On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.1% from March to April (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 5.2 percent from April 2024.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $724.1 billion, up 0.1 percent from the previous month, and up 5.2 percent from April 2024. ... The February 2025 to March 2025 percent change was revised from up 1.5 percent to up 1.7 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline was up 0.1% in April.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 6.2% on a YoY basis.

The change in sales in April were at expectations.

US Retail Sales Surprises To The Upside, But...

If BofA's omniscient analysts are right (and they have been serially on the correct side of this data series relative to consensus for months), then traders should brace for disappointment this morning for the retail sales data.

But...

For once, the BofA analysts were incorrect as headline retail sales rose 0.1% MoM (better than the 0.0% MoM exp, but this follows a sizable upward revision in March to +1.7% MoM (from +1.4%). With the revision that left retail sales up 5.2% YoY - near its highest since Dec 2023

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, Sporting Goods sales declined the most while Building Materials rose the most...

The (tariff front running) surge in Motor Vehicle Sales last month has gone...

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, this data is nominal, so adjusting ()very roughly) for inflation, retail sales rose 2.8% YoY, equalling its highest since Feb 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

More problematically, the Control Group - which feeds directly into GDP - was a big miss, dropping 0.2% MoM (vs expectations of a 0.3% MoM rise)...

Source: Bloomberg

So, the good news is bottom-up Americans are spending... but top-down GDP may be negatively affected.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 08:41

– by Joyce Vance @ Civil Discourse The stakes are high, even though the Supreme Court won’t be deciding, at least not yet, whether Trump’s order to end birthright citizenship is constitutional. Tomorrow (written on May 14), the Supreme Court will hear oral argument in the Birthright Citizenship Case, Trump v. Casa, Inc. We’re here because Donald […]

The post Does Trump Get To Decide Who Is An American? appeared first on Angry Bear.

The DOL reported:

In the week ending May 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 229,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 228,000 to 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 230,500, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 227,000 to 227,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 230,500.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were at the consensus forecast.

Zelensky In Istanbul Responds To 'Insult' Of Putin Sending Junior Officials To Talks: "I Am Here"

A team of Russian negotiators are in Istanbul on Thursday for the first direct peace talks with Ukraine in more than three years, with Russia's Foreign Ministry officials saying that the delegation is "ready for serious work".

President Putin, who as expected is not there in person, tapped his aide and former culture minister Vladimir Medinsky to lead the talks, which many Western analysts have claimed is an 'insult' given it's not someone more senior. Medinsky, it should be remembered, oversaw the failed 2022 peace talks with Kiev in the weeks after the February invasion.

Alongside Medinsky are Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin and Igor Kostyukov, the head of Russia’s military intelligence agency (GRU).

Supporting these main negotiators are group of advisers, including senior officials from the Foreign and Defense Ministries, along with Putin aides. The Kremlin confirmed the identities of its negotiating team by releasing footage of Putin meeting with the negotiation group late Wednesday.

On Wednesday evening, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting to discuss arrangements for talks with Ukraine, due to take place today in Istanbul, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters:https://t.co/hRmXK7daoA

Video: Kremlin. ru pic.twitter.com/1e7DHMlFgv

— TASS (@tassagency_en) May 15, 2025

Other top officials were seen present in the send-off meeting in Russia, among them Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Russia’s chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and Federal Security Service (FSB) Director Alexander Bortnikov - which perhaps underscores that Moscow is indeed taking the Istanbul talks very seriously.

But many are calling this a 'slap in the face' and insult to Trump who has strongly backed direct talks, and who even urged Putin to be there in person. 

Trump has warned that he is "always considering" additional sanctions against Russia if he believes Moscow is blocking or snubbing the peace process.

Putin sending the same people to Istanbul who, back in 2022, demanded Ukraine's surrender on his behalf is a slap in the face to the Trump administration’s efforts to end this war. The message is clear: fuck off — I have my own objectives, and they haven’t changed since 2022,… https://t.co/8Sj3mprJXe

— Sławomir Dębski (@SlawomirDebski) May 14, 2025

As for Ukraine's President Zelensky, he's has for the past week been making a big show of how he's willing to be in Istanbul, and Putin is not. He's been repeatedly goading Putin to be there, saying that if he's not - it proves Moscow is not interested in the peace process. 

However, this has clearly been a performative effort more geared to show President Trump that Kiev is 'willing' - likely in hopes that Washington gives Zelensky stronger backing, and of course a steady supply of weapons and intelligence. To some degree, Zelensky's bellicose rhetoric may itself have sabotaged talks before they had even begun.

But Zelensky has shown up in Turkey, somewhat surprisingly. "I am here" - he has emphasized (in once again a bit of messaging primarily aimed at the White House). He's meeting with Erdogan, but apparently this is separate, and happening in Ankara. 

Zelensky to Putin from Ankara:

"I am here." pic.twitter.com/67RjF4QFqb

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 15, 2025

The Wall Street Journal's take is as follows:

"Ignoring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s call to meet for direct high-level talks in Turkey, Russian leader Vladimir Putin dispatched to Istanbul a team of junior officials, making it uncertain that negotiations between the warring nations would occur at all."

But Russia analyst and author of Forged In War: A Military History of Russia From its Beginnings To Today, Mark Geleotti, has a very different take, featured below [emphasis ZH]:

It’s easy (and not wholly untrue) to slam Vladimir Medinsky, leading the Russian delegation to Istanbul as a nobody, but perversely, although I think it monstrously unlikely anything meaningful will come from the talks, the composition of the delegation is encouraging.

Putin was never likely to attend, not least as he wasn’t going to allow it to look as if he had been manipulated and dared by Zelensky. Besides, sometimes it can help break a logjam (think Reagan/Gorbachev), but leaders usually turn up to seal the deal at the end of the process, after experts have done all the hard preparatory work away from the cameras.

Do we honestly think two men who so plainly loathe each other and who have been shamelessly posturing for Trump's benefit were going to reach some kind of meeting of minds? Possible, but unlikely.

Medinsky led the talks in 2022 that failed to reach a usable deal (we can discount the myth that Zelensky was about to agree to Russia's demands until Boris Johnson nixed it) so this is meant to signal continuity in process and demands.

Medinsky's very lack of personal authority isn’t a snub, so much as a sign that Putin wants to manage any process by remote control. He's a human drone, which at least means any positions he advances/agrees already have VVP's ok

The rest of the delegation likewise isn't showy (though the presence of military intel chief Kostyukov is interesting as they were key in POW swaps) but likewise meant to signal a willingness to do serious work. (Although this doesn’t necessarily mean make necessary compromises).

Of course, with no hint that Russia is about to relax its implausible and unfair demands, this may all be for show. It probably is, alas. But talking is always good as there is a *chance*, however minuscule, that talks can lead somewhere.

So although Medinsky is a shallow ideologist, and sending him is in a way a snub, a means for Putin to try and reject Zelensky's challenge while not looking wholly uncooperative in Trump's eyes.

…whereas before I was 99% pessimistic about the talks, now I’m only 98% so. That is as much room for optimism as there is, these days.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 08:30

Futures Drop Ahead Of Data Deluge, Powell Speech

US equity futures are lower as investors take profits on Thursday and tech stocks fell as investors worried about an economic slowdown after Steve Cohen warned the chance of a recession is 45% and today’s retail sales numbers are expected to be a miss. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.4%, rebounding from session lows after Walmart reported solid earnings; Nasdaq futures dropped 0.5% with Nvidia, Palantir and Tesla falling about 2% in early trading.  On Wednesday, the S&P failed at 5,900 for the second consecutive day. The silver lining according to JPM is that yesterday, NVDA turned positive on the year, joining META and MSFT; if the remaining members follow suit, there is another ~10% upside to the index assuming positive members are flat. YTD, AMZN is -4.2%, GOOG -12.6%, TSLA -13.9%, and AAPL -15.2%. In trade news, China removed curbs on rare earth exports to the US. Trump says India is willing to drop is tariffs on US goods. Brent sank below $64, down more than 3% after President Donald Trump said the US is getting closer to a deal on Iran’s nuclear program, fueling concern that additional oil supply may pressure the market. Bond yields and the USD are lower. Today’s macro data focus is on Retail Sales which are expected to remain unchanged in April (versus 1.5% prior); PPI, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed and Empire Manufacturing numbers are due at 8:30 am in New York, while Industrial Production prints at 9:15am. Also, traders are looking ahead to a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

In premarket trading, UnitedHealth shares sank after the WSJ reported it’s under criminal investigation for possible Medicare fraud. Walmart delivered another quarter of solid sales and earnings growth, and cautioned that tariffs and increasing economic turbulence means even the world’s largest retailer can’t hold off on price increases forever. Shares gained 2.4% premarket. Magnificent Seven stocks are lower as risk appetite falters (Tesla -1.8%, Apple -1%, Meta Platforms -1%, Amazon -0.8%, Alphabet -0.7%, Nvidia -0.6%, Microsoft -0.5%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Alibaba ADRs (BABA) decline 5.6% after reporting revenue that missed estimates, dragged by a slowing international e-commerce arm and its Cainiao logistics business that’s under restructuring.
• Boot Barn (BOOT) rises 13% after the retailer of western wear gave a forecast for 1Q same-store sales growth that surpassed Wall Street estimates, despite an expected hit from tariffs.
• Cisco Systems (CSCO) rises 3.3% after the company gave a solid forecast for revenue in the current quarter, a sign the largest seller of networking gear is benefiting from demand for systems using AI technology.
• CoreWeave (CRWV) shares fall 6.6% after the cloud-computing provider’s quarterly profit forecast missed estimates due to some spending being brought forward.
• Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) shares are down 2.4% in premarket trading, after Mizuho Securities downgraded the software company to neutral from outperform.
• DXC Technology (DXC) shares are down 14% after the company reported forecast adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter and 2026 full-year guidance that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Dlocal (DLO) shares gain 21% after the financial technology company beat earnings expectations and unveiled plans for a special dividend.
• Foot Locker (FL) is up 84% with Dick’s Sporting Goods to buy it in a cash or stock deal implying an equity value of about $2.4 billion and an enterprise value of about $2.5 billion.
• JetBlue (JBLU) falls 1.6% after Raymond James downgraded the airline company to market perform from outperform, citing a more balanced risk-reward amid an improvement in sentiment.
• Luminar (LAZR) drops 13% after the automotive technology company’s CEO Austin Russell resigned as CEO, overshadowing better-than-expected first-quarter sales.
• NetEase ADRs (NTES) are up 6.7% after the China-based video-game company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations.
• New Fortress Energy (NFE) shares slump 38% after the energy infrastructure firm saw adj. Ebitda plunge in the first quarter, with analysts flagging that the sale of its Jamaican assets will dent cash flow.

There’s also some big company news to digest. Trump wants Apple to stop moving iPhone production to India, while Starbucks is said to be considering options to revamp its China business, including a possible stake sale.

Economic forecasters this week have said that while the Trump administration’s temporary trade deal with China has reduced the risk of a recession, the overall economy is likely to slow. “There’s definitely more clarity than a few weeks ago,” Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, chief of global markets strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Some of the uncertainty around trade, tariffs, policy started to get reined in.”

“The market is globally priced for perfection,” said Michael Nizard, head of multi-asset at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. “The retail sales figures should reveal that consumer is already depressed in terms of business confidence.”  

Meanwhile, billionaire Steve Cohen, speaking at the Sohn Investment Conference on Wednesday, put the chances of a US recession at about 45%. Cohen, the founder of hedge fund Point72 Asset Management, said he doesn’t expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates right away, because “they are going to be worried about inflation from tariffs.” He said he expects US economic growth next year to slow to 1.5% or less, “which is OK but not phenomenal.”

Looking at today's macro data, Retail sales are expected to rise by a tepid 0.1% in April (versus 1.5% prior) according to Bloomberg economists, while a survey of economists is pointing to flat month-on-month sales. PPI and Empire Manufacturing numbers are due at 8:30 am in New York. Traders were looking ahead to a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as well as data on manufacturing and retail sales, for the next readout on US growth and inflation. Economists are expecting no growth in retail sales in April as consumers cut back on some purchases. 

European stocks retreat for a second day. Energy stocks lead declines, driven by a fall in oil prices following a report that Iran is willing to forgo nuclear weapons in a deal with the US, while utilities and food and beverage stocks outperform. Among individual stocks, insurance firm Allianz drops after disappointing results. Stoxx 600 falls 0.2% to 542.88 with 327 members down, 263 up, and 10 little changed. Here are the biggest European movers:

• KBC shares rise as much as 2.6% after the Belgian lender reported earnings that analysts said were roughly in line with expectations, and saw a boost from increased insurance revenues.
• Engie shares gain as much as 2.2% after the utility produced what analysts said were strong results that should provide further comfort around full-year guidance and the dividend.
• Serco shares rise as much as 6.9% after the outsourcing-services company announced the award of three contracts with a combined value of more than £1b to provide maritime services for the Royal Navy.
• Watches of Switzerland shares rise as much as 6.7% after the watch seller’s update showed no deterioration in trends in either the UK or US, providing some relief to investors.
• Energy stocks are the worst-performing sector as oil falls following a report that Iran is willing to forgo nuclear weapons in a deal with the US in exchange for sanctions relief.
• Allianz shares fall as much as 3.9% after the German insurer reported earnings that analysts called disappointing.
• 3i shares drop as much as 8.1% following the private equity firm’s full-year results, with net asset value per share coming in marginally below analyst expectations.
• Deutsche Telekom shares decline as much as 1.2% after the telecom operator reported mixed trends in its home market Germany.
• Thyssenkrupp shares fall as much as 14% after the German firm reported what Morgan Stanley called a substantial miss. Analysts see challenges reaching full-year guidance.
• Orsted shares drop as much as 4.7%, to the lowest since December 2016, after Berenberg analysts cut their rating on the stock to hold from buy.
• Siemens shares fall as much as 4.4% after the German industrial group reported a solid set of second-quarter earnings, with analysts noting continued improvement for the key Digital Industries division.
• CVC Capital shares fall as much as 3.2%, with analyst saying that the buyout firm’s fee paying AUM for the first quarter disappointed as some funds reached the end of their fee-paying periods.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks slipped, poised to snap a four-day win streak, as the rally fueled in part by reduced fear over US tariffs fizzled. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.5%, with Toyota, and Sony among the biggest drags, as a stronger yen weighed on Japanese equities. Key gauges fell more than 1% each in Thailand and the Philippines. Tencent dipped despite upbeat earnings, weighing on key Hong Kong gauges, as investors await Alibaba’s results later Thursday. The market had been looking for major Chinese tech reports to provide the next catalyst. Despite the muted response to the US-China trade truce, some market watchers are turning more positive on Chinese stocks. Strategists at Goldman Sachs have raised their Chinese stocks index targets. Morgan Stanley said MSCI China’s onshore stocks saw “meaningful improvement” in the first quarter results over the previous three months, marking the first in-line outcome after 14 quarters of misses.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declines 0.3%.  The pound adds 0.2% with little reaction seen after UK GDP in the first quarter topped estimates as the period precedes a sharp rise in US tariffs.

In rates, treasuries are slightly richer across the curve with gains led by front end and belly, unwinding a portion of Wednesday’s selloff when Fed-policy pricing saw a hawkish shift. US yields are 2bp-3bp lower across maturities led by 5-year sector with 10-year near 4.51%. European government bonds also gain: bunds and gilts outperform, supporting Treasuries, following wave of European data including UK GDP and industrial production and French CPI. Slide in oil futures also supports Treasuries. US session includes April retail sales data and remarks by Fed Chair Powell on the central bank’s monetary policy framework review (text release expected at 8:40am New York time).

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures have pared a 4.2% drop to about 3.7%, extending losses for a second day after US President Trump said an agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear program is closer. Spot gold falls $11 to around $3,167/oz having pared an earlier fall.

US economic data calendar includes May Empire manufacturing, April retail sales, PPI, weekly jobless claims, May Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), April industrial production (9:15am), March business inventories, May NAHB housing market index (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Powell (8:40am) and Barr (2:05pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.4%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
• DAX -0.3%
• CAC 40 -0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.5%
• VIX +0.6 points at 19.2
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.3% at 1229.3
• euro +0.3% at $1.1208
• WTI crude -4.1% at $60.55/barrel

Top Overnight News

• U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States was getting very close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran, and Tehran had "sort of" agreed to the terms. The agreement would see the country foreswear highly enriched uranium in exchange for an easing of economic sanctions. RTRS
• U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that India had offered a trade deal that proposed "no tariffs" for American goods, while expressing his dissatisfaction with Apple's  plans to invest in India. New Delhi is seeking to clinch a trade deal with the U.S. within the 90-day pause announced by Trump on April 9 on tariff hikes for major trading partners. RTRS
• US officials seeking to negotiate trade deals around the world are not working to include currency policy pledges in the agreements, according to a person familiar with the matter. Foreign-exchange markets are on edge over concerns President Donald Trump’s administration is seeking a weaker greenback and might use trade bargaining to achieve that goal. BBG
• Trump asked Apple’s Tim Cook to stop plans to move iPhone output to India. The president said Apple will increase production in the US as a result of their discussion. BBG
• US authorities are preparing to announce one of the biggest cuts in banks’ capital requirements for more than a decade, marking the latest sign of deregulation agenda for the Trump administration. FT
• Trump says the US will upgrade the F-35 to an F-55; will do an F-22 super, an upgrade on the F-22.
• UnitedHealth shares dropped premarket after the WSJ reported it’s under criminal investigation for possible Medicare fraud. The company said it hasn’t been notified by the DOJ. BBG
• Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, could travel to Washington as soon as next week for a third round of trade talks with the U.S., two sources with knowledge of the plans told Reuters on Thursday. RTRS
• Ignoring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s call to meet for direct high-level talks in Turkey, Russian leader Vladimir Putin dispatched to Istanbul a team of junior officials, making it uncertain that negotiations between the warring nations would occur at all. WSJ
• Oil demand growth to slow according to the latest IEA report – “Global oil demand growth is projected to slow from 990 kb/d in 1Q25 to 650 kb/d for the remainder of the year as economic headwinds and record EV sales curb use.” IEA

Tariffs/Trade

• EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic says the US and EU have agreed to intensify trade talk contacts.
• WTO chief warned that US bilateral tariff deals could put trade principles at risk and said global trade was in a crisis despite the recent de-escalation of the US-China tariff war, according to FT.
• US Treasury secretary Bessent says they can accomplish "a lot" over the next 90 days; will have a series of negotiations to prevent escalation with China again.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were predominantly lower following the mixed handover from Wall St, where the major indices were somewhat choppy and small caps underperformed as yields edged higher. ASX 200 traded indecisively but eventually eked mild gains in the aftermath of the stronger-than-expected jobs data from Australia. Nikkei 225 underperformed following recent currency strength and as earnings results remained in the spotlight in Japan. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre amid little in the way of fresh catalysts to spur momentum, while Tencent shares traded indecisively post-earnings and Alibaba results are scheduled for release today.

Top Asian News

• Chinese President Xi hopes the Danish Chamber of Commerce in China and member companies will continue to role as a bridge between China and Denmark and between China and Europe, according to Xinhua.
• PBoC Governor Pan said China welcomes more outstanding Latin American market players to issue Panda bonds in China and share market development opportunities, while he added that China and Latin America should promote financial cooperation in a wider range of fields and a deeper level.

Subdued sentiment across Europe after the predominantly lower APAC handover, and following the mixed handover from Wall St, where the major indices were somewhat choppy and small caps underperformed as yields edged higher. Newsflow this morning has been light but earnings picked up, whilst current focus remains on geopolitical ongoings with US President Trump in the Middle East, consolatory language from Iran, and a likely no-show from Russia President Putin in Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Turkey. Sectors are mostly a defensive bias and in line with the cautious mood across the markets.

Top European News

• Plans for a reset of UK-EU relations hit trouble due to fishing rights and youth mobility as EU member states demanded further concessions from the UK, according to the FT.

FX

• DXY subdued and contained within Wednesday's confines amid a lack of fresh catalysts overnight, n a 100.58-101.05 range at the time of writing, within yesterday's 100.27-101.14 parameter.
• EUR ekes mild gains and trades on either side of the 1.1200 level after recent fluctuations, and with ECB speakers scheduled later, although data and speakers today are not likely to shift the dial much.
• GBP is slightly firmer following better-than-expected UK GDP data; GBP/USD resides within yesterday's 1.3250-1.3360 range.
• USD/JPY retreated overnight as the underperformance in Japanese stocks spurred some haven flows into the yen.
• Antipodeans are subdued in-fitting with the broader risk tone; mild support was seen in AUD/USD following the stronger-than-expected employment data from Australia.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1963 vs exp. 7.2217 (Prev. 7.1956).

Fixed Income

• Another contained start for fixed income with USTs marginally in the green while peers across the pond resided slightly in the red in the early morning.
• USTs at a 109-26 peak with gains of a handful of ticks. While firmer, the benchmark remains markedly shy of peaks from the last three sessions at 110-09+, 110-15 and 110-19+ respectively.
• Bunds find themselves attempting to make a footing above the break-even mark at the top-end of a 129.13 to 129.47 band.
• Gilts gapped higher by 17 ticks, before then slipping to a shortlived 91.02 low given the readacross from EGBs at the time. Currently, at the mid-point of a 91.02-22 band.
• UK sells (via tender) GBP 2.0bln 0.125% 2028 Gilt: b/c 3.52x, average yield 3.768% & tail 0.7bps

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are suffering losses of USD 2/bbl, with commentary surrounding Iran applying steady pressure overnight and through the morning so far. US President Trump said the US is getting close to a deal with Iran, and they are in serious peace negotiations, adding that Iran has "sort of" agreed to the terms of a deal. This constructive commentary surrounding the nation pushed benchmarks to fresh session lows, adding to overnight losses. Losses overnight also stemmed from geopolitics, following a report that Iran is ready to sign an agreement with certain conditions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and would commit to never making nuclear weapons and getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. The aforementioned lows for WTI and Brent are currently USD 60.65 and 63.63/bbl.
• Spot Gold is extending on recent losses with demand subdued as it sits below the USD 3,200/oz mark. The trend seen for most of this week remains intact, with the metal continuing to be hit by higher yields, particularly on the short end.
• Copper Futures are lower by a percent, mostly owing to a downbeat risk sentiment in APAC hours. It currently trades towards session lows of USD 9,467/t, after being modestly pressured around the time of Trump commentary.
• IEA lifts 2025 average oil demand growth forecast by 20k BPD to 740k BPD on upward revision to GDP growth forecast and lower oil prices; sees global oil demand growth dropping to 650k BPD for remainder of 2025, from 990k BPD in Q1. “Increased trade uncertainty is expected to weigh on the world economy and by extension oil demand,”. IEA sees oil inventories rising by around 720k BPD in 2025 as global supply rises expected to considerably outpace demand growth. IEA hikes 2025 global supply growth forecast to 1.6mln BPD, up by 380k BPD from previous month's report on higher Saudi production outlook. IEA raises 2026 average oil demand growth forecast to 760k BPD (prev forecast 690k BPD).

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russian President Putin was not on a list of negotiators the Kremlin published for talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday
• Russian Kremlin spokesperson Peskov says no chance Russian President Putin will take part in Turkey talks, according to Ria.
• US President Trump says he will go to the Russia-Ukraine talks if appropriate.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Qatar's PM said Israeli attacks in Gaza this week send a signal that they are not interested in negotiating a ceasefire, while he added that a US humanitarian plan for Gaza is not necessary and the UN should be allowed to deliver aid, according to CNN.
• Gaza Humanitarian Foundation announced it will launch operations in the Gaza Strip before the end of the month and stated that Israel has agreed to expand the number of distribution sites to serve the entire population of Gaza.
• US President Trump said Qatar is working with the US on negotiating an Iran deal and he wants to see Iran thrive.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran will not bow to any bullying from US President Trump who he suggested thinks that he can come to the region, chant slogans, and scare them.
• Iran is ready to sign an agreement with certain conditions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and would commit to never making nuclear weapons, as well as getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, according to a top advisor to the Supreme Leader cited by NBC News.- US President Trump says the US getting close to doing a deal with Iran; in serious negotiations to achieve peace; don't want to take a second step and threaten Iran. Want to end Iran in an intelligent way, not destructive

Geopolitics: Other

• China's Hainan Maritime Safety Administration warned of military training taking place in an area of the South China Sea from May 15th to 16th and prohibited entry, while it noted there were some drills near Vietnam and China's Hainan.
• Russia sent a fighter jet to "check the situation" as Estonia was attempting to detain a Russian shadow fleet tanker, according to the Estonian Foreign Minister; jet violated NATO territory for "around a minute".

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: May Empire Manufacturing, est. -8, prior -8.1
• 8:30 am: Apr Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0%, prior 1.4%, revised 1.45%
• 8:30 am: Apr Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.3%, prior 0.8%, revised 0.86%
• 8:30 am: Apr Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%, revised 0.56%
• 8:30 am: Apr PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.4%
• 8:30 am: Apr PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%
• 8:30 am: Apr PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.7%
• 8:30 am: Apr PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.1%, prior 3.3%
• 8:30 am: May 10 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 227.5k, prior 228k
• 8:30 am: May 3 Continuing Claims, est. 1890k, prior 1879k
• 8:30 am: May Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. -11, prior -26.4
• 9:15 am: Apr Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.3%
• 9:15 am: Apr Capacity Utilization, est. 77.8%, prior 77.8%
• 10:00 am: Mar Business Inventories, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 10:00 am: May NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 40, prior 40

Central bank speakers

• 5:00 am: 2nd Thomas Laubach Research Conference
• 8:40 am: Fed’s Powell Speaks on Framework Review
• 2:05 pm: Fed’s Barr Gives Opening Remarks

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The strong recent equity rally showed some signs of exhaustion over the past 24 hours, even though gains for the tech mega caps helped the S&P 500 (+0.10%) extend its gains since the closing low on April 7 to +18.26%. On the other hand, Treasuries came under renewed pressure with the 10yr yield (+7.1bps) closing above 4.5% for the first time since February as investors continued to price out Fed rate cuts and increased their focus on the US fiscal outlook. The moves added to the mixed performance across US asset classes since early April, with the S&P 500 now +3.91% above the pre-Liberation Day levels but 10yr Treasuries (+40bps) and the dollar index (-2.67%) having lost considerable ground.

Trump’s Middle East tour continued to generate headlines yesterday, but their market impact was narrower in comparison to Tuesday’s rally. One notable beneficiary was Nvidia (+4.16%), which moved back into the green YTD after the oil giant Saudi Aramco signed agreements of as much as $90bn with a slew of US companies, including with Nvidia on AI infrastructure. That helped the Magnificent 7 rise +1.75% on the day, while the NASDAQ was +0.72% higher. Elsewhere, more than $243bn of deals were announced during Trump’s visit to Qatar, with the White House saying this would lay the groundwork for a bigger $1.2trn economic pledge. This included a $96bn deal to buy up to 210 Boeing aircraft. Boeing’s shares closed +0.64% on the day, having been +3% intra-day after Trump announced the deal. The president is in the UAE today, so expect more announcements.

Outside of tech the equity mood was actually pretty weak, as the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 (-0.62%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.88%) posted visible declines. This weaker performance was also visible in Europe as the STOXX 600 (-0.24%) ended its four-day winning streak, with the DAX (-0.47%) and CAC (-0.47%) leading the decline. Among the reasons for a stalling of the equity rally was a relative absence of trade headlines, although Bloomberg reported that India’s trade minister is set to visit the US this week to discuss tariffs.

With the recent surge driven by US-China trade discussions waning, Asian equity markets are also losing momentum this morning. Across the region, the Nikkei (-0.98%) is the biggest laggard, with the KOSPI (-0.43%) also in the red. In China, the CSI (-0.58%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.42%) and Hang Seng (-0.25%) are moderately lower. The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.27%) is an exception in the region, trading higher. In the US, S&P 500 futures are -0.18% lower while those on the NASDAQ are near flat.

Yesterday’s more notable market milestones came for Treasuries, with 2yr (+5.1bps to 4.05%) and 10yr (+7.1bps to 4.54%) yields both closing at their highest levels since February. And the 30yr yield rose +6.7bps to 4.97%, its highest close since January and within touching distance of the 5% level it briefly breached on the evening of April 8, the night before Trump announced a 90 day delay to the reciprocal tariffs. So we are now reaching yield levels that previously seemed to trigger sensitivity from the US administration, though the recent moves are much more orderly than they were in early April.

The bond sell-off came amid an ongoing reversal in Fed rate cut expectations, with fed funds futures moving to price less than two cuts by year-end for the first time since February (-3.9bps to 49bps). That came as Fed speakers struck a measured tone, with San Francisco Fed President Daly saying that “the word of the day is patience” while Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that a “solid hard data economy is still there” beneath the recent noise.

Meanwhile on the US fiscal side, the Republicans’ planned economic package continued to take shape, with the House Ways and Means Committee advancing the proposed tax portion that included an extension of 2017 tax cuts, eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay and creating some new tax deductions, although some key issues such as the state and local tax deduction remain unresolved. The total of those planned tax cuts are well above the spending cuts that have been approved by other House Committees, so as things stands it looks improbable that the eventual package will deliver any meaningful reduction of the elevated US fiscal deficit.

The above rates moves come ahead of a slew of US data today, including the April PPI, where after Tuesday’s April CPI miss, we’ll be monitoring the categories that feed through into core PCE, while also watching for any evidence of tariff pass through into producer prices. Meanwhile, the April retail sales print will be watched for possible signs of pull-forward demand in response to tariffs, with April industrial production also due. Recall that while US sentiment surveys have seen a sharp weakening over the past few months, hard data have so far held up quite well.

The other notable market story yesterday were moves in the US dollar. The dollar index fell by as much as -0.72% intra-day following reporting that US and South Korea officials had discussed exchange rate policies at a meeting in early May. However, it recovered back to little changed (+0.04%) by the close following a Bloomberg report that US officials were not seeking currency pledges as part of ongoing trade negotiations. Still, there were notable gains against the dollar for the East Asian currencies, including the South Korean won (+0.88%) and Japanese yen (+0.50%). The won and yen are another +0.60% and +0.47% higher this morning. At a minimum, there is a sense that these countries may become more reticent to push back against their currencies appreciating than they have been in the past.

Turning back to Trump’s visit in the Middle East, yesterday the president said that Iran must “permanently and verifiably cease” its pursuit of nuclear weapons if it wanted to strike a deal with the US, while NBC reported that Iran is ready to sign an agreement with certain conditions. Brent crude was down -0.81% to $66.09/bbl on the back of ameliorating tensions, while gold fell -2.25% to $3,177/oz, leaving the precious metal on course for its biggest weekly decline since November.

Geopolitics will stay in focus today with Russia-Ukraine talks expected in Istanbul. The nature of any talks remains uncertain, with Ukraine’s President Zelensky calling for an in-person meeting with Russia’s Putin, but Moscow last night announcing a delegation headed by Vladimir Medinsky, a former Minister of Culture who led Russia’s talks with Ukraine back in 2022. Should the talks deliver little, a key question will be whether the US might join in announcing new sanctions against Russia which have been advocated by European leaders.

In terms of the day ahead, in the US we have the April PPI report, retail sales, industrial production, May Philadelphia Fed business outlook, Empire manufacturing index, initial jobless claims and more. We’ll also see the UK release its Q1 GDP numbers, with our UK economist expecting growth to have jumped in Q1 before reversing in Q2 (see preview here). Other data releases include March trade balances in Italy and the Eurozone. Central bank speakers include Fed’s Barkin, ECB’s Lane and BoE’s Lombardelli. The European Commission is also set to release their Spring Economic Forecasts.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 08:15

Foot Locker Shares Erupt On Possible $2.4 Billion Dick's Sporting Deal

Foot Locker shares erupted in premarket trading Thursday after The Wall Street Journal reported that Dick's Sporting Goods has agreed to acquire the struggling sneaker retailer for $2.4 billion, offering $24 per share in cash or stock—a nearly 90% premium to Foot Locker's pre-announcement price. Shareholders will have the option to receive either cash or 0.1168 shares of Dick's common stock for each Foot Locker share they own.

Dick's is the nation's largest sports retailing chain and operates Golf Galaxy stores across the US. The acquisition of the sneaker chain would allow Dick's to expand globally in 26 countries.

Number of Foot Locker stores worldwide as of financial year 2023, by store type (via Statista)

WSJ noted, "Dick's said it expects to operate Foot Locker as a stand-alone business unit within its portfolio and maintain the Foot Locker brands."

The move also parallels broader retail consolidation, following Skechers' recent $9.4 billion sale to 3G Capital, a private equity firm with a history in the consumer-goods sector, earlier this month. 

News of the acquisition comes as both Dick's and Foot Locker have been pressured by tariff-related retail headwinds, particularly in the sneaker space. 

Foot Locker shares plunged 41% this year due to weak sales forecasts and pressure from Nike's pricing changes but surged 84% in premarket trading in New York to around $23.70.

Foot Locker's float is 14.6% short - or about 13.6 million shares. Rough day ahead of the bears. 

Shares of Dick's in premarket is down 9%. On the year, shares are down 8.4% (as of Wednesday's close). The deal is the largest ever for the sporting goods retailer and aligns with Lauren Hobart's strategy to grow consumer engagement. 

Here's the first take from Wall Street analysts (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Lindsay Dutch

• Foot Locker is in the midst of a challenging turnaround, and may need a buyout from Dick's Sporting Goods

• "For Dick's, the potential $2 billion deal might strengthen its leading position in the $140 billion market at a discounted multiple of 0.3x price to sales, yet also increases reliance on Nike's assortment"

Morgan Stanley analyst Simeon Gutman

• "Greater scale and EPS accretion are potential positives, offset by a premium for a struggling chain"

• The initial reaction to the stocks may be tentative as sources of value creation not as obvious 

Truist Securities analyst Joseph Civello

• A  potential deal can create value for Dick's over the long term

• "FL's business has been under meaningful pressure over the past few years and we think a potential turnaround would likely be a long/ bumpy process"

Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe

• A deal makes sense given Dick's and Foot Locker's category overlap and Foot Locker's "recent diversification efforts"

• At $24/share it's a potentially positive offer for the Foot Locker stock

. . . 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 08:05

Port Optimizer – Control Tower Wabtec Corporation Shipping on the way to Los Angeles – Long Beach Docks. Container ships As you can see, there is a scheduled decrease. This could change dramatically in the next report. Port Optimizer – Control Tower Wabtec

The post Scheduled Container Ships appeared first on Angry Bear.

Jobless claims: more of the same  – by New Deal democrat After a long data drought, there are many releases today. I’ll start with jobless claims. Initial claims were unchanged at 229,000, while the four week moving average rose 2,250 to 230,500. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims rose 9,000 to 1.881 million: […]

The post Jobless Claims May 15 2025 appeared first on Angry Bear.

The Supreme Court will hear oral argument in the Birthright Citizenship Case, Trump v. Casa, Inc. May 15, 2025. Some history and argument . . . The arguments are not new. The willingness of an Administration to act on them are Jonathan H. Adler During the first Trump Administration, some of the President’s supporters urged him to […]

The post “it would grant citizenship to the children of those who “owe [the U.S.] no allegiance” appeared first on Angry Bear.

 – by New Deal democrat Now that we have April’s consumer inflation data, let’s update real wages for average American families. In April average hourly wages for nonsupervisory employees increased 0.3%, and aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory employees increased 0.4%. Since CPI increased 0.2%, in real terms wages (light blue) increased 0.1% and aggregate payrolls (dark blue) […]

The post Average and aggregate nonsupervisory real April wages continued to fuel the consumer appeared first on Angry Bear.

What GAO Found Since 2022, the President, with special authority from Congress, has greatly expanded the use of Presidential Drawdown authority (PDA). This authority is used to provide defense items from Department of Defense (DOD) inventories, such as ammunition and missiles, and services to foreign partners—especially Ukraine. From fiscal year 2022 to 2024, Congress used its authority to add billions of dollars to the $100 million yearly ceiling for PDA. From October 2021 through January 2025, the President authorized the drawdown of $31.7 billion of defense articles and services to Ukraine, and also used PDA to authorize more than a billion dollars in assistance to Taiwan and Haiti. In doing so, DOD and State have generally followed Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) steps for developing these PDA packages for Ukraine, Taiwan, and Haiti; however, GAO identified some gaps in guidance. Specifically, GAO found that DOD has not conducted Operations and Maintenance (O&M) budget impact assessments for the 21 packages GAO reviewed. These assessments have previously identified the adverse impact of diverting funds from other activities to support PDA packages. DOD guidance did not identify the purpose or specific elements of these assessments. In a 2016 report, GAO made a recommendation directing the Secretaries of the military departments to develop guidance that assigns responsibility for the preparation of O&M budget impact assessments and includes direction on how such assessments should be conducted as part of drawdown planning. However, the military services have not yet implemented this recommendation. Absence of this guidance may prevent DOD officials from making fully informed decisions, potentially depriving decision-makers of information about impacts of PDA packages on the services’ O&M budgets. While replacement funding is not traditionally provided to replace defense articles and services provided to partners through PDA, Congress occasionally appropriates funding for this purpose. DOD officials said they consider replacement needs when choosing equipment to provide to Ukraine. Since the start of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine, DOD has received $45.8 billion to replace equipment provided to Ukraine using PDA. Status of Obligations of Funds by Year of Supplemental Appropriation for Replacement of Defense Articles Sent to Ukraine as of November 2024 (dollars in billions) According to DOD officials, as of February 2025, DOD had planned to obligate all the remaining $45.8 billion of replacement funding and would require an additional appropriation to replace some defense articles and services previously included in drawdown packages for Ukraine. The replacement funding was a part of the five Ukraine supplemental appropriation acts, which provided $174.2 billion to help combat Russian aggression and to preserve Ukraine’s territorial integrity. DOD has not developed guidance that accounts for the potential that the services will need to replace defense articles provided through PDA, but DOD officials told us a draft instruction may do so. Adjusting or developing new guidance on using funds available to replace DOD equipment provided to partners through PDA would help ensure U.S. military services do not face greater than anticipated readiness impact. Why GAO Did This Study While presidents have used PDA numerous times since 1961, the way PDA has been used for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in 2022 is unprecedented. This report is one of several engagements we initiated in response to a provision included in the Consolidated Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2023, which provided resources for us to exercise oversight of the funding provided in the Ukraine supplemental appropriations acts. Further, a House Report accompanying the Department of Defense Appropriations Bill, 2024, included a provision asking GAO to review DOD’s execution of PDA and related funding and notifications since February 24, 2022.

Standards for Internal Control in the Federal Government (commonly known as the “Green Book”), sets the standards for an effective internal control system for federal agencies and provides the overall framework for designing, implementing, and operating an effective internal control system. An entity uses the Green Book to help achieve its objectives related to operations, reporting, and compliance. GAO updated the Green Book in 2025 to provide requirements, guidance, and resources to help managers better address risk areas related to fraud; improper payments; information security; and the implementation of new or substantially changed programs, including emergency assistance programs The 2025 revision of Standards for Internal Control in the Federal Government contains changes from, and supersedes, Standards for Internal Control in the Federal Government (GAO-14-704G) issued in September 2014. Key changes in this 2025 revision include the following: The need to consider risks related to improper payments and information security when identifying, analyzing, and responding to risks. Documentation of the results of risk assessments, including the identification, analysis, and response to risks. Documentation of a change assessment process for identifying, analyzing, and responding to risk related to significant changes so that the internal control system can be quickly adapted as needed to respond to changes once they occur. Two new appendixes that provide additional information related to control activities, examples of sources of data, and references to additional resources that management may leverage in designing, implementing, and operating effective internal control systems to address risks, including areas related to fraud, improper payments, and information security. Updates include an emphasis on prioritizing preventive control activities and highlighting management’s responsibility for internal control at all levels within the entity’s organizational structure, such as program and financial managers. Other updates were made to clarify the intent of the standards and to continue harmonization with the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission’s (COSO) Internal Control – Integrated Framework. The 2025 revision of Standards for Internal Control in the Federal Government is also available in a digital format. Effective Date The 2025 revision of Standards for Internal Control in the Federal Government revision is effective beginning with fiscal year 2026 and the Federal Managers’ Financial Integrity Act of 1982 reports covering that year. Early implementation is permitted. Revision Process Revisions of Standards for Internal Control in the Federal Government undergo an extensive, deliberative process, including public comments and input from the Comptroller General's Advisory Council on Standards for Internal Control in the Federal Government. GAO considered all comments and input in finalizing revisions to the standards. Why GAO Revised the Green Book Section 3512 (c) and (d) of Title 31 of the United States Code, commonly known as the Federal Managers’ Financial Integrity Act of 1982, requires the Comptroller General to issue standards for internal control in the federal government. This update is intended to help managers design and strengthen their entities’ internal control systems to address risks, including risks related to fraud, improper payments, and information security, and the implementation of new or substantially changed programs, including emergency assistance programs. For more information or for technical assistance regarding the Green Book, please e-mail greenbook@gao.gov. Visit GAO’s Green Book website for more information on applicable updates and alerts.

What GAO Found The Senate, in its capacity to give advice and consent to the President on appointing officers of the United States, must vote to confirm all nominations for senior military leaders, known as general and flag officers (GFO), that the President has approved. During the confirmation process, a Senator can object to approving nominations through Senate procedures, thereby placing a “hold” on them. When a Senator objects to a category of nominations, such as all GFOs, this is known as a “blanket hold.” Since 2014, GAO identified two occasions—in 2020 and 2023—where GFO nominations were on a blanket hold from Senate confirmation. GAO found that for 14 days in July 2020, a Senator placed a blanket hold affecting 42 GFO nominees; and for 10 months in 2023, a Senator placed a blanket hold affecting 447 GFO nominees. Due to the relatively short duration of the 2020 hold, this report largely focuses on the 2023 hold. Number of Individual General and Flag Officer Nominees on Blanket Hold During February to December 2023 In response to the 2023 blanket hold on GFO nominations, various former and then-current senior leaders within the Department of Defense (DOD) issued statements mentioning risks to national security. For example, a group of former Secretaries of Defense who served in bipartisan administrations wrote that the hold sent the wrong message to adversaries. Further, senior DOD leaders expressed concerns about potential impacts to service members and their families as a result of the hold. GAO did not find challenges to unit-level readiness—that is, individual military units’ ability to meet missions—from the 2023 hold, based on analysis of key DOD reports and meeting with a DOD official involved in readiness oversight. Specifically, upon reviewing 2023 and 2024 readiness reports that DOD submitted to Congress, GAO did not find that DOD had identified the 2023 hold as a readiness challenge. GAO found that the 2023 hold disrupted the standard flow of leadership across the department, as well as the military promotion cycle and pay for some of the nominated officers. For example, the hold affected some of the officers’ ability to accrue time-in-grade requirements—specified amounts of time that GFOs must spend in a grade before they are eligible for promotion. The 2023 hold also affected some military families. According to DOD officials, some families were not able to move to planned duty stations, enroll children at their next schools on time, or start new spousal employment opportunities. In some instances, GFOs also sold their homes, lived in temporary housing, and paid for storage out of their own pocket. In contrast, some families experienced limited impact, such as National Guard GFO nominees who did not require moves to new duty stations. GAO found that DOD mitigated effects of the 2023 hold through proceeding with planned assignments for some officers, deferring retirements, and having senior civilian executives or other GFOs serve in acting capacities. Specifically, in some instances, incumbent heads of organizations were asked to remain in place until their successor had been confirmed. In other instances, individuals who were in the normal line of succession, such as deputies, stepped into the head role in an acting capacity. Why GAO Did This Study GFOs are the senior military leaders within DOD who plan and implement U.S. military operations across the domains of land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. They also have high-level interagency, intergovernmental, and multinational responsibilities. According to the Secretary of Defense, prompt transitions of confirmed military leaders are necessary for the United States’ security. GAO was asked to review issues surrounding past Senate holds on GFO nominations. This report describes effects on military readiness, leadership continuity, nominated officers, and military families as a result of past Senate blanket holds on GFO nominations, and the steps DOD took to mitigate the effects of the holds. To conduct this work, GAO reviewed DOD guidance and related laws and regulations. GAO also reviewed congressional documents to identify the universe of blanket holds that occurred within the last 10 years and analyzed data on Congress.gov to identify and derive summary characteristics of the GFOs affected by holds. In addition, GAO reviewed or assessed relevant DOD reports, documents, and public statements of senior DOD leaders, and interviewed DOD officials. Further, GAO reached out to 12 senior DOD civilian and military leaders to offer them an opportunity to provide additional information. They declined or did not respond to GAO’s offer. For more information, contact Diana Maurer at maurerd@gao.gov.

Germany Wind Power Firms Face Millions In Losses As Wind Speed Drops To 50-Year Low

By ReMix News

In many ways, Germany’s wind power revolution has been a success, with wind power serving as the country’s largest source of electricity. However, the current wind lull over the last three months has led to an extreme dip in energy production, which is costing firms millions in losses.

The wind speed average has dropped below less than 5.5 meters per second in the first quarter of 2025, according to German Meteorological Service (DWD). The last time the country saw such low speeds was in 1972 and 1973, and before that, in 1963.

Wind energy producers have been hit hard. For example, PNE, a wind farm operator in Coxhaven, showed revenue dropped to €27.9 million from €31.4 million the previous year, but perhaps more importantly, it went from an operating profit of €1.1 million in the first quarter to a loss of €7.1 million, according to Welt.

The company indicated that there was 31 percent less electricity generated nationwide in the first quarter of the year than in the same period last year, according to data from the German Energy and Water Industry Association (BDEW).

However, it should be noted that April 2024 and 2022 saw much higher wind speeds than previous years, so comparing 2024 to 2025 makes this drop look even more extreme. Experts say there is no evidence of climate change being at work, noting that previous decades have had similar lulls in wind speed.

Germany experienced so-called “dark lulls” over the winter, featuring little sunlight and low wind speed, which led to extremely high prices. Germany imported energy from neighboring countries and turned to conventional power plants in response.

Former Economic Minister Robert Habeck of the Greens had already planned to provide incentives to build 40 large gas-fired plants by 2030 to deal with fluctuations in wind and solar energy. These gas plants had a number of climate protections allegedly built in, such as being able to be switched to hydrogen at some point in the future.

The grid is also at risk due to renewable energy in some instances, especially during holidays when there is less power demand. Solar power cannot be regulated by grid operators, which means that when there is too much electricity and not enough sources that need it, the grid is pushed to its limit. The previous German government, at the urging of grid operators, implemented the PV Peak Act to deal with surplus solar power production.

The average share of solar power energy in 2023 was 31.5 percent, with coal-fired plants in second, at 22.5 percent.

Renewables make up an increasingly large share of Germany’s energy profile, which supporters say reduces reliance on foreign countries such as Russia while also reducing carbon emissions. Critics, on the other hand, say wind power has harmed energy security and also presents a number of environmental risks to wildlife and even forests.

However, it is not just countries like Germany turning to renewables. Conservative governments, including Hungary’s, are also increasingly shifting to wind and especially solar, where it is one of Europe’s leaders.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 07:20

What GAO Found For most of the last 20 years, regulations issued by federal agencies have been subject to some version of administrative pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) requirements. Agencies were required to propose potential offsets to certain estimated increases in direct spending (also called mandatory spending) resulting from regulatory actions. In January 2021, President Biden revoked these requirements. In June 2023, the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 reinstated similar administrative PAYGO requirements. GAO found that four rules published during the time frame when no requirements were in place could have been subject to offset reporting requirements had they been in place at the time. Most rules estimated increased federal costs of less than $1 billion in the first 10 years and therefore would have been exempt. GAO's Analysis of Rules That Could Have Been Subject to 2023 Administrative Pay-As-You-Go Provisions GAO reviewed the 28 major rules published in the first 5 months following enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023. GAO found the range of federal costs agencies estimated to be $0 to $156 billion, with half of the 28 rules estimating no federal cost. According to Office of Management and Budget (OMB) staff, none of the 28 rules were ultimately subject to administrative PAYGO requirements because they did not increase direct spending above the law's thresholds or they received a waiver. OMB issued guidance and reviewed agency compliance with administrative PAYGO requirements through its established regulatory review process. OMB was responsible for assisting agencies in determining how the act applied to a rule, if a rule might be exempt or eligible for a waiver, and the required reporting. Why GAO Did This Study The Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, enacted on June 3, 2023, reinstated certain administrative PAYGO requirements, which then expired on December 31, 2024. January 2021 to June 2023 was the only period between 2005 and 2024 when administrative PAYGO requirements did not exist in any form. GAO was asked to review the effects of the administrative PAYGO provisions of the 2023 act. This report reviews (1) how many rules published between January 20, 2021, and June 3, 2023, could have been subject to the requirements of the act; (2) the estimated costs of the 28 major rules published in the first 5 months of the act; and (3) OMB's process for monitoring agencies' compliance with administrative PAYGO requirements under the act. For the first objective, GAO analyzed rules and related documentation to determine whether they would have been subject to the act. When additional information was needed, GAO contacted the relevant agency to request that information. For the second objective, GAO reviewed economic analyses and summarized the federal cost estimates for each of the 28 major rules. For the third objective, GAO reviewed relevant laws, executive orders, and OMB guidance. GAO also interviewed OMB staff about their process for ensuring compliance with administrative PAYGO requirements. For more information, contact Yvonne D. Jones at jonesy@gao.gov.

What GAO Found Pilots and flight attendants (crewmembers) who are lactating may work long shifts and, as a result, may need to express breast milk while on duty. In 2024, 10 percent of U.S. commercial pilots, and 79 percent of U.S. commercial flight attendants, were female. In accordance with Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) regulations, pilots at large U.S.-based airlines may be scheduled for flight time of up to 8 hours between rest periods, while flight attendants may be on duty for as long as 14 hours. Representatives of selected airlines identified the use of wearable, battery-operated breast pumps as one option available to lactating crewmembers while in flight. Other options available to lactating crewmembers include pumping in airport lactation facilities between flights and taking extended leave to delay the return to work after childbirth, according to the representatives. According to labor unions representing airline crewmembers, crewmembers may face several barriers to expressing breast milk upon returning to work. For example, crewmembers are only allowed to pump during noncritical phases of flight or between flights, neither of which may provide sufficient time to do so. Barriers to Expressing Breast Milk That Airline Crewmembers May Face FAA and selected airlines have leveraged existing processes to address safety implications of crewmembers' use of breast pumps on aircraft. In January 2025, FAA issued an informational document to airlines that identifies FAA regulations, procedures, and guidance applicable to crewmembers' onboard pumping, including how airlines can determine the safety of wearable breast pumps. This document advises airlines to consider and assess potential safety risks, such as effects on crewmembers' ability to carry out their safety duties, and whether pumps that use wireless technology could interfere with aircraft navigation and communications systems. GAO found that three of the eight largest airlines have used existing risk management processes to assess safety risks associated with crewmembers' use of breast pumps and establish policies to address identified risks. These airlines require, for example, that breast pumps be wearable and hands-free, and that crewmembers not use the pumps during certain flight times, such as takeoff and landing. Representatives of one airline told GAO they had used the FAA informational document to update their internal practices, while three other airlines told GAO they were planning to do so. The eighth airline did not allow crewmembers to express breast milk while on flight duty. Why GAO Did This Study Leading health organizations recommend that women breastfeed for at least 12 months. Yet many women find that returning to work can be a significant barrier to breastfeeding. Although U.S. workers generally have federal protections for breastfeeding in the workplace, the PUMP for Nursing Mothers Act expressly excludes airline crewmembers from its protections. Crewmembers are therefore largely dependent on the lactation accommodations, if any, their employer chooses to provide. The Senate report accompanying the fiscal year 2024 Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Appropriations Bill includes a provision for GAO to examine barriers to women in the airline industry, such as lactation accommodations for crewmembers. This report examines (1) options for crewmembers to express breast milk that airlines have identified, (2) barriers to expressing breast milk that labor unions representing airline crewmembers have identified, and (3) how FAA and selected airlines have addressed potential safety implications of airlines' lactation accommodations for crewmembers. GAO reviewed FAA documents, including requirements on airline safety management and guidance; interviewed FAA officials; and conducted semi-structured interviews with representatives of the eight largest U.S. commercial airlines, based on operating revenues and total employment, and seven labor union associations representing crewmembers of these airlines. For more information, contact Danielle Giese at GieseD@gao.gov.

I do not believe there is any policy which will be successful when the environment changes like the direction of the wind due to kneejerk reactions of the presidency. Inflation did decrease by one tenth of one percent. But then is 2.3 or 2.4% really high? What has had a greater impact on the economy […]

The post The FED and Inflation appeared first on Angry Bear.

Harvard Tops America's Largest University Endowments (For Now)

University endowments held more than $870 billion in assets last year, largely dominated by America’s elite institutions.

While Harvard, Yale, and Stanford have amassed tens of billions in assets, the median endowment stands at $243 million across 658 institutions.

Overall, endowment assets increased by 4% in 2024 driven by donations and investment returns.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows the largest university endowments in America, based on data from the NACUBO via College Transitions.

Harvard Leads Nationally

As the largest university endowment worldwide, Harvard boasts a number of wealthy donors including Michael Bloomberg and hedge fund billionaire John Paulson.

After the Trump administration froze billions in grants and funding, it raised $1.1 million across more than 4,000 online donations in the first two days after stating it would push back against their demands. Overall, the fund holds $52 billion in assets, as shown in the table below:

As we can see, the University of Texas System is the only public university endowment ranking in the top five.

In fact, UT Austin is among the few universities that has invested in Bitcoin, along with Stanford and Brown. While endowments typically avoid riskier investments, they are increasingly allocating funds into cryptocurrency thanks to regulatory factors.

Overall, a number of elite institutions have the largest endowments nationally, including Stanford (#4) and Princeton (#5).

How Do University Endowments Spend Their Assets?

While university’s hold significant endowment funds, much of the assets are designated for a specific purpose, such as scholarships.

At the same time, these assets are often invested in illiquid assets such as real estate and hedge funds. As a result, it can be damaging to sell these at a loss if universities face a funding shortfall.

Below, we show how $30 billion in endowment funds were spent during fiscal year 2024:

Overall, nearly half of spending went toward student financial aid, with some of the largest endowments such as Stanford and Harvard covering 100% of students financial aid requests.

Academic research was the second-highest category, at 18%, followed by endowed faculty positions, at 11%. Specifically, these positions are funded by endowment donations over a number of years. Finally, facilities operation and management accounted for the smallest share, at 7% overall, covering renovations and building repairs.

To learn more about this topic from a global perspective, check out this graphic on the top universities outside of America.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 06:55

UK Farmers Fear For Bioethanol Market Following US Trade Deal

Via City AM,

• A recent trade deal between the UK and the US has led to the removal of tariffs on American bioethanol, which British farmers fear will undermine their domestic market.

• Concerns exist among beef farmers that the deal will result in increased American beef imports, leading to unfair competition and impacting their livelihoods.

• The trade agreement has sparked widespread scepticism among British farmers regarding the government’s commitment to protecting their interests and the future of the agricultural sector.

Ministers and commentators heralded the UK’s trade deal with the United States as a political coup that will save thousands of jobs at British automakers. But changes to beef and bioethanol trade rules have left an already bruised agricultural sector fearing the worst, writes Ali Lyon.

When he’s not slavishly editing clips for the hundreds of thousands of people that subscribe to his Youtube channel, Olly Harrison has the not insignificant job of running 1,500 acres of farmland.

But as his impressively regular feed of videos illustrates, tending to that land – and trying to eke out a semblance of profit from it – has become a difficult, bordering on impossible task, as headwind after headwind hit his arable holding near Liverpool.

“It’s been rubbish,” he tells City AM, still dealing with the aftermath of what was England’s driest April on record. 

“We’ve had extremes of weather, which has been very wet or – like now – very dry.”

Added to recent years’ inhospitable climes, are the input costs for producing the wheat his family has grown for five generations. They have, he says, remained at the elevated prices sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, the price he is able to secure for his end product has fallen by as much as 40 per cent since those 2022 supply-constraint-induced highs.

But it is another, more recent, external shock that has Harrison especially worried. One that, while niche and esoteric, could kibosh the safety net he and his fellow British arable farmers have traditionally fallen back on when the wholesale wheat price drops too low.

Bioethanol: The little-known safety net of arable farmers

“The bioethanol market in the UK – for wheat – is quite big,” Harrison says.

“It’s basically the floor in the market.”

Opening up the UK and US’s agricultural markets to more trade was a key football in the frenzied negotiations that helped the Starmer administration become the first country in the world to secure a trade deal with America since 2 April’s ‘Liberation Day’.

And to spur the States’ capricious President into bringing down painful tariffs on Britain’s export industries like automakers and plane parts, the government agreed to lower its own levies on a selection of American agriculture products; namely beef and the fuel.

The beef tariffs were reduced only on imports that subscribed to the UK’s world-leading food standards, leading some in the farming community to breathe a partial sigh of relief. But the bioethanol concessions – which saw the UK’s 19 per cent tariff abolished completely – contained no such caveats to protect our sizeable domestic industry. That decision has already sparked warnings from key figures involved in domestic bioethanol production that their sector could be facing extinction.

“Bioethanol, for me, is the watch area,” Tom Bradshaw, president of the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) tells City AM.

“I have been speaking to the bioethanol manufacturing sector… and we think [these changes] probably make it unviable.”

The prognosis from Bradshaw – whose assiduous campaigning around the recent inheritance tax reforms has already made him a regular thorn in the government’s side – was echoed by the UK’s two largest bioethanol producers over the weekend.

The chief executive of London-listed AB Foods’ sugar division, Paul Kenward, and Grand Pearson, the chairman of Ensus, both warned in a joint intervention their “strategically essential sector” was under an “existential threat”.

All of which has left Harrison worried about what it will do to demand for his product. “If they can now bring it [ethanol] in from the States – using wheat that’s grown a lot cheaper than we can because they get a lot more support off their government, using technologies that we can’t, from farms that have got scale that we haven’t – then that’s seriously undermining a sector that’s already on its knees,” he says.

A hollowed out bioethanol sector also poses the risk of some unsavoury knock-on effects for livestock farmers, the very area of agriculture that the government sought to protect during its negotiations.

Because just as Unilever sources its ingredients for Marmite from breweries – and the byproducts produced in the fermenting process – bioethanol producers sell one of their own high-protein outputs as feed for cows.

As Bradshaw summarises: “If they’re not making bioethanol, we won’t get that animal feed.”

Yet more farmer beef

The feed supply issue is just one of several fears that Joe Seels, a Yorkshire-based beef farmer, has for his livelihood as the dust settles on the trade deal.

The NFU’s Bradshaw went to lengths to praise the government for maintaining standards in the face of US pressure. But for Seels, who documented his attendance at the string of protests in London around the changes to inheritance tax on his own Youtube channel, the deal represents yet another example of British agriculture being the fall industry to fix problems elsewhere in the economy.

His primary concern is that there will now be a glut of beef supply in the UK, without the same opportunities to export to the US. Because while the deal ostensibly brings down barriers to trade both ways – both countries agreed to accept 13,000 metric tonnes of beef imports each other each year tariff free – Seels can’t imagine a world in which American food producers buy British.

“I’m really sceptical that it will open up new export avenues,” he says. 

“Being American is eating American beef, they won’t accept ours which will be at a premium to [the hormone-aided beef] in their market.”

While the challenging trade environment in the US will persist, British farmers, he adds, will now face stiff competition from the low-cost American beef that will now be available at home.

Consumers and supermarkets are likely to continue to prefer domestically produced beef. Despite other large beef producing nations having access to the UK market, shoppers overwhelmingly prefer meat produced domestically or in Ireland. Senior figures in retail believe that the ubiquity and salience of farm labelling – from the ‘red tractor’ signifier of food standards to the regular sight of union-jack adorned packaging – mean shoppers are unlikely to find American meat in supermarket aisles.

Where Seels and Bradshaw imagine the influx of American beef will be felt, however, is catering and hospitality, where choice is constricted and labelling is less prominent.

“They [the US] have got less red tape, fewer planning restrictions, and their farming operations are just on a huge scale, which all leads to being able to create a product that’s much cheaper,” says Seels.

“We won’t see that on shelves,” he adds, “but where this beef might have a market is food services.”

Ministers have been at pains to trumpet the deal’s positive impact on livestock farmers, many of whom have long feared the spectre of chlorinated chicken and hormone beef being a concession in wider UK-US trade talks. But years of feeling let down by successive governments, mean farmers remain fearful of what the future holds.

“I have no faith whatsoever that the government will protect our interests in future negotiations,” says Harrison. 

"They’re just giving us another kick every time, and not realising how vulnerable the farming sector is.”

That scepticism is shared by Seels, who like Harrison is also a popular farming video blogger and has previous in using his channels to vent at political decision making.

“This government has said things to us in the past that it wasn’t going to do then it’s turned around and changed its mind,” he says.

If it does so again, ministers can expect the vitriolic response comprising more than just a few fiercely worded Youtube videos.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 06:30