Feed aggregator

A Quarter Of Americans Now Believe Political Violence Is Justified

Zero Hedge -

A Quarter Of Americans Now Believe Political Violence Is Justified

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

We have seen a rise in both rage rhetoric and political violence. New polling shows a shocking level of support for political violence, even after the assassination of Charlie Kirk. A new poll shows roughly a quarter of voters believe political violence is justified with the highest percentage among younger voters.

The poll shows that 55 percent of Americans expect political violence to increase with the highest percentage among Harris voters at 61 percent.

Younger Americans are the most supportive of political violence. The poll shows that one in three Americans under 45 years old believes that political violence is justified.

This tracks with other polling that shows that roughly thirty percent of both Democrats and Republicans felt that political violence might be necessary.

The rise in support for political violence comes at a time when politicians are increasingly engaging in violent or rage rhetoric.

DNC Chair Ken Martin just told MSNBC’s “The Beat” that “we may be nearing” the moment when “elections don’t matter and then the resistance looks completely different.” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called on people to “forcefully rise up.”

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., who pictures himself brandishing a baseball bat has previously called upon people to “fight in the streets.”

California Governor Gavin Newsom previously declared, “I’m going to punch these sons of bitches in the mouth.”

Virginia Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger  called upon her supporters to “Let your rage fuel you.”

She then refused to withdraw her support for the Democratic candidate for Attorney General, Jay Jones, who once expressed his desire to kill his political opponents and his children.

In his podcast with co-host Al Hunt, James Carville was again spewing unhinged hate. He returned to treating Trump and others as Nazis and their supporters as “collaborators.” I previously criticized Carville for that analogy. He later attacked me.

Doubling down, Carville declared

“You know what we do with collaborators? I think these corporations, my fantasy dream is that this nightmare ends in 2029 and I think we ought to have radical things. I think they all ought to have their heads shaven, they should be put in orange pajamas and they should be marched down Pennsylvania Avenue and the public should be invited to spit on them.”

To be sure that his menacing words were not lost, he then added “The universities, the corporations, the law firms, all of these collaborators should be shaved, pajamaed and spit on.”

There was no later pushback by his co-host, Hunt, or anyone else associated with the podcast.

Notably, going into today’s election, Jay Jones was still leading in the polls despite saying that he wanted to kill political opponents and their children. Democratic voters were clearly not deterred by such rage rhetoric.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 17:00

"Charles Schwab Will Now Vote For Musk's CEO Performance Award," Says Tesla Investor

Zero Hedge -

"Charles Schwab Will Now Vote For Musk's CEO Performance Award," Says Tesla Investor

Update (1633ET):

Tesla investors unleashed what appears to be a successful pressure campaign against Charles Schwab on Tuesday. The day began with furious shareholders threatening a mass exodus from the brokerage, as social media posts about withdrawing funds raked in millions of views. The uproar centered around Schwab's plan to vote "No" on Elon Musk's multibillion-dollar Tesla pay package, and by late afternoon trading, according to at least one investor, the firm quietly reversed course. 

Tesla investor Sawyer Merritt wrote on X: 

I have just confirmed that @CharlesSchwab will be voting FOR Elon Musk's 2025 CEO Performance Award plan. Schwab voted NO in both the 2018 and 2024 pay package votes. Schwab: "Schwab asset management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO Performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns with management and shareholder interest."

Meritt noted:

Yes. I just got off the phone with multiple people at Schwab. They read me the full internal memo that corporate just put together. Any Schwab client can now call their advisor or representative and confirm my news above.

Another Tesla investor, Jason DeBolt, who was instrumental in the pressure campaign against Schwab, also confirmed that the brokerage has changed its mind.

Where is corporate media's reporting? 

Musk chimed in earlier.

And will Tesla investors now focus their efforts on State Street? 

*   *   * 

Tesla shareholders will vote Thursday on whether to approve Elon Musk's $1 trillion pay package, a 10-year performance plan tied to several milestones. Norway's $2.1 trillion sovereign wealth fund will vote "No" on the proposal. The package would only unlock if Musk lifts Tesla's market value from $1.4 trillion to $8.5 trillion, which hinges on the deployment of humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles, AI, and other advanced technologies expected to dominate the 2030s.

Our focus shifts to X, where Tesla investors who are Charles Schwab customers are staging a revolt against the brokerage house that is reportedly planning to vote "No."  

A viral post, viewed more than 3 million times, by Tesla investor "Jason DeBolt" warned Schwab:

Here's why this is urgent: At least 6 of your ETF funds (around 7 million $TSLA shares) voted against Tesla's board, and my 240,000+ Tesla investor followers are asking why Schwab would oppose one of the most successful corporate boards in history. Many of my followers are Schwab clients holding more shares than me (45,000 or more).

As a custodian of ETF shares, your fiduciary duty is to vote in shareholders' best interests. For a board that has delivered extraordinary returns, voting against their recommendations doesn't align with retail investors, Tesla employees, or the leadership we invested to support.

If Schwab's proxy voting policies don't reflect shareholder interests, my followers and I will move our collective tens of millions in $TSLA shares (or possibly hundreds of millions) to a broker that does, via account transfer as soon as this week. I'm not making empty threats - I am ready to move my shares now. The Tesla investor community is engaged and ready to act as well. 

"I can't in good conscience stay with a brokerage that votes against this CEO Performance Award plan that is in my view clearly in shareholders' best interests. I join @jasondebolt in saying that voting against the recommendations of a board that has delivered extraordinary returns is out of step with retail investors, Tesla employees, and the leadership we invested in to support," Tesla investor Sawyer Merritt wrote on X. The post was hearted by Musk.

Retail investors rage at Schwab: 

FAFO Charles Schwab. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 16:33

One Little 'K'... And The End Of America

Zero Hedge -

One Little 'K'... And The End Of America

Authored by Adam Sharp via DailyReckoning.com,

A disturbing chart is making waves in the financial world.

It’s a long-term view of job openings (blue) vs the S&P 500 (black). The dotted line shows when ChatGPT launched in November of 2022.

Take a look:

Digesting this chart gives me heartburn.

As you can see, historically job openings and the stock market have moved in parallel.

When the economy was good, both metrics moved up. When it was bad, they fell.

But in November of 2022, this relationship snapped like a twig. That’s when OpenAI released its groundbreaking ChatGPT app.

Ever since, job openings have plummeted while the S&P 500 soared to new highs.

AI has simultaneously caused a stock bubble and cratered job openings.

AI stocks have levitated the market with their gains, while the same technology is ripping apart the job market.

Entry-level positions are especially vulnerable to AI, but it’s disrupting the entire white collar job market.

This is our new K-shaped economy.

The Godfather of AI’s Latest Warning

The top 4 American AI spenders alone (Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft) plan to spend $420 billion on infrastructure in the next year. That’s mostly GPUs, data centers, and power generation.

Nearly half a trillion dollars, from just the top 4 U.S. companies… That’s up from $360 billion this year. Globally, AI spending over the next year will surely surpass $1.5 trillion.

The “Godfather of AI”, Geoffrey Hinton, says this level of spending can only be justified by replacing humans:

“I think the big companies are betting on it causing massive job replacement by AI, because that’s where the big money is going to be.

… I believe that to make money you’re going to have to replace human labor.”

It does seem like the only logical explanation.

Of course, there’s a chance that Big Tech is overspending, and AI will fail to replace a large number of workers. Let’s all hope for that outcome.

But we must prepare for the outcome where AI wins. This technology is only a few years old and already more competent than the average person at many tasks.

The tech has steadily improved, and with so much at stake, further breakthroughs are inevitable.

Just an Adjustment Period?

Some will argue that this is simply an adjustment period. That eventually the market will work its magic and adapt to the new reality, finding new opportunities for those displaced by AI.

A common rebuttal to the AI disruption theory is that tractors displaced farmers, and it all turned out fine because those farmers went to work in factories and other jobs created by the economic shift.

But when tractors revolutionized farming, it was anything but a smooth transition. In 1910 there were perhaps 1,000 tractors in the world. By 1930 there were 900,000.

The farm work that previously took dozens of men suddenly took 2. Most farm workers had to find new lines of work. If they were lucky, they got a job at a factory. But this involved moving to a new area, and all the expenses and difficulties associated with it.

So while from our modern view, the transition from manual farm labor to automated seems simple, in reality it was a long difficult transformation of the world’s workforce.

3 Years In

We are only 3 years into the AI disruption. And compared to previous technological breakthroughs, like the tractor, this one is happening much quicker.

The chart below shows results of a Wharton study on AI adoption among corporate executives. Today 46% of execs report using AI daily. That’s up from 11% in 2023 and 29% in 2024.

Source: Olivia Moore

As you can see, fully 68% of IT workers are using AI on a daily basis, up from 21% in 2023. And 39% of legal workers are now using AI every day, up from just 9% last year.

The next big step in AI is “agents” – autonomous AI workers capable of taking a task from start to finish with little oversight.

AI agents are not quite at the stage where they can outright replace human workers. But they can already augment productivity, and allow one person to do the work of two or three.

Make no mistake. Widespread disruption is coming. Those who utilize AI well will become super productive. Those who don’t risk falling behind, or even being laid off.

Eventually, I’m sure the economy will adjust to this new reality and find productive ways for all workers to contribute. But we don’t know how long that’s going to take.

Every great technological leap begins with a breakthrough.

The loom, steam engine, tractor, and computer. Each improved the world in time, but came with a difficult adjustment period.

AI could end up being the most disruptive of all. An unprecedented reallocation of the world’s workforce, compressed into a single decade.

So for a while, the white collar world is going to see serious disruption. For many young people today, a blue collar path may be a better choice. The era of “everyone should go to college and get a desk job” is ending.

My 16-year old wants to enter the trades, maybe even start his own operation, which I fully support. It’s going to be a while before robots can handle most blue collar work.

And in the long run, this shift will probably be a good thing for the world. We need to get back to building and producing things. More welders, and less email jobs.

Yes, it’s going to be painful. But eventually we’ll end up at a place where algorithms are handling the bulk of busywork, and humans are doing creative and productive real-world tasks.

In time, it will work itself out. But for a while, it’s going to seem like the end of the world as we know it.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 16:20

"I Hope You Die": Montana Race Rattled By Latest Example Of Rage Rhetoric

Zero Hedge -

"I Hope You Die": Montana Race Rattled By Latest Example Of Rage Rhetoric

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

This week, I ran a column on how many on the left have discovered the joy and release of unmitigated hate speech. Democratic Helena City Commissioner candidate Haley McKnight is under fire for messages left on the phone of freshman Sen. Tim Sheehy, R-Mont., in which she hopes for him to get cancer and die. It comes on the day that voters are going to the polls in Virginia, where the Democratic candidate for Attorney General, Jay Jones, admitted that he previously expressed a desire to kill a political opponent and his children.

As a measure of the appeal of rage rhetoric, Jones remains the leading candidate in the race, with most Democrats planning to vote for him.

In her voicemail, McKnight states:

“Hi, this is Haley McKnight. I’m a constituent in Helena, Montana. I just wanted to let you know that you are the most insufferable kind of coward and thief. You just stripped away healthcare for 17 million Americans, and I hope you’re really proud of that. I hope that one day you get pancreatic cancer, and it spreads throughout your body so fast that they can’t even treat you for it.”

She then left a litany of insults about Sheehy’s fertility and his children, before warning the senator not to “meet me on the streets.” She then added:

“I hope you die in the street like a dog. One day, you’re going to live to regret this. I hope that your children never forgive you. I hope that you are infertile. I hope that you manage to never get a boner ever again. You are the worst piece of s— I have ever, ever, ever had the misfortune of looking at … God forbid that you ever meet me on the streets because I will make you regret it. F— you. I hope you die…All that you have done since you have gotten into power is do s— for yourself.”

McKnight moved to Montana from North Carolina and owned Sage & Oats Trading Post, which she describes as “a successful Native American-owned gift store” on her campaign website.

What was striking about this story was McKnight’s response. She explained how her rage was righteous and blamed conservatives for making public a voicemail with threats left at the office of a U.S. senator.

In an interview about the controversy, she insisted, “I was responding to some horrible policy with some justified rage.”

McKnight blamed Sheehy for not calling her back after her hateful messages to chat:

“I would hope that if Sheehy was so rattled by my voicemail, he would have contacted me instead of leaking my information to conservative news media the night before an election. It feels like a cheap shot. I’m one of his constituents, and you know, this message is nothing that I’d say to my grandmother or in front of any children, it was meant for Senator Sheehy alone.”

There is, of course, another lesson that many of us strive to leave for our children: you should speak with respect and civility in others in both private and public settings. Indeed, you should not talk to others in ways that you would be embarrassed to do in front of children. It is not the consequences that dictate how we act or speak.

Instead, McKnight insists that such threats and insults are justified when you disagree with others. She is clearly not alone. As shown in Virginia, many voters will still vote for such candidates. Indeed, many may be drawn to such candidates by such rhetoric.

Ironically, her campaign site quotes her saying, “I have worked hard to combat the loneliness epidemic in our community.”

Raving at others about wishing them cancer and celebrating their death may not be the best approach for building relationships for the chronically lonely.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 15:40

DOE And NRC Sign Addendum To Fast Track Commercial Reactor Licensing

Zero Hedge -

DOE And NRC Sign Addendum To Fast Track Commercial Reactor Licensing

The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) recently signed Addendum No. 9 to their 2019 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), paving the way for faster follow-on licensing of advanced nuclear reactors and nuclear fuel technologies.

This agreement, signed Oct 24th and effective immediately, comes as major concerns have been raised by reactor development companies and industry observers regarding the double work that may be required of developers when they bring their tested products over to the NRC. Demand for clean, reliable energy by data centers and major industrial companies has created a stronger need for change in the path to reactor design commercialization, with companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon signing long-term offtake agreements with reactor operators Constellation, NextEra, and Talen.

The addition to the MOU comes from the directives out of Trump's executive orders signed back in May of this year. From section 5.d of the executive order “Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission”:

“Establish an expedited pathway to approve reactor designs that the DOD or the DOE have tested and that have demonstrated the ability to function safely. NRC review of such designs shall focus solely on risks that may arise from new applications permitted by NRC licensure, rather than revisiting risks that have already been addressed in the DOE or DOD processes.”

Surprisingly, the DOE and NRC took the executive order one step further and included a streamlined licensing process for nuclear fuel facilities as well. It becomes less surprising when we remember the current administration has highlighted multiple times the desire to reduce the reliance on foreign nuclear fuel supplies. Even with the Russian uranium import ban, the US is still importing over a fifth of the required enriched uranium from Russia through last year. The US government is looking to expand the domestic capacity of every step in the fuel chain as quickly as possible.

The new addendum will directly impact the companies already announced by the DOE as participants in their pilot reactor and fuel programs:

  • Reactor developers: Aalo Atomics, Antares Nuclear, Atomic Alchemy, Deep Fission, Last Energy, Oklo (two projects), Natura Resources, Radiant Industries, Terrestrial Energy, Valar Atomics
  • Fuel facilities: Standard Nuclear, Oklo, Terrestrial Energy, TRISO-X, Valar Atomics

Additional companies are expected to be announced for both of the programs in the near future, as the DOE still looks to expand the number of participants as an effort to increase the chance of success.

There are multiple companies currently involved that are worth highlighting. Oklo is the most involved company, with three reactor projects — Aurora, Pluto, and Atomic Alchemy — currently receiving high-speed treatment, and three nuclear fuel facilities on the fast track as well. Terrestrial Energy enjoys double involvement with their integrated molten salt reactor design and unique fuel. Valar Atomics has also earned a spot in both programs, alongside industry leadership on the reactor side from Aalo and Radiant, and on the fuel side with Standard Nuclear.

Part IV.C of the addendum discusses the new agreement between the NRC and DOE, with two separate statements for advanced reactor designs and nuclear fuel line facilities:

“NRC establishes an expedited pathway to approve advanced reactor designs [nuclear fuel line facilities] that have been authorized and tested by DOE and have demonstrated the ability to function safely that focuses on risks or safety issues identified during the NRC licensing review that may arise from, among other things, design changes in new applications to be licensed by the NRC, rather than revisiting risks that have already been addressed in the DOE review.”

This removes the previous risk of a company designing a reactor, getting the DOE to approve it, building an operating it for months or years to develop proficiency and improvements, only to have the NRC tear it apart to meet a different set of requirements that results in a loss of the work put in to the reactor up to that point. The NRC will now skip reviews regarding design features that are no different in the commercial product than they are with the design built under the DOE.

There are likely more MOUs to be released in the near future, specifically relating to coordination between the DOW and the NRC for all the same reasons. This will stem from the Army's recently announced Janus Program, which looks to hyper-speed the development of microreactors, such as that recently launched by Nano Nuclear, and drive consolidation and standardization of the nuclear equipment/manufacturing supply chain.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 14:40

US Homeownership Tenure Hits Highest Level In 25 Years

Zero Hedge -

US Homeownership Tenure Hits Highest Level In 25 Years

U.S. homeowners who sold their properties in the third quarter of 2025 had owned them for an average of 8.39 years, the longest tenure in at least 25 years, real estate analytics company ATTOM said in a statement released on Oct. 21.

The longer homeownership tenure reflects “a mix of factors shaping the 2025 housing market,” the company stated.

“Higher mortgage rates may have made homeowners less likely to move, as many remain locked into historically low rates from prior years,” the statement reads.

“Limited inventory and elevated home prices may have also made finding an affordable next home difficult, keeping potential sellers in place longer.”

The state with the longest average homeownership tenure in the third quarter was Massachusetts at 12.91 years.

This was closely followed by Connecticut at 12.66 years, California at 11.2 years, Rhode Island at 11 years, and Washington state at 10.74 years.

Maine had the shortest average homeownership tenure at 4.8 years, followed by Mississippi at 5.71 years, South Dakota at 5.79 years, West Virginia at 6.04 years, and Georgia at 6.11 years.

As Naveen Athrappully reports for The Epoch Times, according to ATTOM, all-cash sales continued to rise in the third quarter, with 38.9 percent of all homes sold nationwide during this period being all-cash deals, up from 37.6 percent in the third quarter of 2024.

“The increase in all‑cash sales suggests a larger share of buyers may be avoiding financing altogether, potentially investors or downsizing homeowners using accumulated equity, which continues to influence both mobility and overall market dynamics,” ATTOM stated.

Homeowners who sold off their properties in the third quarter made a 49.9 percent profit on a typical single-family home or condo, ATTOM said in an Oct. 16 statement.

While this is slightly lower than the 55.4 percent profit seen during the third quarter of 2024, it is still way higher than the roughly 30 percent profit margin home sellers saw before 2020, according to the company.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, home prices have surged, contributing to massive profits for owners willing to sell.

According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the average sale price of homes sold in the United States in the second quarter was $512,800, up from $371,100 five years ago in the second quarter of 2020.

“Profit margins remained steady and high throughout the traditionally busier summer selling season,” ATTOM CEO Rob Barber said.

“While continuously rising prices could have chased away buyers and slackened demand, the recent dip in mortgage rates may be helping to keep more people in the market.”

Even though high home prices are giving large profits to sellers who have held on to their properties since the COVID-19 pandemic, selling has become more difficult.

New listings of homes for sale rose by 4.1 percent year over year for the four weeks ending Oct. 12, the largest increase in four months. This came amid buyers backing off from the market, real estate brokerage Redfin said in an Oct. 16 statement.

High sale prices and financial unease stemming from concerns about the ongoing federal government shutdown and tariffs have made many buyers wary of committing to property purchases, the brokerage stated.

Jo Chavez, a Redfin Premier agent in Kansas City, Missouri, cited elevated mortgage rates as another factor deterring buyers from the market.

“Even though rates have come down from their peak, a lot of people are waiting for sub-6 percent rates before they buy,” Chavez said.

Mortgage Rate Issues

The average weekly rate of a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.27 percent for the week ending Oct. 16, according to data from Freddie Mac. Since June, the rates have been mostly in a downward trend.

While the current 6.27 percent rate is lower than the 7.04 percent yearly peak in January, rates are still well above the levels seen during the initial COVID-19 pandemic period. For instance, five years ago, the rate was 2.81 percent.

In an Oct. 16 commentary, Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at real estate data company Bright MLS, suggested that the recent dip in mortgage rates may trigger more competition among buyers, pushing up home prices.

“Looking ahead to the rest of the year, it is difficult to forecast where rates will go, but the likely bet is that they are not going to fall much further,“ she wrote. ”Buyers who think they want to wait for lower rates could find themselves facing higher prices but without an improvement in mortgage rates.

“It is actually possible that mortgage rates could increase in the coming weeks. The Federal Reserve has been rolling mortgage-backed securities off of the central bank’s balance sheet, which could lead to upward pressure on mortgage rates.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 14:05

China Warns Trump To Avoid Crossing Four "Red Lines" Or Risk Trade Truce Collapse

Zero Hedge -

China Warns Trump To Avoid Crossing Four "Red Lines" Or Risk Trade Truce Collapse

Ever since the recent "truce" in the trade war between the US and China was signed in Korea one week ago - the latest of many such ceasefires meant to be broken - skeptics have been patiently counting down until this latest ceasefire is torn up, and tensions between the two superpowers flare up once more. 

Overnight China made it likely that they won't have long to count: as Bloomberg reports, Beijing warned the US to avoid four sensitive issues, so-called red lines, so a trade truce sealed between Trump and Xi can hold, highlighting the broad array of disagreements that will test ties. Of course, the one thing that is certain to prompt Trump to cross any and all red lines is knowing he should not do it... which is precisely why China is doing what it is doing. 

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Busan on Oct. 30

Ambassador to the US Xie Feng named i) Taiwan, ii) democracy and human rights, iii) China’s political system, and iv) development rights as Beijing’s four red lines, adding that “the most important thing is to respect each other’s core interests and major concerns.” 

Xie made the remarks in a virtual speech to a US-China Business Council event, according to a statement from the Chinese embassy on Tuesday. He added that “the pressing priority is to follow up on the consensus reached between” Xi, Trump and their officials, “to reassure both our countries and the world economy with concrete actions and outcomes.”

Whether it comes to conflicts over tariffs, industry or technology, Xie warned that “all will lead to nothing but a dead end” not like any of that stopped Trump before, which is also why the countdown until the next "100%+ tariff has officially begun."

The comments, Bloomberg explains to the front of the bus, offer a reminder of the many ways that the one-year truce reached on Thursday in South Korea can come undone. It also shows that while Taiwan’s status didn’t come up in talks between Xi and Trump, it’s still very important to Beijing.

And underscoring just how tenuous the current ceasefire truly is, is the fact that both sides are actively doing everything in their power to sabotage it. As Rabobank's Michael Every writes this morning, "all serious views of the recent ‘US-China deal are this is just a metaphorical ceasefire to (literally) rearm, not any ‘peace’, and it is when not if we get further escalation.

Supporting that view from one side, he writes that the White House just struck a $1.4bn deal with rare-earth magnet startups Vulcan Elements and ReElement Technologies. From the other, besides China introducing new export controls on silver, antimony, and tungsten, Nexperia’s China plant has told local firms that it can meet chip orders despite suspended supply from European fabs previously in the same group.

In short, it's now just a matter of time before we get another raging post on the president's Truth Social account, taking us back to square one. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 12:00

Trump Admin Redirects Tariff Revenue To Fund WIC As Shutdown Drags On

Zero Hedge -

Trump Admin Redirects Tariff Revenue To Fund WIC As Shutdown Drags On

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

As the federal government shutdown reaches its 35th day, the Trump administration has transferred $450 million from tariff windfalls to a nutrition program for women, infants, and children.

The funds, taken from a fund for agricultural commodity and disaster aid, were sent to the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) on Oct. 31, according to White House Office of Management and Budget records.

The money will be used for approximately three weeks of benefits for nearly 7 million pregnant or breastfeeding women, or other Americans with young children who use WIC for food, counseling, and support, according to the National WIC Association.

This latest monetary injection comes on the heels of a comparable move in mid-October, when the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) tapped the same tariff-derived fund, which has in it more than $23 billion from customs duties as of early October, for $300 million to keep WIC afloat for two more weeks. State agencies are set to receive the funds in the coming days, the association added.

Meanwhile, benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), or food stamps, ran out Nov. 1, the first time in the program’s 60 years, leaving nearly 42 million recipients without transfer payments as neither Congress nor the administration earmarked funds for them ahead of the shutdown, which started on Oct. 1.

The administration revealed Monday that it would use emergency funds in part to pay for November SNAP benefits. Certain states, however, may require weeks or months to fully distribute them.

USDA officials worried that funding SNAP could shortchange WIC and other programs specifically targeting low-income children.

“Creating a shortfall in Child Nutrition Program funds to fund one month of SNAP benefits is an unacceptable risk, even considering the procedural difficulties with delivering a partial November SNAP payment, because shifting $4 billion to America’s SNAP population merely shifts the problem to millions of America’s low income children that receive their meals at school,” Patrick Penn, deputy undersecretary for food, nutrition, and consumer services at the USDA, said in the filing.

In early October, the administration invoked Section 232 authority to send $300 million to WIC for temporary nutritional support for at-risk families during the funding standoff. The administration also moved to support farmer aid by reopening USDA offices despite the shutdown.

Judges have sided with the federal government amid agency pushback against the administration’s invoking its authority to deploy the funds. Two federal judges on Oct. 31 ruled that the USDA is required to tap emergency funds to disburse food stamps, dismissing the agency’s claims that it does not have enough resources. The orders noted SNAP is an entitlement program, which means the government is legally required to make payments to eligible households, regardless of whether the government is shut down.

Judges highlighted $6 billion in congressionally appropriated contingency reserves, such as $3 billion earmarked through fiscal 2026, that could be used to cover benefits, negating USDA memos that suggested the funds could not be used amid a government shutdown.

In a complaint filed on Oct. 28, numerous states alleged that the USDA’s reasons for suspending SNAP were misleading, arguing that “they offer no evidence that contingency funds are not available.”

The suit underscored irreparable harm incurred, arguing that states were paying added administrative costs due to the lapse in funding, and food banks were seeing a spike in demand. California, for instance, sent $80 million in state funds for pantries. Colorado sought $10 million and Minnesota earmarked $4 million in emergency aid, according to the filing. The states also argue that the payment lapse violates the Food and Nutrition Act.

“We anticipate the disruptions in SNAP may lead additional families to certify [for] WIC or families to run through their WIC benefits faster, so we will be keeping a really close eye on these resources because we know that WIC can’t fill the gap that SNAP plays for families,” said Nell Menefee-Libey, senior public policy manager at the NWA.

The administration has defended prioritizing WIC and child nutrition over full SNAP funding from tariff revenues, pointing to past shutdown strategies where SNAP continued without interruption.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 11:20

Trump Admin Redirects Tariff Revenue To Fund WIC As Shutdown Drags On

Zero Hedge -

Trump Admin Redirects Tariff Revenue To Fund WIC As Shutdown Drags On

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

As the federal government shutdown reaches its 35th day, the Trump administration has transferred $450 million from tariff windfalls to a nutrition program for women, infants, and children.

The funds, taken from a fund for agricultural commodity and disaster aid, were sent to the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) on Oct. 31, according to White House Office of Management and Budget records.

The money will be used for approximately three weeks of benefits for nearly 7 million pregnant or breastfeeding women, or other Americans with young children who use WIC for food, counseling, and support, according to the National WIC Association.

This latest monetary injection comes on the heels of a comparable move in mid-October, when the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) tapped the same tariff-derived fund, which has in it more than $23 billion from customs duties as of early October, for $300 million to keep WIC afloat for two more weeks. State agencies are set to receive the funds in the coming days, the association added.

Meanwhile, benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), or food stamps, ran out Nov. 1, the first time in the program’s 60 years, leaving nearly 42 million recipients without transfer payments as neither Congress nor the administration earmarked funds for them ahead of the shutdown, which started on Oct. 1.

The administration revealed Monday that it would use emergency funds in part to pay for November SNAP benefits. Certain states, however, may require weeks or months to fully distribute them.

USDA officials worried that funding SNAP could shortchange WIC and other programs specifically targeting low-income children.

“Creating a shortfall in Child Nutrition Program funds to fund one month of SNAP benefits is an unacceptable risk, even considering the procedural difficulties with delivering a partial November SNAP payment, because shifting $4 billion to America’s SNAP population merely shifts the problem to millions of America’s low income children that receive their meals at school,” Patrick Penn, deputy undersecretary for food, nutrition, and consumer services at the USDA, said in the filing.

In early October, the administration invoked Section 232 authority to send $300 million to WIC for temporary nutritional support for at-risk families during the funding standoff. The administration also moved to support farmer aid by reopening USDA offices despite the shutdown.

Judges have sided with the federal government amid agency pushback against the administration’s invoking its authority to deploy the funds. Two federal judges on Oct. 31 ruled that the USDA is required to tap emergency funds to disburse food stamps, dismissing the agency’s claims that it does not have enough resources. The orders noted SNAP is an entitlement program, which means the government is legally required to make payments to eligible households, regardless of whether the government is shut down.

Judges highlighted $6 billion in congressionally appropriated contingency reserves, such as $3 billion earmarked through fiscal 2026, that could be used to cover benefits, negating USDA memos that suggested the funds could not be used amid a government shutdown.

In a complaint filed on Oct. 28, numerous states alleged that the USDA’s reasons for suspending SNAP were misleading, arguing that “they offer no evidence that contingency funds are not available.”

The suit underscored irreparable harm incurred, arguing that states were paying added administrative costs due to the lapse in funding, and food banks were seeing a spike in demand. California, for instance, sent $80 million in state funds for pantries. Colorado sought $10 million and Minnesota earmarked $4 million in emergency aid, according to the filing. The states also argue that the payment lapse violates the Food and Nutrition Act.

“We anticipate the disruptions in SNAP may lead additional families to certify [for] WIC or families to run through their WIC benefits faster, so we will be keeping a really close eye on these resources because we know that WIC can’t fill the gap that SNAP plays for families,” said Nell Menefee-Libey, senior public policy manager at the NWA.

The administration has defended prioritizing WIC and child nutrition over full SNAP funding from tariff revenues, pointing to past shutdown strategies where SNAP continued without interruption.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 11:20

House Prices to Income

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: House Prices to Income

Brief excerpt:
One of the metrics we'd like to follow is a ratio of house prices to incomes.

Unfortunately most income data is released with a significantly lag, and there are always questions about which income data to use (the average total income is skewed by the income of a few people).

And for key measures of house prices - like Case-Shiller - we have indexes, not actually prices. But we can construct a ratio of the house price indexes to some measure of income.
...
RentThis graph uses the year end Case-Shiller house price index - and the nominal median household income through 2024 from the Census Bureau. 2025 median income is estimated at a 4% annual gain.

By this measure, house prices are 3% below the bubble peak, and about 9% below the recent peak.
There is much more in the article.

Voters Head To The Polls In The First Major Elections Of Trump's Second Term

Zero Hedge -

Voters Head To The Polls In The First Major Elections Of Trump's Second Term

It's election day - the first general election of Trump's second term. All eyes will of course be on New York City's mayoral race between Zohran Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo - with Mamdani vowing to squeeze blood out of rich New Yorkers to fund communist unicorn fart promises, and Cuomo earning the support of President Trump, Elon Musk, and others simply because he's the lesser evil. 

As the Epoch Times notes, New York voters will be voting on a variety of local offices, though one among them—the mayoral election—has attracted outsized international attention. Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani, since his upset victory in the Democratic Primary on June 24, has been leading the polls.

The latest major network poll by Fox News shows Mamdani with a 16 percentage point lead over Cuomo, who is running as an independent candidate. In that poll, Mamdani garners 47 percent of the vote compared to Cuomo’s 31 percent, while Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa has 15 percent.

The RealClearPolitics polling average favors Mamdani by 14.3 percentage points. Unlike its primary contest, New York City uses the first past-the-post system for general elections, meaning that, should Mamdani perform as polls suggest, he would win the election.

Virginia

Meanwhile, voters in Virginia will decide a gubernatorial race between Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger in a race favoring the Democrat.

Virginians will also elect an attorney general in a race between Republican Jason Miyares and Democrat Jay Jones - with Jones having wished death on Republicans in text messages, which several prominent Democrats defended. 

New Jersey

In New Jersey, voters will decide between Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli.

Ciattarelli was also the party’s nominee in the 2021 election and lost to incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, in a close contest.

Sherrill is ahead of Ciattarelli in the polls, but in recent weeks, the polling gap has significantly narrowed to the point where her lead is either close to or within the margin of error. The average of all major polls aggregated by RealClearPolitics shows Sherrill with a polling lead of 3.3 percentage points.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania voters will cast ballots for their state Supreme Court, where three Democrats facing recalls hope to retain their seats for 10 more years.

California

In California, voters will decide on Proposition 50, a measure which would 'temporarily' (lol) redraw the state’s congressional maps in response to changes made by Texas to its maps.

The referendum is backed by Democrats and seeks to temporarily bypass California’s independent redistricting committee and revise the state’s congressional district boundaries for elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, so as to win the party more seats in the next general elections to the House in 2026.

Due to the state’s heavy Democratic lean, the proposition appears likely to pass, with the “Yes” side garnering 56 percent in favor, according to a poll by the Public Policy Institute of California. It has a 13 percentage point lead over the “No” side of the vote.

Stay tuned for updates... and maybe grab a rare knife.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 11:05

The Lack Of All Econ Data Is Completely Irrelevant As Nobody Has Any Idea Where We Ultimately End Up

Zero Hedge -

The Lack Of All Econ Data Is Completely Irrelevant As Nobody Has Any Idea Where We Ultimately End Up

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Remember when it used to be about PMIs?

According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump officials torpedoed Nvidia’s push to export Blackwell AI chips to China, Secretary of State Rubio, USTR Greer, and Commerce Secretary Lutnick all opposing. On the other hand, the US will allow Microsoft to send Nvidia AI chips to the UAE for the first time as part of a vast ramp-up in data-centre and AI development there. It will find out if the UAE keeps hold of them or sells them on in time, as both the Philippines and the UAE apply to join the CPTPP, which China also wants in to.

The scale and speed of AI --and related energy-- rollouts is staggering. OpenAI just agreed a $38bn deal with Amazon, for example. However, Europe remains almost entirely absent from this process: is that part of a ‘strategic autonomy’? Tellingly, ‘The EU can’t figure out what to do about ChatGPT’, says Politico – and they don’t mean creating one, just regulating the existing version.

This surge in capex is inflationary, as data centers eat up resources and gorge on electricity. Indeed, as US Secretary of the Interior Burgum, speaking in the UAE, stated, “Trillions of dollars are going to end up in the places that have low electricity prices," the US has signed an $80bn nuclear reactor deal, Glencore plans to shut Canada’s largest copper metal operation over (electricity) costs, Australia’s Liberal-National political coalition, in place since 1923, may fracture over the Nats’ rejection of net zero or the Libs could follow, while China may have reached a “fission-based innovation poised to reshape clean, sustainable nuclear power” by ‘breeding’ uranium from thorium.

Yet AI is simultaneously deflationary if it means demand for workers --particularly younger ones already moving to the radical ends of the political spectrum-- collapses. The Financial Times just carried an op-ed arguing for universal basic capital, where every citizen is given a financial stake in AI firms to ensure social stability. (Though if nobody needs to work, how this differs from universal basic income is unclear: and is this a Speenhamland bare minimum or a Judge Dredd higher income which still drives people insane from a lack of useful work?)

The same deflation is true if AI is a bubble. That’s as the WSJ argues ‘The Microchip Era Is About to End’ because “The future is in wafers. Data centres will be the size of a box, not vast energy-hogging structures,” and asks, ‘Is OpenAI Becoming Too Big to Fail?’ because “Sam Altman’s ability to intertwine the startup throughout major tech players puts it at the nexus of a vital part of the US economy.”

Whatever happens next, whether the PMI was 0.1 or 0.2 higher or lower than the consensus guess doesn’t matter much. The good old days when a career in macro strategy could boil down to iterations of that coincident-commentary game is over: AI is already capable of doing it better.

Indeed, the irrelevance of most data is not only underlined by the fact that we don’t have key US releases at the moment --and it doesn’t make any difference to our understanding of where we ultimately end up--  but by developments in geopolitics and geoeconomics.

Trump said he doubts the US will go to war with Venezuela, but he thinks Maduro’s “days are numbered”. Why would that be the case if the US isn’t going to do anything? Meanwhile, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado was on social media underlining how juicy the resources in her country are, and how they will only be properly utilised under what sounds like US leadership. Try factoring that in to your forecasts.

At the same time, there are reports that the US is preparing troops for a ground invasion in Mexico to go after drug cartels: one would assume that this is in coordination with the Mexican government, where a local politician was just murdered by drug gangs.

In geoeconomics, all serious views of the recent ‘US-China deal are this is just a metaphorical ceasefire to (literally) rearm, not any ‘peace’, and it is when not if we get further escalation.

Supporting that view from one side, the White House just struck a $1.4bn deal with rare-earth magnet startups Vulcan Elements and ReElement Technologies. From the other, besides China introducing new export controls on silver, antimony, and tungsten, Nexperia’s China plant has told local firms that it can meet chip orders despite suspended supply from European fabs previously in the same group. Europe is only going to get its own chip supplies again as part of the deal that the US struck last week: the EU’s own statecraft failed to achieve anything. On which front, two pictures of the Trump-Xi meeting in progress have appeared on social media. In one, Trump is holding up a card to Xi, which we can only see the back of; in the second Xi is laughing. As somebody said yesterday, Trump may have written on it: “The EU will use their trade bazooka.”

The EU also thinks it may have been left out of China’s easing of export controls on rare earths. The US press release said last week’s one-year deal was global, but China hasn’t told Europe this is the case yet. If it isn’t then it will be easy to predict what the manufacturing PMI numbers will look like --like they did during Covid-- and no monthly higher/lower or econometrics, just geoeconomics, could have told you that was a possible outcome.

The humiliation gets worse for Europe in that the US is accused of “threatening EU diplomats” during its bid to kill new green shipping rules, in which it succeeded; relatedly, Qatar has reiterated if the EU does not water down its sustainability laws it will cease delivering LNG to the bloc; and left-wing parties in the EU parliament are going to challenge the EU-Mercosur free trade deal.

In EU politics, as Czech billionaire Babiš inches closer to PM, the FT op-eds that ‘The far right can win in Europe but it struggles to govern’ --then again, who doesn’t?-- and  that, “The continent’s political future could be defined by a never-ending struggle between the centre and the radical right.” But what does that mean for the PMI, please?

In US politics, there are new signs that after today’s elections, more on which tomorrow, the government shutdown may finally end, with Congress eyeing a spending bill through January. Of course, that could have an impact on the ISM, but it isn’t economics or econometrics at work.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 10:25

1 Million New Yorkers Say They Will Flee New York City If Mamdani Wins Today's Mayoral Race

Zero Hedge -

1 Million New Yorkers Say They Will Flee New York City If Mamdani Wins Today's Mayoral Race

A new JL Partners poll for the Daily Mail suggests New York City could face a historic population loss if democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani becomes mayor. Nine percent of residents would “definitely” leave—about 765,000 people—while another 25 percent would “consider” going, raising fears of an economic crisis.

Opponents of Mamdani describe a future city as a “disaster,” “hell,” “chaos,” “destroyed,” and “s***hole.” His supporters instead predict it would be “affordable,” “improved,” “hopeful,” and “changed.”

The poll found seven percent of those earning over $250,000 would move away. Since the wealthiest one percent fund roughly half of NYC’s income tax revenue, even a fraction leaving could “crater” the city’s finances.

Pollster James Johnson said the “prospect of Mamdani is so scary to some that they are considering throwing in the Big Apple for new digs.” He noted older New Yorkers, Staten Islanders, and white residents are the most likely to leave.

The Daily Mail writes that some real estate buyers are already backing out. Realtor Jay Batra said, “They don't want to hear about Mamdani and the rent freeze he is proposing.”

Cities like Boca Raton are preparing to attract fleeing residents and businesses. Mayor Scott Singer warned New York is “about to repeat some of the lessons from history that many voters have forgotten or never knew.”

The survey shows Mamdani leading the November 4 race with 45 percent among decided voters. By contrast, only 59 percent of New Yorkers say they would definitely stay if he wins.

Expectations for the city under Mamdani skew negative: forty-seven percent foresee more crime and violence, forty-three percent expect fewer businesses, thirty-nine percent think the terrorism risk will worsen, and forty-five percent predict antisemitism will increase. Housing affordability is his one strong point, with thirty-nine percent believing it will improve.

Mamdani proposes free childcare, rent freezes, public grocery stores, fare-free buses, and higher taxes on top earners and corporations. Critics argue this will prompt a business exodus similar to California’s losses. Former governor Andrew Cuomo says the agenda would “exacerbate the problem… flight from New York City by high-income earners.”

As Singer put it: “People are already preparing to leave before a Mamdani election. There’s less and less reason to stay there.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 10:05

High Food Prices Are Taking A Big Bite Out Of Restaurant Chains In 2025

Zero Hedge -

High Food Prices Are Taking A Big Bite Out Of Restaurant Chains In 2025

Rising food chain prices tend to dominate the news cycle these days as an indicator of overall inflation in the US, but less attention is paid to the damage these prices do to the businesses involved.  Revenues losses and location closures for these chains are ugly, to say the least, but what kind of bloodletting are we talking about here?

It should be noted that chain restaurants are a mainstay of the American diet.  Around 35% of Americans eat out at chains at least twice a week, but inflation in menu prices is around double that of grocery food items and staying at home has become a necessity for many US families on a budget.  

From 2019 to 2025, menu prices have increased by 30% to 80% depending on the company and the items.  McDonalds, for example, has seen prices spike by 40% on average since 2019, while sit down restaurants like Waffle House and IHOP are struggling with price jumps as high as 80% in the same time period.  

Popular burrito chain Chipotle has increased prices by 70% in the last five years, and the company has made headlines after their stock crashed 21% in the past week.

Wingstop has been hit hard with shares down 26.1% over the past year and 13.9% in October.   

Shake Shack stock is down 20.4% from a year ago.  

But stock losses are only the beginning.  At least 15 major chains have filed for bankruptcy in 2025.  There has been a 50% surge in restaurant bankruptcies (including independent restaurants) from 2024 to 2025.  Dining establishments account for 12% of all bankruptcies in 2025.  

Some of the biggest revenues losers include from this year include:

KFC with an estimated $250 million in losses.

Chipotle with $150 million in losses.

Popeyes with a $91 million net income drop.

TGI Fridays has $100 million in losses amid ongoing bankruptcy.

Hooters has up to $80 million in sales losses amid Chapter 11 filing.

Denny's with $40 million in losses.

Papa Johns with $30 million in losses.

Subway and Hardees are looking at $10 million to $15 million in losses as well as a widespread location closures.  

A number of chains are closing up locations at a swift pace and there doesn't seem to be any end in sight for the ongoing negative effects of covid era inflation.

Burger King has lost four major operators and is closing around 377 units.

Denny's with 90 locations.

TGI Fridays with 100 locations.

Jack in the Box with 120 locations.

Applebee's with 30 locations.

Hardees is closing 145 locations.

Wendy's is closing 72 locations.

Popeyes is closing up to 30 locations.

Up to 20,000 job losses are expected from restaurant closures in 2025, though these numbers do not account for the number of businesses leaving states like California after they instituted their $20 per hour minimum wage law for fast food workers.  

The persistent inflation pressures in food markets over the last five years is becoming a central point of contention for Americans on both sides of the political aisle.  It's one of the few things that the political left and conservatives agree on as a top priority for government intervention.  No one agrees on the nature of that intervention, however.

Democrats have suggested government subsidized (or owned) grocery stores with price controls.  Such stores have been tried in cities like Kansas City and failed miserably, but candidates like Zohran Mamdani claims that he can make them work in New York (it will be a disaster).  Price controls on food invariably lead to a collapse in food production as farmers and manufacturers lose profit incentives.  This causes food shortages, and even more price inflation.

Conservatives are more inclined to target the source of the problem, namely the Federal Reserve and its fiat printing operations to support government spending.  But some argue that the damage has already been done.  Auditing the Fed or shutting it down at this stage would merely act as a post-mortem on an economic murder that was committed years ago. 

Furthermore, the ongoing government shutdown proves that cutting almost anything from the budget is nearly impossible (even healthcare subsidies for illegals).  Achieving a consensus will be an impossible feat. 

If there is a solution at the federal level, then a subsidized increased in food production would probably be the answer, at least in the short term.  Boosting food supply across the board would help to outweigh demand and cut prices.  This kind of project, though, could take a couple years to organize, not accounting for the Democrat Party's complete refusal to compromise and work with conservatives.  In other words, restaurant profit margins will continue to shrink, prices will continue to skyrocket and closures with climb for the foreseeable future.    

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 09:25

High Food Prices Are Taking A Big Bite Out Of Restaurant Chains In 2025

Zero Hedge -

High Food Prices Are Taking A Big Bite Out Of Restaurant Chains In 2025

Rising food chain prices tend to dominate the news cycle these days as an indicator of overall inflation in the US, but less attention is paid to the damage these prices do to the businesses involved.  Revenues losses and location closures for these chains are ugly, to say the least, but what kind of bloodletting are we talking about here?

It should be noted that chain restaurants are a mainstay of the American diet.  Around 35% of Americans eat out at chains at least twice a week, but inflation in menu prices is around double that of grocery food items and staying at home has become a necessity for many US families on a budget.  

From 2019 to 2025, menu prices have increased by 30% to 80% depending on the company and the items.  McDonalds, for example, has seen prices spike by 40% on average since 2019, while sit down restaurants like Waffle House and IHOP are struggling with price jumps as high as 80% in the same time period.  

Popular burrito chain Chipotle has increased prices by 70% in the last five years, and the company has made headlines after their stock crashed 21% in the past week.

Wingstop has been hit hard with shares down 26.1% over the past year and 13.9% in October.   

Shake Shack stock is down 20.4% from a year ago.  

But stock losses are only the beginning.  At least 15 major chains have filed for bankruptcy in 2025.  There has been a 50% surge in restaurant bankruptcies (including independent restaurants) from 2024 to 2025.  Dining establishments account for 12% of all bankruptcies in 2025.  

Some of the biggest revenues losers include from this year include:

KFC with an estimated $250 million in losses.

Chipotle with $150 million in losses.

Popeyes with a $91 million net income drop.

TGI Fridays has $100 million in losses amid ongoing bankruptcy.

Hooters has up to $80 million in sales losses amid Chapter 11 filing.

Denny's with $40 million in losses.

Papa Johns with $30 million in losses.

Subway and Hardees are looking at $10 million to $15 million in losses as well as a widespread location closures.  

A number of chains are closing up locations at a swift pace and there doesn't seem to be any end in sight for the ongoing negative effects of covid era inflation.

Burger King has lost four major operators and is closing around 377 units.

Denny's with 90 locations.

TGI Fridays with 100 locations.

Jack in the Box with 120 locations.

Applebee's with 30 locations.

Hardees is closing 145 locations.

Wendy's is closing 72 locations.

Popeyes is closing up to 30 locations.

Up to 20,000 job losses are expected from restaurant closures in 2025, though these numbers do not account for the number of businesses leaving states like California after they instituted their $20 per hour minimum wage law for fast food workers.  

The persistent inflation pressures in food markets over the last five years is becoming a central point of contention for Americans on both sides of the political aisle.  It's one of the few things that the political left and conservatives agree on as a top priority for government intervention.  No one agrees on the nature of that intervention, however.

Democrats have suggested government subsidized (or owned) grocery stores with price controls.  Such stores have been tried in cities like Kansas City and failed miserably, but candidates like Zohran Mamdani claims that he can make them work in New York (it will be a disaster).  Price controls on food invariably lead to a collapse in food production as farmers and manufacturers lose profit incentives.  This causes food shortages, and even more price inflation.

Conservatives are more inclined to target the source of the problem, namely the Federal Reserve and its fiat printing operations to support government spending.  But some argue that the damage has already been done.  Auditing the Fed or shutting it down at this stage would merely act as a post-mortem on an economic murder that was committed years ago. 

Furthermore, the ongoing government shutdown proves that cutting almost anything from the budget is nearly impossible (even healthcare subsidies for illegals).  Achieving a consensus will be an impossible feat. 

If there is a solution at the federal level, then a subsidized increased in food production would probably be the answer, at least in the short term.  Boosting food supply across the board would help to outweigh demand and cut prices.  This kind of project, though, could take a couple years to organize, not accounting for the Democrat Party's complete refusal to compromise and work with conservatives.  In other words, restaurant profit margins will continue to shrink, prices will continue to skyrocket and closures with climb for the foreseeable future.    

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 09:25

Bias Towards Action (Illusion of Control)

The Big Picture -

 

 

October, far from being the scariest market month, was strong pretty much anywhere you looked. There are signs that the economy is slowing, but equity markets shrugged that off — Rate Cuts! — and racked up their sixth straight month of gains. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to just above four percent at 4.08%. Precious metals also hit new all-time highs; Year-to-date, GLD shares were up 66% (before pulling back 8.5%.) And the US Dollar was strong in October relative to the rest of the G10 currencies.

If you want to find reasons to be concerned, there are plenty: Valuations are extended, AI bubble chatter is everywhere; the market is concentrated at the top and increasingly narrow; there are some credit concerns and minor blow-ups; sentiment is ugly.

If today’s pullback has you concerned, be aware of your bias towards action: You want to do something — Anything! — in response.

This Action Bias is a cognitive foible that pushes you to act instead of think. You should be strategic in your planning, not tactical in your reactions. The goal is always to enhance your portfolio with high-probability decision-making.

That is not the result you derive from the bias towards action. Instead, it acts as a salve to reduce your anxiety as it gives you the illusion of control. Doing something makes you feel like you have influence over random events, which you decidedly do not.

If you have a plan and you follow it, you should be just fine. But be aware, this goes against millions of years of evolution that wants you to take action. We dislike inaction because it looks lazy and/or incompetent. The thinking is, doing something is better than nothing, even if that something is ill-considered and low-probability.

You probably shouldn’t do anything, but if you must do something, then consider these five things you can do that will satisfy your urge to action, but not affect your actual long-term investments:

Sell your speculative holdings. Many of us hold a few flyers, microcaps, and ill-advised tip stocks from our brothers-in-law. If you are truly concerned, consider raising cash in your Cowboy account, but leave your main portfolio untouched.

Look at Individual Stock Holdings: Many of us accumulate single stocks. We buy these for a variety of reasons, including on rare occassions, ones that actually come true. But I bet a lot of your single stock holdings were purchased with specific catalysts in mind that have failed to materialize. If you bought something a while ago waiting for a new CEO,  an analyst upgrade, FDA drug approal, M&A, a hot new product, or some other magic bullet — and it has yet to occur — then cut it loose. You can revisit it if you need to in the New Year.

Crypto: Sell your shitcoins now; if that doesn’t alleviate your concerns, consider reducing your Bitcoin/Eth holdings. I sold my Bitcoin last week; this wasn’t a market call or verdict on BITC, rather, I wanted some dry powder in case some opportunities opened up.

Sell Physical Gold: My wife has decades’ worth of broken bracelets, single earrings, clasps that no longer work, and jewelry she no longer wears. Over the past few months, we twice took a haul to our favorite local shop; we received one credit of $7,200, and another of $4,100. (Note to spouses: there is no free ride, and this will probably cost you more money.)

Update Your Plan: After run-ups of 16.5% in the S&P 500 and 23% in the Nasdaq 100, a down day of 1 to 2% should not make you nervous. Are you close to retirement, paying for College, or some other large financial expense? Perhaps your upset stomach is alerting you to the fact that your risk you have assumed and your immediate needs are not aligned. Consult with your advisor and review your long-term plan to determine if any adjustments are necessary. Note, this is not in response to market volatility but instead, your calendar and timing.

Making these modest changes will alleviate your desire to do something, but without having a major impact on your long-term plan.

To paraphrase the old line, “Don’t just do something, sit there.”

 

 

I discuss many of the biases we suffer from, and proffer suggested work-arounds, in How Not to Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth―and how to avoid them.”

It’s on sale at Amazon for -36% off: $21.19.

“Investment book of the year” –Stock Traders Almanac

“A thoroughly entertaining collection of short chapters that skewer experts, forecasters, the media and financial pundits.” –WSJ

 

 

The post Bias Towards Action (Illusion of Control) appeared first on The Big Picture.

Travel Chaos At Major Airports As Government Shutdown Reaches Record 35th Day

Zero Hedge -

Travel Chaos At Major Airports As Government Shutdown Reaches Record 35th Day

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

Federal aviation authorities implemented new ground halts at major Texas airports on Monday as the ongoing government shutdown drove air traffic controller absences to higher levels.

The deadlock on funding in Congress has seen operations delayed or stalled for 3.2 million passengers since the start of the shutdown.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) highlighted that acute personnel shortages were responsible for service stoppages in Dallas and Austin, with similar actions likely to be taken in Houston and Washington-area hubs.

By midday Monday, upward of 2,900 flights had been delayed or canceled, as the shutdown equals its record 35 days.

Approximately 13,000 controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration sentinels are working without pay to keep the air transport system open.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said that the department would impose a comprehensive airspace ground halt should the situation become unsafe.

“If we thought that it was unsafe ... we'll shut the whole airspace down. We won’t let people travel. We’re not there at this point. It’s just significant delays,” Duffy told CNBC.

The FAA documented on Friday more than 6,200 delayed flights and 500 cancellations. In New York, absences spiked to 80 percent, with Duffy attributing 65 percent of the postponements to air traffic controller shortages.

More than 3.2 million travelers were affected by the travel chaos, including 300,000 on Friday alone, according to Airlines for America, the consortium advocating for American Airlines, United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and JetBlue Airways, which quantified the aggregate toll.

United CEO Scott Kirby warned that the shutdown was affecting flight bookings and that airlines are growing worried about the coming start of the holiday travel season, echoing Vice President JD Vance’s similar sentiments about the shutdown’s effect on holiday travel, who warned it could become a “disaster.”

Duffy underscored that the vast majority of travel issues are due to the lack of air traffic controllers coming into work, but said he wouldn’t fire any, saying they “are trying to put food on their families’ table.”

“I am asking all of them to come to work,” he said.

Duffy has called on Democrats in the Senate to pass the Republicans’ continuing resolution to fund the government at current levels. Democrats say they won’t pass funding until Republicans agree to health care reforms.

“Yesterday saw another horrible record set: 84% of delays were due to staff shortages,” Duffy posted Monday on X. “If this shutdown doesn’t end now, air traffic controllers will receive another $0 paycheck.”

Many air traffic controllers have temporarily taken on second jobs, citing living expenses such as housing, child care, food, and gas as their primary concerns. Officials expect that number to increase the longer the shutdown drags on.

Monday’s delay comes on the back of a tumultuous weekend for air travelers. Newark Liberty International Airport saw ground delays of three-and-a-half hours on Sunday, representing half of nationwide flight cancellations.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 09:05

Travel Chaos At Major Airports As Government Shutdown Reaches Record 35th Day

Zero Hedge -

Travel Chaos At Major Airports As Government Shutdown Reaches Record 35th Day

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

Federal aviation authorities implemented new ground halts at major Texas airports on Monday as the ongoing government shutdown drove air traffic controller absences to higher levels.

The deadlock on funding in Congress has seen operations delayed or stalled for 3.2 million passengers since the start of the shutdown.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) highlighted that acute personnel shortages were responsible for service stoppages in Dallas and Austin, with similar actions likely to be taken in Houston and Washington-area hubs.

By midday Monday, upward of 2,900 flights had been delayed or canceled, as the shutdown equals its record 35 days.

Approximately 13,000 controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration sentinels are working without pay to keep the air transport system open.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said that the department would impose a comprehensive airspace ground halt should the situation become unsafe.

“If we thought that it was unsafe ... we'll shut the whole airspace down. We won’t let people travel. We’re not there at this point. It’s just significant delays,” Duffy told CNBC.

The FAA documented on Friday more than 6,200 delayed flights and 500 cancellations. In New York, absences spiked to 80 percent, with Duffy attributing 65 percent of the postponements to air traffic controller shortages.

More than 3.2 million travelers were affected by the travel chaos, including 300,000 on Friday alone, according to Airlines for America, the consortium advocating for American Airlines, United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and JetBlue Airways, which quantified the aggregate toll.

United CEO Scott Kirby warned that the shutdown was affecting flight bookings and that airlines are growing worried about the coming start of the holiday travel season, echoing Vice President JD Vance’s similar sentiments about the shutdown’s effect on holiday travel, who warned it could become a “disaster.”

Duffy underscored that the vast majority of travel issues are due to the lack of air traffic controllers coming into work, but said he wouldn’t fire any, saying they “are trying to put food on their families’ table.”

“I am asking all of them to come to work,” he said.

Duffy has called on Democrats in the Senate to pass the Republicans’ continuing resolution to fund the government at current levels. Democrats say they won’t pass funding until Republicans agree to health care reforms.

“Yesterday saw another horrible record set: 84% of delays were due to staff shortages,” Duffy posted Monday on X. “If this shutdown doesn’t end now, air traffic controllers will receive another $0 paycheck.”

Many air traffic controllers have temporarily taken on second jobs, citing living expenses such as housing, child care, food, and gas as their primary concerns. Officials expect that number to increase the longer the shutdown drags on.

Monday’s delay comes on the back of a tumultuous weekend for air travelers. Newark Liberty International Airport saw ground delays of three-and-a-half hours on Sunday, representing half of nationwide flight cancellations.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 09:05

Pages