Too Late? Nervous Banking Lobby Fights To Change GENIUS Act

Authored by Aaron Wood via CoinTelegraph.com,

The US banking lobby isn’t keen on interest-bearing stablecoins or their supposed challenge to financial systems — but it may be too late to amend these “loopholes” in the GENIUS Act.

The Banking Policy Institute (BPI), an advocacy group for the banking industry led by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, wrote a letter to Congress last week, arguing that stablecoins present a risk to existing credit systems. 

The BPI urged regulators to close supposed loopholes in the GENIUS Act, a new law regulating the stablecoin industry in the US, lest a shift from bank deposits increase lending costs and reduce loans to businesses. 

The bank lobby holds considerable sway in Washington, and while it may be able to complicate lawmaking, some argue that it’s delaying the inevitable: a future denominated in stablecoins. 

Source: Bank Policy Institute

Banks say stablecoin interest is a threat

Prominent members in the crypto industry have long argued that stablecoin issuers should be allowed to offer users interest. In March, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said interest-bearing stablecoins would give users more control over financial products. 

But according to Andrew Rossow, policy and public affairs attorney, the novelty of onchain interest means problems like solvency, liquidity and investor protection aren’t straightforward.

“Claims of ‘easy compliance’ overlook the complex realities of ensuring proper reserve backing, Anti-Money Laundering/Know Your Customer and prudential oversight simultaneously,” he told Cointelegraph.

The BPI’s letter addressed these concerns directly. It particularly called into question a so-called “loophole” in Sec. 4(a)(11) of GENIUS, which prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying “any form of interest or yield (whether in cash, tokens, or other consideration) solely in connection with the holding, use, or retention of such payment stablecoin.”

This section seems to ban yielding stablecoins, but according to Aaron Brogan, founder of crypto-focused law firm Brogan Law, “many believe that it does not ban deals between exchanges and issuers.”

The ability for other firms, like exchanges, to allow interest on stablecoins is based on factors other than “holding use or retention” as mentioned in GENIUS. The word “solely” in the GENIUS Act is a “powerful legal limiter, and it really does mean that if there is any other basis for the deals, they probably don’t qualify,” he told Cointelegraph.

So, while GENIUS is “written to appear quite complete, the prohibition on interest is probably actually relatively porous.”

Stablecoins, which can often offer much higher interest than traditional bank offerings, “do not substitute for bank deposits, money market funds or investment products, and payment stablecoin issuers are not regulated, supervised or examined in the same way,” said the BPI.

It said that this poses a threat to existing credit models. As things stand, customer deposits allow banks to create a significant portion of the money supply through loans and lines of credit.

“Incentivizing a shift from bank deposits and money market funds to stablecoins would end up increasing lending costs and reducing loans to businesses and consumer households,” the BPI stated.

The banking industry’s concerns may have some grounding, said Rossow. “The bank lobby’s strongest argument is that allowing stablecoin issuers to pay interest risks would create unregulated ‘shadow banks,’ threatening financial stability and consumer safety. Without robust capital, reserve requirements and oversight, stablecoin issuers could trigger liquidity crises and expose users to even more risk,” he said.

However, the banks’ position begins to fall apart when it calls issuer-paid interest on stablecoins “inherently dangerous,” said Rossow. Given that some proposals from the crypto industry show it’s possible to allow issuer interest with proper regulation, “a total ban may seem more about protecting traditional banks than balanced progress.”

Will the GENIUS Act be amended?

Pursuing self-interest at the expense of the greater good is essentially taken for granted in Washington. In this regard, powerful and conflicting influences in the policymaking process can “dilute legislation and regulation, leading to a policy gridlock yielding compromises that would most likely please neither side entirely, only to create further market uncertainty,” said Rossow.

He said that, prior to the 2008 financial crisis, mortgage lenders blocked more strict regulations on predatory lending, directly contributing to the financial risk-taking that led to the financial system’s collapse. 

“These lobbying battles only serve to widen the regulatory gaps and weaknesses that undermine our financial stability and consumer protections, further erode public confidence and, now more relevant than ever, our government’s ability to regulate impartially — especially when lobbying appears to grant preferential treatment to vested interests, hidden or not,” Rossow said.

But the banking industry’s ability to actually challenge stablecoins is limited, and it may just be attempting to challenge the inevitable, according to Brogan. It’s unlikely that the crypto industry will accept amendments to GENIUS, a law on which it’s already made concessions. 

Jake Chervinsky, chief legal officer of Variant, noted that the law already took bank lobby considerations into account. Source: Jake Chervinsky

“The bank lobby is tilting at windmills here. Sometimes you do see new language snuck into other legislation like pork, but I doubt something so significant could pass under the radar. I don’t expect more stablecoin legislation in this Congress,” he said. 

Rather, Brogan said that the banks were pushing back against the inevitable, drawing on the historical example of music executives decrying the rise of digital music and file sharing. 

“People never wanted to use banks to make payments, they just had to. Now, they don’t. Just like digital music files were better than CDs, disintermediated finance is better and easier than traditional banking,” he said in a recent blog post. 

The banking industry has considerable sway in Washington, but its concerns about stablecoins may be a day late and a dollar short. The crypto industry now has the ability to advocate for its own interests successfully and influentially, and it has done so in the form of GENIUS.

What remains to be seen is how this new financial order shakes out for everyday investors. Per the BPI, a shift toward stablecoins means “higher interest rates, fewer loans, and increased costs for Main Street businesses and households.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 09:40

Housing Market Cracks Widen: Top Siding Company Suffers Worst Stock Collapse In 50 Years

James Hardie Industries - the world's largest producer of fiber cement products, headquartered in Ireland and dual-listed in Sydney and New York - issued a grim housing outlook that sent its Sydney shares plunging the most in 50 years. The warning underscores deepening cracks emerging in the U.S. housing market under the continued weight of elevated interest rates. President Trump issued a new warning overnight about those rates "hurting" the housing industry. 

James Hardie generates about 70% of its revenue from North America. Its flagship product, HardiePlank, is widely used in residential housing as an alternative to wood or vinyl siding. That makes the company's earnings reports closely watched, given its heavy exposure to the U.S. housing market.

Its first-quarter results missed Wall Street expectations, highlighting ongoing uncertainty in the housing market. Quarterly profit dropped to $62.6 million, or 15 cents per share, from $155.3 million, or 36 cents, a year earlier. Adjusted EPS was 29 cents, below FactSet’s consensus of 33 cents, while revenue declined 9% to $899.9 million, also missing the $952.7 million estimate.

"The gloomy outlook reflects weaker-than-anticipated activity in single-family new construction throughout the summer, as well as challenging demand trends in the repair and remodel market," CEO Aaron Erter stated, adding, "It also factors in expectations for further inventory calibration by the company's channel partners in the remainder of the calendar year." 

"Uncertainty is a common thread throughout conversations with customer and contractor partners," Erter said, pointing out, "Homeowners are deferring large-ticket remodeling projects like re-siding, and affordability remains the key impediment to improvement in single-family new construction."

James Hardie shares are down over 30% in the US pre-open...

...the most since November 1973, following the dismal earnings report and mounting construction challenges across North America. 

James Hardie's results add to the red flags for traders materializing in the construction and property space, with lumber prices sliding in recent months. Also, Toll Brothers gave disappointing guidance. 

Meanwhile, President Trump fired off this Truth Social post in the overnight, "Could somebody please inform Jerome "Too Late" Powell that he is hurting the Housing Industry, very badly? People can't get a Mortgage because of him. There is no Inflation, and every sign is pointing to a major Rate Cut. "Too Late" is a disaster!" 

The Federal Reserve's next policy meeting will be held on September 16-17. Interest rate swaps have odds at about 84.5% of a 25bps cut. 

The downbeat outlook for the U.S. housing market and homeowners deferring large-ticket remodeling projects only suggests cracks are emerging. Maybe Trump is right. 
 

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 09:20

Trump Demands Fed Governor "Must Resign Now" Amid Mortgage Fraud Probe

The director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency is urging Attorney General Pam Bondi to investigate Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over a pair of mortgages, the latest in a series of moves by the Trump administration to increase legal scrutiny of Democratic figures and appointees.

FHFA Director Bill Pulte wrote a letter to Bondi and DOJ official Ed Martin on Aug. 15 suggesting that Cook may have committed a criminal offense. The letter alleges that Cook “falsified bank documents and property records to acquire more favorable loan terms, potentially committing mortgage fraud under the criminal statute.”

Bloomberg reports that Pulte said Cook took a mortgage on a property in Ann Arbor, Michigan, signing a mortgage agreement that stipulated she would use the property as her primary residence for at least a year.

Two weeks later, according to the letter, she took another mortgage on a Georgia property and also declared it would be her primary residence.

Pulte also called on Bondi to look into whether Cook misrepresented her circumstances by later listing the Georgia property for rental.

The letter includes copies of mortgage documents in Cook’s name, as well as an apparent rental listing from 2022, a little over a year after she bought the Georgia property.

Here is the Criminal Referral Letter on Lisa Cook, the current Fed Governor. pic.twitter.com/aG0LGnokei

— Pulte (@pulte) August 20, 2025

And President Trump was swift to respond... demanding that "Cook must resign, now!!!"

...as the full court press to pack The Fed continues.

Cook was nominated to the Fed by President Joe Biden and took office in 2022, becoming the first Black woman to serve on the Fed’s board of governors.

She was later nominated by Biden for a full term, which expires in 2038.

Bloomberg reports that no charges have been filed and it’s not clear whether Bondi will investigate. The Justice Department declined comment. The Federal Reserve declined comment. Cook did not respond to requests for comment late Tuesday.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 08:45

Futures Drop For 4th Day As Momentum Unwind Continues

US equity futures are down and headed for a 4th day of losses, but trade well off session lows as markets assess if the sharp momentum selloff we have discussed for the past week will extend into today's session: the JPM Momentum Basket (JPMPURE Index) is down more than 7% since the CPI print while Goldman said it's time to resume buying momentum factor. As of 8:00am S&P futures are down 0.2%, after dipping 0.5% earlier in the session; Nasdaq futures are also down 0.2% after the index logged its second-biggest decline since April on Tuesday, with Mag7 names lower premarket ex-NVDA/MSFT; Defensives are outperforming Cyclicals. According to JPM "today feels like a test for the dip-buyers, as Flash PMIs tomorrow and Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday may prove to be market movers/narrative changers." The yield curve is twisting flatter with the USD not flat. Commodities are seeing a bid across all 3 complexes highlighted by WTI. The macro data today is mortgage applications and Fed Minutes with tomorrow delivering Flash PMIs, jobless data, leading index, and existing home sales. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Nvidia +0.05%, Microsoft +0.1%, Tesla -0.3%, Alphabet -0.5%, Meta -0.4%, Amazon -0.4%, Apple -0.5%). Target plunged 10% after saying management still sees a sales decline of low-single digit percentage. The company also named veteran Michael Fiddelke as its next chief executive officer, betting that the insider will rejuvenate sales and help the storied retailer regain its footing. Here are the other notable premarket movers>

• Analog Devices (ADI) rises 3% after the semiconductor-device company reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Celldex Therapeutics (CLDX) falls 18% after the drug developer said it was discontinuing development of barzolvolimab in eosinophilic esophagitis after a Phase 2 study.
• Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) declines 4% after being downgraded at JPMorgan to underweight from neutral, on expectations that vocational truck sales will soften over the coming quarters due to weak orders data.
• Dayforce (DAY) rises 2% after the software firm said it’s in advanced discussions with Thoma Bravo regarding a potential acquisition for $70 per share.
• Estee Lauder (EL) falls 7% after issuing an annual adjusted EPS forecast that trails expectations. The organic sales decline for 4Q was slightly worse than expected, driven by Skin Care and Makeup segments.
• Hertz (HTZ) rises 10% after CNBC reported that the car-rental company will start selling pre-owned cars on Amazon Autos. Shares of Carvana (CVNA) decline 5%, while CarMax (KMX) drops 4%.
• La-Z-Boy (LZB) falls 22% after the home furniture retailer posted weaker-than-expected first-quarter adjusted earnings per share.
• Lowe’s Cos. (LOW) rises 3% after agreeing to buy Foundation Building Materials for about $8.8 billion in cash as it expands further beyond home-improvement supplies to serve more professional customers.
• Novavax (NVAX) drops 7% after BofA Global Research downgraded the vaccine maker to underperform from neutral, citing a “bumpy road” ahead.
• Nubank (NU) rises 2% as Citi double upgrades to buy from sell, with analysts saying the bank is now able to accelerate in key portfolios while maintaining good asset quality.
• Rocket Pharmaceuticals (RCKT) falls 18% after announcing that the FDA lifted the clinical hold on the Phase 2 trial of RP-A501 for the treatment of Danon disease.
• Toll Brothers (TOL) is down 2% after the luxury builder’s quarterly orders missed estimates as affordability challenges and economic uncertainty held back buyers.

Investors pared back positions in tech amid growing concern that the S&P 500’s recent record-breaking rally has run too far, too fast and has leaned heavily on a few growth leaders. That momentum will get a further test this week as focus turns to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak on Friday with traders betting on a September cut in interest rates.

“This was a textbook case of profit-taking after a powerful tech rally,” wrote Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen, head of cross-asset strategy at Danske Bank A/S. “Yesterday’s move does not alter our tactical stance. On fundamentals alone, we would likely overweight tech. But when factoring in stretched positioning and valuations, we remain neutral.”

Investors are also waiting to hear whether Powell will validate current market expectations or counter them by stressing that fresh economic data arriving before the next policy meeting could alter the outlook. They’re also scanning for hints about how the Fed foresees the pace of rate cuts extending into next year.

“If we get an indication that they are more inclined to cutting interest rates, that will be more supportive again,” HSBC Head of APAC Equity Strategy Herald van der Linde said in a Bloomberg TV interview.

Europe's Stoxx 600 is slightly higher after erasing an earlier drop, and edges closer toward a new high after erasing losses.  Personal care stocks outperform, while industrials and construction shares are the biggest laggards. European tech stocks also decline. In the UK, money markets kept wagers on Bank of England interest-rate cuts broadly steady, seeing around a 40% chance of another reduction by year-end after inflation climbed for a second month in July. A full quarter-point cut had been expected earlier this month. Gilts rose, with the two-year yield falling four basis points at 3.93%. The pound fluctuated. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Emmi gains 6.4%, the most since 2024, after the Swiss dairy producer published solid results in a challenging environment, with a beat on organic growth driven entirely by the Americas segment, according to Vontobel
• Convatec shares rise as much as 6%, the most in two months, after the medical equipment manufacturer announced the start of a buyback program, with Morgan Stanley saying the announcement signals confidence
• Sensirion rises as much as 11%, the most since April, after the semiconductor device manufacturer posted results that beat analysts’ estimates, with higher sales volumes attributed to US demand for a refrigerant sensor product
• Ithaca Energy shares jumped as much as 8.6% to the highest level since February 2023 after the UK oil and gas company boosted its production forecast for the full year
• ASR Nederland climbs as much as 2.5% to a record high after the Dutch insurance company released first-half results. Morgan Stanley said it was another strong print, while KBC highlighted the good performance in the Life unit
• NEPI Rockcastle rallied as much as 3% in Johannesburg to its highest intraday level since Feb. 24 after the property investor posted Ebit for the first half that increased 10% year-on-year
• Paradox Interactive gains as much as 4.7% after the Swedish video game company announced release dates for two highly anticipated game releases, Europa Universalis V and Vampire: The Masquerade - Bloodlines 2
• Alcon drops as much as 11% in Zurich, the most since March 2020, after delivering sales growth below expectations in the second quarter and announcing downward revisions to its full-year net sales guidance
• K+S falls as much as 3.3% as Berenberg double-downgrades to sell, with previous buy thesis no longer standing up due to expectations of “broadly lower” prices for agricultural commodities from 2026
• Geberit falls as much as 4.3%, the most in more than four months, after the Swiss building materials firm reported a lower-than-expected Ebitda in the second quarter
• European defense stocks remain under pressure this morning after Russian President Vladimir Putin “agreed to begin the next phase of the peace process,” according to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt
• UK housebuilder shares drop after inflation climbed for a second month in July, adding pressure on the Bank of England to reconsider its pace of interest-rate cuts
• LINK Mobility falls as much as 9.4%, the most since November last year and trimming large YTD gains, after the Norwegian communications technology group reported its latest earnings. DNB Carnegie sees a “minor miss”
• EVS Broadcast Equipment drops as much as 13%, the most since March 2020, as ING Bank describes the company’s first-half results as “very weak”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, as technology shares tracked declines in US peers amid valuation concerns ahead of upcoming key events. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.7%, falling for the third consecutive session, with TSMC and Softbank among the biggest drags. Taiwan led declines, with South Korea and Japan also notably in the red. Risk-off mood has gripped markets ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expected to speak on Friday. Investors also await Nvidia’s earnings next week for indications on the health of the artificial intelligence boom that has driven gains in global tech shares. Meanwhile, New Zealand stocks climbed after the nation’s central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. Indonesian stocks gained as the central bank surprised markets by cutting its benchmark rate for a second straight month and signaling more easing was on the table. Shares in India, Australia and China rose. 

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index is flat; the pound adds 0.1% on modest CPI support. The kiwi lags, down more than 1% after the RBNZ cut rates and flagged further easing. The krona is little changed after the Riksbank held policy as expected.

In rates, treasuries are steady, with 10-year yields flat at 4.30%. Gilts lead a rally in European bonds even as UK inflation topped forecasts, sending 10-year yields 4 bps lower to 4.70%.

In commodities, Brent crude rose more than 1% to around $66.60 a barrel while spot gold climbs $10.

Today's US economic data calendar features FOMC minutes; the Fed speaker slate includes Governor Waller on payments at blockchain symposium at 11am and Atlanta Fed President Bostic at 3pm.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX -0.3%
• CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.3%
• VIX +0.4 points at 15.94
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1207.67
• euro little changed at $1.1637
• WTI crude +1% at $63/barrel

Top Overnight News

• McDonald’s is lowering the cost of its combo meals, after consumers were left sticker-shocked by Big Mac meals that climbed to $18 in some places: WSJ
• Trump posted "Could somebody please inform Jerome “Too Late” Powell that he is hurting the Housing Industry, very badly? People can’t get a Mortgage because of him. There is no Inflation, and every sign is pointing to a major Rate Cut. “Too Late” is a disaster!"
• Secretary Bessent is reportedly betting the crypto industry will become a crucial buyer of Treasuries in the coming years as Washington seeks to shore up demand for a deluge of new US government debt: FT.
• US is looking into taking equity stakes in chip makers in exchange for CHIPS Act funding, similar to the Intel plan: RTRS 
• Estée Lauder Cos. issued a weak profit outlook for its fiscal year, dragged down in part by tariff costs.
• Xiaomi Corp. intends to sell its first electric vehicle in Europe by 2027, declaring plans to take on Tesla Inc. and BYD Co. globally after gaining traction with its year-old Chinese EV business.
• Novo Nordisk A/S implemented a global hiring freeze as the Danish drugmaker seeks to cut costs and regain its footing in the competitive market for weight-loss treatments.
• Baidu Inc.’s revenue fell, hurt by an economic downturn that’s capping its ability to fight bigger rivals in AI and make inroads in new growth areas.
• Temasek Holdings Pte is mulling one of its biggest overhauls in years, potentially reorganizing the firm into three investment vehicles in a bid to boost returns and efficiencies, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Shares of Chinese pop toy maker Pop Mart International Group Ltd. rose to a record after founder and Chief Executive Officer Wang Ning said the company could easily surpass its annual sales projection and announced plans to launch a new mini Labubu.

Shipments of phones within China -9.3% Y/Y at 22.6mln handsets in June (prev. -21.8% Y/Y at 23.72mln in May), via CAICT; shipments of foreign phones incl. Apple (AAPL) iPhones within China -31.3% at 1.97mln (prev. 9.7% at 4.54mln in May).

Trade/Tariffs

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US has had very good talks with China and that China is the biggest revenue line in terms of tariff income, while he added that the status quo on China is working very well.
• Mexico will propose reinstating a North American Steel Committee to improve trade ties with the US, according to Bloomberg.
• Russian Embassy in India said INR payments being accepted by all Russian businesses; open to doing all oil trade INR too.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed after a lacklustre performance stateside, where mega-cap tech led the declines amid AI-related concerns, while the region digested earnings and central bank updates including the RBNZ's dovish rate cut. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in the top-weighted financials sector and with strength also seen in  defensives, while participants also reflected on a slew of earnings updates. Nikkei 225 retreated beneath the 43,000 level amid continued profit taking from recent record highs and after mixed data in which Machinery Tools topped  forecasts but trade data mostly disappointed and showed Japanese Exports suffered the largest decline in four years. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied as participants digested earnings releases including from Xiaomi and XPeng, while there was a lack of surprises from China's benchmark Loan Prime Rates which were maintained at the current levels, although the PBoC continued with its firm liquidity efforts via 7-day reverse repo operations.

Top Asian News

• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said regarding a meeting with Indian PM Modi that after comprehensive and in-depth communication, China and India reached an agreement to restart dialogue mechanisms in various fields.
• India’s Foreign Ministry said India and China agreed to resume direct flight connectivity between the Chinese mainland and India at the earliest, while they agreed to the re-opening of border trade through the three designated trading points. Furthermore, they agreed to facilitate trade and investment flows between the two countries through concrete measures.
• RBNZ cut the OCR by 25bps to 3.00%, as expected, while it lowered OCR projections and stated if medium-term inflation pressures continue to ease as expected, there is scope to lower the OCR further. RBNZ stated that with spare capacity in the economy and declining domestic inflation pressure, headline inflation is expected to return to around the 2% target midpoint by mid-2026, and further data on the speed of New Zealand’s economic recovery will influence the future path of the OCR. RBNZ lowered the Official Cash Rate projection for December 2025 to 2.71% (prev. 2.92%) and to 2.59% in September 2026 (prev. 2.90%). The RBNZ Minutes revealed that the rate decision was made by a majority of 4 votes to 2 and the committee discussed three policy options: keeping the OCR on hold at 3.25%, cutting the OCR by 25bps to 3% or cutting by 50bps to 2.75%, but voted on the options of either reducing the OCR by 25bps or reducing the OCR by 50bps, while the case for lowering the OCR by 25bps was based on the upside and downside risks around the central projection being broadly balanced. Furthermore, RBNZ Governor Hawkesby said during the Q&A that the next two meetings are live but no decisions have been made, as well as stated that the OCR projection troughs at 2.5% and is consistent with further cuts, while whether they go faster or slower on cuts is up to the data.
• Baidu (9888 HK) Q2 (USD): EPS 1.90 (exp. 1.74), Revenue 4.57bln (exp. 4.60bln); AI cloud business continued to deliver robust growth.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) are trading on the backfoot in a reversal of some of Tuesday's upside and following on from the tech-led selling pressure seen Stateside. Stocks have been attempting to clamber higher as the morning progressed, with a few indices now holding around the unchanged mark. European sectors are overall mixed with a slightly defensive tilt given the current risk environment. Food, Beverage and Tobacco sits at the top of the leaderboard with Nestle (+1.2%) leading some of the upside, other sectors outperforming include Utilities, Telecoms and Insurance. To the downside, Basic Resource names lag.

Top European News

• ECB's Lagarde said recent trade deals have alleviated but not eliminated uncertainty; EZ economy has proven resilient in the face of challenging global environment. Notes that projections show growth is expected to slow in Q3. ECB will factor the implications of the EU-US trade deal for the Euro area economy into the September projections, will guide decisions over the coming months. Europe should aim to deepen its trade ties with other jurisdictions outside of the US, leveraging the strengths of its export-oriented economy.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is drawing up plans to hit owners of high-value properties with capital gains tax when they sell their homes as she seeks to fill a GBP 40bln hole in the public finances, according to The Times.
• UK ONS said average UK House Prices increased 3.7% in the 12 months to June 2025 (vs 3.3% Y/Y).
• Riksbank maintains its rate at 2.00% as expected; still some probability of a further interest rate cut this year, in line with the June forecast. COMMENTARY: Developments in inflation and economic activity during the summer have deviated somewhat from the forecast in June, the Executive Board assesses that the outlook remains largely the same. Economic activity is weak. New information indicates that growth is still low. Households are still cautious with regard to their spending, and the labour market is not yet showing any clear sign of improving. Uncertainty regarding international developments also remains high, not least given US economic policy, the war in Ukraine and developments in the Middle East.
• Riksbank Governor Thedeen said it is far from certain that central bank will cut going forward, but there is a certain likelihood.

FX

• After two sessions of gains, the USD rally has paused for breath. There hasn't been a clear driver for the upside seen at the start of the week with the macro narrative relatively unaltered heading into Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. FOMC minutes are due later today. However, they will likely be deemed as stale in some quarters given the aforementioned August jobs report hit just a few days after the meeting. Fed's Bostic and Waller are due on today's speaker slate. Note, the subject matter for the latter is on Blockchain payments. DXY has ventured as high as 98.44 with the next upside target coming via the 12th August peak at 98.62.
• EUR is marginally softer vs. the USD with it remaining the case that there has not been a great deal of incremental macro newsflow from the Eurozone. Remarks from ECB President Lagarde failed to engineer a move in the EUR today with the policy chief noting that recent trade deals have alleviated but not eliminated uncertainty. EUR/USD sits in close proximity to its 50DMA at 1.1644 and towards the bottom end of Tuesday's 1.1639-93 range.
• JPY is flat vs. the USD with no material follow-through from mixed data in which Machinery Tools topped forecasts but trade data mostly disappointed and showed Japanese Exports suffered the largest decline in four years. That being said, the drop-off in exports could prompt some concern from those on the BoJ who expect a negative growth hit from the trade conflict with the US. USD/JPY currently sits towards the mid-point of yesterday's 147.44-148.11 range.
• GBP is mildly firmer vs. the USD in the wake of hotter-than-expected UK inflation metrics, which saw headline Y/Y CPI advance to 3.8% from 3.6% (Exp. 3.7%) and services jump to 5.0% from 4.7% (Exp. 4.7%). The ONS has attributed some of this to the timing of school holidays, which has triggered a surge in airfares. However, given the outcome of the most recent BoE rate decision, which saw a higher-than-expected level of hawkish dissent, markets will likely further cement expectations that the BoE will slow down the current quarterly cadence of rate cuts. Cable has hit a 1.3509 peak but is still some way off Tuesday's best at 1.3519.
• NZD is the standout laggard across the majors following the RBNZ rate decision, which saw the Bank cut the OCR by 25bps to 3.00%, as widely expected, while it also lowered its OCR forecasts across the projection horizon and revealed it had voted on the options of either a 25bps or 50bps cut at the meeting; 2 members backed a 50bps move.
• SEK is a touch softer vs. the EUR in the wake of the Riksbank rate decision, which saw policymakers stand pat on policy as expected. The decision to do so was predicated on the board's balancing act in managing weak growth vs. above target inflation. That being said, the Bank still judges that there is still some probability of a further interest rate cut this year, in line with the June forecast. EUR/SEK is currently above its 200DMA at 11.1771 with upside capped by the 11.20 mark.

Fixed Income

• USTs are flat and underperforming vs peers, after trading with a slight downward bias overnight. Nothing specifically driving the underperformance, but perhaps some cooling from the upside seen in the prior session, where stocks took a beating. Some of the pressure could also be in part due to some positioning heading into a 20yr supply later. In terms of price action today, USTs were initially on the backfoot but global fixed income has caught a slight bid to trade in a 111-20 to 111-24 range. Auction aside, focus will be on commentary from the Fed’s Waller, Bostic and the reported Fed Chair candidate Zervos, who is to speak on CNBC.
• Bunds are outperforming vs peers today, with the bulk of the day’s action occurring at 07:00 BST. On that, there was some significant two-way movement in Bund futures as traders reacted to the UK CPI report (hotter-than-expected; details in Gilt section) and German Producer Prices (softer-than-expected). Elsewhere, no real move to commentary via ECB President Lagarde, who noted that projections show growth is expected to slow in Q3. Bunds traded towards highs at 129.35 into a dual tranche German auction, which had little follow through to price action.
• Gilts are firmer today, initially gapping higher at the cash open in catch-up to the strength seen in USTs in the prior session, but then saw some two-way action as traders digested the UK’s hot inflation report. Delving into the UK CPI report, it held a hawkish skew, with both Core and Headline figures incrementally higher, edging higher than the prior, more than expected. The accompanying commentary provided some reasoning, pinning the uptick on the “timing of this year’s school holidays”. Gilts are currently trading towards the upper end of a 90.43 to 90.88 range.
• Germany sells EUR 0.747bln vs exp. EUR 1.0bln 2.50% 2046 and EUR 1.15bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.50% 2054 Bund

Commodities

• Crude is firmer today as the complex attempts to trim some of the prior day's losses, induced by geopolitics as renewed efforts are made to temper down the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This morning, the Russian Embassy in India said despite political situation, approximately same level of oil will be imported by India. As a reminder, Washington slapped India with a 25% penalty linked to oil purchases. Brent sits in a USD 65.81-66.57/bbl range.
• Spot gold languishes just above the prior day's trough as participants await Fed policy clues from the incoming FOMC Minutes and Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. Price action this morning sees the precious metals complex eking mild gains, with spot gold still trading under its 50 DMA (~3,348/oz) in a USD 3,311.56-3,327.61/oz range.
• Flat/mixed trade across base metals amid quiet newsflow and ahead of FOMC minutes. Copper futures lacked demand following the recent selling pressure and amid the mixed overnight risk appetite. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,684.75-9,729.00/t range.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.4mln (exp. -1.8mln), Distillate +0.5mln (exp. +0.9mln), Gasoline +1.0mln (exp. -0.9mln), Cushing -0.1mln.
• Norway Prelim July Production: oil 1.958mln BPD (prev. 1.675mln BPD in June); gas 10.2bcm (prev. 8.8bcm).

Geopolitics: Middle East

• "Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz has approved the IDF’s operational plan for an assault on Gaza City"; "As part of the new plan, the necessary reserve call-up orders will be issued to carry out the offensive.", via Stein on X.
• Syrian Foreign Affairs Minister Al-Shaibani discussed de-escalation talks in Paris with the Israeli delegation and discussed "Strengthening stability in southern Syria", according to Al-Hadath citing SANA.
• Iranian Foreign Minister said Tehran cannot completely cut ties with the IAEA, according to IRNA.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US President Trump said he wants to see what goes on when Zelensky and Putin meet, while he added they are in the process of setting the meeting up. Trump also said he gets along with Russian President Putin which is a good thing and commented that two nuclear powers getting along is a good thing.
• White House official said US President Trump and Hungarian PM Orban discussed on Monday Ukraine's EU accession talks and Budapest as a potential venue for the Zelensky-Putin meeting.
• US Special Envoy Witkoff said progress was made on how to achieve a peace deal, according to a Fox News Interview.
• There was no violation of Polish airspace overnight, according to local press.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korean leader Kim's sister said South Korea cannot be a diplomatic counterpart to North Korea and South Korean President Lee cannot turn the tide of history, while she also stated that relations between the two Koreas will never return to the way South Korea wants, according to Yonhap and KCNA.
• Russian Embassy in India said Russian President Putin and Indian PM Modi are to meet in Delhi by year-end, no date finalised.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Aug 15 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 10.9%

Central Bank speakers 

• 11:00 am: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Payment at Wyoming Blockchain Symposium
• 2:00 pm: Fed Releases FOMC Minutes
• 3:00 pm: Fed’s Bostic in Moderated Conversation on Economic Outlook

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have put in a divergent performance over the last 24 hours, with a pretty big contrast on either side of the Atlantic. In Europe, there was a fairly positive tone as speculation grew about some kind of breakthrough on a peace deal in Ukraine, with the STOXX 600 (+0.69%) reaching a 5-month high. But in the US, a sharp tech selloff gathered pace through the session, with the S&P 500 (-0.59%) posting its biggest decline since the underwhelming jobs report at the start of the month. And there’s been little sign of that relenting overnight, with nearly all the major indices in Asia moving lower this morning, whilst S&P 500 futures are down another -0.28%.

We’ll start with Europe, where markets saw a clear reaction amidst the latest developments about Ukraine. In part, that was a reaction to the White House meeting on Monday, which occurred after European markets had closed. But yesterday also saw Trump suggest that the US could be involved in security guarantees, and he said that “We’re willing to help them with things, especially, probably you could talk about by air, because there’s nobody that has the kind of stuff we have” though he again ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine. Trump also continued to encourage a deal, saying that “I hope President Putin is going to be good, and if he’s not, it’s going to be a rough situation”, and that Zelenskiy “has to show some flexibility also.” Meanwhile, Moscow remained non-committal on a potential Putin-Zelenskiy meeting that has been proposed by Trump, with Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov saying that such a meeting would have to be prepared "gradually... starting with the expert level and then going through all the required steps”.

This speculation about a diplomatic breakthrough meant that European assets saw some sizeable moves, particularly those most affected by the conflict. Indeed, it was notable that defence stocks really struggled yesterday, and Rheinmetall (-4.85%) posted the worst performance in the German DAX (+0.45%) yesterday, despite being the strongest performer over 2025 as a whole given the wider ramp up in defence spending. There was a positive reaction from Ukraine’s dollar bonds, with the 10yr yield down -8.4bps yesterday to a 4-month low, though the move partially reversed as the day went on with yields having been over -30bps lower intra-day. And the reaction was also clear among oil prices, with Brent crude (-1.22%) falling back to $65.79/bbl, having risen the previous day after investors viewed a ceasefire as increasingly unlikely.

Despite that weakness among defence stocks, the more positive sentiment meant European equities did very well more broadly. For instance, the STOXX 600 (+0.69%) was up to a five-month high, in a broad-based advance that saw almost every sector group move higher on the day. That was evident across the continent, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.34%) hit a new record, whilst both Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.89%) and Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.34%) hit a post-2007 high as well.

But even as European markets had a strong performance, it was a different story in the US, where the S&P 500 (-0.59%) fell back for a third consecutive session. Indeed, it was the worst daily performance since August 1, back when the underwhelming jobs report meant investors grew more fearful about a US slowdown. That was driven by a slump among tech stocks, with the NASDAQ (-1.46%) seeing a larger fall, whilst the Magnificent 7 declined -1.67% with Nvidia (-3.50%) leading the moves lower. That said, apart from tech stocks, it was still a decent day for most US equities, with 70% of the S&P 500’s constituents still moving higher on the day. There was also a boost from Intel (+6.97%), which was the strongest performer in the S&P after the news that SoftBank had agreed to buy $2bn of Intel stock. Meanwhile, Home Depot (+3.17%) was the 7th-best performer after its own earnings release. So the equal-weighted S&P 500 was actually up +0.45% yesterday, even as the market-cap weighted index was down by a similar amount.

For sovereign bonds, the story was generally more positive as well, and 10yr US Treasury yields fell -2.7bps on the day to 4.31%. The move got support from the decision by S&P Global Ratings to keep the US’ AA+ credit rating, particularly after the Moody’s downgrade back in May. We also heard a bit more on the appointment of a new Fed Chair, as Treasury Secretary Bessent said he’d be meeting with the candidates “probably right before, right after Labor Day”, which is on September 1. He said the meeting would help “start bringing down the list” which is presented to President Trump. As a reminder, Powell’s term as Chair ends in late-May, and the new chair is usually announced in the months beforehand, pending confirmation by the Senate.

Elsewhere, Canada’s government bonds saw a particular outperformance after their CPI inflation data was softer than expected. Specifically, headline inflation came down to +1.7% (vs. +1.8% expected), which meant investors dialled up the probability of another rate cut from the Bank of Canada this year. Indeed, the probability of a rate cut at the next meeting in September went up from 26% on Monday to 35% by the close last night. By contrast, UK gilts underperformed ahead of their own CPI release this morning, with the 10yr yield up +0.3bps on the day to 4.74%. At one point, the 30yr gilt yield was on track for another post-1998 high as well, but it ultimately ended the session down -0.9bps at 5.60%. Elsewhere in Europe, 10yr yields moved slightly lower, with those on bunds (-1.3bps), OATs (-1.1bps) and BTPs (-0.1bps) all falling back a bit.

Overnight in Asia, the risk-off tone has continued with pretty much all the major indices moving lower. The Nikkei (-1.59%) has led the declines, which follows worse-than-expected export data for Japan showing the negative tariff impact. Specifically, export growth posted its biggest year-on-year decline since February 2021, with a -2.6% fall (vs. -2.1% expected). And exports to the US were down -10.1% year-on-year, so it’s clear the tariffs are having an impact. But there’ve been losses across the region, with the KOSPI (-1.36%), the Hang Seng (-0.57%), the CSI 300 (-0.12%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.06%) all losing ground. The main exception to this has been in New Zealand, where the NZX 50 index (+1.44%) has surged after a dovish decision from the RBNZ overnight. They cut rates by 25bps, in line with expectations, but their forward guidance pointed to more rate cuts than before, with the Official Cash Rate seen falling to a low of 2.55% in early 2026, down from 2.85% back in May. So that’s led to a big reaction overnight, with their 10yr yields down -10.7bps, whilst the New Zealand dollar is down -1.05% against the US dollar.

Finally, there wasn’t much data yesterday, but we did get some US housing numbers. That included housing starts, which moved up to an annualised rate of 1.428m in July (vs. 1.297m expected), their highest in 5 months. However, building permits fell to an annualised 1.354m (vs. 1.386m expected), which is their lowest level since June 2020 as the economy was recovering from the initial wave of the pandemic.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the UK CPI print for July. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, and the Fed’s Waller and Bostic. We’ll also get the minutes from the FOMC’s July meeting. Finally, earnings releases include Target, TJX and Lowe’s.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 08:30

Target Plunges On Leadership Overhaul Amid Struggling Turnaround

Target shares plunged as much as 11% in premarket trading after the retailer announced longtime CEO Brian Cornell will be replaced by CFO Michael Fiddelke. The abrupt leadership change, expected in 1Q26, comes as the company's turnaround plan has failed to gain traction. Target also reported second-quarter results showing continued sales declines, weaker traffic, and guidance that points to persistent softness through year-end. 

Target's board has unanimously elected Fiddelke, currently CFO, as its next CEO, effective February. He will also join the board of directors. Cornell, who has led the retailer since 2014, will shift positions to executive chair. The leadership change comes as Target's turnaround falters and the retailer continues to lose ground to rivals such as Walmart and Amazon. 

"I'm stepping in with urgency to rebuild momentum and return to profitable growth," Fiddelke told analysts on the earnings call. "I've seen us at our best and I've seen us when we are not at our best, and that informs my candid assessment of today where we have work to do."

Christine Leahy, lead independent director of Target's board, stated, "It is clear that Michael is the right leader to return Target to growth, refocus and accelerate the company's strategy, and reestablish Target's position as a leader in the highly dynamic and fast-moving retail environment." 

Target plunged as much as 11% in premarket trading following the abrupt leadership announcement.

The selloff may reflect disappointment among institutional investors who were hoping for a fresh hire outside of the company for a reset strategy after a series of marketing disasters, from embracing DEI initiatives to backtracking on all things woke. 

The retailer managed to spark boycotts from customers on both sides of the political aisle. 

Data compiled by Bloomberg shows the retailer's sales are still shrinking, margins are weaker, and traffic is sliding for the second quarter ended Aug. 2:

Sales Trends

• Comparable sales: -1.9% → Negative, but better than expected (estimate -3.0%). Still marks a reversal from last year's +2%.

• Digital sales: +4.3% → Growth beat estimates (+3.8%), but it's a big slowdown from last year's +8.7%.

• Stores: Store comps were weak at -3.2% (vs. +0.7% last year), though not as bad as feared (-4%).

Customer Behavior

• Transactions: -1.3% → fewer customers coming in, compared to +3% last year.

• Basket size: -0.6% → each trip was slightly smaller, but not collapsing. 

Profitability

• Operating margin: 5.2% → down from 6.4% last year, but in line with expectations.

• Operating income: $1.32B (-19% y/y), slightly above estimates. Adjusted EPS: $2.05 vs. $2.01 expected → a narrow beat, but well below last year's $2.57.

• Gross margin: 29% → still pressured but not collapsing.

Some of the initial reads from the second quarter:

• Maybe a "less bad" quarter... The numbers indicate a customer slowdown, but the results exceeded the lowest expectations. 

• Online growth offsetting weak stores: Digital held up, helping comps.

• Margin erosion: Profitability is dropping as promotions and cautious consumers weigh on earnings.

The takeaway from the full-year forecast is that Target is holding guidance steady, signaling the turnaround plan has yet to materialize ahead of the back-to-school shopping period in late summer or early fall:

• Earnings outlook intact: Adjusted EPS of $7 to $9 brackets consensus ($7.29), giving management flexibility. GAAP EPS of $8 to $10 is also unchanged. Suggests confidence in profitability despite consumer headwinds

• Sales decline: Management still expects low single-digit declines (in line with estimates of -1.7%). They're not forecasting a rebound, just managing the slowdown.

All in all, the management shake-up set to take effect next February is not surprising given the limited traction in Target's turnaround plan. The mistake the retailer likely made, and why the stock plunged in premarket trading, was failing to bring in fresh outside talent to lead. 

Goldman analysts led by Kate McShane maintain "Neutral" on the stock. 

McShane told clients last month that it was "still too early to call a turnaround" in Target. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 08:05

NOAA Issues La Niña Watch For Northern Hemisphere

The global news narrative was recently dominated by climate crisis propaganda, pushed by the globalist Democratic Party, which funneled taxpayer monies into rogue dark-money funded NGOs and rammed climate bills through Congress, all while using the guise of a 'climate crisis' as a maneuver to loot the U.S. Treasury. We were told the world would burn within years without higher taxes on the working poor, the elimination of cow farts, the shutdown of coal plants, bans on NatGas stoves, diesel trucks, and other radical de-growth policies that have only backfired a few short years later. 

Yet here we are - still breathing air and sipping coffee - and the hurricane season was nowhere near the apocalyptic scenario meteorologists had warned earlier this year. That said, activity traditionally ramps up around this time, with a few storms now churning in the Atlantic Basin.

Another climate crisis propaganda headline over the years claimed the world's oceans were "boiling" and that the destruction of Earth was nearing. Yet now, colder-than-normal ocean temperatures are being observed across the central and eastern tropical Pacific, with the U.S. Climate Prediction Center forecasting higher odds of a La Niña weather pattern for the Lower 48 this fall and into early winter.

"ENSO-neutral is most likely through late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in Aug-Oct)," the Climate Prediction Center wrote on X, adding, "Thereafter, a brief period of La Niña conditions is favored in fall and early winter 2025-26 before reverting to ENSO-neutral. A La Niña Watch is in effect." 

ENSO-neutral is most likely through late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in Aug-Oct). Thereafter, a brief period of La Niña conditions is favored in fall and early winter 2025-26 before reverting to #ENSO-neutral. A #LaNina Watch is in effect. https://t.co/5zlzaZ1aZx pic.twitter.com/YIJa3v5ka0

— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) August 14, 2025

Meteorologist Ben Noll wrote on X that favored La Niña conditions to develop during October to December would "make it the 5th winter with La Niña out of the last six! This continues the trend of more frequent La Niña events over the past several decades." 

A La Niña watch has just been issued by NOAA.

La Niña conditions are favored to develop during October to December, which could make it the 5th winter with La Niña out of the last six!

This continues the trend of more frequent La Niña events over the past several decades. pic.twitter.com/kILpiSoaWw

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) August 14, 2025

Does not compute...

I don’t understand how this makes sense. With warmer ocean surface temperatures, I would think El Nino’s would be more common.

— chrishenry (@chrishe10347730) August 14, 2025

With the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer a little more than a month away, here are the Lower 48 impacts on a regional-by-regional basis of what a La Niña winter means:

Northern U.S.

• Colder and snowier than average across the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest.

• The jet stream often dips south, allowing Arctic air masses to spill into these regions.

• Great Lakes states usually see above-average lake-effect snow.

Southern U.S.

• Warmer and drier than normal across the southern tier (California, the Southwest, the Gulf Coast, and the Southeast).

• This can worsen drought conditions, strain water supplies, and elevate wildfire risks, especially in California and the Southwest.

East Coast & Northeast

• Winters can be variable. La Niña often favors milder, less snowy winters for the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

• The northern New England region sometimes still gets significant snow if cold Arctic air interacts with coastal storms.

West Coast

• Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho) usually turns wetter than average, with strong storms and heavy mountain snow. California tends to be drier, though occasionally northern California still benefits from Pacific storms.

For a rough framework of what this winter might bring, the Farmer's Almanac has released its long-range forecast for the Lower 48. Full details here. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 07:45

Jeanine Pirro Launches DOJ Investigation Into Whether DC Has Been Faking Crime Data

Four weeks after a DC police commander was suspended amid accusations that he manipulated crime statistics, the Department of Justice has launched a wide-ranging investigation into whether the department has been faking data to make crime rates lower, the Washington Post reports, citing two senior law enforcement officials.

Andrew Leyden / Getty Images

The investigation is run out of DC US Attorney Jeanine Pirro's office following the accusation lodged against Metro PD commander Michael Pulliam, who was put on leave in May after the department began investigating whether he altered crime data. Pullman has denied the allegations. 

Michael Pulliam

Pulliam's paid administrative leave came a week after he filed an equal employment opportunity complaint against an assistant chief over accusations that the department deliberately falsified crime data. The Police union, meanwhile, claims police supervisors in the department manipulate crime data to make it appear violent crime has fallen considerably compared to last year.

The DOJ investigation, however, will go much further - and will include other police and city officials who may have also fabricated or altered crime data. 

"D. C. gave Fake Crime numbers to create a false illusion of safety," President Trump wrote on Truth Social Monday night. 

"This is a very bad and dangerous thing to do, and they are under serious investigation for so doing!" he continued, adding "Until 4 days ago, Washington, D.C., was the most unsafe ‘city’ in the United States, and perhaps the World. Now, in just a short period of time, it is perhaps the safest, and getting better every single hour!"

The DOJ has yet to articulate what specific crimes DC police officials have committed beyond 'manipulating data.' 

DC Mayor Muriel Bowser flipped out, of course, touting what she says is a drop in violent crime that happened before President Trump brought in hundreds of National Guard troops and federal law enforcement officers to join local PD - also taken over by the Trump admin - in fighting what Trump called a crime emergency. DC statistics showed violent crime down 27% year-over-year, and homicides down 11% - numbers that are now being called into question.

"We are not experiencing a spike in crime," Bowser told MSNBC. "In fact, we’re watching our crime numbers go down."

Sure you are!

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 07:40

Civil Discourse It’s one of those days with so much going on that it was clear to me early in the day I needed to do a standalone post on the topic of Trump’s most recent attack on our elections to give that topic the focus it deserves. I hope you’ll share this post with […]

The post Trump’s “Truth” About Voting appeared first on Angry Bear.

Musk Reportedly Scales Back 'America First Party' Plans In Possible Détente With Trump

There are emerging signs that Elon Musk and President Trump have reached a détente - well, at least for now. 

The public bickering has stopped, tensions over Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' have faded, and both men have found common ground in backing the deployment of federal troops to curb violent crime across Washington, D.C., after DOGE's 'Big Balls' was injured in an attack. 

Now, a new report from the Wall Street Journal, citing sources, says Musk has dialed back plans to launch a political party to challenge Trump ahead of next year's midterms.

Recall that Musk had called for the 'America First Party' to challenge the Washington 'uniparty' following Trump's passage of the BBB in early July. He was also infuriated by the failure to codify a broad range of DOGE cuts.

The tit-for-tat social media fight between Musk and Trump was fierce between June and July: 

• June: Kill (The) Bill: Musk Goes Ballistic Against GOP Tax And Spending Package

• July: Trump Vs. Musk: "Big, Beautiful Bill" Feud Sparks Overnight Political Firestorm

• July: It's Official: Elon Musk's 'America Party' Registers With Federal Election Commission

Here are key points from the WSJ report (citing sources):

• Focus on Tesla/SpaceX & GOP Ties: Musk is prioritizing his companies and preserving his relationship with Vice President JD Vance, seen as Trump's political successor. He has privately admitted forming a party could strain that alliance.

• Future Support for Vance: Musk is considering channeling financial support into Vance's potential 2028 presidential run, after spending nearly $300 million to back Trump and Republicans in 2024.

An excerpt from WSJ:

As he has considered launching a party, the Tesla chief executive officer has been focused in part on maintaining ties with Vice President JD Vance, who is widely seen as a potential heir to the MAGA political movement. Musk has stayed in touch with Vance in recent weeks, and he has acknowledged to associates that if he goes ahead with forming a political party, he would damage his relationship with the vice president, the people said.

Musk and his associates have told people close to him that he is considering using some of his vast financial resources to back Vance if he decides to run for president in 2028, some of the people said. Musk spent close to $300 million to support Trump and other Republicans in the 2024 election.

WSJ was careful to note that Musk or his team didn't respond to requests for comment. So it's only a matter of time before Musk comments about the story on X.

Interestingly, WSJ sources reported that the America First Party canceled meetings with third-party organizers, including notable figures such as Andrew Yang and Mark Cuban. Yang and Cuban are weak men in the era of 'MAGA' - probably for the best. 

Steven Nekhaila, chair of the Libertarian National Committee, confirmed to WSJ that Musk's team has had an "eerie silence" and "doesn't seem like anything has been in action, neither at the state level or at the ground level." 

Was Musk's America First Party merely political theater, as the billionaire pivoted from neutering the Democratic Party through DOGE strike teams in federal agencies back to the private sector, aiming not to alienate customers amid weakening Tesla sales?

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 07:20

What GAO Found After the enactment of the Children’s Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (CHIPRA) of 2009, large tax rate differences among similar smoking tobacco products led to market shifts among these products. Specifically, CHIPRA increased tax rate differences between roll-your-own and pipe tobacco and between small cigars and some large cigars, creating opportunities for tax avoidance and leading manufacturers and consumers to substitute lower-taxed tobacco products for higher-taxed ones. These trends have continued, and the generally lower-taxed products—pipe tobacco and large cigars—have remained the top products in their respective markets. Examples of Cigarette and Cigar products Federal revenue from tobacco excise taxes has decreased from about $14 billion in fiscal year 2014 to $9 billion in fiscal year 2024 as sales of smoking tobacco products have declined. In addition, the extent to which the increased use of e-cigarettes and oral nicotine pouches has affected the market for traditional smoking tobacco products is unknown. Federal revenue would likely increase if Congress were to increase the tax rate for pipe tobacco to match the current rate for roll-your-own tobacco. GAO estimated that if the tax rate for pipe tobacco were the same as the roll-your-own tobacco rate, the federal government could collect at least $1.5 billion dollars in additional revenue for both products from fiscal year 2025 through fiscal year 2029. Similarly, federal revenue would likely increase if the minimum tax rate for large cigars were the same as the small cigar rate. However, a precise estimate is challenging to determine because of limited information about the retail prices of large cigars and consumer response to increased taxes. Further, companies have filed more drawback claims since the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015 modernized and generally expanded eligibility for the drawback program, according to CBP officials. Drawbacks are refunds of up to 99 percent of duties, taxes, or fees paid on imports and may be requested by companies that export similar, qualifying goods. CBP refunded a total of $312 million in federal taxes through drawbacks for smoking tobacco products from fiscal year 2019 through fiscal year 2024. Since fiscal year 2020, companies have requested increasing amounts of drawback refunds for these products. In fiscal year 2024, these drawback refund requests totaled approximately $392 million. Why GAO Did This Study By increasing gaps in the tax rates for smoking tobacco products that are similar to each other, CHIPRA created opportunities for tax avoidance through the substitution of lower-taxed tobacco products for higher-taxed ones. Specifically, CHIPRA increased the federal excise tax rate on small cigarettes and set equivalent rates on roll-your-own tobacco and small cigars, which can be close substitutes for factory-made cigarettes. Although CHIPRA also increased the federal excise tax rates for pipe tobacco and large cigars, the tax rates for cigarettes, roll-your-own tobacco, and small cigars are generally higher. In 2012, 2014, and 2019, GAO reported that sales of lower-taxed pipe tobacco and large cigars saw immediate and significant growth following CHIPRA. In addition, GAO estimated the amount of revenue lost by the federal government because of these market shifts. As part of GAO’s work on duplication, overlap, fragmentation, cost savings, and revenue enhancement in response to a provision in statute, GAO examined, among other things, (1) how much additional revenue the federal government could collect if tobacco tax rate disparities were eliminated and (2) how much revenue the federal government refunds to companies  through qualified drawback claims for taxes paid on tobacco imports that are later exported or destroyed. GAO analyzed sales and revenue data about smoking tobacco products from the Department of the Treasury and Customs and Border Protection (CBP), interviewed industry experts and agency officials, and summarized literature about these products and alternatives. GAO also modeled the effects on revenue of equalizing the tax rates for pipe tobacco and roll-your-own tobacco and establishing a minimum tax rate for large cigars equal to the small cigar tax rate. In addition, GAO analyzed CBP data about drawback refunds requested and finalized for smoking tobacco products.

What GAO Found As of August 2025, EXIM was not monitoring the end use of any dual-use export because all such transactions had been repaid in full. EXIM did not finance any new exports under its dual-use authority in fiscal year 2024, according to EXIM authorization data and EXIM officials. Why GAO Did This Study EXIM's mission is to support the export of U.S. goods and services overseas through loans, loan guarantees, and insurance, thereby supporting U.S. jobs. In 1994, Congress passed legislation authorizing EXIM to facilitate the financing of U.S. exports of defense articles and services with both civilian and military applications, provided that the bank determines such dual-use items are nonlethal and primarily meant for civilian end use. Included in the same act was a provision for GAO, in consultation with EXIM, to report annually on the end uses of dual-use exports financed by EXIM during the second preceding fiscal year. This report (1) examines the status of EXIM's monitoring of dual-use exports that it continued to finance in fiscal year 2023, as of August 2025, and (2) identifies any new dual-use exports that EXIM financed in fiscal year 2024. To address these objectives, GAO reviewed EXIM documentation and data on dual-use exports and interviewed EXIM officials. For more information, contact Nagla’a El-Hodiri at elhodirin@gao.gov.

I believe I would wait a few years more (after being declared safe) before swimming in the Chicago River. If you grew up in Chicago like I did, you would know the river was in bad shape from all the stuff being dumped into it and street run off. The redeeming qualities of the area […]

The post Something, I Probably Would Not Do – Chicago appeared first on Angry Bear.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 15, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 23 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 23 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates increased slightly last week, with the 30-year fixed rate now at 6.68 percent. Applications were down as a result, driven by a 16 percent decrease in VA applications, which are a typically volatile segment of the market,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “FHA refinance applications increased over the week, as the FHA rate, at 6.39 percent, remained competitive relative to other loan types. Purchase applications were little changed over the week but were at the strongest pace in four weeks and continued to run well ahead of last year’s pace. Prospective homebuyers remain more active compared to last year despite economic headwinds and uncertainty and affordability challenges.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.68 percent from 6.67 percent, with points decreasing to 0.60 from 0.64 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 23% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index decreased after picking a little up recently with lower mortgage rates.

Is A Second Wave Of Inflation Coming?

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Commentary

The Trump administration has been urging a cut in interest rates. The reasons are obvious. This would make home loans more affordable, reduce pressure on government interest payments, and spur business investment.

But there is a genuine downside that should also be considered. Lower rates also risk fanning the flames of inflation. Even now, the devastation from the last five years is very obvious to all. And it’s hardly gone: the CPI came in fairly hot last week.

In three to four years, the prices of everything have shot up. You know the story with housing prices: double in many places. You feel it every time you go to the grocery store. Meat has again taken an upturn. Groceries in general are up nearly 40 percent in these strange years. They are not going back either. We are stuck and the American household is squeezed as never before.

Groceries are particularly painful because you feel it every day.

Wholesale prices reflected in the Producer Price Index (PPI) have shown new energy too. That’s particularly unsettling because it foreshadows new price pressure on the consumer side too.

The PPI came in at an intolerable 3.3 percent. That’s not entirely attributable to tariffs. In fact, all evidence points to the ways importers are eating the tariffs themselves via lower profit margins but this is not yet being passed on to consumers. The price energy on the wholesale side seems to have monetary origins.

David Stockman comments: “The wholesale price index excluding food and energy has risen by a fulsome 33.3 percent since January 2017 when the Trump Era began. That is, for the past eight and one-half years the basic wholesale price index has been climbing relentlessly higher at a 3.4 percent annual rate. Do that for two decades and a dollar earned or saved today will buy exactly 51 cents.”

Other indexes confirm some upward inflation pressure. The Truflation index has been the most credible of the last five years. It is also showing upward movement in consumer goods and services. It’s not over 2 percent in general but it is far higher than its low from January and February.

It’s a good time to check in on the main monetary aggregate, which is M2 (the Fed broke M1 back in 2020 for unknown reasons). This is the number to watch to see future price trends. The COVID period saw the biggest increases on record combined with zero interest rates. The Fed then vacuumed much of the excess out of the system. But those efforts then stopped before the 2024 election. The monetary aggregate now stands where it was at its peak.

That said, we have seen an upward trend in the rate of money creation. It is now trending toward 5 percent, which is very high and risky. This is without rate cuts. With more rate cuts, the trends would accelerate.

None of these numbers bode well for avoiding the worst fear of economists. The concern traces to the famous three waves of inflation from the 1970s. It kicked off, pulled back, came back higher and pulled back, and then the third wave hit with a ferocity that no one saw coming.

Anyone who lived through it will never forget. It came about following the end of the gold standard. The experts predicted the best monetary system ever. Once again, the experts were wrong. Then they blamed the American people for consuming too much.

Government was reduced to distributing WIN buttons: Whip Inflation Now.

None of this three-wave pattern was intentional. It traces to the arrogance of the central bankers in thinking that they had conquered the previous inflation. Once they believed the coast was clear, they lowered rates and pursued a looser policy. They could not control the machinery the way they believed and their actions kicked off a second wave.

One might suppose that would be enough to prevent yet another reckless cut but nope. They did it anyway. That’s when inflation hit double digits, gutted the U.S. capital stock, bankrupted households, and forced millions of young mothers into the workforce just to pay the bills. The finances of the American household never really recovered from this disaster.

We simply cannot afford to risk this yet again. Trump certainly does not want this on his watch. Another round of inflation would discredit the whole of his second term. It would likely be blamed on tariffs. This is the risk. One hopes that he does not get his wish of a Fed rate cut. Nothing could be worse for his presidency.

In this way, Jerome Powell is correct to resist the calls for a rate cut. He is not being ornery. He is the rare case of a responsible central banker, at least for now. The worry is that his replacement will have one job only and that is to lower rates further. Keep in mind that in real terms, short-term rates are not actually high right now once you consider inflation.

Monetary policy in general is an insidious influence over U.S. politics. Every new president wants lower rates in order to generate the appearance of higher growth. Also, lower rates reduce pressure to cut the budget because they cause the servicing of the debt to fall on the margin, thus freeing revenue for other forms of expenditures.

That said, there are always consequences to artificially low rates. They distort production structures toward capital goods industry, blow up housing prices with new demand, and further financialize an already highly leveraged financial industry. They also create the condition for more inflation down the line. It could be a year or two but it will eventually come.

This is the danger. The Trump administration needs to put a priority on killing inflation. The rumors of its death were greatly exaggerated, and the price pressure is already clawing its way out of the coffin and through the dirt. Beware! This is no time to lower rates. It’s in the long-term political interest of the Trump administration to generate economic growth the old-fashioned way: through saving and investment, not fiat money.

The second wave is not here yet. But there are already reasons to be on the lookout.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 06:30

Robot Nearly Decapitates Man In Gruesome Surgery Fail

In a shocking incident that underscores the growing dangers of industrial automation, Chinese surgeons have pulled off what medical experts are calling a miracle surgery after a robotic arm nearly decapitated a factory worker in a horrific accident in May that has only now come to light through China's state-controlled media apparatus.

The gruesome workplace incident left the unidentified man with what doctors described as an "internal decapitation" - his cervical vertebrae completely severed and critical arteries damaged, with only soft tissue keeping his head attached to his body. The worker immediately suffered paralysis and went into cardiac arrest at the scene, according to South China Morning Post, citing the Chinese medical publication Yixue Jie.

Medical teams at Shanghai Changzheng Hospital faced a gory challenge when the patient arrived in critical condition, with both of his vertebral arteries obstructed and his blood pressure having collapsed to life-threatening levels.

Advanced imaging revealed the full scope of the catastrophic injuries: one artery had completely ruptured and was blocked by bone fragments and blood clots, while the other was stretched to its breaking point and barely maintaining any blood flow to the brain.

"We have looked through much literature at home and abroad, but have never come across a case of such severe cervical vertebra separation, let alone one that survived after treatment," said Chen Huajiang, director of the hospital's cervical spine surgery department, as quoted by SCMP.

The medical team determined that emergency surgery represented the patient's only shot at survival, but the procedure carried enormous risks that could have proven fatal in seconds. Any disruption of the existing blood clots could have triggered catastrophic hemorrhaging - with doctors estimating potential blood loss of up to 2,000 milliliters in a matter of seconds.

Adding to the complexity, extensive damage to the skin on the back of the patient's neck meant that opening the surgical site risked introducing deadly bacteria into the cerebrospinal fluid, potentially causing a fatal brain infection. The patient's precarious state also prevented doctors from conducting standard pre-operative imaging and basic medical assessments.

Despite these overwhelming challenges, a multidisciplinary surgical team took the extraordinary risk on June 18, performing a marathon three-hour operation to remove the life-threatening clot, realign the shattered cervical bones, and stabilize the spine using two auxiliary plates, marking the first reported use of this technique in such a severe case.

"Although it seems that we were merely moving bones, surrounding blood vessels and nerves were also being tugged as we operated. We had to avoid secondary injuries while striving for a high success rate," Chen explained.

Despite warnings from some in China about the risks of defective combat robots, the government is aggressively advancing AI-driven battlefield systems. Recent tactical exercises featuring "robotic wolves" underscore Beijing's rapid push toward unmanned warfare.

The China’s 76th Group Army's recent drills focused on battlefield coordination between human personnel and autonomous technologies designed for reconnaissance, strategic point clearing, fire support and breaching defensive positions, according to official military statements. These exercises represent China's latest and most aggressive effort to advance unmanned warfare capabilities as part of the growing global arms race in military robotics.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 20:30

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for July (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• AT 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Meeting of July 29-30

Malfunctioning Insulin Pumps Recalled After Multiple Injuries

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

San Diego-based Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. agreed to voluntarily recall insulin pumps used to manage blood sugar, the company said in an Aug. 12 announcement by the Food and Drug Administration.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in White Oak, Md., on June 5, 2023. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Insulin pumps are wearable devices that deliver insulin at predetermined doses at specific times. Such devices can feature alarm functions to alert users about various situations, such as issues with insulin delivery.

The recalled product, the t:slim X2 insulin pump, is being withdrawn to “address a potential speaker-related issue that can trigger an error resulting in a discontinuation of insulin delivery,” the announcement reads.

“The error, which appears as a Malfunction 16 alarm to the user, will stop insulin delivery and terminate communication between the insulin pump and the continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) device,” it reads.

Continuous glucose monitoring devices constantly track a user’s glucose levels, sending the information to devices such as cell phones, allowing for real-time monitoring of glucose levels.

The malfunction could result in hyperglycemia—high blood sugar—due to the insulin delivery being discontinued and other factors, the company said.

According to the announcement, Tandem has already received 700 confirmed adverse event reports involving high blood sugar and situations that required users to seek medical intervention. Although no deaths have been reported, there have been 59 injuries, it said.

Tandem said it has already informed impacted U.S. customers about the issue through a notice sent between July 22 and July 24.

The notice listed several actions users can take to deal with the malfunction, including preparing a backup method of insulin delivery. It asked users to regularly check their blood sugar levels to ensure they do not have any unexpected high or low readings.

In the Aug. 12 announcement, Tandem said that it will be “releasing a software update designed to enhance early detection of speaker failure.”

“This update will also introduce persistent vibration alerts to help reduce potential safety risk,” it stated.

“Tandem will notify all pump users when the software update becomes available, and to request pump users complete the update of their insulin pump.”

Users can verify whether their insulin pump is included in the recall by entering the device’s serial number on the Tandem website.

Customers with queries can contact the company at 877-801-6901.

Tandem did not respond to a request for comment.

350,000 Insulin Pump Users

Tandem had issued a separate recall of its t:slim X2 insulin pump in February this year, according to FDA data.

That recall was tied to a software defect that could lead to insulin being under-delivered or over-delivered, thus resulting in “severe cases of hypoglycemia or hyperglycemia,” the FDA said.

The recall status is still listed as “open,” according to the agency, indicating the company has not corrected or removed all faulty products.

According to a June 2022 study, there are an estimated 350,000 insulin pump users in the United States. However, they account for only a small portion of people with diabetes.

About 38 million American adults are estimated to have diabetes, and one out of five people are unaware that they have it, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a May 2024 post.

“In the United States, about 1 in 3 adults has prediabetes. More than 8 in 10 people with prediabetes don’t know they have it,” it said.

“With prediabetes, blood sugar levels are higher than normal, but not high enough for a type 2 diabetes diagnosis. Prediabetes raises your risk for type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and stroke,” the CDC stated.

“Prediabetes and type 2 diabetes can be prevented with lifestyle changes. Currently, no one knows how to prevent type 1 diabetes.”

According to the agency, diabetes is the eighth leading cause of death and the No. 1 cause of adult blindness, lower-limb amputations, and kidney failure.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 18:25

MSNBC To Change Name And Rebrand After "Corporate Divorce" From NBC

When a news company is forced to completely rebrand to distance themselves politically from their parent company, you know they have hit rock bottom. 

The MSNBC news network announced this week that they will be rebranding and will become My Source New Opinion World (MS NOW).  They will also be removing the NBC Peacock from their logo.  The network, which features a stable of personalities including Rachel Maddow, Ari Melber and Nicole Wallace is notorious for their far-left hot takes and extreme anti-Trump bias in their reporting.  This image has led to plunging ratings in recent months.

Both MSNBC and CNN dealt with staggering losses in viewership over the past year while Fox News enjoyed viewership gains in the cable news ratings war.  The left-leaning networks suffered year-over-year declines in all major metrics for the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year, according to the latest Nielsen data, which was reported by AdWeek. 

Comcast-owned MSNBC drew an average 1.008 million primetime viewers from April to June, a year-over-year decline of 15%, Nielsen figures show.  In the the advertiser-covered 25-to-54 demographic, primetime viewership dropped 20%, to 91,000 compared to last year.  

The news platform has become an embarrassment for parent companies NBC Universal and Comcast.  The name change was ordered by NBC Universal, which last November spun off cable networks USA, CNBC, MSNBC, E! Entertainment, Oxygen and the Golf Channel into its own company, called Versant. None of the other networks are changing their name.  

MSNBC got its moniker upon its formation in 1996 as a partnership between Microsoft and NBC. The name remained, even after the NBC partnership with Microsoft that produced it ended.  Versant CEO Mark Lazarus said in the initial days of the spinoff that "MSNBC" would stay, which makes this week's announcement a surprise.  A branding change of this nature will likely crush the company's ratings even further, but it would appear that MSNBC has been deemed an acceptable loss for NBC and Comcast.

It is also likely that pundits like Rachel Maddow (who has already taken a pay cut) will be out of a job in the near term.   

The social distancing away from the sickly network is due to its terrible ratings, but also the ongoing political shift in the US towards moderate and conservative ideals.  The Democrats burned every possible bridge and every ounce of political capital they had during Joe Biden's presidency.  MSNBC was a integral part of the Biden Administration's propaganda blitz.

The combination of covid fear mongering, their defense of the BLM riots, their defense of the transgender indoctrination of children, their incessant accusations of J6 "insurrection", their dismissal of the Hunter Biden Laptop story, their open support for mass illegal immigration not to mention their delusional predictions for Kamala Harris during the 2024 election campaign has tainted MSNBC's image beyond repair. 

Some critics point out that MSNBC has been losing viewers (and money) for many years; why are they being retooled now?  We once again have to wonder if the shutdown of federal subsidies from agencies like USAID has anything to do with the accelerated extinction of leftist media.  When big names like Stephen Colbert get cut and MSNBC goes into witness protection, it's as if the cash flow keeping leftist platforms afloat suddenly dried up.

One positive result from MSNBC's existence is that they unknowingly expedited the demise of the legacy media with their lunacy.  The public has increasingly turned to the alternative media and long form content for their information, which will ultimately lead to a better educated population.  Thanks, MSNBC!  We salute you!

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 18:00

Global Nuclear Power Generation Hits Record High As Asia Surges Ahead

Authored by Robert Rapier via OilPrice.com,

• Global nuclear generation reached 2,817 TWh in 2024, surpassing the previous record from 2021, with most growth coming from non-OECD countries.

• Asia Pacific, led by China’s 13% annual growth rate, now accounts for over 28% of global nuclear output, marking a major geopolitical and energy shift.

• While Eastern Europe, the UAE, and select other nations expand nuclear capacity, Western Europe and North America face stagnation, retirements, or policy-driven phaseouts.

Nuclear power has always been a paradox. It can produce massive amounts of low-carbon electricity, yet it must constantly battle the headwinds of politics and public perception. 

The latest Statistical Review of World Energy shows that while nuclear generation is growing globally—setting a new record high in 2024—the trend is anything but uniform. Some countries are charging ahead, while others are stepping back.

Global Output: Modest Growth, Unevenly Shared

In 2024, global nuclear generation reached 2,817 terawatt-hours, a modest uptick from 2023, but surpassing the previous all-time high set in 2021. 

Over the past decade, output has grown at a 2.6% annual rate—slow, but a clear recovery from the post-Fukushima slump. That growth is heavily skewed toward non-OECD countries, which are building new capacity at a faster pace (3.0% annual growth) than the flat-to-declining trend in OECD nations (2.5%).

Asia Pacific: The New Center of Gravity 

The most dramatic shift is happening in Asia Pacific, now responsible for over 28% of global nuclear output—over double its share from a decade ago:

• As with renewables, China is in a league of its own, with output soaring from 213 TWh in 2014 to more than 450 TWh in 2024—an annual growth rate near 13%.

• India and South Korea also posted steady gains, though on a smaller scale.

This marks a clear geopolitical shift. Nuclear power is no longer dominated by Western democracies, but by countries with state-driven, long-term infrastructure agendas.

North America: Stable, but Aging

The United States still leads the world in nuclear output at roughly 850 TWh annually (29.2% of the world’s total nuclear output), but beneath the stability is a slow attrition of older plants and a lack of new construction. 

But the U.S. had its biggest nuclear milestone in decades in 2023 and 2024 with the startup of Vogtle Unit 3, followed by Unit 4. Located in Georgia, Vogtle is the first newly built nuclear power plant in the United States in more than 30 years, and its completion marks the end of a long, costly construction saga plagued by delays and budget overruns. Together, the two new reactors added more than 2,200 megawatts of capacity—enough to power over a million homes—and provide a rare example of nuclear expansion in a country where most growth has come from extending the lives of existing plants. 

Canada’s output has slipped from 106 TWh in 2016 to 85 TWh in 2024, reflecting plant refurbishments and changing policies. Mexico, a small player, has seen big year-to-year swings, which may indicate operational challenges.

Europe: A Story of Contrasts

Western Europe is drifting away from nuclear:

• France, long the gold standard for nuclear reliability, has seen output fall from 442 TWh in 2016 to just 338 TWh last year, hampered by maintenance issues and political uncertainty.

• Germany is now at zero after completing its nuclear phase-out.

• Belgium, Switzerland, and Sweden are split between retirements and life extensions.

In Eastern Europe, the picture is brighter. The Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia are increasing output, while Ukraine has managed to maintain over 50 TWh annually despite wartime disruptions.

Emerging Regions: Small Shares, Big Moves

In Latin America, Brazil and Argentina are holding steady around 15–25 TWh, with Brazil inching higher. Africa’s only nuclear producer, South Africa, remains flat at about 13 TWh. The Middle East has a new entrant in the UAE, which ramped from zero in 2019 to over 40 TWh in 2024 thanks to the Barakah plant—an impressive buildout in such a short time.

The Outliers

• Japan has restarted some reactors, but its output remains far below pre-Fukushima levels—84 TWh last year versus more than 300 TWh in 2010.

• Taiwan is phasing out nuclear, with production falling from 42 TWh in 2016 to just 12 TWh in 2024.

• Pakistan and Iran continue steady, if modest, growth.

Final Thoughts

The global nuclear landscape is diverging. Some countries are doubling down, driven by the twin imperatives of energy security and climate action, while others are walking away. The center of gravity is moving away from traditional Western producers toward nations prepared to back nuclear with long-term capital and policy support.

For investors, the next wave of growth is likely to come from Asia and the Middle East, not the historical powerhouses of Europe and North America. That shift carries environmental upside as well—especially in China, the world’s largest carbon emitter. Every gigawatt China moves from coal to nuclear represents a major win in the fight to reduce carbon emissions.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 17:40

Trump Taps Missouri's Firebrand AG For #2 Job At FBI

President Trump is planning to appoint Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey to share the #2 position at the FBI with Dan Bongino, for now, to serve as "an integral part of this important mission," according to a statement from Director Kash Patel. 

Bailey announced his resignation on Monday in order to take on the new role. 

"My life has been defined by a call to service, and I am once again answering that call, this time at the national level," Bailey said in a statement. 

Some have interpreted this as the beginning of the end for Bongino - who has clashed with Attorney General Pam Bondi over the release of the Epstein files - leading the former podcaster to leave work for several days in July.

According to the NY Times (so who knows), "People close to Mr. Trump were unhappy with Mr. Bongino’s display of anger, but believed that having him leave his job could undermine the president."

Trump was expected to have announced Bailey's move on Monday, according to Politico. 

Bailey, a former prosecutor who has been Missouri's AG since January 2023, interviewed with Trump at Mar-a-Lago during the transition as a potential pick for US Attorney General. His tenure as AG has included several high-profile moves to help Trump and his interests, including a petition filed last year with the US Supreme Court seeking to lift a gag order against Trump and delay sentencing in his New York trial until after the Nov. 5 election. 

Former Missouri House Speaker Catherine Hanaway, meanwhile, has been appointed by Gov. Mike Kehoe to replace Bailey at the state's next AG. After serving out Bailey's term, which runs until the end of 2028, Hanaway told reporters on Tuesday that she plans to seek a full term of her own. 

"My game plan, for sure, is to serve the next three years," she said, adding "and then if Missourians will vote for me and believe I earned a full term, then I’d like to serve a full term."

Hanawway was the state's first female speaker of the House, eventually leaving politics to focus on her law practice. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 17:20