woman, as neither the woman nor the unborn child is capable of granting consent. The speaker says he has some reluctance about the term "pro-mortalism," because some might misinterpret it as being sadistically "pro-dying;" he emphasizes that it means he's "pro-non-existence." The narrator argues that "parents are the real killers" because "they're the ones making you exist in the first place, which then guarantees a death." He says pro-mortalists encourage that guaranteed death to happen sooner than later so the individual "experience[s] less of life's bullshit."  

The manifesto referred to the homicide of his best friend, someone identified as "Sophie." It seems Sophie shared Bartkus' beliefs: Investigators say she convinced her boyfriend to shoot her in the head as she slept. He was charged with second-degree murder.  “We had agreed… if one of us died, the other would probably follow,” the manifesto read. 

Investigators comb through the wreckage at the American Reproductive Centers clinic in Palm Springs (Reuters / David Swanson)

In its initial report on the bombing, the New York Times used four paragraphs to allude to the possibility that the bombing was the work of conservatives, noting that "many Christian conservatives who oppose abortion also oppose I.V.F. because they do not support the loss of embryos, which they consider people." Bartkus clearly didn't match the Times' roundabout suggestion. However, social media users trying to tether Bartkus to the "extreme left" seem almost as baseless. Indeed, there's no indication yet of Bartkus being aligned with any mainstream political movements or candidates.

He was dismembered when a powerful bomb in his silver 2010 Ford Fusion exploded around 11am local time Saturday -- when the American Reproductive Centers clinic was closed; four bystanders suffered minor injuries and none are hospitalized. While the clinic suffered major damage to its offices and patient-consultation spaces, the IVF lab and its stored embryos went unscathed. Investigators say Bartkus intended to livestream the explosion, going so far as to set up a tripod and camera. However, the video never uploaded to the web. 

Bartkus, who lived about 60 miles away in Twentynine Palms, had been coping with depression and some sort of personal relationship struggles, according to law enforcement sources that spoke to NBC News. It's not yet been reported if, like so many other mentally-troubled people who lash out violently, Bartkus was taking SSRI antidepressant drugs. Neighbors told the Los Angeles Times they hadn't seen anyone in his residence for months. “It’s a bit unsettling to know our neighbor was doing something so evil," said Jeanette Hogan, who lives directly across the street. 

Neighbors were evacuated when police executed a search warrant at Bartkus' home in Twentynine Palms (Gina Ferazzi via LA Times)

The suspect's 75-year-old father, Richard Bartkus, told KTLA 5 News that he hadn't seen his son in 11 years. He described him as having been a "smart, good kid" who'd set fire to the family home as he played with matches at an unspecified age. “After he had burned the house down, he started changing a little bit, he’d light fires,” his father said, choking back tears. “I was too strict for him, so he wanted to stay with Mom until the divorce came through. Mom was lenient.” He said his son was fascinated by making model rockets and smoke bombs -- a fascination he apparently put to work in building a powerful bomb used against the fertility clinic.  

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 11:45

Texas House OKs Bill To Sue Vaccine Makers for False Ads

Authored by Jon Fleetwood via substack,

In a major victory for accountability and informed consent, the Texas House of Representatives passed HB 3441 yesterday, a bill that would allow Texans to sue vaccine manufacturers whose advertising leads to injury or harm.

The unprecedented move comes as CDC data show there have been an alarming 2,665,796 adverse events linked to vaccines since 1990, the vast majority related to COVID-19 jabs.

But if fewer than 1% of adverse events are reported - as a 2010 HHS-funded Harvard analysis confirms - the real number could exceed 266 million, or roughly 7.6 million per year, or 20,800 per day.

First filed in February, the new bill passed yesterday by a vote of 88–31, moving the legislation one step closer to becoming law.

The pioneering legislation boasts a whopping 79 brave sponsors, 74 Republicans and 5 Democrats.

The bill is spearheaded by Representatives Shelley Luther (R-62), Jeff Leach (R-67), Marc LaHood (R-121), Oscar Longoria (D-35), and Mike Schofield (R-132).

If you want this kind of bill passed in your state or at the federal level, you can find your local, state, and U.S. representatives here and let them know.

What the Bill Does

Texas House Bill 3441, titled “Relating to the liability of vaccine manufacturers that advertise a harmful vaccine,” holds pharmaceutical companies liable if:

• They advertise a vaccine in Texas through paid promotion, and

• That advertised vaccine causes injury or harm to an individual.

In short: if a vaccine manufacturer pushes a product through ads—and that product ends up causing harm—they can be sued for it in court.

The bill defines “advertising” broadly to include:

• Television and radio ads

• Print media and digital media

• Product placements and influencer promotions

But excludes materials inside a clinical setting or direct conversations between doctors and patients.

Legal Ramifications

HB 3441 creates a clear legal pathway for Texans to bring a civil action against vaccine manufacturers—up to three years after the injury occurs.

If the injured party prevails in court, the manufacturer is required to pay:

• Actual damages

• Court costs

• Attorney’s fees

Why This Matters

For decades, vaccine manufacturers have enjoyed near-total immunity from liability thanks to federal protections under the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986 and the PREP Act.

But HB 3441 cuts through that shield—not by targeting the product itself, but by going after the promotional lies used to sell it.

Cleverly, the bill’s authors appear to be leveraging the advertising hook as a legal workaround to federal immunity, holding companies accountable for the claims they make, not merely the product they produce.

This represents a massive legal shift.

If HB 3441 becomes law, Texas could become the first state in the nation to strip vaccine manufacturers of their immunity—at least when it comes to deceptive advertising that leads to harm.

What’s Next

The bill is now classified as “engrossed,” meaning it’s cleared the House and is headed to the Texas Senate for consideration. If it passes the Senate and is signed by the governor, it will go into effect on September 1, 2025.

Bottom Line

The message from Texas lawmakers is clear: If you lied in your ad and your shot injured someone - get ready to pay up.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 11:25

Germany Makes "Sea-Change Policy Shift" On Nuclear Power In Europe

Three weeks after widespread power grid failures across Portugal and Spain, triggered by unreliable solar and wind power, Germany appears to be sharply recalibrating its energy stance. 

In a notable policy shift, the new conservative government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz has reversed its longstanding opposition to nuclear power. The move reflects a growing understanding in Berlin that overreliance on unreliable solar and wind power generation poses serious risks to economic stability and energy security. The shift also signals a broader return to common-sense energy policymaking in Europe, with nuclear power increasingly viewed as critical in France in achieving reliable, low-carbon power generation.

The Financial Times reports that German officials have informed Paris they will no longer oppose French efforts to have nuclear energy recognized as equivalent to renewables in EU legislation. This marks a significant policy shift, considering former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had firmly opposed treating nuclear power on the same level as solar and wind in the EU's framework for achieving net zero by 2050.

"The Germans are telling us: we will be very pragmatic on the issue of nuclear power," an anonymous French diplomat told the FT, which was involved in the talks with the Germans. The person said this means that "all the biases against nuclear power, which still remain here and there in EU legislation, will be removed."

"This will be a sea-change policy shift," said a German official.

Guntram Wolff, a senior fellow at think-tank Bruegel, said, "It's a welcome rapprochement that will make the topic of energy easier in the EU," adding, "Politically, Merz is also thinking about the nuclear umbrella."

Berlin's reversal on nuclear power comes three weeks after solar and wind collapsed the power grids across Portugal and Spain. 

Europe's dangerous and radical shift to unreliable net-zero energy has been nothing short of a disaster and an embarrassment for the far-left liberals high in their castles in Brussels. 

Merz has clearly recognized the urgent need to reverse degrowth net-zero policies. He also understands the strategic urgency of revitalizing Franco-German cooperation—a prerequisite for unlocking stalled EU-level decision-making under former Chancellor Scholz.

"When France and Germany agree, it is much easier for Europe to move forward," said Lars-Hendrik Röller, a professor at Berlin-based ESMT business school who was chief economic adviser to former Chancellor Angela Merkel, adding, "While several challenges remain, I believe this issue will be solved."

Last week, FT obtained a letter sent to the European Commission by ministers from 12 European member states explaining that it was "imperative" that Brussels acknowledge the "complementary nature of nuclear and renewable energy sources."

The new Franco-German policy shift on energy is critical for Europe to get its house in order, considering NatGas prices have surged since the Ukraine-Russia war, making manufacturing uncompetitive on global markets because inputs have driven up prices of end products (such as automobiles). Solar and wind trends have also created instability in the power grid, which is a national security threat.

It's encouraging to see that Germany has finally acknowledged what has long been clear: a stable, reliable path to net-zero requires nuclear power. ZeroHedge readers have been well ahead of this theme since December 2020. More details here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 11:05

 

 

There have been many winners and losers over the past few months. Perhaps none have been revealed for having furious, unbridled power than the US equity markets. That’s right, it was not Carville’s Bond Market that made the White House cry “Uncle!” but rather, it was the US equities market.

Its naked power and abilities to inspire fear, panic, and even terror are unsurpassed. Bonds might drive the intellectual debate around policy, but it’s the equity markets that politicians pay closest attention to…

Allow me to share three historical examples:

October 2008: The month following Lehman Brothers’ September 2008 blowup, then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified to the Committee on the Budget on Monday, October 20, 2008. He reminded the House members that the Federal Reserve’s charter was to maintain high employment and low inflation. The Fed, he reminded us,  was not authorized to manage the stability of the financial system or keep credit markets flowing and unfrozen; it was not the FOMC’s charge to address any of the myriad issues that had endangered the financial system’s functioning.

A fiery speech from someone (was it Ron or Rand Paul?) led to a vote against Bernanke’s funding and authority request. He would not be getting the tools necessary to unfreeze credit and keep the banking system operating.

Sayeth Mr. Market: “Hold My Beer.”

The sell-off began immediately after the vote;1 over the next five trading days, the S&P 500 fell 13.9%, the Nasdaq was right behind it at 13.5%, and the Russell 2000 crashed 18%. ALL IN ONE WEEK.

Congress reconvened and passed both the necessary authority and the dollars that the Fed chairman had requested. By November 4th, all of the losses had been made up and then some.

Don’t fix the credit markets, and put corporate revenue and payrolls at risk?

FAFO.

March 2020: The first hint I had that something was amiss occurred in February 2020. My sister and I were looking at assisted living facilities for my mom. “As long as I’m out here, why don’t we swing by Target to pick up a few things.” She was visiting the ‘burbs from the New York City apartment they moved to once the kids went off to college.

Target was out of hand sanitizer, many cleaning products, Lysol, and rubbing alcohol; they were completely sold out of bleach, and, of course, there wasn’t a single piece of toilet paper to be found. (Strange things were afoot at the Circle-K).

A few weeks later, Congress was debating the renaming of a Washington, D.C. library. The back-and-forth on C-SPAN was as tedious as it was unproductive. (Stalemate, nothing done.) It reminds one of the old joke, “Why are academic politics so vicious? Because the stakes are so low and the issues so unimportant.”

March 11, 2020, a day after the Congress critters couldn’t agree on renaming a library, it became apparent that this was no ordinary flu. There were numerous events throughout the day that were concerning, but once the NBA game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the visiting Utah Jazz was cancelled — Jazz center Rudy Gobert had tested positive for COVID-19 — things got bad fast.

All hell broke loose the next day. This set the stage for the lockdowns to begin in earnest and tipped the global economy into shutdown mode.

Then came one of the fastest sell-offs of all time, a decline of 34% in just 17 trading days.

Congress, under then-President Trump (45), soon passed the CARES Act. It was the single largest fiscal stimulus at 10% of GDP since World War 2. This $2 trillion legislation was soon followed by the CARES Act 2 ($800 billion), also under Trump. Not long after President Biden (46) was elected, he passed the CARES Act 3, another trillion-dollar bill.2

That fiscal stimulus turned what looked like another GFC crash into a robust recovery and rally once the government acted. Markets rose 69% from their March 2020 pandemic lows to the end of 2020; they gained another 28% in 2021.

Feel free to debate renaming libraries or taking down statues all you want, but close the global economy in a way that dramatically slashes corporate revenue and profits without addressing the impact of what you’ve done?

Good luck, Chuck!

April 2025: President Trump campaigned on instituting tariffs; instituted a variety of tariffs in his first term; called himself “Tariff Man,” and said, “Tariffs are the most beautiful word in the dictionary.”

So why was the market so surprised by the April 2nd “Liberation Day” announcements? Two reasons: First was the sheer size and scope of the tariffs. But don’t overlook the opaque and ham-fisted communications strategy that accompanied them.

Prior tariffs had been in a 10-20% range; 100% tariffs applied to 182 countries worldwide – and Antarctica! – It was simply a bridge too far. Markets are a future discounting mechanism for corporate revenues and profits, and the market calculated that a giant U.S. consumer VAT tax would reduce corporate revenues 10 to 20%, and profits 20 to 30% (or more).

Hence, the markets were priced at least 20% too high. A week later, the S&P 500 was down 12.4% from its March highs; the Nasdaq 100 sold off 13.6%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 was hit the hardest -14.1%.

This sent Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent into the Oval Office, pleading with POTUS to pause the tariffs for 90 days. If not, “You’ll be the next Hoover – or worse.”

The recovery began immediately. Five weeks later, all the post-liberation day losses had been recovered.

~~~

While everybody has been focused on the size of the tariffs, let’s discuss the communication strategy. A “compare & contrast” with how the Federal Reserve communicates changes in interest rate policy is instructive.

The Federal Reserve announces new policy leanings three to six months in advance. They discuss it each meeting, notifying stock and bond markets that a change is coming. They review the various data series they’re relying on (PCE vs CPI), they discuss changes in the economy, and we see the dot plot shift during a few meetings prior.

Then, a month or so before, the seven members of the Board of Governors and the twelve Federal Reserve district Presidents fan out to speak in various public forums. They speak at the Petroleum Club of Houston and the Economic Club in New York; they present at Stanford and Yale and everywhere in between.

Say what you will about the Federal Reserve, but they are transparent and informative and do not surprise markets.

“Hell hath no fury like a market surprised.”

Look, the rules here are pretty straightforward:

Show respect to the collective insight of the market when it comes to setting prices, integrating risk factors, and summarizing the crowd’s collective psychology. Recognize that current equity prices reflect the probabilities of corporate revenues and profits a year or so out, a future discounting mechanism times some multiple, which itself is driven primarily (but not exclusively) by collective investor/crowd sentiment.

If you imagine yourself more powerful than Mr. Market, take just him on directly. Imagine yourself as smarter, more powerful, able to direct events with greater alacrity and influence.

Surprise the markets and watch the results. You will quickly learn who is the market’s bitch.

James Carville famously said, “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”

Perhaps in his day, he was right.

But me?

When I die and am reincarnated, I want to come back as the U.S. equities markets…

“The stock market remains undefeated.”

 

 

See also:
The Stock Market Remains Undefeated: AN Interview with Barry Ritholtz
Wall Street Breakfast
Seeking Alpha, May 11, 2025

 

Previously:
What Are the Best & Worst-Case Tariff Scenarios? (April 15, 2025)

The Consequences of Chaos (April 7, 2025)

7 Increasing Probabilities of Error (February 24, 2025)

Why Macro Forecasting Is So Hard Impossible (April 24, 2025)

 

 

__________

1. Some years later, Bernanke disclosed that he had sent his wife to the bank to withdraw as much cash as she could before the system crashed completely.

2. President Biden also drove several other important fiscal legislation – the Infrastructure Bill, Semiconductor Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and others. These were primarily 10-year spending bills, reflecting his legislative priorities and/or attempt to Fight the spiking inflation caused by all three cares act fiscal stimulus. I don’t consider these a panic reaction to equity prices.

 

The post The Stock Market Remains Undefeated appeared first on The Big Picture.

For most people, 23andMe is synonymous with direct-to-consumer genomics. It isn’t DNA sequencing, it’s microarrays that are capable of detecting many annotated variants. As with all direct-to-consumer genomics, the cost to consumers was supposed to be subsidized by the aftermarket for genetic information. In the event, 23andMe declared bankruptcy recently, and there was a question […]

The post 23andMe resurrected appeared first on Angry Bear.

What Downgrade? Stocks & Bonds Surge Into The Green After Moody's Cut

Despte all the doomsaying and blame-scaping following Moody's downgrade late on Friday night, the market has well and truly shrugged off the FUD (for now).

US equity markets have ripped higher from the cash open with The Dow erasing all of the losses sine Friday's cash close...

2Y Treasury yields are now lower on the day also...

As we detailed here and here, this is not the end of the world.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 10:24

Key Events This Week: Big Beautiful Bill; Initial Claims, Home Sales And Fed Speakers Galore

As DB's Jim Reid writes in his weekly preview, "in terms of what the market has been through in recent weeks we could all do with a lie down and there are some hopes of that this week given the scarcity of front line data. However as we know the headlines will keep coming, especially with regards to trade."

Sure enough, it‘s likely that fiscal developments in Washington will take center stage with the House expected to vote on its reconciliation package this week just as Moody's removed the US's last remaining triple-A rating late on Friday night. As DB's economists discussed last week, though the specific components of additional tax cuts on top of the TCJA extension differed from what they had previously outlined, the JCT score of the Ways and Means mark-up was largely in line with top-line deficit assumptions. Assuming House Republicans are able to resolve their outstanding policy disagreements and vote on the tax package this week, the Senate will then start to mark up the bill, where even more policy disagreements await. One thing stands out though, and that is that at this stage there are no signs of any serious deficit restraint.

The flash global PMIs for May released on Thursday will be the main data focal point this week given that it should fully cover a period of trade uncertainty. European numbers are expected to edge up with US numbers broadly flat. Elsewhere inflation in Canada (tomorrow), the UK (Wednesday) and Japan (Friday - preview here) will be of note. Other things to watch are the RBA decision tomorrow, where DB expect a 25bps cut (preview here), the account of the April ECB decision, the German Ifo and US jobless claims, all on Thursday. 

This week’s jobless claims corresponds to payrolls survey week so it will allow banks to refine their current forecast for May. The full day-by-day week ahead is at the end as usual but there’s not a lot of high profile releases. There are though plenty of central bank speakers and these are also highlighted in that calendar. Many are speaking at the Atlanta Fed's annual Financial Markets Conference in Amelia Island, Florida which starts today through to Thursday. Other things to note are the UK-EU summit will be in London today. Then tomorrow, G7 finance ministers and central bankers convene in Canada (through May 22) and the EU's foreign and defence ministers meet in Brussels.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday May 19

• Data: US April leading index, China April retail sales, industrial production, home prices, property investment, Japan March Tertiary industry index
• Central banks: Fed's Bostic, Jefferson, Williams, Kashkari and Logan speak, ECB's Muller speaks
• Earnings: Trip.com, Ryanair
• Other: UK-EU summit in London

Tuesday May 20

• Data: US May Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates, Germany April PPI, Italy March current account balance, ECB March current account, Eurozone March construction output, May consumer confidence, Canada April CPI, Denmark Q1 GDP
• Central banks: Fed's Bostic, Barkin, Collins and Musalem speak, ECB's Wunsch, Cipollone and Knot speak, BoE's Pill speaks, RBA decision
• Earnings: Home Depot, Palo Alto Networks, Vodafone
• Other: G7 finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Canada (through May 22), EU's foreign and defence ministers meeting in Brussels

Wednesday May 21

• Data: UK April CPI, RPI, March house price index, Japan April trade balance
• Central banks: Fed's Hammack, Daly, Bostic, Barkin and Bowman speak, ECB's Lane and Guindos speak
• Earnings: TJX, Medtronic, Snowflake, Target, Baidu, SSE, XPeng, Marks & Spencer
• Auctions: US 20-yr Bonds ($16bn)

Thursday May 22

• Data: US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and the Eurozone May flash PMIs, US April Chicago Fed national activity index, existing home sales, May Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, UK April public finances, Japan March core machine orders, Germany May Ifo survey, France May business confidence, April retail sales, Canada April industrial product price index, raw materials price index
• Central banks: Fed's Williams speaks, ECB account of the April meeting, Holzmann, Vujcic, Elderson, Guindos, Escriva and Nagel speak, BoJ's Noguchi speaks, BoE's Pill, Breeden and Dhingra speak
• Earnings: Intuit, Analog Devices, Workday, Generali, Lenovo
• Auctions: US 10yr TIPS (reopening, $18bn)

Friday May 23

• Data: US April new home sales, May Kansas City Fed services activity, UK May GfK consumer confidence, April retail sales, Japan April national CPI, France May consumer confidence, Canada March retail sales
• Central banks: ECB's Lane speaks

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data releases this week are initial jobless claims on Thursday and new home sales on Friday. There are many speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including Chair Powell, Vice Chair Jefferson, and Governors Kugler and Cook.

Monday, May 19

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
• 08:30 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will give welcome remarks at the Atlanta Fed's "Financial Intermediation In Transition" conference in Fernandina Beach, Florida.
• 08:45 AM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will give keynote remarks at the Atlanta Fed's "Financial Intermediation In Transition" conference. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will moderate. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On May 14, Jefferson said that he will be "watching for signs that the labor market could cool as tariff increases," and that tariffs "are likely to interrupt progress on disinflation and generate at least a temporary rise in inflation." He later said that "With the increased risks to both sides of our mandate, I believe that the current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments."
• 08:45 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will speak in a moderated conversation at an event organized by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Q&A is expected. On April 11, Williams said, "The current modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy is entirely appropriate given the solid labor market and inflation still above our 2 percent goal." He added that the current stance of policy "gives us the opportunity to assess incoming data and developments and ultimately positions us well to adjust to changing circumstances that affect the achievement of our dual mandate goals."
• 01:15 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will give remarks and will moderate a panel titled "The increasing role of nonbank institutions in the Treasury and money markets" at the Atlanta Fed's "Financial Intermediation In Transition" conference. Speech text is expected. On April 10, Logan said, "To sustainably achieve both of our dual-mandate goals, it will be important to keep any tariff-related price increases from fostering more persistent inflation. For now, I believe the stance of monetary policy is well positioned."
• 01:30 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will take part in a moderated Q&A at the Minnesota Young American Leaders Program at the University of Minnesota. On April 22, Kashkari said that the two sides of the Fed's dual mandate are "in tension right now because of the nature of this policy change that’s hitting the economy." He also said that "There’s a very logical argument to be made that a tariff is a one-time increase in prices and then inflation should be low going forward. The challenge is that we’ve had four years of high inflation. So, with that backdrop, are we running the risk of allowing inflation expectations to become unanchored?"
• 02:45 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will be interviewed on Bloomberg TV.

Tuesday, May 20

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
• 09:00 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will give welcome remarks at the Atlanta Fed's "Financial Intermediation In Transition" conference.
• 09:00 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will give a speech at the Richmond Fed's Investing in Rural America Conference. Speech text is expected.
• 09:30 AM Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Susan Collins will host a Fed Listens event and offer brief remarks. Speech text is expected. On April 10, Collins said "Maintaining the current monetary policy stance seems appropriate for the time being, as we learn more about the scope of changes in government policy and their impact on the economy." She added that "It may still be appropriate to lower the federal funds rate later this year. But renewed price pressures could delay further policy normalization."
• 01:00 PM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak on the economy and monetary policy at the Economic Club of Minnesota. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On May 9, Musalem said, "It is possible that higher inflation will be short lived and mostly concentrated in the second half of 2025, [but]... It is equally likely that inflation could prove to be more persistent." He added that "The risks of higher and more persistent inflation are currently elevated because: the pre-tariff starting point for inflation is above target; the recent period of elevated inflation likely has raised the public’s sensitivity to it; some measures of inflation expectations have risen; and tariffs apply broadly to intermediate inputs, prompting global supply chains’ rearrangement."
• 05:00 PM Fed Governor Kugler speaks: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will give a commencement address at the Spring 2025 Berkeley Economics Commencement Ceremony. Speech text is expected. On May 12, Kugler said that, as a result of the effects of tariffs on the economy, "Ultimately, I see the U.S. as likely to experience lower growth and higher inflation."
• 07:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC non-voter) and San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speak: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will participate in a panel discussion moderated by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic at the Atlanta Fed's "Financial Intermediation In Transition" conference. On April 24, Hammack said, "I think it’s too soon [to make policy decisions]... We want to make sure we’re moving in the right direction, rather than moving quickly in the wrong direction." She added that "If we have clear and convincing data by June, then I think you’ll see the committee move, if we know which way is the right way to move at that point." On May 14, Daly said that policy is in a "good position" to respond to the evolving outlook, adding that when considering the path of policy, "patience is the word of the day."

Wednesday, May 21

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
• 12:15 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) and Fed Governor Bowman speak: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will participate in a Fed Listens event.

Thursday, May 22

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 17 (GS 230k, consensus 228k, last 229k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 10 (last 1,881k)
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, May preliminary (consensus 49.8, last 50.2); S&P Global US services PMI, May preliminary (consensus 51.1, last 50.8)
• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, April (GS -2.0%, consensus +2.7%, last -5.9%)
• 02:00 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks; New York Fed President John Williams will give keynote remarks at a New York Fed event. Speech text and Q&A are expected.

Friday, May 23

• 09:35 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) and Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC voter) speak: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will participate in a fireside chat on the Fed and the economy. Q&A is expected.
• 10:00 AM New home sales, April (GS -3.0%, consensus -4.7%, last +7.4%)
• 12:00 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech on financial stability at the Seventh Annual Women in Macro Conference. Speech text is expected. On May 9, Cook said, "I expect to see a drag on productivity in the near term stemming from the recent changes to trade policy and the related uncertainty [because]... uncertainty around trade policy is likely to reduce business investment going forward; protectionist trade policies, while intended to support domestic industries, may inadvertently lead to a less competitive environment, if they prop up less efficient firms; and any supply-chain disruptions resulting from the policy changes would make production slower and less efficient."

Source: BofA, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 10:15

Moody's Blues

By Philip Marey, Senior US strategist at Rabobank

On the same day that the fiscal hawks among the House Republicans blocked their own party’s tax and spending bill because it pushes up the budget deficit in the short run, Moody’s downgraded US government debt from Aaa to Aa1. Moody’s said that expanding budget deficits mean US government borrowing will rise at an accelerating rate, pushing interest rates up over the long term. In fact, Moody’s didn’t believe that any current budget proposals under consideration by lawmakers would do anything significant to reduce the persistent gap between government spending and revenues. According to the rating agency, successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs.

In November 2023, Moody’s lowered the US rating outlook to negative from stable while affirming the nation’s rating at Aaa, so the downgrade was just a matter of time. On Friday, Moody’s shifted its outlook on US debt to stable, noting the nation retains exceptional credit strength such as the size, resilience and dynamism of its economy and the role of the US dollar as global reserve currency. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in Meet the Press, on Sunday, said that Moody’s was a lagging indicator and that this has been caused by the Biden administration. After the downgrade, US treasury yields jumped from about 4.44% to almost 4.50% on Friday. This morning, it climbed further to 4.52%. Moody’s is the last of the three big rating agencies to downgrade US debt. Fitch downgraded the US in August 2023 by one level to AA+, and S&P was the first major credit agency to strip the US of its AAA rating back in 2011. Moody’s downgrade does not tell markets anything they did not know and in fact, recent movements in US treasury yields and the US dollar may be of more concern than the official downgrade by a rating agency.

Earlier on Friday, five Republican members of the House Budget Committee voted against advancing the “one big, beautiful bill”, four because they think it front-loads tax cuts in the next few years and delays spending cuts, causing a rise in the budget deficit in the short run. They want bigger cuts in social programs and a faster removal of clean-energy tax credits. On Sunday, the House Budget Committee resumed its session and finally approved the measure for floor action. The Republicans still hope to get the bill through the full House of Representatives before Memorial Day (May 26). Trump wants the bill passed by both the House and the Senate by Independence Day (July 4).

Week ahead

Today, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the US will be published. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks at the Atlanta Fed's "Financial Intermediation In Transition" conference in Florida. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson And Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan give keynote remarks at the same event. Probably more relevant for monetary policy is Bostic’s interview on Bloomberg TV today. In an interview released on Friday, Bostic said he expected only one rate cut this year, because the uncertainty about the economic outlook is unlikely to resolve itself quickly, and tariffs may put upward pressure on inflation. Elsewhere, New York Fed President John Williams speaks in a moderated conversation at an event organized by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will take part in a moderated Q&A at the University of Minnesota.

On Tuesday, the German PPI and the Canadian CPI for April will be released. Euro zone consumer confidence for May is also scheduled. ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch delivers a keynote speech, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone appears in pre-recorded video interview, and ECB's Knot presents DNB's Financial Stability Overview. Across the channel, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill also speaks. Across the pond, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin gives a speech at the Richmond Fed's Investing in Rural America Conference. Boston Fed President Susan Collins will host a Fed Listens event and offer brief remarks, but no discussion of current monetary policy and the outlook. More interesting is St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem’s speech on the economy and monetary policy at the Economic Club of Minnesota, including a Q&A.

On Wednesday, we get Japan’s trade balance for April, and the UK CPI and RPI for April. The ECB's Guindos presents the Financial Stability Review and ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane discusses "Negative interest rates and the impact of monetary policy," perhaps a bit academic at this time. ECB Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva speaks at an event near Madrid. In Florida, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack  participate in a panel discussion at the "Financial Intermediation In Transition" conference. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will participate in a Fed Listens event.

On Thursday, a lot of survey data for May will be published: the German Ifo index, the HCOB PMIs for manufacturing and services for the Euro zone and individual countries, and the S&P Global PMIs for manufacturing and services for the UK and the US. We also get US initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 17, and US existing home sales for April. The ECB publishes its account of the April 16-17 policy meeting.

We also get a lot of central bank speakers. Starting with the ECB, Governor Robert Holzmann delivers opening remarks at the OeNB conference on "Monetary policy and structural tectonic shifts." The ECB’s Vujcic delivers an introductory presentation on the topic: "In Uncharted Waters: Macroeconomic Prospects in the Conditions of a Trade War." ECB Executive Board member Frank Elderson gives a speech on World Biodiversity Day in Leiden, the Netherlands. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos and Spanish central-bank head Jose Luis Escriva speak at a conference on “Global Challenges for a New Era in Economics, Geopolitics.” Finally, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel holds a press conference with the German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil in Banff, Canada.

On behalf of the BoE, Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaks on a panel on "climate liquidity crisis – the rising financial risks of climate change," BoE rate-setter Swati Dhingra speaks on a panel titled "Made in the UK: trade and productivity in British firms 2005-2022," and BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill delivers keynote speech at Austrian central bank conference mentioned earlier.

On Friday, the ECB’s Philip Lane holds a lecture on “Inflation and disinflation in the euro area” at the European University Institute in Florence. On the other side of the Atlantic, Canadian retail sales for March and US new home sales for April will be published. New York Fed President John Williams will give keynote remarks at a New York Fed event. He will have a prepared text and there is a Q&A. By the end of the week, the House Republicans should pass their tax and spending bill in order to meet their self-imposed deadline.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 10:05

Late last Wednesday night, the Missouri Republican-controlled legislature overrode the will of the state’s voters by repealing the paid sick leave portion of Proposition A, a ballot measure passed with 58% support in the 2024 election. This short-sighted decision is a step backward for Missouri’s working families and a violation of the democratic process.

Workers will briefly enjoy the benefits of paid sick leave before it is taken away. On May 1, workers started earning one hour of paid sick leave for every 30 hours worked, and they will continue to accrue leave until the repeal takes effect on August 28. Within this period, someone working a full-time schedule would have earned 24 hours of sick leave. It is not immediately clear if those hours will be available for a workers’ use after August 28. Additionally, the legislation also amends the part of Proposition A that raised the minimum wage to $15 an hour and indexed it to inflation. While the minimum wage will remain at $15 an hour (where it has been since January 1), it will no longer be indexed to inflation—meaning inflation will eat away at the value of the state minimum wage in future years unless lawmakers (or voters) take action.

This legislation will cause meaningful harm to working families in Missouri. The Missouri Budget Project estimated that 728,000 Missouri private-sector workers did not have paid sick leave prior to the passage of Proposition A. Workers without paid sick days are mostly working in low-wage jobs, and Black and Hispanic workers are disproportionately overrepresented in the low-wage workforce.

The lack of paid sick leave erodes working families’ economic security and needlessly spreads illness. As EPI noted earlier this year, paid sick leave laws improve public health by reducing the spread of illness, and their costs to businesses are extremely modest—generally requiring no measurable change to business practices. Paid sick leave reduces job separation rates among women, which is good for family stability and suggests paid leave creates a more level playing field for all workers. EPI reports that “paid sick leave policies allow workers to not only maintain their employment but also add work hours, suggesting that such policies function as work support for workers earning low wages.”

This is not the first time Missouri’s legislature has rolled back benefits for workers that were already in place. In 2017, legislators undid St Louis’s local minimum wage, which had been set at $10 an hour, meaning the minimum wage reverted to the state minimum of $7.70 an hour after four months. Additionally, in 2021, Missouri legislators tried to block a voter-approved expansion of Medicaid only to be blocked by a judge.

The Missouri legislature’s repeated efforts to thwart the clearly expressed will of the voters is an example of the increasingly common practice of GOP-led states attempting to limit the capacity of voters to enact pro-worker changes through ballot measures. This follows a slew of progressive policy measures passed by referendum in 2024, including minimum wage increases and paid sick leave measures in Alaska and Missouri, expanded abortion rights in seven states (also including Missouri), and rejections of school vouchers in Colorado, Kentucky, and Nebraska.

This decision is a slap in the face to the 1.7 million Missourians who voted for the ballot measure in November 2024, and to all working families in the state. It is bad policy that will harm Missourians, provide no help to businesses, and further demonstrate that the Missouri legislature is not enacting policies that support working people’s interests.  

Supreme Court Weighs Trump's Birthright Citizenship Challenge

Authored by Stuart Liess via The Epoch Times,

The United States’ highest court this week seemed divided over whether lower court judges had overstepped their authority in blocking the Trump administration’s attempts to limit birthright citizenship.

Federal judges had put a nationwide block on President Donald Trump’s attempt to remove automatic citizenship status from children born in the United States to immigrants with noncitizen status.

The question at hand is whether the federal judges were allowed to do this. The Trump administration argues they do not, and have overstepped their jurisdiction in this matter.

The decision will also determine the limits of presidential power and whether a president can make such decisions, which will then determine the authority of judges in blocking Trump’s agenda on a much broader level in other cases where he is facing legal challenges.

The United States’ governance system is based on a series of checks and balances where the president enforces laws that Congress has made, and the Supreme Court interprets them and can even overrule them if it deems the laws unconstitutional.

Since Inauguration Day, Trump has signed 151 executive orders, which are directives by the president ordering the government to take specific actions. Their limitations, however, are that they cannot overrule existing federal law or statutes created by Congress.

President Joe Biden signed 162 executive orders during his term, and President Barack Obama signed 277 executive orders during his eight years of office. Trump signed a total of 220 during his entire first term.

Critics of Trump argue that he is overstepping his presidential authority on a number of decisions.

The president declared a national emergency on Jan. 20, vowing to solve the country’s illegal immigration crisis and fulfilling one of his campaign promises to stop an “invasion” at the border.

Trump has vowed to end “birth tourism,” in which he says illegal immigrants are giving birth in this country so that the children will be U.S. citizens.

According to Pew Research Center, the illegal immigrant population was at a 15-year high of 11 million in 2022, while border encounters have been soaring in recent years.

U.S. southern border apprehensions reached a high of 370,883 in December 2023, before dropping in 2024, according to Customs and Border Protection data.

The latest data recorded an 88 percent drop from the previous year, with 29,238 encounters in April this year falling from 247,929 around the same time in 2024.

Constitutional Reinterpretation

The 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution was ratified in 1868 in the aftermath of the Civil War, addressing the citizenship rights of American-born former slaves.

Then in 1898, the Supreme Court ruled in favour of Wong Kim Ark, who was born in the United States but was denied reentry after leaving to visit China. 

The justices said a child born in the United States became a citizen at birth. This set the precedent for birthright citizenship.

The United States is one of about 30 countries that currently offer automatic citizenship by birth. Neighbouring Canada and Mexico do the same.

Trump argues that the amendment was misinterpreted, and the act of birthright citizenship doesn’t necessarily apply to all children born in the United States, particularly immigrants who entered unlawfully or people on a temporary visa.

The statement from the Constitution in question reads: “All persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”

The president has argued that the phrase “the jurisdiction thereof” should be interpreted as meaning that the person has sworn allegiance to the country, and to qualify, one parent would need to be a U.S. citizen or a lawful permanent resident.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 09:46

I know of Phillip Longman more so from his authoring a couple books. One called “The Best Care Anywhere” about the Veterans Administration. This is an article about deregulation and what happens when private equity takes over. It is a good read. Deregulation and private equity have gutted the U.S. freight rail system—and with it, […]

The post Train Drain appeared first on Angry Bear.

House Republicans Advance Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill" After Weekend Of Negotiations

Following a Friday fracas on Capitol Hill which saw House Republicans fail to advance President Donald Trump's "big, beautiful bill" out of the House Budget Committee, Republicans on said Committee did just that after several GOP deficit hawks relented. And while the bill still has a couple of stops before it can hit the House Floor, passage to the Senate could come as early as the end of this week.

The measure passed narrowly, 17-16, with all Democrats opposed and four Republicans; Reps. Chip Roy of Texas, Ralph Norman of South Carolina, Andrew Clyde of Georgia, and Josh Brecheen of Oklahoma - voting "present" after voting "No" on the bill in a 16-21 vote just two days earlier. The sudden turnaround followed a weekend of furious negotiations that remain largely behind closed doors.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) met with fellow lawmakers shortly before Sunday’s vote and told reporters that there had been "some minor modifications," several sources posted on X. Johnson said the bill, which includes making Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent and reforming Medicaid, is now "on track" for a House floor vote toward the end of this week.

The vote was a big win for Johnson and Trump, coming just two days after Republican opposition torpedoed the bill’s first attempt at committee passage. Despite this procedural victory, the legislation must still clear the House Rules Committee and secure a vote on the House floor, where Republicans hold only a razor-thin majority, Axios reports.

Norman, one of the Republicans who shifted his position, said he was "excited about the changes" in the works for the bill.

Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-TX) confirmed during the Sunday night session that "most likely there would be some changes" to the measure before it reaches the floor - but he couldn’t comment on specifics or any side deals that might have been struck.

The panel’s reversal came after it initially rejected the legislation Friday, setting off a scramble to renegotiate terms with holdout Republicans. One of the most contentious elements has been the GOP’s proposed Medicaid overhaul, with conservatives pushing for deeper structural changes and moderates raising concerns about the political risks.

Even if the package passes the House, Senate Republicans are expected to propose their own revisions. To that end, Johnson has also been working to secure buy-in from blue state Republicans by exploring a compromise on the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap.

On Friday, Trump did his usual shit-talking to pressure Republicans into line - posting on Truth Social; “We don't need ‘GRANDSTANDERS’ in the Republican Party. STOP TALKING, AND GET IT DONE!”

*  *  *

You can support ZeroHedge by picking up a waxed canvas hat

Click hat... add to cart... check out... receive awesome hat... Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 07:44

What GAO Found Before certain Department of Defense (DOD) contracts can be closed, the Defense Contract Audit Agency (DCAA) audits contractors' incurred costs to ensure they are permissible under government regulations. Since fiscal year 2020, DCAA has used independent public accountants to perform certain incurred cost audits. However, DCAA largely eliminated its backlog of incurred cost audits by the end of fiscal year 2018, before using independent public accountants. This freed up resources for DCAA auditors to focus on other complex and higher risk audits—e.g., business system audits (see figure). DCAA officials attribute the elimination of DCAA's backlog to, in large part, its use of its risk-based sampling methodology, which reduced the number of audits required. Audits Completed by DCAA and Independent Public Accountants, Fiscal Years 2018 to 2023 In an October 2018 report to Congress, DCAA outlined its plan for using independent public accountants, though actual use has been less than intended. According to DCAA officials, the number of audits available to independent public accountants declined after DCAA revised its criteria for assigning audits to independent public accountants, and its risk-based sampling methodology in 2020. However, DCAA has not formally assessed its future use of independent public accountants, nor communicated its plans to Congress. This would help DCAA ensure it maintains an appropriate mix of DCAA auditors and independent public accountants—as called for in statute—and avoid future backlogs. Communicating its plan would help facilitate Congress's oversight role. GAO found that for a sample of 10 task orders, the award process helped ensure that independent public accountants met federal qualification requirements. DCAA also reviewed their work in accordance with quality assurance plans. However, DOD's Inspector General recently raised concerns about the quality and completeness of the independent public accountants' work products in its review. DCAA disagreed with the recommendations and said that the audits were based on sufficient evidence. GAO did not independently assess the Inspector General's findings or independent public accountants' audit work products. Why GAO Did This Study GAO's prior work found that DCAA faced challenges in conducting incurred cost audits in a timely manner. This led to a backlog and exposed the government to financial risk. Section 803 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018 directed DOD to use independent public accountants and DCAA to eliminate its backlog of incurred cost audits and maintain an appropriate mix of government and private sector capacity, among other things. The act includes a provision for GAO to evaluate DCAA's use of independent public accountants for incurred cost audits from fiscal years 2020 through 2023. This report assesses (1) the effect DCAA's use of independent public accountants has had on its ability to eliminate its backlog of incurred cost audits and conduct other types of audits; (2) the extent to which DCAA has planned for their future use; and (3) how DCAA provides oversight and assesses performance. To do this work, GAO interviewed DCAA officials and independent public accountants, analyzed agency data, and reviewed a nongeneralizable sample of 10 task orders covering 57 incurred cost audits.

Part One of this report is an introduction to Losses, Revenue, and Costs incurred by Rural Hospitals. I have broken the report up so as to allow a reader some time to absorb the information on Rural Hospitals. It is a bit lengthy although it does have numerous graphs and charts. The report itself was […]

The post Rural Hospitals Financial Losses, Closures, and Revenue appeared first on Angry Bear.

What GAO Found The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) included 21 energy tax expenditures— 20 credits and one deduction—that support greenhouse gas emission reduction and other goals. According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, the expenditures may result in at least $200 billion less revenue collected between 2022 and 2031. The tax expenditures—reductions in a taxpayer's liability or payments to the taxpayer resulting from exemptions and exclusions from taxation—cover a range of activities such as fuel production and residential energy efficiency upgrades. These expenditures vary as to when taxpayers may claim them, among other things. Many include novel features that distinguish them from other tax expenditures. For example, bonus provisions allow taxpayers to claim additional amounts for some tax expenditures if they meet certain requirements, such as using a certain amount of domestic content to construct a facility. Agencies, including the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), have made progress in implementing these tax expenditures. As of January 2025, the Department of the Treasury and IRS coordinated to draft and publish 18 of 23 (78 percent) proposed rules and 11 of 19 (58 percent) final rules IRS planned to publish. The total proposed rules do not equal the total final rules because Treasury and IRS can combine multiple proposed rules into final rules. IRS tax expenditure data were available internally as of January 2025 for six tax expenditures and IRS estimates data for an additional 11 will become available internally during 2025. GAO has consistently called for greater scrutiny of tax expenditures. For example, in 2005, GAO recommended that the Office of Management and Budget, in consultation with Treasury, produce a framework for reviewing the performance of tax expenditures. However, as of January 2025, the recommendation had not been implemented, limiting policymakers' ability to regularly review their effectiveness. GAO previously developed a framework for assessing tax expenditures and a fraud risk framework to help federal program managers strategically manage fraud risks. GAO applied these frameworks and other sources to provide policymakers with questions supporting evidence-based assessments for overseeing the IRA energy tax expenditures. For example: What evidence will agencies use to evaluate the tax expenditures? IRS generally collects only information needed to administer the tax code, so additional data may be needed for evaluation. In 2015, GAO recommended that Congress direct IRS to collect project-level data from taxpayers claiming two energy credits—which were extended under the IRA—to provide Congress with basic information about what projects have been supported. As of February 2025, Congress had not acted on that recommendation. How effectively are agencies identifying and mitigating fraud risks? The large amount of money available and the complexity of many of the IRA tax expenditures increase the risk of fraud. For example, in July 2024, IRS identified a scam in which unscrupulous tax return preparers led their clients to improperly claim IRA tax credits. Effective use of control activities may help IRS and other agencies detect and prevent similar fraudulent schemes. Why GAO Did This Study The IRA energy tax expenditures cover subjects including clean vehicles, electricity generation, and energy efficient buildings. They are ambitious in scale and scope, with potentially significant financial impacts. As such, GAO identified questions to support effective oversight related to performance evaluation and effective administration. Congress included a provision in the IRA for GAO to review the distribution and use of IRA funds. This report describes (1) selected features and effective dates of each IRA energy tax expenditure, (2) the implementation status and data availability of each IRA energy tax expenditure as of January 2025, and (3) questions to support policymaker oversight of the IRA energy tax expenditures. Information sources used by GAO include applicable federal laws, regulations, and guidance to identify and summarize features for each tax expenditure. GAO used its past reports related to tax expenditures and administration, and fraud risk management to develop questions to support oversight at this early stage of administering these tax expenditures. While this report reflects the tax expenditures' implementation status as of January 2025, the Unified Agenda of Federal Regulatory and Deregulatory Actions is expected to be published in spring 2025 and to provide more information on the current administration's regulatory and deregulatory plans going forward. Additionally, since GAO's review, there have been legislative proposals to limit some of these tax expenditures. For more information, contact Jessica Lucas-Judy at lucasjudyj@gao.gov.

What GAO Found Financial institutions' use of artificial intelligence (AI) presents both benefits and risks. AI is being applied in areas such as automated trading, credit decisions, and customer service (see figure). Benefits can include improved efficiency, reduced costs, and enhanced customer experience—such as more affordable personalized investment advice. However, AI also poses risks, including potentially biased lending decisions, data quality issues, privacy concerns, and new cybersecurity threats. Examples of Activities for Which Financial Institutions Use Artificial Intelligence Federal financial regulators primarily oversee AI using existing laws, regulations, guidance, and risk-based examinations. However, some regulators have issued AI-specific guidance, such as on AI use in lending, or conducted AI-focused examinations. Regulators told GAO they continue to assess AI risks and may refine guidance and update regulations to address emerging vulnerabilities. Unlike the other banking regulators, the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) does not have two key tools that could aid its oversight of credit unions' AI use. First, its model risk management guidance is limited in scope and detail and does not provide its staff or credit unions with sufficient detail on how credit unions should manage model risks, including AI models. Developing guidance that is more detailed and covers more models would strengthen NCUA's ability to address credit unions' AI-related risks. Second, NCUA lacks the authority to examine technology service providers, despite credit unions' increasing reliance on them for AI-driven services. GAO previously recommended that Congress consider granting NCUA this authority ( GAO-15-509 ), but as of February 2025, Congress had not yet done so. Such authority would enhance NCUA's ability to monitor and mitigate third-party risks, including those associated with AI-service providers. The federal financial regulators are increasingly integrating AI into their general agency operations and supervisory and market oversight activities, with usage varying across agencies. The regulators use AI to identify risks, support research, and detect potential legal violations, reporting errors, or outliers. Most regulators told GAO that AI outputs inform staff decisions but are not used as sole decision-making sources. Why GAO Did This Study AI generally entails machines doing tasks previously thought to require human intelligence. Its use in financial services has increased in recent years, driven by more advanced algorithms, increased data availability, and other factors. Federal financial regulators have also begun using AI tools to oversee regulated entities and financial markets. The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act includes a provision for GAO to annually report on financial services regulations. This report reviews (1) the benefits and risks of AI use in financial services, (2) federal financial regulators' oversight of AI use in financial services, and (3) the regulators' AI use in their supervisory and market oversight activities. GAO reviewed studies by federal agencies, academics, industry, and other groups; examined documentation and guidance from federal financial regulators; and interviewed regulators, consumer and industry groups, researchers, financial institutions, and technology providers.

Gee, “Whata Surprise” . . . There is no overwhelming Social Security Scandal or Fraud. A newly reported document shows that “anti-fraud checks” implemented at the Social Security agency found virtually no improper benefit claims. This find, while slowing payments substantially. ‘A Huge Scandal’: Internal Doc Exposes Trump-Musk Hunt for Social Security Fraud as a […]

The post No Social Security Scandal . . . Just Fake News . . . appeared first on Angry Bear.

Inside World Of High-Net-Worth Lending: Kevin Plank Pledges Georgetown Home For $15M Commercial Loan

Local Baltimore media outlets have reported that Under Armour founder Kevin Plank—who returned as CEO in April 2024—recently pledged his $2 million Georgetown rowhouse as collateral for a $15 million loan. Just three months earlier, Plank relisted his 400-acre equestrian farm in northern Baltimore County. At the time, we asked one very simple question: Is the billionaire CEO searching for liquidity?

The Baltimore Sun—once a far-left, woke newspaper but now showing signs of journalistic revival under new ownership—reported that the $15 million loan is intended to fund or acquire "a business or commercial investment." The paper cited a deed of trust filed last week in Washington, D.C.

"The document makes no mention of specific investments in the filing with the district's recorder of deeds," The Sun wrote, adding Plank "signed the deed on May 9 in a deal to borrow $15 million from Breezewood DE LLC, a Denver-based limited liability company." 

Shedding more light on the opaque world of high-net-worth lending—where anonymity and asset protection are often by design—a blog post from a local real estate team "Fox Homes Team" offers additional color, noting: 

At the center of this transaction is Breezewood DE LLC, a Wyoming-registered limited liability company with no clear public-facing identity. The LLC was formed by Kevin Walton, a Denver-based attorney with the law firm Snell & Wilmer. Curiously, the LLC's mailing address traces back to the accounting firm Eide Bailly, also located in Denver—a layered structure that hints at deliberate opacity and financial insulation. This isn't uncommon in the world of high-net-worth lending, where anonymity and asset protection are often baked into the very architecture of a deal.

What stands out most is the explicit wording in the deed: the loan is designated for "carrying on or acquiring a business or commercial investment." That leaves a wide interpretive window—one that's fueling curiosity across financial and real estate sectors. The ambiguity has sparked a flurry of speculation. Is this loan a vehicle for expanding Plank's private investment firm, Sagamore Ventures? Is it tied to Under Armour's restructuring strategy? Or is it a positioning move to take advantage of D.C.'s evolving commercial real estate lending climate in 2025?

Whatever the answer, the use of a historically significant Georgetown property as collateral signals more than liquidity needs—it's a sophisticated financial tactic. The property isn't just real estate; it's equity in motion. And in this context, Georgetown's value isn't merely aesthetic—it's fiscal leverage in one of the most discerning real estate markets in the nation.

The designation of the loan for "acquiring a business or commercial investment" suggests to us that it will be used for a financial transaction via Plank's Sagamore Ventures, a privately held investment company managed by the Plank family and J. Kelly Dayton. Plank's venture arm has diversified holdings in commercial real estate, hospitality, food, and beverage. 

Mapping Plank's empire via publicly available data:

At first glance, Plank's decision to collateralize his Georgetown home may seem unusual. But in reality, it's a common strategy among high-net-worth individuals looking to secure lower-cost financing—especially in today's environment of elevated interest rates, where swaps are only pricing in two 25-basis-point cuts by year-end.

Outside of whatever the Plank family may invest in next around the Baltimore metro area, the prospect of continuing to pour money into an imploding state—controlled by woke leftists in Annapolis—seems increasingly risky.

Decades of regime-style Democratic rule have culminated in a series of rolling crises: the first credit downgrade in half a century, massive deficits, violent crime, an energy crisis, homelessness, an opioid crisis, an illegal alien invasion, and a lopsided economy heavily dependent on government spending. Taken together, these issues risk transforming Maryland into "Illinois 2.0" by the end of the decade—triggering a deeper exodus of residents and businesses.

Last spring, Plank hosted a private fundraiser for far-left Governor Wes Moore—whose tenure has been nothing short of a disaster for Maryland.

We get that Plank and his inner circle have to play the game of local politics in a state run by Marxist Democrats. But seriously...

In markets, Under Armour is still undergoing a restructuring process, with shares down 19% (as of Friday's close) on the year.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 06:55

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

• The Stealthy Lab Cooking Up Amazon’s Secret Sauce: The online giant bought a mysterious chip startup 10 years ago. It now looks like one of the smartest deals in tech history. (Wall Street Journal)

• Warren Buffett Reveals He Stepped Down After Finally Feeling His Age: The legendary investor, 94, opens up about his decision to hand the top job to Greg Abel; ‘How do you know the day that you become old?’ (Wall Street Journal) see also  7 life lessons from Warren Buffett that have nothing to do with picking stocks: We all have the ability to emulate the Oracle of Omaha in the ways that really matter. (Marketwatch)

• Tariffs Won’t Reindustrialize America. Here’s What Will: To revive manufacturing the US needs to borrow from China’s playbook. (Businessweek)

• 4 Fund Fee Trends to Watch in 2025: What to make of Vanguard’s low-cost stronghold, new but expensive ETFs, and more. Investors continue to pour money into low-cost ETFs, but new ETFs are by and large high-fee. (Morningstar.com)

• Tipping Point: How America’s Gratuity System Got Out of Hand: From its shady roots to modern absurdities — why tipping culture in the U.S. needs a serious reckoning. (Scraps to Stacks)

• The Old Model of Billionaire Philanthropy Is Ending: The new generation of Silicon Valley elite is far less interested in giving away its wealth. (Bloomberg) but see The Rise of the Selfish Plutocrats: Instead of pursuing philanthropy, many now seek to evade social responsibility. (The Atlantic)

• AI is printing the rocket engine that could beat SpaceX at its own game: Leap 71 is developing AI to build rocket engines faster and cheaper than ever before. (Fast Company)

• Harvard Paid $27 for a Copy of Magna Carta. Surprise! It’s an Original. Two British academics discovered that a “copy” of the medieval text, held in Harvard Law School’s library for 80 years, is one of seven originals dating from 1300. (New York Times)

• Scientists in a race to discover why our Universe exists: The current theory of how the Universe came into being can’t explain the existence of the planets, stars and galaxies we see around us. Both teams are building detectors that study a sub-atomic particle called a neutrino in the hope of finding answers. (BBC)

• The Five Days That Destroyed the Celtics’ Dynasty: The Boston Celtics suffered a shocking playoff loss to the New York Knicks. Now they face impossible questions about how to keep one of basketball’s best teams together. (Wall Street Journal) see also The Knicks Have Been Bad-Luck Losers This Entire Century. Monday Night, It All Changed. When the Knicks beat the Boston Celtics in a pivotal playoff game, it didn’t win them the series. But it hinted at a major transformation for one of the longest-suffering franchises in pro sports. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Master’s in Business with John Montgomery, founder and CEO of Bridgeway Capital.  The firm, which was founded in 1993, manages ~$5B in assets; they have become known for donating 50% of their annual company profits to non-profit organizations.

 

Oil Reserves and Oil Production

Source: Information Is Beautiful

 

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