As reported by the Senate Committee on the Judiciary on May 20, 2025

Gabbard Releases Long-Classified Martin Luther King Jr. Assassination Files

Just days after Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard dropped a bombshell report recommending criminal prosecution for several Obama-era officials over their role in a "treasonous conspiracy" tied to the 2016 election, she has now released the long-classified Martin Luther King Jr. files—a staggering 243,496 pages across 6,301 PDFs and one MP3 audio file.

The MLK Jr. files have been under a court-imposed seal since 1977, when the FBI first gathered the records and turned them over to the National Archives and Records Administration. DNI Gabbard made the files available at archives.gov/mlk.

DNI Gabbard's office stated in the press release: 

This unprecedented release follows through on President Trump's commitment to fully release previously-classified records related to the assassinations of President John F. Kennedy (JFK), Senator Robert F. Kennedy (RFK), and MLK, and was carried out in coordination with the Department of Justice (DOJ), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and the National Archives.

"The documents include details about the FBI's investigation into the assassination of MLK, discussion of potential leads, internal FBI memos detailing the progress of the case, information about James Earl Ray's former cellmate who stated he discussed with Ray an alleged assassination plot, and more," DNI Gabbard stated on X. 

Here are the key highlights:

• Internal FBI memos on leads and investigation progress.

• Evidence of alleged assassination plots discussed with James Earl Ray in prison.

• Canadian and CIA foreign intelligence records tied to Ray's international flight.

"I am grateful to President Trump and DNI Gabbard for delivering on their pledge of transparency in the release of these documents on the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr.," stated Dr. Alveda King, niece of MLK Jr.

King noted, "My uncle lived boldly in pursuit of truth and justice, and his enduring legacy of faith continues to inspire Americans to this day. While we continue to mourn his death, the declassification and release of these documents are a historic step towards the truth that the American people deserve."

DNI Gabbard stated, "The American people have waited nearly sixty years to see the full scope of the federal government's investigation into Dr. King's assassination," adding, "Under President Trump's leadership, we are ensuring that no stone is left unturned in our mission to deliver complete transparency on this pivotal and tragic event in our nation's history. I extend my deepest appreciation to the King family for their support." 

Earlier this year, President Trump signed an executive order to declassify records related to the assassinations of President John F. Kennedy, Senator Robert F. Kennedy, and Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. So far, it appears he’s kept his word.

There's a lot to dig through in the 243,496 pages—and X sleuths are already searching through it. 

*Developing... 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/21/2025 - 16:40

The Deep State Is In Real Trouble Now

Authored by Matt Margolis via PJMedia.com,

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard just lit a fuse under the deep state—and it’s about time...

Appearing Sunday on “Sunday Morning Futures” with Maria Bartiromo, Gabbard dropped a stunning accusation: that Barack Obama personally directed a “treasonous conspiracy” to undermine Donald Trump’s presidency before it even began. And now, according to Gabbard, the floodgates are opening—whistleblowers who were sickened by what they witnessed are starting to come forward.

“The implications of this are frankly nothing short of historic,” Gabbard said. She pointed to more than 100 newly released documents that she says show how Obama, just weeks before leaving office, greenlit a coordinated effort to sabotage Trump—after he was elected. “This is not a Democrat or Republican issue. This is an issue that is so serious it should concern every single American.”

According to Gabbard, Obama and his inner circle simply refused to accept the outcome of the 2016 election. Instead of stepping aside and respecting the will of the people, they weaponized the intelligence community and pushed a phony Russia narrative to kneecap Trump before he even took office.

“They decided that they would do everything possible to try to undermine his ability to do what voters tasked President Trump to do,” she said. “So, creating this piece of manufactured intelligence that claims Russia had helped Donald Trump get elected contradicted every other assessment… that said exactly the opposite—that Russia neither had the intent nor the capability to ‘hack’ the United States election.”

That “manufactured intelligence” became the foundation for the infamous Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) that Obama ordered to be published in January 2017—a political hit job disguised as a national security report. Gabbard didn’t hold back in describing just how dangerous that deception really was.

“There’s no question in my mind that this Intelligence Community Assessment… contained a manufactured intelligence document,” she said. “It’s worse than even politicization of intelligence—it was manufactured intelligence that sought to achieve President Obama’s and his team’s objective, which was undermining President Trump’s presidency and subverting the will of the American people.”

This wasn’t politics—it was a coup. And Gabbard says more is coming.

“Next week we will be releasing more detailed information about how exactly this took place and the extent to which this information was sought to be hidden from the American people,” she said.

But the most explosive revelation? The dam may be breaking inside the Intelligence Community.

After years of silence, people who saw this treachery unfold are starting to step forward.

“We have whistleblowers, actually, Maria, coming forward now, after we released these documents,” Gabbard said. “There are people who were around, who were working within the Intelligence Community at this time, who were so disgusted by what happened. We are starting to see some of them coming out of the woodwork.”

Gabbard says she’s committed to handing over all evidence to the DOJ. “There must be indictments. Those responsible, no matter how powerful they are and were at that time… they all must be held accountable.”

Full interview with Maria Bartiromo & Tulsi Gabbard.

What's new:
Whistleblowers are coming forward to provide testimony about the conspiracy against Trump.

Gabbard confirms she will release moar documents next week. pic.twitter.com/vUHDkNtNOx

— Praying Medic (@prayingmedic) July 20, 2025

She’s absolutely right. For nearly a decade, the media, the Democrats, and yes—Barack Obama—have treated the Constitution like a speed bump. They lied, they manipulated intelligence, and they tried to nullify a lawful election because they didn’t like the result.

Now, the truth is starting to catch up with them. And if there’s any justice left in Washington, the days of these Deep-State plotters skating by unpunished may finally be numbered.

The walls are closing in on the Deep State—and you have a front-row seat as this scandal explodes.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/21/2025 - 16:20

Mass Layoffs Continue Across Freight-Related Companies In The US

Authored by Noi Mahoney via FreightWaves.com,

Another wave of closures and layoffs has hit workers and companies tied to commercial transportation, manufacturing, lumber production, distribution and logistics across the U.S.

Over the past several weeks, there have been 4,137 job cuts announced, according to media reports and Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act notices.

The companies facing layoffs include: Republic National Distributing Co. (1,756), Canfor Corp. (290), Bluestem Brands (160), DeRoyal Industries (153), Weaber Lumber (145), Howard Miller Co. (133), Ohio Eagle Distributing (124), Pocino Foods Co. (124), Western Forest Products (112), Americold Logistics (110), Lightspeed Logistics Miami LLC (110), Cartparts.com (104), MacMillan-Piper (92), GSC Enterprises Inc. (80), SalonCentric (79), Auto Warehousing Co. (75), BRP Marine US Inc. (72), Marshall Excelsior Co. (71), Backyard PlayNation (66), Spectrum Plastic Group (34) and CHS Inc. (25).

Beverage distributor Republic National exits California

Republic National Distributing Co., a wholesale beverage alcohol distributor, plans to close its operations across California by the end of September and slash 1,756 jobs statewide, according to WARN notices and media reports.

Grand Prairie, Texas-based Republic National Distributing Co. is one of the country’s largest wine and spirits wholesalers.

CEO Bob Hendrickson cited increasing operational costs and “industry headwinds” as some of the reasons for the layoffs.

“This decision was driven by rising operational costs, industry headwinds, and supplier changes that made the market unsustainable”, Hendrickson said in a news release published in Wine Industry Advisor. 

Distribution and logistics firms hit hard by layoffs

Ohio Eagle Distributing LLC, a beer distribution company, is in the process of selling all of its assets, including facilities in Lima and West Chester, Ohio, according to state filings.

The sale of the business will result in 124 jobs being cut at the two facilities, including 39 truck drivers. The sale is expected to be finalized by Sept. 8. 

Cold storage provider Americold Logistics is laying off 110 employees from a facility in Atlanta, citing low volumes. The layoffs are scheduled to begin Sept. 5. 

Lightspeed Logistics Miami LLC will eliminate 110 delivery driver positions and close its same-day delivery service in Hialeah, Florida, by Aug. 17, according to a WARN filing. The company did not provide a reason for the closure or layoffs.

Auto parts distributor CarParts.com is closing its location in Chesapeake, Virginia, and laying off 104 workers, according to state filings. The company did not provide a reason for the facility’s closure and job reductions, which will be by mid-August.

Supply chain solutions provider MacMillan-Piper is laying off 92 employees in Seattle and Tacoma, Washington, according to a WARN notice with the state.

The company said the layoffs were a result of a “sudden and unforeseeable business circumstances resulting from the loss of operational funding,” according to the WARN notice.

MacMillan-Piper is a transloading company that operates six facilities near the ports of Seattle and Tacoma.

GSC Enterprises Inc., a grocery supply chain provider, is laying off 80 workers in Oakland, California, along with Seattle and Tacoma. The layoffs include managerial roles in general, planning and client areas.

GSC Enterprises, which is the parent company of MacMillan-Piper, said the layoffs were the result of “sudden and unforeseeable business circumstances,” in a WARN filing. 

CHS Inc. is closing a grain shipping terminal in Superior, Wisconsin, by the end of August and eliminating 25 jobs, according to state filings.

The facility is “the largest grain terminal in the Duluth-Superior port,” according to mprnews. CHS did not give a reason for the closure.

Lumber production companies hit hard by closures, job cuts

Vancouver, Canada-based Canfor Corp. is closing sawmills in Darlington and Estill, South Carolina, laying off 290 workers.

The Darlington plant employs 120 people, and the Estill plant employs 170 people. Layoffs will start Aug. 25.

Canfor said the mill closures were due to “persistently weak market conditions and sustained financial losses,” in a statement posted on Facebook.

Weaber Lumber is laying off 145 workers at its distribution center in Lebanon Township, Pennsylvania, by Sept. 9. The company is a hardwood lumber manufacturer. 

“As with so many other manufacturers, we have been struggling with challenges in the housing market and with the impacts of inflation,” a Weaber spokesperson told BizNewsPA. “Home sales are down while mortgage rates remain high. Continued uncertainty in the overall economy has prompted consumers to delay building or purchasing a new home or renovating an existing home.”

Western Forest Products, another Vancouver, Canada-based lumber firm, laid off 112 employees from a lumber mill in Vancouver, Washington, according to a WARN notice.

The company’s Columbia Vista sawmill was left inoperable by a fire on June 29, the company said.

Food producers shuttering facilities, laying off 202

Pocino Foods Co. is closing a plant in City of Industry, California, and laying off 124 workers, according to a WARN filing.

The facility’s closure and layoffs will be finalized by Aug. 26. The company said they are closing the plant based on “a recent evaluation of business operations.”

Pocino Foods, headquartered in City of Industry, is a manufacturer of handcrafted specialty pre-cooked meats.

The T. Marzetti Co. is laying off 78 employees due to the closure of its Milpitas, California, production facility. The closure and layoffs were finalized on Monday. 

The Ohio-based company did not provide a reason for closure of the facility. The T. Marzetti Co. makes and distributes salad dressings, fruit and vegetable dips, frozen baked goods and specialty brand items. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/21/2025 - 15:45

Obama Judge Casts Doubt On Trump's $2.6 Billion Harvard Funding Freeze

A federal judge appointed by former President Barack Obama appeared deeply skeptical on Monday of the Trump administration's move to strip Harvard University of $2.6 billion in research funding - suggesting that the school may prevail in its legal battle against the government.

After a two-hour hearing in her Boston courtroom, Judge Allison D. Burroughs did not issue a ruling - however she did seem receptive to Harvard's arguments. Burroughs fired a barrage of pointed questions at the lone DOJ attorney - demanding to know things such as how the administration could reasonably tie funding cuts to concerns over the civil rights of Jews. 

She also suggested that there were potentially "staggering" constitutional consequences if the government can punish universities at will without due process. 

As the Epoch Times notes further, the Justice Department argued that the government was well within its rights to terminate funding streams to Harvard. The university, it also said, brought the case in a federal district court when it should have brought it in the U.S. Court of Federal Claims, which typically handles contract-related disputes.

Tension inside and outside the courthouse seemed to underscore the high stakes alleged by both sides. In his rebuttal, Justice Department attorney Michael Velchik, a Harvard alumnus, got choked up while discussing the importance of the university and the concern about anti-Semitism on campus.

At the entrance to the Joseph Moakley federal courthouse, pro-Harvard protesters could be seen with signs reading “Opposing Genocide Is Not Anti-Semitism,” “Defend Academic Freedom,” and “Resist Tyranny.”

The hearing came alongside a related trial in which a group of university professors alleged the Trump administration was chilling college professors’ speech with high-profile arrests of pro-Palestinian advocates like Mahmoud Khalil.

At issue on July 21 was whether Harvard’s claims about the First Amendment allowed it to bring the case before Burroughs despite the dispute involving contracts and money.

Steven Lehotsky, who represented Harvard, alleged that the administration had engaged in a “blatant, unrepentant” violation of the First Amendment. The Trump administration, he said, gave the university an “offer we couldn’t refuse” with its demands on the university.

Velchik alleged that the government would have canceled Harvard’s contracts regardless of how the university responded to its demands. Besides, he said, issues surrounding the First Amendment could still be handled in the Court of Federal Claims and should be, because the case was primarily about money.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/21/2025 - 15:05

Public trust in FDA decisions will plummet if Commissioner Marty Makary abandons the agency’s “gold standard” principles. Gooz News – Merrill Goozner FDA Commissioner Marty Makary had every right to revisit the benefits and risks of taking hormones to treat severe menopause symptoms. The agency currently warns they may increase the risk of heart attacks, […]

The post An Opinion Masquerading as Science appeared first on Angry Bear.

Public Law 119-21 as enacted on July 4, 2025

Retail Speculation Is Back With A Vengeance

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Retail speculation is once again gripping the markets. A recent Wall Street Journal article highlighted how the latest retail gambling vehicle—zero-days-to-expiration (0DTE) options—has exploded in popularity. According to CBOE, trading volumes in these contracts have surged nearly sixfold over the past five years, with retail traders now accounting for more than half of all transactions. This rapid rise in speculative options trading has intensified since 2020.

This is more than a quirky market statistic. It’s a glaring warning sign of rising risk-taking behavior among retail investors. History consistently shows that markets peak when the average investor starts chasing lottery-like returns. Options, by design, are speculative instruments used to hedge risk or make directional bets. However, the explosion in 0DTE options points to a significant behavioral shift from investing to outright gambling.

One of the most visible examples of this shift is Robinhood. The brokerage earns four times more revenue from options trading than traditional stock commissions, while its stock price has soared over 300% in the past year. The speculative fervor isn’t limited to options; we continue to see it in meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, and high-flying tech names. The appeal is easy to understand—0DTE options offer the illusion of life-changing returns for a small upfront cost. Unfortunately, the reality is far harsher. Most retail traders lose money, often spectacularly. While market makers like Citadel Securities collect billions in profits, the average investor learns, too late, that leverage cuts both ways.

Retail Speculation & the Perils of Leverage

This cycle of retail speculation is nothing new. In early 2021, just months before the market corrected in 2022, we noted how inexperienced retail investors were rushing into markets. In a piece titled “Long On Confidence And Short On Experience,” we highlighted how retail traders exhibited high confidence without the experience to manage risk appropriately. Online searches for terms like “how to trade stocks” surged, echoing similar speculative periods of the late 1990s and mid-2000s.

“In a “market mania,” retail investors are generally “long confidence” and “short experience” as the bubble inflates. While we often believe each ‘time’ is different, it rarely is. It is only the outcomes that are inevitably the same. A recent UBS survey revealed some fascinating insights about retail traders and the current speculation level in the market. The number of individuals searching “google” for how to “trade stocks has spiked since the pandemic lows.”

For anyone who has lived through two “real” bear markets, the imagery of people trying to learn how to “daytrade” their way to riches is familiar. From E*Trade commercials to “day trading companies,” people left their jobs to trade stocks.

From the dot-com bubble to the meme stock mania, the behavior has remained the same. Retail traders feel invincible in rising markets, convincing themselves that the more risk they take, the more money they’ll make. As we noted then, young investors were even taking on personal debt to invest, a behavior not seen since the tech bubble of 1999, when traders used credit cards and home equity loans to speculate on stocks. Of course, these episodes ended similarly, with many small investors wiped out when markets corrected.

Speculation in risky stocks is one thing, but speculation combined with leverage turns ordinary pullbacks into major corrections. Today, we see excessive leverage building up across markets. Margin debt is again climbing toward record highs, and free cash balances among investors have fallen deep into negative territory.

This is a dangerous setup. When investors run out of disposable income, they borrow to buy more stock. Margin debt relative to disposable personal income has historically peaked before major market downturns. Adding to the risk, many investors are piling into 2x and 3x leveraged ETFs while speculative call options massively outweigh protective puts. These dynamics create a fragile market structure. Rising prices fuel more leveraged buying, which pushes markets higher in a feedback loop. But when selling starts, the loop reverses—margin calls kick in, forced selling accelerates, and liquidity evaporates, causing sharp market downturns.

We’ve seen this happen repeatedly: the Volmageddon crash in 2018, the COVID selloff in 2020, and the meme stock blow-up in 2021. Now, we may be setting up for another sharp unwind centered around the zero-day options mania.

Complacency and Overconfidence Among Retail Investors

Greed and complacency have always been notable contrarian indicators for markets. Unfortunately, they are frequently ignored until it’s too late. Despite the growing risks, complacency has returned in full force. The Volatility Index (VIX) has collapsed to multi-year lows over the past three months, while credit spreads and other risk indicators remain near their most complacent levels in years.

Beneath this surface calm, the market is loaded with speculative leverage, narrow leadership in a handful of mega-cap stocks, and weak underlying breadth. At the same time, retail options activity remains at record levels, creating the perfect conditions for a market correction. Historically, markets are most vulnerable to sharp reversals when everyone expects calm.

Investors are once again convincing themselves that “this time is different.” Yet history shows the cycle of retail speculation and market corrections never really changes. Every bull market ends similarly, with euphoric excess by inexperienced investors, followed by painful corrections. The late 1990s tech bubble saw retail investors flooding into IPOs and call options before the Nasdaq fell 80%. In the mid-2000s, retail investors leveraged up on housing and stocks before the S&P 500 crashed by more than 50%. The 2021 meme stock mania ended in disaster, with GameStop and AMC round-tripping their gains. Each cycle has a different narrative, but the outcome is always the same.

Today, the story is driven by artificial intelligence, zero-day options, and massive concentration in the largest market-capitalization stocks. But the warning signs are no different: extreme retail optimism, widespread leverage, and complete complacency about risk.

What Investors Should Do to Manage Risk

One of the most concerning developments is the growing divergence between professional and retail investors. Institutional investors have quietly reduced risk, shifting toward defensive sectors and fixed income, while retail traders continue chasing speculative trades. Sentiment surveys confirm this imbalance, showing extreme bullishness among small traders, especially in options markets.

With these risks building under the surface, prudent investors should proactively protect their portfolios. No one can predict precisely when the market will correct, but the ingredients for a sharp downturn are clearly in place. Savvy investors should use this period of complacency to reduce risk exposure before the cycle turns.

Here are six practical steps investors should consider:

• Rebalancing portfolios to reduce overweight exposure to technology and speculative growth names.

• Increasing cash allocations to provide flexibility during periods of volatility.

• Rotating into more defensive sectors like healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities that tend to outperform during corrections.

• Reducing exposure to leverage by avoiding margin debt and leveraged ETFs.

• Using options prudently—not for gambling, but for protecting portfolios through longer-dated puts on broad market indexes.

• Focusing on companies with strong balance sheets, stable earnings, and reasonable valuations.

The explosion of zero-day options trading is not a sign of a healthy market. It is a symptom of an unhealthy market increasingly driven by speculation rather than investment discipline. Retail traders have moved from investing to gambling, chasing fast profits while ignoring the mounting risks. Greed is rampant, leverage is extreme, and complacency is near record levels.

Markets can remain irrational longer than expected, but history tells us these speculative periods always end in a painful correction.

Bull markets do not die quietly; they end with euphoric retail excess followed by painful corrections.

Investors who recognize the signs early will avoid the worst of the fallout and be positioned to capitalize when value opportunities return.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/21/2025 - 14:25

Public Law 119-21 as enacted on July 4, 2025

'F**k Clooney & Carville' - Hunter Biden Goes On Expletive-Laced Rant About... Everything

Hunter Biden, the scandal-plagued son of former President Joe Biden, launched into an unhinged, expletive-filled meltdown during a recent interview, attacking his own party's elite establishment while defending illegal immigration and making shocking admissions about his drug-fueled past.

In what can only be described as an unglued performance on Channel 5 with Andrew Callaghan, the younger Biden lashed out at top Democrats, calling George Clooney a "fucking brand" rather than an actor, dismissing James Carville as irrelevant, and exposing the Pod Save America hosts as grifting "junior fucking speech writers" who have been "making millions" off their Obama connections.

Hunter Biden just went off on the Democratic Party:

"Fuck him and everybody around him... George Clooney is not a fucking an actor. He's a brand."

"James Carville hasn't won a race in 40 fucking years."

"David Axelrod had one success in his political life and that was Barack… pic.twitter.com/Cdk9t29gwZ

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) July 21, 2025

Obama advisor David Axelrod wasn't spared either, with Biden dismissing his entire career: "David Axelrod had one success in his political life and that was Barack Obama and that was because of Barack Obama."

Biden even turned his venom on powerful Democrat consultant Anita Dunn, revealing the stunning amounts of money these political parasites have extracted from the party: "Anita Dunn has made $40-$50 million off the Democratic Party."

And in a final insult to the failing mainstream media, Biden called out CNN host Jake Tapper over his poor ratings. "What influence does Jake Tapper have over anything? He has the smallest audience on cable news," he said.

The disgraced Biden son also unleashed a barrage of F-bombs while ranting about illegal immigration and taking direct aim at hardworking Americans who support border security.

"All these Democrats say, 'you have to talk about and realize that people are really upset about illegal immigration'," Biden said. "Fuck you. How do you think your hotel room gets cleaned? How do you think you have food on your fucking table? Who do you think washes your dishes? Who do you think does your fucking garden? Who do you think is hear by the fucking sheer fucking, just, grit and will that they figured out a way to get here because they thought that they could give thereselfses and there family a better chance?"

NEW - Hunter Biden crashes out over whites and migrants: "White men in America are 45 more times likely to commit a fucking violent crime than an immigrant... I say fuck you!" pic.twitter.com/vBEe6cktBG

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) July 21, 2025

The disgraced Biden son didn't stop there, launching an attack on President Donald Trump's common-sense approach to immigration enforcement. "He's somehow conviced all of us that these people are the fucking criminals?" the former president's son fumed.

Perhaps most disturbing were Biden's casual admissions about his drug-manufacturing activities. In a stunning revelation that raises serious questions about what the Biden family was really up to, Hunter described in chilling detail how he became his own drug dealer.

"Places that you can go get it are some of the most dangerous places in whatever location you happen to be in. And it's everywhere," Biden said. "Mainly for that reason, I learned how to make my own."

This bombshell admission reveals the depths of depravity the Biden family has sunk to, with the president's son openly bragging about manufacturing illegal narcotics while his father occupied the nation's highest office.

Despite claiming sobriety since June 2019, Biden flew into a rage when confronted about the cocaine scandal that rocked the Biden White House, desperately trying to distance himself from the drugs found in the West Wing.

"They've convinced themselves it had to be me," he said. "I have been clean and sober since June of 2019 and I have not touched a drop of alcohol or a drug and I'm incredibly proud of that. And why would you bring cocaine to the White House? Why would I bring it to the White House and stick it into a cubby outside the situation room in the West Wing?"

The Biden crime family's legal troubles are well known. Hunter was convicted by a Delaware jury in June 2024 for illegally purchasing and possessing a firearm while strung out on drugs - charges directly related to his well-documented substance abuse problems. In a brazen display of the two-tiered justice system, Joe Biden immediately pardoned his corrupt son, proving once again that Democrats believe they're above the law.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Mon, 07/21/2025 - 14:05

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q2

Excerpt:

From the NMHC: Borrowing Conditions Continue to Improve While Most Respondents Report an Unchanged Market

The Market Tightness Index (54), Sales Volume Index (55) and Debt Financing Index (69) all came in above the breakeven level of 50, indicating improved conditions, while the Equity Financing Index remained just below 50 (48). Still, a majority of respondents for each of the four indexes reported unchanged conditions compared to April.

“Rent growth remains low in the South and West amidst a historic overhang of new supply, even though strong demand has kept absorptions high and occupancy stable,” noted NMHC’s Chief Economist and Senior Director of Research, Chris Bruen. “Meanwhile, tighter apartment conditions persist in the more supply-constrained Northeast and Midwest.”

“While high levels of political and economic uncertainty have kept some equity capital on the sidelines, survey respondents did report an uptick in transaction volume for the second consecutive quarter.”
...
• The Market Tightness Index came in at 54 this quarter – above the breakeven level of 50 – indicating tighter market conditions. Twenty-seven percent of respondents thought market conditions were tighter relative to three months ago, while 18% thought conditions had become looser. Slightly over half (54%) of respondents thought conditions were unchanged from April.

There is much more in the article.

US Orders New Restrictions On Flights From Mexico Amid Aviation Dispute

Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Transportation imposed new restrictions on flight operations from Mexico to the United States on July 19 in response to flight restrictions Mexico previously levied against the United States.

Under the new restrictions, Mexico will have to file schedules with the U.S. Transportation Department for all U.S. operations and obtain department approval to operate large passenger or cargo charter flights between Mexico and the United States.

In a July 19 statement, the U.S. Transportation Department said Mexico, since 2022, has not been in compliance with the Air Transport Agreement enacted between the two countries in 2015. Specifically, the department stated that Mexico had rescinded flight slots for three American, Delta, and United flights through the Benito Juarez International Airport and ordered U.S. cargo flights to relocate their operations.

“Mexico claimed it was to allow for construction to alleviate congestion at Benito Juarez International Airport (MEX) that has yet to materialize three years later,” the department stated.

“By restricting slots and mandating that all-cargo operations move out of MEX, Mexico has broken its promise, disrupted the market, and left American businesses holding the bag for millions in increased costs.”

The U.S. Transportation Department also issued an order that could lead to the revocation of an antitrust immunity agreement that had allowed Delta and Aeromexico to operate a joint venture.

“Let these actions serve as a warning to any country who thinks it can take advantage of the U.S., our carriers, and our market. America First means fighting for the fundamental principle of fairness,” Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said on July 19.

The Epoch Times reached out to Mexico’s Secretariat of Foreign Affairs for comment about the latest action from the U.S. government but did not receive a response before publication time.

Amid the broader dispute over Mexico’s compliance with the 2015 Air Transport Agreement, Delta and Aeromexico have sought to preserve their joint venture, arguing that they should not have to lose out as part of the U.S. retaliation over the Mexican government’s actions. A cancellation of the Delta/Aeromexico joint venture could jeopardize nearly two dozen routes and $800 million in economic benefits for both countries, according to the airlines.

“The U.S. Department of Transportation’s tentative proposal to terminate its approval of the strategic and pro-competitive partnership between Delta and Aeromexico would cause significant harm to consumers traveling between the U.S. and Mexico, as well as U.S. jobs, communities, and transborder competition,” Delta said in a statement responding to the U.S. Transportation Department’s recent actions.

Aeromexico’s press team stated that it was reviewing the order and planned to coordinate with Delta to present a joint response in the coming days.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/21/2025 - 13:45

What GAO Found The laws and regulations that govern contracting with the federal government are designed to ensure that federal procurements are conducted fairly. On occasion, vendors or offerors interested in government procurements may have reason to believe that a contract has been, or is about to be, awarded improperly or illegally, or that they have been improperly denied a contract or an opportunity to compete for a contract. A major avenue for relief for those concerned about the propriety of an award has been GAO's bid protest forum. The bid protest process established in the Competition in Contracting Act of 1984 seeks to provide a meaningful dispute resolution process while also ensuring the timely resolution of protests so that agencies can proceed with acquiring necessary goods or services. GAO resolves all protests to the maximum extent practicable within 100 calendar days of filing. Additionally, GAO is authorized to dismiss protests that on their face, do not state a valid basis for protest. GAO routinely resolves over 1,000 bid protests annually within the 100 calendar day period. Protesters achieve some form of relief in approximately 50 percent of cases filed with our Office. GAO's bid protest statistics reflect that over the past 10 years protest filings have overall declined by approximately 32 percent. Figure 1: Percentage and Number of Protest Case Filings at GAO FY2015-FY2024 As part of the Servicemember Quality of Life Improvement and National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2025, Congress tasked GAO with proposing certain potential reforms to the bid protest process, including proposals to modify the pleading standard applied by GAO before a disappointed offeror may obtain access to agency procurement records, and for shifting the costs of other parties to the protester when a protester files an unsuccessful protest. As addressed in the response and in this testimony, GAO proposes to clarify GAO's pleading standard. Also, while GAO remains neutral on creating a process to shift costs or fees, GAO discusses options that Congress could consider to implement such an approach. Why GAO Did This Study For nearly 100 years, GAO has provided an objective, independent, and impartial forum for the resolution of disputes concerning the awards of federal contracts. Consistent with Congress' mandate in the Competition in Contracting Act of 1984, GAO provides for the inexpensive and expeditious resolution of more than 1,000 protests annually. GAO's testimony provides background information on bid protests and recent bid protest trends. This testimony is based on GAO's prior legal work related to bid protests, including GAO's Bid Protest Annual Reports to Congress. This testimony describes key features of the bid protest process. It includes recent trends in bid protest filings, as well as addressing GAO's recent response to Section 885 of the Servicemember Quality of Life Improvement and National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2025, Pub. L. No. 118-159 (Dec. 23, 2024). For more information, contact Kenneth Patton at Pattonk@gao.gov.

Fed Chair Powell Criminally Referred To DoJ For Perjury

Last week saw President Trump kinda sorta deny reported plans to fire Fed Chair Jay Powell:

“We’re not planning on doing it,” he said Wednesday at the White House. 

“I don’t rule out anything,” he added, “but I think it’s highly unlikely, unless he has to leave for fraud.”

But now, that latter comment is coming into play as Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., refers Powell to the Department of Justice (DOJ) for criminal charges, accusing him of two specific instances of lying under oath.

Luna is accusing Powell of perjury on two occasions, according to a letter to the DOJ first obtained by Fox News Digital.

"On June 25, 2025, Chairman Powell provided testimony under oath before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve’s Eccles Building. In his statements, he made several materially false claims," Luna's letter said.

Specifically, she accused him of lying about lavish amenities at the Federal Reserve's Eccles Building and misrepresenting its state of maintenance.

"Separately, in a letter to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russell Vought, Chairman Powell characterized the changes that escalated the cost of the project from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion as minor. However, documents reviewed by congressional investigators indicate that the scope and cost overruns of this project were neither minor in nature nor in substance," Luna wrote.

She claimed his statement that the cost increase was to simplify construction and avoid further delays was false.

"It is contradicted by the Federal Reserve’s final submission to the National Capital Planning Commission (NCPC) and by the assertions made in Director Vought’s own original letter to Chairman Powell," Luna wrote.

"According to those records, the revised plan includes a VIP private dining room, premium marble finishes, modernized elevators, water features, and a roof terrace garden—features that Powell publicly denied existed. While Powell presented the changes as simplifications, the actual project plans suggest the opposite."

Trade outlet Mortgage Professional reported that Powell denied all accusations of perjury and has directed a formal watchdog probe into renovation project costs of the Eccles Building.

She first announced she would be referring Powell last week on X.

Perjury can be punishable by up to five years in prison in addition to fines.

While Trump and his allies would clearly like to see a Fed Chair cut rates, there are unintended consequences they could be missing here. Firing and replacing Powell would make investors nervous about the stability of the Fed and its ability to deliver low and stable price inflation.

This could push longer-term interest rates up – the opposite of Trump's goal.

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/21/2025 - 13:25

Israel Pummels Hodeidah Port, Says 'Yemen's Fate - The Same As Tehran'

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out large-scale strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen on Monday, in order to halt missile fire targeting Israel and tankers bound for Israeli ports traversing the Red Sea. At one point he said in his statement, "As I have made clear — Yemen's fate will be the same as Tehran."

According to the IDF, the operation targeted and destroyed military infrastructure belonging to the Houthi forces at the port of Hodeidah, including engineering equipment used to rebuild port facilities, fuel tanks, and naval vessels involved in military operations against Israel. The IDF also struck boats in nearby waters said to be linked to Houthi operations.

IDF strike in Yemen, via YNet News

"The IDF has identified the continuous efforts and actions of the Houthi terrorist regime to reestablish terrorist infrastructure at the port, and as such, the components used to advance these efforts were struck," the IDF said.

"The Houthi terrorist regime exploits the maritime zone for the use of force and to carry out terrorist attacks against passing vessels and global maritime trade. The targets struck demonstrate how the Houthi terrorist regime utilizes civilian infrastructure for military and terrorist purposes."

And Defense Minister Katz announced separately, "The IDF is now attacking terrorist targets of the Houthi terrorist regime in the port of Hodeidah and is vigorously enforcing any attempt to restore the terrorist infrastructures that were attacked in the past. As I have made clear – Yemen’s law is Tehran’s law."

He followed by threatening there could be more to come: "The Houthis will pay a heavy price for firing missiles at the State of Israel. We will continue to act at all times and in all places to defend the State of Israel," the defense chief said.

The last significant Israeli aerial attacks occurred on July 7. But these operations aren't shutting down Houthi aggression against Israel. This latest strike operation appears to have primarily been done through drones.

Still, the Houthis remain committed to attacking Israel so long as the IDF is operating in the Gaza Strip. Israeli media reports say there have been at least six Houthi ballistic missiles as well as several drones launched on Israel since the last IDF strikes of early July.

Shutting down of the Eilat port
It is Israel's third busiest port and the only port with access to the Red Sea. The blockade imposed by Yemen's Ansarallah has caused a major drop in shipping activity, some estimates say 85%. Regardless of the exact level of activity, definetly… pic.twitter.com/TzPIehhAFB

— Talha Ahmad (@talhaahmad967) July 20, 2025

In Gaza, Israel's military actually looks poised to expand the ground offensive, with  Channel 12 news quoting military sources saying there is currently a plan "for taking over Gaza," widening the Israel Defense Force’s hold on the territory beyond its current control of around 70 to 75 percent.

Gaza Health Ministry figures say the overall Palestinian death toll is now approaching 60,000 - as hundreds continue to die almost by the day.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/21/2025 - 12:25

FBI And NSA Had Low Confidence That Russia Was Behind The DNC Hack

Authored by Ivan Pentchoukov via The Epoch Times,

The FBI and the National Security Agency, in the heat of the 2016 election, dissented from an intelligence community assessment, which judged that Russia was behind the alleged hack of the Democratic National Committee servers and the subsequent release of stolen emails.

The FBI and NSA instead had “low confidence” in the attribution to Russia, according to a Sept. 12, 2016, Intelligence Community Assessment released to the public for the first time on July 18, 2025, as part of a batch of records declassified by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

“FBI and NSA, however, have low confidence in the attribution of the data leaks to Russia,” the assessment states. “They agree that the disclosures appear consistent with what we might expect from Russian influence activities but note that we lack sufficient technical details to correlate the information posted online to Russian state-sponsored actors.”

A memo prepared for President Barack Obama, dated two days after the assessment, blames Russia for the hack and leak and does not mention the dissent by the FBI and NSA, according to the newly released documents.

The revelation is the latest twist in the decade-long controversy over the DNC hack, which lies at the very root of the now-discredited Russia collusion narrative, which ensnared the nascent Trump administration in 2017 and metamorphosed into the special counsel investigation by Robert Mueller. Mueller concluded the investigation with no evidence to support the claim that Russia colluded with then-candidate Donald Trump to influence the election.

The hacking of the DNC was central to the collusion narrative. The FBI’s having low confidence that Russia was behind the breach is significant because the bureau had received, three weeks prior to dissenting with the assessment, the final report on the hack by Crowdstrike, the private cybersecurity firm hired by the DNC to remediate the hack in the spring of 2016. The Crowdstrike reports have never been made public. The company’s then-president, Shawn Henry, told the House Intelligence Committee in late 2017 that his firm had no evidence that files were stolen from the DNC systems.

On Oct. 7, 2016, less than a month after the assessment marked by the FBI and NSA dissent, the United States accused Russia of hacking the DNC and leaking the files with the intent “to interfere with the U.S. election process.” Obama approved the release of the statement, which was made public via a joint release by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Department of Homeland Security.

Oct. 7 was one of the most eventful days of the 2016 presidential cycle. This was the day of the release of the Access Hollywood audio recording of Trump. It was also the day of the release of the first batch of the emails of former Obama counselor John Podesta.

Oct. 7 was also a time when the FBI was still working on obtaining a copy of the DNC server images to conduct a forensic analysis. It is unclear if the FBI had changed its “low confidence” assessment before the release of the public statement accusing Russia.

The newly released documents show that by Dec. 7, 2016, two months after accusing Russia of hacking the DNC, the U.S. intelligence community was still relying on Crowdstrike’s analysis for its assessment.

“The U.S. Intelligence Community has high confidence in its attribution of the intrusions into the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) networks, based on the forensic evidence identified by a private cyber-firm and the IC’s review and understanding of cyber activities by the Russian Government,” states a memo drafted in preparation for a principals committee meeting.

At the time of the drafting of the memo, the intelligence community had still not reached a consensus on who leaked the DNC emails. The same memo states that “most IC agencies assess with moderate confidence that Russian services probably orchestrated at least some of the disclosures of U.S. political information.”

A day later, on Dec. 8, 2016, the FBI renewed its dissent with the assessment.

“FBI will be drafting a dissent this afternoon. Please remove our seal an [sic] annotations of co-authorship,” states an FBI email to the group preparing the presidential daily brief for Obama. Obama requested the preparation of the brief to be ready for release on Dec. 9, 2016.

An hour after the FBI expressed its intention to dissent from the assessment, an email from a DNI official to more than 110 intelligence community recipients said that the presidential brief would be postponed.

“Based on some new guidance, we are going to push back publication of the PDB. It will not run tomorrow and is not likely to run until next week,” the email from Director PDB/ODNI stated. The acronyms stand for presidential daily brief and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

While the briefing memo was postponed, the principals committee meeting took place as scheduled in the Situation Room at the White House on Dec. 9. In attendance were the head of the key Obama administration agencies, including National Security Advisor Susan Rice, Secretary of State John Kerry, Attorney General Loretta Lynch, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson, and CIA Director John Brennan, among others.

Notably absent from this meeting were the directors of the two dissenting agencies: the FBI Director James Comey and NSA Director Michael Rogers. Instead, attending for the FBI was Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, and for the NSA, Deputy Director Richard Ledgett, according to the Summary of Conclusions for Meeting of the Principals Committee dated Dec. 9, 2016.

The conclusion of the memo from the Principals Committee meeting outlined a list of recommended punitive measures against Russia. The list concludes with a bullet point stating that the principals in the meeting agreed to “publicly release and attribute to Russian intelligence services technical and other information” about the intrusion and a spearphishing campaign.

That directive, set to be actioned by Dec. 19, appears to have resulted in a joint analysis report by the FBI and DHS released to the public on Dec. 29, 2016. This technical review included a mapping of the cyber intrusion, a sample snippet of code, and a set of IP addresses used by the attackers. Wordfence, a cybersecurity firm with millions of clients, analyzed the code snippet and traced it back to a malware provider based in Ukraine.

“The IP addresses that DHS provided may have been used for an attack by a state actor like Russia. But they don’t appear to provide any association with Russia. They are probably used by a wide range of other malicious actors, especially the 15% of IP addresses that are Tor exit nodes,” WordFence CEO Mark Maunder wrote in an analysis of the DHS data.

“The malware sample is old, widely used, and appears to be Ukrainian. It has no apparent relationship with Russian intelligence and it would be an indicator of compromise for any website.”

In the days and weeks after the meeting, emails show officials preparing an intelligence community assessment on Russia’s interference in the 2016 election. Obama ordered the assessment to be read by Jan. 9, 2017, and later moved the deadline up to Jan. 3.

The working plan was to brief Obama and the President-elect Trump on the assessment on Jan. 3–4, brief the Gang of Eight and the intelligence committees in Congress on Jan. 4–6, and to release a version of the assessment to the public on Jan. 6, 2017, the day when Congress was to convene to certify Trump’s election.

One of the fruits of those efforts, a version of the Intelligence Community Assessment dated Jan. 5, states that the FBI had high confidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin had ordered a campaign to meddle with the 2016 election in favor of Trump and that Russian intelligence services hacked the DNC and leaked stolen emails.

It is unclear how the FBI came to change its “low confidence” assessment.

In the years that followed, the FBI’s work on the investigation into Trump was heavily scrutinized by the House Intelligence Committee, the Senate Intelligence Committee, the Office of Inspector General, and special counsel John Durham.

To date, all of the public findings from these investigations include no further evidence for the assertion that Russia was behind the theft and release of the DNC emails. Instead, the inquiries by the House Intelligence Committee, Inspector General Michael Horowitz, and Durham, determined that the evidentiary core of the FBI’s probe consisted of the now-debunked reports by former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele.

Steele was retained by Fusion GPS, which was in turn retained by the Clinton campaign through Perkins Coie, the same law firm that recommended that the DNC hire Crowdstrike to handle the cyber intrusion.

While the FBI was ultimately unable to verify any of the Steele reporting, the dossier played a central role in the bureau’s decision to secure surveillance warrants to monitor Carter Page, a Trump campaign associate. An inspector general inquiry into the bureau’s work on securing the warrants found significant failures among the rank-and-file and supervisors involved.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/21/2025 - 12:05

Pin High

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

US equities closed little changed on Friday. Duration performed best, with the NASDAQ eking out a minor gain while the Dow Jones fell by 0.32%. Earlier in the day European stocks had struggled for direction. The FTSE100 closed 0.22% higher, while the CAC was mostly unchanged and the DAX lost a bit of ground.

Sovereign curves mostly bull-steepened over the course of last week though there were notable exceptions in the UK and Canada, who both saw steepening of the bear variety. The Australian front-end fell sharply after a soft employment report saw the unemployment rate leap from 4.1% to 4.3% and seemingly locked in another rate cut from the RBA on August 12th. Indeed, the lift in unemployment leaves the RBA looking a day late and a Dollar short after keeping policy rates unchanged in July, despite the market being fully-priced for a cut.

That soft read on unemployment also left the AUD a conspicuously poor performer. It’s down ~0.6% over the week, with the NZD now doing its best to catch up after the Q2 CPI report released this morning showed growth in prices of 0.5% QoQ, rather than the expected 0.6%. The beat mostly came courtesy of lower-than-expected tradable inflation which perhaps doesn’t change the outlook too much for the more domestically-focused RBNZ and lends some credence to ideas that other countries would import disinflation as the Chinese exportable surplus that usually heads to the US encounters tariff barriers.

The Taiwan Dollar and other Asian currencies in general have also had a bad run recently. The DXY continues its three-week climb and the US-adjacent MXN and CAD have also held up comparatively well. The JPY, meanwhile, has opened up bid this morning as traders wind back risk discounts following a poor election result for the ruling coalition over the weekend that has seen them lose their majority in the upper house.

Having no doubt spent the weekend tuned in to Scottie Scheffler’s dominant win in the British Open, President Trump is off to Scotland this week on a “semi-private” trip to inspect his golf properties. Later in the tour he will be meeting with UK PM Starmer who is continuing to lurch from bunker to bunker as crises as diverse as Britain’s parlous public finances (and the resultant bond market gyrations), creaking public services and the war in Ukraine all contribute to the perception of a political omnishambles.

By contrast, Trump probably feels like he is hitting pin-high on every hole after new housing starts, industrial production, producer prices, jobless claims, retail sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index all printed better than expected in recent days.

Consumer sentiment rose from 60.7 to 61.8 with solid gains for both ‘current conditions’ and the ‘expectations’ sub-indices. 1-year inflation expectations moderated from 5% to 4.4%, while 5-10 year inflation expectations fell from 4% to 3.6%. Those inflation expectations figures are particularly interesting in the context of a slightly hotter-than-expected headline CPI figure last week and President Trump’s ongoing attacks on Fed Chair Powell. Main Street evidently disagrees with the orthodox view that exposing the price of money to political influence is anathema to low and stable inflation, or positive economic outcomes.

The Trump-Starmer meeting will likely focus on ending the war in Ukraine. Trump has recently authorized the transfer of US Patriot missile systems to Ukraine and Starmer recently met with both Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz to thrash out details of the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ that he says could include a boots on the ground peacekeeping element. That is all very well in theory, but Vladimir Putin is unlikely to take a positive view of NATO troops on the Russian border and questions of logistics and arms production still linger. This as Politico warns that “an aging and increasingly impotent Europe is heading for bankruptcy unless it embraces major change...”

Trump has given Russia 50 days to agree to ceasefire terms after which he says the US will impose secondary sanctions on countries that continue to buy Russian exports (notably India and China’s purchases of Russian crude), effectively cutting of finance for the Russian war machine. Brent crude is up slightly this morning, but still a couple of Dollars below the levels reached last Monday when the secondary sanctions threat was first announced.

Aside from Trump’s tour of the UK, the highlight this week will likely be the ECB’s policy rate decision on Thursday. RaboResearch expects no change to the deposit rate at this meeting and we see the current 2% level as the likely the endpoint of the ECB’s cutting cycle. OIS futures still have one more cut priced for this year and while that’s not our baseline view, we certainly think it’s possible if tariffs bite harder than we currently expect.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/21/2025 - 11:25

Key Events This Week: Light On Data, Heavy On Earnings

As discussed earlier, this week is pretty quiet in terms of planned economic and macro events... although as Jim Reid notes, this year has been as busy as he can remember outside of a crisis in terms of unplanned events so the first part of this sentence will likely be proved to be meaningless. 

In terms of the known highlights, we have the global flash PMIs on Thursday alongside what is universally accepted to be an ECB on hold meeting. With the Fed on their blackout ahead of next week's FOMC, the only noise will come from how hard Trump wants to continue to push on with criticizing Powell (on a daily basis). Powell does open a regulatory conference tomorrow but won't discuss monetary policy given the blackout. 

The key US data are some regional manufacturing surveys tomorrow, existing home sales on Wednesday, new home sales, jobless claims and the Chicago Fed survey on Thursday, and then durable goods on Friday. 

In Europe, the key to the ECB meeting this Thursday is how long they're expected to pause. The central bank will also release its bank lending survey tomorrow.

In terms of economic data, other sentiment indicators out in the region will include consumer confidence in Germany (Thursday), the UK, France and Italy (Friday). The German Ifo survey is out on Friday.

It's certainly busier on the earnings side as we start to see Q2 earnings get fleshed out a little more this week with 135 S&P 500 and 189 Stoxx 600 companies reporting. Two of the Magnificent 7, Alphabet and Tesla, will report on Wednesday. Other tech firms releasing results this week include IBM, ServiceNow and Intel. Defence firms including RTX, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman also report.

In Europe, earnings will be due from the region's largest company, SAP tomorrow. Three others from the top 10 by market cap - LVMH, Roche and Nestle - also report, along with several European banks. See the full day-by-day calendar of events as usual at the end 

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday July 21

• Data: US June leading index, China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates, Canada June industrial product price index, raw materials price index
• Central banks: BoC Q2 business outlook survey
• Earnings: Verizon, Roper, NXP Semiconductors, Ryanair, Domino's Pizza

Tuesday July 22

• Data: US July Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Richmond Fed business conditions, UK June public finances, France June retail sales
• Central banks: Fed's Powell speaks, ECB's bank lending survey, BoE's Bailey speaks, RBA minutes of the July meeting
• Earnings: SAP, Coca-Cola, RTX, Texas Instruments, Intuitive Surgical, Danaher, Capital One Financial, Chubb,
• Lockheed Martin, Sherwin-Williams, Northrop Grumman, General Motors, MSCI, Givaudan, EQT, Equifax, Halliburton, Sartorius

Wednesday July 23

• Data: US June existing home sales, Eurozone July consumer confidence
• Central banks: BoJ's Uchida speaks
• Earnings: Alphabet, Tesla, IBM, T-Mobile US, ServiceNow, AT&T, Thermo Fisher Scientific, NextEra Energy, Boston Scientific, GE Vernova, Amphenol, Iberdrola, UniCredit, Fiserv, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Equinor, Hilton, Freeport-McMoRan, CSX, Thales, Moncler 
• Auctions: US 20-yr Bond (reopening, $13bn)

Thursday July 24

• Data: US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and the Eurozone flash July PMIs, US June Chicago Fed national activity index, new home sales, July Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, Germany August GfK consumer confidence, France July business confidence, EU27 June new car registrations, Canada May retail sales
• Central banks: ECB decision
• Earnings: LVMH, Roche, Nestle, Blackstone, SK Hynix, Honeywell, TotalEnergies, Union Pacific, Intel, BNP Paribas, Newmont, Lloyds, Digital Realty Trust, Deutsche Boerse, Dassault Systemes, L3Harris, Keurig Dr Pepper, Galderma, Nokia, BT, MTU Aero Engines, Southwest Airlines, Dow, Sabadell, Repsol, Deckers Outdoor, Carrefour, American Airlines, Wizz Air
• Auctions: US 10-yr TIPS ($21bn)

Friday July 25

• Data: US June durable goods orders, July Kansas City Fed services activity, UK July GfK consumer confidence, June retail sales, Japan July Tokyo CPI, June PPI services, Germany July Ifo survey, France July consumer confidence, Italy July consumer and manufacturing confidence, Eurozone June M3
• Central banks: ECB's survey of professional forecasters
• Earnings: HCA Healthcare, Charter Communications, Volkswagen, NatWest, Eni

Looking at just the US, the major economic data release this week is the durable goods report on Friday. Fed officials are not expected to comment on monetary policy this week, reflecting the blackout period ahead of the July FOMC meeting. 

Monday, July 21 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 

Tuesday, July 22 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Wednesday, July 23 

• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, June (GS +2.0%, consensus -0.7%, last +0.8%)

Thursday, July 24 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 19 (GS 231k, consensus 230k, last 221k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 12 (consensus 1,960k, last 1,956k)
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, July preliminary (consensus 52.7, last 52.9): S&P Global US services PMI, July preliminary (consensus 53.1, last 52.9)
• 10:00 AM New home sales, June (GS +3.1%, consensus +4.3%, last -13.7%)

Friday, July 25 

• 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, June preliminary (GS -9.0%, consensus -10.8%, last +16.4%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, June preliminary (GS -0.1%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.5%); Core capital goods orders, June preliminary (GS -0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +1.7%); Core capital goods shipments, June preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%): We estimate that durable goods orders retrenched 9% in the preliminary June report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting a partial normalization in commercial aircraft orders after last month’s spike. We forecast a 0.2% decline in core capital goods orders—reflecting contractionary new orders readings for manufacturing surveys in June and payback for the prior month’s outsized increase—and a 0.3% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the increase in orders over the prior month.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/21/2025 - 11:15

Polymarket Buys Crypto Exchange, Opening Door To US Return

Just days after the DoJ and CFTC dropped their investigations into Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market has struck a deal that could herald the company's official return to the US market.

As Bloomberg reports, the predictions marketplace is buying a little-known derivatives exchange called QCX, that will allow Polymarket to legally re-enter the US, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Polymarket will pay $112 million to acquire QCX, one of the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public.

QCX applied for CFTC licensing in 2022 and only got the regulator’s blessing to operate on July 9.

A spokesperson for Polymarket confirmed the acquisition.

The move will formally open the betting site to US users after its surging popularity in 2024 when users placed millions of dollars of wagers on President Trump returning to office.

Just this week they launched their first look at 2028 Presidential Odds

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/21/2025 - 11:00

The focus of this and past presidencies has been on immigration legal and illegal. The influx of unestablished legal immigrants has been higher than normal. Past presidents have talked to it and taken action. It was not till this presidency that a more personal look by this president has taken the forefront. He deficiently does […]

The post Immigration and Deportation appeared first on Angry Bear.