Democrats Continue Blaming Data Centers For Power Bill Crisis, Ignore Biden-Era Inflation Spike By Green Policies

The clash of narratives is well underway, with Democrats blaming data centers and Republicans blaming "delusional climate cultist ideology" for a power-bill inflation crisis that is crippling working-poor families and increasingly stressing middle-income and even some higher-income households.

On Tuesday, left-wing Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, and Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut sent a letter to Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and three other companies, seeking answers on whether the explosive growth of AI data centers is driving up electricity bills for households and small businesses.

"We write in light of alarming reports that tech companies are passing on the costs of building and operating their data centers to ordinary Americans, as A.I. data centers' energy usage has caused residential electricity bills to skyrocket in nearby communities," the senators said. This letter was first reported by the NYT. 

Democrats have been running on an affordability narrative, attempting to pin lingering Biden-Harris-regime-era inflation on the Trump administration. Biden's nation-killing policies, including out-of-control "climate crisis" spending, green de-growth initiatives, and heavy regulation, produced a toxic cocktail of generationally high inflation that has financially crushed tens of millions of working-poor households. The Trump administration is working to correct this.

Let's remind Democrats that U.S. CPI Electricity SA first began skyrocketing under the Biden-Harris regime.

We've outlined the competing narratives at play from both political parties.

• Electric Bill Crisis Blame Game Begins: Democrats Slam Data Centers, GOP Faults "Climate-Cult Ideology"

Why are Democratic senators conveniently ignoring the last four years of the Biden-Harris regime's failed green policies?

And now Democrats, who sparked the inflation crisis, are acting as if they should once again be the saviors of the economy, pitching revolutionary ideas such as socialism and Marxism.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 13:00

Will The Oil Curse Strike South America's Wealthiest Country?

Authored by Matthew Smith via OilPrice.com,

• Guyana’s offshore oil discoveries have driven explosive GDP growth, propelling it into the global top tier by income per capita.

• Heavy dependence on petroleum revenues, weak institutions, and geopolitical pressure from Venezuela raise serious risks of an oil curse.

• Despite massive state spending and infrastructure investment, much of the population remains poor, highlighting deep distributional challenges.

In a remarkable turnaround, the tiny South American country of Guyana, once one of the continent’s poorest nations, now ranks among the world’s top 10 wealthiest countries by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. In a mere decade, Guyana went from first discovery to be lifting nearly 900,000 barrels of crude oil per day from the prolific 6.6-million-acre Stabroek Block. This, despite the lopsided deal favoring the ExxonMobil-led consortium, which controls the oil acreage, has delivered a massive economic windfall. There are concerns that this breakneck economic growth and the massive income generated by oil will see Guyana struck by the oil curse.

In a recent survey ranking the world’s wealthiest countries using projected 2025 GDP by purchasing power parity per capita, Guyana ranked in 10th place, compared to 107th a decade earlier. This put the former British colony behind wealthy countries like Brunei, Switzerland and Norway but, surprisingly, ahead of the world’s second largest economy, the United States of America. Indeed, Guyana’s GDP by purchasing power parity has skyrocketed since oil production began in December 2019. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) it rose sevenfold, from $10.69 billion that year, to an estimated $75.24 billion for 2025.

That immense economic expansion saw Guyana, for a brief period, become the world’s fastest-growing economy. From 2022 to 2024, the tiny country of less than one million reported annual GDP growth rates of 63.3%, 33.8% and 43.6% respectively, by far the highest each of those years for a sovereign state.

While growth has dropped off over recent months, despite petroleum output rising because of the start-up of the Yellowtail project, the former British colony’s economy is forecast to expand by 10.3% in 2025. This makes Guyana the world’s third fastest-growing economy this year.

The latest government data shows Guyana is pumping around 900,000 barrels per day, making the tiny country South America’s third-largest oil producer behind Brazil and Venezuela. Petroleum production will continue to grow with Exxon developing three additional projects in the Stabroek Block. These are the Uaru, Whiptail and Hammerhead developments with a proposed fourth facility, Longtail, subject to regulatory review. On completion of those three facilities, which start up between 2026 and 2029, will add 650,000 barrels daily, lifting Guyana’s total potential production to 1,5 million barrels per day.

There is a fourth facility under development, although it has yet to be approved. This is the 2018 Longtail discovery, which was the Exxon-led consortium’s fourth find in the Stabroek Block. The $12.5 billion Longtail project, unlike earlier developments, will be a natural gas and condensate facility. It is currently undergoing environmental permitting, with Exxon expecting to make a final investment decision (FID) by the end of 2026. Once approved, it is anticipated Longtail will come online during 2030, adding up to 1.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas and 290,000 barrels of condensate daily. This will lift Guyana’s hydrocarbon output to over 1.7 million barrels per day.

Once those offshore petroleum assets are operational, the oil produced will boost the former British colony’s GDP. The IMF predicts that between 2025 and 2030, Guyana’s GDP, based on purchasing power parity, will more than double from $75 million to $156 million. That for a country of less than one million translates to an impressive GDP per capita of just under $193,000. When using this metric, it will make Guyana the world’s second-wealthiest nation, behind Liechtenstein and ahead of Singapore. Such a massive concentration of wealth generated by a single resource, petroleum, is sparking considerable fear that Guyana will be impacted by the oil curse.

This is a phenomenon where a country blessed with copious petroleum resources becomes completely economically and financially dependent on crude oil. This typically leads to poor governance, extreme corruption, malfeasance, democratic backsliding, political instability and eventually internal conflict. A prime example of the oil curse, along with the social, political and economic impact it has on petroleum-dependent nations, is Venezuela. Decades of economic over-dependence on crude oil negatively affected Venezuela’s development, destabilising the country and eventually leading to dictatorship and economic collapse.

Incidentally, the Stabroek Block, which is estimated to contain recoverable oil resources of at least 11 billion barrels, has become a target for Caracas. After Exxon made a swathe of world-class discoveries in the offshore acreage, Venezuela’s president, Nicolas Maduro, ratcheted up his sabre-rattling and aggressive rhetoric as part of his campaign to reclaim the long-disputed Essequibo region. This area, comparable in size to the state of Georgia, comprises two-thirds of Guyana’s territory and is rich in precious metals, diamonds, copper, iron, aluminium, bauxite, and manganese.

You see, the prolific Stabroek Block lies in Guyana’s territorial waters that are part of the disputed Essequibo region, an area claimed by Venezuela since independence. Caracas over the last three years has intensified its campaign to regain control of the Essequibo, even threatening to invade the region. There are regular skirmishes between Guyana’s army and Venezuelan gangs on the border between the two countries in the Essequibo. Venezuelan military vessels have entered the Stabroek Block to harass and intimidate the crews of the Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSOs) operating in the offshore oil acreage.

There are very real fears that Guyana, which is a developing country with a history of corruption, lacks the good governance and institutional stability to effectively manage this massive economic windfall generated by this once-in-a-generation oil boom. Already, concerns are emerging about how Georgetown is spending the vast oil profits flowing into government coffers. Georgetown has embarked on a massive infrastructure boom, budgeting $1.2 billion in public works for 2025 to fund new roads, bridges, the development of a world-class deepwater port and public goods such as hospitals. There are, however, considerable concerns that many Guaynese are not benefiting from the tremendous economic windfall generated by oil.

Despite the economy growing at a stunning rate, a sizable portion of the population still lives in poverty. Analysts claim that up to 58% of Guyanese live below the poverty line, although an accurate number is difficult to determine because of a lack of official data. The World Bank estimated in 2019 that 48% of Guyana’s population lives below the poverty line. Despite the economy’s rapid growth, community leaders, nonetheless, claim that much of the wealth generated by the oil boom has yet to trickle down to Guyana’s poorest communities, especially in rural regions.

Those fears are exacerbated by Georgetown’s growing dependence on volatile international energy markets, at a time when the outlook for crude oil is poor. The international Brent benchmark price is down 17% over the last year, which is sharply impacting oil revenues. Analysts from major financial institutions are forecasting that Brent could plunge into the $30 per barrel range by 2027 due to overwhelming market supply. Unsurprisingly, the rapid development of Guyana’s offshore oilfields is a key contributor to this massive jump in non-OPEC global supply growth.

This will sharply impact Georgetown’s newly found oil riches. As international oil prices plunge due to an overwhelming supply glut, Guyana’s petroleum revenue will plummet. This will be exacerbated by 75% of the petroleum produced from the Stabroek Block being classified as cost oil, thus seeing it excluded from royalties and profit-sharing payments with Guyana. While this will not be enough to roil Guyana’s newfound economic boom it has the potential to trigger corruption and malfeasance, leading to uneven development while damaging an increasingly petroleum-dependent economy.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 12:40

DOJ Sues States For Voter Information - What To Know

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) is suing 18 states that refused to hand over voter registration information following a series of requests made earlier this year.

The U.S. Department of Justice in Washington on Oct. 21, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The DOJ said it wants to inspect voter rolls to make sure they are clean and up-to-date, while some states said they are worried the government has ulterior motives in requesting the information.

On Dec. 12, the department added Fulton County, Georgia, to that list; there, the government is asking for records related to the 2020 election.

Here’s what to know about the lawsuits.

The Requests

The DOJ’s inquiry began in May with a letter to Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold asking for voter information and certification that the state had not destroyed any records it was legally obligated to retain.

The letter said the DOJ wanted to ensure that Colorado was in compliance with the Voting Rights Act 52 U.S.C. 20701, which requires states to retain election information, including voter registrations, for 22 months following presidential and congressional races.

Similar requests went out to at least 40 states, but Maria Benson, spokeswoman for the National Association of Secretaries of State, said the DOJ told her “all states would be contacted eventually.”

The requests were sent out following President Donald Trump’s executive order asking the DOJ to verify that states were checking citizenship status for those who registered to vote, in compliance with the National Voter Registration Act.

A few states, like Minnesota, are exempt from the National Voter Registration Act. In those cases, the DOJ cited the Help America Vote Act, which requires similar preservation of voter records, and requires each state to maintain a single, computerized database of its registered voters.

Notably, the DOJ’s request to Minnesota also asked for other information, such as how the state struck deceased voters from its rolls, and how it dealt with duplicate registrations. It also asked the state to explain its procedures for identifying non-citizen voters.

In Nebraska, the DOJ asked for full voter registration data, including “full name, date of birth, residential address, his or her state driver’s license number or the last four digits of the registrant’s social security number.”

The Fulton County suit is different, in that it follows a July resolution passed by the State Election Board of Georgia “calling upon the assistance of the Attorney General to effect compliance with voting transparency.”

In October, the DOJ responded by requesting “all used and void ballots, stubs of all ballots, signature envelopes, and corresponding envelope digital files from the 2020 General Election in Fulton County.”

Fulton County officials rejected that request, saying the records “remain under seal” and will not be produced without a court order.

The Fulton request is notable, not just because it stems from internal state action, but because Trump narrowly lost Georgia in 2020 by fewer than 12,000 votes.

The Refusal

Only two states, Indiana and Wyoming, fully complied.

Some states, like Washington, responded by giving only part of the requested information, citing privacy concerns or legal prohibitions.

“While we will provide the DOJ with the voter registration data that state law already makes public, we will not compromise the privacy of Washington voters by turning over confidential information that both state and federal law prohibit us from disclosing,” Washington Secretary of State Steve Hobbs said in a statement.

Hobbs, in a letter to Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon, said Washington state law gave the federal government the right to some information, but not voters’ driver’s license and social security numbers.

Sens. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) also issued a public letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi opposing the DOJ’s inspection, calling it a plan “to use sensitive state voter information to create a national voter database, without any direction from Congress or guardrails on how the information in the database will be used.”

“Put simply, it is neither the Department’s job nor its skillset to micromanage how election officials purge voters from state voter rolls,” the senators said.

Among other inquiries, their letter asks Bondi to clarify fully how the DOJ intends to use the information, and what protocols are in place to protect voter privacy.

The Lawsuits

The DOJ has sued 18 states, saying Title III of the Civil Rights Act of 1960 requires states to turn this information over to the attorney general upon request.

So far the Justice Department has sued California, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Colorado, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Washington.

Many of these cases were delayed by the government shutdown and are still in the early stages of litigation. Oregon and Pennsylvania have filed motions to dismiss, but most other states have asked courts for extra time to respond to the suit.

Nebraska resident Dawn Essink, backed by voter advocacy group Common Cause, has sued State Secretary Robert Evnen, hoping to stop the information disclosure.

“Under current [Nebraska] law, local and state election officials are prohibited from disclosing a voter’s birth date, driver’s license information, or social security number,” their complaint reads.

A similar lawsuit was filed in South Carolina, and a judge temporarily blocked the state from releasing the records to the DOJ. That block was later overturned by the state Supreme Court.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 12:05

Goldman's First Take On Safety Monitor-Free Robotaxis In Austin

On Monday, Goldman analyst Mark Delaney highlighted comments from Elon Musk and key Tesla executives touting robotaxi operations in Austin, Texas, with no safety monitors.

Testing is underway with no occupants in the car

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 14, 2025

"We believe that removing the monitor for testing shows that Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology," Delaney told clients.

The analysts provided more color on what this development means for scaling driverless operations:

We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla's approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability. As we have previously written, we believe how fast Tesla can scale its operating design domain or ODD (e.g. service area and the weather it works in) from a technical capability standpoint will be particularly important, and we think vehicle cost is a somewhat less important variable for profitability, given the potential ability for AV operators to amortize vehicle costs over many miles in a commercial business.

One key factor related to autonomous technology monetization is competition, given the competitive landscape both within the US and internationally for robotaxi operations (with Uber expecting to have AVs in at least 10 cities by the end of 2026 and Waymo already operating in several cities and with multiple additional planned deployments).

Specifically on the competitive landscape, we highlight several planned driverless deployments for Uber (covered by Eric Sheridan), Lyft (covered by Eric Sheridan), and Waymo robotaxis based on company announcements in the US and internationally (ex China) in Exhibits 1–3. Note that some of these overlap (e.g. in cities where Waymo and Uber partner), and we didn't include cities with testing/data collection that have a less clear commercial objective (e.g. NYC, where state law does not currently allow for commercial AV operations).

Recall we expect the US rideshare AV market to reach ~$7 bn in 2030.

Delaney also touched on over-the-air software updates that improved FSD:

We also believe Tesla is making progress with its autonomy software for consumer vehicles (which is FSD). Recall Tesla's CEO recently posted on X that the current v14.2.1 of FSD allows for texting while it is active in some cases depending on the context of surrounding traffic. We believe that the driver is still responsible for the vehicle in these situations (i.e. it is an L2 system). Additionally, the company had noted that v14.3 could be the version where customers could sleep while driving. Per crowdsourced data, v14.x currently can drive ~2,000–3,000 miles without a critical disengagement, though we acknowledge limitations may exist with this data, including controls on data collection and some disengagements not being classified by cause (e.g. lane issue, wrong speed, and other "non-critical" disengagements vs. safety issues, obstacles, or other "critical" disengagements). In addition, reviews, such as from Barron's, are showing good performance with FSD v14.

Robotaxis as a long-term profit driver for Tesla:

Recall that we previously estimated that Tesla's 2030 EPS could range from ~$2–3 to $20 (although we acknowledge there are outcomes beyond these ranges). This would assume:

1. automotive deliveries of 2–5 mn and automotive revenue ranging from approximately $75–$225 bn;

2. Services & Other revenue of $20–$40 bn (as the installed base grows);

3. Software revenue of $5–$45 bn, with the low end implying a competitive FSD market and the high end potentially driven by selling software to other OEMs;

4. Energy revenue of $35–$55 bn;

5. Robotics revenue of $3–$25 bn (based on the TAM analysis in the report led by Jacqueline Du linked here);

6. Robotaxi-related revenue of $2–$10 bn.

We assume EBIT margins ranging from the mid-to-high single digits to the low 20% range. We consider a middle-of-the-road scenario to be ~$7–$9 of EPS, which would imply what we view as balanced share in EVs and robotaxis, plus growth in its high-margin software/FSD business to a meaningful percentage of its own fleet as it begins providing eyes-off functionality for consumer vehicles (but not a meaningful software business for non-Tesla consumer vehicles).

The analysts are Neutral-rated on Tesla with a 12-month price target of $400. ZeroHedge Pro subscribers can read the full note in the usual place.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 11:45

JPMorgan Launches Its First Tokenized Money Market Fund On Ethereum

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

JPMorgan, one of the world’s biggest banks, is advancing its presence in tokenized finance by launching its first money market fund through its $4 trillion asset management arm.

The fund, My OnChain Net Yield Fund, will trade under the ticker MONY and is available on the public Ethereum blockchain, JPMorgan said in an announcement shared with Cointelegraph on Monday.

Launched via Kinexys Digital Assets, JPMorgan’s proprietary tokenization platform, MONY is a 506(c) private placement fund providing qualified investors the opportunity to earn US dollar yields by subscribing through its institutional trading platform, Morgan Money.

“With Morgan Money, tokenization can fundamentally change the speed and efficiency of transactions, adding new capabilities to traditional products,” said John Donohue, head of global liquidity at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

MONY investors can receive tokens at their blockchain addresses

By launching MONY, JPMorgan has become the largest global systemically important bank to introduce a tokenized money market fund (MMF) on a public blockchain, the bank said in the announcement.

The fund’s tokenization provides increased transparency, peer-to-peer transferability and the potential for broader collateral usage within the blockchain ecosystem, it said.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s My OnChain Net Yield Fund (MONY) is issued through Kinexys Digital Assets and is available to investors via Morgan Money. Source: JPMorgan

“This marks a significant step forward in how assets will be traded in the future,” Donohue said, highlighting the role of Morgan Money, where qualified investors can access the fund and receive tokens at their blockchain addresses.

Launched in 2019, Morgan Money provides a real-time investment dashboard and a single access point for operations, allowing investors to build stronger liquidity strategies.

“Morgan Money is the first institutional liquidity trading platform to integrate traditional and on-chain assets offering investors access to a full-range of money market products,” JPMorgan said.

Subscriptions and redemption in cash or stablecoins

According to the announcement, MONY will invest only in traditional US Treasury securities and repurchase agreements fully collateralized by US Treasury securities, allowing qualified investors to earn yield while holding the token on the blockchain.

It also offers daily dividend reinvestment, enabling investors to subscribe and redeem using cash or stablecoins through the Morgan Money platform.

Cointelegraph asked JPMorgan which stablecoins would be supported within the offering, but had not received a response at the time of publication.

JPMorgan’s MONY launch marks another milestone in the race among traditional financial institutions to introduce regulated tokenized products. The news came weeks after the company initiated the first transaction via its forthcoming fund tokenization platform, Kinexys Fund Flow, which is expected to roll out in 2026.

On Thursday, JPMorgan also announced the issuance of a US commercial paper for Galaxy Digital Holdings on the Solana blockchain, marking one of the earliest debt issuances ever executed on a public blockchain.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 11:30

Pump-Prices Plummet As Ukraine Peace Deal Progress Sparks Oil Plunge

West Texas Intermediate oil fell below $55 a barrel for the first time since February 2021, the latest sign that crude supplies are outpacing demand as the market braces for a large surplus, and further helped rising hopes for a potential peace deal in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

OilPrice.com's Charles Kennedy notes that the ongoing talks about a potential peace deal in Ukraine chipped away at a longstanding geopolitical premium on crude after reports of positive discussions and progress made. 

Rising optimism over a potential peace deal to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict added to downward pressure as U.S. officials proposed NATO-style security guarantees for Ukraine in talks with Kyiv in Berlin. 

U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that the negotiators are “closer now than we have been ever.”  

A peace agreement could ease sanctions on Russia’s oil flows and raise supply on an already well-supplied global market.  

“Oil markets will be watching developments closely, given the significant supply risk from sanctions on Russia. While Russian seaborne oil exports have held up well since the imposition of sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, this oil is still struggling to find buyers,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note on Tuesday.

“The result is a growing volume of Russian oil at sea. India, a key buyer of Russian oil since the Russia/Ukraine war began, will reportedly see imports of Russian crude fall to around 800k b/d this month, down from around 1.9m b/d in November,” the strategists added. 

As Bloomberg reports, expectations of a surplus, driven by a wave of new supply from the OPEC+ alliance and countries in the Americas, as well as subdued demand growth, drove prices down this year.

At the same time, signs of weakness are mounting across the oil market, with Middle Eastern prices entering a bearish contango pattern early on Tuesday.

Elevated premiums for fuels like gasoline and diesel relative to crude, which supported prices last month, have also eased, with national average pump-prices in the US now well below $3/gallon - the lowest since Q1 2021...

And given the lead-lag nature of the energy supply-chain, pump-prices could be set to tumble further over the holiday season...

Piling on the bearish slide (bullish for Americans' pocketbooks), US gasoline demand continues to pull back heading into the final weeks of the year amid cold weather sweeping the country.

According to US Energy Information Administration data, the four-week average of product supplied is down 320,000 barrels a day over the last three weeks, and now sits 1.3% below year-ago levels.

This is relatively in line with typical seasonal trends as driving winds down heading into the holidays, though severe winter weather may be limiting driving activity nationwide.

But, despite all this 'peace deal' optimism Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley’s global commodities strategist warned, however, that markets may be getting ahead of themselves. “We have seen this on a few occasions before and it turned out to be premature.”

Additionally, The FT reports that Energy Aspects, a consultancy, said it did not expect “a rapid peace deal” but described the latest negotiations as the biggest geopolitical wild card for the oil market, particularly during the Christmas and new year period when trading volumes are traditionally thin.

So, maybe a tank of gas is a great (affordable) Xmas gift this year?

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 11:15

Oklo Fuel Facility Hits Next Milestone

Oklo achieved their next milestone with the Department of Energy, with the approval of the Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis (PDSA) for the Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility at Idaho National Laboratory.

We previously discussed the break-neck speed at which the DoE is reviewing and approving reactor plant and fuel facility designs under the department’s Reactor Pilot Program (RPP) and Fuel Line Pilot Program (FLPP), and now the regulatory are pouring in:

• Radiant submitted their DARK, satisfying the intent of a PDSA, for the Kaleidos reactor
• Oklo received approval for their Nuclear Safety Design Agreement (NSDA) for the A3F
• Valar Atomics went critical on a pilot reactor core with DoE coordination
• Antares’s NSDA for their Mark-0 reactor was highlighted during their $96 million Series B

This latest achievement from Oklo represents the roughly 50% completion mark of the A3F design, and is first of its kind under the FLPP. The DoE is coordinating with Oklo to use existing facilities at INL to construct the fabrication plant for producing the unique metallic fuel that will be used in the first Aurora reactor.

Oklo has been working with the DoE and INL since 2019 and has leveraged the coordination over the past six years to progress as rapidly as possible through the novel DoE licensing path.  The sodium-cooled reactor development company will now be focused on the physical construction of the A3F while they prepare their Documented Safety Analysis, which will be submitted near the end of the construction process.

The assertions are still popping up everywhere that the DoE is simply rubber stamping everything that comes across their desk, in contrast to what would be a thorough and detailed review of the safety aspects of reactor plant and fuel facility designs by the NRC. However, this train of thought fails to hold for two major reasons.

1. The endless headaches that come with NRC regulation are not present under the DoE, such as town hall meetings, lawfare from environmental activists, and political-ideology-based state laws and regulations. The lack of these problems alone reduces the timeline for regulatory review by years.
2. Neither the DoE nor the reactor developer has any incentive to develop and progress a product that would not eventually meet the requirements of the NRC. As we thoroughly detailed in our coverage of the new addendum between the DoE and the NRC, there is no path to the commercialization of a reactor or fuel fabrication facility that does not travel through the NRC review process. The NRC is intimately involved with the DoE’s reviews conducted under the RPP and FLPP so concerns can be addressed early and commercialization can happen as rapidly as possible when that stage is reached.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 10:45

California Sues Trump Admin Over $33 Million Withheld Due To Trucker English-Proficiency Rules

Authored by Savannah Hulsey Pointer via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The state of California filed suit against the Trump administration on Dec. 12 for withholding federal funds over truck driver English-proficiency requirements.

Trucks in Phoenix on Nov. 19, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

The suit centered on a decision by the Department of Transportation (DOT) to hold back $33 million in federal funding for commercial vehicle safety programs because of the state’s decision not to comply with the federal requirements.

The English language requirement was reinstated by the DOT in May of this year.

California responded to the withholding of funds by saying the decision was “arbitrary and capricious, an abuse of discretion, and contrary to law; imperils the safety of all persons driving in California; and threatens to wreak significant economic damage.”

According to the state’s suit, California enforces the English-language rule for commercial drivers and is in compliance with federal laws.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, the Transportation Department, and the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration were named in the suit.

This isn’t the only action taken by the administration related to alien truck drivers’ presence on the road. In August of this year, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the United States would pause the issuance of worker visas for commercial truck drivers.

The Department of Transportation did not immediately respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment.

The day before the suit, on Dec. 11, Duffy announced that more than 9,500 commercial truckers were taken out of service for failing English-language proficiency checks.

“We’ve now knocked 9,500 truck drivers out of service for failing to speak our national language—ENGLISH!” Duffy wrote in a Dec. 10 post on X. “This administration will always put you and your family’s safety first.”

The total consists of actions taken since May of this year, when the policy was reinstated.

“America First means safety first,” Duffy said in May. “Americans are a lot safer on roads alongside truckers who can understand and interpret our traffic signs. This common-sense change ensures the penalty for failure to comply is more than a slap on the wrist.”

Late in November, the DOT warned that Pennsylvania could lose up to $75 million if the state does not immediately revoke the commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) issued to foreign nationals and “correct dangerous failures” identified in its CDL program.

Duffy warned that the DOT found that the state had violated safety regulations by issuing CDLs to foreigners.

The California suit comes about two weeks after a review by the DOT found that almost half of the truck driving schools in the United States were found to be noncompliant with federal guidelines.

Around 44 percent of the roughly 16,000 truck driving schools in the country could be forced to close.

Duffy said in a Dec. 1 statement that the Trump administration is “cracking down on every link in the illegal trucking chain.”

“Under [President] Joe Biden and [former Transportation Secretary] Pete Buttigieg, bad actors were able to game the system and let unqualified drivers flood our roadways,“ Duffy said. ”Their negligence endangered every family on America’s roadways, and it ends today.”

At the time, 3,000 commercial driver license training providers had been removed from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s Training Provider Registry because of violations, and an additional 4,500 training providers were put on notice for possible noncompliance.

The centers were closed for falsifying or manipulating training data; failing to meet requirements for curricula, facility conditions, or instructor qualifications; and failing to maintain accurate documentation or refusing to provide those records during the federal audit.

The Trump administration gave the state of New York 30 days to comply with federal rules for nonresidents, saying it could lose approximately $73 million in funding.

“Fifty-three percent of New York’s non-domiciled CDLs were issued unlawfully or illegally,” Duffy said in a news conference on Dec. 12.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 10:25

Zelensky, Merz Hail NATO-Style US Security Guarantees As 'Real Progress' In Peace Deal

We've heard this all before, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and American officials are hailing progress after deep discussions on a peace deal to end the nearly four-year war with Russia. During the couple days of meetings in Berlin, US officials have said there's consensus from Ukraine and Europe on about 90% of the Trump-proposedd peace plan.

It could be finalized within days in order to present to the Kremlin, which is unlikely to go for any scheme which doesn't feature serious territorial concessions. Zelensky late Monday said the draft is "very workable" but that key questions remain unresolved.

Still, the land issue remains a front and central problem. "The Americans are trying to find a compromise," Zelensky said just ahead of visiting the Netherlands on Tuesday. "They are proposing a ‘free economic zone' (in the Donbas). And I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone' does not mean under the control of the Russian Federation."

One big breakthrough, from Kiev's point of view, is being reported, however. The NY Times writes that "The United States, Ukraine and Europe have agreed on a NATO-like guarantee for the future security of Ukraine, two U.S. officials said on Monday, as they tried to come up with a revised peace proposal that would deter future aggression and still satisfy Russia."

Via AFP

And a senior US official was cited in Politico as saying, "The basis of that agreement is basically to have really, really strong guarantees, Article 5-like." This has sparked optimism in Berlin (though again, we've seen this all before):

"We now have the chance for a real peace process," Merz said.

Zelensky concurred: "We have progress there. I have seen the details from the military that they have been working on, and they look very good, even though it is only the first draft."

Zelensky and his backers have only very belatedly agreed that future NATO membership is not on the table, but now they are focused on something that's sure to receive massive pushback from Moscow: 'Article 5'-style' guarantees. So the idea is that Ukraine would never become a formal member of NATO, but would still in the end receive the benefits of such an alliance in a de facto way. 

Article 5 says that an attack on one country is an attack on all. But this is why Russia is sure to see in this simply a recipe that sets up future direct war with the West over Ukraine. The precise language of what such a security guarantee will look like has yet to be disclosed.

The NY Times presents things as being somewhat up in the air on the issue and subject to future negotiatons:

Most of the conversations over the past two days, the officials said, focused on the security guarantee, which is intended to deter Russia from invading Ukrainian territory again in coming years. The two officials were vague about the specifics, though they said that Mr. Trump was willing to submit any final agreement on American commitments to Ukraine to the Senate for approval. They did not say whether the guarantee would become a formal treaty — akin to what the United States has with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and other allies — or whether any vote would simply be intended to show a bipartisan commitment.

Mr. Trump has said the United States will not contribute ground troops to a security force. But last summer he offered to patrol the skies and enforce a no-fly zone, in addition to continuing to provide Ukraine with intelligence from U.S. satellites and signals intercepts. Senior officials say that offer still stands.

Again, at least some of these scenarios would be seen by the Kremlin as merely a precursor to bigger war. As such "robust" security guarantees would put Moscow and the NATO alliance a significant step closer to direct war, instead of the current state of things which remain more on a proxy war basis.

Meanwhile there is indeed plenty of cause for skepticism:

Another ruse, the "security guarantees" Zelensky is demanding is de facto NATO status. Besides, Zelensky and the Eurocrats will not recognize the Donbass oblasts as “de jure” permanent Russian territory. The deal is... there's no deal. The war will be decided on the battlefield. pic.twitter.com/w4S519irQ6

— Alan Watson (@DietHeartNews) December 15, 2025

Moscow has recently warned that Zelensky's sudden vocalization of willingness to make all kinds of concessions, such as preparations to hold elections, are but a ploy in order to buy time on and take off the immediate pressure from Trump.

For example, he's said he would be willing to prepare to hold elections in 60 days, but only if international backers could guarantee the freedom, fairness, and safety of such a vote. Likely this would mean demanding of Russia's military some kind of short-term ceasefire for Ukrainians to go to the polls. As we featured earlier, geopolitical analyst and University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer has a pessimistic take on the 'progress' being reported out of Berlin.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 10:05

US PMIs Plunge To 6-Month Lows In December

With 'soft' survey data slumping during (and after) the government shutdown...

...this morning's preliminary December PMIs are not helping as both S&P Global's Manufacturing and Services surveys disappointed.

• US Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.2 to 51.8 (worse than the 52.1 expected) - 5 month low

• US Services PMI fell from 54.1 to 52.9 (worse than the 54.0 expected) - 6 month low

And all that in spite of 'solid' hard data...

Source: Bloomberg

The headline S&P Global US PMI Composite Output Index fell to 53.0 in December from 54.2 in November, according to the 'flash' reading (based on about 85% of usual survey responses).

“The flash PMI data for December suggest that the recent economic growth spurt is losing momentum," says Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"Although the survey data point to annualized GDP expansion of about 2.5% over the fourth quarter, growth has now slowed for two months."

The latest reading was the lowest since June, though continues to indicate robust economic growth. Output has now risen continually for 35 months.

Despite the decline, US PMIs remain well above the rest of the world...

With new sales growth waning especially sharply in the lead up to the holiday season, Williamson notes that "economic activity may soften further as we head into 2026."

The signs of weakness are also broad-based, with a nearstalling of inflows of work into the vast services economy accompanied by the first fall in factory orders for a year.

"While manufacturers continue to report higher output, lower sales point to unsustainable production levels which will need to be lowered unless demand revives in the new year.

Service providers reported one of the slowest months for sales growth since 2023. "

Firms have also lost some confidence in the outlook and have restricted their hiring in December in accordance with the more challenging business environment.

"A key concern is rising costs, with inflation jumping sharply to its highest since November 2022, which fed through to one of the steepest increases in selling charges for the past three years. "

Higher prices are again being widely blamed on tariffs, according to Williamson, with an initial impact on manufacturing now increasingly spilling over to services to broaden the affordability problem.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 09:59

UK To Introduce 'Anti-Muslim Hate' Definition

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Ministers in the UK are steeling themselves for a storm of criticism as Communities Secretary Steve Reed prepares to unveil a new official definition of “anti-Muslim hate” this week. 

Critics, led by the Free Speech Union, warn that the expansive terminology risks creating a de facto blasphemy law, stifling legitimate debate on issues like grooming gangs and Islamist terrorism.

Ministers braced for Islamophobia law backlash https://t.co/vHc9Fp7d6O

— The Free Speech Union (@SpeechUnion) December 15, 2025

The shift away from the term “Islamophobia” aims to provide guidance for public bodies, councils, and businesses in combating prejudice against Muslims. Yet, according to leaked drafts, it could label prejudicial stereotyping or “racialisation designed to incite hate” as hateful acts, potentially encompassing discussions that highlight patterns in crimes predominantly involving Muslim perpetrators.

ANY official definition of Islamophobia will have a chilling effect on freedom of speech. It could also be illegal.

Communities Secretary Steve Reed has reportedly finalised the official definition of Islamophobia, which is expected to be published this week.

It is understood… pic.twitter.com/TvZbYxDl3Y

— The Free Speech Union (@SpeechUnion) December 15, 2025

The Free Speech Union has been vocal in its opposition, arguing that any official definition will inevitably chill free speech.

In a post on X, the organization stated: “An official definition of Islamophobia would stifle free speech, particularly discussion of important topics such as the grooming gangs scandal and Islamist terrorism.”

“Blasphemy laws were abolished in 2008 — 17 years ago. This government appears intent on resurrecting them and is due to publish the long-awaited definition this week. No religion in a free society should be beyond legitimate criticism or challenge,” the post added.

An official definition of Islamophobia would stifle free speech, particularly discussion of important topics such as the grooming gangs scandal and Islamist terrorism.

Blasphemy laws were abolished in 2008 — 17 years ago. This government appears intent on resurrecting them and…

— The Free Speech Union (@SpeechUnion) December 15, 2025

Toby Young, General Secretary and founder of the Free Speech Union, described the move as prioritizing one faith over others, alienating broad swaths of the population. 

“Prioritising Islam over other faiths will confirm the view of white working-class voters that they’re being treated like second class citizens in their own country, while Muslim community groups in marginal Labour constituencies like Birmingham Yardley will condemn the definition for not including the word ‘Islamophobia’,” Young said. He added: “It’s a fudge that will please no one.”

The warnings echo broader concerns from legal experts and watchdogs. The Equalities and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) has cautioned that adopting such a definition could break the law by imposing a “chilling effect” on freedom of expression and harming community cohesion. 

In a letter to Reed, the EHRC highlighted potential “inconsistency” and “confusion” for courts, noting that existing laws already protect against discrimination and hate crimes.

“It is unclear what role a new definition would play in addressing abuse targeted at Muslims, given that legal protections against discrimination and hate crime already exist,” the commission stated.

Jonathan Hall, KC, the independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, has also opposed the definition, arguing it targets a religion rather than protecting individuals. He warned of “overzealous” enforcement by authorities, which could threaten free speech through “spongy or inaccurate” interpretations.

Government sources insist the definition won’t inhibit raising public interest concerns, even sensitive ones. A Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government spokesman emphasized: “This work has always been about stamping out hatred and we’ve been clear from the beginning that we would never consider a definition that stifles free speech or stops concerns being raised in the public interest. This will remain at the forefront of our minds as we review the definition.”

Despite these assurances, the Free Speech Union points to the abolition of blasphemy laws in 2008 as a hard-won victory now under threat. 

Their campaign urges citizens to contact MPs via a tool on their website to oppose the measure, underscoring that “we already have laws that protect against religious discrimination and hatred. We do not need a return to blasphemy laws 17 years after their abolition.”

The UK’s push reflects a pattern of governments weaponizing terminology to police thought, often at the expense of open debate.

As the Free Speech Union warns, this “fudge” risks alienating everyone while eroding core freedoms. 

In a truly free society, no topic should be off-limits, and no faith shielded from scrutiny. Defending speech now means pushing back against these creeping restrictions before they silence us all.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 09:45

Ukraine's Anti-Corruption Investigation Appears To Be On The Brink Of Implicating Zelensky

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The New York Times’ recent report about his government’s responsibility for the worst corruption scandal in Ukraine’s history suggests that the walls are closing in and his foreign media allies are jumping ship out of desperation to retain some of their credibility after years of deifying him.

It was earlier assessed that “Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Investigation Is Turning Into A Rolling Coup” after it took down Zelensky’s grey cardinal Andrey Yermak, consequently weakened the already shaky alliance keeping him in power, and thus placed more pressure upon him to cede Donbass. The latest development concerns the New York Times’ (NYT) report about how “Zelensky’s Government Sabotaged Oversight, Allowing Corruption to Fester”, which brings the investigation closer to implicating him.

It also represents a stunning narrative reversal after the NYT spent the past nearly four years practically deifying him only to now inform their global audience that “President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration has stacked boards with loyalists, left seats empty or stalled them from being set up at all. Leaders in Kyiv even rewrote company charters to limit oversight, keeping the government in control and allowing hundreds of millions of dollars to be spent without outsiders poking around.”

Predictably, “Mr. Zelensky’s administration has blamed Energoatom’s supervisory board for failing to stop the corruption. But it was Mr. Zelensky’s government itself that neutered Energoatom’s supervisory board, The Times found.” Just as scandalously, “The Times found political interference not only at Energoatom but also at the state-owned electricity company Ukrenergo as well as at Ukraine’s Defense Procurement Agency”, the latter of which Kiev plans to merge with the State Logistics Operator.

None of this was a secret either: “European leaders have privately criticized but reluctantly tolerated Ukrainian corruption for years, reasoning that supporting the fight against Russia’s invasion was paramount. So, even as Ukraine undermined outside oversight, European money kept flowing.” The NYT then detailed the political meddling employed by Zelensky’s government to “impede the (supervisory) board’s ability to act” and therefore facilitate the worst corruption scandal in Ukraine’s history.

Their report is significant since it strongly suggests that there’s now tacit consensus between the NYT’s liberal-globalist backers, the conservative-nationalist Trump Administration, and the US’ permanent bureaucracy (“deep state”) about the need to expose Zelensky’s corruption. Gone are the days when he was presented as the next Churchill since he’s now being portrayed as no less corrupt than the strongmen in Global South countries that most Americans have never heard of or can place on a map.

To be sure, the aforementioned liberal-globalists and members of the “deep state” (oftentimes one and the same) still oppose Trump’s envisaged endgame in Ukraine, but they seem to have concluded that a ‘phased leadership transition’ is in their and Ukraine’s interests.

It appears inevitable that the anti-corruption investigation will soon implicate Zelensky so it’s best for them to get ahead of the curve in order to retain some credibility among their audience and possibly shape the next government.

Their goal isn’t to facilitate Ukrainian concessions like Trump wants in exchange for Putin agreeing to a profitable resource-centric strategic partnership after the conflict ends but to clean up some corruption and thus optimize government operations in the hope of inspiring the West to rally around Ukraine. It’s likely a losing bet, however, since the political momentum favors Trump’s vision. In fact, his opponents’ narrative reversal arguably advances Trump’s goal, but they’ll accept that to save their credibility.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 09:15

Payrolls Paradox: November Jobs Stronger Than Expected But Unemployment Rate Jumps To 4 Year High

Ahead of today's jobs report, Goldman Delta One Head Rich Privorotsky wrote that with the October print backward looking and mostly govt related and irrelevant, "anywhere near consensus for November (+/-25k of 50k) feels like the sweet spot…that said, hard to see the FOMC feeling compelled to halt accommodation or even talk about hiking if labor momentum is still sub-100k on trend. Too cold (<25k or negative) and the pro-cyclical rally we’ve seen has to be questioned. Probably bigger risk to the market narrative is a re-acceleration in labor which is consistent with some of the bonce in open jobs visible in the higher frequency data."

With that in mind, moments ago the the BLS published a very mixed report, with payrolls coming solid, thanks to a big beat in the November print, offset by an unexpected jump in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, above estimates, and the highest since Sept 2021.

Here are the details: in October, the US lost 105K jobs, entirely due to a plunge in government jobs (more below) but this was offset by the November jump of 64K jobs, which came in higher than the 50K expected. 

Naturally, the negative revisions continued: the BLS also reported that the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 22,000, from -4,000 to -26,000, and the change for September was revised down by 11,000, from +119,000 to +108,000.  With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported. 

Of note, government employment tumbled in November by -6,000. This follows a sharp decline of 162,000 in October, as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer came off federal payrolls. Federal government employment is down by 271,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Federal employees on furlough during the government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they received pay, even if later than usual, for the pay period that included the 12th of the month. Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)

But while payrolls were generally solid, the unemployment rate was a problem and is what will likely prompt the Fed to cut more: in November, the unemp rate rose to 4.6% (with October blank), worse than the 4.5% estimate and the highest since Sept 2021.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for teenagers was 16.3% in November, an increase from September. The jobless rates for adult men (4.1 percent), adult women (4.1 percent),  Whites (3.9 percent), Blacks (8.3 percent), Asians (3.6 percent), all rose, and just the unemp rate for Hispanics (5.0 percent) dropped.

Both the labor force participation rate (62.5 percent) and the employment-population ratio (59.6 percent) were little changed from September. These measures showed little or no change over the year. 

In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 5 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $36.86. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.5%, lower than the 3.6% expected. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in November. In manufacturing, the average workweek changed little at 40.0 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 2.9 hours. 

Taking a closer look at the report we find the following details:

• The number of people jobless less than 5 weeks was 2.5 million in November, up by 316,000 from  September. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.9 million in November and accounted for 24.3 percent of all unemployed people. 
• The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was 5.5 million in November, an increase of 909,000 from September. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. 
• The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 6.1 million in November, was little changed from September. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. 
• Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.8 million in November, was little changed from September. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, also changed little at 651,000 in November. 

Taking a closer look at the monthly change in jobs, employment rose in health care and construction while federal government employment declined by 6,000, following a loss of 162,000 in October. 

• In November, health care added 46,000 jobs, in line with the average monthly gain of 39,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, job gains occurred in ambulatory health care services (+24,000),  hospitals (+11,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+11,000).
• Construction employment grew by 28,000 in November, as nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 19,000 jobs. Construction employment had changed little over the prior 12 months. 
• Employment in social assistance continued to trend up in November (+18,000), primarily in individual and family services (+13,000). 
• In November, employment edged down in transportation and warehousing (-18,000), reflecting a job loss in couriers and messengers (-18,000). Transportation and warehousing employment has declined  by 78,000 since reaching a peak in February. 
• The big outlier was Federal government employment, which continued to decrease in November (-6,000). This follows a sharp  decline of 162,000 in October, as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer came off federal payrolls. Federal government employment is down by 271,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Federal employees on furlough during the government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they received pay, even if later than usual, for the pay period that included the 12th of the month. Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)

And visually:

While the quantitative aspects of the report were ok, the qualitative were ugly. In November, the number of full-time workers plunged by 983K from September to 134.17 million. At the same time, in the two months since Sept, the number of part-time workers soared by over 1 million (1.025 million to be precise) to 29.486 million...

... the highest on record while full-time workers tumbled to a 2025 low!

As for the closely watched "immigrant" shift, in November there were no fireworks here, with Native Born workers up 114K, while foreign-born increased by 58.

There was more: the number of people who need more than one job to make ends meet soared by almost 500K in the 2 months since Sept to 9.301 million, the highest on record!

Overall, this jobs report was weaker than it will be spun for political reasons, which however is precisely what the market is looking for because as Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson put it, "bad news is now good news for stocks."

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 09:02

Hunting Season Opens: 18 Sanctioned Tankers Lurking In Venezuelan Waters

President Trump's gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean, off Venezuela's coast, has the effect of a maritime blockade, disrupting oil flows to Cuba and to global markets via shadow-fleet tankers. The Trump administration calculates that choking off this oil trade could trigger cascading economic stress, first in Cuba and then in Venezuela, ultimately accelerating the end goal of regime change in Caracas.

The latest report from Axios shows that the Trump administration's seizure of a shadow-fleet tanker in the Caribbean is only in the early innings, with 18 sanctioned oil-laden ships currently in Venezuelan waters.

Last week, a US Special Forces unit seized the tanker Skipper, which was carrying crude contracted by Cubametales, Cuba's state-run oil trading firm.

The tanker was part of a dark fleet that shipped crude from Venezuela to Cuba and onward to Asia.

Samir Madani, co-founder of the firm Tanker Trackers, told Axios that of the 18 sanctioned oil-laden ships off the country's coast, eight are classified as "Very Large Crude Carriers" (VLCCs), such as Skipper, which can carry nearly 2 million barrels of Venezuelan crude. "It's quite a buffet for the U.S. to choose from," he said.

Given the unprecedented US naval presence in the Caribbean, mainly offshore of Venezuela in international waters, the Trump administration's theory of gunboat diplomacy centers on cutting off all support to Cuba. To do that, it follows the money, starting with oil flows via dark tanker fleets. Once those oil flows are disrupted, Venezuela falls, and then Cuba follows.

Related:

• Seized Tanker Reveals Cuba's Secret Oil Lifeline As Trump Turns To Gunboat Diplomacy

Axios quoted one Trump adviser as saying, "We have to wait for them to move. They're sitting at the dock. Once they move, we'll go to court, get a warrant, and then get them," adding, "But if they make us wait too long, we might get a warrant to get them there," in Venezuelan waters.

And gunboat diplomacy it is.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 08:55

'K-Shaped' Economy? Core Retail Sales Surged In October

Amid the growing specter of a 'k-shaped' economy, BofA's (almost) omniscient analysts forecast strong retail sales for October - considerably stronger than Bloomberg's consensus of a marginal uptick.

BofA was wrong - very wrong - as the headline retail sales was unchanged MoM, which pulled sales down to +3.5% YoY (still relatively strong)...

Source: Bloomberg

However, Ex-Autos, and Ex-Autos and Gas both beat expectations.

The figures indicate consumer spending picked up steam in the early weeks of the holiday-shopping season as shoppers, many worried about their jobs and frustrated by the high cost of living, sought out deals.

Eight out of 13 retail categories posted increases, including solid advances at department stores and online merchants.

Motor vehicles fell 1.6%, held down in part by the expiration of federal tax incentives on electric vehicles. Cheaper gasoline prices held down the value of gas station receipts.

However, there is a silver lining, as the Retail Sales Control Group (which excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations) - which feeds into the GDP calc - surged 0.8% MoM - double expectations and the biggest MoM jump since June...

Source: Bloomberg

That MoM jump leaves sales up a strong 5.1% YoY and while the 'k-shaped' economy continues to weigh on market sentiment, it is not evident in the aggregate data and supports solid Q4 GDP growth.

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 08:44