Why This Matters The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) oversees recalls of medical devices that may present a risk to the health of users. The ramifications of using recalled devices—such as defective ventilators or pacemakers—include the potential for serious injury or death. FDA’s oversight of medical products, including devices, has been on GAO’s high-risk list since 2009. GAO Key Takeaways From fiscal years 2020 to 2024, FDA oversaw the recall of 3,934 medical devices. All were voluntarily recalled by manufacturers. FDA can mandate a recall, although it rarely does so. Insufficient staff limit FDA’s ability to conduct oversight activities, according to officials. For example, from fiscal years 2020 to 2024, FDA couldn’t meet its 3-month goal of terminating recalls (meaning FDA determines all reasonable efforts were made by the manufacturer to remove or correct the device) due to resource constraints. Some stakeholders said delays can affect patient care. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) oversees FDA and is currently undergoing reforms. Conducting workforce planning to determine the staffing and skills FDA needs for oversight would help HHS keep unsafe devices from continued use. According to officials, FDA cannot require manufacturers to adopt its recommendations for how to carry out certain recalls. Some stakeholders said manufacturers and FDA communicating different information can be confusing. FDA officials said it can also result in inefficient use of resources. By working with FDA to assess if additional authorities are needed, and seeking them if beneficial, HHS may be better positioned to address current recall process inefficiencies. Medical Device Recalls that Exceeded FDA’s 3-Month Termination Goal Note: Termination means FDA determines all reasonable efforts were made by the manufacturer to remove or correct the device. How GAO Did This Study We reviewed FDA policies and guidance on the recall process and analyzed data from FDA’s Recall Enterprise System. We also interviewed FDA officials and 10 stakeholder groups representing providers, patients, and the medical device industry to get their perspectives on challenges FDA faces in overseeing recalls.

Belgium Gets Cold Shoulder Ahead Of Russian Asset Confiscation

By Molly Schwartz, Cross-Asset Macro Strategist at Rabobank

The Cold Shoulder

Tensions remain high as Russia and Ukraine fail to reach a ceasefire agreement, even as U.S. pressure mounts. One key demand in Russia’s 20-point proposal is a full Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donbas region, a condition that runs counter to President Zelenskyy’s policy of refusing to cede any territory.

According to Bloomberg, Zelenskyy noted that the U.S. has floated the idea of designating the area a “free economic zone,” while Russia has called it a “demilitarized zone.” Zelenskyy would prefer that it remain a ‘Ukrainian zone,’ but has stated that the ultimate decision on Donbas will rest with the people, to be determined through a referendum or election.

Meanwhile, Russia is stirring concerns in Western Europe. NATO’s Mark Rutte warned EU member states yesterday that “[Europe] must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents and great-grandparents endured.” Speaking in Berlin, he emphasized that broader Europe is “Russia’s next target” and that the continent is “already in harm’s way.”

So while Europe pontificates about how important it is to strengthen their defense, they have turned to leveraging their financial chops. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU froze Russian assets. Should a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine come to fruition, Russia would like its money back…but the EU has other plans.

At next week’s EU Summit, European leaders will consider using frozen Russian assets to fund Ursula von der Leyen’s plan to cover part of Ukraine’s requirements for 2026 and 2027. As of now, much of the funding comes from interest generated on said frozen Russian assets. Russia is not thrilled about having their assets used for other purposes, calling it theft. While the EU argues that there is no “theft” as “the right of the Russian Central Bank to make a claim on its money and Euroclear’s duty to repay will remain in tact,” one key EU player is taking Russia’s side.

Prime Minister of Belgium, Bart De Wever voiced the following: “The European states pushing for the confiscation of Russian assets in Belgium are mostly those bordering Russia, which have experienced Soviet tyranny and are psychologically at war. But we are not at war with Russia. And we do not wish to be at war with Russia. We must negotiate based on reality, not fantasy. In reality, you don’t steal money from a foreign central bank. Stealing from a central bank is like robbing an embassy.”

Confiscating Russian assets could also complicate peace negotiations. Reducing incentives for the aggressor to agree to a ceasefire may not be the most effective strategy. For now, Belgium appears outnumbered and the EU seems poised to approve the measure.

But such insolence does not come without consequence. Indeed, rather than military intervention or Statecraft, Belgium may have to face something far worse should De Wever fail to come around…the cold shoulder.

As Belgium risks the cold shoulder, Putin is cozying up to Maduro, stomping on the sanctity of the “Donroe Doctrine.” Putin and Maduro spoke over the phone, with Putin promising Moscow’s support for Venezuela and Maduro’s government. The two leaders spoke by phone, with Putin pledging Moscow’s support for Venezuela and Maduro’s government. Weeks earlier, Maduro reportedly told Trump he would leave Venezuela if granted full legal amnesty for himself and his family.

The U.S., meanwhile, is ratcheting up pressure on Maduro. While the EU debates financial measures, Washington is signaling readiness for escalation. The U.S. has increased its military presence off Venezuela’s coast and recently seized a Venezuelan oil tanker. U.S. Attorney General Pamela Bondi announced on X that the tanker was seized under a warrant for transporting sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran, sharing video footage of the operation.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 11:15

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 6 December

he U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 6 December. ...

30 November through 6 December 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 57.2% (-3.2%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$160.11 (-0.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$91.57 (-3.7%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking well behind last year but is close to the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.
On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

Trump Says He Is Pardoning Former Colorado County Clerk Tina Peters

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said on Dec. 11 that he is pardoning Tina Peters, a former Colorado county clerk convicted of election machine tampering in the aftermath of the disputed 2020 election.

The presidential pardon of the Republican former officeholder appears to be symbolic.

The Pardons Clause of the U.S. Constitution says the president has the power to “grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offences against the United States.” The clause also allows presidents to grant preemptive pardons to individuals who have not yet been convicted of federal offenses.

Peters was convicted in Colorado state court in August 2024 of election-related charges, such as allowing unauthorized access to voting machines, and sentenced to nine years of incarceration.

Peters previously said on her website that her efforts as Mesa County clerk were aimed at upholding election integrity by “creating a forensic backdrop” of a county election server.

Trump wrote in a Truth Social post that Peters is incarcerated in a Colorado prison “for the ‘crime’ of demanding Honest Elections.”

“Democrats only think there is one crime—Not voting for them! Instead of protecting Americans and their Tax Dollars, Democrats chose instead to prosecute anyone they can find that wanted Safe and Secure Elections.”

Peters is “a Patriot who simply wanted to make sure that our Elections were Fair and Honest,” who is in prison “for the ‘crime’ of demanding Honest Elections,” the president wrote.

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, said the presidential pardon was invalid in Peters’s case.

Peters was convicted by a jury of breaking Colorado state laws, Polis wrote on X after Trump made his announcement.

Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser also said the presidential pardon was not legally binding.

“One of the most basic principles of our constitution is that states have independent sovereignty and manage our own criminal justice systems without interference from the federal government,” Weiser said in a statement.

“The idea that a president could pardon someone tried and convicted in state court has no precedent in American law, would be an outrageous departure from what our Constitution requires, and will not hold up,” he said.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani offered a possible rationale for Trump’s pardon of Peters.

“While Tina is currently in state prison, the pardon ensures the federal government cannot pursue federal charges and gives renewed focus and attention to Tina’s story,” Giuliani wrote on X.

Although Giuliani has not been convicted of any federal offenses, Trump preemptively pardoned him last month in connection with his efforts to challenge the 2020 presidential election results. Giuliani oversaw the 2020 Trump campaign’s legal efforts to contest the election.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 10:45

Charlie Kirk Murder Suspect Makes First Courtroom Appearance

Tyler Robinson, the Utah man accused of killing conservative commentator Charlie Kirk on Sept. 10, made his first courtroom appearance on Thursday in Provo, Utah. 

With no orange jumpsuit, his three public defenders convinced the judge in the case pushed back Robinson's preliminary hearing to May 18. 

Prosecutors are seeking the death penalty for the 22-year-old over the shooting of Kirk during an event at the Utah Valley University campus in Orem - just miles away from the courthouse where Robinson appeared on Thursday. Both sides have also asked Judge Tony Graf not to allow cameras in the courtroom, though Kirk's widow, Erika, wants cameras throughout the proceedings.

"We deserve to have cameras in there," she said previously.

A group of local and national news outlets including the Associated Press have pressed Graf to retain media access throughout the case, while Robinson's defense team have argued that the high-profile media attention could impede his right to a fair trial, arguing that even President Trump could have biased a potential jury when he said "I hope he gets the death penalty," referring to Robinson. 

Fourth District Court Judge Tony Graf presides over a hearing for Tyler Robinson, who is accused of fatally shooting Charlie Kirk, Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025, in Provo, Utah. (Rick Egan/The Salt Lake Tribune via AP, Pool)

Early into the proceeding, Graf briefly stopped a media livestream of the hearing and ordered the camera to be moved after Robinson's attorneys said it showed the defendant's shackles in violation of a courtroom order. The judge also warned he would terminate future broadcasts if there were further violations of an October order banning media from showing images of Robinson in restraints or anywhere in the courtroom except sitting at the defense table. 

"This court takes this very seriously," said Graf. "While the court believes in openness and transparency, it needs to be balanced with the constitutional rights of all parties in this case."

Judge Tony Graf Jr.: "I find that excluding the cameras from the courtroom would be disproportionate for this hearing ... As such we will take a brief recess to allow the relocation of the camera..." pic.twitter.com/3H48dw2CdM

— The Post Millennial (@TPostMillennial) December 11, 2025

As AP notes: 

Graf held a closed hearing on Oct. 24 in which attorneys discussed Robinson’s courtroom attire and security protocols. Under a subsequent ruling by the judge, Robinson is allowed to wear street clothes during pretrial hearings but must be physically restrained due to security concerns. Graf also prohibited filming or photographing Robinson’s restraints after his attorneys argued widespread images of him shackled and in jail clothing could prejudice potential jurors.

Media attorney David Reymann urged Graf on Thursday to let the news organizations weigh in on any future requests for closed hearings or other limitations. He said media organizations want “limited party status” in the case.

Staci Visser, one of Robinson’s lawyers, pushed back: “We don’t want the chaos that is out in the media in this courtroom.”

After appearing in the courtroom, Robinson briefly smiled at his father (who turned him in), brother, and mother, who were sitting in the front row. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 10:25

MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell To Run For Governor Of Minnesota

Authored by Arjun Singh via The Epoch Times,

Mike Lindell, the CEO of MyPillow, Inc. and a widely known political supporter of President Donald Trump, announced via social media on Dec. 11 that he is running for governor of Minnesota in the 2026 general election.

Lindell is seeking the Republican nomination to challenge Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.), the Democratic Party’s vice-presidential nominee in the 2024 presidential election, who is running for a third term.

“You know that I overcame my addiction to drugs. You know that I founded amazingly successful companies. You know that I have been relentless in making people aware of the fraud in our elections,” wrote Lindell on his campaign website.

“I’ll stand for you against government-sponsored theft of your livelihood via exploding property taxes, excessive fees, and unfair sales taxes,” he added.

Lindell joins a large field of Republican politicians seeking the nomination, including Minnesota House Speaker Lisa DeMuth and Scott Jensen, the former Republican nominee for governor in the 2022 election.

Lindell gained national prominence during Trump’s first presidential term for his vocal and energized advocacy for Trump, especially in the aftermath of the 2020 election.

Lindell’s campaign platform promises a reduction in property taxes, a drop in sales taxes on in-person purchases to 5 percent, and school reform.

He has also drawn attention to an ongoing controversy involving alleged fraud in the state’s social services system during the COVID-19 pandemic, where more than $1 billion in public funds were allegedly embezzled.

Opponents of Walz have alleged that he was aware of the fraud, but did not stop it due to the involvement of members of the Somali community in Minneapolis, a politically influential constituency for Democrats that includes Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.). Walz has denied the allegations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 10:05



 

 

At The Money: Year-End Tax Planning Moves with Bill Artzerounian, RWM (December 11, 2025)

There is still time to make some smart moves to reduce your 2025 taxes. You have to be proactive to take advantage of the latest changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. But you better hurry – there is less than three weeks left in the year!

Full transcript below.

~~~

About this week’s guest:

Bill Artzerounian is Director of Tax Services at Ritholtz Wealth Management, where he focuses on the very specific steps investors can take to better manage their taxes.

For more info, see:

Personal Bio

LinkedIn

~~~

 

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

 

Intro: Tell me, what in the hell we’re paying taxes for? Well, what if we all stopped paying taxes?
Now, what if we all stopped paying taxes? Stopped paying taxes, y’all

 

It’s that time of year. You still have Christmas gifts to buy, but you should be aware that April 15th is just around the corner. Consider this your nudge that you have less than three weeks to make whatever year-end tax moves you’re planning for the calendar year 2025.

I’m Barry Ritholtz and on today’s edition of At the Money, we are going to discuss the moves investors should be thinking about in order to reduce their 2025 taxes.

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your money, let’s bring in Bill Artzerounian, and full disclosure, Artzerounian is the director of Tax Services at Ritholtz Wealth Management, and we’ve been working with him for just about five years.

So, Bill, let’s start with a simple overview. You’ve said before, tax advice is financial advice.

I wanna unpack that. How should investors be thinking about the role of tax planning in their overall wealth strategy, especially here in December?

Bill Artzerounian: Let’s just think about a financial plan for a second. What part of a financial plan does not touch on taxes? I mean, think about just basic and cash flow planning.

Taxes for our investors are often the largest expense in their annual budget. Um, it’s mortgage and taxes. Those are the largest costs. Life insurance is thinking about a tax free inheritance for the next generation or for your heirs. Estate planning is all about taxes. If there was no estate tax, we wouldn’t really have to think about estate planning.

And then basic portfolio management is, uh, is, is purely, you know, not purely tax centric, but our investors are thinking about tax all the time. Our clients would rather save. A thousand dollars on taxes that make six figures in a trading day. Uh, so it’s all connected and the end of the year is like the report card.

Tax planning should be happening proactively for 12 months, but we don’t even stop there. We’re not thinking about taxes as a current year item or even a lifetime item. We’re thinking about this generationally. We’re thinking about how can we set up the next generation of client children, client grandchildren for tax success.

Barry Ritholtz: We have a few weeks left in the year. What are the big boxes that you think investors should be checking, and what important items do they ignore? What are the big mistakes people make?

Bill Artzerounian: I think one of the misunderstandings is on tax deferral rather than tax avoidance. Many strategies can avoid tax or can defer taxes, but that bill will come due at some point.

You know, think about even just a 401k, a pre-tax contribution. You’re gonna recognize that income at some point. Things like. Accelerated depreciation. We’ll come back to bite you on the recapture when you sell the asset. Opportunity zones are a tax deferral mechanism. These are all very useful because time value of money says that a tax deduction today, is worth more than a tax deduction in the future. But eventually, there’s gonna be a tax hit. I think that’s a common misunderstanding.

A few other mistakes is on capital gain, timing. You know, we see, we see clients not really. Understand or consider the timing of when they recognize gains. When we, when we onboard folks, we’re often pushing gains from the fourth quarter of, say, 2025 into the first quarter of 2026, because that gives us a full 12 months to tax loss harvest and create losses to offset any capital gains.

The flip side of that, of course, even a small movement in a stock price can cost more than a tax bill just to sell it. So it, you have to be pretty comfortable holding the position for a couple weeks or even a couple months.

And then the last, the last mistake is. Misunderstanding just basic payment obligations.

There are safe harbors to avoid, uh, estimated tax penalties. Um, but on the flip side of that is if you pay too much, there’s opportunity cost. If you have a big refund in April, that means you paid a little bit too much and that money could have been better put to use.

Barry Ritholtz: Bloomberg has a fairly sophisticated audience of, of high earning professionals. What are the three top moves you see for folks like that?

They have a portfolio, they have a pretty decent income, and they can expect to continue that for the foreseeable future.

Bill Artzerounian: Let’s start with charitable giving. We’ll talk about it more throughout the show, but it’s often the most accessible lever to pull for tax savings.

The caveat is that you need to be conscious of where your total deductions fall. We see some clients give a certain amount of charitable gifts and they don’t even itemize their deductions. So from a federal tax standpoint, maybe they gave away $10K, but they’re still taking that standard deduction. They’re not benefiting from that charitable gift. So that’s where bunching strategies and some other strategies with donor-advised funds can come into play.

Number two is on the equity compensation. For folks compensated through their company stock, the timing of the income can often be, be flexible. Think about stock options, uh, company stock options. We should be asking the question, how much can we recognize in stock option income before the end of the year, before we bump up against the next federal or state tax bracket? How much, if these are incentive stock options, how much can we recognize without paying AMT alternative minimum tax? These are questions we should all be asking, if we’re paid through equity or if we have clients that are paid through equity.

And the last one is for small business owners. There’s, there’s a whole lot on the small business side of this. I’m focused a lot on qualified business income, which is a 20% deduction for pass-through income.

But there are limitations and those limitations can be on. Based on how much you pay your employees or yourself in a wage. If you don’t meet a certain wage number that QBI benefit could be significantly reduced or even reduced down to zero if you’re, if you’re really screwing this up.

On the small business side, we should be looking at are we prepared to maximize retirement contributions? The Max 401k is, is $70,000 this year, between employer and employee contributions. And so you have to be ready to have that cash available to fund those contributions. Say you’re a mom and pop shop, two owners, zero employees, maybe you’re structured as an S-corp. You’re gonna have to come up with some cash to meet the the 401k obligations, either before the end of the year or before the tax filing.

Barry Ritholtz: I’m glad you brought up tax Advantage accounts like 401Ks. There always seems to be a last-minute frenzy to maximize not only 401Ks, but IRAs, health saving accounts 529s. How have the rules changed around credits and, and ceilings for this year and for 2026?

Bill Artzerounian: At least once a year with our with our clients, we’re running through the quote unquote basics of all of these contributions.

Are you on track to hit each of these with a 401k? We just talked about it a little bit. Um, but there’s a 70 k limit. Now, if you’re a W2 employee and you don’t own the company, you’re, you’re gonna make employee contributions. Maybe there’s a mega backdoor Roth option in there for you. We talk to folks all the time.

Who have this eligible or eligible in their plan, but they don’t even know about it. Nobody’s talking to them about this when they join the company. And that Mega Backdoor Roth allows you to put after-tax dollars into the 401k, convert it to Roth and have a nice Roth tax-free bucket growing alongside the pre-tax contributions that you already made.

IRAs don’t come up a lot in our world for a few reasons. Number one is most of our clients are employed with a retirement plan through their employer. And if that’s the case, deductible, IRA contributions may be limited. However, there is a backdoor option in the IRA if you don’t have any pre-tax money in any IRAs you can make after tax contributions, and again, convert to Roth in the IRA just as well as you can in the 401k.

And then the HSA I love; tax nerds love HSAs. You need to be on a high-deductible plan, which isn’t for everybody. Uh, my colleague, bill Sweet and I, we ran an analysis on high deductible plans and we found that there’s a pretty.

There’s a pretty attractive break even on high deductible plans because the premiums are lower and the long-term benefit of investing deducting HSA contributions and treating those as another retirement vehicle. Again, those are like Roths where they’re tax free. Those, those can compound very, very nicely.

Where. Maybe you retire early and let’s say you retire 60 instead of 65, you have a five year gap where you need to cover probably significant healthcare premiums that HSA can be used in that case. And it’s a nice tax-free bucket to have.

Barry Ritholtz: What do the ceilings look like on all these tax advantage accounts for 2026? How has the recent legislation changed the max people can kick into those?

Bill Artzerounian: The big change in 2026 is that Roth, uh, catch up contributions for folks over age 50 are now forced to be Roth contributions, again, starting 2026. Historically catch up contributions, which are gonna be 7,500 this year, 7,500 next year.

Folks in their fifties are often in their highest earning years. Therefore, the pre-tax option, is usually preferred. However, starting next year, the catch up contributions that 7,500 are going to be required to be Roth contributions. My theory is, nobody ever regrets a Roth contribution.  Nobody ever really regrets a Roth conversion because once you pay tax, you don’t really think about it.

And so if we have, you know, if we have investors in their fifties and sixties that are forced to make a small Roth contribution instead of a pre-tax contribution, that just gives them ex exceedingly more flexibility down the line because now they’re gonna have different buckets of money to pull from in retirement.

Barry Ritholtz: You mentioned earlier tax loss harvesting. We’ve been using Canvas as our direct indexing product, but it seems like this has become ubiquitous. What are your thoughts on tax loss harvesting? What does thoughtful harvesting look like?

Bill Artzerounian: I think the term thoughtful there implies to me that there should be an ongoing activity, not just a year-end item. Historically, taxpayers sell DDIY investors and even advisors, they’d look at the portfolio in December and say, okay, what’s underwater? Let’s book those losses through.

Through direct indexing, this is now an ongoing activity, but you don’t need a direct indexing portfolio to look at your portfolio.

You can even, if you’re not in a direct indexing setup, you can still tax loss harvesting throughout the year. Why just December? This should happen with regularity there. There’s nothing saying we can only book losses in December. Now, a lot of this is dictated by individual stock market volatility.

But with an ultra-diversified bucket of stocks, some will ultimately be losers. So you sell those, you pick up tax losses, you invest in a similar company, so you keep the fidelity of the portfolio, and then, you know, you don’t trigger wash sale rules.

The only caveat here is state by state stuff. New Jersey, for example, does not allow tax loss carry forwards. So we’re doing, in December, we’re doing a bit of the opposite with our New Jersey clients. We’re actually,  we’re looking historically over the, the first 11 months. What did we realize in losses? Let’s go make a gains harvest. Instead of realizing more losses, we’re gonna realize capital gains.

Barry Ritholtz: I know the deductions have, have changed. The standard deductions have, have become, permanent. There are new floors, there are new ceilings for that; for itemized and charitable gifts.

How should those people who are charitably inclined think about, you mentioned bunching donations or donor uh, advised funds. Give us a little more detail about how people should be using these vehicles?

Bill Artzerounian: We’re doing a lot of this with our clients, uh, throughout the year, but specifically at the end of the year, we kind of tee up charitable planning, like, here, let’s think about what we want to accomplish, and then let’s take a look at the end of the year and figure out how we’re gonna get this done, and if it’s the right year to do it.

What we need to be conscious of is all the other deductions, right? I mentioned previously, you might have a hurdle rate before you even start to deduct your charitable gifts, and that’s where you might want to consider bunching. Maybe three years, maybe five years, maybe 10 years worth of charitable gifts into 2025, for example, 2025. Maybe it’s a high income year. Maybe you’re paying down your mortgage, so you’re not getting that mortgage deduction anymore, and you want to take advantage of an appreciated security that you gift for charitable purposes. We, we do a lot of this.

Maybe a client comes to us, they’ve worked at a tech company, the tech company, they’ve been compensated well in that stock. They have charitable intent. We say, okay, let’s use that stock. Let’s send it to a donor-advised fund. Let’s bunch five years worth of gifting. And now you have your own little charitable fund that you can make grants out of over the next five years. So we’re gonna, we’re gonna time the deduction, but we’re not actually gonna change the way you’re giving.

Barry Ritholtz: I’m in New York, you’re in Philly. These are big SALT regions. I know the most recent big, beautiful bill changed all sorts of things. Where are, this is a question I hear all the time. Where are we with SALT deductions today? How has this changed? I know we’re not quite back the way we were, but it seems to have improved for a lot of people.

Tell us what’s going on with state and local tax deductions.

Bill Artzerounian: Well, it’s good news for most folks. For some folks, it’s not gonna change the damn thing. It’s gonna, what we have here is. The for since 2017, the state and local tax deduction as part of your total itemized deductions was limited to $10,000 for folks.

Barry in New York, uh, California, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania. $10,000 just wasn’t cutting it. A lot of, you know, we, we see tax returns here every day where they’re sometimes six figures of state and local taxes between real estate and income taxes. The new limit is $40,000. That was maybe the most talked about provision of Trump 2.0’s tax bill. It’s an increase from 10K to 40K with caveats.

If you’re earning more than $500,000 of total income, you start to get phased out. These are for, these are for both single filers and married filers. Once you hit 600,000, you’re all the way back to 10K. So you have some clients that are not gonna see a change at all. They make a million dollars a year, they’re not gonna benefit from this whatsoever.

We see other clients where we’re having tactical discussions on all kinds of income. Maybe we defer a capital gain into next year because we want to take full advantage of that SALT deduction this year, or maybe vice versa, but there’s a lot more planning to do on all of these deductions.

We talked about charitable, this is, this is along the same lines.

Barry Ritholtz: What else from the big beautiful Bill has changed the way you think about. Year end planning. Do, do any of these provisions show up as actual savings for clients?

Bill Artzerounian: I think it’s, it’s back to the charitable piece. There are some changes next year that are gonna impact charitable giving, which make 2025 perhaps more attractive from a charitable landscape.

Next year there’s gonna be a, a quote unquote, a floor on charitable gifts where the first 0.5% of your AGI will not be deductible for charitable purposes. So if you make a million bucks. The first 5K you give away to charity provides zero federal tax benefit.

The other change for the highest earning folks, folks in the 37% bracket, they are going to be limited on their overall deductions. They’ll be treated as 35% taxpayers, so that 2% delta can, can really add up when we’re talking about, when we’re talking about big deductions.

We’re doing a lot of. Shifting of charitable, uh, salt deductions, even mortgage, even mortgage deductions. We’re, we’re, we’re trying to get most of that into 2025, especially for our highest income tax-paying clients.

Barry Ritholtz:  There’s still plenty of time before the year ends. There are lots of moves individual investors can make to not only rereduce the taxes they’re gonna owe, uh, for the 2025 year, but also to think about long-term planning, their estate, maximizing every opportunity the government gives us lots of ways to either reduce or defer our current tax bill. Everybody should take full advantage of what’s on offer.

I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Bloomberg’s At the Money.

~~~

Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

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What GAO Found After three unsuccessful attempts over two decades, the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) undertook a fourth effort in 2017—the Electronic Health Record Modernization (EHRM) program—to modernize its legacy health information system. GAO has previously reported on the challenges VA has experienced with this effort. In these reports, GAO made 18 recommendations to improve cost estimating, schedule, program management, user adoption and satisfaction, and operational testing. GAO deemed 12 of these as priority recommendations because of their criticality to successful future deployments. VA has not yet fully implemented 16 of the 18 recommendations. Implementation Status of GAO Electronic Health Record System-Related Recommendations to the Department of Veterans Affairs as of December 2025 Report Total number of recommendations Number of priority recommendations Implementation status of recommendations GAO-25-106874 (March 2025) 3 2 2 priority open (not implemented) 1 closed (implemented) GAO-23-106731 (May 2023) 10 10 9 priority open (not implemented) 1 priority open (partially implemented) GAO-22-103718 (February 2022) 2 0 1 open (not implemented) 1 closed (implemented) GAO-21-224 (February 2021) 2 0 2 open (not implemented) GAO-20-473 (June 2020) 1 0 1 open (not implemented) Source: GAO reports. I GAO-26-108812 In March 2025, GAO reported that VA had made improvements at five initial sites but noted that the department’s actions to address challenges had impacted the program’s total cost estimate and schedule. Accordingly, GAO made two priority recommendations to update the cost estimate and schedule. Senate and House Authorizing and Appropriations Committees subsequently sent a letter to VA requesting a detailed cost estimate and schedule before September 30, 2025. While VA has delivered a notional schedule to congressional committees, it has not provided a cost estimate or detailed documentation of its schedule necessary to determine the extent to which it is consistent with leading practices. In May 2023, GAO reported that users expressed dissatisfaction with the new system and VA did not adequately identify and address system issues. GAO made 10 priority recommendations to address change management, user satisfaction, system trouble ticket, and independent operational assessment deficiencies. VA has not yet fully implemented the 10 recommendations. Until VA fully implements the priority recommendations, future deployments risk prolonging management challenges like those experienced in the initial deployments and users will likely not be positioned to achieve optimal usage of the new electronic health record (EHR) system. Why GAO Did This Study VA depends on its EHR system to manage health care for its patients. Since 2017, the department’s EHRM program has undertaken efforts to replace its legacy EHR system with a modernized, commercial system. VA first deployed its new EHR system in October 2020 and followed up with further deployments to four additional sites in 2022. However, in 2023, it halted future system deployments due to feedback from veterans and clinicians that the new system was not meeting expectations. In December 2024, VA announced plans to restart deployments beginning with four facilities in Michigan. The department plans for nine additional site deployments in 2026. VA plans to accelerate deployments to complete approximately 170 sites by 2031. GAO has previously designated VA health care as a high-risk area for the federal government, in part due to its challenges implementing EHRM initiatives. GAO was asked to testify on its key prior reports and related recommendations to improve VA’s EHRM program. GAO summarized the results of five prior reports and followed up with VA on actions to implement recommendations.

Everyone Except Zelensky 'Loved' My Plan, Trump Says, Warning Of WW3

First, on Thursday NATO chief Mark Rutte said from Berlin that Europe and the world should prepare for coming war, ominously warning that it could be "on the scale of war our grandparents and great-grandparents endured."

Soon following this, President Donald Trump seemed to echo the warning while voicing frustrations of there being no current off-ramp to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. "Things like this end up in third world wars. And I told that the other day, I said, 'You know, everybody keeps playing games like this, you'll end up in a third world war.' And we don't want to see that happen," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday. 

France24/AFP

"I'd like to see the killing stop: 25,000 people died last month, soldiers—mostly soldiers, but some people also where bombs were dropped," Trump continued.

While acknowledging that the conflict "doesn't really affect the United States unless it got out of control," he spoke on the obvious possibility of runaway escalation.

Trump said the United States is "working very hard" to resolve the conflict, but he also broke with Washington's typical reluctance to finger-point at President Zelensky. But in this instance he unleased, saying:

"I thought that we were very close with Russia to having a deal. I thought we were very close with Ukraine to having a deal. In fact, other than President Zelensky, his people loved the concept of the deal."

The US peace deal hinges on territorial concessions in the Donbas and Crimea, as well as Ukraine limiting the size of its armed forces and agreeing to never join NATO. These are precisely things which the Zelensky government has long rejected, and Europe has largely supported this unbending stance.

On this point, Trump said: "It's a little bit complicated because you're cutting up land in a certain way. It's not the easiest thing. It's sort of like a complex real estate deal times a thousand." Zelensky and the Europeans having been forging a 'counter-plan' - but on which Russia has already declared its unwillingness to contemplate.

While Trump clearly named Zelensky as thwarting peace efforts, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt tried to perhaps soften the anti-Kiev remarks. "The president is extremely frustrated with both sides of this war, and he is sick of meetings just for the sake of meeting," she told a press briefing.

Zelensky on Wednesday tried to blunt the pressure coming from the Trump White House by declaring he will look into holding elections.

.@PressSec on peace talks between Ukraine and Russia:

"The President is extremely frustrated with both sides of this war. He’s sick of meetings just for the sake of meeting. He doesn’t want any more talk. He wants action. He wants this war to come to an end." pic.twitter.com/f1oucZUQb1

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) December 11, 2025

He said: "Since this issue is being raised by the U.S. president and our European partners, I’ll be brief: I am ready. I ask the U.S., together with Europe, to ensure security for the vote. If that is done, Ukraine can hold elections within 60 days."

However, Zelensky is calling on his international backers to ensure that such an election could be held safely and fairly. Likely this would mean getting Moscow to agree to a temporary pause in the war, to allow a peaceful vote.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 09:45

Fermi Craters 50% After Losing First Tenant For Its Massive Texas Data Center

Fermi America announced their first potential tenant for the Project Matador data center campus terminated their $150 million Advance in Aid of Construction agreement (i.e., lease). The stock has plunged as much as 50% in premarket trading in what is a wild overreaction with unprecedented demand for data center space (especially data centers named after the president) still offset with limited supply.

Several weeks ago, we documented Fermi's difficulties with signing their first major tenant last month for their President Donald J. Trump Advanced Energy and Intelligence campus in Texas, set to become the world's largest mixed-use data center. Co-founded by former Texas Governor and Secretary of Energy Rick Perry, the company has yet to close a deal with a data center developer for their massive 11 GW campus outside of the Pentax facility.

What is bizarre, is that the company is on track to bring hundreds of megawatts on line for the site by the beginning of next year, has 6 GW of gas turbine power already permitted, and is currently progressing with the NRC to allow the construction of 4 AP1000 reactors. Yet somehow there isn't a line of potential customers around the block desperate for rack space. At least not yet, although we expect that will change one Trump tweets about it. 

Fermi is marketing their campus towards hyperscalers, with some tenants likely to include the biggest tech players such as Palantir. One of the government’s leading AI providers, Palantir was noted as currently being in discussion with Fermi about taking up a spot at Project Matador with a site visit expected to occur in the near future.

Fermi's Project Matador - The President Donald J. Trump Advanced Energy and Intelligence Campus.

The company notes that negotiations on the terms of the lease are continuing with their first potential mystery tenant that has cut off the $150 million for construction advances, and Fermi is continuing discussions with other potential tenants.

We have noted multiple times the extreme difficulties experienced by other data center developers throughout the United States, and abroad, with overcoming local opposition from NIMBY activists. Locals are still struggling to welcome the large data center developments to their towns due to concerns about increased energy consumption and prices, along with water usage.

With some of the data centers consuming as much as an entire city’s worth of water on their own, many activists have been able to petition regional leadership to block data center development on those grounds alone. Fermi has already demonstrated that they are well ahead of this with pre-permitting already completed for new power generation and millions of gallons of water per day already secured from nearby towns with access to massive aquifers.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 09:15

Futures Dip After Hitting Record High, As Fed's "QE Lite" Sets Up Christmas Rally

US equity futures are mixed; with small caps higher and tech stocks lagging. As of 8:15am ET, S&P 500 futures fall 0.1% after hitting a fresh record high yesterday; Nasdaq 100 contracts -0.5% amid signs of rotation out of tech as the equity rally broadens; Oracle led the broader sector lower on Thursday and Broadcom is poised to do the same in US trading after its sales outlook failed to meet investors’ lofty expectations. Its shares are down over 6% in premarket on lack of updated guidance, adding to weaker AI trade sentiment. In pre-market trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower with NVDA -0.6% and MSFT/META -0.3%; AVGO fell -5.7% after its earnings call despite universal beats across all metrics (bears pointed to the lack of FY27 AI revenue guide). Today we have the first POMO Lite operation by the Fed, in which the central bank will buy $8.2BN in bills this morning, setting up the market for a Christmas rally. Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose as much as 0.5% to a fresh peak, while a measure for Asia advanced to less than 2% from its all-time high. Bond yields are largely unchanged; USD is higher modestly. Commodities are mostly higher led by base metals (copper +2.7%) and gold/silver (+1.1%). There is nothing on the economic calendar; Fed speakers include Philadelphia’s Paulson (8am), Cleveland’s Hammack (8:30am) and Chicago Goolsbee, who dissented from Wednesday’s decision in favor of no change (10:35am).

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Alphabet +0.4%, Apple -0.1%, Amazon little changed, Tesla -0.2%, Meta -0.4%, Microsoft -0.4%, Nvidia -0.1%).

• Bristol Myers (BMY) rises 2% after Guggenheim Securities upgraded the drugmaker to buy, citing a “much more compelling risk reward.”
• Broadcom (AVGO) falls 5% after the chip company provided a sales outlook for the AI market that failed to meet investors’ expectations.
• Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) rises 1% after Reuters reported that the FDA’s Commissioner Office sought to cut the time reviewers spent checking documents related to the drugmaker’s experimental weight-loss pill to one week from 60 days.
• Lululemon (LULU) climbs 9% after the yoga-wear retailer said its CEO Calvin McDonald will step down after a seven-year stint, signaling a potential strategy change after sales struggled and the stock fell more than 60% from a 2023 peak.
• Netskope Inc. (NTSK) declines 5% after the security software company posted fiscal third-quarter results.
• Quanex Building Products (NX) climbs 22% after posting fourth-quarter profit and revenue that topped expectations.
• Roblox (RBLX) falls 2% after JPMorgan downgrades to neutral, seeing the stock taking a breather next year due to headwinds around user engagement and bookings.
• Veeva Systems (VEEV) falls 2% on light volume after KeyBanc cut the recommendation on the life-sciences software company to sector weight, saying that a recent round of channel checks has indicated large pharma clients that are in the middle of software evaluations are leaning toward Salesforce’s offering.

In other corporate news, Uber expects to offer robotaxi services in more than 10 markets by the end of next year, as it seeks to become a dominant force in an industry it estimates will eventually be worth at least $1 trillion.  A group of Swiss lawmakers proposed allowing UBS to use AT1 bonds instead of equity to meet capital requirements. T-Mobile US authorized a new shareholder return program of up to $14.6 billion.

S&P 500 futures were slightly weaker after the index notched a record close in the previous session. By contrast, gauges for US blue-chip and small-cap stocks were poised to extend their push into fresh highs. The diverging fortunes for US equities highlight the broadening of a rally that has put the S&P 500 on track for a third successive year of gains. For many investors, this week’s affirmation that the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle is still intact is clearing the way for a year-end rally.

Traders “are searching for alternative real assets, especially given the Federal Reserve rate cut and the possibility of more to come,” wrote Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor. “The rotation also provides something of a hedge for investors, where concentration risk among the ‘Magnificent Seven’ in particular was becoming more of an issue.”

Investors were seeking more clarity on when and how Broadcom will get a payoff from AI but, instead, they got a vague timetable mixed with some concerns about tightening profit margins. Meanwhile, Softbank is said to be studying an acquisition of data center operator Switch to expand in AI and Microsoft’s Mustafa Suleyman describes the technology as “already superhuman” in this weekend’s Big Interview with Bloomberg’s Mishal Husain

Diversification across geographies and themes is becoming a key consideration. After technology heavyweights drove equity gains for much of the year, concerns about stretched valuations and vast capital outlays have prompted investors to look for opportunities elsewhere.

“Given the set-up in markets, diversification is now the price worth paying to keep you fully invested in equities,” wrote Goldman Sachs’s Mark Wilson. He adds that there are compelling investment stories including Korea, Japan, China or the broader emerging markets.

As we noted yesterday, Goldman’s Cyclicals vs. Defensives basket is on its longest rising streak in years. “You don’t get moves like this unless the market is starting to lean into a better growth outlook,” wrote Goldman Sachs managing director Lee Coppersmith. 

Meanwhile, Goldman strategists expect stocks to notch fresh records next year, citing resilient economic growth and broader adoption of artificial intelligence to support corporate earnings. Goldman's Ben Snider reaffirmed his target for the S&P 500 to reach around 7,600 points in 2026, implying gains of about 10% from current levels. Other forecasters and asset managers share the upbeat view, with strategists at firms including Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank AG and RBC Capital Markets LLC also calling for US stocks to rise more than 10%.

Some are eyeing gains on an even shorter horizon, betting on further advances before 2025 ends as investors rotate into stocks that have so far remained in tech’s shadow. “Everyone is convincing themselves that there will be a Christmas rally, so it looks like there will be one, and to be honest, there’s no negative catalyst visible until the end of the year,” said Karen Georges, a fund manager at Ecofi Investissements in Paris. “Investors are keen to buy this year’s laggards, it’s a good time to diversify your portfolio at the moment.”

In government news, Trump issued an executive order seeking to limit the influence of proxy advisory firms. Trump also said the US would help with Ukraine’s security in a peace deal with Russia, but continued to express frustration with the pace of the talks.

European stocks tracked their Asian counterparts higher. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.3% after hitting a record earlier. The travel and leisure sector outperforms, while health care stocks lag. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• UBS shares jump as much as 5%, hitting the highest level since February 2008, after a group of influential Swiss lawmakers proposed watering down the capital demands that the country wants to impose on the bank.
• LPP shares surge as much as 12%, hitting an all-time high, after the clothing company reported quarterly results above expectations and boosted its guidance for 2027.
• Wendel shares rise as much as 7.4%, the most since April, after the French investment firm announced plans to return more than €1.6 billion to shareholders by 2030.
• Sopra Steria shares rise as much as 6.5% after the French digital and software consulting firm picked Rajesh Krishnamurthy as its new chief executive.
• CarrefourSA shares climb a smuch as 9.9% in Istanbul after Mergermarket reported parent Sabanci Holding is in talks to sell some of the Turkish grocery stores.
• Harbour Energy shares rally as much as 7.6% after the British oil and gas company agrees to buy substantially all the subsidiaries of Waldorf Energy Partners and Waldorf Production for $170 million.
• Card Factory shares fall as much as 35%, the most since March 2020, after the firm cut its guidance in what Panmure Liberum called a “shock warning that surprises in scale.”

Asian stocks climbed, buoyed by a rally in Japanese equities on bets the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates next week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.3%, putting the gauge on track to close at the highest in a month. All sectors were in the green, with TSMC, Toyota Motor and Tencent contributing the most to the advance.
For the week, the gauge was up about 0.6%, on course for its third straight week of gains.  Japan’s Topix was the best performing major index in the region, up 2% to a fresh record, driven by insurance and banking stocks seen as key beneficiaries of a potential hike.

In FX, Bloomberg’s index of the dollar traded near a two-month low on Friday and was on track for a third weekly loss; the pound is down 0.1%.

In rates, treasuries are mixed, with weakness at the long-end steeping the curve. US 10-year yields rise 1 bp to 4.17%. Gilts see a similar steepening move after the UK economy posted a surprise contraction in October.

In commodities, spot gold climbs $55 to the highest since October. Bitcoin falls 0.5%. WTI crude futures drop 0.3% to near $57.40 a barrel.

Fed speakers include Philadelphia’s Paulson (8am), Cleveland’s Hammack (8:30am) and Chicago Goolsbee, who dissented from Wednesday’s decision in favor of no change (10:35am); US economic calendar is blank, with several delayed releases scheduled for next week

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.5%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
• DAX +0.5%
• CAC 40 +0.7%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.17%
• VIX +0.3 points at 15.17
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1207.36
• euro little changed at $1.1729
• WTI crude -0.3% at $57.44/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump posted that "Prices are coming down FAST, Energy, Oil and Gasoline, are hitting five-year lows, and the Stock Market today just hit an All Time High. Tariffs are bringing in Hundreds of Billions of Dollars.
• Trump signed an executive order on AI, according to the White House website. Furthermore, a Trump administration aide said the executive order is to make sure AI can operate within a single national framework and that they are taking steps for a single national standard on AI.
• Fed regional bank presidents were reappointed in a unanimous vote, with new five-year terms beginning March 1st.
• US offers 'free economic zone' in east if Ukraine cedes Donbas, Zelenskiy says: RTRS
• Trump said the WSJ has another ridiculous story that China is dominating us, and the world, in the production of electricity related to AI.
• US admiral leading US troops in Latin America to step down: RTRS
• China Prepares as Much as $70 Billion in Chip Sector Incentives: BBG
• Nvidia considers increasing H200 chip output due to robust China demand, sources say: RTRS
• White House said Trump signed an order to increase oversight of and take action to restore public confidence in the proxy adviser industry.
• Ukraine fails to fill key posts as corruption scandal lingers: RTRS
• Trump is expected to push the government to dramatically loosen federal restrictions on marijuana.
• US Treasury Department is reportedly planning more access to corporate tax breaks for R&D, and an announcement may come as soon as next week.
• Seizure of Venezuelan Oil Strikes at the Heart of Maduro’s Grip on Power: WSJ
• The US government is to require AI vendors to measure political bias.
• Hope for More Rate Cuts Is Tempting Buyers Back to Bonds: WSJ
• Indiana's Republican-controlled Senate rejected the Congressional redistricting plan backed by President Trump.
• Law Professor Sues Boeing After Alleged Exposure to Toxic Fumes on Flight: WSJ

Trade/Tariffs

• Indian PM Modi said he had a call with US President Trump on Thursday as New Delhi seeks relief from 50% US tariffs on some of the country's key exports to punish India for its Russian oil purchases.
• Indonesia's chief negotiator to the US said they agree to conclude what had been agreed in July, and Indonesia hopes to conclude tariff negotiations with the US by year-end, while Indonesia will send a delegation to Washington to continue tariff talks soon.
• South Korea's Trade Ministry said rare earth trade talks with China will continue.
• Chinese Commerce Ministry announces export licenses for some steel products, with the license to kick in from January 2026.
• Argentina's Government confirms cut to export tax on grains and by-products, according to the Official Gazette.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were predominantly higher following on from the mostly positive handover from Wall St, where the S&P 500 and DJIA notched record closes, but the Nasdaq lagged on Oracle-related headwinds. ASX 200 rallied with mining, materials and financials leading the broad advances, with nearly all sectors in the green. Nikkei 225 advanced after Japan's Lower House recently approved the supplementary budget bill, with the index briefly returning to above the 51,000 level before fading some of the gains. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark conformed to the upbeat mood in the region, although the mainland lagged despite the recent Central Economic Work Conference where it was stated that China is to make use of RRR and rate cuts flexibly, while China's pledge to implement an appropriately loose monetary policy, implement more proactive fiscal policy, and stabilise the property market with city-specific measures, failed to inspire.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they will review various special measures for corporate tax.
• BoJ is likely to maintain its pledge next week to keep raising rates at a pace dependent on how the economy reacts to each increase, according to Reuters sources. Will not release updated estimate on neutral rate, will not use it as the main communication tool on rate hike timing.
• China Industry Ministry said it issued a notice on optimising the import and export supervision measures of lithium thionyl chloride batteries.
• A Japanese Finance Ministry Official said participants at today's primary dealers meeting said a sale reduction of super long JGBs is desirable.
• China prepares as much as USD 70bln in chip sector incentives, according to Bloomberg sources.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened mostly firmer and have continued to reside at highs throughout the morning. European sectors hold a strong positive bias. Travel & Leisure leads alongside Financial Services, whilst Healthcare lags. For Financials, UBS (+4.3%) shares have hit a 17-year high as traders continue to digest reports that Swiss lawmakers have floated a compromise on new capital rules for the bank.

Top European News

• European Commission reportedly considers the second phase of the safe loan scheme for defence projects.
• ECB said it will ask banks to describe what sort of political shock would reduce their CET1 by 300bps

FX

• G10s are modestly mixed vs the Dollar this morning, with very slight underperformance in the JPY, where USD/JPY currently trades at the upper end of a 155.46 to 155.93 range.
• DXY is trading within narrow ranges after declines on Thursday. Today's US docket does not have too much to offer in terms of data; we expect FOMC voters Schmid, Miran and Goolsbee to provide reasoning to their dissents. Currently trades within 98.29-98.44 parameters, trading at session highs at the time of writing; there may be some resistance at its 100DMA at 98.64.
• Despite GDP figures signalling a contraction in growth for October, sterling trades a just touch lower against the USD. GDP data showed continued weakness in production and construction, with the ONS noting JLR was unable to spark a recovery after production was halted in November.
• Elsewhere, the Antipodeans were the outperformers in the G10 FX space amid higher commodity prices, but have since pulled back off their best levels as sentiment wanes a touch.

Fixed Income

• USTs have held a negative bias this morning, attempting to scale back from some of the strength seen post-FOMC, which also sparked a steepening of the curve. Today, US paper is trading at the lower end of a 112-09+ to 112-14 range; there is now a clear path towards the 112-00 mark, should the pressure continue, and then 111-29 thereafter. The data docket ahead is void of any pertinent data, but focus will be on scheduled Fed speak via Paulson, Hammack and Goolsbee – the latter, alongside Miran and Schmid, should release an explanation for their recent dissent also.
• Bunds are following USTs and have held a negative bias throughout the morning. Some modest upticks were seen following the softer-than-expected UK GDP figures, but this ultimately proved fleeting. For the EZ specifically, German/French CPIs were unrevised, whilst Spanish HICP Y/Y was revised a touch higher – no move was seen in the German benchmark, which currently hovers just shy of the 127.50 mark.
• Gilts initially gapped higher by around 11 ticks at open after the UK’s softer-than-expected GDP report, but have since waned following the negative bias seen across global peers. Currently trading at the lower end of a relatively narrow 91.38 to 91.63 range.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks continue to rebound following Thursday’s selloff on broader market optimism and rising geopolitical tensions between Venezuela and the US. WTI and Brent oscillate in a USD 57.85-58.19/bbl and USD 61.49-61.86/bbl band, respectively, as the European session gets underway. This comes following a bounce from their lows in nearly two months, as equities stateside began to rebound.
• Spot XAU continues to trend higher after breaking out of its 9-day range in Thursday’s session. After peaking at USD 4286/oz in Thursday’s session, XAU spent the APAC session fluctuating in a USD 4265-4284/oz range before extending higher as short positioning continues to unwind.
• 3M LME Copper peaked to another ATH of USD 11.94k/t in the latter part of the APAC session, but has failed to hold onto gains as the European session gets underway. The red metal rallied in Thursday’s session, in line with the broader risk tone, but has pulled back and is currently trading at USD 11.8k/t as participants take profit.
• India Minister says India to start coal export for the first time.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• White House said a lot of quiet planning is underway for the next phase of the Gaza peace plan, and they will make announcements at an appropriate time.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US President Trump said they would help on security with Ukraine, and he thought they were close to a deal, while he added that there is a meeting on Saturday, and they will attend if they think there is a good chance. Trump also commented that he has spoken to China and Russia about nuclear weapons.
• Kremlin Aide said the US will sooner or later discuss with Moscow the outcome of its discussion with Ukraine, via RIA. Moscow did not revise US proposals after discussing with Ukraine and may "not like a lot of things there".
• Russia's Kremlin, on Ukraine's referendum suggestion, said the whole of Donbass belongs to Russia

Geopolitics: Other

• US President Trump said that it is going to start on land soon regarding Venezuela.
• US is reportedly preparing to seize more ships transporting Venezuelan oil, in which action would target tankers that may have transported other sanctioned crude such as Iranian, while the seizure has led to a suspension of at least three shipments, according to Reuters sources.
• US Treasury issued fresh Venezuela-related sanctions in which it was reported to have sanctioned Venezuelan President Maduro's nephews and six ships carrying Venezuelan oil.
• US President Trump said he will have to make a couple of phone calls regarding Thailand and Cambodia. It was later reported that Thailand's PM said a call with US President Trump is set for 21.20 local time 14:20GMT/09:20EST.
• China's Military said small Philippine aircraft "invaded" Scarborough Shoal airspace. Monitored, warned forcefully and drove away the aircraft.

US Event Calendar

• No Macro data
• 8:00 am: Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Economic Outlook
• 8:30 am: Fed’s Hammack Speaks at Real Estate Roundtable Series
• 10:35 am: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Economic Outlook Symposium

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Thank Friday it's Friday after a busy week. There won't be much thanks in our household though as school breaks up today and we have to work out what to do with them for another 10 days before we go on holiday. If anyone wants a 10yr old, or two identical 8yr olds as an intern for a week let me know. Skills? Eating cake. Weaknesses? Not clearing it up. Apply within!

The celebratory cake ended up being rolled out last night after an inauspicious start, with the S&P 500 (+0.21%) recovering from a weak open to reach a new all-time high. US equities were initially weighed down by a big slump for US tech stocks as Oracle (-10.83%) was the worst performer in the S&P 500 following its earnings release. However, the broader market mood was more positive as investors continued to digest the Fed’s rate cut from the previous day, and also helped by ebbing inflation fears as 2yr inflation swaps fell to their lowest in 13 months. And Europe saw a strong rally across the board as investors dialled back the chance of an ECB rate hike next year, which helped the STOXX 600 (+0.55%) to close less than half a percent beneath its record high.  

Those earnings from Oracle (-10.83%) on Wednesday night were a big story yesterday, as it revived fears about the sustainability of AI spending. As a reminder, they reported revenue that was beneath expectations, and capital expenditures that were above expectations. So that meant the share price fell to its lowest level since June, having now shed -39% since its closing peak back in September. Remember as well that Oracle’s CDS spreads have been used as a hedge against a potential AI bubble, and their 5yr CDS spreads rose +12bps to 134bps by the close, their highest level since 2009 around the GFC. It seems to me that since early October the AI trade has changed from everyone being a winner to winners and losers. In the period where Oracle is down nearly -40%, fellow hyperscaler Google is up around +30%. There are other examples of winners and losers with the likes of Coreweave down -39% since early October and the poster child of AI, namely OpenAI under much more scrutiny. I can’t help but think this trend would continue in 2026 where the AI story will result in more divergence. For markets overall it will depend on whether one of the mega cap stocks get on the wrong or right side of that winners and losers equation.   

Back to yesterday and while the Oracle news cascaded across US tech stocks, leaving the Magnificent 7 -0.66% lower on the day, the overall equity market managed to shake off initial negativity as the optimism we saw after the Fed’s rate cut on Wednesday again took hold. The S&P 500 (+0.21%) reversed a -0.77% decline early in the session, and outperformance by blue-chip and small-cap stocks also sent the Russell 2000 (+1.21%) and the Dow Jones (+1.34%) to new record highs.

The swing in AI sentiment continued with Broadcom’s earnings after the US close. Following a +78% advance YTD, the chipmaker now has a larger market cap than Meta and Tesla, playing a growing role in the tech market narrative. The stock initially advanced +4% after-hours after unveiling stronger-than-expected revenue guidance for the current quarter ($19.1bn vs $18.5bn est.). But it then turned sharply lower as management held off on giving an AI revenue forecast for the year, leaving Broadcom’s shares down -4.5% by the end of after-market trading. NASDAQ 100 futures are down a tenth and the S&P equivalent is flat.  

US Treasuries also had a mixed day yesterday. Yields initially moved lower as markets digested the Fed’s latest rate cut and reacted to messy set of weekly claims data. However that move reversed as the session went on, and 10yr yields (+0.9bps to 4.16%) inched higher late in the session after the Fed Board unanimously reappointed eleven Fed regional presidents to new five-year terms (Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who is retiring, was the lone exception). The regional presidents’ current terms expire in February so the advance announcement suggests that the Board was united in wanting to avoid the risk that the reappointment process raises questions over Fed independence.

At the frontend, 2yr Treasury yields (+0.2bps) were little changed, with their rise limited by a decline in breakevens as the 2yr inflation swap fell -2.0bps to 2.43%, its lowest level since November 2024. That was in part due to oil prices declining to their lowest since October, with Brent crude down -1.49% to $61.28/bbl. The amount of Fed cuts priced by December 2026 stayed at 55bps (-0.4bps on the day), so still consistent with at least two cuts next year. Meanwhile, the recent dollar weakness continued, with the dollar index (-0.45%) hitting an eight-week low.  

Over in Europe, markets put in a strong performance as investors dialled back their expectations for ECB rate hikes next year. By the close, the chance of a hike by the December 2026 meeting was down to 28%, which is still noticeable, but down from 40% the previous day when front-end yields hit their highest in months. So those more dovish expectations supported assets across the continent, with the STOXX 600 (+0.55%) closing half a percent beneath its record high, whilst Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.72%) hit an all-time high. Similarly for sovereign bonds, yields on 10yr bunds (-0.8bps), OATs (-1.4bps) and BTPs (-2.0bps) all moved lower.

Otherwise in Europe, the main story was from the Swiss National Bank, who left their policy rate at 0% as expected. However, the perception was that a return to negative interest rates was unlikely in the next few meetings, and SNB Chair Schlegel said that the “hurdle is higher for the introduction of a negative interest rate”. That backdrop meant the Swiss franc was the top-performing G10 currency yesterday, up +0.57% against the US dollar. Meanwhile, yields on 10yr Swiss government debt rose +0.8bps, contrary to the declines across the rest of Europe.

Asian stock markets have gathered some positive momentum this morning with the Hang Seng index (+1.69%) leading the way, while the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.23%) is also notably higher, continuing the substantial increases from the previous session. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+1.08%) and the KOSPI (+1.13%) are also strong supported by a recovery in technology stocks. The CSI (+0.57%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.31%) are lagging a bit, as local semiconductor manufacturers are lower due to the anticipated rise in competition from NVIDIA Corporation.

Finally, there wasn’t much economic data yesterday, although we did get the weekly initial jobless claims from the US. They were higher than expected, at 236k in the week ending December 6 (vs. 220k expected). Treasuries saw a modest rally following the release but for the most part markets took the print in their stride. There were always expectations of choppiness around the Thanksgiving holiday, and the 4-week moving average was still at 216.75k, which is at the bottom of the range in recent months. We also had the trade balance for September, which had the US trade deficit falling to its smallest since June 2020, at just $52.8bn (vs. $63.1bn expected).  

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK GDP for October. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Paulson, Hammack and Goolsbee.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 08:56

COVID Porn Is Back

Authored by 'sallust' via DailySceptic.org,

The tireless hacks at the BBC have emerged from their bunkers once again to terrorise the public by bravely touring the hospitals and whipping up hysteria about the latest outbreak of flu.

It seems “literally hundreds” of patients have been bombarding A&E departments, according to Health Editor Hugh Pym and Chloe Hayward who have been courageously touring the front line:

As one patient leaves his room at Leicester Royal Infirmary’s acute unit, cleaning staff are waiting outside.

He is barely out of the room before the bed is stripped and bleach is sprayed. The next patient is already waiting to come in.

Over two days the BBC was given access to the hospital to witness first-hand how it is coping with an early surge of winter bug cases.

Flu season has hit a month earlier than normal this year, with experts warning there appears to be a more severe strain of the virus – mutated H3N2 – circulating.

Hospitals around the country, like this one in Leicester, are doing all they can to avoid becoming completely overwhelmed.

“Completely overwhelmed.” Sounds familiar?

They’re at the Royal Infirmary in Leicester, and after citing some choice case studies, miss no opportunity to make it sound like the end of the world is imminent:

“There are patients in every cubicle,” Consultant Saad Jawaid says, as Paige is wheeled in. “Another ambulance has just rocked up.”

We watch as he works with colleagues in the resus unit to find desperately needed bed spaces.

“When beds are full we have to move people – sometimes that means those who can sit are moved out of beds and into chairs,” he says.

Regardless of the situation in the hospital and the range of conditions people are turning up with, on closer examination it things aren’t quite as bad as the story’s florid copy suggests:

Richard Mitchell has been the Chief Executive of University Hospitals Leicester NHS Trust since 2021 – and has witnessed first-hand how it gets harder to cope with each winter that passes.

”We are already seeing very high levels of flu,” he tells us. He expects numbers to climb into January. “That is one of the many things I am concerned about at the moment.

“At this point I feel we are working at the limits of our ability.”

What exactly was he expecting? An idle coast through to April before going on a well-unearned summer break? It raises the interesting question of what people who work for the NHS think they are likely to be confronted with in 21st century Britain.

The story ends up with the predictable exhortation to get a flu vaccine.

The other day the Telegraph reported that the currently available jab is a “poor match” for the strain that’s doing the rounds anyway.

Stop Press: The BBC’s Nick Triggle (often a voice of relative sanity in the Covid years) has questioned how unprecedented this year’s flu wave really is, pointing out that the NHS’s data only go back to 2021!

NHS England says the number of patients with flu in hospital is the worst on record for this time of year, describing it as an unprecedented situation.

It is, but that’s because the data only goes back to 2021-22. In doing so, it misses several really difficult flu seasons during the 2010s.

The 2014-15 and 2017-18 winters were particularly bad – more than 20,000 deaths from flu were recorded.

Both were far worse than what we have seen over the past four years.

So when the NHS talks about being in an unprecedented situation it is not taking into account what happened just a decade ago.

Could this flu season match those? It is quite possible. The strain that is dominant this year – H3N2 – was the one behind the 2014-15 and 2017-18 spikes.

But it is worth remembering what is being seen now is not something that has never happened before.

Enough said. But if you’re feeling nostalgic and suffering from Covid-era withdrawal symptoms, the BBC’s story will take you back to the good old days. The only thing missing is some reckless modelling.

Worth reading in full – unless you’re of a nervous disposition.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 08:25

The post Silly Trump Boast #76,249: The Trade Deficit Plummeted in September appeared first on CEPR.

Beijing Prepares Its Own $70 Billion Chips Act

News earlier this week reported that President Trump had approved exports of Nvidia’s AI H200 chips to China. Shortly afterward, however, reports emerged that Beijing plans to limit access to those advanced chips as it pushes to strengthen domestic chip innovation and production and reduce reliance on U.S. technology.

Both the U.S. and China are deploying national strategies through a whole-of-government approach to bolster key industries. In the U.S., Trump has developed a national strategy around chips, rare earths, and revitalizing manufacturing, and could soon announce a new strategy focused on humanoid robots.

In China, Beijing is set to unveil a massive incentive package worth up to $70 billion to bolster the domestic chipmaking industry, Bloomberg reported, citing sources familiar with ongoing discussions.

Even at the low end, the massive incentive package would rival the U.S. Chips Act. At the top end, it would represent the most extensive state-backed semiconductor program China has ever put forward.

Here are more details from the report:

• The new semiconductor support package is worth between $28 billion and $70 billion.

• The package would involve subsidies and financing support separate from existing vehicles like the $50 billion Big Fund III.

• Beijing aims to reduce reliance on foreign chipmakers such as Nvidia and to accelerate the rise of domestic champions like Huawei, SMIC, Cambricon, and Moore Threads.

Beijing’s “whole nation” strategy under President Xi Jinping is another clear signal that the US and China are locked in a broadening superpower rivalry race...

This rivalry is not a traditional shooting war, at least for now. Instead, it is being fought across technology, economics, military power, finance, and competing economic systems. It is a new Cold War that has been unfolding for more than a decade.

President Trump is the first US president to directly confront this uncomfortable reality through a Make America Great Again framework, centered on reshoring critical industries, rebuilding manufacturing, and preparing the country for an increasingly volatile 2030s.

Democrats, on the other hand, have responded to the MAGA agenda with lawfare and pressure campaigns driven by far-left activist groups, raising a more fundamental question about where the modern left-wing party, increasingly embracing socialist and Marxist ideas, places its allegiance.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 08:05

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

November sales will be mostly for contracts signed in September and October, and mortgage rates averaged 6.35% in September and 6.25% in October (lower than for closed sales in October).

In November, sales in these markets were down 5.7% YoY. Last month, in October, these same markets were up 2.8% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There was one fewer working days in November 2025 (18) as in November 2024 (19). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be more than the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
This was just several more early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

Earnings above a cap aren’t subject to the payroll taxes that fund Social Security. As a result, billionaires pay the same tax as someone earning $176,100 in 2025 (the cap is indexed to the average wage, so it changes every year).

“Scrapping the cap” is a popular and effective way to address Social Security’s funding gap. Nearly three-fourths of Social Security’s projected long-term shortfall would be eliminated if the cap were scrapped without increasing benefits.

But wouldn’t such a move be opposed by high earners? The answer isn’t as obvious as you might think, because most workers with earnings above the cap stand to lose more from benefit cuts than from higher taxes. If nothing is done to shore up Social Security’s finances, EPI estimates that 70% of workers aged 32–66 who earned more than the taxable maximum in 2024 would lose more in benefit cuts than they would pay in higher taxes if the cap were scrapped.

The remaining 30% of these high earners, would, however, be better off losing 22.4% of their benefits beginning in 2034 than paying Social Security taxes on earnings above the cap. Unfortunately, this group includes politically influential multi-millionaires and billionaires.

Figure A

Figure A shows the break-even line below which workers are better off paying taxes on earnings above the cap than experiencing benefit cuts sufficient to eliminate the projected shortfall. For example, if the cap were eliminated, a worker who was 35 years old and earned below $236,000 in 2024 would pay taxes on earnings above the cap through age 66, but the value of these additional taxes would be lower than the value of forgone benefits if these were reduced by 22.4% (the amount necessary to restore the system to long-term balance).

Ultimately, most high earners stand to lose more from potential Social Security benefit cuts than from paying taxes on earnings above the cap. Scrapping the cap remains the most fair and practical path to safeguarding Social Security for future generations.

Methodology

This exercise assumes benefits are reduced across the board by the amount needed to restore the system to long-term balance (22.4%). This is a deeper cut than the initial 19% cut that would happen automatically in 2034 if nothing were done to increase revenues (a cut, however, that would increase to 28% over the projection period). It is, however, less than the 26.8% cut that would be needed to restore the system to long-term balance if retirees and others already receiving benefits are spared from cuts in 2034.

Real earnings are assumed to grow steadily by 1.13% per year, the Social Security actuaries’ long-term wage growth assumption. Future values are discounted to the present using a 2.3% real interest rate, also based on the actuaries’ long-term assumption. Life expectancy in retirement varies by birth year and is based on the actuaries’ cohort life expectancy tables, averaged between men and women.

The working age range covers 35 years before age 67, Social Security’s normal retirement age for most current workers. For many workers, these are their highest-paid 35 years and therefore the earnings that factor into Social Security benefit calculations.

The shares of workers with earnings above the cap and with earnings below the break-even amounts are estimated based on March 2025 Current Population Survey annual earnings microdata accessed through IPUMS, which reflect earnings over the previous 12 months. Break-even earnings are rounded to the nearest $1000.

Nuclear Reactors For Investors

Submitted by Steffan Szumowski from The Nuclear Review

“We’re designing a Liquid Metal Reactor”

“Our design will utilize proven technologies”

“The design makes our reactor ‘walk-away safe’”

There’s a growing list of public and private companies that are working to build reactors for various purposes. These reactors vary widely in their design, size, output, and potential purpose. Everything is on the table: from using the same designs we've used for decades to novel ideas still only on the drawing board.

This article is designed to serve as a point of reference when reading about a new company and the reactor they’re designing. Some of the features companies discuss are less novel than they sound, and vice versa. Hopefully, the information provided here can provide a more clear picture for the investor to make an informed decision.

Reactor Designs Features

Skipping the nuclear physics details, since the basic principles are consistent across the designs we’ll explore, a nuclear reactor facilitates the controlled fission of uranium atoms, harnessing the resulting energy for various applications. After that, the differences we see in reactor designs are mostly in the choice of the fuel, moderator, and coolant.

If we include all the variations that have been used over time and the novel ideas yet to be produced, this will get out of hand. We’ll only be focusing on the most common options.

Fuel

Uranium is king when it comes to fuel for nuclear reactors. Compared to the other fuel options, thorium and plutonium, uranium wins out mostly due to natural abundance and path dependence. You don’t just drop in a chunk of uranium from the ground though. It’s often enriched and comes in a few different forms:

• Uranium Oxide (UO2) - The most common fuel for water-cooled reactors. The pellets are stacked inside fuel rods and loaded into the reactor core, and then replaced about every two years. The design holds major historical preference, but is less useful in high temperature applications, such as in reactors intended for industrial heat processes.

• Uranium Zirconium (U-Zr) - This alloy improves on the UO2 fuel design in respect to thermal conductivity. U-Zr has improved conductivity and no oxygen, which makes it ideal for use in reactors with liquid sodium. But, with a lower melting point, it isn’t able to be used in gas-cooled reactors.
   
• Uranium Zirconium Hydride (U-ZrH) - This fuel is unique with its addition of hydrogen. The hydrogen acts as a balance to help shutdown reactors when temperature gets out of control and spikes up. This is why U-ZrH is typically found in research reactors at universities and national laboratories; when combined with additional cooling measures and engineered hydrogen management, the fuel offers a near “walk-away safe” capability.
   
• Mixed Oxide (MOX) - Plutonium Oxide (PuO2) can be mixed with UO2 to create MOX for use in many types of reactors, including those that would normally operate on UO2 pellets. MOX is not widely used in the US, and is instead more extensively used in the French commercial fleet. It enables useful consumption of old nuclear weapons materials and recycling of spent nuclear fuel.
   
• Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) - The “Cadillac” of reactor fuel is the newer TRISO design, which is a spherical UO2 pellet encased in layers of pyrolytic carbon and silicon carbide. This provides enhanced durability for fuel failures. Its costs are comparatively high, considering the overall fuel density is only 5% that of UO2 fuel, but this is potentially countered by reduced protective design features of the reactor plant due to the fuel’s superior integrity.

A frequent topic of discussion is also the enrichment levels of fuel, especially with some of the newer reactor designs requiring more highly enriched fuel than has traditionally been used in the commercial fleet. The enrichment in nuclear fuel refers to the percentage of fissionable, or fissile, material in the fuel. This fissile material is the uranium isotope U-235, with the majority of the rest of the uranium in the fuel being non-fissile U-238. Enriched fuel is usually required, since natural uranium mined from the ground is around 0.7% U-235, and most reactors need enrichment levels around 3-5%. The sub-5% enrichment level is referred to as Low Enriched Uranium (LEU). Some of the newer commercial reactors though require High-Assay LEU (HALEU), which is enriched to around 15-20% U-235. There are even higher levels of enrichment, usually reserved for government-sponsored research and military use due to proliferation concerns.

Moderator

The moderator is used in “thermal” reactors to slow down the neutrons flying around in the core, which allows them to more easily interact with uranium and cause fission. Most of the current global fleet operates on this principle. Moderators have typically been:

• Light water (H2O) - This is just normal water with additional filtering and chemistry controls. Abundant, cheap, and excellent for slowing down neutrons given hydrogen has similar mass to the fission-inducing neutrons.
   
• Heavy water (D2O) - Better suited for moderating than H2O due to the deuterium (an isotope of hydrogen) having a significantly smaller chance of absorbing one of those fission-inducing neutrons. It’s not used as much in the global reactor fleet (mostly used in Canadian reactors) due to its complicated and expensive production process.
   
• Graphite - Used as a moderator in the form of solid blocks. Use of graphite also means a second material will need to be used for the coolant, compared to H2O/D2O that fill both the moderator and coolant roles. Graphite holds a heat tolerance advantage over water moderators, enabling higher core temperatures and better thermal efficiency.

Compared to thermal reactors, “fast” reactors operate without a moderator, allowing neutrons to maintain their higher, “fast” energy. This enables the use of a broader range of fuels, while also offering the potential for reactors to breed more fuel than they consume. They can also operate at higher temperatures than most thermal reactors, enabling additional potential applications. Fast reactors aren’t without their disadvantages though, as most of them intend to use HALEU, contributing to higher start up costs and a growing concern for a current lack of that fuel’s supply chain. Lastly, there are engineering and operational challenges with handling high-energy neutrons and materials, some of which may be unquantifiable until actual system operation can be further observed.

Coolant

All reactors have a coolant to meet two main objectives: first, to get the energy from fission out of the core to prevent overheating, and second, to transfer that heat to the secondary system for electrical generation or other industrial purposes. Coolants are usually:

• H2O or D2O - The most frequently used coolant for the current global fleet. The material is cheap and abundant, but requires high pressurization to prevent boiling for non-BWRs, and its moderation ability is a downside for fast reactor applications.
   
• Liquid Sodium - Significantly higher boiling point and thermal conductivity compared to water. This enables lower operating pressures and higher thermal efficiencies. There’s a horrible potential downside though, as sodium reacts violently when exposed to water or air.
   
• Molten Salt - Similar to sodium with its higher thermal conductivity, but with an advantage of a melting point almost twice as high as sodium. The downsides are less precedence in nuclear history and a much higher melting point, leading to solidification concerns. Molten salt also has a complex structure, such as toxic and expensive beryllium, the requirement for enriched lithium, and tritium production concerns. Tritium in particular has received significant attention in recent years, as it is one of the main points of contention for how to handle the cooling water used during and after the Fukushima disaster.
   
• Inert Gas - Helium and carbon dioxide have been used in gas-cooled reactors with graphite as the moderator. The balance here is less corrosion and radiation than sodium and salt reactors while still gaining high thermal efficiency, but the smaller power density leads to the requirement of having to construct much larger reactor cores.

Reactor Design Combinations

Put all these different fuels, coolants, and moderators together, and what do you get? The four major reactor designs that most investors will come across when evaluating companies in the nuclear industry:

Light Water Reactor (LWR)

The US’s current fleet is made of two subsets of the LWR category: the pressurized water reactor (PWR) and boiling water reactor (BWR). Both of these designs use light water as the coolant and moderator, with UO2 as the fuel. LWRs have the most reactor-years of operation and experience, with no close second.

PWRs use a pressurized system to enable higher operating temperatures without boiling the coolant. The water passes through the core (primary loop) to take away fission heat and transfer that energy through a heat exchanger to the secondary water system (secondary loop). There, the water is allowed to boil so the steam can drive a turbine for electricity production. Radiological concerns are therefore minimized to the primary loop, but additional systems are needed to maintain pressure and obvious concerns come with operating at significantly higher pressures.

BWRs operate by letting the water boil in the core and using that steam to directly spin a turbine. This enables the BWR to have a simpler system, but radiological concerns now include all the way out to the electrical generation system, versus just within the primary loop.

Companies building/developing LWRs: Cameco (Westinghouse), NuScale, GE Vernova, Holtec, Hadron, Rolls-Royce

Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor (SFR)

These reactors gained runtime under multiple test reactors, including Phénix and Superphénix in France, Joyo and Monju in Japan, and the FFTF and EBR-II reactors in the US. Unmoderated and liquid sodium cooled, SFRs can use multiple types of fuel, such as U-Zr and MOX. Their initial operations were marred most notably by difficult-to-repair leaks, leading Admiral Rickover to shun one of the earliest sodium reactors in favor of PWRs for his nuclear submarine program. SFRs offer potential benefits though with higher temperatures and thermal efficiencies, which leads to additional use cases in industrial applications. Lastly, there is potential for them to act as breeder reactors which can produce more fuel than they consume.

Companies building/developing SFRs: TerraPower, Oklo, Aalo 

Molten Salt Reactor (MSR)

These reactors have the least experience among current reactor designs. MSRs can operate as thermal reactors with almost any fuel, a graphite moderator, and molten salt as the coolant. Newer designs also have the MSRs operating as fast reactors. These designs can even have a novel fuel dissolved directly into the molten salt coolant itself with no moderator. The thermal reactor version has similar use cases to SFRs, due to the high operating temperature.

Companies building/developing MSRs: Kairos, Terrestrial, Natura

High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR)

It is important to note that HTGRs are different from their predecessors, the Gas-Cooled Reactor (GCR). The older GCRs were only focused on generating electrical power for commercial grids. They had to be significantly larger than PWRs due to using less-enriched uranium and poor energy density of the coolant, usually carbon dioxide. The newer HTGRs are designed to use enriched uranium, usually TRISO fuel, with graphite moderation and helium cooling. Precedence for HTGRs can be found in reactors like Fort St. Vrain in the US and the Thorium High-Temperature Reactor-300 (THTR-300) in Germany. The current designs being developed haven’t varied much from previous HTGRs, which may yield easier licensing processes. The higher operational temperatures of HTGRs will allow for more uses than just electricity.

Companies building/developing HTGRs: X-energy, Radiant, Valar, Terra Innovatum, Nano Nuclear, BWXT

Considerations for the Potential Investor

The likely question an investor would ask at this point is: which one is best? Unfortunately there is no good answer to this question. They all have distinct advantages and disadvantages that need to be compared to the company’s intended market, and then backtested to try and infer the reactor’s chance of success. Here are a few topics to help evaluate a company’s project:

Capacity Factor

The capacity factor is a measure of how consistently a reactor achieves its maximum rated output. The champions of the capacity factor are large LWRs, with a well-documented recent history of over 90%. This contrasts greatly with some of the other reactor designs, such as SFRs that saw significantly lower capacity factors due to ongoing material management issues, such as leaks. A lower capacity factor will mean operational delays, additional costs, and less revenue. HTGRs are better off than SFRs, however still not as consistently high as LWRs, and MSRs are still relatively untested.

Important to additionally note is the time it takes to achieve a high capacity factor. LWRs did not achieve a 90% capacity factor in their first year of operation. Some new reactors struggled to achieve capacity factors in the teens in their first years of testing. It took multiple decades of experience to gain the capacity factors that we see today. Also, the experience that has been gained is on the equipment and designs we currently use, not what is still on the drawing board. It is almost inappropriate to assume that a reactor that has never been operated can achieve a high capacity factor on its first day of operation.

Of particular concern should be when a company describes a feature of their reactor as novel. This can directly translate to future engineering and licensing issues, in addition to operational concerns (likely unaccounted for), leading to new costs.

Power Rating

A more minor, yet still important, point to be mindful of; particularly when evaluating the intended market for a reactor. The term for describing the output of a reactor goes by multiple names, including power rating, nameplate rating, thermal power (MWt or MWth, interchangeable), and electric power (MWe).

The number to be asking and looking for is the MWe, as this number describes the actual energy that a commercial reactor would output to a connected load or electrical grid, and could be used for revenue projections based on electricity rates. The number frequently given in lieu of the MWe is MWt, which is a measure of the power generated inside the reactor core. This number does not reflect what the usable output of the reactor will be, and is a poor gauge of the reactor’s potential application.

While not exact, as efficiency varies based on reactor design, a rule of thumb for converting MWt to MWe is to divide the MWt by three. So, a reactor marketed as rated to 300 MWt is about 100 MWe. This MWe number could then be taken and compared to the output of a diesel generator or coal/gas/solar/wind system, to see where replacement opportunities may exist.

The Small Modular Reactor (SMR)

The term used to have some definition to it, with the hallmarks of a small footprint and lower power output. The SMR also offered a wide range of new possible applications, including, but not limited to: remote communities, process heat, mining operations, military installations, marine propulsion, disaster response, and desalination.

But recently, some of the designs claiming the SMR label have swelled in size and rating, while the large reactor designs have gained modularity features. This has led to a loss of significance of the term SMR, as it now applies to an ever-widening array of designs. At this point, it seems to be mostly used as a marketing tactic, with its mention still catching the attention of most investors.

While some companies have progressed through the licensing process, none of them have actually successfully built and operated their SMR. This means there is no means of projecting potential engineering, licensing, construction, or testing problems that should be very reasonably expected. The only example to extrapolate potential issues from is the Vogtle 3 and 4 reactors. They had the most experienced reactor planning, engineering, and construction teams they could ask for, and yet through a combination of regulatory struggles, engineering complications, and construction management failures, they were built at a miserably slower speed than projected and at a dramatically higher cost.

Even with this recent example on full display for everyone, most new reactor production companies promise commercialization of their designs within the next five years. This is likely beyond achievable for many.

Precedence vs Innovation

This has arguably been one of the more divisive approaches to the development of newer and smaller reactors. Should the team pursue a more advanced reactor with innovative design aspects and novel safety features? Or, should they stick to what works, not fix what isn’t broken, and try not to reinvent the wheel?

Precedence offers familiarity. LWR designs benefit from decades of operational history. This reduces uncertainty in licensing, construction, and operation. These designs still face problems, as discussed above, but due to recently completed construction and testing programs, uncertainties have been greatly diminished. It’s no coincidence the most recently certified reactor designs are LWRs from NuScale and Cameco’s Westinghouse.

On the other hand, innovation brings the potential of disruptive advancements. Designs like SFRs, MSRs, and HTGRs promise higher thermal efficiencies, broader fuel flexibility, and potential new applications beyond electricity generation. Yet, innovation also brings uncertainty. The NRC is still unfamiliar with these designs, leading to prolonged approval times and rejection in some cases such as with the Aurora SFR from Oklo. Engineering and construction challenges will likely reveal themselves later in the process, resulting in cost overruns. The argument can be further tipped back in favor of novel designs though, as more safe design features like TRISO fuel could increase chances of licensing success.

For investors, this balance demands careful evaluation. A company pursuing innovation should have strong partnerships, a credible roadmap, and a clear path to de-risk novel aspects. Conversely, companies relying on precedence must show a competitive edge in cost, efficiency, or scalability compared to peers.

Conclusion

Investing in the next generation of nuclear reactor technologies is about as exciting as it gets. The spectrum of designs from tried-and-true LWRs to innovative MSRs offers opportunities to shape the future of energy. Yet, diversity in a highly technical industry brings an equally high degree of difficulty when it comes to choosing which company to invest in.

Successful investments in this space demand more than enthusiasm; they require discernment. The key lies in understanding concepts like capacity factor, licensing hurdles, construction timelines, and operational precedents. Companies championing well-understood designs bring the advantage of reduced uncertainty, but may face limitations in application and heavier competition. Meanwhile, pioneers of novel reactor concepts promise groundbreaking advancements but must navigate uncharted engineering, regulatory, and market waters.

Ultimately, the winners in this field will be those who can bridge the gap between vision and execution, and manage expectations. Serious advantages are also held by companies with operational test reactors at national laboratories and universities. They’re gaining the actual runtime needed to improve their designs and manage future risks. For investors, due diligence is paramount. Look for companies with clear roadmaps, realistic timelines, and strategic partnerships that can mitigate risks while capitalizing on opportunities.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 07:20

What GAO Found The Marine Corps and Air Force had higher rates of the most serious accidents in the last 2 fiscal years (2023 and 2024) with its Osprey aircraft compared with the average serious accident rate for the previous 8 years, based on available Department of Defense (DOD) data. In fiscal years 2023 and 2024, 18 serious, non-combat accidents occured involving death; permanent disability; extensive hospitalization; property damage of $600,000 or more; or a destroyed aircraft. Rates of serious accidents were between 36 percent and 88 percent higher than each service’s average rate for the prior 8 fiscal years. Percent Difference of Serious Osprey Accident Rates in Fiscal Years 2023 and 2024 Compared to Service Average for Fiscal Years 2015–2022 Note: The accident rate equals the number of accidents per year divided by the number of flight hours per year and then multiplied by 100,000. Serious accidents refer to combined Class A and B accidents which are those accidents that involved death; permanent disability; extensive hospitalization; property damages of $600,000 or more; or a destroyed aircraft. The Navy had not experienced a Class A or Class B accident with its Osprey variant since it began operational use in fiscal year 2021 through fiscal year 2024. Rates of serious accidents with the Osprey aircraft generally exceeded those of the Departments of the Navy and Air Force fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft fleets for fiscal year 2015 through fiscal year 2024. Serious Accident Rate Comparisons for Marine Corps and Air Force Osprey with Departments of the Navy and Air Force Fixed Wing and Rotary Wing Fleets, Fiscal Years 2015–2024 Note: Serious accidents refer to combined Class A and B accidents which are those accidents that involved death; permanent disability; extensive hospitalization; property damages of $600,000 or more; or a destroyed aircraft. Most reported causes for serious accidents related to materiel failure of airframe or engine components and human error during aircraft operations or maintenance, according to GAO’s analysis of safety data. Osprey program stakeholders have not fully identified, analyzed, or responded with procedural or materiel mitigations to all safety risks. For example, program stakeholders, which include the Osprey Joint Program Office and military services that operate the aircraft, had closed 45 risk assessments at the time of our review, but had not fully responded to 34 known system-related risks related to the potential failure of airframe and engine components. Stakeholders also had not identified actions to respond to non-system safety risks associated with aircraft maintenance and operations, such as mismatches in maintenance skill levels and limited training time to build aircrew experience. Without refining the joint program’s process for identifying, analyzing, and responding to Osprey safety risks to incorporate and prioritize system and non-system safety risks, program stakeholders cannot adequately mitigate risks that can contribute to death, injury, or loss of mission capability and resources. Program stakeholders described factors that affected their ability to fully resolve Osprey safety risks, including challenges with how program stakeholders developed priorities and plans for addressing safety issues. These stakeholders identified costly, long-term engineering solutions and safety improvements that were required across a joint program with varied fleet sizes, which created longer risk mitigation timelines. GAO found that the median age for 28 unresolved serious and medium system risks was about 9 years, and over half (17 of 28) had been unresolved for between 6 and 14 years. Summary and Median Age of Unresolved Osprey System Safety Risk Assessments, by Assessment Type as of June 2025 Note: The Department of Defense (DOD) designates risk assessments as serious and medium based on their assessment of the severity (e.g., catatsrophic) and frequency (e.g., remote). The figure does not include six additional risk assessments for general military aviation risks (e.g., bird strikes) that are not specific to the Osprey and have been accepted for the life of the program. New initiatives established in 2024 are intended to address several of these factors, but these efforts did not comprehensively address non-system safety risks or include information for each service’s Osprey variant. Without determining an oversight structure with clearly defined roles and responsibilities for resolving known safety risks or conducting periodic reviews of efforts to resolve them, DOD cannot have reasonable assurance that program stakeholders will fully resolve the interrelated system and non-system safety risks affecting the Osprey. GAO found that the Osprey program stakeholders have not routinely shared information in three areas to promote the safe operation of the aircraft. Hazard and accident reporting. Program stakeholders have not proactively shared hazard and accident reporting information with Osprey units and unit safety personnel in the other services that operate the aircraft. Determining a process to proactively share relevant safety information with these personnel would provide greater assurance that Osprey units have the information needed to update their safety procedures. Aircraft knowledge and emergency procedures. Program stakeholders did not convene a multi-service conference or other forum to share Osprey aircraft knowledge and emergency procedures for 5 years (from 2020 to 2025). Service-specific changes to operational practices included safety related information, but these changes were not readily shared among the services, according to unit personnel with whom GAO spoke. The military services that operate the aircraft held a conference in May 2025, but they had not formalized plans to continue to do so. Without such a routine method, Osprey units have missed out on opportunities to share information that would enhance the safe operations of the aircraft. Maintenance data for common aircraft components and parts. Program stakeholders have taken steps to address maintenance data integrity issues for the hundreds of common Osprey aircraft components and parts that are shared across the services, but they have yet to confirm that all implementation steps have been completed. Without conducting a comprehensive review of Osprey maintenance guidance and inspection procedures, program stakeholders do not have assurance that efforts to improve maintenance information sharing have resolved data integrity issues, including for critical life-limited Osprey components, which has hindered their ability to ensure the safe operation of the aircraft. Why GAO Did This Study The Marine Corps, Air Force, and Navy use the Osprey tiltrotor aircraft, which combines the capabilities of a helicopter with those of a turboprop aircraft. The Osprey experienced four fatal accidents since 2022 resulting in the deaths of 20 service members, based on reported DOD data. GAO was asked to review Osprey accidents. This report (1) describes the trends in reported Osprey accidents; (2) evaluates the extent to which the Program Office and the military services have taken steps to identify and resolve Osprey safety issues; and (3) discusses how the military services share relevant Osprey safety information. GAO analyzed DOD data on Osprey accidents through fiscal year 2024 and visited a non-generalizable sample of seven Marine Corps, Air Force, and Navy Osprey units to interview officials that GAO selected based on factors such as where accidents occurred.

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

• Howard Marks: Is It a Bubble? Ours is a remarkable moment in world history. A transformative technology is ascending, and its supporters claim it will forever change the world. To build it requires companies to invest a sum of money unlike anything in living memory. News reports are filled with widespread fears that America’s biggest corporations are propping up a bubble that will soon pop. (Oaktree Capital)

• The Collapse of Human Knowledge: And why you should create more in the age of AI. (Grant Varner’s Almanack) see also Teaching when to trust: As fake news accelerates, we need to teach our children how to think critically. Finnish schools are leading the charge. (New Humanist) 

• The Five Things Luxury Shoppers Want Right Now: Jean-Marc Mansvelt, CEO of LVMH’s leather house Berluti, explains what consumers are looking for from the industry. (Bloomberg)

• Crypto’s rocky year: The industry was hugely optimistic when Donald Trump returned to the White House. But bitcoin has fallen by a quarter in two months. (Financial Times)

• How DoorDash became an $85 billion behemoth and won the delivery wars: The company has more than twice the U.S. market share of the next competitor, Uber Eats—but that’s just the beginning, says CEO Tony Xu. (Fortune)

• Why ‘job hugging’ can be worse than quitting: In a low-hire labor market, clinging to a current role—however unsatisfying it is—may seem logical. But there’s a psychological impact to feeling stuck. (Fast Company)

• What True Wealth Looks Like: Money can make you happier, but only if you don’t care about it. (The Atlantic)

• The quest to slow aging leads scientists into the powerhouse of cells: Texas A&M researchers create mini mitochondria factories using tiny nanoflowers. (Washington Post)

• Want This Hearing Aid? Well, Who Do You Know? AI-powered startup Fortell has become a secret handshake for the privileged hearing-impaired crowd who swear by the product. Now, it wants to be in your ears. (Wired)

• The ‘Race Against Time’ to Save Music Legends’ Decaying Tapes: New problems are plaguing old reels, putting decades of history at risk. One man, armed with hair dryers and a love of tinkering, is leading the charge to rescue them. Much of America’s musical heritage is stored on artists’ studio tapes. But as they age, many of those reels are slowly deteriorating … … putting work by 20th-century masters like Bob Dylan, Fleetwood Mac and Bruce Springsteen at risk. One audio engineer, armed with unconventional machinery, is trying to solve that problem before it’s too late. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Stephen Cohen, BlackRock Chief Product Officer and Head of Global Product Solutions. He is a member of BlackRock’s Global Executive Committee. Previously, he was Global Head of Fixed Income Indexing (iShares); and Chief Investment Strategist for International Fixed Income and iShares. Blackrock manages $13.5 trillion in AUM; its iShares division is over $5 trillion.

Boom or Bubble? The open-ended nature of the AI capex boom is good to see; Bubbles are not formed when investors think critically.

Source: Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity

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The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Delivery Theft And Scams Are Reshaping Holiday Shopping Decisions In 2025

Americans may be preparing for holiday sales and gift lists, but a new survey shows that growing anxiety over safety and scams is shaping how they shop in 2025. Concerns about home security, crowded retail environments, and package theft are pushing changes in buying behavior, from delivery choices to how—and when—people visit stores, according to a study from Hanwah Vision. The key findings were:

• 62% of Americans are concerned about porch pirates this year.
• 59.5% would pay more for secure delivery options.
• 40.5% of Americans say that safety concerns influenced their decision to shop online or in-store this year. That share rises to 61% among Gen Z.
• 31% of Americans lack confidence that retailers provide adequate security during the holidays.
• 35.5% often avoid crowded stores or peak hours because of safety concerns.
• 40% of Gen Zers plan to do most of their holiday shopping online.
• 21% say they feel less safe in stores this year compared to last.
• 42% of men would buy from a website they’ve never heard of if it offered a big discount, compared to 32% of women.
• Only 31% expect their overall holiday spending to rise.

The study found that fear of package theft remains one of the biggest concerns of the season. Sixty-two percent of shoppers worry about porch pirates, and nearly 60 percent say they are willing to pay extra for delivery options that promise greater protection. Those worries are driving homeowners to beef up security with cameras, motion-sensing lights, doorbell alerts and locked delivery boxes. Shoppers are no longer just hoping their gifts arrive—they want assurance that they will arrive safely.

Safety is also influencing where people shop. Forty-point-five percent of Americans say concerns about crime, scams or crowded stores played a role in whether they chose in-person shopping or online purchasing this year. Among Gen Z shoppers, that figure climbs to 61 percent, with 40 percent planning to do most of their holiday shopping online. Younger shoppers are especially wary of in-store risks, with one in five saying they feel less safe in shops this year than last. Their shift online might protect them from in-store theft or crowds, but it brings new vulnerabilities such as phishing scams and counterfeit retailers.

The study says that security doubts extend to brick-and-mortar stores. Nearly a third of shoppers say they don’t trust retailers to provide adequate protection during the holidays, and more than a third say they avoid crowded stores or peak hours because of safety concerns. For retailers already battling competition from e-commerce, a sense of insecurity could become another reason customers choose to shop elsewhere. Shoppers want visible signs that stores are investing in protection, whether through trained staff, monitoring systems or stronger cybersecurity for payment data.

Meanwhile, financial pressure is pushing many consumers to take risks they might normally avoid. Only 31 percent expect to spend more on gifts this year, suggesting that tight budgets are pushing shoppers toward steep discounts and unfamiliar online sellers. That desire for bargains has a cost: 42 percent of men and nearly a third of women say they would purchase from a site they’ve never heard of if the deal was compelling enough. Temptation fuels vulnerability, making scams and fraudulent sites more effective at a time when shoppers are more focused on savings than verification.

With budgets stretched and more consumers modifying their traditions, every purchase carries a little more weight. Losing a gift to theft, fraud or delivery issues isn’t just frustrating—it represents money carefully saved and spent. This year’s Holiday Security Sentiment Index suggests that the season has two priorities: what people buy, and how safe they feel buying it.

The findings are based on a nationwide survey of 1,000 adults conducted ahead of the 2025 holiday season. Participants were asked how worries about theft, scams and personal safety are influencing where they shop, how much they spend and what precautions they take at home and in stores. Responses were analyzed across age groups, gender and income to identify emerging trends that link security and spending behavior.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 05:45