Eastern Mediterranean Geopolitics Are Becoming More Complex

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

Tensions are growing between Turkiye-Pakistan and Israel-Cyprus-Greece...

Stability in the Eastern Mediterranean can no longer be taken for granted as a result of three recent developments:

1) the growing Turkish-Israeli rivalry in post-Assad Syria;

2) Israel’s reported plans to establish a rapid response force with Cyprus and Greece; and

3) Turkish ally Pakistan’s new military ties with Eastern Libya’s General Khalifa Haftar. The aforesaid are unfolding amidst Israel’s plans for an underwater EastMed gas pipeline to Greece and Turkiye’s maritime claims that cut right across its route.

The reported rapid response force could accordingly be assembled to defend the EastMed if construction on it were to begin while Pakistan might establish a military presence in Eastern Libya under the cover of training Haftar’s forces for complementing Turkiye’s in Western Libya so as to help Ankara counter this. Unaware observers should review this article here to learn more about the rapprochement between Turkiye and Haftar, previously enemies, which advances the former’s abovementioned maritime claims.

The Turkish-Pakistani Tandem (TPT) might not directly clash with Israel over the EastMed, at least not at first, since it’s much more likely that Turkiye would initially pressure it in Syria while Pakistan stirs trouble on its behalf at sea (perhaps with drones) through its potential military presence in Eastern Libya. The purpose would be to keep tensions manageable and “plausibly deniable”. That would be difficult to do if they targeted NATO member Greece, however, which could backfire by rallying the bloc around it.

For that reason, TPT would probably employ low-level and “plausibly deniable” hybrid provocations against Israel in the first stage, though Israel would be expected to call them out on this if it happens. It’s not possible to accurately forecast what might follow but it’s sufficient to predict that Israel likely wouldn’t back down since it rarely does so under military pressure. A conventional escalation might therefore be in the cards and that could in turn set the entire region aflame if it spirals out of control.

Turkiye’s interest in involving Pakistan in this dispute wouldn’t just be to diffuse responsibility for any escalation over its maritime claims but to have the support of the only Muslim nuclear power in order to deter Israel from responding in a way that risks a war between them. For its part, Pakistan would probably be happy to saber-rattle against Israel since this would play well domestically, but it understandably wouldn’t want Israel to force its hand into fighting a conventional war or backing down.

Any serious escalation between TPT and Israel would assuredly lead to an American diplomatic intervention given that all three are its close partners. Which side the US would support, however, remains unclear. While Israel is one of its most special partners, the EastMed pipeline could challenge the US’ newfound energy hegemony over the EU, so the argument can be made that it might prefer to impose a compromise whereby Israel supplies Turkiye with gas just like it’s poised to supply Egypt.

If Syria joins the Abraham Accords, then a pipeline could be built across its territory from Israel to Turkiye, while Lebanon could be involved as well if it too signs onto the accords. Even without that happening, an underwater pipeline could connect Israel’s offshore gas fields with Turkiye, which would strengthen their complex interdependence for reducing the risk of conflict.

That would be the best-case scenario from the US’ perspective for resolving Turkish-Israeli tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 05:00

Le Pen's Political Future Hangs In The Balance As Appeal Begins This Week

The political future of Marine Le Pen hinges on a crucial appeal in Paris this week that will determine whether she can run in the 2027 presidential election, after she was barred from public office over misusing 4 million euros of EU funds. 

Marine Le Pen, pictured in Dec. 2024 at her party's offices in the National Assembly. (via El Pais)

Le Pen, who leads France's populist National Rally (RN) party, was sentenced to four years in prison (two suspended, two under house arrest which are on hold during her appeal) and banned from political office for five years, effectively disqualifying her from the 2027 election. She was also fined €100,000. In last March's ruling, Le Pen and her co-defendants were convicted of using funds meant for the European Parliament to pay staff that were working for RN.

RN is the largest opposition party in France, which poses a major threat to President Emmanuel Macron in next year's election - as the party enjoys widespread support throughout the country due to a pendulum shift back to conservative policies and anti-immigration views. 

Le Pen's appeal is scheduled to run from January 13th through February 12th, with a final ruling expected by this summer. If unsuccessful, Le Pen says her protege, 30-year-old party president Jordan Bardella, will run in her place. 

US President Donald Trump and senior members of his administration have voice support for Le Pen following her conviction, who will undoubtedly use her as an example of a weaponized judicial system in Europe that seeks to unfairly block right-wing politicians who oppose immigration from taking power. 

German magazine Der Spiegel claims that the Trump administration held internal discussions about sanctioning French prosecutors and judges involved in barring Le Pen, however US Under Secretary of State Sara B. Rogers denied the report as a "fake story."

Understand that this fake story is making the rounds in France, so I thought I’d do my part to counter foreign “misinformation”: the purported leak is stale and false. https://t.co/ixAzJY06mF

— Under Secretary of State Sarah B. Rogers (@UnderSecPD) January 7, 2026

That said, Reuters notes that "over the past year, the U.S. has imposed sanctions against 11 International Criminal Court judges involved in cases against Israel.

Le Pen has accused the judiciary of politically motivated targeting, telling French TV channel TF1 at the time "In the country of human rights, judges have implemented practices that we thought were reserved for authoritarian regimes."

Meanwhile, the European Parliament's lawyer Patrick Maisonneuve says he hopes Le Pen and her co-defendants' convictions would be upheld, including over 3 million in euro awarded in damages to the European Parliament. RN was also ordered to pay a 2 million fine, with half of the amount having been suspended. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 04:15

EU Official Plotted To 'Organize Resistance' Against Hungary's Orban, Files Show

Authored by Kit Klarenberg via The GrayZone,

A senior European Union official has been secretly seeking to remove Hungarian President Viktor Orban since at least 2019, according to leaked documents reviewed by The Grayzone. The files show in January 2019, the EU’s International Coordinator for the Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs, Marton Benedek, authored a “project proposal” aimed at “developing a permanent coordination forum to organize resistance against the Orban regime.” In addition to his role at the European border control agency, Benedek currently heads Brussels’ “cooperation” with Libya.

The impetus for Benedek’s plot was “an unprecedented set of anti-regime demonstrations in Hungary and among expat Hungarians” over controversial proposed legislation allowing businesses to compel employees to work overtime, and delay payment of their wages for an extended period. Thousands took to the streets before and after its implementation.

According to Benedek, outrage over what he referred to as “the slave law” had “compelled a small group of some 30 political, trade union and civic leaders to coordinate their activities, agree on a set of minimum objectives and funding principles, and jointly plan future action.” This had given birth to “an ad hoc coordination forum… which could develop, over time, into an incipient political coordinating body that could credibly challenge” Orban’s rule.

Benedek’s proposal to harness resistance to the so-called “slave law” and bring its opponents into a single political movement was likely a reaction to the pro-sovereignty positions pursued by Orban and his Fidesz party, which has consistently sought to maintain national veto power for member states and to prevent the bloc from enlarging further, to the great chagrin of Brussels.

Participating in the “ad hoc coordination forum” were a variety of NGOs, many of which have been acccused of receiving funds from George Soros’ Open Society Foundations. OSF relocated its Hungarian office to Berlin in April 2018, due to Orban’s government undertaking numerous measures to curb the activities and influence of foreign-financed NGOs locally. OSF activities in Budapest have been a closely-guarded secret ever since. Nonetheless, the most recent available figures indicate Soros’ personal regime change operation pumped $8.9 million into Hungary in 2021 alone.

The source who obtained the files told The Grayzone that the proposal was submitted to Open Society Foundations, although they were unable to furnish proof that the Soros-led organization received the documents or signed off on them.

In the document, Benedek wrote that he hoped “to develop a few ideas to transform this forum into a potent entity capable of planning and executing collective action” ahead of elections that would be held in Hungary in 2019 and 2022. Benedek stressed the need for expansive financing to “deliver results” not least as organizing a single “large demonstration in Budapest” cost roughly $11,000. The then-ongoing demonstrations relied on crowdfunding, and Hungarian political parties – which receive state funding – to cover “gaps” in “project management.”

Among Benedek’s “proposed lines of action” was the creation of “a non-profit entity, registered in Hungary (for operational activities) and a financial vehicle potentially registered in Austria.” A board comprising political party representatives, trade unions and NGOs “could provide the political steer for future action.”

Benedek sought to maintain as broad of an anti-Orban coalition as possible, warning against “rapidly proceeding to controversial projects,” for instance uniting opposition parties to contest European elections. As these votes are “contested in a fully proportional system,” it was “quite rational” for parties “to run individual party lists.”

Instead, Benedek looked ahead to “organizing collective action” and “sustained opposition to the Orban regime” over contentious domestic political issues ahead of Hungary’s 2019 local and 2022 national elections. The operation would involve “primary campaigns, information campaigns, mobilisation campaigns, electoral debates and joint fundraising activities,” he wrote.

The senior EU functionary concluded by suggesting his proposed organization would ultimately morph into a shadow government that could seize power from the Hungarian president. “In the longer run, the proposed non-profit entity could also… develop the policy foundations (and shadow cabinet) of a united political front against the Orban regime.”

A failed test-run for toppling Orban?

By this point, Benedek had been intimately involved in anti-Orban activism in Hungary for many years, while also working in a variety of senior EU posts related to bloc enlargement and relations between aspiring member states. An official profile reveals he “led the European Commission’s visa liberalization dialogue” with the breakaway statelet of Kosovo, “oversaw rule of law reforms in the Western Balkans,” and coordinated “the EU’s internal security policies during Hungary’s EU Council Presidency” in 2011.

Benedek’s determined plotting against Orban clearly constitutes a conflict of interest. In October 2012 – the year that Orban’s disputes with Brussels significantly intensified – Benedek co-founded a party called Együtt, or Together. A progressive liberal party, it sought to forge an extremely broad political coalition in Hungary. Együtt’s explicit objective was to seize power and undo all reforms enacted by Fidesz since taking office two years prior. Its leaders urged parties of every ideological extraction to join their cause.

Read Benedek’s anti-Orban project proposal here.

Despite much initial media hype framing Együtt as Hungary’s premier opposition entity, and therefore a threat to Orban’s grip on power, the party failed miserably. Having been flatly rejected by the country’s right-wing, it formed a coalition with a quartet of green, liberal and social democratic parties. This was sufficient to elect three MPs to Budapest’s 199-seat parliament in 2014, although four years later that figure fell to just one. The lone lawmaker promptly defected to another party, and Együtt folded.

Despite the cataclysmic results, and Együtt’s chiefs being forced to pay back close to half a million dollars in state funding they received for campaigning activities due to abysmal electoral performance, Benedek was undeterred. In a 2017 interview, he branded allegations that his family had improperly profited from his mother’s senior position within the EU as a “Fidesz lie.” The fact that he was reaping a sizable salary from Brussels for sensitive, high-level work, while simultaneously playing opposition politician at home, was left unmentioned by his interviewers.

This matter should’ve been a source of significant critical interest and inquiry, however. Under formal rules, EU civil servants are supposed to be impartial and politically neutral. Officials must declare any personal or political interests that could compromise their independence, and obtain permission from superiors before engaging in external activity. One might think Benedek engaging in nakedly partisan political campaigning, both covert and overt, would be prohibited – unless of course it was signed off upon at the bloc’s highest levels.

In the leaked 2019 “project proposal,” Benedek boasted that “an online community that yours truly set up” was part of the anti-Orban “coordination forum.” That group, “Hazajöttünk túlórázni” (“We came home for overtime”), had attracted the interest of thousands of Hungarian emigres, which were drawn together when it “organised demonstrations against the Orban regime in 35 cities in Europe, North America, Asia and Australia.” How these actions were funded, and whether the EU played any role in bankrolling them, remains unclear.

While Együtt’s crusade to dislodge Orban crashed and burned, the experience offered clear lessons for future contenders. The first of these was that Hungarians are overwhelmingly right-wing, dooming virtually any explicitly progressive, liberal movement to failure. Second, and equally important, as Benedek noted in his “project proposal,” was that European parliament votes are conducted under proportional representation, making it much easier for smaller parties to break through in Brussels than in national elections. Recent political developments suggest Együtt’s contemporaries learned from their efforts, and adapted accordingly.

EU 'resistance' ambitions fulfilled by Tisza?

In March 2024, a little-known figure named Peter Magyar exploded onto Budapest’s political scene when he released secret recordings of his ex-wife, former Justice Minister Judit Varga, revealing that senior government figures attempted to sabotage the prosecution of a state official for corruption. Varga had resigned the previous month along with Hungarian President Katalin Novak, for signing off on the pardon of the deputy director of an orphanage who was implicated in covering up pedophilia.

Ever since, Varga has repeatedly claimed Magyar was physically abusive, and that she made the incriminating statements under duress. She has variously alleged Magyar locked her in a room without her consent, violently shoved her into a door while she was pregnant, and stormed around their shared residence menacing her with a knife. In April 2024, a police report was released exposing how Magyar attempted to forcibly seize custody of the pair’s children, while making a variety of threats to Varga. He denies the report’s authenticity.

These revelations have fallen almost entirely on deaf ears, however, while Magyar’s star has grown inexorably. Magyar became chief of the Tisza (Respect and Freedom) party almost overnight, and was immediately bestowed the title of “opposition leader” by mainstream media. While founded in 2020, Tisza had not previously competed in any elections or ever publicly campaigned. However, in the June 2024 European parliament election, Tisza garnered almost 30% of the vote, and seven seats. Today, the party enjoys a significant lead over Orban’s Fidesz in many national opinion polls.

From the very inception of Magyar’s stratospheric ascent, his political activities have been of intense interest to Western news outlets, with protests he routinely leads generating saturation coverage. At no point have obvious questions been asked as to whether Magyar’s abrupt emergence as Hungary’s leader-in-waiting was an organic phenomenon, or how his activities have been funded. Despite repeated promises, Magyar has yet to provide the public with any detailed financial statements. Instead, he claims Tisza relies on “micro-donations” from average citizens, and the largesse of popular local anti-government actor Ervin Nagy.

Immediately after Magyar assumed leadership over Tisza, he barnstormed through towns and villages across the country. The spectacular campaign often saw him addressing crowds from large stages featuring concert-ready audio equipment, along with videographers and professional security. Magyar has also been supported by highly sophisticated PR and social media efforts, as well as a liberal-leaning local mainstream media ecosystem which seems increasingly desperate to market him to right-wing voters.

In 2024, Hungarian academic Zsolt Enyedi published a typical profile of Magyar’s party, marvelling at Tisza’s “meteoric” and “unprecedented” rise, while acknowledging that its “ideological profile” is “amorphous” – which is quite an understatement.

Though he claims to be conservative, Magyar’s positions on many issues are unclear. For example, he has visited Ukraine and branded Moscow the proxy war’s “aggressor,” while Tisza has voted for European Parliament resolutions calling for more weapons for Kiev. The party’s representatives performatively donned Ukrainian flag t-shirts as they cheered Volodymyr Zelensky’s November 2024 address to the chamber.

Magyar has also promised to adopt the EU’s ban on Russian energy imports, a position opposed by the overwhelming majority of Hungarians. Adding to the confusion, Tisza supports the government’s refusal to send weapons to Kiev, as well as Ukraine’s EU accession. Magyar has admitted he avoids taking concrete positions on Ukraine, as the topic is “divisive” among domestic constituents. Pointed questions about his penchant for flip-flopping have prompted Tisza’s leader to storm out of live TV interviews.

Hungary on the verge of EU subjugation?

Nonetheless, one policy area in which Magyar is consistent, unequivocal, and in stark opposition to Fidesz, is the EU. Defining himself as avidly pro-European, he supports adoption of the Euro, as well as greater EU integration and federalism. If he comes to power, Budapest will no longer be an irritant to Brussels’ designs. It is likely to back the Ukrainian proxy war “for as long as it takes,” as EU chief Ursula von der Leyen has repeatedly pledged, and to eliminate the remaining vestiges of sovereignty from the bloc’s members.

Since late 2022, the EU has withheld billions of euros from Hungary due to “rule of law concerns.” Accessing these vast sums would require Fidesz to undertake major reforms in eight separate policy areas. However, Magyar has claimed once he takes office and Budapest is “a fully-fledged member of the EU,” the funds will instantly be unfrozen – a key Tisza pledge, which has propelled the party’s surging popularity ahead of Hungary’s national elections in April.

If current polling trends hold, Marton Benedek’s clandestine scheme to “organize resistance” and “credibly challenge” Orban may finally be fulfilled.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 03:30

China–EU EV Conflict Nears Resolution As New Pricing Framework Emerges

China and the EU took a significant step Monday toward easing their long-running electric vehicle trade dispute after Brussels released rules that could allow Chinese exporters to replace punitive tariffs with negotiated pricing commitments, according to the South China Morning Post.

The European Commission said companies may submit price undertakings that must be “adequate to eliminate the injurious effects of the subsidies and provide equivalent effect to duties”. Exporters are encouraged to include shipment limits and future EU investments, with assessments conducted under WTO rules. If accepted, the EU would revise its existing regulations.

The conflict dates back to the EU’s 2023 anti-subsidy probe, which resulted in 2024 duties of 7.8% to 35.3% for five years. China responded with investigations into European cognac, dairy and pork. While the tariffs technically remain, the new framework could replace them with minimum import prices.

China’s Ministry of Commerce welcomed the move, saying “the progress fully reflects the spirit of dialogue and the outcomes of consultations between China and the EU.” It added: “It shows that both China and the EU have the ability and willingness to properly resolve differences through dialogue and consultation under the framework of WTO rules and maintain the stability of automotive industrial and supply chains in China, the EU and the whole world,” calling it “conducive not only to ensuring the healthy development of China-EU economic and trade relations, but also to safeguarding the rules-based international trade order.”

SCMP writes that negotiations gained momentum after the EU began reviewing a price undertaking offer in December from Volkswagen’s Chinese joint venture. Economist Alicia Garcia-Herrero of Natixis called the potential shift from tariffs to price floors a major development.

China’s chamber of commerce in the EU described the move as a “soft landing” and “a constructive step forward for China–EU trade and investment cooperation, as well as for the broader bilateral relationship”, adding: “The consensus and arrangements reached will significantly strengthen business confidence, [and] create a more stable and predictable environment for Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers and related supply-chain companies investing and operating in Europe.”

Cui Hongjian of Beijing Foreign Studies University cautioned the change remains largely technical, noting that “At present, both sides are grappling with a certain lack of confidence [in each other].” Garcia-Herrero warned the scheme could weaken EU trade enforcement, raise costs for European buyers, and deepen Europe’s reliance on Chinese investment.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 02:45

Germany's Mittelstand Succession Crisis: Who Will Take the Reins?

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Germany faces a massive wave of business transfers. The decline in entrepreneurship and self-employment has multiple causes; blaming the young generation’s supposed obsession with work-life balance belongs more to the realm of fables.

When a productive and market-successful company exits the competition, productive capital is lost irretrievably. Jobs vanish, supply chains collapse, and established customer relationships dissolve. Often, foreign competitors step in to occupy the freed market niches. Value creation is lost for the domestic economy.

KfW Panel Shows the Numbers

A recent survey by the KfW Mittelstand Panel shows that Germany confronts exactly this fundamental problem. A demographically driven succession crisis is emerging: over 57% of Mittelstand business owners are now over 55. According to KfW, around 1.1 million business transfers or closures will occur by 2029 due to age. The survey of 13,000 firms also shows that about one in four companies at risk is considering a full shutdown because no suitable successor or buyer is available to fill the vacancy.

Mathematically, the situation is stark: in coming years, roughly 114,000 business closures are expected annually, while only about 109,000 orderly successions occur. The net balance is negative. New business formation would be required to close the gap—an endeavor naturally difficult in Germany. The succession problem spans all sectors and company sizes, from small craft shops or bakeries to classic industrial Mittelstand companies. The pool of potential business transferors grows due to demographics, while the pool of successors continues to shrink—a classic demographic gap.

The Ifo Institute paints an equally sobering picture: around 42% of family businesses cannot find an internal successor. Young people increasingly avoid taking over existing companies, preferring well-paid employment with social security and avoiding the substantial risks tied to entrepreneurship.

A New Reality

What drives the growing succession problem in Germany? Just a few years ago, aging society and rising closures could be cited alongside productivity trends and a shrinking domestic market as natural reasons for a contraction in the economy’s supply side.

Today, however, Germany’s population has grown by several million in a few years due to migration policies. With shrinking economic output, Germans are increasingly trapped in a spiral of scarcity. Alongside eroding productivity and industrial decline, massive redistribution programs benefiting those who have never contributed productively push the country’s productive class into economic tight spots.

And honestly: who wants to take entrepreneurial responsibility in such an anti-business climate? A country where leading officials, from Lars Klingbeil to Bärbel Bas, even the Chancellor, openly attack entrepreneurs depending on the day’s mood—while a compliant press gives them carte blanche for all manner of rhetorical nonsense.

It begs the question: how has self-employment, once a cornerstone for innovation, family traditions, risk capital, and breaking stagnant markets, decayed so profoundly?

In principle, anyone pursuing a serious entrepreneurial vision pays little attention to political chatter or bureaucratic whim—but in Germany, beyond demographics and a lack of successors, politically engineered realities make takeovers and sales extraordinarily difficult.

Structural Obstacles

Inheritance law, nearing another reform, targets the substance of Mittelstand firms—more than a mere deterrent. In many cases, succession becomes economically unviable. Complex, multi-heir transfers are costly, liquidity-straining, and bureaucratically labyrinthine. Potential inheritors or buyers face an entire economic crisis environment, alongside internal cultural shocks in companies tied closely to their founders.

Succession processes often end in frustration because tax, inheritance, and corporate law link transfers to complex conditions, deadlines, and exceptions monitored for years. Restructuring, investment, or personnel decisions can jeopardize tax benefits and trigger retroactive liabilities. The economy shrinks, fiscal pressures rise annually—most recently via CO₂ levies and commercial tax hikes to cover municipal deficits. No recovery is in sight. Germany is only at the beginning of deindustrialization and structural collapse.

The Green Deal looms—a future-destroying program for the next generation, who will one day see “Fridays for Future” protests and climate activists as symptoms of a severe societal illness no one restrained.

Cultural Retreat

Zooming out, the social and cultural climate reveals another key issue: society has largely abandoned family traditions. The collapse of reproduction rates reflects even in entrepreneur families. Passing a business to children and integrating them early into operations is increasingly the exception.

This is symptomatic of a deeper problem: belief in economic futures has eroded. Prosperity was once a promise for achievement; today it is often merely a state-managed allocation problem—via subsidies or a welfare apparatus consuming about a third of GDP. Society appears frozen. State institutions and parties shield themselves from criticism by framing entrepreneurs as greedy.

Current discourse demonstrates that conservative values, generational thinking, and meritocratic consensus are essential for national economic advancement. Change will occur when society realizes that wealth cannot be printed or centrally planned; it requires individuals willing to invest creativity, diligence, and courage into innovative products and services demanded by free markets.

In short: the turning point comes when Germany sheds the rotten patina of state control and recommits to bourgeois values of freedom, family, and economic ascent. That is the pivot.

* * *

About the author: Thomas Kolbe is a Gerrman is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 02:00

A Paleoconservative Rips Apart Trump's Venezuela Overthrow

Authored by Terry Cowan via Substack

There is no way to put a pretty face on our most recent regime-change adventure. It is pig-ugly, and not defendable on any level, or from any angle or perspective. The reality of it all is plain to see. The Administration boldfacedly asks, as the old saying goes, Who are you going to believe; me or your lying eyes?. Only a political toad like, say, Prime Minister Keir Starmer, would respond that they needed more information to get the "full picture" before they could possibly comment on America's action against the sovereign government of Venezuela.

I carry no water for the Chavez/Maduro regime. I am about as ambivalent towards the Venezuelan government as a person could be. This is for two reasons: 1) I am not a Cuban-American who, at least politically, are obsessesed with anything even tangentially connected to Castro’s Cuba, and 2) Maduro is their business, not ours-it is for them to sort out. The silly charge of narcoterrorism is the WMD of this generation.

At this point, it is not exactly clear what the Administration has accomplished. The Presidential couple has been surgically extracted from Caracas. The blockade is still in place, but then so is the Venezuelan government under Delcy Rodriquez, who is decidedly off-script. (I do find the tangential side-lining of the the ever-so-eager recent Nobel "Peace" Prize winner to be extremely satisfying. She has learned the hard way what many others before her have so learned. Her support in Venezuela is apparently so minimal that she does not even rise to the level of a useful puppet for Rubio.) I suppose that, in time, we will have a show trial in New York City for the Maduros, its outcome fore-ordained; the very thing we condemned the Soviets for back in the bad old days. But then, this should not be surprising in what I have heard called our "post-Constitutional" age.

I am fascinated by the logistics of this admittedly extraordinary and ruthlessly efficient covert attack. From what I can gather, these forces never engaged the Venezuelan army directly. Maduro relied on 22 Cuban bodyguards and a Security Detail, both operating outside of army channels. The U.S. had an army of covert CIA operatives and assets in Caracas, all trained in the fine art of engineering protests, demonstrations, color revolutions, and regime-change. These spooks were able to bribe his Security Detail. The commandos dropped in, while the Security Detail stood back as they killed the 22 Cubans and extracted the Maduros. The Russians were on the way, but arrived just after the completion of the mission. When they discovered who had been bribed to do this, it is my understanding that he was executed.

And there it is. No need to cue-up Lee Greenwood here. I recently read an accusation against someone as "being against everything this country stands for." That is a loaded statement, to be sure. What does our country stand for anymore? One thing for certain is that we stand for is regime change. Dr. Lindsey O’Rourke’s Covert Regime Change: America’s Secret Cold War documents 70 such regime changes between 1947 and 1989 (excellent interview, here).

Dr. Jeffrey Sachs states that that number is now right at 100, which he characterizes as an addiction, overthrowing countries left and right when we wants something they have: Iraq in 2003, Libya in 2011, Syria in 2011-2025, Ukraine in 2014-present, etc.

As he often does, Dr. Sachs recently addressed the UN Security Council, commenting this time on the situation in Venezuela. A few points:

• The core of the UN Charter is Article 2 Section 4 which upholds the sovereignty of nations.

• The job of the Security Council is not to judge Maduro's fitness as a leader, but to try to offer some protection to countries.

• Sachs then presented the Security Council was a brief outline of recent U.S./Venezuelan history, reminding them that the U.S. had been trying to topple the Chavez/Maduro regime since 2002.

• In 2007, a great tragedy befell Venezuela when it was discovered that they were sitting atop the largest oil reserves in the world.

• In 2014, a CIA/NGO color revolution was attempted.

• In 2015, Obama placed sanctions on Venezuela.

• In 2016, following orders, he declared the country to be a "threat to our national security."

• In 2017, DJT wondered aloud to two Latin American Presidents why he could not just go in and capture Venezuela.

• He was informed of the danger in this, so he upped the sanctions to crush the Venezuelan oil industry. By 2020, production had fallen 75% and personal GDP had collapsed by 65% in Venezuela, according to the IMF.

• And then about the same time, his administration announced that the hitherto unknown Juan Guido was the real President of Venezuela. Many of our European vassal states went along meekly; in fact, you can hear echoes of that in Macron’s reaction now.

• He then asked the Security Council, “Do we have International Law, or do we have anarchy?”

The answer to the last question is pretty obvious. Threats have been made to six countries since the Venezuelan attack: Mexico, Columbia, Denmark, Nigeria, Cuba, and Iran. A great champion of the United Nations, Dr. Sachs claims that it is not dead, but it is on life-support. Any commitment for international law is certainly not coming from us. In fact, we are rushing back to the world of great power politics and spheres of influece, with all that that implies in terms of war and aggression. Dr. Sachs describes the situation as dire, given the nuclear age that we are all lulled into forgetting: being led by a "completely impulsive out of control ill-informed manipulable and manipulative individual atop the Deep State." Dr. Sachs has a fearless aspect to his commentary. May he survive for many years yet.

I was in South America when we attacked Venezuela. I saw coverage on the Asuncion news channels, and spoke briefly to a couple of Paraguayans about it. They shrugged in resignation, and basically said that when America wants something, what can you do? Perhaps someday someone will do something. But in the meantime, I dug a Spanish phrase out of my memory: lo siento.

* * *

Who can buy a government so cheap?
Change a cabinet without a squeak?

...Who can get a budget that's so great?
Who will be the 51st state?

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 23:25

Day 1,419: The Russia-Ukraine Conflict Just Surpassed Soviet War With Nazi Germany

This week has marked another grim milestone in the nearly four-year long Russia-Ukraine war. The conflict has just entered its 1,419th day - which means it has officially surpassed the entirety of the historic Soviet campaign against invading Nazi Germany, which lasted 1,418 days from June 1941 to May 1945.

Red Army forces eventually drove Nazi troops back from the Volga River all the way to Berlin, before seizing the German capital. But in today's war, the 1,419th day is just another in a long one in a tragic and grinding war of attrition, where it is believed each side has lost literally hundreds of thousands.

Source: Cover art from The History of Russia Ukraine War: How Putin & Zelensky reached this stage

Russia definitely has the upper hand and momentum on the battlefield, but it's been a slow and deadly slog, with The Times of London reporting Monday that despite prolonged combat, Russian advances in the Donetsk region amount to roughly 30 miles from their original positions.

Ukraine's armed forces have in large part been propped up by many billions in weapons, training, and funds poured in by NATO and Western backers of Zelensky.

A recent study by the BBC's Russian service and Mediazona - both largely anti-Putin outfits, found that at least 160,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, but the true figure may be significantly higher. It could also be lower, as Western sources have incentive to exaggerate for propaganda purposes (just as Russia would have incentive to underestimate).

At the same time, most international reports and war monitors say Ukraine's casualties could be many times that figure. On both sides, a whole generation of young men is being wiped out.

Efforts to achieve peace by the Trump administration have so far failed, but at least the lines of communications are still open between Washington and Moscow. 

Ukrainian officials have warned that Russian troops are preparing renewed offensives in the north, including areas near the city of Sumy, at a moment the conflict is still only at the legal level of 'special military operation' in the Kremlin's eyes, and not a full state of war which could require societal mobilization.

Over in Ukraine, the war has created the single biggest army in Europe, as recent analysis in The Wall Street Journal detailed: 

When the war with Russia eventually ends, Ukraine will be left with a military larger and with more recent experience than any of its European backers’.

Whether it can outlast Russia’s long-term designs in the event of any peace deal is a question for the entire continent, which now sees Ukraine as a bulwark against Moscow’s ambitions. 

Finding the money and personnel to maintain 800,000 troops and piles of equipment while devising new capabilities will be among the Ukrainian government’s hardest tasks in the immediate aftermath of the war. European Union leaders recently said they would lend Ukraine 90 billion euros, around $105 billion, fending off a looming cash crunch in Kyiv and helping the Ukrainian army keep fighting as Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky compete for President Trump’s ear.

Western leaders have meanwhile constantly reiterated their support for Ukraine while accusing Moscow of dragging out the conflict, and yet few have still recognized that Russia is genuine and legitimate in saying constant NATO expansion has led to this.

Trump has at times hinted he understands Moscow's grievances, but has still seemed to escalate behind the scenes, such as authorizing US intelligence assistance to Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russian territory.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 23:00

Money And Power: Fiat Currency, Monetary Corruption, & The Architecture Of Extraction

Authored by Justin Pak via The Mises Institute,

Money is often described as neutral, technical, or merely instrumental—a passive medium facilitating exchange within an otherwise political society. This view is not only mistaken; it is profoundly misleading. Money is the hidden constitution of every political order. It determines which actions are possible, which institutions survive, which risks are rewarded, and which failures are forgiven. While constitutions proclaim rights and legislatures debate policy, money silently governs outcomes.

For this reason, the structure of a monetary system is never merely economic. It is moral, political, and civilizational.

From the perspective of Austrian and heterodox political economy, the modern fiat monetary system represents not a refinement of earlier monetary forms but a radical departure from them—one whose defining feature is the removal of constraint. Historically, money emerged as a market phenomenon rather than a state creation. Carl Menger demonstrated that money arises organically as the most saleable commodity within an economy, a process driven by voluntary exchange rather than decree. Ludwig von Mises later formalized this insight through the regression theorem, showing that money must originate in a good valued for its non-monetary uses in order to acquire exchange value at all. Gold and silver did not become money because states declared them so; states declared them money because markets already had.

Fiat money reverses this logic. It does not arise from scarcity or market selection but from legal privilege. Its acceptance depends not on earned trust but on enforcement through legal tender laws, taxation, and institutional inertia. What presents itself as sovereign currency is, in practice, state credit circulating as money. This distinction is not semantic. It marks the difference between a system disciplined by external reality and one governed by discretion.

That discretion is concentrated in the institution of central banking. Central banks are often portrayed as neutral guardians of stability, technocratic referees standing above politics. In reality, they function as cartel managers for the financial system, coordinating outcomes that could not survive under competitive conditions. By suppressing interest rates, guaranteeing liquidity, and acting as lenders of last resort, central banks shield privileged institutions from failure while preserving the appearance of market order. Failure is not abolished; it is postponed. And because it is postponed, it accumulates, growing larger and more destructive with each cycle.

This structure produces an inversion of capitalist discipline. In genuine markets, profit and loss serve as signals, rewarding foresight and penalizing error. Under central banking, profits remain private during credit-fueled expansions, while losses are declared systemic during contractions and transferred to the public through bailouts, inflation, and monetary debasement. Risk-taking is rewarded precisely because it is underwritten; prudence is punished through negative real interest rates and competitive disadvantage. Institutions that restrain leverage are displaced by those that exploit it. What remains is not capitalism but state-protected finance, sustained by political necessity rather than economic viability.

The manipulation of interest rates lies at the heart of this transformation. In classical theory, interest rates coordinate time preferences across society, balancing present consumption against future uncertainty. They are prices, emerging from the interaction of savers and borrowers. In modern fiat systems, interest rates are no longer prices at all. They are policy signals, imposed to achieve macroeconomic targets defined by central planners. This substitution of administrative judgment for market coordination creates a profound monetary hierarchy.

Those closest to the source of money creation enjoy the lowest borrowing costs. Sovereign governments finance deficits cheaply, substituting monetary expansion for taxation. Large banks access central liquidity directly. Major corporations issue debt at compressed spreads, insulated from true risk. As one moves farther from the issuance point, costs rise. Small businesses face higher rates and tighter conditions. Households absorb inflation and credit costs simultaneously. Peripheral nations borrow in foreign currencies, exposed to exchange risk they cannot control. Proximity to money creation becomes a determinant of survival. Access replaces productivity as the primary economic advantage.

Because money enters the economy unevenly, monetary expansion always entails political choice. There is no neutral increase in the money supply. Every expansion selects beneficiaries. The era of quantitative easing made this impossible to deny. Liquidity flowed overwhelmingly into financial assets—equities, bonds, and real estate—while wages lagged and productive investment stagnated. This outcome was publicly justified as a “wealth effect,” the belief that rising asset prices would stimulate broader economic activity. In practice, it functioned as asset patronage, enriching those who already owned capital while widening the gap between financial wealth and earned income.

The productive economy increasingly gave way to financial engineering. Growth appeared robust on balance sheets even as real capacity hollowed out. The illusion of prosperity was sustained by rising asset prices rather than rising productivity. What was described as stabilization was, in reality, a redistribution of claims on future output toward those nearest the monetary spigot.

Creation, however, is only one side of the monetary cycle. Fiat systems must also retrieve money, and they do so through inflation, interest, and dependency. Inflation silently erodes savings, punishing deferred consumption and rewarding leverage. Interest extracts future labor, binding individuals to obligations denominated in a currency whose purchasing power is systematically diluted. Debt concentrates ownership, converting missed payments into asset transfers and accelerating consolidation during downturns. Citizens are increasingly compelled to borrow not to expand opportunity but to survive—to obtain housing, education, healthcare, or even the means to start a business. Debt becomes a mechanism of behavioral control. Default becomes a tool of dispossession.

This system depends on opacity for its survival. Modern monetary regimes are deliberately complex. Emergency facilities are disclosed after the fact. Beneficiaries are obscured. Balance sheets are framed as technical artifacts rather than political instruments. Language is abstracted to discourage scrutiny. Inflation becomes “accommodation.” Bailouts become “liquidity support.” As Murray Rothbard observed, complexity functions as camouflage. A system that cannot withstand transparency relies on obscurity to preserve legitimacy.

The corruption of fiat money does not end at national borders; dollar hegemony globalizes it. Because the US dollar functions as the world’s reserve currency, Federal Reserve policy becomes global monetary policy by default. Foreign states must hold dollars to stabilize trade, borrow in dollars to access capital, and absorb the consequences of US monetary decisions over which they have no control. When the Fed eases, capital floods into emerging markets, inflating bubbles and encouraging dollar-denominated debt. When the Fed tightens, currencies collapse, debts become unpayable, and crises erupt. What appears as domestic stabilization at the center manifests as devastation at the periphery.

This arrangement constitutes a form of seigniorage imperialism. The issuing state acquires real goods, labor, and assets in exchange for liabilities it can expand at will. The costs are exported through exchange-rate volatility, debt crises, and externally imposed austerity. Fiat corruption thus scales globally, transforming monetary dominance into an instrument of geopolitical power.

History offers abundant confirmation. From the credit expansion of the 1920s and the deepening of the Great Depression through intervention, to the abandonment of gold convertibility in 1971 and the explosion of debt that followed, to the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath of bailouts and consolidation, the pattern repeats. Each crisis is framed as exceptional. Each intervention becomes precedent. Each rescue increases fragility. The pandemic-era monetary expansion merely accelerated a trajectory already in motion, normalizing levels of creation once reserved for war.

From a Rothbardian perspective, such a system cannot be reformed. Monopoly over money inevitably produces abuse, not because individuals are uniquely corrupt, but because unchecked discretion always is. The problem is not mismanagement; it is structural. Fiat money—insulated from competition and constraint—transforms money from a medium of exchange into an instrument of hierarchy.

A free society cannot rest on a monetary foundation that requires ignorance to function. Constraint is not the enemy of prosperity; it is its precondition. Without it, prices lie, capital misallocates, and responsibility dissolves. Fiat money does not merely finance power. It becomes power. And when money itself is corrupted, everything built upon it follows.

The ultimate question, then, is not how to manage fiat money more skillfully, but whether liberty can coexist with a monetary order insulated from consent, competition, and consequence. History suggests it cannot.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 22:35

Behind The Utter Failure Of Russian Anti-Air Systems In Venezuela

There are reports that during the Trump-ordered military raid on Venezuela to oust and capture President Nicolás Maduro, at least one US helicopter was hit by surface fire or possibly small missile, but the chopper managed to keep flying - with the pilot wounded - and the damaged aircraft made it back from the mission safely.

But this raised the question: what happened to Venezuela's Russian-supplied anti-air defenses, including S-300 and Buk-M2 surface-to-air missile systems purchased in 2009?

While at this point it is well understood that the US military and CIA had help from inside the Venezuelan government - making it essentially a US-backed coup topped off with a special forces nab and grab against Maduro and his wife, there's still the question of whether the entire Venezuelan armed forces were ordered to stand down, or else that their defense systems simply didn't work or were inactive.

S-300VM system, file image

The New York Times says it was actually more the latter scenario - Russian-built air defense systems stationed in Venezuela were mostly inoperable and did not react to the major initial US strikes which paved the way for the ground operation in Caracas.

When American military aircraft entered Venezuelan airspace on Jan. 3, the missile systems were not even linked to radar, according to US officials privy to the mission to The New York Times.

The publication further explained the systems were not integrated with one another and may have actually been unusable for several years. Satellite imagery and photographs further suggest that critical elements of the air defense systems were being kept in storage rather than deployed.

Interestingly the Ukraine war has played a role, after early in the conflict US defense officials said they would support and supply the Zelensky government in order to 'weaken' Russia by bogging it down in a proxy war.

US officials explained to the Times that Venezuela (and presumably other Russian defense allies) has faced ongoing difficulties maintaining its Russian-made air defenses because of limited access to Russian technicians and spare parts - all of which have had to be diverted to support Russia's 'special military operation' in Ukraine.

Much of the initial US strikes appeared to focus on areas where Buk missile systems had been positioned or stored, and locations close to the capital.

"The Venezuelan armed forces were practically unprepared for the U.S. attack," Yaser Trujillo, a military analyst in Venezuela, told The New York Times.

"Their troops were not dispersed, the detection radar was not activated, deployed or operational. It was a chain of errors that allowed the United States to operate with ease, facing a very low threat from the Venezuelan air defense system," Trujillo added.

And a separate source concludes: 

Venezuela’s much-touted antiaircraft systems were essentially not connected when U.S. forces entered the skies over Venezuela’s capital, and they may not have been working for years, former officials and analysts said.

"After years of corruption, poor logistics and sanctions, all those things would have certainly degraded the readiness of Venezuela’s air defense systems," said Richard de la Torre, a former C.I.A. station chief in Venezuela who now runs Tower Strategy, a Washington-based lobbying firm.

The below OSINT account predicted this outcome back in mid-November:

For some context to those who haven’t been following for a while.
This is Venezuelas S-300 system and its storage at Captain Manuel Rios airbase in Guarico.
The missiles for the unit are stored just 100m away from the vehicles in a hangar.#Venezuela https://t.co/ka06CDPnVt pic.twitter.com/PqlCOZurqS

— CNW (@ConflictsW) November 15, 2025

The report throws open another interesting possibility, with two former US officials stating their view that Moscow may have permitted the systems it sold to Venezuela to fall into disrepair in order to avoid escalating tensions with Washington.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 22:10

10 Commandment Displays Became Law In Texas, Then The Lawsuits Came

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Melissa Martin, a veteran Texas educator with some 30 years of experience, was thrilled when the state passed a law in 2025 that required the state’s 9,000 public schools to post the Ten Commandments in classrooms.

Lorne Liechty poses with a copy of the Ten Commandments in Rockwall, Texas, on Jan. 8, 2026. Bobby Sanchez for The Epoch Times

For Martin, it was a bright spot—a swing back toward classical education rooted in Western civilization in an otherwise liberal teaching environment.

Her excitement quickly turned to disappointment at the Houston-based public charter school in which she works.

“I was real surprised when they didn’t jump at putting the Ten Commandments up,” she told The Epoch Times.

​Texas’ Senate Bill 10 has sparked the nation’s largest state-led effort to put the Ten Commandments into schools—and it is facing concerted legal challenges. A hearing on the constitutionality of the new law is scheduled before the Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals this month.

The Ten Commandments, fundamental to both Judaism and Christianity, are credited with influencing Western values and are the basis for laws against killing, theft, adultery, and perjury.

Martin believes public schools have ignored the significance of foundational works such as the Ten Commandments and their role in preserving “our democratic Republic for future generations.”

She said she is retiring this month, fed up in general with a public education system that she feels has failed students.

As a board member of Innovative Teachers of Texas, an alternative to liberal teacher unions, Martin hopes to spend her time establishing a Christian classical school.

Christopher Rhoades, a minister and math teacher in the Alvin Independent School District south of Houston, told The Epoch Times he believes the law is a positive change but worries it could open Pandora’s box.

“I mean, it definitely returns us to a point of values,” he said. “You know, my concern is always with whatever precedent is set. What does it open the door to that I wouldn’t like if someone else was in power?”

Melissa Martin, a veteran educator and board member of Innovative Teachers of Texas, supports displaying the Ten Commandments in classrooms, citing their influence on Western civilization. Courtesy of Jessica Tucker

The law says public schools “shall display” a poster or framed copy of the Ten Commandments in a conspicuous place in each classroom. Schools must accept donated posters that meet the law’s specifications but aren’t required to purchase them.

Critics of the law argue that requiring the Ten Commandments to be hung in every classroom violates the separation of church and state and offers little educational value.

Teacher Rachael Preston testified against the bill in Austin last spring.

“I’m curious about how displaying the Ten Commandments … is relevant enough to the teaching of mathematics to be displayed in a math room,” she told state lawmakers.

Sarah Morrison, who taught in public school for 15 years before becoming a math instructor at Paris Junior College, told The Epoch Times via text that she believes the law is unconstitutional.

“As both a Christian and an educator, I believe that requiring the Ten Commandments goes against the First Amendment of the United States Constitution and treats Christian faith as the state’s preferred religion instead of recognizing the diversity I see in my classroom every day,” she said.

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and its Texas chapter quickly challenged the law by filing two lawsuits. Two federal district judges blocked the 25 school districts named in the lawsuits from displaying the posters.

The civil rights organizations filed a third lawsuit in December 2025. This time, the federal class-action lawsuit names another 16 districts and seeks to block all Texas school districts from displaying the Ten Commandments.

Sarah Morrison, math instructor at Paris Junior College in Texas, said she believes the law requiring the Ten Commandments to be hung in every classroom is unconstitutional. Courtesy of Skyler Wilkins

Legal observers believe the issue will likely end up before the Supreme Court.

A case related to a similar Louisiana law and one of the Texas cases are scheduled to be heard by the full Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Jan. 20, according to the ACLU.

Wider Efforts

The Texas law is part of a larger state effort that has focused on putting God back into schools—a move grassroots conservatives in the red state applaud.

Texas passed a law in 2021 requiring public schools to display the national motto, “In God We Trust.” In late 2024, the Texas State Board of Education approved the “Bluebonnet Learning” curriculum, which integrates Bible stories and Christian values into K-5 language arts lessons.

In the town of Rockwall, just east of Dallas, attorney Lorne Liechty and his family purchased Ten Commandments posters for their local school district, which serves some 19,000 students. The posters were hung in classrooms before the ACLU filed its lawsuit; they now sit in storage as the issue winds its way through the courts.

Liechty, who had two children attend Rockwall schools, said that besides being good rules to live by, the Ten Commandments are foundational to America and its history.

Liechty, also a Rockwall County Commissioner, said prayer was allowed in school until the early 1960s; and he vividly recalls when his third-grade teacher told him it was outlawed.

“The Ten Commandments, Bible verses, and prayer were taken out of the schools,” he told The Epoch Times. “So I had a chance to try and restore them. I wanted to do that.”

Lawsuits Either Way

The Ten Commandments controversy has left some Texas schools in a quandary.

School districts outside Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio were named in the lawsuits and have been forced to remove Ten Commandments posters.

Meanwhile, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sued school districts in Galveston, Leander, and Round Rock for failing to display donated posters.

“America is a Christian nation, and it is imperative that we display the very values and timeless truths that have historically guided the success of our country,” Paxton said in a news release.

North of Houston, Shepherd Independent School District, which serves about 2,000 students, didn’t need an extra push to post the Ten Commandments.

Rebecca Nix, an administrator with Shepherd schools and a former teacher, said the posters have sparked classroom discussions.

“It’s been good fodder for conversation in some of the high school English classes,” she told The Epoch Times.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 21:35