Stocks Rebound To Session Highs After Soaring Corporate Layoffs Raise Rate Cut Odds

US equity futures are higher, rebounding from session lows for the second day in a row, amid headlines that layoffs are surging due to AI which in turn is raising odds of a Dec rate cut, with JPM saying that "the market is weighing a weaker labor market and potential spending vs. evidence on the efficacy (and ROI) of AI plus productivity gains." Challenger job cuts jumped to over 150K in October, nearly triple the year-earlier period and the most in more than two decades. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.2% higher ahead of the last major earnings day of a season that’s delivered stellar results; Nasdaq futures are also up 0.2%, with Semis catching a bid driven by MRVL (+11%, takeover chatter) and NVDA (up +1.4% after yesterday’s roll on the OpenAI govt backstop headlines). TSLA rose 0.5% ahead of a vote on granting Elon Musk a potential $1 trillion pay package. In the premarket, cyclicals look flat to Defensives, while commodity-related plays are bid. The commodity complex is higher led by Energy and Metals. Asia closed higher (Shanghai +97bps/Hang Seng +2.12%/Nikkei +1.34%) driven by strength in growth/tech/ai names, while Europe is down small (FTSE -25bps/DAX -10bps/CAC -45bps). US 10 year yield down small at 4.13% on quiet macro news as the curve bull steepens, and the USD is weaker. The macro data focus is on Challenger Job Cuts which soared to 153,074K, the highest for October since 20023, and state-level initial jobless claims. Today also brings another heavy dose of earnings (pre-open we get APD, BDX, CMI, COP, H, PENN, PH, RL, ROK, TPR...post-close we get AKAM, CE, EXPE, MCHP, SNDK, TTWO, WYNN), a handful of Fed speakers, the BOE rate decision and TSLA’s annual meeting (which includes voting on Musk’s pay package). Markets also digest the likelihood of the Supreme Court striking down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs after oral arguments yesterday (Goldman expects a ruling in Dec of Jan ’26 // GIR full take).

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Tesla (TSLA) +0.6% after the deadline for investors to vote on Elon Musk gargantuan compensation plan expired at midnight (Nvidia +1.4%, Meta +0.8%, Alphabet +0.7%, Apple -0.2%, Amazon -0.03%, Microsoft -0.1%).

• CarMax (KMX) falls 11% after the used car retailer’s board terminated the employment of CEO Bill Nash.
• Coherent (COHR) soars 18% after the semiconductor device company’s results and forecast underlined AI tailwinds.
• DoorDash (DASH) falls 11% after its forecast for fourth-quarter adjusted Ebitda fell short of the average analyst estimate at the midpoint.
• Duolingo (DUOL) is down 23% after the language-learning software company gave a weak fourth-quarter bookings forecast. Analysts note that the management’s focus on user growth weighs on the bookings outlook.
• Elf Beauty (ELF) sinks 21% after the cosmetics company’s full-year outlooks for adjusted earnings per share and net sales both missed analysts’ estimates.
• Fastly (FSLY) jumps 19% after the software company’s results and raised full-year revenue forecast showed a strong growth recovery.
• HubSpot (HUBS) falls 10% after the software company reported its third-quarter results and gave an outlook.
• LegalZoom.com (LZ) rises 27% after the legal services company gave an outlook that is seen as reinforcing positive growth trends, prompting William Blair to upgrade the stock.
• Marvell (MRVL) is up 8% as people familiar say that SoftBank Group Corp. explored a potential takeover of the US chipmaker earlier this year.
• Papa John’s (PZZA) falls 7% after the pizza company reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) falls 1.8%, becoming the latest chipmaker to deliver an upbeat forecast and still leave investors underwhelmed.
• Snap (SNAP) surges 19% after the company announced a $400 million partnership with Perplexity AI Inc. to incorporate its AI-powered search engine into Snapchat.
• Stagwell Inc. (STGW) soars 80% after announcing a partnership with Palantir.

Trading this week has been marked by a pullback in the biggest beneficiaries of the artificial-intelligence race, which have powered much of this year’s rally, before dip-buyers stepped in to offer support. Corporate America has continued to deliver robust results, with 82% of the 413 S&P 500 companies reporting this quarter beating earnings expectations, 14% have missed. 

“You stay sane by trying to stay long-term,” Carmignac fund manager Obe Ejikeme told Bloomberg TV. AI “is a megatrend and will pay off over the next five to ten years, no doubt about that. But staying sane is not putting all your eggs in that basket.”

Price action divergence to results continues, even within AI-related momentum sectors. Qualcomm became the latest semiconductor firm to deliver an upbeat forecast that failed to impress investors, while ARM rose on a bullish outlook pointing to an AI chip demand surge.  Meanwhile, semiconductors remain top of mind: Softbank had explored acquiring Marvell earlier in the year to combine it with ARM, in what would have represented the largest semiconductor deal in history. Open AI’s CFO suggested the market should have more ‘exuberance’ for AI’s potential, while hinting the US government could backstop AI financing. 

Caution over lofty tech valuations that weighed on markets earlier in the week continued to linger. Qualcomm, the biggest maker of smartphone chips, became the latest semiconductor firm to issue an upbeat forecast that failed to impress investors, sending its shares 1.8% lower. 

Treasuries rebounded after the latest Challenger job cuts jumped to over 150K in October, nearly triple the year-earlier period and the most for the month in more than two decades. YTD job cuts have exceeded 1M, the most since the pandemic. The yield on 10-year notes fell two basis points to 4.14%, while the dollar headed for its biggest drop in three weeks.

Traders will also weigh the implications of the US Supreme Court hinting it is ready to put significant limits on Trump’s far-reaching agenda, adding to uncertain sentiment. US layoffs remain a focus too, with October seeing the most job cuts in more than two decades. US shutdown impact is spreading to aviation with plans to cut flight capacity by 10% at 40 high-volume markets to alleviate pressure on air traffic controllers. 

Following days of mixed signals from Fed officials and scant economic data during the longest US government shutdown in history, investors will also closely watch a slate of policymaker speeches Thursday for clues on the interest-rate outlook. The Bank of England held interest rates at 4% in a five-to-four vote that laid the groundwork for a December cut. The pound pared gains of as much as 0.4% against the dollar. Gilts rose across the curve, with the two-year yield down three basis points to 3.76%.

Traders have gradually trimmed bets on a quarter-point rate cut next month to around 50% over the past week, before the job-cuts report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. bumped those odds back up to 60%. Still, “the overall nudge pressure is up for yields,” wrote Padhraic Garvey and Michiel Tukker at ING. “This, of course, partly reflects the ‘driving in the fog’ metaphor for the government shutdown, but also with a dose of inflation concern and a pinch of risk-on ebullience.”

Europe's Stoxx 600 is down 0.2% with construction underperforming and miners rising. Legrand shares sank as demand for data center infrastructure started to ebb. The construction and insurance sectors are among the biggest laggards, while mining and telecom shares outperform. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

• Novo shares rise as much as 3.9% after a judge denied Pfizer’s request to temporarily block the Danish drugmaker’s $10 billion bid to acquire the obesity startup Metsera, saying the US pharmaceutical company’s objections to the deal don’t warrant a delay.
• Rheinmetall shares rise as much as 3.1% after the German defense firm maintained its guidance for the full year in a move Bernstein said could reassure investors who had expected a softer quarter.
• Sainsbury shares rise as much as 1.7% as the British retailer increased its full-year profit guidance to exceed the £1 billion set out in previous updates.
• Deutsche Post shares gain as much as 6.7% after the logistics company reported earnings well ahead of expectations, a performance analysts say was aided by its tight cost control.
• Novonesis shares jump as much as 8.2% after the Danish maker of industrial enzymes reported better-than-expected organic sales growth for the third quarter and lifted the bottom of its forecast range for the full year.
• Adecco climbs as much as 11% after third-quarter results which analysts view as “strong across the board.”
• DiaSorin falls as much as 16% after the Italian medical-diagnostics company lowered its guidance for the year and delivered third-quarter results below expectations.
• Legrand drops as much as 13% after its third-quarter missed expectations and full-year guidance was left unchanged.
• Air France-KLM shares slide as much as 14%, the steepest drop in three years. The airline group reported a miss on Ebit in the third quarter, driven by lower-than-expected unit revenue.
• HelloFresh shares fall as much as 15% after Grizzly Research published a report on the meal-kit company.
• Wise shares drop as much as 9.9%, slumping to a seven-month low, after the payments company reported a sharp drop in underlying pretax profit in the first half.
• Teleperformance drops as much as 8.6% after lowering its guidance for the full year, citing “an increasingly volatile business environment.”
• Worldline shares lost as much as 12%, erasing an earlier advance, after the digital payment company announced a share sale and provided a weak outlook for 2026.
• Maersk shares fall as much as 7.5% after the Danish shipping giant reported its latest earnings.

Earlier, Asian stocks climbed the most in over a week, as dip buyers lifted technology shares after a two-day selloff. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.2%, its biggest advance since Oct. 27, with TSMC, Tencent and SK hynix among the key boosts to the gauge’s gain. Shares advanced in Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea. Indian stocks were steady.  The rebound underscores investors’ continued confidence in the long-term potential of artificial intelligence, even as concerns over stretched valuations and market concentration linger. The risk-on sentiment was also helped by the positive mood from Wall Street as dip-buyers emerge. 

In FX, the dollar is weaker following the surprise release of Challenger job data, showing the worst October for cuts since 2003. Krone is the strongest G-10 currency after Norges Bank kept rates on hold and reiterated the pace of reductions will be slow. Sterling higher, gilts slightly underperforming ahead of the Bank of England decision, also expected to be a hold.

In rates, yields are 2bp-3bp lower across the curve led by intermediates, with 5s30s spread steeper by around 1bp supported by soft job cuts data and gains for gilts after Bank of England’s 5-4 decision to hold rates at 4%, with dissenters preferring a cut. US 10-year yields near 4.12% is about 4bp lower on the day; UK counterpart had a steep 3bp drop after Bank of England rate announcement.

In commodities, gold prices rising and back above $4,000/oz. Oil prices jumping too, with Brent futures up 0.7% and about $64/barrel.

Looking to the day ahead, the main highlight will be the Bank of England’s latest policy decision. There’s also plenty of speakers, including ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Kocher, Schnabel, Villeroy, Nagel and Lane, along with the Fed’s Williams, Barr, Hammack, Waller and Musalem. On the data side, we’ll get German industrial production and Euro Area retail sales for September. The US economic calendar — including 3Q preliminary productivity and unit labor costs, weekly jobless claims and September wholesale trade — will be empty again as US government data continue to be postponed by the govt shutdown. ConocoPhillips, DataDog, Ralph Lauren and Warner Bros Discovery are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. Conoco is expected to post its worst third-quarter profit in four years amid lower crude prices brought on by higher output globally. 

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%,
• Nasdaq 100 mini 0.2%,
• Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed,
• DAX little changed,
• CAC 40 -0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.14%
• VIX little changed at 17.97
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1223.31,
• euro +0.2% at $1.1515
• WTI crude +0.7% at $60.01/barrel

Top Overnight News

• US companies announced the most job cuts for any October in more than two decades as artificial intelligence reshapes industries and cost-cutting accelerates. Companies last month announced 153,074 job cuts, nearly triple the number during the same month last year. BBG
• 8 centrist Democrats in the Senate could be prepared to vote in favor of reopening the government, but they are receiving pushback from more progressive corners of the party. The Hill
• Senate Democrats ended their workday Tuesday agonizing over what to do about the record-setting government shutdown. Many of those same lawmakers woke up Wednesday morning ready to fight on following Tuesday’s party success. The sweeping democratic gains in this week’s election has bolstered party senators insisting democrats dig in and force Republicans to accede to their demand for an extension of key health insurance subsidies. Politico
• Trump and Hill Republicans are now in completely different places on the political impacts of this seemingly endless shutdown: Punchbowl
• Trump said regarding the US shutdown, that it was a big factor in elections, while he does not think Democrats will act soon on the shutdown, and does not think it will be sorted soon. Trump reiterated the call to kill the filibuster and reopen the government immediately.
• The US Supreme Court appeared skeptical of Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff powers, with some justices suggesting he’d overstepped his authority. Yet even if the duties are struck down, the president has other legal options, leaving companies and countries in limbo. BBG
• President Trump has recently expressed reservations to top aides about launching military action to oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, fearing that strikes might not compel the autocrat to step down. WSJ
• U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said on Wednesday that he would order a 10% cut in flights at 40 major U.S. airports, citing air traffic control safety concerns as a government shutdown hit a record 36th day. RTRS
• China has issued dollar bonds at rates equivalent to US Treasury yields, in what bankers on the deal said was the first time Beijing’s borrowing costs has matched Washington’s. the bond offering is the latest example of countries taking advantage of being able to issue international debt cheaply, as their borrowing costs in relation to US Treasuries fall to some of the lowest levels on record. FT
• Japan’s underlying wage growth remained steady in September, keeping the BOJ on track for policy tightening. One of Japan’s largest labor union groups said it plans to push for a 6% pay bump next year. BBG
• The Bank of England held interest rates at 4% in a five-to-four vote that laid the groundwork for a December cut. The pound pared gains of as much as 0.4% against the dollar. Gilts rose across the curve, with the two-year yield down three basis points to 3.76%: BBG
• The Fed finalized new standards for grading large banks and said that the new large bank supervisory standards are substantially similar to changes proposed in July.

Trade/Tariffs

• China bought two cargoes of around 120,000 tons of US wheat for December shipment, according to traders cited by Reuters. It was also reported that the US Grains and Bioproducts Council Chairman said a US sorghum shipment was sent to China last week.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said Japan will consider specific ways for Japan and the US to advance cooperation in the development of rare earth mining in waters around Minamitori Island.
• Chinese Commerce Ministry, on semiconductor flows, says China is committed to stability and security of global chip industry; will approve relevant export license applications of qualified Chinese exporters.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk

APAC stocks were higher as the region took impetus from the rebound on Wall St, where all major indices gained amid dip buying and following stronger-than-expected ADP and ISM Services data releases. ASX 200 eked mild gains amid strength in miners, but with the upside limited as the top-weighted financials sector lagged after Big Four bank NAB reported a decline in full-year profit. Nikkei 225 rebounded from the prior day's selling and briefly reclaimed the 51,000 level before paring some of its gains. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp benefitted from the improving US-China trade ties after China’s Commerce Ministry suspended the unreliable entity list announced in April and adjusted its export control lists, while there were comments from US President Trump who reiterated that Chinese President Xi is a good friend.

Top Asian News

• Japanese PM Takaichi looks to finalise an economic stimulus package to address inflation by late November and pass a supplementary budget to fund it, with some in the government eyeing a cost of over JPY 10tln, according to Nikkei.
• Japan Innovation Party co-leader Fujita said an early BoJ rate hike may give a mixed signal to businesses, while he added it is not a time for BoJ moves that have a big impact and they will not raise taxes to fund an earlier defence budget jump.
• One of Japan's largest labour unions, UA Zensen, is reportedly planning to push for a 6% wage hike for regular workers in next year's talks, according to Bloomberg.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) opened modestly lower and have traded with a negative bias throughout the European morning. Nothing really behind the sentiment today, but with traders mindful of looming US data and the BoE policy decision. European sectors are mixed; Banks take the top spot, joined closely by Retail and then Real Estate. To the downside, Construction & Materials lags, followed by Insurance. In terms of key movers; AstraZeneca (U/C, strong headline metrics), Maersk (-5.2%, strong Q3 metrics but faces "challenging" 2026), Commerzbank (-2.5%, boosts outlook but Net Income not so strong).

Top European News

• ECB's Schnabel says quantitative normalisation is proceeding smoothly, with strong liquidity positions of banks and abundant excess liquidity; on new structural portfolio, says factors suggest tilting the structure towards shorter-dated assets. "policy stance neutrality, the need to maintain policy space and considerations related to financial soundness are important factors that will guide the maturity of assets the ECB will buy under a new structural securities portfolio. These factors suggest tilting the structure towards shorter-dated assets."
• ECB's de Guindos states slight optimism on growth; adds that inflation news is positive. More optimistic on services inflation. Evolution of wages are fully aligned with projections. The level of uncertainty is huge. Comfortable with the current level of rates. Undershooting of inflation will be temporary. No discussion on modifying QT.
• Norges Bank keeps rates unchanged at 4.00%, as expected; Governor Bache says, "The job of overcoming inflation is not complete, and we are in no hurry to lower interest rates".

FX

• DXY is softer following rangebound trade, with a surprise early release of the US Challenger job cuts data prompted a cleaner breach back under 100.00, with the current intraday range between 99.89 - 100.11, and compared to yesterday's 100.06-100.36 range. Challenger October US Job Cuts jump 175.3% to a 7-month high at 153.074k (prev. 54.064k in September), according to Bloomberg. The release led to some upside in T-note futures and downside in the USD. On the tariff front, the US Supreme Court yesterday sharply questioned President Trump’s broad use of emergency powers to impose global tariffs, although this risk event is likely to be a slow burner, touted to end in Q1/Q2 2026, while ING's baseline is that tariffs will stay regardless of the ruling.
• EUR is slightly firmer against the USD, largely amid USD weakness, whilst little action was seen following a variety of comments from ECB's Schnabel and de Guindos, and largely pessimistic Construction PMI. EUR/USD resides in a 1.1490-1.1524 intraday range, with traders also cognizant of the converging 50 DMA (1.1670) and 100 DMA (1.1664).
• USD/JPY faded some of the prior day's advances and gave back the 154.00 status following an acceleration in wages, with USD weakness further weighing on the pair in early European hours. Aside from that, there is little else to mention for the JPY, with the pair comfortably tucked within yesterday's 152.96-154.35 range. Furthermore, one of Japan's largest labour unions, UA Zensen, is reportedly planning to push for a 6% wage hike for regular workers in next year's talks, according to Bloomberg.
• Sterling in focus as the clock ticks down to the Bank of England rate decision, minutes, and MPR are due at 12:00GMT/07:00EST, with the press conference at 12:30GMT/07:30EST. The MPC is expected to keep the Bank Rate at 4.0%, likely via a 6-3 vote, with focus on any signals regarding future easing. Despite softer-than-expected September inflation, elevated Y/Y CPI is expected to keep policymakers on hold, though three members may favour a cut. GBP/USD resides in a current 1.3042-1.3089 range after topping yesterday's peak at 1.3054.
• Diverging as the AUD/NZD cross rises above 1.1500 from a 1.1486 intraday low, with the AUD propped up by the base metals and the NZD hampered by cautious RBNZ commentary. Overnight, RBNZ Governor Hawkesby said he doesn’t think they are out of the worst on global trade tensions, while he added the labour market has deteriorated, which is something they anticipated. AUD/USD resides in a 0.6497-0.6518 range and is still some way off its 100 DMA (0.6539). NZD/USD is contained in a 0.5651-0.5669 range at the time of writing.
• EUR/NOK stopped just shy of its 100 DMA (11.7519) following the policy decision by Norges Bank, which opted to keep rates steady at 4.00% as expected. The Bank largely reiterated the statement from the prior meeting, suggesting that "no information has been received that indicates that the outlook for the Norwegian economy has changed significantly since the September policy meeting".
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0865 vs exp. 7.1222 (Prev. 7.0901)
• Brazilian Central Bank maintained the Selic rate at 15.00%, as expected, with the decision unanimous. BCB evaluated that maintaining the interest rate at the current level for a very prolonged period is enough to ensure convergence of inflation to the target. Furthermore, it said that future monetary policy steps can be adjusted, and it will not hesitate to resume the rate hiking cycle if appropriate.

Fixed Income

• USTs are contained overnight as newsflow at the time was relatively limited and participants awaited a packed docket of Fed speak, texts are expected from Williams (voter) and Paulson (2026). Spent the morning near enough unchanged and just above the 112-10 session low. Thereafter, a bout of support was seen for havens generally around the European cash equity open; potential drivers include the Israeli comments on Egypt. Thereafter, the docket ahead was lightened by an early release of October’s Challenger job cuts. Printed at 153k (prev. 54k), to a seven-month high. This added to the modest strength seen in USTs and took them to a 112-18 high with gains of eight ticks at best. A print that has added a little bit of dovishness back into Fed pricing, though the odds of a 25bps cut in December remain at around 65% after losing the 70% handle yesterday following ADP and ISM Services. Markets see more job market indicators today via the Chicago Fed BLS unemployment forecast and the latest Revelio statistics.
• Bunds initial action was similar to that outlined above in USTs. Bunds spent the first part of the day holding near enough unchanged and just above the 129.03 opening mark. Thereafter, a pickup occurred around the European cash equity open before a 129.18 peak printed alongside Challenger; again, detailed in USTs above. Prior to this, an interesting speech from ECB’s Schnabel, where she said there are factors that are suggestive of tilting the structure of the ECB’s portfolio towards shorter-dated assets, but no move in Bunds at the time. Construction PMIs passed without impact this morning. Ahead, traders look to the referenced US events before remarks from ECB’s Nagel and Chief Economist Lane; particularly regarding the ECB’s portfolio, in light of Schnabel. No move to supply from Spain and France this morning. Overall, the auctions were well received with the long-dated French metric in particular garnering strength, a welcome sign amid the ongoing political turmoil.
• Gilts opened firmer by around 15 ticks and then quickly extended a handful more to a 93.33 high, a move that acknowledged the modest bullish action seen at the time, as outlined above. Price action for Gilts was a little more pronounced than that seen in peers, nothing too significant behind this but potentially a function of the relative underperformance seen in Gilts vs Bunds for much of Wednesday and/or positioning into the BoE. The BoE is expected to maintain the policy rate at 4.00%, though the decision will almost certainly be subject to dissent; expectations are broadly for either 7-2 or 6-3, however a split where Governor Bailey has to cast the deciding vote cannot be ruled out.
• Spain sells EUR 4.503bln vs exp. EUR 4-5bln 3.00% 2033, 1.85% 2035, 3.50% 2041 Bono & EUR 0.534bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.15% 2036 IL Bono.

Crude

• Crude benchmarks have pared back on Wednesday’s losses following comments from Israeli Defense Minister Katz and sellers failing to extend through the lows of the 7-day range. After testing prior support lows, crude benchmarks sold off, reversing APAC gains, and troughed at USD 59.46/bbl and 63.37/bbl. However, this selloff was short-lived and benchmarks bid higher to a peak of 60.51/bbl and 64.34/bbl respectively. Saudi Arabia cut its December Light Crude OSP to Asia, in line with expectations. This confirms that the kingdom is comfortable with Brent prices holding between USD 60-65/bbl. Slight downticks were seen in crude benchmarks but move wasn’t sustained.
• Spot XAU has followed on from Wednesday’s gains as the yellow metal continues to consolidate following its 11% selloff from ATHs. XAU dipped to a trough of USD 3964/oz early in the APAC session but reversed higher and extended through Wednesday’s high at USD 3990/oz as the European session risk sentiment started off weak. Currently, the yellow metal is trading near session highs at USD 4017/oz. A surprising Challenger Layoff release had little impact on spot gold action.
• Base metals are trading mixed, with iron ore continuing to sell off as China steel industry heads into the low season while copper gains following risk-on tone during the APAC session. 3M LME Copper dipped to a low of USD 10.69k/t before driving higher as it followed the CME Copper bid back above USD 5/lb. 3M LME Copper peaked at USD 10.79k/t and remains in a c. USD 40/t band near session highs.
• Saudi Arabia set the December Light Crude OSP to Asia to + USD 1.00/bbl vs Oman/Dubai average (prev. + USD 2.20), to Europe at + USD 1.35/bbl vs ICE Brent (prev. +1.35), and to US at + USD 3.20/bbl vs ASCI (prev. + USD 3.70).

Geopolitics

• "Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz: Declaring war on smuggling operations through drones on our border with Egypt", according to Al Jazeera; "ordered the border area with Egypt to be turned into a closed military zone", via Iran International
• US President Trump warned the Nigerian government that they had better move fast to stop the killing of Christians.
• US President Trump recently expressed reservations to top aides about launching military action to oust Venezuelan President Maduro, fearing that strikes might not compel Maduro to step down, according to sources cited by WSJ.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: 3Q P Nonfarm Productivity, est. 3.35%, prior 3.3%
• 8:30 am: 3Q P Unit Labor Costs, est. 0.85%, prior 1%
• 8:30 am: Nov 1 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225k
• 8:30 am: Oct 25 Continuing Claims, est. 1948k
• 10:00 am: Sep F Wholesale Inventories MoM

Central Bank Speakers

• 11:00 am: Fed’s Williams speaks at Goethe University Frankfurt
• 11:00 am: Fed’s Barr Participates in Moderated Discussion
• 12:00 pm: Fed’s Hammack Speaks at the Economic Club of New York
• 3:30 pm: Fed’s Waller in Panel on Central Banking and Payments
• 4:30 pm: Fed’s Paulson speaks on Consumer Finance Institute
• 5:30 pm: Fed’s Musalem Speaks at a Fireside Chat on Monetary Policy

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The risk-on tone has returned to markets over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+0.37%) recovering from the previous day’s selloff. The main driver was stronger-than-expected data, alongside growing speculation that the government shutdown might come to an end soon. So that helped to boost investor optimism about the near-term outlook, with risk assets doing well across the board. Indeed, US HY spreads (-9bps) tightened for the first time in a week, and Bitcoin (+3.38%) stabilised after its losses in recent days. Moreover, that trend has continued overnight, with several indices in Asia seeing strong gains, including the Nikkei (+1.48%) and the Hang Seng (+1.61%).

That US data was pivotal for the market recovery, as it pushed back against the building narrative about an economic slowdown, particularly after the weaker ISM manufacturing print on Monday. First, we had the ADP’s report of private payrolls, which showed private payrolls were up by +42k in October (vs. +30k expected), which was a clear rebound from the -29k contraction in September. That’s a release that’s taken on more significance than usual, given we’re missing the usual jobs report because of the shutdown. Then shortly after, we had the ISM Services index for October, which rose by more than expected to 52.4 (vs. 50.8 expected). So again, that reassured investors that the US outlook was more resilient than feared, and we even saw the new orders subcomponent rise to a 12-month high of 56.2 (vs. 51.0 expected).

Those prints meant investors dialled back their expectations for Fed rate cuts in the months ahead. Moreover, there was fresh momentum in that direction from the prices paid component of the ISM services, which ticked up to 70.0. That now takes it to levels last seen in late-2022, back when the Fed were rapidly hiking rates to clamp down on inflation. So that added to concerns about tariff-driven inflation, and investors felt it made future cuts less likely. For instance, the likelihood of a rate cut in December fell from 70% to 62% by the close, and if we look further out, the number of cuts priced by December 2026 fell -6.0bps on the day to 77bps. So that meant Treasury yields moved higher across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+5.5bps) rising to 3.63%, whilst the 10yr yield (+7.4bps) moved up to 4.16%.

In the meantime, there were also fresh headlines on the government shutdown, as speculation continued as to whether some sort of deal might be reached. Notably, the Washington Post reported yesterday that around a dozen Senate Democrats were considering voting to end the shutdown, saying that a bipartisan group was working on a deal.

According to the article, it said that Republicans would agree in return to hold a vote on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies. But later in the day, there was a Politico article saying that the Democratic wins in the elections had boosted those arguing they should dig in. So the Polymarket chances have moved around considerably, although they still point to a 50% chance that the shutdown ends by November 15.

On the tariffs, the Supreme Court heard arguments yesterday in the case against Trump’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which were previously ruled invalid by the lower courts. The questioning left a sense of key justices suggesting that the President may have overstepped his authority with this use of emergency powers. For instance, the Polymarket odds that the Supreme Court would rule in favour of the IEEPA tariffs declined from 38% to 25%. However, even if the current broad tariffs are ruled invalid, the details of the ruling and which alternative avenues the administration end up pursuing will be important for the eventual tariff outcome.

This backdrop proved to be a positive one for equities, with the S&P 500 (+0.37%) recovering from its selloff the previous day, though it did give up about half of the day’s gains in the final hour of trading. And while the Magnificent 7 (+0.88%) outperformed, it was a good day all round, as the small-cap Russell 2000 rose +1.54%, and more than 60% of the S&P 500 were higher on the day. Meanwhile in Europe, there was a similarly positive trend, which was reinforced by the final PMIs from across the continent. Indeed, the Euro Area composite PMI was revised up to 52.5 (vs. flash 52.2), leaving the reading at a two-year high. So that helped the STOXX 600 (+0.23%) to advance, alongside gains for the FTSE 100 (+0.64%) and the DAX (+0.42%). But the risk-on move didn’t extend to commodities, as Brent crude (-1.43%) fell to a two-week low of $63.52/bbl as the focus again shifted to emergent excess oil supply , whilst gold (+1.21%) recovered most of Tuesday’s losses.

Overnight in Asia, the equity rally has continued, with the major indices advancing across the region. That’s been clear across the board, with gains for the Nikkei (+1.48%), the Hang Seng (+1.61%), the CSI 300 (+1.23%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.86%), and the KOSPI (+1.44%). However, US and European equity futures are broadly steady this morning, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.02%) and the DAX (+0.02%) currently little changed.

Looking forward, a key focus today will be on the Bank of England’s latest policy decision, which is being announced at 12:00 London time. The consensus and market pricing is expecting rates to stay on hold at 4%, but at time of writing markets are pricing in a 26% probability of a 25bp cut, so there’s a bit of uncertainty in market pricing. In his preview, our UK economist also expects a hold, but his call is now finely balanced, and he thinks the case for a 25bp rate cut has strengthened materially after a dovish round of data. Ahead of that, sovereign bond yields moved higher across Europe, in line with the moves for US Treasuries. Gilts saw the biggest increase, with 10yr yields up +3.8bps on the day, but there were also increases for yields on 10yr bunds (+1.9bps), OATs (+1.9bps) and BTPs (+2.2bps).

To the day ahead now, and one of the main highlights will be the Bank of England’s latest policy decision. There’s also plenty of speakers, including ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Kocher, Schnabel, Villeroy, Nagel and Lane, along with the Fed’s Williams, Barr, Hammack, Waller and Musalem. On the data side, we’ll get German industrial production and Euro Area retail sales for September.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 08:33

Pirates Attack Tanker Off Somalia Coast 

Maritime journal Lloyd's List reported early Thursday that the Malta-flagged tanker Hellas Aphrodite was boarded by suspected pirates off the Somali coast. This maritime incident comes just days after another attempted hijacking of a commercial vessel in the region. 

Pirates have boarded Malta-flagged Hellas Aphrodite, a product tanker, off the Somali coast just days after a near miss in the same region pic.twitter.com/PEeuTbIrUO

— Lloyd's List (@LloydsList) November 6, 2025

UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) confirmed a small vessel "fired small arms and RPGs" and "unauthorised personnel" boarded the tanker hauling gasoline about 560 nautical miles off the southeast of Eyl, Somalia. 

Lloyd's List noted, "An unsuccessful attempt to board a Stolt-Nielsen tanker off Somalia on Monday is unlikely to be an isolated incident with growing evidence of a resurgent piracy threat building with links to al-Shabaab and the Houthis."

Lloyd's List reported that an unsuccessful attempt to board a Stolt-Nielsen tanker off Somalia on Monday is unlikely to be an isolated incident with growing evidence of a resurgent piracy threat building with links to al-Shabaab and the Houthis https://t.co/aFFLRZqyyn

— Lloyd's List (@LloydsList) November 6, 2025

Greek news outlet Enikos reported that Latsco Marine Management, which operates the Hellas Aphrodite, confirmed all 24 crew members are safe and accounted for. The situation remains ongoing.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 08:25

Judge Orders Prosecutors To Turn Over Evidence Against James Comey

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge on Nov. 5 ordered prosecutors from the Department of Justice (DOJ) to hand over evidence in its case against former FBI Director James Comey.

Magistrate Judge William Fitzpatrick gave the DOJ until the end of Thursday to provide Comey’s attorneys with grand jury materials, along with other evidence related to the case. Comey’s attorneys told the court that they had no access to relevant evidence that had been collected years ago as part of an FBI probe into media leaks.

The DOJ alleges that Comey lied to Congress in 2020 during a hearing in which he said he had not “authorized someone else at the FBI to be an anonymous source in news reports.”

Comey has pleaded not guilty and filed a motion to dismiss his case as “selective and vindictive” prosecution. He argues that the case was brought in retaliation for his role in the Crossfire Hurricane investigation, in which President Donald Trump was falsely accused of colluding with Russia to steal the 2016 election.

His attorneys argued in a court filing that the Trump administration declined to prosecute other individuals who allegedly lied to Congress, saying it was because they were his political allies.

Judge Fitzpatrick, during Wednesday’s hearing, questioned whether the prosecution may have acted too hastily to indict Comey.

“The procedural posture of this case is highly unusual,” he said.

The judge asked the DOJ to provide Comey’s defense team with evidence seized from his former attorney, Daniel Richman, in 2019 and 2020.

The DOJ alleges that Comey repeatedly leaked information to the media through Richman for years, in contradiction of his statement to Congress that he never authorized any leaks.

Comey’s attorneys say his statement to Congress was only in regard to a specific question about authorizing leaks through former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe.

In addition to materials from the Richman investigation, the judge has ordered prosecutors to produce grand jury transcripts.

Comey’s is one of several high-profile cases recently filed against Trump’s former political opponents.

New York Attorney General Letitia James, who ran for office on a promise to investigate Trump, was indicted in October on charges of mortgage fraud. James sued Trump in 2022, accusing him and his business associates of overvaluing property in order to secure more favorable business loan rates.

New York Supreme Court Manhattan Judge Arthur Engoron ruled against Trump in 2024, fining him $364 million, an amount with interest that rose to more than $500 million. The fine was vacated by a New York appeals court in August.

The FBI also raided the home of former national security adviser John Bolton in Bethesda, Maryland, on Aug. 22.

Bolton, who frequently criticized the president, was indicted in October on charges of leaking classified documents.

The administration has faced criticism over the indictments of Comey and James, since U.S. Attorney Erik Siebert left his position after refusing to bring charges against either of them.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 08:25

The post Will SCOTUS Nix the Trump Tariffs and Save the Republicans in 2026? appeared first on CEPR.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

October sales will be mostly for contracts signed in August and September, and mortgage rates averaged 6.59% in August and 6.35% in September (lower than for closed sales in September).

In October, sales in these early reporting markets were down 2.8% YoY. Last month, in September, these same markets were up 7.4% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in October 2025 (22) as in October 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

Deeply-Divided Bank Of England Leaves Rates Unchanged, Warns Of "AI Bubble"

The Bank of England kept its key interest rate at 4.0% this morning, opting against a cut (as the market expected) ahead of the UK government's annual budget this month (which is expected to feature tax hikes).

"We still think rates are on a gradual path downwards, but we need to be sure that inflation is on track to return to our two-percent target before we cut them again," BoE governor Andrew Bailey said in a statement following the widely-expected decision.

The decision was very tight as policymakers including Bailey voted 5-4 to maintain the rate.

Four members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) called for a cut to 3.75 percent.

The BoE last cut its key rate in August amid concerns over the impact of US tariffs on the UK economy.

Importantly, the minutes of the meeting noted that “overall the risks [to the inflation outlook] are now more balanced” but that more evidence is needed. The last reference essentially conditions the next interest cut to further progress in the data.

As regards the forward guidance, the MPC left the overall message broadly unchanged but did change the wording by removing “careful” and now saying that “[i]f progress on disinflation continues, Bank Rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path.”

Interestingly, while the BoE's guidance is dovish, its forecasts continue to have an inflation overshoot for the whole of next year and into 2027 - CPI is seen at 2.5% in Q4 2026 and 2.0% in Q4 2027 2.0%, based on market rates.

The BoE's December meeting is definitely in play based on Governor Bailey's comment:

"The downside scenario seems more likely. It could help explain the elevated saving rate, and Agents’ intelligence on uncertainty. Rather than cutting Bank Rate now, I would prefer to wait and see if the durability in disinflation is confirmed in upcoming economic developments this year. Current market pricing is close to the path suggested by a forward-looking Taylor rule, which is a fair description of my position at present".

OIS pricing for the December meeting has moved to around 16.5bp, from around 11bp priced before the decision (or a 66% chance of a cut.

Cable strengthened on the 'hold'...

Finallym, during his press conference, Bailey also weighed in on the frothy valuations in stock markets, led by US tech stocks and the AI megatrend, saying that “we could have an AI bubble” and that is being watched closely for any implications on financial stability.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 08:15

Silicon Valley's Growing Anti-Woke, Pro-Abundance Rebellion

Authored by Edward Ring via American Greatness,

To paraphrase and utterly subvert one of Karl Marx’s best-known quotes, a “spectre” is haunting Silicon Valley—the spectre of authentic abundance. All the powers of woke California have entered into an unholy alliance to exorcise this spectre: public sector unions, the environmentalist lobby, the crony capitalists, Antifa radicals, and Reddit trolls.

They’re going to lose. For all the power the state’s ruling unholy alliance still wields with its “No Kings” populism, its partisan Prop. 50 redistricting, and its absolute grip on state and local governance, it is now in conflict with a far greater historical and cultural momentum. Innate to California and irrepressible, the forces of innovation and creativity that have defined the state for nearly two hundred years are asserting themselves in new domains. Authentic abundance is on the way, and nothing can stop it.

It’s about time. For decades, with an intensity that exploded during the first Trump presidency and crested during the Biden administration, liberals and progressives and woke ideologues have exercised sway over the valley. But through it all, their core message was always anathema to the entrepreneurial spirit that defined the culture. Because the core message of woke is NO. This core message is psychological—you will be sensitive, you will respect the paradigm of oppression—but it is also physical: energy rationing, water rationing, i.e., embrace scarcity.

For a while, the unholy alliance was indulged. As long as Silicon Valley remained a destination where a brilliant engineer could show up from anywhere on earth with an idea that could change the world, the slow infiltration of woke scolds into their growing corporations was tolerable. The dazzling and sudden wealth, the amazing breakthroughs, the sheer excitement of being in the technology epicenter of the world—these perks overshadowed the growing encroachment. But they went too far.

The anti-woke rebellion, now well underway, was bound to happen. The foundation of Silicon Valley culture is the power of lone individuals with big ideas and big brains, individuals with tunnel vision and uncontainable drive. That’s what it takes to change the world, and for every successful company founder, the valley was littered with the remains of fallen competitors. It was, and is, one of the most ruthlessly competitive expressions of pure capitalism the world has ever seen. And it delivered, decade after decade.

The cliches that help define Silicon Valley are accurate ways to describe how the people working there think and what they have accomplished. Better, faster, cheaper. Moore’s Law (the principle that the speed and capability of computers can be expected to double every two years). Creative destruction. The “unicorn” chase (building a company to a $1 billion valuation). Hustle culture. Tech bros. Synergy.

On the surface, these phrases seem shallow. Except they are a way of life. And the results speak for themselves. The transistor. The chip. The mainframe, the mini, the workstation, the PC, the laptop, the internet, the iPhone, the smartphone, and AI. In less than one lifetime, we traversed that landscape. The world will never be the same.

But suddenly, a glitch has appeared in the matrix. If every high-tech product has become better, faster, and cheaper, why is everything else so expensive? Why can’t we produce cheap energy, deliver abundant and affordable water, and produce homes that people with average incomes can afford and want to live in? Why is it that a flat-screen television is dirt cheap, while owning a modest home is now completely out of reach for almost every young married couple in America?

It’s about time the titans of Silicon Valley turned their attention to these challenges. Steps along the way have been eye-openers. A few years ago, a group of Silicon Valley investors came together to acquire land and build new homes—an entirely new community—on huge tracts of underutilized land north of San Francisco. What could possibly go wrong? The proposal would have increased the housing supply in a region enduring a desperate shortage of new homes. It was situated near a major freeway corridor, within commuting range of San Francisco. They were going to do everything right, with sustainably sourced water and electricity, a generous percentage of low-income housing, energy-efficient smart buildings, and provisions for mass transit. Wouldn’t everyone want this to happen? It would be a slam dunk!

And then reality intervened. Every public entity remotely within the footprint of the planned community had demands, mostly impossible to meet, delivered by politicians whose campaign benefactors were the perennially powerful public sector unions. Every landowner who didn’t want to see their rural lifestyle disrupted gained disproportionate support from environmentalist litigators, brilliantly exploiting every one of California’s nearly infinite array of environmental laws and regulations.

So much for abundant housing, because the only thing the unholy alliance produces in abundance is new home-killing regulations and litigation. It afflicts aspiring builders everywhere in California. Pay. Pay more. Wait. Wait some more. Lose. Try again, and lose again. Give up. Go to Texas, where they still want homebuilders.

What about abundant energy? This, too, is unavailable, despite the billions that Silicon Valley investors are prepared to spend on data centers to process AI queries to, you know, cure disease, guarantee national security, save the world, and make sure any random inquirer can know which episode of Miami Vice included the song “Red Rain.” But instead of converting these deliverables into reality, investors must contend with a state determined to achieve “net zero” by 2045, a state that wants to electrify the entire economy and yet is mired in regulations that won’t even fast-track approval of energy solutions that are “carbon-free.”

As for water, options are limited, to put it mildly. Desalination? Gotta go through the Coastal Commission, so… forget it. Surface reservoirs? The long-promised Sites Reservoir, allegedly a major reservoir project that is close to actually getting built, remains mired in procedural delays and litigation even as its lead proponents continue to assiduously attend conferences to smile, shake hands, and prosper off the process instead of the result. What about wastewater recycling? Sure, but you’ll still spend 10-20 years just getting approval to begin construction.

It almost should go without saying that the woke culture that scuttled James Damore’s career at Google was not going to last. Nor was the whole infrastructure of parasitic human resources departments that large tech corporations were forced to create in order to elevate their percentage of diversity hires to acceptable regulatory norms. The founders of these mega companies did everything they were told to do by the woke. Until they didn’t.

The last straw wasn’t the unholy alliance demanding adherence to the oppressor vs. oppressed paradigm, enforced by parasitic HR departments. That annoyance just put the last straw into context and ensured that once it came, a more comprehensive realignment would ensue. But the last straw, which violated every core principle that ever animated a genuine entrepreneur, was when they realized how California’s ruling class had basically outlawed production of more energy, water, housing, and every other physical essential that requires so much as a scratch in the earth.

Not lost on Silicon Valley’s awakened entrepreneurs was that, at the same time as the unholy alliance is making abundance more impossible than ever to achieve, they’ve adopted “abundance” as a new weapon in their rhetorical arsenal. It isn’t working. The insincerity is brazen, and the backlash is undiminished.

Now, the notion not of “abundance” as a campaign buzzword, but as authentic, actual abundance, stalks the conference rooms and Zoom calls and animates discussions in the valley with a fervor that was previously restricted to code and chip design. We will have affordable homes. We will have abundant energy. We are not going to accept inadequate supplies of water. We have found a new frontier to conquer, and we will not lose.

A wonderful driver of Silicon Valley’s rising abundance culture and the evolving political philosophy that constitutes its true ideological foundation can be found in the articulate ravings of a relatively new publication, Pirate Wires. The insouciance of this publication had print magazine predecessors in the previous generation. Mondo 2000. Upside. Wired. The Red Herring. But those first translations of Silicon Valley energy into Silicon Valley culture were ahead of their time and mostly apolitical. It took politically contrived scarcity hitting home, combined with woke overreach, for voices to emerge that not only had an edge but also moved way beyond chips and code.

In a rebuttal to the ersatz, limited vision of abundance promoted by liberals Klein and Johnson in their recent bestseller “Abundance,” Pirate Wires editor Mike Solana wrote an essay, “The Abundance Delusion.” Published by The Atlantic last summer, it is a masterpiece. Solana has given us a Jetsonesque vision of the future. It is a beautiful, utterly uninhibited, uncompromising paeon to a Tomorrowland that Silicon Valley has both the wealth and the brainpower to deliver, and the sooner, the better. Here is my favorite paragraph from this work of art:

“I want a bullet train that rips across the country from San Francisco to New York in half a day. I want to take that ride in a first-class cabin, with a little bar car somewhere onboard where I can talk shit with strangers over martinis as we travel through the Rockies. Fuck it, let’s throw in a robot bartender. I want genetically modified hydroponic gardens. I want special economic zones for manufacturing, for rare-earth-metals mining and processing, for rocketry and electric vehicles, and every other high-tech project you can think of, a reality in which Americans are liberated from local regulations that kneecap our industrial output—a reality in which our capacity is limited only by our imagination. I want gene drives, which means the eradication of invasive Burmese pythons in the Florida wetlands, the screwworm, and pretty much all mosquitoes. I want weather modification. I want geoengineering. I want to terraform Mars into a habitable world. I want a giant “Justice” statue, to complement the East Coast’s “Liberty,” on Alcatraz Island. I want this statue to depict an objectively hot person. Finally, the Moon should be a state, and no I won’t be taking any further questions.”

Having been a big fan of Pirate Wires for over a year, I can say with reasonable confidence that while these guys are clearly having a roaring good time, they are not playing. Something epic is happening in Silicon Valley today. It is a seismic shift, and it is long overdue. We are on the cusp of an urban renaissance that will be enabled by technology; it is going to be insanely excellent, and this new, even more expansive iteration of Silicon Valley is going to catalyze its progress.

This vision of the future is as optimistic and realistic as it is contagious and inspiring. We will expand our cities underground to accommodate infrastructure and transportation, and communication conduits, using new, far more cost-effective tunneling equipment such as that pioneered by the Boring Company. We will build our cities further upwards to accommodate drone ports and indoor farms, and we will employ creative parasitic architecture to enhance and enlarge legacy structures. If we want to, we will increase the per capita usable surface area in urban centers, both indoors and outdoors, even as we maintain or even increase the population density per square mile.

As dreams become reality, the next generation of smart buildings will not only be nearly self-sufficient in water and energy consumption through recycling, but they will also be much easier to maintain. Buildings will have photovoltaic skin, including the windows, battery storage using safe and inexpensive technologies, and spacious areas, including ample areas for plants and natural light, and often utilize mass timber as a structural material.

The technology-driven renaissance we are only now fully entering will change the rules, making projects profitable that previously could not possibly attract investment. Recycling practices that are economically impossible today, along with construction projects that so far have been economically infeasible, will become cost-effective propositions when robots begin to coordinate and manage increasingly automated processes to aid in recycling, construction, hazardous waste management, and critical maintenance. Highly skilled, labor-intensive jobs will be done by machines, dramatically lowering costs.

We will have flying cars after all. We will have robots and androids and colonies on Mars. And it will be unleashed by competitive capitalism as practiced by a new generation of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs who not only rejected but also completely eradicated the woke mind virus and vanquished the special interests who profited from scarcity.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 08:05

Snap Shares Soar On $400 Million Perplexity Deal To Embed AI-Powered Search

The AI application wave is being driven by the rapid integration of these intelligent systems into products people already use, from messaging and search to productivity, entertainment, commerce, and even transportation. The latest example: Snap's $400 million partnership with Perplexity to integrate its AI-powered answer engine directly into Snapchat, signaling how conversational AI is becoming a core layer directly within some apps. 

This new collaboration gives Perplexity access to nearly 1 billion monthly active users, mainly Gen Z and millennial audiences. Perplexity plans to compensate Snap through a mix of cash and equity, with revenue recognition starting in 2026. 

Millions of people connect and discover the world through Snapchat. By bringing Perplexity to Snapchat, we're able to serve that curiosity directly where it occurs," Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas wrote in a statement.

Snap CEO Evan Spiegel noted, "Our goal is to make AI more personal, social, and fun – woven into the fabric of your friendships, Snaps, and conversations," adding, "This partnership reflects our shared vision for the power of AI to enhance discovery and connection on Snapchat, and we look forward to collaborating with more innovative partners in the future." 

Snap-Perplexity partnership came alongside Snap's third-quarter earnings: revenue rose 5% year-on-year to $1.51 billion (slightly above Bloomberg Consensus estimates), and daily active users climbed 8% to 477 million. For Q4, Snap guided sales of $1.68 billion to $1.71 billion, mostly in line with analysts' expectations.

In markets, the partnership sent Snap shares up more than 20% to around $8.77 each. Shares are hovering at pre-Covid levels. 

More importantly, the consumer layer of AI integration is gaining momentum, with yesterday's news that Apple's Siri will soon be powered by Google's AI, alongside recent announcements about Spotify's AI features and other apps rapidly embedding models. Meanwhile, Tesla vehicles can now operate in Full Self-Driving mode with the Grok chatbot integrated directly into the system. We expect this flood of app-layer AI innovation to expand even further in 2026.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 07:45

Germany Submits To Islam: Christmas Market In Overath Cancelled

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

In the German town of Overath (North Rhine-Westphalia), this year’s Christmas market has been cancelled. The cost of protecting visitors from potential terrorist attacks exceeds the organizer’s budget. The city refuses to cover the expenses. A capitulation to Islamism.

It wasn’t long ago that Christmas markets were among the social highlights of the year. Whether in small towns or major cities – they were meeting points for friends and family, for mulled wine, sausages, and quiet conversations wrapped in winter’s cold and early darkness.

Places of Togetherness 

There was this special peaceful coziness. A place where community was celebrated – joyful, calm, and without fear. A tradition that brought people closer together.

What would urban life be without safe and regular gatherings in public spaces? A wasteland. A dystopia.

These moments – when people could pause, breathe, and let the soul drift for a moment – have become scarce in Germany’s public life. Since 2015, since Angela Merkel’s open-border decision, Europe has entered its own Michel Houellebecq moment.

The mass influx of young men from predominantly Islamic countries has deeply shattered the population’s sense of security.

The Loss of Carefreeness 

And in this increasingly tense atmosphere, just when Chancellor Friedrich Merz touched a sore point by speaking about the changing face of cities, a manufactured storm of outrage erupted against him.

Even after deadly Islamist attacks – Berlin’s Breitscheidplatz in 2016 with 12 victims, the Solingen festival stabbing in 2023 with three dead, or the bombing plot at the Magdeburg Christmas market last year – Germany still refuses to confront militant Islam pressing into Europe.

The aggressive rejection of any criticism within Islamic circles points to the core problem: Islam never passed through the crucible of Enlightenment like Christianity did. Christianity’s claws were cut – and what remained was woven into the psychological fabric of modernity.

The list of Islamist attacks in Germany and Europe is long and growing month by month. And it proves how intimidation of secular Western society has become successful – when even traditional festivals like Christmas markets are only possible behind heavy police presence and concrete barriers to stop jihadist vehicle attacks.

The feeling of carefree celebration is gone.

Another Christmas Market Falls 

The cancellation of this year’s Christmas market in Overath near Cologne fits perfectly into this picture. High security costs to protect visitors from terrorism make it impossible to open. The city refused to cover the organizer’s expenses.
The same now in Dresden – several smaller private Christmas markets cancelled because security costs exploded.

For one and a half years, the market association tried to negotiate with city officials, said Andreas Korschmann, head of the town marketing group.

Wouldn’t this be precisely the moment for the city to step up? Aren’t politicians always preaching about civic engagement and vibrant local life?

But there is no sign of courage, no standing up for a free, tolerant society. Just hollow political phrases for their own feel-good bubble.

In Overath, Islamists have managed – without any real resistance – to push aside a piece of tradition and communal life.

Outside knife-free zones and heavily policed city centers, a chilling silence spreads.

Winter Markets as Fig Leaf 

The pitiful renaming of Christmas markets into “Winter Markets” was already a bow to Islam. A needless kowtow to an increasingly irritable, alienated homegrown left-wing milieu.

Germany is trapped in an identity and cultural crisis.

It’s impossible to ignore: large parts of politics and society have thrown in the towel, surrendering to Islamist pressure and the obvious threat.

A real solution would begin at the border – with a completely new regime controlling who enters the country. But the political Left and its media complex successfully taboo such measures as nationalist extremism.

The policy of open borders – a one-way membrane into the welfare state – has inflicted deep wounds on German society over the last decade. This is not just a vague feeling of insecurity; it is statistically documented in black and white.

With endless migration waves and the lack of cultural immune defense, German traditions and public life are fading into a deafening silence.

Michel Houellebecq’s grim vision of Europe bowing before militant Islam is, year after year, turning into a bleak certainty.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 07:20

Diageo Lowers Outlook On Dismal Drinking Demand As Shares Hit Decade Low 

British spirits giant Diageo Plc, one of the world's largest drink makers, tumbled to a 10-year low on Thursday after lowered guidance overshadowed better-than-expected first-quarter sales. Wall Street analysts noted mounting frustration over the lack of detail regarding the company's search for a new chief executive.

The maker of Don Julio, Johnnie Walker, Casamigos, Smirnoff, and many other popular bar beverages now expect organic net sales to be flat to slightly lower, compared to prior guidance for growth. This dismal outlook overshadowed stronger-than-expected first-quarter sales. 

Diageo shares in London fell 6% to a 10-year low, down 58% since peaking around 4,000 pounds in 4Q21.

Interim CEO Nik Jhangiani acknowledged a dismal outlook but reaffirmed that Diageo's $625 million cost-savings plan remains on track. Also weighing on sentiment is the lack of color over CEO succession after Debra Crew's sudden July exit. 

"We are not satisfied with our current performance and are focused on what we can manage and control," Jhangiani said in the statement.

Wall Street analyst reactions 

• Jefferies (Buy): Warned that the lack of management succession news could weigh on shares; said cash guidance is unchanged, but EBIT and sales were revised down, with Q1 ahead of expectations.

• RBC (Sector Perform): Highlighted that Q1 results beat expectations but full-year guidance was reduced due to weaker North American and Chinese demand; also noted no CEO update.

• Citi (Buy): Acknowledged Q1 beat but flagged that FY26 guidance downgrades and a likely weaker Q2 outlook could pressure the stock; nonetheless, sees limited downside as FY26 EPS consensus is unlikely to fall materially.

More broadly, U.S. spirits faced another transition year as demand continues to slide, mirroring a similar decline in China. Younger U.S. consumers have been abandoning alcohol in favor of healthier lifestyle trends, further pressuring overall consumption.

At the start of this year, we cited a Goldman note that warned clients, "There is no sign of a bottom, with risks still skewed to the downside," for Diageo shares. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 06:55

My morning train WFH reads:

• The Old Order Is Dead. Do Not Resuscitate. Few things are more disconcerting than feeling the ground shift beneath you, as anyone who has experienced a serious earthquake knows. This is what we are living through. A way of ordering economic life — neoliberalism — that emerged in the 1980s is weakening rapidly. (New York Times)

• AI is probably not a bubble: AI companies have revenue, demand, and paths to immense value. (The Power Law) see also AI Could Be the Railroad of the 21st Century. Brace Yourself. In the 1800s, the railroads took over the economy, changed the way we work, and reshaped American politics. Sound familiar? (Derek Thompson)

• Will Private Equity’s ‘Window of Opportunity’ Last? PE firms have cleared their books of some long-held assets now that buyers and sellers have both gotten more realistic about prices. (Institutional Investor)

• Institutional Investors Begin to Embrace ETFs: Once used for cash or transition management, exchange-traded funds are taking a bigger role in institutional portfolios. (Chief Investment Officer)

• New York’s Golden Handcuffs: Why the City Has a Special Hold on the Rich: Don’t bet on a millionaire exodus now that Mamdani won the mayorship. (Businessweek)

• 102 Lessons from the 102 Books I Read This Year. Here are the most interesting things I learned this year while reading 102 books. (Scott H Young)

• A Beloved Clothing Store Closed. A Customer Bought All 4,500 Items. Everything in the shop appeared to have been abandoned. A devoted customer took it all home and started selling the items herself. (New York Times) see also How a Handyman’s Wife Helped an Hermès Heir Discover He’d Lost $15 Billion: Nicolas Puech says his wealth manager isolated him from friends and family and siphoned away a massive fortune. Then came the clue that began to reveal the deception. (Wall Street Journal)

• Five takeaways as Democrats sweep elections in New Jersey,  Virginia, and California: The party won the governor’s race in both states and a state attorney general’s contest that was up in the air, as voters delivered a rebuke of President Donald Trump. (Washington Post)

• Astounding stream of stars caught escaping from nearby galaxy: Stellar streams are faint trails of stars that appear to “stream” out of galaxies. A new one, escaping galaxy M61, may point to many others. (Big Think)

• Bob Dylan’s Superpower is That He Doesn’t Get Embarrassed: On the Icon and the Enigma. (Literary Hub)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Brandon Zick, CIO of at Ceres Partners, where he is responsible for all investments, including Ceres Partners flagship farmland fund and Ceres Food & Agriculture private equity strategies. He serves on the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Advisory Council and Small Business, Agriculture & Labor sub-council. Ceres was just purchased by Wisdom Tree Investing.

 

If Trump’s Tariffs Are Ruled Illegal, Businesses Expect Refund Chaos

Source: Bloomberg

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

What's The Real Reason Why The Economist Wants Europe To Spend $400 Billion More On Ukraine?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Federalizing the EU, not the political fantasy of defeating Russia, is the real goal, which requires another four years of proxy warfare and at least another $400 billion to complete.

The Economist argued that the EU and the UK should meet Ukraine’s estimated $390 billion financing needs over the next four years.

In their words, “Another half-decade of [Russia’s supposedly worsening economic-financial situation] would probably trigger an economic and banking crisis in Russia”, while “Any long-term financing solution for Ukraine would help Europe build the financial and industrial muscle it needs to defend itself.”

This would only cost 0.4% of GDP per NATO member (excluding the US).

They also fearmongered that “The alternative would be for Ukraine to lose the war and become an embittered, semi-failed state whose army and defence industries could by exploited by Mr Putin as part of a new, reinvigorated Russian threat.” While it’s unlikely that Ukraine would ever team up with Russia to threaten any NATO state, Ukraine might blame Poland for its loss, after which Ukraine might back a terrorist-separatist campaign in Poland waged by its ultra-nationalist diaspora as warned about here.

Regardless of whatever one might think about the aforesaid scenario, the point is that The Economist is employing a typical carrot-and-stick approach in a bid to persuade its elite European audience that it’s less costly for them to foot Ukraine’s estimated $390 billion bill across the next four years than not to. The immediate context concerns the US’ intensified proxy war of attrition against Russia as part of Trump’s new three-phased strategy that’s meant to bankrupt the Kremlin and then stir unrest at home.

To be clear, citing this strategy doesn’t imply endorsement, it’s just meant to show why The Economist thinks that its audience might now be receptive to its appeal. About that, it’ll be a hard sell to convince folks that they need to subsidize Ukraine to such an extent over the next nearly half-decade, which could entail more taxes and social spending cuts. After all, the $100-110 billion spent this year (“the highest sum yet”) didn’t push Russia back, so the same amount over the next four likely won’t either.

Russia’s war chest is also big enough to continue funding the conflict during this time, so The Economist’s proposal would merely retain the status quo instead of alter it in the West’s favor. The dynamics might even shift further in Russia’s favor, The Economist candidly warned to its credit, “if Russia can tap China for funds”. In that scenario, the EU would likely be compelled to “tap” its own population for an equivalent sum to at least retain the status quo, thus worsening their burden with no clear end in sight.

As The Economist wrote: “for the EU to issue bonds collectively would create a bigger pool of common debt, deepening Europe’s single capital market and boosting the role of the euro as a reserve currency. A multi-year horizon for weapons procurement would help Europe sequence the build-up of its defence industry.” This aligns with July 2024’s assessment that “The EU’s Planned Transformation Into A Military Union Is A Federalist Power Play”. Federalizing the EU, not defeating Russia, is therefore the real goal.

This insight enables one to understand why EU elites – especially in EU-leader Germany – complied with the US’ anti-Russian sanctions at their own economic expense. In exchange for neutralizing the euro’s potential to rival the dollar, EU elites were allowed to accelerate the bloc’s federalization to entrench their power, which the US approved after no longer viewing the now-subordinated EU as a latent threat. Another four years of proxy warfare and at least ~$400 billion are now required to complete this process.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 06:30

US Sanctions North Korean Bankers, Institutions Over Money Laundering

The United States on Nov. 4 imposed sanctions on individuals and entities accused of assisting North Korea in laundering money generated from cyberespionage and illicit activities.

The Treasury said the measures aim to cut off financial resources that support Pyongyang’s nuclear programs because the communist regime in Pyongyang relies on such illicit activities to fund its ballistic missile and weapons of mass destruction programs.

More than $3 billion—mostly in cryptocurrency—has been siphoned off by North Korean-affiliated cybercriminals through advanced malware and social engineering over the past three years, according to the Treasury’s estimates. The department described the scale of financial theft by Pyongyang as unparalleled by any other nation.

“North Korean state-sponsored hackers steal and launder money to fund the regime’s nuclear weapons program,” said John Hurley, the Treasury’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence.

“By generating revenue for Pyongyang’s weapons development, these actors directly threaten U.S. and global security.”

As The Epoch Times' Dorothy Li reports, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed penalties on two individuals named Jang Kuk Chol and Ho Jong Son, who are accused of helping manage $5.3 million in cryptocurrency and other funds on behalf of a financial institution previously sanctioned by the Treasury, First Credit Bank.

Some of the money can be traced back to a North Korean ransomware actor that previously targeted American victims and managed revenue from North Korean IT workers, the Treasury said.

The department also sanctioned Korea Mangyongdae Computer Technology Company and its president, U Yong Su.

The North Korea-based tech company allegedly used Chinese nationals as “banking proxies” to obscure the origin of funds generated by the North Korean IT workers’ illicit revenue generation schemes, it said.

Pyongyang employs banking representatives, financial institutions, and shell companies located in places such as Beijing and Moscow to launder funds generated through illicit financial activities, including IT worker fraud, digital asset theft, and sanctions evasion, according to the U.S. government.

Among those targeted is Ryujong Credit Bank, a North Korea-based financial institution accused of providing “financial assistance in sanctions avoidance activities between China and North Korea.”

“These activities have included the remittance of North Korea’s foreign currency earnings, money laundering, and financial transactions for overseas North Korean workers,” the department said.

In addition, four representatives of North Korean financial institutions based in China and Russia were also added to the sanctions list. Included is Ho Yong Chol, who allegedly facilitated the transfer of more than $2.5 million in U.S. dollars and Chinese yuan on behalf of U.S.-designated Korea Daesong Bank, while managing transactions exceeding $85 million for another North Korean state-affiliated entity.

The sanction came weeks after the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team, an 11-nation group led by the United States, released the latest assessment of North Korea’s cyber operations.

North Korea’s cyber force is “a full-spectrum, national program operating at a sophistication approaching the cyber programs of China and Russia,” the report reads.

In late June, the U.S. Justice Department announced criminal charges against individuals allegedly involved in Pyongyang’s scheme to fund its nuclear weapon programs by helping North Korean IT workers get jobs at more than 100 American companies, including Fortune 500 groups.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 05:45

The Ban On Ricky Gervais' Billboard Saying "Welcome To London, Don't Forget Your Stab Vest" Shows We Are No Longer Free

Authored by Lee Taylor via DailySceptic.org,

Last week, Britain’s comedy treasure, Ricky Gervais, took to social media to rant about how his proposed billboards for Dutch Barn Vodka had been rejected.

Each banner featured a dark but hilarious slogan that would have inevitably won the applause of Britain’s disillusioned masses.

Its rejected lines include:

• “Dutch Barn, drugs this good are usually illegal.”

• “Dutch Barn, your tube driver’s favourite drink in the morning.”

• “Dutch Barn, one day you’ll be underground for good.”

Ironically, the slogan to cause the most amusement of all among social media followers was the following:

• “Welcome to London, don’t forget your stab vest.”

Brits particularly appreciated this version as it bravely stood as a dark, tongue-in-cheek nod to Britain’s knife-crime epidemic.

But to the rule makers it was just another offensive idea that was banned due to being too ‘inappropriate’. 

Merely a day after Gervais delivered his rant, reality took a terrifying turn. On a Doncaster-to-London train, a man went on a blood-fuelled rage, stabbing 10 innocent people. Real life quickly turned darker than the joke, and not even the most intuitive writers could have scripted it. 

Gervais, who has made a career out of saying what others daren’t, simply held up a mirror. The reaction proved his point: in Britain today you can be stabbed on your commute, but you can’t harmlessly address it on a poster. And, if you have to know a single fact about the British psyche, it is that we cope by mocking life’s miseries – that’s the British spirit for you.

Transport for London was quick to deny the censorship, insisting the campaign was never formally rejected. Who knows, maybe it was all a publicity stunt – but that only underscores the point. In today’s climate, Gervais’s kind of humour wouldn’t stand a chance of official approval.

Advertising used to be a marketplace of ideas, brash, creative, sometimes tasteless, but free. Now it’s a managed space policed by people who think their job is to protect us from ourselves. The regulators pore over copy like priests parsing scripture, deciding what the public may or may not see. ‘Misleading’, ‘offensive’, ‘harmful’. The list of forbidden words grows weekly.

But this isn’t just about prudishness or brand safety. It’s about ideology. The modern advertising world has become a proxy for the wider culture war: a class of bureaucrats and creative-industry lifers enforcing political orthodoxy under the guise of ‘standards’. They’re terrified of a complaint on X and paralysed by the idea that someone, somewhere, might take offence.

On the Underground, censorship is practically civic policy. The same network that hosts endless government propaganda about ‘climate action’ and ‘diversity’ suddenly loses its appetite for satire, religion or, heaven forbid, criticism of London itself. Remember the “Are you beach body ready?” poster that was banned for hurting feelings? The one showing a woman in a yellow bikini? Sadiq Khan couldn’t get to a microphone fast enough to declare London a “body-positive” zone. But as Gervais says: “Just because you’re offended, doesn’t mean you’re right.”

Since then, Khan’s office has vetoed everything from meat adverts to oil campaigns, always in the name of public virtue. He governs the capital like a headmaster confiscating magazines, deciding what adults are allowed to look at between stations. It’s not public transport anymore; it’s a rolling sermon.

That’s why Gervais’s intervention matters. He isn’t some fringe provocateur. He’s one of Britain’s most-watched comedians, adored across class and political lines. When he takes aim at hypocrisy, whether it’s celebrity moralising or political correctness, people listen. He has an instinct for where the real line of public decency lies, and it’s a long way from where our cultural gatekeepers have drawn it. 

The fact that even he can’t get a joke past the bureaucrats tells you how far we’ve drifted. If Gervais can’t advertise satire, what hope is there for anyone trying to challenge consensus thinking? When the king starts killing the jester, you know the kingdom’s in trouble.

Advertising should be judged by one metric alone: does it persuade? If it’s stupid, tasteless or misses the mark, the market will kill it. Viewers will sneer, consumers won’t buy, and brands will learn. That’s accountability, not a panel of political appointees policing tone and subtext.

It’s time to strip moralism out of marketing. Dismantle the cosy club of regulators, councils and committees that treat adults like children. Let the people, the supposed targets of all this messaging, decide what offends them and what doesn’t. Because when you hand censorship to the state or its cultural proxies, it never stops at adverts. It spreads. One day you can’t mock London crime; the next you can’t discuss it. 

Lee Taylor is CEO and Founder of marketing agency Uncommon Sense.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 05:00

Escobar: Taming The Sound And Fury Of The Empire Of Chaos

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

Close the door, put out the light
You know they won’t be home tonight
The snow falls hard and don’t you know
The winds of Thor are blowing cold

Led Zeppelin, No Quarter

In a matter of less than a year, Russian scientific know-how came up with four bangers:

1. Oreshnik: hypersonic missile, already tested in the Ukraine battleground.

2. Burevestnik: Or “Stormbringer”, with that nice Deep Purple ring. Nuclear cruise missile with unlimited range.

3. Poseidon: nuclear-powered torpedo, capable of loitering underwater, undetected, for unlimited time; then, at a command, strikes enemy coasts with a nuclear payload, provoking a radioactive tsunami. Largely exceeds the destructive power of the Sarmat, Russia’s largest ICBM.

4. Khabarovsk: nuclear sub. Call him The Messenger of Doom: capable of delivering at least 6 Doomsday-enabling Poseidons.

President Putin was crystal clear when detailing some key facts.

The “compact nuclear systems” used in the Burevestnik and the Poseidon “can also be adapted to create new energy sources, including for the Arctic.”

Putin also stressed how both Burevestnik and Poseidon “use only Russian-made parts”. Praise the Lord for those chips from upgraded Soviet washing machines.

And there’s a lot more to come following the tracks of Burevestnik and Poseidon: “I’m talking about…the Avangard system, or the serial production of the Oreshnik missile system…soon the heavy intercontinental Sarmat missile.”

The Sarmat – nicknamed Satan II – will enter combat next year: a super-heavy ICBM, carrying 10 heavy warheads, and compatible with the Avangard hypersonic glider, capable of dodging any anti-ballistic missile system.

Welcome to Russia’s next generation nuclear-powered cruise missiles, with reactors going online in a matter of seconds, and 3x speed of sound, heading towards hypersonic status.

In a nutshell: Burevestnik and Poseidon “will ensure strategic parity for the whole 21st century.”

Cue to thunderous silence heard all across the NATOstan sphere – permeated by the usual “the Russians are bluffing” gaggle noise.

Who cares? Facts are stubborn, and continue to be incontrovertible. Extra facts: Putin and Xi signing into law a mutual investment protection agreement, which translates as China protecting trillion-dollar worth Russian companies, Sberbank, Rosneft and Lukoil in case of a potential NATO-Russia war.

Or, in Eurasia connectivity corridor terms, take Putin, during the Russia-Central Asia summit, proposing unifying Eurasian logistics projects into a single network: “This would allow us to exponentially increase the volume of international transportation through our shared region.”

The massive economic/trade potential of Eurasia still remains largely untapped. Cut to the Russia-China goal of building a production-technological belt from the Russian Far East to Central Asia.

Ain’t got no deal on Russia-China

Well, these sharp facts are inbuilt in the new, emerging global reality, now a historical process – in sharp contrast with the paroxysms of Deep Desperation exhibited by the fragmented West and, significantly, the rise and rise of unilateral Empire of Chaos bullying.

Exhibit A is of course Venezuela.

The Circus Ringmaster – in a revamped remix of the war on drugs meets the war on terra – is mulling:

Bombing of Venezuelan military bases; deployment of Navy SEALS to capture or kill President Maduro; “securing” – as in invading and seizing Venezuelan oil fields, after controlling their key airfields; or even all of the above.

Trump 2.0, totally bypassing the US Congress and of course the illegality of assassinating foreign leaders, is already drafting dodgy legal “justifications” to go after Maduro as a “narco-terrorist” – much to the delight of ghastly Nobel Prize 5th columnist Machado, the female Guaido.

Total psyops is in full effect – complete with intimidating B-52 and B-1 bombers and the deployment of aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford and thousands of troops.

Venezuelans though are not impressed. Diego Sequera, from the excellent Mission Verdad, notes, “if you take how things are seen from here you get the feeling that nothing will happen. No social breakdown, no one’s freaking out. Everyone is about their business looking for la plata with an end-year holiday mood.”

Still, they have to run rings over Circus Ringmaster – who wants all that oil so bad (the takeover of natural resources is essential to maintain the Empire) and pathetic neo-con gusano Marco Rubio’s only obsession in life: regime change in Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua.

And that brings us, once again, to the insoluble Empire of Chaos drama. TACO Trump, even if his brain is not capable of conceptualizing it, may be coming to grips with the hard facts of life: he cannot “win” – or impose a “deal” – on the Russia-China strategic partnership.

On the contrary: he needs to find diversionist tactics to evade the fact he is being inflicted a massive strategic defeat in Ukraine (yes, it’s his war now) while he simply does not have the cards (all made in China) to win a protracted trade-tariff-tech war against Beijing, as demonstrated in that G-2 in South Korea. Managed decoupling is already on.

Still, the supreme delusion of American military might persists, graphically incarnated by the clownish Secretary of Forever Wars. Can’t harm Moscow or Beijing? Caracas will do.

Oh, that Shakespearean sound and fury signifying…nothing, as the Empire of Chaos devours itself by re-colonizing the vassal puppies (Europe), financial shakedown-style, while threatening/ bullying selected Global South latitudes.

Emmanuel Todd has summed it all up, succinctly. What to do when “this is indeed the first American strategic defeat on a global scale, in a context of massive deindustrialisation in the United States and difficult reindustrialisation”, while “it is already too late to compete [with China] industrially.”

Hence the vociferous, bullying Circus Ringmaster, without saying a word (a miracle, in his particular case) progressively hitting TACO-on-steroids territory when it comes to Russia-China.

That’s our cue to the new Netflix series: the Empire of Rage lashing out, irrationally, against anyone, any nation, it deems weaker, a graphic demonstration of its massive resentment. Those fishing boats are full of narco-terrorists because I say so. Kill them all.

An extra danger is that the EUro-chihuahuas take a cue from this irrational drive to increase their Russophobic provocations inter-galactically. The only rational way to deal with it would be by Oreshniking them.

The mountains are high, but the Emperor is everywhere

A classic Chinese motto, repeated dynasty after dynasty, merrily states that “The mountains are high, and the Emperor is far away”. Well, in our contemporary case, there’s no mountain high enough – to borrow from Motown – and the all-seeing Emperor of Chaos, enabled by AI, is everywhere.

Yet even that is not enough to prevent him from collapsing inside his own schizophrenic bubble, unleashing Primal Fear into the intertwined plutocracies of Big Money, Big Oil and Big Tech.

Dystopia Central: it’s not hard to draw the map of the deep, dark geostrategic void self-described “elites” plunged themselves in.

And that brings us to how – in which register – the Russian leadership is watching the show. No expectations: realism prevails.

There may be a Trump 2.0 escalation in Ukraine – or not. There may be a more devastating attack on Iran – or not. There may be a serious regime change attempt in Venezuela – and that one is a near certainty. Trump 2.0, after all – complete with Zionist oligarchs on backing vocals – is a privileged psycho-killer realm.

And then there’s the ultimate chimera: de-dollarization – which is happening in practice, slowly but surely, without being named, in several domains. Only four months ago, the Circus Ringmaster was in panic: “BRICS was set up to hurt us; BRICS was set up to degenerate our dollar and take our dollar … off as the standard”.

The panic is still there. So when in doubt – and when you can’t strike Russia-China – the next “best” option is to strike another BRICS member. Demand capitulation from Iran. Or else. Tehran, as much as Caracas, is not impressed.

Chinese wisdom, once again, would solve the enigma: “Let him be strong, the breeze will blow over the hills; let him be arrogant, the bright moon will shine on the vast rivers.”

It will be a very rough ride – to stare down the Empire of Chaos without letting it unleash Total Dementia, destabilizing Africa, West Asia, the Caribbean, everywhere, using the Syria al-Qaeda playbook (the former headchopper is to be received at the Oval Office soon).

Are China-Russia – and a great deal of the Global Majority – really ready? Call it an auspicious vow.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 23:25

Visualizing The Cost Of The American Dream In 2025

The American Dream isn’t cheap. Owning a home, raising a family, and retiring comfortably now total over $5 million across a lifetime for a household.

This milestone has grown increasingly out of reach as the median age of a U.S. homebuyer has risen to 56, up from 31 in 1981. Meanwhile, U.S. fertility rates have hit record lows amid rising unaffordability.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows the cost of the American dream in 2025, based on analysis from Investopedia.

ℹ️ The full methodology that shows how Investopedia calculated each of these costs can be found here.

The American Dream Costs $5 Million Over a Lifetime

Below, we show the lifetime cost for a household of each key markers of the American Dream:

Retirement is set to cost $1.6 million, the biggest expense overall.

This was calculated by taking $63,609 in average U.S. retirement spending per year, while factoring a 2.5% rate of inflation over 20 years. Today, 86% of Americans say its their dream to retire comfortably.

Home ownership has an average lifetime cost of $957,594. To calculate these costs, Investopedia applied the median U.S. home price of roughly $415,000 with a 20% down payment. Then, payments for a 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.69% were calculated, excluding maintenance and Homeowners Association fees.

As we can see, car ownership also comes at a large cost—estimated at $900,346. However, it’s worth noting that this applies to a household buying two new cars every 10 years. While this includes insurance costs, maintenance, and monthly payments, it does not factor in the proceeds from selling your car.

Meanwhile, raising two children will total $876,092 (including a four-year degree at a public college). If your dream is to have a wedding, the average cost now stands at $38,200, including the ring, ceremony, and reception.

Sponsored By: Cboe

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on America’s home buyers by generation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 23:00

5 Leadership Lessons From Winston Churchill For Today's World

Authored by Dustin Bass via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Winston Churchill was a man of action. He was born in 1874, during a period known as the Pax Britannica (1815–1914) and during the relative peace that had settled over Europe after the Franco-Prussian War of 1870. Nonetheless, as a young man, Churchill understood that military service was a sure path toward political elevation. To become a great leader in the political theater, he believed he first needed to be one in the theater of war. The following is what was required to make him the greatest leader of the 20th century.

British Prime minister Winston Churchill (C) walks with field Marshal Montgomery (R) along the east bank of the Rhine near Wesel, Germany, during World War II on March 25, 1945. STF/AFP via Getty Images Experience

Churchill was not an academic. He considered his schooldays to be “the only barren and unhappy period of my life.” Aside from writing and history, he did not perform well in school, thus he never attended university. He did, after three attempts, gain entrance to Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, graduating in 1894 near the top of his class and joining the 4th Queen’s Own Hussars.

From 1895 to 1900, Churchill witnessed the action he sought while doubling as a war correspondent in Cuba, India, Sudan, and South Africa, during which he was awarded the Spanish Order of Military Merit, the India Medal, the Queen’s Sudan Medal and the Khedive’s Sudan Medal, and the Queen’s South Africa Medal.

After losing his election to the House of Commons in 1899, Churchill returned to the battlefield to cover the Second Boer War in South Africa. It was here Churchill would make his name. On Nov. 15, 1899, while he was aboard an armored train, the Boers attacked, derailing several cars. Despite his journalistic position, Churchill led the charge to protect the train and clear the track, enabling it to escape. Thirty-eight British soldiers were either killed or wounded, and 23 were taken prisoner, Churchill among them.

Just as with his schooldays and garrison duties, being a prisoner of war proved boring. It was, however, an opportunity for further adventure. One December night, he escaped the prison and traveled approximately 300 miles across enemy lines to safety in today’s Mozambique, where he was welcomed as a hero.

A thirst for adventure and his literary gift for conveying those adventures not only made him one of the highest paid war correspondents, but enabled him to cultivate his image.

(L-R) British Prime minister Winston Churchill, Sir Miles Dempsey, British 2nd Army commandant, and British general Marshal Bernard Montgomery visit the destroyed city of Caen, France, after Allied forces stormed the Normandy beaches on D-Day, on July 23, 1944. STF/AFP via Getty Images Knowledge

As noted above, Churchill was not an academic. Nonetheless, he loved literature and history, and whenever he was not writing his war correspondences, engaging in battle or competing in polo, he was reading and studying. The extensive downtime in military life allowed him to devote hours to study. He studied Parliamentary debates, wrote down the arguments, and established his perspective on each. As Churchill scholar James Muller noted, “Churchill made himself his own university by reading great books.”

Certainly Churchill read for leisure, but the histories and biographies, as well as those debates, were not leisure reads. He utilized his present time in the military to create ammunition for his political future. Just as he craved adventure, he craved knowledge and wisdom in order to fuse together prudence with his courage.

Principles

By the time Churchill took his seat as a member of Parliament in 1901, he had fought bravely in four wars, become one of the world’s best war correspondents, and had written five books. He was, at the age of 26, already a known commodity. Knowledgeable? Yes. Courageous? Certainly. Principled? Without question.

As with any political figure, one must choose a party, and Churchill initially chose the Conservatives (Tories). He did not, however, choose party over principle. For example, as a Free Trader, a position the Conservatives had long held, he became vocally critical of his party when it began to shift toward protectionism. On May 31, 1904, he took a huge political risk during a session of Parliament when he walked from the Conservative side to the Liberal.

Churchill remained with the Liberal Party for the next two decades until it began supporting the up and coming Labour Party. For Churchill, Labour leaned too close to socialism, a political movement he abhorred throughout his life. In 1924, Churchill returned to the Conservatives where he remained for the rest of his political career.

Just as he understood the risks of courage on the battlefield, he understood the risks of courage in politics. For the sake of principle, such risks were worth taking.

Conservative Party leader Winston Churchill (L) walks next to British leader of the Liberal Party David Lloyd George in London in 1934. STRINGER/FRANCE PRESSE VOIR/AFP via Getty Images Prescience

Churchill’s experiences and exhaustive study of human history perhaps developed his prescience. Whether he developed it or it was simply innate, Churchill’s insight into human affairs was often proven correct well, including his perspectives on the dangers of Vladimir Lenin and the Russian Revolution, appeasing Adolf Hitler, trusting Joseph Stalin and the Soviets as an ally, the human cost of giving India independence too soon, and the coming Cold War. Furthermore, as Minister of Munitions during World War I, he proved the strongest supporter of what he called “land caterpillars” (i.e. tanks), ensuring their development and necessary inclusion in the war.

Though such prescience often left him labeled a war monger, he called that accusation “cruel and ungrateful.”

Reflecting on his leadership during World War II, he stated, “Ten years in the political wilderness had freed me from ordinary party antagonisms. My warnings over the last six years had been so numerous, so detailed, and were now so terribly vindicated, that no one could gainsay me. I could not be reproached either for making the war or with want of preparation for it.”

Time

“London will be in danger and in the high position I shall occupy,” Churchill told a friend in 1891, “it will fall to me to save the Capital and save the Empire.”

Of course, when he made that statement no one would have believed him. Indeed, had he attempted to lead a political or military cause, no one would have followed him. 

Somehow Churchill knew at a young age he was destined for greatness, and he dedicated himself to that proposition. His courage in both the military and political arenas, coupled with his willingness to stick to his principles and speak unfashionable truths, had prepared him to guide Great Britain through its darkest hour.

His decades of marching on life’s proving grounds ensured his voice rose above the rest, enabling his listeners to adopt his courage, even when he stated, “If this long island story of ours is to last, let it end only when each one of us lies choking in his own blood on the ground.”

To be the champion of—and to be championed for—such a statement doesn’t happen simply because one is a fine writer, although that is something for which Churchill was certain known. Rather, it comes through a long and arduous journey, and is forged by qualities that made Churchill the greatest leader of the 20th century. These are qualities today’s leaders would be prudent to follow.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 22:35

34 Illegal Immigrant Truck Drivers Arrested In Oklahoma: ICE

A two-day operation led to the arrest of 70 illegal immigrants in Oklahoma, which included 34 drivers operating a semi-truck or a commercial vehicle, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) said in a Nov. 4 statement.

The arrests were made in partnership with the Oklahoma Highway Patrol between Oct. 28 and 29, said the agency. It is part of Operation Guardian, which has “resulted in the arrest of many illegal aliens driving trucks that had been issued Commercial Drivers Licenses in states with sanctuary policies such as California, Illinois, and New York,” the agency said.

In places that follow sanctuary policies, local officials refuse to enforce immigration laws or comply with federal authorities.

Out of the 34 illegal immigrant truck drivers, 26 were issued a commercial driver’s license (CDL) while eight were “dangerously driving” vehicles without such licenses, ICE said.

The illegal immigrants are from 15 different nations, including China, Mexico, Turkey, Colombia, India, Guatemala, and Venezuela.

As The Epoch Times' Naveen Athrappully details below, ICE said illegal immigrants who operate vehicles without proper authorization pose a threat to public safety and undermine the rule of law. The operation sends a “clear message” that such activities won’t be tolerated, it said.

Operation Guardian is a deportation initiative implemented in February and led by Oklahoma’s Commissioner of Public Safety Tim Tipton.  Oklahoma aims to use existing state and federal regulations to transfer offending illegal immigrants for deportation proceedings.

“Operation Guardian continues to successfully keep Oklahomans safe,” said Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt.

“To lawfully operate a commercial motor vehicle in Oklahoma, you must be here legally, and you must be able to understand English. These are common-sense standards that we will continue to enforce.”

On April 28, President Donald Trump signed an executive order requiring that all commercial vehicle operators in the country be proficient in English.

“There’s a lot of communication problems between truckers on the road,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at the time. “We’re going to ensure that our truckers, who are the backbone of our economy, are all able to speak English.”

In an Oct. 30 statement, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said 223 illegal immigrants, including 146 truck drivers on Indiana highways near the Illinois state line, were arrested as part of an enforcement operation targeting public safety threats.

The illegal immigrants have engaged in criminal activity, including drug trafficking, assault, child abuse, domestic battery, driving under the influence, and fraud, DHS said. Out of the 146 drivers, more than 40 were issued CDLs, mostly by New York, California, and Illinois.

“Far too many innocent Americans have been killed by illegal aliens driving semi-trucks and big rigs. And yet, sanctuary states around the country have been issuing illegal aliens commercial driver’s licenses. The Trump Administration is ending the chaos,” said DHS Secretary Kristi Noem.

In August, an illegal immigrant from India was arrested after making an illegal U-turn in an 18-wheeler in Florida, colliding with a minivan and killing three people. He pleaded not guilty in September.

Strengthening Driver License Rules

In a Sept. 26 statement, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) said it had conducted a nationwide audit that uncovered a “catastrophic pattern” of states issuing driver’s licenses illegally to foreign nationals.

Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy announced emergency actions to make noncitizens ineligible for a nondomiciled CDL unless they meet “a much stricter set of rules,” FMCSA said.

The stringent regulations include undergoing a mandatory federal immigration status check that uses the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) system.

“What our team has discovered should disturb and anger every American,” Duffy said.

“Licenses to operate a massive, 80,000-pound truck are being issued to dangerous foreign drivers—often times illegally. This is a direct threat to the safety of every family on the road, and I won’t stand for it. Today’s actions will prevent unsafe foreign drivers from renewing their license and hold states accountable to immediately invalidate improperly issued licenses.”

The U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants submitted comments to the Federal Register, criticizing the move to end nondomiciled CDL for foreign nationals, the group said in an Oct. 29 statement.

The move will not only threaten the livelihood of immigrant drivers but also the stability and well-being of the United States, the committee said.

“Trucking is a job that requires long nights and days away from loved ones. It is a hard job that not many willingly sign up for. As a result, the industry has struggled to keep drivers on staff,” said the group.

“Assailed by these steep labor shortages, immigrant workers have picked up the slack: 18 percent of truckers are foreign-born. Like so many other industries, immigrants fill the jobs others do not want.”

During an Oct. 30 press conference, Duffy announced that the DOT will seek to withhold federal government funds from states issuing nondomiciled CDLs to foreign nationals who are unlawfully in the United States.

States need to ensure that people who receive such licenses are proficient in English, Duffy said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 22:10

Our Modern Madhouse Exposes A Collective Laziness Of Mind

Authored by Todd Hayen via Off-Guardian.org,

Black, White, And The Comfortable Lie

I was talking to a very close friend the other day who happens to be a die-hard Trump hater (I know what you are thinking, don’t ask). We unfortunately drifted into a “discussion” about the January 6 fiasco (and also don’t ask me why I bother). Time and time again, I run into this sort of thing—where the position on the left believes they are 100% right about any particular controversial topic.

No matter how much contradicting (to their position) information I provide, they dismiss it all as garbage. “It is obvious what it is, and that’s that.” As with most things these days, I find this odd.

Nothing is 100% a particular way, with zero valid argument in the other direction. Nothing except very simple things. I am, of course, describing the infamous “false binary” or “false dichotomy” or “false dilemma.”

This is nothing new, of course. The idea of the false binary has been kicking around human thought since the days when philosophers in togas were debating the nature of reality. It’s a logical fallacy that’s as old as logic itself, with roots stretching back to ancient Greece.

Aristotle, that granddaddy of Western philosophy, touched on similar ideas in his works on rhetoric and ethics, warning against oversimplifying complex arguments into rigid either-or choices that ignore the messy nuances of life. He didn’t call it a “false dichotomy” per se—that term came later—but he was essentially calling out the same intellectual laziness in his critiques of sophistry, where debaters would trap opponents in contrived binaries to win points rather than seek truth.

Fast-forward a few centuries, and the concept gets more formalized during the Enlightenment, when thinkers like John Locke and David Hume started dissecting human reasoning and its pitfalls. But it really crystallized in the 19th and 20th centuries with the rise of formal logic and fallacy studies. Logicians like John Stuart Mill in his System of Logic (1843) highlighted how people often frame debates as black-or-white to manipulate outcomes, excluding middle grounds or alternative possibilities.

By the mid-20th century, it was a staple in critical thinking texts—consider Irving Copi’s Introduction to Logic in the 1950s, which cataloged it as a classic informal fallacy. In essence, a false dichotomy presents a situation as if there are only two mutually exclusive options, when in reality, there’s a spectrum, or third (or fourth, or fifth) paths lurking in the shadows. It’s like saying, “You’re either with us or against us,” as if loyalty is a switch that can’t be dimmed or rewired.

This trick forces people into polarized corners, shutting down dialogue and making compromise seem like betrayal.

In our modern madhouse, it’s weaponized everywhere—from politics, where elections are pitched as apocalyptic battles between good and evil, to the Covid era’s “vax or die” mantra that erased any talk of natural immunity or alternative treatments. It’s a mind trap that preys on our tribal instincts, making us feel secure in our righteousness while blinding us to the gray areas where real understanding lives. And that’s the shrew’s (contrarian thinkers) edge: spotting these illusions before they hook us.

Kit Knightly, the sharp-witted editor at Off-Guardian, wields the term “false binary” (or its sly cousin “fake binary”) like a scalpel in the operating theatre of narrative dissection—precise, incisive, and always aimed at the festering heart of controlled opposition.

Primarily on OffG, where he’s been a cornerstone voice since the site’s early days, Knightly deploys it to unmask how power structures peddle rigged choices. Such as the endless left/right, red/blue, or vaxx/anti-vaxx traps that corral dissent into neat little pens, ensuring the real exit stays bolted shut. His star turn? Co-hosting the September 2024 livestream “Debunking the False Binary” with the freshly minted Independent Media Alliance (IMA)—flanked by heavyweights like Iain Davis, Derrick Broze, and James Corbett. There, they eviscerate the “fake binary” as a core narrative control technique, spotlighting how “alternative” media gets infiltrated with hopium-laced divides: Trump saviors vs. Harris horrors, pro-Ukraine “freedom fighters” vs. pro-Russia isolationists, or techno-utopias vs. Luddite panic—all engineered to seed division while the technocratic overlords chuckle from the shadows.

Elsewhere, Knightly echoes this in IMA’s launch manifesto, framing the false binary as public enemy #1 in alt-media warfare: countering “false two-party paradigms,” imperial war cheerleading, and digital ID “solutions” pitched as the lone fix for every ill. Knightly doesn’t just name the fallacy; he maps its deployment in real-time psyops, from Covid compliance cults to election theatre, urging us to torch the scripts and dance in the nuance.

Why do people cling to false dichotomies like life rafts in a storm? Sure, the agenda-pushers love them—black-and-white framing is the perfect divide-and-conquer tool, herding sheep into opposing pens while the shepherds count the wool. But let’s not pretend that’s the whole story. The real rot runs deeper, straight into the human psyche, where comfort trumps complexity every time.

Most folks aren’t wired for the cognitive marathon that critical thinking demands. Nuance is exhausting; it requires holding contradictory ideas in your head without your brain blue-screening. Polarity? That’s a cozy blanket. Pick a side, slap on a label, and suddenly the world makes sense—no pesky gray areas to trip over. It’s the mental equivalent of fast food: quick, satisfying, and ultimately bad for you. Cognitive dissonance is painful; false binaries are painkillers.

Carl Jung, that old Swiss sage of the psyche, nailed it when he spoke of the “tension of the opposites”—the electric space where thesis clashes with antithesis, birthing the living synthesis that is real life.

This isn’t some tidy resolution; it’s a perpetual tightrope walk, demanding we hold the unbearable “unknowning” in our trembling hands, staring into the abyss between black and white without flinching. Most sheep-types (and I have to say, many shrew-types as well these days) bolt for the cliffs of certainty, terrified of the vertigo that comes with admitting “maybe I’m wrong, maybe it’s both, maybe it’s neither.” The ego screams for solid ground—pick a side, plant a flag, silence the dissonance—so they collapse the tension into a false binary, snuffing out the very spark that could illuminate truth. Most critical thinkers (at least the ones I mingle with) thrive in the friction, muscles aching from the pull, because that’s where the gods hide, whispering secrets to those brave enough to listen without answers.

Then there’s the tribal pull. Humans are pack animals, and nothing bonds a group faster than a common enemy. “Us vs. Them” isn’t just a narrative trick—it’s evolutionary. Back in the savanna days, you didn’t survive by pondering the moral ambiguity of the rival tribe; you picked your side and swung the club. Today, that instinct gets hijacked by algorithms and talking heads, but the wiring’s the same. Admitting your team might be wrong feels like betrayal, so people double down, even when the facts are screaming otherwise.

And yes, critical thinking’s been on life support for decades. Schools teach compliance, not curiosity. Media rewards outrage, not analysis. Social platforms amplify the loudest, simplest takes. We’ve raised generations that confuse certainty with strength and doubt with weakness. When you’ve never been taught to question, polarity isn’t just easier—it’s the only path you can see. And this, needless to say, is largely, if not entirely, the work of the agenda, whose sole intention is to control the masses.

That said, the agenda exploits what’s mostly already there: a collective laziness of mind, a fear of ambiguity, and a desperate need to belong. The shepherds don’t create the sheep; they just build better fences. Those of us who use our critical thinking see the gates and seek ways out of the herd. Most don’t even look.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 21:45

Darcy Song of top1000funds reports Canada marks five-year reign as global transparency leader: 

Canada has been named the country with the most transparent pension funds for the fifth consecutive year, according to the 2025 Global Pension Transparency Benchmark, with each of the five Canadian funds assessed ranked in the top 15 funds globally.

The results reaffirmed the strengths of the Canadian model, known for its sound governance, clear investment mandates and well-run in-house capabilities. The Canada country ranking was eight points ahead of the two countries in second place, Australia and the Netherlands, which had an overall transparency score of 92.

The GPTB assesses the largest five funds in 15 countries and in Canada that was CPP Investments, CDPQ, BCI, OTPP and PSP. The overall transparency score is based on the measure of four factors – three of which Canada led the way. It displayed the best-in-class governance, performance and responsible investing disclosure practices, but lost out to the Netherlands in cost disclosures.

In large part the leadership displayed by Dutch pension funds in cost reporting is due to regulation. Dutch funds are legally required to report on their costs under a prescribed method – through the Financial Assessment Framework – to the regulator De Nederlandsche Bank.

CEM Benchmarking product manager Edsart Heuberger, who is research lead for the GPTB, says Canada’s leadership position is partly driven by a healthy dose of peer competition.

“With a region like Canada, there’s always been a bit of an effect of thinking ‘what’s CPP doing? If CPP is doing it, we better do too’,” he says.

“The Maple 8 funds pride themselves on great governance and great transparency. They’re all big. They’re all wanting to be leaders and competitive with one another. They want to say this is who we are, and this is what we have to be – that’s why I think they’re leaders in all but one category in the four factors.”

Europe showed strength in transparency as a region, with half of the top 10 most transparent countries belonging to the continent.

Heuberger notes that some nations don’t have a prevailing culture of transparency which is manifested in the ranking, such as Latin America and Japan (despite its massive pension assets).

“In countries like Mexico and Chile, which are the two Latin American countries in our benchmark, and to a lesser extent Brazil, we just don’t see a lot of progress,” he says. “Even though this [transparency benchmark] has been in the public domain for five years, there hasn’t been much impetus for change, that we’ve heard or seen.”

“Likewise, some of the Japanese pension funds didn’t seem to have lot of movement. Maybe that’s just reflective of that [reserved] Japanese business culture,” he says, noting that the $1.9 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) only ranked 32 in the overall benchmark.

“Another aspect is there are some highly regulated markets … like Australia and the Netherlands, and the UK, and you do see those markets do well.”

A joint initiative between Top1000funds.com and CEM Benchmarking, the 2025 edition of the GPTB marks the final instalment of a five-year project which was established to showcase and encourage best practice in the industry and provide a self-improvement framework for fiduciary investors.

Among all 75 funds assessed, 61 per cent improved their score (compared to 72 per cent last year) and 15 per cent had worse scores.

All 15 countries represented in 2025 fared better than five years ago when the GPTB released its first edition. The countries that have improved transparency the most over the five-year period are Australia (20 points), Canada (18 points) and the United States (16 points). 

Earlier today, CPP Investments announced it once again ranked highly among the world's most transparent pension funds:

CPP Investments has once again earned global recognition for leadership in pension fund transparency, reflecting its belief that openness and accountability build trust and strengthen long-term performance. 

In the newly released 2025 Global Pension Transparency Benchmark (GPTB), CPP Investments earned a score of 97 — up one point from 2024 — ranking second globally behind only Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global. 

Canada’s leader for years 

This marks the fifth consecutive year CPP Investments has been recognized as Canada’s top-ranked pension fund for transparency, maintaining its leadership position since the benchmark’s inception in 2021. 

“In Canada, there’s often a sense of ‘What’s CPP Investments doing? If CPPIB is doing it, we’d better follow,’” said Edsart Heuberger, Product Manager at CEM Benchmarking, the Toronto-based firm that co-develops the Global Pension Transparency Benchmark. He noted that Canada continues to lead all countries reviewed in pension fund transparency, in part due to CPP Investments’ influence. 

Measuring what matters 

The GPTB evaluates the public disclosures of 75 pension funds across 15 countries, focusing on the five largest in each market. Funds are assessed across four categories: governance and organization, performance, costs, and responsible investing. Each category is evaluated for clarity, completeness, comparability, and overall information value. 

CPP Investments’ strong 2025 result was driven by a perfect score of 100 in governance, along with scores in the high 90s for both performance and responsible investing. This reflects the quality of disclosures on board structure and oversight, investment strategy, and the integration of environmental, social, and governance factors in decision-making. 

“Transparency goes beyond disclosure, it’s about providing the right information clearly so that stakeholders are better informed and more confident in the Fund’s strategy,” says Michel Leduc, Senior Managing Director and Global Head of Public Affairs and Communications. 

Transparency strengthens trust 

At CPP Investments, transparency is a way of working — built into how the organization communicates, reports, and engages with Canadians. By designing information for clarity and accessibility, CPP Investments strengthens public trust and reinforces confidence in the CPP’s long-term sustainability. 

Since the GPTB launched five years ago, CPP Investments’ score has improved by 16 points, reflecting sustained efforts to enhance openness and accountability across all major areas of fund management. 

Its approach to assembling, designing, disseminating, and engaging on strategy, risk, asset allocation, costs, and climate-related issues stands out as a leading example of accessible financial disclosure. 

Looking ahead, the organization aim to continue building on this foundation — evolving with stakeholder expectations while delivering long-term value for generations of Canadians. 

I would invite you to read more on the Global Pension Transparency Benchmark here.

Below, the 2025 results for the world's most transparent pension funds (full list is available here). As you can see, Canadian pension funds were among the most transparent in the world, led by CPP Investments, CDPQ (now La Caisse) and BCI:

At the very top of the list is Norway's Government Pension Fund Global with a perfect score.

No big surprise there, as CEO Nicolai Tangen explains to Amanda White of top1000funds, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund aims to be the global leader in transparency: 

Transparency has been high on the agenda of Nicolai Tangen since he became chief executive of Norges Bank Investment Management, responsible for the management of the $1.43 trillion Government Pension Fund Global, three years ago.

It’s not just because being transparent is the right thing to do, or that the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is a ‘fund for the people’ and stakeholder management is crucial. It’s because transparency builds trust and a platform to be more impactful in generating change.

“Knowledge of the fund is linked to the trust that people have in the fund,” Tangen says in an interview with Top1000funds.com about the fund taking top spot in the Global Pension Transparency Benchmark for 2023. “We are really dependent on the trust of the Norwegian people, because this is a democratically-anchored fund it has to do with the trust of the people and the politicians and the whole governance structure here. Norway is a very transparent and democratic society and so we have to reflect that in the way we run the fund.”

But importantly, as an investor, being transparent allows the fund to be more influential when it wants to address change in the portfolio companies it invests in.

“By being more transparent you are more impactful when you try to investigate change,” Tangen says. “We work hard with our portfolio companies to get them to be more transparent, to disclose more on what they do on climate and so on. So we owe to them to be as transparent as we can be.” 

Back in 2007, after I left PSP Investments, I wrote a big report for the Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat on the governance of the public sector pension plan and in that report, I delved deeply into the governance of Norway's massive wealth fund and their world-leading transparency.

In short, Norway's Government Pension Fund Global is way ahead of everyone else when it comes to transparency and you see it in their communications, detailed and timely disclosures, video presentations, podcasts and more.

Norway's GPFG sets the transparency bar globally and CPP Investments sets it within Canada although La Caisse is a close second and BCI isn't far behind.

I like what Michel Leduc, Senior Managing Director and Global Head of Public Affairs and Communications states in their press release: “Transparency goes beyond disclosure, it’s about providing the right information clearly so that stakeholders are better informed and more confident in the Fund’s strategy.”

Indeed but just like governance, transparency is something that needs to be improved every year.

For example, if it were up to me, CPP Investments would have a detailed list of all their hedge funds (established and emerging managers), private equity funds, real estate and private credit funds with the exact amounts invested in each one of them for each fiscal year. 

I would have detailed information on secondaries and co-investments, not just in the annual report but also on its websites.

There would be a section on benchmarks with clear explanation on performance targets and how compensation is determined not just in the annual report but on the website.

I'd have detailed performance attribution on every major deal CPP Investments ever did going back to inception of the Fund, that includes all private co-investments. Again, on the website, once click and I have all the information. 

Most importantly, I would list the total compensation of every employee at the end of every fiscal year.

If we want to talk up diversity, equity and inclusion, let's be radically transparent on compensation.

Sure, the Fund will push back for "competitive reasons" but this is my perfect world of transparency.

Put it all out there, Canadians are contributing to your Fund helping to pay your salaries and bonuses so everyone deserves to know details on compensation right down to the associate level. 

I would implore Norway's massive wealth fund to do the same.

Lastly, I like hearing from actual employees at all levels, not just CEOs and senior execs, put more interviews on your website featuring all employees and what they do and give us a glimpse of what it feels like working at CPP Investments.

I'll stop there because I can go on and on on governance and transparency but my point is don't sit and pat yourselves on the back, always aim to do more, to be better and really outdo yourselves in terms of setting a high bar on pension transparency.

Below, a candid discussion with Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management which manages the assets of Norway's massive sovereign wealth funds. Listen carefully to his views on the secret sauce behind the Fund's long-term success (March, 2025).