John Mearsheimer: Why Diplomacy Is Going Nowhere & Ukraine Is Doomed

With Zelensky having much-belatedly dropped aspirations for Ukraine's NATO membership, European officials are now openly admitting what pretty much everyone knew but was afraid to say.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas has newly acknowledged in fresh remarks that Ukraine's membership in the military alliance is now obviously "out of the question" - but that the European Union now needs to provide concrete security guarantees.

"Now if this [Ukraine’s NATO membership] is not in question, or this is out of the question, then we need to see what are the security guarantees that are tangible. They can’t be papers, or promises, they have to be real troops, real capabilities," she told reporters ahead of an EU Foreign Ministers meeting.

Kallas asserted that "in the last 100 years, Russia has attacked at least 19 countries," and so this means "the security guarantees are needed for all other members" in the EU.

Image via European Union

Europe is likely still going to propose some scheme not acceptable to Moscow, such as "Article 5-style" security guarantees, falling just short of NATO membership. But Russian leaders are just going to see keep viewing this as but a recipe for future conflict. 

This is precisely what Zelensky is now demanding in place of dropping the NATO bid. "We are talking about bilateral security guarantees between Ukraine and the United States — namely, Article 5-like guarantees ... as well as security guarantees for us from our European partners and from other countries such as Canada, Japan and others," he recently told Financial Times.

While rejecting the US deal which hinges on significant territorial concessions, Zelensky is hailing his new stance as some kind of grand compromise.

"These security guarantees are an opportunity to prevent another wave of Russian aggression," he had said over the weekend. "And this is already a compromise on our part." But this should have been taken off the table all the way back in February of 2022, on the eve of the Russian invasion, or even well before. Of course, he's much too late 'offering' this 'concession'. 

As we pointed out earlier, the open secret has for years been that the Washington and EU establishments know full well that it was historic and recent constant NATO expansion which led to this horrific, grinding war. This reality is so well understood that in their private, non-official commentary even former top Biden officials fully admit the fact.

Yet these same Biden officials had while in government pursued policies fueling the Ukrainian proxy war as they wanted to 'weaken' Russia. They considered the issue of NATO expansion as a prime rationale of Russia's invasion to be an off-limits talking point.

All of the above developments suggest that diplomacy is still going nowhere, also as Kiev has still not been induced to offer anything 'real' (from Moscow's perspective) that would be enough to permanently end the war and achieve lasting peace.

According to a recent podcast appearance by geopolitical analyst and University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer, "there is virtually no reason to think that a peace agreement can be struck to end the war, despite all the diplomatic maneuvering that has been taking place in recent months."

He continued... "For sure, diplomacy is a good thing in principle, but in practice it is going nowhere in this case. Russian demands are completely at odds with Ukrainian and European demands. And neither side is willing to budge an inch. Moreover, many seem to think that the proposal the Trump administration is pushing is a joint US-Russian plan — one that both Moscow and Washington support — when in fact there is no evidence that the Russians have accepted Trump’s 27-point plan."

"Indeed, that proposal is unacceptable to the Russians as they made clear on December 4th. Diplomacy will only become relevant when there is a major development on the battlefield that tells both sides that it is time to negotiate an armistice, turning the hot war into a frozen conflict." Watch the full interview below:

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 23:00

FBI Hunting Down Members Of 764 Network: Dan Bongino

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The FBI is in the process of pursuing members of the 764 criminal network, Deputy Director Dan Bongino said in a Dec. 12 post on X.

The 764 is a violent network, operating within the United States and around the globe, that methodically targets and exploits minors, according to the FBI.

“These networks use threats, blackmail, and manipulation to coerce or extort victims into producing, sharing, or live-streaming acts of self-harm, animal cruelty, sexually explicit acts, and/or suicide,“ the FBI stated. ”The footage is then circulated among members of the network to continue to extort victims and exert control over them.”

Bongino wrote on X: “We are hunting down the members of the 764 network with unprecedented arrest numbers, and a tireless focus on developing new investigative leads with our state, local, and global law enforcement partners.

“We will not allow them to target our children.

“You cannot hide behind a keyboard.”

The 764 network comprises “Nihilistic Violent Extremists” who support the production and sharing of child sex abuse material and extreme gore media, the Department of Justice stated on Nov. 20.

Members “often conduct coordinated extortions of teenagers, blackmailing the victims to comply with the group’s demands.”

On Nov. 20, a federal grand jury indicted a 20-year-old member of the 764 network over allegations that the person persuaded and coerced three minor females to engage in sexually explicit conduct.

“This is one of the most serious issues in America and the @FBI numbers reflect it—500 percent increase in Nihilistic Violent Extremism arrests over last year and 20 percent increase in confirmed 764 arrests,” FBI Director Kash Patel said in a post on X. “Every field office is fully engaged and we’re not slowing down.”

The FBI stated: “Victims are typically between the ages of 10 and 17 years old, but the FBI has seen some victims as young as 9 years old. These violent actors target vulnerable populations to include children as well as those who struggle with a variety of mental health issues, such as depression, eating disorders, or suicidal ideation.”

Malicious actors groom their targets by establishing trusting, romantic relationships with victims.

The agency asked family and friends to watch out for potential indicators and warning signs among minors, including sudden changes in behavior or appearance, dropping out of activities and becoming more isolated, scars, carvings on the skin such as words or symbols, scratches or bruises, burn marks, wearing long sleeves or pants in hot weather, harming of family pets or other animals, and receipt of anonymous gifts.

Protecting Children

In a Dec. 12 FBI podcast, Supervisory Special Agent Abbi Beccaccio, who oversees specialized child sexual exploitation investigations, said the members of violent online networks get their victims to engage in horrific activities because of “their underlying desire to sow chaos.”

“Essentially, they want to target the most vulnerable populations, and in doing so, they hope to bring down the fabric of society, whether or not they actually have the ability to do that,” Beccaccio said.

This week, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) introduced three bipartisan bills to protect children online that focus on sentencing laws, child extortion, and violent online criminal networks, according to a Dec. 9 statement from the Senate Committee on the Judiciary.

The Sentencing Accountability for Exploitation Act requires the U.S. Sentencing Commission to develop a new child sex abuse material (CSAM) sentencing guideline that takes into account modern indicators of dangerous conduct, such as a person taking part in a CSAM online group.

The Ending Coercion of Children and Harm Online Act seeks to tackle the issue of individuals coercing children into harming themselves, other people, or animals by proposing life in prison for such crimes.

The Stop Sextortion Act targets people who threaten to distribute CSAM with the goal of coercing, intimidating, and extorting children.

“Changes in technology have created new opportunities for criminals to harass, exploit, intimidate, and harm American children. These horrific crimes—often committed by violent online groups who take advantage of our nation’s outdated laws—have gone unchecked for far too long,” Grassley said.

“Congress must stand up for American families and finally address the online rot that is hurting children nationwide.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 22:35

End Of An Era: Pro-Democracy Icon Jimmy Lai Found Guilty Of Sedition In Hong Kong

The high profile trial of Hong Kong's foremost pro-democracy media tycoon has just wrapped up, and it puts a symbolic cap on the end of an era in terms of prior large scale anti-China activism in the city.

Jimmy Lai, who long spearheaded huge protests and local media criticism of Beijing, was found guilty on Monday in a landmark national security case, marking an end to the 156-dady trial. He could spend the rest of his life in prison based the series of sedition-related convictions.

Media tycoon and Beijing critic Jimmy Lai, via Associated Press

Prosecutors accused him of conspiring with senior executives of the fiercely pro-democracy and independent Chinese-language newspaper Apple Daily and others to request foreign forces to impose sanctions or blockades to thwart Beijing influence in Hong Kong. 

Further, he's alleged to have engaged in other hostile activities against Hong Kong or China, which hearkens back to prior years of long-running street protests which sometimes descended into violence and vandalism, or at times large student takeovers of entire university buildings.

China had long alleged a foreign intelligence 'hidden hand' behind the protests. This was in part due to student activists being in semi-regular communication with Western officials and NGOs, and sometimes even honored at events hosted in Europe or the US.

A panel of three government-approved judges convicted the 78-year-old, after Lai had consistently denied all charges. He was first detained in August 2020 under Hong Kong’s Beijing-imposed national security law.

The security law has been widely seen as the final nail in the coffin of Hong Kong's long-running autonomy, and was a response to the major 2019 protests which were widely covered in international press reports.

Lai upon the verdict being read appeared upbeat, as he waved to supporters in the public gallery, which included his wife, son, and Hong Kong’s Catholic Cardinal Joseph Zen.

Western leaders, including of the US and Britain, are expected to lobby for his freedom, especially given that this is being viewed as ultimately a crackdown on Western values in influence on one of the globe's main financial hubs.

Sebastien Lai, one of his children, issued a statement on behalf of the family, saying they are saddened by the verdict, describing it as a twisting of justice. "In the 800-page verdict they have there is essentially nothing, nothing that incriminates him," Lai told reporters in London. "This is a perfect example of how the national security law has been molded and weaponized against someone who essentially said stuff that they didn't like."

Western condemnation and outrage pours in...

The UK condemns the prosecution of Jimmy Lai and calls for his immediate release.

My statement on the verdict today; pic.twitter.com/rHttaOuktB

— Yvette Cooper (@YvetteCooperMP) December 15, 2025

"This verdict proves that the authorities still fear our father, even in his weakened state, for what he represents," his daughter Claire added in the statement. "We stand by his innocence and condemn this miscarriage of justice."

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 22:10

Homan Urges Politicians To Stop Attacking ICE, Border Patrol Officers

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Politicians should stop attacking immigration officers trying to enforce laws while putting their lives at risk, border czar Tom Homan said during a press briefing on Dec. 13 that involved officials from the Customs and Border Patrol (CBP).

“I’m begging the politicians, the governors, the mayors who constantly attack these men and women, please stop. I don’t want to bury anybody else. It’s not a joke. We’re all there enforcing the laws. Not only I care about the safety of the men and women in uniform, I care about the safety of those who we’re looking for and apprehending,” Homan told reporters.

“I want you to remember three o'clock this morning, I bet every one of you will be sleeping comfortably in your bed. These men and women will be standing on a dirt trail someplace because a sensor went off. Is it just someone coming for better life? Or was it a heavily armed drug smuggler? They don’t know, but they’re going to take it on. Every night across this nation.”

Homan praised the men and women of CBP, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and other federal law enforcement who are involved in building what he called the “most secure border.”

There have been multiple incidents of immigration enforcement officers being attacked while carrying out their duties.

In a Dec. 10 statement, ICE said more than 100 people attempted to impede an investigation, locking a gate to trap agents within a restaurant. The investigation was part of a multi-year probe targeting a transnational criminal organization.

“Agitators quickly turned violent, assaulting officers and slashing tires,” it said.

Two Homeland Security Investigations Special Response Team operators were injured, with one suffering a knee injury while the other ruptured a bicep. Two U.S. citizens were arrested for assaulting a federal officer, obstruction, and damaging a government vehicle.

An ICE officer was attacked by an illegal immigrant from Louisiana who “savagely bit the officer’s hand while resisting arrest,” DHS said in a Dec. 12 statement. The bite tore through the skin and drew blood, according to DHS. The agency called on politicians and the media to halt calls to resist ICE enforcement.

“DHS law enforcement is facing a 1,150 percent increase in assaults against them and an 8,000 percent increase in death threats. This is the reality of what our ICE officers are facing every day as they go to work to simply do their job and enforce the law,” DHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin said.

Protestors taunt federal agents in front of Immigration and Customs Enforcement offices in Portland, Oregon, on Oct. 3, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Protecting ICE Officers

Certain lawmakers and local officials have maintained a negative view of immigration enforcement.

During a Sept. 30 news briefing, Katrina Thompson, the mayor of Broadview, Illinois, demanded that ICE and DHS stop what she called “hostile actions” against the local community.

She alleged officers were deploying chemical agents and physical force against protestors, and said there was a “pattern of escalating aggression” from ICE agents against demonstrators exercising their First Amendment rights.

In September, California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed into law a bill that makes it a misdemeanor crime for officers to wear face coverings while doing their jobs.

Newsom said his state was “pushing back” against actions of the Trump administration.

“It’s like a dystopian sci-fi movie. Unmarked cars, people in masks, people quite literally disappearing. No due process, no rights in a democracy where we have rights,” he said.

Federal agents have been wearing masks to protect their identities and prevent them and their families from being doxxed by activists.

On Nov. 17, the Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against California and its officials, challenging the law and other legislation, arguing they pose considerable personal safety risks for agents, including doxxing and harassment.

“Law enforcement officers risk their lives every day to keep Americans safe, and they do not deserve to be doxed or harassed simply for carrying out their duties,” Attorney General Pamela Bondi said in a statement.

DHS is taking action against people who threaten immigration officers.

Last week, DHS announced it had arrested two people from New Jersey who allegedly threatened to shoot ICE officers “on sight.” The individuals also threatened to hang McLaughlin, the agency said in a Dec. 9 statement.

U.S. citizens Ricardo Antonio Roman-Flores and Emilio Roman-Flores, who are twins, were charged with multiple crimes, including conspiracy to commit terroristic threats and unlawful possession of an assault weapon. The Epoch Times was unable to reach the pair’s attorneys for comment at the time.

“Let this be a warning to anyone who dares threaten or attack our brave law enforcement officers,” Acting ICE Director Todd Lyons said. “If you threaten our law enforcement or DHS officials, we will hunt you down and you will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 21:45

Time For An AI-Tech Supply-Chain Channel-Check In Asia. Here Are Key Takeaways...

Channel checks in Asia's tech supply chain are critical and can be used as early signals or leading indicators when trying to gauge the AI bubble and/or global demand for tech, especially in North America and Europe.

Goldman's James Schneider told clients on Monday that his team visited two dozen companies deeply embedded in the IT supply chain across Taiwan, Korea, and Japan, the global production capitals for semiconductors, servers, memory, displays, optics, and capital equipment.

Schneider's top ten takeaways from his team's channel checks were that AI server demand remains robust, with no signs of slowing in 2026, while end-market growth for PCs remains mixed.

Here are the top ten takeaways:

1. AI servers: Robust demand is expected to continue in 2026, with no signs of slowing. Although full-rack shipments could more than double, with similar levels of growth in GPU and ASICs, the rate of ASIC shipment growth will likely be faster.

2. AI chip vendors: Nvidia's Rubin is on track for mid-2026 production and a strong 2H26 volume ramp. Suppliers note very strong traction for Broadcom's TPU for Google but mixed trends for other suppliers.

3. Optical networking: Demand is extremely strong, driven by significant speed upgrades (transition to 800Gb and eventually 1.6T) and pricing uplift — and Broadcom datapoints are particularly strong.

4. Semi cap equipment: 2026 & 2027 WFE expectations continue to increase, led by DRAM and leading-edge logic. NAND spending remains muted for now, and trailing-edge logic remains under pressure.

5. Semi test: Robust demand continues for AI-driven applications, driven by GPU, ASIC, and HBM. We expect Teradyne's market share position to improve.

6. Analog and RF: Demand is improving but varies by end market, with strength in datacenter, moderate improvement in industrial, and sluggish trends in automotive.

7. DRAM: Supply growth remains moderate, and demand continues to materially exceed supply. Blended HBM pricing is expected to moderate before increasing again, while conventional DRAM pricing is expected to increase substantially.

8. NAND: Supply/demand conditions have tightened materially and are expected to remain tight in the medium term. SanDisk appears to have won an additional hyperscaler customer for eSSDs in 2026.

9. PCs: Expectations are for very muted unit growth or modest declines in 2026. AMD appears to be gaining some increased level of traction in commercial PCs.

10. Smartphones: High-end unit shipments remain solid, but low-end market volumes are already being significantly pressured by rising input costs.

Schneider also provided 10 critical charts and much more detail on the channel checks, which can be viewed in full by ZeroHedge Pro subscribers in the usual place.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 21:20

"Offensive To Decency": Supreme Court Won't Hear Free Speech Case Over Vanity Plate

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Supreme Court has turned away a Tennessee woman’s appeal of her state rejecting a personalized license plate for her car.

The court rejected the petition in Gilliam v. Gerregano on Dec. 8 in an unsigned order without comment. No justices dissented.

The petitioner, Leah Gilliam, is “an avid video gamer and an astronomy buff,” according to her petition filed with the Supreme Court.

In 2010, she applied to the state for a custom plate “69PWNDU,” a phrase that is “understandable to people who share her interests.”

Gilliam says the “69” refers to the 1969 moon landing and “PWND” is a video gamers’ expression that means to be dominated or defeated.

The Tennessee Department of Revenue approved the application and issued the plate, which she mounted on her car for 11 years, during which the department did not receive any complaints about it, the petition said.

After the department’s chief of staff received a complaint in 2021, the agency canceled the personalized plate, asserting it violated state law because it was “offensive to good taste and decency.”

Gilliam sued, arguing that the state law was inconsistent with the U.S. Constitution’s First Amendment because it empowered the government department to engage in viewpoint-based discrimination, the petition said.

The Tennessee Chancery Court ruled for the state, finding that the custom plate constituted government speech, not private speech, so the First Amendment does not prevent the state from discriminating on the basis of viewpoint. The Tennessee Court of Appeals reversed, holding that the plate was private speech. The court said that most courts have ruled that personalized plates are private speech, the petition said.

The appeals court said vehicle owners use custom plates to express their own messages, that the public sees vehicle owners as the ones speaking, and that even though state employees screen the plates, the process is not involved enough to make the messages on the plates government speech.

The Tennessee Supreme Court reversed, finding that the public sees custom plates as government speech. It also held that alphanumeric combinations on personalized plates are a means for the state to convey information about the vehicle to law enforcement and the public. Although vehicle owners use the plates to communicate personal messages, this is “incidental” and “does not refute this distinct government purpose.”

Because state law forbids the department from issuing plates that are offensive or endorse any practice that is against state policy, “the state exercises enough control over personalized plates for the plates to be government speech,” the state’s highest court said.

In the petition, Gilliam’s attorneys said “an important legal principle is at stake” in the case.

“If the messages on personalized license plates are government speech, then those messages are exempt from the First Amendment. That means a state can allow personalized plates that support one political party but prohibit others,” petition said.

The Tennessee Supreme Court’s decision is “demonstrably wrong” and should be reversed, the petition said.

Attorneys for David Gerregano, the commissioner of the Tennessee Department of Revenue, said the U.S. Supreme Court held in Walker v. Texas Division, Sons of Confederate Veterans Inc., that license plates are “government-mandated, government-controlled, and government-issued IDs.”

The state uses the plates to convey a message that constitutes government speech, the state brief said. The message is, “Identify this vehicle by these alphanumeric characters,” and that is true “whether the characters are requested or randomly generated,” the brief said.

“This Court does not need another license-plate case on government speech. One is plenty,” the brief said.

The Epoch Times reached out to attorneys for Gilliam and Gerregano for comment. No replies were received by publication time.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 20:55

China Blasts 'Premeditated' Provocations Of US-Allied Philippines At Disputed Shoal

China continues to squabble and get in maritime incidents with US allies in regional waters of the Western Pacific. Lately it has been locked in a heightening dispute with Japan over Tokyo's pro-Taiwan stance, but there's been a new recent incident with The Philippines.

Beijing on Monday accused Manila of staging a "deliberate" provocation and carrying out hazardous and aggressive actions near a contested reef in the South China Sea following a tense weekend incident. China has further blamed Washington for issuing what it labeled as misleading statements that have set the region on edge.

The Philippines said Chinese coast guard vessels used water cannons against Filipino fishing boats near Sabina Shoal during an incident Friday. This led to a weekend of tit-for-tat accusations and denunciations.

China's narrative is that it claimed Philippine personnel threatened its officers with knives. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said Monday that the Philippines had deployed a large number of vessels in a coordinated and intentional effort to stir up trouble in waters near the disputed shoal.

Guo's statement said they "repeatedly carried out dangerous maneuvers" and after knives were brandished, "The measures taken by China were necessary to safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, were reasonable and lawful, professional and restrained, and beyond reproach."

"The Philippine side should immediately cease its infringement and provocations, stop hyping and spreading inflammatory narratives, and end the endless self-staged maritime farce," it added.

However, Western sources say it was Philippine civilians who got the worst of it, with several suffering injuries from the encounter. According to the Philippine side: 

Manila rushed two patrol boats to protect fishermen in the South China Sea after a water cannon attack from Chinese cutters that left three injured in one of the most severe incidents at Sabina Shoal this year.

According to the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), the incident occurred on Friday near Sabina Shoal when several China Coast Guard (CCG) and China Maritime Militia vessels surrounded 20 Filipino fishing boats operating near the maritime feature located 75 nautical miles from the Philippine island of Palawan. CCG cutters 21559 and 21562 also deployed rigid-hulled inflated boats to cut the anchor lines of the Philippine fishermen, sending them adrift in what the PCG described as an “endangering” action.

Three Philippine citizens sustained injuries, including bruising and open wounds, according to the Philippine Coast Guard. Two fishing vessels were also damaged from the Chinese high-pressure water cannon blasts.

While the injuries don't seem life threatening, it's rare moment for one side to emphasize things like open wounds. But Beijing is dismissing the reports as hype and exaggeration. 

Philippine President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. said in a speech in Singapore last year that Manila's red line in dealings in such maritime clashes with China would be crossed if a Philippine citizen were killed - a position that has lately reiterated.

Google Maps

The United States has also restated that its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines applies to Philippine vessels operating in the South China Sea. The State Department has made clear that Article IV of the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty covers armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft, including those of the Philippine Coast Guard. And this applies to anywhere in the South China Sea, the prior warning from October indicated.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 19:40

China Blasts 'Premeditated' Provocations Of US-Allied Philippines At Disputed Shoal

China continues to squabble and get in maritime incidents with US allies in regional waters of the Western Pacific. Lately it has been locked in a heightening dispute with Japan over Tokyo's pro-Taiwan stance, but there's been a new recent incident with The Philippines.

Beijing on Monday accused Manila of staging a "deliberate" provocation and carrying out hazardous and aggressive actions near a contested reef in the South China Sea following a tense weekend incident. China has further blamed Washington for issuing what it labeled as misleading statements that have set the region on edge.

The Philippines said Chinese coast guard vessels used water cannons against Filipino fishing boats near Sabina Shoal during an incident Friday. This led to a weekend of tit-for-tat accusations and denunciations.

China's narrative is that it claimed Philippine personnel threatened its officers with knives. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said Monday that the Philippines had deployed a large number of vessels in a coordinated and intentional effort to stir up trouble in waters near the disputed shoal.

Guo's statement said they "repeatedly carried out dangerous maneuvers" and after knives were brandished, "The measures taken by China were necessary to safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, were reasonable and lawful, professional and restrained, and beyond reproach."

"The Philippine side should immediately cease its infringement and provocations, stop hyping and spreading inflammatory narratives, and end the endless self-staged maritime farce," it added.

However, Western sources say it was Philippine civilians who got the worst of it, with several suffering injuries from the encounter. According to the Philippine side: 

Manila rushed two patrol boats to protect fishermen in the South China Sea after a water cannon attack from Chinese cutters that left three injured in one of the most severe incidents at Sabina Shoal this year.

According to the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), the incident occurred on Friday near Sabina Shoal when several China Coast Guard (CCG) and China Maritime Militia vessels surrounded 20 Filipino fishing boats operating near the maritime feature located 75 nautical miles from the Philippine island of Palawan. CCG cutters 21559 and 21562 also deployed rigid-hulled inflated boats to cut the anchor lines of the Philippine fishermen, sending them adrift in what the PCG described as an “endangering” action.

Three Philippine citizens sustained injuries, including bruising and open wounds, according to the Philippine Coast Guard. Two fishing vessels were also damaged from the Chinese high-pressure water cannon blasts.

While the injuries don't seem life threatening, it's rare moment for one side to emphasize things like open wounds. But Beijing is dismissing the reports as hype and exaggeration. 

Philippine President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. said in a speech in Singapore last year that Manila's red line in dealings in such maritime clashes with China would be crossed if a Philippine citizen were killed - a position that has lately reiterated.

Google Maps

The United States has also restated that its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines applies to Philippine vessels operating in the South China Sea. The State Department has made clear that Article IV of the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty covers armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft, including those of the Philippine Coast Guard. And this applies to anywhere in the South China Sea, the prior warning from October indicated.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 19:40

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower as Volatility Risks Increase

Mortgage rates were just slightly lower to start the new week. This leaves the average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate almost dead center in the narrow range that's been intact since early September. ... If unemployment comes in lower than expected, rates would likely face upward pressure, potentially challenging the upper boundary of the recent range. On the other hand, a weaker/higher result should keep rates well within the range, perhaps near the lower boundary. [30 year fixed 6.29%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for November.   The consensus is for 50,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.4%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for October will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales.

Two Years Of Milei: A Resounding Success?

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

When we analyze the economic situation in Argentina, we must first understand the calamity to which the country was left by the socialist government of Alberto Fernandez and years of Peronism.

According to UNICEF, Javier Milei has lifted more than one and a half million children out of poverty in just two years. He has restored economic growth and relaunched Argentina, which was heading towards a disaster similar to Venezuela’s due to the policies of Kirchnerism, often referred to as the “socialism of the XXI century”.

When Milei assumed power, Argentina was hurtling toward hyperinflation and misery, on an accelerated path of economic devastation. Inflation was 25.5% per month.

Under the socialism of the 21st century, Kirchnerism’s “inclusive monetary policy” led to skyrocketing cumulative inflation: between 2011 and 2015, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner oversaw a roughly 175% increase in prices, while Alberto Fernández’s destructive term resulted in a cumulative inflation rate of 1,020%, the highest among the previous five presidents, which meant that prices nearly multiplied tenfold. These policies sank the peso, triggered massive inflation, and drove poverty to over 41.7%, according to official figures. Alberto Fernández left behind nearly 19 million poor and 4.3 million indigent people, multiple exchange rates, a devastating capital control regime, and a bankrupt central bank with net negative reserves of over 15 billion.

Socialism impoverished a rich country like Argentina at an alarming and very rapid rate.

Javier Milei came to power with non-negotiable goals: a fiscal surplus, curbing inflation, and reviving a sunken economy. His first two years in office conclude with a spectacular macroeconomic record: inflation has plummeted from global highs, poverty has fallen back to 2018 levels, the economy is back on a growth trajectory, net debt has been significantly reduced, and real wages are beginning to recover—all thanks to the largest adjustment and deregulation plan in decades.

Milei inherited a monthly inflation rate of 25.5% in December 2023, close to 300% annually—the highest in the world—and has quickly reduced it to around 2.3% per month by October, the lowest level since 2018, with forecasts pointing to a further decline in 2026. Furthermore, the budget has gone from an unsustainable deficit to recording a surplus for the first time in 14 years, thanks to deep cuts in unnecessary spending without harming essential services, closing ministries, eliminating useless agencies, reducing subsidies, and cutting tens of thousands of bloated public-sector jobs from the final stretch of the previous administration.

Letting the economy breathe works.

Appropriate liberalisation policies have significantly reduced poverty. UCA estimates show a nearly 20 percentage point drop from the crisis peaks and a rate in the 31–36% range—the lowest level in six years—while UNICEF estimates that around 1.7 million children have been lifted out of poverty over the past two years. Furthermore, independent analysts place the “real poverty” inherited from Alberto Fernández at levels much higher than 41.7% if the exchange rate was fully adjusted; in any case, even using official figures, the turnaround is undeniable: far fewer people in poverty and greater purchasing power for vulnerable groups when inflation is tackled at its root.

Argentina was already in a recession when Milei took office. Argentina’s GDP fell by 1.6% in 2023, according to INDEC, and had already been declining since 2022, with a 2.2% seasonally adjusted drop in the fourth quarter of 2022. GDP fell by 1.3% in 2024 and soared by 5.2% in the first nine months of 2025. The 2025 economic growth figures have more than compensated for the deficit, demonstrating robust and healthy growth that is not influenced by public spending. The IMF predicts a growth rate of approximately 4.5% for 2025, placing it among the highest in Latin America. By 2026, projections from major organisations place GDP growth at around 3%–4%, with cumulative growth of nearly 8 percentage points between 2025 and 2026. This strong momentum contrasts with the chronic stagnation left behind by socialism, which had the audacity to claim that its problem was that “we’re growing too much.” The confirmation of the GDP decline in 2023 showed that Argentina’s GDP was virtually the same as in 2011, despite soaring public spending and deficits that artificially boosted economic activity.

Milei’s austerity measures have resulted in a sharp reduction in public-sector employment—which had been inflated by Kirchnerism and financed with debt and inflation—while the private sector begins to take over. Milei created more than 650,000 new private-sector jobs. Total employment has grown by 330,000 jobs in two years, according to INDEC, and, most importantly, public-sector employment has fallen by 370,000 unnecessary political positions inflated by Kirchnerism, while private-sector employment has risen sharply. The government’s objective is for formal private-sector employment to grow steadily as the GDP rebound consolidates, with various scenarios placing the unemployment rate at around 6.5% by 2026 if the reforms are maintained.

Public debt reached very high levels at the end of 2023 and has since fallen dramatically in net terms. The debt burden on the economy has fallen sharply: it has been reduced by tens of billions of dollars and has declined in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP, and the inherited explosive dynamic has been halted. The debt-to-GDP ratio dropped from over 100% between 2020 and 2023, peaking at 155%, to 70% in the third quarter of 2025.

We cannot forget the debt hole hidden in the Central Bank left by socialism. Milei eliminated the central bank’s debt by transferring it to the Treasury, as it should be, and in the two years of his presidency, total debt recorded a net decrease of 48.5 billion. Minister Luis Caputo and Central Bank President Santiago Bausili played a crucial role in defusing the potential explosives left by socialism, preventing them from exploding in the face of the next administration. We cannot forget Diego Santilli’s efforts to ensure the safety and peace of mind of Argentinians in the face of constant sabotage threats, nor Manuel Adorni’s efforts to dismantle socialist propaganda and disinformation.

The primary surplus has been achieved by cutting spending, reducing the burden of inefficient subsidies, curbing public employment growth, and prioritising essential social programs. Fewer subsidies for everyone and more assistance for those who truly need it allow us to reduce debt, control spending, and help those who really require it.

Deregulation to remove the state’s boot from the economy.

DNU 70/2023 and the Ley Bases have dismantled hundreds of regulations in the markets for goods, services, rentals, foreign trade, and public enterprises, led by the Ministry of Deregulation headed by Federico Sturzenegger. The elimination of price controls, the reduction of tariffs, and the opening of sectors such as air transport and real estate have resulted in a greater variety of products and better prices for consumers.

Now it’s investment’s turn, which needs to eliminate the legal uncertainty created by socialism. The RIGI programme, designed to attract large investments of over $100 million, offers regulatory stability and legal certainty, and more than $31 billion in projects have already been announced, especially in mining and energy.

It is essential that Spanish companies invest in the Argentina of freedom, as the United States has done, or they will miss out on the ongoing period of prosperity.

Voters perceive all these macroeconomic achievements: in the midterm legislative elections, La Libertad Avanza won around 41% of the vote compared to the Peronists’ 32%, marking the first time since 1989 that Peronism has ceased to be the largest minority in Congress and enabling the acceleration of structural reforms.

It’s not a miracle. It’s not an experiment. Milei and his government team have implemented economic logic and an unequivocal defence of freedom.

The recipe for our countries is clear: reject gradualism and defend freedom without any reservations… and prosperity flourishes.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 19:15

Two Years Of Milei: A Resounding Success?

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

When we analyze the economic situation in Argentina, we must first understand the calamity to which the country was left by the socialist government of Alberto Fernandez and years of Peronism.

According to UNICEF, Javier Milei has lifted more than one and a half million children out of poverty in just two years. He has restored economic growth and relaunched Argentina, which was heading towards a disaster similar to Venezuela’s due to the policies of Kirchnerism, often referred to as the “socialism of the XXI century”.

When Milei assumed power, Argentina was hurtling toward hyperinflation and misery, on an accelerated path of economic devastation. Inflation was 25.5% per month.

Under the socialism of the 21st century, Kirchnerism’s “inclusive monetary policy” led to skyrocketing cumulative inflation: between 2011 and 2015, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner oversaw a roughly 175% increase in prices, while Alberto Fernández’s destructive term resulted in a cumulative inflation rate of 1,020%, the highest among the previous five presidents, which meant that prices nearly multiplied tenfold. These policies sank the peso, triggered massive inflation, and drove poverty to over 41.7%, according to official figures. Alberto Fernández left behind nearly 19 million poor and 4.3 million indigent people, multiple exchange rates, a devastating capital control regime, and a bankrupt central bank with net negative reserves of over 15 billion.

Socialism impoverished a rich country like Argentina at an alarming and very rapid rate.

Javier Milei came to power with non-negotiable goals: a fiscal surplus, curbing inflation, and reviving a sunken economy. His first two years in office conclude with a spectacular macroeconomic record: inflation has plummeted from global highs, poverty has fallen back to 2018 levels, the economy is back on a growth trajectory, net debt has been significantly reduced, and real wages are beginning to recover—all thanks to the largest adjustment and deregulation plan in decades.

Milei inherited a monthly inflation rate of 25.5% in December 2023, close to 300% annually—the highest in the world—and has quickly reduced it to around 2.3% per month by October, the lowest level since 2018, with forecasts pointing to a further decline in 2026. Furthermore, the budget has gone from an unsustainable deficit to recording a surplus for the first time in 14 years, thanks to deep cuts in unnecessary spending without harming essential services, closing ministries, eliminating useless agencies, reducing subsidies, and cutting tens of thousands of bloated public-sector jobs from the final stretch of the previous administration.

Letting the economy breathe works.

Appropriate liberalisation policies have significantly reduced poverty. UCA estimates show a nearly 20 percentage point drop from the crisis peaks and a rate in the 31–36% range—the lowest level in six years—while UNICEF estimates that around 1.7 million children have been lifted out of poverty over the past two years. Furthermore, independent analysts place the “real poverty” inherited from Alberto Fernández at levels much higher than 41.7% if the exchange rate was fully adjusted; in any case, even using official figures, the turnaround is undeniable: far fewer people in poverty and greater purchasing power for vulnerable groups when inflation is tackled at its root.

Argentina was already in a recession when Milei took office. Argentina’s GDP fell by 1.6% in 2023, according to INDEC, and had already been declining since 2022, with a 2.2% seasonally adjusted drop in the fourth quarter of 2022. GDP fell by 1.3% in 2024 and soared by 5.2% in the first nine months of 2025. The 2025 economic growth figures have more than compensated for the deficit, demonstrating robust and healthy growth that is not influenced by public spending. The IMF predicts a growth rate of approximately 4.5% for 2025, placing it among the highest in Latin America. By 2026, projections from major organisations place GDP growth at around 3%–4%, with cumulative growth of nearly 8 percentage points between 2025 and 2026. This strong momentum contrasts with the chronic stagnation left behind by socialism, which had the audacity to claim that its problem was that “we’re growing too much.” The confirmation of the GDP decline in 2023 showed that Argentina’s GDP was virtually the same as in 2011, despite soaring public spending and deficits that artificially boosted economic activity.

Milei’s austerity measures have resulted in a sharp reduction in public-sector employment—which had been inflated by Kirchnerism and financed with debt and inflation—while the private sector begins to take over. Milei created more than 650,000 new private-sector jobs. Total employment has grown by 330,000 jobs in two years, according to INDEC, and, most importantly, public-sector employment has fallen by 370,000 unnecessary political positions inflated by Kirchnerism, while private-sector employment has risen sharply. The government’s objective is for formal private-sector employment to grow steadily as the GDP rebound consolidates, with various scenarios placing the unemployment rate at around 6.5% by 2026 if the reforms are maintained.

Public debt reached very high levels at the end of 2023 and has since fallen dramatically in net terms. The debt burden on the economy has fallen sharply: it has been reduced by tens of billions of dollars and has declined in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP, and the inherited explosive dynamic has been halted. The debt-to-GDP ratio dropped from over 100% between 2020 and 2023, peaking at 155%, to 70% in the third quarter of 2025.

We cannot forget the debt hole hidden in the Central Bank left by socialism. Milei eliminated the central bank’s debt by transferring it to the Treasury, as it should be, and in the two years of his presidency, total debt recorded a net decrease of 48.5 billion. Minister Luis Caputo and Central Bank President Santiago Bausili played a crucial role in defusing the potential explosives left by socialism, preventing them from exploding in the face of the next administration. We cannot forget Diego Santilli’s efforts to ensure the safety and peace of mind of Argentinians in the face of constant sabotage threats, nor Manuel Adorni’s efforts to dismantle socialist propaganda and disinformation.

The primary surplus has been achieved by cutting spending, reducing the burden of inefficient subsidies, curbing public employment growth, and prioritising essential social programs. Fewer subsidies for everyone and more assistance for those who truly need it allow us to reduce debt, control spending, and help those who really require it.

Deregulation to remove the state’s boot from the economy.

DNU 70/2023 and the Ley Bases have dismantled hundreds of regulations in the markets for goods, services, rentals, foreign trade, and public enterprises, led by the Ministry of Deregulation headed by Federico Sturzenegger. The elimination of price controls, the reduction of tariffs, and the opening of sectors such as air transport and real estate have resulted in a greater variety of products and better prices for consumers.

Now it’s investment’s turn, which needs to eliminate the legal uncertainty created by socialism. The RIGI programme, designed to attract large investments of over $100 million, offers regulatory stability and legal certainty, and more than $31 billion in projects have already been announced, especially in mining and energy.

It is essential that Spanish companies invest in the Argentina of freedom, as the United States has done, or they will miss out on the ongoing period of prosperity.

Voters perceive all these macroeconomic achievements: in the midterm legislative elections, La Libertad Avanza won around 41% of the vote compared to the Peronists’ 32%, marking the first time since 1989 that Peronism has ceased to be the largest minority in Congress and enabling the acceleration of structural reforms.

It’s not a miracle. It’s not an experiment. Milei and his government team have implemented economic logic and an unequivocal defence of freedom.

The recipe for our countries is clear: reject gradualism and defend freedom without any reservations… and prosperity flourishes.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 19:15

Supertankers Bound For Venezuela Make U-Turns, Fearing US Interdiction, As PDVSA Hit By Cyberattack

Fresh reporting in Reuters has tracked at least five supertankers which have changed course on Monday after initially heading to Venezuela to load crude oil, following this month's US naval seizure of a Venezuelan tanker.

Among these was a Russian tanker transporting crude for Venezuela’s state-owned oil company PDVSA, along with at least four other supertankers en route to Venezuelan ports. They made u-turns on fears of facing US military interdiction. 

Illustrative, via Gcaptain.

This also comes after last Friday Bloomberg and others reported that Washington was preparing to carry out further seizures of sanction-linked oil tankers off Venezuela's coast.

Venezuela’s Foreign Minister Yvan Gil condemned these moves and threats as piracy, calling it an "illegal and aggressive act of sabotage."

Officially at least, the Trump-ordered military build-up in the southern Caribbean is all about disrupting and dismantling drug trafficking operations. But many analysts see the real motivator is ease of access to major underground oil reserves.

This has meant that Venezuela’s oil exports are effectively paralyzed, with the exception of Chevron's shipments which are operating under US authorization.

Meanwhile, those earlier telegraphed Trump-authorized CIA covert ops appear to be well underway, given new reports of a major cyber attack on Venezuela's national oil company.

"Venezuela's state-run oil company PDVSA has been subject to a cyberattack, it said on Monday, adding its operations were unaffected, even though four sources said systems remained down and oil cargo deliveries were suspended," according to Reuters.

PDVSA in a statement said that foreign interests were complicit with domestic entities in the cyberattack, as part of Washington's broader efforts to control the nation's sovereign resources oil by "force and piracy." PDVSA further said it was recovering from the attack and trying to bring systems online.

Venezuela Oil Output Could Plunge 300-500k bpd from US Pressure

Dark fleet exports crashing
Naphtha imports (key diluent) at risk#IEA: Already down 150k bpd in Nov to 860k bpd.#Chevron ops may hold longer... but big drop coming.

Don't miss my latest Article on #Venezuela… pic.twitter.com/xh1E7ovLMb

— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) December 15, 2025

However, some sources have said that the effects from the cyberattack are still ongoing, with a company source stating: "There is no delivery of cargoes, all systems are down."

In total the threat of seizures has left several tankers loaded with a combined 11 million barrels of oil and fuel basically stuck in Venezuelan and Caribbean waters.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 18:50

Supertankers Bound For Venezuela Make U-Turns, Fearing US Interdiction, As PDVSA Hit By Cyberattack

Fresh reporting in Reuters has tracked at least five supertankers which have changed course on Monday after initially heading to Venezuela to load crude oil, following this month's US naval seizure of a Venezuelan tanker.

Among these was a Russian tanker transporting crude for Venezuela’s state-owned oil company PDVSA, along with at least four other supertankers en route to Venezuelan ports. They made u-turns on fears of facing US military interdiction. 

Illustrative, via Gcaptain.

This also comes after last Friday Bloomberg and others reported that Washington was preparing to carry out further seizures of sanction-linked oil tankers off Venezuela's coast.

Venezuela’s Foreign Minister Yvan Gil condemned these moves and threats as piracy, calling it an "illegal and aggressive act of sabotage."

Officially at least, the Trump-ordered military build-up in the southern Caribbean is all about disrupting and dismantling drug trafficking operations. But many analysts see the real motivator is ease of access to major underground oil reserves.

This has meant that Venezuela’s oil exports are effectively paralyzed, with the exception of Chevron's shipments which are operating under US authorization.

Meanwhile, those earlier telegraphed Trump-authorized CIA covert ops appear to be well underway, given new reports of a major cyber attack on Venezuela's national oil company.

"Venezuela's state-run oil company PDVSA has been subject to a cyberattack, it said on Monday, adding its operations were unaffected, even though four sources said systems remained down and oil cargo deliveries were suspended," according to Reuters.

PDVSA in a statement said that foreign interests were complicit with domestic entities in the cyberattack, as part of Washington's broader efforts to control the nation's sovereign resources oil by "force and piracy." PDVSA further said it was recovering from the attack and trying to bring systems online.

Venezuela Oil Output Could Plunge 300-500k bpd from US Pressure

Dark fleet exports crashing
Naphtha imports (key diluent) at risk#IEA: Already down 150k bpd in Nov to 860k bpd.#Chevron ops may hold longer... but big drop coming.

Don't miss my latest Article on #Venezuela… pic.twitter.com/xh1E7ovLMb

— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) December 15, 2025

However, some sources have said that the effects from the cyberattack are still ongoing, with a company source stating: "There is no delivery of cargoes, all systems are down."

In total the threat of seizures has left several tankers loaded with a combined 11 million barrels of oil and fuel basically stuck in Venezuelan and Caribbean waters.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 18:50

Today, OMERS announced it has completed a refinancing for its stake in Exolum:

December 15, 2025 – OMERS Infrastructure is pleased to announce the successful close of €770 million in new debt facilities at Borealis Spain Parent B.V., the holding company for OMERS ~25% stake in Exolum.

Exolum is a Spanish-headquartered global energy logistics infrastructure company providing specialised solutions to support the energy transition in which OMERS has been directly invested since 2016. The company owns the transmission pipeline network spanning 4,000km in Spain and operates a 2,000km pipeline network in the UK. Exolum also owns 68 storage terminals with a total capacity of 11+ million cbm and serves over 48 airports worldwide – including Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Madrid, Barcelona, Lisbon, Lima in Peru, and Charles de Gaulle – making it a global leader in aviation fuel infrastructure.

Michael Hill, Executive Vice President and Global Head of OMERS Infrastructure, said: “The scale, pricing, and the engagement of both bank and private placement lenders in this process demonstrate the strong fundamentals and quality of the Exolum investment, as well as the expertise of our team. The offering was oversubscribed, with lenders recognizing the company’s robust growth, effective energy transition diversification strategy, and the strength of its leadership. We extend our appreciation to everyone involved and thank Exolum’s management for their valuable support throughout this process."

This announcement follows the recent close of an inaugural senior unsecured bond issuance totalling C$1.5 billion for OMERS holding in Bruce Power, a company in Ontario in which OMERS has been directly invested since 2003. 

OMERS has great infrastructure assets so it doesn't surprise me that this refinancing for its stake in Exolum went well.

They refinance to allow these companies to grow their operations.

It should be noted that back in June, OMERS Infrastructure hired Sara Petrov as its new Managing Director, Debt Capital Markets:

June 2, 2025 – OMERS Infrastructure today announced that it has hired Sara Petrov as its new Managing Director, Debt Capital Markets. Sara will have global responsibility for developing and managing OMERS Infrastructure’s financing partner relationships and supporting the global investments teams in financing activities at the initial acquisition and throughout each portfolio company’s growth and lifecycle. Originally from Toronto, Sara has since moved to New York and will continue to be based there in her new role.

Michael Hill, Executive Vice President & Global Head of OMERS Infrastructure, said: “Our investment teams raise and refinance over $4B of debt across our portfolio companies and for new investments annually. The size and number of our debt facilities, the complexity and breadth of our businesses, and the increasing opportunity we see to create value through optimal capital structuring and differentiated lender relationships has emphasized the importance of this new role at OMERS Infrastructure. Sara has a deep understanding of the debt capital markets, having had over 15 years of experience in the industry and we’re thrilled to welcome her to the team.”

 Fair to say Sara and her team hit the ground running

 As far as Exolum, it has an interesting history and ownership structure:

The ownership structure of Exolum Corporation, S.A., parent company of the Exolum Group, is regulated by Royal Decree-Act 6/2000 of 23 June, which provides that no natural or legal person may directly or indirectly hold more than 25% of the company’s capital or voting rights. It also provides that the sum of direct or indirect stakes held by shareholders with a refining capacity in Spain shall not exceed 45%.

IMCO took over the assets of Workplace Safety Insurance Board (WSIB), so you have two large Canadian pension funds that own 35% of the shares.

It's a huge company that provides the following services:

• Liquid product logistics: We offer state-of-the-art terminals, close to logistics and transport hubs, for the storage of bulk liquids and gases.
• Sustainable energies: We develop new business areas around decarbonisation, circularity and innovation, aligned with the energy transition.
• Aviation We are a global leader in independent aviation logistics. We want to continue to grow, building and operating infrastructure at airports around the world.
• Additional services: At Exolum we take care of every detail of the product, from its composition to its delivery. Our quality, metrology and additivation services guarantee safety, traceability and regulatory compliance at every stage of the process.

The company operates in 10 countries and its goal is to continue to expand globally, offering innovative and sustainable solutions by building strategic alliances and developing state-of-the-art infrastructures.

In order to do this properly, it needs to refinance its operations and raise debt when it makes sense to tap debt markets.

Again, not surprised the latest offering was oversubscribed, it tells you how much global investors value this company and its operations. 

Below, a clip going over Exolum's operations and how it makes the world a better place. Incredible infrastructure asset owned by same of the world's best global investors.

Owners Of Inherited IRAs Face Dec 31 Deadline To Start Taking Withdrawals

If you inherited an IRA in 2020 or later, you could be facing a Dec 31 deadline to start taking required minimum distributions from the account, under threat of IRS penalties. 

The new rules spring from the December 2019 SECURE Act, which attacked long-beloved rules that previously allowed beneficiaries to stretch required distributions over their life expectancies, allowing them to enjoy tax-deferred growth along the way. The new rules apply to those who inherited either a traditional or Roth IRA from someone who died in 2020 or after. Those who inherited IRAs before 2020 still get to use the friendlier old rules. 

Rather than simply giving beneficiaries 10 years to drain inherited IRAs at the pace of their choosing, the IRS insisted on a more complicated annual requirement

The new rules apply when the deceased IRA owner was old enough to be taking RMDs of their own before they died. The new requirements do not apply to spouse beneficiaries, who will still be able to take over the inherited retirement plan assets and have them treated as if they had always been theirs. There's also forgiving flexibility for so-called "eligible designated beneficiaries," such as those who are disabled or chronically ill, minor children of the deceased owner, and others who are not more than 10 years younger than the deceased owner.

Between the SECURE Act's passage and the IRS's tardy 2024 announcement about the final rules, IRA beneficiaries were subjected to a multi-year, rolling bureaucratic fiasco, unsure what they were supposed to do. While the feds sorted things out, the IRS said it wouldn't penalize anyone who didn't take a required distribution in 2021, 2022, 2023 or 2024. However, those days of rare IRS leniency are over, with affected beneficiaries now required to calculate a 2025 RMD by applying a life expectancy factor to the balance of their inherited IRA as of Dec 31 of last year.

If you fail to take the RMD, the penalty is a hefty 25% of the amount you should have taken out but didn't. That penalty is trimmed to 10% if you correct things within two years. Among other institutions, Vanguard offers an online, inherited IRA RMD calculator that anyone can use.

Inaction between now and Dec 31 could trigger a big tax penalty for owners of inherited IRAs

There's no need to "make up" for the years when the IRS waived the penalty, and the 10-year clock is still based on the year of death. After taking RMDs driven by your life expectancy each year through Year 9, you'll have to take out the entire remaining balance by Dec 31 of the year containing the 10th anniversary of the original IRA-owner's death. For example, consider a situation where an IRA owner died in 2021 and left her IRA to her adult child. After taking RMD's in 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030, the beneficiary has to take out whatever's left in 2031.  

The RMD math drives distributions of relatively small proportions of the account before Year 10. Building on the previous example, a 58-year-old beneficiary of an inherited IRA that had a balance of $100,000 on Dec 31 2024 would have to take just $3,378 this year. All things equal, those RMD's grow gradually larger each year. However, investment performance and withdrawals will affect the account balance used to determine subsequent RMDs. 

It could be in your interest to take out more than the RMD. For example, if the account is big enough, a large, single withdrawal in Year 10 could push you into a higher tax bracket, or have a domino affect on other elements of your tax return driven by your adjusted gross income. Then there's the question of what future tax rate you'll be subjected to in a late-stage empire that's $38 trillion in debt.  

You may also want to factor in your future income needs. Someone who's retiring a few years before that Year 10 lump-sum requirement may plan on taking big distributions over the last few years of the 10-year span, after his other income has dipped.   

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 18:25

Owners Of Inherited IRAs Face Dec 31 Deadline To Start Taking Withdrawals

If you inherited an IRA in 2020 or later, you could be facing a Dec 31 deadline to start taking required minimum distributions from the account, under threat of IRS penalties. 

The new rules spring from the December 2019 SECURE Act, which attacked long-beloved rules that previously allowed beneficiaries to stretch required distributions over their life expectancies, allowing them to enjoy tax-deferred growth along the way. The new rules apply to those who inherited either a traditional or Roth IRA from someone who died in 2020 or after. Those who inherited IRAs before 2020 still get to use the friendlier old rules. 

Rather than simply giving beneficiaries 10 years to drain inherited IRAs at the pace of their choosing, the IRS insisted on a more complicated annual requirement

The new rules apply when the deceased IRA owner was old enough to be taking RMDs of their own before they died. The new requirements do not apply to spouse beneficiaries, who will still be able to take over the inherited retirement plan assets and have them treated as if they had always been theirs. There's also forgiving flexibility for so-called "eligible designated beneficiaries," such as those who are disabled or chronically ill, minor children of the deceased owner, and others who are not more than 10 years younger than the deceased owner.

Between the SECURE Act's passage and the IRS's tardy 2024 announcement about the final rules, IRA beneficiaries were subjected to a multi-year, rolling bureaucratic fiasco, unsure what they were supposed to do. While the feds sorted things out, the IRS said it wouldn't penalize anyone who didn't take a required distribution in 2021, 2022, 2023 or 2024. However, those days of rare IRS leniency are over, with affected beneficiaries now required to calculate a 2025 RMD by applying a life expectancy factor to the balance of their inherited IRA as of Dec 31 of last year.

If you fail to take the RMD, the penalty is a hefty 25% of the amount you should have taken out but didn't. That penalty is trimmed to 10% if you correct things within two years. Among other institutions, Vanguard offers an online, inherited IRA RMD calculator that anyone can use.

Inaction between now and Dec 31 could trigger a big tax penalty for owners of inherited IRAs

There's no need to "make up" for the years when the IRS waived the penalty, and the 10-year clock is still based on the year of death. After taking RMDs driven by your life expectancy each year through Year 9, you'll have to take out the entire remaining balance by Dec 31 of the year containing the 10th anniversary of the original IRA-owner's death. For example, consider a situation where an IRA owner died in 2021 and left her IRA to her adult child. After taking RMD's in 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030, the beneficiary has to take out whatever's left in 2031.  

The RMD math drives distributions of relatively small proportions of the account before Year 10. Building on the previous example, a 58-year-old beneficiary of an inherited IRA that had a balance of $100,000 on Dec 31 2024 would have to take just $3,378 this year. All things equal, those RMD's grow gradually larger each year. However, investment performance and withdrawals will affect the account balance used to determine subsequent RMDs. 

It could be in your interest to take out more than the RMD. For example, if the account is big enough, a large, single withdrawal in Year 10 could push you into a higher tax bracket, or have a domino affect on other elements of your tax return driven by your adjusted gross income. Then there's the question of what future tax rate you'll be subjected to in a late-stage empire that's $38 trillion in debt.  

You may also want to factor in your future income needs. Someone who's retiring a few years before that Year 10 lump-sum requirement may plan on taking big distributions over the last few years of the 10-year span, after his other income has dipped.   

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 18:25

Clinton Judge Orders Destruction Of Key Evidence In Case Against James Comey

A Clinton-appointed federal judge in Washington has stepped into the James Comey saga with an order that effectively tells the FBI to wipe a key evidentiary trail tied to the former director’s obstruction case, and to do it quickly. The move drops the Justice Department into a separation-of-powers storm at the same time it is trying to salvage its prosecution of the man who helped ignite the Trump-Russia hoax. 

Former FBI Director James Comey was indicted in September on charges of making false statements to Congress and obstructing a congressional proceeding, stemming from his 2020 testimony about Operation Crossfire Hurricane. The indictment alleged that Comey lied when he denied authorizing anyone at the FBI to act as an anonymous source for media reports damaging to Donald Trump, and that he used Columbia Law Professor Daniel Richman as an outside conduit to leak material while Richman simultaneously worked as a government contractor. Emails between the two are critical to the case against Comey. 

U.S. District Judge Cameron McGowan Currie, a Bill Clinton appointee, dismissed the indictments against Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James last month, ruling that the appointment of Interim U.S. Attorney Lindsey Halligan, who pursued the charges, was unconstitutional, and thus the indictments were invalid. 

Six years ago, a warrant approved by Judge James Boasberg allowed the FBI to seize Richman’s devices.

Today, another Clinton-appointed judge, Colleen Kollar-Kotelly, has ordered the FBI to destroy the emails by 4 p.m. on Monday. According to Michael R. Davis, the founder and president of the Article III Project, the ruling “threatens the separation of powers essential to the Republic, and either the D.C. Circuit or Supreme Court must intervene immediately.

Richman, who is not charged in the case and has no standing as a defendant, filed a motion under Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure 41(g) to reclaim those emails, arguing that the government violated his Fourth Amendment rights. Rule 41(g) typically allows individuals to ask a court to return property obtained in an unlawful search. 

Still, its use here departs from legal norms because Richman is not the target of the prosecution, and Comey himself lacks standing to challenge the warrant executed on Richman’s accounts. Judge Kollar-Kotelly granted the motion and, on December 13, ordered the Justice Department to return all data seized from Richman, concluding that prosecutors handled the material with “callous disregard” for Richman’s rights and had improperly used it to indict Comey. She directed that a copy of the emails be delivered to Biden-appointed Judge Michael Nachmanoff, who is presiding over the Comey case in the Eastern District of Virginia, but even with that copy preserved, the ruling bars the FBI and prosecutors from reviewing these emails as they pursue a new indictment.

“This salvation of a copy of the emails, however, does not lessen the impact of Kollar-Kotelly’s horrible ruling,” explains Davis.

“The FBI and the prosecution will be unable to review them in their efforts to seek a new indictment if Currie’s dismissal ruling survives on appeal.”

The statute-of-limitations law allows the government only six months after an indictment’s dismissal, suspended during the appellate process, to seek a new indictment. The inability to view this evidence would substantially increase the time necessary to seek an indictment. Even if a higher court reverses Currie, the government’s inability to review the emails to use as evidence and prepare for trial would massively hamper its case.

Kollar-Kotelly’s decision raises grave separation-of-powers concerns because it involves a judge outside the criminal case, and outside the district where it is pending, ordering the destruction of evidence that was lawfully obtained. 

Usually, Rule 41(g) comes into play where a defendant has had property wrongly seized, and he moves to reclaim it,” Davis explains. “Here, Comey is not seeking to reclaim anything; Richman, a then-government contractor with whom Comey communicated extensively about government business, is seeking this evidence. Richman has run to a partisan Democrat judge not even involved in the criminal case — and not even in the same district — to procure the destruction of crucial evidence in that case in an obvious effort to assist his friend Comey.”

Ordinarily, the judge presiding over the criminal case decides whether to suppress evidence under the Fourth Amendment, not a different judge in another district using a third party as a vehicle to attack the warrant. 

Comey cannot challenge the warrant against Richman because he lacks standing to do so. Incredibly, Kollar-Kotelly suggested that Richman could move to quash this evidence in Virginia. She’s going way out of her way to help Comey. Judges presiding over cases often have excluded evidence against defendants as having been obtained in violation of the Fourth Amendment. It is, however, extraordinary for a different judge — especially in a different district — to interfere in and dramatically hamper the prosecution’s case based on a claim by a third party of a wrongful search and seizure, especially when the evidence the government wishes to use consists of communications between that third party and the defendant — a defendant who was a senior government official.

The episode fits within a broader pattern in which left-leaning judges have allowed or intensified lawfare against President Trump and his allies while taking steps to shield alleged lawfare perpetrators, such as Comey, from accountability.

 “If higher courts do not reign in these rogue judges, Congress must do so through oversight, withholding of funds from judicial appropriations, and impeachment,” argues Davis. “A system where the judiciary enables lawfare and then shields its perpetrators from legal consequences is unsustainable, and higher courts must put a stop to it.”

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 18:00

Clinton Judge Orders Destruction Of Key Evidence In Case Against James Comey

A Clinton-appointed federal judge in Washington has stepped into the James Comey saga with an order that effectively tells the FBI to wipe a key evidentiary trail tied to the former director’s obstruction case, and to do it quickly. The move drops the Justice Department into a separation-of-powers storm at the same time it is trying to salvage its prosecution of the man who helped ignite the Trump-Russia hoax. 

Former FBI Director James Comey was indicted in September on charges of making false statements to Congress and obstructing a congressional proceeding, stemming from his 2020 testimony about Operation Crossfire Hurricane. The indictment alleged that Comey lied when he denied authorizing anyone at the FBI to act as an anonymous source for media reports damaging to Donald Trump, and that he used Columbia Law Professor Daniel Richman as an outside conduit to leak material while Richman simultaneously worked as a government contractor. Emails between the two are critical to the case against Comey. 

U.S. District Judge Cameron McGowan Currie, a Bill Clinton appointee, dismissed the indictments against Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James last month, ruling that the appointment of Interim U.S. Attorney Lindsey Halligan, who pursued the charges, was unconstitutional, and thus the indictments were invalid. 

Six years ago, a warrant approved by Judge James Boasberg allowed the FBI to seize Richman’s devices.

Today, another Clinton-appointed judge, Colleen Kollar-Kotelly, has ordered the FBI to destroy the emails by 4 p.m. on Monday. According to Michael R. Davis, the founder and president of the Article III Project, the ruling “threatens the separation of powers essential to the Republic, and either the D.C. Circuit or Supreme Court must intervene immediately.

Richman, who is not charged in the case and has no standing as a defendant, filed a motion under Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure 41(g) to reclaim those emails, arguing that the government violated his Fourth Amendment rights. Rule 41(g) typically allows individuals to ask a court to return property obtained in an unlawful search. 

Still, its use here departs from legal norms because Richman is not the target of the prosecution, and Comey himself lacks standing to challenge the warrant executed on Richman’s accounts. Judge Kollar-Kotelly granted the motion and, on December 13, ordered the Justice Department to return all data seized from Richman, concluding that prosecutors handled the material with “callous disregard” for Richman’s rights and had improperly used it to indict Comey. She directed that a copy of the emails be delivered to Biden-appointed Judge Michael Nachmanoff, who is presiding over the Comey case in the Eastern District of Virginia, but even with that copy preserved, the ruling bars the FBI and prosecutors from reviewing these emails as they pursue a new indictment.

“This salvation of a copy of the emails, however, does not lessen the impact of Kollar-Kotelly’s horrible ruling,” explains Davis.

“The FBI and the prosecution will be unable to review them in their efforts to seek a new indictment if Currie’s dismissal ruling survives on appeal.”

The statute-of-limitations law allows the government only six months after an indictment’s dismissal, suspended during the appellate process, to seek a new indictment. The inability to view this evidence would substantially increase the time necessary to seek an indictment. Even if a higher court reverses Currie, the government’s inability to review the emails to use as evidence and prepare for trial would massively hamper its case.

Kollar-Kotelly’s decision raises grave separation-of-powers concerns because it involves a judge outside the criminal case, and outside the district where it is pending, ordering the destruction of evidence that was lawfully obtained. 

Usually, Rule 41(g) comes into play where a defendant has had property wrongly seized, and he moves to reclaim it,” Davis explains. “Here, Comey is not seeking to reclaim anything; Richman, a then-government contractor with whom Comey communicated extensively about government business, is seeking this evidence. Richman has run to a partisan Democrat judge not even involved in the criminal case — and not even in the same district — to procure the destruction of crucial evidence in that case in an obvious effort to assist his friend Comey.”

Ordinarily, the judge presiding over the criminal case decides whether to suppress evidence under the Fourth Amendment, not a different judge in another district using a third party as a vehicle to attack the warrant. 

Comey cannot challenge the warrant against Richman because he lacks standing to do so. Incredibly, Kollar-Kotelly suggested that Richman could move to quash this evidence in Virginia. She’s going way out of her way to help Comey. Judges presiding over cases often have excluded evidence against defendants as having been obtained in violation of the Fourth Amendment. It is, however, extraordinary for a different judge — especially in a different district — to interfere in and dramatically hamper the prosecution’s case based on a claim by a third party of a wrongful search and seizure, especially when the evidence the government wishes to use consists of communications between that third party and the defendant — a defendant who was a senior government official.

The episode fits within a broader pattern in which left-leaning judges have allowed or intensified lawfare against President Trump and his allies while taking steps to shield alleged lawfare perpetrators, such as Comey, from accountability.

 “If higher courts do not reign in these rogue judges, Congress must do so through oversight, withholding of funds from judicial appropriations, and impeachment,” argues Davis. “A system where the judiciary enables lawfare and then shields its perpetrators from legal consequences is unsustainable, and higher courts must put a stop to it.”

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 18:00

10 Major Laws Taking Effect In California In 2026

Authored by Cynthia Cai via The Epoch Times,

The new year is right around the corner, which means a new batch of laws will soon take effect.

From banning masks for law enforcement officers and requiring gender-neutral restrooms in schools, to enhancing artificial intelligence regulations and completely banning plastic bags in stores, here is an overview of some major laws Californians can expect next year or late this year.

Law Enforcement Masks

Senate Bill 627 will ban law enforcement officers at the local and federal levels from wearing a face mask when operating in the Golden State.

It also requires agencies to create policies limiting the use of facial coverings. According to the bill, face coverings excluded from this ban include clear face shields that don’t obscure the person’s facial identity, medical masks, motorcycle helmets, or masks necessary for underwater use.

The federal government had sued the state over this new rule, saying it threatens the safety of officers who could be harassed if their identities are known. Attorney General Pamela Bondi said in a Nov. 17 statement that “California’s anti-law enforcement policies discriminate against the federal government and are designed to create risk for our agents.”

The mask ban is slated to take effect on July 1, 2026.

School Policies

Senate Bill 760 will require schools to provide at least one all-gender restroom available during school hours and school functions.

The bill allows schools to convert their existing restrooms to comply. The state will reimburse local agencies and school districts for the costs.

The new bathroom policy applies to both public and charter schools and will take effect on July 1, 2026.

Assembly Bill 495 will broaden who can approve school-related medical procedures.

Distant relatives and temporary legal guardians designated by a parent in a family court will be allowed to sign a child out of school and authorize medical care.

Supporters have said the move protects families that have been divided by deportation due to illegal immigration. But opponents said it could lead to kidnapping and child trafficking if someone other than the parents has authority over a student.

Taking effect Jan. 1, 2026, the law will also prohibit daycare providers from asking for or keeping immigration-related information about students or their parents.

AI Regulations

Senate Bill 243 will make California the first state to require safety regulations specifically targeting companion chatbots.

Chatbots are described by the Federal Trade Commission as artificial intelligence (AI) technology that can “effectively mimic human characteristics, emotions, and intentions, and generally are designed to communicate like a friend or confidant, which may prompt some users, especially children and teens, to trust and form relationships with chatbots.”

The new law requires a technology operator to make it clear and obvious to users that the chatbot is not a real human.

It also requires the operator to maintain a protocol for preventing the chatbot from producing content involving suicide or self-harm for the user. Details of the protocol need to be published on the operator’s website to comply with the new law.

The new chatbot regulations will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026, and chatbot operators will be required to submit annual reports on suicide-prevention protocols beginning on July 1, 2027.

Senate Bill 53 creates new regulations for frontier AI models, which include OpenAI’s GPT-4 and -5, Google’s Gemini, and xAI’s Grok.

Frontier AI models are defined as “a foundation model that was trained using a quantity of computing power greater than 10^26 integer or floating-point operations,” according to the bill.

Under the new law, large developers will have to publish their “frontier AI framework” explaining risk management practices, mitigation strategies, and evaluations by a third party. They will also be required to release transparency reports detailing risk assessments prior to introducing updated AI models. Non-compliance would result in up to $1 million in fines.

The new regulations will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026.

Business Pay Transparency and Reporting

Senate Bill 642 will revise the rules surrounding employers’ pay scales and employees’ pay history disclosures.

Under this new law, employers are prohibited from asking applicants about their salary history information. However, if applicants voluntarily disclose their salary history, employers are still allowed to use the information to decide on salaries for applicants.

Employers now must also give employees pay scale information for their current roles upon request. Additionally, employers with over 15 employees must include pay scale information in all job postings.

The new pay disclosure regulations will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026.

Senate Bill 464 will implement stricter rules for pay data reporting and separating demographic data.

Under the new law, employers with more than 100 employees must store demographic data collected for pay reports separately from main personnel records. They will also have to submit their annual pay data reports to the Civil Rights Department for more job categories.

The pay and demographic data regulations will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026. Then on Jan. 1, 2027, the number of job categories for annual pay reporting will expand to 23.

Health Care

Assembly Bill 144 establishes a handful of new health-related policies for the state, which took effect on Sept. 17 after the governor signed the bill into law.

Key changes include requiring health plans to continue to cover, without cost-sharing, all preventive services and immunizations that are recommended at the federal level as of this year, even if the federal government later removes those recommendations. The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) will also have authority to supplement or modify federal health-related recommendations to create state-specific rules.

Health insurers must also, within 15 business days, cover any new recommendations by the CDPH regarding changes to vaccines and other preventive services.

The new law also extends protection to clinic employees, who “shall not be liable for any injury caused by an act or omission in the administration of the vaccine or other immunizing agent.”

AB 144 will also exempt out-of-state health care practitioners from having to obtain California licensure when providing services at the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles.

Senate Bill 40 will cap the price of a 30-day supply of insulin at $35. The bill says the goal is to reduce costs for people diagnosed with diabetes.

The new law would also restrict insurance companies from using “step therapy” for insulin, which is when an insurance company specifies the sequence in which different types of drugs are allowed to be prescribed.

The $35 cap will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026, for large health insurance companies and on Jan. 1, 2027, for individual or small group plans.

Total Ban on Plastic Bags

Senate Bill 1053 will eliminate single-use plastic bags at checkout, allowing only recycled paper bags for a 10-cent fee.

The law covers supermarkets, large retailers with pharmacies, and some convenience stores, which can no longer provide plastic bags at checkout regardless of thickness or intended reuse.

It will also require, by 2028, that paper bags provided at checkout contain at least 50 percent post-consumer recycled materials.

The plastic bag ban will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 17:40

10 Major Laws Taking Effect In California In 2026

Authored by Cynthia Cai via The Epoch Times,

The new year is right around the corner, which means a new batch of laws will soon take effect.

From banning masks for law enforcement officers and requiring gender-neutral restrooms in schools, to enhancing artificial intelligence regulations and completely banning plastic bags in stores, here is an overview of some major laws Californians can expect next year or late this year.

Law Enforcement Masks

Senate Bill 627 will ban law enforcement officers at the local and federal levels from wearing a face mask when operating in the Golden State.

It also requires agencies to create policies limiting the use of facial coverings. According to the bill, face coverings excluded from this ban include clear face shields that don’t obscure the person’s facial identity, medical masks, motorcycle helmets, or masks necessary for underwater use.

The federal government had sued the state over this new rule, saying it threatens the safety of officers who could be harassed if their identities are known. Attorney General Pamela Bondi said in a Nov. 17 statement that “California’s anti-law enforcement policies discriminate against the federal government and are designed to create risk for our agents.”

The mask ban is slated to take effect on July 1, 2026.

School Policies

Senate Bill 760 will require schools to provide at least one all-gender restroom available during school hours and school functions.

The bill allows schools to convert their existing restrooms to comply. The state will reimburse local agencies and school districts for the costs.

The new bathroom policy applies to both public and charter schools and will take effect on July 1, 2026.

Assembly Bill 495 will broaden who can approve school-related medical procedures.

Distant relatives and temporary legal guardians designated by a parent in a family court will be allowed to sign a child out of school and authorize medical care.

Supporters have said the move protects families that have been divided by deportation due to illegal immigration. But opponents said it could lead to kidnapping and child trafficking if someone other than the parents has authority over a student.

Taking effect Jan. 1, 2026, the law will also prohibit daycare providers from asking for or keeping immigration-related information about students or their parents.

AI Regulations

Senate Bill 243 will make California the first state to require safety regulations specifically targeting companion chatbots.

Chatbots are described by the Federal Trade Commission as artificial intelligence (AI) technology that can “effectively mimic human characteristics, emotions, and intentions, and generally are designed to communicate like a friend or confidant, which may prompt some users, especially children and teens, to trust and form relationships with chatbots.”

The new law requires a technology operator to make it clear and obvious to users that the chatbot is not a real human.

It also requires the operator to maintain a protocol for preventing the chatbot from producing content involving suicide or self-harm for the user. Details of the protocol need to be published on the operator’s website to comply with the new law.

The new chatbot regulations will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026, and chatbot operators will be required to submit annual reports on suicide-prevention protocols beginning on July 1, 2027.

Senate Bill 53 creates new regulations for frontier AI models, which include OpenAI’s GPT-4 and -5, Google’s Gemini, and xAI’s Grok.

Frontier AI models are defined as “a foundation model that was trained using a quantity of computing power greater than 10^26 integer or floating-point operations,” according to the bill.

Under the new law, large developers will have to publish their “frontier AI framework” explaining risk management practices, mitigation strategies, and evaluations by a third party. They will also be required to release transparency reports detailing risk assessments prior to introducing updated AI models. Non-compliance would result in up to $1 million in fines.

The new regulations will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026.

Business Pay Transparency and Reporting

Senate Bill 642 will revise the rules surrounding employers’ pay scales and employees’ pay history disclosures.

Under this new law, employers are prohibited from asking applicants about their salary history information. However, if applicants voluntarily disclose their salary history, employers are still allowed to use the information to decide on salaries for applicants.

Employers now must also give employees pay scale information for their current roles upon request. Additionally, employers with over 15 employees must include pay scale information in all job postings.

The new pay disclosure regulations will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026.

Senate Bill 464 will implement stricter rules for pay data reporting and separating demographic data.

Under the new law, employers with more than 100 employees must store demographic data collected for pay reports separately from main personnel records. They will also have to submit their annual pay data reports to the Civil Rights Department for more job categories.

The pay and demographic data regulations will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026. Then on Jan. 1, 2027, the number of job categories for annual pay reporting will expand to 23.

Health Care

Assembly Bill 144 establishes a handful of new health-related policies for the state, which took effect on Sept. 17 after the governor signed the bill into law.

Key changes include requiring health plans to continue to cover, without cost-sharing, all preventive services and immunizations that are recommended at the federal level as of this year, even if the federal government later removes those recommendations. The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) will also have authority to supplement or modify federal health-related recommendations to create state-specific rules.

Health insurers must also, within 15 business days, cover any new recommendations by the CDPH regarding changes to vaccines and other preventive services.

The new law also extends protection to clinic employees, who “shall not be liable for any injury caused by an act or omission in the administration of the vaccine or other immunizing agent.”

AB 144 will also exempt out-of-state health care practitioners from having to obtain California licensure when providing services at the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles.

Senate Bill 40 will cap the price of a 30-day supply of insulin at $35. The bill says the goal is to reduce costs for people diagnosed with diabetes.

The new law would also restrict insurance companies from using “step therapy” for insulin, which is when an insurance company specifies the sequence in which different types of drugs are allowed to be prescribed.

The $35 cap will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026, for large health insurance companies and on Jan. 1, 2027, for individual or small group plans.

Total Ban on Plastic Bags

Senate Bill 1053 will eliminate single-use plastic bags at checkout, allowing only recycled paper bags for a 10-cent fee.

The law covers supermarkets, large retailers with pharmacies, and some convenience stores, which can no longer provide plastic bags at checkout regardless of thickness or intended reuse.

It will also require, by 2028, that paper bags provided at checkout contain at least 50 percent post-consumer recycled materials.

The plastic bag ban will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 17:40