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Visualizing The Distribution Of Household Income In America

Zero Hedge -

Visualizing The Distribution Of Household Income In America

High income households in America capture a large share of the nation’s earnings, and this gulf has widened over time.

In 2024, the top 20% - with an average household income of $316,100 - took home 52.2% of all national income, up 8.7 percentage points from 1974.

Meanwhile, the bottom 20% received just 3.1%, further shrinking over the period.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows U.S. household income distribution in 2024, based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Trends in U.S. Income Distribution (2024 vs. 1974)

Below, we show how household income is divided across different income brackets:

In 2024, the bottom fifth of U.S. earners averaged $18,460 in household income. While small, their share of total national income has fallen sharply, declining by about 28% since 1974.

Moreover, this group includes workers earning the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour, as well as the roughly 760,000 workers who earn below this level. In particular, younger workers make up a large portion of this bracket, with 43% of those earning minimum wage or less being 25 years old or younger.

As we can see, the middle fifth of earners received 13.9% of U.S. household income in 2024, down from 17% in 1974. With an average household income of $84,390, this bracket largely reflects median-wage workers, spanning occupations such as civil engineers, computer programmers, and clinical psychologists.

On the other hand, the top 5% of earners, averaging $560,000 in income has seen it share expand by 6.6 percentage points. Moreover, it is the only income bracket, along with the top 20%, to see its share of national income grow compared to 1974.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on real wage growth by state.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 16:55

The Unreported Story Of Grid Scale Battery Fires

Zero Hedge -

The Unreported Story Of Grid Scale Battery Fires

Authored by Francis Menton via the Manhattan Contrarian,

The geniuses who are planning New York’s energy future think that they can make intermittent wind and solar generators work to power the electrical grid by the simple device of providing some battery storage. The idea is that when there is abundant wind and sun, they can store up the power for use during those calm and dark periods in the winter. How much battery storage will that take? It’s a simple arithmetic calculation, but none of our supposed experts have taken the trouble to crunch the numbers.

A fire burns at Vistra’s battery storage facility in Moss Landing, California, on Jan. 17.Photographer: Nic Coury/Bloomberg

Nevertheless, without any kind of feasibility study of whether this will work, they soldier forth building large grid-scale battery storage facilities. The battery building program is under way, at least to some degree, and a few such facilities are actually complete and operating out in the rural parts of the state. Meanwhile, there are plans for some much larger such facilities in New York City, including right in some of its most densely-populated sections. Is there any problem with this that we ought to know about?

In a post back in March 2024, I reported on the progress of our two “climate leader” states with developing grid-scale battery storage. It turned out that the big problem was that these facilities were subject to large and dangerous fires on a regular basis. In some cases the same facility would catch fire multiple times. That post reported on major fires in California at a site called Valley Center in San Diego County in September 2023, and at another one called Moss Landing south of San Francisco in September 2022. In January 2025, the Moss Landing facility had another major fire. From the EPA website:

On January 16, 2025, the Moss Landing 300 battery energy storage system at the Moss Landing Vistra power plant (Monterey County, Calif.) caught fire.

  • The 300-megawatt system held about 100,000 lithium-ion batteries.

  • About 55 percent of the batteries were damaged by the fire.

There were prior fires at the Moss Landing facility in September 2021 and February 2022.

Back here in New York, my March 2024 post reported on no fewer than three major fires at grid battery storage facilities in this state that had taken place during 2023. The following quote came from a piece at Canary Media from August 2023:

New York state is grappling with how to adjust its ambitious buildout of clean energy storage after fires broke out at three separate battery projects between late May and late July [2023]. . . . First, on May 31, a battery that NextEra Energy Resources had installed at a substation in East Hampton caught fire. . . . Then, on June 26, fire alarms went off at two battery units owned and operated by Convergent Energy and Power in Warwick, Orange County; one of those later caught fire. On July 27, a different Convergent battery at a solar farm in Chaumont caught fire and burned for four days straight.

Might you have the idea that these fires are becoming less frequent over time? If so, that’s only because these fires are one of those things — like the Somali welfare fraud in Minnesota — that the liberal media just don’t choose to report. It turns out that the Convergent Energy facility in Warwick, New York had another big fire just last week. From Etica AG, December 22:

Late on the evening of December 19, 2025, a fire occurred at the Church Street Battery Storage Facility in Warwick, New York, operated by Convergent Energy & Power. While no injuries were reported and the fire was confined to a single container, the incident remained active into the following day and prompted a multi-agency response, air quality monitoring, and renewed scrutiny of battery energy storage system (BESS) safety in the community.  For Warwick residents and local leaders, the fire carried added weight. The town has experienced multiple battery storage incidents in recent years, and each new event raises difficult questions about risk, emergency response, and whether existing BESS designs are suitable for locations near homes, schools, and small businesses. 

I can’t find any mention of this battery fire at the New York Times or at major media sites like CNN or the major television networks.

The Convergent Energy Warwick energy storage facility has a capacity of 12 MW and 57 MWh. Meanwhile, back here in New York City, there are plans, well advanced (although not quite yet under construction), to build a much larger grid battery storage facility in Ravenswood, Queens. That would be right on the East River, directly across from East Midtown and the Upper East Side of Manhattan:

You can see on the map how close much of Manhattan is to this facility. To be fair, the wind usually blows the other way, but the parts of Queens near this facility are also very densely populated. Something called Queensbridge Houses — the largest public housing project in the country — is immediately adjacent.

The planned capacity of the battery storage facility in Ravenswood is 316 MW/2528 MWh — some 25 or more times the size of the facility in Warwick that has now caught fire at least twice.

A New York agency going by the name NYSERDA (New York State Energy Research and Development Authority) is leading the charge to build these energy storage facilities, including in densely populated areas like Queens. On their website, they have a page touting the new battery storage project at the Ravenswood location. Believe it or not, their sales pitch is that the new battery facility is cleaner and greener than the prior natural gas power plants on the site. Here is a quote they take from Queens Borough President Donovan Richards:

“The days of environmental and economic injustice in Western Queens, especially for our historically marginalized public housing families, are coming to an end. As we prepare to transform the Ravenswood Generating Station into a clean energy producer, it’s critical that the surrounding community reaps the benefits of that transition,” said Borough President Richards.

Somehow, both NYSERDA and Donovan omit to mention the issue of the fires.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 16:20

Democrats Melt Down Over Capture And Arrest Of Dictator Maduro

Zero Hedge -

Democrats Melt Down Over Capture And Arrest Of Dictator Maduro

President Donald Trump ordered a midnight military raid that captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. U.S. forces pulled off the job without a hitch, hauling in the pair.

“The United States of America has successfully carried out a large scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Country,” Trump announced on Truth Social at 4:21 EST. “This operation was done in conjunction with U.S. Law Enforcement. Details to follow.”

Hours later, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced the pair had been indicted.

“Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, have been indicted in the Southern District of New York,” she explained in a post on X. “Nicolas Maduro has been charged with Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy, Cocaine Importation Conspiracy, Possession of Machineguns and Destructive Devices, and Conspiracy to Possess Machineguns and Destructive Devices against the United States. They will soon face the full wrath of American justice on American soil in American courts.”

Bondi then thanked President Trump for “having the courage to demand accountability on behalf of the American People,” as well as a “huge thank you to our brave military who conducted the incredible and highly successful mission to capture these two alleged international narco traffickers.”

While Venezuelans hit the streets in wild celebration, popping bottles and celebrating freedom, Democrats in Washington, D.C., clutched their pearls and went into full meltdown mode, accusing Trump of getting us into a war and violating the Constitution.

“Trump’s unilateral operation last night was an illegal act of war without Congress’s authorization,” Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) claimed.

“Maduro is a brutal dictator who has oppressed the Venezuelan people, but our constitution does not yield for bad people. If Congress is to survive as an institution, the Republican majority must join us exercising our power to hold this administration accountable for this flagrant violation of the constitution.”

He wasn’t the only Democrat to claim that Trump acted illegally.

“Without authorization from Congress, and with the vast majority of Americans opposed to military action, Trump just launched an unjustified, illegal strike on Venezuela,” Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) claimed.

“He says we don’t have enough money for healthcare for Americans—but somehow we have unlimited funds for war??”

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) also chimed in.

“President Trump’s unilateral military action to attack another country and seize Maduro — no matter how terrible a dictator he is — is unconstitutional and threatens to drag the U.S. into further conflicts in the region,” she argued.

“The American people voted for lower costs, not for Trump’s dangerous military adventurism overseas that won’t make the American people safer.”

Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) similarly accused Trump of getting the United States into an “illegal” war.

“This war is illegal, it’s embarrassing that we went from the world cop to the world bully in less than one year,” he said.

But these claims don’t hold water.

“Trump does not need congressional approval for this type of operation,” explains constitutional scholar Jonathan Turley. “Presidents, including Democratic presidents, have launched lethal attacks regularly against individuals. President Barack Obama killed an American citizen under this ‘kill list’ policy. If Obama can vaporize an American citizen without even a criminal charge, Trump can capture a foreign citizen with a pending criminal indictment without prior congressional approval.”

Turley likened the operation to the 1989 capture and prosecution of Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega. U.S. courts upheld the “abduction” model and rejected head‑of‑state immunity and extradition‑treaty objections. 

“Legally, Trump has the upper hand in this case. Maduro will replay the arguments from the Noriega case. However, he presents an even weaker case on the merits under the controlling precedent than did Noriega,” Turley explained. 

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 15:45

North America Leads Largest LNG Export Surge Since 2022

Zero Hedge -

North America Leads Largest LNG Export Surge Since 2022

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Surging liquefied natural gas exports from new North American export plants likely pushed global LNG shipments in 2025 by the most since 2022, Kpler data showed on Tuesday.

The annual rise in 2025 would be the steepest increase in global LNG exports since 2022, when shipments grew by 4.5% compared to 2021, the data showed.

North America was the key supplier of new LNG volumes, as Canada’s first-ever export facility, LNG Canada, started shipments in the middle of 2025, and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana launched operations and ramped up shipments throughout the year.

Thanks to rising capacity and volumes, the U.S. is set to become the first LNG exporter in the world to have passed in 2025 the threshold of 100 million tons of LNG exports in one year.

Additional LNG supply is poised to hit the market between 2026 and 2030 as more U.S. export plants come online and Qatar begins shipments from its huge capacity expansion of the North Field export facilities.

The U.S. is set to export 14.9 billion cubic feet per day of LNG in 2025, up by 25% from 2024, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for December. With new projects ramping up, the EIA expects U.S. LNG exports to jump to an average of 16.3 billion cubic feet per day in 2026.

Despite warnings of a near-term global LNG glut, top exporters in the Middle East, including Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), see strong demand going forward and flag insufficient investment in supply in the medium to long term.

The UAE is growing its LNG exports to meet surging global demand that will outpace investment in supply, Energy Minister Suhail al Mazrouei told Reuters earlier in December.

“I agree with his excellency, Minister of Qatar, that the demand is going to be much, much more than the projects that we are seeing,” the UAE official added.

Earlier this month, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, QatarEnergy’s CEO and the Minister of State for Energy Affairs of Qatar, said that global LNG demand will grow, led by increased power needs from AI-related data centers.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 15:10

Not The Bee: Woke City Appoints Convicted Murderer Who Shot Teen Girl To Police Review Board

Zero Hedge -

Not The Bee: Woke City Appoints Convicted Murderer Who Shot Teen Girl To Police Review Board

Kyle Hedquist, a convicted murderer who was sentenced to life in prison for shooting a teenage girl to death in cold blood, has been reappointed to serve on Salem, Oregon’s police review board - all in the name of his so-called “perspective” on the criminal justice system.

Hedquist, an Oregon native, was convicted of the aggravated murder of 19-year-old Nikki Thrasher, whom he lured down a remote rural road and shot in the back of the head to prevent her from revealing his involvement in a series of robberies. In 2022, then-Governor Kate Brown (D) played a key role in securing Hedquist’s early release, insisting that the killer “shouldn’t be locked up for life” simply because he was 17 years old at the time he executed Thrasher.

At the time of the commutation, Nikki’s mother, Hollie Thrasher, rightly condemned the decision to free her daughter’s murderer.

I am upset. I wasn’t even told,” she told KOIN 6. “He took the life of my daughter in cold blood. It was a cold-blooded murder. He planned it.

The New York Post has the details behind the city’s decision to hire Hedquist:

Defending his reappointment to the board — whose members train with police and take part in ride-alongs — a Salem councillor praised Hedquist for the “perspective” he brings.

Hedquist “brings a perspective that most of us don’t have,” Ward 6 City Councilor Mai Vang said in a video shared on Facebook following the Dec. 8 vote.

“As someone who’s been through the criminal justice system, he understands community safety from a different angle. He’s one voice among nine — he’s not running the show, but his experience matters,” she added.

While certain soft-on-crime ideologues may applaud this bizarre and tone-deaf appointment, law enforcement professionals are understandably appalled.

“To think that we’re providing education on kind of how we do what we do to someone with that criminal history, it just doesn’t seem too smart,” the Salem Police Employees’ Union declared in an interview with KATU2.

Salem Professional Fire Fighters Local 314 has likewise denounced the move.

“As police and fire professionals in the Salem community, we are asking Salem residents to stand with us,” their statement read.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 14:35

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller House Prices up 1.4% YoY

Calculated Risk -

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in October

FHFA’s Q3 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in November

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

The $60 Billion Question: Is Venezuela Secretly A Bitcoin Superpower?

Zero Hedge -

The $60 Billion Question: Is Venezuela Secretly A Bitcoin Superpower?

Authored by Bradley Hope and Clara Preve via whalehunting.projectbrazen.com,

Alex Saab may control $60 billion in Bitcoin for the Maduro regime. As Trump's naval blockade tightens, the real battle is being fought on the blockchain.

Nicolás Maduro is in U.S. custody. In the early hours of Saturday morning, Delta Force operators dragged the Venezuelan president and his wife from their bedroom in Caracas and flew them to the USS Iwo Jima, now steaming toward New York where Maduro will face drug trafficking and weapons charges in federal court.

But as Washington celebrates the most dramatic U.S. military operation in Latin America since the 1989 Panama invasion, a more urgent question is emerging in intelligence circles: Where is the money?

For years, Maduro and his inner circle systematically looted Venezuela—billions in oil revenue, gold reserves, and state assets—and, according to sources with direct knowledge of the operation, converted much of it into cryptocurrency.

The man who allegedly orchestrated that conversion, who built the shadow financial architecture that kept the regime alive under crushing sanctions, is not on that ship.

His name is Alex Saab.

And he may be the only person on Earth who knows how to access what sources estimate could be as much as $60 billion in Bitcoin—a figure that, if verified, would make the Maduro regime's hidden fortune one of the largest cryptocurrency holdings on the planet, rivaling MicroStrategy and potentially exceeding El Salvador's entire national reserve.

The claim comes from HUMINT sources and has not been confirmed through blockchain analysis, but the underlying math is provocative.

Venezuela exported 73.2 tons of gold in 2018 alone — roughly $2.7 billion at the time. If even a fraction of that was converted to Bitcoin when prices hovered between $3,000 and $10,000, and held through the 2021 peak of $69,000, the returns would be staggering.

Sources familiar with the operation describe a systematic effort to convert gold proceeds into cryptocurrency through Turkish and Emirati intermediaries, then move the assets through mixers and cold wallets beyond the reach of Western enforcement.

The keys to those wallets, sources say, are held by a small circle of trusted operatives—with Saab at the center.

What Washington didn't know—and what court documents would later reveal—was that Saab had been a DEA informant since 2016, even as he built Maduro's shadow financial empire.

Now, with Maduro captured, the question becomes: Will Saab cooperate again? Or will he disappear with the keys to Venezuela's stolen fortune?

Alex Saab embraces Nicolas Maduro upon his return to Caracas, December 2023. With Maduro now in U.S. custody, Saab may hold the keys to Venezuela's hidden crypto fortune.

In the official Venezuelan narrative, Alex Nain Saab Morán is a patriot, a diplomat, a martyr of U.S. imperial overreach. In Washington, he is the opposite: a professional sanctions-evader who built a labyrinth of offshore companies that enriched Nicolás Maduro's inner circle while Venezuela collapsed.

Now he may be something else entirely: among the most valuable people on earth.

But Saab is not the only person who knows where the money went. Whale Hunting has learned that a key figure in the gold-to-crypto pipeline—a man who allegedly served as a physical courier, flying gold bars from Venezuela to Turkey and Dubai—was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in 2019 but has never been publicly charged.

His name is David Nicolas Rubio Gonzalez. He is the son of Álvaro Pulido, Saab's longtime business partner. And his story may be the key to understanding what happened to Venezuela's stolen fortune.

The Courier

On September 17, 2019, the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control added David Nicolas Rubio Gonzalez to its sanctions list. The designation identified him as controlling at least three companies: Corporacion ACS Trading S.A.S. in Colombia, Dimaco Technology, S.A. in Panama, and Global de Textiles Andino S.A.S. in Colombia.

His father, Álvaro Pulido, had been indicted by the U.S. Department of Justice two months earlier, charged alongside Alex Saab with laundering more than $350 million from fraudulent Venezuelan state contracts. But David was not charged. He was sanctioned—his assets frozen, his ability to do business with Americans severed—but he faced no criminal prosecution.

Why?

According to sources with direct knowledge of the operation, David Rubio Gonzalez was not just a businessman. He was a courier. These sources describe a network that physically moved gold along a route from the Dominican Republic through Venezuela to Turkey and Dubai. Each trip, they say, netted the courier $1 million for his services.

The gold originated in the Arco Minero del Orinoco, a vast mining zone in eastern Venezuela. It was purchased by the state-owned mining company Minerven, processed by CVG Minerven—whose president maintained close ties to Saab—and transported abroad by private aircraft or Turkish Airlines commercial flights. But moving gold at scale requires trusted hands. Someone has to physically carry it, clear customs, deliver it to the refineries and brokers who convert it to cash.

David, sources say, was one of those hands.

Venezuelan gold moved through Turkey, the UAE, and Iran before conversion to cryptocurrency. Couriers like David Rubio Gonzalez allegedly earned $1 million per trip.

The question that haunts investigators is simple: If David was important enough to sanction, why wasn't he important enough to indict? His father faced eight counts of money laundering. David faced none.

There are only a few explanations. He could be cooperating with U.S. authorities—providing information in exchange for immunity or a reduced role in any future prosecution. He could be under sealed indictment, his charges hidden from public view until the moment of arrest. Or he could have simply slipped through the cracks, a secondary player deemed less important than the principals.

But if our sources are correct about his role as a courier—a man who physically handled the gold that became the regime's crypto fortune—then David Rubio Gonzalez may know exactly where the money went. And with Maduro captured, that knowledge has never been more valuable.

The Gold-to-Crypto Pipeline

The $60 billion didn't materialize from thin air. It was built through one of the most audacious financial operations in modern history: the systematic conversion of Venezuela's gold reserves into untraceable cryptocurrency.

In 2018, as Venezuela's economic crisis deepened and access to hard currency narrowed, the Maduro regime turned to gold. The country had been exporting gold for years, but now the operation scaled dramatically. Venezuela exported 73.2 tons of gold in 2018 alone—roughly $2.7 billion at the time.

Maduro placed the operation under the supervision of his close ally Tareck El Aissami, whom he appointed Minister of Industries and National Production. Alex Saab emerged as a central facilitator. The gold flowed to Turkey, where it was refined and sold. It flowed to the UAE, where it entered the global market. And in April 2020, tons of Venezuelan gold were flown to Iran on Mahan Air as part of a gold-for-gasoline swap.

Iran International reported that a Lloyd's Insurance leak revealed the scheme was coordinated by the IRGC Quds Force and Hezbollah. Gold sold in Turkey and the Middle East generated proceeds that funded Hezbollah operations. Some nine tons of Venezuelan gold were exported in a single month, according to Bloomberg. In return, five Iranian oil tankers delivered an estimated 1.5 million barrels of gasoline to Venezuelan ports.

But gold is heavy. It's traceable. It can be seized. The next step was converting it into something that couldn't be touched.

Sources describe a systematic effort to convert gold proceeds into Bitcoin through OTC brokers in Turkey and the UAE—brokers who asked few questions and operated outside the traditional banking system. The Bitcoin was then moved through mixers, software that obscures the origin of cryptocurrency transactions, and into cold wallets: offline storage devices that exist beyond the reach of any government or exchange.

The timing was fortuitous. Venezuela began moving gold in earnest in 2018, when Bitcoin traded between $3,000 and $10,000. By the time the price peaked at $69,000 in November 2021, any holdings accumulated in those early years had multiplied by a factor of seven to twenty. If the regime converted even $3 billion in gold proceeds to Bitcoin at an average price of $5,000, those holdings would be worth $40 billion today.

PDVSA headquarters. By December 2025, Venezuela was collecting 80% of its oil revenue in USDT.

The crypto infrastructure didn't stop with gold. Venezuela's own PDVSA-Cripto corruption scandal revealed that Saab's partner Álvaro Pulido—David's father—used Tether-based settlement systems to divert billions in oil-sale proceeds. Between 2020 and 2022, PDVSA increasingly required intermediaries to settle oil cargos in Tether, routing payments through OTC brokers and private digital wallets.

The scandal revealed ships loaded with more than $20 billion worth of oil departing Venezuelan ports without payment ever reaching PDVSA. By December 2025, Venezuela was collecting 80% of its oil revenue in USDT. Tether has frozen 41 wallets containing $119 million linked to Venezuela—but that represents only what authorities have been able to trace.

The Architect

To understand how this system was built, you have to understand the man who built it.

Alex Saab was born in Barranquilla, Colombia, in 1971. He spent the 1990s running modest textile businesses. His career changed when he partnered with Álvaro Pulido, who was involved in drug trafficking and invited Saab to do business in Venezuela. Colombian left-wing senator Piedad Córdoba—who died in January 2024—introduced Saab to Maduro.

The contracts that followed were staggering in their brazenness. In 2011, Saab agreed to supply parts for 25,000 prefabricated houses under "Gran Mision Vivienda Venezuela." The contract paid up to four times the actual cost. His company received $159 million to import housing kits but delivered only $3 million worth of products.

In 2016, when the regime launched the CLAP program to distribute subsidized food to families in need, Saab and Pulido built a network to exploit it. They sourced low-quality food from foreign suppliers, assembled the boxes abroad, and shipped them to Venezuela at inflated prices. To move funds and conceal the scheme, they used shell companies in Hong Kong, the UAE, and Turkey. The U.S. Treasury designated these networks in July 2019, calling them a "corruption network stealing from Venezuela's food program."

Alex Saab's network spans shell companies, government officials, and international intermediaries across multiple continents.

Zair Mundaray, a former Venezuelan prosecutor who investigated Saab, told Whale Hunting that Saab slipped into Maduro's inner circle precisely because he had no loyalties outside it. Unlike other power brokers in Caracas, Saab was not tied to any traditional political families or factions.

"Saab fits the profile of someone with no links to Venezuela's traditional castes or power groups, whose only real connection is to the presidential family," Mundaray said. "In Venezuela, power operates much more like a criminal cartel than an institutional structure. That creates a climate of mutual distrust and internal power struggles."

Saab's goal was simple: to make money, "and he found the perfect platform in a president who is himself a criminal."

But Saab became more than a contractor. He became the guarantor of Maduro's fortune.

"As the public and private spheres ultimately merge, there's no distinction," Mundaray said. "Saab is the guarantor of Maduro's fortune — money dispersed across multiple countries and stored in different convertible assets that ensure him a life of luxury for generations, without ever lifting a finger."

In April 2018, Maduro made it official, appointing Saab as Special Envoy with "broad powers to carry out actions on behalf of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela." He was no longer a contractor. He was a diplomat.

The Double Agent

Saab was arrested during a refueling stop in Cabo Verde, off the coast of West Africa, en route to Iran.

On June 12, 2020, Saab's plane touched down on the volcanic island of Sal in Cabo Verde for what should have been a routine refueling stop. He was en route to Iran. Instead, local authorities arrested him at the request of the United States.

The U.S. Department of Justice had unsealed an eight-count indictment charging Saab and Pulido with laundering more than $350 million through U.S. bank accounts. But then came the twist that no one expected.

Court documents reviewed by Whale Hunting revealed that Saab had also cooperated with U.S. law enforcement—providing information on bribe payments made to high-level Venezuelan officials.

Saab entered into a cooperative source agreement with the Drug Enforcement Administration on June 27, 2018—the same year Maduro appointed him Special Envoy. He met with U.S. law enforcement officials in August and September 2016, November 2017, June and July 2018, and April 2019. He also made four payments totaling over $12.5 million to DEA-controlled accounts to disgorge profits from his bribery schemes.

He was building Maduro's shadow financial empire while simultaneously informing on it.

In December 2023, President Biden negotiated his release in exchange for ten American prisoners held in Venezuela, including one close to our hearts: Leonard “Fat Leonard” Francis (subject of our Fat Leonard podcast, listen here). Saab received a presidential pardon and was required to leave the United States permanently. He landed in Caracas to a hero's welcome. Maduro embraced him publicly. Within weeks, Saab was appointed Minister of Industry and National Production.

He was once again at the center of Venezuela's survival architecture. Until this morning.

Who Has the Keys?

Venezuela's crypto infrastructure may outlast the regime that built it.

With Maduro in custody and facing drug trafficking charges in Manhattan, the question is no longer whether the regime can survive. It's whether its stolen fortune can be recovered—or whether it will vanish into the blockchain, accessible only to those who hold the keys.

The old sanctions-evasion toolkit—ships, banks, front companies—still exists. But the new one runs on stablecoins, OTC brokers, private digital wallets, and bilateral deals with governments that have no incentive to cooperate with U.S. enforcement.

Sources describe a Swiss lawyer who allegedly controls access to the wallets. The keys may be distributed across multiple people, multiple jurisdictions, multiple layers of security designed to survive exactly this scenario: the capture of the regime's leader.

David Nicolas Rubio Gonzalez was sanctioned in 2019 but never publicly charged. His father was indicted. He was not. If sources are correct that he served as a courier—physically moving the gold that became the crypto fortune—then he may know exactly where the money went. Is he secretly cooperating with U.S. authorities? Under sealed indictment? Or has he disappeared with knowledge that could unlock billions?

And then there is Saab himself. A man who has already cooperated with the DEA once. A man who was pardoned by one American president and may now be the most valuable intelligence asset for another. A man who, according to a former Venezuelan prosecutor, is "the guarantor of Maduro's fortune."

Where is Alex Saab?

Where is David Rubio Gonzalez?

And who has the keys to as much as $60 billion in Bitcoin?

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 14:00

9.3 Million Americans Work Multiple Jobs To Make Ends Meet

Zero Hedge -

9.3 Million Americans Work Multiple Jobs To Make Ends Meet

Imagine getting home from your nine-to-five job to have dinner with your family, maybe read a bedtime story and put your kids to bed.

But instead of winding down on the couch afterwards, you get ready and start your second workday.

That’s the daily reality for millions of Americans, for whom one job is no longer enough to pay rent, put food on the table and cover other expenses.

As Statista's Felix Richter reports below, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 9.3 million Americans reported working multiple jobs in November 2025 – the highest number ever recorded since the BLS started tracking multiple jobholders in 1994.

 9.3 Million Americans Work Multiple Jobs to Make Ends Meet | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

In relative terms, 5.7 percent of employed Americans worked more than one job last month, which is also the highest share in 25 years.

Only in the mid-1990s, when the workforce was considerably smaller than it is today, was the share of multiple job holders higher, peaking at 6.5 percent in November 1996.

But whereas in 1996, around two thirds of multiple jobholders were not college-educated and presumably worked in low-wage occupations, half of those working more than one job now do hold a college degree, indicating that even an advanced degree no longer guarantees a job that pays well enough to make ends meet.

There are several reasons behind this trend, the most important one being economic necessity: several years of elevated inflation have left a legacy of high prices while wages have barely kept up. Housing costs, for example, have risen 28 percent over the past five years, while wages have only increased 24 percent. That leaves many families financially strained, especially as the prices of other necessities, food in particular, have also outpaced wage growth.

Another reason for the rise in multiple jobholders is the changing labor market: for one, the rise of remote jobs has made it easier for many people to work a second job, possibly from home.

Then there’s the availability of jobs in general: for large parts of the past few years, the number of job openings has vastly exceeded the number of job seekers, leaving workers willing to earn an extra paycheck with plenty of options.

And finally, the gig economy has created new opportunities for people to complement their income, offering flexible work schedules and relative freedom. As our chart shows, most multiple jobholders have one full-time and one part-time job, while two full-time jobs is the rarest form of multiple employment.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 13:25

Five Takeaways From The US' "Special Military Operation" In Venezuela

Zero Hedge -

Five Takeaways From The US' "Special Military Operation" In Venezuela

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

It was astoundingly successful and will likely serve to coerce the rest of the hemisphere into strategically capitulating to the US...

The US launched a half-hour-long “special military operation” in Venezuela on Saturday morning that culminated in Delta Force’s capture of President Nicolas Maduro. Several military sites were bombed, US helicopters flew freely over Caracas in a surreal display of the US’ aerial supremacy, and there were reportedly no US casualties. The US’ “special military operation” was therefore an astounding success regardless of one’s personal opinions about its merits. Here are five takeaways from this event:

1. The US’ Grand Strategic Goal Is To Build “Fortress America”

It was assessed here that the National Security Strategy’s prioritization of the Western Hemisphere is all about building “Fortress America”, which refers to the restoration of the US’ hegemony over the Americas in order for it to survive and even thrive if it loses control of the Eastern Hemisphere. It might not happen right away, but the US’ “special military operation” will likely result in it obtaining control over Venezuela’s oil reserves, the world’s largest. That would help make “Fortress America” a reality.

2. Maduro Should Have Taken Trump’s Deal In Hindsight

Trump earlier claimed that Maduro had “offered everything” to the US when asked about a report that the Venezuelan leader agreed to let American companies take control of his country’s resources. The only sticking point appeared to be Maduro’s political fate, with Trump wanting him to go into exile likely at the urging of Marco Rubio (his powerful Secretary of State and National Security Advisor), while Maduro seemingly refused. He should have taken Trump’s deal in hindsight to avoid this humiliating end.

3. The Ayatollah Is Likely Watching Everything Very Closely

Trump recently threatened military action against Iran in support of its latest protest movement, which assembled in response to the country’s deteriorating economy but is suspected of being orchestrated in part by foreign spy agencies in collusion with local agents. The US clearly wants Iran’s complete strategic capitulation after its arguable loss to Israel during last summer’s 12-day war, and if the US doesn’t get what it wants through diplomacy or a Color Revolution, then it might try to capture the Ayatollah too.

4. Adversarial Media Will Likely Try To Discredit Russia

Venezuela has an estimated $20 billion worth of Soviet/Russian arms, including Sukhoi fighter jets and S-300 surface-to-air missiles, yet none were used against the US (possibly due to it buying off top defense officials). Russia and Venezuela also ratified a strategic partnership pact late last year too, but it importantly didn’t contain any mutual defense clauses. Nevertheless, these two factors will likely be exploited by adversarial media to discredit Russia after the US’ “special military operation” in Venezuela.

5. Top Alt-Media Figures Once Again Discredited Themselves

Some top Alt-Media figures lie about the subjects of their geopolitical devotion like when they lied about how the Iranian-led “Resistance Axis” would destroy Israel in a war prior to their defeat at its hands last year. Many of the “usual suspects” did the same with regard to what Venezuela would do if the US attacked it, only to have once again discredited themselves, but Tim Anderson takes the cake after lying that Russia gave Venezuela Oreshniks with the innuendo that they’d be used if it was attacked.

The US’ astoundingly successful “special military operation” in Venezuela is a monumental geopolitical development that’ll likely serve to coerce the rest of the hemisphere into strategically capitulating to it, which could lead to “Fortress America’s” construction at an accelerated pace.

Iran might soon follow Venezuela even if the Ayatollah isn’t captured like Maduro just was.

The common thread between them is that the US has decided to take out its weaker adversaries across the world who refuse to submit to it.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 12:50

America's New "Value Menu" Economy Should Worry You

Zero Hedge -

America's New "Value Menu" Economy Should Worry You

Authored by Peter Reagan,

The hottest restaurant items of 2025 aren’t gourmet burgers – they’re value meals. When eating out turns into a budgeting exercise, it reveals something deeper about inflation, the rising cost of living and the quiet erosion of our quality of life…

Restaurants have been a constant of human life for centuries, from roadside taverns serving weary travelers to dining rooms built to impress the wealthy.

Every city, town, and village has one. Even places too small for a post office usually have somewhere to eat.

Today, restaurants are so ubiquitous that many towns have at least one drive-through, letting people grab a meal without leaving their car and eat it on the way back to work.

Because the industry is everywhere (and fiercely competitive), restaurants are always searching for the next angle to pull people through the door and persuade them to spend.

That’s why chains closely track which menu items sell best.

What’s surprising isn’t that they do this. No, it’s what those top-selling items are in 2025.

The hot new trend: Reading menus from right to left

Often, what’s “hot” especially in fancy restaurants is exotic, disgusting, gross or just plain expensive. I once watched an episode of Bizarre Foods where Andrew Zimmern ate a cobra heart. I’ve seen restaurants in LA that serve desserts covered in gold foil (I didn’t order one).

Well, it seems that, at least for now, those days are behind us. According to Amelia Lucas with CNBC, the hottest menu items for 2025 are “value” items. That’s right, budget foods, the ones that cost less or give more calories for your buck, those were the hottest items year-round.

This trend may explain why McDonald’s no longer carries a gourmet burger (which I thought was surprisingly good). Well, it wasn’t a budget product, so it had to go.

And McDonald’s isn’t the only chain cutting down to the bare budget basics. Not by a long shot.

And I bet you can guess why restaurant chains are focusing on the low end of their pricing spectrum. Lucas tells us that “diners, particularly those who make less than $40,000 a year, have been eating out less frequently and spending less money when they do.”

In fact, according to Lauren Clifford at Lending Tree85% of Americans surveyed said that they have changed “their dining out habits.” Nearly three out of five said they’re eating out less often.

They just can’t afford it. And when they do eat out, they order off the value menu.

One way of describing it that I found interesting: They read restaurant menus from right to left, checking the price to see if they can afford something before even checking to see if they actually want to eat it. If you’ve ever tried to impress someone by taking them to a restaurant you couldn’t afford, then you’ve probably done this yourself… I know I have. But now people are doing this all the time.

Eating out, which used to be an affordable reward at the end of a long work week, a small luxury that most Americans could enjoy? No longer. Most families can’t afford the temporary respite from cooking dinner for the family and cleaning up the kitchen afterwards.

Now, it’s an exercise in budgeting to even see if they can afford to eat at that restaurant.

Life on the value side

It probably comes as no surprise that more and more people are choosing to eat at home more often than eating out. Sure, Dave Ramsey may be proud of them for doing that, but that’s little consolation when it’s not a choice but a necessity.

The change in how Americans are eating doesn’t stop at the move to focusing on value menu items and eating out less. It is also affecting how people are eating at home. Clifford notes that nearly nine out of ten Americans surveyed “are changing the way they shop to fight inflated grocery bills.” And over 60% of those surveyed said they were stressed about the possibility of not being able to buy enough groceries within the month before the survey.

That’s just appalling. How many mothers and fathers does that include who are scared that they won’t be able to feed junior and their precious little girl? Worse still, earlier this month I read that a shocking 60% of families report skipping meals to save money. Nearly half have delayed payments on such essential expenses as utilities and rent.

Back in November, a survey found that 1 in 5 Americans said they’d taken out a loan to pay bills or rent. (And almost half said they weren’t sure they could pay it back.)

People working hard now are having difficulty making ends meet, and people who’ve worked hard their entire lives are scared that they may have to just stop eating until their next check comes in.

I’m not telling you all this so we can just wring our hands about how much these people are suffering. Or so we can tut-tut and shake our heads and judge them for failing financially.

This trend is important for two reasons.

  • First, the big-picture, macroeconomic reason: Consumer spending makes up 2/3 of total GDP. When families cut back spending, it’s bad news for the economy. Often a sign of imminent recession.

  • Second, the small-picture, microeconomic reason: When we see bad things happen to others, it’s natural to ask how we can avoid such fates. So what can we do?

Failing to plan is planning to fail

It’s a scary situation to find yourself in if you have children and grandchildren to feed, especially if you’re retired, depending on a fixed income. Finding yourself in a situation in which you struggle to make the most basic purchases to maintain your standard of living (not even luxury) isn’t just stressful. It’s humiliating.

Most families aren’t in that situation because they weren’t willing to work hard. They aren’t in this position because they avoided responsibility, or made bad decisions. Most of them followed a conventional path. They just never realized how much inflation could quietly erode their purchasing power over time.

They’re struggling because no one ever taught them how inflation compounds over years and decades. Or how important it is to plan for rising prices, how futile it is to think about future spending in today’s dollars. And that blind spot is catching up with them today.

Sadly, many more Americans will likely find themselves in the same situation, struggling with basic expenses, because they never took steps to ensure a comfortable retirement. They never learned that one of the biggest pillars of a stable financial future is making sure that your savings can endure the inflation that never goes away.

You, however, are different. You’re seeing a first-hand example of how failing to plan for the future is planning to fail in the future. Hopefully it’s not too late to correct this trajectory. You can take action right now to secure your purchasing power by diversifying with inflation-resistant stores of wealth.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 11:40

Democrats Now Claim They Are The "Real" American Patriots

Zero Hedge -

Democrats Now Claim They Are The "Real" American Patriots

Leftists have never understood the phrase "If you can't beat em', join em'".  Instead, they believe that if they can't defeat their political opponents in terms of logic, reason, morals, facts or the law, then their next best bet is to co-opt the enemy's message and image without actually adopting their values..

Voters witnessed the first tinges of this strategy in 2024 when Kamala Harris claimed her campaign wasn't woke (after years of saying Americans needed to be more woke) and Tim Walz pretended to be manly by talking about football and masculinity without knowing anything about either subject.  

In 2025 going into 2026, however, the Democrats are taking their Talented Mr. Ripley routine to the next level. They don't just want to compete with conservative messages, they are trying to steal the conservative identity by proclaiming themselves to be the "real" American patriots.

The new activist narrative (largely organized and funded by NGOs) runs with 1776 symbolism, claims that the US military is really on their side, argues that they are the true guardians of the constitution and that their revolution is one that the Founding Fathers would applaud.  

In tandem with the "No Kings" protests, Dems like Jasmine Crockett argued that MAGA is "unpatriotic" and anti-constitution.  She believes Democrats are the true patriots and that they are the barrier protecting Americans from "fascism."    

This theme has led to a number of protests which have abandoned woke symbols in favor of a carefully crafted "pro-America" costume. The theatrics often revolve around mass deportations of illegal aliens and lead to hilariously misguided grandstanding.

In a bizarre twist, leftists are proclaiming their patriotism by actively aiding a foreign invasion of the US. Democrat Rep. Hakeem Jeffries co-opted the words of Republican President Ulysses S. Grant as a strange justification for Democrat driven civil unrest, noting that "There are but two parties in America right now, patriots and traitors..." (conservatives, in his version of reality, being the traitors).  

Keep in mind, Democrat activists are the same people who have been celebrating the deconstruction of western culture for years and assert that the constitution is meaningless because it was "written by slave owners."

In 2022 at the height of their pandemic frenzy, Democrats in blue states and blue cities widely supported a flurry of freedom crushing mandates and pushed hard for the creation of a vaccine passport system which would effectively destroy the Bill of Rights by taking away citizen access to the economy if they refused to be injected with an experimental jab.

That same year, a Heartland Institute and Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey found that 48% of voters favored President Joe Biden’s plan to impose a COVID-19 vaccine mandate on the employees of large companies and government agencies.  The same survey showed that a disturbing number of Democrats also supported "Chinese-style" punishments for people who refused to take the jab.

Around 55% of Democrat voters were in favor of government enforced fines for the unvaccinated.  Nearly 60% supported forced home confinement for the unvaccinated.  48% of Democrats were in favor of fines and prison time for anyone who publicly questioned the efficacy of the vaccines.  Around 45% of Democrats supported the idea of confining the unvaccinated to "designated facilities" (covid camps) until they complied.  47% of Democrats favored the use of digital tracking for the unvaccinated.

Around 30% of progressive voters suggested taking children away from parents who refused to vaccinate.  The Biden Administration and Democrats were exposed for violating constitutional law in their efforts to pressure social media companies to silence and censor conservative critics of covid policies (among other things). 

Anyone who stood against the mandates was accused of being a threat to democracy and a potential terrorist.  The Democrats initiated a propaganda war against US patriots; a war which they ultimately lost.  Now, they want you to forget all about their many trespasses and accept their new image as "freedom fighters" saving the country from Trump's tyrannical policies...which the majority of Americans voted for.   

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 11:05

Maduro And His Wife Indicted In US Federal Court; To "Finally... Face Justice For His Crimes"

Zero Hedge -

Maduro And His Wife Indicted In US Federal Court; To "Finally... Face Justice For His Crimes"

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were indicted in the Southern District of New York, U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi announced early on Jan. 3.

“Nicolás Maduro has been charged with Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy, Cocaine Importation Conspiracy, Possession of Machineguns and Destructive Devices, and Conspiracy to Possess Machineguns and Destructive Devices against the United States,” Bondi said on X.

“They will soon face the full wrath of American justice on American soil in American courts.”

Bondi issued the statement hours after Maduro and Flores were captured and extracted by U.S. armed forces in Caracas in the early hours of Jan. 3.

“On behalf of the entire U.S. DOJ, I would like to thank President [Donald] Trump for having the courage to demand accountability on behalf of the American People, and a huge thank you to our brave military who conducted the incredible and highly successful mission to capture these two alleged international narco traffickers.”

Bondi’s announcement follows statements made by Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) who said he was told by Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the strike on Venezuela’s capital was a means to protect law enforcement as they carried out an arrest warrant for Maduro.

Lee added that Rubio also told him that Maduro was “arrested by U.S. personnel to stand trial on criminal charges in the United States.”

Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau also emphasized that Maduro was expected to face legal action.

“The tyrant is gone,” Landau said on social media.

“He will now—finally—face justice for his crimes.”

In 2020, Maduro and 14 other Venezuelan officials were charged with narco-terrorism, corruption, drug trafficking and other charges in New York City, Miami, and Washington, D.C.

“The scope and magnitude of the drug trafficking alleged was made possible only because Maduro and others corrupted the institutions of Venezuela and provided political and military protection for the rampant narco-terrorism crimes described in our charges,” U.S. Attorney Geoffrey S. Berman said in the 2020 press release.

“As alleged, Maduro and the other defendants expressly intended to flood the United States with cocaine in order to undermine the health and wellbeing of our nation. Maduro very deliberately deployed cocaine as a weapon.

The Epoch Times reached out to the Department of Justice to clarify whether Bondi was referring to this 2020 indictment or not.

As Jonathan Turley reports, this operation will be justified as executing the criminal warrant and responding to an international drug cartel, a very similar legal framework to the one used against Noriega in 1989. There is precedent supporting that earlier operation, which will now be used to defend the actions in Venezuela.

Here is part of the earlier description from the Justice Department of the indicted conduct:

Maduro helped manage and ultimately lead the Cartel of the Suns, a Venezuelan drug-trafficking organization comprised of high-ranking Venezuelan officials. As he gained power in Venezuela, Maduro participated in a corrupt and violent narco-terrorism conspiracy with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization.  Maduro negotiated multi-ton shipments of FARC-produced cocaine; directed the Cartel of the Suns to provide military-grade weapons to the FARC; coordinated with narcotics traffickers in Honduras and other countries to facilitate large-scale drug trafficking; and solicited assistance from FARC leadership in training an unsanctioned militia group that functioned, in essence, as an armed forces unit for the Cartel of the Suns. In March 2020, Maduro was charged in the Southern District of New York for narco-terrorism, conspiracy to import cocaine, possession of machine guns and destructive devices, and conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices.”

Ordinarily, the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations and other international agreements require the United States to notify the embassy of a foreign national arrested and held in the United States. Notice seems a tad superfluous in this case.

In his appeal, Noriega argued that his arrest violated international law under the head-of-state immunity doctrine.  The district court rejected Noriega’s head-of-state immunity claim because the United States government never recognized Noriega as Panama’s legitimate ruler — an argument that will be made in the Maduro prosecution.

The United States for the Eleventh Circuit also rejected the immunity claim.

Noriega also argued that his capture violated the Treaty Providing for the Extradition of Criminals, May 25, 1904, United States of America-Republic of Panama, 34 Stat. 2851 (“U.S.-Panama Extradition Treaty”). The Supreme Court’s decision in United States v. Alvarez-Machain, 504 U.S. 655 (1992), however, was found to bar this argument. The issue was whether he was abducted to the United States with a superseding extradition treaty. The Eleventh Circuit held:

The article of the U.S.-Panama Extradition Treaty upon which Noriega relies for his extradition treaty claim contains almost the same language as the provision of the U.S.-Mexico Extradition Treaty at issue in Alvarez-Machain. See U.S.-Panama Extradition Treaty, art. 5 (“Neither of the contracting parties shall be bound to deliver up its own citizen or subject ․”)…

Under Alvarez-Machain, to prevail on an extradition treaty claim, a defendant must demonstrate, by reference to the express language of a treaty and/or the established practice thereunder, that the United States affirmatively agreed not to seize foreign nationals from the territory of its treaty partner. Noriega has not carried this burden, and therefore, his claim fails.

The Noriega case offers ample support for the Trump Administration, which has had an outstanding arrest warrant for over five years. He is not viewed as the duly elected leader of Venezuela and has been tied to a criminal drug cartel.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 10:30

MiB: Stephanie Drescher, Apollo Chief Client and Product Development Officer

The Big Picture -



 

 

This week, I speak with Stephanie Drescher, Apollo’s Chief Client and Product Development Officer and a member of the Firm’s Leadership Team. We discuss her start at JP Morgan, and why creating company culture is so crucial. We also discussed how Apollo manages performance and balance sheets.

The increased interest in private markets for investor portfolios, and how and investment decisions get made are a crucial part of our conversation.

Her current reading list is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Monday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Nobel laureate Richard Thaler and his University of Chicago Booth School colleague Alex Imas on the update and reissue of his classic book The Winner’s Curse.

 

 

Current Reading

 

 

 

 

The post MiB: Stephanie Drescher, Apollo Chief Client and Product Development Officer appeared first on The Big Picture.

America's Low-Wage Workers Aren't All High-School Dropouts

Zero Hedge -

America's Low-Wage Workers Aren't All High-School Dropouts

Despite a strong labor market and rising nominal wages, there are still millions of people taking home less than $20 per hour on average.

Education plays a major role in determining earnings, but it does not guarantee high wages—or even employment.

This chart, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, shows the share and number of U.S. low-wage workers earning less than $20 per hour by education level, using data from the Economic Policy Institute as of July 2025.

Low-Wage Work Is Concentrated Among Less-Educated Workers

Workers without a high school diploma face the greatest exposure to low wages. Roughly two-thirds of this group—about 6.9 million people—earn less than $20 per hour, reflecting limited access to higher-paying occupations and fewer opportunities for advancement.

The table below breaks down low-wage workers by education level:

Among workers whose highest education is a high school diploma, 43% earn under $20 per hour. This group represents the largest number of low-wage workers overall, totaling nearly 15.9 million people.

Even some college education offers only partial protection. More than one-third of workers with some college (but no completed degree) earn below the $20 threshold, amounting to 12.9 million workers.

College Degrees Don’t Eliminate Low Wages

Higher education significantly lowers the likelihood of earning under $20 per hour, but it does not eliminate it. About 12% of workers with a college or advanced degree, roughly 7.2 million people, still fall below this pay level.

Overall, while education remains one of the strongest determinants of earnings, income outcomes depend on various factors, including industry mix, regional costs of living, and labor market conditions.

If you found this interesting, explore more labor market and income visuals on Voronoi, including U.S. States With the Most Low-Wage Workers.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 09:55

How Global Economic Power Has Shifted Over The Past 45 Years

Zero Hedge -

How Global Economic Power Has Shifted Over The Past 45 Years

Over the past four decades, the global economic hierarchy has undergone profound change.

Some economies have grown steadily, others have surged, and a few have slipped down the rankings as new players emerged.

In the following visualization, Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte charts the world’s top economies from 1980 to 2025.

The data for this visualization comes from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (October 2025). GDP figures are measured in current U.S. dollars and are not adjusted for inflation.

The United States Remains on Top

Since 1980, the United States has consistently ranked as the world’s largest economy. Its GDP rose from about $2.9 trillion in 1980 to more than $30.6 trillion by 2025. While its global share has fluctuated, the U.S. has maintained its lead due to a large domestic market, deep capital markets, and sustained productivity growth.

China represents the most dramatic structural change in the global economy over the past 45 years.

In 1980, it ranked outside the top five, with GDP just over $300 billion. By 2010, China had already surpassed Germany and Japan, and by 2025 it stands firmly as the world’s second-largest economy at nearly $19.4 trillion.

Japan dominated the global economy in the late 1980s and early 1990s, briefly narrowing the gap with the United States. However, slower growth and demographic headwinds caused it to lose ground, falling to fourth place by 2025.

Europe’s largest economies—Germany, the United Kingdom, and France—have remained among the top 10.

Emerging Markets Gain Ground

Beyond China, several emerging economies climbed into the top ranks. India’s GDP expanded from under $200 billion in 1980 to more than $4.1 trillion in 2025, placing it among the world’s five largest economies.

Outside of the top 10, countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, and Türkiye have also moved up the rankings, reflecting faster growth than many advanced economies over the long run.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Global GDP Growth Projections in 2025 on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 08:45

Schedule for Week of January 4, 2026

Calculated Risk -

The key reports this week are the December employment report and Housing Starts for September and October.

Other key indicators include the November Trade Deficit, November Job Openings, December ISM Manufacturing and December Vehicle Sales.

----- Monday, January 5th -----
Vehicle SalesEarly: Light vehicle sales for December.

The consensus is for 15.5 million SAAR in December, down from 15.6 million SAAR in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. 
The dashed line is the current sales rate.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for December.  The consensus is for 48.3%, up from 48.2%.

----- Tuesday, January 6th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Wednesday, January 7th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. This will be two weeks of data.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 50,000, up from -32,000 jobs added in November.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in October to 7.67 million from 7.66 million in September.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for December.

----- Thursday, January 8th -----
U.S. Trade Deficit 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $59.4 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $52.8 billion in September.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 205K, up from 199K.

----- Friday, January 9th -----
Employment per month8:30 AM: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.5%.

There were 64,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.6%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts8:30 AM: Housing Starts for September and October.

This graph shows single and total housing starts since 2000.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for January)

12:00 PM: Q3 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

Germany's Family Businesses Warn: Taxes, Energy Costs, And Bureaucracy Are Killing Competitiveness

Zero Hedge -

Germany's Family Businesses Warn: Taxes, Energy Costs, And Bureaucracy Are Killing Competitiveness

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

At the turn of the year, the Foundation for Family Businesses, together with the ifo Institute, presented a corporate survey on tax policy and location attractiveness. The result is unequivocal: Germany is too expensive and no longer competitive as a business location.

There is nothing new under the sun. In their year-end Annual Monitor, the Foundation for Family Businesses and the ifo Institute once again went straight to the heart of the matter. A total of 1,705 companies across all sectors and size categories were surveyed on their assessment of current tax policy and Germany’s attractiveness as a business location. The evaluation of this corporate panel—1,358 of which were traditional family-owned businesses—turned out to be devastating, as expected.

Overburdened Labor Factor

More than 80 percent of companies perceive the overall tax and contribution burden—particularly in the area of personnel costs, i.e., wage taxes and social security contributions—as far too high. The heavy burden on the employee side is especially criticized by smaller family-owned businesses. It has become increasingly difficult to grant wage increases when the fiscal authorities take the lion’s share and key performers are bled ever more heavily with each pay raise due to the continuous increase in social security contribution ceilings.

This assessment is shared by Professor Rainer Kirchdörfer, member of the Foundation’s executive board, who comments on the study:
“Our new Annual Monitor shows just how much employers and employees are pulling in the same direction. It is precisely the high taxes on labor that paralyze both sides and drain the joy from performance. High-tax Germany has also lost ground here.”

Two-thirds of surveyed executives complain about excessive income tax rates. Income tax is particularly relevant for partnerships—and by international standards it is clearly too high. A recurring grievance is also the complexity of Germany’s tax system. The familiar quip holds that roughly two-thirds of global tax law literature originates in the Federal Republic. Even if exaggerated, the message is clear: Germany is a bureaucrat’s paradise.

Currently, 5.4 million people work in the public sector—around half a million more than five years ago. This despite technological progress, artificial intelligence, and increasing automation of internal processes.

The Bureaucracy Reduction Classic

A tangible reduction in bureaucracy, including tax law, has been overdue for decades. Yet no federal government dares to tackle this hot potato. German bureaucracy has grown too powerful, evolving at all levels into a state within the state. At the same time, policymakers view the public sector as a kind of buffer for a labor market that has slowly but steadily tipped.

As a reminder: over the past three years, German companies have been forced to create 325,000 additional jobs merely to cope with the ever-expanding bureaucratic workload. The state is effectively outsourcing its ballooning documentation, archiving, and compliance requirements to the private sector.

Ranked second and third among entrepreneurs’ main points of criticism are rising local business taxes (Gewerbesteuer) and energy-related levies. Both factors are likely to play a significant role in 2026. Municipal budgets, paralyzed by a cumulative deficit of €35 billion last year, are virtually screaming for sharp increases in local business tax rates.

This threatens to trigger a tax-driven recessionary spiral initiated by local governments seeking short-term relief—particularly in regions hard hit by the industrial downturn, such as the automotive hubs of Stuttgart, Ingolstadt, and Wolfsburg.

Additional Pressure from Energy Levies

As of January 1, 2026, under the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG), the CO₂ price corridor will rise to between €55 and €65 per ton. This represents another substantial erosion of Germany’s economic substance, as it struggles to keep energy-intensive production in the country amid intensifying competition with China and the United States.

Entrepreneurs’ demands are clear: a reduction in the electricity tax is long overdue as a first step toward restoring the competitiveness of German industry. The abolition of the solidarity surcharge, alongside an accelerated reduction in corporate taxes, also ranks high on the business community’s wish list for the coming year.

Germany is too expensive as a business location by OECD standards. Since 2018, this has also become evident in overall economic productivity, which has stagnated and even declined slightly in recent quarters.

Valid Criticism, But the Root Problem Remains Untouched

There is no question that entrepreneurs are correct in their assessment of fiscal overburdening on companies and private households. The German state has expanded excessively and—given steadily rising public debt—is increasingly living at the expense of future generations.

What is striking, however, is what the study fails to address. Neither the billion-euro follow-up costs of migration into Germany’s welfare system nor the fiscal and real-economic consequences of centrally planned climate policy are included in the assessment. Yet both factors significantly contribute to rising tax burdens and have sustainably weakened Germany’s industrial base.

What has materialized in energy costs—burdens sometimes three times higher than those in competing locations such as France or the United States—must become the subject of a broad public debate if a return to rational economic policy is ever to be possible.

Under the current federal government led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, this appears fundamentally out of reach.

If not Germany’s economic middle class, who should initiate such a debate openly and courageously? We are still waiting for the icebreaker capable of overcoming the dogma of the alleged lack of alternatives in climate policy in a practical, rational, and unresentful manner. And it remains all too easy for policymakers, operating in an entrenched mode of accelerated debt accumulation, to align incentive structures and a lavishly funded subsidy machine in such a way that any critical voice from the business sector is ultimately silenced.

In the end, the study delivers a rapid situational assessment from which the familiar criticism emerges—criticism that, at all costs, seeks to avoid a collision with an ideologically hardened climate-socialist policy.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/03/2026 - 07:00

10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture -

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

The Era Of The Business Idiot: We live in the era of the symbolic executive, when “being good at stuff” matters far less than the appearance of doing stuff, where “what’s useful” is dictated not by outputs or metrics that one can measure but rather the vibes passed between managers and executives that have worked their entire careers to escape the world of work. Our economy is run by people that don’t participate in it and our tech companies are directed by people that don’t experience the problems they allege to solve for their customers, as the modern executive is no longer a person with demands or responsibilities beyond their allegiance to shareholder value. (Where’s Your Ed At?)

Buy-Side Quant Job Advice: Now, let’s really start. If you are of legal age and are into it, now is an excellent time to grab a stiff drink. (Consumed by fire)

Appreciation for Air Jordans: 40 shoes, 40 years, multiple stories to tell: There was a time when the Air Jordan shoe was a basketball-only staple. The best ballplayers — whether scoring buckets in an NBA arena, a fitness gym or even a popular blacktop court outdoors — would have the shoes draped around their necks, shoelaces tied together. Somewhere down the road, those shoes began living a double life. They became lounging kicks. (New York Times)

Your Key Survival Skill for 2026: Critical Ignoring: In an age of endless low-quality information, it’s time to fight our instinct to seek out and absorb all we can. It takes practice. (Wall Street Journal)

Why does something exist instead of nothing? Perhaps the most remarkable fact about the Universe is simply that it, and everything in it, exists. But what’s the reason why? (Starts With A Bang) see also Reality is evil: Everything eats and is eaten. Everything destroys and is destroyed. It is our moral duty to strike back at the Universe. (Aeon)

The U.S. may have a secret weapon against rising electricity prices: Most of the year, grid utilization is around 50 percent. Could that be used to lower prices? (Washington Post)

‘I Was Just So Naïve’: Inside Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Break With Trump: How the Georgia congresswoman went from the president’s loudest cheerleader to his loudest Republican critic. (New York Times) see also What makes something a cult? Here is what our data say . (Clearer Thinking)

•  Why Everyone Loves Japan Part III of my book on the Japanese economy. (Noahpinion)

The triumph of logical: English prose has become much easier to read. But shorter sentences had little to do with it. (Works in Progress) see also The Lost Art of Research as Leisure: Where have the amateur researchers gone, and how do we bring them back? (Kasurian)

The Inconceivable Start to Rob Reiner’s Legendary Movie Career: The director began with a hot streak of seven movies in eight years, including perhaps his most beloved of all: ‘The Princess Bride.’ (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Stephanie Drescher, Apollo’s Chief Client and Product Development Officer. She oversees everything from the global wealth business to portfolio management, product development, and client marketing. She is a member of the firm’s leadership team. Since 2020, Barron’s has named her annually to its list of the 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance.

 

Equities outside the US outperformed this year for the first time in awhile; its not entirely a dollar story

Source: @bobeunlimited

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Weekend Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Ex-CIA Analyst: Neocons Prematurely Celebrate Over Protests In Iran

Zero Hedge -

Ex-CIA Analyst: Neocons Prematurely Celebrate Over Protests In Iran

Authored by former CIA officer Larry Johnson

Western media, especially those outlets firmly aligned with the neoconservative view, are quick to jump on reports of protests in Iran as a sign that the Islamic Republic of Iran is about to implode. Events today in Iran provided another spurt of arousal among neocons longing to bring back the Shah and eliminate the mullahs.

Here’s a summary of the various news reports:

On December 30, 2025, protests in Iran entered their third day, spreading from initial economic grievances in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar to universities and multiple cities across the country. Triggered by the Iranian rial plunging to record lows (around 1.38–1.42 million to the USD) and inflation hitting 42.2–42.5%, demonstrations began with shopkeepers and merchants striking and closing businesses, evolving into broader anti-government chants.

Protests expanded beyond Tehran to cities including Isfahan, Shiraz, Mashhad, Hamadan, Karaj, Qeshm, Malard, Kermanshah, and Yazd. University students joined on Tuesday, chanting slogans like “Death to the dictator” (referring to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei), calls for freedom, and pro-monarchy references (e.g., “Long live the Shah” or “Rest in peace Reza Shah”).

President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged “legitimate demands,” instructed the interior ministry to dialogue with protest representatives, and pledged economic reforms. The central bank governor resigned, replaced by Abdolnasser Hemmati. Officials offered talks but warned against escalation or foreign exploitation.

Hmmm… What’s really going on? Turns out that Nima Alkorshid, the host of Dialogue Works, is on an extended family vacation in Tehran. It has been 12 years since he was last in Iran. I know one thing for certain… His mom is thrilled to have her son, his wife and her grandchildren in Tehran. Anyway, I called Nima and asked him what he was seeing.

via Malta Today

According to Nima, there is frustration with the government, i.e., Pezeshkian, over the high inflation and that is one impetus driving the protests. However, it is not directed at the Islamic regime despite Western press reports claiming otherwise. Nima also pointed out that about 25% of the population is quite conservative (these are the folks who supported Ahmadinejad) and they are angry with Pezeshkian because he is viewed as too accommodating of the West.

These folks, while miffed at the government, are staunch supporters of the Ayatollah Khameni.

There is video evidence corroborating Nima’s observations. In one clip an Iranian student protester explains the reasoning behind the demonstrations, stating that they are not opposed to the Islamic Republic, but rather to corruption among government officials who are worsening the economic crisis. He says:

This is the voice of an Iranian Basiji. I would sacrifice myself for this homeland. I would give my life for the Islamic Republic. Our protest is against people like Ali Ansari and other corrupt officials. Mr. Ejei [Chief of the Judiciary], where are you?

I was pleasantly surprised by Pezeshkian’s reaction to the protests… Instead of beating the hell out of the protestors and tossing them into prison, he acknowledged the legitimacy of their complaints and fired the central bank governor while promising economic reforms. Seems like a pretty reasonable response to me.

I believe that Russia and China — who have denounced and rejected Europe’s attempt to reimpose economic sanctions on Iran — are working on measures to boost the Iranian economy and get inflation under control. While there is no denying that Iran’s economy has been badly damaged because of Western sanctions — which both Russia and China supported in 2015 as part of the JCPOA — Iran, by virtue of is membership in BRICS and closer economic, political and military ties with Russia and China, is in a stronger position now to revive the economy.

Russia’s economic support focuses on strategic partnerships and trade, and is often intertwined with military cooperation. In January 2025, Russia and Iran signed a 20-year comprehensive strategic partnership treaty, including provisions for economic cooperation. Russia also is providing advanced conventional weapons (e.g., fighter aircraft, attack helicopters) in exchange for Iranian drones, missiles, and ammunition, indirectly bolstering Iran’s economy through barter-like military trade.

Along with the economic cooperation, there have been five visits by four senior Iranian officials to Moscow since July 1, 2025, based on reported trips. These include political, military, and economic figures, with purposes ranging from nuclear discussions to military cooperation and strategic partnerships:

Ali Larijani (Supreme Leader Adviser, political) – July 20, 2025: Discussed nuclear negotiations and bilateral relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Brigadier General Aziz Nasir Zadeh (Defense Minister, military) – July 21, 2025: Met with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov to expand military cooperation, likely seeking assistance post-Israel-Iran conflict.

Abbas Araghchi (Foreign Minister, political) – August 2025: Sought Russian support in the aftermath of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iranian infrastructure following the ceasefire announcement. He made a second visit on December 17, 2025, to sign a foreign ministry cooperation plan for 2026-2028 and hail expanding partnerships.

Mohammad Reza Aref (First Vice President, political/economic) – November 17-18, 2025: Attended the SCO Council of Heads of Government meeting and held bilateral talks with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin on economic and political cooperation.

But that is not all… there is the North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). There have been multiple bilateral and multilateral meetings/discussions between Russia and Iran (often including Azerbaijan) since July 1, 2025, focused on advancing the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a multimodal trade route linking Russia, Iran, India, and beyond. Here are the key meetings in 2025:

October 2025: Trilateral talks in Baku (Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran) on expanding the western route of the INSTC, including infrastructure inspections and agreements on logistics/cross-border efficiency.

November 2025: Railway executives from Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan signed a memorandum in Baku to enhance the western route’s competitiveness (e.g., fixed pricing, unified rates).

December 12, 2025: Presidents Vladimir Putin and Masoud Pezeshkian discussed INSTC progress (including the Rasht-Astara railway) during a meeting in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan.

December 16, 2025: High-level talks in Tehran between Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani and Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister for Transport Vitaly Savelyev, emphasizing fast-tracking the corridor and removing obstacles.

And then there is China. China offers more substantial economic lifelines, mainly through oil trade and pledged investments, positioning itself as Iran’s largest trading partner. China purchases 90% (or nearly all) of Iran’s exported oil at discounted prices (as low as $14 per barrel below market), providing crucial revenue—estimated at $67 billion for the Iranian year ending March 2025 (15% of GDP). This accounts for 13.6% of China’s oil imports and funds 45% of Iran’s 2025–2026 government budget. Under the 2021 25-year comprehensive strategic partnership (reaffirmed in September 2025), China pledged $400 billion in investments for sectors like oil/gas, infrastructure, banking, telecom, ports, railways, and tourism. Infrastructure initiatives include a new railway for overland oil shipments (opened May 2025 but halted by war) and the first freight train from Xi’an to Iran’s Aprin dry port in May 2025. Discussions on economic corridors via Central Asia (e.g., May 2025 railway officials meeting) aim to enhance transit.

At least 3 senior Iranian officials (political and military) have visited China since July 1, 2025, based on publicly reported trips. These visits focused on multilateral summits (e.g., Shanghai Cooperation Organization events), bilateral cooperation, and post-conflict diplomacy following Iran’s tensions with Israel and the US:

Abbas Araghchi (Foreign Minister, political) — July 2025: Attended an SCO foreign ministers’ meeting in Tianjin and held bilateral talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on deepening ties and regional issues.

Masoud Pezeshkian (President, political) — September 1–2, 2025: Visited Beijing for the SCO Summit; met with President Xi Jinping to discuss comprehensive strategic partnership, trade, investment, and global governance.

Aziz Nasirzadeh (Defense Minister, military) — Late June 2025 (close to July threshold, often grouped in post-July reporting): Attended SCO defense ministers’ meeting in Qingdao; first reported foreign trip post-Israel conflict.

Iran’s efforts to resurrect a sound economy are being carried out under the shadow of renewed attacks by Israel and the United States. According to RT:

President Donald Trump warned the US could carry out further military strikes against Iran if it attempts to rebuild its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. He made the remarks to journalists alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida on Monday.

“If it’s confirmed, they know the consequences, and the consequences will be very powerful, maybe more powerful than the last time,” Trump said on Monday. “We’ll knock them down. We’ll knock the hell out of them. But hopefully that’s not happening.”

The US president indicated he would “absolutely” support Israeli military action against Iran’s missile program, saying the US would act “immediately” against any nuclear advances.

Rebuild ballistic missile programs? Looks like Donald Trump has not been informed that Iran’s ballistic missile programs were not destroyed during the 12-day war. Iran is not rebuilding… It is expanding and modernizing its ballistic missile force, which is safely stored below ground out of the reach of Israeli and US weapons. If Israel and Trump are foolish enough to attack Iran again, I think they will find Iran is a far more formidable and dangerous foe than the one they encountered in June 2025.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/02/2026 - 23:25

Beijing Wants Babies: Condoms, Contraceptive Drugs Hit With Double-Digit Tax To Boost Birth Rate

Zero Hedge -

Beijing Wants Babies: Condoms, Contraceptive Drugs Hit With Double-Digit Tax To Boost Birth Rate

In an effort to reverse China's sagging birth rate, Beijing has removed a three-decade tax exemption on contraceptives starting Jan. 1, when condoms and contraceptive pills will now incur a value-added tax of 13%, the standard rate for most consumer goods. 

The move comes after 2024 data marked the third consecutive year that birth rates have dropped - something experts have warned is likely to continue. Last year, China introduced an annual childcare subsidy, and exempted such subsidies from personal income tax amid a series of "fertility-friendly" measures implemented in 2024 - such as urging colleges and universities to provide "love education" to portray marriage, love, fertility and family in a positive light, Reuters reports.

Meanwhile, CCP leadership pledged in December at the annual Central Economic Work Conference to promote "positive marriage and childbearing attitudes." 

The country's birth rates have been falling for decades as a result of Beijing's one-child policy implemented from 1980 - 2015, along with rapid urbanization. 

High childcare and education costs along with job uncertainty and a slowing economy has also dissuaded young Chinese from getting married and starting a family. 

As Thomas Kolbe noted two weeks ago:

China is expected to lose about 20 percent of its population over the next 30 years.

There is no doubt this will have consequences for the global economy. Societies react reflexively to such developments. China responds with aggressive subsidies for its export engine to counter these domestic distortions, which primarily manifest economically as deflationary pressures.

China's attempt to course-correct comes as global fertility rates continue to plummet. Fertility rates (the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime) are different from birthrates (the number of live births per 1,000 people in a population over a given period), although the terms are related and often used interchangeably.

Meanwhile, look at who has the highest fertility rates: Somalia, Chad, Niger, DRC, and other African nations. Only about 4 percent of the world’s population reside in a country with a high fertility rate - more than five children per woman - and all of those nations are in Africa, the Census Bureau noted. Even in those countries, fertility rates are generally lower than they once were.

The fertility rate in India, the world’s most populous country, has steadily declined over the past six decades. In June, the UN Population Fund reported that India’s fertility rate stood at 1.9 children per woman, down from five or six children in 1960.

In 1990, China’s fertility rate was 2.51, despite its one child policy. By 2023, it had dropped to less than one birth per woman, according to the United Nation’s population division.

In the United States, fertility has undergone a persistent decline. It fell below the replacement level in 1972 and reached 1.62 in 2023, a historic low.

Asian and European countries have the lowest fertility rates in the world, and South Korea (0.72), Singapore (0.97), Ukraine (0.977), and China (0.999) all have rates below one.

Oh, and...

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/02/2026 - 23:00

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